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Stretch Run Storylines: San Jose Sharks

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues and play doesn’t jump immediately to the postseason, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the weeks ahead, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  We complete our look at the Pacific Division with San Jose.

The San Jose Sharks made a solid run through the 2018-19 playoffs and looked ready to challenge for another run in hopes of winning a Stanley Cup final. Instead, the wheels fell off with the team struggling immensely. Lack of depth and not enough stars stepping up, San Jose wasn’t able to put together their winnings ways, which cost the job of head coach Peter DeBoer (who eventually took the Vegas job and turned their struggles around) and saw the team drop like a brick in the standings with the worst record in the Western Conference.

Hertl Bounce-Back

The team suffered through a number of injuries this season, but their most devastating loss was top scorer Tomas Hertl, who tore his ACL and MCL in his left knee during a game on Jan. 29. Even if the league does go with a 24-team playoffs, the Sharks would be on the outside looking in, so they have to  hope their star players can bounce back.

After a 35-goal, 74-point season in 2018-19, many thought that Hertl might take his team to the next level. His numbers, however, were down this year in 48 games, scoring just 16 goals and 36 points. The team will need the veteran to not only bounce back from a major knee injury and find that scoring touch, which could be a great challenge. Word is that Hertl is making valuable progress in his recovery and is well ahead of schedule, suggesting he should be ready to be ready for training camp, whenever that is. Of course, can he bounce back offensively?

Will Sharks Bring Back Veterans?

The Sharks will have a couple decisions to make about their longtime veterans, Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau. Both are unrestricted free agents, but do they want to bring back both their long-time stars for another year?

Thornton will turn 41 in July and has expressed interest in returning to the Sharks for another season. The veteran was open to a trade when the trade deadline neared, but he received little interest from top playoff teams and San Jose didn’t get an offer worth taking. Thornton remains a solid middle-six option for them. Even at age 40, he still managed to score 31 points, while averaging 15:30 of ice time. The question is can he keep those numbers up or will his play continue to regress, making him more of a liability on the ice.

Marleau is a somewhat different story as the Sharks did get an offer for him at the trade deadline and did trade him to the Pittsburgh Penguins for a conditional 2021 third-rounder (unless the Penguins win the 2020 Stanley Cup, which would make it a 2021 second-rounder). However, there have been plenty of reports suggesting that Marleau, who will be a unrestricted free agent this offseason, would be open to returning to the Sharks. Even though he will turn 41 in September, Marleau finished with 11 goals and 22 points this season and showed some of his old scoring ways. Again, those numbers are also career-lows even with the Coronavirus shortening the season. However, he is just 51 games away from breaking Gordie Howe’s games played record, which suggests he’s open to another season.

Goaltending Needs

The Sharks goaltending was also a significant reason for the teams’ struggles. San Jose locked up Martin Jones in 2017 to be their long-term goalie for the next six years, but with four years still on his contract, the team has to wonder if Jones is that answer. The 30-year-old is coming off two straight inconsistent seasons as he finished this season with a 17-21-2 record with a 3.00 GAA and a .896 save percentage. The hope was that backup Aaron Dell might be able to take a bigger load, but he struggled as well this year and now will be an unrestricted free agent in the offseason.

Where will the relief come from. It seems likely the team will bring in someone to help out, but with cap room being an issue, the Sharks may not be able to add anything more than a backup. The team did sign Russian goaltender Alexei Melnichuk to an entry-level contract. The 21-year-old dominated as a backup netminder in the KHL, but likely will need some time in the AHL before being ready to contribute.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PHR Mailbag: Expanded Playoff Threats, Buyout, Resumption Talks, AHL

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With most sports on hold indefinitely due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, it’s time for another mailbag.  Topics in this edition include sleeper teams in an extended postseason, the possibility of compliance buyouts, how things are progressing towards an agreement to continue the season, and the recent cancellation of the rest of the AHL campaign.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s edition.

acarneglia: Which team currently outside a playoff spot is the biggest threat in a 24-team playoff?

In the East, I’d put the Rangers as a threat.  They’re currently in the top five in the league in goals scored and while their goals against number isn’t pretty (tied for 23rd), they only allowed more than three goals in four of their last 19 games before the stoppage.  Of course, a big reason for this is Igor Shesterkin who quickly ascended to the number one role upon getting recalled and really gave them the stability between the pipes that they were lacking.  It’s a big if given his relative inexperience but if he was to come back and play at that level with New York remaining one of the stronger offensive teams, that could be a pretty good recipe to make some noise.

Out West, the Canucks are only out by virtue of the tiebreaker but of the teams not currently in at the moment, they’re the strongest.  They’re a strong score-by-committee team and that was even before they added Tyler Toffoli just before the trade deadline.  Vegas showed that a team that doesn’t have that elite producer can still do well with a lot of capable scoring depth and Vancouver certainly has that.  Jacob Markstrom has fully recovered from his knee injury and considering he’s showcasing himself for a big contract this offseason, he has a lot to play for.  A healthy starter and a deep attack could do some damage in a very tight Pacific Division.

aias: Any ideas on how the buyouts would work? Is this a one-time deal?

The Mistake of Giving Eugene Melnyk a Liver Transplant: How would compliance buyouts impact recapture penalties on the bought-out contracts? Also, would each team be limited to one buyout? If so, would teams be allowed to trade players so another team can buy them out?

vincent k. mcmahon: With the news a few weeks ago about Alex Steen considering retirement and the possibility of comp buyouts, would buying out Steen’s and Faulk’s contracts make enough room to re-sign Pietrangelo and add someone on the wing to replace Steen?

First off, the talk about compliance buyouts is strictly theoretical at this point.  With the belief that the salary cap will drop or be flattened out for a couple of seasons, some wonder if the league and players will negotiate a brief return of the cap-exempt compliance buyouts as there was following the signing of the last CBA.  But nothing is official yet.

I think it would be a one-time thing and probably limited to one per team.  Not all owners want something like this as it’s something that larger-market teams can exploit easier than ones with pockets that aren’t as deep.  I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a little different than previous versions though because of this particular situation.  An idea I have is that teams that execute the buyout also have to pay an proportional (or equal) amount into a fund that’s distributed to teams that don’t use one and is subject to HRR calculations.  That would provide a bit of disincentive for teams to use one unless they absolutely have to and it would also feed a bit to the players which might help their signing off on it.  I’d like to see the ability to trade players to be bought out (the trade market is limited enough as it is) but that is something the league has frowned upon in the past.

Salary cap recapture is only limited to the now-illegal back-diving contracts from years ago and a lot of those players aren’t in the league anymore.  At a quick glance, there are only seven active players left (excluding those still under contract but effectively retired) that are on one of those contracts and of those, most aren’t buyout candidates anyway as they’re still core players.  Jeff Carter could be a possibility but his lingering injury would make that tough and the Kings have plenty of cap space as it is so that might take Jonathan Quick off the table as well.  Maybe Zach Parise in Minnesota but I think that trade with the Islanders that fell through at the deadline gets revisited this offseason.  If I had to guess, if Parise was to be bought out under this scenario, the recapture would go away since it would be a cap-exempt buyout; it should, therefore, eliminate all lingering cap commitments.  (Sidney Crosby, Duncan Keith, Ryan Suter, and Shea Weber are the other active players on deals subject to recapture.  Zdeno Chara and Tyler Myers used to be but have since signed a cap-compliant contract.)

Would St. Louis really execute a compliance buyout on Justin Faulk?  While the cap hit may not exist in that instance, they’d still be paying him more than $30MM in actual money over 14 years before he played a single game on an extension they gave him.  Factoring in what they gave up to get him from Carolina and that is a huge price to pay to keep Alex Pietrangelo around on an even pricier deal.  Is Pietrangelo worth effectively $100MM when you factor in Faulk’s buyout cost plus what an eight-year deal for the captain would be?  Buying out a contract before it even begins would be unprecedented; even the Flyers waited two years before they decided to pay Ilya Bryzgalov for 14 years (through 2026-27) to not play for them.  I don’t think that’s something St. Louis would want to do.  I think they’d be open to a trade but not a buyout.

Alex Steen is certainly a buyout candidate whether it’s a regular one or a compliance one if those are allowed.  In your scenario, compliance buyouts of both would probably allow them to replace Steen with someone making about half of Steen’s $5.75MM price tag but it’s probably not going to happen.  The likelier scenario is buying Steen out and trying to clear some mid-tier salaries (Jake Allen and Oskar Sundqvist come to mind) for cheap replacements and try to leverage what should be a depressed free agent market into cobbling a way to keep Pietrangelo in the fold.

curtism88: All the talk in the MLB is about how much players will or won’t get paid when the season starts. How have talks in the NHL progressed so far and could we see a snag similar to MLB?

It’s a much different situation in the NHL and MLB simply because of where they are.  MLB owners want to institute an entirely new economic system for this season that would bring in revenue sharing and salaries (beyond the small amounts they were paid at the end of spring training) would be based off of that.  MLBTR has the details on that one so I won’t jump into that here other than to say they have a bit of a mountain to climb based on the early response.  Meanwhile, the NHL is trying to end their season and there is only one payment that players haven’t received yet.  Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic noted on Friday (Twitter link) that an NHLPA vote is being conducted this weekend to potentially defer it further (closer to a resumption of play).

Effectively, MLB is working on a revised schedule and salary structure while the NHL is basically just trying to either wrap up its regular season or jump to the playoffs.  Any potential snag at this point in the NHL would be tied strictly to safety and family concerns while MLB has that to deal with plus the financial situation which at this point is probably the bigger hurdle they’re trying to jump over.

By all accounts, talks between the NHL and NHLPA in that regard have gone relatively well.  They’re not at the point of a concrete proposal yet (whereas MLB owners have a formal proposal in place) but there hasn’t been a lot of public posturing on either side.  Not every player is going to want to return but I think enough either do or understand the ramifications of not returning are less than ideal that there shouldn’t be a ton of resistance.  A lot depends on the various jurisdictions in terms of allowable public gatherings which could impact how conditioning camps are held.  The 14-day self-quarantine window in Canada after travelling will also play a role.  Work visas typically run until June 30 so some work needs to be done there as well.  If play doesn’t resume, I suspect it will be due to virus-related issues more than the league and Players’ Association not finding common ground on a proposal to resume play.

ldoggnation: The AHL called the season over. Is that a precursor to the NHL doing the same? And (unfortunately) if so, when would the NHL call it?

Winter in Colorado: The AHL has cancelled its season. All the pundits say that league is dependent on ticket sales for revenue. Not all AHL teams are owned by their parent NHL club. With the possibility of no fans in attendance next year, is the AHL truly in trouble?

To be honest, I’m surprised it took the AHL as long as it did to make the obvious call official.  There was no way that they’d be able to resume games anytime soon and from an economic standpoint, they don’t have the TV and sponsorship deals that would allow them to at least mitigate some of the losses from not having ticket sales that the NHL does.  I wouldn’t attribute that as a precursor to the NHL considering the same though.  I believe Gary Bettman when he said he has no intention of calling the season.  With a willingness to delay the start of 2020-21 into December and play into the summer if needed, they can wait this out for a while yet.

With nearly two-thirds of AHL teams being owned by NHL franchises, I don’t think the league as a whole is in any sort of long-term jeopardy.  NHL teams need minor league affiliates and they will do their best to ensure the stability of that league.  I wouldn’t be shocked if there are less than 31 teams next season, however, as independently-owned franchises may not have the same desire to open up with no fans (or a sizable restriction on them).

It’s one thing to wipe out the end of a season due to no fans being able to attend but the NHL teams that own AHL franchises aren’t going to be as willing to throw away an entire year of development; fans or not, they’re going to want to run at least some sort of schedule next season.  I could see some of the independent teams suspending operations for a year, forcing their parent team to try to team up with others in that situation or find a few teams to loan a handful of players each to.  That was quite common not that long ago so in the short-term that should work again.  There will be some pain for next season in the AHL but the league as a whole should remain on solid footing assuming things eventually get back to ‘normal’.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Stretch Run Storylines: Los Angeles Kings

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues and play doesn’t jump immediately to the postseason, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the weeks ahead, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  We continue our look at the Pacific Division with Los Angeles.

It is not the best of times in Los Angeles right now.  Last season, both John Stevens and Willie Desjardins weren’t able to lead the team to the postseason.  They brought in Todd McLellan for this season but he hasn’t fared any better aside from the Kings going from last in the division to second last before the stoppage in the schedule.  If there is a stretch run, the focus will be on next season which is where our storylines look.

Left Defense Battle

To say that the Kings have a weakness on the left side of their back end would be putting it lightly.  Any remaining games are going to be chances for veterans like Ben Hutton and Joakim Ryan to make their final push for a contract for next season.  It’s possible that one of them returns but with GM Rob Blake indicating earlier this month that they’re expecting to add on that side before the start of next season, both getting brought back seems less likely.

On top of that, Mikey Anderson will probably be given a chance to stake his case for a full-time spot in 2020-21 as well.  He didn’t look out of place in a six-game stint after the trade deadline that saw him log at least 18 minutes a game in each of those.  Any remaining regular season action would be beneficial from a development perspective at the very least and if he shows that he may be ready for a regular role, it would give Blake a little bit more flexibility heading into the offseason.

Vilardi Showcase

It has been a rough couple of seasons when it comes to center Gabriel Vilardi as back injuries have lingered.  He was able to see some regular action with AHL Ontario this season and fared pretty well with 25 points in 32 games in what was basically his first real tour through the minors as a 20-year-old.

The Kings took notice and brought him up just before the trade deadline and he responded with a goal and an assist in his NHL debut.  Just before the break, he had points in three straight games and sits at seven points in ten contests despite not even averaging 13 minutes per game.

That caution was understandable as this was basically his first extended action in the better part of two years; it made sense to ease him in instead of giving him a big role right away.  But with this extended pause, the time may be right to ramp up his minutes if regular season play resumes.  Yes, the games will largely be meaningless but Vilardi is one of their top prospects and any opportunity to give him NHL minutes is useful.  Seeing him healthy and rested is something they’ve yet to be able to do.  This will be their chance.

Petersen’s Potential

The trade of Jack Campbell to Toronto just before the trade deadline paved the way for Calvin Petersen to be promoted to the full-time backup role.  He played well following the recall, posting a 2.64 GAA and a .922 SV% in eight games.  Those numbers were nearly identical to what he put up in an 11-game stint last season (2.61 GAA, .924 SV%).  However, they’re also a lot better than what he accomplished with AHL Ontario over that same stretch so there are certainly question marks about his ability to contribute at the NHL level.

With Jonathan Quick’s play tailing off over the last couple of years, there are viable questions about how much longer he’ll able to hold down the number one job.  At the very least, they need to explore moving closer to a time-sharing situation and the Kings did take a step in that direction this season.  If regular season play returns, this would be a good opportunity to give Petersen some more game action.  Can he play at the level that he has in his brief NHL action or will his performance revert closer to his AHL numbers?  While a few largely meaningless games wouldn’t entirely answer that question, this would be a good time to test him.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PHR Panel: We Miss Hockey

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We’re now more than a month into an NHL postponement and there is still no clear timeline on when professional hockey will return. While fans of the sport have received small tidbits of news over that time, including college signings and contract extensions, the thirst for discussion has rarely been quenched.

With that in mind, we’re happy to continue our new feature: The PHR Panel. Our writing staff will give our individual takes on a question many hockey fans have been wondering about. If you’d ever like to submit a subject for us to discuss, be sure to put it in the comments.

To catch up on the previous edition, click here.

Today, as the hockey world focuses on the upcoming draft and whether or not it will be held in June, we discuss what we miss most about the sport we love.

Q: Which part of hockey do you miss the most?

Brian La Rose:

The first round of the playoffs which, from an entertainment perspective, is the best one in my books is what I miss the most.

Depending on the schedule, there would be three to five games basically every night for the first week or so until some series ended early. Between the different time zones, you could always watch a couple of games each weeknight and on the weekends, they’d be staggered out even more which basically made each Saturday and Sunday ‘hockey day’ for a couple of weeks.

The first round often features some of the best matchups, especially with the current format. Teams are fresher; the wear and tear of the playoff grind isn’t there yet so the physicality can be higher than it is later on. And of course, the first round of the NHL playoffs is always good for an upset or two…or more.

The day-to-day grind that is the regular season is fun in itself. But mid-April often represents the most exciting time of the season.

Holger Stolzenberg:

Having spent the last 15 years in Vegas, I have really grown attached to the Vegas Golden Knights franchise and what I miss more than anything is the day-to-day life of the hockey world. I miss games, I miss everything about hockey. However, it’s the stories, the injury updates, the scores … life in the hockey world that I really miss.

I was just walking by a Golden Knights poster in my home when I remembered that the team is still sitting in first place in the Pacific Division. I had basically forgotten that the season is still going on and the playoffs, in theory, aren’t that far off. Yet at the same time, it definitely feels like these things are unlikely to happen for so long that I forget what it’s like to be a hockey fan, which I find quite disturbing.

It’s bad enough being shut up in your home, but having no games and little hockey news is definitely making this shutdown order even more challenging.

Zach Leach:

At this time of year in particular, the part of hockey that I miss most is playoff hockey. Even back in mid-March when the season was initially paused, the focus had already shifted toward the postseason for many clubs. Of course, the stretch run can be exciting for those teams on the bubble, but a number of top contenders were already closing in on locking up playoff seeds and a picture of how playoff match-ups might play out had begun to form. Instead of currently enjoying the fruits of the regular season, gearing up for Conference Finals, more than a month has passed since the last regular season game and we’re still left to wonder whether the playoffs will even occur this year and if so, in what form or fashion.

Playoff hockey is unlike anything else in sports; a pace and intensity that is unrivaled. The importance of each game and even each goal in the playoffs places immense emphasis on every second, leading to triumphant victories and heartbreaking losses. It is hard not get caught up in the excitement, regardless of whether your favorite team is involved or not. Fortunately, the NHL’s competitive balance is such that only the Buffalo Sabres and Arizona Coyotes have not made a playoff appearance in the past five years, so fans of nearly every team know how it feels to have recently had playoff success on the line. To have the opportunity to enjoy that experience stripped away this year without any concrete plan for a postseason revival down the road is a tough pill to swallow and is definitely what I am missing most as an avid hockey fan.

Gavin Lee:

Other than my own beer league games being canceled—which is killing me—the thing I miss most about the hockey season is actually the playoffs at the amateur level. The Frozen Four and the Memorial Cup are some of my favorite hockey every year, giving me a chance to see the next wave of talent headed to the NHL.

More than the scouting aspect though is the emotion these young kids exhibit. I’ve always leaned toward amateur sports because of how the athletes seem to wear their successes and failures right on their sleeves. A championship is a memory not only for them but everyone that has ever attended or cheered for the program, while a defeat is a bitter reminder of how difficult those titles are to win.

It’s also the finality that a loss brings which makes the stakes that much higher. Sure, getting eliminated from the NHL playoffs must be heartbreaking, but for most of the players involved they know they’ll have another chance next year. For anyone that has played amateur sport at a high level, the feeling of emptiness that follows the last game of your last season is unlike anything else. It’s the knowledge that feeling is coming that makes the games so much more important.

Stretch Run Storylines: Arizona Coyotes

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues (something the league remains hopeful of doing), there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the weeks ahead, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  We continue our look at the Pacific Division with Arizona.

This was the year for the Arizona Coyotes who looked to be a playoff team finally after a lengthy rebuild. The team was clearly headed for the playoffs at Christmas, loaded with star scorers in Phil Kessel and newly acquired Taylor Hall leading the way. However, the team slipped down the standings after suffering several key injuries in the second-half of the season and currently sit outside the playoff race, but if the team gets another chance at finishing up their regular season, they could surprise some teams.

Making the Playoffs?

If the regular season ended today, the Arizona Coyotes would not be heading to the playoffs. They still have a slim chance, but the word slim is optimal. They currently own a .529 points percentage with 12 games remaining. Unfortunately, the Calgary Flames would currently own the second wild card slot with a .564 percentage and both Winnipeg and Minnesota stand between the Coyotes and the playoffs. That’s three teams they would have to jump over, suggesting that it might be quite a challenge for the team.

The team might have advantages with a healthy goaltender tandem, and a defense-first system, but even if they dominate in the final 12 games, they might still have to hope for several teams to struggle out of the gate to help hoist them into the playoffs.

Taylor Hall’s Decision

The decision to trade for Taylor Hall wasn’t just for the final piece to the Coyotes puzzle. The move was also meant to convince the former Hart Trophy winner to sign a long-term deal to stay in the desert. Arizona, at the time of the trade was at the top of the Pacific Division and looked like a lock to make the playoffs. Hall was intrigued to go there.

Instead, the team has struggled since Hall joined the team, going 14-17-4 before play was suspended and it now looks like the 28-year-old will miss the playoffs for the ninth time in 10 seasons on the ice. General manager John Chayka is going to have to convince Hall, who had already decided he didn’t want to stay in New Jersey who was in a rebuild, that the Coyotes are a playoff team. With plenty of other teams ready to bid for the star’s services, likely with better playoff resumes, Hall may want to go elsewhere.

To make matters even more difficult for Chayka is that the team’s salary cap situation isn’t good right now and the GM will likely have to move out some players/contracts if Hall is willing to sign.

Kuemper Ready for Final Run?

Much of the Coyotes success was a result of the spectacular play of Darcy Kuemper, who established himself as the team’s No. 1 goaltender over injury-prone Antti Raanta. He played 55 games in 2018-19 with a 2.33 GAA and a .925 save percentage and those numbers only got better. At Christmas, Kuemper was amongst a short list of Vezina candidates with his play. So far this year, he has played 29 games and improved his numbers to a 2.22 GAA and a .929 save percentage.

Unfortunately, Kuemper went down with a lower-body injury on Dec. 19 and didn’t return to the ice until Feb. 25. While he played well in the four games upon his return, he did lose three of the four. However, with plenty of extra time to fully heal, could Kuemper bounce back and lead his team to another string of victories?

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Stretch Run Storylines: Vancouver Canucks

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues (something the league remains hopeful of doing), there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the weeks ahead, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  We continue our look at the Pacific Division with Vancouver.

The Canucks have been a team trying to pry their way into the playoffs after several years of rebuilding. The team even took that next step, trading their first-round pick last offseason to Tampa Bay in exchange for goal-scoring forward J.T. Miller, a deal that paid off as he leads the team in scoring with 72 points and is tied for the team lead in goals with 27. The team has been in the playoff race all season, but might have some challenges in the months ahead.

Playoff Race

The Canucks have 78 points at this point in the season and currently, based on points percentage, they would be the first wildcard team if the season ended today. That’s great news, but if the regular season resumes and is based on points, the Canucks would be out of the playoffs, meaning they would need to prove they can overcome teams like Nashville and Winnipeg, among others, to squeak into the playoffs.

Vancouver does have the advantage of being a young team that might have a better shot of jumping out quickly like it did when the regular season started and the Canucks dominated the Pacific Division for the first couple months of the season. Players like Quinn Hughes would be playing as if he was a second-year player and should be able to provide even more stability in their back end to help the team gain their way into the playoffs. Goaltender Jacob Markstrom, who was on LTIR before the suspension of play, is already fully healed from his knee injury, and ready to go — another big plus.

Pending UFAs

The team does have quite a bit offseason work to complete this season. The team has to lock up Markstrom to a long-term deal. The UFA could be one of the bigger names on the goalie market for teams, although he recently told Iain MacIntyre of Sportsnet, that he has no intention of playing for another team and wants to re-sign in Vancouver, which is good news for Canucks fans. The 30-year-old had his best season to date with a 2.75 GAA and a .918 save percentage.

However, the team has other issues, which could be challenging, considering the team is capped out. Barring a compliance buyout that could save them, the Canucks may have to make some significant moves to stay under a cap that likely won’t increase this offseason. The team also must consider contracts for veteran defenseman Chris Tanev as well as trade-deadline acquisition Tyler Toffoli, who looked exceptional in 10 games, scoring six goals and 10 points in a Vancouver uniform. That doesn’t even consider the team’s RFAs for next season, including Jake Virtanen, Adam Gaudette, Troy Stecher and Tyler Motte.

Hughes For Calder?

Hughes will have chance to walk away from the offseason with some hardware as it looks more and more like a two-person race for the Calder Trophy, for the best rookie. While many feel that Cale Makar was the runaway leader for the trophy, the play of Hughes in the second-half of the season has been exceptional and could be enough to vault himself past Makar in the running. Hughes did win our PHR poll in March by quite a landslide.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Stretch Run Storylines: Calgary Flames

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues (something the league remains hopeful of doing), there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the weeks ahead, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  We continue our look at the Pacific Division with Calgary.

The Flames have had a bit of a tumultuous season.  After winning the division last year, Bill Peters was let go early in the season for prior incidents that came to light.  Their top five scorers from 2018-19 are all producing at a lower clip this season.  They’re allowing more goals than a year ago while scoring less per game.  But despite that, they’re still sitting in a playoff spot and are within striking distance for second in the Pacific.  Here’s what to watch for from them down the stretch.

Scoring Races

Despite underachieving considerably compared to last year, Matthew Tkachuk (61 points) and Johnny Gaudreau (58) are in a tight battle for the team lead in scoring.  Both were starting to heat up before the break as well with Gaudreau averaging a point per game over his last 16 contests while Tkachuk had 19 points in that same span.  Neither will come close to their mark from a year ago but it should make for an interesting scoring race over the final few weeks.

There is another scoring race to watch for in Calgary between a current winger in Milan Lucic and their former winger in James Neal.  As part of the offseason trade, a 2020 third-round pick from the Oilers to the Flames was put in it with some rather unique conditions.  For the pick to transfer, Neal has to score at least 21 goals this season and have 10 more tallies than Lucic.

Let’s look at where things stand now.  Neal is at 19 goals so he’s two shy of getting the first half.  Meanwhile, Lucic has rebounded slightly from his goal total a year ago but he only sits at eight.  If Neal picks up a couple over their final stretch, Calgary should net themselves the pick unless Lucic comes back and gets on a hot streak right away.

Rebound From Rittich?

Expectations were high for David Rittich heading into the year.  The goaltender was coming off of a strong 2018-19 campaign and was expected to push for even more playing time this season.  He got off to a strong start as well, posting a .915 save percentage across his first 35 appearances.  That was a little better than a year ago (.911) and it helped him make it to his first All-Star Game when he took the place of Arizona’s Darcy Kuemper.

Things haven’t gone as well since then.  In his last 13 games, his save percentage plummeted all the way down to .883.  In other words, from about NHL average to below-average backup territory.  That’s not the biggest of sample sizes but his struggles and a nagging elbow issue paved the way for Cam Talbot to play more regularly before the pause in the schedule.

Can Rittich rebound after the break or will Talbot, who took a one-year deal last summer to take another run at landing a starting job this coming offseason, continue to cut into his playing time?  This is a potential dual-goalie situation which would be ideal for a compressed stretch run but come playoff time, they’ll likely want to stick with one netminder over a platoon.

Valimaki Ready?

Juuso Valimaki didn’t look out of place in Calgary last season.  The blueliner made the team and held his own early before being sent to the minors.  However, he was recalled late in the year and even saw some playoff action.  That had him in line to push for a regular spot on the back end until he tore his ACL in early September.  He wasn’t expected to play this season but the break in the schedule has made that a legitimate possibility now.

From a short-term standpoint, adding another defenseman would be ideal for a stretch run that will likely be compressed if it gets off the ground.  It’d also certainly be beneficial from a development perspective.

But there is another consideration at play.  If Valimaki plays in a single game in 2019-20, he would become eligible for selection in next summer’s Seattle expansion draft.  But if he doesn’t, he won’t accrue a professional season of service which means he’d fall under the exempt category.  By the way, that applies for any AHL playing time either in the unlikely event that their season resumes.

That presents Calgary with a potentially intriguing decision.  It’s hard to justify sitting someone that could help in a late-season or playoff game but are a handful of games from someone who has been off so long enough to justify making him required to be protected.  Worth noting, Mark Giordano, Noah Hanifin, and Rasmus Andersson will all require protection next summer and teams only have three guaranteed protection slots.  It’d be an interesting decision either way.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Stretch Run Storylines: Edmonton Oilers

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the weeks ahead, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  We continue our look at the Pacific Division with Edmonton.

No one was quite sure what to make of the Edmonton Oilers coming into the 2019-20 season. Back in 2016-17, the team made a promising playoff run, suggested that Connor McDavid was set to take Edmonton to years of deep playoff runs. Instead, the team collapsed for two straight years, being bounced from the playoffs both years and struggling with a weak defense and a lack of top-six talent. Add a new general manager in Ken Holland and the team under new head coach Dave Tippett is back in the playoff race, beginning to look like that 2016-17 team.

Hart Trophy For Draisaitl?

McDavid may be the face of the franchise, but Leon Draisaitl has been grabbing many of the game-to-game headlines as the German center has finally moved from McDavid’s wing to center his own line and has found success. He has formed his own line with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Kailer Yamamoto, which has had great success throughout much of the second half of the season. The 24-year-old who had 50 goals and 105 points a year ago, has already surpassed that point total in less games. He has 43 goals and 110 points through 71 games and is leading the league in scoring.

Could Draisaitl be joining McDavid as a Hart Trophy winner? He is 13 points ahead of McDavid who is second in the league in scoring. With the turnaround success of the Oilers, who are in second place in the Pacific Division, Draisaitl may just be the lead candidate for the trophy.

Trade-Deadline Acquisitions

The Edmonton Oilers picked up three players at the trade deadline in a hope to bolster their defense and their offense to another level. The team gave up two second-round picks in order to pick up the speedy Andreas Athanasiou, while also moving a future fifth-rounder for winger Tyler Ennis. They also moved Kyle Brodziak and a fourth-round pick to Detroit for veteran defender Mike Green.

However, the Oilers have yet to get much of a return on those investments as Athanasiou has appeared in just nine games with just one goal. Ennis has fared better with two goals and four points in nine games. Green has appeared in just two games due to injuries. The hope is all three can make significant strides when/if play resumes. However, if the season is cancelled, the Oilers will only have Athanasiou left as the other two will be unrestricted free agents and no guarantees that they will return next season.

With so few games under their belt, the learning curve for all three players could be significant as they have to learn a new coaching system and how to play with new linemates.

Loss Of A Teammate

With all the tragedy stemming from the COVID-19, the Oilers suffered a separate loss when forward Colby Cave passed away on Apr. 11 when he was placed into a medically-induced coma due to a brain bleed. The forward had appeared in 44 games with the Oilers over the past two years and he played in 11 games this year with Edmonton.

While he wasn’t a full-time player with the Oilers, he was a big part of the team and the Oilers will have to deal with that loss as a team. How the team handles it could have a big effect on how the team performs in the playoffs when/if the league gets the season re-started.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Potential Compliance Buyout Candidates: Part II

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As the current Coronavirus crisis wears on, it seems more and more likely that the NHL will not return to action soon and when play resumes, it will almost certainly not be the full remaining regular season schedule. That lost revenue is expected to impact the 2020-21 salary cap, perhaps even keeping the current $81.5MM upper limit in place. Given that teams expected an increase, initially projected to be between $84-88.2MM, this stagnation could have a harsh impact on a number of clubs’ cap situations. As such, many expect that compliance buyouts will return in some form or fashion to ease that pain. These buyouts, which do not count against the salary cap, would allow for teams to open up space that they otherwise expected from a cap increase.

After taking a look at the first ten teams, we move on to the middle third of the NHL:

Detroit Red Wings: Justin Abdelkader

– When Abdelkader signed a seven-year extension with an AAV of $4.25MM following his career-best season in 2014-15, it was perceived to be a bargain at the time and few expected that it would turn out poorly. Yet, with three years still to go Abdelkader has failed to impress in each of the first four seasons, recording a total of just 78 points and consistently missing time due to injury. On a young rebuilding team, the 33-year-old forward’s slow, plodding game is not a fit and his salary is not commensurate to his role on the club. New GM Steve Yzerman wouldn’t hesitate to buy out the career Red Wing if given the opportunity.

Edmonton Oilers: James Neal

– Last summer’s swap of Neal for Milan Lucic was labeled as two teams exchanging bad contracts. However, Neal got off to a hot start and ended up with 19 goals and 31 points despite being limited to just 55 games due to injury. That being said, the 32-year-old forward, who was a -20 this season, is still probably the worst contract on the team. The likelihood of Neal playing up to his remaining $17.25MM over three years seems slim and the Oilers could use the cap space to add a younger, better winger. If Neal has earned the trust of the team, Kris Russell could be bought out before his final year at $4MM.

Florida Panthers: Sergei Bobrovsky

– Would the Panthers move on from Bobrovsky just one year after handing him a seven-year, $70MM deal? That could be the biggest question of the off-season if compliance buyouts become reality. The star goalie’s first season in Florida could not have gone worse as he posted a career-worst GAA and didn’t boast a shiny save percentage either. Expected to be the Cats’ savior in net, Bobrovsky was anything but. If they hesitate to cut ties with Bobrovsky and his play does not improve, he would undoubtedly become the worst contract in hockey. Though on the other hand, if Bobrovsky goes elsewhere and succeeds and Florida cannot find a suitable location, some would surely say that they didn’t give him enough of a chance.

Los Angeles Kings: Jonathan Quick

– The rebuilding Kings have been trying to move Quick for a couple of years now and it would be a surprise if they did not take advantage of a compliance buyout opportunity. A holdover contract from the days of yore, Quick’s ten-year, $58MM deal signed in 2012 remained a bargain for the first half of the term until Quick hit a wall last year. While his play rebounded this season, Quick is still not playing up to the all-world level that had become the norm. L.A. is still a ways away from contending and can make more use of extra cap space over the next three years than a goalie who is past his prime.

Minnesota Wild: Zach Parise

– The Wild and new GM Bill Guerin came awfully close to trading Parise at the deadline this season and in recent years players who have been rumored to be leaving Minnesota are always eventually dealt. However, the potential trade included the team taking back bad salaries to facilitate the movement of Parise’s remaining five years and $37.69MM. Although Parise showed a return to form somewhat over the past two years, he has never been able to replicate his numbers from earlier in career and the team has generally been unhappy with the results of their 13-year gamble. If the possibility to dump the 35-year-old Parise without any cap repercussions opened up, it would become a serious conversation. More interesting would be if the Wild also discuss Mats Zuccarello as a buyout candidate after he was a bust in the first of a five-year, $30MM deal.

Montreal Canadiens: Karl Alzner

– While there will be those that find some of the bigger names on Montreal as intriguing buyout candidates, Alzner seems like an obvious choice that will improve the roster without any risk of releasing a good player or upsetting team chemistry. Few players in recent history have had their team turn on them following a major contract as quickly as the Canadiens did with Alzner. After signing the physical defenseman as a top free agent in 2017, the Habs decided just a year later that he was not worthy of an NHL roster spot following a difficult first season. Alzner has played just 13 NHL games over the past two years, buried in the AHL for the remainder. With two years at $4.625MM remaining, Montreal would be happy to be completely rid of Alzner’s contract rather than receiving just minor saving from sending him to the minors instead.

Nashville Predators: Kyle Turris

– For a long time, Nashville GM David Poile was opposed to handing out expensive, long-term contracts. That policy served him well for quite a time, as the Predators ended up with a number of tremendous values on the roster. Since the team has started to move away from that practice, things have not gone so well. Turris is the poster boy for this statement. He signed a six-year, $36MM extension with Nashville not long after being acquired by the club early in the 2017-18 season and has never lived up to the expectations. His 54 total points over the past two years is less than the one-year total the season prior to his joining Nashville. Turris has become an expendable player, not only missing time due to injury but also as a healthy scratch. The team has been eager to move him and they likely wouldn’t hesitate to do so with a compliance buyout.

New Jersey Devils: Cory Schneider

– An overpaid, under-performing starting goalie is one thing; an overpaid, under-performing backup is another. It has been quite a time since Schneider was the top man in net in New Jersey and young Mackenzie Blackwood has now taken the reins. However, Schneider’s horrific numbers over the past two year suggest that he isn’t even capable of being an NHL backup at this point in his career. With two years remaining at $6MM, Schneider’s might be the worst goalie contract in the league and a rather obvious buyout candidate.

New York Islanders: Andrew Ladd

– Ladd, part of the infamous 2016 class of terrible free agent contracts, Ladd has never provided adequate value to the Islanders compared to his $5.5MM AAV. The team finally buried him in the AHL this season after recording just 71 points through his first three years. With the majority of their forwards signed to substantial long-term deals, there is almost no chance that Ladd can ever work his way back into the NHL mix for the Islanders. New York was ready to move him at the trade deadline and would be quick to buyout the final three years of his deal rather than continue to pay major money for him to play in the minors.

New York Rangers: Henrik Lundqvist

– While it would be a sad day for the Blueshirts and their fans, the reality is that Lundqvist is the best use of a compliance buyout on the team. New York was considering moving young Alexandar Georgiev at the deadline rather than continue to carry three goaltenders, as Igor Shesterkin looks like the starter of the future and King Henrik has become an immovable contract. However, the team would be far better off retaining both young goalies and moving on from Lundqvist, who at 38 years old had the worst season of his career and still has a season remaining at $8.5MM. That’s a hefty salary to pay the man who would be your third-string goalie next season if Georgiev is not moved. The Rangers have no shortage of options though if they cannot overcome the loyalty they feel toward Lundqvist. Defensemen Marc Staal, $5.7MM AAV, and Brendan Smith, $4.35MM AAV, have both outworn their welcomes in New York and would not be missed in the final years of their respective contracts.

Stay tuned for Part III coming soon.

PHR Panel: Taylor Hall’s Future

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We’re now several weeks into an NHL postponement and there is still no clear timeline on when professional hockey will return. While fans of the sport have received small tidbits of news over that time, including college signings and contract extensions, the thirst for discussion has rarely been quenched.

With that in mind, we’re happy to continue our new feature: The PHR Panel. Three times a week, our writing staff will give our individual takes on a question many hockey fans have been wondering about. If you’d ever like to submit a subject for us to discuss, be sure to put it in the comments. This series will run each Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

To catch up on the previous edition, click here.

Today, we’ll each give our thoughts on the future of a pending free agent.

Q: Which team is the best fit for Taylor Hall in 2020-21?

Brian La Rose: 

Hall has not done himself any favors this season when it comes to helping his market value. It wasn’t crazy to think that a big year could have had him thinking about a deal similar to the one Artemi Panarin received but now, he’ll come well short of that and has managed just 27 goals in 98 games over the last two seasons.

At this stage, Hall could still fit in on a number one line but is better off as a matchup-beating second liner and that’s where his best fit is. But the teams where he’d be in that role are largely cap-strapped and a flattened or reduced salary cap will only make that more challenging; even Arizona is going to have a hard time keeping him around unless they find a way to get some cap relief.

With all of that said, I think Columbus could be the best fit among teams that can afford him in free agency. Their cap situation is pretty clean and they have some sizable deals coming off the books in 2021 that would allow them to mitigate some of the risk of a long-term deal that Hall will likely still get. The Blue Jackets are a team on the rise with some young talent that could push Hall into more of a secondary role as his contract progresses while in the short term, he’d be an offensive upgrade to a team that has struggled to score this year.

Holger Stolzenberg:

Usually when a team goes out and acquires a star player just before that player hits free agency, I assume that the player, this time Taylor Hall, will sign a long-term deal. Or at least that’s how it feels. The only recent exception I can think of is Matt Duchene when he got traded to Columbus. However, that move seemed more like a gamble and when neither Panarin, nor Sergei Bobrovsky re-signed, Duchene opted not to.

However, I get a similar feeling from Hall. While the situation is quite different for an Arizona Coyotes team that does seem to be up-and-coming, the team struggled once acquiring Hall with a 14-17-4 record—although much of those struggles had to do with their goaltending injury issues.

Hall has been on losing teams throughout almost his entire career and likely is getting tired of it. He has appeared in just one playoff series, losing four of the five games that he played. He might be more interested at this point in his career to sign with a top playoff team because of that.

The best option might be the Colorado Avalanche. While they have a lot of money invested in Mikko Rantanen as well as Nathan MacKinnon and Gabriel Landeskog, the team should have the cap space to lock Hall up as a top-six winger who could turn the Avalanche into Stanley Cup frontrunners for many years to come.

Zach Leach:

Every team in the NHL can and will try to make a case that Hall is a fit on their roster. But which team is the best fit for Hall? At this point in his career, Hall deserves to paid his fair value and to compete in the postseason year in and year out. At first glance, the only team with the cap space and the talent level to make that happen is the Colorado Avalanche. They are the likely favorites to land Hall this summer.

However, you can never rule out the hometown team. While Hall moved to Ontario as a teen, he spent most of his childhood in Calgary. The Flames have a surprising amount of cap space this off-season for a team with a considerable amount of talent. Most expect that they could use that room to replace the potential losses of defensemen T.J. Brodie and Travis Hamonic, they could opt to go in a different direction and supplement their scoring, especially after down years from many of their top-six forwards. Consider the possibility of compliance buyouts and the removal of Milan Lucic’s contract and Calgary could have even more spending power. Hall would be able to land the contract he has earned and play for a winning team with the added comfort of a familiar city, no less. The Flames are a dark horse option, but a good fit.

Gavin Lee:

You can bet that Hall will have his eyes set on a playoff team in free agency, but how many playoff teams will have their eyes set on him? The Blue Jackets, Avalanche and Flames are all good fits if they can make the money work, but I have an outside-the-box idea that may just be my favorite fit of them all.

In 2007, long before he was the Hart Trophy winner, a World Championship gold medalist or the first-overall NHL draft pick, he was selected in a different kind of draft. Hall was the second pick in the OHL priority draft, nabbed by the Windsor Spitfires who had gone 18-43-7 the previous year. Hall would burst onto the junior scene in 2007-08 as a rookie, scoring 45 goals and 84 points in just 63 games with Windsor. He, along with a second-year head coach that had only recently retired from the NHL, turned the Spitfires into a powerhouse that would go on to win consecutive Memorial Cups in 2009 and 2010. Hall was named the tournament’s MVP both times.

That coach, who had struggled so mightily in his first year leading the Spitfires, was none other than Bob Boughner. Boughner was given the reins of the San Jose Sharks this season after Peter DeBoer was let go and now has the “upper hand” to land the full-time job moving forward. If he is hired, what better player to try and bring the Sharks back to contention than his old prodigy from the OHL?

Sure, the Sharks aren’t in a great financial situation moving forward because of some hefty contracts they have previously given out, but it’s clear that they won’t be rebuilding next year. GM Doug Wilson has always been willing to go after the big fish and perhaps bringing in another top-flight winger (along with some improved health from Erik Karlsson) could jump the Sharks right back into the playoff hunt next season.

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