NHL Snapshots: Toews, Red Wings Logo, Klingberg
Chicago Blackhawks star forward Jonathan Toews spent all of last offseason training harder than he ever had and while the 29-year-old had a solid season, his numbers dropped, particularly his goal-scoring as his 21 goals last year were the lowest number of his career. According to Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston, Toews admitted that over-training might have been a mistake and is looking to make changes to his offseason work habits.
“Last summer is the first time I really got the time to train really hard and I might have overdone it in the wrong way. Just worrying about power and strength all the time,” Toews said. “I came into the season and just couldn’t move, just felt slow. I mean the game is so fast nowadays. It’s kind of a wake-up call in that sense.”
Toews said that he has been focusing on loosening up his body and improving his mobility. He adds that he is taking ideas from some of the young stars like Toronto’s Auston Matthews and Edmonton’s Connor McDavid and intends to devote time to skating and working on his offensive game.
- The Detroit Red Wings and the NHL are considering legal action after white nationalists used an altered form of the Red Wings logo during the “Unite the Right” rally in Charlottesville, Va. this weekend. The Red Wings tweeted that they vehemently disagree and are not associated with the event and will explore any legal action possible.
- Sportsnet’s Sonny Sachdeva writes that Dallas Stars defenseman John Klingberg says that he is looking forward to working with new coach Ken Hitchcock this year in hopes that the veteran coach can emphasize defense more in hopes of bringing the Stars back to the playoffs. The 24-year-old blueliner has been one of the team’s brightest offensive stars, putting up a career-high 13 goals last year to go with 36 assists for 49 points. Klingberg who led the team in average ice-time (23:21) last season would embrace a coach that emphasized defense. The Stars went from winning the Central Division in 2015-16 to a sixth-place finish last year.
U.S. National Development Program Announces 2017-18 Schedule
It’s hard to make an argument that the American junior hockey system is superior to the Canadian junior hockey system. Sure, the USHL has been improving every year and the growth of college hockey has lead to a greater proportion of NHL draft picks coming out of the U.S. junior ranks than ever before. Still, the depth of talent and caliber of player coming out of the OHL, WHL, and QMJHL will almost always stand up to the best of the USHL or other lower tier leagues. However, the one thing Canadian juniors does not have that has been wildly successful in the United States is the presence of a National Development Program.
Located in Plymouth, Michigan the USNTDP houses both a U-18 and U-17 team, both of which travel throughout the country and sometimes even the globe to play hockey at many levels. The 2017-18 schedule, announced today, highlights the uniqueness of the national program. Unlike Canadian juniors, which can dominate the lives of the players, the teams largely travel on weekends, freeing the players up to live somewhat normal lives as high school students during the week. Additionally, rather than play against the same competition all year long, the team mixes it up quite a lot. Both squads play a majority of their games against local USHL competition and both also participate in national and international tournaments, but the U-17 team also squares off against teams from the Tier II NAHL, while the U-18 team is tested in exhibition games against NCAA programs from around the country. The U-18 team is scheduled to go up against college power houses like Harvard, Boston University, North Dakota, and Notre Dame this season.
Recruited from around the country, USNTDP players are the best of the best of junior-age Americans. The program has produced current NHLers like Auston Matthews, Jack Eichel, Patrick Kane, Phil Kessel, Seth Jones, and Zach Werenski just to name a few, with Calder candidates like Charlie McAvoy, Clayton Keller, and Alex Tuch about to make the jump as well. The prospect machine doesn’t show any signs of slowing down, so don’t miss the opportunity to catch the team in action if any of their games are with reachable distance. Current U-18 members include 2018 projected top picks like Joel Farabee, Bode Wilde, Oliver Wahlstrom and Jake Wise, who you’ll know soon enough as budding NHL stars.
Cost Per Point: The Best Value Deals In The NHL
When working with a salary cap, especially one that has not been increasing as expected in recent year, it is vital for general managers to get the most production out of their players. Teams with players who meet the expected level of production implied by their contracts and teams that lack wasted dollars in bad, expensive deals are often the same teams that thrive in today’s NHL. Forget market size or free agent appeal, the key to a winning franchise nowadays is getting the best bang for your buck on every player on the roster. While no player can be fully quantified by their scoring, cost per point is an easy way to look at which players are producing at the most team-friendly rate and which have been more of a cap space killer than a positive member of the team. Thanks to CapFriendly, that information is readily available to fans and NHL executives alike.
The benchmark for this metric is about $100K/point, as GM’s expect those big-time forwards and offensive defenseman who they award with $6MM, $7MM, and $8MM per year contracts to be putting up 60, 70, or 80 points respectively. For the second year in a row, St. Louis Blues superstar Vladimir Tarasenko was the poster boy for this standard, coming in at exactly $100K/point with 75 points on a $7.5MM deal. Winnipeg’s Bryan Little and New Jersey’s Adam Henrique are two other notable names that hit the mark exactly, while phenoms like Sidney Crosby and Duncan Keith landing close to the $100K/point mark show that it is an accurate expectation.
However, the exception to the rule is obviously entry-level contracts. It is no secret that drafting and developing well is the best way to improve you team, beginning with affordable scoring from players on their rookie deals. Nowhere is that more apparent than in cost per point, where nine of the top ten and 17 of the top 20 best contracts were rookie deals. To no one surprise, 20-year-old MVP Connor McDavid and his 100 points on a $925K entry-level contract was far and away the best bargain in hockey. McDavid cost the Oilers only $9,250 per point in 2016-17. That will all change soon, as McDavid is set to begin an eight-year, $100MM contract in 2018-19, after which a 100-point campaign will cost Edmonton $125,000/point, closer to the expectations of a standard contract. For now, the Oilers can enjoy one more year of McDavid likely being the best deal in the NHL, as well as the best player. Entry-level deals joining McDavid in the top ten last year (in order) were Viktor Arvidsson, Artemi Panarin, teammate Leon Draisaitl, Conor Sheary, David Pastrnak, Auston Matthews, Nikolaj Ehlers, and Patrik Laine. Not all entry-level deals are created equal, so while Draisaitl and Pastrnak were second and fourth respectively in entry-level scoring, they were also on the ELC maximum deal of $925K and of slightly lesser value to their teams than the likes of Arvidsson ($632K) and Sheary ($667.5K). Panarin had the best contract in the league in 2015-16 and fell only to third with $10,980/point for the Chicago Blackhawks. Now in Columbus and on a two-year, $12MM deal, the Blue Jackets have to hope that they can continue to get 70+ point seasons out of him to maximize the value of that deal.
So, entry-level contracts aside, who was the best contract in hockey last season? Another easy answer, former Blue Jacket gamble Sam Gagner. After a horrendous 2015-16 campaign with the Philadelphia Flyers, Gagner struggled to find a new team last summer, eventually settling on a $650K “show me” deal with Columbus. Right away people tagged that contract, for a six-time 40+ point scorer, as an absolute bargain, even if Gagner simply bounced back to normal production. He did one better, posting a career-high 50 points for the Jackets and coming in at $13K/point, good enough for sixth in the NHL. Gagner has since moved on to the Vancouver Canucks, signing a three-year, $9.45MM contract on July 1st. However, if he is able to continue to produce at 40-50 point levels over that deal, his $3.15MM cap hit will remain a great bargain deal. Behind Gagner, another player on the move this summer, former Florida Panther and current Vegas Golden Knight Jonathan Marchessault had the 13th-ranked cost per point last year at $14,706/point. Marchessault had a breakout year, netting 51 points in the first season of a two-year, $1.5MM deal. Rather than take advantage of one more $750K season for a 30-goal scorer, the Panthers allowed Marchessault to be selected in the Expansion Draft and Vegas surely hopes he continues to be one of the best values in hockey in 2017-18. The final contract in the top 20 not belonging to an entry-level player, and the only 35+ veteran contract in the top 50, belongs to Marchessault’s replacement in Florida, Radim Vrbata. Vrbata returned home to Arizona last season after a down year in Vancouver the season prior, and the swift 36-year old proceeded to score 55 points, more than double his previous year’s total. On a one-year deal with a $1MM base salary, that only cost the Coyotes $18,182/point last season. Now at a base salary of $2.5MM in Florida, the Panthers hope that Vrbata isn’t starting to slow down just yet. Other impressive value contracts included Patrick Eaves, whose breakout season in Dallas led to a trade and subsequent extension with the Anaheim Ducks, Derek Ryan, who shocked the hockey world with 29 points for the Carolina Hurricanes in his first full NHL season at age 30, and a quartet of recently re-signed RFAs in Richard Panik, Ryan Dzingel, Ryan Spooner, and Jordan Martinook.
With the good comes the bad, and there were certainly some poor value contracts in the NHL last year. Many of the worst belong to players who were injured or AHL depth players that saw only limited time. With zero points in 13 games with a $1.25MM cap hit, Tampa Bay Lightning winger Erik Condra‘s value was not even quantifiable it was so bad, and at the highest salary of any player who went pointless last season. Limited to just 18 games with only four points, another Bolts forward, Ryan Callahan, was one of the worst values due to injury with $1.45MM per point on his $5.8MM cap hit. However, the truly worst contract in the NHL has to belong to a player that player a majority of the season. Sadly for a Detroit fan base that is already feeling pretty down-and-out, that designation belongs to Red Wings defenseman Danny DeKeyser, who began a six-year, $30MM extension by scoring about a third less points for the third season in a row. With 12 points in 82 games at $5MM, DeKeyser’s $416.7K/point is pretty ugly. The Buffalo Sabres struck out twice on the blue line, with both Dmitry Kulikov (five points in 47 games at $4.33MM) and Josh Gorges (six points in 66 games at $3.9MM) coming in at $866.7K/point and $650K/point respectively, though neither is known as a major point producer. The worst forward contract? Andrew Desjardins may not have been relied upon as a full-time player with much ice time last season with the Chicago Blackhawks, but with only one point in 46 games, $800K/point, it’s not difficult to see why he remains an unsigned free agent.
While statistics and analytics in hockey are normally geared toward displaying on-ice production, it is always interesting to look at the game from a business perspective. It is important for teams and fans alike to understand not just the absolute of how a player is producing, but the relative value of that production based on how much money that player is being paid. In a salary cap league, there is nothing more important that production value, and as the game grows the focus will only further tighten on scoring as a function of dollars and the cost per point metric.
Is Andrei Svechnikov The Next Generational Prospect?
It’s never too far to look ahead to the draft and as the offseason enters the dog days of summer, Russian prospect Andrei Svechnikov is already projecting to be the top pick in the 2018 NHL draft. The question, before the season even begins, is if Svechnikov is a generational talent in the mold of Connor McDavid, or Auston Matthews. Taken first overall in the CHL Import Draft by the Barrie Colts, the upcoming season will reveal if Svechnikov is the high end prospect many believe he’s developing into. Svechnikov will sign with the Colts prior to training camp, and could even push the words “generational” into the conversation.
Svechnikov’s older brother Evgeny plays in the Detroit Red Wings system and though an exciting prospect Wings fans are waiting to see, Andrei looks to be even better. MLive’s Mark Opfermann penned a piece on Svechnikov back in March when the ’18 class was in the shadow of the soon-to-be-drafted ’17 class. Opfermann wrote this about him:
“For his age, and you don’t even have to look at his age, let’s just say he’s a first-year player in the league, whatever age he is,” Muskegon Lumberjacks coach John LaFontaine said. “He doesn’t get pushed off the puck, he outmuscles guys to the net, his shot is deceptive and his ability to create plays is high end no matter what level you’re playing at. There’s no question, if he was a ’99 (birth year) and on the list this year, they’d be talking about him this year.”
The Hockey News’ Daniel Nugent-Bowman wrote back in December that Svechnikov has the potential to be the “next big thing” out of Russia. The big bodied, goal scorer has excelled on both the world stage and the amateur stage, taking USHL Rookie of the Year honors with Muskegon–playing in the league primarily as a 16-year-old. It’s expected that he’ll take the OHL by storm, cementing his status as the #1 overall pick.
But does it make him generational?
If looking strictly at points, McDavid put up 120 the year he was drafted by the Oilers first overall. Matthews, while playing for ZSC had 46 points in 36 games, but that was also in a professional league. Patrik Laine and Jack Eichel have put up elite numbers in the NHL, and also showed the same flash while playing prior to the NHL.
Svechnikov tore up the USHL with 58 points in just 48 games, with 29 of those points being goals. Measuring him against McDavid in the OHL at the same age, (albeit a much different measuring stick), McDavid had 99 points in 56 games, though he did spend the 2012-13 season with the Otters as well–turning 16 during the middle of that season. McDavid also showed a high IQ on the ice from a very early age and also drew comparisons to Crosby and Gretzky as well.
Svechnikov, from scouts, to coaches, to teammates, and backed by statistics, looks like the real deal. A season with Barrie will be the best indicator of whether or not he’s generational. Barring significant injury, Svechnikov is shaping up to be a prize for the team that selects him.
Evening Snapshots: Babcock, Matthews, Bridge Deals
Toronto Maple Leafs coach Mike Babcock praised the performance of Auston Matthews, but believes there’s always room for improvement writes NHL.com’s Adam Kimelman. Matthews, who registered 40 goals and 69 points en route to a playoff appearance and Calder Award, will be expected to build on his performance last season as the Leafs look to take the next step in their rebuild. Babcock says that he isn’t one to “measure by points” but instead looks at how they “play” and “compete.” The young Leafs took a huge step forward, pushing the “painful rebuild” that Babcock once called it into a quicker ascent. But in true Babcockian form, he sprinkles praise while expecting more:
Obviously we have good young players,” Babcock said. “We have a lot of them. It’s kind of a group that’s growing up together. But it’s one year and one year doesn’t make a career. You have to do it again and again and again. We’re excited about our opportunities.
- Puck Daddy’s Ryan Lambert writes about how Ryan Johansen‘s deal certainly challenges the old guard way of thinking when it comes to bridge contracts. Rewarding Johansen with an eight-year deal instead of a one-two year contract. Lambert points out that going with the longer deal instead of a bridge and then the long deal seems like the better bet. The logic here would be getting the player through his prime instead of playing a “wait and see” game and then locking him up long after his prime has expired. There are a litany of examples of this in the NHL, but in an age of cost certainty and public outcry at what’s deemed a bad deal, general managers are often in a tight spot when it comes to choosing a bridge deal or a long-term contract.
Early Notes: Offer Sheets, Bridge Deals, Matthews
One of the most exciting and simultaneously disappointing parts of the current offseason structure is the offer sheet. While fans and media alike speculate on who will get one each year, it’s almost never done. Interestingly, now we have a former management voice also speaking up about how he’d like offer sheets to play a bigger part in the NHL summer. Frank Provenzano, a former assistant general manager with the Washington Capitals and Dallas Stars, is now a writer for The Athletic, and penned an article today looking at why teams don’t give out many offer sheets. In it he talks about how he used to try and get his team to use them:
When I was in charge of negotiating NHL contracts, I pushed to find offer sheet candidates EVERY summer. And yet I never made a single one. I can tell you first hand it wasn’t because of some fear of pissing off another GM. It was because the offer sheet lever, as it’s currently constructed, simply doesn’t work.
It’s a fascinating look behind the curtain of NHL front offices, as Provenzano explains why the current compensation structure doesn’t allow offer sheets to be signed very often. The long-standing belief that teams just didn’t want to incite a run on their own restricted free agents is challenged, and from first hand knowledge. It’s definitely a worthwhile read, as is so much coming out of the Athletic these days.
- On the theme of contract structures, Puck Daddy’s Ryan Lambert examines bridge deals and their effect on eventual player salaries. Citing Ryan Johansen as the latest example, Lambert wonders why team’s aren’t more willing to “pay up” coming out of an entry-level contract instead of spending big on post-prime years. Johansen will be earning $8MM per year through his age-32 season, something that wouldn’t have happened had he signed a long-term deal in 2014 instead of a bridge deal. Interestingly, this is the approach the Oilers have taken with Connor McDavid, instead of perhaps saving some money on a shorter term deal that doesn’t buy out as many UFA years. Could it end up costing them when McDavid hits the open market at age-29?
- Adam Kimelman of NHL.com caught up with Mike Babcock at the World Junior Summer Showcase, where the Toronto Maple Leafs coach is presumably scratching his hockey itch by watching some of the best young players in the world. The conversation turned to Auston Matthews, who Babcock believes can be even better this season. After scoring 40 goals and 69 points as a rookie and almost unanimously taking home the Calder trophy, Babcock thinks the improvements to his defensive game and pace of play will allow him to have the puck even more and dominate play. Matthews turns 20 in September, and will be a big part of any return to the playoffs for the Maple Leafs in 2017-18.
- NBC has announced its nationally televised schedule for the upcoming season, which includes three games each from the aforementioned Matthews and McDavid. The first Vegas Golden Knights’ home game will also be on national television, when they face off against the Arizona Coyotes on October 10th.
Penguins’ 3rd-Line Center Options
With the loss of Nick Bonino to Nashville via free agency, the reigning champion Pittsburgh Penguins have a gaping hole down the middle. For the first time in over a decade, the center position is now one of relative weakness. It’s always a possibility that Matt Cullen decides to re-sign for one more year, but he will not be able to carry the load of a typical 3rd-line center. Cullen showed signs of slowing down toward the tail-end of the team’s playoff run, and he was only averaging 13:55 a game through the regular season. At 41 years old, he simply won’t be a viable long-term option. The Penguins likely have high hopes for Zach Aston-Reese to make a push in training camp, but he is an unknown quantity at the NHL level. GM Jim Rutherford had 5 potential trade options in the works prior to July 1st, according to the very reliable Josh Yohe of DKPittsburghSports. Talks either fizzled or were put on the back-burner, but one might imagine the number of available targets is far fewer now. With Dallas’ three-year signing of Radek Faksa, there is one fewer name left for consideration. Vegas seems to be content with merely flipping defensemen from here on in, although names such as Cody Eakin and William Karlsson shouldn’t be thrown out entirely. Erik Haula is likely a pipe-dream, but he’s another possible target. Matt Duchene was linked for a time, but between the high cost and the stubbornness of Colorado GM Joe Sakic to make a move, he seems incredibly unlikely.
Who are the safest bets for an off-season move? Or will Pittsburgh enter the season with someone unproven slotting behind Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin?
Bozak has made tons of sense since his name was first mentioned. A lot has been made of his relationship with Phil Kessel. When they played on a line together in Toronto, Kessel saw some of his best career production. More than that however – the Leafs are in a bit of cap pinch as they will look to free up dollars for Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander in the next two seasons. They certainly aren’t in any hurry to drop underneath the ceiling due to LTIR intricacies, but moving out Bozak’s $4.2 MM for this next season would be a forward looking move. If he’s due a raise, it’s likely they’ll lose him for far less, as his contract expires at the end of 2017-18. The move makes sense for Pittsburgh because of the Kessel relationship, but also because he fits the mold of the Pittsburgh squad. He’s a solid skater, sees the ice well, and hustles back into his own zone. His playmaking abilities would be a wonderful fit on the cheap to aid the high-powered offense, and the player would be a positive possession asset to remove the stress from the bigger guns. Bozak does have a modified no-trade clause, but it’s hard to see Pittsburgh being included on his list of non-tradeable teams.
Staal saw a lot of success in Pittsburgh before he was traded away to Carolina at the 2012 draft. Jordan was traded to that team in particular due to his desire to player with his older brother Eric Staal. Seeing as Eric is no longer in the picture, it would make sense that Staal might be open to a Pittsburgh reunion. Staal is one of the better defensive centers in the league, and has been forced to take a more uncomfortably offensive role in Carolina. Staal’s biggest downside is that he isn’t the most agile skater, but he’s not any slower than Nick Bonino was. That said, he can play the shutdown role and be a total nuisance for top opponents. Rutherford loves the player, as he was the GM of Carolina when they initially acquired the player, for a hefty sum of Brandon Sutter, Brian Dumoulin, and a 1st-round pick (which became Derrick Pouilot). According to Yohe, Staal is apparently open to a return, and the nostalgic element of the team’s fanbase is clamoring for this to happen. Rutherford stated on a local radio segment with Ron Cook that “to his knowledge he (Staal) isn’t available”, but he’s played coy with the media in the past.
Out Of Left-Field
Rutherford has been known to throw the hockey world for a loop with some of his trades. The James Neal–Patric Hornqvist trade shocked just about everyone, and the Phil Kessel trade is still being discussed to this day. If there’s one thing we should expect from him, it’s the unexpected. There are a few lesser options out there for Rutherford to explore, and management may want to have the Conor Sheary and Brian Dumoulin contracts put to paper before making any sort of transaction. It seems unlikely that anything will happen until those deals get done. Rutherford told Jason Mackey of the Post-Gazette that there are “hundreds of names on (his list)”, and that it’s “a patient process”. Could Detroit be willing to move Andreas Athanasiou? Could Bryan Little be pried from Winnipeg for a young defenseman? It’s hard to speculate as to where exactly management have set their sights, but Rutherford is generally willing to overpay to “get his man”. There is the slight likelihood that they enter the season with that hole left unfilled, but it’s hard to imagine. Until more dominoes fall, Rutherford is likely to bide his team and search for the correct deal.
PHR Mailbag: Duchene, Kessel, Hurricanes, Bruins
We’ve been taking your off-season inquiries over the weekend in the comments and using #PHRMailbag on Twitter. Here are some questions and answers to ponder:
Conorsoxfan: Is Matt Duchene still going to be moved? What about Landeskog? Are the Avs waiting for the right offer or are they holding on to all their assets for now?
We received several questions about Matt Duchene and for good reason. The Avalanche have been speaking with teams since the Trade Deadline about moving the talented forward and Duchene himself is on record as saying that he is open to a move, but months later he is still in Colorado. It seems that GM Joe Sakic has a very specific (and lofty) return in mind and is hesitant to move Duchene without getting exactly what he wants. That return certainly includes a young, proven defenseman, which is not exactly a commodity that most teams are eager to move. The Columbus Blue Jackets and Carolina Hurricanes seem like they have the best chance of meeting Sakic’s demands, as both teams are loaded with young, NHL-ready defenseman. However, the rumor that Colorado rejected a deal for Travis Hamonic that included Duchene makes you wonder if Sakic is searching for a caliber of player that is simply unavailable. It would be best for Duchene, the Avs, and the rest of the NHL trade market if a deal would get done sooner rather than later, but don’t be surprised if Duchene is still a talking point at the next Trade Deadline.
As for Gabriel Landeskog, rumors of his deaparture have definitely been on the back burner this summer after he too was hot topic at the Trade Deadline. Although the Avalanche are coming off a historically bad season, they seem to be playing it safe with their rebuild. They have not sold off all of their veteran pieces, nor have they operated like a team that’s pushing for a playoff spot. Their only major additions this season are a backup goaltender, Jonathan Bernier, and a low risk-high reward gamble, Nail Yakupov. They got potentially the best player in the draft at #4 overall in defenseman Cale Makar, but he is at least two seasons away from seeing NHL ice time. It seems that Sakic is content with keeping his roster intact and slowly adding in younger players and moving out older pieces. That type of status quo strategy would seem to indicate that Colorado isn’t keen on losing its captain unless the return could truly change the course of the franchise. Especially if Duchene does end up traded, don’t expect Landeskog to follow. He’s likely to remain in Colorado for the time being.
@Wings16Canes13: When and will Pittsburgh trade Kessel? Or does another coach have to go first?
It always seems like there’s some controversy surrounding Phil Kessel. This question alludes to rumors coming out of Pittsburgh that the uber-talented winger and head coach Mike Sullivan don’t see eye-to-eye on many things. Moreover, it’s been said that assistant Rick Tocchet acted as go-between for the two these past two seasons, and with Tocchet likely headed to Arizona as the head coach of the Coyotes, the relationship between Kessel and Sullivan could get worse. However, the Pittsburgh Penguins are also back-to-back Stanley Cup champs, with both Kessel and Sullivan playing major roles in each title. Neither is likely to be on the move any time soon, especially not because they dislike each other. It may not be the most comfortable locker room, but the two will learn to live with each other and any struggles for the Penguins in 2017-18 will be attributed to Stanley Cup hangover, not a feuding coach and player. With that said, Kessel has a $6.8MM cap hit for five more years, which could cause cap trouble down the road for the Penguins, while the team has also shown a willingness to move on from head coaches after just a down season or two. Both Kessel and Sullivan could be gone in a few years, but it’s impossible to know which first and when, only that it’s highly unlikely to be this year.
mikedickinson: Hurricanes are loaded on defense and have three kids who can play in the AHL as well. They aren’t trading any of their top 4. Can they trade from their strength to address a weakness (center)? Also, JVR to Raleigh to play with his brother?
The Carolina Hurricanes boast one of the youngest, deepest, and most talented defensive corps in the entire league. All-Star Justin Faulk leads a group that includes 2015 #5 pick Noah Hanifin, 2012 fourth-rounder Jaccob Slavin, 2013 third-rounder Brett Pesce, 2014 #7 pick Haydn Fleury, 2014 second-rounder Roland McKeown, and now the recently-acquired Trevor van Riemsdyk, not to mention dependable depth defender Klas Dahlbeck and 2016-17 AHL surprise Jake Chelios. There’s also 2016 first-rounder Jake Bean to consider as well, though he remains in juniors. That group has one thing in common: none of them are more than 26 years old. When the Hurricanes acquired van Riemsdyk from the Vegas Golden Knights last month, many felt that the move indicated that Faulk, the team’s top right-shot defenseman, would be on the move. After all, the team has been linked to Matt Duchene as well as others as they try to bring their forward depth up to the same level as their defense. However, GM Ron Francis has stated since that he wants to keep his starters together. It also seems unlikely that he’s keen to move talented teenager Bean, leaving promising, but slowly developing players like Fleury, McKeown, and Chelios as his top trade chips from the blue line. None of those players will get a Duchene or similar-caliber player, but don’t be surprised if the ‘Canes use them to add some depth forwards this off-season or along the way next season. If Francis is posturing, then yes any of Faulk, Hanafin, Slavin, or Pesce could be used to bring in a big fish.
As for James van Riemsdyk, it is an interesting development to have his brother in Carolina, an up-and-coming team (like the Maple Leafs) that’s in need of an impact forward. JVR is entering the final year of his contract and it seems unlikely that Toronto will re-sign him, considering the expensive extensions coming down the line for Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander. The question then becomes whether or not the Leafs are interested in moving him this off-season and whether the Hurricanes are willing to pay the price for his services this year when they can sign him next summer for free. If the Leafs look to deal him, Fleury or McKeown as the centerpieces likely won’t cut it. The Leafs are on the hunt for a top-pair right-shot to pair with Morgan Rielly and Faulk certainly fits the bill, but that’s a high price to pay for an impending free agent. I think you’re on to something with JVR and TVR teaming up in Carolina, but I think it could come at a lower price toward the Trade Deadline or via free agency next off-season.
mpfallon: Will the bruins make some big offseason moves?
This depends on your definition of “big”. Despite rumors that the Bruins have been looking into acquiring a top-four left-handed defenseman and a top-six winger, GM Don Sweeney has also made it clear that he doesn’t want to acquire players that will block Boston’s talented young prospects. College star Anders Bjork, 2015 first-rounder Jake DeBrusk, Peter Cehlarik, who got a taste of the NHL last year, and possibly even Danton Heinen and Jesse Gabrielle will all compete with Frank Vatrano, Matt Beleskey, and recent signing Kenny Agostino for a top-nine spot on the left side, and Ryan Spooner could join the mix if the B’s prefer rookie Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson at third line center. The left wing battle could spill over to the right side as well, where top forward prospect Zach Senyshyn will also look to make the team. On the blue line, Rob O’Gara, Jakub Zboril, and Jeremy Lauzon will all fight for the final spot on the left side, and the recent signing of Paul Postma could indicate that the team is okay with moving Kevan Miller to the left side to free up a spot for Adam McQuaid to continue to be a starter with Postma as the seventh man.
There is more than enough depth in Boston that the Bruins may make no moves for the rest of the off-season. Odds are that they do something, but likely not anything “big”. A trade for a left-shot defenseman, possibly a Nick Holden or Jonathan Ericsson, or the signing of a stopgap winger, like Drew Stafford, Thomas Vanek, or Alex Chiasson seems possible, but anything bigger could be a long shot. So the short answer to your question is no, they won’t make “big off-season moves”. They could make a small, but significant move or two, but chances are a big trade would come closer to the Trade Deadline after they give the kids a shot first.
Leafs’ Cap Woes Not Yet Fatal
Much has been made by the Toronto media in recent months regarding the team’s future cap situation. Currently, they sit at $3.929 MM over the cap ceiling. That issue is relatively unimportant considering the players that will end up on long-term injured reserve, but the sudden pressure of being “in the red” has started to make analysts nervous about the team’s future. The man source of concern surrounds the three star youngsters, Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander, who will all need contracts before 2019-20. The 21 year-old Nylander’s RFA year is 2018-19 so his contract will be the first domino to fall.
Recently, Howard Berger penned an article proposing the necessity of moving on from one of Marner or Nylander due to impending budget restraints, and he ultimately advocated for the movement of the latter. The Toronto Star’s Damien Cox takes a more comprehensive look at the situation, but ultimately comes down with a fatalistic view of the situation – that it can only be rectified by abandoning one of these players in their primes. The author postulates that an approximate “37 percent of Toronto’s payroll” could be sacrificed to just that trio, estimating that the cap will rise only moderately (likely true).
There’s a very solid possibility that Toronto is overvaluing their own players’ worth a tad. There is also the incredible probability that one of the three may have a setback year, at least points-wise, which will bring a contract back down into reasonable territory. Matthews may not even make $10 MM on his first deal, and Marner and Nylander look to be only slightly more valuable collectively contract wise than say, Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat. Will the contracts be expensive? Absolutely. But will the three earn $30 MM combined? Not likely.
Ultimately, Toronto has difficult decisions ahead. Cox was correct in his assessment that Toronto is “going for it” now – the Patrick Marleau and depth player signings confirm that the team wants to compete in the short-term. But the long-term prospects probably don’t include sacrificing any of these players. With a combined cap devotion of slightly above 30%, the situation is entirely manageable. The go-to example for star-power, of course, should be the Pittsburgh Penguins who have successfully shuffled accessory pieces out as they begin to become overpaid. Their big three – Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang account for $25.45 MM of the team’s salary, a solid 34.8% of the allowable cap last season. Toronto fans shouldn’t start hitting the panic button, and internally the course ahead financially is likely already plotted. The team will need to find players on cheap contracts and hunt for bargains, while moving out older expensive pieces as the core group matures. Adding Marleau for a third season also wasn’t particularly helpful as 2019-20 will be the tightest fit. That said, Marner and Nylander shouldn’t start packing their bags just yet.
Leafs Re-Sign Zach Hyman
The Toronto Maple Leafs have signed forward Zach Hyman to a four-year contract extension, thereby avoiding arbitration. The cap value is $2.25 AAV, but breaks down in real dollars as $2 MM annually for the next two seasons, and $2.5 MM annually for the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons. Hyman applied for arbitration today, but the parties were able to come to a deal without needed to fully exercise that option.
Hyman is an intriguing piece of Toronto’s impressive young roster. This deal could be a real bargain for Toronto as they try to squeeze other youngsters’ new contracts under the cap in coming off-seasons. Hyman looks to be a consistent 40 point player and for the other assets he brings, this is more than fair value. The 25-year-old is a bit of a late bloomer, just playing his first full NHL season this year, racking up 10 goals and 18 assists through 82 games. Under Mike Babcock, the nuts-and-bolts forward has really developed his overall game. He’s a sparkplug on the ice and is agile on his feet. He also plays bigger than his 6’0 frame, getting in on the forecheck and generally being an annoyance to opposing defensemen.
Hyman has also showed chemistry with standout rookie and probable franchise player Auston Matthews, playing a good portion of the season on his left wing. Hyman tends to do the dirty work in front of the net and in the corners while Matthews finds soft spots in coverage. He is versatile, however, and can slot up and down the lineup as needed. He can play both wings with relative proficiency, as well as center in a pinch. As a third wheel for any of the high-flying offensive threats the team has, he’s a wonderfully useful player. Toronto is likely most happy about the ability to buy out some of his unrestricted years while Hyman is likely grateful for the security. There’s not much to complain about for fans of the team, as Toronto was able to avoid the single or two year deal that would have resulted from the arbitration process.
Of note, this deal currently puts the Toronto Maple Leafs at $3.93 MM over the cap ceiling. Teams are allowed to exceed the cap ceiling in the off-season by 10 percent in the off-season, but must be compliant by the start of the year. The team still also is expected to re-sign RFA Connor Brown, but they will have both Joffrey Lupul and Nathan Horton headed to LTIR once the season begins.