Morning Notes: Matthews, Waivers, Kulemin
Auston Matthews will miss the first game of his career tonight when the Toronto Maple Leafs take on the Minnesota Wild. Matthews was a game-time decision on Monday night against the Vegas Golden Knights, but ended up playing (and playing well). Today, coach Mike Babcock confirmed that his upper-body injury will keep him out of the match, which sparked an interesting take from former TSN radio host Matt Cauz.
Glad Leafs are resting Auston Matthews. If stars rest the odd game in the less physical NBA than why not in the NHL? Rather have a fresh Matthews in back-to-back vs. Boston.
While Matthews’ injury has been described as “soreness” by Babcock and the team doesn’t seem too concerned about it, it does raise the question about playing through injury or resting to remain healthy all year. Goaltenders are already treated this way due to the demand on their bodies, and perhaps teams should consider it more for their star players. The Maple Leafs though aren’t in the same situation as some basketball teams who decide to give their stars a night off. In the NHL, playoff spots are far from guaranteed throughout the year and any team can surprise on a given night. It’s unlikely that Matthews is sitting just to be fresh for the weekend series against Boston.
- Erik Condra and Brian Ferlin have cleared waivers and will be assigned to their respective AHL teams. Both players started the year injured, and had to clear to be sent to their minor league affiliates. Condra is headed to the Syracuse Crunch where will be welcomed back with open arms as he continues his role of team captain, while Ferlin will be assigned to the Bakersfield Condors to try and get his professional career back on track. The 25-year old Ferlin has been limited by injuries since leaving Cornell University for the pros, playing in just 28 games (playoffs included) over the past two seasons.
- Nikolai Kulemin has been placed on injured reserve by the New York Islanders, giving them one additional roster spot to call up a forward. Alan Quine came back from his minor league conditioning stint, but many expect Joshua Ho-Sang to get another chance with the big club. Ho-Sang has five points in five games since being sent down, and is a key part of the Islanders’ future up front. New York plays the Dallas Stars on Friday night.
Snapshots: Three Stars, Calvert, Matthews
The NHL has named its three stars for the previous week, with goaltender Corey Crawford taking top honors. Crawford earned two shutouts for the Chicago Blackhawks last week, and recorded a .919 save percentage. Unfortunately, Chicago is still just 7-6-2 on the season after dropping last night’s game against Montreal 2-0. They’ll need more solid performances from Crawford going forward if they’re to really climb towards the top of the standings.
Josh Bailey and Martin Jones took home second and third respectively, after impressive weeks of their own. Bailey had an incredible seven assists last week and now has 15 on the season, and Jones led the Sharks to three straight wins. Both the Sharks and Islanders have climbed out of early holes to establish themselves as relevant playoff possibilities once again.
- Matt Calvert will be out three to four weeks with an upper-body injury according to the Columbus Blue Jackets’ GM Jarmo Kekalainen. Calvert was injured in Saturday’s loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning and has been placed on injured reserve. Losing Calvert will test the Blue Jackets’ forward depth even more, as they’re already without Lukas Sedlak and Cam Atkinson for the time being. The team has not made a corresponding move yet, and will take on the New York Rangers tonight.
- Auston Matthews is a game-time decision for the Toronto Maple Leafs tonight as he deals with “soreness” according to head coach Mike Babcock. If Matthews does miss the game, it would be the first time in his career he failed to suit up. In 97 career regular season games, Matthews now has 50 goals and is showing he could be even more dominant than anyone expected when he was selected first overall. The Maple Leafs can’t afford to lose him for very long though, as their slide continued with a 6-4 loss at the hands of the St. Louis Blues on Saturday night.
- Unfortunately for the fans in Stockholm, Carl Soderberg may not be in the lineup when the Colorado Avalanche and Ottawa Senators play NHL regular season games in Sweden later this week. The Swedish-born forward did not travel with the team, instead staying at home in Denver with his pregnant wife. Since the couple is expecting the baby on Tuesday, he hasn’t yet been ruled out for the back-to-back games.
Performance Bonuses Still A Consideration For Maple Leafs
The Toronto Maple Leafs are one of the teams in the league who are almost always right up against the salary cap ceiling. With their tremendous financial backing from corporate ownership, and a rabid fan base that is hard to scare away with even the most futile rosters, they use their situation to get every advantage possible. With that in mind, they’ve previously completed moves that a less wealthy team would just not be able to—moving David Clarkson (who was healthy but ineffective at the time) for the injured Nathan Horton for instance.
Last year brought the next wave of Maple Leafs stars, with rookies like Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, Connor Brown and Nikita Zaitsev all finding great success as freshmen. While all of them were on inexpensive entry-level contracts, their excellent play earned them all hefty performance bonuses. Leading the way was Matthews, who earned $2.85MM thanks to his 40-goal performance. Chris Johnston of Sportsnet broke down the bonuses for the Maple Leafs, which totaled a whopping $5.37MM on the year, the second most of all-time.
Because the Maple Leafs were using long-term injured reserve (from the aforementioned Horton along with a few others) last season and were above the salary cap ceiling, that entire bonus pool of $5.37MM was applied to this year’s salary cap as an overage. That hurts their ability to manipulate the cap, but not nearly as much as it could in the future.
The Maple Leafs are still in relative safety when it comes to the cap, with their stars still vastly underpaid and a pair of long-term injuries to use as a cushion of sorts. They were able to use some of that room to bring in Patrick Marleau and Ron Hainsey to augment the roster, while seeing almost their entire core return from last year. The problem arises when these entry-level contracts start to expire.
Much has been written over the past year on the Maple Leafs impending contract negotiations with Matthews, Nylander and Marner, but little of it has concerned the impact bonuses could still have. With the team again over the cap and using LTIR, any bonuses earned will again be carried over. With the roster they’re currently carrying, there is the possibility for up to $6.25MM in bonuses, though it doesn’t look early like they’ll have to pay the maximum.
Matthews, with his explosive start looks like a good bet to max out at $2.85MM, though he’d have to finish in the top-10 in goals once again. He’s currently tied for fourth, though obviously it is still early. Nylander and Marner each could earn up to $850K again.
The two wildcards are Swedish defenders Andreas Borgman and Calle Rosen. The pair have rotated in and out of the lineup early on, and are generally limited to the bottom pairing. If that changes because of injury, or they show improved ability and force head coach Mike Babcock into giving them more minutes they too could each earn up to $850K.
While performance bonuses are never exactly a bad thing—they do after all reward success—the Maple Leafs don’t want to have to deal with overages as they head into the next contracts for their big three. Though right now they project to have over $26MM in cap space for next season, that’s not including Nylander’s new deal or possible new contracts for James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak or Leo Komarov. Hacking 20% off that amount with another $5MM bonus penalty will certainly hurt their ability to re-sign the pending unrestricted free agents, and push them even closer to the 2018-19 cap ceiling where they really need to be careful.
Obviously, the Maple Leafs are quite a distance away from being locked into any cap situation. But they have to be considering how to manage the cap for the 2019-20 season when the rest of the big three (Matthews and Marner) move onto their next contracts. That’s not even considering a Jake Gardiner extension, as he’s headed for UFA status in the summer of 2019 as well. When the Maple Leafs are spending next offseason, don’t be surprised if they leave themselves a little bit of extra room to avoid an overage. If not, they could be putting themselves in a very tricky situation.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Snapshots: Three Stars, Marner, Hill
The NHL released its “Three Stars of the Week” today, and after Alex Ovechkin was #1 a week ago, Nikolaj Ehlers takes home the title this time around. Ehlers scored five goals and two assists in just three games, including sending Jets fans home happy with two game-winners. The 21-year old Dane is looking even better than last year when he broke out with 64 points, and more than deserved of the seven-year, $42MM extension he signed earlier this month.
Auston Matthews and Nicklas Backstrom rounded out the three stars, after impressive performances of their own. Backstrom is currently tied for the NHL lead in points with 11, including six on the powerplay already. With Ovechkin looking determined to get back to the 50-goal club this year, Backstrom will certainly continue to rack up points. Speaking of offense, Matthews’ four-goal week included a few highlight reel tallies as the 20-year old Maple Leafs forward continues to show off his incredible skill set. The Maple Leafs wouldn’t be sitting at 4-1 without his two overtime winners.
- Speaking of the 4-1 Maple Leafs, head coach Mike Babcock tinkered with the lines today in practice. According to Chris Johnston of Sportsnet, Babcock had Mitch Marner practicing on the fourth line with Matt Martin and Dominic Moore. Connor Brown was the recipient of a promotion, moving up into Marner’s spot alongside Tyler Bozak. Though Maple Leafs’ Twitter immediately went into panic mode, but Babcock gave a quick explanation to reporters including Kristen Shilton of TSN: “Let’s not read too much into this. Their line wasn’t going. Tie goes to the veteran.” That veteran would be James van Riemsdyk on the other wing, who continues to struggle in the defensive zone despite his six points in five games.
- The Arizona Coyotes have sent Marek Langhamer to the AHL and recalled Adin Hill. The goalie swap comes after a 22-save shutout by Hill for the Tucson Roadrunners on Saturday night, and could be a move just to get both goalies some work. Langhamer hadn’t suited up for a game yet in the NHL, and the team likely wants him to stay fresh during the season. We saw a similar situation last year in Columbus after the Blue Jackets waived Curtis McElhinney. Anton Forsberg and Joonas Korpisalo flip-flopped constantly between the two leagues thanks to their waiver-exempt statuses, something the Coyotes could do as well. While Antti Raanta continues to nurse a lower-body injury, Louis Domingue looks to get the lion’s share of the work for the Coyotes.
Eichel Sets The Market For Matthews And Laine
While the eight-year, $80MM contract extension that the Sabres handed center Jack Eichel earlier this week ensures that Buffalo has their franchise player under contract for almost the next decade, it also goes a long way towards setting the market for 2016 top picks Auston Matthews (Toronto) and Patrik Laine (Winnipeg) this time one year from now.
Both Matthews and Laine surpassed Eichel’s rookie season output and at least are expected to do the same with their second-year production so it’s fair to say that both players should check in past that $10MM mark while Connor McDavid’s eight-year, $100MM extension with Edmonton from the summer will represent the high end.
Despite that, there’s a case to be made that Buffalo did the Leafs and Jets at least small favor by locking Eichel up now. With a more defined salary range to work with, it should be easier for GMs Lou Lamoriello and Kevin Cheveldayoff to plan around who they can keep and who may become a cost casualty. Both teams will have some tough calls to make.
For Toronto, they also have Mitch Marner eligible for an extension starting next summer while William Nylander’s entry-level contract will be up (with no in-season extension in the plans). That trio could cost somewhere around $25MM per year and Lamoriello will undoubtedly want to keep all three in the fold. Looking ahead to 2019-20 when the second contracts will kick in for Marner and Matthews, they’ll have over $55MM committed to just 11 players (which doesn’t include the injured Nathan Horton or any money allocated for pending UFAs Tyler Bozak, James van Riemsdyk, and Leo Komarov). Needless to say, that’s going to be a tight squeeze.
It isn’t much different in Winnipeg either, especially with the recent long-term extensions handed out to Bryan Little (six years) and Nikolaj Ehlers (seven years). They already have more than $33MM tied up in six players for 2019-20 when Laine’s next deal will begin plus they still have to re-sign Jacob Trouba this summer and either re-sign or replace key pieces in winger Blake Wheeler and defenseman Tyler Myers a year later. Put those four players (or replacements) under contract and they’ll be past the $60MM mark with still more than half a team to sign.
The 2019 offseason is still a long way away so there is plenty of time for Lamoriello and Cheveldayoff to determine how they’re going to fit in the big ticket deals for Matthews and Laine on their payroll. But at least now with the Eichel contract, they have a better idea of just how much it’s going to cost to keep them around for the long haul which gives them more time to plan out any corresponding moves.
William Nylander Extension Not Expected During Season
As Nikolaj Ehlers and Jack Eichel sign their respective long-term extensions, many fans in Toronto looked at the contracts as parallels for their own young stars. While Eichel compares favorably to Auston Matthews, Ehlers is almost a direct comparison for William Nylander. The pair were selected back to back in the 2014 draft, and have similarities in both style and production.
The Jets inked Ehlers to a seven-year extension today worth $42MM, but the Toronto forward won’t be negotiating during the season according to Chris Johnston of Sportsnet. Like many other athletes, he instead wants to focus on his team’s success and his own game rather than where his future contract status lies.
In reality, it’s probably a good move for the Nylander camp. Entering the final year of his entry-level contract, Nylander is poised to spend the entire season riding shotgun with Matthews and racking up points. The two combined for 130 last season and could easily surpass those totals, especially given the innate chemistry they’ve shown once again in the preseason. If Nylander sets a new mark for points this season he could easily demand more than Ehlers’ $6MM per season. If not, he likely won’t be asking for much less.
It’s easy to bet on yourself when you’re as talented as Nylander, but the Maple Leafs likely want to know where Matthews’ salary falls before getting into any real negotiations anyway. As the Edmonton Oilers are finding out, when you have several superstars ready to get paid it is a tough job to fit them all into a salary structure and leave yourself any room. The Maple Leafs also have Mitch Marner to worry about, and eventually will have to decide if Jake Gardiner is worth a long-term extension. Waiting on Nylander may just be out of necessity.
Evening Snapshots: Hischier, Hitchcock, Leafs’ Captaincy
The New Jersey Devils’ top pick in the 2017 Entry Draft told NHL.com’s Mike Morreale that it would be a “disappointment” if he didn’t make the Devils’ roster following training camp. General manager Ray Shero called him a “special talent,” and that if there’s a spot, it’s his to win. Teammate Taylor Hall reminisced about his first season with the Oilers, when the 2010 #1 overall pick learned a lot from then captain Shawn Horcoff. He added how important it was for younger players to have a veteran presence to “bounce things off of,” when beginning a career after being a first overall pick. Hischier is certainly saying all the right things–it’s just a matter of time if the youngster get a shot as a regular.
- It’s the return of Ken Hitchcock in Dallas, and it’ll be the “new adventures of old Ken Hitchcock,” writes the Dallas Morning-News’ Mike Heika. The veteran coach and Dallas’ all-time winningest coach has promised a camp that “no one has ever seen before.” Heika adds that Hitchcock has to rein in an offensively “supercharged” team that failed to defend in its own zone. Unlike his 90’s teams or even more recently in St. Louis, “Hitch” plans to attack in the offensive zone while being responsible with the puck in their own zone. Center Tyler Seguin believes the team has more than enough offense to score goals and that it’s just a matter of being better defensively. Should the Stars stay healthy, they could certainly be a favorite in the West.
- The Toronto Maple Leafs will once again go without a captain, and opt for three alternates reports the Toronto Star’s Kevin McGran. General manager Lou Lamoriello sees no reason to name a captain, citing a number of leaders in the room with no rush to name one player as the captain. McGran speculates that the C will eventually be sewn onto Auston Matthews‘ jersey, but believes that keeping any additional pressure off of the second year forward may be the team’s motive for not bestowing that honor yet.
Eastern Notes: Toronto’s Defense, Prospects, Butcher
The Toronto Maple Leafs have received plenty of attention this offseason with their moves, including the surprising signing of San Jose veteran Patrick Marleau to a three-year deal. Add Marleau to the young cast of offensive weapons the team already has like Auston Matthews, Nazem Kadri, James van Riemsdyk, William Nylander and Mitch Marner, the team has hopes of making a run towards a Stanley Cup Finals this season.
However, Steve Simmons of the Toronto Sun is quick to point out that the Maple Leafs need to emphasize defense too. He writes that many people have forgotten that the team finished 22nd in goals against last year. Every team that finished behind them didn’t make the playoffs. And when you look at the moves the team made, very little of it was to help the defense. The team did sign 36-year-old Ron Hainsey, but how much will that help? He’s 36 years old.
Simmons writes that Toronto leadership knows the importance of defense. Coach Mike Babcock, who has won a Stanley Cup in 2008 with the Detroit Red Wings, had a team that was first in goals against that year. General Manager Lou Lamoriello won his last Stanley Cup with the New Jersey Devils in 2003, they were also first in goals against.
However, the team’s defense should be stronger. The team boasts a number of young, developing defensemen like Nikita Zaitsev, who is just 25 years old. Morgan Rielly is only 23 years old. Jake Gardiner is 27. Martin Marincin is 25 as well, while Connor Carrick is 23. That’s a young defense and maybe a major reason why the team brought Hainsey in. However, even with a year of development, how much better can this defense be?
- With rookie camps just a week away for many teams, Fanrag’s Craig Morgan put together a detailed list of rookies who could make an impact on the team. While it has the usual candidates like Nico Hischier, Nolan Patrick and Clayton Keller, there are quite a few lesser known ones as well. Players like Washington’s Jakub Vrana, New York Islanders’ Ryan Pulock and Columbus’ Pierre-Luc Dubois are players rarely mentioned who could make an impact this year.
- Sports Illustrated featured New Jersey Devils Will Butcher after he chose the Devils last weekend. Butcher claims he sees similarities in his game to three NHL players including Chicago’s Duncan Keith, Boston’s Torey Krug and New Jersey’s Andy Greene. ”If I was fortunate to make the big team, he would be a great mentor to me, just because he does everything,” Butcher said of Greene. ”He penalty kills, power play, all situations. He is a smart player, not necessarily the biggest guy, but he uses his abilities to defend well and play the game of hockey.”
Tavares To Toronto Highly Unlikely
Although it seems to occur every time a high-profile free-agent could hit the market, Toronto media have once again conjured a dream of landing a superstar. John Tavares is experiencing major difficulty in coming to terms with the New York Islanders, primarily because of the uncertainty of their arena situation. The team needs to prove that they are both competitive and can secure a home for the foreseeable future. Enter Toronto, who believes that the contract negotiation difficulty automatically propels them into a top-3 competitor for Tavares’ services. If this story may sound familiar, that’s because it occurred just last off-season when Steven Stamkos was stalling his new deal with Tampa Bay.
Toronto inarguably is in a far superior negotiating position than they were in 2016. They’ve made the playoffs and took the Washington Capitals to their limits, and flaunt a young core who established itself as dominant quite before most believed possible. Given another season of success, the Leafs could be serious contenders for any UFA on the market. That said, a Tavares signing would be absurdly difficult and ultimately impractical for a multitude of reasons. The Leafs’ fanbase is already (rightfully) fretting over the difficulty of keeping Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews, and William Nylander together while staying under the cap ceiling. Each player will command hefty money on long-term deals, and the best case scenario (cap-wise) is that one of the three might have a “down” statistical year.
Even ignoring those future contracts, Toronto already made matters more complicated by signing Patrick Marleau to a 3-year contract worth $6.25 MM AAV. Assuming that the team keeps one or two of James van Riemsdyk, Leo Komarov, and Tyler Bozak (all UFAs in 2018), they will have precious room to devote to Tavares beyond 2018-19. After that point, Matthews and Marner will both be on new deals with heavy cap hits. Craig Button of TSN suggests that the Leafs could offer Tavares a one-year deal, but there is little to no security in such an arrangement. If the Islanders are unable to move Tavares or simply fall short of securing a new contract, Tavares will be likely seek a long-term arrangement. His primary stated concern at present is security, and a one-year contract elsewhere certainly doesn’t achieve said goal.
By signing Marleau, the writing for Toronto fans should have been clear and visible. Still, the Tavares hope persists. It’s not impossible that Tavares could sign a long-term contract in Toronto, but it would take a major roster overhaul to achieve. One of Marner or Nylander would necessarily need to depart, and the amount of money spent on the offense would only increase further. It seems likely that GM Lou Lamoriello will simply build upon the core that has been so successful without gutting the progress made. It would be unrealistic to expect Lamoriello to not at least inquire about Tavares if he indeed hits unrestricted free agency, but it would require a major organizational commitment without any real certainty in the matter. Tavares will receive a long-term contract, whether it is from New York or another franchise, but as of now the Leafs are not in a position to extend such an offer.
Morning Notes: Matthews, Boqvist, Vancouver
While the Edmonton Oilers lock up Connor McDavid and the Buffalo Sabres prepare an extension for Jack Eichel, the Toronto Maple Leafs have their own young phenom to start worrying about. Auston Matthews will be eligible for an extension on July 1st 2018, and James Mirtle of The Athletic was on TSN Radio this morning to discuss the general parameters.
Mirtle disagreed with the idea that players are upset at McDavid for taking less than the maximum, but did admit that it will set a sort of ceiling on any contract coming out of an entry-level deal. He suspects Matthews will earn around $11MM per season on his eventual deal. While the Maple Leafs are currently playing games with long-term injured reserve just to stay under the cap, they’ll have plenty of room by 2019 when Matthews (and Mitch Marner) are due for huge raises. The team has just six active skaters signed for that year, and could easily have some prospects still working through their ELC to help balance the check book.
- Grant McCagg of Recrutes.ca released his latest “Grant’s Slant” piece today, discussing the emerging draft stock of Adam Boqvist and how he could challenge Rasmus Dahlin as the top option out of Sweden next year. Boqvist played extremely well at the Ivan Hlinka tournament and McCagg points at recent examples—Oliver Kylington and Timothy Liljegren in particular—of Swedish defenders falling rapidly in their draft year. It doesn’t look like Dahlin will give up his spot at the top of most draft boards next spring, but it would be silly to sleep on Boqvist who will be a top prospect in his own right.
- Rick Dhaliwal of News 1130 in Vancouver has been all over the Alex Kerfoot situation, and now reports that the NCAA free agent will visit the Canucks today. That will be his first visit, but it won’t be his only one as “several teams” have been in contact with his camp. The former Harvard captain did not sign with the New Jersey Devils before the deadline, and has been linked to his hometown Canucks for some time. The undersized forward has a nice skill set but like many other college free agents could have limited upside in the long-term.