Side Deal Dilemma: Beleskey vs. Hayes

On Sunday, the Boston Herald’s Steve Conroy suggested that the Bruins attempt to sway the Vegas Golden Knights into selecting Matt Beleskey in the Expansion Draft by offering up a third or even second-round pick. Conroy lists Boston’s depth in young left wingers – Frank Vatrano, Jake DeBrusk, Peter Cehlarik, Danton Heinen, and Anders Bjork to name a few, Beleskey’s drop-off in production and injury problems in 2016-17, and simply the three years and $11.4MM remaining on his contract as reasons why the Bruins should push to have the veteran power forward leave town.

Yet, ask most Bruins fans and they would say that the player they would most like to see selected in the Expansion Draft is Jimmy Hayes. The “Pride of Dorchester” has not been very successful during his home town tenure. After Boston swapped Reilly Smith for Hayes with the Florida Panthers in 2015, his scoring fell off from 35 points in his final season with the Panthers to 29 points in his first season with the Bruins and then to a miserable five points in 58 games in 2016-17. At the price of $2.3MM for one more year, Hayes too is a drain on cap space that many would be willing to give up a pick to move.

So which is the greater of two evils? The fact often forgotten when referencing Beleskey is that in 2015-16, his first season in Boston, Beleskey recorded a career-best 37 points. It wasn’t quite the same per-game production as his final season with the Anaheim Ducks, but Beleskey was still a valuable contributor up front. Beleskey’s hit and blocked shot totals also skyrocketed last season, as he played the integral role of replacing the toughness lost when Milan Lucic departed. Beleskey has acknowledged that he struggled with injuries in 2016-17, which was the main reason he registered just  eight points in the regular season and was only active for three of the Bruins’ six playoff games. Those numbers are bound to improve in 2017-18, as Conroy himself noted. If Beleskey can get healthy and return to 40-point scoring range and to his dominant physical game, those final three years may be well worth it. However, that is a big if. Hayes has performed much worse in the same two seasons as Beleskey and doesn’t have the injury excuse to fall back on. What he does have is just one year remaining. If the Bruins were to give up a draft pick to persuade George McPhee and the Knights to take one of the two players, it would be a better investment to remove three years and over $11MM if they are unsure about Beleskey than for just one more year of a little over $2MM for Hayes, especially if that investment is a high pick. Boston has prospect depth on the right side as well as the left, as top forward prospect Zach Senyshyn will surely push for a job in camp, but Hayes’ contract doesn’t block development the way Beleskey’s could. The Bruins may be better off simply buying Hayes’ final year out if they really wanted to, but the same can’t be said for what would amount to a six-year hit to cut Beleskey.

It seems unfair to jump to conclusions about Beleskey based on one injury-riddled season and if the question was who is more likely to be the better player moving forward between he and Hayes, Beleskey is the easy pick. The Bruins have even stated that a top-six winger is an off-season priority for the team and Beleskey may be their best in-house solution and certainly better than Hayes. However, the question of who the Bruins should try to pawn off on Vegas, should they go that route, should also be Beleskey, as his contract situation and concerns about his long-term durability outweigh the short-term burden Hayes adds. Conroy may be on track with his predictions, though many fans may be disappointed by losing both Beleskey and a draft pick for nothing, but with so many questions surrounding the Expansion Draft for not just Boston, but all 30 teams, this scenario is far from certain.