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Pittsburgh, Los Angeles Could Make More Moves

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The Pittsburgh Penguins and Los Angeles Kings kicked off the winter trade season with a deal today that swapped Tanner Pearson for Carl Hagelin, but there’s no reason things will stop there. In today’s 31 Thoughts column by Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet, the venerable insider notes that more may be coming from both franchises.

On Pittsburgh, Friedman speculates about a potential “lateral” deal between the Penguins and Anaheim Ducks similar to the one they completed in 2016, which is how Hagelin arrived in the first place. Though he doesn’t go so far as to name players who might be involved in such a move, he notes that “the rumored names” were not swapped today in the deal with Los Angeles.

Interestingly, the next point Friedman makes is about how recent draft pick Calen Addison has generated plenty of interest from other teams. That obviously wouldn’t be a “change of scenery” deal given Addison’s youth and huge upside, but may indicate that teams are hoping that GM Jim Rutherford will be going all-in this season and dealing away some of his top prospects. Addison, an undersized but incredibly gifted right-shot defenseman, was selected 53rd in June, and is off to a great start with the Lethbridge Hurricanes of the WHL.

Los Angeles meanwhile is at the other end of the competitive spectrum this season, as they find themselves almost out of the playoff race already. With Jonathan Quick and Jack Campbell both going down to major knee injuries and the team already firing head coach John Stevens, it may be time to start selling off assets and retooling for next season. Friedman notes that the “list of players Los Angeles is willing to move is growing” though doesn’t give any specifics. The Fourth Period also reported today that the Kings are “exploring the market” on Tyler Toffoli, while Jake Muzzin has also been discussed with teams.

This trade talk surrounding the Kings comes on the same day that top prospect Gabe Vilardi has been cleared for full practice, as he works his way back from injury to try and really start his professional career. Vilardi, the 11th overall pick in 2017, hasn’t played at all this season because of his back injury, but according to Curtis Zupke of the Los Angeles Times will be evaluated again in a couple of weeks. The existence of prospects like Vilardi—who holds immense offensive potential—could make it even more appealing for the Kings to sell off some of their expiring or ineffective assets and start the process of a short rebuild. While the team is still committed with big contracts to the likes of Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty, they are currently sitting well behind the rest of the Pacific Division and last in the entire NHL with just a 5-11-1 record on the year.

Tanner Pearson Traded To Pittsburgh Penguins

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The Pittsburgh Penguins gave General Manager Jim Rutherford three more years under contract, and he immediately gave them a new player. The team has traded Carl Hagelin to the Los Angeles Kings in exchange for forward Tanner Pearson. The Penguins have also retained 6.25% ($250K) on Hagelin’s contract, which makes the salary exchange a wash between the two sides for the remainder of this season.

Pearson, 26, is off to the worst start of his professional career and hasn’t scored a single goal in 17 games this season. That lack of offense has contributed to the Kings’ struggles in the early going, as the forward had previously been relied on as a key secondary scoring option. That’s what Pittsburgh hopes it is getting, as Pearson did score 24 goals as recently as 2016-17 and may be able to find that touch while playing alongside talented centers like Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin. There’s no indication where exactly he’ll fit into the lineup, but the Penguins have been trying just about every combination so far this season with little success to show for it.

Selected in the first round of the 2012 draft, it wasn’t always obvious he was going to have a professional career at all. Pearson was twice passed over entirely in the draft, his first year of eligibility coming before he even joined the Barrie Colts of the OHL. That all changed in 2012 when he starred for the Colts and worked his way onto the Canadian World Junior team, taking home a bronze medal but showing he could compete alongside other top prospects. An outstanding rookie season in the AHL earned him an NHL debut in the playoffs for the Kings, and in the 2014 playoffs he would be a huge component to the Kings’ Stanley Cup championship.

With two more years after this season on his current contract, Pearson isn’t just a rental for Pittsburgh this season. He’s an investment that could pay off or make the cap troubles for Rutherford and the Penguins front office even tougher. He carries a $3.75MM cap hit, and while it is offset for this season by dealing away Hagelin, the speedy Penguins winger is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year and was coming off the books. That benefit is exactly what the Kings were after as they look to restructure their salary system, which will have to accommodate Drew Doughty’s huge $88MM extension next season.

Salary freedom was the goal here for the Kings, but they do also get an experienced winger in return. Hagelin has 121 playoff games under his belt including lengthy runs with the New York Rangers and consecutive Stanley Cup championships with Pittsburgh. Though his scoring has dried up with just three points on the season, he does still bring an element of speed that was obviously missing from the Los Angeles forward group. An excellent penalty killer—though Pearson is also strong short-handed—Hagelin will likely be a desirable asset at the trade deadline if the Kings can’t turn things around over the next few months. The fact that his contract is just a little bit more palatable will only make him that much more interesting.

The Penguins and Kings both likely aren’t finished tweaking their rosters, but this is a good start for both teams without taking on much risk. Even if Pearson finds his scoring touch and becomes a useful player, the Kings didn’t have the money or desire to pay out his deal as they try to retool their roster. The Penguins meanwhile are taking on a bit of risk with the contract term, but are in pure win-now mode with the trio of Crosby, Malkin and Phil Kessel all heading into the latter part of their careers and need help right away. Hagelin wasn’t cutting it as part of their secondary scoring group, so they’ll give it a shot with the younger and more dynamic Pearson.

Darren Dreger of TSN was first to name Pearson as the acquisition.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports images

Jim Rutherford Signs Three-Year Extension With Pittsburgh Penguins

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If anyone was disappointed with the moves that Jim Rutherford has made as General Manager of the Pittsburgh Penguins the last few years, it certainly hasn’t been ownership. The Penguins announced today that they have signed Rutherford to a three-year extension that will keep him in his current position through the 2021-22 season. Penguins owners Mario Lemieux and Ron Burkle released a statement about the extension:

We think Jim Rutherford is one of the best general managers in all of sports and, during his tenure in Pittsburgh, arguably the best GM In the NHL. His goal every year is to win the Stanley Cup and that kind of commitment to excellence is what drives us all. Jim is already a big part of Penguins history with back-to-back championships, but his goal is to achieve even more, and we want to help him do that. We appreciate his continuing dedication to the Penguins.

Rutherford was in the final year of his current deal, but will now get some security and renewed confidence from the organization—not that it was waning at all. The legendary GM is likely headed for the Hall of Fame one day, after winning the Stanley Cup three times. The first of those wins came with the Carolina Hurricanes, before winning back-to-back championships with the Penguins in 2016 and 2017.

Known league-wide as a willing trade partner, Rutherford has orchestrated many deals over his career and completed another one just after being given the extension. The Penguins under his leadership put just the right finishing touches on a roster that was ready to compete, and will try to continue to do it going forward. With Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel all entering the latter half of their careers, the time is now or never for the Penguins to try and win another Stanley Cup. Rutherford knows that, and will do everything in his power to bring that sacred chalice back to Pittsburgh once again.

It’s now obvious why former assistant GM Jason Botterill left for the Buffalo Sabres when he had the chance, even though he seemed the heir apparent to Rutherford in Pittsburgh. The 69-year old GM obviously has no intention of retiring in the next few years, meaning there would have been little room for promotion in the Penguins organization for Botterill.

Metropolitan Notes: Penguins, Brassard, Van Riemsdyk

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Penguins GM Jim Rutherford has made it clear that he’s not happy with how his team has performed this season.  He indicated earlier in the week that he will be actively pursuing trades if Pittsburgh doesn’t turn it around and noted to Josh Yohe of The Athletic (subscription required) that had they not fared well on their Western road trip earlier in the season, a move likely would have been made already.

Unfortunately for the Penguins, they haven’t won since that trip, losing five straight games heading into play on Saturday.  They also have very limited cap room to work with; while defenseman Justin Schultz is on LTIR, he’ll be back before the end of the season so they can’t really add a significant contract at the moment.  If they did, they’d have to make another move to get back into cap compliance before they could activate Schultz when he’s expected to return sometime in February.  As a result, if Rutherford wants to shake things up beyond a move involving Daniel Sprong, they will likely have to come close to matching contracts in whatever they decide to do.

More from the Metropolitan Division:

  • Still with the Penguins, center Derick Brassard has resumed skating as he works his way back from a lower-body injury, notes Chris Adamski of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. He has been out of the lineup since sustaining a lower-body injury back on October 25th.  He’s still likely a week or so away from being cleared to return though as he’ll have to get the green light for contact first and get in some practices with the team.  The 31-year-old has a goal and four assists in eight games so far this season.
  • While Flyers winger James van Riemsdyk has resumed skating, he indicated to Dave Isaac of the Cherry Hill Courier-Post that his return is still likely another week away. The 29-year-old was brought in to bring Philadelphia another notable scoring threat up from but he was injured in the second game of the season and has been out since then.

Daniel Sprong “Out There” In Trade Talks

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The Pittsburgh Penguins have been in a dire tailspin for the last few weeks, losing five games in a row including last night at the Washington Capitals. That’s created plenty of speculation about whether GM Jim Rutherford will make a move to address the roster in the coming days, given his propensity for making deals in the past. Darren Dreger was on TSN radio this morning talking about that, and mentioned that at least a small deal may be coming soon:

I don’t know that it’s going to be drastic. My sources yesterday [were] telling me that it might start with a smaller deal. You know Daniel Sprong, who is a 21-year old second-round pick of the Pittsburgh Penguins has been you know, a limited player in the organization the last couple of seasons. He’s out there for trade.

Dreger went on to explain his belief that Rutherford will make a move at some point to try and put an end to the losing skid, noting that other teams like the Los Angeles Kings could be looking to shake up their rosters as well. It’s not the first time Sprong’s name has been included in trade talks, given the fact that he still hasn’t established himself as an everyday player in Pittsburgh. That’s something that the organization was clear about wanting last spring, when Rutherford himself said that Sprong would be a “regular” in the lineup. He’s played in 12 of 14 games for the Penguins this season, but logged fewer than ten minutes of ice time in eight of them.

Still, there’s reason to believe that Sprong would still hold considerable trade value. The 21-year old forward scored 65 points in 65 games as an AHL rookie last season, and put up huge totals in the junior ranks of the QMJHL. Selected 46th overall in 2015, there’s still plenty of upside in the talented forward that could bring some more established talent back to Pittsburgh.

Giving up on a young prospect isn’t exactly ideal, but the Penguins know they are in the middle of their competitive window with Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel all quickly nearing the end of their most effective years. Rutherford has a reputation for making big positional changes in-season, and is never one to wait until the deadline to go after the player he is targeting. It’s not clear who Pittsburgh would want in any Sprong deal, but you can be sure the Penguins will make some sort of move before the season is out. Knowing that, there’s no doubt that teams are calling on Sprong to see if they can extract the talented young forward. Whether they can pry him out of Rutherford’s grasp is still to be seen.

Metropolitan Notes: Johnson, Ferland, Boyd, Mayfield

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Ever since the injury to defenseman Justin Schultz, there have been rumors that the Pittsburgh Penguins may have to upgrade their defense if they wanted to make a serious run for a Stanley Cup. Regardless, Penguins general manager Jim Rutherford stated that the team has enough depth to fill the hole in their defense from within.

Yet rumors continued, especially after defenseman Jack Johnson was found to be on the ice for five goals against in their 6-5 overtime victory Tuesday against the Edmonton Oilers. Again, fans began clamoring to get help to lessen the role of Johnson, after he signed a questionable five-year, $16.25MM deal in the offseason. However, head coach Mike Sullivan was quick to come to Johnson’s defense, according to Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

“The reality is when you break down the involvement of those goals, he had no responsibility for any of those goals-against,” Sullivan said of Johnson’s performance against the Oilers. “He just happened to be on the ice for them. We try to look at the game a whole lot closer than the fact that guy is on the ice when a goal is scored because a lot can happen in a team game.”

Rutherford furthered that notion by reiterating that the team intends to stand pat with regards to adding more defense.

“I certainly don’t see us having to go get another defenseman with the group of guys we have,” Rutherford said. “We have guys in Wilkes-Barre who can come in and play on top of who we have here.”

  • While the Carolina Hurricanes made a number of moves this offseason, the team may be most happy with the play of Micheal Ferland, who came over in the trade with the Calgary Flames during the offseason. While the team’s main reason to bringing Ferland in was to add some toughness to a team that lacked it a year ago, the team seems to be getting quite a bit more than that out of him, according to Chip Alexander of the News & Observer. Ferland has found a place on the team’s top line with Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen, and has a team-high six goals, along with 10 points. If Ferland keeps that up, he could break his career-high of 21 goals this season.
  • NHL.com’s Tom Gulitti writes Washington Capitals head coach Todd Reirden said that Travis Boyd will have some tests tomorrow to determine the progress of his injury when he sustained a lower-body injury during training camp and was placed on LTIR. Because he was placed on LTIR, he was forced to miss 10 games, meaning he can be activated now if he’s healthy. “We’ll have him checked out again tomorrow and then see how close he is to being able to play as soon as Thursday,” Reirden said (via NBC Sports J.J. Regan). “But we still need to get some tests done and see exactly where he’s at. He’s been coming along and for the most part seems to be fairly pain-free.” Boyd made eight appearances with the Capitals last year and was battling with Nic Dowd for the fourth-line center position, but lost that job after getting injured.
  • New York Islanders head coach Barry Trotz said that perhaps the biggest surprise on the roster has been the play of defenseman Scott Mayfield, according to Newsday’s Andrew Gross. The 26-year-old has a goal and five points in seven games this season, but has really impressed the coach with his play even though Trotz admitted that he got off to a slow start at training camp.

New Jersey Devils To Hire Mark Dennehy As AHL Head Coach

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The New Jersey Devils have snatched a coach from the Pittsburgh Penguins organization, agreeing to terms with Mark Dennehy as head coach of their AHL affiliate. Dennehy had been hired earlier this offseason to lead the Wheeling Nailers of the ECHL, but was given permission to interview for the advanced position in the AHL. New Jersey AGM Tom Fitzgerald released a statement thanking the Penguins:

I want to thank Jim Rutherford, Bill Guerin, the Penguins’ organization and the Wheeling Nailers ownership group for the opportunity to speak with Mark on this position. Mark has spent considerable time building, coaching and recruiting in one of college hockey’s most competitive conferences. His experience will help him connect with players coming from the collegiate and junior hockey levels. Mark is extremely excited for a new challenge and to take the next step in his coaching career.

Dennehy has spent the last 13 years coaching Merrimack College, where he was tasked with developing young players and getting them ready for their transition into the professional ranks. He’ll be given a similar role with the Binghamton Devils, where the job is to get picks and prospects ready for their NHL futures while still maintaining a culture of winning.

The Contract Each Team Would Most Like To Trade: Part III

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Nearly every team has one of those players: a top talent they were excited to sign and never thought could do anything but help them. In hindsight, history shows that more often than not, expensive, long-term free agent contracts don’t work out. It may look good at first (or it may look bad right away to the outside observer), but players struggle to make their value last throughout a lengthy contract. Those contracts come back to bite teams and are hard to get rid of. As teams begin to finalize their rosters at this point in the off-season, many are struggling to make everyone fit under the salary cap and are regretting these past signings that exasperate a cap crunch that can be tough for even a mistake-free club. We already took a look at the first third and second third of the league; here are the contracts that each of the final ten teams would most like to trade, from Philadelphia to Winnipeg:

Philadelphia Flyers: Andrew MacDonald – two years, $10MM remaining

Based purely on salary versus what he brings to the table, Jori Lehtera’s $4.7MM contract is the worst on the Flyers. However, Philadelphia is far from cap trouble this season, currently among the five lightest payrolls in the league, and Lehtera’s deal expires after this season. However, next year the Flyers will need to re-sign or replace Wayne Simmonds, hand new deals to Ivan Provorov and Travis Konecny, and likely find a new starting goalie. The cap crunch will be much more real and the over-inflated $5MM contract of Andrew MacDonald will hurt. MacDonald’s six-year, $30MM contract was immediately panned by the public and it wasn’t long after that he was buried in the minors for cap relief and to keep him out of the lineup. MacDonald simply is not the player he was with the New York Islanders earlier in his career when he could eat major minutes, was stellar in man-to-man defense, and could block shots with the best. What he is being paid now is far beyond what he is actually worth. Some would say that Radko Gudas is worse, but that is an argument that suffers from recency bias. Combining the past two seasons, Gudas actually has the same amount of points as MacDonald in fewer games and less ice time, a better plus/minus rating, far more shots, and of course infinitely more hits. At $3.35MM for the next two years, Gudas is a far better deal.

Pittsburgh Penguins: Carl Hagelin – one year, $4MM remaining

The real answer is that GM Jim Rutherford would not like to trade any more players. He already ditched two of his worst contracts by sending Matt Hunwick and Conor Sheary to the Buffalo Sabres and he isn’t eager to make another salary dump. However, the reality is that Rutherford is going to find it hard to manipulate his roster this season with just over $1MM in cap space. As such, it is likely that another Penguin could be on the move. An outside observer could easily point to the Jack Johnson contract as one that stands little chance of maintaining its value over the term and the same argument could be made for Patric Hornqvist as well. However, Rutherford just signed those deals and wouldn’t move them even if he could. That leaves a short list of players who could be moved and the only one that sticks out as being overpriced is Carl Hagelin. Hagelin has played an important part of the Penguins’ reign over the past few years, but at $4MM he has not cracked 40 points in any of the three seasons and can go cold for weeks at a time. Rutherford won’t make a move unless it can benefit the team, but if he can get another scoring winger in exchange for a package that dumps Hagelin’s salary, he’ll do it.

San Jose Sharks: None

Mikkel Boedker, Joel Ward, and Paul Martin are all gone. Two top forwards, the two best defensemen, and the starting goalie are all locked up long-term at a reasonable rate. The Sharks have almost $4.5MM in cap space this season, giving them room to add. Congratulations to GM Doug Wilson and his staff. This roster is the epitome of cap compliance mixed with depth and talent. There is not one contract that the team would be interested in dumping.

St. Louis Blues: Alexander Steen – three years, $17.25MM remaining

The Blues currently have all but $285K of their cap space committed to 24 players. The team may send Chris Thorburn or Jordan Nolan down to the AHL, but will only gain marginal space. Something else has to give. If they could target any player to move to alleviate some pressure, it would be Alexander Steen. With just seven forwards and three defensemen (as of now) signed beyond next season and the majority of players in line for raises or free agent replacements, these cap woes aren’t going away anytime soon and an expensive long-term deal needs to be shipped out. Understandably, St. Louis is all in this season and wouldn’t be eager to ship out an important top-six piece. However, Ryan O’Reilly, Vladimir Tarasenko, Brayden Schenn, and Jaden Schwartz are the new young core up front now and paying 34-year-old Steen $5.75MM for three more years for declining production just doesn’t make sense. The Blues could potentially land some nice pieces from another contender for Steen as well. Admittedly, the Tyler Bozak contract looks even worse than Steen’s, but the Blues won’t be looking to trade a player they just signed.

Tampa Bay Lightning: Ryan Callahan – two years, $11.6MM remaining

The long-term implications of several other deals aside, the Lightning’s Stanley Cup window is wide open and their focus is on the here and now. The one player really impeding their ability to add freely to the roster is Ryan Callahan. While GM Steve Yzerman has excelled at extending most of his core below market value, the six-year, $34.8MM contract for Callahan was a mistake. Injuries limited Callahan to just 18 games in 2016-17, but last year he played in 67 games yet he only managed to score 18 points. Callahan’s days as an impact player are over, but he is still being paid like one at $5.8MM. While Tampa Bay can manage this season with close to $3MM in cap space, they would have more to work with without him. However, Callahan’s contract will really present a major road block next summer, when the Bolts need to re-sign Brayden Point, Yanni Gourde, Anton Stralman, and more. There is no doubt that Yzerman will look to unload Callahan’s contract before it comes to that point.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Nikita Zaitsev – six years, $27MM remaining

The Maple Leafs severely jumped the gun when they rewarded Nikita Zaitsev with a seven-year deal after his rookie season in 2016-17. Although Zaitsev was an import, making his NHL debut at 25 years old, his situation epitomizes why bridge deals exist. Toronto sought to lock him up long term and gave him nearly a maximum term at $4.5MM, just $500K less per year than top defender Morgan Rielly. In his encore performance last season, he showed that he is not worthy of the salary nor length of that contract, dropping from 36 points to 13 points for the year, turning the puck over at an alarming rate, and eventually becoming a healthy scratch. This team simply can’t afford the type of long-term mistake that they made with Zaitsev. While it’s nice that they have Reilly, John Tavares, and Nazem Kadri signed long-term, it’s Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander they need to worry about. The Maple Leafs will have to balance multiple expensive, long-term deals moving forward and would love for Zaitsev’s to not be one of them.

Vancouver Canucks: Loui Eriksson – four years, $24MM remaining

It seems unlikely that the recently-signed deals for Jay Beagle and Antoine Roussel will work out well, but they at least deserve some time. Loui Eriksson has had his time and has done nothing with it. While the Canucks aren’t under any cap pressure, they can’t enjoy seeing Eriksson’s $6MM cap hit – the highest on the team – on the books for four more years, especially when the bulk of his front-loaded salary has already been paid out. Eriksson was brought in with an expectation that he would be the ultimate fit with Daniel and Henrik Sedin. Instead, he has scored just 47 points combined over two seasons, less than his final season total with the Boston Bruins. The Sedins are now gone, the team is trying to get both younger and more physical and defensive-minded, and Eriksson is simply an expensive poor fit. There’s not much more to say about a player who desperately needs a change of scenery and a team that wants him gone.

Vegas Golden Knights: None

The Golden Knights are riding high after an outrageously successful first season in the NHL. It is highly unlikely that they see anything wrong with their current contracts, almost all of which were either hand-picked or signed by GM George McPhee. Give it some time and that could change. Reilly Smith is notorious for a significant drop in production in his second year with a team, but is signed for four more years at $5MM. Paul Stastny for three years at $6.5MM per seems like a solid deal, but he has always produced better surrounded by equal talent. Does Vegas have enough to justify his signing? A $2.775MM cap hit for Ryan Reaves doesn’t seem to make a whole lot of sense. Finally, there’s the three-year, $21MM extension for heroic goalie but also 33-year-old well-worn vet Marc-Andre Fleury, which could end poorly. And this isn’t even counting what could be a massive reactionary contract for one-year breakout star William Karlsson. The Knights don’t see any problems right now after finding immediate success, but if they slide significantly in year two, things could get ugly.

Washington Capitals: T.J. Oshie – seven years, $40.25MM remaining

No, it’s not Tom Wilson. The call of the question is which contract each team wants to trade, not which is objectively the worst. Wilson’s contract does seem excessive, but he is just 24 and could grow into that salary (doubtful but possible). Plus, the organization loves what he brings to the team. T.J. Oshie on the other hand is heading in the wrong direction. Oshie has done what he was brought in to do: help the Capitals win the Stanley Cup. It took a max eight-year term to keep Oshie off the market last summer and now Washington has their Cup but also has a 31-year-old with diminishing returns signed for seven more years. Oshie could absolutely still help the Capitals over the next few years, but it’s doubtful that he will be back in 60-point range in that time. He also will be nothing more than a cap space vacuum when he’s in his late thirties making $5.75MM. Oshie is a great player and one of the more likeable guys in the league, but this contract has little upside left. The Capitals would at the very least consider trading Oshie now, which can’t be said for most of their other core players.

Winnipeg Jets: Jacob Trouba – one year, $5.5MM remaining

The list ends with a tricky one. Is $5.5MM a fair value for Trouba? An arbitrator thinks so and the Jets would likely agree. However, Trouba’s contract has been a nightmare for the team. The young defenseman clearly does not want to be in Winnipeg and has set himself up for yet another arbitration clash next summer, after which he will bolt in free agency. The Jets have no long-term security with Trouba and that meddles with their future planning. With Blake Wheeler, Tyler Myers, and several others also in need of new contracts next summer, the Jets don’t need another Trouba arbitration award cutting into their cap space just so that he can walk after the season. The team will definitely look to get maximum value in a trade for Trouba over the next season.

Pittsburgh Penguins Re-Sign Tristan Jarry

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The Pittsburgh Penguins have their final restricted free agent wrapped up. The team has announced a two-year contract extension with backup goalie Tristan Jarry that carries a cap hit of only $675K: a $650K salary in 2018-19 and a $700K salary in 2019-20. On top of a friendly salary, the deal is also of a two-way nature this season before transitioning to a one-way contract next year.

It is unlikely that Pittsburgh GM Jim Rutherford could have done any better with this contract. The Penguins are perhaps in worse shape going up against the salary cap ceiling next season than any other team in the league. Pittsburgh currently has all but $1MM of their available cap space committed to a projected 23-man roster than looks unlikely to change much. The team already had to make a salary cap dump earlier this off-season, trading capable winger Conor Sheary to the Buffalo Sabres in order to also offload underacheiving defenseman Matt Hunwick. There have been some questioning how the team could re-sign one of the most well-regarded goalie prospects in the pros and not have to make another similar move. Yet somehow Rutherford was able to convince Jarry to sign a) for close to a minimum salary, b) for multiple years, and c) on a two-way deal in the upcoming year. For a 23-year-old former second round pick who has incredible AHL numbers and had a solid first NHL season in 2017-18 behind an injury-prone starter, that seemed impossible. If Jarry again appears in 26 or so games and posts a .908 save percentage and 2.77 GAA or better in either of the next two years, this contract will be an amazing value for the Penguins.

The Penguins may still not be off the hook, however. Jarry’s two-way contract and waiver exemption will make it easy for the Penguins to move him up and down through the organization to relieve starter Matt Murray and slated backup Casey DeSmith when necessary – and recent history has shown that Murray is likely to miss time at some point. Yet, call-up’s for Jarry, as well as players like Zach Aston-Reese, Jimmy Hayes, and Zach Trotman, will eat away at what little cap space the Penguins have. It may be possible for them to get through the season as currently structured, but if Rutherford wants some more flexibility to maneuver his roster, don’t be surprised if another cap-relieving trade is still completed at some point. Until then though, Rutherford deserves some credit for locking up all of his restricted free agents and putting together a well-rounded roster given his uncomfortable cap scenario.

The Case For A Tristan Jarry Offer Sheet

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The art of the offer sheet is all but dead in the NHL. As The Athletic’s Craig Custance writes, there have only been eight offer sheets in the salary cap era, all but one have been matched, and none have been signed since 2013. It remains a shadowy threat for every GM looking to lock up his young restricted free agents, but at this point is more myth than reality. Custance even conducted a poll of nine GM’s that implied a feeling across the league that no offer sheets are coming this off-season. Even with attractive targets like the cap-strapped Detroit Red Wings’ Dylan Larkin, the Calgary Flames’ newly-acquired Noah Hanifin, and a key piece of the Toronto Maple Leafs’ young core, William Nylander, none of the GM’s could see a realistic spot where making an offer would be worth the effort as the team would always be able to match.

What about thinking outside the box and not looking at the top targets but at the team most unlikely to match? The Pittsburgh Penguins are not getting any sympathy from teams around the league. Winners of two of the last three Stanley Cups, a playoff team every year since 2007, and home to the best player in the league, the Penguins have had a great run and it’s unlikely to end any time soon. While many teams fear the backlash associated with poaching young players through offer sheets, Pittsburgh is perhaps the only team in the league that could come under attack and no one else would mind. The Penguins have also put themselves in a position that makes them easy prey. CapFriendly currently estimates that the team has just $745K in cap space heading into next season. Even if Jimmy Hayes fails to break camp or Zach Aston-Reese is sent down – the only foreseeable options, the Pens are still left with no more than $1.5MM in space and will need room to maneuver during the season.

Pittsburgh has just one restricted free agent left to re-sign: 23-year-old goaltender Tristan Jarry. Jarry has not been considered an offer sheet threat for a couple of reasons. The first is simply that he has yet to prove that he is a true NHL-caliber goalie. Jarry was a star at the junior level with the WHL’s Edmonton Oil Kings and was drafted in the second round by the Penguins in 2013. His first two pro seasons were spent entirely in the AHL, expect for one spot start in Pittsburgh, and he made the transition look easy, posting strong numbers through 78 combined games. Last season was a deviation from that smooth upward trajectory. The departure of Marc-Andre Fleury left Jarry as the primary backup to starter Matt Murray and the NHL level proved to be a little more difficult. Jarry had an up-and-down season with streaks of both good and bad play. He also struggled when he was returned to the AHL in favor of Casey DeSmith or briefly Antti Niemi. However, at the end of the season Jarry’s line of a .908 save percentage, 2.77 goals against average, and .609 quality start percentage in 26 NHL appearance was more than respectable for his first year in the bigs. Has he proven without a doubt that he can be an NHL regular or reliable backup? No, but the potential is there.

The other reason that Jarry would seem to be a strange offer sheet target is that he is waiver-exempt. Jarry is too young and inexperienced to have lost his waiver protection. This means that a team could hypothetically offer far above market value and multiple years and the Penguins could simply match it and stash Jarry in the minors without a second thought. The only problem is that Pittsburgh especially could not leave Jarry in the AHL for a whole season, nevertheless multiple. Since Murray became a fixture in net for the Penguins in 2015-16, he has made 111 appearances in three seasons with no more than 49 games in any year. In that same time, the Penguins have used six other goaltenders. Excluding Fleury, who was the starter in Murray’s first season and split time with him the following year, Jarry, DeSmith, Niemi, Mike Condon and Jeff Zatkoff have had to make 59 appearances over the past three years – more than half of Murray’s games played. Pittsburgh’s injury-prone starter clearly needs multiple quality options behind him until he can prove himself over a full season. DeSmith, who admittedly outplayed fellow rookie Jarry last season but in 12 fewer starts, may struggle to even backup Murray this season, nevertheless replace him for short stretches with untested minor league journeyman John Muse – the only other Penguins goalie – as the backup. The Penguins need a third-string goalie who costs as close the minimum against the cap as possible. If Jarry was to sign an offer sheet for even $1.5MM AAV, Pittsburgh would struggle to move that contract back and forth or keep him on the roster all year long. A team with ample cap space and a well-off ownership group could easily improve on that offer as well. Only moving out salary or injured reserve space would conceivably allow the Penguins to keep Jarry at that price or more.

At the end of the day, an offer with just the right amount of salary and term would be hard for the Penguins to match in their current state. Sure, they could simply sign a proven veteran free agent to a minimum deal and move on, but losing a promising young netminder would be a blow. On the other side of the table, it would only cost a team at most a third-round pick – the compensation for any deal with an AAV under $2.03MM – to land a young, high-ceiling goalie who is still waiver-exempt. If Jarry excels at the NHL level, they made a great deal; if he struggles, he can be sent to the AHL risk-free for further development and may still turn out be a great deal. The rest of the league would hardly mind seeing Pittsburgh and wheeler-dealer GM Jim Rutherford baffled by an offer sheet as well. It seems to be a win-win. Will it happen?

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