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PHR Panel: Prospect Pontificating

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We’re now several weeks into an NHL postponement and there is still no clear timeline on when professional hockey will return. While fans of the sport have received small tidbits of news over that time, including college signings and contract extensions, the thirst for discussion has rarely been quenched.

With that in mind, we’re happy to continue our new feature: The PHR Panel. Three times a week, our writing staff will give our individual takes on a question many hockey fans have been wondering about. If you’d ever like to submit a subject for us to discuss, be sure to put it in the comments. This series will run each Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

To catch up on the previous edition, click here.

Today, we’ll each give our thoughts on a prospect that hasn’t yet made his NHL debut.

Q: Which already-drafted prospect outside of the NHL excites you the most?

Brian La Rose:

The question of when Wild winger Kirill Kaprizov will sign with Minnesota has been ongoing for a while. The first season PHR covered was the 2016-17 campaign where his contract in the KHL was expiring and there were questions as to whether or not he’d come to North America. Fast forward to today. His contract in the KHL is expiring and there is hope that he’ll finally cross the pond. I’m excited to see if he lives up to the hype.

There is plenty of reason for optimism. In recent years, he has progressed from being a good KHL winger to a legitimate star and actually led the KHL in goals (33) and points per game (1.09) this season. A few years ago, the thought was that he could come in and play right away. Now, the hope is that he can come in and play on the Wild’s top line right away.

Over the last few years, Minnesota has been a decent team but is missing that key piece or two to prop them up from being a bubble team. Kaprizov has the ability to help them do just that. Assuming he plays next season (even this year is a possibility if regular season games resume), he could be the player to help spark their turnaround. It seems we’ll soon find out if he winds up being well worth the wait.

Holger Stolzenberg: 

I find myself quite intrigued by the prospects in this upcoming draft, but that doesn’t answer today’s question. Considering that I’m German, I’ve always been fascinated by German prospects and with the continuing improvement in German-born players that last few years (very interested to see how Tim Stuetzle develops), I’m always watching prospects ready to come to the U.S closely.

The guy I’ve been most interested in the last couple of years is Carolina Hurricanes prospect Dominik Bokk. He was originally drafted 25th overall in 2018 by the Blues and was a key part of the trade which brought Justin Faulk to St. Louis. Bokk is considered to be quite the talent, joining the SHL at age 18, but has struggled to play among men, scoring nine goals in two seasons with Vaxjo. He then went over to top-ranked Rogle where he struggled even more, but after a dominating performance for Germany at the World Juniors this last year took off, scoring 10 goals since returning, while only averaging 12-13 minutes per game.

He’s expected to arrive and spend a season in the AHL where the Hurricanes already moved out a bunch of prospects out of their AHL system, including Julien Gauthier, Janne Kuokkanen and Eetu Luostarinen to give some playing time for incoming players, including Bokk. I wouldn’t be surprised if he dominates in his first AHL year and we’ll see how he develops, but I just get excited about Bokk as a prospect.

Zach Leach:

There are a number of talented future stars among the selections from the past couple of years—and even more in the upcoming draft class—but in my opinion “excitement” for a prospect peaks the closer he is to making an NHL impact.

For that reason, to me Kaprizov has to be the most exciting prospect outside of the NHL. The 2015 Minnesota Wild pick has been teasing North American fans for years with stunning numbers in the KHL for such a young player. The 22-year-old could be the second coming of Artemi Panarin and I believe he finally makes the jump this summer and takes on a top-six role for the Wild right away next year. Kaprizov is simply a dynamic offensive talent and gifted scorer who I would be surprised to see struggle with translating his penchant for points to the NHL. He would be my 2020-21 Calder Trophy favorite the minute he signs in Minny.

As for more recent picks, I continue to be impressed by Buffalo Sabres prospect Dylan Cozens. A player that I was high on when he was drafted last year, I feel Cozens was an outstanding value at No. 7 overall. For the sake of development, he was better off back in the WHL this season, where he again proved to be one of the league’s best players, rather than with a struggling Sabres squad. However, I expect the well-rounded power forward to break camp in Buffalo next season and make an impact for a team desperate for more talent, compete, and IQ in their forward corps.

Gavin Lee:

There’s no doubt that Kaprizov will get the juices flowing again when he finally does come over, but the will-he-won’t-he of the last few years has me drained of any excitement.

A really good case could be made for Alex Newhook, who has just oozed top-line NHL potential while dominating his NCAA competition. The Colorado Avalanche draft pick—16th overall in 2019—scored 19 goals and 42 points in 34 games for Boston College and was just named the Tim Taylor Award winner as NCAA Rookie of the Year. Newhook was somehow left off the Canadian roster at the World Juniors this year (they won gold, so I guess it was the right choice?) but you can bet he’ll be at the next one, before making his mark at the NHL level down the road.

Still, as much as this may cause some chuckles in the back, the prospect that excites me the most is still Joe Veleno. The QMJHL star and Detroit Red Wings prospect jumped to the AHL last season and recorded just 23 points in 54 games, but that performance comes with a few caveats. First, and most importantly, Veleno played a good chunk of the season as a teenager—something that isn’t normally allowed for a player drafted out of the CHL. His case was different because of the exceptional status he was granted to enter the CHL a year early; five years of junior meant he was eligible to jump to professional hockey.

The other was the overall scoring ineptitude of the Grand Rapids Griffins. Amazingly, Veleno’s 11 goals actually tied him for third on the team, behind only AHL veterans Chris Terry and Matt Puempel. Five of those goals actually came in his final 16 games of the season, hopefully pointing to a higher level of production next year.

It’s hard to explain exactly why Veleno excites me when I watch him play, but he does. At the World Juniors I thought he was arguably the most well-rounded forward in the tournament, and perhaps that’s why I have such high hopes. I think he can be a star offensively in the NHL if he’s put in that role, but I also think he could be one of the league’s best shutdown forwards. What better organization to be in than one helmed by Steve Yzerman.

Stretch Run Storylines: Detroit Red Wings

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the weeks ahead, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  We wrap up our look at the Atlantic Division with Detroit.

After a tough 2018-19 campaign, expectations were low for the Red Wings heading into this season.  New GM Steve Yzerman was committed to keeping the current rebuilding strategy intact and not surprisingly as a result, the team has struggled mightily as they sit dead last in the NHL by a whopping 23 points.  That leaves some big questions ahead, some of which could help be answered if regular season play is able to resume.

Blashill’s Future

With this season being a transition year at best, it was understandable that head coach Jeff Blashill was kept around despite a tough 2018-19.  The record is a whole lot worse this season but Yzerman has said he has liked some of what he has seen with regards to player development and compete level.  The latter stands out considering they have been out of playoff contention for the majority of the season.

If the NHL is able to get in the rest of their games, that 11-game stretch would serve as an opportunity for Blashill to make a late push to stick around for another season which would be the final one of his contract.  There would inevitably need to be a mini training camp and how he’s able to motivate a team that would be getting put through their paces in the late spring or early summer to play 11 meaningless games may actually have an impact on showing what type of hold he still has on the room.

Bernier’s Opportunity

With Jimmy Howard struggling mightily this year (a 2-23-2 record with a 4.20 GAA and a .882 SV%), Jonathan Bernier has had the opportunity to show that he can be the starter.  The end result has been mediocre numbers (15-22-3, 2.95 GAA, .907 SV%) but given the state of the team in general, mediocre isn’t that bad.

Bernier isn’t playing for a contract as he has one year left on a deal that carries a $3MM price tag.  However, with several notable free agent goalies hitting the market this offseason (including Corey Crawford, Braden Holtby, and Jacob Markstrom as starters and platoon options like Anton Khudobin and Jaroslav Halak), he will certainly be looking to prove that he can be counted in his current role.  The stretch run would afford him one more chance to stake his claim to the number one job for next season.

Youth Movement

With any remaining games having no bearings on the standings (they’ve clinched 31st overall even if the full schedule has been played), Detroit should be using any remaining games as an opportunity to give some of their prospects some extra playing time.  Filip Zadina was close to returning before the shutdown and should be in line for a prime role.  Longer looks at players like Gustav Lindstrom, Taro Hirose and Dmytro Timashov would also be beneficial to see if they can be counted on in a regular role for 2020-21.  Michael Rasmussen has yet to play with Detroit this season after playing 62 games for them a year ago while Evgeny Svechnikov, a first-round pick in 2015, has played just four times.  NHL action for them would certainly be ideal.

But beyond them, there are other prospects that would certainly benefit from some late action.  The initial plan before the postponement of games was that Moritz Seider would get an opportunity to play.  He’d be capped at nine games but even that many would be a good introduction before trying to compete for a spot in training camp a few months later.  Joe Veleno wasn’t in the plans to bring up as the Red Wings wanted to keep him in the minors where he was starting to play better.  But with this stoppage, any momentum from that has passed so it may be time for him to get a chance as well.

The longer this stoppage goes on, the likelihood of AHL games resuming gets lower.  There are no post-deadline roster restrictions as long as teams stay under the salary cap and Detroit is in good shape in that regard; they have room to bring up some more players while remaining in compliance.  Forget just the mini conditioning camp to get back into shape, any remaining games are basically opportunities for an extended training camp for 2020-21.  Accordingly, they need to feature a lot of Detroit’s up and coming talent.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PHR Panel: Braden Holtby’s Future

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We’re now several weeks into an NHL postponement and there is still no clear timeline on when professional hockey will return. While fans of the sport have received small tidbits of news over that time, including college signings and contract extensions, the thirst for discussion has rarely been quenched.

With that in mind, we’re happy to continue our new feature: The PHR Panel. Three times a week, our writing staff will give our individual takes on a question many hockey fans have been wondering about. If you’d ever like to submit a subject for us to discuss, be sure to put it in the comments. This series will run each Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

To catch up on the previous edition, click here.

Today, we’ll each give our thoughts on Braden Holtby’s playing future.

Q: Where will Braden Holtby be playing in 2020-21?

Brian La Rose: 

It seems safe to rule out Washington at this point. With $71MM committed for next season, they don’t have a lot of wiggle room to add another high-priced player and Ilya Samsonov will need a new, potentially pricey deal in 2021. Holtby has been a big part of the Capitals for a long time but they’re close to parting ways.

It’s not a great year to be a starting goalie that’s hitting the open market. There aren’t many openings for clear cut number ones and with the year Sergei Bobrovsky had, teams will be hesitant to sign an expensive deal. Some teams that have a need probably don’t have the money (Chicago comes to mind) which limits things even further.

This has to be great news for Detroit. They have a glaring weakness between the pipes to try to fill and their prospect depth is limited. They’re in solid shape when it comes to the salary cap and with Steve Yzerman at the helm as GM, there is optimism that their days of being in the basement are quickly coming to an end.

That makes them a great fit for Holtby. Even though he’s had a down year by his standards, his track record is good enough that he’d still be the clear cut starter for the Red Wings and could still command a sizable contract. There may be another losing season in the short term but over the long haul, this may be the best situation for both sides.

Holger Stolzenberg: 

I’ve always been a fan of Washington goaltender Braden Holtby, but to be honest, I’ve not been crazy about his play the last couple of years. Yes, he bounced back in the 2017-18 playoffs after losing his job to Philipp Grubauer, but he hasn’t been the same since. He finished the 2018-19 season with a 2.82 GAA and a .911 save percentage and those numbers actually plummeted this year with a 3.11 GAA and .897 save percentage, which makes you wonder how many teams will be willing to pay up for Holtby’s services.

In reality, the Capitals might be really lucky that Ilya Samsonov had such an impressive rookie year. Had he struggled this year, they would be in a tough situation. Any team that is interested in Holtby has to be quite wary of how the 30-year old (31 at the start of next season) has played recently and I would not give him term of any significant length.

However, I could see several teams interested in signing him in hopes that he might bounce back and personally, I wouldn’t be shocked if a team like the Buffalo Sabres might opt to buy out Carter Hutton and bring in Holtby to share the net with Linus Ullmark over the next few years. The defense is getting stronger and they have some talent not far away from coming in to help both netminders. The key, once again, is not to offer too long of a deal, especially since the Sabres have been burned by free agents over the years.

Zach Leach: 

When it comes to Braden Holtby, the only thing that is certain is that he will be playing in a starter’s role to begin next season. Holtby was one of the best players in the NHL from 2014-17, so while his numbers have shown a marked drop-off in recent years, he still has the experience and brand power to land a major contract that guarantees him a top role in net. That’s not to say that the team investing in the Vezina Trophy winner is making a wise decision, but someone will do it.

Who exactly that will be is hard to tell. A Saskatchewan native who played junior for his hometown Saskatoon Blades, Holtby has no real ties to any other NHL market besides Washington. Beyond a possible reunion with first NHL coach Bruce Boudreau, should he land with a team who had needs in net, Holtby’s destination will likely not be based on any past relationships either, but rather simply the best offer.

While things are sure to change this off-season with the possibilities of a stagnant salary cap and compliance buyouts, right now there are few teams in need of a bona fide starter. Staying with the Caps or moving to the Blackhawks or Sharks would be an ideal fit, but would be very difficult in terms of cap construction. On the other end of the spectrum, the Red Wings, Senators, Sabres, and Devils could use help in net but are likely hesitant to make a major investment when they are not close to contending.

For my money, I would say that Chicago is most likely to figure out how to make Holtby fit. They are the only team in the league without an NHL option signed for next season and are desperate to solve that situation and get back to competing for Stanley Cups. A Brent Seabrook compliance buyout would go a long way to making this dream a reality. If San Jose can move Martin Jones or Buffalo decides to go all-in this summer, I would say that those two teams have the flexibility to be players for Holtby as well. I think the Capitals are prepared to move forward with Ilya Samsonov and a top veteran backup.

Gavin Lee:

When you think of signing big-name free agents, which is the very last team you consider? Maybe the Carolina Hurricanes, who haven’t been a big UFA player on July 1 since, well they’ve never really been one. Perhaps that all changes this year, when Holtby will be available for the highest bidder.

Yes, it would be quite a shock for Carolina to make a commitment of that level to a free agent. Yes, the Hurricanes do already have two goaltenders each making more than $3MM next season. And yes, even with the expiring Joel Edmundson and Trevor van Riemsdyk contracts the team still has an expensive defense corps.

But if there has been any theme to the team’s moves since Tom Dundon took over as owner, it’s that they’re willing to take a swing at that inside fastball and try to put it in the seats. That’s exactly what Holtby would be for a team that reached the Eastern Conference Finals just a year ago. The Hurricanes have shown they can be an elite possession team, own one of the finest defensive groups in the NHL, and after some shrewd trades the last few years now have a young top-nine that could rival almost any in the league.

There would need to be other moves that go along with it. Obviously James Reimer and Petr Mrazek couldn’t both be on the roster along with Holtby, but given that the team still has some time before Andrei Svechnikov and Martin Necas get really expensive, perhaps one of them could. A tandem of Holtby-Mrazek for instance still might not be that much more expensive than the ones in Florida and Montreal, where Sergei Bobrovsky and Carey Price already make at least $10MM per season. After his down year and with the squeezed salary cap Holtby won’t command that much, but he could still give the Hurricanes that kind of Vezina-caliber, championship-level goaltending they’ve lacked for so long.

What better motivation could there be than to stay in the Metropolitan Division?

PHR Panel: Expansion Draft Considerations

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We’re now several weeks into an NHL postponement and there is still no clear timeline on when professional hockey will return. While fans of the sport have received small tidbits of news over that time, including college signings and contract extensions, the thirst for discussion has rarely been quenched.

With that in mind, we’re happy to continue our new feature: The PHR Panel. Three times a week, our writing staff will give our individual takes on a question many hockey fans have been wondering about. If you’d ever like to submit a subject for us to discuss, be sure to put it in the comments. This series will run each Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

To catch up on the previous edition, click here.

Today, we’ll each give our thoughts on the upcoming 2021 expansion draft.

Q: Which team should be most afraid of the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft?

Brian La Rose: 

This is a tough one to answer a year out as a lot will change between now and then. Who is added over the offseason in trades and free agency can certainly affect things. So too can teams deciding to sign players to early extensions or holding off in order to leave them exposed to protect someone else.

Personally, I’m of the opinion that teams with strong defensive depth are the ones that should be the most worried. With a 7-3-1 protection system, anyone with a fourth defender worthy of keeping either risk losing them or their fifth-best forward if they switch to the alternative eight skater protection list.

Using that mindset, Carolina comes up as a team that should be concerned about Seattle’s draft.

Their surefire protectees at this point on the back end are Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, and Brady Skjei. But does Haydn Fleury take another step forward next year and become tougher to leave exposed? Are they able to get Dougie Hamilton signed to an extension? If so, he’s another must-protect player. What about Jake Bean, a well-regarded prospect that will be eligible to be picked. It’s reasonable to think that they may want to protect four defensemen which means only four forwards could be protected. But with a strong and relatively forward corps as well, they’re setting up to lose either a strong defenseman or a top-six forward. Having depth is great but a year from now, they’re going to lose an impact player.

Holger Stolzenberg: 

When looking at the upcoming expansion draft, there are a number of teams that may have to give up some very good players to the incoming Seattle franchise. While I can easily point to teams like Toronto and Tampa Bay as franchises that have a lot of talent, the team that seems to currently have the most talent at risk is the St. Louis Blues. Granted, there are still quite a few questions that need to be asked, including what will the team do with Alex Pietrangelo? If they re-sign him, then the team is overloaded with defensemen and might have to consider the 8 players and a goalie scenario as opposed to 7-3-1.

However, I sense that even if the team does find a way to bring Pietrangelo back—which I think is likely—then the team will have to ship out a blueliner (maybe Justin Faulk) to give the team some salary cap relief and keep a 7-3-1 scenario, considering all the talent. The Blues have quite a bit of offensive firepower with a lot of young talent. The team will obviously keep Ryan O’Reilly and Vladimir Tarasenko, Jaden Schwartz if he is extended, likely Brayden Schenn–maybe David Perron, maybe not. That’s the veterans. What about Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou, Sammy Blais? They are key young pieces with a ton of talent. That still leaves quite a few players exposed, including Oskar Sundqvist, Ivan Barbashev, Zach Sanford…

So, no matter what moves they make, the Blues should lose a quality player. Don’t forget in goal…before Jordan Binnington came along, Ville Husso was considered their goalie of the future. Could he be the goalie of the future in Seattle now?

Zach Leach:

The expansion draft format, which will be the same for Seattle as it was for Vegas, is designed to hurt every team. The protection schemes combined with the exposure requirements ensure that each club must expose at least one or two players of value. However, the rules are most unfavorable not to the teams with the most high-end talent, but to the teams with the most depth, specifically those with considerable youth and homegrown talent signed long-term.

While rosters are sure to change before the Expansion Draft occurs—meaning projections will become much more accurate following the upcoming off-season—there are several teams who already look like they could be in trouble protecting their top assets from exposure. In my opinion, the standouts are the Buffalo Sabres, Calgary Flames, Carolina Hurricanes, Nashville Predators, New York Islanders, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Washington Capitals. Each of these teams have strong depth in both forwards and defensemen, including valuable young players. The Flames, Hurricanes, and Predators will all have to make tough calls on the blue line between established veterans and budding young standouts, while the Islanders, Lightning, and Capitals won’t have much choice but to expose young defenders but will also face a crunch at forward that could cost veteran difference-makers.

However, at least each of these teams has a chance at postseason glory this year (hopefully) and next before their rosters take a hit. The Sabres should be the team most afraid of the expansion draft because they look primed to lose a key young player before they are even done putting together a contending squad. With many strong defensemen and a growing core of impressive forwards, Buffalo will have to expose notable names. On defense, only two of Rasmus Ristolainen, Henri Jokiharju, Brandon Montour, and Colin Miller can be protected alongside Rasmus Dahlin, while upfront the team must protect centerpieces Jack Eichel, Jeff Skinner, Sam Reinhart, and Victor Olofsson, not to mention the presumed top-six forward they have long been rumored to be seeking this summer, leaving few spots for a large group of up-and-comers including Casey Mittelstadt, Tage Thompson, Rasmus Asplund, and Dominik Kahun.

Gavin Lee:

When this year’s trade deadline was approaching and rumors started swirling around the Minnesota Wild, a few interesting names hit the news. The team was apparently considering a move of either Mathew Dumba or Jonas Brodin, two players who seemed to be core contributors that were still young enough to be part of a retooled competitive window.

The reason may well be the expansion draft, where new Wild GM Bill Guerin will still be in tough thanks to his predecessors.

Remember that players who have no-movement clauses require automatic protection from the draft, eating up precious spots. The Wild have four such players: Zach Parise, Mats Zuccarello, Ryan Suter, and Jared Spurgeon. If the draft rolls around and all four players are still on the roster (and refuse to waive their clauses), it’s going to be hard for the Wild to protect all of their young talent. Remember, even Zuccarello will be turning 34 just a few months after the draft.

Brodin is an unrestricted free agent in 2021, meaning he may end up on the trade block no matter what, but if they had any inkling of extending the reliable defender it would only complicate things further.

No doubt this was also a consideration when Guerin almost traded Parise to the New York Islanders at the deadline. Moving the veteran forward would really be a blessing for the team, despite how difficult it would be to see a franchise (and Minnesota) legend leave town.

Stretch Run Storylines: Ottawa Senators

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  We continue our look at the Atlantic Division with Ottawa.

Many experts had the Ottawa Senators finishing dead last for another season with a team that is in a full rebuild and so far very few stars to speak of. The team also fired its head coach Guy Boucher and replaced him with young coach D.J. Smith and was continuing with plenty of questions surrounding the team and the issues that always seem to arise with the franchise. However, the Senators didn’t look like the worst team in the league — granted they were the second worst, but at the same time, the Senators looked like a team that was improving and the long-term outlook of the team suddenly doesn’t look as bleak.

Draft Lottery

Just a year ago at this time, the draft was a sore spot as the Senators had traded away their first-round pick to the Colorado Avalanche for Matt Duchene. They had the best odds of giving the Avalanche the first pick in the draft. Instead, the odds went with them at the draft lottery as Colorado emerged with the No. 4 pick — still a good pick, but not as bad as a media relations disaster as it could have been had Colorado emerged with either of the top two players in the draft in Jack Hughes or Kaapo Kakko.

Suddenly one year later, the tables have turned. The Senators now have two lottery picks themselves. They have their own first-rounder (second-best chance to win the first-overall pick) and the San Jose Sharks’ first-rounder as part of the Erik Karlsson trade. With a dismal season, the Sharks are handing Ottawa the third-best chance to net the first-overall pick. Between those two lottery picks, the Senators have a 25 percent chance to walk away with top pick Alexis Lafreniere. Even if they don’t net the top pick, the draft is loaded at the top of the draft with up to 10 franchise-changing players, meaning that no matter where Ottawa lands, they are adding two stud prospects at the draft this year.

Goaltending Questions

With the contract of long-time starter Craig Anderson ending this offseason, the team finds itself in an interesting situation regarding their goaltending situation. The 38-year-old Anderson is a long-shot to return after a season in which the veteran allowed a 3.25 GAA and a .902 save percentage in 34 appearances. The team does have Anders Nilsson and Marcus Hogberg as potential replacements, but neither dominated last season. Nilsson, who dealt with injuries for a large chunk of the season, appeared in 24 games with a 3.18 GAA and a .908 save percentage, while Hogberg fared well in 20 appearances with a 3.12 GAA and a .904 save percentage. While neither showed any dominance, the team has to decide what they intend to do. Do they look at either netminder as a future starter?

The team may have to consider signing a goaltender to fill that starting role, whether that is a long-term fixture in net or a temporary replacement. There are a number of interesting goaltenders who will be available this offseason, including Braden Holtby, Robin Lehner or Jacob Markstrom. The question is whether Ottawa is willing to spend some money in order to add that piece. Of course, the other question is whether to free-agent goalies would want to go to Ottawa anyway with all the turmoil that has surrounded the franchise in previous years.

Rebuild Moving Into Next Phase?

The rebuild has been underway for a couple of years now and the team has gotten some quality play from some of that youth that the team has added with the draft picks its used with its many draft picks and trade acquisitions over the past few years. The team has been extremely cautious with many of those young players as they have put an effort in keeping many of them together this past year with the Belleville Senators. The AHL franchise was the top team in the North Division and looked to be heading for an interesting playoffs before the season was suspended. However, many of those talents are close to being ready to join the NHL club next season.

Players like Joshua Norris, Drake Batherson, Erik Brannstrom and Rudolfs Balcers look ready for full-time roles next year with several others not far behind, including Alex Formenton, Logan Brown, Vitaly Abramov, Filip Chlapik and Christian Wolanin. Developing that youth will be critical for an impressive full rebuild.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Stretch Run Storylines: Buffalo Sabres

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  We continue our look at the Atlantic Division with Buffalo.

The Buffalo Sabres had high hopes the team would make that next step this offseason and the team did start strong once again with Jack Eichel leading the way. However, once again, the Sabres struggled midway through the season and saw them drop in the standings and out of the playoff race. The team in some ways is quite young, but with no playoff appearances since the 2010-11 season, there is quite a bit of pressure on the team to figure things out and get back to winning.

Lack Of Long-Term Deals

One of the most interesting things about the Sabres is that their future is quite open as Buffalo has locked up just five players past the 2020-21 season and will have to start looking at locking up some of their talent long-term at some point down the road. The biggest problem for Sabres’ management is that they have made some poor decisions over the years with long-term deals handed out to Kyle Okposo and more recently Jeff Skinner, both of which currently look like questionable deals.

The team should gain quite a bit of cap space this summer with a number of players about to hit unrestricted free agency, including Wayne Simmonds, Michael Frolik, Jimmy Vesey, Zemgus Girgensons, Johan Larsson, Matt Hunwick and Vladimir Sobotka. While the franchise may bring one or two of them back, it does free up some cap room to add some talent. The team also have a number of restricted free agents, who could be eligible for long-term deals, including Sam Reinhart, Victor Olofsson, Dominik Kahun, Brandon Montour and Linus Ullmark. The question is whether Buffalo is ready to lock some of these players up.

Goaltending Questions

The Sabres thought they solved their goaltending issues a couple of years ago when they signed Carter Hutton to a three-year deal. However, that experiment hasn’t gone well either. The goaltender has struggled in a starting role, struggling even more this year than in his first season. This year in 31 appearances, the 34-year-old has a 3.18 GAA and .898 save percentage and finally the Sabres decided to split the starts between Carter and Ullmark.

Ullmark is a lock to return, but the question is what to do with Carter. Do they want to give him one more chance or perhaps buy out his final year. Is Ullmark, who did show significant improvement this season (2.69 GAA, .915 save percentage in 34 appearances), ready for a starting role? Should the team go out and sign one of the many big-named unrestricted free agent goalies this offseason? Lots of questions, but the team must make a decision down the road to fix those woes.

Development Of Youth

The Buffalo Sabres now need their youth to take that next step in their development. The team has finally seen Eichel take that next step into both a leader on and off the ice, which is something the Sabres needed desperately. Olofsson proved extremely valuable in his rookie campaign with 20 goals and 42 points in 54 games, but dealt with some injuries that prevented him from making an ever bigger impact on the ice.

However, what the Sabres need is for more of their young talent to take that next step. Casey Mittelstadt struggled even more in his second season with just four goals and nine points in 31 games and was sent to Rochester to work on his confidence. Promising youngster Tage Thompson also spent the season with the Americans of the AHL to work on his game and was injured quite a bit. Defensive acquisition Henri Jokiharju struggled in his first season as well.

What the team needs is for some of their young players to take that next step like Eichel. Buffalo needs more from Rasmus Dahlin, the first-overall pick in 2018, and they must successfully develop prospect Dylan Cozens if/when he makes the team next year. Others need to step up as well.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Stretch Run Storylines: Montreal Canadiens

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  We continue our look at the Atlantic Division with Montreal.

After narrowly missing out of the playoffs a year ago, the Canadiens chose to bring back virtually the same roster in 2019-20 and the results haven’t been as good.  As this point, their only playoff chances are if the NHL opts to go with an expanded field over resuming the regular season.  Nevertheless, there are a few players in particular to watch for if games resumed and they headline Montreal’s stretch run storylines.

Lindgren’s Time?

The Canadiens have been seeking a legitimate backup goaltender behind Carey Price for a long time now.  In recent years, they’ve used Al Montoya, Antti Niemi, and Keith Kinkaid with the results largely being underwhelming.  Throughout that time, they’ve had Charlie Lindgren in the fold but other than as an injury recall, he has rarely had the opportunity to establish himself as someone that could legitimately serve as the number two option over a full season.

Just prior to the shutdown, Lindgren had played in a couple of games and it looked as if he was going to have a chance at regular playing time over the final month of the season.  If play resumes, he should get that opportunity.

From his perspective, at 26, he’s nearing the point of being labelled a career third stringer if he doesn’t prove himself in the NHL soon.  From Montreal’s point of view, they need to see if he can be counted on for next season.  If not, they’ll be among the teams going after someone in free agency and with Seattle’s expansion draft on the horizon, they may have to commit a two-year deal to whoever they get which would be a big blow to Lindgren’s NHL aspirations.  If the NHL returns to regular season play, how he fares in his remaining games (as limited a sample as it may be) could very well determine his future with the team and potentially around the league.

Domi’s Next Deal

Max Domi’s first year with the Canadiens was impressive.  He blew past his career highs with 28 goals and 44 assists while adapting to play center on a full-time basis.  Heading into 2019-20, both Domi and Montreal were hoping for a repeat performance, one that would have solidified a long-term contract as a restricted free agent in the summer.

But that hasn’t happened.  Instead, it has been a roller coaster year and the numbers haven’t been anywhere near as good.  He set a franchise record with a six-game road goal streak but he only has 11 other goals outside of that stretch.  His assist total (27) is comparable to that of his time with the Coyotes which, while not terrible, is not long-term contract material either.  The team has experimented with moving him back to the wing to try to get him going and when that didn’t work, they moved him back down the middle but dropped him to the third line.

That’s not the type of platform year he was hoping for.  All of a sudden, a shorter-term deal is looking more realistic but a strong stretch run could certainly bolster his leverage as Domi is eligible for arbitration.  It was only a year ago that Domi looked like a core player in Montreal but that could be changing.

Which Version Of Drouin?

One of GM Marc Bergevin’s reasons for keeping the team largely intact from last year was the hopes that some of his younger players would show signs of improvement.  Number one on that list was Jonathan Drouin.  While he’s in his sixth year in the league, he only turned 25 last week and after a disappointing season, it was understandable to think he might yet have another gear.

In the early going of 2019-20, he looked like he was indeed taking that next step as he collected 15 points in the first 17 games of the season.  But things went downhill from there.  He was injured about a week after that hot stretch and the ensuing wrist surgery kept him out for the better part of three months.  After returning to action, a lingering ankle issue hampered him considerably and he was held off the scoresheet before being taken out of the lineup in late February.

The first version of Drouin from this season was a core player while the other version is a player that a team would have to provide extra incentive to take on.  Now that the ankle issue has healed, the Canadiens would certainly like to see if Drouin can get back to his early season form if games resume.  If things don’t go well, it’s a hole in their lineup that they may have to add to their offseason shopping list to try to improve upon.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PHR Panel: Coaching Candidates

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We’re now several weeks into an NHL postponement and there is still no clear timeline on when professional hockey will return. While fans of the sport have received small tidbits of news over that time, including college signings and contract extensions, the thirst for discussion has rarely been quenched.

With that in mind, we’re happy to continue our new feature: The PHR Panel. Three times a week, our writing staff will give our individual takes on a question many hockey fans have been wondering about. If you’d ever like to submit a subject for us to discuss, be sure to put it in the comments. This series will run each Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

To catch up on the previous edition, click here.

Today, we’ll each give our thoughts on potential coaching candidates.

Q: Which current unemployed coach will generate the most interest in the offseason?

Brian La Rose:

Gerard Gallant’s firing in Florida back in 2016-17 was rather stunning.  So was his firing this season with Vegas holding down a playoff spot and the fact there were discussions on an extension not long before it happened. He’s known as a good communicator which is becoming more and more important now which certainly helps.

What will also help is that both of his recent teams had a first-place finish under his short tenure which will catch the eye of owners and general managers looking for a quick turnaround.  The fact that he has had success with teams in a (re)building stage will be of interest to those types of teams as well.  In other words, just about every club with a vacancy (current or future) should have Gallant at least on their shortlist.  The underlying numbers and analytics may give a couple of teams some pause but if Gallant wants to be a head coach next season, he’ll have multiple teams to choose from.

One other coach that will likely get some consideration is Bruce Boudreau.  While his playoff track record isn’t the best, he has shown an ability to get a lot out of his teams in the regular season.  At 65, he’s not going to be looking at a long-term situation but rather one where he can go for another quick fix.  There will be teams looking for a speedy turnaround which will have him on the radar.

Holger Stolzenberg: 

Due to several coaching changes during the course of the 2019-20 season, there are many high-quality coaches that are available, including Peter Laviolette, Boudreau, Randy Carlyle, but probably most importantly, Gallant.

All will likely draw plenty of interest for teams looking to make changes at the coaching position, but Gallant is the likely prize of the bunch. The head coach did everything imaginable to lead a group of misfits to the Stanley Cup in his first year as head coach of an expansion franchise and continued to show his success in year two. That year ended early due to a bad call by the officials, but the veteran coach proved that he is good enough to coach any team and will be hired quickly.

Gallant does have a few detractors, who point to things such as sticking with his favorite players too long and his unwillingness to play forwards who lack quality defensive play, but for most teams, that’s a positive. Not entirely sure what team might be interested in his services, but he has proven an ability to work with all types of teams and should be a big success wherever he ends up.

Zach Leach:

Even if you feel Mike Babcock and Jim Montgomery are still off-limits due to past behavior and even if you think that Boudreau is played out, Laviolette and Gallant alone make this an elite free agent class of head coaches.

Laviolette has proven to consistently be among the best coaches in the NHL, making the playoffs in 11 of his 15 complete seasons. He has also done so with four different teams, showing an ability to quickly adapt to new rosters and personnel. Laviolette won the Stanley Cup with the Carolina Hurricanes in 2006 and has made an appearance in the Cup Final two other times with two other teams, including 2017 with the Nashville Predators. For a 55-year-old, Laviolette is extraordinarily accomplished and still has plenty of gas in the tank.

Gallant, 56, also has far more to give and is likely raring to go after a surprise firing this season. This is the second time that Gallant has been dismissed seemingly out of nowhere, the other coming in 2016-17 after leading the Florida Panthers to a division title the year prior. The 2018 Jack Adams winner deserves another chance after leading the Vegas Golden Knights to the Stanley Cup Final in their inaugural season, an unheard of accomplishment in sports, and taking them to the playoffs again last season.

Both of these coaches are elite and there will draw plenty of interest, with a number of potential openings and a new expansion team lurking. However, if I had to give the nod to one, I would go with Laviolette based on greater experience and a longer history of winning. It’s also worth noting that his Cup title with Carolina is the closest thing in terms of shock and awe to Gallant’s run with Vegas in recent memory, while his most recent Final appearance came just one year prior to Gallant’s. In my opinion, Laviolette is still one of the game’s best.

Gavin Lee:

It’s hard to argue against coaches like Gallant and Laviolette, but I think it would be foolish to overlook the aura that has always surrounded Babcock just because of the stories that followed him out of Toronto. There is a reason why Babcock pushed against the ceiling for coaches in terms of salary when he signed with the Maple Leafs in 2015, earning a whopping eight-year deal worth $50MM. He has been extremely well-respected around the hockey world for a long time and even though things certainly went south extremely quickly in Toronto, there will be teams that want him to come in and establish a winning culture.

No, I’m not by any means saying that Babcock would be my choice if I was looking to hire a coach this offseason. Even looking beyond the questionable motivation tactics he used during his time in Toronto and the stories of player frustration that have followed him around for a long time, there is reason to doubt Babcock’s actual results over the last decade. Since his last Stanley Cup Final appearance with the Detroit Red Wings in 2009, teams under Babcock have gone just 32-46 in the playoffs. In Toronto he was never able to make it out of the first round, though he did usher them to the playoffs in three out of four full seasons.

Still, a Stanley Cup and two Olympic gold medals will keep your resume at the top of the pile for a long time and if he wants to, the 56-year old Babcock will certainly have a chance to coach again in the NHL—a league that has a long history of hiring “hated” coaches after a short time out of the spotlight. Darren Dreger was even on TSN radio recently discussing Babcock’s future, and counted himself in the camp that believes there will be another opportunity for the veteran coach in the future.

Stretch Run Storylines: Florida Panthers

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  We continue our look at the Atlantic Division with Florida.

Optimism was high for the Panthers heading into this season.  Bolstered with a high-priced new starting goalie and a well-respected head coach (not to mention some other smaller upgrades), they were hoping to be in contention this season.  Instead, they’re presently on the outside looking in at the playoffs but are close enough to get in if regular season play resumes.  Their positioning in the standings is just one of the elements to watch for down the stretch.

Who Stays, Who Goes?

With a little over $60MM in commitments for next season, the Panthers have some wiggle room to work with this offseason although with only 13 players counting towards that total, they have a lot of spots before they can fill out their roster.  Heading into the season, it was looking like Florida would only be able to retain one of their two notable pending unrestricted free agents on the wing in Evgenii Dadonov and Mike Hoffman.  Trading Vincent Trocheck was supposed to help their chances but the potential for a flattened or lower salary cap now largely offsets that.  Accordingly, they may not be able to keep both of them after all even with Trocheck off the books.

After putting up 70 points apiece last season, Hoffman was producing at a nearly identical rate this year while Dadonov’s numbers dipped a little bit as he was on pace for less than 60 points, a mark he reached in both of his seasons with the Panthers.

Hoffman is about seven months younger than Dadonov and both will be expected to command a reasonably long-term deal this summer.  Even in a potentially deflated market, a five-year or six-year term may be doable.  As things stand, both should be looking at raises on their current price tags ($5.1875MM for Hoffman, $4MM for Dadonov).  If they can only afford to keep one of them, how they fare down the stretch and potentially in the postseason could go a long way towards determining which one stays with Florida.

Bobrovsky’s Struggles

In recent years, one of the themes around Florida was ‘if they only had even average goaltending’.  That position had been their Achilles’ heel but Sergei Bobrovsky was supposed to change that.  The Panthers demonstrated how confident they were with him being the long-term solution when they signed him to a seven-year, $70MM contract.

Let’s just say that they haven’t been rewarded on that investment yet.  The veteran has a .900 SV% on the season, his lowest since his sophomore campaign in Philadelphia when he posted a .899 mark in 28 games.  His GAA of 3.23 is the worst of his career by nearly a quarter of a goal per game.  These are numbers that are expected of a journeyman backup, not the second-highest-paid goalie in NHL history.  Instead, they’re getting basically the same results as last year, just at a higher price tag.

But some cause for optimism here isn’t unfounded.  Bobrovsky has gone on hot stretches in the past and carried a team on his shoulders and with the firepower Florida has, they don’t even need him to do that.  If he plays even close to a level of an average goaltender, that could very well be enough to get them over the hump.  He will certainly be one to keep an eye on if games resume.

Standings Watch

There are a handful of teams that will be unhappy if the NHL jumps immediately to the playoffs without expanding the format and Florida is certainly among those.  Earlier this week, captain Aleksander Barkov told George Richards of The Athletic (subscription required) that he doesn’t “think it would be right if we’re left out”.

That point of view is understandable as the Panthers are within striking distance of both a Wild Card spot and the third seed in the Atlantic Division; they’re within three points of each.  On top of that, they have a game in hand on Columbus and Toronto, the teams they’re chasing for those two positions.  They also have a game against the Maple Leafs that could very well make or break their fortunes.  Florida controls their own destiny if they get the opportunity to play out the rest of the regular season or at least part of it.  They’re likely to be the team that’s right in it until the end, assuming the end hasn’t hit already.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Potential Compliance Buyout Candidates: Part I

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As the current Coronavirus crisis wears on, it seems more and more likely that the NHL will not return to action soon and when play resumes, it will almost certainly not be the full remaining regular season schedule. That lost revenue is expected to impact the 2020-21 salary cap, perhaps even keeping the current $81.5MM upper limit in place. Given that teams expected an increase, initially projected to be between $84-88.2MM, this stagnation could have a harsh impact on a number of clubs’ cap situations. As such, many expect that compliance buyouts will return in some form or fashion to ease that pain. These buyouts, which do not count against the salary cap, would allow for teams to open up space that they otherwise expected from a cap increase.

Here is a rundown of the top compliance buyout candidates for the first third of NHL teams:

Anaheim Ducks: Adam Henrique

– The first team on the list is a tough call. Henrique has had a good season and the Ducks are not in significant cap trouble. However, with a long list of promising forward prospects and a defense that needs work, the team could opt to move on from the veteran forward and to create roster space and cap flexibility. Henrique, 30, is signed for four more years at $5.825MM.

Arizona Coyotes: Phil Kessel

– The Coyotes are in one of the worst positions in the league in terms of cap space, so the team would have to use a compliance buyout if the opportunity is offered to them. Kessel has been a relative bust in his first season with the ‘Yotes and is signed for two more years at $6.8MM. He has the potential to improve in year two, but Arizona may not have the luxury of taking the chance. The added cap space would be a major relief for the team.

Boston Bruins: John Moore

– Given the Bruins’ depth on defense in both veteran assets and budding prospects as well as Moore’s relegation to a backup role on the Boston blue line, he has become an expendable asset, especially if both Zdeno Chara and Torey Krug are back next season. Moore is signed longer than any current Bruins defenseman with three years and $8.25MM remaining, but the team’s commitment to him seems less than any of his fellow blue liners.

Buffalo Sabres: Kyle Okposo

– Unfortunately for the Sabres, the Okposo signing in 2016 has never panned out. His production dropped from 64 points with the New York Islanders in 2015-16 to just 45 points in his first year in Buffalo and that total has gone down in every year since. Okposo was on pace for just 24 points this year and may not even reach that mark. The Sabres would be quick to part ways with Okposo, who has three years at $6MM annually left on his contract, taking up valuable cap space that the team needs to use to improve the rest of their roster.

Calgary Flames: Milan Lucic

– Even with the salary being retained by the Edmonton Oilers on Lucic’s contract, his $5.25MM cap hit is still a pain for the Flames. The veteran power forward is not going to score 20+ goals or 50+ points in a season ever again and Calgary could do more with the added cap space over the next three years.

Carolina Hurricanes: Jake Gardiner

– For whatever reason, the Gardiner signing simply has not worked out as the Hurricanes had hoped. Gardiner, who was signed late last summer at a relative discount, has been a fine addition, but hasn’t been the point producer and power play ace that Carolina had hoped for. Following the deadline addition of Brady Skjei to arguably the deepest blue line in the NHL already, Gardiner and his remaining three years and $12.15MM are expendable.

Chicago Blackhawks: Brent Seabrook

– One of the more obvious choices on this list, Seabrook’s contract may the worst in the NHL right now. The 34-year-old has four years left at $6.875MM AAV on an eight-year, $55MM deal signed back in 2015. Over the term of the contract, Seabrook has declined rapidly and is a shell of his former self, regardless of health. The cap-strapped Blackhawks would not think twice about moving on.

Colorado Avalanche: Erik Johnson

– Johnson is a well-liked and well-respected long-time member of the Avalanche. However, as time has gone on the team has surrounded him with better, younger, and more affordable blue line options. As valuable as Johnson’s experience and leadership may be, he is an expendable piece without a clear future role. Signed through 2022-23 at a $6MM cap hit, Johnson is an expensive piece to keep around just for the intangibles and the Avs could look to use this opportunity to clear some space for some anticipated big game hunting this off-season.

Columbus Blue Jackets: Alexander Wennberg

– Blue Jackets fans have been calling for Wennberg’s head for years now and may finally get their wish. The once-promising young forward turned a 59-point 2016-17 season into a six-year, $29.4MM contract and then proceeded to regress immensely over the past few seasons instead of continuing to improve as expected. With another three years left at $4.9MM per, Wennberg doesn’t seem likely to get back to a level of play that would warrant his current cap hit and Columbus could move on, even from a 25-year-old homegrown product.

Dallas Stars: Andrew Cogliano

– The Stars are a team with numerous big names and long contracts, but their most inefficient name might just be Cogliano. Rather than using a buyout to move a heavy cap hit, Dallas could opt to trim the fat by removing a player that hasn’t been a good fit. Cogliano has showed that his six points in 32 games last season with the Stars following a trade from Anaheim was not a fluke; he followed it up with 14 points through 68 games this year. Expecting Cogliano to get back to 30+ point form in 2020-21 in his final year at $3.25MM seems hopeful at best and Dallas could use that space elsewhere with some lineup holes to fill this summer.

Stay tuned for Part II coming soon.

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