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Draft Lottery Can Change Many Franchises’ Futures

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A lottery it really is this year.

While the NHL draft lottery always garners quite a bit of attention, some years are just a bit different if the top pick is a game-changer, whether you’re talking about Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews or this year’s No. 1 option. With prospect Rasmus Dahlin listed as the consensus top pick this year, and described by many as having no weaknesses, he is considered to be one of the top defensive prospects to enter the league in possible decades. The 18-year-old defenseman out of Sweden should immediately change the state of any franchise that wins tonight.

With the lottery just hours away, how will each club look if they were to get lucky and win it?

Buffalo Sabres (18.5%) — The Sabres franchise would get a huge boost with the addition of Dahlin plus some badly needed luck that they seem to never have. Already boasting one of the worst defenses in the league and sudden talk that the team shouldn’t consider Rasmus Ristolainen a No. 1 defenseman, the team and general manager Jason Botterrill’s job would get much easier if they can win the lottery.

Ottawa Senators (13.5%) — Winning the lottery should make their tough decision easier as they traded away their top pick in the Matt Duchene trade, which is, fortunately for them, top-three protected. Winning the lottery is a no-brainer as they would take Dahlin who could either join star defenseman Erik Karlsson or allow the team to trade the veteran, knowing they already have his replacement. However, the real issue is they end up in the top three, do they keep the pick or send it to Colorado to avoid giving Colorado an unprotected first-rounder in 2019.

Arizona Coyotes (11.5%) — Despite having the third-worst record in the league this year, the Coyotes seem to be heading in the right direction as they went 19-12-4 in their final 35 games of the season as many of the team’s young players had started to figure things out. What better way to improve on that then to add Dahlin, who could convince fellow countryman Oliver Ekman-Larsson to stay on with the team for many years to come.

Montreal Canadiens (9.5%) — With the injury struggles of aging defenseman Shea Weber and little else defensive help nearby, the team could use the infusion of a franchise-changing defenseman joining the team. With Weber and goaltender Carey Price on huge contracts, a cheap franchise player could move the team in the right direction.

Detroit Red Wings (8.5%) — What better way to finally start the rebuild, then by adding a young, talented defender to join the team. With few defensive prospects on the horizon, the team’s suspect defense could get a huge boost with Dahlin. With the return of Mike Green unknown, and a group of aging veterans, the team needs someone to take over as the face of the franchise.

Vancouver Canucks (7.5%) — The Canucks rebuild is looking better and better with players like Adam Gaudette, Elias Pettersson, Jonathan Dahlen and defenseman Olli Juolevi about to arrive. Throw in Brock Boeser, Bo Horvat and a number of other prospects on the way, Dahlin would only quicken this team’s rise of young players. On top of that, the team is loaded with defensive-minded blueliners and could use an offensive power-play quarterback.

Chicago Blackhawks (6.5%) — While a lottery victory by the Blackhawks might infuriate the rest of the league, the Blackhawks do need to bolster their defensive depth and Dahlin could easily vault a struggling team back into the playoffs as he could take a lot of pressure off veterans Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook.

New York Rangers (6%) — Just started a rebuild and they walk away with a generational talent? While many people believe the Rangers intend to have a quick rebuild and compete for a playoff spot within the next year or two, having Dahlin on the roster would only jettison the team to that goal quicker and putting him alongside Brady Skjei and Neal Pionk along with veteran Kevin Shattenkirk would help stabilize their blueline.

New York Islanders (6% total with 3.5% from their pick and Calgary’s 2.5%) — Perhaps winning the lottery would be enough to convince John Tavares to stay. Regardless, adding Dahlin to their defensive woes would only stabilize a team that has the offense to reach the playoffs. He could be a cornerstone the franchise hasn’t had there since Denis Potvin. Add in the fact that the Islanders also have the Calgary Flames’ pick, the team has a better chance to winning the lottery than quite a few teams.

Edmonton Oilers (5%) — Angry fans might protest Edmonton walking away as another lottery winner, but adding Dahlin to, again, a failing defense would allow a team that already has McDavid and Leon Draisaitl should bounce back to where they left off one year ago. Dahlin would provide the team with the No. 1 defenseman that they currently lack

Carolina Hurricanes (3%) — As the percentage begin to really drop, Carolina would only get richer as the team is already loaded in quality young defensemen and would allow the team to move other defenseman like Justin Faulk and acquire more scoring, which the team badly needs.

Dallas Stars (2%) — The addition of Dahlin along with last year’s third overall pick in Finnish defenseman Miro Heiskanen would make for a deadly combo and that’s not including John Klingberg.

Philadelphia Flyers (1.5% from St. Louis Blues) — Adding Dahlin could put Philadelphia at the same level with Pittsburgh, Washington and Tampa Bay.

Florida Panthers (1%) — The hottest team that didn’t make the playoffs would get a much needed boost if they could hit that 1/100 chance.

 

 

Metropolitan Notes: Rangers, Boychuk, Pulock, Ward, Kempny

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With the New York Rangers being the first team in almost a year to be looking for a head coach after firing Alain Vigneault Saturday evening, the team has said it will commence with their search immediately. The team must decide whether they are looking for a big name coach, a up-and-coming coach or a coach that is good at working with young players.

The New York Post’s Larry Brooks offers 10 potential candidates to replace Vigneault, leading those suggestions with three collegiate coaches, including the University of Denver’s Jim Montgomery, Boston University’s David Quinn and Union College’s Rick Bennett. He also suggests Toronto Marlies coach Sheldon Keefe of the AHL would be a good fit.

According to Brooks, there are also several veteran NHL coaches available, including Dan Bylsma, Darryl Sutter, Dave Tippett and Patrick Roy.

  • Andrew Gross of Newsday reports that veteran defenseman Johnny Boychuk will undergo surgery Monday, but would not reveal what it is for. The 34-year-old defenseman missed quite some time this season, playing in just 58 games this season. He is expected to be 100 percent by June.
  • Arthur Staple of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that while little has gone right this year, one bright spot has been the strong finish of rookie defenseman Ryan Pulock. The 23-year-old blueliner finished with 10 goals, most in the NHL for rookie defensemen. His 18:24 of average ice time was second among rookie defensemen behind Boston’s Charlie McAvoy. Staple suggests that his improvement on the defensive end could potentially make him a top-pairing defenseman.
  • The Charlotte Observer’s Chip Alexander wonders what will happen to long-time goaltender Cam Ward now that the season is over. The veteran goalie who has spent 13 years with the organization will be an unrestricted free agent this offseason and at 34 years old, the team must decide whether they want to bring him back or go in a different direction. Despite taking a backup role this year, Ward still played in 43 games and finished with a 2.78 GAA and a .906 save percentage as he had to fill in for a struggling Scott Darling. Of course, with no general manager in place yet, it might be a while before the team sorts that out.
  • After going out a year ago and trading for star defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk and then being eliminated in the first round, the Washington Capitals have taken the opposite course this year, quietly trading for Michal Kempny from the Chicago Blackhawks. While hardly a headlining defenseman, Kempny has been a good fit with Washington and has changed their defense for the better, according to Washington Post’s Isabelle Khurshudyan. Kempny, who was often a healthy scratch for Chicago has filled in as a top-four defenseman and is averaging 16:46 per game. As the team prepares for a matchup with the Columbus Blue Jackets in the first round of the playoffs, they hope the improvement of their defense might help them with a long playoff run.

New York Rangers Fire Coach Alain Vigneault

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Hours after putting up an egg in their 5-0 loss to the Philadelphia Flyers on Saturday, the New York Rangers fired their head coach Alain Vigneault after five years. After four playoff appearances, the Rangers struggled, finishing 34-39-9 on the season. In all, however, Vigneault had quite a bit of success in his time in New York, which included taking the Rangers to the Stanley Cup Finals in 2013-14, his first season with the team. He led the team to a 226-147-37 record over the five years.

The firing also came after Vigneault himself stated in his post-game press conference that he deserved to stay and defended his record, according to Newsday’s Colin Stephenson.

“Yes, yes. Without a doubt,’’ he said when asked if he thought he would hold on to his job despite the Rangers’ 34-39-9 record, which caused them to miss the playoffs for only the second time since the NHL lockout that canceled the 2004-05 season. “I think my staff is the right staff for this job. I think — and this is just my opinion — but I think one of the strongest assets of this organization is its coaching staff and their experience.’’

Some of Vigneault’s struggles were not his doing as the Rangers decided to rebuild on the fly, sending out a letter on Feb. 7, telling fans about their decision to rebuild the team. The Rangers followed that by selling off several veterans including Michael Grabner, Rick Nash, Nick Holden, J.T. Miller and captain Ryan McDonah.

However, Stephenson also points out several issues that came up this season that forced the Rangers to head in that direction. After re-designing its defense with the acquisitions of star free agent Kevin Shattenkirk and re-signing Brendan Smith, the team was hoping to possess one of the best defenses in the league. Instead, the team started slowly at 1-6-2 in its first nine games and was 3-7-2 after 12 in which Vigneault almost lost his job. The team was able to right the ship after that, but only because of the impressive play of both the team’s goaltenders in Henrik Lundqvist and Ondrej Pavelec. Neither goalie was able to sustain their great play.

Injuries also played a part. Shattenkirk was playing hurt, while Smith came into camp out of shape and never returned to form before eventually being sent down to the AHL. Winger Chris Kreider missed 24 games due to a blood clot that led to surgery on his ribs. Center Mika Zibanejad missed nine games with a concussion, while Shattenkirk had knee surgery in January and never came back.

The Athletic’s Rick Carpiniello writes (subscription required) that there were other reasons as well that stand out when it came to Vigneault. The coach’s lack of success at the blueline have been issues for years as his system had failed repeatedly. Vigneault had undergone three different defensive assistant coaches in three years, including Ulf Samuelsson, Jeff Beukeboom and Lindy Ruff and replaced most of the defense and still failed to get them going. His tough love was also an issue as he butted heads with many players, especially Miller and Pavel Buchnevich. However, the most telling numbers is the team’s record from Jan. 7 to Feb. 25, when Vigneault led the team to just a 5-16-1 record.

Vigneault has a 648-435-98 overall record throughout his career with the Montreal Canadiens, Vancouver Canucks and the Rangers. He won the Jack Adams Award as Coach of the Year in 2007.

TSN’s Bob McKenzie was the first to report the news.

Snapshots: Interference, Minnesota, Defensemen

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The change in decision making on goaltender interference challenges has been approved, and will go into effect for tomorrow’s games. The final decision will now lie with the situation room, which will now include a retired official. According to Mark Spector of Sportsnet, the officials who will be on hand in the situation room will be a rotation of Don Van Massenhoven, Rob Shick, Bill McCreary, Paul Devorski and Stephen Walkom.

The interference rule has been the target of much frustration this season from coaches, players and fans alike, as there seemed to be no level of consistency in the decisions. That will hopefully improve under this new process, as the decisions will be handled by a much smaller group of people.

  • After long-time head coach Don Lucia stepped down from his position at the University of Minnesota, it wasn’t clear who would be taking his place. We won’t have to wait any longer to find out, as the program announced that Bob Motzko would take over the duties after a 13-year stint with St. Cloud State. Motzko was an assistant with Minnesota when they won back-to-back National Championships in 2002 and 2003, and has built St. Cloud State into one of the most successful programs in the country. It will be interesting to see what this means for players like Jimmy Schuldt and Ryan Poehling, who both could decide to turn pro and leave St. Cloud State early.
  • Shea Weber is healing faster than expected, and shouldn’t miss much of his offseason training after undergoing foot surgery earlier this month. Weber spoke to the media today, and admitted that he’d been playing through injury for most of the season just to try and help the team. The 32-year old defenseman should be ready for the start of the Montreal Canadiens training camp in a few months.
  • Though it doesn’t come as much of a surprise, both Chris Tanev and Kevin Shattenkirk will not return this season for their respective teams. With just a handful of games left, there is no reason to rush back either defenseman from injury since both the Vancouver Canucks and New York Rangers are out of the playoff race.

Retired Official To Join Situation Room For Goaltender Interference Reviews

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7:30PM: The NHLPA has worked quickly to review the proposed changes. The Competition Committee announced this evening that they have approved the “NHL General Managers Recommended Change to Rule 78.7(ii) Governing Coach’s Challenges for Goaltender Interference”. The Committee, made up of members Mike Cammalleri, Ron Hainsey, Kevin Shattenkirk, Cory Schneider and Daniel Winnik, was joined by other players in making this decision. Players’ Association executive and long-time NHLer Mathieu Schneider stressed that “first and foremost, the players want consistency in the application of the rule”. The last remaining step in the process is for the recommendation to be approved by the NHL’s Board of Governors. At this rate, the rule change could be made by the end of the week.

10:30AM: The league knew something had to be done about the goaltender interference problem, and today at the GMs meetings in Florida Gary Bettman announced that a retired official will join the situation room in Toronto to determine the call on interference reviews. This announcement, as reported by several sources including Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet, comes pending approval from the Competition Committee and Board of Governors.

Though the league demonstrated that there hasn’t been considerably more challenges this season than those the last few years, the decisions have come under much greater scrutiny. Weekly there is a decision that is met with ire from fans of a certain team, and coverage was only increased when the league admitted they would be instructing their officials to call things differently after the All-Star break.

Now things seem to be taken out of the on-ice officials’ hands, as the league will make the decisions themselves—though one can suspect they will consult the game referees. Still, theoretically it should provide some more consistency to the calls at the very least. As Darren Dreger of TSN points out, the league could eventually move to the same system they have for offside reviews, in which a team receives a minor penalty if they challenge and get it wrong.

Frank Seravalli of TSN believes that the six referee supervisors will be the ones who rotate through the situation room, listing Don Koharski, Paul Devorski, Rob Shick, Mick McGeough and Don Van Massenhoven as potential options, while Greg Wyshynski of ESPN adds Bill McCreary and Director of Officiating Stephen Walkom.

Capitals Extend GM Brian MacLellan; No Word On Barry Trotz

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March 9th: The Capitals have officially confirmed the extension to Tom Gulitti of NHL.com.

March 4th: The Washington Capitals have signed general manager Brian MacLellan to a multi-year contract extension Saturday, according to Sportsnet’s Nick Kypreos. The next question is whether the team will extend head coach Barry Trotz as the coach is in the final year of his contract.

MacLellan has worked his way up the ladder with the Capitals having served as an assistant general manager for seven years with the organization before taking over general manager duties in 2014. While in charge, his teams have reached 100 points three consecutive years. The team’s lone issue has been its struggles in the playoffs as the team has failed to get out of the second round in each of those years.

Even this year, the Capitals are atop the Metropolitan Division this year with 81 points, despite losing a number of players due to their salary cap issues this year. The team lost several key players in the offseason, including defenseman Karl Alzner, Kevin Shattenkirk, Nate Schmidt as well as forwards Justin Williams, Marcus Johansson. Yet the team has continued to succeed with younger players and some veteran additions.

As for Trotz, there are questions whether the Capitals may move on from the veteran coach. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman added on Saturday night’s Headlines segment on Hockey Night in Canada that the team might consider promoting assistant coach Todd Reirden. In the past, other teams have asked to interview Reirden for coaching jobs, including the Arizona Coyotes, Buffalo Sabres and the Florida Panthers.

“It’s gotten to the point where if he’s not signed soon … other teams are going to come out looking for him perhaps,” said Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston during Saturday night’s Headlines segment. “Barry’s future in Washington is very much uncertain.”

Spending Potential: New Jersey’s Free Agency Possibilities

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When last offseason finally rolled around, and the free agent market was about to open, there was one name that clearly led the group. That was Kevin Shattenkirk, considered the only true top-end player available in an otherwise uninspiring group.  The New Jersey Devils were rumored to be interested, as they had huge amounts of cap space and an obvious need on defense. Add in that Shattenkirk wanted to play in the northeast and there seemed to be a nice match.

The Devils did go after Shattenkirk, but ended up missing out when the free agent defenseman signed with the New York Rangers, always his first choice. Speaking to Chris Ryan of NJ.com, Devils’ GM Ray Shero explained as much:

In the end, he grew up a Ranger fan. And I’m pretty sure if the Rangers were capped out or the Rangers weren’t interested, he’d probably be here, on the right type of contract for the right reasons. But you know what? I respect the process, I like Kevin as a person, he’s a good player, and that’s where it goes.

Ultimately, it may have worked out better for the Devils in the long run. Shattenkirk has been a mild disappointment in New York, struggling through injury and inconsistency in his first season on a team that is now starting a rebuild. The 29-year old has three more seasons on his deal with the Rangers, but might not be in a playoff run the whole time depending on how bare the Rangers’ front office strips the roster.

In New Jersey, they found their defensive help in Sami Vatanen after sending Adam Henrique to the Anaheim Ducks, and have taken a huge step forward in the standings. Already six points ahead of their total from 2016-17 with 15 games remaining, New Jersey is in position to return to the playoffs for the first time since losing in the Stanley Cup Final in 2012. They bought at the deadline for the first time in a while, adding Patrick Maroon and Michael Grabner to their young group up front. They also find themselves in another envious position heading into the offseason.

With Maroon, Grabner, Drew Stafford, John Moore and others coming off the books as unrestricted free agents, and Ryane Clowe’s contract finally expiring, the Devils project to have somewhere around $25MM in cap space depending on where the ceiling lands. Though they have to think about potential long-term deals for some of their young players down the road, 2018-19 doesn’t come with many of those decisions.

Miles Wood will be a restricted free agent this summer, and has shown enough in his second season to demand a substantial raise on his entry-level contract. But with just 44 points in 125 games, he’s hardly in a position to demand a huge cap hit. Any long-term deal with Wood would likely come at a relatively low salary, as he doesn’t even have arbitration rights yet.

Any of the aforementioned unrestricted free agents could be brought back, and Brian Gibbons will definitely get some consideration after something of a breakout first half. Gibbons has 23 points in 45 games during a season broken by injury, and could be signed to an inexpensive free agent contract if he decides to stick around.

Other than that, the Devils are free to pursue some of the more interesting names on the market this season. A quick look at our Midseason UFA Power Rankings shows a number of players who could dramatically improve the Devils attack, and give Taylor Hall some more support offensively. Talented wingers like James van Riemsdyk, James Neal and Evander Kane all remain unsigned, while there are several useful defensemen on the market who could strengthen the Devils blue line even further.

The Devils have just four players signed for three or more seasons after 2017-18, giving Shero ample flexibility to construct the team how he wants. After winning the draft lottery and seeing breakout rookie performances from Nico Hischier, Will Butcher and Jesper Bratt, New Jersey looks to be in as good a position as possible heading into the playoffs. Though any postseason games will surely be exciting for their fans, the months following may bring even more fireworks.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Zach Sanford Activated Off Injured Reserve

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The St. Louis Blues are among those looking for help at the trade deadline, but they may just have found it from an internal source. Zach Sanford, the prospect included in last season’s Kevin Shattenkirk deal, has been activated off injured reserve and assigned to the San Antonio Rampage. Sanford hadn’t played yet this season as he worked his way back from a shoulder injury. Though he’s headed to San Antonio to make his season debut, he could be an option for the Blues down the stretch if he proves healthy and ready to contribute.

The 23-year old forward played 13 games for the Blues last season after the trade, registering five points and generally looking capable of making an impact in bottom-six. Though he suited up for just four playoff contests, he could find himself in the lineup with more frequency this time around. Sanford is a big body at 6’4″ and gives the team another option on the left side as they make their final push towards the playoffs.

Rangers’ Ondrej Pavelec Out 2-3 Weeks

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The New York Rangers will be without their backup goaltender Ondrej Pavelec, who sprained his MCL and will be out for two to three weeks, according to Justin Tasch of the Daily News. The injury happened during Friday’s game against the Calgary Flames when the 30-year-old goaltender was forced to leave during the first period of the game.

The injury is just another one of many for the Rangers, who have been decimated by them. The team already is without winger Chris Kreider (rib resection), defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk (meniscus surgery), Pavel Buchnevich (concussion), Marc Staal (cervical strain). Defenseman Ryan McDonagh is also out with an upper-body injury. Winger Jimmy Vesey has also missed some time, but is expected to play today.

Pavelec has struggled at times with the Rangers as he has a 3.01 GAA in 16 appearances and a .910 save percentage. He did, however, have a dominant streak between Oct. 26 and Jan. 7 in which he had a 2.27 GAA and a .937 save percentage. The recalled Alexander Georgiev from the Hartford Wolf Pack of the AHL Saturday. The 22-year-old has been hot recently there with an 8-0-1 record and a 1.76 GAA in his last nine starts.

Morning Notes: Maple Leafs, Rangers, Prospects

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The Toronto Maple Leafs are comfortably in a playoff spot in the Atlantic Division, sitting fifteen points up on the Florida Panthers. As they try to catch Boston or Tampa Bay down the stretch for home ice advantage, head coach Mike Babcock clearly wants some help at the trade deadline. As Chris Johnston of Sportsnet reports, Babcock has let “the people who need to know, know” what he’d like to see added.

In his latest 31 Thoughts column for Sportsnet, Elliotte Friedman mentions three names on the Maple Leafs that could easily be removed in the next few weeks instead. Josh Leivo, who has asked for a trade after being passed over again for playing time, Nikita Soshnikov, who will force the Maple Leafs into a roster move once he completes his conditioning stint, and Matt Martin. Martin has two more years on his contract at $2.5MM per season, but hasn’t been able to crack the lineup recently and could be moved to create some roster flexibility.

  • As the New York Rangers prepare to sell off some assets at the trade deadline, they got some good news on the injury front today. While Marc Staal was absent from practice due to a neck injury, Jimmy Vesey (concussion), Pavel Buchnevich (concussion) and Chris Kreider (blood clot) all skated. Kevin Shattenkirk, who underwent knee surgery a few weeks ago, is now off crutches. Amazingly, the Rangers are still just three points out of a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, and with some returning players and new blood there is no telling what could happen in the latter part of the season.
  • Craig Button and TSN have released their ranking of the top-50 prospects that have already been drafted, with Elias Pettersson coming in at the very top. The Vancouver Canucks first-round pick has been arguably the best player in the SHL this season with 45 points through 35 games and looks poised to make an impact in North America as soon as next season. Beyond that is Eeli Tolvanen at #2, despite falling nearly out of the first round entirely last June. Tolvanen turned a disappointing decision at Boston College into an opportunity, and has broken nearly every record for an 18-year old player in the KHL. The entire list is interesting, and is quite different than Corey Pronman’s ranking at The Athletic (subscription required) which had Casey Mittelstadt in the top spot.

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