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Money To Move Out In Potential Pittsburgh Trade

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Often lost in the narrative chronicling the Penguins’ need for a third-line center is the fact that money will almost certainly head the other direction in any trade. Currently, Pittsburgh is a respectable $3.82 MM under the cap ceiling, but a few factors should be considered. Firstly, GM Jim Rutherford will almost surely allot at least $1 MM in space to acquire necessary rentals at the trade deadline. Second, his defensive and center depth is rather weak overall, so any move would likely not be the last before a post-season pursuit. Third, and perhaps most important, multiple contracts on the horizon will force uncomfortable decisions on wing and top-four defense.

With Matt Cullen departing for Minnesota, the Penguins’ third best center is Carter Rowney, just one season removed from AHL plug duty. Zach Aston-Reese could fill in temporarily, but it’s not ideal for his first professional season. The teams needs an upper-echelon third center option, and available options are supremely limited league-wide. Rutherford claimed to have half a dozen options in July, but with the summer expiring the options are far fewer. Although Rutherford is playing his cards close to his chest, it’s nearly inconceivable that the Penguins go into the new year without greater certainty at that position. A move needs to be made.

On defense, the team will need to determine the future of multiple players. It’s a fair assumption that the team will bank on the improved health of Norris-capable Kris Letang, for better or worse. Justin Schultz is also safe, as is the dependable Brian Dumoulin. In that fourth position, will the Pens re-sign impending UFA Ian Cole, or will his shot-blocking mentality start to show its toll? Is Olli Maatta worth $4.083 MM on a cash strapped team? Will Derrick Pouliot finally clean up his turnovers and make an impact in the Steel City and make either expendable? If Maatta’s skating doesn’t substantially improve, it’s a safe bet his contract will be the one off-loaded in any transaction, regardless of potential and upside.

On offense, the team will also need to make painful judgments. Patric Hornqvist is entering his final year of his contract, and at 31 years old, how will his body hold up multiple seasons into a new contract? Would Bryan Rust be able to replace his intangibles and hard-nosed offense at a fraction of the cost? His internal value is incredibly high, but he’s been relegated to a third-line role for the foreseeable future. Additionally, how devoted is Pittsburgh to the Phil Kessel model? It seems incredibly far-fetched that the team might consider moving Kessel, and they would undoubtedly receive a lesser player in any trade. Still, his $6.8 MM is a strain on the overall forward structure. With Jake Guentzel looking to land a substantial raise in two seasons, Kessel may not be entirely untouchable. Finally, could an accessory piece be moved off the roster as a throw-in for a potential elite third-line center? Impending RFA Scott Wilson isn’t the most glamorous of names, but he could easily earn decent money on his next contract and provide depth scoring for a re-building team. Carl Hagelin’s $4 MM was well above his current rate of production, and his blistering speed could be a tempting add for any squad.

In the final evaluation, Pittsburgh will almost certainly part with a roster player if they are to land a significant piece at the 3rd-line center position. Maatta seems most likely, and has for some time, but the selling teams will have a definite upper-hand in all negotiations, and the money complicates matters. The team has shown time and again it is willing to part with high-end draft picks, but any impending deal will necessarily be more intricate, considering the dearth of the organization’s prospect pool and other contributing factors.

Carolina Hoping For Darling Of A Season

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Carolina have been perceived as ’winners’ of this off-season, despite accomplishing only minor upgrades on paper. Outside of signing their own RFAs, Carolina acquired Marcus Kruger and Trevor van Riemsdyk in trades. In the free agent market, they acquired the services of senior Justin Williams via UFA. Although solid acquisitions, Carolina was nowhere near a contender prior to these transactions. So to what do we attribute the grand sense of optimism in and around Raleigh?

Summarizing Adam Gretz of NBC Sports: Scott Darling. Darling was acquired back in April after the Blackhawks were eliminated from playoff contention. Subsequently, the team relieved itself of Eddie Lack’s services by offloading him to the Calgary Flames, while relegating long-time Cane Cam Ward to the backup role. Gretz rightfully spotlights Darling as a potential saviour to the team in the short-term. Darling certainly has the credentials to backstop an NHL team, as his career .924 save percentage is quite impressive. Last year, he tallied a 18-5-5 record – he seems ready to perform. Gretz also showcases the fact that Carolina allowed the second-least amount of shots against in the past three seasons (behind Los Angeles), while the goals-against-average was on the lower end of the middle pack. He points to the success of Carey Price on a middling Canadiens squad as rationale to hope for a resurgence in the standings.

Although Gretz is correct in assuming Carolina will likely improve, it doesn’t necessarily ensure a playoff berth. In the Metropolitan division, even the Islanders’ 94 points were insufficient to land the team Spring hockey. Four teams (Washington, Pittsburgh, Columbus, NY Rangers) all finished above 100 points. The Hurricanes finished with 87. Although Victor Rask and Sebastien Aho are nearly certain to have improved outputs, the competition remains fierce. The team will need to avoid multiple game losing streaks and start the season off on the correct foot. Although impressive down the season’s stretch, Carolina couldn’t clinch their first berth since 2009. If coach Bill Peters is to remain in his current position, he will need quick, inspiring success in 2017.

Although an 8-point improvement is certainly within the realm of possibility, Carolina will need to rely on health and the steady progression of its young players. Elias Lindholm and Teuvo Teravainen could both push for 20 goals, and Aho could easily become a star. If tides turn for the worse, however, expect GM Ron Francis to be proactive in his approach, despite the re-assuring words provided to Chip Alexander of the News & Observer. Francis certainly has room to be active on the trade market as well, with 8 upcoming free agents (4 UFA, 4 RFA) in 2018, and a wealth of space to maneuver. With an astounding $17.2 MM in space, it will nevertheless be difficult for Francis to successfully lobby for the acquisition of a large contract, considering the tenuous owner situation. Still, ownership should allow its GM marginal leeway in the hopes of catapulting the Canes into the the post-season. If Francis does go on the hunt for additional roster players, it would likely take the form of additional scoring or a veteran defender. Those first few months in Raleigh very well could determine the season’s trajectory, so those who are hungry for movement might look toward the tar heel state for early action.

Nugent-Hopkins Watch Might Start Early

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With the recent signings of Leon Draisaitl ($8.5 MM AAV), and Connor McDavid ($12.5 MM), there are those around the league who are anxious to see how GM Peter Chiarelli will deal with the inevitable cap crunch on the horizon. David Staples of the Edmonton Journal contends that the possibility of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins being moved in the short-term is overblown. That said, it stands to reason that Nugent-Hopkins will be a focus of trade speculation for a long while. Milan Lucic is the only other forward with as heavy a cap hit, also at $6 MM AAV, but he has a no-movement clause to accompany his deal. If money is moving out, Nugent-Hopkins could be the man in the cross-hairs.

Staples provides a useful breakdown of salary for the next three seasons, and shows how minimal that cap crunch might end up being. Still, it’s expected that Edmonton will attempt to build on its successful season and attempt to compete this year. If they want to add this season, they can certainly do so at the deadline. With their current $8.33 MM in space they’ll have over $30 MM in deadline space, so it seems reasonable to anticipate short-term buys. That said, any additions will complicate the cap picture in 2018-19.  They’ve already moved multiple pieces who initially had great value, notably Taylor Hall, Nail Yakupov, and Justin Schultz, and received little in return, with the exception of Adam Larsson (for Hall). It seems unlikely that Chiarelli would risk having another top pick and valuable asset thrive elsewhere just in the name of saving a few dollars.

The trade of Jordan Eberle certainly alleviated some of the pressure that Nugent-Hopkins is bound to face, but that may only be temporary. His 18 goals and 25 assists in a full season are a sharp decline from even his rookie totals. For Nugent-Hopkins to cement his place on a team with two momentous contracts, his production will need to improve dramatically. He’ll certainly see more scrutiny this campaign if he struggles for long stretches, as the concern over money will only make fans and reporters more critical. If the 24 year-old were to be traded, it would most certainly be next summer, when the crunch really starts to surface as McDavid’s hit kicks in. Even after another season under 50 points, Nugent-Hopkins would likely bring in a sizable haul via trade, which might fill out the rest of the forward corps at a cheaper price in Edmonton. Thankfully for the Oil, the organization has multiple players who can slot in at center if necessary – Draisaitl, Mark Letestu, Jussi Jokinen, and Ryan Strome all have experience up the middle and could slot in after McDavid. Nugent-Hopkins will have to stand well above his competition at camp and throughout the year to prove his long-term value to the organization. If it’s another season of being outclassed by the likes of Letestu, he could find himself in the midst of intense speculation.

Latest On Alexander Wennberg, Josh Anderson

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The Edmonton Oilers got their big name restricted free agent locked up when they signed Leon Draisaitl to an eight-year, $68MM contract yesterday and perhaps it will start a run on RFA signings. According to Aaron Portzline of The Athletic, the Columbus Blue Jackets have had contact with Alexander Wennberg and Josh Anderson this week to start up negotiations again. Portzline’s quick to point out that this shouldn’t be misconstrued as progress, but the two sides hadn’t spoken in weeks.

Wennberg stands as probably the most important RFA still on the market outside of David Pastrnak in Boston, as he’s coming off a 59-point season in which he proved that he can be a #1 center. His 46 assists tied for 15th in the league, and he developed into one of the most dangerous powerplay weapons in the league. His playmaking ability is unmatched on the Blue Jackets, and heading into his age-23 season should get a hefty raise.

Anderson on the other hand is a sort of lineup tweener, who likely shouldn’t be played in your top-6 but still scored 17 goals last year. His production in limited minutes was a huge part of the Blue Jackets’ success but they have to be wary of paying for a possible career-high. Those 17 tallies came on an impressive 14.3% shooting percentage and could easily regress back to 10-15 this year. While he does offer physicality and versatility, Anderson doesn’t have high-end creativity or skill. While that won’t stop him from being an integral part this season, the Blue Jackets have some young players to pay in the next few years and can’t afford to tie up too much capital in a bottom six winger.

A Recent History Of Late-Summer RFA Signings

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The hockey world has been swirling around David Pastrnak for the past few days, as negotiations with the Boston Bruins drag on late into the summer. Fans of the team are beginning to get nervous that there might be something standing in the way of a long-term deal, even while the Bruins’ front office assures everyone that they won’t be moving on from their young star. It’s not just Pastrnak though, as this summer seems to have a disproportional amount of high-level restricted free agents still unsigned into the middle of August. Leon Draisaitl, Alexander Wennberg, Bo Horvat, Connor Brown, Damon Severson and Andreas Athanasiou and many more are waiting for their next contracts and inching closer and closer to missing some of training camp.

Naturally, anyone’s instinct is to think that the longer the negotiation goes on, the more animosity can be built between the two sides. This is simply not true, and it’s been shown time and again that some RFAs—especially those who are coming off exceptional seasons—are in for long negotiations. It’s hard to remember how many players make it late in the summer without contracts once the season begins, so here is some of the history of some high profile late-summer RFA signings the last few years:

2016

Sean Monahan signs on August 19th. Seven years, $44.6MM.

Cody Ceci signs on August 23rd. Two years, $5.6MM.

Ryan Strome signs on September 20th. Two years, $5.0MM.

Johnny Gaudreau signs on October 10th. Six years, $40.5MM.

Nikita Kucherov signs on October 11th. Three years, $14.3MM.

Rasmus Ristolainen signs on October 11th. Six years, $32.4MM.

2015

Jonathan Bernier signs on August 2nd. Two years, $8.3MM.

Brock Nelson signs on September 16th. Three years, $7.5MM.

2014

P.K. Subban signs on August 2nd. Eight years, $72MM.

Tyson Barrie signs on September 7th. Two years, $5.2MM.

Danny DeKeyser signs on September 20th. Two years, $4.4MM.

Nino Niederreiter signs on September 20th. Three years, $8MM.

Ryan Ellis signs on October 5th. Five years, $12.5MM.

Jaden Schwartz signs on October 5th. Two years, $4.7MM.

Ryan Johansen signs on October 6th. Three years, $12MM.

2013

Adam Henrique signs on August 27th. Six years, $24MM.

Mikkel Boedker signs on September 7th. Two years, $5.1MM.

Marcus Johansson signs on September 8th. Two years, $4MM.

Nazem Kadri signs on September 10th. Two years, $5.8MM.

Alex Pietrangelo signs on September 14th. Seven years, $45.5MM.

Derek Stepan signs on September 26th. Two years, $6.2MM.

Early Notes: Chychrun, Lack, Zadorov

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Jakob Chychrun’s season was put at risk when he suffered a knee injury in his offseason training that required surgery earlier this month. He wasn’t given a timeline, and the team announced just that the young defender was “out indefinitely.” While new Arizona Coyotes head coach Rick Tocchet still wouldn’t give a specific time frame, he did tell NHL Network that Chychrun will be back this season.

He’s just a beast. If this happened to somebody else, you might have a guy who’s out for the year.

Chychrun has long been known for his elite strength and conditioning, and it was part of what made him a first-round pick in the 2016 draft. A comeback will be an important part of any Coyotes season, as the team expects to compete this year for a playoff spot. After suiting up for 68 games in his rookie season, a big step forward was expected this year.

  • Eddie Lack knew he’d be sent out of town after the Carolina Hurricanes traded for and signed Scott Darling. Lack tells Hockeysverige in Sweden that Calgary was basically a dream scenario, reunited with Glen Gulutzan and paired with Mike Smith on a team expected to compete for the Stanley Cup. Lack has just one year left before becoming an unrestricted free agent, and if he can steal the starting job from Smith at some point he’ll be highly sought after on the open market.
  • Though there is still no announcement on a new Nikita Zadorov contract, Adrian Dater of BSN Denver isn’t worried. Reports have surfaced previously that Zadorov had already agreed to a two-year deal with the Colorado Avalanche, and Dater makes it clear that he won’t be heading back to the KHL.

Senators Passed Up Chance To Unload Ryan

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One of the few players who was heavily anticipated to become a Vegas Golden Knight did not – Bobby Ryan. Despite an above-average playoff performance in the Senators’ heartbreaking Conference Final run, Ryan has vastly under-performed relative to his contract. Instead of coordinating a deal to unload that contract to Vegas, they instead lost Marc Methot, perhaps the second best defenseman on the team in that Cinderella story. Methot’s contract was not perfect, to be sure, but Ryan’s deal still looms large over the team for years.

It should be noted that Ryan has been a consistent 50+ point producer prior to this season, where he tallied only 25 through 62 contests. He’s been on pace for over 50 every year since he was a rookie. That said, his fall from grace in 2016-17was concerning and dramatic. His puck control seriously declined, his decision making faltered, and his production took a nosedive. With only 12 goals, and coming off a hot post-season, the time was ripe for GM Pierre Dorion to take advantage of Vegas’ unique situation and rid himself of a bad contract. Earning $7.25 MM AAV for the next five seasons, Ryan is the 36th highest paid forward in the league, and second-highest on the payroll behind Erik Karlsson.

For those who believe such an arrangement could not have been worked out, merely look at some of the contracts Vegas did take on. The essentially retired David Clarkson’s $5.25 MM for the next 3 seasons was shipped out at the price of a first and a 2020 second. The perennially concussed Mikhail Grabovski was dealt for a similar package, which also protected some of the Islanders’ players. Vegas also didn’t shy away from taking veteran players with value – they selected James Neal (29 years old) from Nashville as well as David Perron from the Blues (29 years old). Certainly, with a little encouragement, George McPhee might have entertained the possibility of Ryan as a Knight. The price may have been steep, but Karlsson is in the prime of his career, while many players are looking for raises in the immediate future. Clearing Ryan’s albatross off the books may have gone a long way towards building toward a consistent contender.

Ultimately, Dorion decided against unloading a bloated contract in hopes that Ryan’s post-season revival was no mirage. With the UFA crop available, it’s difficult to blame the management for doubling down on the struggling winger. Five roster players will be UFA after this season, including Craig Anderson and Kyle Turris, while Mark Stone (RFA) has earned a raise. Karlsson will then be due a raise for 2019-20, as will five other forwards. The team will need to rely upon cost-effective ELC players and bargain contracts to continue holding pace with the rest of the Atlantic division. Only time will tell whether the Ryan decision was the correct one.

Rick Nash’s Future In New York

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While it may be premature to look ahead to the 2018 off-season and those players who will become unrestricted free agents, it seems that general managers are already turning their focus toward the future. Notably, Cam Fowler, Martin Jones, Carey Price, Marc-Edouard Vlasic have already signed extensions, while the Islanders are clearly making a John Tavares extension their top priority. When one looks at the list of 2018 UFAs so far out, there are many enticing names, including John Carlson, Kyle Turris, Cam Atkinson and many more. Yet, with perhaps the exception of James van Riemsdyk, most of the names on the list appear destined to re-sign with their current clubs, barring unforeseen developments. Of the names that seem possible to move on, Rick Nash jumps out above many others.

Since Nash came into the league in 2002-03, he’s been a remarkably productive winger. Among active players, his 771 career points puts him at 18th. The only younger players above him on the list? Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin, Eric Staal, Evgeni Malkin, and Ryan Getzlaf. Granted, Nash has started to show a serious drop-off in his production the last two season. He missed 35 games since the start of 2015-16 to injury, and totaled only 74 points in the 127 games he played. That’s not a poor figure, but when 23 goals for Nash is considered a positive season, it’s obvious that his prime years may be relegated to memory. Perhaps just as disheartening is his negative possession trend over that same time frame. His Fenwick and Corsi relative have consistently declined since 2012-13, and last season he posted a career worst 46.3% Corsi For.

With all that said, Nash is still an effective tool. He won’t make the $7.8 MM on his current contract, but considering how sparse the 2018 free agent list might actually be, he could find himself a long-term contract elsewhere in the league. The Rangers are already toward their cap ceiling with $71.9 MM on the books, and will have multiple RFAs to re-sign at the conclusion of the year. Notably Kevin Hayes, J.T. Miller, Jimmy Vesey, and Brady Skjei will all be due moderate raises. The team should have enough space to re-sign Nash to a reduced contract (assuming the cap continue to rise around $2 MM), but the team may be interested in accelerating a youth movement. Nash hasn’t under-performed since coming to Manhattan, but he hasn’t been the dominant marquee offensive player when they’ve needed him to be. Through 73 playoff games for NYR, he’s only scored 14 goals.

Nash has accumulated hard mileage due to the way he’s played the game, particularly early in his career. He was the primary offensive force for Columbus for many years, and consistently had to fend off multiple attackers using his frame. As the game has gotten faster over the last few seasons, size has meant less than it probably ever has. Nash is no slowpoke, but his power forward style is becoming less common and less effective as the game has transitioned. Nash will turn 34 at the conclusion of this contract, and he will likely seek out a longer term to assure his career safety. If New York is unwilling to make that commitment, he does have a modified no-trade clause which would complicate matters for GM Jeff Gorton would decide to move him. Nash has a list of 12 teams which he is allowed to be traded to, short of waiving the clause. It also seems unlikely that he will be traded, considering his still substantial role in the offense. If New York looks to be playoff bound when the deadline rolls around, it would be very difficult to ship him off for future assets. Consequently, there’s a very solid chance that this may be Nash’s last season in the Big Apple, and that he could attract a serious market next July. Despite his warts, Nash is a big-bodied winger who has shown he can finish, and shouldn’t be incredibly expensive.

RFA Extension Candidates

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While veteran players like Carey Price and Cam Fowler have received huge extensions this summer a full year before hitting the open market, some younger players aren’t usually locked up as early. We saw the Edmonton Oilers jump on Connor McDavid right away, handing him a $100MM contract before even dealing with their current free agents, and there are others who may see an extension before the season is up.

Teams often don’t want to commit to young players before they have to, unsure of how they’ll react to bigger roles or a full-time NHL position. Still, there are some who are already well established and deserve a long-term deal. It’s obviously up to them to decide whether they want to lock themselves into an extension before playing the year, as many can leverage a solid season into even more money. That said, some players just like the stability of a long-term contract. Here are some who could earn extensions before the end of the season.

Jacob Trouba – Winnipeg Jets

Trouba held out last year until the beginning of November, and made it clear he wanted a bigger role somewhere else. He didn’t see himself getting that opportunity in Winnipeg, where the team had Dustin Byfuglien and Tyler Myers penciled in ahead of him on the right side. As it happens, Myers was hit with injury and Trouba excelled in his increased role, logging 25 minutes a night and registering 33 points in just 60 games.

He’s now established himself as one of the best young defenders in the league and a key piece for Winnipeg going forward. They should try hard to sign him to an extension now, instead of letting this linger again and ending up in another hold out situation. Trouba has overtaken Myers on the depth chart, but allowing him to hold all the cards next summer would make for another messy situation, and it’s clear that he can provide ample value even on a big contract.

J.T. Miller – New York Rangers

Miller has always seemed like a good fit in New York, and signed an early deal with the Rangers last summer. He improved once again and continues to show why the team invested a 15th-overall pick in him. With 56 points in 82 games he was often the most dangerous player on the ice, and coming into his age-24 season he’s poised to put up even bigger numbers.

The Rangers have a ton of money coming off the books next summer with Rick Nash’s $7.8MM cap hit expiring, but will need all of it for extensions for some of their top young players. After committing big money to Mika Zibanejad this summer, they could lock in Miller now and provide some cap-certainty as they hit what will be a huge summer for the team.

Dylan Larkin – Detroit Red Wings

Larkin is coming off a down year and probably won’t want to take a discount because of it, but Detroit could lock him in as the face of the franchise going forward and start jettisoning other assets to continue the rebuild. They’re in no danger of him going anywhere next year, but it could be a clear sign to their fans that he’ll lead the next wave of Detroit success.

William Nylander – Toronto Maple Leafs

The Maple Leafs have some huge contracts coming up, with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner both entering similar circumstances to these next summer. Nylander is first up, and could be locked up to a long-term deal right now. Like Edmonton the team may want to see how much Matthews will cost them first, but it’s not like they’re heading for a series of bridge deals with Nylander. He’s a key piece who will be there for a long time.

Locking him up now gives you some idea of what there will be left for free agency next season, as it would be tough to go after anyone with Matthews’ negotiations not technically allowed to start until July 1st (though they often are discussed anyway). Toronto might be the busiest team in the league next year, as seven forward contracts are expiring.

Florida Panthers Re-Sign MacKenzie Weegar

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The Florida Panthers have finished signing their RFAs for the summer after announcing a one-year contract with MacKenzie Weegar. Weegar will play next year on a two-way deal, and will still be a restricted free agent next summer.

Weegar, 23, made his NHL debut this season after working his way through the minor league ranks. Drafted in the seventh round in 2013 (206th-overall), he first dominated the QMJHL and then made his mark on both the ECHL and AHL. The undersized defenseman has high-end offensive upside, but has struggled at times in his own end. Last year, he posted 14 goals and 36 points in 60 AHL contests but was held scoreless during his short NHL stint.

A legitimate option as a powerplay quarterback and sort of specialty player, Weegar would need an opening at the NHL level either through trade or injury to play a real impact on the Panthers this year. Ian McCoshen is probably ahead of him on the depth chart in terms of a full-time replacement, but that’s not to say Weegar won’t get at least some time with the team. If the Panthers are serious about moving Jason Demers, he could be a potential addition to a bottom pair that could be sheltered from tough matchups.

That said, it’s likely the AHL once again for the Memorial Cup Champion where he can try to set a new career high and evolve into one of the most valuable minor league blueline pieces in the league.

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