Potential Buyout Options
NHL fans are looking ahead to an offseason which will likely see a lot of movement, but will also feature teams tight up against a stagnant cap ceiling. Buyouts are always an option teams will weigh, although certainly an avenue of last resort. Dumping a contract isn’t as simple as taking the player’s salary off the books. They will count as 1/3 or 2/3 of the original cap hit, for twice the remaining years on that contract. So if a 26 year old player has two years remaining at $3 MM, he will cost $1 MM for four years against the team’s cap total. That means a substantial savings of $2 MM, but is a habit GMs will not want to fall into. For players over 26, the 2/3 rule applies, and that same player would count for $2 MM each of the next four seasons. In such a scenario, the savings are rarely worth it. However, teams can be backed into this corner when trade options completely vanish.
For the 2017 offseason, there is an extra component at play – the expansion draft. Players with full No-Movement Clauses must be protected by their team, exposing potentially better, younger, cheaper options to selection by the Vegas Golden Knights. Prior to the expansion draft, on June 15-17th, there will be a buyout window. Consequently, there will most likely be at least one case where a player who otherwise would not have been bought out will be due to a team’s long-term prospects. This certainly isn’t what the NHLPA had hoped for when they agreed to another 20+ players in the league with the expansion of Vegas, but is an unfortunate unforeseen consequence. Here are just some of the players who could be facing the buyout option this summer:
Antti Niemi – Dallas Stars
Both Niemi and fellow goalie Kari Lehtonen should be expecting this fate. With Ben Bishop signing a massive six-year contract with Dallas, their time as starters in this league look all but complete. Both are paid an asburd amount of money, but Niemi’s $4.5 MM is the more unpalatable total. His .892 save percentage through 37 games this year was only edged in ineptitude by Michal Neuvirth among tenders who got more than 15 starts. At his pricetag he is virtually unmoveable, and with only one year remaining on his contract, the hit would be worth it for 2 seasons to keep him away from the team.
Kevin Bieksa – Anaheim Ducks
Bieksa might seem an odd inclusion on this list, considering his age, but it should be remembered that he has a No-Movement Clause, meaning he would need to be protected by the Ducks. Needing to also protect Sami Vatanen, Cam Fowler, and Hampus Lindholm, even under the 8 player protection model, this would likely expose Josh Manson. Considering his play in this post-season, and Bieksa’s complete inability to remain healthy, this is a darkhorse candidate for a last-minute buyout. Bieksa’s Corsi is the worst on the backend for his team and his skating has looked quite problematic of late. The flare of his Vancouver days seems long past and with only one year remaining at $4 MM, he seems an easy target to eliminate.
Scott Hartnell – Columbus Blue Jackets
Hartnell is considered a gutsy character player, a net-front presence, and a veteran leader. However, he has seen his production shift from being that of a decent offensive threat (28 G, 32 A in 2014-15) to an average third liner (13 goals, 24 A in 2016-17). His problems run deeper, though, as his brand of physical hockey has taken its toll on his play. No longer quite the intimidating wrecking-ball of his Philadelphia days, Hartnell is not as effective on the forecheck as he once was. The reason he is included on this list, however, is because Columbus has a lot of young, promising players they will wish to protect in the expansion draft, and Hartnell has a No-Movement Clause. At 34 years old and in a quickly diminishing role, it will be difficult for GM Jarmo Kekalainen to save a space for Hartnell. With toughness adequately filled by hard-nosed forwards in Brandon Dubinsky, Boone Jenner, Nick Foligno, and Brandon Saad, he seems even more superfluous. Assuming Dubinsky (NMC), Brandon Saad, Jenner, Foligno (NMC), Cam Atkinson, and Matt Calvert are protected, Hartnell’s inclusion would sacrifice the 24 year-old William Karlsson. That’s a difficult concession for the Jackets to make, even if the youngster took a step back offensively this season. If they would opt to buy out Hartnell’s contract at $4.75 MM, it would mean $3.16 MM in dead space for 4 more seasons, a hefty pill to swallow.
There are certain to be other candidates for buyouts as well, but these are three that could easily find themselves looking for a new contract come June 18th.
Predators’ Draft Plummet
If the Nashville Predators are ever to win a Stanley Cup, this seems the most likely year. Their window is far from closing, to be sure. But for a team that doesn’t often spend to the cap, their long-term finances may become complicated. They have a multitude of players performing well above their contract levels, are benefiting from Entry-Level Contracts (Viktor Arvidsson and Kevin Fiala), and the bulk of their team is in their late twenties. Nashville isn’t the most dynamic offensive force, but have gotten enough scoring this outing to support the absurdly good top-four defense and brilliant goaltending from Pekka Rinne (.951 SV%).
That said, if they fail to win the glorious prize at the end of four series, will their draft plummet be seen as worth the hassle? They finished with the West’s lowest seeding in Wild Card 2, and the worst overall record in the playoffs at 94 points, edging out the Calgary Flames and Toronto Maple Leafs. Their draft plummet is quite the precarious one, similar to the 8th seeded 2011-12 Los Angeles Kings in the entry draft. Of course, that team went 16-4 in the postsesason to win the Stanley Cup, and certainly didn’t mind sacrificing a higher first-round pick to win their franchise’s first title.
But what if they hadn’t won? By advancing to the post-season’s final four, Los Angeles automatically shifted from drafting 16th to 30th. If the Predators were to lose in the Conference Finals, it would mean a drop from 17th to 28th. A Finals loss would mean 30th. Obviously, fans aren’t concerned with these sorts of trivialities when rooting on their team to glory, nor necessarily should they be. However, for management, this is quite the potential concern. Finding failure late in the playoffs and then also suffering the sting of a draft position dive is tough to stomach. After all, deals can sometimes hinge on whether a first or second round pick is early, mid, or late round.
For reference, let us look at the last 10 years draft history with regard to the 17th and 28th selections to see the potential disparity:
2016: 17th D Dante Fabbro (NSH), 28th F Lucas Johannson (WSH)
2015: 17th F Kyle Connor (WPG), 28th F Anthony Beauvillier (NYI)
2014: 17th D Travis Sanheim (PHI), 28th Josh Ho-Sang (NYI)
2013: 17th F Curtis Lazar (OTT), 28th F Morgan Klimchuck (CGY)
2012: 17th F Tomas Hertl (SJ), 28th D Brady Skjei (NYR)
2011: 17th F Nathan Beaulieu (MTL), 28th F Zach Phillips (MIN)
2010: 17th F Joey Hison (COL), 28th F Charlie Coyle (MIN)
2009: 17th D David Rundblad (STL), 28th F Dylan Olsen (TBL)
2008: 17th D Jake Gardiner (ANA), 28th F Viktor Tikhonov (PHX)
2007: 17th F Alexei Cherepanov (NYR), 28th Nick Petrecki (SJ)
The jury is still completely out on last year’s draft class, but as you can see, the two prior years have worked out quite well for the New York Islanders at the 28th spot. Beauvillier and Ho-Sang have both developed into studs quite quickly, while Connor and Sanheim still have a lot to prove. As we look at the last decade of entry drafts, there seems to be no real discernible advantage in terms of NHL projection. So although 11 spots seems like an awful long way to drop, Nashville (and any other future conference finalists) can rest easy that their relative success will still hinge upon being able to scout and develop talent properly.
NHL Announces 2018 Winter Classic Match-Up
The NHL has announced the two teams competing in the 10th Annual Winter Classic on New Year’s Day 2018. The league will return to the roots of the event, pitting the original host of the first Winter Classic in 2008, the Buffalo Sabres, against their in-state rival, the New York Rangers. It is the first Winter Classic to be held in New York City, and the Rangers will host the event at Citi Field in Queens, home of the New York Mets.
Ironically, the area of New York where the Mets play has been the rumored location of a possible new arena for the New York Islanders, the one New York team left out of the proceedings. Nonetheless, this will be a great event on January 1st, as hockey fans throughout the state and the Big Apple will flock to see the rivalry match-up between two exciting teams. The Sabres are a team in flux, but Jack Eichel and his teammates will have something to prove. Meanwhile, the Rangers want to defend their status as the best team in New York and will bring the King, Henrik Lundqvist, and a deep, talented line up to try to get the job done. Interestingly, due to an odd agreement regarding the tax status of Madison Square Garden, the Rangers will likely be the visitors and the Sabres the home team in the contest. The Rangers were the road team in each of their two outdoor games at Yankee Stadium in 2014.
Unfortunately, the timing of the announcement is not great, as the Rangers are in the middle of a do-or-die Game Six match-up with the Ottawa Senators and, at the time of this writing, are down 2-0. At least they will have something to look forward to to help get over the (potentially) disappointing loss.
Klefbom Out For Oilers
In a potentially devastating blow to their defense, Edmonton’s Oscar Klefbom will not participate in Game 6 in what is a must-win against Anaheim. He left warmups prior to puck-drop and did not return. Fellow defenseman Andrej Sekera was already ruled out earlier in the day. The defenseman has taken heavy assignments on the top pairing with Adam Larsson. Klefbom’s aggressive defending helps clear the slot and move the puck up ice. The swede’s offensive game had truly blossomed this year – he posted 12 goals and 26 assists during the regular season to lead the team from the blueline. Klefbom has been a workhorse for the young Oilers, and his loss will definitely alter matchups for coach Todd McLellan. For tonight however, McLellan has the benefit of last change at home.
Without Klefbom, Mark Fayne was initially slotted to take third pairing duties. Instead, Griffin Reinhart found his way back to the take the ice, after a late season call up. The once promising prospect has had his fair share of struggles in Alberta. His entry was a surprise to most, but Fayne’s rust likely became a factor. Fayne had not played an NHL contest since December and did not overly impress for the AHL Bakersfield Condors. Reinhart certainly has more upside, but also the potential to commit more egregious defensive errors. Edmonton will need to rely even more heavily upon Larsson, as well as ask Kris Russell and Darnell Nurse to substantially up their minutes and quality of play.
Eric Gryba will replace the injured Sekera and play alongside Reinhart.
Snapshots: Ducks, Blues, Goalie Interference
Anaheim could possibly see the return of two players this evening in their potentially series-deciding Game 6 against Edmonton. Forward Ondrej Kase has only played in two post-season games, but was a spark-plug for the Ducks when inserted. The 21 year-old had played parts of two seasons with the AHL affiliate San Diego Gulls before his call up and 53 games this season for Anaheim, tallying 5 goals and 10 assists. His quick ascension as a 205th overall pick has been impressive, if largely unheralded and under-the-radar. For a rookie, he has shown poise in his own end and adjusted well to the tempo of the playoffs. Although pointless, his possession metrics have been strong and he has skated well in his very sheltered ice time. It will be interesting to see if he will slot back in or if coach Randy Carlyle will opt for a more veteran presence.
Defenseman Kevin Bieksa is also an option on the backend, but with the emergence of Shea Theodore, it is difficult to justify his re-entry into the lineup. Although Bieksa boasts a wealth of playoff experience, his team is 3-0 in his absence this series. His skating has slowed to a crawl and he has been exploited repeatedly by the Oilers forward corps. Carlyle is known to like his veterans however, and it is possible he finds the ice tonight. Sami Vatanen could find himself in the pressbox if that were the case.
- TSN’s Frank Seravelli is predicting a huge discussion this offseason among general managers regarding the league’s goalie interference and coach’s challenge rules. Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli was obviously irritated in his post-game interview following yet another controversy in Game 5, as were numerous Edmonton players. Late in the third against Anaheim, Ryan Kesler appeared to hold goaltender Cam Talbot‘s right pad as the tying goal was shot through his five hole. Although a review was instituted, it quickly upheld the call of a “good goal”, to much befuddlement among experts and players. Anaheim went on to win the game. This issue has come up consistently throughout the season and its application does seem very obscure. Some slight bumps have overturned goals and completely hindering a goaltender from making a save has been allowed. Clarity on the league’s part as to what constitutes goalie interference would go a long way in alleviating these sorts of issues going forward, but some GMs may opt to abandon the challenge altogether and revert to the former system. For all its faults, the challenge has been particularly useful in attempting to relieve pressure from on-ice officials during fast-paced gameplay. In the case of offsides, for instance, there has been little disagreement on the positive impact reviews have had. Some argue that the interruptions to play are too extensive, but it seems unlikely the challenge will be entirely scrapped, but rather, modified.
- Folowing the St. Louis Blues’ playoff exit, attention will turn to off-season business. The team only has one UFA in forward Scottie Upshall, and three RFAs in forwards Nail Yakupov, Magnus Paajarvi, and defenseman Colton Parayko. Upshall is a good bet to head elsewhere, as his solid (if unremarkable) season will likely get him a spot on a team in more desperate need of role players. Yakupov could easily turn his sights to Russia if a larger contract offer comes his way and negotiations stall. There is no transfer agreement with the KHL however, so this will be an interesting case to watch. Parayko is absolutely deserving of a raise, as he has consistently contributed on the backend. In only his second NHL season, the 6’6″ tower has averaged over 23 minutes of ice per night and blocked shots with the best of them. He definitely has a bright future and it would be wise for St. Louis to lock him up long-term. It might be difficult to squeeze him under the cap at a higher, extended rate, however. Paajarvi will likely get a very marginal raise on a short-term contract extension. He only participated in 32 contests this season after being plagued by injury and splitting time with the Chicago Wolves of the AHL.
Capitals Have Four Of Top Eight Unrestricted Free Agents
The 2017 free agency class may not be the strongest, but the Washington Capitals have the most to gain (or more likely lose) if free agency doesn’t go their way. The Capitals, currently on the ropes, down 3-1, to the Pittsburgh Penguins (Game 5 tonight), have four of the top eight unrestricted free agents, according to Matt Larkin of the Hockey News, as he posts his Top-30 unrestricted free agents this summer.
Unlike previous years, Larkin writes that this year’s class falls short of firepower, which the scribe points out is bad news for the expansion Las Vegas Golden Knights, who get a 48-hour window to negotiate with any free agents before any other teams. Regardless, it’s the Capitals who will find themselves on the clock as defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk is listed as the number one free agent on the list, while winger T.J. Oshie is third. Defenseman Karl Alzner is ranked fifth, while veteran wing Justin Williams is eighth on their list.
Larkin adds that he believes the Capitals will only be able to ink two of those players and will be forced to let two go. Shattenkirk, who was acquired in a February trade from the St. Louis Blues for their playoff run, has struggled in the playoffs this year, but is listed first due to the fact that blueliners in the prime of their careers, who can play 20 minutes a night, are always rewarded. Whether Washington can keep him at a high price tag is the tough question.
The team is likely to do everything to sign Oshie, however. The 30-year-old winger has had a breakout season with Washington on the first line with Alex Ovechkin and Niklas Backstrom. He has tallied 59 regular-season goals in the two seasons he has played for the Capitals since being acquired by trade from the Blues.
The Capitals then have to look at Alzner, a rugged blueliner who at age 28, could get a large contract in a weak year of free agent defensemen, while Williams playoff success could make him a well-paid second-liner as well. The Capitals have to decide what priorities they have as it’s unlikely they can afford to keep all four players.
Montreal Canadiens veteran winger Alexander Radulov, who returned to the NHL last year after a long stint in the KHL, is ranked second on the list, although he has said he would like to resign with the Canadiens. Goaltender Ben Bishop is listed fourth on that free agent list and the 30-year-old netminder should be in high demand. Veterans Martin Hanzal (No. 6), Joe Thornton (No. 7), Radim Vrbata (No. 9) and Patrick Eaves (No. 10) round out the first ten on that list.
Snapshots: Bruins, World Championships, Oilers – Ducks
CSNNE’s Joe Haggerty cautions the Boston Bruins brass to stay away from free agency this offseason. He reports that Cam Neely doesn’t plan to make any signings, as he indicates that he doesn’t foresee the Bruins making any significant splashes in free agency. Haggerty sees this as a good thing, recalling the signings of both David Backes and Matt Beleskey, who he writes have struggled to live up to the pricey expectations. Though Neely defends both signings, he admits that both players have not played as the Bruins envisioned they would. Backes, according to Neely, struggled to acclimate at first in Boston while Beleskey has struggled to stay healthy. Both signings, Haggerty reports, should be reminders to approach the offseason with caution.
- It was a rough day for the American squad in the World Championship as they dropped their opener 2-1 to Germany. USA Today’s Kevin Allen writes that Thomas Greiss bacstopped the German victory, and only Connor Murphy managed to get a puck past him. Head coach Jeff Blashill didn’t seem too concerned, believing that a lack of familiarity with one another also played a role in the Americans’ struggles.
- TSN’s Frank Seravalli previews the Oilers-Ducks matchup tonight, reporting that Oilers forward Milan Lucic believes that it’s about “taking the play” to the Ducks. After dropping the first two games at home, Anaheim rallied back from a 2-0 series deficit to force the series into a best of three. Seravalli writes that Ryan Getzlaf has been the series’ most dominant “force,” notching 13 points in eight playoff games, including four points in the Ducks’ series tying victory on Wednesday. Also playing a role in the shift in series momentum? The Ducks’ smooth, puck moving defensemen. Oilers head coach Todd McLellan had this to say: I don’t think there’s a team that throws six skaters out there like that. It’s as good as there is in the [NHL] in my opinion. It’s not like you’re running up against somebody that’s a little slow in the retrieval or doesn’t have the ability to maneuver. All six do. Our work is cut out for us.
Jason Botterill Emerging As Front Runner For Sabres Job
After scoring a second interview with the Buffalo Sabres, the Buffalo News’ John Vogl believes that Jason Botterill is the favorite to replace Tim Murray as general manager. Vogl reports that the Buffalo News has yet to hear if another candidate has received a second interview. As far as this writing, only Botterill has visited with the Sabres twice. From Vogl:
Buffalo has held a second interview with Botterill for its GM job, according to multiple reports Wednesday. It’s not known how many of the seven candidates are getting second looks, but The Buffalo News has learned that one has not been contacted for another talk.
That would point to Botterill as a favorite.
Vogl goes on to list several reasons why the former Buffalo forward–and Michigan graduate–could end up getting the top job. First, with a background in hockey and a degree in economics, he’s become an “expert” in salary cap analysis. Working as an assistant general manager with defending champion Pittsburgh for over a decade, he has seen first hand how to juggle high salaries while filling in the lineup with talent at a cheaper price. In addition to being the GM of the AHL affiliate Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins, a team that has seen rousing success, Botterill has also helped the NHL front office with everything from scouting to player development. With a resume boasting so many rich assets, especially for a team that has seen considerable success for a decade, it’s obvious why Boterrill would be considered a “slam dunk” for the job.
The Sabres desperately need that success after being out of the playoffs for the past six seasons, despite drafting a dominant player in Jack Eichel back in 2015. The firings of Tim Murray and Dan Bylsma led many to conclude that it was Eichel’s doing, though that story was dismissed later by Eichel. But it still makes the next coach hire tricky.
Should it be Botterill, he’s already had considerable success hiring coaches, as it was his decision to bring Mike Sullivan aboard for Wilkes-Barre. Sullivan was promoted last season to the big club, and eventually led the Pens to a Stanley Cup.
If the past is any indication of future success, Buffalo may be in for a home run hire should it be Botterill.
Snapshots: GM Report Cards, Rangers, Nashville’s Defense
Hockey Graphs takes an in-depth look at the 31 general managers in the NHL (including Vegas and those who were recently let go–Dean Lombardi and Tim Murray) using a variety of different metrics. Leading the pack is Nashville’s Dave Poile, while the Canucks’ Jim Benning rounds out the list at number thirty-one. It’s a list that relies heavily on advanced metrics and other measurements, staying in line with Hockey Graph’s dedication to taking the emotion out of hockey analysis and instead, using the quantitative side (with a smattering of qualitative analysis) to create the list. Part one of the article helps make sense of how they came up with their rankings while giving a background to the metrics used.
- Newsday’s Steve Zipay reports that the Rangers aren’t looking too far ahead as they try to even up their series against Ottawa tomorrow night. After drubbing the Sens 4-1, the Rangers have an advantage as Bobby Ryan and Zack Smith are both injured, and the Sens will have to “alter” lines. Several Rangers were adamant that while falling into a 3-1 hole would be difficult to overcome, netminder Henrik Lundqvist said they must take it one game at a time. Zipay adds that though Rick Nash didn’t practice, he will absolutely be playing in Game 4.
- ESPN’s Chuck Gormley writes that its the Nashville blueline is wreaking havoc through these playoffs, pacing the Preds’ strong play and making a case for the organization’s first Stanley Cup. The team’s defenseman has eight goals and fourteen assists in just eight games, and according to Gormley, it’s looking more and more like the trade for P.K. Subban will tilt heavily in Nashville’s favor as the victor of the deal. Gormley highlights each player on the blueline, and writing that should the Predators continue on the path they are, it could be an epic matchup in the next round should Edmonton continue its ascent through the playoffs.
Red Wings Notes: Draft Targets, Svechnikov
Since the Red Wings will be picking in the top ten for the first time since taking Martin Lapointe in 1991, there are a number of theories as to who they might take. MLive’s Brendan Savage pencils in Russian Klim Kostin via a Bleacher Report article conducting mock drafts. Kostin is an 18-year-old winger who was limited this season due to a shoulder injury, but spent time with the KHL’s Dynamo Moscow. NHL Central Scouting has Kostin as its #1 skater while last July, the Hockey News’ Ryan Kennedy had a write up on Kostin, who opted to stay in Russia instead of playing in North America after being taken in the CHL Import Draft. Kennedy pegged Kostin as a top pick in this year’s draft, and though injury has kept Kostin down this season, the Red Wings seem to be line for a player who scouts peg as a strong scorer down the road.
- Fan Rag’s Franklin Steele penned a draft target piece about the Red Wings as well, listing defensemen Cale Makar, Jusso Valimaki, and forward Elias Pettersson as possible choices. Makar and Valimaki both fill a major need for Detroit which is a top defenseman, one they can grow into a desperately needed one or two d-man. Makar brings elite skating and skill. Valimaki scored at a point-per-game pace with the Tri-City Americans in the WHL, revealing another skill defenseman the Wings desperately crave. Should defensemen not be there, Steele believes Pettersson makes the most sense, should Owen Tippett or Gabe Vilardi not be available. A two way forward, Pettersson has what Steele calls the “fastest hands” of the prospects, but some red flags, including struggling during international play, could be a liability.
- Evgeny Svechnikov leads AHL affiliate Grand Rapids into its second round matchup against the Chicago Wolves in the Calder Cup playoffs writes the Detroit Free Press’ Helene St. James. The Griffins made quick work of Milwaukee, sweeping them en route to its tilt with the Wolves. Svechnikov, who many believe could crack the Red Wings roster out of training camp next season, is tied with four points in just three games. Fellow prospect Tyler Bertuzzi, also has four points. This builds on Svechnikov’s torrid second half, where he notched 34 points in 36 games, scoring 10 goals and adding 24 assists. St. James reports that head coach Todd Nelson calls Svechnikov a “great success story,” adding that the youngster spent a lot of time watching video to cut down on turnovers. The result, Nelson says, is a more complete game.