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Tavares To Toronto Highly Unlikely

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Although it seems to occur every time a high-profile free-agent could hit the market, Toronto media have once again conjured a dream of landing a superstar. John Tavares is experiencing major difficulty in coming to terms with the New York Islanders, primarily because of the uncertainty of their arena situation. The team needs to prove that they are both competitive and can secure a home for the foreseeable future. Enter Toronto, who believes that the contract negotiation difficulty automatically propels them into a top-3 competitor for Tavares’ services. If this story may sound familiar, that’s because it occurred just last off-season when Steven Stamkos was stalling his new deal with Tampa Bay.

Toronto inarguably is in a far superior negotiating position than they were in 2016. They’ve made the playoffs and took the Washington Capitals to their limits, and flaunt a young core who established itself as dominant quite before most believed possible. Given another season of success, the Leafs could be serious contenders for any UFA on the market. That said, a Tavares signing would be absurdly difficult and ultimately impractical for a multitude of reasons. The Leafs’ fanbase is already (rightfully) fretting over the difficulty of keeping Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews, and William Nylander together while staying under the cap ceiling. Each player will command hefty money on long-term deals, and the best case scenario (cap-wise) is that one of the three might have a “down” statistical year.

Even ignoring those future contracts, Toronto already made matters more complicated by signing Patrick Marleau to a 3-year contract worth $6.25 MM AAV. Assuming that the team keeps one or two of James van Riemsdyk, Leo Komarov, and Tyler Bozak (all UFAs in 2018), they will have precious room to devote to Tavares beyond 2018-19. After that point, Matthews and Marner will both be on new deals with heavy cap hits. Craig Button of TSN suggests that the Leafs could offer Tavares a one-year deal, but there is little to no security in such an arrangement. If the Islanders are unable to move Tavares or simply fall short of securing a new contract, Tavares will be likely seek a long-term arrangement. His primary stated concern at present is security, and a one-year contract elsewhere certainly doesn’t achieve said goal.

By signing Marleau, the writing for Toronto fans should have been clear and visible. Still, the Tavares hope persists. It’s not impossible that Tavares could sign a long-term contract in Toronto, but it would take a major roster overhaul to achieve. One of Marner or Nylander would necessarily need to depart, and the amount of money spent on the offense would only increase further. It seems likely that GM Lou Lamoriello will simply build upon the core that has been so successful without gutting the progress made. It would be unrealistic to expect Lamoriello to not at least inquire about Tavares if he indeed hits unrestricted free agency, but it would require a major organizational commitment without any real certainty in the matter. Tavares will receive a long-term contract, whether it is from New York or another franchise, but as of now the Leafs are not in a position to extend such an offer.

Breaking Down John Tavares Standoff With Isles

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As reported by PHR’s Gavin Lee, New York Islanders’ star John Tavares was quiet when asked about his extension. The 26-year-old was eligible to sign an extension with the Islanders starting on July 1, but after five weeks still hasn’t done it. Speculation suggests that he is keeping a keen eye on two critical elements, including the team’s success as well as whether the team will find a home. He has said he would like to stay in New York and continue to play for the Islanders, but is keeping his thoughts internally.

However, the New York Posts’ Larry Brooks writes that history suggests that what a player says during negotiations doesn’t mean anything. He cites former New York Rangers’ captain Ryan Callahan in 2014 as having said the same thing, only to be traded to the Tampa Bay Lightning after negotiations broke down over a no-trade clause the Rangers didn’t want to include. The scribe writes, however, that these negotiations have little to do with a no-trade clause or even money. The Islanders are willing to offer it all.

Brooks believes that the Islanders’ struggles, despite picking up Jordan Eberle this offseason, might count against the New York team. Tavares has played eight seasons in the NHL and has only made three trips to the playoffs, and only ies. Maybe, he wants more success. On top of that, the team still is having trouble finding a new home for the franchise. Is Belmont Park the answer? Possibly, but it’s not perfect and nothing is cemented in stone. Maybe he wants to wait until that is resolved. Many people compare Tavares to the Steven Stamkos standoff last year, but Tampa Bay had been to the Stanley Cup Finals in 2015 and to a Game 7 in the conference finals in 2016. They were a successful franchise.

While the eight-year contract they can offer to Tavares (as opposed to seven years for any other team) is critical to the Islanders, Brooks questions that advantage as well. Citing the belief that the Tampa Bay Lightning will make a play for the forward, he writes that Florida’s lack of a state tax would save Tavares quite a bit of cash. He writes that if the Islanders offer him an eight year, $80MM contract ($10MM per year), that would leave him with $41.81MM after taxes, according to Brooks. If Tampa Bay offers him a seven-year, $59.5MM deal ($8.5MM per year), Tavares would get to keep $36.28MM after taxes, which is only $5MM less overall. So that eighth year isn’t as big of a factor when dealing with teams that have no state income tax.

There are a lot of maybes, but there is a good chance the Islanders will be forced to trade Tavares if they want to keep their franchise afloat.

 

Could Tampa Bay Package Johnson, Palat For Tavares?

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Don’t be surprised if the Tampa Bay Lightning attempt to flip their recently signed restricted free agents within the next year. At least that’s what the New York Post’s Larry Brooks believes will happen. He writes the long-term signings of Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat are likely going to be part of a package the Lightning will eventually make for New York Islanders’ John Tavares at some point next season if the Islanders can’t sign him.

While the Islanders have said they are not trading the veteran, there is growing concern that the 26-year-old is not happy with the franchise and might be ready to move on. The Islanders’ center is coming off a 28-goal season last year with 38 assists for 66 points. While the Islanders should get credit for doing everything they can to keep one of their stars after losing former star Kyle Okposo to Buffalo for nothing, Brooks believes they will be sellers near the trade deadline to avoid another major loss. He compares the situation to Tampa Bay’s worries about losing Steven Stamkos a year ago. In that situation, the Lightning were able to lock up their star to an eight-year deal, but this isn’t the same. The Lightning were a successful franchise and were loaded with talent. That’s not really the case with the Islanders. With stadium issues and a team that has struggled off and on, it wouldn’t be surprising if Tavares was looking at better options.

The undrafted Johnson has shown quite a bit of promise over the years although his numbers have dropped in the last couple of years. The 26-year-old center put up a 29-goal season two years ago, but finished this year with 19 goals and 26 assists in 66 games. Johnson’s seven-year, $35MM deal ($5MM AAV) could keep him in New York for a long time. Palat has quite a bit of similarities to Johnson as he is 26 as well and was not expected to be a top prospect as he was just a seventh-round pick in 2011. The left wing also started strong and has taken a step back from there, putting up 23 goals in his first full season with the Lightning. He still put up solid numbers last year, scoring 17 goals and 35 assists for 52 points. His five-year, $26.5MM deal is worth $5.3MM annually.

Although Tampa Bay might even have to offer more to get a player like Tavares, the deal would also work because both Johnson and Palat have no trade clauses that will kick in next July, so if the plan may be to package them for a star player, this next year will be their best opportunity to make a deal like that happen. On top of that, moving the two of them for Tavares could be a wash, salary-wise as the Islanders star could be asking for a contract in the $10MM range next year.

Tampa Bay Lightning Sign Chris Kunitz

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Four-time Stanley Cup champion Chris Kunitz is off to Tampa Bay, where he has signed a one-year $2MM deal with the Lightning. The deal also includes $1MM in performance bonuses according to Pierre LeBrun of TSN, based on ice time, games played and the team making the playoffs.

Kunitz is coming off a strong playoff performance for Pittsburgh. Most notably, he scored the double-overtime winner in Game 7 against Ottawa which propelled the team into the Finals. He’s always been a solid possession player – never posting a Corsit For below 51% since the stat was tracked in 2007-08. His productivity on the wings of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin placed him in the upper echelon of wingers in the league. Last season, the 37-year-old saw his first major decline in goal production during the regular season. He dropped to 9 tallies from the previous season’s 17, and noticeably looked a step slower. He became an expendable piece who moved up and down the lineup with the emergence of forwards Conor Sheary and Jake Guentzel.

Still able to provide leadership and a physical element, Kunitz will hope to prove that he belongs on a Tampa Bay team that is thin on the left wing. Tampa will look to lean upon his intangibles to catapult them back into playoff contention after a rough 2016-17 season. If he can regain some of his previous production, the deal will look all the better. His previously noted flexibility will come in handy in the case of injuries, and he has shown his ability to play effectively along top talent. It’s difficult to imagine him looking out of place slotting alongside Steven Stamkos or Tyler Johnson in a pinch. The biggest risk of course is with regards to his age, and whether he will continue to be as unproductive offensively as he was in the latter half of the season in Pittsburgh.

Snapshots: Bieksa, Stamkos, Pyatt

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Anaheim defenseman Kevin Bieksa is not expected to take the ice in Game 2 against Edmonton. Bieksa had not been logging major minutes lately, averaging just over 16 minutes on the backend, good for 6th best on his squad. However, his nasty, physical edge was felt everytime he took the ice. The defenseman had an awkward looking collision early in Wednesday’s game with teammate Shea Theodore. He left the game, briefly returned, and exited again for good. Further information is unknown at this time.

Bieksa is perhaps best remembered for being a pivotal part of the defense that led the Vancouver Canucks to Game 7 of a Stanley Cup Final in 2010-11. He has played 82 career NHL playoff games, with a solid 30 points over that span. He had already potted 4 assists for the Ducks through 5 games. Replacing such a force will be difficult for Anaheim, especially since they struggled to deter the high-flying Edmonton forwards from creating offense and crashing the net. Sami Vatanen would be a safe bet to re-enter the lineup in his place, in an attempt to recoup some of that experience.

  • Steven Stamkos should be ready to go at the beginning of next season for the Tampa Bay Lightning.  He had undergone intensive surgery on his knee, after tearing his meniscus. Although his return was expected, the reassuring news should bring a sigh of relief for Bolts’ fans. Stamkos’ absence was sorely felt this season as his squad was kept afloat largely due to the individual efforts of Nikita Kucherov and Victor Hedman. Scoring depth was harder to come by and the team was noticeably less effective at line-matching. Stamkos is the sort of offensive superstar that is nearly impossible to replace, even with a roster that had been as well constructed as GM Steve Yzerman’s. Stamkos has won two Maurice “Rocket” Richard trophies for top goal scorer in a season, including an absurd 60  goals in 2011-12. He had posted 9 goals and 20 points through 17 games this season before succumbing to injury.
  • Tom Pyatt did not play in Game 1 between the Senators and Rangers. The Ottawa forward was hopeful to be slotted in the lineup tonight, but was a late scratch. Pyatt had also missed the deciding Game 6 against Boston in the first round. The undersized fourth-liner had been held pointless through 4 games, and posted a -2. Although his veteran status and feistiness would have been welcome attributes in what is sure to be a tough series, his contributions this season were minimal. His advanced stats show that he is a net negative in terms of scoring opportunities and shots (CF% of 43.6), and his versatility isn’t even much of a bonus, as he only took 49 draws this season, losing the bulk of them.

Morning Notes: Panarin, Dowling, Bindulis

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Last year Artemi Panarin exploded onto the scene in the NHL, scoring 30 goals and 77 points in 80 games, winning the Calder trophy along the way. With that performance, he achieved all his entry-level bonuses (explained here, using Mitch Marner as an example), meaning the Blackhawks carried a cap penalty over this season. As Chris Hine of the Chicago Tribune points out, the “Breadman” is close to achieving those bonuses once again.

Panarin will easily secure all of his Schedule A bonuses, and is well positioned to activate his Schedule B bonus as well, worth $1.725MM if he should finish in the top-10 in scoring. With 72 points, Panarin sits tied for tenth in the league with Evgeni Malkin and three games left to play. With games against the Colorado Avalanche, Anaheim Ducks and Los Angeles Kings left, the sophomore could easily jump a few spots into the top and cause Chicago to suffer another $2MM+ penalty next season.

  • Steven Stamkos won’t play again tonight, in what is the definition of a must-win for Tampa Bay. A regulation loss for the Lightning at the hands of the Bruins, combined with a Maple Leafs win would clinch a playoff position for both Toronto and Boston, and leave only Ottawa as an outside target for Tampa Bay. It’s looking more and more like the captain won’t return this season in time to help his club get back into the playoffs.
  • The Dallas Stars have brought Justin Dowling back up, after just a night in the AHL. The move must have been just a paper transaction, as the Texas Stars didn’t play last night. They’ll take on the Bakersfield Condors tomorrow night, likely without Dowling in the lineup.
  • The Hershey Bears have released Kristofers Bindulis from his amateur tryout, without the NCAA forward actually playing a game for the team. Bindulis was signed to a contract by the Washington Capitals earlier this spring, but will now head to the World Championships for Latvia before starting the first year of his ELC next year.
  • The Bears have also signed Beck Malenstyn to an ATO for the remainder of the year. Selected in the fifth round of the 2016 draft, Malenstyn had been playing for the Calgary Hitmen this season. Having just turned 19, he’ll likely head back to the OHL next season and try again to earn an entry-level deal.

Morning Snapshots: Stamkos, McDonagh, Sherwood, Panarin, Quenneville

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News and notes from around the NHL this morning:

  • Despite reports that Steven Stamkos may return to the Tampa Bay Lightning, Tampa Bay Times writer Joe Smith reports that Stamkos will not play tonight against the Dallas Stars. Stamkos took part in the morning skate but confirmed that he will not lace up the skates this weekend. The Lightning have four games left on the schedule, including one each against the Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs—two teams the Lightning are chasing for the East’s final wildcard spot. If Stamkos returns from his knee injury, expect him to play in those high-stakes games.
  • The New York Rangers will most likely be without captain Ryan McDonagh for a second straight game. NHL.com’s Dan Rosen reports that McDonagh did not skate with the team this morning ahead of its game against the Philadelphia Flyers. The Rangers captain suffered an undisclosed injury this week and missed Friday’s game. Coach Alain Vigneault did not expand on McDonagh’s injury, but assured reporters that it is day-to-day rather than something serious. Leaving McDonagh out may be nothing more than precautionary as the Rangers have all but locked up the first wild card slot in the East.
  • The Columbus Blue Jackets have assigned forward Kole Sherwood to the AHL Cleveland Monsters this morning. The Blue Jackets signed the undrafted free agent in July 2015, and the Ohio native lit up the OHL with the Flint Firebirds this season. Sherwood scored 33G and 52A in 60 games, and an additional 4G and 1A in 5 playoff games. The Blue Jackets prospect may make his professional debut today against the Iowa Wild.
  • According to TheAthletic’s Scott Powers, Chicago Blackhawks forward Artemi Panarin would hit his $1.75MM Schedule B bonus as of today. Panarin can trigger that bonus by finishing in the top-ten forward in scoring this season. If the season ended today, Panarin would sit 11th overall, but because Brent Burns is a defenseman, Panarin remains the tenth highest-scoring forward this season. Panarin may be looking over his shoulder, however, as both Winnipeg Jets’ Blake Wheeler and Dallas Stars’ Tyler Seguin are only one point behind.
  • The New Jersey Devils have reassigned forward John Quenneville to the AHL Albany Devils. The Devils rookie has 1G and 3A in 12 NHL games, but 12G and 29A in 53 AHL games this season. With the New Jersey Devils well outside the NHL playoff picture, the organization now focuses on Albany, where the Devils hold a playoff spot by only two points.

Injury Notes: Stamkos, Penguins, Andersen

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Steven Stamkos was present at practice in full today, taking line rushes and participating in powerplay drills. He’s now “day-to-day” according to Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times, and will continue to be evaluated daily. He won’t play tomorrow against Detroit, but could return soon for the chance to help Tampa Bay into the playoffs.

Stamkos has been out since November and has always put a return this season as a goal in his rehab. Despite trading away two centers at the deadline and three others dealing with various injuries, the team now finds themselves just three points out of a playoff spot with a game in hand over the Boston Bruins. Those two teams will meet on Tuesday in what could be the deciding game for both their playoff lives.

  • The Pittsburgh Penguins are finally getting healthier, with Conor Sheary and Chad Ruhwedel both game-time decisions for tonight according to Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. While Jake Guentzel and Ron Hainsey won’t be available, both took the ice wearing normal jerseys today for the Penguins option skate. The Penguins have lost three games in a row and are falling out of President’s Trophy contention, and with it an “easier’ matchup in the first round. As things stand currently, they’d take on the Columbus Blue Jackets in the first round.
  • After missing just one game, Frederik Andersen may be back in the Toronto Maple Leafs net sooner than later. Kristen Shilton of TSN reports that the goaltender said he feels ready to go for the team tomorrow, but he and the medical staff will talk more after landing in Nashville for their game tomorrow night. Andersen was taken out with a possible concussion from Saturday’s game in Buffalo, but returned to the ice the next day without any symptoms.

John Tavares Future In New York

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Will John Tavares be wearing a New York Islanders jersey next season? What about the season after that?

The Islanders captain will be an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2018. Like Steven Stamkos before him, there’s a brewing media storm about the Ontario boy coming home to play with the Maple Leafs. But with Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander all coming up for new contracts in the next three years, the Maple Leafs wouldn’t be able to afford Tavares without major re-structuring. But that doesn’t mean Tavares will copy Stamkos and sign a long-term extension.

While the Islanders are in the midst of a playoff battle (two points behind final wildcard spot with a game in hand), it hasn’t been a great year for the franchise. After a few debatable free agency moves, arena problems, and a coaching change, the Islanders have gone from a 100-point season and visit to the second round to fighting to make the playoffs at all. Tavares has publicly stated that he’s interested in signing an extension, but many hockey insiders have wondered about his willingness to sign long-term based on the questions surrounding the Islanders. Last week, TSN’s Darren Dreger said he “wouldn’t be shocked” if the Islanders explored trading Tavares this summer, and Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman re-iterated those rumors on Hockey Night In Canada last night.

It’s likely that Tavares is worth somewhere between $8.5MM and $10MM on a long-term contract. Our Gavin Lee suggested Stamkos and Anze Kopitar as good comparables for Tavares. The Islanders will have the space two years from now to offer that money, with Jaroslav Halak, Mikhail Grabovski, and Nikolai Kulemin all coming off the books that summer.

Friedman pointed out that the Islanders have offered Tavares’ agent, Pat Brisson, a job running their hockey operations at least once. The idea was to make Tavares more comfortable signing long-term. If the team struggles to get Tavares locked up and decides to trade him this summer, the right trade could set the franchise up for the next decade.

If Tavares signs long-term, then the club will have to make moves to surround him with the talent to become a Stanley Cup contender; if he wants to move on, then it will be a full-on rebuild for the Islanders.

Injury Notes: Ferland, Stone, Leivo, Rust

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Calgary Flames winger Micheal Ferland has rejoined his teammates in Nashville today after being quarantined for almost a week. The 24-year old had showed signs of the mumps outbreak that had swept through the NHL briefly, but is now symptom free. He’ll be back in on the top line with Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan tonight, according to Kristen Odland of Postmedia.

Here are some other injury notes from around the league:

  • Josh Leivo will take the spot of the injured Eric Fehr in tonight’s Maple Leafs lineup according to Chris Johnston of Sportsnet. With Nikita Soshnikov still on the mend following a big hit from Zdeno Chara, Leivo will look to get back to his scoring ways tonight. The young winger had nine points in a ten game stretch last month when Mitch Marner was dealing with an injury, and has considerable offensive upside. He’ll slot in on the fourth line tonight beside Brian Boyle and Matt Martin.
  • Despite skating with the team in a regular jersey this morning, Cedric Paquette will not return to the lineup for Tampa Bay according to Caley Chelios of FOX Sports. The Lightning center will remain out alongside Steven Stamkos and Tyler Johnson for the time being.
  • On Stamkos, he was seen skating again before practice, but admitted to Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times that “time is running out” for him to return this season. Stamkos has been skating for weeks as he tries to come back from a meniscus tear in his right knee. The Lightning are currently sitting five points back with ten games to play.
  • Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia reports that Ottawa Senators forward Mark Stone was back skating this morning, though he won’t play tonight. Stone was out early and stayed late at practice as he works hard to get back into the Senators lineup. The team can smell first place in the Atlantic Division, and getting Stone—arguably their best forward—back before the end of the season could help them wrestle the crown away from the Montreal Canadiens. With a matchup against the fourth Metropolitan team looming in the first round, whether they should really want it is a different story.
  • Penguins’ forward Bryan Rust is almost back in the lineup reports Bill West of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review after taking part in just about everything at today’s Pittsburgh practice. Though he won’t play tonight, the 24-year old forward will likely be back in a game before the end of the week; the Penguins take on Ottawa tonight, New York (Islanders) tomorrow and Philadelphia on Sunday.
  • Three goaltenders were at practice today for the Anaheim Ducks, including John Gibson as he continues to rehab his latest injury. Head coach Randy Carlyle said today that Gibson will definitely play before the end of the regular season, though that still leaves the question of whether he’ll be tested enough to start game one of the playoffs. We’ll see how many games the young netminder gets in before Anaheim has to take on a team like the Edmonton Oilers or Calgary Flames in the first round.

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