Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

Offseason Checklist: New York Rangers

June 17, 2021 at 8:59 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 21 Comments

The offseason has arrived with roughly half of the league missing the playoffs and several more having since been eliminated. It’s time to examine what those teams need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at the Rangers.

A year ago, it looked as if the rebuild for the Rangers was basically over or had at least been expedited. Artemi Panarin and Jacob Trouba were added and a strong performance down the stretch provided optimism for the future before Carolina swept them in the Qualifying Round in the bubble. Even so, there was plenty of optimism heading into the season but the results weren’t there. The result was a house cleaning with Chris Drury taking over as GM and Gerard Gallant recently being named head coach. While those are big items off their checklist, there is still some work to be done.

Round Out Coaching Staff

While they have Gallant in the fold, the coaching staff still needs some work. Goalie coach Benoit Allaire was retained and, well, that’s it for the current staff. David Oliver, Jacques Martin, and Greg Brown were also all let go when David Quinn was fired last month and will need to be replaced. Kris Knoblauch could be a candidate to join the staff on a full-time basis; the AHL Hartford bench boss filled in for six games for Quinn this season while he was in COVID-19 protocols.

Center Decisions

New York appears to be set between the pipes for the foreseeable future. They have several young blueliners in the pipeline, headlined by K’Andre Miller who had a strong rookie season. They’re well-set on the wings with Panarin plus recent high first-round picks in Alexis Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko; Chris Kreider is also signed long-term.

The pipeline isn’t anywhere near as well-stocked when it comes to the center position, however. Filip Chytil showed some progression this season but at this point, he looks more like a third-line option than a top-six piece of the future. Brett Howden was a first-rounder back in 2016 but is going to be more of a role player than a core one. Morgan Barron certainly has some upside but they’re certainly not ready to proclaim him as a top-six center of the future either. It’s an area that needs to be addressed and it’s a big one.

It’s not something that necessarily has to be addressed this year but the clock is ticking. Mika Zibanejad and Ryan Strome, their current top pivots, are both a year away from unrestricted free agency with Zibanejad looking like a candidate to land a considerable raise on his current $5.35MM AAV. Strome, meanwhile, has 108 points in 126 games over the last two seasons. While he has an earned reputation of being inconsistent, that’s still an impressive recent track record and if he has another year like that, he will also be looking at a raise on his $4.5MM price tag.

It seems likely that Drury will at least investigate the cost of signing Zibanejad to a long-term extension while Strome’s file may be left a little longer to see how next year starts out. However, if they wind up landing a top-line pivot, that player is going to be expensive. As their youngsters move past their entry-level deals, can they afford to pay Zibanejad market value to play on their second line? It’d be a great luxury to have but in this cap environment, it might be one that they can’t afford.

In the meantime, expect the Rangers to be speculatively linked to every impact center that happens to become available (such as Buffalo’s Jack Eichel). The supporting cast is in place and this is the one key piece they need to take another step forward. With their group of young roster players, they will also be in a position where they could move one or two of those in a move and still be in good shape. Of course, that’s the easy part of the equation. Finding the impact center is the much more challenging one with that task now falling to Drury.

Re-Sign Key RFAs

There are several restricted free agents that Drury will need to re-sign but two stand out among the pack for very different reasons.

The first is goaltender Igor Shesterkin. His entry-level contract has come to an end and he has quickly established himself as New York’s starter. Having said that, he has all of 47 career NHL games under his belt which is less than a single season’s worth for most number ones. That’s not a particularly large sample size and his standout KHL numbers don’t mean a whole lot in terms of impacting contract talks.

On top of that, he’s 25 and has salary arbitration eligibility. With Shesterkin only being two years away from UFA eligibility, it’s not an ideal spot for a bridge contract; while most players coming off their first contracts have four years of team control remaining, New York has half of that. Meanwhile, if early talks don’t go well, Shesterkin could simply file for arbitration, return as the starter, and then be a year away from being unrestricted next summer where he’ll have even more leverage in talks. A long-term deal is almost certainly New York’s goal but it may be tricky to come by.

The other RFA of note is Pavel Buchnevich. Over his first few years in the league, he showed some offensive flashes but struggled at times as well. However, in 2019-20, the combination of him, Zibanejad, and Kreider broke out and Buchnevich responded with a career year with 46 points in 68 games. He then did even better this season with 48 points in just 54 contests. That’s top line production which is certain to be mentioned in contract talks as the 26-year-old goes through restricted free agency with arbitration eligibility for the final time. He will undoubtedly get more than his $3.5MM qualifying offer but at the same time, are the Rangers prepared to commit to him long term or could he be deemed expendable knowing that Lafreniere and Kakko are in the wings? The contract is one thing while who gives it to him could very well be another question altogether.

Part Ways With DeAngelo

While he was dismissed from the team early in the season, New York had to carry Anthony DeAngelo on the salary cap for the rest of the season (minus the pro-rated $1.075MM in savings after he cleared waivers and was sent to the taxi squad). He has one year left on his contract, one that carries a $4.8MM AAV along with a $5.3MM salary. Drury may first try to find a taker in a trade first in a swap of expiring contracts but with how cheap his buyout would be, they shouldn’t look too closely at that option. Since DeAngelo is 25, the buyout ratio is one-third instead of two-thirds. Accordingly, the cap charge would only be $383K next season and $883K after that. DeAngelo turned down a contract termination at the trade deadline but it’s all but a lock that he’ll be released this summer when the buyout window opens up after the Stanley Cup Final.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Expansion Primer: San Jose Sharks

June 17, 2021 at 4:00 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 6 Comments

Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

Back in 2017, the San Jose Sharks ended up losing David Schlemko to the Vegas Golden Knights in the expansion process after they decided not to make any side deals with the incoming team. Vegas decided on Schlemko with the intention of a trade and quickly flipped him to the Montreal Canadiens for a fifth-round pick. The Sharks are the perfect example in favor of just letting the expansion process play out, as the Golden Knights ended up leaving other names like Brenden Dillon on the table. Schlemko played just 55 more NHL games and was out of professional hockey after the 2018-19 season.

At that point, the Sharks were a recent Stanley Cup runner-up and had been to the playoffs 13 of the previous 14 seasons. It’s a much different situation this time after two years of missing the postseason and the protection options show how thin the roster is getting.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Logan Couture, Evander Kane, Timo Meier, Tomas Hertl, Kevin Labanc, Ryan Donato, Alexander True, Rudolfs Balcers, Jayden Halbgewachs, Dylan Gambrell, Jonatan Dahlen

Defense:

Erik Karlsson (NMC), Brent Burns, Marc-Edouard Vlasic (NMC), Radim Simek, Christian Jaros, Jacob Middleton, Nicolas Meloche

Goalies:

Martin Jones, Josef Korenar

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

Marcus Sorensen, Matthew Nieto, Patrick Marleau, Kurtis Gabriel, Maxim Letunov, Greg Pateryn

Notable Exemptions

Alexander Barabanov, John Leonard, Nikolai Knyzhov, Mario Ferraro, Noah Gregor, Alexei Melnichuk, Sasha Chmelevski, Ivan Chekhovich

Key Decisions

Overall, the Sharks are facing a tough offseason. How do you retool and get the roster back to contender status when you have so much money tied up in aging players? The contracts handed out to the old core are anchors on the roster now, especially in a flat-cap world, and there are holes all over the place. With that in mind, the Sharks could potentially use the expansion draft as an opportunity, trying to bait (or entice) the Kraken into taking one of those contracts off the books.

That discussion starts (and perhaps ends) with Burns, the bearded, unique, franchise icon that has done so many incredible things for the Sharks. Burns turned 36 in March and just had his second-worst offensive season (even by points-per-game) since arriving in San Jose a decade ago. Gone are the days of the 20+ goal, point-per-game rover that took home the Norris Trophy in 2017 and yet, there are still four more years on his contract at an $8MM cap hit. It’s not that Burns is completely ineffective, but the idea of having his contract vanish has to be at least a little bit enticing for GM Doug Wilson. That’s a tough trigger to pull given how popular he is in the market, but it actually might be the most effective way to clear some space.

A move like that is only even a possibility because both Karlsson and Vlasic have no-movement clauses that force San Jose to protect them in the draft. Getting out from either one of their contracts—seven more years at $11.5MM for Karlsson and five at $7MM for Vlasic—would be ideal, but isn’t possible unless Wilson can somehow convince them to waive their clause.

If the team goes with the traditional seven forwards/three defensemen protection scheme, which is likely, that basically makes the decision either Burns or Simek for the last spot. The 28-year-old Simek signed a four-year, $9MM contract just over a year ago and looked like a stable, stay-at-home foil for Burns or Karlsson, but has quickly been passed on the depth chart by younger options. Though he dealt with some injuries this season, Simek only averaged 14:13 in ice time through 40 appearances and really doesn’t need to be protected at this point.

Upfront, things are a little more favorable. Couture, Kane, Meier, Hertl, and Labanc seem like locks for protection, even though not all of them lived up to their contracts this season. Even though Meier and Labanc only had 12 goals each, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to expose them and give up on the chance for a bounceback in 2021-22.

That leaves two protection spots available at forward and there are several options. Donato was supposed to reach another level in San Jose after being acquired for a third-round pick in October, but managed just six goals and 20 points in 50 games. He is actually a restricted free agent, so even if the team wants to leave him exposed to fill a required spot he’d need a new contract first. Balcers showed flashes potential and could likely warrant a spot, while Gambrell is at least still young enough to hopefully take a step forward offensively.

The real wildcard is Dahlen, who just signed a contract to return from Sweden after dominating the second tier there. The 23-year-old is the kind of boom-or-bust prospect that an expansion team would love to get their hands on, meaning San Jose is probably going to have to protect him. There’s no guarantee Dahlen ever works in the NHL, but his offensive skill makes him so intriguing that Seattle would have to take a swing.

In net, it seems obvious to leave Jones exposed and protect Korenar. Even though the young goaltender didn’t perform particularly well in his ten-game stint this season, Jones has been so bad for so long now that it would be a miracle to get his contract off the books. For three straight seasons, Jones has posted an .896 save percentage as the team’s starting goaltender and he has three years at $5.75MM left on his deal.

Projected Protection List

F Logan Couture
F Evander Kane
F Timo Meier
F Tomas Hertl
F Kevin Labanc
F Jonatan Dahlen
F Rudolfs Balcers

D Erik Karlsson
D Marc-Edouard Vlasic
D Brent Burns

G Josef Korenar

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined. Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined. In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (0)
Defensemen (1): Radim Simek

The Sharks actually don’t have either of their required forward spots filled if they protect those top five, but could easily fix this with new contracts for Donato and Gambrell. Even re-signing Marleau would give them one, if the all-time games played leader is serious about returning for another season. Remember though that this isn’t a perfect situation to be in, given that both Donato and Gambrell are arbitration-eligible. It’s doesn’t help leverage much when the other side knows the contract they are signing may immediately go to another team. Either one could decide to wait for the arbitration process, leaving the Sharks in a tougher spot with the expansion draft coming in just over a month.

At defense, even if the Sharks decided to leave Burns exposed instead, he fills the requirement as well.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Expansion Primer: St. Louis Blues

June 16, 2021 at 8:23 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 1 Comment

In the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft, the St. Louis Blues opted to protect expiring assets and role players like Patrik Berglund, Ryan Reaves, and Vladimir Sobotka and as a result lost top-six forward David Perron to the Vegas Golden Knights. The Blues watched as Perron enjoyed what was then the best season of his NHL career and led the Knights to the Stanley Cup Final while they missed the playoffs.

Fortunately, the team learned from their mistakes. They re-signed Perron the following season, won the Stanley Cup, and now three years later Perron is coming off the best campaign of his career. This time around he will be safe, as will most of the Blues’ top players. However, a deep, talented roster will not be able to completely avoid another impact loss in expansion.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Sam Anas, Ivan Barbashev, Sammy Blais, Kyle Clifford, Jacob de La Rose, Tanner Kaspick, Jordan Kyrou, Mackenzie MacEachern, Ryan O’Reilly, David Perron, Zach Sanford, Brayden Schenn, Nolan Stevens, Oskar Sundqvist, Vladimir Tarasenko, Robert Thomas

Defense:
Robert Bortuzzo, Vince Dunn, Justin Faulk, Niko Mikkola, Torey Krug, Colton Parayko, Steven Santini, Marco Scandella, Jake Walman

Goalies:
Jordan Binnington, Evan Fitzpatrick, Ville Husso

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

F Tyler Bozak, D Carl Gunnarsson, F Mike Hoffman, F Jaden Schwartz

Notable Exemptions

G Joel Hofer, F Dakota Joshua, F Klim Kostin, F Jake Neighbours, D Scott Perunovich

Key Decisions

In contrast to successful team-building, depth and long-term security are the enemy of the Expansion Draft. The St. Louis Blues have built a strong roster with talent throughout the lineup and most of those players are signed beyond this season. With only eight skaters or seven forwards and three defenseman who can be protected, the Blues will expose a number of valuable assets and there is little they can do about it. But they will try.

The first question for the Blues is really what protection scheme to use, which comes down to x-factor number one: Vince Dunn. Following a resurgent season, Dunn was back in the good graces of St. Louis, at least until the trade talks returned of late. As promising as the 24-year-old defenseman may be, the Blues have refrained from giving him a true top-four role and he has also failed to produce top-four numbers. He was fifth in average time on ice among St. Louis defensemen in 2020-21 and while he was third in defensive scoring, most of his production came on the power play. He was fifth in blocked shots and fifth in hits, noticeably behind Krug in both, a player that specializes in neither. While he skates well, Dunn is susceptible to turnovers and is caught out of position frequently. When determining whether or not to protect Dunn, the upside argument for is strong, but the depth argument against is stronger. Compared to Faulk and Krug, the Blues’ two best all-around defensemen this season who the club has committed extensive money and term to, and Parayko, who has a unique blend of size and skill and has been steady throughout his career, it is hard to claim that Dunn is more worthy of protection in a 7-3 scheme despite his age and potential.

With all that said, there is a way to keep Dunn in addition to the three likely locks for protection on the blue line. The Blues could instead go with the eight-skater protection scheme, in which Dunn faces a much easier battle for a protection slot with the veteran Scandella. Of course, the trade-off for the Blues in protecting Dunn is exposing three extra forwards. Depth comes in to play here as well, as the forward corps is no different than the defense in terms of too many valuable players. With top scorer and 2017 Expansion casualty Perron locked in, as well as captain and elite two-way center O’Reilly, consistent top scorer Schenn, and all-world sniper Tarasenko, Dunn’s competition for protection are other fellow young players. Would the Blues really rather keep him over breakout rookie Kyrou? Or promising 21-year-old Thomas? It seems very unlikely, even as Dunn showed improvement this year. And thus the trade rumors. St. Louis will do its best not to lose Dunn for nothing given the promise he has shown, but if they are unable to make a trade before the Expansion Draft, they will let Seattle have the option of taking him over a future top-six forward.

The scheme resolution and acceptance that Dunn would be an attractive target if left exposed doesn’t make the decisions up front any easier for the Blues though. Even with seven forwards under protection, there will still be talent available to the Kraken. This is where x-factor number two comes in: Jaden Schwartz. Perron, O’Reilly, Schenn, Tarasenko, Kyrou, and Thomas are not going anywhere. Sure, there is some debate over Perron’s age or Tarasenko’s injury concerns, but neither argument is strong enough to leave a player of their caliber exposed. So, the Blues have one spot left at forward. Currently, Schwartz is slated for unrestricted free agency. The long-time St. Louis top-sixer may be too expensive for the team to re-sign, especially as he eyes a weak free agent market, but they will try. If the Blues come to an agreement with Schwartz before the Expansion Draft, they may decide to officially sign him or protect him as a UFA. Once Seattle has a chance to speak with Schwartz, their offer could mark the end of any handshake agreement he had with the Blues, so St. Louis could want the added security.

The other possibility is that the Blues either don’t reach an agreement with Schwartz in time or simply decide that using a protection slot on a UFA is not worth it. This does not rule out a Schwartz return to St. Louis, but it does open up the conversation of who else is deserving of that final spot. Impending free agents Bozak and Hoffman are unlikely to return and will not be protected and checking forwards Clifford and MacEachern, while valued, don’t stand up against the team’s top-nine options. Barbashev, Blais, Sanford, and Sundqvist will all be in consideration and all have a decent case for protection.

Sanford was the leading scorer of the bunch this season, but each of the other three missed time, especially Sundqvist whose season was lost to a torn ACL midway through the year. On a per-game basis, it was actually Blais that led the way. Blais is also the youngest of the group and the most physical, which could give him a leg up. Then again, Blais also had the lowest time on ice per game and contributed the least on special teams. Barbashev was the only positive player of the group and the possession leader. The decision may be one of the tightest for any team at any position, especially with four valid options. As a result, it may not come down to performance at all. Sundqvist, though a great defensive forward, is coming off of a major injury and has two years left on his current contract at $2.75MM. The Kraken would be taking a risk by selecting him, which likely leaves him exposed. Barbashev and Sanford have been in the NHL for a similar amount of time and have similar career offensive numbers. However, the more important thing that they both have in common is that they are both unsigned restricted free agents. If that does not change before the Expansion Draft, it makes both players less likely to be selected – if only slightly – as Seattle must take 20 players with term of their 30 picks, meaning Barbashev or Sanford would have to be deemed worthy of one of a maximum ten slots for RFA’s and UFA’s. It also stands to reason that either one could replace the loss of the other. This leaves Blais as the unique member of the group: healthy, under contract, and not to mention coming off a season in which he showed flashes of top-six potential. He may not be the best player of the four, but he is the safest pick for protection.

Finally, in goal there is no decision at all. Binnington is the unrivaled starter and the clear protection selection. Though he has been slow to develop, Fitzpatrick finally showed this season in the AHL the potential that made him a second-round draft choice, but it isn’t enough to usurp Binnington.

Projected Protection List

F Sammy Blais
F Jordan Kyrou
F Ryan O’Reilly
F David Perron
F Brayden Schenn
F Vladimir Tarasenko
F Robert Thomas

D Justin Faulk
D Torey Krug
D Colton Parayko

G Jordan Binnington

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

Forwards (3): Kyle Clifford, Mackenzie MacEachern, Oskar Sundqvist

Defensemen (3): Robert Bortuzzo, Niko Mikkola, Marco Scandella

The Blues have the type of roster where they may want to look into a trade with Seattle for the Kraken to select a specific player in exchange for a draft pick or prospect rather than leaving so many valuable players exposed. Even with their seven best forwards, top three defensemen, and starting goalie protected, St. Louis faces the certainty of impact loss. If not traded beforehand, Dunn would be a major loss. If Sundqvist returns to full strength, he too would be a player the Blues would really miss and would be an asset to the Kraken. Either of Sanford or Barbashev could break out in a greater role in Seattle. Even prospect goalie Fitzpatrick or veteran defenseman Scandella would hurt. Would it be worth a mid-round pick just to hand-pick who was leaving ahead of time?

St. Louis has all the incentive to leave their pending UFA’s exposed in hopes that Seattle takes the bait. The team could very well be interested in all three of Schwartz, Hoffman, and Bozak, considering the former two will be top free agent scorers and the latter could help to address a need down the middle that expansion teams tend to have. However, there is such enticing value available to the Kraken elsewhere, that they too have incentive to talk to the Blues’ UFA’s but not select them, opting for a current roster player instead with the opportunity to circle back on any of Schwartz, Hoffman, or Bozak on the open market. Seattle could also take advantage of a vulnerable Blues team to add a valuable draft pick, still select a solid player, and again turn around and sign a free agent. There are many opportunities for the Kraken – far more than St. Louis would like.

Expansion Primer: Tampa Bay Lightning

June 15, 2021 at 8:59 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 11 Comments

Back in 2017, Tampa Bay made a side deal with Vegas to force them into taking defenseman Jason Garrison. The price they paid was fairly steep in Nikita Gusev plus second and fourth-round draft picks but it allowed them to retain two young blueliners in Jake Dotchin and Slater Koekkoek. With their salary cap situation, it seems quite likely that the Lightning will be making a trade with Seattle to get them to pick a specific player.

Key Decisions

There are some problems that are good to have and having too many good players is certainly one of them. Without a side deal in place, it means that Tampa Bay is going to lose a good one no matter which route they go.

Let’s look at their defense first. Hedman and Sergachev are sure-fire bets to be protected but that’s about it. McDonagh is a key cog on their back end and logged nearly 22 minutes a game during the regular season and that has gone up slightly in the playoffs. He’s a big part of the puzzle. However, he’s also 32 years old and signed through 2026 at a $6.75MM AAV. With that term and price tag, could he safely be left unprotected?

That would leave at least one opening for a younger blueliner although there are a couple of players to consider for that potential last spot in a 7/3/1 scheme. Cernak took another step forward this season, spending a lot of it inside Tampa’s top four. He’s signed on a team-friendly bridge deal for two more years at $2.95MM and making him available would be very enticing for the Kraken.

Then there’s Foote. He only made his NHL debut this season in what was a very limited role but he’s also not that far removed from being a first-round pick as he was selected 14th overall back in 2017. He’ll need waivers beginning next year so he should be a full-timer on the roster at what should be a price tag of under $1MM on a short-term contract. Given their cap situation, it would be hard to part with a cheap roster player.

That cap situation will certainly dictate their approach with their forwards as well. Kucherov and Stamkos are automatic protectees while Point and Cirelli don’t have to be protected but are safe bets to be.

Normally, finishing fourth on the team in scoring would make a player be a safe bet to be protected but that’s not the case with Gourde. The small center played at a 25-goal, 52-point pace this season which is quite good but he’s on the books for four more years at $5.167MM. That’s not a bad return on the contract but knowing that they need to free up some money, he could be left unprotected.

Palat finished second in scoring behind only Point and even that isn’t enough to make him a lock to be protected. His price tag is certainly reasonable at $5.3MM and he only has one year left so it’s not a long-term drag on Tampa Bay’s cap. But if they want to protect four defensemen, Palat could very well be squeezed out.

Killorn is another long-time Lightning veteran that could feel the squeeze. He played at a 40-plus-point pace again this season and would have gotten there had it not been for the pandemic-shortened campaign which would have been the fourth straight year of getting to that mark. At $4.45MM, he’s not overly expensive either and with only two years left, it’s certainly a manageable deal. But again, they’re facing a situation where they simply have to move money out.

Before looking into some of the other forward candidates, let’s get to the obvious veteran on this list in Johnson. Tampa Bay clearly tried to move him last fall and when they couldn’t find a taker, they put him on waivers but had no luck there either. It’s not that he’s a bad player by any stretch, he’s just too expensive for the role he provides. He’s a capable middle-six center and if he was a free agent tomorrow, there would be plenty of interest. But the 30-year-old isn’t a free agent, he has three years left at a $5MM cap hit. The expectation is that the Lightning will try to make a deal to entice Seattle to take that contract off their hands but it will have to be a sizable premium paid as there will be quality players to pick from.

Knowing they will need some cost-efficient forwards as well, there could also be an inclination to try to protect one or more of them in a 7/3/1 scheme. Barre-Boulet held his own in his first taste of NHL action this season after being a consistently high scorer in the AHL. Joseph had a dozen goals this season while primarily playing on the fourth line while Stephens was a regular for more than half of last year. Even Katchouk, who doesn’t have any NHL experience, showed a lot with AHL Syracuse this season and should be in the mix for a roster spot next year. They all have some NHL upside and are all affordable which is a combination that they need to try to hold on to. Having said that, it would be hard to see those players crack their protected list.

Projected Protection List

F Anthony Cirelli
F Nikita Kucherov (NMC)
F Brayden Point
F Steven Stamkos (NMC)

D Erik Cernak
D Callan Foote
D Victor Hedman (NMC)
D Mikhail Sergachev

G Andrei Vasilevskiy

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

Forwards (6): Yanni Gourde, Alex Killorn, Tyler Johnson, Mathieu Joseph, Pat Maroon, Ondrej Palat
Defensemen (2): Ryan McDonagh, Jan Rutta

In terms of who’s available from this list, Palat would be the most tempting choice and if they can’t find a side deal to force them to take Johnson (or another similarly-priced player), they could be at risk of losing their second-leading scorer. This was put together with the assumption that they’ll want to keep Foote, who will almost certainly play a bigger role next season, in the fold but if they are okay with losing him, they would be safer flipping to the 7/3/1 scheme with Palat, Killorn, and Gourde seeming like the safest bets to be protected. Either way, with so many talented players, they’re going to lose someone of note so expect GM Julien BriseBois to be active in trying to make a side deal control which one joins Seattle.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Dallas Stars

June 15, 2021 at 6:50 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

Just one season removed from an appearance in the Stanley Cup Final, the Stars wound up missing the playoffs altogether in 2020-21. Injuries from their run in the bubble certainly contributed to that although they also had several veterans that underachieved. Nevertheless, with Ben Bishop and Tyler Seguin returning next season, Dallas will be adding a pair of important pieces back to their lineup without needing to make many moves. However, there are still some items for GM Jim Nill to accomplish this summer.

Add Scoring Winger

With Seguin, Jamie Benn, Joe Pavelski, Roope Hintz, and Radek Faksa, Dallas is pretty well set down the middle for next season. At least one of them will have to move to the wing and while it may have seemed like it was going to be Benn, it doesn’t appear as if he will be the one doing so.

The Stars also have Alexander Radulov and Jason Robertson and on paper, it’s the makings of a pretty good offense. However, despite the collection of talented threats, they’re typically a middle of the pack team when it comes to scoring. And despite paying Benn and Seguin more than $19MM combined, they’re more of a score by committee type of team.

With Andrew Cogliano and Blake Comeau coming off the books, they have $5.65MM in money that could be put towards potentially adding another top-six piece on the wing that will score more than the nine goals those two veterans combined for this season. (Some of that will also go to their top RFA who will be covered momentarily.) That coupled with a return to health for Seguin and Radulov should be enough to push them from a team that’s a bit below average offensively to one that’s a bit above average. That should be worth a few more wins in the standings.

Re-Sign Heiskanen

Generally, a 21-year-old defenseman that averages basically half a point per game, has positive possession stats, and logs nearly 25 minutes a night would be viewed as having a great season. Yet for Miro Heiskanen, it almost felt like a bit of a letdown considering how dominant he was in the bubble. By no means was it a bad season – he played quite well – but the expectations were understandably so high that he underachieved a little bit.

It will be interesting to see if that affects Heiskanen’s contract talks as he enters restricted free agency for the first time (he does not have salary arbitration eligibility). Heading into the year, it felt like he was on a path to earn a max-term eight-year extension that bought out four UFA seasons but still gave him a shot at reaching the open market while being in the prime of his career.

That could ultimately still happen but his step back offensively poses some questions. Was his performance in the bubble an aberration? Was his dip this season a one-off or a sign of things to come? From Heiskanen’s point of view, if he believes he can get back to improving on his numbers in his first couple of seasons, he may be better off waiting a year or two and opting for a bridge deal. While it would take away some earning power when he reaches UFA eligibility, he’d certainly earn more signing a long-term deal then than he would now with this cap environment.

Meanwhile, Nill should still want to push for as long of a contract as possible. Even with him not quite living up to the very lofty expectations, he is still undoubtedly their franchise blueliner for years to come so if the opportunity presents itself to lock him up, it’s one they need to take.

If they wind up on a short-term pact instead, they’ll have a bit more flexibility to add a short-term win now piece as well but that’s basically only if they can get something done before the UFA period as it’s harder to add closer to the start of training camp. There is technically plenty of time to get a deal done between now and the start of next season but if they can get something done in the next six weeks, they’ll be better off for it.

Extension Talks For Klingberg

On top of working on Heiskanen’s file, the Stars will also be eligible to sign John Klingberg to an extension once the calendar flips to the 21-22 campaign in late July. The 28-year-old has been a fixture on their back end for the past seven years and their gamble in handing him a seven-year contract after his rookie season has panned out better than they could have hoped. Klingberg has given them plenty of production at a $4.25MM price tag which has wound up being well below market value.

He will be 30 when his next contract begins which presents Klingberg with a tough decision to make. Locking into a long-term deal now (or next summer with the cap likely still at $81.5MM) isn’t going to give him a higher AAV than if he waits. However, if he opted for a higher-priced, short-term contract extension, he’d then be too old to command a contract close to the maximum term when that deal came to an end. What’s better for him, locking in long-term and potentially leaving a bit of money on the table or bank on a cap increase over the next few years and the possibility for a slightly better payday?

In terms of cap planning, it shouldn’t be an issue for Dallas as Radulov and Pavelski ($13.25MM combined) will be coming off the books at the same time. Those veterans shouldn’t be able to command the same price tags they have now so some of the savings there will be able to go to Klingberg. With him having another year left, this isn’t something that has to get done but Nill has already indicated he’d like to work on this file this summer.

Add Defensive Upgrades

Between Heiskanen, Klingberg, and Esa Lindell, Dallas has a strong top half defensively. It falls off fairly quickly after that, however. Jamie Oleksiak is set to hit the open market this summer and after hovering around the 15 minute per game mark the previous two seasons, he logged over 20 minutes a night this year. Some of that was him stepping up but some of that was also out of necessity. Either way, he has positioned himself to earn more than the $2.1375MM he made this season so he’ll need to be brought back or replaced.

In terms of depth, Andrej Sekera is more of a sixth option at this point while Joel Hanley should be seventh or eighth on the depth chart. Sami Vatanen and Mark Pysyk don’t seem likely to return so this could be an opportunity for Nill to upgrade the third pairing. If they’re unable to bring in another top-four defender, raising the floor of that third pair will be needed, especially if they want to hedge against injuries. Thomas Harley could be in the mix at some point next year which would help but he’ll need some more time in the minors first and shouldn’t be counted on to make an immediate impact.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Philadelphia Flyers

June 13, 2021 at 7:56 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 10 Comments

After making it to the second round last season, expectations were fairly high for the Flyers heading into this season. However, while they started strong with seven wins in their first ten games, their goaltending struggled mightily as the campaign progressed and Philadelphia wound up in sixth in the East Division as a result. GM Chuck Fletcher opted to keep the coaching staff intact but will be tasked with finding a player or two to help vault them back into playoff contention. Here’s what will be on their offseason checklist.

Re-Sign Sanheim

Philadelphia’s list of pending restricted free agents isn’t particularly long but one of their notables is defenseman Travis Sanheim. Following a breakout 2018-19 season, he wound up signing a bridge contract that would ideally set him up for a more lucrative one at this point in time while giving the Flyers some more certainty about what type of role he’d be able to fill.

That hasn’t exactly happened, however. His production dipped sharply this season as he managed just three goals and a dozen assists in 55 games. Instead of his numbers trending towards being worthy of top-pairing minutes, they went the other way. While his possession numbers were still strong, he, like pretty much everyone else on their back end, had some adventures in his own end as well. That’s not an ideal platform season by any stretch.

Sanheim is going to be a part of their long-term core but will he be a key player or fill more of a supporting role? It’s hard to see that question being definitively answered now so instead of a long-term contract that buys out some UFA years, both sides may be better off with a one-year pact that keeps him RFA-eligible but gives them more time to see where he fits in. That type of contract would come in slightly higher than his $3.25MM qualifying offer.

Giroux Extension Talks

Claude Giroux has been a fixture in Philadelphia’s lineup for the past 13 seasons and should move into second in all-time franchise scoring (behind Bobby Clarke) at some point next season. Along the way, the captain has been shifted between center and the wing on multiple occasions and has adapted well. While he’s not the 102-point scorer he was just a few years ago, the 33-year-old is still a fixture in their top six and has provided a good return on his eight-year, $66.2MM contract that he signed back in July of 2013.

That deal is now a year away from expiring which means that Giroux will be eligible to sign an extension once the new league calendar starts on July 28th. It’s hard to see Giroux wanting to go elsewhere at this point but it’s also hard to see him commanding a contract that’s particularly close to his current $8.275MM AAV. His per-game averages the past two years are the lowest they’ve been in a decade and considering he’ll be 34 when his next contract kicks in, that’s unlikely to tick up. Giroux may very well want to make this his last contract, especially since it’s his last chance at signing without the 35-plus classification that some teams try to avoid.

If an extension can be worked out this summer, it will take away any distraction of Giroux playing in his contract year and give Fletcher some certainty about what type of cap room he’ll have in the future. It’s not something that has to get done but it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Flyers try to work something out with their franchise fixture.

Rebuild And Re-Sign The Goalie Tandem

There were three different goalies that played for the Flyers this season. None of them played particularly well and none of them are under contract for 2021-22.

Of the three, it’s safe to suggest that Carter Hart will still be around. After a good showing in his rookie year in 2018-19, he followed it up with an even better performance last season which helped lead to the higher expectations heading into 2020-21. He even did well start this season but once the calendar flipped to March, he struggled mightily, posting a save percentage of just .852 in 15 games from then until the end of the season. As a result, he goes from being someone that looked to be a safe bet for a long-term contract that bought out some UFA years to someone that will wind up on a bridge deal to see if this year was just a blip or a sign of things to come.

It also presents a challenge for Fletcher in terms of who to partner up with Hart. Brian Elliott has been with the Flyers for the past four seasons and outplayed Hart this year. If all would have gone well, Hart would have done well, earned a long-term contract, and potentially allowed for Elliott to be retained. But now, they may need someone that can legitimately push for playing time. At 36, that’s unlikely to be Elliott and instead of spending $1.5MM for the backup spot, that amount may need to be doubled as they shop at the higher end of the UFA market. (Alex Lyon was the other goalie to play this season and is set to become an unrestricted free agent as well. He could be brought back or replaced with another veteran third-stringer.)

Upgrade The Back End

Let’s go back to Philadelphia’s defensive group. Their core – Ivan Provorov, Sanheim, Philippe Myers, and Shayne Gostisbehere – all struggled relative to expectations with Gostisbehere clearing waivers at the trade deadline. It’s still a fairly young collection of rearguards as Gostisbehere being the only one older than 25. But it’s also a group that could use a veteran as they never really properly replaced Matt Niskanen who surprisingly retired last fall; the Erik Gustafsson signing did not work out well at all and didn’t provide the defensive stability that Niskanen did.

A better blueline leads to fewer scoring chances and fewer goals which is less stress for Hart as he looks to rebound next season. Finding someone who is stable in the defensive zone and can play in their top four would certainly give their defense corps a significant lift. Affording such a move could be tricky with roughly $12MM in cap room with Sanheim plus a goalie tandem needing contracts so Fletcher will have to find a way to free up some space before trying to fill this need.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Expansion Primer: Vancouver Canucks

June 13, 2021 at 3:47 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 3 Comments

When the Vegas Golden Knights entered the NHL in 2017, it was unclear who might become the expansion team’s biggest rival. Las Vegas was located close to a number of Pacific Division foes, but with deep-seated rivalries already in place in Southern California, it was unclear if there would be room for the Knight. The Seattle Kraken don’t have that problem. The Vancouver Canucks, located on the same body of water less than 150 miles north, will be immediate geographical rivals of the NHL’s newest team. While Seattle may not be as competitive right off the bat as Vegas – opposing teams learned their lesson in the last Expansion Draft – an attainable goal for the club in their inaugural season could be to get the best of the rival Canucks in the season series and the division standings. The rivalry could get off to a hot start if the Kraken can steal a player of value out of Vancouver in next month’s draft.

The problem? Just as they did in the last Expansion Draft, in which they lost stay-at-home defenseman Luca Sbisa, the Canucks have again set themselves up well to protect their key players from exposure. Seattle will have a number of options, but it is hard to picture any of them swaying the tide in the new rivalry.