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PHR Panel: Offer Sheet Candidates

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We’re now several weeks into an NHL postponement and there is still no clear timeline on when professional hockey will return. While fans of the sport have received small tidbits of news over that time, including college signings and contract extensions, the thirst for discussion has rarely been quenched.

With that in mind, we’re happy to continue our new feature: The PHR Panel. Three times a week, our writing staff will give our individual takes on a question many hockey fans have been wondering about. If you’d ever like to submit a subject for us to discuss, be sure to put it in the comments. This series will run each Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

Last week we touched on potential playoff formats the league could use if the season resumes later this summer, and took a look at how the shortened scouting period affects draft prospects.

Today, we’ll each give our thoughts on potential offer sheet fireworks.

Q: Which players could be offer sheet candidates this offseason?

Brian La Rose: 

Islanders center Mathew Barzal would have been at or near the top of the list but GM Lou Lamoriello tried his best to put an end to that last month when he stated they would match any offer.

I’ve long thought that it’s the lower-priced players that make sense as offer sheet targets rather than the ones for top talent and perhaps this will be the year where that happens considering the potentially lower salary cap.

The Rangers are a team that could be hit hard by that which leaves someone like Anthony DeAngelo at risk.  He’s having a breakout year offensively but with Alexandar Georgiev and Ryan Strome needing new deals plus Kevin Shattenkirk’s buyout cost jumping, they may have a hard time keeping him which makes him a potential piece.  At the lower end, Brendan Lemieux could be an option as New York will want him to take a cheaper short-term deal which leaves them vulnerable to a longer-term offer.

Chicago could be vulnerable on the cap, especially if their currently injured veterans are cleared to come back.  In particular, they probably can’t afford to give Dylan Strome a long-term offer and can use his ineligibility for arbitration to try to force that direction.  But if he wants a long-term deal, he may have to take an offer sheet to get it.

There’s no guarantee that there will be one this offseason but the pending cap situation makes it more of a realistic option than it usually is.

Holger Stolzenberg: 

I feel like many people are talking about teams making big offers to the New York Islanders’ Mathew Barzal, but I can’t really see that as an option for teams. While there was one offer sheet last year that went to Carolina’s Sebastian Aho, I really can’t see teams allowing their franchise player to leave for any reason. Even if Montreal had made a bigger offer, it seems hard to believe that the Hurricanes would have let Aho go. The same would go for Barzal. After losing John Tavares to free agency, there is no way Lou Lamoriello would allow Barzal to leave.

The only way that a team would be able to pull off a successful offer sheet would be to attack a team right up against the cap with a mid-level player with a big offer. Teams need to focus on a team like the Boston Bruins and give an offer sheet to someone like Jake Debrusk, who with a solid offer, might outprice himself on a team full of expensive veterans. The question is whether a player like Debrusk is worthy of a solid offer that might overwhelm the cap of the Bruins as he isn’t necessarily looked upon as a franchise player. However there is a much better chance of success than going after a franchise face.

Zach Leach: 

I have always felt that an offer sheet is a tool of opportunity. It is not necessarily best-used to try to outbid a competitor for one of the best RFA’s on the market, but instead to take advantage of a team struggling against the cap or an internal budget. Should the 2020-21 salary cap come in below the estimation, a number of teams will be in that situation this year. For those lucky enough not to be left scrambling by an uncertain offseason, they could go hunting for valuable RFA’s on troubled teams.

No team is more at risk than the Tampa Bay Lightning. Tampa is lacking space heading into the off-season with a trio of prize RFA’s in need of new deals. I feel one of these three – Anthony Cirelli, Mikhail Sergachev, and Erik Cernak – is the most likely to sign an offer sheet. Not only can the Bolts not afford to overpay for these players without dismantling their veteran core, but each player also knows that they stand a better chance at playing a bigger role almost anywhere other than with the uber-deep Lightning. It’s also hard to imagine any rival clubs feeling sorry about weakening Tampa, arguably the strongest lineup on paper in the NHL.

Two other situations that bear watching belong to the Chicago Blackhawks and Toronto Maple Leafs, who each have impressive, older rookies heading toward RFA status. 24-year-old Dominik Kubalik has been a revelation for the ’Hawks this season and is likely to be a Calder Trophy candidate. Now that he has proven himself, a competitor could feel comfortable extending a high-salary, long-term deal that Chicago cannot match. If the Blackhawks do match or are proactive with a substantial extension, it would require a shake-up in the roster or could potentially leave Dylan Strome susceptible to an offer sheet himself. Meanwhile, Ilya Mikheyev got off to a hot start in Toronto prior to a season-ending injury but showed in that short time that he is a legitimate NHL talent. The Leafs cannot stretch their young, but expensive roster any further and would have to choose between Mikheyev and another young star if pressed by a sizable offer sheet.

Gavin Lee:

If I’m looking for a target to sign to an offer sheet, I’d never be going after a team’s best player. Those deals will almost certainly be matched, if they even sign it in the first place. No, I’m looking for that underlying group of talented players that may have not yet broken out or received the right opportunity. Obviously if a team is in a cap crunch it can be even more effective, but remember that the player has to be the one to sign it—as in, it has to be worth their while and you’re likely going to have to overpay.

One name that comes immediately to mind in that situation is Kevin Labanc of the San Jose Sharks. After an impressive 17-goal, 56-point 2018-19, Labanc bet on his own talent and agreed to a shocking one-year, $1MM deal with the Sharks. He’s now arbitration-eligible and an RFA once again, perhaps looking to make back some of the money he left on the table.

Now Labanc isn’t a sure thing. His production dropped this season to just 33 points in 70 games, but if you believe he can be a difference-maker on your powerplay and strengthen your middle-six, perhaps he’s the right one to target. The Sharks aren’t in a perfect cap situation because of their expensive, aging core, and are even down several draft picks after going deadline shopping the last few years. Maybe they would have to let Labanc go if he signed a substantial long-term offer sheet.

Stretch Run Storylines: Toronto Maple Leafs

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  We continue our look at the Atlantic Division with Toronto.

It has been an interesting season for the Maple Leafs.  An early coaching change yielded some early returns but before long, they were back to being consistently inconsistent.  At their best, they’ve shown they can contend with the top teams in the league but when they’re not on, they’ve been highly beatable.  A return to form for some of their top players would go a long way towards helping them secure a playoff spot if games resume and those underachievers are highlighted in the storylines to watch for.

Goaltending

Frederik Andersen has had some hot and cold moments throughout his tenure with the Maple Leafs and before this stoppage came, he was in the middle of one of those cold streaks, posting a save percentage of .879 over a three and a half week stretch in February.  That’s a below average mark for any NHL goaltender, particularly a starter on a team that has eyes on a long playoff run this season.

To his credit, Andersen was a lot better over his final three starts before this stoppage and that’s the level of play they’ll need from him if they want to contend.  Can he stay at that level?

GM Kyle Dubas decided to bring in some insurance just before the trade deadline with the acquisition of Jack Campbell who started off strong enough that he’d have pushed for a bigger role had Andersen’s struggles continued.  There’s something to watch for on his end as well – if he wins six games in the regular season, the conditional 2021 third-round pick would upgrade to a second-round selection.  Campbell is halfway there; if the season is played out in full, he’ll have a shot at getting there.  If not, it will be interesting to see if any proration occurs by the league to determine if the condition was met.

Playing For A Contract

Tyson Barrie’s first season in Toronto hasn’t gone as well as anyone would have hoped.  As a high-skilled offensive blueliner, going to a team with a lot of top-end firepower seemed like a good fit for him to have a big season in his UFA walk year.

But that hasn’t happened.  Instead, he has dropped to just five goals on the season, his lowest full-season total of his career.  It’s not due to a lack of playing time either as he’s averaging slightly more ice time than he was last season with Colorado when he had a career high in points.

Not surprisingly, his name was in trade speculation leading into the trade deadline although clearly, nothing came of it.  With the Maple Leafs hoping to contend and them only carrying half of his contract with the Avs paying the rest, it was going to be hard to find a right fit that would have brought them another top-four defender back.

Not only would Barrie rebounding be a big boost for Toronto but it would also be a boon to his free agent stock which has taken a bit of a hit this season before even factoring in the looming questions regarding the Upper Limit of the salary cap.  There’s certainly a lot riding on how the rest of the year goes for him.

Matthews’ Quest

Auston Matthews was having quite the season offensively before the rinks went quiet.  He sits just three goals shy of the 50-goal mark and if he can get there, he’d become just the fourth player in franchise history (joining Dave Andreychuk, Gary Leeman, and Rick Vaive) to reach that mark.  If games resume with close to a full schedule, he’ll have a good shot at getting there.

That takes us to the second half of his quest.  Vaive holds the franchise record at 54 with Matthews sitting at 47 in 70 games, a goal per game mark of 0.67.  Toronto had 12 games left in the season.  At that rate, Matthews would project to get eight more which would have got him the record.  He’d likely need the league to play out the full 82 games to have a shot at setting the new record but if that happens, this will certainly be something to watch for.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PHR Panel: Franchise Building Blocks

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We’re now several weeks into an NHL postponement and there is still no clear timeline on when professional hockey will return. While fans of the sport have received small tidbits of news over that time, including college signings and contract extensions, the thirst for discussion has rarely been quenched.

With that in mind, we’re happy to introduce a new feature: The PHR Panel. Three times a week, our writing staff will give our individual takes on a question many hockey fans have been wondering about. If you’d ever like to submit a subject for us to discuss, be sure to put it in the comments. This series will run each Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

Last week we touched on potential playoff formats the league could use if the season resumes later this summer, and took a look at how the shortened scouting period affects draft prospects.

Today, we’ll each give our thoughts on who we would want to build a franchise around.

Q: If you had to build a team around one player drafted in the past three years, who would it be?

Brian La Rose:

It’s the age-old debate of what’s more valuable—the number one center or the number one defenseman.  Two players from the 2017 draft immediately jump to mind in Colorado’s Cale Makar and Vancouver’s Elias Pettersson.

In Makar, Colorado has a dynamic offensive threat from the back end and considering he has just one full season under his belt, it’s certainly reasonable to expect that he will improve considerably from where he is now.

Meanwhile, Pettersson has immediately stepped into a key role in Vancouver and this season, he proved that his rookie campaign was no fluke.  He has shown that he can handle the rigors of playing down the middle without too much difficulty.

Makar is going to be an elite offensive weapon in the NHL.  He basically already is.  But I’m not sure his defensive game gets quite to that level.  Meanwhile, Pettersson has made some strides defensively and has the potential to be that all situations type of player.

If I’m a GM building a team around one of the two, I’d take Pettersson as a result.  There are no limitations with him—he should soon be a point-per-game player or better and number one centers are extremely hard to acquire outside of the draft.  Makar is an electric player already with room to get even better but will his defensive play improve to where he can be that all situations player?  I’m not as certain about that so I’ll take the safer play with Pettersson.

Holger Stolzenberg: 

There are a number of impressive prospects who have made quite an impact early in their careers and while I could easily go with a defenseman like Makar or Quinn Hughes as the anchor to my team’s defense and quarterback of my power play, I am still of the belief that if possible, it’s always better to build around your centers, just like the New Jersey Devils have done over the past three years, picking up both Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes.

Looking at all the top centers drafted over the past three years, I’m inclined to pick the Canucks’ Pettersson as the player that I would build around. Pettersson spent his first season in the SHL where he broke numerous rookie records and was often compared to the great Sedin twins. He came to North America and had an impressive rookie season in 2018-19 in which he posted 28 goals and 66 points. He matched that production again this year with a 27-goal, 66-point campaign in 68 games, while avoiding a major injury.

The skilled forward has taken the Canucks to a whole new level of play this season and had them in the middle of a playoff race before the shutdown. Pettersson still has plenty of room to take his game up a level or two and in my opinion, makes the most sense to build a team around.

Zach Leach:

I am a firm believer in building a team around the literal centerpiece of your lineup: a top line center. Look back through the annals of NHL history and you will be hard-pressed to find a Stanley Cup winner that didn’t have an elite center on their first line and usually a top option on their second line as well. A top contender is built down the middle.

The problem with this premise and the past three draft classes is that too few centers have yet to establish themselves as “elite” in the NHL. The jury is still out on 2019 No. 1 pick Jack Hughes, who disappointed as a first-year pro, and New Jersey Devils teammate Nico Hischier is a solid two-way player, but to this point has shown limited star power. Carolina’s Martin Necas, Vegas’ Cody Glass, and Chicago’s Kirby Dach are among a large group who simply have too small of an NHL sample size as well.

Vancouver’s Elias Pettersson is the only player who might fit the bill. The reigning Calder Trophy winner has posted 66+ points in back-to-back seasons to begin his NHL career and has shown strong offensive instincts and a sniper’s touch. However, it remains to be seen whether he will actually continue to line up at center for the Canucks, who have used him on the wing more often than not this season. The winger role would seem to align better with his style and tendencies, but does bring down his value somewhat. Petterson is a hard player to pass up, but I’m not entirely sold that he can be a team’s best player.

So if not Pettersson, then who? If not a center, then what position? A superstar defenseman is another highly valuable asset and there are at least four who fit the mold among the past three classes: Buffalo’s Rasmus Dahlin, Dallas’ Miro Heiskanen, Vancouver’s Quinn Hughes, and Colorado’s Cale Makar. While all project to be elite, top-pair defensemen, only one to me is destined to be a perennial Norris Trophy candidate.

Makar is my choice as the best available player to build around. Between his collegiate career, taking UMass from an unknown to the National Championship game, to his NHL start, a strong playoff debut followed by what could very likely be a Calder-caliber rookie season, Makar has left few questions unanswered. A generational puck-mover who already skates and sees the ice as well as anyone, Makar is also not afraid to throw his weight around and shows good defensive awareness and the speed to make up for any mistakes. Perhaps most importantly, Makar has already shown some prize intangibles in college and the pros, including leadership ability and the ability to excel under pressure. Even on a loaded Avalanche roster, it is not hard to see a day when Makar could be the team’s very best player, as he could for most NHL clubs.

Gavin Lee:

In a year’s time you may be talking about Jack Hughes, Kaapo Kakko or Kirby Dach as potential options here, but there just hasn’t been enough time for any of them to prove they can be franchise-altering talents. That’s the kind of thing they’re going up against when you look back at the 2017 and 2018 drafts, which provided a huge number of potential league superstars.

It’s hard to argue with the selection of Pettersson, who looks like he’ll be a first-line center for years to come in Vancouver. Hughes, his teammate, would also be an outstanding pick and gives the Canucks a dynamic duo that will make opponents regret taking any penalties over the next decade. Either one would be a great building block for your franchise, just as players like Rasmus Dahlin, Andrei Svechnikov, Miro Heiskanen or even Hischier—who is routinely overlooked when discussing up-and-coming talents—would be.

But my choice lies in Colorado, where Makar has quickly taken over as the second-best player on a team already loaded with other top talents. It’s easy to forget that just three years ago the toughest competition Makar had faced was in the AJHL, and now he’s making NHL opponents look silly on a regular basis. The 21-year old simply doesn’t have an offensive ceiling and could well be competing for the Norris Trophy instead of the Calder in a year’s time.

PHR Originals: 3/23/20 – 3/29/20

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Here’s a rundown of the original content here at PHR over the past week.

Our Stretch Run Storylines continues as we wrapped up our tour of the Central Division and shifted to the Eastern Conference to begin previewing the Atlantic Division.

Minnesota: The Wild certainly got a boost following the coaching change that saw Dean Evason take over from Bruce Boudreau and Evason’s future as the bench boss may very well come down to how they fare down the stretch (if there is one).  However, I believe the biggest thing to watch for will be Devan Dubnyk.  Saying he has struggled this season would be putting it nicely and for them to make a push the rest of the way this year and even into 2020-21, he will need to get back to a starting goaltender level.

Chicago: While the Blackhawks would make it to the playoffs if a 24-team proposal gets adopted, that’s about their only postseason hope.  With that in mind, players playing for their next contracts becomes their focal point.  I took a look at some of the players who are in that situation including Corey Crawford who will be hoping to land another contract with Chicago for next season.

Boston: The Bruins have been the top team in the league for most of the season and naturally, one of the questions will be whether or not they’ll be able to pick up where they left off and hold down first overall.  As Holger noted though, one of the key things for them will be integrating late acquisitions Nick Ritchie and Ondrej Kase into their lineup.  The pause in the season certainly makes that a bit more challenging, especially if the NHL winds up jumping quickly to the playoffs.

Tampa Bay: After a quiet start to the season, the Lightning have been one of the stronger teams in the East in recent months as expected.  Holger assessed their situation, highlighting how the pause in the schedule should help ensure that one of their top players will be healthy if play resumes.  That will certainly be critical as if the usual playoff format remains intact, they could be in for a very high octane series against Toronto in the first round.

One of the more intriguing trophy races down the stretch is the Hart Trophy for the player most valuable to his team.  There are several players that legitimate cases could be made for if the season winds up being over but that could certainly change if regular season games resume.  As things stand, who should get the nod?  Make your vote count here.

The Vezina Trophy is going to be a tricky one as well.  Statistically, the top goalies have played in fewer games due to injuries or a platoon situation which could open the door for someone like Connor Hellebuyck.  However, Winnipeg is barely holding down a playoff spot which may dissuade voters.  With that in mind, who would you pick?  Make your choice here.

We debuted a new series called the PHR Panel which gathers the opinions of each of our writers on topics around the league.  Our first one discussed which of the various playoff formats that have been suggested if the regular season is unable to last a full 82 games.  The second discussed how the cancellations of playoffs and tournaments would impact the various types of draft prospects and which ones would be the most affected.  This series will run each Monday, Wednesday, and Friday.

Stretch Run Storylines: Tampa Bay Lightning

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  We look at the Atlantic Division with Tampa Bay.

It’s been a strange year for the Tampa Bay Lightning, who many felt would step into the 2019-20 season with vengeance in their minds after an embarrassing first-round exit in the playoffs last year when they were the most dominant team in hockey. Instead, the team started slowly and quickly found themselves sitting outside the playoffs. There was even some discussion that the team could let go head coach Jon Cooper, although general manager Julien BriseBois gave him a vote of confidence. Then everything changed around Christmas when the Lightning went on a 10-game winning streak and followed that up in late January with an 11-game winning streak that vaulted them into a solid second place standing in the Atlantic Division.

Stamkos Return?

The timing of his injury couldn’t have been worse back in early March when it was announced that Steven Stamkos would be out for six to eight weeks to have surgery to repair a core muscle injury. That would likely have required the top-line star to miss the first round of the playoffs in the best case scenario. The suspension of play is only going to be an advantage to injured players as it gives them time to heal and Stamkos could receive the biggest advantage as he now should have plenty of time to recover and be ready to hit the ice when play resumes. So far he’s close to reaching the half-way point of his recovery process and in a few weeks time could be ready for action again, which should be plenty of time.

Stamkos is second on the team in scoring with 29 goals and 66 points and while those numbers are down compared to previous seasons, likely due to his core muscle injury that has slowed him down, a healthy Stamkos could be a difference-maker in the playoffs.

Salary Cap Issues

The Lightning also have to start looking to the 2020-21 season when their salary cap could be significantly affected, especially if the cap flatlines. The team doesn’t have any significant contracts that are set to expire and those that are, like Kevin Shattenkirk or Pat Maroon, are players the Lightning are likely going to want to extend.

Throw in the fact that goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy’s new contract will kick in as his AAV will go from $3.5MM to $9.5MM, and the fact that defenseman Mikhail Sergachev’s entry-level deal expires, meaning a raise is in order for the fast-developing blueliner and Tampa Bay has some issues.

That likely will require BriseBois to make some trades to fix those cap concerns and even out their roster. He had some success at that last year when he was able to trade forward J.T. Miller to Vancouver for a conditional first-rounder that since has been traded away for more immediate help. The team may have to unload even more this offseason to balance the cap.

Potential Meeting With Maple Leafs

If the playoffs do hit, it almost seems inevitable that the Lightning will find themselves with the inconsistent, but potential playoff wrecker in the Maple Leafs. The team avoided their top-heavy Atlantic last season, clinching first place and a wild-card opponent. Unfortunately, that didn’t go well as they were swept by Columbus.

However, with Boston eight points ahead of the Lightning, it’s obvious that they will face off against Toronto. While the Maple Leafs have been erratic all season, that doesn’t mean the Lightning are looking forward to the combination of John Tavares, Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander, any of which can change the outcome of playoff games. It could be the most interesting of the first-round matchups, assuming the playoffs happen.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Stretch Run Storylines: Boston Bruins

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  We open up our look at the Atlantic Division with Boston.

Whereas many teams that fall just short of a Stanley Cup championship struggle maintaining their success the following season, that hasn’t been the case in Boston, where the Bruins have been dominant one of the most top-heavy divisions in the NHL. The Bruins have been clearly the best team in the NHL as they are the only team to have broken the 100-point mark before the NHL suspended their season. It’s clear that Boston’s only goal is return to the Stanley Cup Finals and this time win it.

Can Suspension Of Play Affect Bruins’ Succcess?

The Bruins have been rolling and looked like the top candidate to win a Stanley Cup. However, a break in play can’t be good for a team that was playing this well. The Bruins have won 16 of their last 20 games. A long break could definitely affect players in different ways — whether they are all staying to top shape, etc. as well as how they play with each other. It could take longer than usual for any team to regain their form.

With that the NHL could shorten or even cancel the remainder of the regular season in hopes of pushing the playoffs even closer, Boston, full of veteran players, could find themselves struggling to get out of the gate and an early playoff exit could be a real possibility.

Injured Players

The Boston Bruins accomplished all this despite struggling significantly with injuries on the back end. Over the season, the team has dealt with significant injuries to John Moore, Kevan Miller, Charlie McAvoy, Torey Krug and Connor Clifton, but has been able to put together a patch work of players to fill out their rosters while their players recover on injured reserve. The forward lines have also been hit hard with numerous injuries as well.

While most of those players were back with the team before the season was suspended, the break could offer some positive points as well. It will offer a significant advantage to the team who has been ravaged by injuries this season. If all players have plenty of time to get over their injuries, they may have a full and complete roster to help them to their eventual goal.

Trade Deadline Acquisitions

The Boston Bruins picked up a couple of key forwards at the trade deadline when it acquired Ondrej Kase and Nick Ritchie from Anaheim in separate deals. The hope that Kase would provide the team a significant upgrade to the team’s top-six, while Ritchie could also add some key depth to Boston’s bottom six.

Kase, who was injured at the time of the trade, hasn’t accomplished that yet. He was activated a few days after the trade and immediately placed on the top line, but in seven games had registered only an assist. The team’s hope was that being surrounded with veteran talent would bring out Kase’s potential to score goals and turn him into the high-scoring player that many envisioned when he scored 20 goals in 2017-18. Ritchie had a goal and an assist in seven games, another player who the team felt had potential.

However, considering that it takes time to develop cohesiveness with new teammates on the ice, this break certainly won’t make it easier for either player to improve and adjust to a new team, especially if the regular season is cut short or cancelled.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Stretch Run Storylines: Chicago Blackhawks

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  We wrap up our look at the Central Division with Chicago.

It has been another disappointing season for the Blackhawks who sit at the bottom of the division with their only hope of a playoff spot being an expanded field.  For the most part, their veterans have underachieved which has to be a bit concerning to a team that has several key veteran players on long-term deals.  However, one of their few veterans not on a long-term pact is one of their top storylines for the stretch run.

Bridge Or Long-Term?

The Blackhawks have limited cap space to work with as they have more than $73MM in commitments already for next season.  Despite that, center Dylan Strome and Dominik Kubalik are a pair of youngsters that will be vying for a long-term pact if the team can free up some extra funds over the offseason.  How they fare down the stretch may ultimately help GM Stan Bowman which one to try to sign to something other than a bridge deal if the cap room is there.

Strome hasn’t been as productive as he was last season, his first with Chicago but that wasn’t entirely unexpected.  After going from being a middling player in Arizona to nearly a point-per-game player, this season was going to fall somewhere in between that.  The end result hasn’t been half bad as he has picked up a dozen goals and 26 assists in 58 games.  He now has 116 games in a Blackhawks uniform but is that enough to get a long-term deal?  If the regular season plays out in full, another 12 games could actually help sway things.

Kubalik has been one of the bigger pleasant surprises in the league this season, jumping in with 30 goals in his rookie campaign.  Of course, he’s not as young as most rookies are as he’ll be 25 at the start of next season.  That has him two years away from unrestricted free agency and arbitration-eligible already.  A bridge deal walks him to UFA eligibility but with only 68 NHL games as a track record, that’s not much to go off of.  Like Strome, playing out the final dozen games may wind up helping (or hurting) his chances of a long-term pact.

Crawford’s Future

When the Blackhawks signed Robin Lehner to a one-year deal in the summer, it felt like a potential sign that they had decided that Corey Crawford’s days as their full-time starter were over.  But Crawford slightly outperformed Lehner in a virtual platoon situation and Lehner was eventually dealt to Vegas at the trade deadline.  Does that mean that Crawford is again the goalie of the future?

That’s what he’s certainly hoping for but it’s far from a given that he has done enough to show it.  He has had difficulty staying healthy in recent years and he’s 35.  There aren’t a lot of legitimate starters at that age still out there.

But let’s look back at their cap situation.  With Strome and Kubalik to re-sign on top of their current commitments, they can’t afford to be shopping at the top end of the market in free agency.  They’ll need to go with a more affordable option which could very well be Crawford.  Before the pandemic, it certainly seemed like a short-term contract extension was quite possible and a good finish to the year could help his chances of getting the strong side of the platoon next year.

Reverse Standings Watch

What do teams do when they’re out of contention?  They keep looking at the standings but instead of looking up, they look down.

As things currently sit, Chicago is ahead of eight teams in the overall standings but half of the teams behind them are within five points.  That margin is certainly erasable if the NHL plays out a full 82-game schedule and it’s notable that two of their remaining 12 contests are against teams in that group just behind them.

It’s a given that players like Kirby Dach, Adam Boqvist, and Nicolas Beaudin will get more playing time down the stretch and for Chicago fans, that will certainly be something to watch for.  How they perform will go a long way towards determining whether the Blackhawks stay where they are or fall back a bit and improve their odds at the Draft Lottery (whenever it happens to be rescheduled for following its postponement earlier this week).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PHR Panel: Draft Prospect Impact

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We’re now two weeks into an NHL postponement and there is still no clear timeline on when professional hockey will return. While fans of the sport have received small tidbits of news over that time, including college signings and contract extensions, the thirst for discussion has rarely been quenched.

With that in mind, we’re happy to introduce a new feature: The PHR Panel. Three times a week, our writing staff will give our individual takes on a question many hockey fans have been wondering about. If you’d ever like to submit a subject for us to discuss, be sure to put it in the comments. This series will run each Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

Earlier this week we gave our thoughts on potential playoff formats the league could use coming out of the pause. Today, we’ll talk about how draft prospects are impacted by the sudden conclusion of their junior and college seasons.

Q: Which kind of draft prospect is impacted the most by the shortened scouting season—high-, mid- or late-round?

Brian La Rose:

By now, teams have a pretty good idea of the players that are going to be at or near the top of their draft lists.  There could be some movement up or down but most players ranked in the first round on a list at this point are still probably going to be ranked in the first round when final lists are set.

The stretch run and playoffs can certainly help a mid-ranked player move up (or down) but it shouldn’t affect their stock in terms of being drafted.  It would take a significant injury or a dreadful late performance to knock a player from being ranked mid-round midseason to the do not draft list.

That can’t be said for the late-round prospects.  Oftentimes, a big showing in the playoffs or the Under-18’s can make that lasting impression that gets them onto the late flier list.  Conversely, the lower-ranked player that played well at the start of the season but struggles in such an event can fall off the list entirely.  The movement in the rankings is much more drastic.

There is a considerable gap between first-rounders and those taken after.  There is a small difference between second and third-rounders relative to those who go later.  But once you hit the back end of the draft, the gap is minimal and it doesn’t take much to rise or fall in those rankings.  That’s why they’re the most impacted by the early ends to their respective seasons.

Holger Stolzenberg:

For the most part, high-round picks have already been established. Teams and scouts are already well aware of the top-caliber players and where they will go in the first couple of rounds. While there is always some shuffling up and down those first few rounds, most of those players have been scouted quite a bit (perhaps minus a handful of Russian prospects, but isn’t that always the case?)

It’s the later picks that are likely to be affected the most. With no playoffs coming at the junior and collegiate levels as well as overseas, many of those often-missed prospects won’t get a chance to shine at the final level and show that they should be taken earlier. Plenty of prospects establish themselves near the end of the season as they develop in their own team’s systems or get to step up and prove themselves when injuries creep up. These late-season tournaments as well as the IIHF canceling the IIHF U18 World Championships will eliminate key scouting opportunities that will have a major effect on the mid to late rounds.

Zach Leach:

Unlike the other top pro sports leagues, the NHL is unique in that all rookie contracts are more or less created equal. The entry-level system creates a narrow salary window in which each draft pick is able to negotiate his contract, while also allowing time before signing to create leverage for a greater base salary or performance bonuses within that range, as opposed to negotiating based solely on draft position.

This is all to say that the most important thing for an NHL prospect is just getting drafted, not where you are drafted. For this reason, the “late-round” prospects are absolutely the group most impacted by the Coronavirus-shortened season, as they are not locked in to be selected at all. Top prospects who can safely assume that they will be picked in the first four or five rounds have that security because there is a consensus that they are a strong NHL prospect. That consensus can only be built by multiple viewings by multiple scouts over the course of the season. A shortened season still leaves most teams with more than enough information to make a decision on those top- and middle-tier prospects. Those late-round prospects often do not have the luxury of multiple viewings by scouts. High school, prep school, Junior-A and European junior league games do not offer the same value to scouts as attending CHL, USHL, or European pro games, where there are multiple draft prospects to watch. As such, postseason play and other spring tournaments offer the best opportunities for scouts and the best chance for a late-round prospect to be seen and make an impact on a team, improving his draft odds. Many of those players will not get that opportunity this year and some lower-caliber players from bigger leagues may get the nod based on teams’ number of viewings alone.

Once a player is passed over in their first year of eligibility, earning a selection only gets tougher. So it is those fringe, late-round prospects who may have lost their chance to impress the maximum number of teams possible who will be most affected by the shortened recruiting season.

Gavin Lee:

There’s no doubt that the players at the fringe of any ranking may end up missing a chance to impress an NHL team enough to earn a selection, but I would argue that it doesn’t really change their situation all that much by going undrafted. Every year teams decide not to hand out NHL contracts to their sixth- and seventh-round picks from prior drafts, letting them become free agents or bringing them in on minor league deals instead. The situation for a seventh-round pick isn’t all that fundamentally different from one that slips by—they’re still going to have to put in a lot of hard work to prove they are worthy of an NHL contract slot.

No, I believe it is actually those first-round talents that could be affected the most, in both positive and negative manners.

Last year, just a few weeks before the draft, Peyton Krebs suffered a torn Achilles in an offseason workout. Krebs had been in line for a potential top-10 selection, ranked that high by several outlets including by TSN’s Bob McKenzie, who polls NHL scouts from around the league. Instead, after his injury, Krebs dropped to the Vegas Golden Knights at 17th. If you compare his entry-level deal to that of, say, Victor Soderstrom, who went 11th, you’ll notice that Krebs has a substantially lower number of available performance bonuses—some $750K over the three years.

For an example the other way, one can point at Mortiz Seider’s performance for Germany at the IIHF World Championship in May of 2019 as a potential reason why he ended up being the sixth player off the board in June. NHL.com correspondent Aaron Vickers wrote exactly that last year when he spoke to players like Leon Draisaitl who was so impressed with the 18-year old’s play. Seider landed more than $2.5MM in potential performance bonuses for going so high, twice as much as Krebs and certainly more than he would have at his #16 ranking in the same TSN scouting poll.

PHR Panel: Optimal Playoff Format

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We’re now two weeks into an NHL postponement and there is still no clear timeline on when professional hockey will return. While fans of the sport have received small tidbits of news over that time, including college signings and contract extensions, the thirst for discussion has rarely been quenched.

With that in mind, we’re happy to introduce a new feature: The PHR Panel. Three times a week, our writing staff will give our individual takes on a question many hockey fans have been wondering about. If you’d ever like to submit a subject for us to discuss, be sure to put it in the comments. This series will run each Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

Today, we’re tackling the thing most people want to know about–the playoffs.

Q: What is the optimal playoff format for when (if) play resumes?

Brian La Rose:

I know there is some growing optimism to expand the format to as many as 24 teams in an effort to try to artificially improve revenues by getting some larger market teams in. Sure, it’d create some extra short-term interest and create the opportunity for even more upsets than last year. But let’s face it, Chicago and Montreal have no business being in the playoff discussion and there are no guarantees fans will be allowed to attend anyway so the potential revenue boost may not wind up being as high as they’d like.

I’d rather see a 16-team format and an effort made to try to play out the balance of the regular season or as much of it as possible and have the bubble teams battle it out that way. Gary Bettman has talked about the importance of protecting the integrity of the Stanley Cup and the season as part of any discussion about what to do moving forward. That is achieved by doing this over opening the field up to as many as eight more teams and playing best-of-three series. It may not be the most optimal from a salary cap perspective for next year but that number can be negotiated over solely being fixed by HRR anyway.

Now, if they feel the need to change something, they can scrap the divisional format and go back to the older way where the top team played eighth place, second played seventh, and so on.

Holger Stolzenberg:

Generally, I often hear people complaining about the current playoff system as many wish it to return to the 1-16 format. However, I’m a big fan of the current seeding structure and would never want to change it.

However, this is a year in which we might want to make some changes to the playoffs, depending on whether the regular season is canceled or not. Obviously, if the league has time to finish out the regular season, then my vote would be to keep the playoffs the same. If the regular season is canceled, I would like to see the playoffs expanded as a one-time event. With some teams having played more games than other teams, it just doesn’t seem very fair to just take the top 16 (even if they base it on points percentage). A team like Columbus might slip out of the playoffs since they were already at 70 games. While they had won just three of their previous 10, I feel like with Seth Jones likely back on the ice for them the team could surprise someone again in the playoffs.

I would like to see some more teams get in, but the suggested 24-team playoff seems like way too many. In my estimation, 21 teams were close to challenging for a playoff spot (maybe 22 if you want to include Arizona). So, I think whether they are play-in games or something minimal, I would like to see all those teams get a chance to earn their way into the playoffs.

Zach Leach:

One format that could a) stress the importance of regular season success, especially maintaining the league’s emphasis on division battles, b) fairly include an expanded field if the regular season cannot be completed, and c) take place in a more limited amount of time would be to reward the top two teams in each division with first-round byes while implementing shorter series in the first round.

If the playoffs were to start with standings unchanged and seeding was to be based on points percentage, the first round would feature byes for Boston, Tampa Bay, Washington, Philadelphia, St. Louis, Colorado, Vegas and Edmonton. Eight “wild card” teams in each conference would battle in three-game series. In the East, it would be Pittsburgh vs. Montreal, Carolina vs. the New York Rangers, the New York Islanders vs. Florida, and Columbus vs. Toronto. In the West, it would be Dallas vs. Chicago, Nashville vs. Arizona, Vancouver vs. Minnesota, and Calgary vs. Winnipeg.

The winners of each wild card, three-game match-up would be re-seeded for the second round, which would essentially mirror the traditional first round and set up the standard playoff structure. The conference semifinals, finals, and Stanley Cup Final would proceed as they normally do. In total, a field of 24 teams would be able to take part in the postseason with no more than three extra games compared to the usual course and no chance of a top-four team in either conference being knocked off due to time-constrained, shortened series.

Gavin Lee:

Quite frankly, I’m not sure there is an optimal setup at this point. The idea that any more regular season games will actually be played this season seems more and more unlikely each passing day and without those, it is hard to maintain the integrity of the Stanley Cup playoffs, what has become known as one of the longest and most difficult grinds in all of professional sports.

Sure, including teams like Montreal and Chicago would be beneficial to hockey related revenues, but it would taint the whole process in my opinion. How would you draw the line? Do the Sabres and Devils both also make it, given they’re only three points behind Montreal with two games in hand?

If it were possible, I would actually be shrinking the field to try and maintain some integrity, instead of expanding it. Eliminating all four wild card teams and giving byes to each division leader would allow you to keep the tradition of seven-game series and reward the teams that were really the best performers of the first part of the regular season.

Now, of course, the NHL would never do something like that. Having teams sit idle is only letting money fly out the window, and they’ll want as much as possible if they want to keep next year’s projections anywhere near accurate (which they already won’t be). I imagine we’ll see some sort of a play-in tournament, but they won’t risk losing a division leader in a short series against a team that wasn’t even in the wild card spot when the season hit pause.

Stretch Run Storylines: Minnesota Wild

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  We continue our look at the Central Division with Minnesota.

It has been another disappointing season for the Wild who currently are on the outside looking in at a playoff spot.  New GM Bill Guerin has been aggressive in recent months in terms of shaking things up, moving out Jason Zucker while making a change behind the bench as well.  The effect of that coaching change is among their storylines to watch for down the stretch.

Evason’s Future

The decision to part with Bruce Boudreau last month came as a bit of a surprise even though Minnesota was struggling at the time.  It seemed like the likelier time to make a move would have been the summer but Guerin opted not to wait and installed assistant Dean Evason as the new bench boss on an interim basis for the rest of the season.

The early returns have certainly been promising as the Wild are 8-4-0 since the change and as a result, they’ve crept back into the playoff race and sit only one point outside of the final Wild Card spot in the Western Conference.  Despite the strong start under his tenure, Guerin indicated earlier this month that he wasn’t willing to remove the interim tag at this time and will make a decision on Evason’s status at the end of the season.

That makes the stretch run (and possible playoff appearance depending on the format) extremely important for the first time NHL head coach.  A good showing would certainly bolster his chances of getting the full-time gig but if they falter, Guerin could go elsewhere.  There’s a lot riding on their final few games (assuming they actually occur).

Dubnyk’s Struggles

While Devan Dubnyk’s save percentage dipped a bit in 2018-19 while his goals against average went up a couple of points, he still seemed like a safe bet to be at least an average starter this season.  That hasn’t exactly happened.

The 33-year-old has posted a save percentage of just .890 this season.  That’s his lowest one since his rookie year and the last time he had one around that territory (2013-14 at .891), three different organizations were paying him to be a platoon goalie for Montreal’s AHL affiliate.  His goals against average of 3.35 is his worst since that 2013-14 campaign.  Those are not starting-caliber numbers; those aren’t even backup level.

That’s why Alex Stalock was given a chance to run as the starter and to his credit, he made the most of it in the weeks leading up to the break in the schedule.  But he has been a backup (or third-stringer) for his entire career so asking him to keep up his level of play isn’t realistic.

Eventually, they will need Dubnyk to get back to his form from a year ago.  This is where the break should do him some good as some time away certainly can’t hurt.  If you look back at how he bounced back from his ugly 2013-14 season, he quickly rediscovered his form with Arizona which helped land him in Minnesota where he had fared well until now.  They’ll certainly be counting on a similar bounce back down the stretch.

Galchenyuk’s Future

When the Canadiens signed Alex Galchenyuk to a three-year deal three offseasons ago, it set him up to potentially be one of the most sought after forwards in unrestricted free agency.  Here was a top-three pick only a year removed from a 30-goal campaign and he’d be hitting the open market at 26 in the prime of his career.

Things haven’t gone quite as planned, however.  Galchenyuk was eventually moved to Arizona where his numbers declined.  He started this season in Pittsburgh and didn’t do much there and saw his value plummet to the point where he was effectively a salary matching throw-in as part of the Zucker trade.

Prior to the pause, Galchenyuk was actually showing some signs of improvement.  He had seven points in 14 games, a pace that was comparable to his output from a year before despite averaging a little less than 15 minutes a night.  If he is able to return and sustain that pace, he’ll at least position himself to have interest from a few teams on the open market, including potentially Minnesota.  But if he struggles down the stretch (or even if play doesn’t resume), he could go from possibly being one of the more intriguing free agents to one that will have to wait a while in the offseason to find his next team.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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