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Expansion Primer: St. Louis Blues

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We’re continuing to break down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft, coming up next week: which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

The St. Louis Blues did pretty well for themselves at the 2016 Trade Deadline when they swapped Kevin Shattenkirk for a package including prospect Zach Sanford and a first-round pick only to make just as far in the postseason as the Washington Capitals, the conference semifinals. Not only did they get value for an impending free agent, but they also acquired pieces that didn’t effect the expansions process, while additionally simplifying their decision on defense. Armed with a large core of forwards in their prime and the likes of Sanford and other ready to replace any potential losses up front to lower-tier players, the Blues are in pretty good shape heading into the Expansion Draft.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards
Vladimir Tarasenko, Paul Stastny, Alexander Steen, Jaden Schwartz, Jori Lehtera, Patrik Berglund, David Perron, Vladimir Sobotka, Ryan Reaves, Dmitrij Jaskin, Kyle Brodziak, Magnus Paajarvi, Nail Yakupov, Jacob Doty, Landon Ferraro, Jordan Caron, Ty Rattie

Defense
Alex Pietrangelo, Jay Bouwmeester, Carl Gunnarsson, Robert Bortuzzo, Joel Edmundson, Petteri Lindbohm

Goaltender
Jake Allen, Carter Hutton, Jordan Binnington

Notable Exemptions

Colton Parayko, Robby Fabbri, Zachary Sanford, Ivan Barbashev, Jordan Schmaltz

Key Decisions

Not many decisions to be made for St. Louis. In net, Jake Allen is the present and future and is a lock for protection. On defense, captain Alex Pietrangelo and veteran Jay Bouwmeester make up one of the top pairs in the league and are signed long-term. They’re not going anywhere. With young stalwart Colton Parayko exempt, his equally youthful pair Joel Edmundson, who is fresh off a strong sophomore campaign, is an easy choice for the third and final defensive spot.

Where things get a little less clear is at forward. Superstar Vladimir Tarasenko, line mate Jaden Schwartz, and long-time Blues Alexander Steen and Patrik Berglund, both of whom signed extensions this past season, are all as good as protected. After returning to St. Louis and having an outstanding season, David Perron is also likely safe, as is veteran leader Paul Stastny. Barring an unexpected decision regarding any of those six players, that leaves just one forward spot left. Heading into the 2016-17 season, that core also included center Jori Lehtera. However, the 29-year-old played in just 64 games this season scoring only 22 points, a major drop-off from the year before and a second straight season with steep decline. The salary cap-strapped Blues might not mind losing Lehtera and his two remaining seasons with a $4.7MM cap hit. After all, St. Louis did push to bring Vladimir Sobotka back from the KHL, a task they finally accomplished toward the end of the season, and Sobotka rewarded them with six points in 11 playoff games. It would certainly be strange to work so hard to bring the two-way ace back from Russia just to lose him to the Golden Knights for nothing. However, there are a handful of young players that St. Louis will have to consider as well, namely Magnus Paajarvi, Dmitrij Jaskin, and Nail Yakupov. Paajarvi has been in the NHL for seven years, but is still just 25. He’s never been able to carve out a full-time role with the Blue and Gold, but perhaps the team sees something in him. The homegrown Jaskin has also struggled to be a regular player for the Blues, but has certainly shown upside from time to time and only recently turned 24. Lastly, Yakupov, a former #1 overall pick, was acquired just last off-season from the Edmonton Oilers, but was never given a real role in St. Louis this year. Yakupov has a ton of potential, but the Blues are chasing a championship and may not be concerned with waiting around to see if he pans out at the cost of a true contributor.

Projected Protection List

Scheme: 7F/3D/1G

Forwards

Vladimir Tarasenko
Jaden Schwartz
Alexander Steen
David Perron
Paul Stastny
Patrik Berglund
Vladimir Sobotka

Defensemen

Alex Pietrangelo
Jay Bouwmeester
Joel Edmundson

Goalie

Jake Allen

It would simply be too strange to let a valuable, versatile player like Sobotka go after just re-gaining his talents. Vegas GM George McPhee would surely jump at the opportunity to add a player with Sobotka’s skills to his new team. There is less certainty surrounding a player on the decline in Lehtera or unproven commodities like Paajarvi, Jaskin, or Yakupov. For the Knights though, certainty is a luxury they can’t afford, as they will surely pick up several project players. Lehtera could provide some veteran leadership and solid player down the middle, but it seems more likely that talented player in need of more opportunity, like Jaskin or Yakupov, would be the choice. St. Louis will also expose two dependable veteran defenseman in Carl Gunnarsson and Robert Bortuzzo, both signed to reasonable contracts through 2018-19, but the Knights will see a lot of good defenseman in the draft and neither player really jumps out. Expect the pick to be a project forward, whose loss may not impact the Blues much, but could pay off well for Vegas.

Morning Notes: Letang, Knoblauch, Vegas

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Though he’s already been ruled out for the remainder of the Stanley Cup Finals, Kris Letang was on the ice today before Penguins practice skating alone and without equipment. Kevin McGran of the Toronto Star provided some video evidence, but it’s safe to say he wasn’t going full out.  Letang is just two months into his rehab following neck surgery, which originally came with a four to six month recovery timetable.

It’s a great sign to see Letang back on the ice after such a disastrous season. Missing time with various ailments, the 30-year old defender only played in 41 regular season games and has missed the entire Cup run. With five years remaining on his current contract, the Penguins need him to come back strong and healthy next season.

  • Kris Knoblauch has been hired in Philadelphia as an assistant coach, joining Dave Hakstol’s team. Knoblauch has been the head coach of the Erie Otters for the past five seasons, coaching players like Connor McDavid, Connor Brown, Andre Burakovsky, Dylan Strome and many others. Before that, he was the bench boss for the Kootenay Ice for two seasons, and won a WHL championship as a first-year head coach. His squads qualified for the Memorial Cup twice (including this year), but weren’t able to capture the trophy. He’ll replace the outgoing Joey Mullen and could even provide the Flyers with some extra OHL insight for the upcoming draft. Though it’s unlikely the Flyers would take an OHL player at #2, they do have ten other picks in the draft this year.
  • Vegas is setting up to do some dealing this week, as George McPhee told Dan Marrazza of NHL.com. In all of his talks with the media, McPhee has seemed confident that several deals will be completed before the expansion draft. “We’ve had some real good discussions and I expect some things will start happening next week,” McPhee told Marrazza, a similar sentiment to the one he shared with Pierre LeBrun in their recent sit-down for TSN. There is even a mention of three-way deals that Vegas could facilitate, transactions that are rarely seen in the NHL. The Golden Knights could potentially sign free agents for teams ahead of time as well, during their exclusive negotiating window starting June 17th. There will be a freeze placed on any transactions around the league, except for the ones Vegas can make with UFAs or unprotected RFAs. It should make for an exciting week.

Side Deal Dilemma: Beleskey vs. Hayes

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On Sunday, the Boston Herald’s Steve Conroy suggested that the Bruins attempt to sway the Vegas Golden Knights into selecting Matt Beleskey in the Expansion Draft by offering up a third or even second-round pick. Conroy lists Boston’s depth in young left wingers – Frank Vatrano, Jake DeBrusk, Peter Cehlarik, Danton Heinen, and Anders Bjork to name a few, Beleskey’s drop-off in production and injury problems in 2016-17, and simply the three years and $11.4MM remaining on his contract as reasons why the Bruins should push to have the veteran power forward leave town.

Yet, ask most Bruins fans and they would say that the player they would most like to see selected in the Expansion Draft is Jimmy Hayes. The “Pride of Dorchester” has not been very successful during his home town tenure. After Boston swapped Reilly Smith for Hayes with the Florida Panthers in 2015, his scoring fell off from 35 points in his final season with the Panthers to 29 points in his first season with the Bruins and then to a miserable five points in 58 games in 2016-17. At the price of $2.3MM for one more year, Hayes too is a drain on cap space that many would be willing to give up a pick to move.

So which is the greater of two evils? The fact often forgotten when referencing Beleskey is that in 2015-16, his first season in Boston, Beleskey recorded a career-best 37 points. It wasn’t quite the same per-game production as his final season with the Anaheim Ducks, but Beleskey was still a valuable contributor up front. Beleskey’s hit and blocked shot totals also skyrocketed last season, as he played the integral role of replacing the toughness lost when Milan Lucic departed. Beleskey has acknowledged that he struggled with injuries in 2016-17, which was the main reason he registered just  eight points in the regular season and was only active for three of the Bruins’ six playoff games. Those numbers are bound to improve in 2017-18, as Conroy himself noted. If Beleskey can get healthy and return to 40-point scoring range and to his dominant physical game, those final three years may be well worth it. However, that is a big if. Hayes has performed much worse in the same two seasons as Beleskey and doesn’t have the injury excuse to fall back on. What he does have is just one year remaining. If the Bruins were to give up a draft pick to persuade George McPhee and the Knights to take one of the two players, it would be a better investment to remove three years and over $11MM if they are unsure about Beleskey than for just one more year of a little over $2MM for Hayes, especially if that investment is a high pick. Boston has prospect depth on the right side as well as the left, as top forward prospect Zach Senyshyn will surely push for a job in camp, but Hayes’ contract doesn’t block development the way Beleskey’s could. The Bruins may be better off simply buying Hayes’ final year out if they really wanted to, but the same can’t be said for what would amount to a six-year hit to cut Beleskey.

It seems unfair to jump to conclusions about Beleskey based on one injury-riddled season and if the question was who is more likely to be the better player moving forward between he and Hayes, Beleskey is the easy pick. The Bruins have even stated that a top-six winger is an off-season priority for the team and Beleskey may be their best in-house solution and certainly better than Hayes. However, the question of who the Bruins should try to pawn off on Vegas, should they go that route, should also be Beleskey, as his contract situation and concerns about his long-term durability outweigh the short-term burden Hayes adds. Conroy may be on track with his predictions, though many fans may be disappointed by losing both Beleskey and a draft pick for nothing, but with so many questions surrounding the Expansion Draft for not just Boston, but all 30 teams, this scenario is far from certain.

Expansion Primer: Edmonton Oilers

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

After a decade out of the playoffs, the Edmonton Oilers rebounded in a big way with over 100 points and making it to Game 7 of the second round. Connor McDavid lead the NHL in scoring, while Cam Talbot lead all goaltenders with 73 games played. Leon Draisaitl finished top-ten in scoring and cemented his place as the best Oilers forward in the non-McDavid category.

The Oilers made one of the biggest moves of the off-season, trading superstar forward Taylor Hall to New Jersey for Adam Larsson, who played a big role in solidifying the team’s defence. Late off-season free agent signing Kris Russell played top-four minutes. Mid-season, GM Peter Chiarelli traded Brandon Davidson to Montreal for diminutive center David Desharnais.

Their success this season proved to management that their Stanley Cup window is one or two moves away from being a legitimate contender. With one season until McDavid’s upcoming big contract enters the picture, Chiarelli has some freedom to go for it. The expansion draft may create an opportunity to acquire a big name. Here’s a closer look at their situation:

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Leon Draisaitl, Jordan Eberle, Zack Kassian, Jujhar Khaira, Mark Letestu, Milan Lucic (NMC), Patrick Maroon, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Iiro Pakarinen, Zach Pochiro, Benoit Pouliot, Henrik Samuelsson

Defense:

Mark Fayne, Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson, David Musil, Griffin Reinhart, Andrej Sekera (NMC), Dillon Simpson

Goalies:

Laurent Brossoit, Cam Talbot (NMC)

Notable Exemptions

F Connor McDavid, F Jesse Puljujärvi, F Drake Caggiula, F Anton Slepyshev, D Matt Benning, D Darnell Nurse

Key Decisions

The Oilers only have one decision to make ahead of expansion. It helps tremendously that their superstar captain, three highly-touted forward prospects, and two future top-four defensemen are all exempt. The Oilers will go the 7-3-1 route.

Heading into the trade deadline, it appeared that the Oilers would lose the emerging Davidson to Vegas. The Oilers have Oscar Klefbom, Larsson, and Andrej Sekera for the three defensemen protection slots. With that in mind, Chiarelli traded Davidson to Montreal for Desharnais. The trade didn’t necessarily work out for the Oilers, with Desharnais not being able to solidify the Oilers’ third line and injuries piling up on Edmonton’s blue line at the end of their series against Anaheim.

Trading Davidson also means that the Oilers are going to lose someone else. Mark Letestu

The major choice the Oilers have to make is between Jujhar Khaira and Mark Letestu. The veteran Letestu has one year remaining at $1.8MM. He had 35 points, including 11 power-play goals, after overtaking Jordan Eberle as the right-shot option on the Oilers’ number one power-play unit. However, he’s also a 32-year-old fourth line center coming off high highest point-total in four seasons and a UFA next summer. In 2015-16, Letestu struggled when thrust onto the Oilers’ third line. The Golden Knights are not likely to have sufficient center depth to cover for Letestu at 5-on-5, so they’re liable to look elsewhere.

They may look no further than Khaira, who is just beginning his NHL career. He scored one goal in 10 NHL games last season before suffering an injury. He also had 20 points in 27 AHL games, showing offensive potential enough to one day develop into a third line checking center. Khaira is the kind of young talent that Vegas could look for instead of a 30-something bottom-six forward like Letestu.

Other possible selections include Laurent Brossoit, Griffin Reinhart, and Benoit Pouliot. All five of the above mentioned Oilers are waiver-eligible, meaning there’s no added benefit to taking one of the younger players. It shouldn’t have to be mentioned, but there’s no way the Oilers expose Eberle. Despite his down year, Eberle was still a top-60 scoring winger in the NHL and that is far too valuable to flush for one season of a down shooting percentage.

While the market is flush with goaltenders, Brossoit could be an interesting option as the Golden Knights’ backup for their inaugural season. GM George McPhee could select several options for the starting job and then trade them to teams needing help in the blue paint and use Brossoit as the backup. The young goaltender has played very well at every level, from leading the Edmonton Oil Kings to a Memorial Cup-berth, to successful years starting in the ECHL and AHL, and a good run as the Oilers’ backup during the second half of last season.

Griffin ReinhartMcPhee is willing to take on bad contracts, if the price is right. Pouliot could be one of those redemption options. After several years as a middle-six forward with good analytics, aggressive play, and solid penalty killing, Pouliot fell off the map in 2016-17. He had just 14 points in 67 games and zero points in the playoffs. At $4MM, he’s too expensive to spend two more seasons in Edmonton as McDavid and Draisaitl move on from their entry-level deals. But on an expansion team, he could return to a top-nine role and return to the mid-30 point range that he’s hit so consistently before.

The likeliest selection is Reinhart. The 2012 4th-overall pick has developed slower than expected, but by several accounts was the best defenseman on the Oilers’ AHL team last season. While he’ll never live up to the expectations that come with his draft position (one slot ahead of Morgan Rielly and two ahead of Hampus Lindholm), Reinhart can still become a dependable fifth defenseman who excels on the penalty kill. That has value, and his draft pedigree suggests there’s a player there.

With all that in mind, the Oilers would be better-served offering up Letestu instead of Khaira. Of course, Chiarelli may decide to hold on to the player who has proven he can score 30-plus points and play well on special teams, instead of a player who may be that in the future.

Projected Protection List

F Leon Draisaitl
F Jordan Eberle
F Zack Kassian
F Jujhar Khaira
F Milan Lucic (NMC)
F Patrick Maroon
F Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

D Oscar Klefbom
D Adam Larsson
D Andrej Sekera (NMC)

G Cam Talbot (NMC)

Out of the unprotected players, Reinhart has the best pedigree and is young enough to still develop into a legitimate top-six defenseman. Khaira and Brossoit also have NHL-potential, and should be options for Vegas. Chiarelli and McPhee could also work out a trade where Vegas take an expensive player like Pouliot or Mark Fayne in exchange for a prospect or pick, but that’s far from guaranteed. As a future division rival, McPhee may not be inclined to help out Edmonton for less than a high pick or top prospect. Between Pouliot, Iiro Pakarinen, Fayne, and Brossoit, the Oilers meet the exposure requirements. At his year-end availability, Chiarelli told reporters that the Oilers were going to lose someone that they would rather keep. However, the Oilers situation is far better than most teams; the most likely options are their backup goaltender, fourth line center, or an AHL defenseman.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Expected Extensions Prior To Expansion

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Over the next few weeks, leading up to  June 17th, when each team must submit their list of protected players from the Expansion Draft, there is going to be a flurry of activity. The Vegas Golden Knights are expected to make several side deals regarding the selection process, while the other 30 teams will be working through trade proposals with one another as well. Many teams will also make smaller moves, such as extensions and buyouts, to make the expansion process easier on themselves. Examples could include potential extensions by Carolina or San Jose if they decide they would like to protect Lee Stempniak or Mikkel Boedker respectively. However, there remain several teams that must re-sign a current player, following logic anyway, prior to Saturday the 17th, or else risk having to expose and possibly losing a major piece instead. Each team must expose two forwards and one defenseman that played in at least 40 games this season or 70 games over the past two seasons and also have term remaining on their contract. While meeting these quotas is not a problem for some teams, others lack the roster depth in long-term contracts to do so. No team wants to be pressured into exposing a valued player just to fill that quota, so instead they will sign another current player with the caveat that he will be left unprotected in the Expansion Draft. Such situations played out all year long, with Blackhawks’ forward Jordin Tootoo, Hurricanes’ defenseman Klas Dahlbeck, and, the most publicized of all, Flames’ defenseman Matt Bartkowksi. Yet, unsolved situations still exist. Below are some of the most dire situations and who could benefit from an extension in the near future in order for their team to comply with Expansion Draft rules:

Team: New Jersey Devils

Situation: The re-building Devils nonetheless have a solid core of forwards that they would like to keep together: Taylor Hall, Kyle Palmieri, Adam Henrique, Travis Zajac, and Mike Cammalleri. New Jersey should be within their means to protect this group, expect that it leaves only Devante Smith-Pelly as a forward meeting the 40/70 qualification. Even for those who doubt the effectiveness going forward of the oft-injured 34-year-old Cammalleri, surely the Devils could find a better player to sacrifice than he or Smith-Pelly if they so choose.

Expected Extension: As a young team, the devils are chock full of impending restricted free agents. However, not all RFAs are created equal. Beau Bennett, Jacob Josefson, and Stefan Noesen are all candidates for extension and exposure, but Bennett played a bigger role for New Jersey than even Smith-Pelly in 2016-17 and Noesen played the best hockey of his young career after a mid-season trade from the Anaheim Ducks. Josefson has shown next to no progress in six years in New Jersey. Look for the Devils to try to work out an extension with the 25-year-old center to fill the hole in their expansion plan.

 

Team: New York Rangers

Situation: The Devils’ cross-town rivals are in a similar situation. The Rangers have put together a core of forwards that is the envy of most teams in the league, but it could soon be torn apart. Many feel that backup goalie Antti Raanta will be Vegas’ choice, but New York doesn’t want to give them any reason not to go that route and instead steal a good young forward. The team is already reserved to the fact that 2016-17 breakout star Michael Grabner has to be exposed, but they would rather protect all five of Derek Stepan, Chris Kreider, Mats Zuccarello, J.T. Miller and Kevin Hayes, in addition to Rick Nash, whose No-Movement Clause prevents exposure, and impending RFA Mika Zibanejad. The only problem is that this protection scheme leaves only Grabner as a 40/7o forward.

Expected Extension: The Rangers are not without options for a forward to extend and expose. RFA’s Jesper Fast, Oscar Lindberg, Brandon Pirri, and Matt Puempel would all meet the quota criteria if handed a new deal, as would UFA Tanner Glass. While New York may not be eager to lose any of the four, none significantly outshine Raanta or Grabner in terms of selection value anyway, giving the team every reason to get an extension done with one or more. Fast seems certain to get a new contract from the Rangers anyway, so don’t be surprised if such a deal lands in the next week or two.

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Expansion Primer: Los Angeles Kings

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

It was a tough year for the Los Angeles Kings. After bouncing back in 2015-16 with an 102-point season, the squad collapsed this year after early goaltending injuries and a decisive lack of speed from the forward group. After a nice early season return from the old Dustin Brown, he scored just nine points in his final 26 games and again looks like a buyout candidate. Marian Gaborik scored just 21 points all year, and Anze Kopitar had just three goals through the first 35 games (and only 12 on the season).

Despite all that they added at the trade deadline, dealing for Jarome Iginla and Ben Bishop to try and sneak into the playoffs. They missed, and with it the coaching staff and front office were cleared out. New GM Rob Blake is in charge now, and the Kings will be looking for a fresh start. They will select 11th in the entry draft, but first have some decisions to make in the upcoming expansion draft.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Anze Kopitar (NMC), Dustin Brown, Jeff Carter, Marian Gaborik, Tanner Pearson, Trevor Lewis, Kyle Clifford, Jordan Nolan, Nic Dowd, Andrew Crescenzi, Andy Andreoff, Nick Shore, Justin Auger, Michael Mersch, Tyler Toffoli

Defensemen:

Drew Doughty, Alec Martinez, Jake Muzzin, Matt Greene, Brayden McNabb, Derek Forbort, Kurtis MacDermid

Goaltenders:

Jonathan Quick, Jeff Zatkoff, Jack Campbell

Notable Exemptions

Alex Iafallo, Adrian Kempe, Jonny Brodzinski, Kale Clague, Mike Amadio

Key Decisions

The first, and biggest decision the Los Angeles Kings must make is which protection scheme to use. Each team can protect either 7 forwards, 3 defenseman and 1 goaltender (7-3-1) or eight skaters and one goaltender (8-1). Even though the Kings didn’t have much success this season, doesn’t mean they don’t have a lot of players they’d like to protect. The trouble with being a team on the downside of such a run of success, is that most of your key contributors aren’t young enough to be exempt from the expansion draft. Nick Shore

Up front, the team will undoubtedly protect their veteran leadership in Kopitar and Carter, and their young talent in Toffoli and Pearson. If they decide to go with the 7-3-1 route, that leaves them with three spots left to hand out protection to some combination of the other forwards that include Lewis, Clifford, Shore, and Dowd. Even though Brown and Gaborik could be solid marketing options for Vegas as former stars, the contracts attached to both are basically built-in protection.

The problem with going the 7-3-1 route, and why it’s likely the toughest decision the Kings will have to make, is that it would result in the exposure of McNabb and Forbort. Though the previous Kings regime has never really allowed him to play a key role in their blueline, McNabb has elite possession numbers and could easily be a target for a more analytical-leaning Vegas squad. Forbort on the other hand played in all 82 games for the Kings this season, logging over 20 minutes a night attached to the hip of Doughty.

Brayden McNabbBoth McNabb and Forbort are young enough (26 and 25 respectively) to make an impact for several years in Vegas, and for a team like Los Angeles looking to rebuild losing them for nothing would be a mistake. That said, Doughty, Muzzin and Martinez would all easily be the pick if left unprotected and going with the 8-1 protection scheme would put several forwards at risk (and only give one additional protection slot on the back end).

In net, Quick is going to be protected and there isn’t much debate on that fact. The franchise goaltender missed almost the entire 2016-17 season, but is still an excellent starting option and locked in long-term. Campbell could be interesting to Vegas after a renaissance in the AHL this season but with so many other options from the team will likely be an afterthought.

Vegas will have a chance to sign any free agents during their selection window, and today George McPhee said they would be “very aggressive” in doing so. It’s hard to see it coming into effect for the Kings though, as the only real free agent of note is Iginla who isn’t worth forfeiting a selection over.

Projected Protection List

F Anze Kopitar (NMC)
F Jeff Carter
F Tanner Pearson
F Tyler Toffoli

D Drew Doughty
D Alec Martinez
D Jake Muzzin
D Derek Forbort

G Jonathan Quick Marian Gaborik

It’s not a perfect option for the Kings, as they will watch a valuable player walk out the door during the expansion draft if they don’t make a move to protect themselves. They seem like the perfect candidate to work out a pre-draft trade with Vegas in order to take one of their hefty contracts off their hands and allow them some freedom to rebuild over the next few years.

The same way the team was looking to move Gaborik at the deadline, they now may offer an asset up for Vegas to take him off their hands. The problem is that Vegas holds all the cards (sorry), as there isn’t a clear path for Los Angeles to get out of this that doesn’t involve dealing with George McPhee and the Golden Knights.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Vegas Golden Knights Expect To Acquire Additional Draft Picks

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Going into their very first entry draft, the Vegas Golden Knights currently have just seven selections. It doesn’t sound like they will make just seven picks though, as GM George McPhee told Pierre LeBrun in a recent interview. George McPhee

Yeah we’re expecting to have more [picks]. Just in the conversations we’ve had to date, it looks like we’ll be able to pick up some picks—and good ones.

McPhee went on to say that he hopes to be able to announce some deals next week, confirming that he does have some side-dealing already in place surrounding the expansion draft. Obviously the Golden Knights don’t have any players to trade, and moving draft picks out of the system isn’t likely. That means the deals are expected to be teams basically trading an asset in order to protect the players they want in the draft.

We want to be a real competitive club, we want to be as good as we can, but we also have to be mindful that we’d like to be in a surplus situation here in the next two or three drafts where we have extra picks. Our best players are going to have to come through the entry draft. I don’t think we’re going to get our best players through the expansion draft.

The Golden Knights’ GM seems to be thinking right along the lines of many in the media who have claimed that the available players will be extremely short on high-end skill. While there should be some talented two-way defenders and a couple of legitimate starting goaltenders, top line forwards are almost completely unavailable.

Especially because the Golden Knights fell out of the first few picks in the entry draft this year (though they’ll pick third in rounds 2-7), high-end talent will need to come from a bit lower in the draft this season. Getting more picks increases your chances to hit an explosive talent, though it is still not guaranteed.

McPhee also touched on the free agent window his team will be granted starting on June 18th,  saying that he would be “aggressive” to try and sign talent. The team could sign any unrestricted free agent or unprotected restricted free agent, though it would forfeit its expansion pick from that team in the process. Remember that teams will be holding off on re-signing their free agents until after the draft because they can’t afford to have to protect them, giving McPhee a chance to change their mind. It’s not clear who they would go after, but again the idea of skilled forwards comes up if the team wants to compete right away.

Expansion Primer: Florida Panthers

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

After cracking 100 points and winning the Atlantic Division in 2015-16, injuries and overall under-performance sent the Panthers tumbling back to Earth in 2016-17. Florida finished with over 20 points less, at 81, good enough for sixth in the division and a top-ten draft slot. Yet, hopes remain high in Sunrise, FL as the Panthers are still a team built around young stars that has just begun to reach its potential. With Huberdeau, Trochek, Barkov, Bjugstad, Ekblad, and Matheson forming a core group under 25 with top prospects like forwards Henrik Borgstrom and Adam Mascherin and goalie Sam Montembeault still on the way, Florida only has to worry about adding complementary pieces to a talented young group.

Yet, the shadow of the Expansion Draft still looms large over the Panthers. With so many good, young players under contract, the expansion process will not be easy for the Cats. They may be able to protect their best young players, but they are nearly guaranteed to lose a solid complementary veteran.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards
Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, Reilly Smith, Vincent Trocheck, Nick Bjugstad, Jussi Jokinen, Derek MacKenzie, Colton Sceviour, Jonathan Marchessault, Steven Hodges, Michael Sgarbossa, Graham Black

Defense
Keith Yandle (NMC), Aaron Ekblad, Jason Demers, Alex Petrovic, Mark Pysyk, MacKenzie Weegar, Reece Scarlett

Goaltender
Roberto Luongo, James Reimer

Notable Exemptions

Jared McCann, Denis Malgin, Michael Matheson, Ian McCoshen

Key Decisions

The Panthers don’t have an easy decision to make at any position group. They face the risk of losing a prominent forward, defenseman, or goalie if they don’t read the Vegas Golden Knights correctly. Perhaps the biggest name who may be left unprotected in net: potential future Hall of Fame goalie Roberto Luongo. Many were surprised when the Panthers brought back Luongo, and with him the remainder of a 12-year, $64MM contract, in 2014. Even more were surprised when, nonetheless, Florida signed James Reimer to a five-year, $17MM contract on July 1st of last year. That move seems like it has partly been leading up to this point. While Luongo and Reimer each started 39 games in 2016-17 with very similar records, Reimer had the edge on Luongo in performance statistics. While this was their first season sharing the net, it is now the second season in a row in which Reimer has outplayed Luongo. It seems very unlikely that Florida will choose to protect the 38-year-old Luongo, who is under contract at $5.33MM per year until the age of 43, over the 29-year-old Reimer, with a more reasonable $3.4MM cap hit over that same span of time. Luongo will thus likely be one of the biggest names under contract and available to Vegas, but don’t expect a new team to take on that contract. Should they expose Reimer instead, the chances are much higher that the Knights will select a Panther goalie, but chances are both keepers are back in Florida next year regardless.

Among the forward corps, there is a lot to sort out. To get the easy ones out of the way, young scorers Jonathan Huberdeau, Vincent Trocheck, Aleksander Barkov, and Nick Bjugstad are almost surely safe. Assuming the Panthers go with the 7/3 scheme, that leaves them with three forwards left to protect. If they do go 8-skaters, then those four would represent all the protected forwards. After a breakout campaign in which he led the Panthers with 30 goals, 26-year-old Jonathan Marchessault is also highly likely to be protected. This leaves just two spots left for four valuable veteran forwards: Reilly Smith, Jussi Jokinen, Colton Sceviour, and captain Derek MacKenzie. Luckily for the Panthers, all four meet the qualifications (having played 70 games over the last two seasons or 40 games last season and be under contract) to meet the two-forward quota, so whoever the GM Dale Tallon wants he can have without having to consider other expansion criteria. With the free agent status of Jaromir Jagr up in the air, the leadership value of Jokinen and MacKenzie must be considered by a young Florida team. However, MacKenzie has not scored more than 20 points in a season since 2010-11 and is likely not of interest to Vegas and can be left unprotected. So who of Jokinen, Smith, and Sceviour will join him in the Draft? The 25-year-old Smith has the best chance to be the best producer for the longest amount of time in Florida. This also could be a way for the Panthers to dump the five-year, $25MM extension they signed him to last summer before it even begins. As he did with the Boston Bruins, Smith had a great first season with Florida in 2015-16, but just as he did in Boston, Smith fell off significantly in year two. The Panthers will have to re-sign Bjugstad and Marchessault and give non-entry level deals to Denis Malgin, Jared McCann, and others before that contract expires. Can they afford the weight of a $5MM annual cap hit for an average player? If Smith has scared them off, expect them to expose him and hope Vegas takes the risk. If not, it comes down to Jokinen and Sceviour. Again, the 33-year-old Jokinen has the leadership and experience and is just one year removed from a 60-point season. Sceviour can’t boast that kind of career production, but at $950K to Jokinen’s $4MM and Smith’s $5MM, he gets the Panthers more bang for their buck.

Defense is the real nightmare for Florida. Keith Yandle’s No-Movement Clause makes him automatically protected, though he would be protected regardless after signing a seven-year deal last year that began with a nice 41-point season. Aaron Ekblad is also as close to a sure thing as their is in the Expansion Draft as far as protection. The 2015 Calder Trophy-winner struggled a bit last season, but is still a top pair defenseman at just 21 years old. That leaves defensive spot left in the 7/3 scheme and three stalwart defeseman to choose from: Jason Demers, Alex Petrovic, and Mark Pysyk. Unfortunately, unless circumstance change, Demers is out of the equation. With Yandle and Ekblad protected and Petrovic and Pysyk as restricted free agents, Demers is the only defenseman on the roster who can meet the 70-40 quota. It is possible for Florida to re-sign and expose Petrovic, Pysyk, or impending unrestricted free agent Jakub Kindl and then protect Demers, but their hesitation to do so yet seems to imply that they won’t be. Thus, Demers will be exposed and stands a very high chance of playing in Vegas next season. As for Petrovic verus Pysyk, both are similar in age and have great ability, but little to show for it on the score sheet early in their careers. The Panthers brass know best which 25-year-old fits best on the team, and likely both will remain in Florida, but don’t be surprised if they give the homegrown talent Petrovic the nod.

Projected Protection List

Scheme: 7F/3D/1G

Forwards

Jonathan Huberdeau
Vincent Trocheck
Aleksander Barkov
Nick Bjugstad
Jonathan Marchessault
Jussi Jokinen
Colton Sceviour

Defensemen

Keith Yandle (NMC)
Aaron Ekblad
Alex Petrovic

Goalie

James Reimer

Every team has a few risks that they must take in the Expansion Draft. As extraordinarily unlikely as it is, losing Luongo would be a blow and would cause the Panthers to have to change their off-season priorities to focus on helping Reimer in net. Smith being selected could come back to bite them if his $25MM deal pays off in Vegas. Being stripped of their captain would be rough on the locker room and they will likely hold out hope that there is no interest in MacKenzie. Having Pysyk taken from them after he was the centerpiece of last summer’s Dmitry Kulikov trade would feel like a waste.

So what sets Florida apart? Exposing Demers barely qualifies as a risk. The 28-year-old was one of the prizes of free agency last summer and just finished the first season of a relatively affordable five-year, $22.5MM deal. He scored 28 points this season, the second best campaign of his career and a level of production closer to that of his time back with the San Jose Sharks. He also has seen a steady climb in shooting percentage as the years have gone on and could easily break double digits next season, regardless of where he plays. However, the best thing about Demers for the Golden Knights is that he is a safe pick. He can lead their defense, can easily play 20+ minutes per night, can hit and block shots, and is signed long-term, meaning he can become a franchise player and potentially the team’s first captain. Unless the Panthers go 8-skaters or extend a current qualifying defenseman to then protect Demers, they face a real risk of losing a very solid player for nothing after just one year.

Without AHL Team, Blues Face Disadvantage

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When the St. Louis Blues’ AHL affiliation with the Chicago Wolves was officially terminated on Wednesday in favor of partnership with Las Vegas, an important aspect of the deal was overlooked by many around the league. The St. Louis Blues will still provide players to the Wolves, but only their best players are likely to see action, as the Golden Knights hold primary ownership. Given the Knights’ situation, why play borderline prospects of an outside organization, who you are still technically competing with? They will need warm bodies for years to come, but Knights prospects will always be valued higher.

This association may not seem like a huge deal, considering that NHL teams have used AHL partnerships in years past. However, St. Louis will be the only team dealing with this handicap in the upcoming season, and it’s not a situation that will help their organization gain advantage over a tough Central division. A team hasn’t dealt with this sort of turmoil in the minors since the 2009-10 season when the Anaheim Ducks had no affiliate whatsoever. The Ducks that year? They finished 11th in the conference and missed the playoffs.

Although Vegas, without an abundance of pro-ready prospects, may appreciate this arrangement for AHL competitiveness reasons, it can only mean a step back for St. Louis. There is no tangible benefit to having your third and fourth line hopefuls lose valuable playing time to outside players. One need only look to the role players of this year’s playoff teams to realize that having a deep bench in case of injuries is always worthwhile. The Penguins for example, have Carter Rowney, Josh Archibald, and currently injured Tom Kuhnhackl performing important spot-duty. Derrick Pouliot even has an outside shot of seeing playing time this series. If any of these had played on a split-squad in the AHL, there is a strong probability they would not have the requisite experience to be inserted into NHL playoff hockey.

GM Doug Armstrong says he has a “comfort level” with Las Vegas GM George McPhee, and that eases his mind about the situation. Regardless of comfort, Blues ownership failed the team and its prospects by not securing a primary home for their players. The Blues need to have a solid farm system, which they had seemingly started to build with a dominant 1st-overall performance this past season. The likes of Jordan Schmaltz, Magnus Paajarvi, and Ivan Barbashev all benefited from a successful AHL outing. Going forward, securing a stable location for all of its players is a must for St. Louis. It’s a disadvantage from the beginning of summer until the end of the season.

Golden Knights Notes: Expansion Draft Targets, Gallant, Yakupov

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The NHL purposefully designed the rules regarding the expansion draft to give the league’s newest member the best possible chance to compete right away. Teams have two options in terms of whom to protect from their current roster: they can either choose to protect seven forwards, three defensemen and a goalie or they can go the alternate route of eight skaters and one goalie. Any player with two seasons or less of experience playing professional hockey in North America are exempt. Undoubtedly, many teams will confront some tough choices when it comes to whom they potentially lose to the Golden Knights later next month.

Rob Vollman, writing for ESPN.com, examines who among the four Stanley Cup semi-finalists Vegas GM George McPhee is most likely going to garner significant interest from the veteran hockey executive. From the reigning champion Penguins, Vollman suggests that unless the club can convince Marc-Andre Fleury to waive his NMC and subsequently trade him to another club looking for a #1 between the pipes, one of Pittsburgh’s goaltenders would be the best choice for McPhee and the Golden Knights. However, should the Penguins proactively move one of their ’tenders – almost assuredly Fleury – prior to the expansion draft, Vollman suggests blue liner Brian Dumoulin as the best choice given his penalty killing prowess and ability to play solid defensively.

According to the scribe, Anaheim, barring some shifty maneuvering, may risk losing Josh Manson or Jakob Silfverberg to their new division rivals. Manson, as a right-hand defenseman who can move the puck and plays with bite, would be an excellent addition for Vegas.

Because of their defensive depth, Nashville will likely choose to protect eight skaters, with four being blue liners. This means the Golden Knights will probably have their pick from a group which includes forwards Calle Jarnkrok, Craig Smith and Colin Wilson. Ultimately, Vollman thinks Jarnkrok would be the sensible choice given his affordable cap hit ($2MM annually through 2021-22) and his strong two-way play.

Given the lack of proven goal scorers likely to be available to McPhee in the expansion draft, Vollman wonders whether Vegas could be convinced to take the onerous contract of Bobby Ryan off of Ottawa’s hands. Ryan, who has five years – at which point the winger will be 35 – and an annual cap charge of $7.25MM, has struggled since joining Ottawa four years ago and finished with just 13 goals in 62 contests this past season. However, he has played better in the playoffs recording five markers and 14 points in 16 games. Vollman doubts McPhee would take that hefty contract on without the Senators offering them further incentive to do so but also notes the $7.25MM price tag would make it much easier to reach their targeted floor of $43.8MM in salaries. And at 30, there is hope Ryan can provide at least a few seasons of solid offensive production for a club who will likely struggle to put the puck in the net.

In other Golden Knights news:

  • The Golden Knights have done well in hiring veteran coach Gerard Gallant to be the franchise’s first bench boss, at least if some of his former charges and current contemporaries are correct. NHL.com’s Brian Hedger penned an article on Gallant, who is currently an assistant with Canada’s entry in the 2017 IIHF World Championship, which included quotes from Michael Matheson and Nick Bjugstad, who each played for Gallant in Florida. Matheson, a young defenseman who rejoined Gallant on Team Canada for this tournament, said: “He’s a tremendous coach and I loved my time with him. He just gives his players a lot of confidence. He realizes that you’re going to make mistakes but that it’s not the end of the world. He’s just going to put you back onto the ice because he has confidence in you.” For his part, Bjugstad said: “He’s one of my favorite coaches ever,” and indicated he was well-liked in the room in Florida. “Everyone respected him. He had a young team with us, and it didn’t take him long to kind of push us to that next level, the next step. There’s no reason he can’t do it with the next team.” Tampa Bay head coach Jon Cooper also offered up strong praise for Gallant: “I think it’s a great get for Las Vegas. I got to meet Gerard at the [World Cup of Hockey 2016], and that’s a big reason he’s here with us today. He’s extremely knowledgeable about the game, the guys play hard for him and I think he’ll do a [great] job in Vegas.” Gallant’s ability to help develop young players and earn the respect from his charges should do him well in his new position. While the Golden Knights will have access to quality NHL talent via the expansion draft, the organization will still likely rely on building with youth through the draft and it may be a few seasons before they are ready to compete regularly for the postseason.
  • With the probable lack of proven goal scorers available to Vegas in the expansion draft, the club will likely look for other ways to add offensive talent to the organization. The Golden Knights have already inked free agent center Vadim Shipachyov, a skilled Russian who was expected to draw significant interest from several NHL clubs this summer. He may well slot in as the team’s #1 center to begin the season. But, as talented as Shipachyov might be, he is more of a playmaker than a goal scorer and Vegas will have to add more talent around their new #1 pivot. Luke Fox of Sportsnet suggests that former top overall draft pick Nail Yakupov is just the sort of player Vegas should take a chance on as they search for impact offensive talent. Yakupov, who suffered through the worst season of his career with St. Louis in 2016-17, scoring just nine points in 40 games, has said he has no desire to return home and play in the KHL. Fox believes the 23-year-old winger is worth a short-term, small money deal for Vegas, or for another team starved for cheap offense, perhaps L.A. Signing Yakupov would certainly make a lot of sense for Vegas. The presence of Shipachyov could help ease Yakupov’s adjustment to the desert and provide the talented winger with the type of setup man that could help him thrive.

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