The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs, plus those who have already been eliminated. Accordingly, it’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Pittsburgh.
No one expected the Pittsburgh Penguins to make the playoffs this year, but thanks to some sly front-office work by Kyle Dubas and company, the team hit on most of their moves and skated into the playoffs. It wasn’t a long playoff run, but it was likely enough to show Dubas and the Penguins’ management team that the roster they have now isn’t far from competing in the Eastern Conference. Despite Pittsburgh being a nice story, the team is still quite old, and most of their key players are on the wrong side of 30, which means they need to find young stars to move into top roles on the roster. With Dubas at the helm, the Penguins could be poised for a big summer.
Add A Top Four Defenseman
Pittsburgh relied on a ragtag top-four defensive unit last year, leaning heavily on Erik Karlsson, Kris Letang, and Parker Wotherspoon, occasionally using Ryan Shea, Brett Kulak, and Samuel Girard to close the year. While Wotherspoon and Karlsson were an excellent pairing, Girard and Letang struggled and probably aren’t best suited for second-pairing duty on a team with playoff aspirations. Letang is best suited for a third-pairing role, or, if he is forced into top-four duty, he needs a defensively responsible, safe partner like Kulak was.
It will be interesting to see whether the Penguins circle back on Kulak this summer, but given Dubas’ mandate to build a younger roster, it’s hard to imagine him pursuing a 32-year-old projected to get a three-year deal this offseason. The Penguins need a top-four defender this summer, preferably one in his mid-20s. Pittsburgh management is high on prospect Harrison Brunicke, but it’s tough to envision him taking on that assignment as a rookie.
It’s likely the Dubas will need to look outside the organization for help on this front, and in terms of unrestricted free agents, there isn’t much available that would fit what the Penguins are looking for. Mario Ferraro is an option if Pittsburgh were looking for a defensive defenseman capable of filling a top-four role, but he may not be the optimal choice. Although he is a decent puck carrier and, at 27 years old, fits the Penguins’ timeline, his contract is projected to be north of $5MM annually on a four-year deal, and that number could go up should a bidding war start. The Penguins already have one contract on the books for left-handed defensive defenseman Ryan Graves, and it is arguably the worst deal in Penguins history (although Jack Johnson’s is up there as well). Graves was signed on the first day of free agency in 2023, and Dubas likely learned his lesson from chasing high-priced defensive rearguards in free agency.
All signs point to the trade market as the best option for Pittsburgh, and they have plenty of assets they could move, including draft picks and prospects. Bowen Byram of Buffalo would be a possible target for the Penguins, but he reportedly likes Buffalo, and the Sabres would like to keep him long term. At 24 years of age, Byram is uber-talented and offers many of the intangibles teams are looking for. However, in the years that followed the 2022 Stanley Cup, he struggled to put it all together, leaving a sizeable gap between his skill set and his on-ice play. This past year, he was much better, setting a career high in points with 42 in 82 games. Despite all of this, Byram might be a target for the Penguins to steer clear of given the trade costs and the financial costs of his future contract.
Braden Schneider of the New York Rangers and Simon Nemec of the New Jersey Devils are two more defensemen who could be on the move this offseason, but it’s hard to envision the Rangers and Devils sending young, emerging defenders to a division rival. The Rangers are the likelier of the two to do so, having sent K’Andre Miller to the Hurricanes last summer in a blockbuster deal. Schneider would be a gamble for Pittsburgh, as he hasn’t quite taken the big step the Rangers were hoping he could take, but at this point, he could probably serve as Girard’s partner on a second pairing. There are major warts to Schneider’s game, and whatever he gets paid on his next contract will exceed his actual impact on the ice. Schneider is neither poised nor skilled with the puck, which is a problem for a team paying him $6MM, which is what a long-term deal will look like right now. That being said, in Pittsburgh, head coach Dan Muse’s style of play might benefit Schneider, as it relies more on short, higher-percentage passing rather than long breakout passes.
Nemec’s warts are on the defensive side, but he has a ton of offensive upside. If Pittsburgh were to acquire him to play in their top four, they would also need to find a defensive left-shot partner to support Nemec as he figures out his play in his own end. Given that Girard and Letang are not that type, the Penguins are unlikely to pursue the 22-year-old.
Finally, there is Olen Zellweger, a fantastic transition defender for the Anaheim Ducks who might fall victim to the numbers game out West. The smooth-skating puck mover is far from a finished product and needs work on both sides of the puck. This leaves him third on Anaheim’s depth chart, behind Jackson LaCombe and Pavel Mintyukov. With a pending cap crunch in Anaheim, he might be squeezed out. The issue for Pittsburgh is that Zellweger is undersized and is almost a carbon copy of Girard, albeit quite a bit younger. It’s possible the Penguins could acquire him and move Girard to the third pairing, but pairing Zellweger with Letang feels like a recipe for disaster, given Girard and Letang’s results from this past year.
Find A 2C
The Penguins have decent depth down the middle of the ice, with Sidney Crosby centering the first line, followed by Thomas Novak, Benjamin Kindel, and Blake Lizotte. The weak link in that chain is on the second line, where Novak isn’t an ideal fit and would be better suited to a bottom-six role. Kindel is probably a bit ripe for a 2C role, but he likely will move into it in the next couple of seasons. The Penguins also have Evgeni Malkin remaining in the fold, but asking a 40-year-old with two bad knees to play second-line center for 82 games is a ridiculous ask. A second-line center would give Pittsburgh a formidable top six and either push Novak into a role better suited to his skill set or allow the Penguins to move him for other assets.
It’s easy to talk about acquiring a top-six center, but much harder to do so, especially for Dubas, who isn’t going to target older players and would much rather grab a younger one. The cost to acquire this type of player will be exorbitant, as many teams are trying to beef up the middle of the ice on their own teams. Some folks will float the name of Vincent Trocheck because of his connection to the city of Pittsburgh, but given that he is 32, it doesn’t fit the Penguins’ long-term plans.
Two St. Louis Blues players come to mind, with Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou both mentioned in trade discussions. For the Penguins, either player would make sense given their age, contract status, and talent level, but Thomas would probably be the better fit. The 26-year-old has been a point-per-game player for the better part of five seasons and could slot into the Penguins’ depth chart behind Crosby and play with Malkin and Egor Chinakhov. The issue for Pittsburgh would be the cost, which might start with Kindel, a non-starter if you are the Penguins. That makes this trade unlikely, but if Thomas’ market falls and Pittsburgh could use other prospects and draft picks to make a move, you have to imagine that Dubas would be in on Thomas. Kyrou should be easier to acquire, given that he is a few years older than Thomas and struggled last season. But those two years might be enough to push Dubas to look elsewhere rather than pursue an expensive, underperforming 28-year-old.
Speaking of an expensive, underperforming 28-year-old, Auston Matthews is a name forever tied to Dubas after their time together in Toronto. Matthews has had a tumultuous few seasons in Toronto, and it’s fair to wonder whether it’s time for him and the Maple Leafs to get together and find a new place for him to play. For their part, both the team and Matthews have said they want to continue the relationship, but with two years left on his contract and a poor showing last season, things could change in a hurry. If Toronto were to make Matthews available, Pittsburgh would be one of the more logical landing spots for the former Hart Trophy winner. The Penguins have the assets to make a trade and the cap space to absorb Matthews’ $13.25MM cap hit. But does Dubas have the will to give up his best future assets for a player pushing 30? It’s hard to say, but given the past relationship, it’s not completely out of the question. Matthews would solve some problems in Pittsburgh, and becoming just one of the guys might be best for him, but does the team have enough around him to win if they trade away many of their future top picks and prospects?
Figure Out Erik Karlsson’s Future
Last summer, it seemed a foregone conclusion that Karlsson would be dealt, but the Penguins held on to him, and he was their most important player this season, willing them into the playoffs when Malkin and Crosby missed time in late February and March. The 36-year-old has one year left on his contract, counting $10MM against the Penguins cap (and an additional $1.5MM against the San Jose Sharks cap), and will need a new contract if the Penguins hope to keep him beyond this season. What a new contract will look like remains to be seen, but AFP Analytics has him pegged for a three-year extension worth $6.628MM per season. Karlsson had 15 goals and 51 assists in 75 games this year and significantly cut down on turnovers while playing some of the best defense of his career. Pittsburgh may opt to wait things out on an extension, the way they did with Malkin, but there is one other option on the table, although it’s a limited one.
The Penguins could try to shop Karlsson as they did last summer, but given his age, cap hit, and no-movement clause, it will not be an easy trade to make. It’s hard to say how many teams Karlsson would be open to moving to, but it wouldn’t be many, and he appears to enjoy playing with Crosby and company. There is also the fact that Pittsburgh doesn’t have anything close to a Karlsson in the pipeline. Letang is their next-best option, and he struggled last season and probably needs a lighter workload.
The best move for the Penguins this summer is likely to stand pat with Karlsson and look to extend him during the season if his play remains strong. Trading him away would create too big a hole in the lineup, and extending him too soon could lock Pittsburgh into a regrettable long-term deal with a player approaching 40.
Get Younger
The Penguins’ lineup has become considerably younger in recent seasons, but their top players remain on the wrong side of 30. In fact, Pittsburgh’s top six scorers were all over 30, and their seventh-best scorer (Novak) is 29. It’s a glaring issue in the Penguins’ retool that they haven’t found high-end prospects or young players to mix in with their aging stars, but that doesn’t mean they haven’t found talented impact players. Chinakhov looks like a rising star, and if he can build on last season’s success, he could become a cornerstone piece. The same could be said for Kindel, whose abilities seem to have no limits. Those two make up a solid part of the core, but neither has the feel of a franchise player, though their development path will ultimately decide that.
Among the Penguins’ prospects, goaltender Sergei Murashov could become a superstar and is likely to be an NHL regular next season alongside several other Pittsburgh prospects, such as Rutger McGroarty, Avery Hayes, and perhaps Tristan Broz. That is a nice starting point for the Penguins’ prospect pool, but it’s still missing those top-end options.
Dubas’ biggest long-term need is the one that will be the toughest to acquire: a player he can build his entire team around. It’s going to be difficult because the Penguins are seemingly too good right now to bottom out and get a top draft pick, and other teams are pushing hard to lock up young talent long term. That doesn’t mean future impact players won’t become available; it just means that Dubas, Wes Clark and company will need to do extra due diligence to find a young impact player who has slipped through the cracks at another organization. Easier said than done, but that is why Dubas is one of the highest-paid executives in the NHL.
Photo by Jeff Curry-Imagn Images
“if Thomas’ market falls”
He’s not moving at all, and definitely not for pennies just to get rid of him.