PHR Mailbag: Kraken, MacKinnon, Entry Draft, Sharks Goaltending, Kings, Centers, Guentzel, Devils, Kuznetsov, Predators
Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the upcoming expansion draft, Nathan MacKinnon’s future, some Entry Draft predictions, and much more. If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.
Nha Trang: Crystal Ball #2: Is Ron Francis’ intent in Seattle to emulate Vegas and win now, or to put together a team that’ll contend 2-3 years from now?
I suspect Francis is looking ahead a few years but to be fair, I don’t think the Golden Knights went into the process expecting to make a long playoff run in their first season either. With who all was left unprotected, Seattle could assemble a roster that could make a real run at a playoff spot but they should be looking to accumulate some picks and prospects more than trying to get into the postseason right away.
The way to do that will be to pick some players that can be flipped for value. Last time, Vegas took some veteran defensemen that went for late picks which is fine (Seattle will probably do the same with a few picks) but there are some top-six forwards available that other teams will part with quality assets to get. For example, if Tampa Bay doesn’t pay the high price to entice them to take Tyler Johnson, then take and flip Ondrej Palat who, as a rental, will yield a nice return. Same with Calgary and Mark Giordano. I’m sure they’ll get some picks for taking on certain contracts as well but moving one or two of their better selections would be a way to differentiate themselves from Vegas and build for the future.
Shjon: How active and/or successful do you think Francis will be during the free agent interview period between the 18th and 21st?
I suspect they’ll be extremely active in terms of speaking with UFAs. They’ll talk to dozens of them if they can. They get an opportunity to learn about a bunch of asking prices and if I were them, I’d try to get a couple of agreements in principle in place without actually selecting that player just to add as many assets as possible.
If you define success by how many they actually sign, I’d say they won’t be successful. Other than Chris Driedger who is the expected selection with a sign and select agreement, I don’t know if they really need to sign anyone else. They’ll be successful in terms of knowing more about what the UFA market will look like than any other team. But if they sign a bunch of players, I wouldn’t call it a success in that they will be giving up the opportunity to add other pieces as well. Fill out the roster with signed players and RFAs to build up the asset base, then supplement it with free agents at the end of the month.
Y2KAK: Who would be the most realistic player going to Seattle? Oshie? Tyler Johnson?
There aren’t many ‘obvious’ selections to make a list of realistic if not likely picks. Giordano from the Flames seems like the logical selection as someone that could be flipped but Calgary may want to pay to keep him around. I’d like to put Vince Dunn as a realistic choice as a young defenseman with some offensive pop that’s under team control for a while but Vladimir Tarasenko has to be tempting in terms of trying to improve his value and then flipping him later.
I’ll go with Driedger just with how long he’s been linked to them but if they decide they want to take Carey Price (I don’t think they will, especially with the injury questions now), even Driedger wouldn’t be a certainty as Seattle may not want to tie up that much money between the pipes. That’s one of the really intriguing elements of this draft is just how many viable ways Seattle can go here. Each writer here at PHR will be picking a mock team and I expect there will be plenty of varying opinions.
M34: MacKinnon has publicly stated he would take a “cheaper” deal again next time he is up. At that point in his career, and the MVP-caliber status/production, what is his market value? What kind of “lesser” deal is he willing to sign? Will it make a difference whether or not Colorado wins a Cup between now and then?
Assuming that Connor McDavid’s $12.5MM remains the top bar as it should be, Nathan MacKinnon’s market value should settle in a little below that in the $11.5MM to $12MM range. John Tavares is basically the only comparable top center to actually sign recently via unrestricted free agency and he signed for $11MM. MacKinnon is the better player so $11MM becomes the minimum bar to clear if he gets to the open market. He’ll be 27 at the time of his free agency (turning 28 before the 2023-24 season starts) and still in the prime of his career so while that’s undoubtedly a high price tag, it’d be justifiable for teams to throw it at him.
A hometown discount is always tough to peg for superstar players. It’s not as if the player can accept a lower AAV for a longer-term deal like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins did; MacKinnon is getting the max (eight years from Colorado, seven from everyone else). And even in this cap environment, there will be enough teams willing to throw that type of money at him. Would he take a million less per year than market value? Maybe but it’d be hard to see the discount being much more than that.
I don’t think it will make much of a difference if they’ve won the Stanley Cup between now and then. For me, it’s a question of being contenders. Is Colorado still going to be a consistent threat in the West two years from now? If the answer to that question is yes (and it should be), then that’s the bigger priority over already having won one.
The Mistake of Giving Eugene Melnyk a Liver Transplant: It sounds like almost all draft prospects plan to return to their current teams next year. Are there any notable players who would possibly try the NHL or AHL next year? Also, how much of this is COVID-19 related, as this certainly seems higher than normal?
There are usually only a handful of draft picks to make the jump each year, including the top selection; Mike Modano was the last to not go to the NHL right away and that was in 1988. With this being a lost development year for a lot of prospects, it’s not shocking that some of the expected top picks are planning on staying where they are for another year and in most cases, I think whoever drafts them would be fine with it. (I think Buffalo would rather Owen Power turn pro right away so we’ll see if they can make that happen assuming he does indeed go number one.) Generally speaking, a lot of this should be attributed to COVID-19.
As for trying the AHL, I don’t expect any of the European prospects to try that league while most American prospects will be committed to the college route. Those are the ones that are eligible to go to that league as anyone picked from the CHL is restricted from joining the AHL until they turn 20 or have four years of service time.
rogueraceseries: Thank you for fielding questions! My head-scratcher is this…. What 2021 draft-eligible prospect will make the biggest leap/splash in this year’s draft? Like Seider jumping to #6 two years ago. Conversely, what player do you think will drop the most? Maybe Caufield as an example (he has had the last laugh this playoff run, hasn’t he? #nhlerstud)
Mason McTavish really seems to be flying up the rankings lately. A few months ago, he seemed to be at the back of the lottery but all of a sudden, a top-five selection doesn’t appear to be out of the question. I’ll also toss Sebastian Cossa out as a possibility. Are there teams that value him higher than Jesper Wallstedt? If so, he could go a fair bit higher than where most would expect (which, at this point, is probably in the late teens/early twenties). Two Russians in Danill Chayka and Nikita Chibrikov are other candidates. Some have them in the second round but if there’s a team that’s sold on his upside, they could land in the teens.
As for who drops, my usual picks for this question each year tend to get picked earlier than normal; the crystal ball doesn’t seem to work well for this one. I’ll go with Aatu Raty. Once viewed as a possible top-five pick, his value has dropped considerably. Some have him in the teens but it wouldn’t shock me if he slides closer to the back of the first round.
Cheechoo56: Assuming we are to believe Doug Wilson’s saying the Sharks are retooling and not rebuilding, are there any free agent goalkeepers that make sense in San Jose (given a potential buyout for Martin Jones and their cap situation)?
It’s not a great year for true number one goalies in free agency and that’s what San Jose really needs. Philipp Grubauer is the top name out there but his career high in games played is 40. Whether it’s retooling or rebuilding, the Sharks don’t need someone in their 30s already. Someone with an opportunity to be around for a few years would be preferable.
If it’s not Grubauer, I’d be looking at Linus Ullmark. Ullmark has struggled to secure the starting role in Buffalo but San Jose’s back end is a whole different animal. Perhaps a change of scenery gives him a bit of a boost and if that happens, San Jose would have goaltending that probably checks in just above the league average. They’d take that in a heartbeat.
Adin Hill is going to be part of the equation now as well but I don’t think he’s ready to be a starter yet or even the 1A guy in a platoon. They’re still going to need a more proven starter and Jones isn’t it. I’m not convinced Ullmark will be either but that tandem would certainly put them in the right direction.
Rene vandervelden: Who is a better trade target for the Kings, Jack Eichel or Vladimir Tarasenko?
I’ll go with Tarasenko. The Kings aren’t really in a spot where they should be parting with a bunch of top young talent to try to win now. I know that’s what their veteran core wants but it’s not the smart move. Anze Kopitar is already at $10MM and adding another center at that price point may not be the wisest decision which sours me on Eichel as a fit. I’m not opposed to the idea of them dealing away one of their many young pivots but not for him.
What I like about Tarasenko is that his trade value shouldn’t be all that high. He wants out, he has had shoulder trouble the last few years, and his contract at $7.5MM is too expensive for most teams to absorb. The Kings can take on that deal without offsets which gives them a leg up. Is there a risk to Tarasenko? Absolutely. But there’s also the potential for a high reward and at what would appear to be a below-market acquisition cost, there’s a chance for them to upgrade the roster without losing key parts of the future. That’s the sweet spot I’m looking for if I’m GM Rob Blake.
@FritzLiebich: Are the LA Kings ready to contend or are they 2-3 players away? Who should the Kings target by way of UFA or trade?
There is an opportunity for Los Angeles to be a playoff contender next season but by that, I mean a team that’s in a battle for a Wild Card spot. That’s not really true contention and it’s why I just advocated against making a big splash on the trade market with Eichel. But I do like the idea of them trying to add and the Viktor Arvidsson pickup certainly made sense.
I’d be looking for veteran bridge players if I was Blake, players that can upgrade the roster now but also be expendable in a trade if one of their many young prospects is ready for a bigger role. That means players on short-term contracts unless they’re adding someone that they think could still be a quality contributor a few years from now.
They could go for a free agent but I like the trade route better. Many teams are looking to dump contracts which means there will be opportunities to add roster upgrades at below-market costs such as Tarasenko above. Target Tampa Bay as they have several pricey veterans that need to be moved for cap reasons; they can’t command full value. As an example, Alex Killorn would be another nice addition on the wing. The Islanders may want to shed some money based on who they left unprotected. Jordan Eberle’s contract is a bit long for my liking (three more years) but would fill a positional need. They’re not getting these types of players for free but they won’t be paying a premium either and won’t have to sign someone to a longer-term contract that wouldn’t be advisable based on where they are. They’d improve the team and not mortgage the future in terms of assets or cap flexibility.
Offseason Checklist: Colorado Avalanche
The offseason is in full flight with the draft and free agency fast approaching. We continue our series which examines what each team needs to accomplish over the coming weeks and months. Next up is a look at Colorado.
This was a season that some felt might be Colorado’s best time to take a run at the Stanley Cup with some core players on team-friendly contracts, allowing them the flexibility to add Brandon Saad last offseason. However, things didn’t go as planned as they were eliminated by Vegas in the second round. Now, GM Joe Sakic has considerable cap room at his disposal but several key players in need of new deals. Accordingly, Colorado’s checklist this summer revolves primarily around those pending free agents.
Re-Sign Makar
Before digging into the notable UFAs, let’s look at the big RFA first. Makar has been an impact player since joining the Avs for the 2019 playoffs where he left college and played a regular role right away. From there, he has become one of the most dynamic offensive threats in the league from the back end and was the runner up in Norris Trophy voting while recording 44 points in 44 games this past season.
Generally speaking, players that don’t have the longest of track records typically can’t command the long-term, big-money contract. Makar technically falls into this category as two abbreviated regular seasons have left him with just 101 regular season contests under his belt, roughly a year and a quarter of a full 82-game campaign. However, how much more does he really have to prove at this point? He’s already a premier talent and that’s not going to change.
Accordingly, Makar should be one of the exceptions to the rule in that someone with that few games played can command a long-term deal if he wants one (which isn’t a guarantee with the current cap landscape). There aren’t many comparable players to work from but Ottawa’s Thomas Chabot had inked the richest post-entry-level contract by a defenseman at eight years and $64MM. That just changed with the eight-year, $67.6MM deal that Dallas gave to Miro Heiskanen on Saturday. If he gets a max-term contract, his agent will undoubtedly be working off the templates of these two deals.
Sign A Starting Goalie
Three goalies posted a goals against average below two in 2020-21. One won the Vezina, one played a dominant half-season in Carolina, and the other is Philipp Grubauer whose timing for such a season was perfect as he’s set to hit the open market later this month. He now stands atop the free agent class for goaltenders which has him well-positioned for a substantial raise on the $3.33MM AAV he had on his most recent contract. Considering some of the goalies that have signed in recent years such as Matt Murray, Jordan Binnington, and Jacob Markstrom, Grubauer has a legitimate chance of doubling his previous price tag despite never playing more than 40 games in a season, a mark he reached this year for the first time.
One question for Colorado is can they afford to pay their starter that much knowing they need to save big money for Makar’s deal, the fact they have another key UFA to bring back (more on him shortly), and have Nathan MacKinnon up for a lucrative new contract two years from now. They can only afford so many big-ticket deals on the books.
However, can they afford to not bring Grubauer back? There is plenty of uncertainty with backup Pavel Francouz who missed the entire season due to a lower-body injury and it’s not as if he’s particularly proven in the NHL with all of 36 career NHL regular season contests. They need a proven starter and while Grubauer doesn’t have the longest track record, it’s a better one than any of the other viable free agents out there. They don’t need elite-level goaltending with the caliber of the team in front of him and keeping Grubauer around would give them some long-term stability between the pipes.
If they can’t agree to terms with him, the plan may shift to trying a short-term platoon and there are enough veterans available to make this an option. It’s not a long-term solution though and shouldn’t be their primary plan heading into free agency while the trade market could yield some more intriguing options at a higher acquisition cost. This will need to be addressed quickly as it’s hard to see any viable options left by the time the calendar flips to August.
Re-Sign Or Replace Landeskog
Onto the other significant pending UFA. Gabriel Landeskog has been a fixture in Colorado’s lineup for the last decade after being the second-overall pick in 2011. He has spent the majority of his time on their top line and has been on a bargain contract throughout his career as after his entry-level deal expired, he played on a seven-year deal with a $5.571MM cap hit which is certainly below market value for a top liner. The captain has made it clear that he wants to stay and has even publicly voiced his frustration over the fact a deal isn’t done.
So what’s the holdup? Salary is one thing – he’s heading for a raise in Colorado or elsewhere despite the reported recent offers from the Avs – but speculatively, I think the term of a new deal may be the bigger issue in discussions. Yes, Landeskog is only 28 but with over 700 career games played (regular season and playoffs), that’s a fair bit of mileage. He also plays a rugged style, one that doesn’t necessarily tend to age well which adds a layer of risk to any deal that approaches the eight-year maximum which is why the reported eight-year offer from the Avalanche to Landeskog is as low as it is. Is there a happy medium that takes a year or two off the term of the contract but keeps it at an affordable price point for the team? Having that option could very well push things along.
If they can’t work out an agreement, that’s a big hole for the Avalanche to fill. Re-signing Saad becomes a more viable option but if not, they could be a player in free agency to try to find someone to step onto the top line. But there are still nearly two weeks before Landeskog gets to the open market. It’s hard to see Colorado giving up on the prospect of re-signing their captain until he puts pen to paper elsewhere.
Center Decisions
With MacKinnon in place, there are no questions about their top center. J.T. Compher is still in the mix for now although we’ll see what happens with him being made available to Seattle. Things could change fairly quickly after that, however.
Nazem Kadri is coming off another quality season on the second line and is signed for this season with a $4.5MM price tag before becoming an unrestricted free agent next summer. Of course, the question stems from what happened in the playoffs when he received an eight-game suspension for an illegal check to the head on Blues defenseman Justin Faulk. It wasn’t his first notable incident either and the number of games per suspension is going up from here. Is Colorado prepared to move forward with him or will they be better off trying someone else who could be a longer-term option in that role?
Then there’s Tyson Jost. He was the tenth-overall pick in 2016 but he hasn’t been able to establish himself as more than a role player. He’s arbitration-eligible for the first time this summer after accepting his qualifying offer in the fall but his projected role hasn’t changed as he’s still a bottom-six option. Now 23, is he someone that would be better suited with a change of scenery? They’d be selling low but another year like his last few would send Jost’s value even lower.
There’s also Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, their fourth-line pivot for the last two years who is set to be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the month. He isn’t a major point producer but has been a fixture on their penalty kill and well above average at the faceoff dot. He’s also 36 and clearly not in anyone’s long-term plans. Is that spot better suited for someone closer to the league minimum or someone younger? At this point, it seems like he won’t be back.
Sakic will have some decisions to make about his middlemen in the coming weeks. The end result could be a group that’s a fair bit different than the one that finished up the season.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Pro Hockey Rumors 2021 Expansion Draft Primers
The 2021 NHL Expansion Draft process is upon us. Rosters are frozen, protection lists are submitted, and in under 24 hours the full list of players available to the Seattle Kraken will be known ahead of Wednesday’s draft. Over the past month, Pro Hockey Rumors has previewed how the expansion process could shake out for each of the 30 teams participating, including predicting protection lists and identifying potential Kraken targets. While many of these scenarios have changed in the weeks since, capped off by a flurry of activity today, many also remain intact. As the protection list details continue to trickle in, catch up with the key decisions that each team faced in preparing for this league-altering event:
Anaheim Ducks
Arizona Coyotes
Boston Bruins
Buffalo Sabres
Calgary Flames
Carolina Hurricanes
Chicago Blackhawks
Colorado Avalanche
Columbus Blue Jackets
Dallas Stars
Detroit Red Wings
Edmonton Oilers
Florida Panthers
Los Angeles Kings
Minnesota Wild
Montreal Canadiens
Nashville Predators
New Jersey Devils
New York Islanders
New York Rangers
Ottawa Senators
Philadelphia Flyers
Pittsburgh Penguins
San Jose Sharks
St. Louis Blues
Tampa Bay Lightning
Toronto Maple Leafs
Vancouver Canucks
Vegas Golden Knights – exempt
Washington Capitals
Winnipeg Jets
Free Agent Focus: San Jose Sharks
Free agency is now just a few weeks away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up. There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. It’s been nothing but pain in San Jose the last few years as they try and navigate huge contracts to aging stars.
Key Restricted Free Agents
F Ryan Donato – Donato has failed to live up to expectations for three different NHL teams now, following his first year in San Jose. The Harvard product that set the hockey world on fire in 2018, scoring three points in his first game and nine in his first twelve now has just 77 in 180 career matches. In 50 games with the Sharks this season he scored six times and registered 20 points despite ample powerplay time and relatively easy deployment. He’s clearly an NHL talent, but it doesn’t look like Donato is ever going to be the consistent top-six contributor that many expected coming out of college. An arbitration-eligible free agent coming off a $1.9MM cap hit, there’s actually a chance he doesn’t even get qualified by the Sharks.
F Rudolfs Balcers – Balcers on the other hand will, even after registering just eight goals and 17 points in 41 games. The key part of Balcers game is his ability to contribute defensively as well as in the offensive zone, and he was rewarded with increased playing time down the stretch. In fact, Balcers had all but replaced other more recognizable names like Kevin Labanc by the end of the year, even moving ahead of Timo Meier on some nights. It seems likely that the Sharks will explore a multi-year deal with the young forward, if only to lock him in at a low number before giving him a bigger role on the team. If not, he is also arbitration-eligible but doesn’t have the counting stats to earn a huge raise through that process.
Other RFAs: F Noah Gregor, F Joachim Blichfeld, F Alexander True, D Christian Jaros
Key Unrestricted Free Agents:
F Kurtis Gabriel – You might look at the five career points that Gabriel has and wonder why he would be included in a free agent list, but from all accounts, the physical winger has a market waiting for him. Gabriel was given permission to talk to other teams already according to a report from Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet last month, meaning he could go quick on day one of the frenzy if the Sharks aren’t going to retain him. Now 28, the 6’4″ enforcer racked up 55 penalty minutes in 11 games this season, including 19 in his final game of the year.
F Patrick Marleau – The ageless wonder is an unrestricted free agent once again and suggested at the end of the season that he would like to play again in 2021-22. Marleau passed Gordie Howe for first place on the all-time games played list, though some still point out that he doesn’t have the true record. Though the 41-year-old Marleau has now played the most regular season games in history, he’s still 18 games behind Mark Messier for the most NHL appearances including playoffs. With a full season, Marleau could become the first person to ever play in more than 2,000 combined NHL games, as he currently sits at 1,974. He doesn’t add much these days, but having Marleau break that record in any other sweater certainly wouldn’t feel right.
Other UFAs: F Marcus Sorensen, F Maxim Letunov, D Greg Pateryn
Projected Cap Space
The team has struggled, they only have 16 players under contact and yet San Jose still has just over $9.2MM in cap space to spend this summer. The money owed to the quintet of Erik Karlsson ($11.5MM AAV), Brent Burns ($8MM), Logan Couture ($8MM), Evander Kane ($7MM), and Marc-Edouard Vlasic ($7MM) cripples any chance of making significant changes, and none of those contracts will be off the books until at least 2025. It’s hard to see the Sharks making a big splash on the open market unless they find a way to rid themselves of at least one of those veteran players.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Free Agent Focus: Pittsburgh Penguins
Free agency is now just under a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up. There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. Pittsburgh took care of one notable free agent today but they still have some regulars in need of new contracts.
Key Restricted Free Agents
F Zach Aston-Reese – The 26-year-old was a highly sought-after college free agent back in 2017 and while he hasn’t emerged as a big scoring threat, Aston-Reese has become a valuable checker for the Penguins, holding down a regular spot on the roster for the last two seasons. He had a career-high nine goals in 45 games this season while chipping in with a pair of points in six playoff games, numbers that aren’t going to command a sizable raise. His qualifying offer is $1MM and even though he’s eligible for salary arbitration, the potential for a hearing isn’t too much of a risk. Aston-Reese is in line for a small raise but it shouldn’t break the bank for a Penguins team that is already pretty tight to the cap.
F Mark Jankowski – After being non-tendered by Calgary back in the fall, Jankowski opted to take a league minimum contract in the hopes that a new environment in Pittsburgh would help to boost his value. That didn’t exactly happen. By the end of the year, he was a frequent healthy scratch and managed to post just 11 points. While that was still an upgrade on his final season with the Flames, it was still well short of expectations. Even though the 26-year-old is only owed a qualifying offer of the league minimum, it seems quite likely that the 21st pick from 2012 will be looking for a new home at the end of the month.
Other RFAs: F Kasper Bjorkqvist, G Emil Larmi, D Jesper Lindgren, F Sam Miletic, F Radim Zohorna
Key Unrestricted Free Agents
D Cody Ceci – Another player that looked to Pittsburgh to restore some value, Ceci was able to do just that as he quickly became an important piece on the third pairing. He chipped in a bit offensively with 17 points in 53 games while logging over 18 minutes a night. Those numbers don’t jump off the charts but after being miscast in a top-four role with Ottawa and Toronto, Ceci fared much better with a more limited role. GM Ron Hextall indicated a desire to re-sign the veteran recently but acknowledged that they will need to trim payroll to do so. After playing on a $1.25MM deal this past season, the 27-year-old has earned a small raise but barring the Penguins clearing out a pricey contract, it looks like Ceci will have to go elsewhere to get that pay increase.
F Evan Rodrigues – After Pittsburgh traded him to Toronto back in August, he wound up being non-tendered and went back for a second stint with the Penguins. This one went a little better even though it got off to a rocky start when he landed on LTIR early in the season. Overall, he saw considerable action on the third line and averaged just over 14 minutes per game while chipping in with seven goals and seven assists in 35 games. He’s not looking at a significant raise from the $700K he made this season but another couple hundred thousand could be doable.
F Frederick Gaudreau – This one may seem like a surprise. Gaudreau is 27 and had eight career NHL points heading into this season. He only played in 19 games this season but very quietly put up ten points, earning himself a regular spot in the lineup in the playoffs. Are there teams that will give him a shot at a full-time roster spot based on his strong two months? If so, there should be a fair bit of interest in his services.
Other UFAs: D Kevin Czuczman, G Maxime Lagace, F Colton Sceviour
Projected Cap Space
Well, there really isn’t a lot. Today’s deal with Teddy Blueger takes Pittsburgh within $1MM of the Upper Limit of the salary cap with at least one more forward to sign to fill out the roster. That’s not even enough to re-sign Aston-Reese so some work will need to be done. If Seattle takes a higher-priced player, Hextall would have some wiggle room to play with but otherwise, it could be a fairly quiet summer for the Penguins.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Offseason Checklist: Boston Bruins
The offseason is in full flight with the draft and free agency fast approaching. We continue our series which examines what each team needs to accomplish over the coming weeks and months. Next up is a look at Boston.
The Bruins underwent a few notable changes over the last year but the end result was the same as they were eliminated in the second round, this time by the eventual Cup winner in Tampa Bay. GM Don Sweeney has more salary cap flexibility this summer than he’s accustomed to although he also has some other holes to fill this time around as well. Here is an overview of what they should be looking to accomplish.
Goaltending Decisions
Tuukka Rask has been a fixture in Boston’s goaltending tandem for the past dozen years. However, he’s set to become an unrestricted free agent this summer and hip surgery will cost him the first half of next season. He has made it clear that he wants to return to the Bruins and that he’s not looking to go elsewhere but is the feeling mutual? More specifically, can they afford to wait for him?
With Jaroslav Halak also set to become an unrestricted free agent, Jeremy Swayman currently stands as the only goalie in the mix for one of the two spots. Swayman was quite impressive in his first taste of NHL action this season – a 1.50 GAA with a .945 SV% in 10 games (all starts) – but can they afford to enter 2021-22 with him as the starter and a placeholder as the backup while waiting for Rask to return? If they believe Swayman is ready for a full-time NHL role, they could certainly go that route and adding Rask midseason or soon after would give them a nice boost for the stretch run.
But if the answer to that is no, that complicates things a little bit. Daniel Vladar is the other goalie in the mix and has impressed in the minors but has just five career NHL games under his belt. He’s eligible for waivers and could be a candidate to be claimed. If they don’t want to run the risk of losing him, the Bruins could be faced with running two rookie goalies out to start the season.
If they opt to bring in a veteran goalie (which could simply be re-signing Halak) and re-sign Rask, that could create a situation where Swayman is the odd one out midseason by default once Rask returns. Unlike Vladar, he’s waiver-exempt so there are no issues there but if he has a strong first half making it difficult to send him down, it could be a three-goalie situation down the stretch for the second year in a row. It can work but it’s typically not an ideal spot for teams to be in.
With Rask’s injury, his specific fate doesn’t necessarily have to be decided at the beginning of free agency. But if they want to go outside the organization for a goalie, whoever they want to work with Swayman will need to sign sooner than later knowing how fast the goalie market typically is in free agency.
Re-Sign Or Replace Hall
The Bruins weren’t able to get a deal done with Taylor Hall last fall but when Buffalo opted to move him at the trade deadline, the veteran was able to leverage his trade protection to force a deal to Boston. At that time, both sides expressed an interest in a longer-term arrangement and reiterated the same following the playoffs.
It’s one thing to have mutual interest in getting something done and another to actually agreeing on a contract. Hall opted for a pillow contract last fall with his one-year, $8MM agreement with the Sabres with the hopes that a rebound season would better position himself for a long-term deal this summer. That didn’t happen; at least, it didn’t happen with Buffalo. His time with them was nothing short of a disaster as he scored just twice in 37 games. But things went much better following his trade as he tallied eight goals in just 16 contests and came up just shy of a point per game average. That’s still not $8MM value but it was a whole lot better. He was a bit quieter in the playoffs, however, with just five points in 11 games.
It’s safe to say he’s looking at a cut in pay but by how much? The free agent market wasn’t particularly kind to wingers last fall and his marketability is probably a little lower now than it was in October. Accordingly, landing something at his prior contract – a $6MM AAV – may even be difficult as his recent production would justify something a little lower than that.
At this point, Boston would appear to be the odds-on favorite to bring back the 29-year-old but if they don’t, Sweeney will need to move quickly to try to replace him. A capable secondary scoring threat has been something they’ve been coveting for a while now and their offense was certainly boosted when Hall came in so bringing in someone else to fill that role if Hall leaves would certainly be helpful.
Add Defensive Upgrades
When Torey Krug (and to a lesser extent, Zdeno Chara) left as unrestricted free agents, there was an expectation that reinforcements were on the way. That didn’t happen. Then the season started and the hope became an early-season addition. That didn’t happen either. It took until the trade deadline for Sweeney to try to make a meaningful pickup and that came in the form of Mike Reilly, a player who had bounced around a bit but really found his footing with Ottawa before continuing that with the Bruins. Even so, Reilly is no more than a second-pairing defender but made a huge impact on Boston’s back end.
Between Reilly’s impact and the injuries they dealt with in the playoffs, that should have sent a strong message to Sweeney about the need to supplement their back end. Cap space certainly won’t be an issue as with the big-ticket deals coming off the books (Rask, Hall, and David Krejci), they have over $26MM at their disposal. Yes, a good chunk of that will be spent on goalies and re-signing or replacing Hall but there is more than ample cap room for the Bruins to try to add an impact defender as well as upgrade their depth.
Find A Second Line Center
Speaking of Krejci’s expiring contract, this creates another void up front that needs to be addressed. The 15-year Bruin has indicated he wants to return to Boston but is undecided on whether or not he’s going to play again in the NHL. If he does come back, this is a pretty easy spot to fill – re-sign Krejci for less than the $7.25MM cap hit he had on his most recent contract and call it a day.
If that doesn’t happen, Sweeney will need to go shopping. Charlie Coyle had a tough year in the third spot and recently underwent a pair of knee surgeries. While he’s expected to be ready for training camp, counting on him to boost the second line when he struggled as much as he did would be risky. Having said that, it’s once again not a great free agent class down the middle (Phillip Danault, Alexander Wennberg, Mikael Granlund, and Paul Stastny are the top options available) so if they can’t land one of those, the addition would need to come from outside the organization. The short supply of free agents means that this market should develop fairly quickly so Sweeney would certainly prefer a firm commitment sooner than later from Krejci in the hopes of filling that spot before it really opens up.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Expansion Primer: Boston Bruins
Over the last few weeks, we have been breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.
In the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft, the Boston Bruins were able to protect all of their key forwards but had to make a difficult choice of who to protect on defense other than Zdeno Chara and Torey Krug. The third spot came down to physical veteran Kevan Miller and skilled youngster Colin Miller. It was a lose-lose, as whoever they did not protect was expected to be selected by the Vegas Golden Knights. The Bruins opted to stay loyal to the veteran and watched a promising young blue liner find success elsewhere.
This time around, the Bruins are again able to protect their most valuable assets, with a little luck from some timely expiring contracts, and this time around don’t have any hard choices to make on defense. Yet, the team will again have to expose talented young defensemen and very likely will suffer another tough loss.
Eligible Players (Non-UFA)
Forwards:
Patrice Bergeron (NMC), Charlie Coyle (NMC), Brad Marchand (NMC), Peter Cehlarik, Jake DeBrusk, Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson, Trent Frederic, Cameron Hughes, Ondrej Kase, Joona Koppanen, Karson Kuhlman, Curtis Lazar, David Pastrnak, Nick Ritchie, Zach Senyshyn, Craig Smith, Chris Wagner
Defense:
|Linus Arnesson, Brandon Carlo, Connor Clifton, Matt Grzelcyk, Jeremy Lauzon, Charlie McAvoy, John Moore, Jakub Zboril
Goalies:
Callum Booth, Daniel Vladar
Notable Unrestricted Free Agents
G Jaroslav Halak, F Taylor Hall, F David Krejci, F Sean Kuraly, D Kevan Miller, G Tuukka Rask, D Mike Reilly
Notable Exemptions
F John Beecher, G Jeremy Swayman, F Jack Studnicka, D Urho Vaakanainen
Key Decisions
The Bruins are guaranteed to lose a good player to the Seattle Kraken, but it could be much worse. Career Bruins Krejci and Rask, who are still playing at an elite level, are currently unrestricted free agents and have essentially made it known that they will play only in Boston or else retire. The duo would have no choice if under contract and exposed in the Expansion Draft, but their long-term contracts expired just in time. Trade Deadline addition Hall, who proved to be a terrific fit, is also a UFA and has expressed interest in re-signing in Boston. Seattle is unlikely to select the former MVP if his mind is set on staying with the Bruins. Even valuable depth pieces who are not necessarily locks to re-sign with Boston but have at least discussed the possibility, such as Kuraly, Miller, and Reilly, are currently free agents and have free will over their next move whether selected by the Kraken or not. The Bruins essentially have lucked into upwards of six additional protection slots by way of timely free agency for players who would like to return to Boston.
With the actual protection slots that the team does have, many of the decisions have been made for them. No-Movement Clauses for icons Bergeron and Marchand, as well as local product Coyle, will keep the trio protected. Bergeron and Marchand would have been obvious protections anyway and, even after a down year, the versatile, two-way Coyle likely would have been as well, in hopes that he returns to form following much-needed knee repairs this off-season. In net, by default the team will keep promising young goaltender Vladar as starter Rask and backup Halak are free agents, future starter Swayman is exempt, and minor leaguer Booth was seemingly signed for the exact purpose of meeting the exposure requirements.
Elsewhere on the roster there are some automatic protections as well. Young stars McAvoy and Pastrnak are no-brainers for protection, especially after both were nearly NHL All-Star selections this year. Carlo, another standout young defenseman, will also surely be protected, as will veteran winger Smith who the team just signed to a bargain, multi-year deal last off-season.
On defense, there is one spot open and while there may have been some debate as to who to protect before this season, Grzelcyk quickly ended that conversation. The 27-year-old puck-mover had a career year across the board as he stepped into the void left by Krug’s free agency departure and proved himself invaluable to the Bruins. Had he failed to do so, he may not have been the easy choice with other younger defenders in the mix.
While Boston is surely happy that they can protect the only defensemen under contract who have proven themselves as top-four options, and also have some potential UFA returners and exempt prospects who could play key roles next season, the team is still set up to possibly take a big loss on the blue line in the draft. Exposing all three of Lauzon, Zboril, and Clifton gives Seattle multiple young options to consider stealing from the Bruins. Lauzon would be the biggest hit, definitely on defense but possibly on the whole roster. The 24-year-old is a reliable defensive presence who is dominant on the penalty kill, is physical, and is not a liability moving the puck or contributing in the offensive zone. He may not have enormous upside, but could be an NHL starter for many years to come. Zboril, also 24, finished seventh in voting for the NHL’s All-Rookie team this year and was one of the AHL’s top defensemen last year. While he did not do as much with his opportunity this season compared to Lauzon, Zboril is a balanced defenseman with arguably more upside that Lauzon who could take a major step forward once he overcomes some bad tendencies and polishes his game. Clifton, though unlikely to play above the bottom pair in the NHL, plays a physical, high-intensity brand of hockey that makes him a refreshing addition to the lineup as an extra man. While he is limited in some areas, Clifton is nevertheless an eye-catching presence on the ice. Any of the three affordable young blue liners would be unsurprising selections by Seattle.
In contrast, the forwards remaining – especially with two protection slots yet to be claimed – are far less likely to be chosen. For starters, the biggest available name, DeBrusk, will not be available. Despite a very poor 2020-21 campaign, DeBrusk is still a 24-year-old forward with a 27-goal season and two 40+ point seasons on his resume. In DeBrusk’s first three seasons, he played at an 82-game pace of 25 goals and 49 points. While his production this season was far from that mark, the Bruins are not ready to give up on him that easy. At $3.675MM on the final year of his current contract, DeBrusk is a palatable cap hit in exchange for the upside. While it is true that he may need a chance of scenery, the Bruins will not just give him away; they will hold out for a fair trade or not move him at all. If DeBrusk is still a Bruin by this weekend, he will almost definitely be protected.
One spot left up front and so many options. All have their reasons for, but also have reasons against protection. Of the remaining group of available names, Ritchie was far and away the top scorer. However, the big winger’s production was heavily weighted on his early season power play role. As the year wore on, Ritchie’s production disappeared and by the end of the playoffs he had been demoted to the fourth line. A restricted free agent with limited ability given his offensive and defensive shortcomings, the Bruins can hope that Seattle bites based on Ritchie’s goal scoring numbers this year, but it is unlikely. Even if the team wants him back, they will probably not protect him.
The same goes for Kase. On talent alone, Kase should be protected and if left unprotected should be the obvious selection for the Kraken. However, his injury history makes both teams wary. Kase missed all but three games this season due to concussion issues and his future is unknown. The Bruins may want to keep Kase around after trading for him just last year, but not at his $2.6MM qualifying offer given the injury risk, meaning they likely plan to make him an unrestricted free agent anyway. Also knowing Seattle is unlikely to risk an expansion selection on a player who may never be healthy, it would be surprising to see Kase protected.
Seemingly just a throw-in to the Hall trade, Lazar was a great fit with the Bruins down the stretch and in the postseason and if not selected in the Expansion Draft looks to anchor the fourth line and contribute to the penalty kill in Boston next year. However, he is one year away from unrestricted free agency and has bounced around the NHL with limited sustained success in his young career. The Bruins are unlikely to protect him and know Seattle is unlikely to select him for the same reasons. As for fellow fourth liner Wagner, the local product was worth a multi-year deal at $1.35MM AAV to the Bruins, but not to most other teams. Expecting the Kraken to pass, the Bruins probably do not protect Wagner. The team also knows that in the event that Lazar or Wagner are in fact taken by Seattle, they have plenty of defensive-minded forwards waiting in the AHL for opportunity.
So who gets the final protection slot? The smart money is on young Frederic. The 2016 first-round pick is a budding fan favorite in Boston with his hard-nosed style and willingness to drop the gloves. Frederic also showed good offensive ability in the NCAA and AHL prior to his arrival as an NHL regular this season. He still has some holes to his game with growing left to do, but the Bruins lacked grit and physicality at times this season and know they can get at least that from Frederic, if not more. With a higher ceiling than any other bottom-six forward in consideration (not including a healthy Kase), Frederic offers the most potential value to the Bruins.
Projected Protection List
F Patrice Bergeron (NMC)
F Charlie Coyle (NMC)
F Jake DeBrusk
F Trent Frederic
F Brad Marchand (NMC)
F David Pastrnak
F Craig Smith
D Brandon Carlo
D Matt Grzelcyk
D Charlie McAvoy
Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist
When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined. Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined. In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.
Forwards (2): Curtis Lazar, Chris Wagner
Defensemen (3): Connor Clifton, Jeremy Lauzon, Jakub Zboril
The Seattle Kraken are not holding their breath about the Bruins’ protection list. They know that regardless of the final decisions they are getting a good player, even with Boston protecting their core. That could be a promising young defenseman like Lauzon or Zboril, a bottom of the lineup role player like Ritchie, Wagner, or Clifton, or maybe even a high-ceiling, low-floor risk in Kase. Seattle could also have plans to offer a godfather deal to one of the Bruins’ impending free agents, with Hall obviously the most intriguing of the bunch, or to use the sheer number of possible expansion losses as a way to goad Boston into making a side deal to select a certain player at a cost (Moore perhaps?). Regardless of the result, the Kraken will get something good from the Bruins.
Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Free Agent Focus: Philadelphia Flyers
Free agency is now just a few weeks away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up. There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. Things aren’t completely off the rails in Philadelphia after a disappointing season, but there are some big decisions to be made on the direction of the franchise.
Key Restricted Free Agents
F Nolan Patrick – Can Patrick overcome his injury issues and become a core piece for the Flyers? Some have already labeled the 2017 second-overall pick as a bust and have written him off completely, while others believe with time and patience he could still become a valuable asset. Philadelphia’s front office is going to need to make that decision this summer as Patrick enters restricted free agency once again, this time coming off a brutal performance. Last summer, the young forward was negotiating a deal after missing the entire 2019-20 season due to a migraine issue and ended up signing for his qualifying offer amount. Given that he’s still ineligible for arbitration and scored just nine points in 52 games, it’s hard to see him getting much more than that. If anything, it seems like a change of scenery might benefit both parties, as long as the Flyers received something valuable in return. There’s a lot of work to do for the 22-year-old forward to prove he can still be even a middle-six center at the NHL level, let alone the star he was supposed to be.
D Travis Sanheim – There’s a trend in these RFA cases for the Flyers, as all of them are players that were supposed to be key contributors this season but ended up having down years. Sanheim was supposed to step into a bigger role for the team in his fourth season and build off the success he had in the past. Instead, he recorded just 15 points in 55 games and registered the worst possession stats of his career. That’s not to say Sanheim is playing his way off the team, quite the opposite, as he has established a spot on the second pair, but the breakout that was expected never came. His last deal, a two-year contract in 2019 worth $6.5MM total, was supposed to be a bridge to a big RFA deal this summer. But how big can the Flyers really go for a player that, while valuable, hasn’t improved much over the last two seasons. An interesting option for both sides might even be arbitration, giving Sanheim a one-year deal at a slightly higher number. It would leave him just a year from unrestricted free agency, but also give him a chance to show he still does have some of that top-pairing upside left in him.
G Carter Hart – Speaking of players coming off down years, it’s hard to know just how much money Hart cost himself this season. The 22-year-old goaltender is still the future in Philadelphia, but after posting an .877 save percentage in 27 appearances, just nine of them wins, he’s suddenly a risky investment. If the Flyers try to get a multi-year contract done with the young netminder, it will have to be on a contract that makes sense even if he fails to take back the workhorse role. There’s no way they can invest starter money in Hart after a season like that, and they won’t have to, given he’s not yet eligible for arbitration. Philadelphia could slow play this if they want, and force Hart to accept a short-term deal around his qualifying offer, but they could also try to lock him in for a few years at a depressed price, betting on a rebound. It’s a tough situation for the player side too, not wanting to throw away too much earning potential, but also knowing that his role in the organization could be in jeopardy with another bad season or two.
Other RFAs: F Pascal Laberge, F Connor Bunnaman, F David Kase
Key Unrestricted Free Agents:
F Samuel Morin – It’s tough to watch Morin now, knowing that there was so much potential in that 6’6″ frame when the Flyers selected him 11th overall in 2013. Though his size and physicality were always the focus, the drastically improved skating of Morin was supposed to translate into a true shutdown defender for Philadelphia. Multiple major knee surgeries later and Morin was forced to make the switch to forward, claiming he wanted to be the next Matt Martin, offering a simple game but adding physicality to the lineup every night. It didn’t pan out, and Morin played just 20 games this season, recording a single goal (his NHL first) and 38 hits. A positionless part-time enforcer is not what 11th overall picks usually turn out to be, and now Morin hits Group VI UFA status with no clear future.
G Brian Elliott – Hart was bad and Elliott wasn’t much better this season, posting his second straight year with a save percentage under .900. It’s been a long career for the 36-year-old goaltender and from all accounts, he is beloved in Philadelphia, but the team desperately needs some consistency in net moving forward. There will be many other options for the team to go after this summer, even if the focus is still on Hart getting back to his early performance. If the team comes back with the same duo, it’s hard to expect different results at this point.
Other UFAs: F Andy Andreoff, D Matt Niskanen (retired), D Derrick Pouliot, D Tyler Wotherspoon, D Nate Prosser, D Chris Bigras, G Alex Lyon
Projected Cap Space
With more than $68.4MM committed to 17 players, the Flyers have just over $13MM left to work with this offseason. That could grow substantially if they can convince the Seattle Kraken to take Jakub Voracek or trade him elsewhere, but for now they don’t have a ton of money to work with. Remember, captain Claude Giroux and top center Sean Couturier are both pending unrestricted free agents after this season and will need extensions if the Flyers want to keep them around, meaning any long-term money they spend in free agency will have to be done with careful consideration.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Expansion Primer: Buffalo Sabres
Over the last few weeks, we have been breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.
When the Buffalo Sabres last faced an expansion draft, they were coming off a last-place finish in the Atlantic Division and didn’t have a ton of high-end talent to protect. Names like Tyler Ennis and Johan Larsson ended up being protected over a little-known rookie named William Carrier, who would go on to become a fan favorite in Vegas. The 6’2″ Carrier is an absolute wrecking ball on the ice and has racked up 734 hits in his 214 regular season games with the Golden Knights. Though the team will obviously try to avoid making the same mistake, there are some interesting decisions to be made in Buffalo this time around.
Eligible Players (Non-UFA)
Forwards:
Jack Eichel, Jeff Skinner (NMC), Kyle Okposo, Sam Reinhart, Victor Olofsson, Cody Eakin, Zemgus Girgensons, Anders Bjork, Tage Thompson, Casey Mittelstadt, Rasmus Asplund, Andrew Oglevie
Defense:
Rasmus Ristolainen, Colin Miller, Rasmus Dahlin, Henri Jokiharju, William Borgen
Goalies:
Notable Unrestricted Free Agents
F Drake Caggiula, F Tobias Rieder, D Jake McCabe, G Linus Ullmark, G Carter Hutton
Notable Exemptions
F Arttu Ruotsalainen, F Dylan Cozens, G Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
Key Decisions
This expansion primer could be made obsolete at any moment, given the offseason that is about to start in Buffalo. The team has had extensive trade talks about Eichel, Reinhart and Ristolainen, three players who were once considered building blocks for the franchise. If any of them are moved before the draft, things could be drastically altered.
But if things stay the same for the next few days? There are some tough decisions to make.
At forward, Eichel, Reinhart, Mittelstadt and Olofsson are easy choices for protection. Skinner’s no-movement clause makes him a must-protect, even though the Sabres would obviously like to leave him exposed. That leaves just two spots for the trio of Thompson, Bjork and Asplund, who have all shown flashes of high-end NHL potential but have lacked consistency. The 23-year-old Thompson has spent the most time in Buffalo, arriving from the St. Louis Blues in 2018 and playing 104 games with the team. He signed a three-year, $4.2MM deal in 2020 and registered 14 points in 38 games this season. There are a lot of questions surrounding Thompson’s game, but the 6’7″ forward will still likely get at least one more kick at the can in Buffalo, so protection is warranted.
For Bjork, things aren’t so dissimilar. He came in the Taylor Hall trade this season and is signed through the 2022-23 season on a three-year, $4.8MM deal. He had six points in 15 games after arriving in Buffalo and it would be hard to watch him snatched up by Seattle just a few months after arriving in such a major trade.
That leaves Asplund on the outside looking in, but who knows if Seattle would even have any interest. The 23-year-old has registered eight goals and 14 points in 57 career games, splitting this season between Buffalo, Rochester and Sweden. There is real offensive potential in Asplund, but as a restricted free agent without a ton of experience under his belt, might be passed over without much attention anyway.
On defense, Dahlin leads the way as an obvious choice, but things are a little cloudier after that. Jokiharju likely deserves protection after showing some signs of improvement late in the season, but he was also a huge disappointment early on. His lack of development was a huge problem for the Sabres this season, even if he is still definitely young enough to continue to improve.
It’s the third spot that becomes completely unclear at this point, given that Ristolainen is still on the roster. The team appears to have an NHL-ready replacement in Borgen, but he has just 14 games of experience under his belt to this point. Leaving Ristolainen unprotected would essentially be handing a valuable asset over to Seattle, even if his time with the Sabres organization has come to an end. A trade makes sense, but as of now Ristolainen is still on the roster and needs that final protection spot.
One thing to point out is that Buffalo spent a sixth-round pick last expansion draft to protect an extra goaltender, keeping Vegas away from Ullmark while protecting future Golden Knight Robin Lehner. This time they don’t have anything to worry about in the goaltending situation with no one even signed, but perhaps they could do something similar to protect Asplund or Borgen, if necessary. There’s also the possibility that the Kraken decide to sign one of Buffalo’s free agents, namely Ullmark, if they believe him to be the most valuable option. The team has a short window before the draft to negotiate with pending UFAs, but it would count as their selection from the Sabres. Unlike some of the other free agents around the league, there’s no expansion issue stopping Buffalo from re-signing their starter—in fact, they don’t even have a goaltender under contract to protect at all, since Tokarski must be left exposed to fill the requirements.
Projected Protection List
F Jack Eichel
F Jeff Skinner (NMC)
F Sam Reinhart
F Victor Olofsson
F Tage Thompson
F Casey Mittelstadt
F Anders Bjork
D Rasmus Ristolainen
D Rasmus Dahlin
D Henri Jokiharju
G (none)
Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist
When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined. Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined. In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.
Forwards (3): Kyle Okposo, Cody Eakin, Zemgus Girgensons
Defensemen (1): Colin Miller
The Sabres are fine for their protection requirements, though Miller’s exposure does post an interesting option for the Kraken. He of course was the Golden Knights’ selection from the Boston Bruins last time around, and ended up netting Vegas a second and fifth-round pick from Buffalo after putting up some big numbers in increased minutes. At just 28, is it unthinkable that the Kraken could try to pull off a similar trick with the right-shot defenseman, pulling him out of the struggling Sabres shadow and giving him prime offensive minutes on an expansion roster?
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Offseason Checklist: Carolina Hurricanes
The offseason is in full flight with the draft and free agency fast approaching. We continue our series which examines what those eliminated teams need to accomplish over the coming weeks and months. Next up is a look at Carolina.
The Hurricanes had a strong regular season, finishing first in the Central Division while slotting in third overall. However, it didn’t result in the playoff success that they were looking for as they were ousted in the second round by the eventual Stanley Cup champion in Tampa Bay. Now, GM Don Waddell enters the summer with ample cap space at his disposal – more than $29MM – but also some key areas to address which are noted on their offseason checklist.
Resolve The Hamilton Situation
Carolina made headlines last month when they gave pending UFA Dougie Hamilton permission to speak to other clubs early, basically giving him a head start on free agency. It’s an interesting move but it was necessitated by a sizable gap in contract talks. It allows Hamilton to see if he can get the contract his camp thinks he’s worth and if so, creates the potential for Carolina to try to get something in return for his rights.
The only card the Hurricanes have to play is that they can give Hamilton the extra year in basically what would amount to a sign-and-trade agreement. Otherwise, the negotiation rights on their own are only going to be worth a mid to late-round draft pick. That’s still better than losing him for nothing but it wouldn’t be much of a return.
If that happens, Waddell will likely need to turn towards trying to replace Hamilton. He’d be a big loss but at the same time, they should be bracing themselves to lose a defenseman to Seattle as well – one of Jake Bean or Brady Skjei – so there would be multiple holes to try to fill. There aren’t many impact blueliners on the open market so it may have to be addressed by a trade.
On the other hand, if Hamilton’s discussions with other teams don’t prove as fruitful as he hopes and the offers aren’t as strong as he hoped for, it’s quite possible he circles back and tries to work out a new deal with Carolina. If that’s the case, the window to do something will be limited as they’d likely want to wait until after expansion to sign him; that leaves one week to work a new deal out before the calendar flips to the new league year and with it, the ability to give him the extra year on his contract.
Make Goaltending Decisions
Carolina successfully managed to juggle three quality goaltenders down the stretch but that’s a strategy that isn’t going to be viable over the course of a full season. Accordingly, there are decisions to be made on all fronts.
Alex Nedeljkovic went from being passed on by every team in the league on waivers to their starter late in the year and in the playoffs. In doing so, he played enough games for the Hurricanes to retain his rights as a restricted free agent but with that carries arbitration eligibility. A recent report suggested that the team is at least kicking around the possibility of non-tendering him to avoid the risk of an arbitration award that’s too high for their liking. That wouldn’t preclude him from signing a new deal – it’s a route that teams have increasingly taken in recent years to keep their players – but it also creates an opportunity for him to hit the open market. Are they committed to him as their starter? With such a small track record (less than 30 career regular season games), that’s a hard commitment to make. Are they ready to commit a year or two with a significant raise to keep him around? They have a few weeks to make that call still.
The question then becomes which of their unrestricted free agents do they keep around. Petr Mrazek has the better recent track record but is he going to get an opportunity to have a bigger role than a platoon goalie? There are enough vacancies around the league that makes it a legitimate possibility which could price him out of Carolina’s desired price range. That could open the door for James Reimer to stick around. He’s not at the top end of the backup/platoon goalies out there but still shouldn’t be facing too substantial of a pay cut from the $3.1MM salary he made this season.
Of course, with 11 goalies in unrestricted free agency playing in at least 20 of 56 games this season, Waddell could opt to change things up and bring in a newcomer. There is a possibility that two of the three goalies come back. There’s a possibility that none of them do. Given how quickly the spending happens on goalies in free agency, this is a decision that will be made soon.
Re-Sign Svechnikov
A new deal for winger Andrei Svechnikov was something Waddell was hoping to get done last fall but it didn’t happen. Instead, the 21-year-old will hit restricted free agency for the first time but will not have salary arbitration eligibility.
With all of that cap room, it appears that they have the ability to give him a max-term deal if they wanted but a lot depends on their internal budget; will they be a cap-spending team? And from Svechnikov’s perspective, is this the right financial environment to lock in a contract that buys out some UFA years? Such a deal would put him over $7MM annually in all likelihood but he’s coming off a quieter year than his sophomore campaign. Would a bridge contract make more sense, allowing him to ideally get another strong couple of years under his belt, become eligible for arbitration, and work out a new deal as the salary cap starts to increase? At this point, this seems like the likeliest outcome.
Such a move can often take time. Without any other leverage beyond the remote possibility of an offer sheet (and Carolina matched the last one quite quickly), all Svechnikov can do if he doesn’t like the status of negotiations is wait and hope that Waddell ups his offer. Patience may be required on this front but a deal that boosts his price tag beyond the $3.575MM he could have earned by maxing out on his bonuses will be forthcoming.
Utilize Cap Space
Even by the time they re-sign or replace Hamilton, figure out their goalies, and leave enough room for Svechnikov, Carolina will have ample space to work with. They’ll need to reshape their bottom six with a trio of pending UFAs there (Jordan Martinook, Brock McGinn, and Cedric Paquette) but there will be an opportunity to add another asset even after addressing their other areas. If they’re going to be a budget team, their best bet may be taking on a contract with a higher AAV than salary and leverage that into adding another asset on top of the player. If they are spending to the cap, however, they could be a sneaky presence in free agency and even one impact addition could vault them into contention as they return to the Metropolitan Division next year.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.