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NHL Snapshots: Engelland, Pastrnak, Eichel

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There were some confused faces a couple of months ago when fading veteran defenseman Deryk Engelland was one of the first players that the Vegas Golden Knights began to negotiate with when the team’s clock started to get the first-crack at negotiating with free agents. Afterall, the long-time veteran was never a blueliner to put up offensive numbers, but it was his defensive skills and speed that had begun to show signs of wear and tear in the last year or two.

Yet, the Golden Knights chose to ink the 35-year old to a one-year, $1MM deal instead of taking one of Calgary’s exposed players in the expansion draft. Perhaps the main reason is that Engelland has been an offseason resident of Las Vegas for the last 14 years, according to Alex Prewitt of Sports Illustrated. He initially spent two years in Las Vegas starting in 2003, playing for the ECHL’s Las Vegas Wranglers, where he eventually met his wife and then settled down in the city. His knowledge and experience with the fledgling sports city has proven valuable to many Vegas-bound players who are slowly arriving for the team’s inaugural season. The veteran has helped several players including defenseman Nate Schmidt and forward Erik Haula in getting settled before the season starts.

Engelland’s veteran presence and leadership skills should prove valuable to a stable of young defenseman such as Schmidt, Shea Theodore, Luca Sbisa, Brayden McNabb, Jonathon Merrill and Colin Miller amongst several others.

  • Lyle Richardson of The Hockey News writes that despite an earlier rumor that Boston’s David Pastrnak might be traded which was quickly shot down by Bruins’ general manager Don Sweeney, the team’s hopes of signing him to a six-year deal for $6MM annually is not going to happen. Edmonton Oilers’ Leon Draisaitl’s new eight-year, $64MM deal will only make negotiations with Pastrnak’s camp more challenging for the GM. Richardson writes that he believes Pastrnak’s camp may not ask for the $8.5MM AAV that Draisaitl received, but the Bruins must at least come up to a minimum of $7MM annually to get a long-term deal struck.
  • Speaking of long-term deals, Buffalo News’ Mike Harrington writes that phenom Jack Eichel has made it explicitly clear that he wants to sign a long-term deal to stay in Buffalo. The scribe also writes that both sides want the extension completed before training camp starts next month. “I’ve made it clear that I want to be a Sabre. I want to be in Buffalo when we start winning,” Eichel reiterated. “I want to reward the city. It’s been two great years. I don’t want to go anywhere else.” After recent extensions for Draisaitl and Connor McDavid, the team must figure out where Eichel’s contract should fit. Harrington suggests a deal around $9MM per year is what Buffalo hopes to ink him to. The 20-year old is coming off a second 24-goal season, but this year he did it in fewer games, having missed 21 games due to a high ankle sprain suffered at the beginning of the season.

Money To Move Out In Potential Pittsburgh Trade

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Often lost in the narrative chronicling the Penguins’ need for a third-line center is the fact that money will almost certainly head the other direction in any trade. Currently, Pittsburgh is a respectable $3.82 MM under the cap ceiling, but a few factors should be considered. Firstly, GM Jim Rutherford will almost surely allot at least $1 MM in space to acquire necessary rentals at the trade deadline. Second, his defensive and center depth is rather weak overall, so any move would likely not be the last before a post-season pursuit. Third, and perhaps most important, multiple contracts on the horizon will force uncomfortable decisions on wing and top-four defense.

With Matt Cullen departing for Minnesota, the Penguins’ third best center is Carter Rowney, just one season removed from AHL plug duty. Zach Aston-Reese could fill in temporarily, but it’s not ideal for his first professional season. The teams needs an upper-echelon third center option, and available options are supremely limited league-wide. Rutherford claimed to have half a dozen options in July, but with the summer expiring the options are far fewer. Although Rutherford is playing his cards close to his chest, it’s nearly inconceivable that the Penguins go into the new year without greater certainty at that position. A move needs to be made.

On defense, the team will need to determine the future of multiple players. It’s a fair assumption that the team will bank on the improved health of Norris-capable Kris Letang, for better or worse. Justin Schultz is also safe, as is the dependable Brian Dumoulin. In that fourth position, will the Pens re-sign impending UFA Ian Cole, or will his shot-blocking mentality start to show its toll? Is Olli Maatta worth $4.083 MM on a cash strapped team? Will Derrick Pouliot finally clean up his turnovers and make an impact in the Steel City and make either expendable? If Maatta’s skating doesn’t substantially improve, it’s a safe bet his contract will be the one off-loaded in any transaction, regardless of potential and upside.

On offense, the team will also need to make painful judgments. Patric Hornqvist is entering his final year of his contract, and at 31 years old, how will his body hold up multiple seasons into a new contract? Would Bryan Rust be able to replace his intangibles and hard-nosed offense at a fraction of the cost? His internal value is incredibly high, but he’s been relegated to a third-line role for the foreseeable future. Additionally, how devoted is Pittsburgh to the Phil Kessel model? It seems incredibly far-fetched that the team might consider moving Kessel, and they would undoubtedly receive a lesser player in any trade. Still, his $6.8 MM is a strain on the overall forward structure. With Jake Guentzel looking to land a substantial raise in two seasons, Kessel may not be entirely untouchable. Finally, could an accessory piece be moved off the roster as a throw-in for a potential elite third-line center? Impending RFA Scott Wilson isn’t the most glamorous of names, but he could easily earn decent money on his next contract and provide depth scoring for a re-building team. Carl Hagelin’s $4 MM was well above his current rate of production, and his blistering speed could be a tempting add for any squad.

In the final evaluation, Pittsburgh will almost certainly part with a roster player if they are to land a significant piece at the 3rd-line center position. Maatta seems most likely, and has for some time, but the selling teams will have a definite upper-hand in all negotiations, and the money complicates matters. The team has shown time and again it is willing to part with high-end draft picks, but any impending deal will necessarily be more intricate, considering the dearth of the organization’s prospect pool and other contributing factors.

Carolina Hoping For Darling Of A Season

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Carolina have been perceived as ’winners’ of this off-season, despite accomplishing only minor upgrades on paper. Outside of signing their own RFAs, Carolina acquired Marcus Kruger and Trevor van Riemsdyk in trades. In the free agent market, they acquired the services of senior Justin Williams via UFA. Although solid acquisitions, Carolina was nowhere near a contender prior to these transactions. So to what do we attribute the grand sense of optimism in and around Raleigh?

Summarizing Adam Gretz of NBC Sports: Scott Darling. Darling was acquired back in April after the Blackhawks were eliminated from playoff contention. Subsequently, the team relieved itself of Eddie Lack’s services by offloading him to the Calgary Flames, while relegating long-time Cane Cam Ward to the backup role. Gretz rightfully spotlights Darling as a potential saviour to the team in the short-term. Darling certainly has the credentials to backstop an NHL team, as his career .924 save percentage is quite impressive. Last year, he tallied a 18-5-5 record – he seems ready to perform. Gretz also showcases the fact that Carolina allowed the second-least amount of shots against in the past three seasons (behind Los Angeles), while the goals-against-average was on the lower end of the middle pack. He points to the success of Carey Price on a middling Canadiens squad as rationale to hope for a resurgence in the standings.

Although Gretz is correct in assuming Carolina will likely improve, it doesn’t necessarily ensure a playoff berth. In the Metropolitan division, even the Islanders’ 94 points were insufficient to land the team Spring hockey. Four teams (Washington, Pittsburgh, Columbus, NY Rangers) all finished above 100 points. The Hurricanes finished with 87. Although Victor Rask and Sebastien Aho are nearly certain to have improved outputs, the competition remains fierce. The team will need to avoid multiple game losing streaks and start the season off on the correct foot. Although impressive down the season’s stretch, Carolina couldn’t clinch their first berth since 2009. If coach Bill Peters is to remain in his current position, he will need quick, inspiring success in 2017.

Although an 8-point improvement is certainly within the realm of possibility, Carolina will need to rely on health and the steady progression of its young players. Elias Lindholm and Teuvo Teravainen could both push for 20 goals, and Aho could easily become a star. If tides turn for the worse, however, expect GM Ron Francis to be proactive in his approach, despite the re-assuring words provided to Chip Alexander of the News & Observer. Francis certainly has room to be active on the trade market as well, with 8 upcoming free agents (4 UFA, 4 RFA) in 2018, and a wealth of space to maneuver. With an astounding $17.2 MM in space, it will nevertheless be difficult for Francis to successfully lobby for the acquisition of a large contract, considering the tenuous owner situation. Still, ownership should allow its GM marginal leeway in the hopes of catapulting the Canes into the the post-season. If Francis does go on the hunt for additional roster players, it would likely take the form of additional scoring or a veteran defender. Those first few months in Raleigh very well could determine the season’s trajectory, so those who are hungry for movement might look toward the tar heel state for early action.

An Early Look At The 2018 Draft Class

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Many hockey fans have had limited exposure to the 2018 draft class, outside some highlights of the Summer Showcase. The Hockey News’ Ryan Kennedy breaks down his early projections for the top prospects who will be eligible next summer. His top five shouldn’t surprise any who have been paying attention, but it’s a nice early introduction to the best of the best.

Rasmus Dahlin – D – Frolunda (SHL J20)

As of now, Dahlin is the man to beat for #1. Dahlin is drawing Erik Karlsson comparisons already, which is a tough benchmark for any 17 year old. Coming through the neutral zone, he weaves himself past traffic when there simply doesn’t appear to be a lane. His passes are crisp and accurate, and he isn’t afraid to go to high-scoring areas of the ice. His size at 6’2 makes him even more appealing, as he is not an easy horse to down once he’s achieved full gallop. Dahlin will need to continue to display flashes of offensive brilliance while rounding out his defensive game, but he’s essentially a lock to go top-three.

Andrei Svechnikov – RW – Barrie (OHL)

Svechnikov’s hands can make your jaw drop. Following in a long line of talented Russian scorers, his finesse sets him apart from the rest of his age group. He has a decent element of speed to his game and always finds himself open in high-scoring areas. In Barrie, he’ll need to round out his two-way ability, but barring major setbacks he should produce. Comparisons to other Russian picks will be inevitable (Nail Yakupov) but he seems to think the game at an elite level already. He also doesn’t shy away from cycling when necessary, and has more tricks up his sleeve than a simple rush-and-shoot mentality.

Joe Veleno – C – St John (QJMHL)

Veleno exudes passion, as anyone who witnessed the Ivan Hlinka tournament can attest. He captained the Canadian team to gold in that tourney, and looked like quite the leader in the process. His passes are already NHL level, and he has a sneaky accurate shot. He sees the ice well and coordinates plays well in any situation. His footwork is powerful and is also sure to impress. Veleno was even granted “exceptional status” by Team Canada and his body of work so far suggests it was not undeserved.

Adam Boqvist – D – Brynas (SHL J20)

For a defender, Boqvist can really fire the puck. His wrister is accurate and deadly if not respected. He skates with impressive speed and his edgework is clean and powerful. You can absolutely envision Boqvist quarterbacking an NHL powerplay in a few years’ time. He’s not the flashiest player on the list, to be sure, but he is effective in his straight-ahead style. His passing is impressive, but he might need to pick his spots on the attack a little better. Another player in the Karlsson mold, he should stand out enough to overcome his 5’11 stature.

Brady Tkachuk – LW – Boston U. (NCAA)

This player is a bit of a throwback to days when power forwards actually challenged for NHL roster spots regularly. Like his older brother, Calgary’s Matt Tkachuk, Brady is no pushover. At 6’2 he can hold off opponents while driving his way to the front of the net. His shot isn’t overly remarkable, but he always finds a way to hit twine. His deking ability is enough to drop defenders to their knees, and he has the vision to make special things happen. Tkachuk has committed to B.U. and it will be interesting to see how the rest of his game rounds out in the NCAA.

Tavares To Toronto Highly Unlikely

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Although it seems to occur every time a high-profile free-agent could hit the market, Toronto media have once again conjured a dream of landing a superstar. John Tavares is experiencing major difficulty in coming to terms with the New York Islanders, primarily because of the uncertainty of their arena situation. The team needs to prove that they are both competitive and can secure a home for the foreseeable future. Enter Toronto, who believes that the contract negotiation difficulty automatically propels them into a top-3 competitor for Tavares’ services. If this story may sound familiar, that’s because it occurred just last off-season when Steven Stamkos was stalling his new deal with Tampa Bay.

Toronto inarguably is in a far superior negotiating position than they were in 2016. They’ve made the playoffs and took the Washington Capitals to their limits, and flaunt a young core who established itself as dominant quite before most believed possible. Given another season of success, the Leafs could be serious contenders for any UFA on the market. That said, a Tavares signing would be absurdly difficult and ultimately impractical for a multitude of reasons. The Leafs’ fanbase is already (rightfully) fretting over the difficulty of keeping Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews, and William Nylander together while staying under the cap ceiling. Each player will command hefty money on long-term deals, and the best case scenario (cap-wise) is that one of the three might have a “down” statistical year.

Even ignoring those future contracts, Toronto already made matters more complicated by signing Patrick Marleau to a 3-year contract worth $6.25 MM AAV. Assuming that the team keeps one or two of James van Riemsdyk, Leo Komarov, and Tyler Bozak (all UFAs in 2018), they will have precious room to devote to Tavares beyond 2018-19. After that point, Matthews and Marner will both be on new deals with heavy cap hits. Craig Button of TSN suggests that the Leafs could offer Tavares a one-year deal, but there is little to no security in such an arrangement. If the Islanders are unable to move Tavares or simply fall short of securing a new contract, Tavares will be likely seek a long-term arrangement. His primary stated concern at present is security, and a one-year contract elsewhere certainly doesn’t achieve said goal.

By signing Marleau, the writing for Toronto fans should have been clear and visible. Still, the Tavares hope persists. It’s not impossible that Tavares could sign a long-term contract in Toronto, but it would take a major roster overhaul to achieve. One of Marner or Nylander would necessarily need to depart, and the amount of money spent on the offense would only increase further. It seems likely that GM Lou Lamoriello will simply build upon the core that has been so successful without gutting the progress made. It would be unrealistic to expect Lamoriello to not at least inquire about Tavares if he indeed hits unrestricted free agency, but it would require a major organizational commitment without any real certainty in the matter. Tavares will receive a long-term contract, whether it is from New York or another franchise, but as of now the Leafs are not in a position to extend such an offer.

Nugent-Hopkins Watch Might Start Early

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With the recent signings of Leon Draisaitl ($8.5 MM AAV), and Connor McDavid ($12.5 MM), there are those around the league who are anxious to see how GM Peter Chiarelli will deal with the inevitable cap crunch on the horizon. David Staples of the Edmonton Journal contends that the possibility of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins being moved in the short-term is overblown. That said, it stands to reason that Nugent-Hopkins will be a focus of trade speculation for a long while. Milan Lucic is the only other forward with as heavy a cap hit, also at $6 MM AAV, but he has a no-movement clause to accompany his deal. If money is moving out, Nugent-Hopkins could be the man in the cross-hairs.

Staples provides a useful breakdown of salary for the next three seasons, and shows how minimal that cap crunch might end up being. Still, it’s expected that Edmonton will attempt to build on its successful season and attempt to compete this year. If they want to add this season, they can certainly do so at the deadline. With their current $8.33 MM in space they’ll have over $30 MM in deadline space, so it seems reasonable to anticipate short-term buys. That said, any additions will complicate the cap picture in 2018-19.  They’ve already moved multiple pieces who initially had great value, notably Taylor Hall, Nail Yakupov, and Justin Schultz, and received little in return, with the exception of Adam Larsson (for Hall). It seems unlikely that Chiarelli would risk having another top pick and valuable asset thrive elsewhere just in the name of saving a few dollars.

The trade of Jordan Eberle certainly alleviated some of the pressure that Nugent-Hopkins is bound to face, but that may only be temporary. His 18 goals and 25 assists in a full season are a sharp decline from even his rookie totals. For Nugent-Hopkins to cement his place on a team with two momentous contracts, his production will need to improve dramatically. He’ll certainly see more scrutiny this campaign if he struggles for long stretches, as the concern over money will only make fans and reporters more critical. If the 24 year-old were to be traded, it would most certainly be next summer, when the crunch really starts to surface as McDavid’s hit kicks in. Even after another season under 50 points, Nugent-Hopkins would likely bring in a sizable haul via trade, which might fill out the rest of the forward corps at a cheaper price in Edmonton. Thankfully for the Oil, the organization has multiple players who can slot in at center if necessary – Draisaitl, Mark Letestu, Jussi Jokinen, and Ryan Strome all have experience up the middle and could slot in after McDavid. Nugent-Hopkins will have to stand well above his competition at camp and throughout the year to prove his long-term value to the organization. If it’s another season of being outclassed by the likes of Letestu, he could find himself in the midst of intense speculation.

The Oldest NHL Rosters, Looking Forward

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The average age of a team is a stat which gets thrown around rarely, but it can be quite telling when it comes to salary cap planning and drafting. The youngest teams tend to have exceptionally talented stars under the age of 25 (Oilers, Blue Jackets), or find themselves out of contention entirely, banking on the rebuilding process (Arizona, Colorado). At the opposite end of the spectrum are the most aged teams, some past their windows of contention and almost all struggling with an identity crisis. However, there are outliers in the group – for instance, Florida is the 5th oldest team at present, while most of the top talent is still in their primes. Still, the Ottawa Senators, Detroit Red Wings, and Los Angeles Kings all have Father Time looming ominously above their franchises. All of these teams could re-structure themselves and find themselves back on the right track, if their drafting improves and their general managers cut loose harmful contracts while able.

Ottawa Senators

The most recently successful of the three, Ottawa fans likely aren’t expecting another Conference Finals finish. The team lost Marc Methot in expansion, and their largest move in the off-season was the signing of 35-year-old Johnny Oduya. With an average age of 29.73, they should be see the effects of age start to impact their performance. Although 36 year-old Craig Anderson was pivotal in their 2016-17 success, he has one year remaining on his contract and Marcus Hogberg will be looking for an opening in the mid-term future. If Anderson’s workload drastically increases, he could find difficulty in maintaining his above average numbers, and that could spell trouble. By re-signing the steady Mike Condon, however, they at least alleviated that concern.

The team had a chance to unload 30 year-old Bobby Ryan to Vegas, but opted against it. They’ll now have his contract on the books until he’s 35. 36 year-old Alex Burrows has two years remaining on his deal, while 32 year-old Clarke MacArthur has three. 32 year-old defenseman Dion Phaneuf has hard mileage on him with his physical style of play, and has four years remaining on his deal. Outside of Colin White, Cody Ceci, and Fredrik Claesson, everyone on the roster is over the age of 25. If Logan Brown pans out, he should go a long way in rejuvenating the forward corps. Filip Chlapik of Charlottestown is certainly no slouch either. On the defensive side, Thomas Chabot has the talent to make a significant impact, but there’s a logjam of older veterans in his way. While Ottawa obviously doesn’t need to entertain a full rebuild, they need to allow their prospects a chance to make the NHL squad and embrace a youth infusion. Signing the Oduyas of the world only prolongs that necessity.

Detroit Red Wings

The Red Wings have paid out far too much money to mediocre talent, and it has been death by a thousand papercuts for Ken Holland. The team now finds itself $3.9 MM over the salary ceiling, desperately trying to find a way to shed salary and slip under before year’s start while still signing RFA Andreas Athanasiou. This is another franchise who opted to go with an established veteran on the backend this summer, Trevor Daley (33), when the team was in desperate need of younger legs. The team finds itself second oldest league-wide, with an average age of 29.27. Part of the reason Detroit consistently finds itself among the oldest franchises in the league is that the organization places extreme value on fully maturing its prospects, usually in the AHL, before regularly dressing for the big club. This is a fine ideal, but it usually results in more expensive contracts for RFAs, as the totals posted by well-groomed players are usually superior to those of untested rookies. In the Salary Cap era, having productive players on ELCs is a huge contributor to success.

Henrik Zetterberg, 36, has four more years on his deal, and logs exceptionally taxing minutes. Johan Franzen, 37,  is already burning cap space, as his LTIR will be on the books for another 3 seasons. Once the year begins, its not a great issue, but it complicates matters in the off-season. Frans Nielsen, 33, is no spring chicken himself and also takes on greater responsibility in Detroit than he ever did in Long Island. With 5 years remaining on his deal, it begs the question of whether he will be performing at a Selke-caliber when he’s turning 38. Only Xavier Ouellet and Danny DeKeyser are under the age of 30 on defense, with Daley, Mike Green, Niklas Kronwall, and Jonathan Ericsson all having no-trade clauses. The Wings have some enticing prospects on the horizon, but with so many immovable and long-term contracts, it will be difficult for them to find places on the team in the short-term. Dylan Larkin and Anthony Mantha are both ready for larger roles, but true talents like Michael Rasmussen should get the opportunity to shine in a top-six role. Detroit is in no position to seriously compete, and perhaps it’s time to embrace the necessary partial rebuild. Trading some of the dead-weight contracts would be a solid start.

Los Angeles Kings

Los Angeles is only a few years removed from a Stanley Cup win, but it seems like ages past. They have the third-oldest roster on paper at the moment, with an average age of 29.14. The Kings don’t actually have any players over the age of 35, so in that sense, they’ve avoided serious headaches. Marian Gaborik (35) and Mike Cammalleri (35) are the team’s greybeards, and while both had down seasons, they could each realistically rebound under new leadership. The problem for Los Angeles is that they don’t have any bonafide prospects pushing the issue. Adrian Kempe is the surest best to make the roster this year, as he could slot into a bottom-six role quite easily. Defenseman Paul LaDue should see his fair share of work this year as well. Beyond that, they’ll have no players playing on entry-level contracts. It’s simply unsustainable to draft in such a poor manner for so long, and Los Angeles is seeing the hurt now. If Jonny Brodzinski, a former 5th-rounder, could make the leap permanent, it would be a great help.

The Kings are over $6.8 MM under the cap ceiling, so unlike the Wings and Senators the franchise isn’t overly concerned about money. Dustin Brown’s contract is particularly egregious, but there’s not much to be done about it. Los Angeles can still turn things around, but they’ll need more recent draft picks to find a way to contribute going forward. Gabriel Viladri will head back to Windsor for the season, but he could inject a serious shot of youthful speed and creativity into the roster in 2018-19. There’s just not a ton of excitement when it comes to Kings prospects, and considering that Vilardi was the first first-round pick since 2014 (Kempe), it’s easy to see why. Still, Tanner Pearson (25) and Tyler Toffoli (25) should have more prominent offensive roles this year, while some older defensemen were abandoned, so management seems to be righting the ship.

Snapshots: Hanifin, Jagr, Ferland

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While the Hurricanes have moved quickly to ink blueliners Brett Pesce (six years. $4.05MM AAV) and Jaccob Slavin (seven years, $5.3MM) to long-term extensions this summer, it doesn’t appear the same will be happening for defenseman Noah Hanifin in the near future.  Speaking with Chip Alexander of the News & Observer, GM Ron Francis noted that the team is open to working on an extension but there have yet to be any negotiations on a new deal with his agent.

Hanifin has spent the last two years in Carolina after they drafted him fifth overall in 2015.  While his offensive numbers went up slightly last season (from 22 to 29 points), his defensive game still needs improvement and head coach Bill Peters wasn’t comfortable handing him a higher workload in his sophomore campaign as he averaged 17:55 per night, one second more than his average in 2015-16.  Accordingly, it’s easy to understand why the Hurricanes would like to get something done but from Hanifin’s perspective, it may make more sense for him to wait it out in the hopes of a big year before he hits restricted free agency.

Elsewhere around the league:

  • The Kings are not interested in signing unrestricted free agent winger Jaromir Jagr, GM Rob Blake noted to reporters, including LA Kings Insider Jon Rosen, at a State of the Franchise meeting. Los Angeles has been fairly quiet with their offseason movement up front as Mike Cammalleri is the only addition of note among the forwards.  Jagr’s 30 assists and 46 points would have ranked third on the Kings in scoring last season but his lack of speed appears to have really hindered his market this summer.
  • Despite the fact that Flames winger Micheal Ferland averaged less than 12 minutes per game last season, head coach Glen Gulutzan envisions Ferland as Calgary’s top-line right winger heading into training camp, notes Wes Gilbertson of the Calgary Sun. [Related: Calgary’s Depth Chart]  The 25-year-old is coming off a career season offensively with 15 goals and 25 points and avoided arbitration with the team last month, agreeing to a two-year, $3.5MM contract.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Toronto Maple Leafs

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Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2017-18 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Toronto Maple Leafs

 Current Cap Hit: $77,479,167 (over the $75MM Upper Limit and using offseason LTIR)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Mitch Marner (Two years remaining, $894K)
F Auston Matthews (Two years remaining, $925K)
F William Nylander (One year remaining, $894K)

Potential Bonuses

Marner: $850K
Matthews: $2.85MM
Nylander: $850K

Total: $4.55MM

To put it lightly, this is quite the formidable group of top youngsters that have already established themselves as high quality NHL players with more improvements expected.  It’s great news for their current cap situation as those bargains have allowed the team to keep the rest of the previous core together while having those three under control for at least five more years each through restricted free agency makes them the envy of many teams around the league.

Nov 5, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs forward Auston Matthews (34) and forward Mitchell Marner (16) celebrate a win over the Vancouver Canucks at Air Canada Centre. Toronto defeated Vancouver 6-3. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY SportsHowever, the inevitable downside to this is that all three players will be in line for massive raises at the expiration of their current deals.  The prospect of all of them hitting their bonuses is very much realistic which creates the potential of having to use the bonus cushion once again and eat the cap charge in 2018-19.  They’re doing this now for 2016-17’s bonuses to the tune of over $5MM.

It wouldn’t be surprising at all to see GM Lou Lamoriello try to at least sign one of them to an early extension.  Of the three, only Nylander is eligible to do so now as Matthews and Marner can’t sign until next July.  ‘Cost certainty’ is viewed by some as an evil term in the NHL given how often it was uttered during the 2004-05 lockout but Toronto undoubtedly needs to have a sense of how much these three will cost in the years to come to know what they can and can’t do with some of their other players.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Tyler Bozak ($4.2MM, UFA)
D Connor Carrick ($750K, RFA)
F Eric Fehr ($2MM, UFA)
F Joffrey Lupul ($5.25MM, UFA)
F Leo Komarov ($2.95MM, UFA)
F Josh Leivo ($613K, RFA)
D Martin Marincin ($1.25MM, RFA)
F Dominic Moore ($1MM, UFA)
F Ben Smith ($650K, UFA)
F Nikita Soshnikov ($737K, RFA)
F James van Riemsdyk ($4.25MM, UFA)

Lupul is one of two players that are likely LTIR-bound (they haven’t said which one was already placed there in July).  It’s safe to say he won’t be back.  Fehr was added in a deal that basically bought Toronto a fourth round pick and he’s not in their long-term plans.  After that though, things get interesting.  Van Riemsdyk is coming off of a career year and if he can even come close to repeating that production this coming season, he’ll likely be one of the most coveted forwards in free agency next summer.  Bozak has settled in nicely as a quality second line center and he too will be in line for a raise.  Komarov has shown that he can play a rugged checking game and chip in offensively.  He too will attract plenty of interest if he hits the open market.  Leivo played sparingly last year but made an impact when he was in the lineup; it will be interesting to see if they can find more of a regular spot for him this season.  Soshnikov could be up-and-down thanks to his waiver exemption and his next contract shouldn’t be a big jump while Moore and Smith are likely one year placeholders.

On the back end, if Marincin stays healthy for the full season and continues to hold his own averaging around 18 minutes a night, he’ll be in better shape to command a bigger deal with arbitration eligibility.  Carrick rates well in some of the advanced stats but unless he takes a step forward in terms of his production, he’ll likely have to settle for another fairly cheap deal next summer.

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Atlantic Notes: Butcher, Phaneuf, Rask

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While at the moment there are 10-12 teams interested in the services of free agent blueliner Will Butcher, the Canadiens are not among them, his agent Brian Bartlett told TVA Sports’ Louis-Andre Lariviere.  After turning over their top three defenders on the left side this summer, Montreal had previously been speculated on as a potential landing place.

Bartlett indicated that the plan is to whittle the list down to a shortlist of three or four teams and then Butcher will visit those cities.  He hopes to have a contract in place for the Hobey Baker Award winner by the end of next week.

The Blue Jackets, Devils, Golden Knights, Penguins, and Sabres are among the teams that are known to have shown interest while the Blackhawks, Maple Leafs, Flyers, Red Wings, and Sharks are ones that at least previously have yet to get involved in discussions.  Bartlett added that there are a few Canadian-based teams that have expressed an interest in Butcher although he declined to specify which ones.

Other notes from the Atlantic:

  • Although part of the reason that the Senators were entertaining offers for blueliner Dion Phaneuf prior to expansion was so that they could protect Marc Methot, Ottawa is still open to dealing the veteran defender, Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch noted in a radio interview with TSN 1200. Phaneuf still has four years left on his contract with a $7MM cap hit with a no-move clause and Garrioch adds that he doesn’t expect a trade to happen.  The Kings had some interest in the 32-year-old earlier in the summer but were asking Ottawa to take an onerous contract (believed to be winger Marian Gaborik) in return.
  • The Bruins would like to scale back the workload for goaltender Tuukka Rask this season, GM Don Sweeney admitted to Kevin Paul Dupont of the Boston Globe. Rask has played at least 64 games in each of the past three seasons and has shown signs of being banged up at the end of those.  Sweeney would like to see Boston’s backup play somewhere around 25 games in a perfect world but backup Anton Khudobin and prospect Zane McIntyre both struggled with their consistency in 2016-17 and if that carries over into this coming season, it may be difficult to give Rask the type of rest they’d like.

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