Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.
Going into the 2016-17 season, more people thought that the Carolina Hurricanes would be the worst team in the NHL than thought they would be a playoff team. Yet, the exciting, young ’Canes squad stayed in it until the end, only falling out of playoff contention in the final few games of the season. It was a completely unexpected performance from a team still lacking any major stars, but showed that their youthful nucleus can succeed without them.
Luckily for Carolina fans, perhaps no team in the NHL has a better chance of escaping the upcoming Expansion Draft unscathed than the Hurricanes. Not only does the teams youth protect many of their best players from being draft-eligible, but the team is in fact so young, that there are very few players total that can be exposed. With the league’s deepest young defense almost entirely intact with Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, Noah Hanifin and pro prospects Haydn Fleury and Roland McKeown ineligible – each with two or fewer NHL seasons – and star rookie Sebastian Aho also immune, the Hurricanes can use the rest of their protection slots to cover all their other important players and then some.
Eligible Players (Non-UFA)
Forwards
Jordan Staal (NMC), Jeff Skinner, Victor Rask, Elias Lindholm, Lee Stempniak, Joakim Nordstrom, Andrej Nestrasil, Teuvo Teravainen, Erik Karlsson, Phillip Di Giuseppe, Brock McGinn
Defense
Justin Faulk, Klas Dahlbeck, Ryan Murphy, Trevor Carrick
Goaltender
Scott Darling, Cam Ward, Eddie Lack, Daniel Altshuller
Notable Exemptions
Sebastian Aho, Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, Noah Hanifin, Haydn Fleury, Roland McKeown, Derek Ryan
Key Decisions
The ’Canes have few decisions to make here. Up front, captain Jordan Staal must be protected due to his No-Movement Clause and his supporting cast of young scorers – Jeff Skinner, Victor Rask, Elias Lindholm, and Teuvo Teravainen – will surely join him. With 16 points in 57 games in 2016-17, 22-year-old Brock McGinn has also likely earned his spot on the team. This leaves one forward spot spot left, as Carolina will almost certainly use the 7/3 protection scheme. The odd men out will probably be consummate veteran Lee Stempniak and two-way forward Joakim Nordstrom, who took a step back this season anyway. Those two are the only remaining players that meet the two-forward exposure quota of players with 70 games played over the past two years or 40 games played this past season that also have term remaining on their contracts. Should the Hurricanes want to protect either one, they still have the option of extending restricted free agents Andrej Nestrasil or Phillip Di Giuseppe or impending UFA Jay McClement in the coming weeks, as the trio are only short on term to qualify for the quota. If they choose not to, the choice comes down to Nestrasil, Di Giuseppe, or minor league winger Erik Karlsson for the final spot, with little on the line.
On the blue line the choice is even easier. By re-signing Klas Dahlbeck recently, the Hurricanes secured their sacrificial lamb for Expansion. Dahlbeck qualifies to be exposed in accordance with the quota for one defenseman, taking All-Star Justin Faulk off the hook. Young defenseman Ryan Murphy and Trevor Carrick are literally the only other defenseman in need of protection with exactly two defensive spots open to do so.
In net, the decision has already been made. The Hurricanes secured their goalie of the future earlier this month, trading for former Chicago Blackhawks backup Scott Darling and giving him a four-year, $16.6MM deal. In doing so, Carolina also guaranteed that he would be their protected goalie in the draft, as they would not waste their time with such an investment just to let Darling be drafted away to Vegas. Instead, they’ll let the Golden Knights have their pick of long-time starter Cam Ward, high-end backup Eddie Lack, and prospect keeper Daniel Altshuller. With over $10MM tied up in Darling, Ward, and Lack next season, the Hurricanes hope the Knights take the bait, but even if they don’t, both Ward and Lack will be free agents next summer anyway.
Projected Protection List
Scheme: 7F/3D/1G
Forwards
Jordan Staal (NMC)
Jeff Skinner
Victor Rask
Elias Lindholm
Teuvo Teravainen
Brock McGinn
Phillip Di Giuseppe
Defensemen
Justin Faulk
Ryan Murphy
Trevor Carrick
Goalie
What is the worst case scenario for the Hurricanes? They could lose Stempniak and be left with over $10MM in goalies. That’s pretty much it. Yes, Stempniak scored 40 points last season, but he’s also 33 years old and has just one year left on his contract. The Hurricanes could replace him in free agency with ease. They also could simply re-sign another forward and protect him if they really want to. As for the goalie, Ward is a lifetime Hurricane and outplayed Lack by a slim margin last year. It really would not be all that bad to have him as a backup to first-time starter Darling next season. GM Ron Francis could surely sweeten a deal (if necessary) to have Vegas take Lack and, if not, should be able to find another suitor elsewhere.
If Stempniak does end up off the board though, is there really any other option for the Knights beyond goalie? At forward, Di Giuseppe gets the nod for the last protection slot over Nestrasil and Karlsson. Nestrasil is already on the outs in Carolina and Di Giuseppe has already passed him up on the depth chart. Karlsson has signed on to return to Sweden next season and will have no impact on the 2017-18 Hurricanes. Carolina is deep enough in prospects, such as Julien Gauthier, Nicolas Roy, Janne Kuokkanen, Warren Foegele, Aleksi Saarela and more that they can risk losing Karlsson without risking losing any sleep over it. On defense, Dahlbeck is the only contracted player that can be taken. While he did play in 43 games with Carolina last season, GM George McPhee will have plenty of quality defenseman to choose from in the Expansion Draft, and Dahlbeck simply doesn’t stand out as worth taking. The Hurricanes are so well protected from the wrath of the expansion process that even unrestricted free agent center Derek Ryan, who quietly put up 29 points in 2016-17 to the tune of $600K, is also exempt from selection, having come over from Europe just two years ago. Goalie seems to be the only real option and even if Altshuller is the pick, he is far from a promising prospect and not at the top of the Hurricanes’ prospect rankings in net. The Knights have few options when selecting a player from Carolina and none of them pose any threat to a team that is on the rise.
I don’t see why Vegas would take any of the other goalies. Ward would maybe make sense to have a veteran option, but Vegas has other options. If Vegas drafts Grubauer as expect, they have two goalies to take. If they trade for Fleury as some have reported, then do they really need Lack? No. Even if they don’t acquire Fleury, Lack probably isn’t the best option. Yes, there aren’t a lot of great options from the Hurricanes for Vegas, but drafting a goalie from them when they’ll be better options on other teams isn’t a good move. It would make more sense to draft a skater even if the only use him as minor league depth