Trade Candidate: Petr Mrazek
With the trade deadline approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that have a good chance to be dealt by February 26th.
After a particularly rough 2016-17 season, the Red Wings were hoping that goaltender Petr Mrazek would bounce back to the level of play from the year before that, one that saw him become a quality NHL starter. That hasn’t happened and as a result, he has been involved in trade speculation nearly all season long and those talks should only intensify over the next three weeks leading up to deadline day.
Contract
Mrazek is in the final year of a two-year, $8MM deal. He is due a qualifying offer of $4.15MM (his current salary) in June.
2017-18
The start of the season saw the 25-year-old put up even worse numbers than he did last season, notching a GAA of 3.64 with a .892 SV% through the first three months of the year and as a result, he found himself squarely behind Jimmy Howard on the pecking order.
Things started to turn for him in January, however. Following a loss to the Lightning where he allowed five goals, Mrazek allowed just six goals total in his last six appearances (five starts) and has started to shoulder more of the workload.
Despite that, there is still a legitimate question about whether he will have done enough to warrant receiving a qualifying offer in the summer. As a result, there’s a case to be made that he will not only to be looking to reclaim the starting job down the stretch but that he will be also trying to showcase himself for prospective suitors if he is let go.
Season Stats
18 GP, 7-5-2 record, 2.74 GAA, .914 SV%, 3 SO
Potential Suitors
Unlike forwards or defensemen, the trade market for goaltenders is a lot more limited but there are still some potential fits. The Islanders have had their own share of goalie woes this season and are tumbling down the Metropolitan Division as a result. They could conceivably look at Mrazek’s hot streak and view him as a short-term upgrade on their current tandem. I also wouldn’t rule out Pittsburgh depending on what else the Penguins are (or aren’t) able to do as they may want to have some experienced insurance behind Matt Murray.
In the West, Mrazek could represent a fallback option if the Sharks decide to part with their potential top trade chip in netminder Aaron Dell to add help up front before the deadline. They have the cap room to take his contract on without any concern. Chicago has less of a need now that Corey Crawford appears likely to return but if the Red Wings are willing to retain on his contract, he could still represent an upgrade as their backup if the Blackhawks are looking to make a playoff push.
Likelihood Of A Trade
This will come down to how much GM Ken Holland is looking for in a return. If the asking price is around where it was believed to be earlier in the season (a mid-round draft pick) with them being willing to retain on his contract if necessary, there is a decent chance that he will move despite there being a pretty limited goalie market overall. However, if they look to leverage his current stretch of games into a higher return, that may be enough to turn teams looking for depth between the pipes in other directions.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Red Wings May Be Open To Moving Gustav Nyquist And Tomas Tatar
While Detroit’s rental players have garnered the most attention in trade speculation, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported in an appearance on 630 CHED (audio link) that wingers Tomas Tatar and Gustav Nyquist are players that the Red Wings have tried to move at times for a couple of years now and that they may be looking at trying to deal them once again. Both players have underachieved considerably this season but have each put up at least 43 points in the past three years and that track record might be of interest to some teams. Both are signed for beyond this season with Nyquist having one more year left at $4.75MM while Tatar has three more years at $5.3MM which will make him considerably tougher to deal. While Detroit is believed to be willing to retain salary on some of their expiring contracts, they likely won’t be as willing to do so in a move for either of these veterans.
Snapshots: Lundqvist, Zetterberg, Ronning
The New York Rangers are staring down the barrel of a potential rebuild, but their one constant is here for the long haul. Henrik Lundqvist told Larry Brooks of the New York Post today that though he hopes to compete for the Stanley Cup every year, he has no intention of going anywhere even if they do start selling off assets.
I want to play for one organization. This one. I love it here. I want to be here and battle through the ups and downs, the good and the bad. It’s important to me.
Lundqvist has three years remaining on a contract that carries an $8.5MM cap hit and a full no-movement clause, and despite struggles in his last two games still carries a .919 save percentage this season. That mark is just barely under his career number, in what has been a likely Hall of Fame career already.
- Henrik Zetterberg, another legendary Swedish-born player who has played for just a single organization, is perhaps already in the midst of a sort of rebuild. The Detroit Red Wings are struggling to fight for a playoff spot and are rumored to be looking at deals for players like Mike Green and Petr Mrazek, but won’t be asking Zetterberg to waive his trade protection anytime soon. Craig Custance of The Athletic (subscription required) reports that the current Red Wings front office will not try to deal Zetterberg even if a contender comes knocking.
- Ty Ronning, son of long time NHL forward Cliff Ronning, is finding a ton of success as he finishes his junior career with the Vancouver Giants. The 20-year old forward has 44 goals in 50 games, and could find himself under a professional contract before long. Rick Dhaliwal of News 1130 in Vancouver reports that Ronning has had “positive talks” with the Rangers, who drafted him 201st overall in 2016. The undersized sniper played 12 games for the Hartford Wolf Pack last spring, scoring five points in the process.
Final Standings Projections At The Mid-Way Point
It’s impossible to tell exactly how the remainder of the 2017-18 season will shake out, but with the NHL set to resume it’s unofficial second half of the season tomorrow, there’s no better time to look at the current state of the league. The final standings could look much like they do now or they could differ greatly, depending on whether or not the status quo shifts over the next few months. The trade deadline, rookie wall, and the health rigors of an 82-game season can all change the course of the campaign for many teams, but as of now, this is what the final standings and 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs will look like:
Atlantic Division
- Tampa Bay Lightning – 119 points
- Boston Bruins – 115 points
- Toronto Maple Leafs – 98 points
- Detroit Red Wings – 79 points
- Montreal Canadiens – 77 points
- Florida Panthers – 77 points
- Ottawa Senators – 68 points
- Buffalo Sabres – 62 points
Metropolitan Division
- Washington Capitals – 105 points
- New Jersey Devils – 96 points
- Columbus Blue Jackets – 95 points
- Philadelphia Flyers – 94 points
- Pittsburgh Penguins – 92 points
- New York Islanders – 90 points
- New York Rangers – 90 points
- Carolina Hurricanes – 87 points
Eastern Conference First Round Playoff Match-ups:
#1A Tampa Bay vs. #2W Pittsburgh
#1M Washington vs. #1W Philadelphia
#2A Boston vs. #3A Toronto
#2M New Jersey vs. #3M Columbus
Central Division
- Nashville Predators – 113 points
- Winnipeg Jets – 108 points
- St. Louis Blues – 101 points
- Dallas Stars – 98 points
- Colorado Avalanche – 97 points
- Minnesota Wild – 95 points
- Chicago Blackhawks – 89 points
Pacific Division
- Vegas Golden Knights – 116 points
- San Jose Sharks – 101 points
- Calgary Flames – 97 points
- Los Angeles Kings – 95 points
- Anaheim Ducks – 93 points
- Edmonton Oilers – 79 points
- Vancouver Canucks – 74 points
- Arizona Coyotes – 54 points
Western Conference First Round Playoff Match-ups:
#1P Vegas vs. #2W Colorado
#1C Nashville vs. #1W Dallas
#2C Winnipeg vs. #3C St. Louis
#2P San Jose vs. #3P Calgary
The biggest takeaway from this current outlook? It won’t take 100 points to be a playoff team this year, but the vast number of mediocre teams opens the door for some last-minute playoff drama. The Islanders, Rangers, Wild, and Kings all project to be just one win outside of a playoff berth. These races could come down to the wire. It should be a fun second half.
Which Teams Would Have Flexibility In Another Expansion Draft?
Midway-through the 2017-18 NHL season, it is nearly impossible to predict what rosters could look like following the 2019-20 season, more than two years away. Trades, free agency, and much more shape teams often in ways that no one sees coming. With that said, it seems like another Expansion Draft is coming to add the league’s 32nd team, the Seattle __________, and the timeline most are suggesting is a June 2020 draft date. Like it or not, the general managers of the other 31 NHL need to be keeping that in the back of their mind with each move they make over the next two seasons.
However, it could be that some have already made decisions that could impact their roster protection plans more than two years from now. The structure of the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft will the remain the same, allowing for teams to protect seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie or eight skaters regardless of position and one goalie from being selected. The one caveat that threw more than a few teams for a loop last June was that all players with No-Movement Clauses (NMC) in their contracts had to be protected, unless the players voluntarily chose to wave them i.e. Marc-Andre Fleury. So, with that one aspect of the expansion process in mind, it is possible to look ahead at certain long-term contracts to see, assuming those players don’t waive them ahead of time, who could be locked in for protection in 2020 or which teams will have more flexibility without any such players:
Total Flexibility
Arizona Coyotes (0) – The only NMC players on the Coyotes are defensemen Alex Goligoski and Niklas Hjalmarsson. Hjalmarsson will be a free agent in the summer of the projected Expansion Draft and Goligoski’s clause will have shifted to a Modified No-Trade Clause. Arizona will likely have complete flexibility.
Buffalo Sabres (0) – Kyle Okposo‘s NMC expires after this season and Jason Pominville‘s contract expires after next season. Buffalo won’t have any restrictions on their protection scheme as of now.
Calgary Flames (0) – There is no one on the roster with a NMC and no one that will predictably get one by the end of the 2019-20 season. Kudos to GM Brad Treliving.
Los Angeles Kings (0) – Kings’ captain Anze Kopitar in their only NMC player right now and even his clause will have shifted to No-Trade by 2020. L.A. is free and clear.
Nashville Predators (0) – GM David Poile does not seem to be a fan of NMC’s in his recent long-term deals and in the new NHL expansion era, that’s a good thing.
New Jersey Devils (0) – see Calgary Flames
New York Islanders (0) – The Andrew Ladd and Johnny Boychuk contracts already look bad for the Isles. They would be much worse if their NMC’s didn’t expire soon. With John Tavares and Josh Bailey both candidates for NMC’s should they re-sign in New York and a defense that needs a re-haul, the Islanders could lose some flexibility, but they should be fine.
Toronto Maple Leafs (0) – The Leafs have no NMC players under contract beyond 2019-20 right now. That could easily change with Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander in need of extensions, but Toronto should still be in a good spot. After all, those are players that would protected regardless.
Vancouver Canucks (0) – Loui Eriksson‘s NMC shifts to a No-Trade Clause following this season and will be an afterthought by 2020. It’s fortunate, as Eriksson’s tenure in Vancouver has not gone according to plan.
Vegas Golden Knights (0) – The Golden Knights didn’t sign or trade for any players with NMC’s and only drafted two – Marc-Andre Fleury and David Clarkson – who already had them and they both expire before the Knights would be set to become the NHL’s second-newest team. With that said, the current Knights’ roster will see a lot of turnover in the next two years and they may struggle to avoid NMC’s completely.
Washington Capitals (0) – GM Brian MacLellan has avoided NMC’s in any of his recent mega-deals. If he can do it again this summer in his attempt to re-sign (or replace) John Carlson, then the Caps will be in good shape for another round of expansion drafting.
Winnipeg Jets (0) – The NMC in Bryan Little‘s contract will both kick in and expire between now and June 2020. The Jets should be left with a fully flexible lineup.
Some Flexibility
Boston Bruins (2) – There’s little concern that Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron will still be playing at a high level in two years. Their NMC’s should be a non-factor for Boston. If David Krejci and, especially, David Backes still had their NMC’s too at that time, there would be a real logjam up front. However, both will have shifted to Modified No-Trade Clauses by then, potentially saving the Bruins from making tough decisions about their many talented young forwards.
Carolina Hurricanes (1) – As important a job as he’s had in Carolina, Jordan Staal will never be the star forward that finally puts them over the top. If his NMC causes a problem in 2020, he could easily be traded to a contender to play a complementary role. The Hurricanes need to retain as many promising young forward assets as they can in hopes of one day finding that true superstar.
Colorado Avalanche (1) – There are mixed opinions on Erik Johnson, but he has a leadership role for the Avalanche and will be key in grooming a strong crop of up-and-coming defensive prospects. The Avs won’t lose sleep about having to protect him in expansion, especially if he’s still one of their top-pairing guys in two years.
Columbus Blue Jackets (1) – The Blue Jackets were one of the biggest losers in the most recent Expansion Draft. They might be smart to sell off Nick Foligno if there’s any risk that history repeats itself.
Dallas Stars (3) – Call it optimism about his play in his first season in Dallas, but the NMC for Alexander Radulov doesn’t seem like it will be a major issue even after a couple more years. Of course, Jamie Benn‘s NMC will also be a non-factor. Ben Bishop on the other hand may not be the goalie the Stars would prefer to keep in two years. As of now, there’s no immediate competition though.
Detroit Red Wings (1) – Detroit only has one NMC player who will still be under contract in 2020-21 (and another season after that), but it’s Frans Nielsen, who has been a major disappointment for the team since coming over from the New York Islanders. He could throw a wrench in their plans if he continues his downward trend over the next two seasons.
Minnesota Wild (2) – The Ryan Suter and Zach Parise mega-deals will still be making an impact in 2020, but with most of the core locked up throughout that season and no other NMC contract likely on their way, Minnesota should be okay in the Expansion Draft.
Montreal Canadiens (2) – Even if the Canadiens continue to struggle through two more seasons, there will be few Habs fans that blame superstar goalie Carey Price. His NMC won’t be an issue because the team would never dream of leaving him exposed. Jeff Petry on the other hand could be a problem. Luckily (?), it doesn’t look like Montreal will have many defenders worth protecting even in the next couple of seasons.
Ottawa Senators (2) – Some things never change. The NMC’s for Bobby Ryan and Dion Phaneuf were problems for the Senators in this past Expansion Draft and they’ll likely be problems again next time around. If Phaneuf is traded between now and then, that alleviates some concern for Ottawa. Good luck moving the Ryan contract though.
Philadelphia Flyers (1) – Only Claude Giroux has and predictably will have an NMC come June 2020. That’s a pretty safe situation for Philly.
San Jose Sharks (1) – Marc-Edouard Vlasic plays a confident, stay-at-home defensive game that often ages nicely. He looks to be the only NMC in San Jose in 2020, which shouldn’t cause a stir.
St. Louis Blues (1) – Patrik Berglund will be on the wrong side of 30 and still under a NMC when the potential 2020 draft rolls around, but with the rest of their core signed long-term without NMC’s, the Blues should be pretty safe.
Tampa Bay Lightning (2) – Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman may be the two safest NMC contracts in the NHL. Fortunately, Ryan Callahan‘s otherwise-problematic NMC expires just prior to projected 2020 Expansion Draft.
Little Flexibility
Anaheim Ducks (3) – Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, and Ryan Kesler will all be 35+ and still be NMC-protected in 2020. That’s a large chunk of your protected forwards to dedicate to players in the twilight of their careers. Some up-and-coming young talent could leave Anaheim again in this next Expansion Draft a la Shea Theodore.
Chicago Blackhawks (4) – The downside to signing all of your core players to long contracts with NMC’s could hit the Blackhawks hard in the next Expansion Draft. Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews will be well past 30 and Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith will be in their mid-to-late 30’s during the 2020-21 season, but all four will need to be protected ahead of that season, which could force other promising younger players out of Chicago’s protection scheme. At least they’ll narrowly avoid having an issue in net with Corey Crawford‘s contract expiring prior.
Edmonton Oilers (2) – Milan Lucic and Kris Russell. Each two years older than they are now. Those aren’t exactly players that a team wants to be forced to keep. It’s foreseeable that one or both could have a negative impact on the team’s protection plan.
Florida Panthers (3) – The Panthers probably won’t mind having three players locked up come Expansion 2.0. The team knew what they were doing when they signed Keith Yandle long-term. Even in his mid-30’s, Yandle will be a reliable player and a leader for the young Florida defensive core. Sure, they considered asking him to waive his NMC this past June, but they never actually did. Yandle won’t be a major issue in two years unless his play falls off considerably. There should be no concern whatsoever over Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov, whose NMC’s kick in later on in their contracts. The same might not be true about Evgeni Dadonov, whose been somewhat underwhelming so far in Florida, but luckily his contract runs out just prior the probable draft date.
New York Rangers (4) – Although they will have near total control over their forwards, outside of Mika Zibanejad, the Rangers could be in a tough position with their protection schemes in net and on the blue line in 2020. Then-38-year-old Henrik Lundqvist will require protection, as will underachieving defensemen Kevin Shattenkirk and Marc Staal. New York is apparently readying themselves for somewhat of a rebuild, which could mean some of those players are traded beforehand. Otherwise New York could face quite the dilemma.
Pittsburgh Penguins (4) – It seems unlikely, even years from now and in their mid-30’s, that the NMC’s for Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, or Phil Kessel would cause trouble for the Penguins. Injury-prone defenseman Kris Letang could be different though. Being forced to protect him after another two seasons of hard minutes could be difficult to swallow. Pittsburgh also has some work to do filling out the forward corps between now and 2020. GM Jim Rutherford would be well-served to avoid acquiring or handing out any further NMC’s.
Should Detroit Move Nyquist At Deadline?
- The Toronto Sun’s Steve Simmons wonders how the Toronto Maple Leafs will stay motivated in the final third of the season. The scribe writes that the Maple Leafs have basically locked up a playoff spot (albeit, unofficially) as they are entrenched in the Atlantic Division’s third playoff spot with a 28-18-5 record. They are unlikely to move up as Boston is five points ahead of them and surging and Tampa Bay 10 points ahead of them in the standings. They are also not likely to fall out of the playoffs as the Detroit Red Wings and Montreal Canadiens are 15 points behind them. Simmons believes that coach Mike Babcock will have his hands full for the remainder of the season and hopes when the time comes, the team will be ready for the playoffs.
Trade Candidates: Mike Green
With the trade deadline approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that have a good chance to be dealt by February 26th.
The Red Wings desperately needed a trade chip as Hockeytown stares at another likely season without a playoff appearance. Mike Green fits that role, has been healthy, and one of the leaders on the scoresheet this season for an offensively starved Red Wings squad. Green is also the lone Detroit All-Star. For a team seeking prospects and picks, any additional positive with Green can only help.
Contract
Green is in the final year of a three-year, $18MM deal ($6MM AAV). He does have a no-trade clause, but most pundits agree that for the right team, he’ll waive it for a chance at the Stanley Cup.
2017-18
Green is on pace for his best season in Motown. After a hot start with 11 points in his first 10 games, Green cooled but has still been the best producer on what is a very thin blue line. In his last ten games, Green has just one goal and three assists and had a brutal game against Chicago, being on the ice for four of the five Blackhawk goals. Though he’s known for being an offensive defenseman, Green is weak in his own end, which has been apparent on a Red Wings squad that suffers defensively. A glimpse into his advanced stats and it tells a story of a defenseman logging top minutes for a below average team. One of his liabilities this season has been turning the puck awful in bad spots–often leading to scoring chances or goals.
Green brings a right hand shot from the point and is a mainstay on what was a resurgent Red Wings power play. As of late, Detroit has struggled but Green’s crisp passing and offensive prowess is a major asset.
Season Stats
48 GP, 5 goals, 21 assists, 26 points, -5 rating, 26 PIM, 22:35 ATOI, 46.8 CF%,
Potential Suitors
His former team, the Washington Capitals, come to mind right away as there would be comfort there with some familiar faces on the bench. Tampa Bay is another option, as they’re certainly gearing up for what should be a long run and adding Green to an already strong blue line would only strengthen an already formidable corps. Vegas, as Craig Custance pointed out, has a “ton of picks” and former Washington general manager George McPhee drafted Green back in 2004.
One other team to keep in mind–the Chicago Blackhawks. Though at this point it may be a longshot due to their struggles, the Red Wings could ease the burden of the cap hit by absorbing 50% of it to grab either a prospect or a draft pick. There’s no secret that Chicago needs a few more pieces on the blue line and Green’s offensive upside could be of help, especially for a power play that has been abysmal this season.
Likelihood of a Trade
It’s not if he’ll be traded but when. There are a lot of question marks in Detroit–first and foremost being the future of Ken Holland. Though not in it for the rebuild, Holland’s hand has been forced as its evident the Wings are nowhere near a playoff team or contender. Holland is also in the final year of a contract with no talks of an extension. In the salary cap era, Holland has been reluctant to trade and when he has, the returns have often been underwhelming. The Red Wings need as many high picks as they can get and unless the market dictates it, it will be tough to pry a first round pick away for him. Second and third round picks seem the likeliest options for him, if not a prospect as well. Holland needs to be creative and Green provides his best chance at a nice return.
All that remains to be seen is whether it’s closer to the deadline or sooner.
Detroit Open To Moving Howard; Helm And Abdelkader Likely To Play Wednesday
While many have expected the Red Wings will try to move goaltender Petr Mrazek before the trade deadline, MLive’s Ansar Khan reports that Detroit will look to move netminder Jimmy Howard. The 33-year-old is having a down year compared to his stellar 2016-17 campaign and has posted a 2.82 GAA and a .911 SV% in 38 games this season. However, what makes him a tougher candidate to deal than Mrazek (eligible for restricted free agency with a $4.15MM qualifying offer) is Howard’s contract, which has one year left on it beyond this season with a cap charge just shy of $5.3MM and a 10-team no-trade clause. The goalie market isn’t expected to be too robust in the next month and expiring contracts will likely yield more attention for those teams seeking help or additional depth.
- Still with the Red Wings, they’re expected to get both center Darren Helm (leg) and winger Justin Abdelkader (groin) back on Wednesday, reports Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press. Both players have been out of the lineup since sustaining their injuries back on January 13th against the Penguins.
Detroit Red Wings Ready To Sell
The Detroit Red Wings were hoping for a better season in 2017-18 than the year before. In 2016-17, the storied franchise missed the playoffs for the first time in a quarter century, going 33-36-13 and finishing seventh in the Atlantic Division. They missed Nicklas Lidstrom, Pavel Datsyuk and other legendary Red Wings players, and relied too heavily on an aging Henrik Zetterberg for their offensive spark. They sold some assets at the traded deadline, knowing they weren’t headed for the playoffs. This year is much the same.
Through 47 games, the Red Wings are 19-20-8 and in almost exactly the same place they were a year prior—when they had a 20-19-8 record. Now that same selling decision has been made, according to a source for The Athletic’s Craig Custance (subscription required) and the Red Wings are one of the first teams to contact others around the league making it clear they’re ready to deal. Whether that means a full tear down or just expiring contracts isn’t clear, though Custance believes there is more “willingness to move players with term on their contracts,” at least for the right price. He details those that may be available, including pending free agent Mike Green who recently ranked tenth in our Midseason UFA Power Rankings.
The idea of a tear down in Detroit though poses another question. What happens to GM Ken Holland?
If the last two years have been viewed as a disappointment in Detroit, the salary structure going forward is a disaster. The team has few really exciting pieces, and yet find themselves at the very top of the league in terms of projected cap hit according to CapFriendly. They have quite a bit of dead money in the way of Johan Franzen‘s long-term injury and Stephen Weiss‘ buyout payments, and still have long-term deals on the books for players like Justin Abdelkader, Frans Nielsen and Danny DeKeyser.
The decision to tear down, or at least sell off a good portion of assets is probably the right move for the struggling club. Despite sitting in fourth place in the Atlantic, they are 13 points behind the Toronto Maple Leafs and would easily rank dead last in the Metropolitan. But if a real fire-sale is going to happen, allowing Holland to captain it seems like a vote of confidence in his role going forward. If the team has any plans of moving on from their long-time executive, why allow him to be the deciding voice on which assets to keep or jettison, or moreover which ones to bring in?
There have been several rumors over the past few months that Holland could be a new face in Vancouver, added to their front office group after Jim Benning‘s contract expires at the end of the season. Whether there is any truth to that is still to be seen, but for now Holland remains in control of the Red Wings. A tear down is important and can be empowering for a franchise and its fans if done correctly. Before the decision is made on whether to trade Tomas Tatar or Gustav Nyquist, a similar one will have to be made a little higher up the food chain.
Red Wings Likely To Wait Until Close To Trade Deadline To Move Mike Green
MLive’s Ansar Khan expects the Red Wings to wait until close to the trade deadline before moving any of their players. The strategy worked well for them last as they were able to garner a strong return for pending UFA defender Brendan Smith. They hold arguably the top trade chip on the back end this season in Mike Green and given his $6MM cap hit, interested teams may prefer to wait to acquire him anyway to reduce the amount of salary they’re taking on. However, it’s also a possibility that doing so could wind up delaying the trade market on the back end as other buyers look to see what the benchmark will be.