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Cody Ceci

Trade Candidate: Cody Ceci

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With the trade deadline quickly approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that have a good chance to be dealt by February 25th.

Senators defenseman Cody Ceci is one of the more intriguing blueliners to keep an eye on in the weeks ahead.  Although he’s technically not a true rental player in that he’s still under team control for one more season after this one, he’s at a salary level where it’s a toss-up as to whether or not he’ll be qualified this offseason.  His play down the stretch might ultimately influence what happens so there will be a lot riding on these next couple of months.

Contract

Ceci is on a one-year, $4.3MM contract that was awarded in salary arbitration back in August.  That amount will represent his qualifying offer this summer where he will once again be arbitration-eligible.

2018-19

With the departure of Erik Karlsson to San Jose, Ceci entered the season as Ottawa’s undisputed top blueliner on the right side.  He did not fare well in that role last year when Karlsson was out and the results have been similar this season.  His possession numbers aren’t particularly impressive and while he leads the team in blocks by a significant margin, it also means that teams are getting a lot of shot opportunities when he’s on the ice.

On the plus side, his offensive numbers have boosted a little bit this season.  He already has reached his goal output from last season and he’s on pace for the second-highest point total of his career; he’s done so while often facing the top competition as well.  It’s certainly fair to wonder if he’d fare better in a spot where he isn’t expected to shoulder as much of the load as he currently is.

Season Stats

48 GP, 5 goals, 10 assists, 15 points, -19 rating, 6 PIMS, 82 shots, 22:39 ATOI, 42.2 CF%

Potential Suitors

The fact that Ceci could stick around beyond this season makes him a different case than a lot of the players that are going to be dealt over the next three weeks.  The fact he’s not a guaranteed rental opens up some opportunities for selling teams to consider giving him a try as well.

In the East, Tampa Bay’s depth on the right side is a little shaky and Ceci would represent an upgrade.  They have enough salary cap space this season to take on his contract entirely but knowing what’s on the horizon this summer, they would likely have to non-tender him in the summer.  New Jersey isn’t likely to be a true buyer at the deadline but it wouldn’t be shocking to see them inquire about Ceci as their back end has been shaky for a while now and they haven’t had much success when they’ve tried to address that issue in recent years.

Given Ottawa’s preference to deal players out of the conference wherever possible, it’s likely that they will try to move Ceci to the West if presented with similar offers.  He’d represent an upgrade on Nashville’s third pairing but like Tampa Bay, they’d likely have to treat him as a rental player given how much they have tied up in their defense corps already.  Minnesota has added some depth players in recent weeks but someone like Ceci would be a considerable improvement and could even slide onto their second pairing.  He’d help Edmonton but matching money might be a challenge for the Oilers while it’s unlikely that Ottawa would want to take back contracts beyond this season.

Likelihood Of A Trade

A lot of this will depend on how Ottawa views Ceci moving forward.  Do they look at the Jake Muzzin trade and hope that they can elicit a similar return?  If so, the odds of a move will be low.  However, if they’ve decided they’re not going to qualify him (or run the risk of a $5M+ contract in arbitration) and price him as more of a depth player, they should have several suitors for his services and be able to make a trade.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

East Notes: Ceci, Flyers, Dubinsky, Hannikainen

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While the Senators have several notable pending unrestricted free agents, they also have an intriguing restricted free agent on the horizon in defenseman Cody Ceci.  With a $4.3MM qualifying offer due at the end of the season, that may be too rich for Ottawa’s liking.  Accordingly, TSN’s Bob McKenzie noted in an appearance on TSN 1200 (audio link) that Ceci could also be a trade candidate for the Sens down the stretch.  His possession numbers aren’t pretty but he has been miscast in a top role all season long and it’s plausible to think that he would fare better in a lower spot on a contending team in a role that he’s better suited to play at this stage of his career.

Elsewhere out East:

  • With the Flyers moving out Jordan Weal to Arizona earlier in the week, it’s a sign that they’re at least ready to start dealing some depth pieces. With that in mind, NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jordan Hall suggests that winger Michael Raffl and defenseman Christian Folin could be in line for a similar fate.  Raffl has taken a step back offensively this season and has just two goals in 31 games but has scored at least 13 in three of the last four seasons which will help his market.  Folin, meanwhile, has played a sparing role but as he’s a right-shot defender, there should be a little bit of interest.  Both players are set to become unrestricted free agents this summer.
  • The Blue Jackets will be without center Brandon Dubinsky (hamstring) and winger Markus Hannikainen (elbow) for a while, reports Brian Hedger of the Columbus Dispatch. Both players were moved to injured reserve earlier in the week but instead of being out for days like the team had hoped, it appears both will be out longer.

Minor Transactions: 10/24/18

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Just four games on the schedule for this Wednesday evening, but there are some prime matchups as Auston Matthews takes on Patrik Laine in Winnipeg and the hottest line in hockey welcomes the Tampa Bay Lightning to Colorado. As always, we’ll keep track of all the minor moves of the day right here.

  • The Ottawa Senators have sent Paul Carey back to the minor leagues, a common refrain for the team this season. It looks like Ottawa will send everyone they can to the minors in the time between games, as they’re now sitting at just 21 players on the active roster. Cody Ceci is expected to return on Friday, but Mark Borowiecki could be facing suspension in the meantime. They’ll likely recall someone in the next day or so to help them on their upcoming road trip.

East Notes: Point, Dzingel, Duchene, Wilson

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Lightning GM Julien BriseBois held contract extension discussions this week with the agent for center Brayden Point, reports Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic on TSN’s Insider Trading (video link).  However, both sides agreed to shelve those talks until after the season.  He made quite an impact for Tampa Bay last year with 32 goals and 34 assists and is off to a strong start in 2018-19 with four points in as many games heading into tonight’s contest.  That’s going to have him in line for a significant raise on the league-minimum $650K salary ($686K cap hit) that he’s receiving this season even though he won’t have salary arbitration rights.  However, it won’t be until the offseason now until he finds out how much his next deal will be for.

Elsewhere in the East:

  • The Senators are expected to have winger Ryan Dzingel back in the lineup on Saturday against Montreal, notes TSN’s Brent Wallace (Twitter link). He has missed the last two games due to a lower-body injury.  Meanwhile, while the team was hopeful that defenseman Cody Ceci (upper body) and winger Alex Formenton (concussion) would also be ready to play Saturday, head coach Guy Boucher indicated that both will be out until next week at the earliest.
  • Still with the Senators, center Matt Duchene confirmed to reporters, including Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch, that his agent held preliminary extension discussions with GM Pierre Dorion earlier this week. It’s expected that if an agreement can’t be reached between now and the trade deadline in February that he will wind up being dealt as a rental player.  Duchene has a $6MM cap hit with a $6.5MM salary this season and it’s likely that his next contract will eclipse that.
  • Tom Wilson’s suspension appeal with the league was a lengthy one, reports Sportsnet’s John Shannon (Twitter link), who notes that the hearing took over seven hours altogether. However, no ruling from Commissioner Gary Bettman is expected until next week as he will use the weekend to review the transcripts.  Wilson has served the first six games of a 20-game suspension and is currently eligible to return to the Capitals lineup on November 21st.

Ottawa Senators Place Ceci, Dzingel, Formenton On Injured Reserve

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The Ottawa Senators were off to a better than expected start in the early going of the season, but Wednesday night against the Philadelphia Flyers seems to have derailed things quite a bit. In a match that reminded of a past decade with line brawls and physical play, the Senators left the loss with several injuries. Today they have placed Cody Ceci, Ryan Dzingel and Alex Formenton on injured reserve. While the other two are dealing with undisclosed injuries, Formenton has a concussion. Christian Jaros and Nick Paul have been recalled from the AHL to fill in.

The Senators weren’t expected by many people to win many games this season, but after looking at least competitive in the early going there was some hope growing. Players like Formenton and Thomas Chabot were showing what the next wave of talent could bring, while Mark Stone looked worth every penny of the $7.35MM contract he signed this summer. Injuries like this though will truly test the team’s depth, given that it was already razor thin at the NHL level. Jaros looked great in the preseason and could make an impact if inserted into the lineup—something that’s not guaranteed given Ben Harpur’s imminent return—but Paul has struggled so many times before for the Senators that there is little excitement about his return.

A concussion is one of the worst case scenarios in this situation, given the uncertain health effects that they can cause. Formenton is a bright spot for the future given his speed and offensive upside, and also gave fans a little taste of his toughness by getting involved in several scrums and a battle with Philadelphia’s Robert Hagg. Unfortunately it was a cross check delivered to his head by Jori Lehtera that likely caused the injury, which will at the very least slow down Formenton’s early development.

Ottawa Senators Preparing For Huge Roster Turnover

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Late last night after much of the hockey news had died down for the day, the Ottawa Senators released a video of defenseman Mark Borowiecki and owner Eugene Melnyk discussing the future of the organization. Touching on subjects from dressing room leadership to overcoming the low expectations for 2018-19, Melnyk made clear he would be staying with the franchise for a long time and will not move it from Ottawa. He also noted an interesting point about roster construction, explaining how quickly the rebuild will get underway:

This coming year we’re going to have 10 out of the 22 players are going to be new. Meaning they’re either rookies or they’ve played maybe under 10 games last year. Then the following year, it’s going to go up to about 15 of the 22, maybe 16. So that’s a total turnover you know, which is exactly what should be in a rebuild. 

Stripping your roster down to the studs and letting a group of young players grow and mature together is often a strategy for struggling teams who want to rebuild, and the Senators saw a similar situation play out just down the road in Toronto a few years ago. In fact, when the Maple Leafs traveled to Ottawa to open the season in 2016 they had seven rookies in the lineup including Auston Matthews, who scored four times despite the loss. That would appear to be the blue print for Melnyk and the Senators as they look to pull a similarly speedy rebuild.

The question though becomes how do they achieve the goal of having 10 rookies on the roster at the beginning of the year. The team currently has at least 19 players—Mark Stone, Bobby Ryan, Matt Duchene, Zack Smith, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Ryan Dzingel, Tom Pyatt, Magnus Paajarvi, Max McCormick, Colin White, Marian Gaborik, Erik Karlsson, Cody Ceci, Chris Wideman, Ben Harpur, Thomas Chabot, Craig Anderson, Mike Condon and Borowiecki—who played more than 10 games for the organization last season and should at the very least be battling for roster spots. While perhaps Melnyk was exaggerating and players like White and Chabot would still be considered “rookies” given their relative youth and inexperience, it seems likely that there will be substantial turnover in the rest of the group.

We’ve heard for months that Karlsson may be on the block, speculation that will only increase given his complete absence from this video, but other players including Stone and Duchene are both heading into the final years of their contracts and could be shipped out for prospects and picks. If the Senators are committed to a full scorched earth rebuild, they are powerful assets in trade.

At the very least, we should expect the Senators to be involved in trade talks all season. Even though Melnyk and Borowiecki seem excited about playing the underdogs this year, the amount of roster turnover that the owner mentions isn’t possible without some transactions coming through the pipe quickly. Camp starts in just a few days and Senators rookies should be licking their chops on the opportunity that is apparently there for the taking.

Cody Ceci Awarded $4.3MM Contract In Arbitration

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The arbitrator has made a decision and awarded Cody Ceci a one-year $4.3MM contract. Ceci had filed for $6.0MM, while the team had countered with $3.35MM. He will still be a restricted free agent at the end of the deal, but is now prohibited from signing an extension until January.

That is of course if Ceci and the Senators sign the deal at all, given that it is above the walk-away threshold of $4,222,941. The Senators could decide to allow Ceci to go to unrestricted free agency instead of taking the award, though that seems extremely unlikely in their current position. The team relies on Ceci heavily as the anchor of their defensive pairing, and if Erik Karlsson is indeed traded in the next few weeks Ceci would become the de facto #1 defenseman in Ottawa. The 24-year old already logged more than 23 minutes a night for the past two seasons, though that has come with very mixed results.

As the analytical community will point out, Ceci has never put up good possession numbers through his NHL career. That assessment comes in opposition of how the Senators obviously view him, and how his skills present themselves on the ice. A good skater with a quick pass and active stick, Ceci looks like he should be a solid two-way contributor for Ottawa. With just 19 points last season—and only 14 of those at even-strength—the offensive side of his game has still never really materialized, and he’s been given more and more difficult defensive matchups. With partner Dion Phaneuf now gone, Ceci will likely be paired with either Mark Borowiecki or Ben Harpur on the second pairing (assuming Karlsson is still around) to allow young Thomas Chabot more offensive freedom.

Next summer, Ceci will be eligible for arbitration again and would only be eligible for a one-year award. Similar to the situation Mark Stone found himself in this summer, Ceci would have to decide whether he wanted to explore a long-term deal or take his chances on the unrestricted free agent market in 2020. It’s not clear if the rest of the NHL holds him as high as Ottawa does, but there’s no doubt that he would have several suitors interesting in bringing him aboard. The Senators will obviously try to re-sign the young defenseman, but as with almost everyone on their roster they’ll have to consider a trade at some point.

We examined the Senators situation yesterday, and noted that they have almost no one on the books past the 2019-20 season. That allows them to pick and choose how to rebuild their franchise after falling so far in the last year, and Ceci will be a key decision. Since an arbitration award next summer will likely be even higher than the $4.3MM, they’ll have to decide whether he’s a core piece going forward or just more trade fodder to cash in for future assets.

Negotiation Notes: Arbitration Hearings, Nylander, Islanders

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Two more players sat down for arbitration hearings today, as Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston reports that neither the Ottawa Senators and Cody Ceci nor the Dallas Stars and Gemel Smith were able to come to terms beforehand. Both situations bear watching over the next 48 hours, as they must agree to a deal in that window or else get stuck with the arbitrator’s award. Ceci’s case is similar to that of the Winnipeg Jets’ Jacob Trouba, which went through to a decision earlier this off-season. Both Ceci and Trouba filed at a number that shares few reasonable comparisons – Trouba at $7MM and Ceci at $6MM. While Trouba’s side likely tried to use several recent cases of offensive-minded defenseman who settled for $5.5MM and then argue that he is the superior defensive player, Ceci does not have the comparable offense to make as strong a case. As such, he is unlikely to get the $5.5MM award that Trouba landed, the midpoint of his case. Instead, look for Ceci to get somewhere in the $4-4.5MM range. Smith’s is a much different scenario, similar to another previously decided case this summer, that of Calgary Flames defenseman Brett Kulak. In both cases, the team offered only a minimum, two-way contract while the player filed at a higher value for a one-way deal –  Kulak at $1.15MM and Smith at $900K. While Kulak was able to land a $850K one-way deal from the arbitrator, he also played in 71 games in the platform year, while Smith only suited up for 46. Smith faces a far tougher argument that he is a bona fide NHL player at this point in his career.

  • Restricted free agent William Nylander continues to negotiate with the Toronto Maple Leafs, but the explosive young forward is not interested in a short-term bridge deal. Sportsnet’s Luke Fox suggests that Nylander is only talking about a long-term deal right now. While the Leafs might be trying to play it safe, with both Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner also in need of extensions next summer (along with the majority of their roster), Nylander doesn’t seem willing to take a bridge deal only to watch his fellow budding stars sign long-term contracts instead. Nylander may have hit restricted free agency earlier than Matthews and Marner, but the trio all have similar games played and points since Nylander only played in 22 games with Toronto in his first season before the other two joined the squad. All three have been remarkably consistent early on and, given their similarities, it is hard to blame Nylander for wanting a long-term deal when he knows that Matthews and Marner are likely to get them.
  • While it makes sense that the New York Islanders have focused on adding forwards and a new goaltender this season, after losing superstar center John Tavares and starting goalie Jaroslav Halak to free agency, Newsday’s Andrew Gross thinks it’s strange that the team has not added to the blue line at all. The team re-signed Thomas Hickey and Ryan Pulock, but have added no one else while losing Calvin de Haan and opting not to bring back Brandon Davidson and Dennis Seidenberg. Gross notes that recently re-signed center Brock Nelson, an impending free agent, could be used as a trade chip to add to a blue line that struggled greatly last season. There are certainly teams out there with a plethora of defensemen who could use Nelson up front. The Carolina Hurricanes, Boston Bruins, and Winnipeg Jets are clubs that fit the bill, but Nelson would not be nearly enough to land a Justin Faulk, Torey Krug, or Jacob Trouba and an expendable piece that he might fetch, like a Trevor van Riemsdyk, Adam McQuaid, or Tucker Poolman might not be enough to fix the Islanders blue line. New York may have to up the ante beyond Nelson to land a difference-maker on the back end.

Cody Ceci, Ottawa Senators Exchange Arbitration Filings

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With Garnet Hathaway re-signing this morning, the next player scheduled for an arbitration hearing is Cody Ceci of the Ottawa Senators. That meeting is on the books for Wednesday in Toronto, and Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reports on the filings from both sides. The Senators have filed a $3.35MM ask, while Ceci is looking for $6.0MM. As usual, the ruling will likely come down somewhere in the middle of those two numbers should they not come to an agreement in the next few days.

Ceci, 24, is a player that has drawn quite a lot of attention over the years due to his continual inclusion in trade negotiations. In almost every discussion about the Senators and their pursuit of a high-end player, Ceci has been part of a potential return. That inclusion has been derided by the analytical community at times given Ceci’s poor possession numbers, but he continues to be an extremely valued piece of the Ottawa blue line. In fact, he may be the team’s top option should Erik Karlsson be traded before the season begins. That would put an incredible amount of pressure on the young right-handed defenseman, who has failed to put up big offensive numbers despite obvious ability and huge opportunity over the past few years.

Logging more than 23 minutes a night in each of the past two seasons, Ceci has been deployed in a defensive role (usually alongside Dion Phaneuf, who is now part of the Los Angeles Kings organization) to balance some of the offensive starts given to Karlsson. Though that is certainly a limiting factor in Ceci’s offensive numbers, there are other warts in his game that hinder his impact for the team and keep him from really reaching the top echelon of defensemen in the NHL. Those numbers should also lead an arbitrator to rule for much less than the $6.0MM ask, though probably well above the team’s filing as well. Ceci earned just $2.8MM last season, and should get a nice raise either way.

The Senators will almost certainly choose a one-year contract for their young defenseman, as he is scheduled to hit unrestricted free agency after the 2019-20 season. Leaving with just a one-year deal will allow them to continue to negotiate with him as a restricted free agent next summer, and try to get him to re-sign long-term. Otherwise, he could hit the open market as a 26-year old and really cash in as a right-handed option. Even with his poor possession numbers, there are still many who see Ceci as a key defender for the Senators and one who could step into top-four minutes for many teams around the league.

Remaining Restricted Free Agents

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We’re getting closer to turning the calendar over to August, and there is still a lot of work to do for teams around the NHL. 10 arbitration cases remain unsettled, including for star players like William Karlsson and Mark Stone. Both will be extremely interesting to follow, as their respective teams have tough decisions on their hands.

For the Vegas Golden Knights, do you hand out a long-term expensive contract to a player that is still relatively unproven. Though Karlsson scored 43 goals this season he had just 18 career tallies beforehand, and finished this season with an impossible 23.4% shooting percentage. There is almost no chance that he can maintain that rate going forward, meaning his huge 2017-18 season may be a career-high. On the other side of that coin though is the increased opportunity he was given after switching teams, which could provide a realistic chance for him to be a 30-goal, 65-point player going forward. Signing him now would likely get you a bit of a discount on that type of scoring threat, though Vegas would assume almost all of the risk.

In Ottawa, there’s no clear direction on how the team will deal with Stone’s impending unrestricted free agency. Obviously one of the team’s most talented players, an arbitration award of one year would stop the Senators from negotiating with Stone’s camp until January on any potential extension and could make him a prime trade candidate. The 26-year old posted his fourth consecutive 20-goal season in 2017-18 despite playing in just 58 games. With all the turmoil in Ottawa it could be difficult to convince him to stick around long-term.

Beyond the arbitration cases though there is an incredible amount of talent left on the RFA board. Dylan Larkin, William Nylander, Sam Reinhart, Shea Theodore, Josh Morrissey and many others remain unsigned and could all be looking at expensive long-term deals with their respective clubs. These players are already excellent players in the NHL before they’ve even become eligible for arbitration and could really grind the offseason to a halt if they decide to hold out. There’s no indication that anyone is planning a long negotiation, but we’re now almost a month into the signing period without any deals.

Below is the full list of unsigned restricted free agents:

Ondrej Kase (ANA)
Nick Ritchie (ANA)
Marek Langhamer (ARZ)
Sam Reinhart (BUF)
Noah Hanifin (CGY)
Garnet Hathaway (CGY) – Scheduled for arbitration, July 30
Hunter Shinkaruk (CGY)
Patrik Nemeth (COL) – Scheduled for arbitration, August 4
Gemel Smith (DAL) – Scheduled for arbitration, August 1
Dylan Larkin (DET)
Matt Puempel (DET)
Darnell Nurse (EDM)
Michael McCarron (MTL)
Kerby Rychel (MTL)
Miikka Salomaki (NSH) – Scheduled for arbitration, August 2
Kevin Rooney (NJD)
Steven Santini (NJD)
Miles Wood (NJD)
Kevin Hayes (NYR) – Scheduled for arbitration, August 2
Ryan Spooner (NYR) – Scheduled for arbitration, August 4
Cody Ceci (OTT) – Scheduled for arbitration, August 1
Mark Stone (OTT) – Scheduled for arbitration, August 3
Robert Hagg (PHI)
Jordan Schmaltz (STL)
William Nylander (TOR)
William Karlsson (VGK) – Scheduled for arbitration, August 4
Shea Theodore (VGK)
Eric Comrie (WPG)
Nicolas Kerdiles (WPG)
J.C. Lipon (WPG)
Josh Morrissey (WPG)
Nic Petan (WPG)

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