Latest On Erik Karlsson’s Pending Free Agency
When Erik Karlsson‘s postseason came to an end and he posted a thank you note on Twitter to the entire Bay Area, hockey fans immediately tried to determine what it meant in regards to his pending free agency. Was Karlsson saying goodbye to the San Jose Sharks after just one season? When rumors surfaced about the Tampa Bay Lightning, Ottawa Senators and Montreal Canadiens, it seemed like the star defenseman might be heading back to the Eastern Conference. Not if Sharks GM Doug Wilson has anything to say about it. Both Kevin Kurz of The Athletic (subscription required) and Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet have reported in recent days that the Sharks are working hard to re-sign the right-handed defenseman, with a contract similar to Drew Doughty‘s eight-year, $88MM deal on the table.
Friedman notes that the team will need a decision soon as they prepare for the rest of their summer, but Karlsson is now just a few days away from the free agent interview period. Even if he does want to hear out other teams however, a contract of that magnitude may be too hard to turn down. Karlsson’s recent injury history may have reduced the number of teams willing to offer him such a lucrative contract, and San Jose is the only team that can give him that elusive eighth year.
Karlsson recently underwent groin surgery but is expected to recover fully by the start of the 2019-20 season, an announcement that was made by the Sharks earlier this month. San Jose will obviously have the best medical insight of any team, and if they are willing to hand over that kind of salary they must truly believe he can get back to full strength.
Even if he can get close to it, the team would have a game-changing talent on their hands. Though his injury history and dramatic fallout in Ottawa have clouded his career recently, it’s important to remember just how dominant Karlsson has been throughout his career. A four-time Norris Trophy finalist—twice won—he has routinely cracked the 70-point mark and was on that kind of a pace in his shortened 2018-19 season. Even while playing injured during the postseason he recorded 16 points in 19 games for the Sharks, lifting his career playoff totals to 53 in 67 games. It’s almost impossible to find that kind of offensive contribution from the blue line, but amazingly the Sharks already have Brent Burns capable of the same thing.
Still, a contract like that would have ramifications on the Sharks’ lineup. It would mean committing somewhere around $26MM to three defensemen, two of which are already well into their thirties but still under contract for at least another six years. It would mean a huge part of the ~$25MM in cap space the team currently has would be eaten up, a number that also needs to accommodate new contracts for Kevin Labanc, Timo Meier and Joakim Ryan while also leaving room to re-sign Joe Thornton and Joe Pavelski if the team chooses.
If the Sharks aren’t able to make a deal, it will be interesting to see what kind of market develops for Karlsson and whether or not it costs him in the long run to wait and listen. The free agent interview period will start on June 23rd.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Rangers, Islanders, Devils Interested In Winnipeg’s Jacob Trouba
While there are rumored to be many teams that have expressed interest in Winnipeg Jets defenseman Jacob Trouba, the New York area could be his eventual destination as the New York Rangers, New York Islanders and New Jersey Devils have been the most aggressive teams in pursuit of the young defenseman, according to the New York Post’s Larry Brooks.
Each team could truly use the 25-year-old Trouba, who hasn’t expressed any desire to sign a long-term deal with the Jets, and with him being one year away from unrestricted free agency, the Jets are expected to move the talented blueliner. However, Brooks writes that he’s heard from multiple sources that Winnipeg has not given permission to inquiring clubs to speak with Trouba’s agent, Kurt Overhardt, about a long-term contract, which could run as high as seven years and $7.5MM.
All three teams, however, would have the cap room to make a commitment to Trouba with all three teams having the assets to make a deal happen, although the price is expected to be costly. The Jets are reportedly asking for a first-round pick and two top prospects or two young NHL players, likely signed to low-cost contracts. That is likely to be exactly what they’ll get as Trouba, a 6-foot-3, 202-pound blueliner had a breakout season offensively with a career high 50 points last season, including 42 assists, which was ninth in the league for defensemen.
The Rangers already have the Jets’ first-round pick in next week’s draft (#20 overall), acquired in the Kevin Hayes trade, and could offer a significant package, according to Brooks, including restricted free agent Pavel Buchnevich and a prospect. However, that might not be enough as both the Islanders and Devils have quite a few prospects in their own system. That brings to question whether the Rangers might consider including Lias Andersson as part of their package to acquire Trouba. Would the Islanders consider moving defensie prospect Noah Dobson or would the Devils include Jesper Boqvist or Jesper Bratt in a deal?
Free Agent Focus: New York Rangers
Free agency is now less than a month away from opening up and there are quite a few prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign. The Rangers have a lot of options when it comes to the upcoming free agency period, but don’t have as much to concern themselves with when it comes to their own free agents. New York does have a few restricted free agents they must worry about, but few players to concern themselves among unrestricted free agents.
Key Restricted Free Agents: F Pavel Buchnevich — The Rangers must be thrilled with the continued improvements of their 24-year-old forward, who has continually taken his game up a notch in all three years, scoring eight goals as a rookie, 14 goals last season and moving into a permanent top-six role in 2018-19 with a 21-goal campaign. That number was more impressive considering he only played 64 games due to a broken thumb and some issues with head coach David Quinn, although he eventually developed a solid relationship with the coach. His 15:10 ATOI was lower than a number of lesser forwards as he ranked ninth in that area among forwards, but should increase significantly next season. Now that his entry-level deal is up, New York must pay him significantly more than the $925K he was previously making. However, with his development, it’s more likely the team will seek a bridge deal in hopes that his progress continues to improve.
F Brendan Lemieux — The Rangers didn’t get a lot of time to evaluate Lemieux, who the team acquired at the trade deadline as part of the Kevin Hayes trade. While not a key piece to the deal, New York hoped that the 23-year-old would give them a key bottom-six winger for a number of years as he had proved to be an agitator in his 53 games played in Winnipeg. Lemieux started his tenure in New York off well as he provided that grit the team needed, but after averaging 7:25 of ATOI with the Jets, his minutes jumped to 12:50 with the Rangers, and he quickly wore down, suggesting he lacked conditioning. In 19 games, he accumulated six points, 64 penalty minutes and two misconducts, which is a lot of penalties. Regardless, it’s likely the Rangers will seek a short-term deal so that Lemieux can prove himself.
D Neal Pionk — After showing off impressive skills in a trial during the 2017-18 season, the 23-year-old blueliner didn’t fare as well in his first full season with the Rangers. Pionk finished the season with six goals and 26 points but also saw his plus/minus drop to minus-16, but found himself in Quinn’s doghouse quite often in the second half of the season and was often a healthy scratch as he tallied just one point and seven points in his final 37 games. With a number of young defenseman close to ready for a regular NHL role, general manager Jeff Gorton will have to decide whether Pionk should stay with the defense or whether the team should move on from him. Expect him to get a short-term or even more likely a one-year deal on a “prove it” contract.
Other RFAs: D Julius Bergman, D Chris Bigras, D Fredrik Claesson, D Anthony DeAngelo, G Brandon Halverson, F Vinni Lettieri, G Chris Nell
Key Unrestricted Free Agents: D John Gilmour — Yes, Gilmour, who played a total of five games for the Rangers this past year, is the team’s top unrestricted free agent. The Group 6 free agent played 28 games during the 2017-18 season, but found himself playing a full season for the Hartford Wolf Pack in the AHL where he dominated, scoring 20 goals and 54 points and was named to the AHL All-Star team. However, he has been passed over on the prospect chart by Ryan Lindgren and Libor Hajek and doesn’t seem to be a major part of the team’s long-range plans although he could be a cheap 6/7th defensive option for the Rangers if they want a low-cost option.
Other UFAs: F Connor Brickley, D Rob O’Gara, G Dustin Tokarski
Projected Cap Space: With a little less than $64MM in commitments for next season (per CapFriendly), the team has room to make changes, but it’s unlikely the team will make any long-term commitments in house this offseason. The team is far more likely to go with multiple short-term deals and focus on fast-tracking their rebuilding efforts as they will likely attempt to bring in a top free agent to supplement its young players.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Snapshots: Blue Jackets, Sharks, Avalanche
GM Jarmo Kekalainen and the Blue Jackets knew what they were getting into when they held on to top impending free agents Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovksy, despite substantial hints that both planned to depart, and then went out and added another valued UFA in Matt Duchene at the NHL Trade Deadline. Columbus went all in, and while they didn’t win or even reach the Stanley Cup, they did succeed in winning the franchise’s first ever playoff round. Now, as they get set to potentially watch several star player walk away as free agents, Kekalainen and company are going to either squeeze every last drop out of those UFA’s or at least won’t make it any easier for them to jump to rival teams. TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reports that the Blue Jackets have declined to give Panarin and Bobrovksy permission to talk to other teams about a sign-and-trade possibility. They have also kept the price of acquiring their negotiating rights high; LeBrun speculates the team is asking for a second-round pick. As the June 23rd UFA negotiation period approaches, and not long after it the start of free agency on July 1st, it seems Panarin and Bobrovsky are likely to remain Blue Jackets until the very last minute, unless a team ponies up. As for Duchene, the Blue Jackets remain interested in re-signing him, so similar rumors haven’t started yet, but don’t expect the deadline addition to be treated any differently if it comes to that.
- Columbus has likely lost hope of re-signing their top free agents, but San Jose is still holding out when it comes to Erik Karlsson. Karlsson is set to be the top defenseman on the market, but the Sharks would like him to skip that opportunity in favor of remaining with the team. The Athletic’s Kevin Kurz writes that the two sides continue to work on an extension, with terms rumored to be close to the eight-year, $88MM contract signed by Drew Doughty of the rival Los Angeles Kings. Barring a trade in the coming weeks, only San Jose can offer Karlsson that eighth year, which may be even more valuable to the veteran defenseman given his recurring injury issues this season. Kurz agrees that the market may have cooled for Karlsson, so a long-term offer from the Sharks will very likely be the best deal he gets. This makes his decision less about salary and more about whether San Jose is where Karlsson wants to potentially spend the rest of his career.
- Misinformation is very common in draft and free agency season, so it should come as little surprise that one Denver source says the Avalanche are interested in drafting defenseman Bowen Byram just days after another said they weren’t. Byram is undoubtedly the best defenseman in the draft class, so no team with the chance to draft him is going to totally ignore him. The WHL product could go as early as No. 3 to the Chicago Blackhawks, but likely won’t get any farther than No. 6 to the Detroit Red Wings. Colorado falls squarely in the middle there at fourth overall and will surely consider Byram. But if Mike Chambers of The Denver Post is to be believed, the Avs will take the “best player available” route with their first of two first-round picks and would select Byram if he’s there. We won’t know for sure how it all plays out for just over one more week.
Ottawa Senators Re-Sign Morgan Klimchuk
The Ottawa Senators have decided to keep a former top prospect around, signing Morgan Klimchuk to a one-year two-way contract worth $700K at the NHL level. Klimchuk came to the Senators organization in a trade from the Toronto Maple Leafs in January and was scheduled for restricted free agency this summer.
Originally selected 28th overall by the Calgary Flames, things haven’t gone as planned for the 24-year old winger. Klimchuk has suited up for only a single NHL game during his professional career, instead spending most of his time in the minor leagues with the Stockton Heat. He was acquired by the Maple Leafs last season in exchange for Andrew Nielsen, but played just 13 games for the Toronto Marlies before being flipped to Ottawa.
If you’re the Senators though, taking chances on players like Klimchuk might be necessary. The team has floundered near the bottom of the league for the last two seasons and watched basically all of their top players leave through various trades. If somehow the young forward can put his game together and fulfill some of the promise he showed in junior they would have a player on their hands. If not, a one-year two-way deal poses almost no risk to the organization. Klimchuk will likely get every chance to make the Senators out of camp, as he’ll need waivers in order to be sent to the AHL this season.
Kevin Hayes Visits With Philadelphia Flyers
Since acquiring the exclusive negotiating rights of Kevin Hayes earlier this month, the Philadelphia Flyers have had some preliminary conversations with the pending free agent on a potential contract. Yesterday, Hayes actually met with the Flyers in person and according to Frank Seravalli of TSN was impressed with his visit. Still, Seravalli reports that Philadelphia “isn’t No. 1″ on the veteran center’s list, and notes that the Columbus Blue Jackets and Arizona Coyotes might be of interest.
Hayes, 27, was acquired from the Winnipeg Jets for a fifth-round pick in order to give Philadelphia a head start on contract negotiations. It’s not the first time that Hayes might be intrigued by the idea of free agency however, as he decided not to sign with the Chicago Blackhawks out of college despite the team spending a first-round selection on him in 2010. The Boston College alum decided to sign with the New York Rangers instead, and played the first four and a half seasons of his pro career there before a mid-season trade took him to Winnipeg in February.
There are plenty of reasons why the Flyers would be interested, given that Hayes is coming off his best offensive season. The 6’5” center recorded 54 points in 71 games, though failed to crack the 20-goal mark once again. He has done so in just one of his NHL seasons, something of a red flag for a team expecting him to contribute big numbers at even strength. Still, his size and two-way ability make him a desirable asset for pretty much anyone looking for depth down the middle, something Philadelphia could use if Claude Giroux is going to stay on the wing.
As one of the younger players available this summer, there will be no shortage of suitors for Hayes. The Blue Jackets would make sense if Matt Duchene departs in free agency, while the Coyotes have been trying to find consistent production at the center position for years. Both teams also have former teammates of Hayes from New York involved in some way. Derek Stepan is a leader in the Arizona locker room, while Rick Nash has been working with Columbus GM Jarmo Kekalainen for the last while.
Canucks Notes: Free Agency Targets, Edler, Eriksson
Vancouver GM Jim Benning continues to be honest and open with the media this off-season about the direction of the team and his plans moving forward. In a media session yesterday, the veteran executive spoke on a number of topics, including the positions he will try to fill in free agency. Per NHL.com’s Kevin Woodley, Benning was happy to reveal who he may target:
Going forward now, if we are going to add through free agency, we want to try to add top-four defensemen or top-six forwards, so I think our needs in that way have changed. I haven’t been shy about stating that we would like to improve our defense. There are different avenues to try to do that, so we’re looking at all those avenues.
The “change” that Benning is referring to is in contrast to last off-season, when the Canucks spent on bottom-six depth in free agency, targeting Jay Beagle, Antoine Roussel, and Tim Schaller. This year, the names that the team will seek will be more high-profile. Up front, Vancouver has already been linked to Marcus Johansson, while British Columbia-native Brett Connolly will also likely be in consideration. On the back end, Jake Gardiner is known to be a free agent target, although Benning’s comments make it seem as though the Canucks could also scour the trade market for a top-four defenseman as well. One way or another, it seems this summer will be more exciting than the last for Vancouver.
- That “top-four target” could also come internally, as Benning acknowledges that the team is still working through contract talks with long-time stalwart Alex Edler. Edler is an impending free agent and asked not to be traded at the trade deadline this past season in hopes of an extension with Vancouver. Months later, a deal has not yet been signed. It appears that term and trade protection appear to be the sticking points, especially as the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft looms. Edler would like protection from a possible Seattle selection, but Benning and the Canucks would rather use one of their limited slots on a key young piece. Sportsnet’s Iain MacIntyre relays some honest words from Benning on the subject:
I think it’s fair to say we don’t have the appetite to do that. We had to do that last time with Daniel and Henrik Sedin. But we’re going to have some good young players that we need to protect or we’ll lose them.
- Edler could be gone if talks don’t improve, and so could another veteran, Loui Eriksson. Benning spoke to Eriksson’s comments to a Swedish newspaper earlier this off-season, when he stated that he did not trust or get along with head coach Travis Green. Benning said that he has plans to talk with Eriksson soon, but that those comments are a true cause for concern and a trade could be a real possibility. This isn’t the first we’ve heard of Eriksson trade rumors, with many linking him to the Edmonton Oilers and former head coach Dave Tippett in a possible swap for fellow expensive and under-performing forward Milan Lucic. However, Benning’s comments would imply that a trade could happen even if it isn’t with Edmonton. The team may have trouble finding a taker for the remaining three years and $6MM AAV on Eriksson’s contract, but if it’s a matter of team chemistry, the team may have to do whatever it takes to move the seasoned winger.
Spencer Foo Heading To KHL
One of the prizes of college free agency in 2017 was Spencer Foo, who had just finished putting up 62 points in 38 games for Union College as a junior and appeared ready to take his talents to the NHL. The Calgary Flames eventually landed Foo, who inked a two-year entry-level deal and jumped right into professional hockey with plenty of success. The Edmonton native has played 129 regular season games for the AHL Stockton Heat over the past two seasons, recording 37 goals and 77 points during that time. He’s also chipped in two goals in four NHL appearances with the Flames, but it doesn’t look like he’ll get another chance anytime soon.
Foo has agreed to a contract with Kunlun Red Star of the KHL according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet, who notes that it would give the young forward a chance to play for China at the 2022 Olympics where they will be part of the tournament as host nation. The 25-year old was scheduled to become a restricted free agent this summer, and while the Flames can retain his negotiating rights temporarily with a qualifying offer, they would expire before his KHL contract does.
Avalanche Notes: Hayes, No. 4 Pick, Knight
The Colorado Avalanche made history on this day in 1996, winning the Stanley Cup in their inaugural season after moving to Denver. The eight-seed Avs came surprisingly close to getting back the Cup Final this year, upsetting the Calgary Flames in the first round and taking the San Jose Sharks to Game Seven in the second round. Colorado is closer to being a legitimate contender than some may have thought and are hoping to add some veteran pieces this off-season to improve their odds. GM Joe Sakic, a member of that ’96 team, is planning to be aggressive this summer, but his plan took an unexpected early hit when the Philadelphia Flyers acquired the negotiating rights of Kevin Hayes, expected to be one of Colorado’s top targets.
However, it’s already been a week since that trade was made and the Flyers and Hayes have not come to terms on a new contract. Talks are still reportedly progressing, but there’s less certainty that Hayes will end up signing with the team. In fact, BSN Denver’s AJ Haefele states that talks may not be going as well as Philadelphia would like fans to think, after surrendering a draft pick for the right to negotiate with Hayes. Haefele says that “things with Hayes and Philly haven’t really gone great so far”, adding that there’s still optimism but the clock is ticking toward the opening of free agency. If Hayes doesn’t come to terms with the Flyers and hits the open market, the Avalanche would have to be considered the favorite to land the two-way center given the many sources that have linked the two sides.
- Haefele had another intriguing note for Avs fans tonight regarding the first of the team’s two first round picks, the No. 4 overall selection. Haefele believes, based on discussions with several sources, that Colorado will be targeting a forward with the pick, and that’s regardless of whether or not Bowen Byram is available. Byram, the top defenseman in the draft by a wide margin, is considered by many to perhaps be the third-best prospect overall. However, given the considerable draft capital that the Chicago Blackhawks have used on defensemen in recent years, they may pass on Byram at No. 3. It seems the Avalanche would do the same, opting to focus on their need for secondary scoring rather than adding a top young defenseman, with Cale Makar and Conor Timmins already in the fold. This should come as good new for the Los Angeles Kings, who could desperately use a blue chip defensive prospect. As for the Avs, Dylan Cozens, Trevor Zegras, and Kirby Dach are among the top forward prospects who could be available in this scenario.
- There were clues to Colorado’s focus on a forward with their first pick before Haefele’s report, too. The team was curiously one of the few not to interview a number of projected late first-round forwards at the NHL Scouting Combine, leading many to assume that they would target a forward early and look elsewhere with their second pick, No. 16. The other explanation is that the Avalanche have already zeroed in one one specific player for that slot: top goaltender Spencer Knight. Although many are in agreement that Knight is a first-round caliber goalie, it’s easier for a team to stomach selecting a keeper that early if they have two picks in the round. Colorado is just one of five teams to pick twice in the first round this year, but they are the first team to use their second pick. Barring an unforeseen selection by a lottery team, the Avs could get ahead of the rest of the pack by selecting Knight at No. 16 and adding their goalie of the future. This is far from a guarantee, but certainly an idea that carries some merit.
Washington Capitals Re-Sign Liam O’Brien
The Washington Capitals have re-signed minor league forward Liam O’Brien to a one-year, two way contract. The deal will pay O’Brien $700K in the NHL, and allows him to avoid restricted free agency this summer. Because of his age, O’Brien could potentially become a Group VI unrestricted free agent next year should he fail to play in another 63 NHL games this season.
O’Brien, 24, was signed as an undrafted free agent back in 2014 after a long junior career in the QMJHL. The physical forward eventually made his NHL debut that season, earning himself 23 penalty minutes in 13 games as a rookie. Those 13 contests would be more than he has seen in the NHL since, but O’Brien has now worked his way to more of an offensive threat in the minor leagues. For the Hershey Bears this season, he still ended up with his normal 100+ penalty minutes but also added 15 goals and 28 points.
Unless something changes in training camp, O’Brien will likely serve as a depth option for the Capitals again this season. His minimum salary might come in handy, but the Bears will likely see more of him.