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Expansion Primer 2021

Expansion Primer: Edmonton Oilers

at CDT | by 5 Comments

Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

Back in 2017, the Oilers lost a young defenseman to Vegas in expansion in Griffin Reinhart.  The fact they lost him wasn’t a big deal – he only played one game for the Oilers in 2016-17 and never played a game for the Golden Knights; he played in Germany this season – but it provided a harsh reminder of what they gave up to get him in 2015 first and second-round picks.  (The first-rounder became Mathew Barzal and the second-rounder turned into Mitchell Stephens.)  This time around, they may very find themselves losing a young defenseman once again.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Josh Archibald, Tyler Benson, Leon Draisaitl, Seth Griffith, Dominik Kahun, Zack Kassian, Jujhar Khaira, Cooper Marody, Connor McDavid, James Neal, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jesse Puljujarvi, Devin Shore, Anton Slepyshev, Kyle Turris, Bogdan Yakimov, Kailer Yamamoto

Defense:
Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones, Oscar Klefbom, William Lagesson, Darnell Nurse, Kris Russell

Goalies:
Mikko Koskinen, Alex Stalock, Stuart Skinner, Dylan Wells

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

D Tyson Barrie, F Alex Chiasson, F Tyler Ennis, D Slater Koekkoek, D Dmitry Kulikov, D Adam Larsson, G Mike Smith

Notable Exemptions

D Evan Bouchard, D Philip Broberg, F Ryan McLeod, D Dmitri Samorukov

Key Decisions

The first key decision was made earlier this week when they re-signed Nugent-Hopkins.  Had they not done so, it was possible that they could have gone with the eight-skater route, allowing them to protect an extra defenseman.  That won’t be the case now as he joins McDavid, Draisaitl, Yamamoto, and Puljujarvi as sure-fire protectees.

There are quite a few candidates for those last two spots.  A year ago, it felt like Kassian was going to be in that guaranteed protected list.  He had just signed a four-year deal and was coming off a career year offensively; it felt like he was finally becoming the type of power forward that he was expected to when he was a first-round pick in 2009.  Then 2020-21 happened.  He had two significant injuries that cost him half the season and when he was in the lineup, he wasn’t particularly productive as he managed just two goals in 27 games.  His contract has gone from market value to an overpayment in a hurry and as a result, he could very well be left exposed even though when he’s on his game, he can be a difference-maker for the Oilers.

Archibald has become more of what they were hoping for from Kassian – a physical forward that can move up and down the lineup where needed and chip in with a timely goal here or there.  His scoring total dipped to just seven this season after a dozen in each of the previous two years but he’s the type of versatile player they’ll likely opt to keep around.

In terms of their other veterans, Khaira is a capable checker but a $1.3MM qualifying offer makes him a possible non-tender candidate as in this market, that’s a bit much for a fourth liner.  That uncertainty makes it difficult to think he’ll be protected.  Turris, Neal, and Shore cleared waivers and spent frequent time as healthy scratches.  It’s safe to say they’ll be exposed as well.  Kahun had a tough year after two straight years of more than 30 points which has him in the possible non-tender category as well.  If they agree on a new low-cost deal early, it could earn him a protected slot but it’s not a guarantee.

That leaves Benson, a player with seven career NHL games under his belt with none of them coming this season.  (This year, he had 36 points in 36 games with AHL Bakersfield.)  He’s now waiver-eligible and seemingly on the cusp of a roster spot.  Even if he winds up being the odd man out in training camp, he still has more upside than several of the veterans that are vying for one of the last two protected slots.

On the back end, there are two safe bets to be protected.  Nurse has become their number one defenseman while Bear’s tough season is overshadowed by a strong 2019-20 campaign.  His potential is high enough that he’ll be kept away from the Kraken.

Larsson is a pending UFA but there is mutual interest in getting a new deal in place before he hits the market.  If that was to happen in the next couple of weeks, he’d get the third spot.

Assuming that doesn’t happen (or they wait to announce until after the draft), it would appear that two young blueliners – Jones and Lagesson – will be in the mix for the final slot.  Jones’ best showing came in his rookie year in 2018-19 and he hasn’t been able to lock down a full-time spot since then.  Of the two, he has a bit more offensive upside than Lagesson, who is more of a stay-at-home defender.  Lagesson’s a year older (25 vs 24 for Jones) and doesn’t have as much NHL experience (27 games vs 93 for Jones).  Jones would appear to have the slight edge out of the two.

If Klefbom was healthy, he’d be a guaranteed protectee.  However, he missed all of this season after shoulder surgery and it doesn’t sound like he’ll be ready to start next year either.  Could Seattle pick him in the hopes of him returning to health and becoming a possible trade asset down the road?  Perhaps but that’s an expensive gamble with $9.669MM still owed in salary in the final two years of his deal.  Russell was extended during the season to meet one of the exposure criteria and nothing has changed on that front.

Unlike most teams, Edmonton’s protected spot between the pipes is uncertain.  It’s safe to say it won’t be Koskinen who may very well be bought out this month.  Stalock was claimed off waivers during the season and is signed for cheap but he didn’t play at all.  Are they prepared to make him the full-time backup next year?  If so, he could get this slot but if not, keeping a youngster makes more sense.

That should be Skinner.  He struggled in his lone NHL appearance this season but was much better with Bakersfield, posting a 2.38 GAA with a .912 SV% in 31 games.  He’s still waiver-exempt and if made available, could be intriguing to Seattle in terms of having another goalie in the system.  Wells struggled in both the AHL and ECHL this season so it’s safe to say he won’t be protected.

Having said that, if they come to terms on a new deal with Smith between now and the draft, he’ll get the protected spot.

Projected Protection List

F Josh Archibald
F Tyler Benson
F Connor McDavid
F Leon Draisaitl
F Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
F Jesse Puljujarvi
F Kailer Yamamoto

D Ethan Bear
D Caleb Jones
D Darnell Nurse

G Stuart Skinner

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (4): Zack Kassian, James Neal, Devin Shore, Kyle Turris
Defensemen (2): Oscar Klefbom, Kris Russell

The Oilers are well-positioned as things stand.  If Seattle likes one of Khaira or Kahun, it’s possible one of the pending RFAs gets selected.  Otherwise, Lagesson could be the target as a young defender with potentially a little bit of trade value or someone that can hold down the seventh or eighth spot on the back end.  Edmonton appears to be set to be one of the teams that won’t be impacted all that much when they lose a player to the Kraken.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Expansion Primer: Florida Panthers

at CDT | by 6 Comments

Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

One of the mistakes that is brought up most often in regards to the Vegas expansion draft was the one made in Florida, when the Panthers sent Reilly Smith to the Golden Knights to make sure they picked Jonathan Marchessault. That’s right, the Panthers traded away one top-six player just to ensure that they would lose another and provided the Golden Knights with two-thirds of a first line in the process. The idea was to protect players like Alexander Petrovic and Mark Pysyk, certainly not a decision that is looked back on kindly. This time, new GM Bill Zito surely won’t make the same mistake.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau (NMC), Patric Hornqvist, Frank Vatrano, Noel Acciari, Carter Verhaeghe, Mason Marchment, Ryan Lomberg, Patrick Bajkov, Aleksi Saarela, Anthony Duclair, Juho Lammikko, Brad Morrison, Lucas Wallmark, Sam Bennett

Defense:

Aaron Ekblad, Keith Yandle (NMC), Anton Stralman, MacKenzie Weegar, Markus Nutivaara, Radko Gudas, Kevin Connauton, Noah Juulsen, Gustav Forsling, Lucas Carlsson

Goalies:

Sergei Bobrovsky (NMC), Sam Montembeault

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

F Alexander Wennberg, D Brandon Montour, G Chris Driedger

Notable Exemptions

F Anton Lundell, F Grigori Denisenko, F Eetu Luostarinen, F Owen Tippett, F Nikita Gusev (UFA), G Spencer Knight

Key Decisions

Interestingly, the Panthers once again are faced with the decision on whether or not to use the standard seven forwards/three defenseman protection strategy. This time, it’s hard to justify going the eight-skater route, even if Yandle’s no-movement clause is going to force them to expose a valuable player from the blueline. There is just too much talent up front, and there’s no way they risk losing another Marchessault.

Things kick off as expected, with Huberdeau and Barkov leading the way. One has a no-move, but there’s no way either one would ever be exposed to Seattle. Beyond that though, things get a little more complicated. Verhaeghe broke out this season for 18 goals and 36 points in 43 games and will almost certainly earn protection, while trade-deadline acquisition Bennett seemed revitalized after bringing his talents to Sunrise. That’s four spots used up already, with the group of Hornqvist, Vatrano, Marchment, Acciari, and Duclair still to come. At least two of those players are going to be left unprotected, and it’s not at all clear which ones.

Hornqvist is the sort of in-your-face player that the Panthers targeted last summer, trying to add a little more bite to the lineup to compete in the playoffs. He had a good season too, scoring 32 points in 44 games, but is now 34 and costs $5.3MM in each of the next two seasons. He’s exactly the type of situation where a team might not want to lose him, yet wouldn’t be crushed if he were taken, meaning he may well be left unprotected by the Panthers.

Vatrano would have been an easy choice a few seasons ago, but recent acquisitions have dropped him further and further down the lineup. He averaged fewer than 12 minutes a night in the playoffs this season and may be deemed expendable despite scoring 18 goals in the regular season.

Marchment and Acciari are both still depth players, but the former showed an ability to move up and down the lineup while the latter is just a year removed from scoring 20 goals as a depth center. There’s a case for either one, including the fact that Marchment will cost just $800K this season and had a pair of goals in the team’s first-round exit.

Then there is Duclair, who has shown an ability to line up beside star players in the past and has excellent offensive upside. The problem is that he doesn’t have a contract yet as a restricted free agent, and could even be a non-tender candidate if the team doesn’t want to deal with a potential arbitration award. The 25-year-old Duclair also saw his role drop dramatically by the playoffs, where he failed to register a single point while averaging just over 12 minutes a night.

While there is a case to be made for several forwards, the defensive group seems much more straightforward, if only because of Yandle’s no-movement clause. Unless he agrees to waive it, the team will have to protect Ekblad and Weegar as the two integral cogs of their back end. The 27-year-old Weegar may still not be getting the recognition he deserves from some hockey fans, but there’s a reason why he ended up finishing eighth in Norris Trophy voting after an outstanding season. That means the Panthers will be exposing players like Gudas and Nutivaara, while not being able to protect restricted free agent Forsling either, who leapfrogged those veterans this season.

In goal, the Panthers will be forced to protect Bobrovsky, even if they probably would rather just re-sign Driedger and roll him out alongside Knight next season. There’s still five years and $50MM left on Bobrovsky’s deal, which would actually likely scare off Seattle anyway, but there’s really no need to ask him to waive the no-movement clause at this point.

Projected Protection List

F Aleksander Barkov
F Jonathan Huberdeau
F Patric Hornqvist
F Carter Verhaeghe
F Sam Bennett
F Frank Vatrano
F Anthony Duclair

D Aaron Ekblad
D Keith Yandle
D MacKenzie Weegar

G Sergei Bobrovsky

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (3): Noel Acciari, Mason Marchment, Ryan Lomberg
Defensemen (3): Anton Stralman, Markus Nutivaara, Radko Gudas

The Panthers have more flexibility than most when it comes to the exposure requirements, with so many players under contract for next season. Even if Acciari or Marchment are protected, names like Hornqvist or Vatrano would also meet the requirements upfront. On the back end, even if they can convince Yandle to waive his no-move, the last protection slot would likely be used on Forsling, who doesn’t qualify for the requirement anyway. Basically, these shouldn’t be an issue for Florida no matter what they decide to do.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Expansion Primer: Los Angeles Kings

at CDT | by 6 Comments

Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

The Los Angeles Kings have come a long way since the last Expansion Draft… a long way in the wrong direction. After winning Stanley Cups in 2012 and 2014 and topping 100 points in 2016, the Kings were still clinging to their hopes of remaining contenders when the Vegas Golden Knights made their expansion selections in 2017. It was arguably at that point that things began to unravel for the franchise. Even with four defensemen protected, all of whom were well worth it at the time but only one of whom remains on the team now, Vegas still stole from the blue line with the reliable Brayden McNabb. McNabb has been a fixture for the Knights ever since; meanwhile, L.A. has watched as protected players Tanner Pearson, Jake Muzzin, Tyler Toffoli, Alec Martinez, Derek Forbort, and Jeff Carter all departed.

After years in the basement of the league, the Kings are now on their way back to relevance, fueled by a few holdover veterans, a couple new core players, and a treasure trove of talented youth. Their Cup days may be well behind them, but there are brighter days ahead – and expansion will not slow them down. L.A.’s current roster has so few established assets and is so heavy in exempt young players, the Kings face little risk in the impending draft. By their recent standards, they will lose a good player and maybe even a young player, but by league standards they should be one of the teams least impacted. This is not a roster where the Seattle Kraken will be able to find their own McNabb.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Lias Andersson, Andreas Athanasiou, Dustin Brown, Michael Eyssimont, Martin Frk, Carl Grundstrom, Alex Iafallo, Boko Imama, Adrian Kempe, Anze Kopitar, Brendan Lemieux, Blake Lizotte, Matt Luff, Trevor Moore, Drake Rymsha, Austin Wagner

Defense:
Drew Doughty (NMC), Kale Clague, Olli Maatta, Kurtis MacDermid, Jacob Moverare, Matt Roy, Austin Strand, Sean Walker

Goalies:
Jonathan Quick, Calvin Petersen

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

None

Notable Exemptions

D Michael Anderson, F Jaret Anderson-Dolan, D Tobias Bjornfot, F Quinton Byfield, F Samuel Fagemo, F Arthur Kaliyev, F Rasmus Kupari, F Tyler Madden, D Markus Phillips, F Vladimir Tkachyov, F Akil Thomas, F Alex Turcotte, F Gabriel Vilardi

Key Decisions

The most difficult question for the Kings as they face expansion is the first one: what is their overall approach? A team that is currently straddling the line between rebuild and playoff pursuit. L.A. is loaded with talented prospects and certainly values their youth, but they are also loaded with cap space and have sworn to add more veteran talent this off-season. When making decisions on who to protect and who to expose, they need to decide what the next step for the franchise is. Will they risk established veterans, knowing it would be a step back in their return to relevance? Are they comfortable enough in their deep stable of prospect to expose unproven young players instead?

The x-factor in this whole conversation is young defenseman Clague, as the Kings’ decision on him will also determine whether they protect three defensemen and seven forwards or eight skaters, including Clague as defenseman No. 4? A well-regarded prospect, Clague has been given opportunities in L.A. but has little to show for it. The 23-year-old was a second-round pick in 2016 and was heralded as a skilled, puck-moving defenseman, but so far that ability has not appeared at the NHL level. Could Clague blossom in Seattle if the Kings let him go? Sure. However, they have numerous other impressive defense prospects in the system to replace him. Protecting Clague also comes at a steep cost: three forward slots. If Clague is not exposed, several other young forwards are.

Assume then that Clague is exposed as the Kings go with three defenseman: icon Doughty and affordable top-four defenders Roy and Walker. Maatta brought needed veteran presence and stability to L.A. this year and MacDermind is an impressive physical specimen, but neither is worth protecting over Clague, nevertheless three forwards.

Up front, the locks are simple. Star center Kopitar, the recently-extended Iafallo, and young standout Kempe are all safe. Beyond that, the final four names could be anyone from a long list (which is why protecting Clague remains a possibility however unlikely.) The first decision will be the most polarizing, as it pertains to the up-and-down Brown. A career King, Brown started to decline even before the last Expansion Draft and was left exposed as L.A. hoped they might be rid of his long-term contract. However, in the years since he has returned to form, playing at a 50+ point full-season pace this year for the third time in four seasons. Brown’s contract is also down to just one year, no longer a detriment to the team. If there were only four forwards to protect, this becomes a more difficult decision, but with seven spots it is likely that Brown stays a King for at least one more season, even if not all fans will be happy about it. His experience and leadership is invaluable to the young team and he would be an easy target for Seattle if exposed.

The remaining three forward spots are a more interesting debate. Athanasiou and Moore, though older than some of the other candidates, are still relatively young and entering the primes of their careers. Each played well in his first season in Los Angeles, recording a matching 23 points to tie for fifth in scoring among Kings forwards. With that said, both are restricted free agents as well and contract negotiations could come into play. However, neither player meets the exposure requirements to fill the quota and are superior players to the other candidates, making them useless to expose other than to distract the Kraken from other options.

The Kings do have four forwards that meet the exposure criteria, two of whom must be protected. Grundstrom, Lizotte, Wagner, and mid-season trade addition Lemieux all satisfy the exposure requirements, but which two should fill that position? There is some reason to believe that Lizotte will. The undersized forward earned a suspiciously quick extension after a down year, which could mean that the Kings had ulterior motives. There is also something to be said for the Kings adding Lemieux when the team already had physical bottom-six wingers in Grudstrom and Wagner. Lemieux also may have been brought in for expansions purposes. And yet, Wagner is probably the least valuable player of the group and likely to be exposed.

Grundstrom stands out as an outlier. The youngest of the group, Grundstrom was a 2016 second-rounder taken just six spots behind Clague. A physical forward with offensive touch, Grundstrom made the most of limited ice time in just 47 games to lead this group of four in scoring, finish among the top nine forwards in goals and points, and lead the team in hits. Grudnstrom is the favorite to be protected.

Of course, there is one more forward to consider and that is impending RFA Andersson. The 2017 No. 7 overall pick came to L.A. after struggling in New York and unfortunately found more of the same. He recorded just six points in 23 games, matching a career high but still falling short of expectations. A one-dimensional offensive player, Andersson is a difficult young asset to hand starts and ice time. Yet, his draft stock implies immense potential and at 22 years old he could still turn into a star elsewhere. Can the Kings risk giving him up?

In net, the decision is much easier than elsewhere on the roster. Despite his longevity and career achievements, Quick is currently just an overpaid backup. His play has actually been improving and L.A. may not be as desperate to move his contract as they once were, but there is no question that young Peterson is the current and future starter and will be protected.

Projected Protection List

F Andreas Athanasiou
F Dustin Brown
F Carl Grundstrom
F Alex Iafallo
F Adrian Kempe
F Anze Kopitar
F Trevor Moore

D Drew Doughty (NMC)
D Matt Roy 
D Sean Walker

G Calvin Petersen

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (3): Brendan Lemieux, Blake Lizotte, Austin Wagner

Defensemen (2): Olli Maatta, Kurtis MacDermid

At the end of the day, the Kings need to focus on themselves and what they know they have rather than what could be. Could a Clague or Andersson be selected by Seattle and become a great player? Sure. Could they also go to Seattle and not even be able to crack the roster, ending up back in L.A. or elsewhere on waivers? Of course. What the Kings know to be true is that they have the means to protect all of their main contributors from this past year, when the team took a major step forward, and that they have arguably the deepest and most talented pipeline in the NHL to replace any departing young player.

Whether it is taking a risk on a Clague or Andersson, adding a role player like Lemieux, Wagner, MacDermid, or Strand or swinging for the fences and hoping for a resurgence from Quick or Maatta, the Kraken have options. Their decision may be even harder than L.A.’s, who should feel confident moving forward without whoever Seattle lands on.

Expansion Primer: Minnesota Wild

at CDT | by 3 Comments

Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

In 2017, the Minnesota Wild protected three defensemen in the Expansion Draft: Jonas Brodin, Jared Spurgeon, and Ryan Suter. This left young standout defenseman Matt Dumba exposed (along with a number of other significant players). Yet, Dumba did not go to the Vegas Golden Knights. Why? Because Minnesota paid the price to keep him safe. Alongside selection Erik Haula, Minnesota also sent impressive young forward Alex Tuch to Vegas. The side deal kept their other players protected, but the Wild have watched as Tuch has blossomed into the power forward they foresaw when selecting him in the first round in 2014. It was a heavy price to pay.

This time around, Brodin, Spurgeon, and Suter will again need to be protected. They are each still top-four defensemen for Minnesota and now they all hold a No-Movement Clause as well, meaning that unless they waive that clause they are required to be protected. Again, this could potentially leave Dumba exposed, a scenario that has put the Wild back in the expansion spotlight more than any other team, seemingly since Seattle was introduced as the future 32nd NHL team. In reality, the Wild cannot and will not give the dynamic defender away for free, so they must find out how to protect Dumba within the confines of their current protection possibilities or else he will be traded.

The goal for the team this year is to find a way within the constructs of the expansion draft rules to mitigate the impact of their expansion loss, rather than forfeit another top prospect or pick in a side deal. With the Dumba situation driving their decisions, a deep forward corps to consider, and a tough question in net, GM Bill Guerin has his work cut out for him. However, the help of one or two veterans could be huge for the Wild in managing to escape this round of expansion without getting too badly hurt.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Zach Parise (NMC), Mats Zuccarello (NMC), Will Bitten, Joel Eriksson Ek, Kevin Fiala, Marcus Foligno, Jordan Greenway, Ryan Hartman, Victor Rask, Dmitry Sokolov, Mason Shaw, Nico Sturm

Defense:
Jonas Brodin (NMC), Jared Spurgeon (NMC), Ryan Suter (NMC), Matt Dumba, Brennan Menell, Carson Soucy

Goalies:
Kaapo Kahkonen, Cam Talbot

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

F Nick Bjugstad, F Nick Bonino, D Ian Cole, F Marcus Johansson

Notable Exemptions

D Calen Addison, F Adam Beckman, F Matthew Boldy, F Mitchell Chaffee, F Kirill Kaprizov, D Ryan O’Rourke, F Marco Rossi

Key Decisions

The first and most important question for the Wild is “can anything be done to change the status quo?” If unchanged, Minnesota faces a very difficult task of escaping expansion unharmed. However, if Guerin can convince any of his players with No-Movement Clauses to waive or can trade one of his otherwise-exposed players for picks and exempt prospects, that would change the calculus of the situation.

If you assume that the team must move ahead as constituted, it locks the Wild into an eight-skater scheme. As noted, Dumba is not going to Seattle for free so if he is not traded or another defenseman does not waive his NMC, then Dumba will be protected as the team’s fourth defender. This makes for a very difficult decision at forward. With just two spots available next to Parise and Zuccarello, Minnesota must pick two of three 24-year-old forwards who all finished in the top five in team scoring this season: Fiala, Greenway, and Eriksson Ek. Fiala, 24, is the most proven young scorer on the team, recording three 20-goal seasons and essentially four 40-point seasons in just five NHL seasons. His RFA status and his slow start in the postseason are unlikely to make a difference; Fiala will be protected. There would really be just one spot open at forward.

As for Eriksson Ek versus Greenway, the decision is much tighter. Eriksson Ek is the team’s top center and a great two-way, physical player who made great strides this season. Greenway has been the better, more consistent scorer so far in his young career and has made steady improvement each year. He too is a strong two-way player with elite power forward upside. It is impossible to know which player the team might prefer, but this much is certain: Seattle will not hesitate to scoop up whichever of the pair they must expose.

Assume now that a trade or NMC waiver allows Minnesota to employ a 7-3 protection scheme. In this scenario, decisions remain at forward but carry far less weight. Fiala, Eriksson Ek, and Greenway are all safe alongside Parise and Zuccarello. This leaves two spots left and number of candidates. Following the best per-game scoring season of his career, not to mention his contributions to the checking game and penalty kill, Foligno would likely be a lock. The remaining spot could go to Hartman, who increased his value with his transition to center this season, an area where the Wild lack depth. Hartman already earned an affordable, multi-year extension, as both sides seem happy with the fit. Rask outscored Hartman by one point this season and is a natural center, but his contract value and upcoming expiration both hurt his case. Sturm is developing into a good bottom-six forward, but the collegiate product is the same age as Hartman with a fraction of the pro experience.

Regardless of the protection scheme, there are two constants for the Wild: Soucy will be exposed and only one goalie can be protected. Neither is an easy pill to swallow. Minnesota paid up to keep Soucy when he almost left as a Group 6 free agent and the 26-year-old proved them right by continuing to improve this season. However, with a solid top four that they already have enough problems balancing in expansion, it is hard to imagine a way in which Soucy is protected. It is actually more likely that he could be traded before the draft. In goal, the team must choose between experience and stability or youth and upside. Talbot was brought in as a free agent this season to start for the Wild and he performed very well, especially in the playoffs where he started every game. However, it ended up being much more of a timeshare in the regular season, as young Kahkonen pushed for starts. The 2019-20 AHL Goaltender of the Year had some issues in his first NHL season, but has the makings of a future starter. After such a strong season, would the team mortgage the future in order to keep Talbot in place as their reliable starter? Or is Kahkonen’s potential too hard to ignore?

Projected Protection List

F Joel Eriksson Ek
F Kevin Fiala
F Marcus Foligno
F Jordan Greenway
F Ryan Hartman
F Nico Sturm
F Mats Zuccarello (NMC)

D Jonas Brodin (NMC)
D Matt Dumba 
D Jared Spurgeon (NMC)

G Kaapo Kahkonen

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (2): Zach Parise, Victor Rask

Defensemen (2): Carson Soucy, Ryan Suter

Taking some creative liberties here, the projected protections and exposures are based on the idea that Parise and Suter will take one for the team and waive their No-Movement Clauses for the Expansion Draft. The 36-year-olds (Parise will be 37 next month) are in decline, are paid $7.5MM+, and are under contract through the 2024-25 season, during which they will be 40 years old. There is no chance that the Kraken select Parise and little to no chance they take Suter. Starting a franchise with expensive players in their late thirties is not a feasible plan and Seattle GM Ron Francis is not one to take foolish chances. There is no risk to the team nor the players for Parise and Suter to waive their NMC’s. They’ll do it for the same reason they signed long-term deals with the Wild in the first place: to give their hometown team its best chance to win a Stanley Cup. After a season in which the club reinvented itself into a legitimate contender, the team is closer than ever to that goal and Parise and Suter are unlikely to stand in the way and cost the themselves a valuable teammate.

If this does indeed occur – and reason (plus some rumors) suggest that it will – the Wild are in much better shape with the Expansion Draft than previously thought. Minnesota could still go with an eight-skater scheme to protect Soucy rather than the likes of Foligno, Hartman, and Sturm, but it seems highly unlikely. The big defenseman has upside, but will never be more than a bottom-pair player in Minnesota. He will be an attractive option for Seattle, though. So too will veteran goaltender Talbot. A sturdy netminder who played well in his first season in Minnesota, Talbot would be a tough loss for the Wild but there are potential replacements on the free agent market. It would be far more difficult to replace the youth and upside of Kahkonen. For the Kraken, Talbot could both challenge for a starting role or could be flipped to another team with needs in net. Up front, the 7-3 scheme leaves little to offer Seattle. Rask’s cap hit is not worth his production, plus he’s on an expiring deal. If the Kraken are not enamored with Soucy or Talbot, young prospects Shaw or Bitten could be appealing, but would have to be considered worthy of a roster spot or else would be risked on waivers. They could also opt to negotiate with an impending free agent, with several notable names to choose from. However, Minnesota’s expansion exposure is not quite the guaranteed win for Seattle that it initially seemed.

Expansion Primer: Montreal Canadiens

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Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

Back in 2017, the Canadiens lost Alexei Emelin to Vegas.  Unless they want to risk losing a notable forward this time around, history could repeat itself with Seattle likely to be interested in one of Montreal’s blueliners.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Josh Anderson, Joseph Blandisi, Paul Byron, Laurent Dauphin, Jonathan Drouin, Jake Evans, Brendan Gallagher (NMC), Charles Hudon, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Artturi Lehkonen, Michael Pezzetta, Tyler Toffoli, Lukas Vejdemo

Defense:
Ben Chiarot, Joel Edmundson, Cale Fleury, Brett Kulak, Xavier Ouellet, Jeff Petry (NMC), Shea Weber

Goalies:
Jake Allen, Michael McNiven, Carey Price (NMC)

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

F Joel Armia, F Phillip Danault, F Michael Frolik, D Erik Gustafsson, D Jonathon Merrill, F Corey Perry, F Eric Staal, F Tomas Tatar

Notable Exemptions

F Cole Caufield, F Ryan Poehling, G Cayden Primeau, D Alexander Romanov, F Nick Suzuki, F Jesse Ylonen

Key Decisions

The goaltending one is pretty easy.  Price will be protected and Allen, beginning a cheaper two-year deal next season, will be exposed.  He will certainly be under consideration by the Kraken.

On the back end, Petry’s no-move clause means he’ll be protected and while Weber’s contract could be viewed as enough of a deterrent to leave him exposed, his performance in the playoffs so far makes that unlikely.  It would be difficult for Montreal to leave their captain available.

If they go with the standard 7/3/1 scheme, that only leaves one spot left and a trio of interesting options to choose from.  A few years ago, Chiarot was a role player with Winnipeg and at the time he signed his three-year, $10.5MM deal with the Canadiens, it seemed like quite the overpayment.  Then he played his way onto the top pairing, a spot he maintained for a lot of this year.  He’s the only full-time skater to not record a point so far in the playoffs but he’s also averaging 25:37 per game, just one second behind Weber for the team lead.  Even though that’s not necessarily the ideal role for him, Chiarot would probably be one of Seattle’s better rearguards and with him being on an affordable expiring contract, he’s someone that could yield a notable return if they looked to flip him.

Then there’s Edmundson.  While his four-year, $14MM contract also looked like a small overpayment (especially considering the way the UFA market went), he played quite well with Petry this season and certainly solidified their top-four.  That has continued in the playoffs where he’s up over 23 minutes per game.  All of a sudden, his $3.5MM price tag for three more years could be viewed as appealing.

Kulak also warrants a mention.  His possession stats have generally been well above average but that hasn’t resulted in a lot of playing time, including in their playoff run.  But Seattle appears to be a team that is highly invested in analytics and viewed through those stats, he could be more attractive than Chiarot or Edmundson while basically being half the price.

Up front, there are four safe bets to be protected in Gallagher, Anderson, Toffoli, and Kotkaniemi.  Things get a little trickier from there, however.

The key to Montreal’s expansion strategy is Drouin.  Heading into the season, the thought of leaving him unprotected would have seemed unrealistic.  However, he struggled to score this season, scoring just twice in 44 games, hardly an ideal output from a $5.5MM contract.  He missed the end of the regular season plus all of the playoffs on a personal leave of absence, one that has yielded more questions than answers.  When will he come back?  Will he come back at all?  If he does, will it be with Montreal or will there be a trade request?  With the uncertainty surrounding his situation, his contract (which has two years left), and his struggles this season, Drouin’s trade value is arguably at an all-time low.  Would Seattle take a swing on the potential upside or would the questions scare them off, making it more beneficial to leave him unprotected?  GM Marc Bergevin will have a few more weeks to try to figure out the answers to those questions.

Evans is another potential wild card.  His NHL experience is relatively limited (just 60 career regular season games) but the 25-year-old did well in limited playoff action and is nearing a return.  He’s also signed for another year at the league minimum.  Center depth among unprotected players around the league may not be the greatest so a cheap youngster could interest Seattle GM Ron Francis.  Montreal might want to protect him but they’re a team that has a lot of unsigned players right now; to meet the requirement of two signed skaters with enough games played, he might have to be made available, especially if they don’t want to take the chance of losing Drouin.

Lehkonen is someone whose regular season potentially had him in that iffy zone of being qualified at $2.2MM with arbitration rights.  He’s undoubtedly a strong defensive forward but aside from his rookie season, he hasn’t been much of a goal scorer (although he did get the series-winner against Vegas) and the open market wasn’t kind to those players in the fall.  He has helped his value to the point where he’s probably protected in a 7/3/1 scheme but he could also be a capable checker for the Kraken if they protect the four defensemen.

Projected Protection List

F Josh Anderson
F Brendan Gallagher (NMC)
F Jesperi Kotkaniemi
F Tyler Toffoli

D Ben Chiarot
D Joel Edmundson
D Jeff Petry (NMC)
D Shea Weber

G Carey Price (NMC)

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (3): Paul Byron, Jonathan Drouin, Jake Evans
Defensemen (1): Brett Kulak

There are a few different ways that Francis could go here.  Adding Allen is certainly a safe decision; he isn’t a true number one but can still play 40-45 games and at $2.875MM, he’s on an affordable contract and would be part of the plans beyond 2021-22.  Drouin has the most upside but the highest risk of any of the skaters unprotected.  Lehkonen (who isn’t listed above since he’s a restricted free agent and the above group is only for signed players) would be a viable middle-six forward while Evans and Kulak are more under the radar options but could be picked as well.

For Montreal to switch to a 7/3/1 scheme, they need to get another forward signed.  Giving Perry a new deal and then exposing him with Byron (while protecting Drouin, Lehkonen, and Evans) would meet the exposure requirements but would also run the risk of losing Chiarot or Edmundson.  With the way they’ve played in the playoffs, whichever is left available could very well become the favorite to be selected.  While their mindset is justifiably on the Stanley Cup Final against Tampa Bay, there will need to be some decisions made soon on the expansion front.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Expansion Primer: Nashville Predators

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Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

The last time around, the Nashville Predators protected eight skaters in the Expansion Draft: Viktor Arvidsson, Filip Forsberg, Calle Jarnkrok, Ryan Johansen, Mattias Ekholm, Ryan Ellis, Roman Josi, P.K. Subban,and Pekka Rinne. Look familiar? With seven of those eight players still on the team and at least five of them again locks for protection, the Predators are likely to take the same approach with Seattle as they did with Vegas.

Four years ago, the result was losing a high-priced veteran in James Neal. However, Neal was coming off consecutive strong seasons in Nashville and the Golden Knights did not hesitate to select the scoring forward. If the Predators want the Kraken to also take a pricey player, they may have to help it along. There are other more attractive and much more affordable options on the roster this time.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Viktor Arvidsson, Nick Cousins, Matt Duchene, Filip Forsberg, Rocco Grimaldi, Calle Jarnkrok, Tanner Jeannot, Ryan Johansen, Luke Kunin, Michael McCarron, Rem Pitlick, Anthony Richard, Colton Sissons, Yakov Trenin

Defense:
Frederic Allard, Matt Benning, Mark Borowiecki, Alexandre Carrier, Mattias Ekholm, Ryan Ellis, Dante Fabbro, Ben Harpur, Josh Healey, Roman Josi

Goalies:
Connor Ingram, Juuse Saros

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

F Mikael Granlund, D Erik Gudbranson, F Erik Haula, F Brad Richardson

Notable Exemptions

F Egor Afansyev, G Yaroslav Askarov, D Jeremy Davies, D David Farrance, F Patrick Harper, F Thomas Novak, F Mathieu Olivier, F Eeli Tolvanen, F Phil Tomasino

Key Decisions

The Predators have no shortage of difficult decisions to make, but it beats the position they were in earlier this season. Off to a horrific start to the 2020-21 season and looking ahead to the Expansion Draft, Nashville had almost everyone on the trade block so that they could protect what few core players and young assets they valued in expansion. Chief among them was Ekholm, whose contract expires at the end of next season. Rather than protect four defensemen – Ekholm, fellow top defenders Josi and Ellis, and young standout Fabbro – and expose a number of forwards, the team was entertaining trading Ekholm so that they could use a 7-3 protection scheme. However, as their season turned around and Ekholm trade talks grew quiet, that possibility slipped away. Whether they plan to re-sign Ekholm or not, the Predators are not giving away any of those four defensemen for free, locking them in to the eight-skater scheme once again.

With their defensive protections locked in, as well as in goal with new starter Saros taking over for free agent and potential retiree Rinne, all of the questions for Nashville are at forward – and there are plenty. The two sure things are Forsberg and Arvidsson. Forsberg is the undisputed best forward on the team and Arvidsson, despite a down year, still has too much value to give up for free and has a team-friendly contract. Beyond that pair, GM David Poile could go in any number of directions with his final two spots. The safe guess for at least one spot though is young winger Kunin. Acquired just last summer, Kunin is young and full of potential. A potential long-term top-six forward in Nashville, Kunin is unlikely to be exposed unless the Predators see something in him that causes them doubt in his upside.

So it could be down to just one forward slot, with at least five names in contention – the downside of the eight-skater protection scheme. The big names are Johansen and Duchene, the Predators’ $8MM centers. The problem is that names is all they are right now; neither has produced up to the expectations of their pedigree in several years. Nashville seems likely to expose both in hopes that Seattle likes one of them enough to take a massive amount of cap off their payroll, which they could better use elsewhere. If one of them was to be protected, it would likely be Johansen who has more history with the team and plays a more complete game, even when he isn’t producing.

With Johansen and Duchene likely crossed off the list, that leaves long-time middle-six forwards Grimaldi, Jarnkrok, and Sissons. Jarnkrok may seem like the obvious choice; he finished second among Nashville forwards in scoring this season while Sissons and Grimaldi were tenth and eleventh, respectively. Jarnkrok also led all forwards in plus/minus and was a key cog in the power play. Jarnkrok was also protected four years ago and is still on the same bargain, $2MM AAV contract he was then. Contracts could be the key here, though. Poile has had an extraordinary ability in his career to sign players to affordable, long-term contracts, such as Jarnkrok. However, Jarnkrok is entering the final season of his long-term deal, while Sissons still has four seasons left at $2.86MM per year. Nashville’s top penalty killing forward and top face-off man is also quietly a good complementary scorer as well, scoring at close to a 30-point 82-game pace over the past four seasons. If Sissons is exposed, the Kraken have plenty of reasons to select him. Would Poile risk letting another team, a Western Conference rival at that, benefit from his negotiating handiwork or will he instead protect Sissons and his affordable contract?

If Nashville was protecting seven forwards, a strong case could be made for 24-year-old Pitlick. One lone NHL game after leaving college in 2019 is the only reason Pitlick is eligible for the Expansion Draft and the team hopes it doesn’t come back to bite them. A star at the University of Minnesota who has been stellar in the AHL through two pro seasons and earned some NHL games this season, Pitlick looks like a future top-nine forward, but the Predators don’t have the luxury of protecting potential with only four forward slots.

Projected Protection List

F Viktor Arvidsson
F Filip Forsberg
F Luke Kunin
F Colton Sissons

D Mattias Ekholm
D Ryan Ellis
D Dante Fabbro
D Roman Josi

G Juuse Saros

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (6): Nick Cousins, Matt Duchene, Rocco Grimaldi, Ryan Johansen, Calle Jarnkrok, Yakov Trenin

Defensemen (2): Matt Benning, Mark Borowiecki

When the Predators signed Benning and Borowiecki to two-year deals last summer, it was with expansion in mind. They knew the pair were serviceable blue liners who could meet exposure requirements with bottom-pair time but also were not flashy enough for Seattle to select. In fact, if the Kraken do take a defenseman it is likely to be Carrier or Allard instead. In net, Ingram is a solid prospect who had a tremendous 2019-20 season, but his poor performance this year and his lack of waiver exemption likely makes him a non-option for Seattle.

Again, the value for the Kraken in likely to come at forward with so many names exposed. Jarnkrok, if exposed, would be affordable top-six scoring right off the bat for the new team. However, the expiring contracts for he, Grimaldi, and Cousins hurt all of their stocks. Pitlick or Trenin would be interesting project picks for Seattle, younger players who have shown flashes of great ability.

However, all eyes will be on Johansen and Duchene – and Kraken GM Ron Francis knows it. Even if he likes one of the two prime centers and even acknowledging that Seattle needs to hit $48.9MM and an $8MM salary would help, Francis also knows that the Predators have plenty of incentive to see either leave. Seattle could ask for an additional player, prospect, or pick in order to take Johansen or Duchene and Nashville will almost certainly comply. Johansen, a Vancouver native who played his junior hockey in Portland, is familiar with the area and could be an immediate fan favorite, the team’s top line center, and a captain candidate, especially if he can return to form. If he also came with another attractive asset or two, it would be a popular move by the team.

Expansion Primer: New Jersey Devils

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Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

The last time the New Jersey Devils went through an expansion draft, they were coming off a terrible season where they finished last in the Metropolitan Divison and didn’t have a ton of assets to worry about losing. The team decided to go with the eight-skater protection strategy in order to protect defenseman Mirco Mueller, and ended up losing Jon Merrill. It ended up being the wrong choice, but both were never really impact defensemen before or after the expansion draft. This year things are relatively similar, with the Devils being at risk of losing a player who may continue on in the NHL but isn’t likely to win any awards.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Nico Hischier, Andreas Johnsson, Jesper Bratt, Miles Wood, Pavel Zacha, Nathan Bastian, Nicholas Merkley, Brandon Gignac, A.J. Greer, Yegor Sharangovich, Michael McLeod, Marian Studenic, Janne Kuokkanen

Defense:

P.K. Subban, Damon Severson, Will Butcher, David Quenneville, Colby Sissons, Colton White, Jonas Siegenthaler

Goalies:

Mackenzie Blackwood, Evan Cormier

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

D Ryan Murray, D Connor Carrick, G Aaron Dell

Notable Exemptions

F Jack Hughes, F Jesper Boqvist, F Tyce Thompson, D Ty Smith, D Kevin Bahl

Key Decisions

The biggest difference between then and now for the Devils is the number of interesting young forwards that could require protection. The team used only four spots upfront in 2017 but are almost certainly going to use the seven forward-three defenseman protection strategy this time around. Hischier, Bratt, and Zacha, who have grown and developed together the last few seasons are no-brainers. Sharangovich and Kuokkanen may not have been protected a year ago, but both became regular NHL options this season. That already fills five of the seven spots, meaning only two more of the group that includes Wood, McLeod, Johnsson, Bastian, and Merkley can be kept away from Seattle.

It would have been easy to choose Johnsson before he became a ghost this season, disappearing completely after breaking out in Toronto. The 26-year-old winger had just 11 points in 50 games for New Jersey but carries a cap hit of $3.4MM through 2022-23. It very well could bite the Devils if he heads to Seattle and rediscovers his game, but at this point, he isn’t really deserving of a protection spot.

Wood, 25, has never shown he can create much offense for his linemates, but it’s hard to argue with 17 goals in 55 games. The speedy forward has continued to cash in on his opportunities and brings an incredible amount of energy to the rink every night. He is likely going to be one of the two extra spots, though there at least has to be some consideration of the others. McLeod, Bastian, Merkley, and even Studenic are all still just finding their way at the NHL level but any one of them could take a step forward next season. There is a reason why the first three were all taken with high draft picks and New Jersey could decide to try to block Seattle from snatching up an unpolished gem.

On defense, the team almost has an extra protection slot, given how poorly Subban performed this season. His $9MM cap hit will likely scare off the Kraken but even if it doesn’t, removing him from the Devils lineup shouldn’t be too much of a negative for a team that is obviously trying to go with a young group. There’s not really any reason to protect Subban, meaning the Devils could even pursue a trade to help out a team that is overloaded.

In fact, Butcher is in a similar situation, even if his contract isn’t nearly as expensive. The 26-year-old has basically played himself out of the lineup in New Jersey, serving as a healthy scratch many times this year. He recorded just 11 points in 23 games and though his minutes were back up by May, his place in the future of the Devils is extremely unclear. That means the Devils really only have Severson to protect on the back end, giving them some flexibility and leverage in trade talks over the next few weeks. If they end up failing to add anyone, Siegenthaler is perhaps a piece they would like to keep after acquiring him this season, but it seems unlikely he’d be picked over an available forward anyway.

Goaltending is the one place where there isn’t much debate. Blackwood is the choice, while Cormier meets the exposure requirements. Dell and Wedgewood are both pending free agents and depth options at best.

Projected Protection List

F Nico Hischier
F Jesper Bratt
F Miles Wood
F Pavel Zacha
F Yegor Sharangovich
F Michael McLeod
F Janne Kuokkanen

D Damon Severson
D Will Butcher
D Jonas Siegenthaler

G Mackenzie Blackwood

*Assuming no acquisitions

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (2): Andreas Johnsson, Nathan Bastian
Defensemen (1): P.K. Subban

One of the key decision-making factors in the protection list upfront could be these exposure requirements, as only Hischier, Johnsson, Bratt, Wood, Zacha and Bastian currently meet them. New contracts for Merkley, Sharangovich, McLeod, or Kuokkanen would get them there, but as restricted free agents they currently don’t fit. On defense, Subban and Butcher both meet the requirements, meaning the team has little to worry about on the back end.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Expansion Primer: New York Islanders

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Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

In 2017, the New York Islanders were one of the few lucky teams not to lose a player in the Expansion Draft, as the Vegas Golden Knights selected free agent goaltender Jean-Francois Berube. They paid dearly for that privilege though, trading a first-round pick, second-round pick, and defenseman Jake Bischoff (as well as the contract of Mikhail Grabovski) in order for Vegas to take Berube. The team was also the only one to protect three forwards and five defensemen.

This time around, the Islanders are unlikely to pay a heavy price to keep their unprotected players from being selected in the NHL Expansion Draft and they are also expected to go with a more orthodox protection scheme. Will they lose a good player? Sure. However, two-time reigning GM of the Year winner Lou Lamoriello has left his team in decent shape as expansion approaches.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Josh Bailey, Mathew Barzal, Anthony Beauvillier, Kieffer Bellows, Cal Clutterbuck, Austin Czarnik, Michael Dal Colle, Jordan Eberle, Ross Johnston, Otto Koivula, Leo Komarov, Andrew Ladd, Anders Lee, Matt Martin, Brock Nelson, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Dmytro Timashov

Defense:
Sebastian Aho, Thomas Hickey, Nick Leddy, Scott Mayfield, Adam Pelech, Ryan Pulock, Parker Wotherspoon

Goalies:
Ken Appleby, Semyon Varlamov

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

F Casey Cizikas, D Braydon Coburn, D Andy Greene, F Kyle Palmieri, F Travis Zajac

Notable Exemptions

D Johnny Boychuk (Inj.), D Samuel Bolduc, D Noah Dobson, D Robin Salo, G Jakub Skarek, G Ilya Sorokin, F Oliver Wahlstrom

Key Decisions

When you miss the playoffs or even exit early, it is easier to look toward the future when it comes to making difficult decisions in regards to the Expansion Draft (see: Philadelphia Flyers). However, when it comes to the Islanders, their current deep playoff run could make that difficult. The team faces several decisions in which they must choose between a top veteran or a younger future piece and must sort that out.

However, there are some no-brainers to start. In goal, the team specifically signed Appleby only to expose him, allowing them to protect starter Varlamov. On defense, the tongue-twisting top pair of Pelech and Pulock are locked in for protection. At forward, young core pieces Barzal and Beauvillier and captain Lee are also guarantees.

After that, things get difficult. The seemingly easy call is to protect their other top-scoring veteran forwards. Bailey, Nelson, Eberle, and Pageau are all key pieces to this season and playoff run and are all signed long-term. However, Bailey and Eberle will both turn 32 next season and carry expensive contracts for several more years, but have shown signs of decline in recent seasons. They will both certainly be contributors for another year or possibly longer, but are they worth losing another forward and missing out on using the cap space elsewhere?

If any of that core group of top-nine forwards is not protected, other candidates include reliable fourth liners Clutterbuck and Martin. However, the player who deserves the most consideration is young Bellows. The 23-year-old forward is a 2016 first-round pick who produced with the USNTDP, in the NCAA, the WHL, and most recently the AHL. His scoring has yet to translate to the NHL, but it seems like a safe bet. With more time and opportunity, Bellows could easily be a top goal-scorer for an NHL team. Do the Islanders risk that team being the Seattle Kraken?

One thing that is certain is that the depth up front will ensure the Islanders use the 7-3 protetion scheme. On defense, behind Pelech and Pulock, it may seem like top-scoring defenseman Leddy should be the final pick and he very well may be. After some down years, Leddy impressed this season and was invaluable to the Islanders’ success. He also plays a key leadership role as an experienced, long-time member of the team.

However, Leddy’s age and his expiring contract could make him a diminishing asset for the team. In his place, they could keep the younger, more affordable, and arguably equally valuable Mayfield. Initially more of a stay-at-home defenseman, Mayfield has rounded out his game in recent years and with that his role has increased. At $1.45MM for two more years, Mayfield is a bargain and would have a greater total impact on the team if Leddy leaves after next season, even if Leddy is the superior performer next season alone. Is that enough to make him the selection? Another outside-the-box candidate would be 22-year-old Aho, who showed potential last season but took a step back this year.

Projected Protection List

F Josh Bailey
F Mathew Barzal
F Anthony Beauvillier
F Jordan Eberle
F Anders Lee
F Brock Nelson
F Jean-Gabriel Pageau

D Nick Leddy
D Adam Pelech
D Ryan Pulock

G Semyon Varlamov

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (3): Cal Clutterbuck, Leo Komarov, Matt Martin

Defensemen (1): Scott Mayfield

The Islanders’ current playoff run could very likely determine their approach to the Expansion Draft. If they feel strongly about their success in winning the East Division or if they are able to advance to the next round, they may feel that they are close enough to winning a Stanley Cup that they keep all of their top-performing veterans. Yet, if they win the Cup, perhaps that focus shifts back to the future and the emphasis becomes long-term assets. Either way, the Islanders will have to expose good players and after giving up a king’s ransom to Vegas in the last round of Expansion and already with a relatively shallow prospect pipeline and missing several draft picks, they are unlikely to make any side deals.

If available, a top veteran like Leddy, Bailey, or Eberle would be an easy pick for Seattle. However, assuming they are protected, Mayfield does stick out as the top option. The only issue there could be that there will be many teams who expose solid defensemen and don’t have any quality forwards available. A young, high-upside forward like Bellows may be hard to pass up. The Kraken will have plenty of options and the Islanders will lose a good player – likely their No. 4 defenseman or top forward prospect – but they will survive.

Expansion Primer: New York Rangers

at CDT | by 16 Comments

Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

If you picked a team that had the least painful expansion process the last time around, the New York Rangers may be near the top. They didn’t have to make a side deal with the Vegas Golden Knights and ended up losing Oscar Lindberg, a depth player who had averaged fewer than 11 minutes a night in 2016-17. Sure, he seemed like a useful piece, but he played just two more seasons in the NHL before heading back overseas. He’s now in the KHL, a long way removed from the Rangers roster. This time around, New York is still in a pretty strong position heading into the draft and likely will avoid losing a key player once again.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Artemi Panarin (NMC), Chris Kreider (NMC), Mika Zibanejad (NMC), Ryan Strome, Kevin Rooney, Jonny Brodzinski, Anthony Greco, Colin Blackwell, Julien Gauthier, Timothy Gettinger, Gabriel Fontaine, Ty Ronning, Filip Chytil, Pavel Buchnevich, Brett Howden

Defense:

Jacob Trouba (NMC), Anthony DeAngelo, Ryan Lindgren, Anthony Bitetto, Mason Geertsen, Brandon Crawley, Libor Hajek

Goalies:

Alexandar Georgiev, Keith Kinkaid

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

Phillip Di Giuseppe, Brendan Smith, Jack Johnson

Notable Exemptions

Alexis Lafreniere, Kaapo Kakko, Vitali Kravtsov, Morgan Barron, Adam Fox, K’Andre Miller, Zachary Jones, Tarmo Reunanen, Nils Lundkvist, Igor Shesterkin

Key Decisions

For the Rangers, who have started a rebuild since the last draft, the key is in their exemptions. The real core of the future in New York isn’t even eligible to be picked, meaning no matter who they choose to protect, the group will still have tons of talent coming back next season. That leaves really only fringe choices, just like when they decided to leave Lindberg–who was a regular in the lineup–exposed to the Golden Knights.

At forward, there are three players who have no-move clauses, but all of them would deserve protection anyway. Panarin, Kreider, and Zibanejad make the veteran part of the group upfront and are key pieces if the Rangers expect to compete for the playoffs next season. Chytil, who took a strong step forward this season, is a no-doubt choice for protection to make it four. There is perhaps an argument to be made for leaving Strome or Buchnevich available, given they each are scheduled for unrestricted free agency after the 2021-22 season (Buchnevich is an RFA this summer, but a one-year arbitration award would take him to the open market), but it seems much more likely that they both will be protected as valuable assets.

That leaves one spot for several names, with a case to be made for any of Rooney, Blackwell, Gauthier, or Howden. Many would lean toward the latter two because of their youth, but that doesn’t necessarily matter when a team is trying to make the playoffs in 2021-22. Rooney and Blackwell are both better NHL players right now than the two youngsters, meaning they could end up protected ahead of them. Blackwell especially showed he could be a legitimate depth scoring option for the Rangers this season, registering 12 goals and 22 points in 47 games. The fact that he is signed for next season at a cap hit less than the league minimum makes him a valuable piece.

On defense, things would have been much more interesting if DeAngelo hadn’t worn out his welcome so thoroughly. The 25-year-old defenseman was banished from the team earlier this season and is almost certainly going to be left unprotected in the expansion draft (if he’s still a Ranger by then). Trouba’s no-movement clause stifles any debate over his place on the list and Lindgren is an obvious choice after inking his new deal. Once again, that leaves just a single spot for GM Chris Drury to play with, and again it comes down to a decision between youth and experience. Hajek played in 44 games for the Rangers this season but wasn’t very effective, while Bitetto has at least shown he can handle a bottom-pairing role in the NHL.

Of course, these decisions are all subject to change dramatically should Drury decide to pull the trigger on a trade over the next few weeks. That defensive protection slot especially could be weaponized, if he decides that Hajek is worth risking to the Kraken. The Rangers could acquire another player that is at risk elsewhere, adding him to what is looking like quite the formidable defense group for 2021-22.

In net, there isn’t really a decision to be made. The team signed Kinkaid to fill the exposure requirements so that they could protect Georgiev. The fact that Shesterkin is still ineligible despite having already turned 25 saves them from a tough call.

Projected Protection List

F Artemi Panarin
F Chris Kreider
F Mika Zibanejad
F Ryan Strome
F Filip Chytil
F Pavel Buchnevich
F Colin Blackwell

D Jacob Trouba
D Ryan Lindgren
D Libor Hajek

G Alexandar Georgiev

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (1): Kevin Rooney
Defensemen (2): Anthony DeAngelo, Anthony Bitetto

By protecting Blackwell, it does create a bit of an issue for Drury to fix. The team would then only have one forward left exposed who have both completed the requisite games played and is signed for next season. A quick contract for any of Di Giuseppe, Gauthier, or Howden would fix that problem though, something that shouldn’t be too much trouble. For defense, DeAngelo can serve as that exposure requirement if he’s still around, or Bitetto can take his place if the team makes a move in the coming weeks.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Expansion Primer: Ottawa Senators

at CDT | by 3 Comments

Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

The 2017 NHL Expansion Draft seemed like it was going to be a difficult blow to the Ottawa Senators. Coming off of a strong season and deep playoff run, a then-talented Senators lineup left several notable players exposed. The Vegas Golden Knights selected Marc Methot, a top-four defenseman who had provided an invaluable defensive and physical presence to the team. Yet, Methot – who was flipped by Vegas to the Dallas Stars – played just two more injury-riddled seasons before retiring. While the Senators’ downfall did begin in the 2017-18 season, it had nothing to do with the expansion loss of Methot.

This time around, the situation is almost exactly reversed. The Senators are coming off another poor season, but do seem to finally be back on the rise. Their rebuilding roster is full of exempt talent and those top performers who are eligible can largely all be protected. One way or another, Ottawa will likely lose a young player, but they have youth to spare and will be giving up potential rather than concrete value.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Vitaly Abramov, Michael Amadio, Drake Batherson, J.C. Beaudin, Clark Bishop, Connor Brown, Logan Brown, Evgenii Dadonov, Jonathan Davidsson, Jack Kopacka, Zach Magwood, Nick Paul, Logan Shaw, Chris Tierney, Brady Tkachuk, Austin Watson, Colin White

Defense:
Thomas Chabot, Josh Brown, Victor Mete, Nikita Zaitsev

Goalies:
Joey Daccord, Anton Forsberg, Filip Gustavsson, Marcus Hogberg, Matt Murray

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

F Artem Anisimov, F Ryan Dzingel, F Derek Stepan, 

Notable Exemptions

D Jacob Bernard-Docker, D Erik Brannstrom, F Alex Formenton, F Joshua Norris, F Shane Pinto, F Egor Sokolov, F Tim Stutzle, D Lassi Thomson, D Artem Zub

Key Decisions

The first decision that the Senators need to make is whether or not this roster, as currently constituted, is worth using all of their protection slots on. Ottawa arguably has multiple protection slots at both forward and defense that could go to superior players, if only the team went out and acquired them. While most clubs across the NHL are struggling to protect all of their valuable assets, the Senators have room to spare with so much of their young roster exempt from protection. Ottawa has the opportunity to acquire players who would be exposed on other teams at discount prices ahead of the Expansion Draft, as they are one of the few teams with both the ability to protect them and the picks and prospects to acquire them. If they choose, the Senators could use the impending threat of expansion to step out of their rebuild and back into competitive status by adding veterans from a desperate market.

For this exercise, assume they don’t add anyone else; those questions still exist internally. Ottawa went out and re-acquired Dzingel even though he was on an expiring contract and the Senators were not in playoff contention this year. To this point, the two sides have not agreed on an extension and there has been no word of one either. However, it is to the team’s benefit to have some veterans in the locker room and Dzingel’s best seasons were earlier in his career in Ottawa. Rather than let the Kraken negotiate with him prior to the Expansion Draft, the team needs to decide if they want to re-sign him and if so should do so before another team can enter the fray. If Stepan is willing to stay in Ottawa, contrary to popular belief, the same scenario would apply to him.

Again, assuming Dzingel and Stepan remain UFA’s they are unlikely to be protected, especially if talks on a new contract have not gone far. Forward still remains the major area of decision-making for the Senators, as there are many eligible names and plenty of untapped potential. The likely locks include top young scorers Tkachuk and Batherson and veteran Connor Brown. Hard-working fan favorite Paul is also very likely to be protected.

Beyond that, Ottawa could go in a number of directions. They are however restricted by the exposure quota. Protecting the aforementioned four players leaves three spots available, but also just four forwards who meet the exposure requirements, meaning all three cannot be used on veteran lineup regulars. The leading candidates of those four to be protected are likely White and Dadonov. White has had an up-and-down couple of years, but the Senators believed in him enough to sign him to his current long-term contract. The same logic applies to the veteran Dadonov, who Ottawa chased as a free agent last off-season and signed to a substantial deal. He failed to impress overall in his first season with the club, but displayed his elite ability in spurts. It seems unlikely that they would part with either one already if they can help it. This would leave third line center Tierney and bottom-six winger Watson to meet the quota. Neither would be a major loss for Ottawa, but either one could argue for their protection over White or Dadonov based on consistency and two-way contribution.

The final forward spot will have to go to one of the Senators’ younger, less proven forwards. Top candidates include 2020-21 acquisitions Bishop and Amadio or prospects Abramov, Davidsson, or Logan Brown. Seeing as Bishop and Amadio both did little with their Ottawa experience this season and previously struggled with other teams, they are unlikely to be protected or selected by Seattle. Davidsson, who has produced in Sweden but failed to do so in North America, is probably not worth the investment. That leaves Abramov and Brown as the two most likely choices. Until recently, Abramov seemed like a safe bet given his strong AHL production, but after signing in the KHL for next season, his future contributions in Ottawa are now in question. Brown is a 2016 first-round pick with great size and presence at the center position who has shown flashes of promise in the AHL, but has yet to make an impact at the top level. Loaded with potential as both a physical force and skilled contributor, it would be hard to watch Brown leave and succeed elsewhere, but he has been given numerous chances to do so already in Ottawa.

In goal, there are plenty of options for the Senators, but who to protect should actually be a relatively easy decision for the club. Gustavsson, still just 23, looked excellent in his first NHL action this season, is a highly-touted prospect, and most importantly is waiver-exempt next season. If exposed, he is an ideal option to serve as Seattle’s No. 3 goalie next season and could blossom into an NHL starter. Unless the Senators want to use him as bait to draw the Kraken away from other exposed players, they need to protect Gustavsson or he will be taken. Daccord is not all that different from Gustavsson – a young, well-regarded, waivers-exempt goaltender. However, Daccord is two years older, has performed poorly in his brief NHL history, and is coming off of a season-ending surgery. Add in that he is signed long-term to a contract that becomes one-way, despite having shown that he can be a stable NHL presence yet, and Daccord is not as valuable as Gustavsson.

Funny enough, starter Murray is likely not in contention for protection at all. After a dismal start to his Senators career this season, Seattle is not touching his contract with three years remaining at a $6.25MM AAV. If they do, Ottawa will rejoice. As for 2020-21 primary backup Hogberg, he has signed overseas and the Senators have already revealed that he will not be qualified. The Kraken will not be interested in a 26-year-old UFA signed elsewhere. The final option in net, veteran Forsberg, is a career No. 3 who is also not a risk to be selected.

On defense, the decision is too easy, thus the question of whether Ottawa should add veterans to their roster before the Expansion Draft. Chabot is the lone lock and also the only player worth protecting on most NHL rosters. Waiver claim Mete looked good upon his arrival to Ottawa and is likely to be protected. The decision thus comes down to Zaitsev versus Brown: one is protected and the other fills the exposure requirement. Zaitsev was an everyday starter for Ottawa this season, but a poor one and signed to a bad, multi-year contract. Brown was a part-time player this year and showed little upside. Neither player should be protected, but the Senators will probably protect Brown as Zaitsev’s contract makes him the less likely of the two to be surprisingly selected by Seattle.

Projected Protection List

F Drake Batherson
F Connor Brown
F Logan Brown
F Evgenii Dadonov
F Nick Paul
F Brady Tkachuk
F Colin White

D Josh Brown
D Thomas Chabot
D Victor Mete

G Filip Gustavsson

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (2): Chris Tierney, Austin Watson

Defensemen (1): Nikita Zaitsev

With capable veterans in Tierney and Watson (or Murray and Zaitsev if Seattle is struggling to hit the cap floor), the Senators could provide an NHL veteran to the Seattle roster. The odds-on favorite in that scenario is Tierney, as the Kraken will not have many skilled centers to choose from in the draft. More likely though, it will be one of Ottawa’s young prospect forwards who is selected. Of the group, Abramov may still be the most attractive and his KHL commitment for next season could actually be seen as a benefit. The Kraken must select 30 players, most of whom are not waiver-exempt, but can only have 23 players on the roster. A talented scoring forward playing overseas next season is a safe way to add future potential that also doesn’t need a roster spot and can’t be stolen on waivers. Abramov could return in a year or two and step right into a starting role.

As noted, Daccord could also be attractive as a minor league goaltending option for the Kraken, who will have few players that can safely clear waivers and could value that depth in net with Daccord, who brings experience and a track record of success in the NCAA and AHL. His NHL numbers are a concern, but he would have another year to develop in the minors before Seattle had to decide on giving him a roster spot or risking him on waivers.

The other option for Seattle would be to negotiate with one of Ottawa’s impending free agent forwards. Without a ton of options to select from the active roster, instead agreeing to terms with a Dzingel or Stepan could be the way to go for the Kraken. Either one could be a superior forward to Tierney or Watson in the right system.

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