Expansion Primer: Carolina Hurricanes
Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.
Going into the 2016-17 season, more people thought that the Carolina Hurricanes would be the worst team in the NHL than thought they would be a playoff team. Yet, the exciting, young ‘Canes squad stayed in it until the end, only falling out of playoff contention in the final few games of the season. It was a completely unexpected performance from a team still lacking any major stars, but showed that their youthful nucleus can succeed without them.
Luckily for Carolina fans, perhaps no team in the NHL has a better chance of escaping the upcoming Expansion Draft unscathed than the Hurricanes. Not only does the teams youth protect many of their best players from being draft-eligible, but the team is in fact so young, that there are very few players total that can be exposed. With the league’s deepest young defense almost entirely intact with Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, Noah Hanifin and pro prospects Haydn Fleury and Roland McKeown ineligible – each with two or fewer NHL seasons – and star rookie Sebastian Aho also immune, the Hurricanes can use the rest of their protection slots to cover all their other important players and then some.
Eligible Players (Non-UFA)
Forwards
Jordan Staal (NMC), Jeff Skinner, Victor Rask, Elias Lindholm, Lee Stempniak, Joakim Nordstrom, Andrej Nestrasil, Teuvo Teravainen, Erik Karlsson, Phillip Di Giuseppe, Brock McGinn
Defense
Justin Faulk, Klas Dahlbeck, Ryan Murphy, Trevor Carrick
Goaltender
Scott Darling, Cam Ward, Eddie Lack, Daniel Altshuller
Notable Exemptions
Sebastian Aho, Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, Noah Hanifin, Haydn Fleury, Roland McKeown, Derek Ryan
Key Decisions
The ‘Canes have few decisions to make here. Up front, captain Jordan Staal must be protected due to his No-Movement Clause and his supporting cast of young scorers – Jeff Skinner, Victor Rask, Elias Lindholm, and Teuvo Teravainen – will surely join him. With 16 points in 57 games in 2016-17, 22-year-old Brock McGinn has also likely earned his spot on the team. This leaves one forward spot spot left, as Carolina will almost certainly use the 7/3 protection scheme. The odd men out will probably be consummate veteran Lee Stempniak and two-way forward Joakim Nordstrom, who took a step back this season anyway. Those two are the only remaining players that meet the two-forward exposure quota of players with 70 games played over the past two years or 40 games played this past season that also have term remaining on their contracts. Should the Hurricanes want to protect either one, they still have the option of extending restricted free agents Andrej Nestrasil or Phillip Di Giuseppe or impending UFA Jay McClement in the coming weeks, as the trio are only short on term to qualify for the quota. If they choose not to, the choice comes down to Nestrasil, Di Giuseppe, or minor league winger Erik Karlsson for the final spot, with little on the line.
On the blue line the choice is even easier. By re-signing Klas Dahlbeck recently, the Hurricanes secured their sacrificial lamb for Expansion. Dahlbeck qualifies to be exposed in accordance with the quota for one defenseman, taking All-Star Justin Faulk off the hook. Young defenseman Ryan Murphy and Trevor Carrick are literally the only other defenseman in need of protection with exactly two defensive spots open to do so.
In net, the decision has already been made. The Hurricanes secured their goalie of the future earlier this month, trading for former Chicago Blackhawks backup Scott Darling and giving him a four-year, $16.6MM deal. In doing so, Carolina also guaranteed that he would be their protected goalie in the draft, as they would not waste their time with such an investment just to let Darling be drafted away to Vegas. Instead, they’ll let the Golden Knights have their pick of long-time starter Cam Ward, high-end backup Eddie Lack, and prospect keeper Daniel Altshuller. With over $10MM tied up in Darling, Ward, and Lack next season, the Hurricanes hope the Knights take the bait, but even if they don’t, both Ward and Lack will be free agents next summer anyway.
Projected Protection List
Scheme: 7F/3D/1G
Forwards
Jordan Staal (NMC)
Jeff Skinner
Victor Rask
Elias Lindholm
Teuvo Teravainen
Brock McGinn
Phillip Di Giuseppe
Defensemen
Justin Faulk
Ryan Murphy
Trevor Carrick
Goalie
What is the worst case scenario for the Hurricanes? They could lose Stempniak and be left with over $10MM in goalies. That’s pretty much it. Yes, Stempniak scored 40 points last season, but he’s also 33 years old and has just one year left on his contract. The Hurricanes could replace him in free agency with ease. They also could simply re-sign another forward and protect him if they really want to. As for the goalie, Ward is a lifetime Hurricane and outplayed Lack by a slim margin last year. It really would not be all that bad to have him as a backup to first-time starter Darling next season. GM Ron Francis could surely sweeten a deal (if necessary) to have Vegas take Lack and, if not, should be able to find another suitor elsewhere.
If Stempniak does end up off the board though, is there really any other option for the Knights beyond goalie? At forward, Di Giuseppe gets the nod for the last protection slot over Nestrasil and Karlsson. Nestrasil is already on the outs in Carolina and Di Giuseppe has already passed him up on the depth chart. Karlsson has signed on to return to Sweden next season and will have no impact on the 2017-18 Hurricanes. Carolina is deep enough in prospects, such as Julien Gauthier, Nicolas Roy, Janne Kuokkanen, Warren Foegele, Aleksi Saarela and more that they can risk losing Karlsson without risking losing any sleep over it. On defense, Dahlbeck is the only contracted player that can be taken. While he did play in 43 games with Carolina last season, GM George McPhee will have plenty of quality defenseman to choose from in the Expansion Draft, and Dahlbeck simply doesn’t stand out as worth taking. The Hurricanes are so well protected from the wrath of the expansion process that even unrestricted free agent center Derek Ryan, who quietly put up 29 points in 2016-17 to the tune of $600K, is also exempt from selection, having come over from Europe just two years ago. Goalie seems to be the only real option and even if Altshuller is the pick, he is far from a promising prospect and not at the top of the Hurricanes’ prospect rankings in net. The Knights have few options when selecting a player from Carolina and none of them pose any threat to a team that is on the rise.
Expansion Draft Issues: Post-Trade Deadline
Last month, we looked at several teams facing some tough situations in regards to the upcoming NHL Expansion Draft and offered potential solutions to how they could address their needs for forwards, defensemen and goalies at the NHL Trade Deadline. With March 1st over and done with, many of those squads have solved their problems with signings or acquisitions.
Calgary Flames
Problem: Defense
Status: Solved
The Flames solved their problem of otherwise having to expose Mark Giordano, T.J. Brodie, or Dougie Hamilton with the ingenious signing of Matt Bartkowski, the only defenseman on the planet who was both free to acquire and automatically eligible for exposure in the draft. It’s a good thing they signed him too, since they ended up trading away their best fall-back option, young defenseman Jyrki Jokipakka.
Carolina Hurricanes
Problem: Defense
Status: Unsolved
It was a pretty quiet deadline in Raleigh, as the ‘Canes shipped out Ron Hainsey and Viktor Stalberg and then called it a day. What they didn’t do was acquire another body on the blue line to help solve their lack of a defenseman to expose. Carolina is still facing the problem of All-Star Justin Faulk being the only defenseman on the roster currently meeting the criteria for mandated exposure, due to the majority of their defensemen being too young to be eligible altogether. There is no way that Faulk is there for the taking by Vegas, but GM Ron Francis is left with only two choices: extend impending RFA Klas Dahlbeck or extend impending UFA Matt Tennyson and make sure he plays in seven more games this season, as he’s currently short of the 40-game mark.
Snapshots: Carter, Crawford, Faulk
The Minnesota Wild have signed forward Ryan Carter to a one-year, two-way contract, according to Michael Russo of the Star Tribune. The deal is worth a pro-rated $575K at the NHL level and $250K in the AHL.
Carter had major shoulder surgery in October to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder. Many believed this was it for the 33-year-old left winger due to his age and the seriousness of his injury. Carter has been skating with the Wild for the better part of a month, and told Dane Mizutani of TwinCities.com that he couldn’t give up his career without at least trying to come back.
“I wanted to be a part of it, and for awhile it hurt a little bit that I wasn’t a part of it. It’s good to be here now.”
Carter was reportedly in talks with the Wild for the past month, and last week signed a Professional Try-Out (PTO) with the Iowa Wild of the AHL. He is without a point in three appearances with the AHL club.
In a related news item, the Wild have recalled center Zac Dalpe from Iowa. The big forward has three points in nine games with the Wild this season, and two goals in 12 games with their AHL affiliate.
- The Chicago Blackhawks will be without starting goaltender Corey Crawford when they take on the St. Louis Blues this afternoon, according to Chris Kuc of the Chicago Tribune. Crawford is battling an illness and won’t be able to dress. Coach Joel Quenneville told the media that Crawford does not have the mumps. Chris Hine, also from the Tribune, quoted Quenneville as saying that Lars Johansson will likely get the emergency call up from Rockford to backup Scott Darling.
- The venerable Postmedia reporter Jim Matheson reported that Hurricanes defenseman Justin Faulk is in play at the trade deadline. Faulk is having a poor year with 25 points (just one assist in his last six games), but has a history of being a point-producing defenseman. Matheson cites the play of Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, and Noah Hanifin as the reason that Faulk is on the market. The Hurricanes would be need a young center in return, Matheson believes. Despite the fact that plenty of teams would be interested in Faulk even though he’s having a poor season, any potential deal may have to wait until after the season; Faulk makes $4.83MM and has three years left on his contract after this season.
Deadline Primer: Carolina Hurricanes
With the trade deadline now just a week away, we continue to take a closer look at each team. Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs?
If the Carolina Hurricanes as deadline sellers wasn’t a foregone conclusion before, it is now after today’s trade of Ron Hainsey to the Pittsburgh Penguins. Although Hainsey, who will finally get to play in the first postseason game of his 14-year NHL career, was a candidate to be traded regardless, the move is even less surprising given Carolina’s recent performance. After shocking many who believed they could be one of the worst teams in the NHL this season with a strong first half, the wheels have fallen off in Carolina since the calendar flipped to 2017. The Hurricanes are just 8-11-1 in the new year and haven’t had a regulation win since February 3rd. Facing an uphill battle as it was in the powerhouse Metropolitan Division, it didn’t help that Carolina was unable to get consistent play and fell from a playoff spot into the basement of the Eastern Conference in short order.
The ‘Canes are loaded with talented young defensemen and some great young depth up front as well. They also hold a king’s ransom in draft picks and have an inordinate amount of cap space going into next season. There’s good reason behind the rumors connecting them to big-ticket trade bait like the Colorado Avalanche’s Matt Duchene and Gabriel Landeskog. However, deals of that magnitude typically occur in the off-season. Don’t expect any different this year. The Hainsey trade either signals the beginning of a small-scale fire sale or potentially could be the only move for the Carolina at the deadline.
Record
24–24–8, last in the Metropolitan Division/Eastern Conference
Deadline Status
Seller
Deadline Cap Space
Current Cap Space: $63,619,668
Deadline Cap Space: $71,572,127
46/50 contracts, via CapFriendly
Draft Picks
2017: CAR 1st, CAR 2nd, NYR 2nd, PIT 2nd, CAR 3rd, conditional NJ 3rd, CAR 4th, BOS 5th, CAR 6th, CAR 7th
2018: CAR 1st, CAR 2nd, CAR 3rd, CAR 4th, CAR 5th, CAR 6th, CAR 7th
Trade Chips
Carolina’s best trade chip at the deadline was Ron Hainsey and GM Ron Francis did a great job in getting a strong return for the defenseman in a second-round pick and a prospect. Hurricanes fans should be happy about that haul, because that may be all they get. The reason that the Hainsey trade may be the only move that the ‘Canes make at the deadline is because they lack a wealth of attractive veterans on expiring contracts. Among their impending free agents are Viktor Stalberg, Jay McClement, and Matt Tennyson and it’s doubtful that any of that trio have drawn much interest around the league. Stalberg and McClement have just 17 points combined despite playing in nearly every game and Tennyson is hardly even an NHL-caliber player. The one outlier is Derek Ryan. Seemingly out of nowhere, Ryan has finally developed into an NHL regular in Carolina at the age of 30 and would cost almost nothing against the cap with a salary of just $600K (about a $125K pro-rated cap hit on March 1st). For cap-strapped contenders facing difficulties adding players, Ryan could be very attractive as a bottom-six depth forward. He has eight goals and ten assists in 42 games and has shown some versatility within the lineup. However, are the Hurricanes willing to let their diamond in the rough go that easily? Unless Ron Francis is given a fair-value offer, he may look to bring back Ryan for next season instead as a nice complementary player.
Players To Watch
F Derek Ryan, F Viktor Stalberg, F Jay McClement, D Matt Tennyson, F Andrej Nestrasil
Team Needs
1) Franchise Forward – The rebuild in Carolina has been much faster and more successful than anyone could have expected and the organization has put together a solid young core of forwards and defensemen. The list of impact starters age 24 or younger is unreal: Jeff Skinner, Victor Rask, Elias Lindholm, Teuvo Teravainen, Justin Faulk, Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, Noah Hanifin and more. That doesn’t even include top prospects on the blue line like Jake Bean, Haydn Fleury, and Roland McKeown, 2016 first-round forward Julien Gauthier, and a near-guaranteed top-five pick this June. It’s an embarrassment of riches in the youth department in Raleigh, but if the ‘Canes want to climb the ranks of the Metropolitan, they need to move some young pieces to add a top forward. Not just a nice top-six player either; a star scorer. Colorado’s Duchene or Landeskog have specifically been mentioned, while Jordan Eberle, James van Riemsdyk, or Evander Kane, all reportedly available depending on who you ask and when, might be a nice addition to the “Redvolution” as well. With that said, a mega-deal like this seems very unlikely to form in the next week and could instead happen this summer.
2) Depth Defenseman – So what of the deadline? Don’t be surprised to see the Hurricanes sneak another defenseman on to the roster as part of any other moves they make. As discussed earlier this month, Carolina is in an Expansion Draft predicament with their blue liners, most of whom are so young that they don’t qualify for exposure. As of now, only the All-Star Faulk would fill the quota, and that certainly won’t be happening. The simplest move for Francis is to re-sign Tennyson or Klas Dahlbeck and simply expose one of them, but if Tennyson is traded or the team doesn’t want to keep either player around, a small trade to bring in a qualifying veteran would make sense.
Snapshots: Hurricanes, Lazar, NHL In Sweden
The Carolina Hurricanes could be in a position to make some noise in the trade market.
Young and skilled defensemen are often key pieces in making trades, and the Hurricanes have stocked their system with them over the past few drafts. The club’s last three first round picks have been highly-ranked defenders: Haydn Fleury, Noah Hanifin, and Jake Bean. They have also selected Justin Faulk, Brett Pesce, and Jaccob Slavin in lower rounds.
Because of this depth of solid defensemen, GM Ron Francis told ESPN’s Pierre LeBrun that he’s willing to deal from a position of strength to build up other parts of his roster. That could place the Hurricanes as a possible destination for either Matt Duchene or Gabriel Landeskog, seeing as the Avalanche desperately need to improve their defensive core. LeBrun also speculated that Francis could try pry William Nylander out of Toronto, but doubted that the Maple Leafs would have any interest in moving Nylander to improve their blue line.
In addition to the Avalanche and Maple Leafs, LeBrun suggests the Buffalo Sabres, Calgary Flames, Detroit Red Wings, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Winnipeg Jets could all have interest in the Hurricanes’ young blue-liners.
Regardless of whether or not the Hurricanes can land a stud offensive player at the deadline, they’re well-placed to make moves over the summer as other teams look to improve their defense.
- Despite rumors to the contrary, Curtis Lazar has not asked for a trade from the Ottawa Senators. Lazar’s agent met with GM Pierre Dorion last weekend, after which the player re-iterated that he wants to stay in Ottawa. After Dorion suggested that Lazar needs to “sink a few ‘four foot putts’,” Ken Warren of the Ottawa Citizen quoted Lazar as saying even those “almost feel like a home run right now.” The struggling young forward feels that he needs to get back in the lineup and start “feeling good about [him]self.” Lazar has just one assist in 29 NHL games this season, and four points in 13 AHL games.
- Speaking of Ottawa, the Senators will be spending some time outdoors next season, according to Sportsnet’s John Shannon. Pending NHL and PA approval, the Senators will face off against Colorado in Stockholm twice this coming November. It’s been widely speculated that those could be outdoors. Even if those end up being indoors, Shannon reports that the Senators owner has confirmed that the club has an agreement to host an outdoor game in December 2017. It remains to be seen if that will played at Parliament Hill as part of the celebration for Canada’s 150th anniversary.
Expansion Draft Issues At The Trade Deadline: Defense and Goaltending
This trade season is one like never before. The addition of the Vegas Golden Knights in 2017-18 and the Expansion Draft that goes along with it add a whole other layer to trade-making this year. With each and every transaction, the expansion draft protection formula can change. Even in 2000, when the Minnesota Wild and Columbus Blue Jackets were welcomed into the league, the expansion rules were not a strict and general managers did not have to be as paranoid about their moves. This time around, everything is different. What does it all mean? For fans, there is a real possibility that this could be the quietest Trade Deadline in recent memory. Buyers interested in impending free agent rentals may not have to worry about the draft implications, but the sellers potentially taking back roster players with term certainly do. Trading is hard enough, especially in a season with very few teams significantly out of the playoff race, and expansion will only increase those barriers. Luckily, there are several teams that need to make moves prior to the deadline or they could risk being in very sticky situations when the Knights get ready to make their selections. With teams like the Minnesota Wild, Pittsburgh Penguins, Columbus Blue Jackets, and Anaheim Ducks, who have so much talented, veteran depth at multiple positions, there is really not much that they can do; they’re going to lose a good player. For others, a sensible contract extension can solve all of their problems. However, for these teams, making a trade before it’s too late may be exactly what they need:
Calgary Flames – Defensemen
As currently constituted, the Flames would be forced to expose a great defenseman in the Expansion Draft. Mark Giordano, T.J. Brodie, and Dougie Hamilton are clearly the three blue liners that Calgary wants to protect from exposure. However, they are also the only three that meet the “40/70” mandate of having a player with term on their contact who has played 40 games this season or 70 games combined over the last two seasons. Each team is required to expose one defenseman that meets these qualifications, but the Flames don’t have one outside of their core three. Both Dennis Wideman and Deryk Engelland meet the game totals, but are unrestricted free agents. Jyrki Jokipakka is an unrestricted free agent. No other defenseman in the entire organization who has played more than two pro seasons is signed beyond 2017. The Flames only option right now, assuming they have no interest in bringing Wideman or Engelland back, is to extend Jokipakka for the purpose of making him available by the June 21st draft date. However, if they want to take their time negotiating a new deal with the centerpiece of their return for Kris Russell, or if they’re worried that he is more likely to be selected with a new deal than as a free agent, the Flames must look to strike a deal for a qualifying defenseman. They will need blue line help this off-season anyway, so look for Calgary to be major players in quality veteran defenseman with term, should any hit the market.
Carolina Hurricanes – Defensemen
Carolina is in a similar position to Calgary, but don’t even have a choice of three defensemen to choose from if they don’t make a change; the Hurricanes would have to expose (and would surely lose) All-Star Justin Faulk. That, of course, won’t happen, but the ‘Canes must make a move to avoid it. Carolina’s highly-touted young defense is actually what creates this problem. Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, and Noah Hanifin are all amazingly still in their second pro seasons and exempt from selection. Ron Hainsey is an unrestricted free agent and a prime trade candidate. That leaves three others who could possibly fit the bill for GM Ron Francis. 23-year-old Ryan Murphy has a year left on his contract, but remains 24 games shy of reaching the 40/70 benchmark. Would the Hurricanes play Murphy, who has all but been cast aside in Carolina, for the remainder of the season just to expose him? The other option is to extend an impending free agent like Klas Dahlbeck, who otherwise qualifies, or Matt Tennyson, who needs just ten more games to reach the mark. Neither is likely to be selected by Vegas, but would at least cover the requirement for the ‘Canes. The question then becomes whether the team is willing to extend either one when they are so loaded with young talent on the blue line that they would rather not have blocked by mediocre players. Acquiring a qualifying defenseman who presents an upgrade over the pair, but not a surefire expansion pick may make more sense.
Philadelphia Flyers – Goalies
As has been touched on before, teams with goalie qualification problems have been easy to spot this season. Goaltenders don’t have a games-played mandate for exposure, but must have term on their contracts. Going into this season, the Montreal Canadiens had no protection for Carey Price, but fixed that by giving backup Al Montoya an extension, and the Anaheim Ducks had plenty of goalies, but none that qualified other than John Gibson until they extended AHL keeper Dustin Tokarski. The Minnesota Wild decided to follow in the Ducks’ footsteps recently, protecting Devan Dubnyk by extending Alex Stalock rather than backup Darcy Kuemper. That leaves just one team, the Flyers, with goalie problems (what else is new). Their situation is unique though, as Philadelphia is not looking to protect a starter by re-signing or acquiring a backup. Instead, they need to protect prospect Anthony Stolarz. With Steve Mason and Michal Neuvirth set to become unrestricted free agents, Stolarz is the only keeper in the system who qualifies for exposure, and Vegas would surely jump on the promising young goaltender. However, neither Mason nor Neuvirth have played nearly well enough this season to warrant an extension of starter-level money, especially when both would be unlikely to be selected in the draft. The Flyers have few options though, as they don’t want to spend substantial trade capital on a new starter for the future, only to watch him be selected by the Knights. The Flyers are likely scouring the NHL for backup-caliber goalies with term on their contracts and on teams who have the flexibility to move them. It’s a narrow search, and if no deal can be made, Philadelphia will have little choice but to overpay to bring back one of their underwhelming NHL keepers.
Stay tuned next week for Part II: Forwards, featuring six more troubled teams
Injury Updates: Dano, Sharp, Faulk, Letang, Maatta
The Winnipeg Jets have placed left winger Marko Dano on injured reserve with a lower body injury, the team announced. Taking his place on the roster will be center Andrew Copp, who has been recalled from their AHL affiliate, the Manitoba Moose.
Dano suffered the injury in Thursday’s loss to Columbus and following the game, head coach Paul Maurice wasn’t too optimistic about the situation, notes Jason Bell of the Winnipeg Free Press:
“I’ll be surprised if we come back on a short term injury here. We’re talking about weeks, easily.”
Dano, who was acquired by Winnipeg back in February as part of the Andrew Ladd trade, has played in 28 games with the Jets this season after being cut in training camp. He has three goals and seven assists in that span.
As for Copp, he has been up with Winnipeg for the majority of this season but had been sent back to Manitoba when the roster freeze lifted on Wednesday. In 25 games with the Jets this year, he has three goals and four assists.
More injury updates from around the league:
- Stars left winger Patrick Sharp has been given the green light to return to game action, Mark Stepneski of Stars Inside Edge reports (Twitter link). He’s expected to be in the lineup tomorrow night as they host Florida. Sharp has been out of the lineup since December 1st and has played in just 11 games this year due to multiple concussions, picking up just a goal and an assist in that span.
- The Hurricanes are quite pleased with how defenseman Justin Faulk is progressing in his rehab from a lower body injury, writes Chip Alexander of the News & Observer. While he could be back earlier than expected, it’s unlikely that he will be back before Tuesday against the Devils and even being available for that game may be a stretch. Faulk has 16 points (7-9-16) in 30 games to lead all Carolina blueliners in scoring this season.
- The Penguins could have defensemen Kris Letang and Olli Maatta back in the lineup tomorrow when they host Montreal, reports Jonathan Bombulie of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Letang, who has two goals and 17 assists in 25 games this year, has been out since December 14th with a lower body injury while Maatta has missed the last two games with an illness.