Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2017-18 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Current Cap Hit: $77,479,167 (over the $75MM Upper Limit and using offseason LTIR)
Entry-Level Contracts
F Mitch Marner (Two years remaining, $894K)
F Auston Matthews (Two years remaining, $925K)
F William Nylander (One year remaining, $894K)
Potential Bonuses
Marner: $850K
Matthews: $2.85MM
Nylander: $850K
Total: $4.55MM
To put it lightly, this is quite the formidable group of top youngsters that have already established themselves as high quality NHL players with more improvements expected. It’s great news for their current cap situation as those bargains have allowed the team to keep the rest of the previous core together while having those three under control for at least five more years each through restricted free agency makes them the envy of many teams around the league.
However, the inevitable downside to this is that all three players will be in line for massive raises at the expiration of their current deals. The prospect of all of them hitting their bonuses is very much realistic which creates the potential of having to use the bonus cushion once again and eat the cap charge in 2018-19. They’re doing this now for 2016-17’s bonuses to the tune of over $5MM.
It wouldn’t be surprising at all to see GM Lou Lamoriello try to at least sign one of them to an early extension. Of the three, only Nylander is eligible to do so now as Matthews and Marner can’t sign until next July. ‘Cost certainty’ is viewed by some as an evil term in the NHL given how often it was uttered during the 2004-05 lockout but Toronto undoubtedly needs to have a sense of how much these three will cost in the years to come to know what they can and can’t do with some of their other players.
One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level
F Tyler Bozak ($4.2MM, UFA)
D Connor Carrick ($750K, RFA)
F Eric Fehr ($2MM, UFA)
F Joffrey Lupul ($5.25MM, UFA)
F Leo Komarov ($2.95MM, UFA)
F Josh Leivo ($613K, RFA)
D Martin Marincin ($1.25MM, RFA)
F Dominic Moore ($1MM, UFA)
F Ben Smith ($650K, UFA)
F Nikita Soshnikov ($737K, RFA)
F James van Riemsdyk ($4.25MM, UFA)
Lupul is one of two players that are likely LTIR-bound (they haven’t said which one was already placed there in July). It’s safe to say he won’t be back. Fehr was added in a deal that basically bought Toronto a fourth round pick and he’s not in their long-term plans. After that though, things get interesting. Van Riemsdyk is coming off of a career year and if he can even come close to repeating that production this coming season, he’ll likely be one of the most coveted forwards in free agency next summer. Bozak has settled in nicely as a quality second line center and he too will be in line for a raise. Komarov has shown that he can play a rugged checking game and chip in offensively. He too will attract plenty of interest if he hits the open market. Leivo played sparingly last year but made an impact when he was in the lineup; it will be interesting to see if they can find more of a regular spot for him this season. Soshnikov could be up-and-down thanks to his waiver exemption and his next contract shouldn’t be a big jump while Moore and Smith are likely one year placeholders.
On the back end, if Marincin stays healthy for the full season and continues to hold his own averaging around 18 minutes a night, he’ll be in better shape to command a bigger deal with arbitration eligibility. Carrick rates well in some of the advanced stats but unless he takes a step forward in terms of his production, he’ll likely have to settle for another fairly cheap deal next summer.
Two Years Remaining
D Jake Gardiner ($4.05MM, UFA)
D Ron Hainsey ($3MM, UFA)
G Curtis McElhinney ($850K, UFA)
Gardiner continues to play a bigger role each season and is coming off a career year with 42 points and a 21:32 ATOI. His contract raised a few eyebrows when it was signed but now it’s a nice bargain for at least two more years. Hainsey was brought in to stabilize the back end and he has shown he can still log big minutes. It sounds like he’s going to get a chance to start on their top pairing so expectations will be somewhat high.
As for McElhinney, he did enough after joining the team in a midseason waiver claim to earn an extension. The contract is cheap enough that he can be buried in the minors without any cap charge should a potential upgrade present itself or if he gets off to a slow start again in 2017-18.
Three Years Remaining
F Nathan Horton ($5.3MM, UFA)
F Patrick Marleau ($6.25MM, UFA)
F Matt Martin ($2.5MM, UFA)
Horton is the other LTIR-bound Leaf and he has all but announced his retirement already. With his contract being uninsured, they’re not going to be able to find another spot for him so they’ll just have to eat his deal. Marleau’s addition came as a surprise to many after spending nearly two decades in San Jose. He’s still a legitimate top-six forward and should give an already strong offense that much more of a boost. The third year may wind up being an issue down the road but for the short-term, he’ll be a key addition. Martin won’t bring much offensively to the table but is one of the NHL’s most physical players and is more than willing to drop the gloves when necessary. Because of the lack of offensive upside, his deal may be somewhat hard to move but at the same time, they want him around in the hopes of protecting their young stars.
Four Or More Years Remaining
G Frederik Andersen ($5MM through 2020-21)
F Zach Hyman ($2.25MM through 2020-21)
F Nazem Kadri ($4.5MM through 2021-22)
D Morgan Rielly ($5MM through 2021-22)
D Nikita Zaitsev ($4.5MM through 2023-24)
Kadri really broke through last season, scoring 32 times despite only ever hitting the 20-goal mark once in the past. In doing so, he has solidified himself as a part of their core for the long-term and if he can continue to produce around that pace moving forward, it will wind up as a team-friendly contract given the demand for top-six pivots at the moment. Hyman spent the majority of last season alongside Matthews and while he won’t be a big scorer at the NHL level, his all-around game clearly endeared himself to head coach Mike Babcock.
While plenty of players stood out last year, Rielly wasn’t one of them. That isn’t to say that he played particularly poorly but the team was undoubtedly hoping that he would continue to improve. He will once again enter the season as their top defender and they’ll be expecting big things from him. As for Zaitsev, he became an impact player right away, earning that seven-year extension before he even finished his first NHL season. If he can continue to capably hold down a top-four spot, it shouldn’t be a bad contract over the long haul.
Andersen’s first season with the Maple Leafs was a strong one. He’s being paid less than some of the more prominent names out there and as Toronto’s (mostly) young defense corps continues to improve, it stands to reason that his numbers should get a bit better as well, giving them an above average goalie at a bit of a bargain price.
Buyouts
D Jared Cowen ($750K in 2017-18)
D Tim Gleason ($1.33MM in 2017-18)
F Mikhail Grabovski (Compliance buyout so no cap hit, payments to be made through 2020-21)
Retained Salary Transactions
F Phil Kessel ($1.2MM through 2021-22)
Still To Sign
Best Value: Matthews
Worst Value: Horton (due to his deal being uninsured), Fehr among active players
Looking Ahead
Get used to hearing Toronto and ‘tight to the cap’ in the same sentence for a while. They’ll be okay once the season starts and in-season LTIR opens up a bit of space but most of that will go to Brown; there isn’t going to be a lot of flexibility. The first of their major new contracts will come next summer while the new deals to Matthews and Marner could cost the team an extra $15MM (or more) the following year.
The Leafs are fairly well positioned from the standpoint that they have a lot of expiring deals next July so they shouldn’t have to trade away any of their signed players in the offseason to free up room. But as far as having the best collection of talent available goes though, 2017-18 may be their best chance to really contend as they’ll have to let some of their current veterans go to accommodate the big raises that are on the horizon.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.