Snapshots: Islanders, Gudlevskis, Lucic, Canadiens
The New York Islanders have made a coaching move, but not the anticipated one. Still lacking a head coach for his team, Lou Lamoriello has nevertheless made another change to the coaching staff, firing assistant Greg Cronin. The Athletic’s Arthur Staple confirmed the move, but added that no other coaching decisions have been made yet at the NHL or AHL level. Staple also had nothing to say about any of the motivations behind Cronin’s departure. Ironically, if Lamoriello was to tab Boston Bruins’ assistant Jay Pandolfo as his head coach, the Boston native Cronin would be an easy fix to replace him.
- The Islanders have struggled in net for too long and need to make a change at goalie. That all but rules out recycling any of their unrestricted free agent goaltenders. Jaroslav Halak, Christopher Gibson, and Kristers Gudlevskis are all set to hit the open market and of the three, Gudlevskis faces the lowest chances of finding employment again in the NHL. Once a highly-regarded prospect for the Tampa Bay Lightning, Gudlevskis play in the AHL simply never reached an elite level that would have warranted an extended look at the highest level. This past season, he performed poorly and was handily outplayed by Gibson. As such, he may not have many opportunities in North America next season. It is no surprise then that Latvian news outlet OlyBet reports that Gudlevksis has had preliminary talks with Dinamo Riga, the KHL team in his native country. Gudlevskis was brought up in the Riga junior ranks and even appeared in two games with the big league team before coming overseas. Gudlevskis has never returned to Europe since and his preference would likely be to stay in the NHL, but it would be a natural fit with Dinamo if the offers don’t come from NHL teams this summer.
- In today’s edition of TSN’s “Insider Trading”, Pierre LeBrun and Darren Dreger have set the record straight about the trade market for Edmonton Oilers forward Milan Lucic. It was previously believed that the Oilers were shopping Lucic in hopes of ridding themselves of his contract, but in speaking with several team executives, LeBrun and Dreger feel that is not the case. Instead, they have heard that Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli is seeking hockey trades rather than cap dump trades for Lucic. This would indicate that it is Lucic who has requested the trade and Edmonton is simply trying to oblige him.
- One team rumored to be in on Lucic is actually out, according to LeBrun. The Montreal Canadiens, who pursued the power forward and former Bruins enforcer vigorously when he initially hit free agency, were speculated to again be interested in acquiring Lucic. The Habs could use some size up front and Lucic shared a strong rapport with coach Claude Julien when the pair were in Boston. However, LeBrun states that they are definitively “out” on Lucic.
Vancouver Canucks, Markus Granlund Discussing Short-Term Deal
When the Vancouver Canucks traded Hunter Shinkaruk in 2016 in exchange for Markus Granlund, most saw it as an immediate win for the Calgary Flames. Shinkaruk was a recent first-round pick and was in the midst of an excellent season for the Utica Comets, with 21 goals in 45 games. A year later, things weren’t as rosy. Granlund went on to score 19 goals and 32 points for the Canucks in 2016-17, and looked like a key piece for the team going forward. Shinkaruk played in seven games for the Flames recording a single point. Now, another year later, things aren’t so lopsided.
Granlund recorded just 12 points in 53 games this season, battling injury and putting up wildly inconsistent performances. His possession statistics fell off a cliff thanks to new head coach Travis Green giving him tough defensive assignments, while his powerplay time saw a huge decline and penalty kill time a huge increase. He had been forced into a new role, one that didn’t afford him much success offensively. Meanwhile, Shinkaruk played the entire season at the AHL level and posted his worst offensive season since his rookie year.
Still, the Canucks have the player contributing in the NHL and now are faced with a decision this summer. Granlund is scheduled to become a restricted free agent, and at age-25 is getting closer and closer to UFA status. Rick Dhaliwal of Sportsnet spoke with agent Todd Diamond, who claims the team has spoken to him about a short-term deal for his client. A two-year contract would take Granlund to unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2020, but also might be all the Canucks are willing to commit to a player that doesn’t have a role that suits his game at the moment.
Any deal will likely be a raise on the $900K cap hit Granlund has carried the last two seasons, but it might not be that substantial of one. With the team building around other pieces like Brock Boeser, Adam Gaudette and Elias Pettersson, there’s no clear future for Granlund unless he can turn things around next season. To do that, he’ll have to prove that he can either be an effective checking-line player, or contribute more offensively with the opportunity he’s given.
Free Agent Focus: Philadelphia Flyers
Free agency opens less than three weeks from today and teams are well on their way to evaluating both their own impending free agents and those likely to reach the open market. There are quite a few prominent players expected to be available as unrestricted free agents, while many key restricted free agents will be looking to sign new contracts with their current squads. Here is a breakdown of the Philadelphia Flyers’ free agent situation.
Key Restricted Free Agents: G Petr Mrazek – As soon as the Flyers acquired Mrazek from the Detroit Red Wings at the NHL Trade Deadline, it was anticipated that there could be some confusion this off-season. The 26-year-old goalie needs a new contract, but the team holding his exclusive negotiating rights doesn’t have a place for him right now. Philadelphia still has their 2017-18 tandem of Brian Elliott and Michal Neuvirth under contract for another season and that won’t change unless they find a trade partner for one or the other. They also have to deal with the restricted free agency of Alex Lyon and Anthony Stolarz, both of whom are younger than Mrazek and have gotten more than a taste of the NHL level over the past two seasons. There is also Carter Hart to worry about. The CHL Goaltender of the Year and arguably the best goalie prospect in hockey is already under contract and seems to have proven he is beyond the major junior level already. Hart is likely to turn pro next season and needs starts. That’s five other goalies to consider already, so where does Mrazek fit in to the Flyers’ plans?
Not only does he seemingly not have a place in the organization right now, but Mrazek’s performance over the last two seasons also raises serious questions about his ceiling and long-term role in the NHL. After a hot start to his pro career that included two seasons of AHL domination and strong NHL spot starts, followed by two more seasons of impressive play sharing the net in Detroit with Jimmy Howard, things were looking up for Mrazek. He had essentially won the starting job heading into the 2016-17 despite being just 24 years old and seemed to be the Red Wings’ long-term answer in net. That idea fell apart quickly as Mrazek’s play became sporadic and the more consistent Howard took his job back. Mrazek has now posted two straight seasons of 3.00+ goals against averages and save percentages just narrowly in the .900’s. The 17 appearances that Mrazek made in Philadelphia after the trade were even worse than his games played in Detroit early last season, including one singular, disastrous playoff appearance, negating the thought that he needed a change of scenery.
So what to expect for negotiations with a young goalie, formerly considered a rising star, who has struggled for two years, even more so with his current team, and has no role carved out for him moving forward? In all likelihood, the answer is a trade. The Flyers gave away two conditional mid-round picks to get Mrazek when they were desperate for a goalie down the stretch. They would be lucky to get that back for his RFA rights in an off-season deal. Mrazek may also end up simply not receiving a qualifying offer. If, against the odds, Philadelphia decides they want to extend Mrazek, expect just a cheap, one-year deal- nowhere near his expired $4MM cap hit – and another move or two by the organization to make some space for yet another goalie.
D Robert Hagg – One of a number of young, up-and-coming Flyers defenseman, Hagg skated in 70 games and averaged over 18 minutes a night in his rookie season. While Hagg only registered nine points on the year, he showed good two-way ability and a solid checking game. He was one of only three Philadelphia defensemen with a positive rating and played a clean game despite leading the team in hits by a wide margin with 238. There is a lot to like about the young defender.
However, there is also a lot to take into account when quantifying his next contract. The Flyers already have overpaid bruisers Andrew MacDonald and Radko Gudas signed for two more years as well as Shayne Gostisbehere on a long-term deal. Ivan Provorov will surely land an expensive, long-term deal next summer and Travis Sanheim will need an extension as well. Additionally, the gifted but unproven Samuel Morin is an RFA alongside Hagg this summer. The Flyers need to be careful with how they handle this crowded blue line. As solid as Hagg looked in his rookie year, don’t be surprised to see him sign a shorter bridge deal for only a marginal pay increase while the team waits out some of its veteran contracts.
Other RFAs: F Taylor Leier, F Danick Martel, F Tyrell Goulbourne, D Samuel Morin, D Reece Willcox, G Alex Lyon, G Anthony Stolarz
Key Unrestricted Free Agents: F Valtteri Filppula – The 34-year-old Filppula is seeking a multi-year deal. There are many who doubt that the Flyers will be the team to give it to him. The veteran center has had a long and successful career as a complementary top-nine player, but the price tag for that support-level production on his last contract was $5MM. Since coming over from the Tampa Bay Lightning two years ago, Filppula’s offense has been in decline. He has still played an important role in Philadelphia, including that of a penalty kill specialist, but with 41 points in 101 regular season games in orange and black, Filppula hasn’t earned the right to command that kind of money again. If he is willing to give up salary in exchange for term, he could still play a key bottom-six role for the Flyers. However, the open market could pull him towards a team in greater need who would be willing to better compensate him.
D Brandon Manning – Like Mrazek, Philadelphia needs to first find a place for Manning before committing to re-signing him. A career Flyer, Manning hit career highs on offense in his sixth season with the team. He also bounced back from a down 2016-17 season mentally with a safer game and more well-thought out approach. Yet, Manning’s numbers on both sides of the puck are still very pedestrian. Although there could be concerns that letting Manning walk and replacing him internally would add more inexperience to a young blue line, there is no doubt that Manning’s minutes could be easily replicated. The 28-year-old only made $975K in each of the last two years, but if he looks for a substantial raise he will likely price himself out of Philadephia’s consideration. Manning will return on a short-term, low money deal or – more likely – he will sign a similar deal for only marginally more elsewhere.
Other UFAs: F Matt Read, F Colin McDonald, D Johnny Oduya, D Will O’Neill, G Dustin Tokarski, G John Muse
Projected Cap Space: The Flyers are not in any cap trouble right now, but things can change quickly. Currently, they have over $17MM in cap space based on this year’s cap limit of $75MM. That is expected to increase to somewhere between $78-82MM, likely giving Philly somewhere closer to $22MM in space. First things first, they need to figure out their free agency situation this year, which includes new deals for many on the long list of pro-ready RFA’s above and perhaps another one or two of their own UFA’s. This is where GM Ron Hextall will need to be careful. He doesn’t want to use up too much of his space on luxuries like unnecessary extra goalies and defenseman or overpaying an aging forward. He also doesn’t need to give a player like Hagg an expensive extension right now, especially when he is the type of player with a limited ceiling who will likely command a similar amount after a few years on a bridge deal. Next, the team needs to keep in mind that next season they will have to hand pricey extensions to Wayne Simmonds and Provorov and could very likely be on the hunt again for a starting-caliber goalie to pair with Hart moving forward. None of those transactions will come cheap and the team can’t expect another major cap jump. Instead, they will have to account for those moves this off-season. At the end of the day, $22MM or so can only get you so far when you have a complete roster and many long-term contracts. Expect the Flyers to hit the free agent market with a pretty limited budget of no more than $7-8MM, likely in search of an upgrade to Filppula and/or Manning.
Jay Beagle Hopes To Return To Washington Capitals
The Washington Capitals are fresh off the first Stanley Cup victory in franchise history, but before long they’ll need to start dealing with pressing offseason issues. Though John Carlson is at the top of that chart, there are several other key players headed for unrestricted free agency. One of those players is Jay Beagle, who while not an offensive force was a huge faceoff man and defensive presence for the Capitals throughout the playoffs. Beagle made his intentions clear today to media including Tarik El-Bashir of NBC Sports, saying that he wanted to return and calling Washington “home.”
Beagle, 32, registered 22 points in 79 games this season but won a career-high 58.5% of his faceoffs and logged more than two and a half minutes of short-handed ice time on a nightly basis. Those numbers easily led all Capitals forwards, and he improved to better than 60% on the draw in his 23 playoff contests. With the firepower that the team has up front in players like Alex Ovechkin and Evgeni Kuznetsov, they could afford to have a defensive specialist like Beagle further down in the lineup.
Whether they can afford him going forward though is another question. Beagle is coming off the final season of a three-year deal that paid him $1.75MM annually, and with the Capitals trying to squeeze every last dollar out of the roster in order to retain John Carlson this summer, Beagle may have to take a pay cut to stay with the club. Paying a fourth-line center more than $2MM seems out of the question for the Capitals going forward, a total he could likely secure on the open market after his successful playoff run.
Washington heads into the offseason with somewhere around $16MM in cap space depending on where the upper-limit lands, but with new contracts needed for Tom Wilson, Philipp Grubauer, Devante Smith-Pelly and other restricted free agents, as well as a likely $7-8MM price tag on Carlson there isn’t much left in the vault. Even if Grubauer is moved to another team as GM Brian MacLellan hinted at today, the team still has a cap crunch coming and hard decisions to make. Beagle may want to stick around, but there might not be enough money to go around.
Mike Green Has Two Offers From Detroit Red Wings
Free agency is now less than three weeks away, and all eyes are focused on John Tavares and John Carlson as the top prizes. Behind them though is another tier of quality players, including Detroit Red Wings defenseman Mike Green. Green, a former 30-goal, 70-point player from his days in Washington, is still an effective puck-moving option even as he heads into his mid-thirties. According to Craig Custance of The Athletic (subscription required) Green has been given two offers by the Red Wings to re-sign, of both the one- and two-year variety. That might not be enough to keep him around though, as there will be plenty of interest in the free agent when the negotiation period opens a few days after the draft.
Green is coming off of a little bit of a quieter season by his standards but still a productive one as he recorded 33 points in 66 games. However, he wasn’t fully healthy heading into the trade deadline which scared off potential suitors. While he wound up returning briefly after the deadline, he was eventually shut down for the season and underwent cervical spine surgery back in April, one that carried a recovery time of two months.
Those health issues may scare off some teams in free agency, as will his reputation in the defensive zone. While Green has made considerable strides since he was a young player, to get the most out of him still requires some sheltering. Teams that are looking to plug in a top-four defenseman that can do a little bit of everything might be a bit disappointed, though anyone in need of some offense from the blue line should be lining up to bring him aboard.
The Red Wings need both of those things, but aren’t willing to commit to Green long-term as they enter a rebuild. It just doesn’t make much sense to sign an aging defender to a multi-year contract when the team is likely going to—if not outright aiming for a—finish near the bottom of the league and a reset on their salary structure and core players. If Green wants the security of a few seasons, he’ll have to find it elsewhere.
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Jack Johnson’s Value Still High Despite Down Year
Earlier this season Jack Johnson asked the Columbus Blue Jackets to trade him. It didn’t have anything to do with a distaste for the team, city or coaching staff, but instead because he was looking ahead and trying to secure a healthy payday for himself. Johnson had been embroiled in a long, public legal battle with his parents who had racked up debt in his name, and was using a big portion of his Blue Jackets contract to pay it off. When his minutes and role started to slip in Columbus due to the emergence of Zach Werenski and Seth Jones, Johnson started to worry about the fact that he was scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent this summer.
The Blue Jackets would decide not to trade Johnson, instead using him more frequently and keeping him as an integral part of their playoff squad. Now, as he heads towards free agency he may have nothing to worry about in terms of finances. Bob McKenzie was on TSN radio recently and spoke about Johnson, speculating that the defenseman could earn in the “neighborhood of $6MM.” While some may bristle at that number for a 31-year old who registered just 11 points this season, remember that Johnson had logged an average of more than 20 minutes a night for ten straight seasons before finishing at 19:33 this year. Many could still believe that he could play a big role on their blue line, and on a short-term deal pay up to get him.
McKenzie qualified the amount by saying “give or take a million,” and that seems more likely where Johnson will fit in. The biggest thing in his favor though might be the relative lack of quality options on the free agent market behind John Carlson. Calvin de Haan looked like he was on a path for a big payday before he was injured this season, while Mike Green and others present their own risks.
Though there are reports of Johnson being linked to the Montreal Canadiens, most notably by Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet who claimed they could be a “stealth destination” for the free agent defenseman, McKenzie wouldn’t go so far as to say he knows anything about that. He did however say that they could be interested since they are looking to upgrade their defense corps, after a disappointing 2017-18 season.
For whoever signs Johnson, it’s clear that his market is still healthy enough to demand a high-priced deal. It’s not clear how long a team is willing to commit to the two-way defenseman, but we’ll find out in just a few weeks.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Free Agent Focus: New Jersey Devils
Free agency is now less than a month away from opening up and there are quite a few prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign. Here is a breakdown of New Jersey’s free agent situation.
Key Restricted Free Agents: D Steven Santini – The New Jersey Devils went out and acquired Sami Vatanen this season to help a defensive unit that was struggling to keep up with their forward group. While Taylor Hall was putting up an MVP season and Nico Hischier was proving why he was selected first overall, the team didn’t believe they had enough depth on defense and sacrificed Adam Henrique to improve. This summer, further improvement could come from within. Santini, 23, ended up playing 36 games for the Devils in 2017-18, and amazingly logged more than 20 minutes in those games. Though his possession numbers were atrocious, that can largely (but not completely) be explained by the incredibly poor zone starts he was given.
More than 72% of the faceoffs taken while Santini was on the ice were in the defensive zone, one of the most heavily-skewed numbers in the entire NHL. The New Jersey coaching staff heavily sheltered Will Butcher this season to allow him to use his offensive talents, a trade that came at the expense of Santini who is considered more defensively responsible. Now he’ll head into RFA negotiations as a possible full-time option on the blue line going forward, especially if the team lets John Moore walk in free agency. He’s not arbitration eligible, and will likely come to an agreement fairly quickly.
F Miles Wood – Part of the Devils incredible turnaround falls at the feet of Hall and Hischier, but it was the team’s depth up front that had everyone talking. After being a fairly weak offensive team over the last few years they started to come in waves of speed, headlined by Wood’s impressive season. The 22-year old scored 19 goals and was a very effective player for the team at even strength. If he’s given more powerplay opportunities in the future that number could potentially grow even higher, as it wasn’t the result of an outrageous shooting percentage or any other easy to spot outlier.
Other RFAs: F Stefan Noesen, F Blake Coleman, F Nick Lappin, F Kevin Rooney, F Mario Lucia, D Michael Kapla, G Ken Appleby
Key Unrestricted Free Agent: F Michael Grabner – After putting up such a good first half the Devils went out at the trade deadline and acquired some more depth players up front, and even spent a second-round pick (and prospect) on Grabner. That didn’t seem to pay off for the team, as the counter-punch artist added just two goals and five points in 21 games down the stretch for New Jersey before going scoreless in just two playoff contests.
Still, Grabner is coming off back-to-back 27-goal seasons and will be a sought after commodity on the free agent market. The 30-year old speedster is an excellent penalty killer and can stretch defenses better than almost anyone in the league. Though he can struggle at times to finish his chances, and doesn’t create many opportunities for his linemates, many teams would be lucky to have him suit up in their bottom-six. Grabner is coming off just a two-year $3.3MM contract and will likely be looking for a big raise on a multi-year contract. The Devils may believe that’s too rich for them as they instead look to their young players for continued development.
F Patrick Maroon – The other deadline addition for New Jersey was Maroon, who was also coming off a 27-goal season in 2016-17. This year he had just 17, but found his playmaking stride for the Devils and recorded 13 points in 17 games. Struggling with the rest of the team in their first-round playoff exit, he still could represent a perfect fit for the Devils who don’t have many other players in the power forward mold. Maroon is an excellent puck protector, and has shown that when given the chance to play with skilled players is quick enough to still keep up.
It’s hard to gauge Maroon’s market after he struggled with the Edmonton Oilers early on. He fetched them just a 2019 third round pick and the rights to college forward J.D. Dudek at the deadline, and may not have a ton of teams knocking down his door in the summer. That would be just fine with the Devils if they’re looking to bring him back, though nothing has been reported between the two so far.
Other UFAs: F Jimmy Hayes, F Brian Gibbons, F Drew Stafford, D John Moore, F Michael Latta, F Bracken Kearns, F Ben Thomson
Projected Cap Space: Last season the Devils were seen as a dark horse candidate for nearly every free agent because of their huge amount of cap space and this year should be no different. With nearly $25MM in cap room depending on where the upper limit lands, the team could go after any player they want, including John Tavares or John Carlson. Though there are some restricted free agents to get under contract, GM Ray Shero should have just about all the resources he should need to help the Devils make it back to the playoffs once again.
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Free Agent Focus: Florida Panthers
Free agency opens exactly three weeks from today and teams are well on their way to evaluating both their own impending free agents and those likely to reach the open market. There are quite a few prominent players expected to be available as unrestricted free agents, while many key restricted free agents will be looking to sign new contracts with their current squads. Here is a breakdown of the Florida Panthers’ free agent situation.
Key Restricted Free Agents: C Jared McCann – At age 22 and heading into his fourth NHL season, McCann is still a very raw talent. The 2014 first-round pick often thinks the game faster than he plays it and is prone to mistakes. He plays little special teams role for the Panthers and struggles with many of the defensive aspects of the game at the pro level. McCann is also well below average at the face-off dot. With all that said, his offensive upside is still tremendous. McCann set a career-high with 28 points in 68 games this year and for the first time was a plus player in the league. He has great vision, a strong skating game, and a good shot. When he is on his game he can be dominant; when he is off of it, it’s easy to see why the Vancouver Canucks didn’t hesitate to trade him late into his rookie year. McCann needs to find some consistency and pace to his game and he will flourish, but that still may take some time.
So how should Florida handle that contractually? McCann will understandably want a considerable raise from his entry-level contract, but he also has a fair amount of developmental concerns that he continues to deal with. McCann very well could turn out to be a long-term star for the Panthers, but this situation seems far more likely to warrant a short-term bridge deal for “show me” money. McCann needs to display far more of his impressive offensive ability and far fewer mental lapses and disappearing acts if he wants to command greater salary and term.
LW Frank Vatrano – It’s never an easy situation to sort out when a restricted free agent is acquired mid-season. Florida could not have asked for a better start from Vatrano, who came over from the Bruins at the trade deadline after falling out of favor in Boston. After putting up just two points in 25 games with the Bruins, Vatrano posted eight points in the final 16 games with the Panthers and seemed to fit in well in the team’s top six. Vatrano showed in his first pro season that he has a ton of scoring talent: the undrafted UMass product was the goal-scoring champ of the AHL with 36 goals in 36 games, put up another eight goals in 39 games in Boston, and even recorded eight points in ten games with Team USA at the World Championships. However, Vatrano lacks much depth to his game outside of having a knack for finding the back of the net. Injury and inconsistency over the past two years with the Bruins limited his scoring chances and exposed his lack of an all-around game. When playing with Florida’s finest, his scoring ability came back and those flaws faded into the background. However, Florida is now being asked to evaluate him on just those 16 games.
Like McCann, Vatrano has not earned a long-term deal. The Panthers hope that they get the player they saw down the stretch and gave up a third-round pick to acquire, but there is also the risk he will revert to the mistake-prone, one-track-mind player he was in Boston in recent seasons. Vatrano could be an important piece for Florida moving forward but he could also have a ceiling as an elite AHLer and nothing more. Only time will tell, but because of that risk, expect Vatrano to earn a relatively cheap, one-year deal (even if it has to come through arbitration).
Other RFAs: D Alex Petrovic, D MacKenzie Weegar, D Ed Wittchow, F Curtis Valk, F Gregory Chase, D Linus Hultsrom
Key Unrestricted Free Agents: None. Congratulations to Florida on entering free agency with literally nothing to lose. The team has five impending free agents and one, veteran winger Radim Vrbata, has already announced his retirement. The other four played little role in the successes or failures of the Panthers in 2017-18 and would be unlikely to make much of an impact if they were to be re-signed. Connor Brickley is the most notable name, as he recorded 12 points in 44 games on the team’s fourth line. However, Brickley spent no additional time in the AHL, simply watching from the press box for the much of the season. The 26-year-old forward was a 2010 second-round pick, but seems to have developed into a checking winger with limited offensive upside, the exact type of player that is easy to replace. The loss of fellow 26-year-old forwards Chase Balisy (8 games) and Alexandre Grenier (0 games) would mean even less. Third-string goalie Harri Sateri, 28, returned from Europe to play for the Panthers this year and performed well enough in nine appearances, but with two high-end veteran goalies in the mix, Florida hardly needs to stress over their AHL starter. Young Sam Montembeault will likely be just fine if Sateri is not re-signed.
UFAs: Connor Brickley, Chase Balisy, Alexandre Grenier, Harri Sateri
Projected Cap Space: The trade-off of having no unrestricted free agents to worry about is that you don’t have much salary coming off the books either. When you have your top five forwards, your top four defenseman, and two starting-caliber goalies locked up long-term, things can get expensive. The Florida Panthers got off to a slow start last season and narrowly missed the playoffs, but don’t be fooled: this is a solid team without a ton of holes and their cap situation reflects that. The cap ceiling is expected to rise this off-season to somewhere between $78-$82MM. At the midpoint of $80MM, the Cats will have around $14MM in space to work with. While that is a decent amount, it still puts the team in the bottom third of the league in terms of flexibility.
Assume that McCann gets a substantial pay increase and Vatrano and potentially one or both of Petrovic and Weegar get a fair amount in their new contracts, and the Panthers will likely be operating the free agency market with around $8-$9MM or so in space. Is that enough to add the top-six forward that they desperately want and need? Probably, but they would strapped for cap space after that. Expect Florida to be players on the trade market this summer as a result.
Free Agent Focus: Colorado Avalanche
Free agency is now a little less than a month away from opening up and there are quite a few prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign. Here is a breakdown of Colorado’s free agent situation.
Key Restricted Free Agents: F Matthew Nieto — The 25-year-old, who was picked up off of waivers from the San Jose Sharks has found a home in Colorado after the team rewarded him a year ago with a $1MM contract as a restricted free agent, posting a career high in goals with 15 and forcing his way to some second-line action. Primarily used as a fourth-line defensive option, Nieto has started to show his potential.
One key to Nieto’s success has been getting regular playing time. After playing in a career-low 59 games between two teams last year, he got into 74 games and averaged almost 15 minutes a game. Now with his game improving and the potential to earn a second or third-line role with the team next year, Nieto looks to get a raise from his deal a year ago.
D Patrik Nemeth — After years of not being able to find a full-time role with the Dallas Stars, Nemeth, like Nieto, seems to have found a home with the Avalanche. The 26-year-old blueliner was claimed off waivers at the beginning of the season and immediately made an impact on the Avalanche’s defense. Often teamed with Tyson Barrie on the first line, Nemeth has developed into a solid shutdown defender, although he doesn’t provide much offense (3 goals, 15 points in 68 games). After signing at $945K last season, Nemeth should get himself a significant raise as well.
Other RFA’s: D Mason Geersten, F Felix Girard, D Jesse Graham, D Ryan Graves, G Spencer Martin, F Reid Petryk, D Duncan Siemens, F Nail Yakupov.
Key Unrestricted Free Agents: G Jonathan Bernier — The Avalanche goaltending combination of Semyon Varlamov and Bernier was just OK, but the combination was good enough to vault the team to the playoff for the first time in years. Bernier, who finished the season with a 19-13-3 record with a 2.85 GAA and a .913 save percentage in 37 starts, had moments where he dazzled, including a stretch of nine consecutive wins between Dec. 31 and Jan. 22. Due to a Varlamov injury, Bernier was forced to start in all playoff games and struggled against a good Nashville team, allowing 14 goals in four games as well as being pulled once.
The team must decide whether Bernier is the answer to their goaltending problems as the team needs a backup who can fill in long-term for the injury-prone Varlamov. The team could opt to look at a Carter Hutton, but that might cost the team too much, while the team’s top goaltending prospects are still a year or two away, although the team could turn to streaky UFA Andrew Hammond, who performed well in the playoffs against Nashville in three appearances.
F Blake Comeau — The 32-year-old veteran continues to produce in a bottom-line role for the Avalanche and after another solid season which puts him at 13 goals and 34 points, Comeau is another key veteran who provides a young Colorado team with that leadership the team needs. He has had quite an effect on players like Nieto and J.T. Compher and after finishing up a three-year, $7.2MM deal at $2.4MM AAV, he may want a similar deal to finish out his career.
Other UFA’s: G Joe Cannata, F Joe Colborne, F Rocco Grimaldi, G Andrew Hammond, F Trent Vogelhuber.
Projected Cap Space: With more than $22MM in cap space to work with, depending where the upper limit lands. That should give the team the possibility of going after a free agent or two, but with the team still developing its team through youth, Colorado hasn’t been a major talking point, yet anyway, for unrestricted free agents. However, the idea of the team going after James van Riemsdyk and placing him next to Nathan MacKinnon wouldn’t be a bad look either.
Regardless, the team also must use some of that cap space toward possible extension as the team may want to lock up promising star Mikko Rantanen as soon as possible, which he can do on July 1.
Free Agent Focus: St. Louis Blues
Free agency is now a little less than a month away from opening up and there are quite a few prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign. Here is a breakdown of St. Louis’ free agent situation.
Key Restricted Free Agents: F Robby Fabbri – Things haven’t gone smoothly for Fabbri over the past few years, as he’s faced multiple injuries that have robbed him of all but 51 games since the end of the 2015-16 season. After scoring 18 goals and 37 points as a rookie, and starting his sophomore season on an even better pace, the Blues had big plans for their 2014 first-round pick.
Now, after two straight major knee surgeries and more than a year away from NHL action, it’s not clear where he sits in their future. It was obvious that if he was healthy he could help the team offensively, but negotiations this summer are not leaning in his favor. A short-term deal seems likely for a player that is both an injury risk and hopes to prove himself again in 2018-19.
D Joel Edmundson – The 2011 second-round pick has turned into quite the player for the Blues, and found himself logging more than 20 minutes a night this season while they dealt with injuries to Jay Bouwmeester and inconsistent play from Carl Gunnarsson and Robert Bortuzzo. The Blues have young Vince Dunn expected to make an even bigger contribution next season, but Edmundson could take another step forward as he enters his mid-twenties.
The 24-year old defenseman is coming off a two-year $2.1MM contract, and should earn more than that in just a single year on his next deal. If St. Louis believes he can be a core piece of their blue line for the coming years, there could be a long-term deal in order. He’ll turn 25 before July 1st, meaning a two-year contract takes him to unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2020.
Other RFAs: F Dmitrij Jaskin, F Oskar Sundqvist, F Nikita Soshnikov, D Jordan Schmaltz, F Justin Selman, F Beau Bennett, F Mackenzie MacEachern, D Thomas Vannelli, G Jordan Binnington, D Petteri Lindbohm
Key Unrestricted Free Agent: G Carter Hutton – The Blues moved out their most intriguing free agent at the deadline when they traded Paul Stastny to Winnipeg, but Hutton could prove to have an even bigger market. The 32-year old goaltender led the league with a .931 save percentage this season among netminders with at least 20 starts, and could be looking for an opportunity to play an even bigger role with a team.
Jake Allen didn’t do much this season to prove that he can handle a full-time starter workload, meaning the Blues will likely make every effort to re-sign Hutton this summer. For a player who has never earned more than $1.13MM in a single season though, you can bet he’s intrigued by the opportunity free agency presents.
Other UFAs: F Scottie Upshall, F Kyle Brodziak, F Wade Megan
Projected Cap Space: The Blues, like many teams this summer have plenty of room to work with under the cap. With Stastny and others coming off the books they’ll have somewhere around $18MM in cap space depending on where the upper limit lands and could be big players in the market.
The team has recently admitted that they’re on the lookout for an upgrade at center, and many have speculated that they could enter the John Tavares sweepstakes should the superstar center reach unrestricted free agency. With plenty of young talent coming through the system on cheap contracts, landing a big fish like Tavares is a reasonable target for GM Doug Armstrong to aim at—whether he’ll get there is a different story.
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