NHL Draft Lottery Odds For First 15 Picks
In under two hours, a disappointing season for one team, or three depending on the results, won’t hurt as much if they are fortunate enough to land a top pick in the 2017 NHL Draft. The Draft Lottery kicks off at 8:00 PM ET and will determine which teams, if any, leapfrog their fellow non-playoff teams to earn a shot at one of the top prospects in the draft, coming up on June 23rd.
Starting in 2016, the NHL increased the stakes of the draft by putting pick #1 and picks #2 and #3 up for grabs, increasing the excitement of the lottery and also disincentivizing “tanking”, by making it possible for the worst team in the league to drop out of the top three entirely. In 2016-17, that was the Colorado Avalanche, who were historically bad with just 48 points on the year. For perspective, the Vancouver Canucks finished second-to-last with 69 points – 8 more wins than Colorado. Making things more difficult for the Avs tonight is the addition of the Vegas Golden Knights expansion team to the league starting this season. A lottery system normally based upon 14 teams was increased to 15, with everyone else’s odds being adjusted to accommodate the newcomers. Vegas was given the same odds as the third-worst team in the league, the Arizona Coyotes, and were guaranteed a top top six spot.
So, 15 teams have a shot at picks #1-#3 tonight and no team can slide more than three slots back from their regular season finish. Based upon the odds given to each team for a lottery pick, below are the complete odds of all 15 teams in the running for tonight’s NHL Draft Lottery. Be sure to check back in afterwards to see the results of tonight’s event – one that could re-shape the draft outlook in a major way.
NHL Draft Lottery Notes: Odds, History, Viewing
For the fourteen teams that missed the playoffs and the expansion Vegas Golden Knights, they have one thing in common: they’re hoping Bill Daly is holding a card with their logo on it, announcing that they have the first overall pick.
At 7pm central, NBC, CBC, and Sportsnet will show the NHL Draft Lottery as the Colorado Avalanche lead all teams in terms of percentage for receiving the #1 pick. Below are the odds:
Colorado Avalanche — 18.0%
Vancouver Canucks — 12.1%
Vegas Golden Knights — 10.3%
Arizona Coyotes — 10.3%
New Jersey Devils — 8.5%
Buffalo Sabres — 7.6%
Detroit Red Wings — 6.7%
Dallas Stars — 5.8%
Florida Panthers — 5.4%
Los Angeles Kings — 4.5%
Carolina Hurricanes — 3.2%
Winnipeg Jets — 2.7%
Philadelphia Flyers — 2.2%
Tampa Bay Lightning 1.8%
New York Islanders — 0.9%
TSN has a lengthy writeup on the history of the lottery and how the current format differs from other versions. The biggest change for the draft is that instead of the worst team being guaranteed, at worst, a second overall pick, they are only promised a top four pick. This was placed to discourage teams from “tanking” to draft top-end talent, which hasn’t completely negated the idea of tanking as Toronto won the right to draft Auston Matthews last season with the #1 pick while securing the worst record in the NHL.
What’s new to 2017? From Sportsnet:
For just the second time in NHL draft lottery history, the top three picks are in play. This rule was implemented by the league in 2016 to dull incentive for any team to finish lower in the standings (i.e., tanking).
The odds of winning the second and third draws increases on a proportional basis depending on which team claimed the previous draw.
The addition of a 15th lottery team, Vegas, into the mix also affects the winning percentages.
This draft is different too, since the top two picks for the first time in three seasons are not considered the “generational talent” that Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, Matthews or Patrik Laine were when looking back at the one and two overall picks respectively.
This isn’t to besmirch the top two candidates, Nolan Patrick or Nico Hischier. After all, “can’t miss” prospects have fooled scouts and analysts before while prospects that scouts didn’t think were as good sometimes exceeded expectations.
But before the talent can be chosen, there needs to be an order. Tonight will determine that.
Specifics:
Time: 7pm CST
Where to watch: CBC, Sportsnet, NBC
Arizona Coyotes Fire Newell Brown, Doug Soetaert
The Arizona Coyotes have fired both assistant coach Newell Brown, and Tucson Roadrunners GM Doug Soetaert. The team has also decided not to renew the contracts for pro scouts David MacLean and Jim Roque. Brown had been with the team since 2013, and in the league as an assistant coach since 1996. The Coyotes, amid a terrible season on almost all accounts, ranked among the league’s worst in both powerplay and penalty kill. The team clearly wanted a different face for next year as they try to turn the franchise around.
Soetaert, put in charge of the Roadrunners when John Chayka was hired last summer, watched the AHL team miss the playoffs by 11 points in their first season. Prior to this year the team had been known as the Springfield Falcons—not to be confused with the current Springfield Thunderbirds, who were previously the Portland Pirates—where they had made it past the first round of the Calder Cup playoffs just once in their last 19 seasons. It’ll be even more turnover at the top next year, when a new GM will be in place.
Arizona GM John Chayka released a statement on the moves:
I’d like to thank Newell, Doug, David and Jim for their contributions to the club. They are all good people but we believe these changes are necessary in order to improve our organization. We wish them the best in the future.
It will be interesting to see where each lands, but even more interesting to see who Chayka brings in to replace them. After hiring Mike Van Ryn and Steve Potvin last summer, as development and skills coaches respectively, perhaps one of them will be on the bench next year alongside Dave Tippett. There will also be a lot of experienced NHL coaches available even after the Sabres and Panthers fill their current vacancies.
Snapshots: Bruins, Chayka, Canadiens
The Boston Bruins’ GM Don Sweeney met with the media today, and Fluto Shinzawa of the Boston Globe reported on many of his answers. The executive put the pressure on himself to improve the Bruins after their first-round exit, saying that their middle-six needs the most work.
Sweeney also said that he’ll likely go with the 7-3-1 expansion draft option and that he won’t reveal what’s next for Ryan Spooner, the latter of which is especially interesting. Spooner didn’t play in the elimination game for the Bruins, and is a restricted free agent this summer. Many teams would have interest in the 25-year old should Boston feel his time is up as a Bruin.
- Though John Chayka has been linked to the Buffalo Sabres GM search, Craig Morgan of AZ Sports is here to quash any thoughts of him leaving the desert. Morgan reports that the Coyotes would deny any request of permission to talk to Chayka about a job, though he makes it clear that that doesn’t mean Buffalo has yet. It would have been shocking for the Coyotes to allow Chayka to leave so soon after giving him the reins, even if it was to an Eastern Conference team near his hometown. Chayka has a lot of work still left to do in Arizona if he’s to turn that team around and establish them in the city.
- Count the Montreal Canadiens as the latest suitor for John Tavares, despite his repeated intention to stay with the New York Islanders. Eric Engels of Sportsnet writes that the Canadiens should do whatever it takes to acquire the superstar center should he become available. Though the Tavares-sweepstakes aren’t real just yet, the bigger point of the Engels piece is that the Canadiens still need that #1 center they’ve been after for so long. With the clear message that Alex Galchenyuk isn’t considered the future of that position any longer, the Canadiens will be on the hunt all summer.
Latest On Buffalo Sabres’ GM Search
The Buffalo Sabres have been without a General Manager for nearly a week now, and owner Kim Pegula told John Vogl of the Buffalo News that they have already “put a lot of work” into the search for a replacement. The team has started holding interviews according to John Shannon of Sportsnet, though he has been told that they’ve not yet asked permission to speak with Dean Lombardi. The Sabres would need to get the Los Angeles Kings’ permission, because of the way firings work in the NHL.
“Relieved of their duties” is the term teams use when coaches and executives are still under contract—which Lombardi was—are fired, retaining their rights around the league. It’s why often teams like Columbus and Edmonton had to give up draft pick compensation even though John Tortorella and Peter Chiarelli had both been fired by their teams. While the compensation aspect was eliminated last year, the fact that you still need to ask for permission to speak with them remains. It would be unlikely that the Kings would deny the Sabres access to Lombardi, but perhaps it signals that he isn’t on their list.
Instead, Craig Custance of ESPN and Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet made an interesting connection to Arizona’s John Chayka, who does have ties to the Niagara area after going to school at Brock University in Saint Catharines, Ontario. The Canadian college town sits about 35 minutes away from Buffalo, and is still the home of Stathletes, the advanced analytics company that Chayka founded before being plucked away by the Coyotes. The Pegulas claimed that they wanted experience in the role, and even though he’s just 27 Chayka now has a full year operating in the league.
Friedman also lists Julien BriseBois (Lightning), Chris Drury (Rangers) and Mark Hunter (Maple Leafs) as possibilities, while several other names have been floated in various reports. Our own poll here on PHR ended with Lombardi as the overwhelming favorite for the job, with former Sabres’ President of Hockey Ops Pat LaFontaine as the runner up.
It will be interesting to follow over the next week or so who Buffalo eventually installs in the position, and if he will get to pick in the top-3 during his first entry draft. On Saturday, the Draft Lottery will be held to determine the order of selections, with Buffalo holding a 7.6% chance at the top selection. Even if they were to secure another top-five pick like they have in the past, another excellent player would be added to a young stable that still has the potential to grow into a contender.
Wild Notes: Dubnyk, Vezina Finalists, Yeo
It was a tough day for the Wild’s Devan Dubnyk tweets Sportsnet’s John Shannon, who allowed the game-winning overtime goal to Magnus Paajarvi in today’s Game 5. The veteran goaltender, who is coming off a great 2016-17 season, yielded four goals in what turned out to be their season-ending game. To make matters worse, Dubnyk, who was a candidate to be a finalist for the Vezina Trophy this year, was not selected. The NHL announced their finalists today as Washington Capitals’ Braden Holtby, Columbus Blue Jackets’ Sergei Bobrovsky and Montreal Canadiens’ Carey Price.
Still, the 30-year-old Dubnyk remains a cornerstone for the franchise after finishing the season, having played 65 games with a 2.25 GAA and a .925 save percentage. He is also locked up contractually until the 2020-21 season.
The team should be expected to contend for another few years as they also have the core of their team locked up for the next few years behind veterans Mikko Koivu, Zach Parise, Jason Pominville and defenseman Ryan Suter. The team’s youth is also ripening with solid seasons from Mikael Granlund, Nino Niederreiter and defenders Jared Spurgeon, Mathew Dumba and Jonas Brodin.
The team may have some tough decisions for the upcoming expansion draft. The veteran team is sure to lose a quality player, and must contend with the No Movement Clauses of Koivu, Pominville, Parise and Suter. That leaves only a handful of spots left, depending on which path the Wild chooses to take. Tough decisions will have to be made about several players, including Jason Zucker, Erik Haula, Chris Stewart as well as veteran Eric Staal, who went down during Game 5. Even young defensemen like Brodin and Dumba could be exposed as well.
The team only has a handful of unrestricted free agents, namely Martin Hanzal and Ryan White, both acquired at the trade deadline from Arizona to help with their playoff run. The team must decide if they want or able to being one or both veterans back to the team next season.
- One consequence to the Wild’s ouster in the playoffs will benefit the Arizona Coyotes. When Minnesota traded for Hanzal and White at the trade deadline, the team sent their 2017 first-round pick, a 2018 second-round pick and a conditional fourth-round pick in 2019 as well as prospect Grayson Downing. To the Wild’s benefit, that 2019 conditional fourth-rounder will remain a fourth-rounder. However, the series loss will allow the Coyotes to get a better pick than they had expected. The Wild at the time of the trade had the top record in the Western Conference and many figured that the pick would land in the high 20’s. Now the Wild could be handing a pick as early as No. 23 to the Coyotes for Hanzal and White, who are both unrestricted free agents in the offseason.
- Blues head coach Mike Yeo said he has no special feelings about beating the Wild, the team that fired him during the 2015-16 season. “It’s not about me. I’ve been sincere when I’ve said that. I don’t think that what I’m feeling right now would be any different if it was any other team.”
Morning Notes: Sobotka, Domi, Draisaitl
The St. Louis Blues are enjoying a swift thumping of the Minnesota Wild in their first round series, and while much of that has to do with the outstanding play of Jake Allen (the thumping could easily be a whimper, should he have not saved 114 of 117 shots so far) the team has been lifted up by a late season acquisition. When Vladimir Sobotka terminated his KHL contract early and re-joined his NHL squad it was like a big trade deadline acquisition, Blues captain Alex Pietrangelo tells Stephen Whyno of the Associated Press.
Sobotka indeed represents a big addition for the Blues, and will for the next three years. The team has collected an impressive group of forwards and have spread the money around pretty nicely. Only Vladimir Tarasenko and Paul Stastny make more than $6MM per season up front, and with Robby Fabbri, Ivan Barbashev and Zach Sanford all giving them quality play on their entry-level deals, the team can afford to keep them all. Re-signing Stastny after next season will be tough, which may make him a trade deadline candidate similar to Kevin Shattenkirk this year.
- Max Domi wants to “pick his battles” a little better, after spending eight weeks on the shelf with a broken hand after a fight this season. Dave Vest of NHL.com details his season and how he is looking to improve on his consistency next year. The 22-year old center will be eligible for an extension on July 1st, and will be one of the key players the new management staff will need to lock up long-term. The Coyotes currently have no forwards signed past the 2018-19 season, but that could change this summer with a new deal for Alexander Burmistrov or extensions for Domi or Tobias Rieder. Still building for the future, they could also jump into the free agent waters if they feel like they’re close enough to contend for the playoffs next season.
- Leon Draisaitl was the latest to spear a player in the groin, getting frustrated with the 7-0 pounding his team took at the hands of the San Joe Sharks. Sportsnet asks if he should be suspended, and the league will decide at some point today. Draisaitl has no history of supplementary discipline, and Chris Tierney—the unfortunate target of the spear—returned to the game with no apparent injury. If he did get a game, it would be a big blow to an Oilers team that is trying to get back on track after being pummeled by the more experienced Sharks in game 4.
Morning Notes: Krueger, Bernier, Coyotes
Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet woke the hockey world up this morning with some news on the Vancouver Canucks head coaching vacancy. When he reached out to Ralph Krueger about the rumored interest, the former Edmonton Oilers head coach replied “I have had some interesting chats these past weeks, but my focus remains fully on the Saints for now.” The Saints of course is referring to the Southampton Football Club with which Krueger holds the chairman role and has since his 2014 exit from hockey.
Krueger of course coached the European team at this fall’s World Cup of Hockey, ushering them all the way to the final game against Team Canada. Kruger held the Edmonton job for just one season before being dismissed, but many around the hockey world believe he could easily step behind an NHL bench once again. His players at the World Cup praised him tremendously, and there have been rumors since his exit that he would eventually make his return to the sport.
- It wasn’t just an overtime winner that thrilled Maple Leafs fans last night, but a goalie switch for the Anaheim Ducks. Jonathan Bernier came on in relief of John Gibson last night, and helped the Ducks claw their way back from a 4-1 deficit. While it’s not clear if that would ever warrant a start from the former Leaf, their fan base would clearly welcome it. The Maple Leafs would receive a draft pick if the Ducks made it to the Finals with Bernier starting more than half the games; a second-rounder if they were to win it all, and a third should they lose in the final series. Gibson allowed four goals on 16 shots, but will likely get back in the net with the Ducks up 3-0 in the series.
- The Arizona Coyotes are hoping the Minnesota Wild can claw back from their own 3-0 deficit to the St. Louis Blues. When the Coyotes traded Martin Hanzal to Minnesota at the deadline, they agreed to a condition that would see them receive a draft pick based on how many series the Wild win in the playoffs. Should the Wild be eliminated by the Blues, Arizona will get a 2019 fourth-rounder, but if they somehow climb back it could move all the way to the second round with two series victories.
Pacific Notes: Getzlaf, Ritchie, Miska
While much of the pre-series chatter of the Flames-Ducks playoff series centered around how the Ducks would be able to defend against Flames’ stars Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan, Game 1 reversed those thoughts. After Anaheim’s Ryan Getzlaf took control of Friday night’s game, people now wonder how Calgary might be able to stop him instead.
The Orange County Register’s Eric Stephens writes the 31-year-old scored the opening goal 52 seconds into the playoff series, then assisted on Rickard Rakell‘s game-tying goal and then led the penalty killing unit in the final minutes to hold on for the victory. “He was huge for us last night,” said Rakell. “I mean, he did it all. When he plays like that, I think everybody else just wants to follow him. Hopefully that can just keep going”
The oft-overlooked Getzlaf has been leading the team with his energy and also has led the team in minutes played in Game 1. He fared well on faceoffs winning 12 of 20 Friday as well. Getzlaf has also been taking the lead on power plays, creating new problems for the Flames. “He’s got such good vision and poise with the puck,” Flames penalty killing defenseman Michael Stone said after Game 1. “He hangs on to it. You think he’s going to do one thing and he changes up and does something else. He’s got all the weapons when he’s back there looking at the whole ice.”
Other Western Notes:
- Ducks’ forward Nick Ritchie is expected to return to the lineup after a two-game suspension for tonight’s Game 2 playoff game against the Flames. Ritchie was suspended for the regular season finale and Game 1 of the playoffs for punching Chicago Blackhawks defenseman Michal Rozsival on Apr. 6. Ritchie finished the season with 14 goals and 14 assists in 77 gacmes this season. Because of his return, prospect Ondrej Kase was sent back to San Diego. Kase had two shots on goal in Game 1.
- The Arizona Coyotes have agreed to sign the University of Minnesota-Duluth freshman goaltender Hunter Miska, who led the Bulldogs’ hockey team to the NCAA Championship game last month. Duluth News Tribune’s Matt Wellens writes that Miska, who went undrafted, will forgo his final three years of eligibility to sign with the Coyotes. The 21-year-old backstop posted a 2.20 GAA and a .920 save percentage in his lone season for UMD. For Arizona, it gives the Coyotes a young prospect to develop after a season in which Arizona finished with the third-worst Goals Against with a 3.15. This is the second year in a row that Minnesota-Duluth has lost their starting goalie to the NHL. Last year, sophomore goalkeeper Kasimir Kaskisuo signed with the Toronto Maple Leafs.
West Notes: Reddekopp, Keller, Agostino
The Los Angeles Kings have signed officially signed Chaz Reddekopp to a three-year entry-level deal. The 20-year old seventh-round pick of the Kings in 2015 was set to become a free agent should the team not have gotten him under contract by June 1st. A big defender, Reddekopp had 43 points in a breakout campaign with the Victoria Royals, but still wasn’t shy about dropping the gloves to defend a teammate.
With Reddekopp now signed the Kings have just one player, Matt Schmalz, whose exclusive rights would expire this June should they not get him under contract. After two disappointing years since being drafted, Schmalz may be left to fend for himself this summer.
- Clayton Keller and Noah Hanifin have been added to the Team USA squad for the upcoming World Championships in Germany. That will make four teams for Keller this year, as he’s suited up for Team USA at the World Juniors, finished his first year at Boston University, signed and played three games with the Arizona Coyotes and will now represent his country once again alongside other NHL stars. The young forward helped lead the Junior squad to gold in January, and will try to take this team to the podium as well.
- Kenny Agostino has been named the AHL’s Most Valuable Player after an 83 point season. The 24-year old played seven games with the St. Louis Blues, but spent most of his season dominating the lower level with 59 assists in 65 games. Picked by the Penguins in the fifth-round in 2010, Agostino hasn’t made an impact at the NHL level yet and wasn’t even tendered a contract by the Flames last summer—they acquired him in the Jarome Iginla deal of 2013. The Blues signed him to a one-year deal, making him an unrestricted free agent again at season’s end.