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East Notes: Point, Dzingel, Duchene, Wilson

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Lightning GM Julien BriseBois held contract extension discussions this week with the agent for center Brayden Point, reports Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic on TSN’s Insider Trading (video link).  However, both sides agreed to shelve those talks until after the season.  He made quite an impact for Tampa Bay last year with 32 goals and 34 assists and is off to a strong start in 2018-19 with four points in as many games heading into tonight’s contest.  That’s going to have him in line for a significant raise on the league-minimum $650K salary ($686K cap hit) that he’s receiving this season even though he won’t have salary arbitration rights.  However, it won’t be until the offseason now until he finds out how much his next deal will be for.

Elsewhere in the East:

  • The Senators are expected to have winger Ryan Dzingel back in the lineup on Saturday against Montreal, notes TSN’s Brent Wallace (Twitter link). He has missed the last two games due to a lower-body injury.  Meanwhile, while the team was hopeful that defenseman Cody Ceci (upper body) and winger Alex Formenton (concussion) would also be ready to play Saturday, head coach Guy Boucher indicated that both will be out until next week at the earliest.
  • Still with the Senators, center Matt Duchene confirmed to reporters, including Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch, that his agent held preliminary extension discussions with GM Pierre Dorion earlier this week. It’s expected that if an agreement can’t be reached between now and the trade deadline in February that he will wind up being dealt as a rental player.  Duchene has a $6MM cap hit with a $6.5MM salary this season and it’s likely that his next contract will eclipse that.
  • Tom Wilson’s suspension appeal with the league was a lengthy one, reports Sportsnet’s John Shannon (Twitter link), who notes that the hearing took over seven hours altogether. However, no ruling from Commissioner Gary Bettman is expected until next week as he will use the weekend to review the transcripts.  Wilson has served the first six games of a 20-game suspension and is currently eligible to return to the Capitals lineup on November 21st.

Ottawa Senators Place Ceci, Dzingel, Formenton On Injured Reserve

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The Ottawa Senators were off to a better than expected start in the early going of the season, but Wednesday night against the Philadelphia Flyers seems to have derailed things quite a bit. In a match that reminded of a past decade with line brawls and physical play, the Senators left the loss with several injuries. Today they have placed Cody Ceci, Ryan Dzingel and Alex Formenton on injured reserve. While the other two are dealing with undisclosed injuries, Formenton has a concussion. Christian Jaros and Nick Paul have been recalled from the AHL to fill in.

The Senators weren’t expected by many people to win many games this season, but after looking at least competitive in the early going there was some hope growing. Players like Formenton and Thomas Chabot were showing what the next wave of talent could bring, while Mark Stone looked worth every penny of the $7.35MM contract he signed this summer. Injuries like this though will truly test the team’s depth, given that it was already razor thin at the NHL level. Jaros looked great in the preseason and could make an impact if inserted into the lineup—something that’s not guaranteed given Ben Harpur’s imminent return—but Paul has struggled so many times before for the Senators that there is little excitement about his return.

A concussion is one of the worst case scenarios in this situation, given the uncertain health effects that they can cause. Formenton is a bright spot for the future given his speed and offensive upside, and also gave fans a little taste of his toughness by getting involved in several scrums and a battle with Philadelphia’s Robert Hagg. Unfortunately it was a cross check delivered to his head by Jori Lehtera that likely caused the injury, which will at the very least slow down Formenton’s early development.

Ottawa Senators Preparing For Huge Roster Turnover

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Late last night after much of the hockey news had died down for the day, the Ottawa Senators released a video of defenseman Mark Borowiecki and owner Eugene Melnyk discussing the future of the organization. Touching on subjects from dressing room leadership to overcoming the low expectations for 2018-19, Melnyk made clear he would be staying with the franchise for a long time and will not move it from Ottawa. He also noted an interesting point about roster construction, explaining how quickly the rebuild will get underway:

This coming year we’re going to have 10 out of the 22 players are going to be new. Meaning they’re either rookies or they’ve played maybe under 10 games last year. Then the following year, it’s going to go up to about 15 of the 22, maybe 16. So that’s a total turnover you know, which is exactly what should be in a rebuild. 

Stripping your roster down to the studs and letting a group of young players grow and mature together is often a strategy for struggling teams who want to rebuild, and the Senators saw a similar situation play out just down the road in Toronto a few years ago. In fact, when the Maple Leafs traveled to Ottawa to open the season in 2016 they had seven rookies in the lineup including Auston Matthews, who scored four times despite the loss. That would appear to be the blue print for Melnyk and the Senators as they look to pull a similarly speedy rebuild.

The question though becomes how do they achieve the goal of having 10 rookies on the roster at the beginning of the year. The team currently has at least 19 players—Mark Stone, Bobby Ryan, Matt Duchene, Zack Smith, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Ryan Dzingel, Tom Pyatt, Magnus Paajarvi, Max McCormick, Colin White, Marian Gaborik, Erik Karlsson, Cody Ceci, Chris Wideman, Ben Harpur, Thomas Chabot, Craig Anderson, Mike Condon and Borowiecki—who played more than 10 games for the organization last season and should at the very least be battling for roster spots. While perhaps Melnyk was exaggerating and players like White and Chabot would still be considered “rookies” given their relative youth and inexperience, it seems likely that there will be substantial turnover in the rest of the group.

We’ve heard for months that Karlsson may be on the block, speculation that will only increase given his complete absence from this video, but other players including Stone and Duchene are both heading into the final years of their contracts and could be shipped out for prospects and picks. If the Senators are committed to a full scorched earth rebuild, they are powerful assets in trade.

At the very least, we should expect the Senators to be involved in trade talks all season. Even though Melnyk and Borowiecki seem excited about playing the underdogs this year, the amount of roster turnover that the owner mentions isn’t possible without some transactions coming through the pipe quickly. Camp starts in just a few days and Senators rookies should be licking their chops on the opportunity that is apparently there for the taking.

Cody Ceci Awarded $4.3MM Contract In Arbitration

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The arbitrator has made a decision and awarded Cody Ceci a one-year $4.3MM contract. Ceci had filed for $6.0MM, while the team had countered with $3.35MM. He will still be a restricted free agent at the end of the deal, but is now prohibited from signing an extension until January.

That is of course if Ceci and the Senators sign the deal at all, given that it is above the walk-away threshold of $4,222,941. The Senators could decide to allow Ceci to go to unrestricted free agency instead of taking the award, though that seems extremely unlikely in their current position. The team relies on Ceci heavily as the anchor of their defensive pairing, and if Erik Karlsson is indeed traded in the next few weeks Ceci would become the de facto #1 defenseman in Ottawa. The 24-year old already logged more than 23 minutes a night for the past two seasons, though that has come with very mixed results.

As the analytical community will point out, Ceci has never put up good possession numbers through his NHL career. That assessment comes in opposition of how the Senators obviously view him, and how his skills present themselves on the ice. A good skater with a quick pass and active stick, Ceci looks like he should be a solid two-way contributor for Ottawa. With just 19 points last season—and only 14 of those at even-strength—the offensive side of his game has still never really materialized, and he’s been given more and more difficult defensive matchups. With partner Dion Phaneuf now gone, Ceci will likely be paired with either Mark Borowiecki or Ben Harpur on the second pairing (assuming Karlsson is still around) to allow young Thomas Chabot more offensive freedom.

Next summer, Ceci will be eligible for arbitration again and would only be eligible for a one-year award. Similar to the situation Mark Stone found himself in this summer, Ceci would have to decide whether he wanted to explore a long-term deal or take his chances on the unrestricted free agent market in 2020. It’s not clear if the rest of the NHL holds him as high as Ottawa does, but there’s no doubt that he would have several suitors interesting in bringing him aboard. The Senators will obviously try to re-sign the young defenseman, but as with almost everyone on their roster they’ll have to consider a trade at some point.

We examined the Senators situation yesterday, and noted that they have almost no one on the books past the 2019-20 season. That allows them to pick and choose how to rebuild their franchise after falling so far in the last year, and Ceci will be a key decision. Since an arbitration award next summer will likely be even higher than the $4.3MM, they’ll have to decide whether he’s a core piece going forward or just more trade fodder to cash in for future assets.

Negotiation Notes: Arbitration Hearings, Nylander, Islanders

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Two more players sat down for arbitration hearings today, as Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston reports that neither the Ottawa Senators and Cody Ceci nor the Dallas Stars and Gemel Smith were able to come to terms beforehand. Both situations bear watching over the next 48 hours, as they must agree to a deal in that window or else get stuck with the arbitrator’s award. Ceci’s case is similar to that of the Winnipeg Jets’ Jacob Trouba, which went through to a decision earlier this off-season. Both Ceci and Trouba filed at a number that shares few reasonable comparisons – Trouba at $7MM and Ceci at $6MM. While Trouba’s side likely tried to use several recent cases of offensive-minded defenseman who settled for $5.5MM and then argue that he is the superior defensive player, Ceci does not have the comparable offense to make as strong a case. As such, he is unlikely to get the $5.5MM award that Trouba landed, the midpoint of his case. Instead, look for Ceci to get somewhere in the $4-4.5MM range. Smith’s is a much different scenario, similar to another previously decided case this summer, that of Calgary Flames defenseman Brett Kulak. In both cases, the team offered only a minimum, two-way contract while the player filed at a higher value for a one-way deal –  Kulak at $1.15MM and Smith at $900K. While Kulak was able to land a $850K one-way deal from the arbitrator, he also played in 71 games in the platform year, while Smith only suited up for 46. Smith faces a far tougher argument that he is a bona fide NHL player at this point in his career.

  • Restricted free agent William Nylander continues to negotiate with the Toronto Maple Leafs, but the explosive young forward is not interested in a short-term bridge deal. Sportsnet’s Luke Fox suggests that Nylander is only talking about a long-term deal right now. While the Leafs might be trying to play it safe, with both Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner also in need of extensions next summer (along with the majority of their roster), Nylander doesn’t seem willing to take a bridge deal only to watch his fellow budding stars sign long-term contracts instead. Nylander may have hit restricted free agency earlier than Matthews and Marner, but the trio all have similar games played and points since Nylander only played in 22 games with Toronto in his first season before the other two joined the squad. All three have been remarkably consistent early on and, given their similarities, it is hard to blame Nylander for wanting a long-term deal when he knows that Matthews and Marner are likely to get them.
  • While it makes sense that the New York Islanders have focused on adding forwards and a new goaltender this season, after losing superstar center John Tavares and starting goalie Jaroslav Halak to free agency, Newsday’s Andrew Gross thinks it’s strange that the team has not added to the blue line at all. The team re-signed Thomas Hickey and Ryan Pulock, but have added no one else while losing Calvin de Haan and opting not to bring back Brandon Davidson and Dennis Seidenberg. Gross notes that recently re-signed center Brock Nelson, an impending free agent, could be used as a trade chip to add to a blue line that struggled greatly last season. There are certainly teams out there with a plethora of defensemen who could use Nelson up front. The Carolina Hurricanes, Boston Bruins, and Winnipeg Jets are clubs that fit the bill, but Nelson would not be nearly enough to land a Justin Faulk, Torey Krug, or Jacob Trouba and an expendable piece that he might fetch, like a Trevor van Riemsdyk, Adam McQuaid, or Tucker Poolman might not be enough to fix the Islanders blue line. New York may have to up the ante beyond Nelson to land a difference-maker on the back end.

Cody Ceci, Ottawa Senators Exchange Arbitration Filings

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With Garnet Hathaway re-signing this morning, the next player scheduled for an arbitration hearing is Cody Ceci of the Ottawa Senators. That meeting is on the books for Wednesday in Toronto, and Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reports on the filings from both sides. The Senators have filed a $3.35MM ask, while Ceci is looking for $6.0MM. As usual, the ruling will likely come down somewhere in the middle of those two numbers should they not come to an agreement in the next few days.

Ceci, 24, is a player that has drawn quite a lot of attention over the years due to his continual inclusion in trade negotiations. In almost every discussion about the Senators and their pursuit of a high-end player, Ceci has been part of a potential return. That inclusion has been derided by the analytical community at times given Ceci’s poor possession numbers, but he continues to be an extremely valued piece of the Ottawa blue line. In fact, he may be the team’s top option should Erik Karlsson be traded before the season begins. That would put an incredible amount of pressure on the young right-handed defenseman, who has failed to put up big offensive numbers despite obvious ability and huge opportunity over the past few years.

Logging more than 23 minutes a night in each of the past two seasons, Ceci has been deployed in a defensive role (usually alongside Dion Phaneuf, who is now part of the Los Angeles Kings organization) to balance some of the offensive starts given to Karlsson. Though that is certainly a limiting factor in Ceci’s offensive numbers, there are other warts in his game that hinder his impact for the team and keep him from really reaching the top echelon of defensemen in the NHL. Those numbers should also lead an arbitrator to rule for much less than the $6.0MM ask, though probably well above the team’s filing as well. Ceci earned just $2.8MM last season, and should get a nice raise either way.

The Senators will almost certainly choose a one-year contract for their young defenseman, as he is scheduled to hit unrestricted free agency after the 2019-20 season. Leaving with just a one-year deal will allow them to continue to negotiate with him as a restricted free agent next summer, and try to get him to re-sign long-term. Otherwise, he could hit the open market as a 26-year old and really cash in as a right-handed option. Even with his poor possession numbers, there are still many who see Ceci as a key defender for the Senators and one who could step into top-four minutes for many teams around the league.

Remaining Restricted Free Agents

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We’re getting closer to turning the calendar over to August, and there is still a lot of work to do for teams around the NHL. 10 arbitration cases remain unsettled, including for star players like William Karlsson and Mark Stone. Both will be extremely interesting to follow, as their respective teams have tough decisions on their hands.

For the Vegas Golden Knights, do you hand out a long-term expensive contract to a player that is still relatively unproven. Though Karlsson scored 43 goals this season he had just 18 career tallies beforehand, and finished this season with an impossible 23.4% shooting percentage. There is almost no chance that he can maintain that rate going forward, meaning his huge 2017-18 season may be a career-high. On the other side of that coin though is the increased opportunity he was given after switching teams, which could provide a realistic chance for him to be a 30-goal, 65-point player going forward. Signing him now would likely get you a bit of a discount on that type of scoring threat, though Vegas would assume almost all of the risk.

In Ottawa, there’s no clear direction on how the team will deal with Stone’s impending unrestricted free agency. Obviously one of the team’s most talented players, an arbitration award of one year would stop the Senators from negotiating with Stone’s camp until January on any potential extension and could make him a prime trade candidate. The 26-year old posted his fourth consecutive 20-goal season in 2017-18 despite playing in just 58 games. With all the turmoil in Ottawa it could be difficult to convince him to stick around long-term.

Beyond the arbitration cases though there is an incredible amount of talent left on the RFA board. Dylan Larkin, William Nylander, Sam Reinhart, Shea Theodore, Josh Morrissey and many others remain unsigned and could all be looking at expensive long-term deals with their respective clubs. These players are already excellent players in the NHL before they’ve even become eligible for arbitration and could really grind the offseason to a halt if they decide to hold out. There’s no indication that anyone is planning a long negotiation, but we’re now almost a month into the signing period without any deals.

Below is the full list of unsigned restricted free agents:

Ondrej Kase (ANA)
Nick Ritchie (ANA)
Marek Langhamer (ARZ)
Sam Reinhart (BUF)
Noah Hanifin (CGY)
Garnet Hathaway (CGY) – Scheduled for arbitration, July 30
Hunter Shinkaruk (CGY)
Patrik Nemeth (COL) – Scheduled for arbitration, August 4
Gemel Smith (DAL) – Scheduled for arbitration, August 1
Dylan Larkin (DET)
Matt Puempel (DET)
Darnell Nurse (EDM)
Michael McCarron (MTL)
Kerby Rychel (MTL)
Miikka Salomaki (NSH) – Scheduled for arbitration, August 2
Kevin Rooney (NJD)
Steven Santini (NJD)
Miles Wood (NJD)
Kevin Hayes (NYR) – Scheduled for arbitration, August 2
Ryan Spooner (NYR) – Scheduled for arbitration, August 4
Cody Ceci (OTT) – Scheduled for arbitration, August 1
Mark Stone (OTT) – Scheduled for arbitration, August 3
Robert Hagg (PHI)
Jordan Schmaltz (STL)
William Nylander (TOR)
William Karlsson (VGK) – Scheduled for arbitration, August 4
Shea Theodore (VGK)
Eric Comrie (WPG)
Nicolas Kerdiles (WPG)
J.C. Lipon (WPG)
Josh Morrissey (WPG)
Nic Petan (WPG)

Full 2018 Arbitration Hearing Schedule

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Almost four dozen players decided to file for salary arbitration this summer, and while some of them have already been signed to contracts many others now know when their hearing will take place. The NHLPA released the full schedule of hearings, spread out from July 20th to August 4th.  Remember that players can sign up until an arbitrator awards a contract, including in the short window after the hearing.

July 20

Jacob Trouba – Team filing: $4.0MM, Player filing: $7.0MM. Awarded one-year, $5.5MM contract.

July 23

Brett Kulak – Team filing: $650K, two-way contract, Player filing: $1.15MM, one-way contract. Awarded one-year, $850K contract.

July 24

Brandon Montour – Team filing: $1.5MM, Player filing: $4.5MM Settled before hearing, two years $6.775MM

July 30

Garnet Hathaway – Team filing: $650K, Player filing: $975K Settled before hearing, one-year $850K

August 1

Cody Ceci – Team filing: $3.35MM, Player filing $6.0MM. Awarded one-year, $4.3MM contract.
Gemel Smith – Team filing: two-way contract, Player filing: $900K. Awarded one-year one-way, $720K contract.

August 3

Mark Stone – Team filing: $5.0MM, Player filing $9.0MM Settled before hearing, one-year, $7.35MM

August 4

William Karlsson – Team filing: $3.5MM, Player filing $6.5MM

Remaining 2018 Arbitration Dates

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As usual, arbitration hearings scheduled for later this month have been getting cancelled every day as teams lock up their restricted free agents. Hearings are scheduled each year between July 20th and August 4th, but we’ve already seen 18 players that filed for player-elected salary arbitration reach a settlement with their respective teams. Those players are listed below, with their contract details:

Elias Lindholm (CGY) – 6 years, $4.85MM AAV
Trevor van Riemsdyk (CAR) – 2 years, $2.3MM AAV
Matthew Nieto (COL) – 2 years, $1.98MM AAV
Devin Shore (DAL) – 2 years, $2.3MM AAV
Joel Armia (MTL) – 1 year, $1.85MM AAV
Phillip Danault (MTL) – 3 years, $3.08MM AAV
Blake Coleman (NJD) – 3 years, $1.8MM AAV
Stefan Noesen (NJD) – 1 year, $1.73MM AAV
Jimmy Vesey (NYR) – 2 years, $2.28MM AAV
Taylor Leier (PHI) – 1 year, $720K AAV
Alex Lyon (PHI) – 2 years, $750K AAV
Jamie Oleksiak (PIT) – 3 years, $2.14MM AAV
Dmitrij Jaskin (STL) – 1 year, $1.1MM AAV
Oskar Sundqvist (STL) – 1 year, $700K AAV
Colin Miller (VGK) – 4 years, $3.88MM AAV
Liam O’Brien (WSH) – 1 year, $650K AAV
Connor Hellebuyck (WPG) – 6 years, $6.17MM AAV
Tomas Nosek (VGK) – 1 year, $962.5K AAV

The remaining arbitration schedule looks like this:

July 20

Chris Tierney (SJS)
Jacob Trouba (WPG)

July 22

Adam Lowry (WPG)

July 23

Brett Kulak (CGY)
Mathew Dumba (MIN)

July 24

Brandon Montour (ANA)

July 25

Joel Edmundson (STL)
Brandon Tanev (WPG)

July 27

Mark Jankowski (CGY)

July 28

David Rittich (CGY)
Jason Zucker (MIN)

July 29

Troy Stecher (VAN)

July 30

Garnet Hathaway (CGY)
MacKenzie Weegar (FLA)
Marko Dano (WPG)

July 31

Brady Skjei (NYR)

August 1

Cody Ceci (OTT)
Gemel Smith (DAL)

August 2

Miikka Salomaki (NSH)
Kevin Hayes (NYR)

August 3

Mattias Janmark (DAL)
Mark Stone (OTT)
Brock Nelson (NYI)

August 4

Ryan Spooner (NYR)
Patrik Nemeth (DAL)
William Karlsson (VGK)

Salary Cap Floor Should Not Pose Problems For Any Team In 2018-19

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The purpose of the salary cap in the NHL is to maintain a sense of competitive balance across the league. That means both limiting how much a team can spend, the salary cap ceiling, but also ensuring that every team is competitive with a minimum expenditure, the salary cap floor. Some teams, generally those in smaller markets or undergoing rebuilds, tend to try to toe the line of the salary cap floor, paying as close to the minimum as possible for their roster. In years past, some teams have even struggled to hit that mark, taking on injured players or overpaying players in order to pass the floor. It’s unlikely that any of the 31 franchises will face that problem in 2018-19.

This season, with a corresponding jump in the salary cap ceiling, the floor moved to $58.8MM. With the bulk of unrestricted free agency accounted for, just three teams currently sit below that mark: the New Jersey Devils, New York Rangers, and Winnipeg Jets. However, both the Rangers and Jets can immediately be crossed off as a salary floor concern. The pair are perhaps the two teams with the most potential salary tied up in salary arbitration this off-season.

The Jets currently have the lowest projected payroll in the league, with a 16-man roster that accounts for approximately $52.7MM. However, Winnipeg’s list of restricted free agents who have filed for arbitration include Vezina candidate Connor Hellebuyck, defenseman Jacob Trouba, and forwards Adam Lowry, Chris Tanev, and Marko Dano, as well as defenseman Tucker Poolman who did not file. Those six players could easily combine for more than $20MM in combined salary when all is said and done, putting the Jets well clear of the floor and closer to the ceiling. Defenseman Josh Morrissey, who is not arbitration eligible also needs a new contract. Winnipeg is far from a floor concern.

In New York, the Rangers sit at $55.8MM in projected cap committed to 16 players, just $3MM shy of the floor. They also need to re-sign a majority of their young core, with forwards Kevin Hayes, Ryan Spooner, and Jimmy Vesey and defenseman Brady Skjei having filed for arbitration. The Rangers could pass the floor by extending just one of those players, nevertheless all four. New deals for those three forwards still leaves New York one or two shy of a full roster as well, meaning more salary will come into the fold via promotion or an additional acquisition.

As for the Devils, New Jersey is already close to the floor at a projected $56.4MM for 19 players. Forwards Blake Coleman and Stefan Noesen have filed for arbitration and the deals for both could be enough to push the Devils to where they need to be. Even if it doesn’t, the team will still need to sign non-arbitration eligible RFA’s Miles Wood and Steve Santini, whose deals should definitely be enough. New Jersey will likely be a team that hovers close to the floor next season; that didn’t stop them from making the playoffs in 2017-18, though.

Perhaps the only team who should be legitimately concerned about the salary cap floor next season in Ottawa. The Senators and owner Eugene Melnyk have made it no secret that they are trying to shed salary and come in as close to the minimum as possible. Right now, the team sits just $3MM above the floor at a projected $61.8MM roster for 20 players. However, that isn’t including the arbitration resolutions for both defenseman Cody Ceci and forward Mark Stone. Those two deals will put Ottawa well above the floor. Even if the team was to trade star defenseman Erik Karlsson, they should remain above the floor, especially with additional salaries likely to be added in the trade return. The one scenario in which Melnyk could succeed in dropping significant salary would be if both Karlsson and Bobby Ryan were to be traded away. The resulting $13.75MM loss in payable salary would more than offset the contracts for Stone and Ceci and likely the contracts of those players coming back as well, potentially dropping the team below $58.8MM. Yet, even in that case, the Senators’ efforts to fill out their roster after losing Karlsson and Ryan – either by promotion or acquisition – could easily be used to get back to that mark.

The salary cap floor was never intended to be used as a target for teams to hover above and spend as little as possible. The goal of the NHL is have each and every team be competitive, not simply trying to maximize profits. As such, the 2018-19 season has some parity promise as seemingly no team will struggle to get over the floor or have to use contracts for the old and injured to get there. For the first time in years, every team seems set to be competitive and comfortably over the minimum cap hit.

All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.com.

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