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Offseason Checklist: Chicago Blackhawks

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The offseason has arrived with roughly half of the league missing the playoffs and several more having since been eliminated.  It’s time to examine what those teams need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Chicago.

The Blackhawks were one of the early-season surprises this season.  Despite losing Jonathan Toews for the season (the hope is that he returns next year) and a very unproven goaltending trio (which appears likely to remain next season), they were in the playoff race for most of the year before falling out late.  Considering they weren’t expected by many to be in postseason contention heading into the season, being in the race as long as they were is a small victory but GM Stan Bowman will need to take some more strides towards improving the roster for 2021-22.  On top of that, some important decisions need to be made regarding a pair of players who are on the fringes of the core.

Utilize LTIR Flexibility

While there is some uncertainly with Toews’ availability for the start of next season, there isn’t any with Brent Seabrook ($6.875MM) and Andrew Shaw ($3.9MM).  Both players have effectively retired, announcing they won’t be able to play again due to their respective injuries, a hip issue for Seabrook and lingering concussion trouble for Shaw.  This past season, they were among several Blackhawks on LTIR and Bowman will have that option once again.

On the one hand, it’s possible that both go there in the summer, giving them some room to spend in free agency but Bowman has been hesitant to go that route in the past.  Whether they do it early or closer to the start of the season though, they have the ability to add a player or two, either adding to their roster or adding a future asset or two for taking on a contract as they did with Brett Connolly near the trade deadline.  With the team having to proceed as if Toews will be available, this will likely be their biggest source of cap space this summer.

Avoid Arbitration With Zadorov

The flat salary cap has already created some restrictions on the ‘middle-class’ earners in the league and that’s likely to be the case for a while.  Accordingly, that has increased the pressure for teams to work out early contracts with some of their pending restricted free agents that have arbitration eligibility where they fear the award would be too low to walk away from but too high to fit in their salary structure.  Chicago has one of those players in defenseman Nikita Zadorov.

The 26-year-old was acquired last fall from Colorado as part of the trade that saw Brandon Saad head to the Avalanche and provided his usual brand of physical play, albeit with some shaky play at times in his own end and limited offensive upside.  However, he logged over 19 minutes a night and at 6’6, few blueliners can match his size.  The 16th pick in 2013 has shown enough flashes to warrant keeping around but only at the right price tag.  After signing a one-year, $3.2MM contract upon being acquired, that number now represents his qualifying offer.  But he also has arbitration eligibility where his 411 career NHL contests could push an award higher than Chicago is willing to pay.

There have been mutual expressions of interest in getting something done between the Blackhawks and Zadorov but this also feels like a situation where the team isn’t going to give the blueliner a chance to get it to a hearing and risk a reward that they don’t want to pay; the minimum award to qualify for walkaway rights was $4.539MM and it’s unlikely Zadorov would go above that in a hearing.  Accordingly, that makes July 26th the date to watch for as that’s the deadline to tender a qualifying offer.

Strome Decision

When the Blackhawks acquired Dylan Strome from Arizona back in 2018, he made an immediate impact and it looked like he was quickly becoming a core player for the future.  His numbers dipped in 2019-20 but he did well enough to earn a two-year, $6MM bridge contract, getting a longer look in the process.

Unfortunately, that longer look did not go well.  Strome struggled offensively, did not adjust well to playing on the wing at times, and when it mattered most down the stretch when they were trying to stay alive in the playoff hunt, he was a healthy scratch.  Forget about him being a core player for years to come.  Is he even part of the plans for next season now?

Strome feels like a viable change of scenery candidate this summer.  Toews could be back as will Kirby Dach and those two should reclaim their spots down the middle while Pius Suter held his own in his rookie season.  Knowing that Strome isn’t particularly comfortable on the wing, he could be the odd man out.  However, with a $3.6MM salary, that’s a bit pricey for someone that could be viewed as a potential reclamation project which will limit his market.  Bowman will have to decide if taking a lesser return is worth it or if they’re better off holding on to him to see if he rebounds in a contract year.

Clear Forward Logjam

One thing that Bowman has done in recent years is improve their depth up front.  He has hit on recent international additions in Suter, Dominik Kubalik, and Philipp Kurashev.  Prospects Mackenzie Entwistle (trade), Brandon Hagel, Reese Johnson, and Mike Hardman (undrafted free agent signings) have shown some upside and all saw NHL action this season.  Even if none of them turn into stars, cost-controllable depth is great to have.

But they seem to quickly be reaching the point where they may have a bit too much.  Dach will be back next year, as will Alexander Nylander.  Toews could be back.  Trade deadline acquisitions Connolly (two years remaining) and Adam Gaudette (pending RFA) should still be around.  Plus, for good measure, Henrik Borgstrom has a two-year, one-way deal while one of their top prospects Lukas Reichel just signed and could make the jump quickly.

A quick look at their depth chart yields around 20 forwards who could potentially be ready for NHL action to start next season without even factoring in who could potentially be brought in using their LTIR space.  Yes, some of those are waiver-exempt and can start in the minors and there could be injuries in training camp but on the surface, it appears as if they have some expendable depth.  With affordable NHL players being of increasing importance, Bowman may want to turn some of that depth into some future pieces in the form of draft picks or prospects to keep the system well-stocked.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Expansion Primer: Winnipeg Jets

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Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

The Jets had a bit of an up-and-down season as they went from battling for the top spot in the North Division to backing into the playoffs.  Then they went from sweeping Edmonton in the first round to being swept by Montreal in the second round.  GM Kevin Cheveldayoff will have some decisions to make this summer as a result including a couple of calls to make in terms of their expansion planning.  In the Vegas draft, they traded down 11 spots in the first round to secure the protections of Marko Dano and Toby Enstrom.  Will they need to make another protection trade this time around?

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Mason Appleton, Kyle Connor, Andrew Copp, Marko Dano, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Nikolaj Ehlers, Jansen Harkins, Bryan Little, Adam Lowry, Skyler McKenzie, Mark Scheifele, Ivan Telegin, Blake Wheeler (NMC)

Defense:
Nathan Beaulieu, Dylan DeMelo, Luke Green, Josh Morrissey, Sami Niku, Nelson Nogier, Neal Pionk, Logan Stanley

Goalies:
Mikhail Berdin, Connor Hellebuyck, Cole Kehler

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

D Jordie Benn, G Laurent Brossoit, D Derek Forbort, F Mathieu Perreault, D Tucker Poolman, F Paul Stastny, F Nate Thompson, F Dominic Toninato

Notable Exemptions

F David Gustafsson, D Ville Heinola, F Cole Perfetti, D Dylan Samberg, F Kristian Vesalainen

Key Decisions

There is some intrigue on the back end for Winnipeg.  There are certainly more than three players worthy of protection but at the same time, there is no case to make to shift from the typical 7 F/3 D/1 G strategy to eight skaters and a goalie.

In terms of the obvious ones to protect, it’s Pionk and Morrissey.  Those two logged heavy minutes all season while contributing a good chunk of their offensive production.  Morrissey is already signed long-term through 2028 and it seems likely at this point that Cheveldayoff will try to get Pionk, who is arbitration-eligible for the first time, locked up to a long-term deal as well.  That leaves one spot for everyone else.

DeMelo’s absence was certainly felt after exiting the series quickly against the Canadiens.  While he doesn’t put up many points or even log a lot of minutes, he is a stabilizing defensive presence and penalty killer on a defense corps that is often shaky in their own zone.  That’s why they handed him a four-year, $12MM contract last fall and it’s unlikely their opinion of him has changed much in the last nine months; he’s clearly someone that they want around for a while.  But having said that, in this cap environment, would a $3MM AAV for someone who typically plays third-pairing minutes be enough to scare Seattle off to the point where not protecting him could be viable?

That question is what they will be considering when it comes to Stanley.  The 23-year-old just made his NHL debut this season but he has been on an NHL contract for three years, making him eligible for selection.  The 2016 first-round pick (16th overall) had a limited role but blueliners often develop slower than forwards and given his size, the learning curve was a bit steeper.  If they believe he’s capable of playing himself into a more prominent role over the next couple of years, it would be tough to risk losing him for nothing.  And from Kraken GM Ron Francis’ perspective, Stanley is exactly the type of young player to either take a flyer on to develop or to flip in another trade.

Beaulieu and Niku are also worth a mention.  Beaulieu has been serviceable on the third pairing for the last few years and with a $1.25MM cap hit, he’s someone that could be picked and flipped.  Niku dominated in the AHL in 2017-18 with 54 points in 76 games and was productive in shorter stints the last couple of years.  However, he hasn’t had much of an NHL opportunity yet and is someone that has been a prime change of scenery candidate for a while.  His $725K cap hit will also be below the NHL minimum salary next season ($750K) which could also be appealing.

Up front, Little looked like someone who would likely be protected just a couple of years ago but he hasn’t played since suffering a perforated eardrum back in November of 2019.  While his injury hasn’t been confirmed to be career-ending, that could still change which could render him exempt from selection.

Their other top-six forwards that are under contract should be locks for protection and after Lowry inked a five-year, $16.25MM extension back in April, it’s a safe assumption that one of the remaining slots will be his.  That leaves one spot left and a couple of viable options in Lowry’s linemates on Winnipeg’s third line.

Copp had shown flashes of offensive improvement over the previous few seasons but took that to another level this year, setting career highs in goals (15), assists (24), points (39), and ATOI (18:15).  Whenever injuries struck, Copp was often the one to move up in the lineup while playing the wing or down the middle when needed.  That type of versatile player is critical for teams to have and while he’s set to earn a raise from his $2.3MM qualifying offer in restricted free agency this summer in his final season of arbitration eligibility, it’s a price that Winnipeg (or Seattle, if he’s ultimately made available) would happily be willing to pay.

The other part of that third trio is Appleton whose track record isn’t quite as long.  The 25-year-old was a full-time NHL player for the first time this season and he was fairly productive in a limited role, notching 12 goals and 13 assists in 56 games.  Of those 25 points, all but one came at even strength (and the one special teams point was a power play assist).  Five-on-five scoring is always highly coveted and the early indication is that Appleton is a capable contributor in that regard.  He also only has a $900K cap hit through next season and productive low-cost depth is hard to come by.  Being only able to protect one of Copp or Appleton will hurt.

Projected Protection List

F Kyle Connor
F Andrew Copp
F Pierre-Luc Dubois
F Nikolaj Ehlers
F Adam Lowry
F Mark Scheifele
F Blake Wheeler (NMC)

D Dylan DeMelo
D Josh Morrissey
D Neal Pionk

G Connor Hellebuyck

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (2): Mason Appleton, Jansen Harkins
Defensemen (2): Nathan Beaulieu, Logan Stanley

While some teams will be losing veteran talent, it certainly feels like Winnipeg will be losing one of their younger regulars as their roster currently stands.  Appleton looks like a promising late-bloomer and after being viewed as a potential bust, Stanley took an important step forward in his development this season and should be part of their future plans now.  Is that enough for Cheveldayoff to make another side deal?  He has roughly six weeks to make that decision.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Arizona Coyotes

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The offseason has arrived with roughly half of the league finished up after missing the playoffs and several more having been eliminated.  It’s time to examine what those teams need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Arizona.

2020-21 was not a great year for Arizona.  After making the playoffs last year through the bubble, they were hoping to make it two straight postseason appearances.  However, the same issues crept up as a lack of scoring proved costly.  Not surprisingly, GM Bill Armstrong is in for a very busy summer.  Here’s a look at some of the things the Coyotes should be looking to do.

Hire A Head Coach

The Coyotes have one of the four head coaching vacancies around the league after they decided to let go of Rick Tocchet after four seasons with the team.  In that stretch, they only finished in the top half of their division once while finishing no higher than 21st in goals scored.  Arizona is more of a budget team than one that will spend to the cap and it wouldn’t be surprising to see that be the case for their coaches as well.  That would seemingly take them out of the mix for most of the veteran coaches so it wouldn’t be surprising to see another first-time hire when they make their selection.

Rebuild The Back End

Arizona has had a capable veteran defense corps over the past several years but the time for change has arrived.  Alex Goligoski, Niklas Hjalmarsson, and Jason Demers are all set to become unrestricted free agents this summer, freeing up over $14MM in cap space in the process.  (Jordan Oesterle is also a UFA but his expiring cap hit of $1.4MM is a lot lower than the others and he could be brought back for a similar amount.)  While there are cases to bring Goligoski and Hjalmarsson back out of the trio, it would need to be at a much lower price tag.

This is going to be an interesting situation to follow.  If those veterans don’t return, Armstrong will need to bring in some proven replacements in a UFA market that doesn’t have a lot of them.  Of course, they can also leverage their cap space (bolstered by Marian Hossa’s contract finally expiring) to pick up a replacement in a trade.  Regardless, it looks like it will be a new-look blueline in 2021-22.

That said, the bigger question is how much they want to spend on the back end.  The Coyotes are consistently towards the bottom of the league in goals scored and this represents an opportunity to redistribute some of their money on defense up front in an effort to add a top-six forward or two.  Replacing the veterans with similarly-priced rearguards ensures that they’ll be a squad with a strong back end once again but that’s a roster composition that hasn’t worked for them lately.  If Armstrong wants to shake up the structure of the team, this is it.

Deal For Garland

Sometimes, teams can get lucky in the draft and that’s what happened with Conor Garland.  The undersized winger went unpicked in his first year of eligibility, was scooped up with a fifth-rounder by Arizona the following draft as a low-risk flier, and now, he finds himself as one of the top scorers on the Coyotes.  It has worked out great for the team so far, getting top-six production for a bargain price tag as Garland accepted a two-year low-cost bridge deal that carried a cap hit of just $775K.  As far as top bargains in the NHL go, he should have been in the conversation more than he had been.

It’s about to work out a lot better for the 25-year-old.  That bridge contract is up this summer and he’s about to become a restricted free agent with arbitration eligibility for the first time.  Along the way, he’ll be able to add several million dollars to his price tag for next season and beyond.  He’s two years away from being eligible for unrestricted free agency so if they wind up with a one-year pact and push the bigger commitment down the road, that’s not the worst outcome, especially with some questions surrounding just how much he’s worth.

It’s for that reason that Garland came up in trade speculation closer to the trade deadline where it got to the point that they were willing to move him although the right price obviously never got offered up.  Still, it suggested that Arizona may not view Garland as a long-term player to build around which makes the prospects of a long-term agreement in the coming weeks a little lower.  Accordingly, a deal could mean two different things here – a new contract, or a new team altogether.

Extension Talks

A pair of core veterans will be entering the final year of their contracts this summer and once the calendar flips to the 2021-22 campaign at the beginning of free agency, the Coyotes will be allowed to sign Darcy Kuemper and Phil Kessel to extensions.

Kuemper went from being a lower-end backup early in his career to one of the top goalies in the league after being acquired in 2018.  In each of the last two seasons, he was among the league leaders in save percentage but took a step back this season as his save percentage dipped to .907, his lowest since his final year in Minnesota.  Still, there has been much more good than bad for the 31-year-old and with Adin Hill not looking like a starter of the future (though he should be the full-time backup next season), there is a need for Kuemper to stick around a little while longer.

Meanwhile, Kessel has seen his offensive numbers plummet since joining the Coyotes but he still finished one point off the team lead in 2019-20 and led the team in points this season.  He may not be a player that can carry a line which is what they were hoping for when he was acquired in 2019 but he is still a capable, albeit streaky, scorer.  The free agent market wasn’t kind to wingers last year and it’s likely to be the case for most wingers this year as well which means he won’t have any success trying to find a deal close to his current $8MM price tag (with Pittsburgh still paying 15% of that).  If Armstrong is able to upgrade their forward group, Kessel could be in line for a rebound year which would give him a better case for a new contract a year from now.

Of the two, Kuemper seems like the likeliest to sign an early extension but Armstrong will undoubtedly be having discussions on both fronts in the months to come.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Cap information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Poll: Who Should Win The 2021 Vezina Trophy?

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Last week, the NHL released the finalists for the 2021 Vezina Trophy. The award for most outstanding goaltender is voted on by the general managers around the NHL, but let’s see what the hockey community thinks.

Marc-Andre Fleury kicked things off among the nominees, becoming a Vezina finalist for the first time in his 17-year NHL career. The highest he has previously finished is fourth, but he’ll set a new bar at age-36 after posting a .928 save percentage in 36 appearances. Fleury went 26-10 for the Vegas Golden Knights, taking home the Jennings Trophy along with Robin Lehner as the goaltenders for the team with the league’s lowest goals-against average. Among goaltenders with at least 20 starts, he trailed only Alex Nedeljkovic and Semyon Varlamov (neither of whom are finalists) in save percentage.

Next came Philipp Grubauer, almost exactly seven years Fleury’s junior. The 29-year-old has been excellent in the past as a tandem option but has never played enough to get into the Vezina conversation. That changed this year when Grubauer played 40 games for the Colorado Avalanche, posting a 30-9-1 record and .922 save percentage. He led the league in shutouts with seven and actually had a slightly lower goals-against average than Fleury (though still not as low as Nedeljkovic). For years the Avalanche goaltending was questioned, but Grubauer answered all the doubters with a legitimate Vezina-level campaign.

If either of the first-time finalists are to take home the trophy, they’ll have to topple a goaltender who lives in the final three. Andrei Vasilevskiy is a finalist for the fourth consecutive season after leading the league in wins once again. The Tampa Bay Lightning netminder won the award in 2019 and is the almost-unbreakable last line of defense behind a strong roster. While his name and pedigree will obviously make him a tough competitor in award voting, Vasilevskiy’s .925 save percentage trailed Fleury and his 2.21 goals against average was much higher than his fellow finalists.

All three goaltenders have incredible statistics and play for some of the best teams in the league. Who deserves to take home the Vezina? Cast your vote below–if you think it should have been someone else, make sure to explain why in the comment section!

Who should win the 2021 Vezina?
Marc-Andre Fleury 53.73% (1,449 votes)
Andrei Vasilevskiy 24.25% (654 votes)
Philipp Grubauer 14.79% (399 votes)
It should have been someone else 7.23% (195 votes)
Total Votes: 2,697

[Mobile users click here to vote]

Offseason Checklist: Ottawa Senators

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The offseason has arrived with roughly half of the league finished up after missing the playoffs.  It’s time to examine what those teams need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Ottawa.

Expectations were low for the Senators heading into this season.  They were still not quite ready to come out of their rebuild and not many had them as a playoff contender.  That’s how it played out in the first half as they struggled mightily at times but as the year progressed, they became a lot harder to beat as they won 10 games over their final month.  Even so, they’re unlikely to deviate much from their current course of letting their top prospects play their way into bigger roles so the to-do list isn’t overly long for GM Pierre Dorion this summer; the heavy lifting to put the final pieces in place will come a little later.

Add New Bridge Veterans

The acquisition of Derek Stepan right before training camp raised some eyebrows, especially with Ottawa paying a second-round pick to get him.  The logic felt like they’d be able to recover that pick (with retention) at the trade deadline and the team would benefit from having someone like that to work with their young forwards.  It was the same type of idea for Erik Gudbranson, only that the acquisition cost was a lot lower.  It didn’t work out quite as planned with Stepan’s torn labrum that ended his season prematurely while Gudbranson (and Braydon Coburn) fetched next to nothing at the trade deadline.

Stepan, along with Artem Anisimov and Ryan Dzingel, are set to become unrestricted free agents this summer which means their elder statesmen are Evgenii Dadonov who, at 32, has more KHL seasons than NHL seasons under his belt and Nikita Zaitsev.  These are capable veterans but when young teams talk about ‘veteran presence’ to work with the youngsters, these two aren’t the types of players that come to mind.  Both have multiple years left as well (Dadonov two years, Zaitsev three) so they would appear unlikely to be flipped at the deadline if 2021-22 is similar to this season.

With that in mind, Dorion will likely want to add this year’s versions of Stepan and Gudbranson, veterans on expiring contracts that can play a certain limited role, work with Ottawa’s young players, and then be pushed out once some of their players with AHL Belleville are ready to jump up.  The good news for the Sens is that with so many teams looking to shed money this summer, they should be able to add some useful bridge pieces for a low cost and then flip them with retention at the deadline for more than they paid to get them.

Re-Sign Tkachuk

This is the big one for them as Brady Tkachuk is set to become a restricted free agent this summer.  It’s not as if he’s a dominant offensive player – his point-per-game averages per season range from 0.62 on the low end to 0.64 on the high end which is a roughly 50-point pace over an 82-game campaign.  That alone doesn’t make him a core piece.  It’s the physicality that he brings as well.  Tkachuk has become one of the top power forwards in the game quite quickly (he’s only 21) and those are incredibly difficult to come by.  It certainly stands to reason that Dorion will want to start discussions on a max-term deal with the winger soon if he hasn’t already done so.

However, the flat-cap environment doesn’t necessarily make an eight-year contract particularly appealing to Tkachuk.  If he believes that he can take a step forward offensively over the next couple of seasons, a bridge contract looks more desirable.  Look no further than his brother Matthew Tkachuk in Calgary who is playing on a three-year, $21MM pact but remains RFA-eligible at the end of it.  For the first two years, their offensive numbers were similar and while Matthew had a much better platform campaign offensively, that can be offset somewhat by Brady’s physicality and how unique of a player he is.  If that’s the rough ballpark for a short-term deal, that would seem more desirable on the surface than committing to a long-term pact.  It’s still a significant raise but gets him arbitration eligibility at the end of it and potentially a more favorable cap environment as league revenues start to stabilize.

Cap space isn’t an issue for the Senators as they’re well below the $81.5MM Upper Limit for next season so that won’t impact these talks.  Even so, with Ottawa’s likely preference being a max-term contract and it appearing to make more sense for Tkachuk to go with a bridge, it’s going to make for a very interesting negotiation in the weeks and months to come.

Bring In Defensive Upgrades

While there is help on the back end on the horizon (Jacob Bernard-Docker, Jake Sanderson, and Lassi Thomson), none of them are ready to step into Ottawa’s lineup next season.  Bernard-Docker will need some time with Belleville, Sanderson will remain in college, and Thomson’s first AHL season wasn’t particularly strong so more time there will be needed.

That means the defense corps that was in place for most of the season remains intact and while there is one strong piece (Thomas Chabot is definitely a legitimate top-pairing player), it’s a group that’s light on high-end options and even depth.  Erik Brannstrom hasn’t progressed as they hoped when he was the centerpiece of the Mark Stone trade with Vegas and Victor Mete (a pending RFA himself) was a late-season waiver claim.  Both are young enough to still have some upside but as far as in-house improvements go, that’s about all they can count on.

Again, a serviceable veteran or two that could be flipped at the deadline when Bernard-Docker and maybe Thomson are more ready to play would work.  But even with that, a controllable top-four pickup should also be high on Dorion’s wish list.  Not all prospects pan out so one more quality addition to go along with Chabot, Zaitsev, and Artem Zub would at least bolster their core group and allow ample development time for their prospects.  The flat cap could force some quality players to be on the move and Ottawa should be willing to deal some of their future capital to make sure they get a more significant addition and if they wind up with a surplus of quality defenders down the road, that’s quite a nice ‘problem’ to have.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Cap information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Vancouver Canucks

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The offseason has arrived with roughly half of the league finished up after missing the playoffs and eight more being ousted in the first round.  It’s time to examine what those teams need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Vancouver.

The Canucks underwent several significant changes over the offseason which made them a bit of a wild card team heading into the season.  However, they didn’t get off to a good start, had injuries all season, and a rough battle with COVID-19 in between.  The end result was a seventh-place finish in the seven-team North Division.  Ownership decided to keep GM Jim Benning around and he was able to get head coach Travis Green signed to a short-term contract, taking one big item off his to-do list.  There is still a lot of work to be done, however.

Free Up Cap Space

This one is pretty self-explanatory.  Benning opted to bring in several veterans over the last few offseasons to try to bolster his roster.  While some improvements were made, it also took away from their salary cap flexibility.  They’ve been into LTIR the last couple of years and are going to be hit with another bonus overage penalty next season.  Yes, they have some contracts coming off the books but those players need to be re-signed or replaced.  That will be tricky to do without creating some more flexibility.

To that end, Benning suggested at the end of the season that he’s open to using a buyout.  However, a lot of those deals (such as Loui Eriksson’s) have a structure that makes the net cap savings minimal.  There aren’t many viable options to choose from.  That’s why it’s not too surprising that Nate Schmidt’s name has surfaced in trade speculation as of late with the veteran having four years left at a $5.95MM price tag.

Keeping the core intact is one thing but finding a way to add to it to help Vancouver take a step forward will be a significant challenge for Benning over the coming months.

Replace/Retain UFA Defensemen

Let’s look at some of those expiring contracts, particularly on the back end.  Alexander Edler has been a fixture on Vancouver’s blueline since the 2006-07 season and he has made it clear on multiple occasions that he wants to remain with the Canucks.  He’s coming off a tough season but before that, he had been a steady two-way defender.  And even though the 35-year-old struggled, he still logged more than 20 minutes a night.  He won’t cost $6MM to sign again but his role isn’t one they can fill from within just yet either.

The other pending UFA that needs to be addressed is Travis Hamonic.  A late signee in the offseason, the veteran received a no-move clause which he used to keep himself with Vancouver past the deadline as there was trade interest in him.  A capable stay-at-home defender, he’s someone that should command more than the $1.25MM he made this season if he wanted to test the open market.  He doesn’t seem to want to so another bargain contract is a possibility.

Of course, dealing with (or replacing) these two doesn’t necessarily add to their roster but it’s still something that will need to happen in the weeks ahead.

New Deals For Young Stars

Adding to the challenges of dealing with the aforementioned defensemen is that most of the money coming off the books will be needed for new contracts for their two top youngsters in defenseman Quinn Hughes and forward Elias Pettersson as both are restricted free agents this summer.

Hughes has quickly become one of the more dangerous offensive rearguards in the league.  Over his two full NHL seasons, only three defenders have more points than his 94 – Victor Hedman, John Carlson, and Roman Josi.  (Cale Makar also has 94.)  That’s impressive company to be in and it will allow the 21-year-old to potentially command a significant contract even in this environment and with just 129 career regular season games under his belt, about the equivalent of a year and a half in non-shortened campaigns.  He’s not the strongest player in his own end but offensive stats often drive negotiations and that is certainly in Hughes’ favor.  It’s worth noting that while is a restricted free agent, he doesn’t have enough service time to be eligible for an offer sheet.

As for Pettersson, his platform year was hardly an ideal one.  He got off to a tough start offensively and then missed the final two months with a wrist injury, only managing 21 points in 26 games as a result.  However, the 22-year-old still has plenty going for him.  He had two seasons of 66 points before this one, quickly becoming a fixture on the top line in the process.  Pettersson also has the ability to play down the middle and that can usually boost a players’ value as well.  Unlike Hughes, Pettersson is eligible for an offer sheet (though that’s an unlikely outcome) but also isn’t able to file for arbitration.

In a perfect world, both players would sign long-term contracts that buy out some UFA eligibility, giving the Canucks their two top youngsters for the long haul.  But doing that costs considerably more money than a shorter-term bridge contract.  Vancouver can’t afford long-term deals for both of them while dealing with their UFA blueliners and filling out the rest of their roster (which still only gets them to where they were at the end of the season and not conceivably better as a result).  One could be doable depending on what else Benning has up his sleeve so they’re going to have to choose wisely as to who gets it and who doesn’t.

Extension Talks For Boeser

While they need to deal with Hughes and Pettersson, Benning also has to keep in mind the other big-ticket deal on the horizon as winger Brock Boeser will be a restricted free agent next summer which means he will be eligible to sign a new contract once the calendar flips to the 2021-22 season.  He’ll be a year away from unrestricted free agency at that time and since his deal was signed before the new CBA, the qualifying offer is the salary of the final season which is $7.5MM, well above his current $5.875MM AAV.

Knowing that increase will be coming in a year later, Benning would be wise to see what a long-term extension would cost which shouldn’t be much more than that qualifier in this cap environment.  That type of certainty would also be useful in terms of budgeting whether or not they can afford long-term contracts for their two star RFAs.

Even if they can’t hammer out a new contract now (one of the sides may prefer to wait and see what next year brings), getting an idea of what the framework of a deal would look like would be very useful as Benning looks to map out the rest of his offseason planning.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Cap information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Los Angeles Kings

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The offseason has arrived with roughly half of the league finished up after missing the playoffs.  It’s time to examine what those teams need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Los Angeles.

The rebuild has been in full effect for the Kings lately as they’ve missed the playoffs in three straight seasons while carrying one of the lowest payrolls in the league as they attempted to integrate several young players into their lineup with mixed results.  GM Rob Blake has done well in terms of stockpiling quality young talent (particularly down the middle) but his veteran core, led by Drew Doughty, are hoping to see some win-now moves made.  With their cap flexibility closing as their young players come off their entry-level deals, the time is right for Los Angeles to try to strike and accordingly, several items on their offseason checklist revolve around that idea.

Leverage Cap Space

This will be a common theme for the few teams that have cap room.  The Kings have a little more than $20MM in space for next season and perhaps even more notably, few free agents of consequence (more on one of those later).  While they have several contracts to hand out, some of those will be of the relatively cheap variety so they will have the ability to make a splash or two if they so desire.  They’ll be a team to watch for in free agency or on the trade market as a result.

Defensive Upgrades

Doughty has been a fixture on the back end for Los Angeles for 13 years and with six years left on his contract that briefly was the richest for a defenseman in NHL history, it’s safe to say he’s going to be there for a while yet.  However, while there are some supporting pieces in place, they don’t have the deepest of back ends and the rest of their players combined basically make what Doughty does ($11MM).

Matt Roy and Sean Walker have emerged as capable pieces but while both are signed for at least three more years, they’re more ideally suited to the bottom half of the depth chart.  Michael Anderson had a nice rookie year and has top-four upside, a projection that could also be extended to Tobias Bjornfot though he is a little further away from getting there.  They should be part of the picture for a while as well.

The depth thins out after that, however.  Olli Maatta didn’t have a great year and considering he was brought in as a cap dump from Chicago, it’s unlikely that he’s part of their long-term plans.  Kale Clague heads up a list of secondary prospects that could make it as role players.

At a minimum, one impact blueliner needs to be added to push most of their current ones down a spot on the depth chart to a more optimal position.  Doughty has been a workhorse for many years now and logged more than 26 minutes a night again this season.  But he’s 31 and can’t keep doing it alone for much longer.  His request for Blake to add help is certainly understandable and he probably wouldn’t mind one bit if that help came at his position.

Determine Athanasiou’s Future

Last fall, one of the more intriguing non-tender decisions revolved around winger Andreas Athanasiou.  Edmonton had just paid two draft picks for him at the trade deadline and needed to decide whether or not to tender a $3MM offer.  They didn’t and he eventually landed in Los Angeles.  The decision point is much lower this time around – $1.2MM – but the same question exists thanks to his arbitration eligibility.

Statistically speaking, it was a decent season for the 26-year-old.  He had 10 goals and 13 assists in 47 games, good enough to finish sixth on the team in scoring.  Extrapolated to a full season, that’s not far off a 20-goal pace which for $1.2MM is solid value.  If it wasn’t for his ability to file for arbitration, this would be a no-brainer decision.

But he can file which makes things a lot harder.  Given the fact that he was making $3MM just a year ago and has a recent 30-goal season under his belt from the 2018-19 campaign, there’s a strong likelihood that his camp will come in with a proposed contract even higher than that.  Yes, it’s a different system from MLB in that an arbitrator doesn’t pick one number or the other but they often wind up close to the midpoint so even with the Kings coming in closer to the $1.5MM range, the midpoint where the deal would be more likely to fall might be higher than they’re comfortable going to.

As a result, this feels like a situation where there will need to be a concerted effort to get a deal done before the qualifying offer deadline.  Athanasiou did well enough to earn a bit of a raise even in this marketplace but after not garnering a lot of interest on the open market (it took until late December for him to get this deal just as training camps were starting), sticking around with Los Angeles seems like a good idea for him.

Add Top-Six Wingers

Despite their poor finish, the Kings are in good shape down the middle.  Anze Kopitar is still signed for three more years while Quinton Byfield, Alex Turcotte, Gabriel Vilardi, and Rasmus Kupari are all recent first-rounders.  That’s a nice core to build around.

They aren’t anywhere near as deep on the wings, however.  Alex Iafallo’s new four-year deal kicks in for 2021-22 so he’s one piece of the puzzle.  After that, there aren’t any long-term pieces.  Dustin Brown has had a bit of a late-career resurgence but he’s entering the final year of his contract next season and at 36, he’s not going to be around for much longer.  Adrian Kempe, a former center, is better suited on the third line than the top six.  The rest of their current roster are role players or question marks.

Some of the young centers may wind up on the wing and players like Arthur Kaliyev should be part of their future plans but that’s a short-term solution.  If they’re going to add and use that cap space this summer, they’ll need to go outside the organization.  Fortunately for Blake, there are options in free agency and with some teams needing to make cap-shedding trades this summer, there will be several upgrades available and it wouldn’t be surprising to see one or two of them in a Kings uniform next season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Cap information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: San Jose Sharks

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The offseason has arrived with roughly half of the league finished up after missing the playoffs and several more joining them following their first-round eliminations.  It’s time to examine what those teams need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at San Jose.

The Sharks were supposed to be a team that was set to contend.  That was the idea behind the Erik Karlsson trade three years ago and while they did that in 2018-19, they missed the playoffs entirely a year ago and weren’t much better this season.  Their veteran core struggled mightily and while they had a bit of cap space to add some mid-round picks at the deadline, they don’t have a lot of wiggle room to significantly shake up their core.  With that in mind, GM Doug Wilson’s checklist for the summer is somewhat restricted with seven of their eight highest-paid players having some form of trade protection.

Donato Decision

One thing the flattened salary cap did last offseason was increase the number of players that were non-tendered to avoid salary arbitration.  With the Upper Limit staying at $81.5MM, that’s likely to be the case again this summer.  San Jose has one of those players in winger Ryan Donato who is owed a $2.15MM qualifying offer in July.

The Sharks acquired the 25-year-old in October for a third-round pick, a reasonable price to pay for someone that has shown some flashes of being an impact NHL forward, albeit mixed in with some inconsistent play as well.  Unfortunately for Wilson, Donato provided more of the latter than the former, finishing up his year with six goals and 14 assists in 50 games while averaging 12:37 per game.

In a normal year, he’d be likely to get another opportunity given his previous stretches of being a productive top-six piece.  Give him a small raise and go from there.  But in this cap environment, it’s hard to envision Donato getting $2.15MM on the open market.  Bottom-six forwards were largely squeezed out a year ago and with teams as cap-strapped now as they were then, that’s not likely to change.

As a result, if San Jose wants to retain Donato, they need to try to work out a new deal before free agency opens up in late July.  Offer a cut in pay to see if he wants to stick around – that’s perfectly legal despite the qualifier that’s owed – with the understanding that if an agreement can’t be reached, he’ll be non-tendered.  It’s a bit of a heavy-handed approach but don’t be surprised if many other teams take a similar approach with some of their RFAs.

Add A Goalie

It was only a few years ago that Martin Jones looked like their long-term goalie of the future and his $5.75MM AAV through 2023-24 potentially being a bargain.  No one’s saying that now.  The 31-year-old posted a .896 SV% for the third straight season, a rate that is well below average for a backup let alone a starter.  All of a sudden, forget about the old thought of it being a bargain contract.  Now, Wilson may need to give serious consideration to buying him out.  If you’re curious as to what that would cost, the cap hit would range from $1.667MM to $2.917MM over each of the next six seasons.  That’s a steep price to pay but it would give them a bit of space to try to add a better option.

Even if they don’t buy him out, the Sharks need to add another goalie, preferably a starter instead of another reclamation project.  Josef Korenar had some good moments in his first taste of NHL action but he has another year of waiver exemption; he needs to be playing as much as possible in the minors and he’s not ready to push for full-time NHL duty just yet.  As is often the case, there are quite a few goalies available in free agency and the trade market could feature a few more options than usual.  They should be able to nab a reasonably-priced option and with the struggles they’ve had between the pipes lately, the right choice could yield a few more wins in the standings on their own.

Extension Talks For Hertl

If you were curious as to which of their eight highest-paid players doesn’t have any trade protection, it’s Tomas Hertl.   He will be entering the final year of his contract next season so when free agency begins and the calendar flips to the 2021-22 season, the 27-year-old will be eligible to sign a contract extension.

While many of the top players in San Jose underachieved offensively this season, Hertl was one of the exceptions.  He finished second on the team in scoring to Evander Kane and had he been healthy and played in all 56 games, he might have got the top spot.  Nevertheless, his 19 goals and 24 assists in 50 games was good enough for the second-highest point per game average of his career, a pretty good showing.

When Hertl signed a four-year, $22.5MM deal back in the 2018 offseason, it looked like it might be a bit high considering he had only reached the 20-goal mark twice and never had more than 46 points in a season.  Since then, however, he has certainly lived up to the deal, picking up 153 points in 170 games, well above a 46-point pace over a full regular season.

With that in mind, it’s likely that Hertl’s camp will be seeking an increase on his next contract, even with wingers taking a hit in free agency last summer in a marketplace that is likely to be more restrictive than usual for the next few years.  Wilson will have to decide if the time is right to do that or to let the season play out first.  One thing he can dangle now that he can’t next fall?  He can offer to put in trade protection into the final season of his existing contract as he’s now old enough to have that protection in his deal (only UFA-eligible players can have it).  Maybe he won’t be the only highly-paid player without that for much longer.

Redirect Cap Spending To Offense

The Sharks have been in the bottom ten in scoring in each of the last two seasons.  Part of the reason for that is that they’ve dedicated a lot of money away from the forwards.  By the time they round out their roster for next season, it’s going to be close to a 50/50 split in terms of money on forwards versus goalies and defensemen.  It’s hard to improve offensively with that much money tied up in non-forwards.

Granted, Karlsson and Brent Burns are supposed to help carry the load offensively but that simply wasn’t the case this season.  Add a slumping Marc-Edouard Vlasic to the mix and their big three on the back end counts for $26.5MM without much production from that group.  In a perfect world, they could get out of one of those contracts which all run through at least 2024-25 but their high price tags and trade protection make that extremely difficult.

One smaller move they could try to make to add some money to the pot for their forwards is to move out Radim Simek.  His four-year, $9MM contract is hardly excessive in terms of cost but he has had difficulty staying healthy and had a limited role when he did play this season.  Finding a new team for him would give Wilson a little bit more room to try to add up front which, with their veteran defenders slowly down offensively, will be needed if they want to have a chance at working their way back into playoff contention.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Cap information courtesy of CapFriendly.

PHR Mailbag: Cup Prediction, Georgiev, Messier, Eichel, Prospects, Mock Draft

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include a prediction of the Stanley Cup winner, Alexandar Georgiev’s future with the Rangers, a thought on Mark Messier in New York, Jack Eichel trade talk, power forward prospects, and an early mock draft.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check for it in last weekend’s mailbag.

lapcheung39: Do you see Tampa Bay will repeat as champion this year; if not, who do you see as a dark horse to win it all?

First, that was quite an entertaining series they had against Florida.  The fact that the Lightning played well against a team that really mixed it up physically bodes well for them, a team that is tacitly viewed as more of a finesse group.  However, even though I see them squeaking by Carolina in the second round, I don’t think they’re the favorite to win the Stanley Cup.

I suspect I’m hardly the only one in this camp but whoever wins the Colorado-Vegas series is my pick to win it all.  Those two teams are in win-now mode with rosters that don’t have many flaws and they know that their best chance is now with the flat cap and pending free agents.  (I know Tampa Bay is in a similar boat as well.)  I have the Avalanche getting through the Golden Knights so they’d be my pick.  I know that’s hardly a dark horse but I don’t think there is one.

CoachWall: Any chance the Rangers include Georgiev in a trade for a center and bring “The King” back to mentor/back up Igor? It would give Henry a way to get a proper send-off before #30 takes its rightful place in the rafters.

Let’s address a quick CBA note here in that there is nothing preventing New York from doing this if they wanted to.  Players that are bought out can sign back with the team that bought them out (Calgary’s Michael Stone being the most recent example).

But even though they can, I don’t think they want to do that, nor should they.  If the inclusion of Georgiev helps land an impact center, that’d be great.  I don’t think he carries enough value to be a key piece of such a trade but in a bigger deal, I could see him being included.

But that doesn’t mean Lundqvist should be the target.  He hasn’t played this season after undergoing open-heart surgery which means he will have gone about 14 months between game action between the bubble and the start of next year.  It’s also important to remember that his numbers in his final season with New York weren’t particularly great and were below average for a backup.

I agree that Igor Shesterkin could benefit from a veteran backup who can help mentor him but the Rangers need someone that’s a little more reliable and doesn’t come with as many question marks in terms of health.  For as talented as Shesterkin is, he has all of 48 career NHL games under his belt and we appear to be heading for an 82-game season in 2021-22.  If I’m GM Chris Drury, I’m looking for someone that I’m comfortable handing 35-40 starts to next season.  It’d make for a fantastic story but I don’t think that Lundqvist can handle that workload at the age of 39, at least to the point of giving them above-average backup goaltending.

The good news is that a lot of the other veteran free agent goalies out there should be able to handle that type of action so if they do move Georgiev this summer, there will be several viable options to turn to.

@flaguy12: Any chance if the Rangers interviewing Mark Messier for their head coaching job?

Is there a chance they’re interviewing Messier?  Sure.  I’d even go as far as saying they’re likely to talk to him considering his comments earlier this month when he said he was “standing by ready to help out” following the firings of Jeff Gorton and John Davidson.  But as a head coach?  I’d be shocked.

Messier dabbled in coaching a decade ago, heading up Canada’s entries into the Deutschland and Spengler Cups.  He also has a couple of stints as an assistant coach with peewee teams.  That’s the extent of his coaching background.  That’s not enough to make him a credible candidate to be an NHL coach, let alone a head coach.

If they do speak with Messier, I wouldn’t be surprised if a role similar to the Senior Advisor post he held a decade ago with the team.  If he had any intention of being in a full-time NHL role somewhere, his name would have popped up for opportunities somewhere over the past several years.  Accordingly, a part-time role makes more sense for him which would be as an advisor or some sort of player development coach.

sabres3277: Do you believe that the Sabres will trade Eichel? If so, what team would be the best landing spot to bring the Sabres the best return? And what kind of return are the Sabres looking at?

It has been a tough stretch in Buffalo for the past several years and to be honest, I don’t see a lot of hope on the horizon for them.  That’s not at all a shot at Jack Eichel either but the supporting cast isn’t good enough and the rotating door of coaches and general managers doesn’t help either.  He’s one more season away from having the ability to veto a move when his no-move clause kicks in.  I don’t get the sense he’s going to be happier with the Sabres a year from now, especially with the current issue of wanting surgery that the team won’t sign off on.  Even with that lingering procedure, it certainly feels as if they have a better shot at getting more for him this summer than next offseason when he can limit the market.  Accordingly, I do believe that Eichel will be on the move.

I don’t know how willing the Kings are to commit to three players making at least $10MM on their payroll when they’re a non-playoff team but on paper, they match up well.  Buffalo needs a top young center in a trade.  Los Angeles has Quinton Byfield, Alex Turcotte, and Gabriel Vilardi as recent first-round picks.  They don’t have extra first-round picks but have extra picks in the next two rounds this summer which makes it a bit easier to part with their top selection.  They also have ample cap space which means they don’t have to match money.  That’s a strong foundation of a deal right there.

The Rangers have been long speculated as a landing spot but their package would have to be based on young defensemen more than a center as part of the reason New York would be in the hunt here is that youngsters like Filip Chytil and Brett Howden haven’t established themselves as top-six fits.  I don’t know if the fit is as good and it’s a deal where money would need to be matched beyond the inclusion of Ryan Strome.  I’ll toss in a dark horse team as well, the Blue Jackets.  If Buffalo really likes one of Joonas Korpisalo or Elvis Merzlikins and that goalie is willing to sign, that could give them their starter for the foreseeable future, a core piece.  They have three first-round picks at their disposal and could add someone like Max Domi to give him another fresh start although they don’t need to match money either.  There are some pieces to work with for an offer there.

I can see this being a four or five-piece package.  A young core player that’s either signed long-term or under team control for four or five years (Eichel has five years left on his deal).  There needs to be a top prospect in there and probably a first-round pick or comparable prospect.  The rest will be taking a player or two back for cap purposes.  That’s a higher price than Ryan O’Reilly but Eichel is in a higher tier.  O’Reilly is quite good but Eichel is a franchise player.  They need to demand a huge return and even in a flat-cap market, they should be able to get it.

Pieters: Which prospects would have the best chance of being the next Brady Tkachuk (i.e., scoring forward that’s not afraid to mix it up)?

That’s a very rare combination to try to match which is part of the reason Tkachuk went as high as he did (fourth overall in 2016).  There frankly hasn’t been one like him since then which makes this rather challenging to answer.

I think players like Matt Boldy (MIN) and Samuel Poulin (PIT) could fit the bill offensively.  Boldy hasn’t had a chance to throw his weight around much in college but I think as he fills out, he’ll have a bigger willingness to get engaged physically.  I’m not sure that means he’ll drop the gloves a ton but there should be a physicality element in time and he should score enough to be in the top six.  Poulin has shown the offensive skill in junior that could translate to the pros but he already is a particularly physical player and undoubtedly will be highly valued by Pittsburgh’s new management team.  If he puts it all together, he could fit that bill.

One other wildcard that comes to mind is Jake Neighbours (STL).  I’m not convinced that his offensive ceiling is as high as Tkachuk’s but he could be a 15-20-goal player that drops the gloves from time to time while being able to mix it up in the corners.

If you’re looking at this and thinking that none of these players are like Tkachuk, you’re right.  They’re not.  But part of what makes Tkachuk or any other power forward of that ilk (think Milan Lucic and Wayne Simmonds in their primes) is that the combination of physicality and offensive skill is so hard to get; they don’t come around often.  There are players with similar offensive games but don’t throw their weight around as much.  There are more players willing to engage in the corners and play rough but lack the offensive upside to play in the top six.  Rarely do you see both in the same player.

Tkachuk may not have the overall offensive upside as some of the others that went behind him in that draft but with everything else he brings to the table, the Sens believed he’d be more valuable.  That belief has been rewarded so far.

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Offseason Checklist: Detroit Red Wings

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The offseason has arrived with roughly half of the league finished up after missing the playoffs.  It’s time to examine what those teams need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Detroit.

The rebuild continues for the Red Wings which shouldn’t come as much of a surprise with how their roster was structured coming into the season.  They’re playing the long game and have amassed a quality group of prospects that will be added to this summer with a dozen draft picks including five in the first two rounds.  GM Steve Yzerman has already checked off one major item from his checklist with the decision to retain head coach Jeff Blashill (though they will need to replace Dan Bylsma behind the bench) but he still has a lot of work to do.

Rebuild The Back End

There’s no denying that Detroit has plenty of cap and roster flexibility, especially on the back end where a grand total of two regulars are under contract for next season in Danny DeKeyser and Troy Stecher.  Of those, it’s worth noting that DeKeyser cleared waivers and would almost certainly do so again next year.  There’s a lot of work to be done here.

Filip Hronek is the top restricted free agent out of the group and very quietly led the Red Wings in scoring this season with 26 points while logging over 23 minutes a game for the second straight year.  He isn’t eligible for salary arbitration as he’s coming off his entry-level deal but that won’t stop him from landing a significant raise.  Even with a bridge deal, he should be able to at least quadruple his $714K price tag while a contract that buys out UFA years would be substantially higher and should put him ahead of DeKeyser’s AAV.  Dennis Cholowski and Gustav Lindstrom have a bit of upside but project as role players at this point.  So too are veterans Marc Staal and Alex Biega, both set to become unrestricted free agents; Hronek is the only core piece of the bunch and it’s a core that isn’t very deep.

There is definitely room for multiple additions in their top four defensively and that’s not even considering top prospect Moritz Seider who is ready to make the jump to the NHL.  Detroit has been cautious in their player development so it’s unlikely he’ll get heavy minutes right away.  It’s unlikely that they will be a prime free agent destination so Yzerman may need to do what he did a year ago with Staal and leverage their cap room – they have less than $33MM on the books for next season – to add some pieces.  A willingness to add someone with term on their deal this time around might be a better way to go than another rental.

Detroit isn’t ready to become a contender next season so this isn’t something that has to all be done this summer but bringing in another building block or two to shore things up would be a welcome step in the right direction.

Re-Sign Key RFA Wingers

There is a long list of forwards that are in need of new deals but there are two that certainly stand out among the group in wingers Tyler Bertuzzi and Jakub Vrana.  Both players are eligible for salary arbitration so if they want to avoid a hearing, they’ll be trying to work out new deals by August (assuming the players file by the deadline).

Bertuzzi’s case is going to be an intriguing one.  Coming into the season, he was coming off a career year offensively despite the pandemic-shortened 2019-20 campaign and had two straight seasons of 21 goals and at least 47 points.  The expectation coming into the year was that he’d be able to take another step forward this season.  He looked to be on his way to doing so with five goals and seven points in nine January games but those wound up being his only games.  While he initially wasn’t expected to miss the rest of the year, that eventually became the case and he underwent back surgery at the end of April.  Bertuzzi, now 26, is a year away from UFA eligibility and while his platform year ended in disappointment, he’ll still carry some leverage knowing that he can force another one-year deal and hit the open market a year from now.  He’ll be owed a qualifying offer of $3.5MM but expect Detroit to go considerably higher and try to buy out some UFA eligibility.

As for Vrana, he was the key piece coming back in the deadline deal that saw Anthony Mantha head to Washington.  While the 25-year-old underwhelmed with the Capitals, that changed following the move.  His playing time jumped by nearly three minutes a night while he produced at a point per game pace, collecting eight goals and three assists in 11 games.  That’s certainly a small sample size and no one should be expecting that to continue but it pushed his numbers to a level comparable to his career year in 2019-20 once you extrapolate for the shortened season.  His qualifying offer is actually a bit lower than his AAV based on the structure of the deal but Vrana will certainly earn more than the $3MM they’re required to offer.  He’s two years away from unrestricted free agency so the two sides could agree to a one-year pact that allows for more evaluation while keeping him RFA-eligible after that.  Alternatively, if Yzerman feels that Vrana is a top-six fixture for the foreseeable future, a long-term contract now would make sense.

Add A Starting Goalie

Goaltending has been an issue for the Red Wings for several years now.  Jimmy Howard had a good run as a starter but by the end of his playing days, he wasn’t a legitimate starter.  Jonathan Bernier has done relatively well considering the weaker team in front of him but he isn’t a number one either.  Neither is Thomas Greiss who they signed in free agency last offseason.  That allowed them to basically run a platoon of decent veterans which was fine for a season when they weren’t opting to contend but it hasn’t exactly set up them for their post-rebuild either.

Last year, it was Howard’s free agency that created an opening between the crease and this time, it’s Bernier in that situation.  He seemed like a probable candidate to move at the trade deadline but there wasn’t much of a market and he wound up staying put.  Now, Yzerman has to decide whether or not he wants to keep Bernier and run with the platoon again or look to try to bring in more of a long-term piece.  If the expectation is that they won’t be a playoff contender next year, keeping the status quo would make some sense in principle while allowing them the ability to potentially trade a rental a year from now (Greiss will be in the final year of his contract in 21-22).

However, a starting goalie isn’t something a team should be searching for on an annual basis.  At some point, a more permanent solution needs to be brought in and it’s probably not coming from their prospect pool.  It’s not a great year for proven starters in free agency but there are upgrades available there while the looking Seattle expansion could result in some more activity on the trade market than usual.  Yzerman will need to determine if this is the time to make a goalie splash or punt on the decision for another year.

Add Top-Six Forwards

The list of teams that scored fewer goals than Detroit this season begins with Anaheim and also ends with Anaheim.  With Bertuzzi, Vrana, and Dylan Larkin, they have three capable top-six forwards but the depth starts to slide after that.  Filip Zadina has some upside still and Robby Fabbri was quietly productive in limited action but they’re not ready to be top-six players on a contender just yet.

To help get them to playoff contender status, they need to bring in multiple players that can play in the top six, preferably a winger and a center.  The good news is that there are quality UFA wingers available that may require an overpayment in terms of money to bring in but they have ample cap space and can afford to overpay to maintain their prospect and draft pick capital.  The bad news is that the same can’t be said for centers.  Filling that void will require some creativity.

Last offseason, Detroit used their cap space to take on Staal and add a second-round pick for their troubles.  A similar approach could be taken here to both improve their roster as well as keep adding to their stockpile for the future.  Yzerman has built up the forward depth since taking over in Detroit and now it’s getting closer to being time to make a bigger splash.  This summer, one that should have a lot of player movement, looks like a good place to start improving on that front.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Cap information courtesy of CapFriendly.

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