East Notes: Burakovsky, Skinner, Lee
Washington’s salary cap situation doesn’t leave them a lot of wiggle room to work with this summer. Restricted free agent winger Andre Burakovsky is arguably their most intriguing player in need of a new contract. His qualifying offer checks in at $3.25MM which is on the pricey side for a forward who has scored a dozen goals in each of the last three seasons but at the same time, he’s only 24 and has shown flashes of considerable upside. Despite that, NBC Sports Washington’s J.J. Regan posits that their $1.15MM bonus overage from 2018-19 (bonuses for fellow RFA Jakub Vrana and UFA blueliner Brooks Orpik) could ultimately force Brian MacLellan to non-tender him next month. It’s rare that a player with some track record of NHL success becomes available on the open market so if he was to become available, there would undoubtedly be considerable interest in him despite his struggles.
Elsewhere out East:
- Contract talks between the Sabres and winger Jeff Skinner are expected to resume this week at the Draft Combine, reports Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic (Twitter link). Talks between the two sides have gone back several months but they’ve yet to find an agreement just yet. Complicating matters is that Skinner had a torrid start that saw him score 30 goals in his first 44 games. However, he had just ten in 38 contests the rest of the way. It’s plausible to think that Skinner will want to be paid for reaching the 40-goal mark while Buffalo GM Jason Botterill will be looking for a cheaper deal given his late struggles and concussion history.
- With Brock Nelson now locked up for six more years, the Islanders will likely shift their focus to captain Anders Lee, notes Brett Cyrgalis of the New York Post. There is mutual interest in getting a deal done but the issue continues to be the term of the deal. The winger will turn 29 in July so a near max-term pact will certainly carry some risk; Cyrgalis suggests the Isles may not want to go more than four years. However, he’s a big part of their attack and one of the top wingers on the open market so GM Lou Lamoriello will likely have to compromise and give him a longer-term contract to keep Lee in the fold.
Buffalo Sabres, Jeff Skinner Extension Talks “Extremely Positive”
The Buffalo Sabres needed to find a coach before doing anything else this offseason. Their new bench boss would be a huge influence on the direction of the team this summer, and now that they have Ralph Krueger locked up as their man, they can move onto other important decisions. One of those is regarding the pending unrestricted free agency of sniper Jeff Skinner, but things seem headed towards an extension if you ask GM Jason Botterill. He was on WGR 550 in Buffalo earlier this week and explained where things stand:
A contract is never done until you get it signed, but our discussions with Jeff have been extremely positive. I think it’s been a relationship that has worked out very well for the Buffalo Sabres, and I think it’s a relationship that has worked out very well for Jeff.
We went through the coaching search here, sometimes people get a little impatient, but we wanted to make sure we went through the process correctly. I think what’s going on with Jeff and ourselves now is there was never going to be an extension announced before a coach was hired. A coach is now hired, we’ll continue our discussions there and get the chance to sit down with Jeff and go over things with how we see him fitting in, and how Ralph is going to coach this team and how he will interact with his players and his structure moving forward. Then we’ll hopefully find a way to get a deal done. From our standpoint, our discussions with both Jeff and Newport Sports have been extremely positive.
Skinner, 27, was listed fourth on our Midseason UFA Power Rankings, behind only Erik Karlsson, Artemi Panarin and Mark Stone, who has since signed an extension with the Vegas Golden Knights. Even with the emergence of Matt Duchene into a postseason force for the Columbus Blue Jackets, the Sabres forward may be the second best offensive weapon available on the open market if he doesn’t reach a new deal in the next six weeks. After struggling to maintain his high pace last season in Carolina, a fresh start in Buffalo rejuvenated Skinner’s career and his instant chemistry with Jack Eichel led to a career-high 40 goals and 63 points. Easily pacing the Sabres in goals means his departure would be a devastating hit to their offense for 2019-20, but handing out a blank check is always risky.
Luckily, the Sabres have put themselves in an extremely flexible financial situation even with their $80MM commitment to Eichel. The team has just four one-way contracts that extend through the 2020-21 season—Eichel, Kyle Okposo, Carter Hutton and Rasmus Ristolainen—and plenty of money coming off the books if they want it to. A deal for Skinner that could reach as many as eight years with a healthy raise from his $5.75MM cap hit would come with a lot of expectations, but also not cripple the Sabres finances if he takes a slight step backwards. As one of the youngest players on the free agent market—Skinner turned 27 just three days ago—and with an outstanding 244 goals in 661 career games, there may be no better bet available.
Avalanche To Be “Aggressive” With Top Free Agents
Colorado Avalanche GM Joe Sakic is a fan of the upcoming free agent class. Speaking at the team’s final media availability of the season, Sakic said of the impending market that “It’s a pretty good class this year…We see positions of need, of what we’re looking to do. There’s a few guys that we’re gonna want to talk to if they become available. We’ll be more aggressive this year.” The Avalanche went out and added defenseman Ian Cole and forward Matt Calvert last summer, who are solid complementary players, but aren’t the major game-changers that can alter a franchise. After a surprising postseason run, Colorado now knows that their championship window is open and those game-changers appear to be exactly what Sakic has his sights set on this off-season to support his team’s pursuit of the Stanley Cup. And he’s also not willing just add anyone if he misses out on his top targets, adding “if it doesn’t work out with the players that we want to talk to we’re not just gonna go spend on anybody. We want the right players and the right fit.”
Fortunately for Sakic and the Avs, the team’s salary cap structure allows the GM to back up his comments as well. With Semyon Varlamov, Patrik Nemeth, and Derick Brassard – three players who contributed little to nothing this postseason – coming off the books, Colorado will shed more than $11MM. The team could opt to re-sign the likes of Colin Wilson, Gabriel Bourque, and Pavel Francouz, but none of that trio would likely take up much cap space. Right now, the team has an estimate of nearly $32MM in cap space entering the off-season. Some of that will need to be reserved for re-upping restricted free agents Alexander Kerfoot, J.T. Compher, Nikita Zadorov, and most of all Mikko Rantanen. However, it should still leave the Avs with at least double-digit cap space to explore the market with.
So which top free agents could the Avalanche pursue? You can cross off the tandem of Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky for a number of reasons and it’s hard to imagine Matt Duchene returning to Denver. However, the team’s need for secondary scoring could lead Sakic to make pitches for many of the other elite forwards. Jeff Skinner, Joe Pavelski, and Anders Lee may not hit the market, but expect the Avs to be in the mix if they do. More ascertainable targets could be Ryan Dzingel, Jordan Eberle, Kevin Hayes, Gustav Nyquist, Marcus Johansson, and Mats Zuccarello, any of whom would provide an immediate boost to the team’s scoring depth. Adding two of those forwards would give the team a totally different look up front next season. Colorado may also have their eye on an established backup for Philipp Grubauer and could chase the likes of Mike Smith or Cam Talbot, among others.
Given the talent already on the Colorado roster, an aggressive off-season plan should be an interesting topic to follow along with this summer. Sakic and company have seen what their team can do as an 8-seed in the playoffs and surely are imagining what might happen if they are instead a top seed. A division title and more is certainly in the realm of possibility next season if the Avalanche succeed in adding a couple of the aforementioned players.
Poll: How Many Top Free Agents Will Re-Sign Before July 1st?
The season is over for all but four NHL teams, meaning free agents from the other 27 clubs are already focused on July 1st and the start of free agency. How many of those top free agents are still considering staying where they are versus testing the market? How many teams have the means and interest to re-sign them?
In January, PHR published our Mid-Season UFA Power Rankings: 1-10, 11-20, and honorable mentions. Mark Stone, Eric Staal, Jakob Silfverberg and Jimmy Howard – four of our top 25 – have already signed extensions. However, the other top names and their current squads have exactly seven weeks to decide whether or not they will follow suit.
The Columbus Blue Jackets went all in at the trade deadline and it paid off with the franchise’s first ever playoff series win, a shocking sweep of the President’s Trophy-winning Tampa Bay Lightning. Yet, the acquisitions of Ottawa Senators standouts Matt Duchene (No. 5) and Ryan Dzingel (No. 16) was not enough to get the team through round two, nevertheless to a Stanley Cup title. Now, the team faces the possibility that their new additions could walk in free agency alongside stars Artemi Panarin (No. 2) and Sergei Bobrovsky (No. 6), leaving them with major holes to fill. The latter duo have long been expected to test the market, perhaps even as a package deal. Additionally, the conditional 2020 first-round pick tied to re-signing Duchene would seemingly make it less likely that Columbus opts to extend him, especially given their lack of picks in the upcoming draft. None of those three have officially ruled out a return to the Blue Jackets, but it doesn’t look good. On the other hand, Dzingel, an Ohio State University alum, looks like he could be a more natural long-term fit, but it hasn’t prevented rumors that other teams are very interested in signing him.
Another free agent-heavy team that blew through round one of the playoffs only to be knocked off in round two are the New York Islanders. After losing John Tavares last summer, going through the same with top forward Anders Lee (No. 9) would be devastating for the Islanders franchise. Yet, the captain still remains unsigned. It’s fair to assume they will eventually figure it out, but that line of thinking if awfully reminiscent of last year. New York is reportedly pushing hard to retain enter Brock Nelson (No. 11) and winger Jordan Eberle (No. 15) as well, but they could be more inclined to test the market. There’s also the question of resurgent goalie Robin Lehner (No. 23). Will the Islanders lock up the young keeper who was so solid this season? Or will they refuse to pay market value for a player that has benefited from their system while splitting time with Thomas Greiss?
Another team of interest are the San Jose Sharks, who remain alive in the Western Conference Final. Superstar defenseman Erik Karlsson (No. 1) and respected veteran forward Joe Pavelski (No. 7) are both heading for free agency and the Sharks may be hard-pressed to sign both. There’s also deadline addition Gustav Nyquist (No. 14) to consider re-signing, as he has had a strong postseason with the Sharks. The Carolina Hurricanes are also one of four teams still playing and are definitely happy they held on to forward Micheal Ferland (No. 18). Ferland is reportedly expected to test the market, but after a deep postseason run he may be more open to extending his stay with the Hurricanes.
It was a difficult end to the year for the Winnipeg Jets, who were one-and-done this year, falling to the St. Louis Blues in the first round. Between rental center Kevin Hayes (No. 8) and big defenseman Tyler Myers (No. 10), the Jets have a pair of coveted free agents on the roster who they would surely like to keep, but that is the least of their worries as they face a daunting impending cap crunch. It could make bringing back even one of the two nearly impossible. The same goes for defenseman Jake Gardiner (No. 12) and the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Leafs will have a hard enough time keeping their roster together and re-signing their current restricted free agent, nevertheless managing to re-sign Gardiner.
Generally, playoff rentals proceed to hit the free agent market rather than re-up with their new teams. In addition to Duchene, Dzingel, Hayes, and Nyquist, Nashville’s Wayne Simmonds (No. 13), Dallas’ Mats Zuccarello (No. 21), and Colorado’s Derick Brassard (No. 24) could very well be headed to yet another destination. Simmonds and Brassard were disappointments in their short stays, but Zuccarello proved to be a nice fit with the Stars. However, the team would lose a first-round pick rather than a second-round pick to the New York Rangers if they were to re-sign the veteran forward. That may not be enough to stop them from extending him, though.
If there was any doubt that the Buffalo Sabres couldn’t re-sign Jeff Skinner (No. 4), one would think he would have been dealt at the trade deadline. However, he remains suspiciously unsigned and would be a massive addition to the free agent market if he does make it to July. Skinner has been a great match with Jack Eichel and certainly looks like a long-term fit in Buffalo, but the team’s second-half struggles could have Skinner re-thinking a long-term stay.
Vancouver’s Alexander Edler (No. 22) stated that his preference was not to be dealt at this year’s trade deadline and to instead re-sign with the Canucks. The two sides have been working toward an extension, but until pen meets paper he is still an impending free agent that will attract considerable attention. Similarly, Semyon Varlamov (No. 17) has expressed an interest in remaining with the Colorado Avalanche, but it’s unclear if the feeling is mutual. Varlamov would have to take a major pay cut to stay on as backup and may rather test a goalie market that has already lost Howard and could lose Lehner before free agency opens.
Compared to recent years, this impending free agent class does look to have fewer locks for extensions among top players. Any of these names could hit the market, although odds are they won’t all choose to do so. Regardless, this could be a healthy market come July 1st. Just how deep could it be? That’s for you to guess. How many of these top free agents will sign extensions?
How Many Top Free Agents Will Re-Sign?
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4-6 39% (331)
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1-3 34% (288)
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7-9 15% (131)
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10+ 7% (59)
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None 5% (40)
Total votes: 849
[Mobile users click here to vote]
Arizona Coyotes To Target Scoring This Off-Season
The Arizona Coyotes missed out on the postseason this year by a mere four points. While a success overall for the rebuilding club, the Coyotes struggled greatly on offense. The team’s 209 goals for were tied for third-worst in the NHL and their 16.3% power play success rate was sixth-worst. Behind stellar goaltending from Darcy Kuemper and strong team defense, the team largely got the job done, but they need to improve their scoring if they want to take the next step.
It’s thus no surprise that both Richard Morin of Arizona Republic and Craig Morgan of The Athletic write that Arizona will be looking to add a prominent scoring forward this summer. GM John Chayka would seem to agree:
I think to understand what we need to do to improve is pretty simple: We need to score more goals. I think anytime someone’s going through and trying to diagnose what you need to do to take that next step, that’s not the complicated part or complex part. I think what we need to understand and work through is, how do we score more goals? How do we create more offense, while maintaining that fundamental foundation of being a good stingy, defensive team.
Among the top options – albeit unlikely – for the Coyotes on the free agent market would be Columbus Blue Jackets stars Artemi Panarin and Matt Duchene, Buffalo Sabres’ standout Jeff Skinner, or any of the New York Islanders’ trio of Anders Lee, Jordan Eberle, and Brock Nelson. All of these forwards are prime talents, but may not be available to Arizona. Both Skinner and Lee are expected to re-sign with their current teams, as could Eberle or Nelson, while Panarin and Duchene are likely outside the Coyotes’ price range. More accessible free agent scorers could include Ryan Dzingel, Gustav Nyquist, Wayne Simmonds, or Brett Connolly, one or two of which would be a major boost to Arizona’s offense.
Morgan also adds that several cap-strapped teams could be forced to move talented forwards, leaving the Coyotes in places to scoop up valuable players at a discount. The Toronto Maple Leafs, Winnipeg Jets, and Tampa Bay Lightning are all in a tough spot, leaving the likes of Kasperi Kapanen, Andreas Johnsson, William Nylander, Nikolaj Ehlers, Mathieu Perreault, Ondrej Palat, J.T. Miller, or Alex Killorn possibly up for grabs.
Either by signing or trade, the Coyotes are likely to add a prominent forward or two and are expected to target wingers rather than centers. Arizona will be a team to watch this off-season as they target several of the aforementioned top names.
Snapshots: Three Stars, Hitchcock, Skinner
The NHL has released their three stars of last week, and in the lead is a player who has had quite a roller coaster season. Vladimir Tarasenko had seven points in four games to help secure a Central Division playoff spot for the St. Louis Blues, just months after being one of the players rumored to be drawing interest in trade negotiations. The Blues went from a team considering blowing up its core to one that very well could contend for the Stanley Cup, and Tarasenko’s turnaround is one of the reasons why. The 27-year old sniper scored 46 points in his final 39 games and was a +23 during that time, finishing the year with his fifth consecutive season of 33 or more goals.
It’s not just the Blues who have hot players heading into the playoffs though, as Pekka Rinne of the Nashville Predators and Alexander Radulov of the Dallas Stars take home the other two stars this week. Rinne is proving once again that he is one of the most reliable goaltenders in the entire league and enters the playoffs as Nashville’s presumptive starter despite a strong push by backup Juuse Saros. Radulov meanwhile finished his season strong and crossed the point-per-game threshold for the first time in his career, ending with 72 in 70 games played.
- The Edmonton Oilers will let their next GM decide what to do with the coaching position, as CEO Bob Nicholson told reporters today that Ken Hitchcock‘s time behind the bench has come to an end for the time being. The legendary coach was only meant to be in that position for the rest of this season, and though Nicholson wouldn’t rule out the idea of him returning, said the new GM will be able to hire who he wants. Hitchcock will stay in the Oilers organization as an advisor, something the incoming front office will need as they try to turn things around for the organization.
- After a disastrous season in Buffalo the Sabres fired their coach and held frustrated media availability today, but the focus will now turn to pending unrestricted free agent Jeff Skinner. The team has been in contact with Skinner’s representatives for some time, and the talented forward once again reiterated that he loves the city and organization and has “had a great time.” Skinner scored 40 goals for the first time in his career and could potentially be one of the very best forwards available this summer. The clock is ticking for the Sabres, as every day that passes makes the chance at free agency that much harder to resist.
East Notes: Skinner, Kronwall, Vanek, Van Riemsdyk
While the Sabres have discussed a potential contract extension for winger Jeff Skinner throughout the season, a deal has yet to be reached. Speaking to reporters, including WKBW’s Matt Bove, GM Jason Botterill indicated that both sides are still focusing on getting a deal done, suggesting that Skinner hasn’t shifted his focus to free agency just yet. The 26-year-old got off to a strong start with 30 goals over his first 44 games before cooling off considerably, scoring just 10 over the last 38 contests. John Vogl of The Athletic examined (subscription required) some possible comparables for Skinner, noting that the new deal that Mark Stone signed upon his trade to Vegas (eight years, $76MM) is one that his representatives will likely want to use in discussions.
Elsewhere in the East:
- Red Wings defenseman Niklas Kronwall and Thomas Vanek are unsure as to whether or not they want to play next season, notes Ted Kulfan of The Detroit News. It was believed that Kronwall was likely to retire after 2018-19 but he wound up logging nearly 20 minutes a night over 79 games, suggesting that he’s still capable of being an important piece for Detroit. Meanwhile, Vanek finished with a respectable 36 points in 64 games but indicated that his family will play a large role in determining whether or not he wants to play a 15th NHL season. Both players are set to be unrestricted free agents in July.
- The Flyers announced (Twitter link) that winger James van Riemsdyk will suit up for Team USA at the upcoming World Championships. It will be his first time suiting up in the tournament since he played a pair of games back in 2011. His return to Philadelphia was a reasonable success as he finished fifth in team scoring despite missing 16 games due to injuries while his goal per game rate was only slightly below 2017-18 when he scored a career-best 36 goals.
Latest On Jeff Skinner Extension Discussions
While extension discussions have been going on throughout the season, there still isn’t a new deal in place between the Sabres and winger Jeff Skinner. In an appearance on Sportsnet 590 (audio link), Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman noted that the issue right now appears to be the term of the deal that the 26-year old is seeking.
The pending UFA got off to a torrid start to the season but has slowed down considerably since then and has just six goals over his last 25 games. However, he still has a good chance to reach the 40-goal mark for the first time in his career which would position him to be potentially the top scorer to hit the open market. (San Jose’s Joe Pavelski is also in the mix for the goal-scoring lead among potential free agents.)
Meanwhile, TSN’s Bob McKenzie weighed in on the financial side of talks while appearing on TSN 690 (audio link). He suggested that the asking price could be in the $9MM per year range which would represent a significant jump on his current AAV of $5.725MM.
However, despite how well Skinner has played alongside Jack Eichel, that type of financial commitment carries considerable risk given that there’s a chance he won’t even reach the 70-point mark; he’s at 58 through 70 games while his career high is 63. That’s a lot to commit for someone that doesn’t have a lengthy track record of being an elite scorer.
With that in mind, McKenzie believes Buffalo is looking for something closer to $8MM per season. That would still be a big jump but would put him a level below the recent deal that Mark Stone signed with Vegas (eight years, $9.5MM AAV) and would give them a little bit more cap flexibility with Eichel ($10MM) already on the books and a potentially big deal for rookie blueliner Rasmus Dahlin on the horizon in two years.
By all accounts, there doesn’t appear to be any animosity between the two sides as the discussions have been held close to the vest. However, the longer Skinner goes without a deal, the temptation to wait a little longer to see what’s out there on the open market has to increase. Accordingly, expect this to remain at or near the top of GM Jason Botterill’s to-do list over the next few months.
Carolina Hurricanes Trade Cliff Pu
The Carolina Hurricanes have traded a big part of the return for Jeff Skinner, sending prospect Cliff Pu to the Florida Panthers. While technically not the same trade, the Hurricanes have received Tomas Jurco in return. Jurco is on an AHL contract and had to be involved as a separate transaction.
Pu, 20, had recently been assigned to the ECHL after struggling in his first professional season. The former Buffalo Sabres prospect has just six points in 44 games with the Charlotte Checkers, and will now try to turn his young career around in his third organization. Pu along with three draft picks was the package the Hurricanes acquired for Skinner in the offseason, in a deal that now looks even worse for Carolina.
There’s still plenty of time for Pu to turn things around and develop into the big offensive threat he showed in junior, but the Checkers needed help now for a potential Calder Cup run this season. Carolina apparently believed Jurco’s addition was more valuable, and he will certainly bring a lot of experience to the table. The 26-year old forward has 10 points in 14 games with the Springfield Thunderbirds, and won a Calder Cup with the Grand Rapids Griffins in 2013.
Under an AHL contract, Jurco cannot be recalled to the NHL.
Eastern Notes: Talbot, Skinner, Mittelstadt, Gagner
The Philadelphia Flyers made a big trade late Friday when they sent current backup Anthony Stolarz to Edmonton in exchange for veteran goaltender Cam Talbot. The team hopes that Talbot can provide rookie Carter Hart with some guidance and help Hart’s transition to the NHL. The only problem is that Talbot will be an unrestricted free agent this summer and the team has to decide make sure they can lock up Talbot for the future.
Sam Carchidi of Philly.com writes that he spoke to Talbot who said that he choose to come to Philadelphia for a chance of a long-term stay and is open to signing an extension with the Flyers before July 1. Carchidi adds that Talbot said it was a “tough season” in Edmonton and is looking for a fresh start with the Flyers and wants to take on the mentor role for Hart, who he is already familiar with.
- Mike Harrington of the Buffalo News cautions fans to be patient when it comes to the Buffalo Sabres re-signing winger Jeff Skinner. The 26-year-old is one goal shy of his career-high of 37 goals and looks to have taken his game to another level. Unfortunately for Buffalo, Skinner has yet to sign an extension, which worries fans, especially now that the team is struggling. However, Harrington writes that the fact that Buffalo is falling out of the playoff picture will have no impact on Skinner’s decision. He wants to be in Buffalo and has told his agent that as well. He’s two hours from his home in Toronto and loves it in Buffalo next to Jack Eichel.
- Sticking with Buffalo, Lance Lysowski of the Buffalo News reports that rookie center Casey Mittelstadt is expected to return to the lineup Sunday after missing the last two games with a lower-body injury. The 20-year-old Mittelstadt has eight goals and 19 points so far this season, but has been holding down the second-line center position for much of the season. although a pending return of Kyle Okposo could bump him to the third line.
- One loser of the Ryan Spooner for Sam Gagner trade earlier today between the Vancouver Canucks and the Edmonton Oilers are the Toronto Marlies, according to the Toronto Star’s Kevin McGran. The AHL franchise, who is coming off a Calder Cup Championship last year, is trying hard to repeat and had the good fortune that Vancouver was willing to accommodate Gagner, who wanted to stay close to home in Toronto if he wasn’t going to play in the NHL. Vancouver opted to loan Gagner to the Marlies where he was the team’s second-line center. The trade takes a way a key veteran player for their run, who had posted 12 goals and 37 points in 43 games.