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PHR Originals: 12/19/16 – 12/25/16

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Here are some of the original stories from PHR this week:

  • I looked at the scrutiny surrounding the Detroit Red Wings’ Gustav Nyquist, and wondered if it was truly warranted. I look more at team performance, and advanced metrics to make the case that the organizational decisions with personnel, and not Nyquist, are the cause of the Wings’ ills.
  • Gavin asked our readers what their teams needed for Christmas, and it was the most commented on article of the week.
  • Gavin also reflects on Kyle Okposo’s career with the Islanders and where he stands in franchise history.
  • Brett analyzed previous post-roster freeze trades, especially since speculation surrounds a number of teams, specifically Colorado, who may be moving players.
  • Brian puts the 25th pick from the 2005 NHL Draft into the hands of the readers. At #24, readers chose Darren Helm for the St. Louis Blues.
  • Finally, Glen wrapped up the week’s five key stories. It was not a good week for goalies.

Western Conference Notes: Maurice, Blues, Jankowski

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Despite a talented roster led by #1 center Mark Scheifele (31 points in 33 games), team captain Blake Wheeler (26 points), rookie phenom Patrik Laine (19 goals) and big blue liner Dustin Byfuglien (22 points), the Winnipeg Jets have a disappointing 16 – 17 – 3 record and are three points out of the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. It’s perhaps not surprising that reports began circulating suggesting the job of veteran bench boss Paul Maurice could be in jeopardy, but as Paul Wiecek of the Winnipeg Free Press writes, there is simply nothing to those rumors.

Wiecek points out that the Jets ownership is “loyal to a fault,” and references former head coach Claude Noel as an example of that loyalty. Noel served as the team’s head coach for their first two-and-a-half seasons in Manitoba but mustered just a record of 80 – 79 – 18 and failed to lead the Jets to the postseason before being dismissed during the 2013-14 season. Wiecek believes the team kept Noel around “long after it had become readily apparent to everyone else that an AHL coach was all Noel was ever going to be.”

The scribe also suggests the team still believes Maurice is the right coach to turn “a room full of young talent and inexperience into the kind of club that can compete night in and night out with the best in the league.”

Finally, in response to the belief the Jets have under-performed, Wiecek takes the position that the team has performed exactly as should be expected; like a young team with plenty of peaks and valleys.

It should also be noted that the Jets play in a tough division, one that sent five teams to the postseason a year ago. While the Central may not be as strong this season as the Metro Division, an argument can certainly be made that they could easily boast five playoff squads again this spring

Elsewhere in the West:

  • Jeremy Rutherford hosted his weekly chat with readers of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch recently and tackled several issues related to the Blues. Naturally much of the talk was about how the Blues can improve their roster and while there may not have been much in the way of concrete trade rumors, Rutherford acknowledged the team desperately wants to add both speed and a proven top-six center ahead of the deadline. Of course the one asset St. Louis might be able to move to address their needs is defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk, who is set to hit unrestricted free agency next summer. Though as appealing as Shattenkirk might be to other teams, his value is limited unless any team looking to acquire the puck-moving blue liner has an indication they might be able to extend the pending free agent. It’s also not certain the Blues will be too interested in dealing Shattenkirk if they are in possession of a playoff berth at the deadline. Last season, GM Doug Armstrong held onto David Backes and Troy Brouwer, both of whom would leave the team after the season and demonstrating the veteran GM will only sell off an expiring asset if it improves his chances to win today.
  • The Calgary Flames surprised some when they went off the board to select center Mark Jankowski in the first round of the 2012 draft. While most teams weren’t sold on Jankowski, then-Flames GM Jay Feaster called him the best player in the draft and compared the pivot to former Calgary star Joe Nieuwendyk. It took four years but Jankowski finally made his NHL debut earlier this season, and as Kristen Odland of the Calgary Herald reports, he is looking forward to working his way back into the league and earning a permanent position. But first, Jankowski, in his first full season as a pro, knows he has to dominate at the AHL level: “Obviously it was a good experience to get up there to see what it’s all about and play my first game, to see what type of game it is,” he said. “It’s a lot faster and guys are bigger and stronger. They’re all just a bit more skilled. Coming back to Stockton, it’s huge motivation for me to see what it’s like if I want to be there full-time.I have to come down here and dominate and play my game.” 

Blues Place Paul Stastny on Injured Reserve

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Andy Strickland tweets that Blues center Paul Stastny has been placed on injured reserve while Wade Megan has been called up from Chicago. Lou Korac adds, however, that the move is only for a game, and that it a roster spot for Megan.  Jeremy Rutherford tweets that he’ll be ready for next Wednesday’s game.

Stastny was expected to miss tonight’s game after suffering an upper body injury against Dallas on Tuesday. Head coach Ken Hitchcock indicated that he was hit high during the game, and added later that should he miss tonight’s game, he would be ready to go next week.

This season, Stastny has 17 points (7-10), and according to Rutherford, is logging nearly 20 minutes of ice time per game. Rutherford reports that he will be missed most in the faceoff circle, where he takes 36 percent of the Blues’ draws and is sixth in the league with a 54.7% winning percentage.

The 26-year-old Megan, meanwhile, has 24 points (13-11) in 28 games this season with Chicago. Should he play tonight, it will be his first appearance in an NHL game.

Evening Snapshots: Spectacular Sophomores, Hartman

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  • The Hockey News’ Jared Clinton makes his case for five players who avoided the dreaded sophomore slump this season. At the top of his list is Edmonton’s Connor McDavid, who Clinton writes is the reason for the Oilers’ turnaround this season. Had it not been for the clavicle injury last season, McDavid would have had one of the best back-to-back seasons that rivaled Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin. Next is the Blackhawks’ Artemi Panarin, who Clinton believes the Hawks have to absolutely re-sign at all costs. That would certainly cause some financial posturing, but he believes Panarin to be a devastating personnel loss should he go elsewhere. The Winnipeg Jets’ Nikolaj Ehlers, the Hurricanes’ Jaccob Slavin, and the Blues’ Colton Parayko round out Clinton’s top five.
  • The Blackhawks have been on a tear lately and rookie Ryan Hartman has been one of the brightest spots for Chicago. Chris Hine writes that the young forward has learned quite a bit about being more patient on the ice and not corralling penalties as he would have in the past. Hine describes him as an irritant, there’s a reason for Hartman’s change of play:

“You have an opportunity to play in the NHL and be in the lineup every night. If you’re going to take penalties and do that kind of stuff, you’re not going to be in the lineup for long,” Hartman said. “I just try to stay out of the box as much as possible, and it related to me being on the ice more.”

Drawing penalties instead of causing them has been a boon for the Hawks and the young forward. He’s also shown a knack for scoring timely goals. Hartman notched the winner against San Jose on Sunday night and already has six on the season. Playing for a coach known to favor veterans, Hartman is making the most of his chance and certainly justifying his playing time from Joel Quenneville.

Metro Division Notes: Wennberg, Vesey, Schenn, Raffl

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The Columbus Blue Jackets are one of the league’s biggest surprises this season under head coach John Tortorella. The team’s points-percentage is #1 in the league, and they boast the NHL’s top-ranked man-advantage unit as well. While the play of rookie defenseman Zach Werenski and goaltender Sergei Bobrovski is garnering much of the attention, third-year center Alexander Wennberg has played a vital role in the team’s surge this season.

Wennberg debuted in 2014-15 and tallied 20 points in 68 games as a rookie. He would double that points total in 69 contests in his sophomore campaign but is in the midst of a breakout season in 2016-17 with 25 points in 28 appearances. If he maintains that pace he would finish with more than 70 points. According to Tortorella via Aaron Portzline of The Columbus Dispatch, Wennberg, now in his third professional season, has embraced the added responsibility that comes with experience.

“Before camp started, we talked about responsibility as a third-year pro,” Tortorella said. “He’s not a rookie anymore. He’s not feeling his way through the league anymore. He needs to take responsibility with his play, and he’s done that.”

For his part, the young pivot believes his physical development has allowed him to improve in all aspects on the ice.

“I’m bigger now, stronger,” Wennberg said recently. “It’s a hard league, the best in the world, and I was a young guy when I got here. Of course it’s tough. I do feel different this year. I know Torts better and he knows me better, too. So it’s good.”

Although known more for his skill, Wennberg recently had occasion to show he isn’t afraid of physical play. Friday night he dropped the mitts with Flames rookie Matthew Tkachuk after the latter delivered a big hit on Brandon Saad in the Jackets defensive zone. He may not have fared particularly well in the engagement but he certainly earned the respect of his teammates and his coach.

“I’ve talked since I’ve been here that I think Wenny needs to be more involved,” Tortorella said. “Not to fight, but to be more involved in the inside part of the game, and he’s done that this year.

“For him to stand in there – right in front of the bench – that’s important for camaraderie and the tightness of the bench to see that guy stand in there.”

Elsewhere in the Metro Division:

  • Jimmy Vesey spurned several teams when he agreed to terms with the New York Rangers this summer as an unrestricted free agent. Chief among them was the club who originally drafted the skilled winger in the 3rd round of the 2012 draft, the Nashville Predators. Of course everyone knows the story by now. Nashville GM David Poile thought Vesey would sign with the club upon the completion of his senior season at Harvard but Vesey had other ideas. Once it became clear the Predators would not be adding the young winger, the team pivoted and traded his rights to Buffalo in exchange for a third-round pick. Buffalo also failed to secure Vesey’s name on a contract and it was the Rangers who would add the talented prospect to their organization. Vesey is off to a strong start with the Blueshirts, registering 10 goals and 17 points in 31 contests. He’s already played against the Sabres in Buffalo and received a cold reception. Tonight, however, Vesey and the Rangers travel to Nashville where Adam Vingan of The Tennessean expects Vesey will receive a hostile welcome from Predators fans. Vesey certainly expects one and is looking forward to getting it over with: “I kind of have been knowing it was coming. It’s going to be the worst of it, and once this game is done with, maybe it’ll settle down.” Rangers bench boss Alain Vigneault doesn’t expect the atmosphere to distract the rookie: “I think this is the third time this is happened. He hasn’t shown at all that he’s been at all influenced by it. If the fans get their money’s worth, then I guess fine for them, but I know it’s not going to bother the young man at all.”
  • The Philadelphia Flyers had their 10-game winning streak broken today in Dallas, but the stretch of winning hockey has elevated the Flyers from a .500 club to one that comfortably holds a playoff spot. Coincidentally, their streak began at the same time Flyers head coach Dave Hakstol moved Brayden Schenn to center from wing, replacing him with Michael Raffl on the top line, as Sam Carchidi of Philly.com writes. Schenn initially centered the fourth-line for two games but has spent the past eight on the second-line and that trio has combined for 12 goals and 22 points since.

Poll: 2005 NHL Draft Take Two: Twenty-Fourth Overall Pick

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Hindsight is an amazing thing, and allows us to look back and wonder “what could have been.” Though perfection is attempted, scouting and draft selection is far from an exact science and sometimes, it doesn’t work out the way teams – or players – intended. For every Patrick Kane, there is a Patrik Stefan.

We’re looking back at the 2005 NHL Draft, which kicked off the salary cap era and ushered in many of the current NHL superstars. The question we’re looking to answer is knowing now what we didn’t know then, how different would this draft look now with the benefit of hindsight?

Here are the results of our redraft so far:

1st Overall: Sidney Crosby (Pittsburgh Penguins)
2nd Overall: Carey Price (Mighty Ducks of Anaheim)
3rd Overall: Anze Kopitar (Carolina Hurricanes)
4th Overall: Jonathan Quick (Minnesota Wild)
5th Overall: Kris Letang (Montreal Canadiens)
6th Overall: Tuukka Rask (Columbus Blue Jackets)
7th Overall: Bobby Ryan (Chicago Blackhawks)
8th Overall: Marc-Edouard Vlasic (San Jose Sharks)
9th Overall: Ben Bishop (Ottawa Senators)
10th Overall: James Neal (Vancouver Canucks)
11th Overall: T.J. Oshie (Los Angeles Kings)
12th Overall: Keith Yandle (New York Rangers)
13th Overall: Paul Stastny (Buffalo Sabres)
14th Overall: Marc Staal (Washington Capitals)
15th Overall: Patric Hornqvist (New York Islanders)
16th Overall: Niklas Hjalmarsson (Atlanta Thrashers)
17th Overall: Anton Stralman (Phoenix Coyotes)
18th Overall: Jack Johnson (Nashville Predators)
19th Overall: Matt Niskanen (Detroit Red Wings)
20th Overall: Justin Abdelkader (Florida Panthers)
21st Overall: Martin Hanzal (Toronto Maple Leafs)
22nd Overall: Andrew Cogliano (Boston Bruins)
23rd Overall: Kris Russell (New Jersey Devils)

Now we move forward to the 24th pick, which was held by the St. Louis Blues.

To recap how this works:

  • We will go through the 2005 NHL Draft and have our readers select, through a voting process, who they think should have been taken with the selection.
  • The entire first round will be redrafted, spanning picks one through thirty. The new selection is chosen by the majority of votes.

Back in 2005, the Blues selected T.J. Oshie out of Warroad High School in Minnesota.  While a lot of first round high school picks haven’t panned out, this selection certainly has as he has turned into one of the best players in this draft class.

Oshie spent seven seasons with St. Louis, picking up 310 points (110-200-310) in 443 regular season games as well as nine points (5-4-9) in 30 postseason contests.  In 2015, the Blues dealt him to Washington in exchange for Troy Brouwer, goalie prospect Pheonix Copley, and a 2016 3rd round pick.  Brouwer only spent one year in St. Louis but was a big part of their playoff run last season with 13 points in 20 games.

With the Capitals, Oshie continues to thrive in this, his second season with the team.  This year, he has nine goals and five assists through 20 games after a 51 point season in 2015-16.  He also had his best playoff performance last year with 10 points (6-4-10) in 12 games.

Oshie has also made a mark on the international stage, playing in a World Juniors tournament, three World Championships, the 2014 Olympics (where he’s famous for his shootout performance), and the most recent World Cup of Hockey.

With the 24th pick of the 2005 NHL Redraft, who should the Blues select?  Cast your vote below!

Mobile users, click here to vote.

Comparative Standings: One Year Ago

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With the first third of the season completed for all but Columbus (who have amazingly played just 26 games, six fewer than the Winnipeg Jets), there have been some huge swings from a year ago.

Those Blue Jackets are the league’s most improved team, with a staggering 18 more points through 26 games than last season. Their huge swing is only matched by the Dallas Stars equally amazing drop-off of 18 points the other way. The Jackets can attest their improvement to the development of young players like Zach Werenski and Alexander Wennberg, while the Stars have seen a litany of injuries to their star players including Jason Spezza, Patrick Sharp and Johnny Oduya.

The Central Division as a whole is off to a slower start this year, with only the Chicago Blackhawks bettering their 2015-16 record. The Colorado Avalanche, expected to take a step forward with their young core has suffered the exact same fate with 23 points through 27 games.

The two biggest Canadian rebuild stories, Edmonton and Toronto have both improved, though not as largely as the fan bases in each city might have you believe. Four points for the Maple Leafs and five for the Oilers lend credence to the idea that it’s not how you start, it’s how you finish that counts. Though both franchises have a lot to look forward to, keeping up an advanced pace for an entire season is extremely difficult. The two teams finished last season with just 69 and 70 points respectively.

Below are the current standings. In parenthesis is the difference in points through the same amount of games last year.

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This Week In Hockey Blogging: A Dozen Articles To Read

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Here are a handful of articles from various hockey bloggers this week:

Winging It In Motown looks at the ongoing discussion of toughness in the NHL and how it’s unfairly used to criticize players.

Pension Plan Puppets  closely scout Auston Matthews.

Lighthouse Hockey likens their Islanders to the Walking Dead and take a deep dive into how the Islanders got to where they are.

The Committed Indian examines how the salary cap has created the parity intended, but in a ho-hum way.

Raw Charge analyzes Tampa Bay’s problem with developing first round draft picks.

Down Goes Brown lists the ten lies that every hockey fan is guilty of reciting.

Blueshirt Banter talked to Ryan McDonagh about the team and the season so far.

Bleedin Blue suggests that the Blues look into why they’re struggling so much on the road.

Copper and Blue discusses everything from Connor McDavid’s wingers to players in Bakersfield who should see time with the big club down the road.

Pensburgh compares Bryan Rust’s three-goal performance to a legendary Penguin’s five goal performance.

Hockey Wilderness  suggests two players for Chuck Fletcher to acquire.

Finally, Canucks Army offers advice to ownership: new management.

We’re always looking to add to the list. Tweet us some articles you like @prohockeyrumors or let us know through our comments section.

Atlantic Division Snapshots: Pastrnak, Sabres, Ryan

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The Boston Bruins may be in the midst of a mediocre season but one bright spot, both today and for the future, has been the breakout performance of 20-year-old winger David Pastrnak. The Czech born forward has 18 goals in just 23 games to start the 2016-17 campaign, a figure which has already eclipsed his career-high by three. Pastrnak is playing out the final season of his ELC and presuming he’s able to continue to pile up the points, it’s certain he will cash in big this summer on a new contract, as Joe Haggerty of CSNNE writes.

Granted, it’s unlikely Pastrnak, who is also averaging better than a point-per-game, will be able to maintain his scoring pace throughout the season but his prolific start makes it easy to envision a 30-goal, 60-point campaign is a strong possibility. Haggerty speculates that if Pastrnak reaches those plateaus, he would be in line for a deal comparable to those awarded to Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan and Nathan MacKinnon, among others in recent seasons. That means the value of a multiyear arrangement could reach $6MM or more annually on a long-term deal, depending on how many free agent years Boston is able to secure.

While the Bruins would certainly be more than happy to lock up the services of a talented youngster like Pastrnak through his prime seasons at that price, there is what Haggerty considers a “nightmare scenario,” that could come into play. If Pastrnak continues filling the net consistently and posts a platform season similar to that which Vladimir Tarasenko posted in 2014-15 – 37 goals and 73 points – his price tag could go well beyond the $6MM – $6.5MM mark. Tarasenko inked an eight-year, $60MM pact with the Blues on the heels of his breakout campaign two years ago and that could represent a target for Pastrnak if his able to attain that level of offensive production. With the salary cap likely to remain at or near the $73MM mark, and after locking up winger Brad Marchand to a lucrative new deal earlier this year, the Bruins will have to hope they can get Pastrnak extended at a rate which better fits their long-term salary cap situation.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Division:

  • The Buffalo Sabres, led by sophomore Jack Eichel and buoyed by an owner willing to spend to improve his club, would certainly have to be considered a team on the rise in the Atlantic Division. While a postseason berth in 2016-17 might be a long shot at this point, the Sabres should begin to contend for the playoffs as soon as next season. However, as John Vogl of The Buffalo News notes, the situation today could be much different had the club done a better job of drafting in the early-to-mid-2000’s. Former first and second-round choices taken while Darcy Regier was the team’s GM listed by Vogl include: Marek Zagrapan, Philipp Gogulla, Dennis Persson and Drew Schiestel were all high draft picks chosen between 2005 and 2007 and none even played a single NHL game. Conversely, players the Sabres could have selected – Alec Martinez, James Neal and T.J. Oshie – have played key roles for contending teams. While it may be fun to play “what if,” with players the Sabres could have had, it’s also important to note that had the team experienced more success as a result of better drafting under Regier, Buffalo would likely not have franchise building blocks Rasmus Ristolainen, Eichel, Sam Reinhart and Alexander Nylander in the organization today.
  • The return of Bobby Ryan and the play of several of Ottawa’s younger forwards has allowed first-year GM Pierre Dorion to resist temptation and stay the course with the team’s current roster, writes Ken Warren of the Ottawa Sun. It would have been understandable if Dorion had looked to make a deal to add some extra offense with Ryan out with a hand injury but the veteran scoring winger missed only three games. Dorion admitted he made some calls in the aftermath of the Ryan injury and while he will continue to look at different avenues to improve his club, there is no immediate pressure to make a trade.

Custance’s Latest: Projecting Those Most Affected By Flat Cap

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The NHL’s Board of Governors (BOG) are in the midst of two days of meetings designed to cover several important topics before wrapping up today. Chief among them – and of particular interest to team executives as well as fans of the sport – is an early projection of the 2017-18 salary cap ceiling. Commissioner Gary Bettman advised the BOG to expect a modest increase, perhaps as much as $2MM, if any at all. Specifically, Bettman suggested the salary cap may remain flat. Naturally, that may present problems for several teams already close to the cap ceiling while pending free agents might find their respective markets depressed due to fewer clubs being in position to take on big salaries.

Craig Custance of ESPN.com wrote about a few teams and players who stand to be affected the most should the salary cap ceiling remain flat for the 2017-18 campaign. Among those he listed were Artemi Panarin, who will be a RFA coming off his ELC and in line for a massive raise. As we already know, Chicago is tight up against the cap and have already been forced to deal away key contributors due to a lack of cap space – Brandon Saad, Patrick Sharp and Teuvo Teravainen, for instance. They’ll likely have another tough decision to make given the situation.

Tampa Bay and their GM, Steve Yzerman, are two others Custance mentions as being impacted by a flat cap. The Lightning are set to watch Tyler Johnson, Jonathan Drouin and Ondrej Palat become RFAs this summer and with just less than $60MM in cap commitments already on the books for 2017-18, it’s highly unlikely that Yzerman will be able to re-sign all three players.

In addition to those already brought up by Custance, there are several other clubs who will have a difficult time navigating the salary cap if the ceiling remains at or near the $73MM mark. Here are a few of those teams:

  • Los Angeles Kings – The Kings already have just more than $60MM committed to the 2017-18 salary cap with forwards Tanner Pearson and Tyler Toffoli slated to become RFAs next summer. Toffoli tallied career highs in goals (31) and points (58) in 2015-16 and while his scoring out put is down some this year, he could still easily command upwards of $4MM annually on a new contract. Pearson, meanwhile recorded 36 points last year and is on pace for about that same total this season. That could well push his salary north of $3MM next year.
  • New York Rangers – The Blueshirts might be in a bigger bind than the Kings. They have about $63MM tied up in 2017-18 commitments with top-six center Mika Zibanejad and checking forward Jesper Fast, among several others, scheduled to become RFA’s. On top of that, the team will likely be in the market for a blue line upgrade and unless they can find a way to unload one of Dan Girardi or Marc Staal, the Rangers won’t have enough cap space to make an impact addition in free agency.
  • Detroit Red Wings – The Red Wings are projected to have less than $5MM in cap space next season with Thomas Vanek hitting free agency. Additionally, five other players will be RFAs, including Tomas Tatar and Tomas Jurco. It’s hard to imagine the Wings being anything more than a fringe playoff contender next season given their current roster and with virtually no salary cap space available next season, as it’ll be tough for the team to improve through free agency.

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