Snapshots: Three Stars, Marner, Hill
The NHL released its “Three Stars of the Week” today, and after Alex Ovechkin was #1 a week ago, Nikolaj Ehlers takes home the title this time around. Ehlers scored five goals and two assists in just three games, including sending Jets fans home happy with two game-winners. The 21-year old Dane is looking even better than last year when he broke out with 64 points, and more than deserved of the seven-year, $42MM extension he signed earlier this month.
Auston Matthews and Nicklas Backstrom rounded out the three stars, after impressive performances of their own. Backstrom is currently tied for the NHL lead in points with 11, including six on the powerplay already. With Ovechkin looking determined to get back to the 50-goal club this year, Backstrom will certainly continue to rack up points. Speaking of offense, Matthews’ four-goal week included a few highlight reel tallies as the 20-year old Maple Leafs forward continues to show off his incredible skill set. The Maple Leafs wouldn’t be sitting at 4-1 without his two overtime winners.
- Speaking of the 4-1 Maple Leafs, head coach Mike Babcock tinkered with the lines today in practice. According to Chris Johnston of Sportsnet, Babcock had Mitch Marner practicing on the fourth line with Matt Martin and Dominic Moore. Connor Brown was the recipient of a promotion, moving up into Marner’s spot alongside Tyler Bozak. Though Maple Leafs’ Twitter immediately went into panic mode, but Babcock gave a quick explanation to reporters including Kristen Shilton of TSN: “Let’s not read too much into this. Their line wasn’t going. Tie goes to the veteran.” That veteran would be James van Riemsdyk on the other wing, who continues to struggle in the defensive zone despite his six points in five games.
- The Arizona Coyotes have sent Marek Langhamer to the AHL and recalled Adin Hill. The goalie swap comes after a 22-save shutout by Hill for the Tucson Roadrunners on Saturday night, and could be a move just to get both goalies some work. Langhamer hadn’t suited up for a game yet in the NHL, and the team likely wants him to stay fresh during the season. We saw a similar situation last year in Columbus after the Blue Jackets waived Curtis McElhinney. Anton Forsberg and Joonas Korpisalo flip-flopped constantly between the two leagues thanks to their waiver-exempt statuses, something the Coyotes could do as well. While Antti Raanta continues to nurse a lower-body injury, Louis Domingue looks to get the lion’s share of the work for the Coyotes.
Eichel Sets The Market For Matthews And Laine
While the eight-year, $80MM contract extension that the Sabres handed center Jack Eichel earlier this week ensures that Buffalo has their franchise player under contract for almost the next decade, it also goes a long way towards setting the market for 2016 top picks Auston Matthews (Toronto) and Patrik Laine (Winnipeg) this time one year from now.
Both Matthews and Laine surpassed Eichel’s rookie season output and at least are expected to do the same with their second-year production so it’s fair to say that both players should check in past that $10MM mark while Connor McDavid’s eight-year, $100MM extension with Edmonton from the summer will represent the high end.
Despite that, there’s a case to be made that Buffalo did the Leafs and Jets at least small favor by locking Eichel up now. With a more defined salary range to work with, it should be easier for GMs Lou Lamoriello and Kevin Cheveldayoff to plan around who they can keep and who may become a cost casualty. Both teams will have some tough calls to make.
For Toronto, they also have Mitch Marner eligible for an extension starting next summer while William Nylander’s entry-level contract will be up (with no in-season extension in the plans). That trio could cost somewhere around $25MM per year and Lamoriello will undoubtedly want to keep all three in the fold. Looking ahead to 2019-20 when the second contracts will kick in for Marner and Matthews, they’ll have over $55MM committed to just 11 players (which doesn’t include the injured Nathan Horton or any money allocated for pending UFAs Tyler Bozak, James van Riemsdyk, and Leo Komarov). Needless to say, that’s going to be a tight squeeze.
It isn’t much different in Winnipeg either, especially with the recent long-term extensions handed out to Bryan Little (six years) and Nikolaj Ehlers (seven years). They already have more than $33MM tied up in six players for 2019-20 when Laine’s next deal will begin plus they still have to re-sign Jacob Trouba this summer and either re-sign or replace key pieces in winger Blake Wheeler and defenseman Tyler Myers a year later. Put those four players (or replacements) under contract and they’ll be past the $60MM mark with still more than half a team to sign.
The 2019 offseason is still a long way away so there is plenty of time for Lamoriello and Cheveldayoff to determine how they’re going to fit in the big ticket deals for Matthews and Laine on their payroll. But at least now with the Eichel contract, they have a better idea of just how much it’s going to cost to keep them around for the long haul which gives them more time to plan out any corresponding moves.
William Nylander Extension Not Expected During Season
As Nikolaj Ehlers and Jack Eichel sign their respective long-term extensions, many fans in Toronto looked at the contracts as parallels for their own young stars. While Eichel compares favorably to Auston Matthews, Ehlers is almost a direct comparison for William Nylander. The pair were selected back to back in the 2014 draft, and have similarities in both style and production.
The Jets inked Ehlers to a seven-year extension today worth $42MM, but the Toronto forward won’t be negotiating during the season according to Chris Johnston of Sportsnet. Like many other athletes, he instead wants to focus on his team’s success and his own game rather than where his future contract status lies.
In reality, it’s probably a good move for the Nylander camp. Entering the final year of his entry-level contract, Nylander is poised to spend the entire season riding shotgun with Matthews and racking up points. The two combined for 130 last season and could easily surpass those totals, especially given the innate chemistry they’ve shown once again in the preseason. If Nylander sets a new mark for points this season he could easily demand more than Ehlers’ $6MM per season. If not, he likely won’t be asking for much less.
It’s easy to bet on yourself when you’re as talented as Nylander, but the Maple Leafs likely want to know where Matthews’ salary falls before getting into any real negotiations anyway. As the Edmonton Oilers are finding out, when you have several superstars ready to get paid it is a tough job to fit them all into a salary structure and leave yourself any room. The Maple Leafs also have Mitch Marner to worry about, and eventually will have to decide if Jake Gardiner is worth a long-term extension. Waiting on Nylander may just be out of necessity.
Evening Snapshots: Hischier, Hitchcock, Leafs’ Captaincy
The New Jersey Devils’ top pick in the 2017 Entry Draft told NHL.com’s Mike Morreale that it would be a “disappointment” if he didn’t make the Devils’ roster following training camp. General manager Ray Shero called him a “special talent,” and that if there’s a spot, it’s his to win. Teammate Taylor Hall reminisced about his first season with the Oilers, when the 2010 #1 overall pick learned a lot from then captain Shawn Horcoff. He added how important it was for younger players to have a veteran presence to “bounce things off of,” when beginning a career after being a first overall pick. Hischier is certainly saying all the right things–it’s just a matter of time if the youngster get a shot as a regular.
- It’s the return of Ken Hitchcock in Dallas, and it’ll be the “new adventures of old Ken Hitchcock,” writes the Dallas Morning-News’ Mike Heika. The veteran coach and Dallas’ all-time winningest coach has promised a camp that “no one has ever seen before.” Heika adds that Hitchcock has to rein in an offensively “supercharged” team that failed to defend in its own zone. Unlike his 90’s teams or even more recently in St. Louis, “Hitch” plans to attack in the offensive zone while being responsible with the puck in their own zone. Center Tyler Seguin believes the team has more than enough offense to score goals and that it’s just a matter of being better defensively. Should the Stars stay healthy, they could certainly be a favorite in the West.
- The Toronto Maple Leafs will once again go without a captain, and opt for three alternates reports the Toronto Star’s Kevin McGran. General manager Lou Lamoriello sees no reason to name a captain, citing a number of leaders in the room with no rush to name one player as the captain. McGran speculates that the C will eventually be sewn onto Auston Matthews‘ jersey, but believes that keeping any additional pressure off of the second year forward may be the team’s motive for not bestowing that honor yet.
Eastern Notes: Toronto’s Defense, Prospects, Butcher
The Toronto Maple Leafs have received plenty of attention this offseason with their moves, including the surprising signing of San Jose veteran Patrick Marleau to a three-year deal. Add Marleau to the young cast of offensive weapons the team already has like Auston Matthews, Nazem Kadri, James van Riemsdyk, William Nylander and Mitch Marner, the team has hopes of making a run towards a Stanley Cup Finals this season.
However, Steve Simmons of the Toronto Sun is quick to point out that the Maple Leafs need to emphasize defense too. He writes that many people have forgotten that the team finished 22nd in goals against last year. Every team that finished behind them didn’t make the playoffs. And when you look at the moves the team made, very little of it was to help the defense. The team did sign 36-year-old Ron Hainsey, but how much will that help? He’s 36 years old.
Simmons writes that Toronto leadership knows the importance of defense. Coach Mike Babcock, who has won a Stanley Cup in 2008 with the Detroit Red Wings, had a team that was first in goals against that year. General Manager Lou Lamoriello won his last Stanley Cup with the New Jersey Devils in 2003, they were also first in goals against.
However, the team’s defense should be stronger. The team boasts a number of young, developing defensemen like Nikita Zaitsev, who is just 25 years old. Morgan Rielly is only 23 years old. Jake Gardiner is 27. Martin Marincin is 25 as well, while Connor Carrick is 23. That’s a young defense and maybe a major reason why the team brought Hainsey in. However, even with a year of development, how much better can this defense be?
- With rookie camps just a week away for many teams, Fanrag’s Craig Morgan put together a detailed list of rookies who could make an impact on the team. While it has the usual candidates like Nico Hischier, Nolan Patrick and Clayton Keller, there are quite a few lesser known ones as well. Players like Washington’s Jakub Vrana, New York Islanders’ Ryan Pulock and Columbus’ Pierre-Luc Dubois are players rarely mentioned who could make an impact this year.
- Sports Illustrated featured New Jersey Devils Will Butcher after he chose the Devils last weekend. Butcher claims he sees similarities in his game to three NHL players including Chicago’s Duncan Keith, Boston’s Torey Krug and New Jersey’s Andy Greene. ”If I was fortunate to make the big team, he would be a great mentor to me, just because he does everything,” Butcher said of Greene. ”He penalty kills, power play, all situations. He is a smart player, not necessarily the biggest guy, but he uses his abilities to defend well and play the game of hockey.”
Tavares To Toronto Highly Unlikely
Although it seems to occur every time a high-profile free-agent could hit the market, Toronto media have once again conjured a dream of landing a superstar. John Tavares is experiencing major difficulty in coming to terms with the New York Islanders, primarily because of the uncertainty of their arena situation. The team needs to prove that they are both competitive and can secure a home for the foreseeable future. Enter Toronto, who believes that the contract negotiation difficulty automatically propels them into a top-3 competitor for Tavares’ services. If this story may sound familiar, that’s because it occurred just last off-season when Steven Stamkos was stalling his new deal with Tampa Bay.
Toronto inarguably is in a far superior negotiating position than they were in 2016. They’ve made the playoffs and took the Washington Capitals to their limits, and flaunt a young core who established itself as dominant quite before most believed possible. Given another season of success, the Leafs could be serious contenders for any UFA on the market. That said, a Tavares signing would be absurdly difficult and ultimately impractical for a multitude of reasons. The Leafs’ fanbase is already (rightfully) fretting over the difficulty of keeping Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews, and William Nylander together while staying under the cap ceiling. Each player will command hefty money on long-term deals, and the best case scenario (cap-wise) is that one of the three might have a “down” statistical year.
Even ignoring those future contracts, Toronto already made matters more complicated by signing Patrick Marleau to a 3-year contract worth $6.25 MM AAV. Assuming that the team keeps one or two of James van Riemsdyk, Leo Komarov, and Tyler Bozak (all UFAs in 2018), they will have precious room to devote to Tavares beyond 2018-19. After that point, Matthews and Marner will both be on new deals with heavy cap hits. Craig Button of TSN suggests that the Leafs could offer Tavares a one-year deal, but there is little to no security in such an arrangement. If the Islanders are unable to move Tavares or simply fall short of securing a new contract, Tavares will be likely seek a long-term arrangement. His primary stated concern at present is security, and a one-year contract elsewhere certainly doesn’t achieve said goal.
By signing Marleau, the writing for Toronto fans should have been clear and visible. Still, the Tavares hope persists. It’s not impossible that Tavares could sign a long-term contract in Toronto, but it would take a major roster overhaul to achieve. One of Marner or Nylander would necessarily need to depart, and the amount of money spent on the offense would only increase further. It seems likely that GM Lou Lamoriello will simply build upon the core that has been so successful without gutting the progress made. It would be unrealistic to expect Lamoriello to not at least inquire about Tavares if he indeed hits unrestricted free agency, but it would require a major organizational commitment without any real certainty in the matter. Tavares will receive a long-term contract, whether it is from New York or another franchise, but as of now the Leafs are not in a position to extend such an offer.
Morning Notes: Matthews, Boqvist, Vancouver
While the Edmonton Oilers lock up Connor McDavid and the Buffalo Sabres prepare an extension for Jack Eichel, the Toronto Maple Leafs have their own young phenom to start worrying about. Auston Matthews will be eligible for an extension on July 1st 2018, and James Mirtle of The Athletic was on TSN Radio this morning to discuss the general parameters.
Mirtle disagreed with the idea that players are upset at McDavid for taking less than the maximum, but did admit that it will set a sort of ceiling on any contract coming out of an entry-level deal. He suspects Matthews will earn around $11MM per season on his eventual deal. While the Maple Leafs are currently playing games with long-term injured reserve just to stay under the cap, they’ll have plenty of room by 2019 when Matthews (and Mitch Marner) are due for huge raises. The team has just six active skaters signed for that year, and could easily have some prospects still working through their ELC to help balance the check book.
- Grant McCagg of Recrutes.ca released his latest “Grant’s Slant” piece today, discussing the emerging draft stock of Adam Boqvist and how he could challenge Rasmus Dahlin as the top option out of Sweden next year. Boqvist played extremely well at the Ivan Hlinka tournament and McCagg points at recent examples—Oliver Kylington and Timothy Liljegren in particular—of Swedish defenders falling rapidly in their draft year. It doesn’t look like Dahlin will give up his spot at the top of most draft boards next spring, but it would be silly to sleep on Boqvist who will be a top prospect in his own right.
- Rick Dhaliwal of News 1130 in Vancouver has been all over the Alex Kerfoot situation, and now reports that the NCAA free agent will visit the Canucks today. That will be his first visit, but it won’t be his only one as “several teams” have been in contact with his camp. The former Harvard captain did not sign with the New Jersey Devils before the deadline, and has been linked to his hometown Canucks for some time. The undersized forward has a nice skill set but like many other college free agents could have limited upside in the long-term.
NHL Snapshots: Toews, Red Wings Logo, Klingberg
Chicago Blackhawks star forward Jonathan Toews spent all of last offseason training harder than he ever had and while the 29-year-old had a solid season, his numbers dropped, particularly his goal-scoring as his 21 goals last year were the lowest number of his career. According to Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston, Toews admitted that over-training might have been a mistake and is looking to make changes to his offseason work habits.
“Last summer is the first time I really got the time to train really hard and I might have overdone it in the wrong way. Just worrying about power and strength all the time,” Toews said. “I came into the season and just couldn’t move, just felt slow. I mean the game is so fast nowadays. It’s kind of a wake-up call in that sense.”
Toews said that he has been focusing on loosening up his body and improving his mobility. He adds that he is taking ideas from some of the young stars like Toronto’s Auston Matthews and Edmonton’s Connor McDavid and intends to devote time to skating and working on his offensive game.
- The Detroit Red Wings and the NHL are considering legal action after white nationalists used an altered form of the Red Wings logo during the “Unite the Right” rally in Charlottesville, Va. this weekend. The Red Wings tweeted that they vehemently disagree and are not associated with the event and will explore any legal action possible.
- Sportsnet’s Sonny Sachdeva writes that Dallas Stars defenseman John Klingberg says that he is looking forward to working with new coach Ken Hitchcock this year in hopes that the veteran coach can emphasize defense more in hopes of bringing the Stars back to the playoffs. The 24-year-old blueliner has been one of the team’s brightest offensive stars, putting up a career-high 13 goals last year to go with 36 assists for 49 points. Klingberg who led the team in average ice-time (23:21) last season would embrace a coach that emphasized defense. The Stars went from winning the Central Division in 2015-16 to a sixth-place finish last year.
U.S. National Development Program Announces 2017-18 Schedule
It’s hard to make an argument that the American junior hockey system is superior to the Canadian junior hockey system. Sure, the USHL has been improving every year and the growth of college hockey has lead to a greater proportion of NHL draft picks coming out of the U.S. junior ranks than ever before. Still, the depth of talent and caliber of player coming out of the OHL, WHL, and QMJHL will almost always stand up to the best of the USHL or other lower tier leagues. However, the one thing Canadian juniors does not have that has been wildly successful in the United States is the presence of a National Development Program.
Located in Plymouth, Michigan the USNTDP houses both a U-18 and U-17 team, both of which travel throughout the country and sometimes even the globe to play hockey at many levels. The 2017-18 schedule, announced today, highlights the uniqueness of the national program. Unlike Canadian juniors, which can dominate the lives of the players, the teams largely travel on weekends, freeing the players up to live somewhat normal lives as high school students during the week. Additionally, rather than play against the same competition all year long, the team mixes it up quite a lot. Both squads play a majority of their games against local USHL competition and both also participate in national and international tournaments, but the U-17 team also squares off against teams from the Tier II NAHL, while the U-18 team is tested in exhibition games against NCAA programs from around the country. The U-18 team is scheduled to go up against college power houses like Harvard, Boston University, North Dakota, and Notre Dame this season.
Recruited from around the country, USNTDP players are the best of the best of junior-age Americans. The program has produced current NHLers like Auston Matthews, Jack Eichel, Patrick Kane, Phil Kessel, Seth Jones, and Zach Werenski just to name a few, with Calder candidates like Charlie McAvoy, Clayton Keller, and Alex Tuch about to make the jump as well. The prospect machine doesn’t show any signs of slowing down, so don’t miss the opportunity to catch the team in action if any of their games are with reachable distance. Current U-18 members include 2018 projected top picks like Joel Farabee, Bode Wilde, Oliver Wahlstrom and Jake Wise, who you’ll know soon enough as budding NHL stars.
Cost Per Point: The Best Value Deals In The NHL
When working with a salary cap, especially one that has not been increasing as expected in recent year, it is vital for general managers to get the most production out of their players. Teams with players who meet the expected level of production implied by their contracts and teams that lack wasted dollars in bad, expensive deals are often the same teams that thrive in today’s NHL. Forget market size or free agent appeal, the key to a winning franchise nowadays is getting the best bang for your buck on every player on the roster. While no player can be fully quantified by their scoring, cost per point is an easy way to look at which players are producing at the most team-friendly rate and which have been more of a cap space killer than a positive member of the team. Thanks to CapFriendly, that information is readily available to fans and NHL executives alike.
The benchmark for this metric is about $100K/point, as GM’s expect those big-time forwards and offensive defenseman who they award with $6MM, $7MM, and $8MM per year contracts to be putting up 60, 70, or 80 points respectively. For the second year in a row, St. Louis Blues superstar Vladimir Tarasenko was the poster boy for this standard, coming in at exactly $100K/point with 75 points on a $7.5MM deal. Winnipeg’s Bryan Little and New Jersey’s Adam Henrique are two other notable names that hit the mark exactly, while phenoms like Sidney Crosby and Duncan Keith landing close to the $100K/point mark show that it is an accurate expectation.
However, the exception to the rule is obviously entry-level contracts. It is no secret that drafting and developing well is the best way to improve you team, beginning with affordable scoring from players on their rookie deals. Nowhere is that more apparent than in cost per point, where nine of the top ten and 17 of the top 20 best contracts were rookie deals. To no one surprise, 20-year-old MVP Connor McDavid and his 100 points on a $925K entry-level contract was far and away the best bargain in hockey. McDavid cost the Oilers only $9,250 per point in 2016-17. That will all change soon, as McDavid is set to begin an eight-year, $100MM contract in 2018-19, after which a 100-point campaign will cost Edmonton $125,000/point, closer to the expectations of a standard contract. For now, the Oilers can enjoy one more year of McDavid likely being the best deal in the NHL, as well as the best player. Entry-level deals joining McDavid in the top ten last year (in order) were Viktor Arvidsson, Artemi Panarin, teammate Leon Draisaitl, Conor Sheary, David Pastrnak, Auston Matthews, Nikolaj Ehlers, and Patrik Laine. Not all entry-level deals are created equal, so while Draisaitl and Pastrnak were second and fourth respectively in entry-level scoring, they were also on the ELC maximum deal of $925K and of slightly lesser value to their teams than the likes of Arvidsson ($632K) and Sheary ($667.5K). Panarin had the best contract in the league in 2015-16 and fell only to third with $10,980/point for the Chicago Blackhawks. Now in Columbus and on a two-year, $12MM deal, the Blue Jackets have to hope that they can continue to get 70+ point seasons out of him to maximize the value of that deal.
So, entry-level contracts aside, who was the best contract in hockey last season? Another easy answer, former Blue Jacket gamble Sam Gagner. After a horrendous 2015-16 campaign with the Philadelphia Flyers, Gagner struggled to find a new team last summer, eventually settling on a $650K “show me” deal with Columbus. Right away people tagged that contract, for a six-time 40+ point scorer, as an absolute bargain, even if Gagner simply bounced back to normal production. He did one better, posting a career-high 50 points for the Jackets and coming in at $13K/point, good enough for sixth in the NHL. Gagner has since moved on to the Vancouver Canucks, signing a three-year, $9.45MM contract on July 1st. However, if he is able to continue to produce at 40-50 point levels over that deal, his $3.15MM cap hit will remain a great bargain deal. Behind Gagner, another player on the move this summer, former Florida Panther and current Vegas Golden Knight Jonathan Marchessault had the 13th-ranked cost per point last year at $14,706/point. Marchessault had a breakout year, netting 51 points in the first season of a two-year, $1.5MM deal. Rather than take advantage of one more $750K season for a 30-goal scorer, the Panthers allowed Marchessault to be selected in the Expansion Draft and Vegas surely hopes he continues to be one of the best values in hockey in 2017-18. The final contract in the top 20 not belonging to an entry-level player, and the only 35+ veteran contract in the top 50, belongs to Marchessault’s replacement in Florida, Radim Vrbata. Vrbata returned home to Arizona last season after a down year in Vancouver the season prior, and the swift 36-year old proceeded to score 55 points, more than double his previous year’s total. On a one-year deal with a $1MM base salary, that only cost the Coyotes $18,182/point last season. Now at a base salary of $2.5MM in Florida, the Panthers hope that Vrbata isn’t starting to slow down just yet. Other impressive value contracts included Patrick Eaves, whose breakout season in Dallas led to a trade and subsequent extension with the Anaheim Ducks, Derek Ryan, who shocked the hockey world with 29 points for the Carolina Hurricanes in his first full NHL season at age 30, and a quartet of recently re-signed RFAs in Richard Panik, Ryan Dzingel, Ryan Spooner, and Jordan Martinook.
With the good comes the bad, and there were certainly some poor value contracts in the NHL last year. Many of the worst belong to players who were injured or AHL depth players that saw only limited time. With zero points in 13 games with a $1.25MM cap hit, Tampa Bay Lightning winger Erik Condra‘s value was not even quantifiable it was so bad, and at the highest salary of any player who went pointless last season. Limited to just 18 games with only four points, another Bolts forward, Ryan Callahan, was one of the worst values due to injury with $1.45MM per point on his $5.8MM cap hit. However, the truly worst contract in the NHL has to belong to a player that player a majority of the season. Sadly for a Detroit fan base that is already feeling pretty down-and-out, that designation belongs to Red Wings defenseman Danny DeKeyser, who began a six-year, $30MM extension by scoring about a third less points for the third season in a row. With 12 points in 82 games at $5MM, DeKeyser’s $416.7K/point is pretty ugly. The Buffalo Sabres struck out twice on the blue line, with both Dmitry Kulikov (five points in 47 games at $4.33MM) and Josh Gorges (six points in 66 games at $3.9MM) coming in at $866.7K/point and $650K/point respectively, though neither is known as a major point producer. The worst forward contract? Andrew Desjardins may not have been relied upon as a full-time player with much ice time last season with the Chicago Blackhawks, but with only one point in 46 games, $800K/point, it’s not difficult to see why he remains an unsigned free agent.
While statistics and analytics in hockey are normally geared toward displaying on-ice production, it is always interesting to look at the game from a business perspective. It is important for teams and fans alike to understand not just the absolute of how a player is producing, but the relative value of that production based on how much money that player is being paid. In a salary cap league, there is nothing more important that production value, and as the game grows the focus will only further tighten on scoring as a function of dollars and the cost per point metric.