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Offseason Checklist: Dallas Stars

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The offseason has arrived with roughly half of the league missing the playoffs and several more having since been eliminated.  It’s time to examine what those teams need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Dallas.

Just one season removed from an appearance in the Stanley Cup Final, the Stars wound up missing the playoffs altogether in 2020-21.  Injuries from their run in the bubble certainly contributed to that although they also had several veterans that underachieved.  Nevertheless, with Ben Bishop and Tyler Seguin returning next season, Dallas will be adding a pair of important pieces back to their lineup without needing to make many moves.  However, there are still some items for GM Jim Nill to accomplish this summer.

Add Scoring Winger

With Seguin, Jamie Benn, Joe Pavelski, Roope Hintz, and Radek Faksa, Dallas is pretty well set down the middle for next season.  At least one of them will have to move to the wing and while it may have seemed like it was going to be Benn, it doesn’t appear as if he will be the one doing so.

The Stars also have Alexander Radulov and Jason Robertson and on paper, it’s the makings of a pretty good offense.  However, despite the collection of talented threats, they’re typically a middle of the pack team when it comes to scoring.  And despite paying Benn and Seguin more than $19MM combined, they’re more of a score by committee type of team.

With Andrew Cogliano and Blake Comeau coming off the books, they have $5.65MM in money that could be put towards potentially adding another top-six piece on the wing that will score more than the nine goals those two veterans combined for this season.  (Some of that will also go to their top RFA who will be covered momentarily.)  That coupled with a return to health for Seguin and Radulov should be enough to push them from a team that’s a bit below average offensively to one that’s a bit above average.  That should be worth a few more wins in the standings.

Re-Sign Heiskanen

Generally, a 21-year-old defenseman that averages basically half a point per game, has positive possession stats, and logs nearly 25 minutes a night would be viewed as having a great season.  Yet for Miro Heiskanen, it almost felt like a bit of a letdown considering how dominant he was in the bubble.  By no means was it a bad season – he played quite well – but the expectations were understandably so high that he underachieved a little bit.

It will be interesting to see if that affects Heiskanen’s contract talks as he enters restricted free agency for the first time (he does not have salary arbitration eligibility).  Heading into the year, it felt like he was on a path to earn a max-term eight-year extension that bought out four UFA seasons but still gave him a shot at reaching the open market while being in the prime of his career.

That could ultimately still happen but his step back offensively poses some questions.  Was his performance in the bubble an aberration?  Was his dip this season a one-off or a sign of things to come?  From Heiskanen’s point of view, if he believes he can get back to improving on his numbers in his first couple of seasons, he may be better off waiting a year or two and opting for a bridge deal.  While it would take away some earning power when he reaches UFA eligibility, he’d certainly earn more signing a long-term deal then than he would now with this cap environment.

Meanwhile, Nill should still want to push for as long of a contract as possible.  Even with him not quite living up to the very lofty expectations, he is still undoubtedly their franchise blueliner for years to come so if the opportunity presents itself to lock him up, it’s one they need to take.

If they wind up on a short-term pact instead, they’ll have a bit more flexibility to add a short-term win now piece as well but that’s basically only if they can get something done before the UFA period as it’s harder to add closer to the start of training camp.  There is technically plenty of time to get a deal done between now and the start of next season but if they can get something done in the next six weeks, they’ll be better off for it.

Extension Talks For Klingberg

On top of working on Heiskanen’s file, the Stars will also be eligible to sign John Klingberg to an extension once the calendar flips to the 21-22 campaign in late July.  The 28-year-old has been a fixture on their back end for the past seven years and their gamble in handing him a seven-year contract after his rookie season has panned out better than they could have hoped.  Klingberg has given them plenty of production at a $4.25MM price tag which has wound up being well below market value.

He will be 30 when his next contract begins which presents Klingberg with a tough decision to make.  Locking into a long-term deal now (or next summer with the cap likely still at $81.5MM) isn’t going to give him a higher AAV than if he waits.  However, if he opted for a higher-priced, short-term contract extension, he’d then be too old to command a contract close to the maximum term when that deal came to an end.  What’s better for him, locking in long-term and potentially leaving a bit of money on the table or bank on a cap increase over the next few years and the possibility for a slightly better payday?

In terms of cap planning, it shouldn’t be an issue for Dallas as Radulov and Pavelski ($13.25MM combined) will be coming off the books at the same time.  Those veterans shouldn’t be able to command the same price tags they have now so some of the savings there will be able to go to Klingberg.  With him having another year left, this isn’t something that has to get done but Nill has already indicated he’d like to work on this file this summer.

Add Defensive Upgrades

Between Heiskanen, Klingberg, and Esa Lindell, Dallas has a strong top half defensively.  It falls off fairly quickly after that, however.  Jamie Oleksiak is set to hit the open market this summer and after hovering around the 15 minute per game mark the previous two seasons, he logged over 20 minutes a night this year.  Some of that was him stepping up but some of that was also out of necessity.  Either way, he has positioned himself to earn more than the $2.1375MM he made this season so he’ll need to be brought back or replaced.

In terms of depth, Andrej Sekera is more of a sixth option at this point while Joel Hanley should be seventh or eighth on the depth chart.  Sami Vatanen and Mark Pysyk don’t seem likely to return so this could be an opportunity for Nill to upgrade the third pairing.  If they’re unable to bring in another top-four defender, raising the floor of that third pair will be needed, especially if they want to hedge against injuries.  Thomas Harley could be in the mix at some point next year which would help but he’ll need some more time in the minors first and shouldn’t be counted on to make an immediate impact.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Philadelphia Flyers

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The offseason has arrived with roughly half of the league missing the playoffs and several more having since been eliminated.  It’s time to examine what those teams need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Philadelphia.

After making it to the second round last season, expectations were fairly high for the Flyers heading into this season.  However, while they started strong with seven wins in their first ten games, their goaltending struggled mightily as the campaign progressed and Philadelphia wound up in sixth in the East Division as a result.  GM Chuck Fletcher opted to keep the coaching staff intact but will be tasked with finding a player or two to help vault them back into playoff contention.  Here’s what will be on their offseason checklist.

Re-Sign Sanheim

Philadelphia’s list of pending restricted free agents isn’t particularly long but one of their notables is defenseman Travis Sanheim.  Following a breakout 2018-19 season, he wound up signing a bridge contract that would ideally set him up for a more lucrative one at this point in time while giving the Flyers some more certainty about what type of role he’d be able to fill.

That hasn’t exactly happened, however.  His production dipped sharply this season as he managed just three goals and a dozen assists in 55 games.  Instead of his numbers trending towards being worthy of top-pairing minutes, they went the other way.  While his possession numbers were still strong, he, like pretty much everyone else on their back end, had some adventures in his own end as well.  That’s not an ideal platform season by any stretch.

Sanheim is going to be a part of their long-term core but will he be a key player or fill more of a supporting role?  It’s hard to see that question being definitively answered now so instead of a long-term contract that buys out some UFA years, both sides may be better off with a one-year pact that keeps him RFA-eligible but gives them more time to see where he fits in.  That type of contract would come in slightly higher than his $3.25MM qualifying offer.

Giroux Extension Talks

Claude Giroux has been a fixture in Philadelphia’s lineup for the past 13 seasons and should move into second in all-time franchise scoring (behind Bobby Clarke) at some point next season.  Along the way, the captain has been shifted between center and the wing on multiple occasions and has adapted well.  While he’s not the 102-point scorer he was just a few years ago, the 33-year-old is still a fixture in their top six and has provided a good return on his eight-year, $66.2MM contract that he signed back in July of 2013.

That deal is now a year away from expiring which means that Giroux will be eligible to sign an extension once the new league calendar starts on July 28th.  It’s hard to see Giroux wanting to go elsewhere at this point but it’s also hard to see him commanding a contract that’s particularly close to his current $8.275MM AAV.  His per-game averages the past two years are the lowest they’ve been in a decade and considering he’ll be 34 when his next contract kicks in, that’s unlikely to tick up.  Giroux may very well want to make this his last contract, especially since it’s his last chance at signing without the 35-plus classification that some teams try to avoid.

If an extension can be worked out this summer, it will take away any distraction of Giroux playing in his contract year and give Fletcher some certainty about what type of cap room he’ll have in the future.  It’s not something that has to get done but it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Flyers try to work something out with their franchise fixture.

Rebuild And Re-Sign The Goalie Tandem

There were three different goalies that played for the Flyers this season.  None of them played particularly well and none of them are under contract for 2021-22.

Of the three, it’s safe to suggest that Carter Hart will still be around.  After a good showing in his rookie year in 2018-19, he followed it up with an even better performance last season which helped lead to the higher expectations heading into 2020-21.  He even did well start this season but once the calendar flipped to March, he struggled mightily, posting a save percentage of just .852 in 15 games from then until the end of the season.  As a result, he goes from being someone that looked to be a safe bet for a long-term contract that bought out some UFA years to someone that will wind up on a bridge deal to see if this year was just a blip or a sign of things to come.

It also presents a challenge for Fletcher in terms of who to partner up with Hart.  Brian Elliott has been with the Flyers for the past four seasons and outplayed Hart this year.  If all would have gone well, Hart would have done well, earned a long-term contract, and potentially allowed for Elliott to be retained.  But now, they may need someone that can legitimately push for playing time.  At 36, that’s unlikely to be Elliott and instead of spending $1.5MM for the backup spot, that amount may need to be doubled as they shop at the higher end of the UFA market.  (Alex Lyon was the other goalie to play this season and is set to become an unrestricted free agent as well.  He could be brought back or replaced with another veteran third-stringer.)

Upgrade The Back End

Let’s go back to Philadelphia’s defensive group.  Their core – Ivan Provorov, Sanheim, Philippe Myers, and Shayne Gostisbehere – all struggled relative to expectations with Gostisbehere clearing waivers at the trade deadline.  It’s still a fairly young collection of rearguards as Gostisbehere being the only one older than 25.  But it’s also a group that could use a veteran as they never really properly replaced Matt Niskanen who surprisingly retired last fall; the Erik Gustafsson signing did not work out well at all and didn’t provide the defensive stability that Niskanen did.

A better blueline leads to fewer scoring chances and fewer goals which is less stress for Hart as he looks to rebound next season.  Finding someone who is stable in the defensive zone and can play in their top four would certainly give their defense corps a significant lift.  Affording such a move could be tricky with roughly $12MM in cap room with Sanheim plus a goalie tandem needing contracts so Fletcher will have to find a way to free up some space before trying to fill this need.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Expansion Primer: Vancouver Canucks

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Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

When the Vegas Golden Knights entered the NHL in 2017, it was unclear who might become the expansion team’s biggest rival. Las Vegas was located close to a number of Pacific Division foes, but with deep-seated rivalries already in place in Southern California, it was unclear if there would be room for the Knight. The Seattle Kraken don’t have that problem. The Vancouver Canucks, located on the same body of water less than 150 miles north, will be immediate geographical rivals of the NHL’s newest team. While Seattle may not be as competitive right off the bat as Vegas – opposing teams learned their lesson in the last Expansion Draft – an attainable goal for the club in their inaugural season could be to get the best of the rival Canucks in the season series and the division standings. The rivalry could get off to a hot start if the Kraken can steal a player of value out of Vancouver in next month’s draft.

The problem? Just as they did in the last Expansion Draft, in which they lost stay-at-home defenseman Luca Sbisa, the Canucks have again set themselves up well to protect their key players from exposure. Seattle will have a number of options, but it is hard to picture any of them swaying the tide in the new rivalry.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Jay Beagle, Brock Boeser, Loui Eriksson, Micheal Ferland, Jonah Gadjovich, Jayce Hawryluk, Matthew Highmore, Bo Horvat, Lukas Jasek, Kole Lind, Zack MacEwen, J.T. Miller, Tyler Motte, Petrus Palmu, Tanner Pearson, Elias Pettersson, Antoine Roussel, Jake Virtanen

Defense:
Guillaume Brisebois, Madison Bowey, Olli Juolevi, Tyler Myers, Nate Schmidt

Goalies:
Thatcher Demko, Braden Holtby

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

D Alexander Edler, D Travis Hamonic, F Brandon Sutter

Notable Exemptions

G Michael DiPietro, F Nils Hoglander, D Quinn Hughes, F Marc Michaelis, F Vasily Podkolzin, D Jack Rathbone, D Jett Woo

Key Decisions

The Canucks really only have decisions to make at one position: forward. In goal, last summer’s free agent addition Holby was expected to be a player that Seattle might pursue, but after a poor season the 31-year-old not longer looks like an attractive option. Vancouver will protect the younger and superior Demko and won’t put any effort into a side deal to protect Holtby. No other goalies are eligible for selection. On the blue line, only five non-UFA defenseman are eligible for selection and Bowey was acquired specifically to meet the exposure requirement on defense. Barring a trade addition, the Canucks face the easy choice of protecting top-four defensemen Myers and Schmidt and choosing the younger, more experienced, and more highly-regarded young player in Juolevi over Brisebois. Even if any of their impending UFA defenders were re-signed, including veterans Edler and Hamonic, it is unlikely to change the protection plan on the back end. Signed or not, the Kraken selecting and extending career Canuck Edler would be a fun start to the rivalry albeit an unlikely result.

Up front, things are not so simple. The Canucks have a whopping 18 eligible non-UFA forwards and it is a mix of both NHL contributors and promising prospects. The locks are core forwards Horvat, Boeser, Pettersson, Miller and the recently-extended Pearson, leaving two spots available for the remaining 13 forwards. From there, it may be easier to begin with who won’t be protected. Veterans Ferland (injury), Beagle (injury), and Eriksson (overpaid and ineffective) will be exposed. Roussel is also very likely to fall into that group after consecutive seasons of poor play and injury concern. Prospects playing overseas in Jasek and Palmu also have no chance at protection. MacEwen, if only by process of elimination, is also unlikely to be protected as a one-dimensional checking forward.

What is left is a group of six bubble forwards, all with a case for why he should be protected. Despite a disastrous 2020-21 season, the best NHL resume of the bunch belongs to Virtanen Even with just five points in 38 games this year, the 2014 sixth overall pick has 100 points in 317 games, outpacing his fellow bubble candidates. The Canucks shopped the struggling Virtanen this year, but also refused to give him away for less than what they felt he was worth. If that sentiment remains, the team will not allow Seattle to get him for nothing.

With that said, Virtanen’s $2.55MM cap hit is also the heaviest of the bunch and was a roadblock in trade dealings this year. His ongoing legal troubles are also a serious cause for pause. If Vancouver feels that the Kraken will not select Virtanen based on these issues on top of his poor production this year, they could expose him. That idea becomes more likely when considering that three other, more affordable forwards outscored Virtanen on a per-game basis this year: Motte, Hawryluk, and Highmore. All three have a strong case for protection too. Motte, 26, when healthy last season, saw a major uptick in ice time to near top-six levels. A talented defensive forward involved in the checking game and serving on the top penalty kill unit, Motte has proved himself valuable to the Canucks and his timely offense in last year’s postseason helped to make him a fan favorite. However, with Motte out of the lineup down the stretch, it was Highmore who took on a similar role and thrived following a trade from the Chicago Blackhawks. Recording five points in 18 games and taking on some short-handed responsibility, Highmore, 25, looked at home in a bottom-six role with Vancouver. His ease of transition to a new team could peak the interest of Seattle. Hawryluk, 25, surprisingly has the second-best career offensive profile within the bubble, with 27 points in 98 games despite playing for three different teams over three years. Underutilized by the Canucks this year, Hawryluk showed promising flashes with more opportunity late in the year.

The two names remaining are prospects Gadjovich and Lind. Both 2017 second-round picks, Gadjovich and Lind are each high-scoring junior products who have improved every year in the pros and were point-per-game players in the AHL this year, as well as seeing their first NHL action. Both should see increased roles next year with the Canucks, potentially ahead of any of the aforementioned bubble forwards. The upside is certainly greater for either scoring winger than any of the group outside of possibly a resurgent Virtanen. If Seattle was to select either one, they would not be selecting “prospects”. Both will lose their waiver exemption next season. If the Kraken want to take and keep Gadjovich or Lind, they would need to be prepared to hand them a roster spot, as neither would be likely to clear waivers. This calculus would of course change if the Kraken plant to select then trade one of the promising young players.

One mitigating factor to the selection of Lind, as well as Hawryluk, is that they are unsigned restricted free agents. Seattle must select 20 players under contract in 2021-22. With just ten slots to use on both unrestricted and restricted free agents, the team may not feel that Lind or Hawryluk are worthy of a spot. Vancouver could extend Hawryluk to make him a more attractive selection and possible convince Seattle to take him over another more valuable forward. They will not do the same with the coveted Lind.

Projected Protection List

F Brock Boeser
F Jonah Gadjovich
F Bo Horvat
F J.T. Miller
F Tyler Motte
F Tanner Pearson
F Elias Pettersson

D Olli Juolevi
D Tyler Myers
D Nate Schmidt

G Thatcher Demko

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019-20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (6): Jay Beagle, Loui Eriksson, Matthew Highmore, Zack MacEwen, Antoine Roussel, Jake Virtanen
Defensemen (1): Madison Bowey

With several top young players and near future contributors exempt and all core players protected, the list of options for Seattle is not strong. Vancouver does not appear to be a team that offers any UFA’s worth selecting, so the team will still lose a current roster player. However, they stand almost no chance of losing a player of any great meaning. The greatest impact would perhaps be if the Kraken went with the surprise selection of Holtby, as it would force the Canucks to find a new backup this off-season. However, this season provided little evidence that Holtby would be a worthwhile pick, especially at his current cost. There are no defenseman of value to Vancouver available and it hard to envision Seattle going in that direction anyway.

So again, it all comes back to forward. With Vancouver opting to protect defensive ace Motte and budding power forward Gadjovich with their final two protection slots, the Kraken will be looking at the other four bubble forwards and MacEwen, as barring trade incentive from the Canucks they will not touch any of the overpriced veterans. Virtanen and Lind have the highest upsides, but each come with concerns. Virtanen is expensive, has off-ice baggage, and is coming off a poor season. If selected, he likely has no trade value as the Canucks were unable to deal him themselves this year. Lind would have to be selected with the intention of being a key, everyday starter. He would not clear waivers and would require a roster spot and would take up a valuable unsigned draft slot if selected. Lind is still a very viable option in this scenario, especially if the Kraken are high on him, as his junior and minor league production shows NHL potential and he would have trade value to other teams if he cannot crack the Seattle roster. If either of these two are selected and blossom with the Canucks new rivals, it will sting.

If the issues surrounding potential top-nine forwards Virtanen and Lind are too much for the Kraken, they will likely look for a dependable fourth-liner in Highmore or MacEwen rather than a depth option in Hawryluk, who is also unsigned. In fact, Highmore’s recent success jumping from Chicago to Vancouver and thriving in a bottom-six role could inspire the Kraken. If they don’t love Lind and don’t want to risk Virtanen, then Highmore is the likely choice.

Poll: Who Should Win The 2021 Jack Adams Award?

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All of the finalists for the major regular season awards have been announced, meaning it’s time for the NHL to start naming winners. That will begin on Monday with the King Clancy Memorial Trophy awarded to one of Kurtis Gabriel, Pekka Rinne, and P.K. Subban.

It’s hard for fans to really know the nuances of each finalist for the first three awards that will be announced next week. The King Clancy and Masterton are given to players just as much because of their off-ice interactions and leadership as their performance during the season. The Willie O’Ree, which will be awarded on Wednesday, is given to a community hero.

So let’s look ahead a few days to Thursday and the Jack Adams Award to see what the PHR community thinks should happen. Does the honor belong to Rod Brind’Amour of the Carolina Hurricanes, Dean Evason of the Minnesota Wild, or Joel Quenneville of the Florida Panthers?

The year before Brind’Amour took over behind the bench in Carolina, the Hurricanes weren’t very good. Even though they had strong performances from young players like Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen, and Jaccob Slavin, the team didn’t have the goaltending to compete in the tough Metropolitan Divison, which had five teams finish with at least 97 points. Carolina finished the year with a 36-35-11 record, missing the playoffs. Assistant Rod took over (along with several major trades to shake up the roster) and the team took off. Three years later and Brind’Amour is a Jack Adams finalist following a 36-12-8 regular season, good for third in the NHL.

Evason perhaps performed an even more impressive turnaround in Minnesota. Sure, the Wild made the playoffs six seasons in a row from 2012-2018, but the core that took them to many of those postseason appearances was either long gone or in a dramatic decline by the time he took over in 2020. He had just a taste during the 2019-20 season before COVID shut things down, but it was obviously a good move for the Wild to bring him back. A year after losing in four games to the Vancouver Canucks in the bubble qualification round, Minnesota was reborn under Evason into an exciting, must-watch hockey club. Kirill Kaprizov has a lot to do with that transformation, but so does the rookie head coach, who posted the best winning percentage in Wild history at .670 this season. Minnesota’s record of 35-16-5 tied them with Tampa Bay for eighth-best in the league, but they just were unlucky enough to run into the powerhouse Vegas Golden Knights in the first round (and pushed them to the limit to boot).

’Quenneville was lucky enough to have one of the best young cores in the league, anyone could have won those Cups with Chicago’ said many of his detractors when he signed a massive contract with the Panthers in 2019. Maybe that young Blackhawks core was lucky to have him, too. The legendary head coach had another outstanding year behind the bench, capitalizing on some savvy front office moves from Bill Zito to take the Panthers to the fourth-best record in the NHL. Incredibly, the .705 points percentage that Florida managed this season is the second-highest of Quenneville’s Hall of Fame career, only trailing the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season (which happened to end pretty well).

Of course, these weren’t the only strong head coaching performances this season. The New York Islanders’ recent playoff run would likely make Barry Trotz the favorite, but it is of course a regular season award. Mike Sullivan of the Pittsburgh Penguins navigated injuries to nearly his entire roster and had his club in a position to do some damage in the postseason. Even someone like Rick Bowness in Dallas should get some credit for managing a winning record in a year that nearly everything went wrong for the Stars (just imagine if a handful of those 14 overtime/shootout losses had gone their way).

So, PHR faithful, we ask you who you would give the Jack Adams to this season. Is it one of the finalists, or another one of the league’s head coaches? Cast your vote and make sure to explain it in the comments!

[Mobile users click here to vote]

Expansion Primer: Washington Capitals

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Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

Expansion wasn’t too kind to Washington last time as they lost Nate Schmidt to Vegas and he quickly went from a depth defender to a key part of their back end for three seasons before cap constraints necessitated a move to Vancouver.  While rosters can still change in the next six weeks, it certainly appears as if the Capitals will be losing another notable piece to the Kraken next month.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Nicklas Backstrom (NMC), Nic Dowd, Lars Eller, Shane Gersich, Carl Hagelin, Garnet Hathaway, Axel Jonsson-Fjallby, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Beck Malenstyn, Anthony Mantha, T.J. Oshie, Garrett Pilon, Brian Pinho, Conor Sheary, Daniel Sprong, Tom Wilson

Defense:
John Carlson, Brenden Dillon, Nick Jensen, Lucas Johansen, Michal Kempny, Dmitry Orlov, Justin Schultz, Trevor van Riemsdyk

Goalies:
Pheonix Copley, Zach Fucale, Ilya Samsonov, Vitek Vanecek

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

G Craig Anderson, F Daniel Carr, D Zdeno Chara, G Henrik Lundqvist, F Alex Ovechkin, F Michael Raffl

Notable Exemptions

D Alexander Alexeyev, D Martin Fehervary, F Hendrix Lapierre, F Connor McMichael

Key Decisions

Since Seattle was unveiled as the 32nd NHL franchise, there has been plenty of speculation about Oshie, who was raised just north of there.  Wouldn’t it be something if a hometown player became the first-ever captain of the franchise?  And hey, clearing his $5.75MM AAV through 2025 off the books would give the Capitals some much-needed cap flexibility.  However, he certainly doesn’t want to go and GM Brian MacLellan has indicated that he wants Oshie back as well.  Let’s not forget that he was one of their top scorers this season and they’re a team that wants to win now.  It’s possible that he could be left unprotected due to his contract to allow them to protect a bubble forward but with other viable options to choose from, he doesn’t seem to be the strongest of candidates to be picked.

Let’s dig into those bubble forwards.  Wingers Hagelin and Hathaway appear to be safe bets to be left unprotected as their price tags are a little high for the roles they provide and for a team in need of cap space, they’re not going to protect a role player making more than they’d get on the open market.  Eller makes a little more than most third line centers but with plenty of uncertainty surrounding Kuznetsov’s future with the team (he appears to be a prime candidate to be traded), it’s hard to see them letting their insurance policy in Eller go.

That leaves a trio of forwards to ponder in Sheary, Sprong, and Dowd.  Sheary had a respectable 14 goals in 53 games this season and recently signed a two-year contract with a $1.5MM cap hit, a more than reasonable price tag.  However, Sprong had 13 goals in 42 games and will have an AAV below the league minimum next season.  He’s also five years younger than Sheary but has bounced around already in his career and had limited usage in the playoffs.  Then there’d Dowd, their fourth-line center for the past three years.  He had 11 goals in 56 games this season, won over 56% of his faceoffs, and is signed for the league minimum.  There’s a lot of value in that contract.  Only one can be kept, however.

Having said that, it might not matter which one gets protected as in the end, their other positions appear to be riper for the picking.

Heading into the season, Samsonov looked like a lock to be protected.  However, injuries and COVID-19 limited him to just 19 regular season appearances where he didn’t play particularly well, notching just a .902 SV%.  On the other hand, he has been their goalie of the future since he was picked 22nd overall in 2015 and his rookie season showed plenty of promise.  There is definitely still some upside to the 24-year-old who is a pending restricted free agent.

Still, Samsonov’s struggles opened the door for Vanecek who went from having no NHL experience this season to their de facto starter where he performed a little better than Samsonov did (a .908 SV% with an identical 2.69 GAA).  It’s also worth noting that he’s also signed at a cap hit that’s below the league minimum next season.  Even to Seattle, a team that probably won’t go right to the Upper Limit right away, that carries a lot of value.

Unlike skaters, there is no alternate protection scheme that allows a team to protect multiple goaltenders.  Barring a side agreement, one of them has to be made available and whichever one is left exposed becomes an immediate contender to be selected.

There is an interesting decision that needs to be made on the back end as well.  Carlson and Orlov are locks to be protected but that only leaves one slot for several capable defenders.

Schultz was one of the bigger surprise signings last fall when he got a two-year, $8MM contract despite a tough year with Pittsburgh.  To his credit, he bounced back nicely with 27 points in 46 games which is decent value for an offensive defender.  On a back end that doesn’t have a lot of offensive pop beyond Carlson and Orlov, losing him would definitely hurt.

But while Dillon doesn’t provide much on the scoresheet, he brings a lot of physicality and defensive acumen to the table which earned him a four-year, $15.6MM deal after impressing in his short stint upon being acquired as a rental at the trade deadline.  He brings a dimension that they were seeking for a while and with three years left, he’s more likely to be part of their long-term plans over Schultz who will be unrestricted next summer.  But is $3.9MM too pricey for Seattle for a stay-at-home defender?

Kempny could have been in the mix for this final slot had he been healthy but injuries wiped out his entire season.  He should be ready for next season but after not playing this season, he’s not a big risk to be selected.  Jensen is a contract they wouldn’t mind unloading to free up some extra wiggle room but they’d need some incentive to take him and while van Riemsdyk has over 400 career games of experience (including the playoffs) and is signed for just $950K, it doesn’t seem likely that he’ll entice the Kraken either.

Projected Protection List

F Nicklas Backstrom (NMC)
F Lars Eller
F Evgeny Kuznetsov
F Anthony Mantha
F T.J. Oshie
F Conor Sheary
F Tom Wilson

D John Carlson
D Dmitry Orlov
D Justin Schultz

G Ilya Samsonov

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (4): Nic Dowd, Carl Hagelin, Garnet Hathaway, Daniel Sprong
Defensemen (4): Brenden Dillon, Nick Jensen, Michal Kempny, Trevor van Riemsdyk

There are definitely a couple of viable routes for Seattle to take here.  Dillon isn’t flashy but is definitely dependable and would comfortably step into their top four for the foreseeable future.  But Vanecek is coming off a strong first NHL season and is cheap.  At least three goalies have to be picked by the Kraken and at a bare minimum, he’d be an intriguing pick-and-flip candidate.  He’s also a restricted free agent at the end of next season so it’s quite plausible for him to be viewed as part of their longer-term plans.  Seattle GM Ron Francis will have a tough decision to make but he will be landing a quality player from the Capitals either way.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Calgary Flames

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The offseason has arrived with roughly half of the league missing the playoffs and several more having since been eliminated.  It’s time to examine what those teams need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Calgary.

Expectations were fairly high for the Flames heading into the season.  They landed the top goaltender in free agency back in the fall in Jacob Markstrom while also adding Christopher Tanev to anchor a defensive pairing.  These win-now moves didn’t do much to move the needle, however.  Geoff Ward lost his head coaching job before the halfway point of the season with Darryl Sutter being brought in to turn things around but he managed the same .500 win percentage as his predecessor.  Their only playoff victory in the past six seasons was the Qualifying Round in the bubble so it appears more changes will be on the horizon.  What those changes should be highlights their summer checklist.

Add A Backup Goalie

Calgary had David Rittich backing up Markstrom for most of the season and the results weren’t particularly great although they were able to get a third-round pick from Toronto who brought him in as injury insurance for the playoffs.  Louis Domingue served as the backup after that and he’s an unrestricted free agent this summer.  That creates an opening that will need to be filled.

The good news is that there are plenty of free agents available so GM Brad Treliving shouldn’t have a hard time finding one.  The question here will be how much they want to commit to Markstrom’s understudy.  Markstrom, when healthy, has shown himself to be capable of logging heavy workloads and this season was no exception as only Connor Hellebuyck made more appearances.  If they want him to play that much over the next couple of years, they can shop at the lower end of the market and free up some cap room for other areas.  However, most teams don’t want their starter playing 60-plus games each season and if the Flames feel that way, they’ll have to shop closer to the higher end where it will cost another million or so on the AAV.

Core Decisions

The Flames have a core group up front and while they have shown flashes of strong offensive performances, it simply hasn’t been good enough.  Returning the same core that has underachieved feels like a complete non-option at this point as expecting a big internal improvement from this group probably isn’t feasible.  The question isn’t if the core will be back but rather how much of it won’t be.

The biggest uncertainty surrounds Johnny Gaudreau.  The winger is set to enter the final year of his contract and while he has expressed a willingness to sign an extension, it’s fair to speculate if Calgary may feel otherwise.  The 27-year-old didn’t have a bad year – he led the team in scoring and improved his per-game rates from 2019-20.  But he’s also not the same player he was a few years ago when he put up two seasons of better than a point-per-game average including a 99-point campaign in 2018-19.  He’s still a top-line player for now but do they want to commit a long-term contract to him?  If not, then he becomes one of the more intriguing trade candidates of the summer as letting him walk to unrestricted free agency isn’t a viable idea.

Sean Monahan has also been in trade speculation already.  He also has seen his production taper off in recent years and he had just 10 goals and 28 points this season in 50 games.  In terms of output from centers, he was third behind Elias Lindholm and Mikael Backlund.  With two years left, he’s not a rental either although they’d be selling low.  With three top-six pivots, do they look to flip one for some help on the wing?

Is one move going enough or will multiple changes be needed to shake things up?  That’s what Treliving is going to have to determine in the coming weeks and with it being harder to move money once the top free agents are off the board, he will likely need to make this decision by the end of July.

Add Offensive Help

On top of shaking up their offensive core, Calgary needs to add to it.  They’ve been in the middle of the pack defensively the last couple of seasons but have only managed to finish 20th in goals scored in each of the past two seasons.  They didn’t have a 20-goal scorer either.  The composition of their roster is better suited towards a score by committee approach but for that to work, they need to have three lines capable of scoring.  They’re not there just yet.

Yes, younger players like World Championships MVP Andrew Mangiapane and Dillon Dube are capable of improving and providing a boost from within.  But adding one more top-six forward would also go a long way towards deepening their attack.  However, with nearly $68MM in commitments to just 14 players, that doesn’t leave a lot of wiggle room for an impact addition so some cap juggling will be needed if Treliving is going to be able to add to the core.

Protect Giordano

With how well a lot of side deals in expansion went for Vegas back in 2017, some have expected there won’t be as many of those made this time around.  But Calgary looks like a team that may want to do so given their situation on the back end.

With Noah Hanifin, Rasmus Andersson, and Tanev, Calgary has three blueliners locked up for at least the next three seasons.  It then stands to reason that those will be the three that they protect from Seattle, assuming they use the standard 7/3/1 protection scheme.  However, that leaves their captain Mark Giordano on the outside looking in.

Giordano has been a fixture for the Flames for nearly 15 years aside from a brief stint in the KHL.  He’s second in franchise history in games played and third in scoring by a defenseman.  Yes, he’s nearing the end of his playing career (and has just one year left on his contract with a $6.75MM AAV) but he’s someone the Flames would undoubtedly want to keep around as long as it doesn’t cost them one of those other three protectees, even if it took away from adding up front.

While a 37-year-old on a pricey expiring contract may not seem like the best fit for an expansion franchise, he’d give Seattle some short-term stability and an intriguing trade chip so they could be inclined to take him.  Treliving will need to find a way to talk them out of potentially doing that.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Chicago Blackhawks

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The offseason has arrived with roughly half of the league missing the playoffs and several more having since been eliminated.  It’s time to examine what those teams need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Chicago.

The Blackhawks were one of the early-season surprises this season.  Despite losing Jonathan Toews for the season (the hope is that he returns next year) and a very unproven goaltending trio (which appears likely to remain next season), they were in the playoff race for most of the year before falling out late.  Considering they weren’t expected by many to be in postseason contention heading into the season, being in the race as long as they were is a small victory but GM Stan Bowman will need to take some more strides towards improving the roster for 2021-22.  On top of that, some important decisions need to be made regarding a pair of players who are on the fringes of the core.

Utilize LTIR Flexibility

While there is some uncertainly with Toews’ availability for the start of next season, there isn’t any with Brent Seabrook ($6.875MM) and Andrew Shaw ($3.9MM).  Both players have effectively retired, announcing they won’t be able to play again due to their respective injuries, a hip issue for Seabrook and lingering concussion trouble for Shaw.  This past season, they were among several Blackhawks on LTIR and Bowman will have that option once again.

On the one hand, it’s possible that both go there in the summer, giving them some room to spend in free agency but Bowman has been hesitant to go that route in the past.  Whether they do it early or closer to the start of the season though, they have the ability to add a player or two, either adding to their roster or adding a future asset or two for taking on a contract as they did with Brett Connolly near the trade deadline.  With the team having to proceed as if Toews will be available, this will likely be their biggest source of cap space this summer.

Avoid Arbitration With Zadorov

The flat salary cap has already created some restrictions on the ‘middle-class’ earners in the league and that’s likely to be the case for a while.  Accordingly, that has increased the pressure for teams to work out early contracts with some of their pending restricted free agents that have arbitration eligibility where they fear the award would be too low to walk away from but too high to fit in their salary structure.  Chicago has one of those players in defenseman Nikita Zadorov.

The 26-year-old was acquired last fall from Colorado as part of the trade that saw Brandon Saad head to the Avalanche and provided his usual brand of physical play, albeit with some shaky play at times in his own end and limited offensive upside.  However, he logged over 19 minutes a night and at 6’6, few blueliners can match his size.  The 16th pick in 2013 has shown enough flashes to warrant keeping around but only at the right price tag.  After signing a one-year, $3.2MM contract upon being acquired, that number now represents his qualifying offer.  But he also has arbitration eligibility where his 411 career NHL contests could push an award higher than Chicago is willing to pay.

There have been mutual expressions of interest in getting something done between the Blackhawks and Zadorov but this also feels like a situation where the team isn’t going to give the blueliner a chance to get it to a hearing and risk a reward that they don’t want to pay; the minimum award to qualify for walkaway rights was $4.539MM and it’s unlikely Zadorov would go above that in a hearing.  Accordingly, that makes July 26th the date to watch for as that’s the deadline to tender a qualifying offer.

Strome Decision

When the Blackhawks acquired Dylan Strome from Arizona back in 2018, he made an immediate impact and it looked like he was quickly becoming a core player for the future.  His numbers dipped in 2019-20 but he did well enough to earn a two-year, $6MM bridge contract, getting a longer look in the process.

Unfortunately, that longer look did not go well.  Strome struggled offensively, did not adjust well to playing on the wing at times, and when it mattered most down the stretch when they were trying to stay alive in the playoff hunt, he was a healthy scratch.  Forget about him being a core player for years to come.  Is he even part of the plans for next season now?

Strome feels like a viable change of scenery candidate this summer.  Toews could be back as will Kirby Dach and those two should reclaim their spots down the middle while Pius Suter held his own in his rookie season.  Knowing that Strome isn’t particularly comfortable on the wing, he could be the odd man out.  However, with a $3.6MM salary, that’s a bit pricey for someone that could be viewed as a potential reclamation project which will limit his market.  Bowman will have to decide if taking a lesser return is worth it or if they’re better off holding on to him to see if he rebounds in a contract year.

Clear Forward Logjam

One thing that Bowman has done in recent years is improve their depth up front.  He has hit on recent international additions in Suter, Dominik Kubalik, and Philipp Kurashev.  Prospects Mackenzie Entwistle (trade), Brandon Hagel, Reese Johnson, and Mike Hardman (undrafted free agent signings) have shown some upside and all saw NHL action this season.  Even if none of them turn into stars, cost-controllable depth is great to have.

But they seem to quickly be reaching the point where they may have a bit too much.  Dach will be back next year, as will Alexander Nylander.  Toews could be back.  Trade deadline acquisitions Connolly (two years remaining) and Adam Gaudette (pending RFA) should still be around.  Plus, for good measure, Henrik Borgstrom has a two-year, one-way deal while one of their top prospects Lukas Reichel just signed and could make the jump quickly.

A quick look at their depth chart yields around 20 forwards who could potentially be ready for NHL action to start next season without even factoring in who could potentially be brought in using their LTIR space.  Yes, some of those are waiver-exempt and can start in the minors and there could be injuries in training camp but on the surface, it appears as if they have some expendable depth.  With affordable NHL players being of increasing importance, Bowman may want to turn some of that depth into some future pieces in the form of draft picks or prospects to keep the system well-stocked.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Expansion Primer: Winnipeg Jets

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Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

The Jets had a bit of an up-and-down season as they went from battling for the top spot in the North Division to backing into the playoffs.  Then they went from sweeping Edmonton in the first round to being swept by Montreal in the second round.  GM Kevin Cheveldayoff will have some decisions to make this summer as a result including a couple of calls to make in terms of their expansion planning.  In the Vegas draft, they traded down 11 spots in the first round to secure the protections of Marko Dano and Toby Enstrom.  Will they need to make another protection trade this time around?

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Mason Appleton, Kyle Connor, Andrew Copp, Marko Dano, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Nikolaj Ehlers, Jansen Harkins, Bryan Little, Adam Lowry, Skyler McKenzie, Mark Scheifele, Ivan Telegin, Blake Wheeler (NMC)

Defense:
Nathan Beaulieu, Dylan DeMelo, Luke Green, Josh Morrissey, Sami Niku, Nelson Nogier, Neal Pionk, Logan Stanley

Goalies:
Mikhail Berdin, Connor Hellebuyck, Cole Kehler

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

D Jordie Benn, G Laurent Brossoit, D Derek Forbort, F Mathieu Perreault, D Tucker Poolman, F Paul Stastny, F Nate Thompson, F Dominic Toninato

Notable Exemptions

F David Gustafsson, D Ville Heinola, F Cole Perfetti, D Dylan Samberg, F Kristian Vesalainen

Key Decisions

There is some intrigue on the back end for Winnipeg.  There are certainly more than three players worthy of protection but at the same time, there is no case to make to shift from the typical 7 F/3 D/1 G strategy to eight skaters and a goalie.

In terms of the obvious ones to protect, it’s Pionk and Morrissey.  Those two logged heavy minutes all season while contributing a good chunk of their offensive production.  Morrissey is already signed long-term through 2028 and it seems likely at this point that Cheveldayoff will try to get Pionk, who is arbitration-eligible for the first time, locked up to a long-term deal as well.  That leaves one spot for everyone else.

DeMelo’s absence was certainly felt after exiting the series quickly against the Canadiens.  While he doesn’t put up many points or even log a lot of minutes, he is a stabilizing defensive presence and penalty killer on a defense corps that is often shaky in their own zone.  That’s why they handed him a four-year, $12MM contract last fall and it’s unlikely their opinion of him has changed much in the last nine months; he’s clearly someone that they want around for a while.  But having said that, in this cap environment, would a $3MM AAV for someone who typically plays third-pairing minutes be enough to scare Seattle off to the point where not protecting him could be viable?

That question is what they will be considering when it comes to Stanley.  The 23-year-old just made his NHL debut this season but he has been on an NHL contract for three years, making him eligible for selection.  The 2016 first-round pick (16th overall) had a limited role but blueliners often develop slower than forwards and given his size, the learning curve was a bit steeper.  If they believe he’s capable of playing himself into a more prominent role over the next couple of years, it would be tough to risk losing him for nothing.  And from Kraken GM Ron Francis’ perspective, Stanley is exactly the type of young player to either take a flyer on to develop or to flip in another trade.

Beaulieu and Niku are also worth a mention.  Beaulieu has been serviceable on the third pairing for the last few years and with a $1.25MM cap hit, he’s someone that could be picked and flipped.  Niku dominated in the AHL in 2017-18 with 54 points in 76 games and was productive in shorter stints the last couple of years.  However, he hasn’t had much of an NHL opportunity yet and is someone that has been a prime change of scenery candidate for a while.  His $725K cap hit will also be below the NHL minimum salary next season ($750K) which could also be appealing.

Up front, Little looked like someone who would likely be protected just a couple of years ago but he hasn’t played since suffering a perforated eardrum back in November of 2019.  While his injury hasn’t been confirmed to be career-ending, that could still change which could render him exempt from selection.

Their other top-six forwards that are under contract should be locks for protection and after Lowry inked a five-year, $16.25MM extension back in April, it’s a safe assumption that one of the remaining slots will be his.  That leaves one spot left and a couple of viable options in Lowry’s linemates on Winnipeg’s third line.

Copp had shown flashes of offensive improvement over the previous few seasons but took that to another level this year, setting career highs in goals (15), assists (24), points (39), and ATOI (18:15).  Whenever injuries struck, Copp was often the one to move up in the lineup while playing the wing or down the middle when needed.  That type of versatile player is critical for teams to have and while he’s set to earn a raise from his $2.3MM qualifying offer in restricted free agency this summer in his final season of arbitration eligibility, it’s a price that Winnipeg (or Seattle, if he’s ultimately made available) would happily be willing to pay.

The other part of that third trio is Appleton whose track record isn’t quite as long.  The 25-year-old was a full-time NHL player for the first time this season and he was fairly productive in a limited role, notching 12 goals and 13 assists in 56 games.  Of those 25 points, all but one came at even strength (and the one special teams point was a power play assist).  Five-on-five scoring is always highly coveted and the early indication is that Appleton is a capable contributor in that regard.  He also only has a $900K cap hit through next season and productive low-cost depth is hard to come by.  Being only able to protect one of Copp or Appleton will hurt.

Projected Protection List

F Kyle Connor
F Andrew Copp
F Pierre-Luc Dubois
F Nikolaj Ehlers
F Adam Lowry
F Mark Scheifele
F Blake Wheeler (NMC)

D Dylan DeMelo
D Josh Morrissey
D Neal Pionk

G Connor Hellebuyck

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (2): Mason Appleton, Jansen Harkins
Defensemen (2): Nathan Beaulieu, Logan Stanley

While some teams will be losing veteran talent, it certainly feels like Winnipeg will be losing one of their younger regulars as their roster currently stands.  Appleton looks like a promising late-bloomer and after being viewed as a potential bust, Stanley took an important step forward in his development this season and should be part of their future plans now.  Is that enough for Cheveldayoff to make another side deal?  He has roughly six weeks to make that decision.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Arizona Coyotes

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The offseason has arrived with roughly half of the league finished up after missing the playoffs and several more having been eliminated.  It’s time to examine what those teams need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Arizona.

2020-21 was not a great year for Arizona.  After making the playoffs last year through the bubble, they were hoping to make it two straight postseason appearances.  However, the same issues crept up as a lack of scoring proved costly.  Not surprisingly, GM Bill Armstrong is in for a very busy summer.  Here’s a look at some of the things the Coyotes should be looking to do.

Hire A Head Coach

The Coyotes have one of the four head coaching vacancies around the league after they decided to let go of Rick Tocchet after four seasons with the team.  In that stretch, they only finished in the top half of their division once while finishing no higher than 21st in goals scored.  Arizona is more of a budget team than one that will spend to the cap and it wouldn’t be surprising to see that be the case for their coaches as well.  That would seemingly take them out of the mix for most of the veteran coaches so it wouldn’t be surprising to see another first-time hire when they make their selection.

Rebuild The Back End

Arizona has had a capable veteran defense corps over the past several years but the time for change has arrived.  Alex Goligoski, Niklas Hjalmarsson, and Jason Demers are all set to become unrestricted free agents this summer, freeing up over $14MM in cap space in the process.  (Jordan Oesterle is also a UFA but his expiring cap hit of $1.4MM is a lot lower than the others and he could be brought back for a similar amount.)  While there are cases to bring Goligoski and Hjalmarsson back out of the trio, it would need to be at a much lower price tag.

This is going to be an interesting situation to follow.  If those veterans don’t return, Armstrong will need to bring in some proven replacements in a UFA market that doesn’t have a lot of them.  Of course, they can also leverage their cap space (bolstered by Marian Hossa’s contract finally expiring) to pick up a replacement in a trade.  Regardless, it looks like it will be a new-look blueline in 2021-22.

That said, the bigger question is how much they want to spend on the back end.  The Coyotes are consistently towards the bottom of the league in goals scored and this represents an opportunity to redistribute some of their money on defense up front in an effort to add a top-six forward or two.  Replacing the veterans with similarly-priced rearguards ensures that they’ll be a squad with a strong back end once again but that’s a roster composition that hasn’t worked for them lately.  If Armstrong wants to shake up the structure of the team, this is it.

Deal For Garland

Sometimes, teams can get lucky in the draft and that’s what happened with Conor Garland.  The undersized winger went unpicked in his first year of eligibility, was scooped up with a fifth-rounder by Arizona the following draft as a low-risk flier, and now, he finds himself as one of the top scorers on the Coyotes.  It has worked out great for the team so far, getting top-six production for a bargain price tag as Garland accepted a two-year low-cost bridge deal that carried a cap hit of just $775K.  As far as top bargains in the NHL go, he should have been in the conversation more than he had been.

It’s about to work out a lot better for the 25-year-old.  That bridge contract is up this summer and he’s about to become a restricted free agent with arbitration eligibility for the first time.  Along the way, he’ll be able to add several million dollars to his price tag for next season and beyond.  He’s two years away from being eligible for unrestricted free agency so if they wind up with a one-year pact and push the bigger commitment down the road, that’s not the worst outcome, especially with some questions surrounding just how much he’s worth.

It’s for that reason that Garland came up in trade speculation closer to the trade deadline where it got to the point that they were willing to move him although the right price obviously never got offered up.  Still, it suggested that Arizona may not view Garland as a long-term player to build around which makes the prospects of a long-term agreement in the coming weeks a little lower.  Accordingly, a deal could mean two different things here – a new contract, or a new team altogether.

Extension Talks

A pair of core veterans will be entering the final year of their contracts this summer and once the calendar flips to the 2021-22 campaign at the beginning of free agency, the Coyotes will be allowed to sign Darcy Kuemper and Phil Kessel to extensions.

Kuemper went from being a lower-end backup early in his career to one of the top goalies in the league after being acquired in 2018.  In each of the last two seasons, he was among the league leaders in save percentage but took a step back this season as his save percentage dipped to .907, his lowest since his final year in Minnesota.  Still, there has been much more good than bad for the 31-year-old and with Adin Hill not looking like a starter of the future (though he should be the full-time backup next season), there is a need for Kuemper to stick around a little while longer.

Meanwhile, Kessel has seen his offensive numbers plummet since joining the Coyotes but he still finished one point off the team lead in 2019-20 and led the team in points this season.  He may not be a player that can carry a line which is what they were hoping for when he was acquired in 2019 but he is still a capable, albeit streaky, scorer.  The free agent market wasn’t kind to wingers last year and it’s likely to be the case for most wingers this year as well which means he won’t have any success trying to find a deal close to his current $8MM price tag (with Pittsburgh still paying 15% of that).  If Armstrong is able to upgrade their forward group, Kessel could be in line for a rebound year which would give him a better case for a new contract a year from now.

Of the two, Kuemper seems like the likeliest to sign an early extension but Armstrong will undoubtedly be having discussions on both fronts in the months to come.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Cap information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Poll: Who Should Win The 2021 Vezina Trophy?

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Last week, the NHL released the finalists for the 2021 Vezina Trophy. The award for most outstanding goaltender is voted on by the general managers around the NHL, but let’s see what the hockey community thinks.

Marc-Andre Fleury kicked things off among the nominees, becoming a Vezina finalist for the first time in his 17-year NHL career. The highest he has previously finished is fourth, but he’ll set a new bar at age-36 after posting a .928 save percentage in 36 appearances. Fleury went 26-10 for the Vegas Golden Knights, taking home the Jennings Trophy along with Robin Lehner as the goaltenders for the team with the league’s lowest goals-against average. Among goaltenders with at least 20 starts, he trailed only Alex Nedeljkovic and Semyon Varlamov (neither of whom are finalists) in save percentage.

Next came Philipp Grubauer, almost exactly seven years Fleury’s junior. The 29-year-old has been excellent in the past as a tandem option but has never played enough to get into the Vezina conversation. That changed this year when Grubauer played 40 games for the Colorado Avalanche, posting a 30-9-1 record and .922 save percentage. He led the league in shutouts with seven and actually had a slightly lower goals-against average than Fleury (though still not as low as Nedeljkovic). For years the Avalanche goaltending was questioned, but Grubauer answered all the doubters with a legitimate Vezina-level campaign.

If either of the first-time finalists are to take home the trophy, they’ll have to topple a goaltender who lives in the final three. Andrei Vasilevskiy is a finalist for the fourth consecutive season after leading the league in wins once again. The Tampa Bay Lightning netminder won the award in 2019 and is the almost-unbreakable last line of defense behind a strong roster. While his name and pedigree will obviously make him a tough competitor in award voting, Vasilevskiy’s .925 save percentage trailed Fleury and his 2.21 goals against average was much higher than his fellow finalists.

All three goaltenders have incredible statistics and play for some of the best teams in the league. Who deserves to take home the Vezina? Cast your vote below–if you think it should have been someone else, make sure to explain why in the comment section!

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