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Viktor Arvidsson

Snapshots: Ovechkin, Air Canada Centre, Predators

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Alex Ovechkin is coming off another disappointing playoff exit at the hands of the Pittsburgh Penguins, and earlier this offseason GM Brian MacLellan said that his superstar forward would need to train differently this offseason to make sure the speed of the game didn’t leave him behind. Ovechkin scored fewer than 50 goals in a full season for the first time since 2011-12, posting just 33 markers all year. It seems he’s taken it to heart, as a report from Tom Gulitti of NHL.com has Ovechkin showing up to optional workouts in Washington markedly thinner.

Ovechkin played last season at 239, but teammates are saying he’s definitely leaner this year which hopefully will translate into more success on the ice. It’s important to note that even though Ovechkin’s goal total dropped, he still posted 69 points due to a big jump in assists. The Capitals will begin the season on Thursday, October 5th when they take on the Ottawa Senators.

  • The Toronto Maple Leafs have reached a landmark agreement with Scotiabank for the naming rights to their arena. According to Rick Westhead of TSN the bank will pay $800MM (CAD) for the 20-year agreement that will change the name from the Air Canada Centre to Scotiabank Arena on July 1, 2018. The deal is the biggest naming sponsorship in North American sports history, and will make the incredibly wealthy Maple Leafs franchise worth even more. It marks the second NHL building named after the Canadian bank, following Calgary’s Scotiabank Saddledome. The Ottawa Senators’ Scotiabank Place was renamed the Canadian Tire Centre in 2013.
  • Any fans who bought a Viktor Arvidsson jersey during his breakout season last year will be disappointed today, as the team announced that he’ll be changing to #33 for next season. Frederick Gaudreau and Vladislav Kamenev will also change, claiming #89 and #91 respectively. Kamanev’s change is the most interesting, after he played just two games with the Predators last season. Though he was expected to press for a roster spot after another big AHL season, this actually may be more evidence that he’ll be given a chance with the NHL club at some point this year.

Nashville Predators Next Goal Is Locking Up Johansen

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The Nashville Predators got a major roadblock out of the way yesterday when they signed 24-year-old wing Viktor Arvidsson to a seven-year deal. The $29.75MM signing locks up another franchise cornerstone at a reasonable price. General manager David Poile has successfully worked out similar deals in the past that have locked up others like Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi, Mattias Ekholm and Ryan Ellis. In fact those five cornerstones on a Stanley Cup finalist team, will only cost them a $20.5MM cap hit combined next season, tweets LNH.com’s Arpon Basu.

However, the work doesn’t end there, according to NBC Sports Cam Tucker, who says the team now must turn their attention to No. 1 center Ryan Johansen. The 24-year-old center had a big year for Nashville, putting up 14 goals and 61 points. If it hadn’t been for a thigh injury in the playoffs, he could have shown his value to the team even more, although he still played in 14 playoff games, putting up 13 points. Despite that injury, Johansen should get quite a raise from a year ago.

Johansen, who was acquired from the Columbus Blue Jackets in early 2016 for Seth Jones, signed a three-year bridge deal at $4MM per season while with Columbus. Now, he should be up for an even bigger deal. The Predators should have more than $14.5MM to spend (according to CapFriendly), so money shouldn’t be an issue for Poile.

Viktor Arvidsson Signs 7-Year Extension With Nashville

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First reported byElliotte Friedman of Sportsnet, and then confirmed by Adam Vingan of the Tenessean, Nashville has secured a long-term deal to lock up their restricted free agent Viktor Arvidsson, forgoing the need for an arbitrator’s ruling. The crafty forward’s contract is good for 7 seasons, at an AAV of only $4.25 MM.

Arvidsson’s arbitration hearing took place earlier today, and the figures that were being thrown out earlier nearly assured that Nashville was bound to get a solid deal. Arvidsson asked for only one year at $4.5 MM whereas the team opted for two years at a mere $2.75 MM. Arvidsson was the team’s leading goal scorer, and one of the biggest surprises of the season. His offensive explosion helped carry the team to the Stanley Cup Final, and at only 24 should be a huge part of the team’s future for a long time. His advanced statistics, in addition to his 30+ goal season, really make the player attractive league-wide. His 55 % Corsi For puts him in elite company among  top-six wingers facing similar level of competition.

Getting a 61-point winger on a cost-controlled contract for the next 7 years is truly impressive work for GM David Poile. It should be kept in mind that there is a small element of risk here, as this was a total breakout season after a mediocre first pro year which saw him score only 16 points through 56 games. if Arvidsson can maintain anywhere near last season’s level of productivity, though, he will be incredibly cost-effective. His remarkable progression basically made James Neal expendable in the expansion draft, and now it seems that Poile is confident enough to lock the player down for the foreseeable future. At only 5’9, the player has faced doubters who question his long-term value, but he is now unquestionably a core piece in Tennessee.

When taken in reference another of this year’s RFAs, Tomas Tatar was awarded earlier today with a deal worth $5.3 MM AAV. Granted, Tatar had three consecutive 50+ point seasons which led to that figure. Arvidsson may only continue to progress, securing himself as a truly elite winger. By extending Arvidsson for such a long period, Nashville managed to bring a potentially more productive player than Tatar in at a figure far less cumbersome.

Viktor Arvidsson, Nashville Predators Exchange Arbitration Figures

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Though Colton Parayko has avoided arbitration with the St. Louis Blues, the other hearings are still rapidly approaching. Viktor Arvidsson is set to have his heading on Saturday, and has exchanged figures with the Nashville Predators. The team has offered a two-year deal worth $5.5MM, while Arvidsson wants just one year at $4.5MM according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet.

The gap of $1.75MM seems quite large, but unlike in the MLB an arbitrator does not have to side with one figure or the other. The actual salary could come somewhere in between. Just like Parayko however, the team still has 48 hours to try and get a deal done that would lock up Arvidsson longer than two years.

Arvidsson’s case is an interesting one. The undersized winger wasn’t drafted until he was already 21 years old, and even then just in the fourth round. Another year and a half in the minors, and he has just 142 NHL contests under his belt at age-24. He did break out this season for 31 goals and 61 points and no one doubts his talents, but as Mike Furlano explained this week there are certain things you can and can’t bring up in arbitration hearings. Arvidsson’s relative inexperience is definitely something the team will use against him.

The fact that he’s 24 also poses some problems to a long-term deal. Arvidsson is just three years away from unrestricted free agency, so any term beyond that would be paying for years that he believes would be his prime earning period. If he believes he can maintain this production (and why wouldn’t he) it would be a huge bidding war for his services on the open market. It’s difficult for the team to extend that much capital and give him anything close to fair market value on his UFA years though after just one season, making it a tough negotiation for both sides.

RFAs Headed For Payday In Arbitration

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As the list of the players who have filed for arbitration was released earlier today by the NHLPA, a few names stick out as those due a meaningful raise. Arbitration is a tricky process to reliably predict, but it’s a safe bet these names will see their cap hit rise substantially.

 

Brian Dumoulin – D – Pittsburgh Penguins

There was a time when the young Dumoulin was a well-kept secret in the league, overshadowed by the far flashier play of Kris Letang. Dumoulin’s accolades this last playoff year certainly didn’t go unnoticed, and as the lone defensive defenseman in their core group, he probably holds the greatest job security on the team’s blueline. He doesn’t put up points – only one goal in the last two seasons, but he blocks shots and drives possession while eating a ton of minutes against top competition. As analytics are utilized more and more, his case only gets stronger. A contract well over $4 MM is certainly looking possible.

Colton Parayko – D – St. Louis Blues

This is the name seen most commonly associated with offer-sheets this summer, and with good reason. Parayko plays with the mentality of an old-time defenseman, but he can skate quite well for a large (6’6) man. He’s only had two seasons in the NHL, but he’s impressed since he first took the ice. Again, he isn’t a massive offensive force (he scored 3 goals last season), but he’s already averaging over 21 minutes a night with near equal starts in both the offensive and defensive zone. He’ll be hurt by the quantifiable stats factor, but he’s a big body with a rare right-handed shot to boot. This contract could look relatively cheap compared to his next, if he continues along this course. He should cost around $5.5 MM.

Ondrej Palat – F – Tampa Bay Lightning

Others will look to the undersized center Tyler Johnson as most likely to get a payday. But don’t over look Palat’s consistency – it may give him an edge with arbiters. Johnson does have his 72 point campaign to lean on, but that was now two full seasons ago. The fact that both players couldn’t break 20 goals in the last two seasons will bring their prices back down to Earth. Palat has grown into his role on the team and back-checks with a ferocity not often seen in younger stars. Johnson is no slouch either – they’ve both accumulated Selke votes over the years. These are two pivotal pieces of the Lightning, and their upcoming contracts were a big reason Jonathan Drouin was traded away to Montreal. GM Steve Yzerman will happily lock both up, but he will be hoping for figures under the $6 MM mark.

Viktor Arvidsson – F – Nashville Predators

This would have been an unlikely name on such a list even last December, when you consider how truly meteoric Arvidsson’s rise was. His value in arbitration will be deeply interesting – the shifty winger has played himself into the core of the team within a season. He really only has 2016-17 and the long playoff run to hang his hat on, as he scored only 16 points through 56 games in 2015-16. This year was a remarkable offensive explosion, with 30 goals and 31 assists. At only 5’9, Arvidsson has really shocked many onlookers by how easily he’s adapted to the physicality of the NHL game. His talent has never been in question, and with his production now well-established, it’s safe to believe he’s going to get a cushy award. How bad the damage will be is going to affect Nashville’s cap going forward – I suspect over $5 MM, but there are few comparables.

Mikael Granlund – F – Minnesota Wild

Granlund is perhaps slightly more enticing league wide than fellow Wild RFA Nino Niederreiter. He’s a marginally more cerebral player, and he plays the valuable center position. Neiderreiter is the more natural goal-scorer and larger frame, but Granlund has better PPG and has broken 30 assists thrice. Both players will get paid, as they both broke 25 goals last season and will be important pieces in the State of Hockey for some time. I think the more interesting thing to watch here is whether the Wild play it safe with Granlund and take a one year deal, or attempt to lock him up for longer. This was the first season he really scored with any consistency, but the Wild have shown their faith in the player by continually giving him over 17 minutes of icetime even when he struggled to produce. A one-year would easily command over $5 MM, whereas a longer deal could bring cost down.

 

Offseason Keys: Nashville Predators

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While expansion was the early headline in what will be a busy NHL offseason, there are still several other storylines for each team in the months to come. Here is a closer look at what lies ahead for the Nashville Predators.

While things didn’t get off to too good of a start for Nashville as they narrowly made it into the playoffs, they saved their best for last, giving the Penguins all they could handle in the Stanley Cup Final before Pittsburgh prevailed in the end.  Now, GM David Poile is tasked with trying to put the final pieces in place to help the Preds take that last step forward.  Here are some of the ways he can try to accomplish just that.

Replace Neal

Unable to strike a protection deal with Vegas, the Predators were hit hard at the expansion draft as they lost winger James Neal to the Golden Knights.  While Neal hasn’t blossomed into a high end top liner like some had hoped for, he has still hit the 20 goal market in every season of his nine year career which makes him one of the more consistent secondary scorers out there.

While Nashville’s forward depth stepped up in the playoffs, it’s tough to expect someone to step in and take over that level of production right away.  They have youngsters like Kevin Fiala or Pontus Aberg that could potentially fit the bill but the more prudent course of action would be to find a veteran replacement and allow the youngsters to ease their way into that role (or wait for more injuries to strike).

To that end, Poile has shown considerable interest in trading for Matt Duchene this offseason.  However, he hasn’t been willing to move one of his top four blueliners which has stalled talks.  The recent signing of Scott Hartnell basically replaces the production of Colin Wilson and with most of the top free agents now signed, the trade route is looking like a likelier course of action now whether it winds up being Duchene or someone else.

New Deal For Johansen

One of the big questions that came up when the Predators and Blue Jackets swapped center Ryan Johansen and defenseman Seth Jones back in early 2016 was Johansen’s contract situation as he was in the middle of his bridge deal.  For starters, he was going to be due a sizable qualifying offer of $6MM, one they recently extended to retain his rights as expected.

Nov 25, 2016; Nashville, TN, USA; Nashville Predators center Ryan Johansen (92) skates toward the net during the third period against the Winnipeg Jets at Bridgestone Arena. The Predators won 5-1. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY SportsThe bigger potential concern is where Johansen sits with regards to unrestricted free agency.  Although he’s only 24, the fact that he has six years of service time already makes him UFA eligible as of next summer.  If he wants to go that route next offseason, he can simply file for arbitration next week, go through that process, and hit the open market as a number one center in his prime.

Johansen has fit in quite nicely since joining Nashville and is their top pivot, one that they can’t afford to lose.  Because the arbitration filing deadline is fast approaching though, Poile will likely want to make a big push to get a long-term deal done in the coming days to get rid of any uncertainty as quickly as possible.  The early asking price to get that deal done is believed to be $8.5MM.

Short-Term Or Long-Term For Arvidsson?

Winger Viktor Arvidsson was one of the biggest surprises in the league in 2016-17.  After putting up just eight goals and eight assists in 56 games with Nashville the year before, he became a legitimate go-to scorer, tallying 31 goals and 30 assists in 81 games this past season.  He did so at the perfect time as he will hit restricted free agency this weekend.

Poile’s going to have a decision to make with regards to what type of contract to offer the 24 year old.  He sits three years away from unrestricted status so a bridge deal may only be a one year offer.  Given that Arvidsson is only a year removed from spending time in the minors, the safer play is to go short-term and see if his 61 points was a one-time thing or a sign of things to come.

On the flip side, if management is sold on him being able to provide a comparable level of production down the road, this is the time to try to lock Arvidsson up on what could prove to be a team-friendly deal later on.  With nearly $20MM in cap space per CapFriendly, they have the financial flexibility to pick which way they want to go with him.  Because of the big leap in scoring this season, his RFA case is one of the more intriguing ones to watch for this offseason.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Early Expansion Protection News: Capitals, Kings, Flames, Predators, And More

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The 2017 NHL Expansion Draft is an exciting process. If you’re too riled up to wait until the lists are officially submitted in the morning, you’re in luck. As could be expected, information leaks are flooding in on who was and wasn’t protected by their teams ahead of the deadline this afternoon. This list will be updated all night long as more news comes in:

  • One not so obvious choice has been made in Nashville. Adam Vingan of The Tennessean answered a question on the minds of many, reporting that the Predators did in fact protect forward Calle Jarnkrok. With the rest of the eight-skater list all but set in stone with goalie Pekka Rinne, defensemen Roman Josi, P.K. Subban, Ryan Ellis, and Mattias Ekholm, and star forwards Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen, and Viktor Arvidsson, the final forward spot came down to Jarnkrok, signed long-term, or James Neal, an elite scorer with just one year remaining on his contract. It seems that Neal will be open for selection, alongside names like Colton Sissons, Colin Wilson, and Craig Smith. Vignan adds that no deal has been struck between Vegas and the Predators to protect any of those players, with Nashville especially liking to retain Neal and Sissons.
  • Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported that, interestingly enough, young Detroit Red Wings defenseman Xavier Ouellet was not protected by his team. This is the first real surprise of the expansion process and the first protection news that doesn’t match up with PHR’s Expansion Primer projections. The 23-year-old skated in 66 games this season for Detroit, third most among defenseman, and his 12 points tied that of top-pair man Danny DeKeyser. Yet, Ouellett will not join DeKeyser and Mike Green in protection, instead beaten out by another teammate. GM Ken Holland, who has gotten the reputation of perhaps being too loyal, possibly chose aging veteran Niklas Kronwall over Ouellet. Hopefully that doesn’t come back to bite the rebuilding Red Wings.
  • Another name confirmed to be unprotected is young Vancouver Canucks center Brendan Gaunce. Vancouver sports anchor Rick Dhaliwal was told that that Gaunce, a 2012 first-round pick, did not make the protection list for the Canucks, expected to be a 7/3 format, meaning that the team saw him as outside the top seven forwards on the team. The 23-year-old two-way specialist has upside, but after registering just five points in 57 games last season, no one will blame Vancouver for that choice.

Finals Appearance Will Pay For Nashville Players

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Every year, there are players entering the final year of a contract will cash in on a solid playoff run. This year, Nashville has 11 players who are at the end of their deals – 6 to become unrestricted free-agents, and 5 restricted. Almost all will see a major jump in pay heading into next season.

Pontus Aberg has had a remarkable run for a relative unknown. The impending RFA has 5 points through 13 games, including two beautiful goals. He’s displayed top-six skill at times and is now on the national stage. Viktor Arvidsson was already looking for a major payday after scoring 31 goals and 61 points during the regular season. But his dominant speed and creativity, to accompany  12 playoff points, only solidifies the probability of an expensive deal. RFA Ryan Johansen is considered by most to be a number one center in this league, and it’s a solid bet Nashville will be looking to lock him into the distant future. After trading Seth Jones for his services a couple seasons back, it’s clear that GM David Poile has complete confidence in the player’s potential, honorary mayorship aside. Frederick Gaudreau emerged out of absolutely nowhere to become a shifty top-nine element, and although he’s far from a sure thing with 14 games under his belt, it’s likely the team will want to retain his services. Thankfully, the RFA negotiation process often benefits the team’s position, keeping prices from getting astronomical.

If the team wants to bring back captain Mike Fisher for another year, or add a big free agent, it is made all the more difficult by these outbursts of productivity. National exposure does go a long way to bring prices up, and depending on the team’s vision for the future, these new contracts could cause headaches down the line. Thankfully, most of Nashville’s core is locked up to reasonable deals in the longer term. Only sniper James Neal has his contract set to expire the following year, 2018-19. Without re-signing anyone, the team has 18 players under contract with somewhere around $17 MM in space.

Predators Notes: Fiala, Ellis, Expansion

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Predators left winger Kevin Fiala got the news he was looking for at the start of the season after making the team out of training camp and even starting on the first line.  It wasn’t long though before he started to drop down the depth chart and after collecting two points in ten games, he was sent back to the minors in November.

After a strong stint with their AHL affiliate (eight points in seven games), he was brought back to the NHL late last month and he is faring much better this time around.  He has three goals and an assist in seven games since rejoining the team and as Adam Vingan of The Tennessean writes, Fiala believes that his time in the minors has given him the confidence that was lacking earlier on in the year.

He certainly has earned the confidence of head coach Peter Laviolette as in five of his last six games, the 20 year old first rounder (11th overall in 2014) has played more minutes than his season average, including over 15 minutes in four of those contests.

When Fiala was recalled, the Preds were dealing with several injuries up front but now only Colton Sissons and Miikka Salomaki are on IR (and Salomaki, who has been out since mid-October, could be activated in time for tonight’s game against St. Louis).  Fiala has managed to stay in the lineup as those players returned and should stay in if Salomaki is indeed activated later today.  It’s still too early to suggest he has earned a full-time spot but with his recent play, he should have a longer leash this time around compared to the start of the season.

[Related: Predators Depth Chart]

More from Nashville:

  • Defenseman Ryan Ellis (along with Sissons) both participated in Monday’s practice and the 25 year old blueliner isn’t ruling out being ready to go against the Blues as well, writes Brooks Bratten of Nashville’s team website. Ellis was paired with Roman Josi at practice while Sissons took line rushes on the fourth line alongside Austin Watson and Calle Jarnkrok.
  • The play of winger Viktor Arvidsson could be creating some challenges for GM David Poile when it comes to the expansion draft. As Vingan notes in a reader mailbag, the Predators are likely to protect eight skaters instead of the standard seven forwards and three defensemen.  That would allow them to protect their top four blueliners but only four forwards.  Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen, and James Neal would figure to have three of those spots sewn up which leaves one slot for one of Arvidsson, Jarnkrok, Colin Wilson, or Craig Smith.  Vingan suggests that even if they aren’t able to protect Arvidsson, they’d look to make a trade with Las Vegas, sending them a draft pick or some form of consideration to ensure that they don’t select him in June’s draft.

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