Free Agent Profile: Ryan Donato
Early in his career, it looked like Ryan Donato was going to be a player who could be a capable secondary scorer for Boston. However, his production has stagnated which has resulted in a couple of trades already with San Jose opting to non-tender him over issuing a $2.15MM qualifying offer earlier this summer, sending him to the open market.
While every player still unsigned has their flaws, it is a little surprising that Donato old remains unsigned. His 20 points are the most of any remaining UFA that doesn’t already have ties to the Islanders as they look to see how long they can go without officially announcing any signings and at 25, he’s the youngest regular NHL player on the open market.
Last season was a tough one for Donato. Joining the Sharks seemed like a good fit for him as he’d have a chance to play a bit of a bigger role than he did with Minnesota. That did indeed happen but the playing time only increased marginally as he still found himself on the fourth line at times. The end result was just six goals which is likely why they opted to try someone else in his spot instead.
Still, while there aren’t many players with upside still unsigned, there’s a case to be made that Donato is one of them. He has reached at least 20 points in his three full professional seasons and is only a year removed from a 14-goal campaign with the Wild. It’s a limited track record for sure but there’s definitely a case for someone to bring him in.
Stats
2020-21: 50 GP, 6-14-20, -10 rating, 10 PIMS, 104 shots, 47.6 CF%, 12:37 ATOI
Career: 180 GP, 35-42-77, -18 rating, 30 PIMS, 362 shots, 50.9 CF%, 12:24 ATOI
Potential Suitors
Unlike some veteran players who are better fits on playoff-bound teams, no such restriction exists for Donato. He could serve as a depth piece for those teams or catch on with a weaker team that has a chance to give him a bigger role and allow him to restore some value. Donato is still controllable through 2023 which puts him in a spot like Andreas Athanasiou and Anthony Duclair were a year ago, non-tenders that had another year of control remaining; both of them eventually signed a second deal with their teams.
In the East, a team like Buffalo or Detroit that is still rebuilding could be a fit in terms of hoping that he pans out into a potentially longer-term fit. Among teams with playoff aspirations, Toronto could use him similar to what they wanted to do with Jimmy Vesey and Alex Galchenyuk last season as an offensive piece that they hope to get a bit of surplus value out of for a cost that’s close to the minimum.
Out West, Anaheim and Nashville are teams that haven’t exactly bolstered their offenses and while Donato isn’t going to make a big difference, any small upgrade would be helpful while both teams could benefit if he does well enough to earn a qualifying offer next summer. Seattle’s forward group could use a bit more offensive upside in their bottom six while Edmonton could use Donato as a low-cost replacement for Dominik Kahun, a player who was brought in to try and improve their offensive depth last fall.
Projected Contract
Donato’s non-tender came after the voting for our Top 50 UFA list although he may very well have made it on there had his release come earlier. It’s hard to see any viable multi-year offers coming his way so a one-year contract is likely all he’ll wind up with. Something around the $1MM mark would make him fit on the cap for many teams although if he wants to land with a contender, Donato may have to take a little less than that even. While there are questions regarding many of the remaining free agents as to whether or not they’ll make it on a roster for next season, that shouldn’t be the case with Donato. His stock has certainly dropped but it’s only a matter of time before someone takes a chance on Donato.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Free Agent Profile: Eric Staal
Less than a year ago, Eric Staal was coming off another season of being Minnesota’s number one center with Buffalo moving to acquire him in the hopes of boosting their second line. That didn’t happen and the veteran’s value took a steep hit as a result when it came time for the Sabres to trade him. Considering he remains unsigned, Staal’s value appears to have taken another hit now.
Things did not go well at all for the 36-year-old with Buffalo although, to be fair, that can be said for basically everyone last season. He struggled to produce at a top-nine level let alone the top-line one he had been at with the Wild. The hope was a trade to a playoff team in Montreal might revitalize him but outside of an early overtime winner, there’s a case to be made that he was even worse with the Canadiens than he was with the Sabres.
What might help Staal’s case was his playoff performance. He centered their fourth line throughout the postseason and was a bit more impactful on a line that primarily slowed the play to a crawl and focused on cycling and board battles. He was able to keep up despite playing through an injury and contributed a bit more on the scoresheet as Montreal surprisingly advanced to the Stanley Cup Final.
At this point, the question is whether or not teams think last season was a one-off in declining production (perhaps in part due to injury) or a sign of things to come. The former means he can still contribute while the latter is someone that may have a hard time staying in the lineup.
Stats
2020-21: 53 GP, 5-8-13, -30 rating, 10 PIMS, 82 shots, 50.8 CF%, 14:43 ATOI
Career: 1,293 GP, 441-593-1,034, -78 rating, 828 PIMS, 3,935 shots, 52.4 CF%, 19:23 ATOI
Potential Suitors
Similar to Derick Brassard, Staal’s suitors are likely to be teams looking to add veteran depth knowing they have some unproven options or ones that would like a prospect to spend more time in the minors and would use Staal as a filler in the short term.
The Staal brothers have spoken in the past about a desire to play together but that doesn’t appear to be a viable option. Detroit has already added Pius Suter and Mitchell Stephens this summer and has Joseph Veleno pushing for a spot; the recent buyout of Frans Nielsen doesn’t really create an opening for Staal either. Meanwhile, Carolina brought in Derek Stepan to supplement their top three centers and don’t really have a spot for Staal.
Among the teams looking for depth, his old team in Minnesota makes some sense on paper based on the current composition of their roster. But GM Bill Guerin saw fit to trade him 11 months ago for a winger who was coming off a tough year at a time where they needed centers so that may not be a realistic fit. Montreal GM Marc Bergevin didn’t close the door on re-signing Staal earlier this summer and their projected top three centers have limited NHL experience. Vegas has added some younger centers to push for playing time but if Staal was willing to sign for the minimum, he could be an insurance policy. The same goes for Winnipeg who is quite capped out but lost a lot of veteran depth this summer.
As for the teams that could want Staal as a short-term stopgap to allow someone to develop, the usual teams come to mind. Columbus doesn’t have much proven depth down the middle while Ottawa has had Chris Tierney available for a while and could use Staal as a replacement.
Projected Contract
Staal narrowly made it onto our Top 50 UFA list, ranking 48th with a projected one-year, $2MM contract. That may be a bit optimistic at this point with many teams basically having their rosters finalized or close to it. Something closer to half of that may be more palatable at this point although it’s worth noting that Staal is eligible for performance incentives that could be tacked onto a lower base salary to give the signing team a little more salary cap flexibility next season. Either way, it’ll be a steep drop from the $3.25MM AAV he had for the past two years.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Free Agent Profile: Derick Brassard
For the third straight year, veteran center Derick Brassard finds himself still looking for a contract well after the free agent market opened up. Not much has changed for him over that stretch and he remains a depth offensive option for teams to consider in the coming weeks.
Last season, the 33-year-old caught on with the Coyotes just as training camps were on the horizon, inking a one-year, $1MM contract. Brassard spent the majority of the campaign in a middle-six role, mostly on the third line but moving up to the second when needed. It’s basically the role he has held for the past few years and the results were pretty much the same.
Brassard’s per game output dipped a bit compared to his 2019-20 showing but still managed to pick up 20 points, putting him in a tie for the player with the most points still standing on the free agent market (Kyle Palmieri had more but is believed to have an agreement with the Islanders). He has even chipped in on the power play (seven goals over the last two years) and has won nearly 54% of his faceoffs over that stretch.
So why is he once again looking for a contract? Brassard’s defensive zone play has never been a strong point and while that was okay earlier in his career when he was putting up 40 or more points, teams aren’t as willing to give him playing time with him producing less. His own-zone performance isn’t going to suddenly improve so these year-to-year deals are likely what it’s going to continue to be for Brassard.
Stats
2020-21: 53 GP, 8-12-20, -10 rating, 12 PIMS, 67 shots, 50.0 CF%, 14:48 ATOI
Career: 905 GP, 194-309-503, -35 rating, 419 PIMS, 1,781 shots, 50.2 CF%, 16:05 ATOI
Potential Suitors
There are a couple of possible types of suitors for Brassard at this stage. The first is a team that is looking for a bit more depth down the middle and doesn’t want to pay up for someone like Tyler Bozak. The other is a team with some young centers that wants either an insurance policy or to bring him in to allow one of those pivots to spend more time in the minors.
In the first group, Seattle is down their top center for the first few months with Yanni Gourde out following shoulder surgery and while they signed Marcus Johansson who can fill in down the middle, Brassard, a natural center, could be a better fit. Montreal lost Phillip Danault with the only replacement down the middle being Cedric Paquette who spent most of last season as a winger. With an inexperienced group at center, Brassard could replace someone like Eric Staal who was acquired midseason from Buffalo. Minnesota still doesn’t have a particularly strong group at center, particularly when it comes to offensive upside and Brassard would give them another option without breaking the bank for the eventual Kirill Kaprizov contract.
The second group features teams that aren’t likely to make the playoffs. Columbus, where his career started after they made him the sixth-overall pick 15 years ago, is firmly in a rebuild and are banking on some unproven players making the jump. Brassard would be an insurance policy and with Max Domi out to start the year, he could have a lineup spot at the start. Anaheim has forced some of their younger players in when they haven’t been ready which hasn’t worked particularly from a development standpoint. Brassard’s presence could allow someone to spend more time with AHL San Diego. As for Ottawa, they’re believed to be sniffing around for a veteran forward and with Chris Tierney being in trade speculation dating back to last season and entering the final year of his deal, Brassard would be a low-cost option to carry in case they wind up moving Tierney at some point.
Projected Contract
Brassard has made our Top 50 UFA list in the past but didn’t this time around. He made $1MM last season and $1.2MM the year before. Another small dip at this stage is likely and a one-year deal for the veteran should check in somewhere around $900K. At a price tag that could be buried entirely in the minors, he’ll be a low-risk pickup for whoever winds up signing him in the coming weeks.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Free Agent Profile: Nikita Gusev
A few years ago, Nikita Gusev’s stock was at an all-time high. After his third straight dominant season in the KHL, Vegas (who acquired his rights from Tampa Bay in an expansion-related trade) was finally able to bring him over to North America by burning the only year of his entry-level deal without him playing a single game. Months later, they realized they wouldn’t be able to afford him and flipped him to New Jersey for second and third-round selections.
The Devils promptly handed him a two-year, $9MM contract, a sizable commitment for someone who had never played in the NHL before. Still, it seemed like a reasonable move as they had openings in their top six so he’d have a chance to be an impact player right away. His first season was pretty good with 44 points in 66 games and while there were some bumps along the way, that’s legitimate second-line production.
Things didn’t go as well last season, however. Gusev’s role lessened to the point where he was scratched at times and after he cleared waivers and no trade partner materialized, he accepted a contract termination and signed for less money with Florida to get an opportunity down the stretch. He did well with that, notching five points in 11 games but in the playoffs, he was scratched once again.
At 29, Gusev is certainly still young enough to play in the NHL for several more years and his first season with New Jersey showed that he has the ability to produce in the NHL. That makes him an intriguing option among those still looking for a place to play in 2021-22.
Stats
2020-21: 31 GP, 4-6-10, -12 rating, 2 PIMS, 72 shots, 57.9 CF%, 14:21 ATOI
Career: 97 GP, 17-37-54, -27 rating, 14 PIMS, 230 shots, 51.5 CF%, 14:35 ATOI
Potential Suitors
Gusev could go a few different ways here, changing the potentially interested teams in the process. If he’s looking to maximize money, the options will be limited. But if he’s open to a one-year deal around the $1MM mark (similar to what he did with Florida), he becomes a low-risk option for some cap-strapped teams that are looking to make an incremental gain offensively.
In the first scenario, Buffalo makes some sense as a fit. There would be an opportunity for Gusev to play an important role, potentially in their top six where he’d have a chance to put up a level of production closer to his first season. Detroit could use him although he’d be a little lower on the depth chart; the same could be said for Nashville who could certainly benefit from an influx of offense as could San Jose. In each of these scenarios, a one-year deal would also create the possibility of trying to move him at the trade deadline. It didn’t work for New Jersey last season but with a better showing and a cheaper contract, the odds of a trade happening would be better by the 2022 deadline.
If he’s willing to sign a cheaper contract, Colorado stands out as an appealing option. The Avs are typically a high-scoring team and Gusev would add some firepower to a forward group that lost Brandon Saad (free agency) and Joonas Donskoi (expansion) this summer. Philadelphia has a shot at deploying four lines with decent offensive upside and someone like Gusev would further push them in that direction.
Projected Contract
Gusev ranked 41st on our Top 50 UFA list with a projected one-year, $2MM contract. That type of contract could be on the table closer to training camp if he wants to sign with a rebuilding team but if he wants to play on a playoff-bound team, he may need to come in closer to half of that. At that price tag, he could wind up being quite a bargain.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
PHR Mailbag: Devils, Kraken, Bruins Centers, Standings, Kuznetsov, Predictions, Chinakhov
Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag including New Jersey’s summer movement, Seattle’s possible opening night lineup, Boston’s center situation, picking playoff teams, Evgeny Kuznetsov’s future with Washington, player predictions, and inserting the most surprising pick from the 2020 draft into the 2021 draft. If your question doesn’t appear here, check back for it in last weekend’s mailbag.
SpeakOfTheDevil: Did the Devils do enough this offseason to actually end this rebuild? Do you see them doing anything else this offseason?
Just so it’s mentioned, not long after this question was asked, New Jersey went out and added Tomas Tatar which is another notable move. More on him shortly.
What’s the definition of ending the rebuild? If it’s making the playoffs, the answer is no. For me, this is the summer that starts the end of the rebuild. Dougie Hamilton instantly gives them the high-impact defenseman they’ve lacked for a long time. That’s a long-term building block in place that isn’t under the age of 23. Ryan Graves is an effective blueliner that’s young enough to be part of the long-term core if things go well. Tatar is a great fit for them; he’ll provide some veteran insulation for one of Jack Hughes or Nico Hischier and should raise the floor of that line. His defensive skills are also understated given how effective of a two-way line he was on with Montreal. He isn’t a long-term piece but he should elevate one of those two pivots which helps to end the rebuild. Jonathan Bernier is a good fit to be the veteran mentor for Mackenzie Blackwood in the role that Corey Crawford was supposed to fill last year. They won’t have elite goaltending but there shouldn’t be many off nights either.
I think they’re pretty much done this summer. They still want to keep plenty of lineup spots for their younger players to give them more time to develop, another sign that the rebuild isn’t done just yet. Once they can determine which ones will be part of the core and which are expendable, then it’ll be time for another round of veteran additions to further raise the floor. That will be the signal that the intention will shift from the future to the present.
YzerPlan19: What does the Kraken opening night roster look like? Do they make any surprise additions before then? Who is the next William Karlsson breakout candidate?
I wouldn’t be surprised if there isn’t another move or two by the start of the season but I’m thinking more in terms of moving a surplus defenseman and maybe taking on an expensive expiring contract but it wouldn’t be a player that would have a big role. So with the roster as it currently stands, my attempt at an opening night lineup:
Jaden Schwartz – Alexander Wennberg – Jordan Eberle
Marcus Johansson – Jared McCann – Joonas Donskoi
Brandon Tanev – Calle Jarnkrok – Mason Appleton
Colin Blackwell – Morgan Geekie – Nathan Bastian
Yanni Gourde won’t be ready to start the year after recent shoulder surgery which creates a hole down the middle. It has been a few years since Jarnkrok played regularly down the middle but I like him on that ‘checking’ line more than someone like Johansson (who struggles at center) or Geekie (not yet ready for that role). I also expect Matthew Beniers to play in college next season.
Mark Giordano – Adam Larsson
Vince Dunn – Jamie Oleksiak
Carson Soucy – Jeremy Lauzon
Philipp Grubauer
Chris Driedger
In terms of a breakout candidate, McCann feels like the only one that fits. He has shown flashes of living up to his offensive upside in the past but a bigger and more consistent role could be the key to him showing that skill level more consistently.
sovietcanuckistanian: Not 100% surprised by Krejci uprooting for his home, but it does sting. My query is; as much as I’d love to see an internal candidate pick up his mantle or one of the signings made by the front office pan out in that regard… I’m not going to hold my breath. What/who are realistic options to now plug a rather large hole in the lineup? In the event of a trade, besides DeBrusk going the other way, who would also be prime pickings to be dealt – should a decent trade option present itself?
VonBrewski: Sweeney’s comments of “2nd line center by committee” are absolutely shocking to me. He let Krejci paint him into a corner. I appreciate what Krejci did for the club but doesn’t it seem that with Krejci’s timing and Sweeney not having a backup plan that they both screwed the Bruins? Sweeney does not impress me as a GM at all.
Let’s combine the Krejci questions together.
I hate to be the bearer of bad news here but I don’t see much in the way of viable options for a top-six center to take David Krejci’s position on the roster. There weren’t many in free agency and in terms of ones they can afford on the cap (in other words, not Jack Eichel or Evgeny Kuznetsov), pickings are pretty slim. They’ve been speculatively linked to Arizona’s Christian Dvorak which certainly makes sense. I just don’t think they have the pieces to make it work for the Coyotes. With the 25-year-old carrying a $4.45MM AAV for four more years, the asking price is going to be high. Speculatively, I’d expect something in the equivalent of two first-rounders – one pick and one prospect worth that. They’d want more than that to take on Jake DeBrusk coming off the year he had and his salary too. I think someone like Fabian Lysell would be a prospect that would fit one hole but with Boston being a team that’s expected to contend for a top-three seed, their projected 2022 first-rounder may be worse than what other teams are offering. Dvorak would be a great fit but I’m not sure a trade lines up. If Calgary winds up adding a center via trade, someone like Sean Monahan would make some sense as well although matching money would be a bit tougher.
Beyond that, I’m going to take Sweeney at his word and say it will be filled internally by committee. Charlie Coyle is going to get the first chance and is the logical choice. I think Nick Foligno will be an option at some point; he played down the middle frequently with Columbus when there were injuries. I really liked the Erik Haula signing; he works well as a third center but at times, he has played well enough to be in the top six. I’m not saying it won’t be an issue but as far as internal options go, they’re not particularly bad.
That’s not absolving GM Don Sweeney entirely, however. This is something that they haven’t really planned for well over the past few years other than the Coyle acquisition since he had played down the middle with Minnesota at times. But it’s not all his fault either. When you’re picking at the back of the first round (or not at all in the first round having traded picks for win-now help), this is what happens. There’s a reason that impact centers – even second-liners – are hard to come by. Alexander Wennberg just got $4.5MM per season less than a calendar year after Columbus bought him out. At best, he’s a second-liner. Impact centers are the hardest piece to acquire and for a long time, Boston had two of them. Yes, Sweeney failed in terms of not having a proven backup plan but that’s hardly a problem unique to the Bruins; many teams are or have been in the same situation.
As for Krejci, he earned the right to make the decision when he did and it sounds like he had at least informed Boston that he was leaning in that direction. I don’t think there’s much blame for him in this. And Sweeney certainly hasn’t closed the door on him returning at some point either although that’s easier said than done in terms of making it work on the salary cap.
mikedickinson: Major wave of free agency done… Give me your top eight in the East and top eight in the West after the additions and subtractions of players.
Subject to change as I don’t think all of the notable moves on the trade front are all done just yet, here’s a quick guess at the playoff teams as things stand (in no particular order).
Atlantic: Tampa Bay, Boston, Florida
Metropolitan: Carolina, Washington, NY Islanders
East Wild Cards: Toronto, Philadelphia
Central: Colorado, Winnipeg, St. Louis
Pacific: Vegas, Edmonton, Vancouver
West Wild Cards: Dallas, Chicago
2012orioles: Capitals have taken back the idea of trading Kuznetsov. Is this just a tactic to get a better return? Or will he truly be a Capital opening night?
I don’t think it’s a tactic. As much as there is some negativity surrounding Evgeny Kuznetsov, he’s still a legitimate top-six center and when he’s on, he’s still a top-liner. They can’t afford to give away that type of talent at a steep discount with an aging Nicklas Backstrom and Lars Eller (who is much better on the third line than the second) in the wings; Connor McMichael isn’t ready yet.
On the flip side, other teams aren’t going to want to pay top dollar with how last year went, especially with a $7.8MM price tag for four more years which looks like above-market value at this point. There’s definitely a market for Kuznetsov but it’s more a swap of big contracts in the hopes that the change of scenery gets them going. Is that the type of deal that they should really be doing? I don’t think so.
They’ve found a way to get cap compliant for next season so they’re not in a spot where they have to move him. If they don’t get fair value, they can simply hold on to him. I don’t think he’d fetch fair value in a trade so I don’t think this is a tactic by any stretch. I expect Kuznetsov will be in a Washington uniform for their opener.
Free Agent Profile: Erik Gustafsson
Can you remember the 60-point season that Erik Gustafsson had just a few years ago? It seems like a decade has passed since that 2018-19 campaign, when he scored 17 goals and 60 points for the Chicago Blackhawks, trailing only Brent Burns, Mark Giordano, Morgan Rielly, John Carlsson, and Keith Yandle in scoring among NHL defensemen. One would think the 29-year-old could call up any GM in the league and iron out a contract with that kind of upside, but now he sits on the open market without a deal two weeks into free agency.
It’s what Gustafsson has done in the interim that has people worried. He returned to Chicago the next season and had 26 points in 59 games, but was so suspect defensively that he generated just a third-round pick at the deadline for the Blackhawks. His play down the stretch and in the bubble with the Calgary Flames was good enough to land him a $3MM salary for 2020-21 with the Philadelphia Flyers, but still inconsistent enough to limit the term to just one year. Once again he was moved at the deadline, only this time it was for a seventh-round pick from the Montreal Canadiens, directly showing how much his lustre had faded.
Still, you can’t just ignore the fact that Gustafsson has the 25th most points from a defenseman over the last three seasons. He averaged nearly 21 minutes a night over that stretch, and played in 16 of Montreal’s playoff games during their recent Stanley Cup run. There’s still NHL value in the offensive defenseman, even if his deployment has to be carefully determined.
Stats
2020-21: 29 GP, 1-11-12, -1 rating, 0 PIM, 33 shots, 57.2 CF%, 16:43 ATOI
Career: 250 GP, 29-102-131, -4 rating, 71 PIM, 425 shots, 55.6 CF%, 19:35 ATOI
Potential Suitors
The question really is–like with any player left in free agency–whether or not Gustafsson is willing to play for a contract near the league minimum. There are contenders who could use a depth option like him to drive play in certain situations, as long as he’s willing to come aboard cheaply. The Vegas Golden Knights, for instance, still likely need to add a defenseman after trading away Nick Holden, but don’t really have any cap space to work with. The Toronto Maple Leafs also don’t have a very long depth chart on defense, even after adding players like Alex Biega and Carl Dahlstrom. Toronto’s powerplay struggled immensely last season, so perhaps a player like Gustafsson could be used in a part-time role until they trust Rasmus Sandin in that spot.
If he wants to maximize his earning potential though, Gustafsson may be better off pursuing an opportunity on a rebuilding club. The Buffalo Sabres have a motley crew of defensemen heading into the season, with none outside of Rasmus Dahlin really demanding offensive deployment now that Rasmus Ristolainen is gone. Even the Arizona Coyotes, despite bringing in Shayne Gostisbehere, Conor Timmins and Anton Stralman could potentially use another NHL defenseman. The Coyotes have Victor Soderstrom waiting for his chance, but is bringing him up right now the best move for his development?
The issue now is how many teams have already filled out their depth charts. There’s just literally no room on some rosters for the veteran defenseman, meaning it could potentially be a long wait for him this summer.
Projected Contract
Gustafsson actually ranked 44th on our Top 50 UFA list, but even there we projected a one-year, $1MM contract. Even reaching that number may be a challenge at this point in free agency, with teams already cap committed with so many other options. That 60-point season is a distant memory at this point, meaning a deal near the league minimum or even–shockingly–a professional tryout may be in store. The thing is, that actually may be a huge bargain for whoever gets him, as there is still a way to squeeze real value out of what he does well.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Free Agent Profile: Alex Chiasson
Two years ago, Alex Chiasson entered free agency in an ideal situation. He was coming off his first season with Edmonton and had a career year which gave him considerably more leverage than he had the year before when he hit the open market. That landed him a two-year deal to stay with the Oilers but things haven’t gone as well since then so the veteran has hit free agency in a different situation than he had last time.
After his first season with the Oilers, it looked as if the 30-year-old was finally living up to the potential he had shown in flashes in his previous stops. 22 goals in 73 games is certainly decent for someone who had largely been a role player up to that point but unfortunately for him and the Oilers, Chiasson was only able to manage 20 goals over the last two seasons combined, spanning 110 contests.
Still, Chiasson stands 6’3 and has shown a bit of a scoring touch with the man advantage, tallying 19 goals over his three seasons with Edmonton. While he certainly wasn’t a play driver on their power play, he still filled a useful role on it. Between the size and power play ability, he’s an intriguing depth option for teams even if he doesn’t fill the prototypical style that many teams covet in their bottom six (physical with an ability to kill penalties).
Stats
2020-21: 45 GP, 9-7-16, -10 rating, 33 PIMS, 65 shots, 45.6 CF%, 12:29 ATOI
Career: 564 GP, 101-101-202, -40 rating, 329 PIMS, 798 shots, 48.1 CF%, 13:51 ATOI
Potential Suitors
How much Chiasson wants will largely dictate his market. If he’s willing to back to playing for close to the league minimum, he becomes an intriguing pickup for some cap-strapped teams that are looking for an incremental boost. Otherwise, his options will be limited to teams that project to have ample cap space that could also be open to taking a flyer on him rediscovering that scoring touch from two years ago. For this exercise, we’ll look at the teams with cap space and assume that a cheap deal isn’t on the table just yet.
In the East, the Devils have been quite active already this summer but someone like Chiasson would add some more offensive upside to their depth forwards and they still have plenty of cap space to bring him in. The Blue Jackets don’t have a lot of firepower in their bottom six and also have ample cap room for the winger. One of his former teams in the Senators could have a use for Chiasson if they want a younger forward to get some more development time with AHL Belleville as well.
Out West, the Wild should still have enough cap room by the time they re-sign their two big RFAs to add Chiasson in a depth role. The Predators are currently projected to have some inexperienced players in their bottom six and could use Chiasson as a piece to allow someone to spend more time in the minors. The Avalanche didn’t really replace Joonas Donskoi and while Chiasson is at a lower level than he is, he’s someone that can move up into the top six at times if needed and Colorado still has a bit of wiggle room with their cap.
Projected Contract
Chiasson ranked 47th on our Top 50 UFA list with a projected two-year, $3.2MM contract. At this point, landing that contract seems unlikely as at this point of free agency, teams are bargain shopping and won’t be swayed by that 22-goal campaign. A one-year pact that’s closer to $1MM may be more realistic now and considering his power play production with Edmonton, he could be an interesting pickup for several teams at that price point.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Arbitration Breakdown: Jakub Vrana
While most of the players who had early arbitration dates have settled in recent days, that hasn’t been the case yet for the Red Wings and Jakub Vrana. They have until the start of the hearing on Wednesday to reach an agreement; once the hearing starts, they will have to go through the process and wait for the award.
Filings
Team: $3.65MM
Player: $5.7MM
Midpoint: $4.675MM
(via Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman)
The Numbers
It was a tale of two seasons for Vrana. He spent the majority of the year with Washington and while his numbers weren’t underwhelming with them, he did take a step back from his career-best 52 points in 2019-20. But his fortunes changed upon being traded to Detroit. The 25-year-old took off, notching eight goals and three assists in 11 games and in the process, brought his per-game averages close to what they were the year before. Overall, the platform year was decent.
Of course, 11 games is a particularly small sample size which adds a wrinkle to these talks. Vrana logged considerably more minutes with the Red Wings than he ever had a chance to with the Capitals but it’s hard to make any substantive conclusions based on his performance over the span of a few weeks when they were playing out the stretch.
Vrana’s track record isn’t the deepest either as only his last three seasons have yielded above-average production and two of those came in shortened years. While that shouldn’t hurt him much in a hearing, it’s worth noting that over his five-year career, he has played in fewer than 300 regular season contests which is a bit on the low side for a fifth-year player in the top six.
2020-21 Stats: 50 GP, 19-17-36, +10 rating, 10 PIMS, 100 shots, 15:00 ATOI
Career Stats: 295 GP, 84-84-168, +37 rating, 69 PIMS, 613 shots, 13:49 ATOI
Potential Comparables
Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used. The contracts below fit within those parameters. Player salaries (or current-year equivalents) also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides. Career stats listed are as of the time of signing.
Oliver Bjorkstrand (Blue Jackets) – Similar to Vrana, Bjorkstrand signed his contract after three seasons of top-six performance with a limited track record before that. The situation is a little different in that Bjorkstrand’s platform year was by far his best. That likely sets this one at the high end of what Vrana could realistically command in a hearing.
Contract (2021): Five years, $5.4MM AAV, 6.63 CH%
Platform Stats: 49 GP, 21-15-36, +8 rating, 12 PIMS, 162 shots, 17:56 ATOI
Career Stats: 246 GP, 65-68-133, +30 rating, 35 PIMS, 566 shots, 14:28 ATOI
Boone Jenner (Blue Jackets) – Now let’s look at the other end of the spectrum. While Jenner has settled into more of a checking role in recent years, his current four-year deal was signed post-bridge like Vrana is currently in. In terms of a role, both players were in and out of the middle six at times and the career point totals are similar although Vrana has played fewer games. This choice was a guess at what comparable Detroit was using for their number.
Contract (2018): Four years, $3.75MM AAV, 4.72 CH%
Platform Stats: 75 GP, 13-19-32, +1 rating, 39 PIMS, 187 shots, 16:28 ATOI
Career Stats: 342 GP, 86-75-161, +1 rating, 225 PIMS, 833 shots, 16:01 ATOI
Conor Garland (Canucks) – Let’s look at a recent deal handed out to a top-six winger post-bridge deal. Garland doesn’t have close to as long of a track record as Vrana but their production over the past two seasons is fairly close and the fact the platforms are directly comparable certainly helps. Recent performance counts for a lot in this process so this is one that Vrana’s camp will want to use.
Contract (2021): Five years, $4.95MM AAV, 6.07 CH%
Platform Stats: 49 GP, 12-27-39, -3 rating, 26 PIMS, 135 shots, 17:55 ATOI
Career Stats: 164 GP, 47-49-96, -1 rating, 58 PIMS, 411 shots, 14:53 ATOI
Kevin Labanc (Sharks) – One year after signing a highly team-friendly deal, Labanc inked a four-year deal that raised some eyebrows but there are some comparables here. The roles were largely the same (mostly top six but dropped down at times), three years of top-six production, and a contract signed post-bridge.
Contract (2020): Four years, $4.725MM AAV, 5.80 CH%
Platform Stats: 70 GP, 14-19-33, -33 rating, 38 PIMS, 176 shots, 16:04 ATOI
Career Stats: 284 GP, 50-99-149, -31 rating, 128 PIMS, 532 shots, 14:33 ATOI
Elias Lindholm (Flames) – While it took Lindholm a bit of time to become a legitimate top-six piece, the Flames signed him after acquiring him from Carolina to this current deal (one that has worked out quite well so far). Vrana’s best statistical seasons were better than Lindholm’s but the latter had the longer track record.
Contract (2018): Six years, $4.85MM AAV, 6.10 CH%
Platform Stats: 81 GP, 16-28-44, -8 rating, 18 PIMS, 153 shots, 17:54 ATOI
Career Stats: 374 GP, 64-124-188, -70 rating, 76 PIMS, 720 shots, 17:09 ATOI
Projection
Worth noting is that Detroit gets to elect the term of the contract since Vrana was the one to file. With the winger being two years from UFA eligibility, it stands to reason that the Red Wings will elect the one-year term while Vrana’s camp likely filed a two-year proposal.
The comparable contracts seem to be more in Vrana’s favor with the deals hovering around the $5MM and 6.0 CH% range. That should be the point where a long-term checks in which would put it a little below the $5.7MM AAV (6.99 CH%) of the player he was traded for in Anthony Mantha. I’d peg a long-term deal that buys out at least two UFA years a little above Garland’s deal which would put the AAV around $5.05MM (6.2 CH%) and a little above the midpoint of the two filings. If they wind up settling for a one-year pact that would keep Vrana RFA-eligible next summer, that could move the needle a little below the midpoint in the $4.6MM range. Either way, he’s looking at a nice raise for next season compared to the $3MM salary he had in 2020-21.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Free Agent Profile: Sami Vatanen
Few defensemen have seen their stock drop as significantly as Sami Vatanen’s has the last couple of years. Two seasons ago, he was a fixture in New Jersey’s top four. Even in 2020-21, he had plenty of playing time but had a soft free agent market to the point where he had to take more than a 50% pay cut to simply stick with the Devils.
Last season certainly only made things worse. Vatanen was dropped to a spot on the third pairing for New Jersey and didn’t fare particularly well. Widely speculated as a surefire trade candidate at the deadline, the Devils couldn’t find a taker and simply wound up waiving him where Dallas scooped him up. His role didn’t really change and neither did his performance, sending him to the open market coming off the worst season of his career.
Nevertheless, there is still enough upside with Vatanen that landed him on our Top 50 UFA list for the second year in a row, albeit at a much lower spot this time around. The 30-year-old saw his production fall off a cliff last season but before that, he had averaged 28 points per game over the previous six seasons. Sure, his days of being a 30-plus-point blueliner are probably done but something in the high teens/early 20’s is still a possibility; he did that as recently as 2019-20.
Vatanen is also a right-shot defender which is something that many teams are often coveting, particularly at the trade deadline. He’s someone that can still play on the second power play unit if needed and log 15 or more minutes at five-on-five. That’s not an exciting profile compared to the player he was but he can still fill a useful role.
Stats
2020-21: 39 GP, 2-4-6, +3 rating, 20 PIMS, 55 shots, 52.3 CF%, 17:01 ATOI
Career: 473 GP, 47-153-200, -5 rating, 212 PIMS, 860 shots, 49.9 CF%, 20:48 ATOI
Potential Suitors
Given that he can’t be commanding a sizable salary based on the year he had, he’s someone that a contending team may be looking to add for cheap now. Conversely, a rebuilding team could view Vatanen as someone that can hold a spot to allow a prospect to develop a little longer in the minors before looking to move him down the stretch.
In the East, the Blue Jackets don’t have much in the way of proven right-shot defensive depth with long-time fixtures Seth Jones and David Savard departing over the last few months. They’re not looking to win now but Vatanen’s presence could allow someone like Andrew Peeke to spend a bit more time in the AHL. Savard’s new team in Montreal still could use a right-shot defender with Chris Wideman currently projecting to be on their third pairing despite not being in the NHL the last two seasons. Pittsburgh could use Vatanen in the role vacated by Cody Ceci who signed in Edmonton but Vatanen’s price tag would need to come pretty close to the minimum which he may not be willing to do at the moment.
Arizona’s defensive makeover still needs another couple of players and for all of the contracts the Coyotes have taken on, they still have plenty of cap space. Calgary only has two proven righties on the back end if they don’t want to shift one of Juuso Valimaki or Oliver Kylington to their off-side and could fit Vatanen in on the third pairing. Vatanen’s original team in Anaheim added some low-cost depth blueliners to contend for a roster spot but he’d still represent an upgrade on those players if they wanted to try to rebuild his value and flip him later on.
Projected Contract
Vatanen ranked 43rd on our Top 50 UFA list with a projected one-year, $1.5MM deal. At this point, it stands to reason that he’d have taken an offer like that had it been there so he may have to take a further pay cut once again. If he can bounce back offensively, his next contract, whatever it winds up being, has the potential to be a team-friendly one.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
PHR Mailbag: Tarasenko, Eichel, Getzlaf, Islanders
There were several questions about Vladimir Tarasenko and Jack Eichel so they get the focus in this edition of the PHR Mailbag which also features a question about Anaheim’s captain and the Islanders’ summer strategy of keeping as much secret as possible. If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.
Gmm8811: My thoughts on the Tarasenko situation in St. Louis compared to when Brett Hull was a Blue. Both were great goal scorers that didn’t contribute much to their defensive game when needed. When Hull left, he became a much better all-around player. Obviously, Hull was more productive, but it was a different era. If Vlad leaves the Blues, do you think he can elevate that part of his game? If he stays in St. Louis, can he get over the issues he’s brought up? Is he hard-headed enough to say the heck with it and go back to Russia if he doesn’t get his way? Does he have it in him to be a “team” player?
I’m going to go out of order here and go with the last one first. Anything is possible when it comes to a player changing in a new environment but I wouldn’t suggest that’s a likely outcome here. It’s not as if Tarasenko is a youngster that’s still developing – he’s 29 with 531 career regular season games under his belt. Can he improve his play away from the puck? Sure, especially depending on the system he’s in (assuming he’s moved). But will it be to the point where it’s a demonstrable performance? Probably not.
There is no mechanism for him to go back to Russia unless he wants to retire from the NHL and do what Ilya Kovalchuk did where he walked away from his contract (eventually coming back when he was declared a free agent). Tarasenko is owed $15MM in salary over the next two years. That’s a lot of money to walk away from if he’s unhappy. He doesn’t necessarily have to get over his concerns if he stays, he just has to play, collect his money, and hope for a trade down the road.
sam i am: First time on here. Thx for the chats. What are your thoughts/ideas about Tarasenko? It’s past time to take a draft pick and eat some salary, isn’t it? Is there a d-man you think they can acquire AFTER Army knows how much cap space is left? Maybe sign Bozak with it? Thx again for your insight.
There’s a part of me that agrees with you. At some point, is an exit the best for everyone even if it’s a minimal return? A move with retention probably does allow them to re-sign Tyler Bozak and at this point, I suspect that’s why he remains unsigned at this point as he’s waiting to see if they can free up some money to re-sign him. Accordingly, Bozak would basically be part of the return for Tarasenko, not just the draft pick. I don’t see them looking to add an impact defenseman at this point either, they’ll give players like Niko Mikkola and Jake Walman longer looks while Scott Perunovich could be in the mix at some point as well.
On the other hand, at what point does a nominal return of a pick and Bozak’s return get outweighed by the potential of Tarasenko bouncing back? If they truly believe that the third time is the charm when it comes to his shoulder surgery (I’m a little leery about that), it then stands to reason that they think he can still play an impact role. And if that’s the case, the potential on-ice reward is better than what Bozak and a pick will bring, not to mention two years of carrying dead money on the books.
Yes, there’s a mutual desire to get a trade done but that doesn’t mean St. Louis should take whatever the best return is even if it’s a lousy one simply to get Tarasenko out of town. At some point, the potential upside of Tarasenko rebounding has to count for something and I suspect that’s what’s holding things up. GM Doug Armstrong doesn’t have to move him even though he wants to.
deeds: Where will Tarasenko end up? Are the Blues stuck with a disgruntled employee?
I think he stays with St. Louis, at least to start the season for the reasons mentioned above. If his trade value is really so low that all they can do is take a pick and have to eat some money to do it, they might as well keep him and see if he rebounds. Most teams have used up their cap space at this point so it’s not like it’s going to be considerably harder to trade him in-season if it comes to it; they’ll still have to retain money or take a high-priced contract back either way. If he bounces back, great. If he doesn’t, he still might be easier to move as an expiring deal a year from now and a buyout could definitely be in play at that point as well.
Coach Wall: Why all the fuss about Jack Eichel? Any team that pays him $10 million AAV for the next five or six years AND gives Buffalo their asking price is foolish. The guy has a very serious neck issue and may not last one year.
First, to clarify, it’s five years for Eichel before he becomes an unrestricted free agent. And yes, the neck issue is serious although the fusion surgery that the Sabres are pushing for is one that players have had and returned from. It’s serious but it shouldn’t a career-ender. The one that Eichel’s camp wants (artificial disc replacement) hasn’t been done on an NHL player before but carries a much shorter recovery time. When his agents released a statement last month, they claimed he could be ready to start the season. Even if that isn’t the case now, he might only miss a few games assuming everything goes well.
The reason why there is a lot of fuss is that top centers rarely become available in the prime of their career. Eichel is a top center in the prime of his career. He comes with a significant injury but the previous point still stands nonetheless. That’s why Buffalo GM Kevyn Adams is driving a hard bargain on the trade front. They don’t have to move him regardless of what the public sentiment is. The surgery they want would cost him a big chunk of next season but with what they’re planning to run out as a goalie tandem as things currently stand, they might actually view that as a good thing as it’s pretty clear they’re not looking to compete let alone contend.
Should a team pay the premium price tag which still seems to involve four significant young assets? It’s certainly fair to argue they shouldn’t considering the injury concerns and it’s hard to put conditions in a trade based on a successful operation (but I wouldn’t be shocked if that language is in there at some point). But Eichel, when healthy, plays at a level that would significantly impact almost every team in the league. That’s bound to generate plenty of hype.
Gbear: I heard one hockey writer say that Eichel should just get the surgery he wants regardless of what the Sabres recommend, but couldn’t that give the Sabres a legal avenue to try and void Eichel’s contract, let alone cover the costs of the surgery? And might that be the angle Pegula is playing here?
For clarification’s sake, before digging into this, here is the relevant portion of Section 34.4 of the CBA called Second Medical Opinions:
(e) Following the later of: (i) issuance of the Second Medical Opinion; or (ii) issuance of the recommendation on diagnosis or course of treatment by the Third Physician Expert, if any, the team physician shall determine the diagnosis and/or course of treatment (including the timing thereof) after consulting with the Second Medical Opinion Physician and the Third Physician Expert, if any, and giving due consideration to his/her/their recommendation(s).
The second medical opinion is the one that’s saying to do the artificial disc replacement but this rule clearly indicates that Buffalo gets to decide on the course of treatment and they’ve made their preference known.
There is a clause in a standard player’s contract (Section 6) that has a remedy for the team to void a deal if there is a material breach and I’m sure there’s an argument that could be made to say that getting a surgery that has never been performed on an NHL player before without consent from the team constitutes a material breach.
But I don’t think that’s Buffalo’s end game. If owner Terry Pegula simply wanted out of the contract, wouldn’t he just tell his GM to trade him for whatever the best deal available is and be done with it? I think Buffalo’s situation basically is they don’t want their star player being the guinea pig for a surgery that has never been performed on an NHL player before. It doesn’t matter that other athletes have had it; they just don’t want it done to their guy. They want Eichel to have what they feel is the safer procedure and that he comes back late in the season and resumes being their top forward right away.
Could Eichel force the issue? Sure, but the consequences could be dire. I have to think that if it was a more realistic scenario without the risk of his deal being voided, it might have been done already.
JerCanne: On a scale from 1-10 what are the chances Eichel is a Calgary Flame in October?
I’ll give it a two. Eichel makes a lot of sense for the Flames. Sean Monahan, Elias Lindholm, and Mikael Backlund are all quality centers but none of them have the top-level upside that a healthy Eichel would bring to the table. (It briefly appeared that Monahan could but that has waned over the last couple of seasons.)
But while those players are quality pieces, none are really young enough to entice Buffalo unless their main presence is as a salary offset. The Flames don’t have a particularly robust prospect pool that will make them willing to deal the types of youngsters that Adams and the Sabres are seeking. Eichel is a good fit on paper for Calgary but I don’t think they have the trade pieces that Buffalo is going to want unless their asking price dips sharply.
JustPete: What do you think of the Ducks new contract with Getzlaf – seems awfully rich to me. Follow up question – are the Ducks in such a position to warrant their lack of free agent activity or should they just fire Bob Murray?
I think it’s a little high but not overly excessive. A $3MM base salary for a third liner isn’t over the top and given their inactivity, he’s still probably in their top six in which case the price tag is reasonable. $1.5MM in games played bonuses makes it a little strange as Anaheim doesn’t exactly need the cap flexibility but it could come in handy if those bonuses are hit before the trade deadline if they wind up deciding to move him. I wouldn’t have given Ryan Getzlaf quite that much but with the cap space they have, if you’re going to overpay someone, it might as well be a franchise icon.
Let’s dig into the lack of free agent activity which starts and ends with Getzlaf. I have to admit, that surprised me. I thought they were going to try to add a piece or two to try get back into the mix in the Pacific Division but the lack of movement suggests that Murray is thinking about a longer-term rebuild. Frankly, that’s not a bad idea but if you’re going to do that, having a head coach in the final year of his contract (with their new AHL bench boss highlighting that as an attraction as Joel Bouchard did last month) seems a little strange as well.
Murray hasn’t had a great last few years, that much is for sure. But if he has been given the green light to go down this path, he has some job security to do so; ownership likely wouldn’t commit to this plan and then fire him partway through it. I think he sticks around.
The Mistake of Giving Eugene Melnyk a Liver Transplant: Why do the Islanders wait so long to make their contracts official? What benefit is there for the team, and even more perplexing, what benefit is there for the players?
By keeping as much cap space open as they have, it helped the Islanders hedge against an offer sheet. While they’re rarely handed out, enough teams are concerned about it to do things to deter against one being issued. For some of the contracts in place, are there side agreements to amend the term/money depending on what happens? Your guess is as good as mine on that front.
It also could give them a little bit of extra leverage in trade discussions. If they want to acquire someone, how much cap space do they have to clear to make that move happen? If no other teams know what the Isles’ cap situation is like, it can’t be used against them. For example, another team can’t come back and say that New York’s cap situation is so bad that they have to sell so and so for pennies on the dollar or demand additional compensation to take a player on. They can’t make that claim because they don’t know how much money the Islanders have or don’t have.
In terms of the benefit for the players, there is none. But GM Lou Lamoriello has been around long enough to be trusted. There are handshake deals in place and he’ll live up to them.
Largely, this is Lou just being Lou. He’s known to have a firm no-leak policy and has walked away from deals before if it became public before being officially announced. That’s enough to have multiple agents and players keeping quiet at a time where the majority of moves are leaked in advance of being made official. That’s really quite impressive even if it can be frustrating along the way.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.