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Nico Hischier

Nolan Patrick, Nico Hischier To Take Part In All Combine Testing

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Just yesterday our Zach Leach provided a comprehensive breakdown on the NHL Scouting Combine and the effect it may have on players draft stock. Especially in a year that there is no consensus throughout the first round, the performance in the physical tests and team interviews may have a big impact on how the draft shakes out. Details are already leaking out about how many interviews certain players have, like Eeli Tolvanen who has an amazing 28 meetings scheduled according to Mike Morreale of NHL.com. Also from Morreale, the exciting news that Nolan Patrick and Nico Hischier will both take part in all the physical testing, provided that Patrick is medically cleared.

Patrick and Hischier are both still in real competition for the first-overall pick, even as New Jersey takes calls on a possible trade. While there is no indication that Ray Shero and the Devils will deal the selection, the top two players will take 13 and 14 interviews respectively, way more than usual for the top of the draft. That does lend some credence to the idea that they might be available, and also to the idea that Miro Heiskanen or someone else could be a draft-day surprise and find his way into the top 2.

We already know that the Stars are considering moving the third-overall pick, and with Heiskanen putting on a late push to be considered among the top players perhaps some think Hischier or Patrick will fall to third. For what it’s worth, Grant McCagg of Recrutes.ca now has Heiskanen as his top available player. While it would be a huge draft-day surprise to see Heiskanen go first (or Patrick fall out of the top two), the intrigue continues to build. The players will undergo the fitness testing on Saturday, June 3rd after a week full of interviews with teams. It’s busy for teams too, as Pierre LeBrun of TSN reports that Peter Chiarelli and the Oilers front office spoke with 20 players just today.

NHL Scouting Combine Preview

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While members of the hockey media flock to Pittsburgh for Stanley Cup Final media day today, NHL executives and scouts from all 31 teams are instead headed to Buffalo for the NHL Scouting Combine. The event kicks off tomorrow and runs all week long. A relatively new exercise for the NHL dating back to the early 2000’s, the combine has been hosted by the Sabres since 2015 and is scheduled to take place in Buffalo through 2019, the combine allows NHL teams their first chance both at one-on-one interviews with prospects and to discover specific medical and physical issues that may arise. The combine is hugely informative and executives around the league have raved about the impact it has made on the draft process.

The 2017 NHL Scouting Combine will feature 104 of the top prospects for the NHL Draft later in June, comprised of 84 North American prospects and 20 international prospects. Altogether, there will be 58 forwards, 36 defensemen and 10 goaltenders in attendance. This array of prospects should largely cover the entirety of the first three rounds of the draft, meaning every team has a reason to be in attendance and will have an eye on gaining insight beyond just the players likely to be there at their first round slot.

Much more extensive than other professional scouting combines, the NHL combine includes testing for joint movement, lung capacity (VO2 Max), balance, and grip strength. This is in addition to typical combine procedures like height and weight measurements and workouts such as the bench press, pull-ups, standing long jump, vertical leap, and the hockey equivalent to the 40-yard dash.

Some noteworthy top-ten prospects whose combine performance may be more important than others include Casey Mittelstadt, Cale Makar, and, of course, Nolan Patrick. The debate rages on ahead of June 23rd over who the better prospect and likely first-overall pick will be: Patrick or Nico Hischier. Hiscier supporters have increased in number, but the majority are still on the side of Patrick, even after a season spent mostly sidelined due to injury. Patrick can help his case for #1 in a major way with a clean bill of health and strong results in musculoskeletal workouts this week. If instead he still shows signs of wear and potentially risks of long-term issues, the New Jersey Devils could easily take Hischier instead. For Mittelstadt and Makar, as well as a few others in first-round consideration, their lack of experience playing against elite competition makes their measurables that much more important. Mittelstadt spent half of his season dominating high school kids in Minnesota and the other half in the USHL, while Makar played in the Junior A Alberta Junior Hockey League. While both are headed to the NCAA in 2017-18, where they can be better evaluated, that comes too late for the teams interested in selecting them this year. Neither faced the same level of consistent competition as their peers in the major junior CHL leagues or against men in European pro leagues, but can make up for it and add to their draft resumes with comparable workout results to fellow top prospects.

The Scouting Combine has become very important to all prospects and evaluators alike and has no doubt impact the draft order in each of the past two years. 2017 should be no different; stay tuned for any news coming out of Buffalo this week.

Expansion Primer: Philadelphia Flyers

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

The Philadelphia Flyers are coming off a disappointing season of Metropolitan struggles. Thankfully, with the #2 pick in the upcoming draft, they will receive an infusion a top level talent in Nico Hischier or Nolan Patrick. There aren’t a ton of success stories from this last season for the Flyers, in which Wayne Simmonds led the way up front. Many players took a noticeable step back and the younger forwards failed to produce at an impactful clip.

The Flyers are in desperate need of embracing a full youth movement. The longer they cling to players like Andrew MacDonald, the worse off their rebuild will be. This is not a team that can compete for a Stanley Cup in the near future and with the expansion draft forcing tough decisions, now is the time to embrace that organizational mentality.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards
Claude Giroux (NMC), Valtteri Filppula (NMC), Jakub Voracek, Brayden Schenn, Sean Couturier, Matt Read, Dale Weise, Michael Raffl, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Nick Cousins, Scott Laughton, Greg Carey, Colin McDonald, Taylor Leier

Defense
Andrew MacDonald, Radko Gudas, Brandon Manning, Shayne Gostisbehere, T.J. Brennan, Will O’Neill, Jesper Pettersson

Goaltender
Michal Neuvirth, Anthony Stolarz

Notable Exemptions

Ivan Provorov, Travis Konecny, Samuel Morin, Carter Hart

Key Decisions

The Flyers have to protect two players – both of whom are probably not deserving of the no movement clause they have been granted. Giroux had his second straight offensively disappointing season. At $8.275 MM a season until 2022, the Flyers have created a really difficult situation for themselves. And although previous GM Paul Holmgren was somehow able to unload Mike Richards prior to his momentous fall from grace, Giroux is already known to be an albatross. He’s still producing, with 14 goals and 58 points in his last outing, but he is struggling to be a difference maker against tough competition. Filppula only played 20 games this past season for Philadelphia, so any criticism might be premature. But the well-rounded center has only broken 20 goals twice in his career, most recently 4 seasons ago. He seems rather redundant on a team with lots of mediocre offensive talents.

Voracek might also be slightly overpaid for what he brings to the team ($8.25 MM), as his possession metrics have trended consistently downward over the course of four seasons. That said, he was Philadelphia’s leading scorer in 2016-17 and has a secure roster spot. He’s only two years removed from an All-Star appearance, but is he dominant enough to carry an offense if another key member struggles again? Simmonds is an obvious keeper for the physical edge he brings along with his consistent production.  The net-front presence and leadership skills make him a prime candidate for captain if Giroux were somehow jettisoned in the near future. Both Schenn and Couturier are promising key pieces to the future of the squad, and had solid outings last season.

From here, the decision at forward gets difficult. Weal had solid underlying metrics and showed flexibility in his game. Does GM Ron Hextall believe there is there more to his game, and if so, is he worth signing as a UFA before the expansion draft, burning a protection slot? Probably not. Some believe Cousins is worth protecting, as he is still young at 23 years old, and shown potential at the AHL level. With the other players vying for the position, however, the organization would have to be incredibly high on his ability to piece it all together next season.

The three serious remaining choices – Laughton, Raffl, and Bellemare – a group which likely contains the player to be claimed by Vegas, poses a question which will be entirely decided by organizational philosophy. Laughton is the player who has the highest upside but also the greatest potential for bust. Mike Raffl is a consistent producer whose ability would guarantee a certain amount of offense on a forward corps that can really struggles over long stretches. Bellemare is your classic heart-and-soul player – his latest perfomance in the World Championships put that on display for all onlookers. In the end, based on the praise afforded him by the coaching staff and other players, as well as his assistant captainship, Bellemare could easily find himself as the final protected player. Whether that is the correct long-term decision will be a topic of great scrutiny.

On defense, there are very few players signed. Gudas and Gostisbehere will absolutely be protected, so the third choice is the only one up for debate. Many believe that MacDonald is considered the veteran savvy anchor, but his possession stats have been poor, while his turnover frequency has been disturbing. He plays over 20 minutes a night, but hasn’t performed as consistently as a top-pairing player should. Manning still has room to improve, is four years younger, and posts a positive Corsi influence (51.3%) on a corps that truly floundered all season. Neither is going to be a game breaker for Vegas, but it would seem odd that Philadelphia wouldn’t roll the dice and expose MacDonald in hopes that his $5 MM contract for three more seasons could be removed from the books.

The goaltending decision will be an interesting one for outside watchers. With Steve Mason gone, Neuvirth is obviously their tender going forward, correct? Well, perhaps not. Neuvirth’s stats (.901 SV%) really don’t justify his protection, and especially considering the forward situation, he would almost certainly not be claimed. Stolarz is the goaltender of the immediate future for the team and will see quite a bit of duty this year. The 6’6″ former London Knight is going to be relied upon to take a step forward, and his progression in Lehigh Valley has been quite promising. Exposing him could backfire in a way that leaving Neuvirth open for taking could not. If the team is serious about a youth movement, his value as an asset needs to be shielded.

After quite a few tough determinations, and trying to be realistic about the organization’s valuation of certain players, what follows is the final projection for Philadelphia.

Projected Protection List

Scheme: 7F / 3D / 1G

Forwards
Claude Giroux (NMC)
Valtteri Filppula (NMC)
Sean Couturier
Wayne Simmonds
Brayden Schenn
Jakub Voracek
Pierre-Edouard Bellemare

Defensemen
Shayne Gostisbehere
Radko Gudas
Brandon Manning

Goaltender
Anthony Stolarz

Snapshots: Morin, Devils, Balinskis

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Travis Morin will be staying in Texas next season, after the Texas Stars captain signed a one-year AHL deal today. The 33-year old forward has been one of the more impressive scoring threats in the AHL for years, and recorded another 55 points this past season. With 468 points in 548 games, you’d think Morin would have gotten more of a look at the NHL, but he’s only spent 13 games there over his career.

Texas finished out of the playoffs this season, but will hope Morin will bring back his offensive touch to a group that should be improved in 2017-18. Mark McNeill, acquired at the deadline from the Chicago Blackhawks, will be an especially important addition should he not be able to crack the Dallas lineup next year.

  • The New Jersey Devils scouting staff is preparing “like we’re making the No. 1 pick” according to Mike Morreale of NHL.com, though there still does exist the possibility that the team would trade down. The team won’t make that final decision until much closer to the draft, but it’s clear that they have interest in both projected top picks. Paul Castron, the team’s director of amateur scouting, talks about how Nolan Patrick’s injury shouldn’t be held against him, and that Nico Hischier has made a meteoric rise up everyone’s draft boards this season. For a team looking to turn their franchise around quickly, they’ll have to decide whether one of the top two names can help them in the short-term, or if moving down a few spots in exchange for an NHL-ready player makes more sense.
  • Keep an eye on Uvis Balinskis from Dinamo Riga of the KHL and most recently the Latvian team at the World Championships. He’s now represented by Dan Milstein of Gold Star Hockey, who claims that the “NHL is next” for his client. Balinskis is “open for business” according to Milstein, and was impressive at the tournament. Balinskis played half the season for Riga after moving up from the MHL, and recorded 5 points in 21 games. The left-handed defenseman is just 20-years old and could have a professional future in North America should he continue to develop his two-way style.

Metro Division Notes: Capitals, Smith, Flyers, Shero

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With perhaps the most complete team top-to-bottom in franchise history, the Washington Capitals believed they had all the pieces to finally propel themselves past the arch-rival Pittsburgh Penguins and into the Eastern Conference Final for the first time in Alex Ovechkin’s 12-year NHL career. However, after yet another disappointing defeat at the hands of the Penguins, Washington must now once again go back to the drawing board in search of the right formula. Unlike in years past when the roster’s shortcomings were easy to identify, Capitals GM Brian McLellan will have a much tougher time this summer identifying an obvious solution to the team’s deficiencies, as Isabelle Khurshudyan of The Washington Post writes.

As Khurshudyan notes, since assuming the top job with the Caps, MacLellan has strategically set about filling holes on the roster as he attempted to construct a championship team. First he went to work to address the team’s defense corps, inking veteran blue liners Matt Niskanen and Brooks Orpik as free agents in the summer of 2014. The next year, the GM brought in Justin Williams and T.J. Oshie via free agency and trade respectively, to “bolster the top-six.” Last summer, MacLellan dealt two draft picks to Montreal for Lars Eller and signed Brett Connolly to add more speed and skill to the team’s third line. The cherry on top was acquiring prized, puck-moving defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk at the trade deadline, adding an impact player to an already stacked lineup while at the same time keeping him from going to a conference rival (it was believed Pittsburgh and the N.Y. Rangers were also in the Shattenkirk sweepstakes). While it all added up to perhaps the best team in the league on paper, in the end Washington couldn’t exorcise their postseason demons and once again are left wondering what could have been.

Clearly MacLellan will again try to construct a Stanley Cup-caliber club but with Oshie, Shattenkirk, Karl Alzner and Williams all scheduled to be UFA’s, and with less than $22MM available in projected cap space, it’s likely the team will lose at least two key contributors from that group. Complicating matters is the fact that Evgeny Kuznetsov, Andre Burakovsky and Dmitry Orlov will be RFA’s and in line for significant raises over their 2017 salaries. Barring some savvy salary cap maneuverings this summer, it’s quite possible the Capitals best chance to win a Stanley Cup with Ovechkin on the roster just passed them by.

More from the Metro:

  • Though many suspected the New York Rangers would land the aforementioned Shattenkirk at the trade deadline, the team instead balked at paying the higher price and made a less expensive move for fellow blue liner Brendan Smith. Like many deadline acquisitions, Smith struggled at times while settling into a new organization and adapting to a different system but the veteran blue liner found his stride in the postseason, providing much needed bite and steady play on the back end for the Blueshirts. It’s common knowledge the Rangers will attempt to upgrade the puck-moving ability and mobility on the team’s blue line but Smith showed he may be part of that solution and the Rangers might be wise to consider re-signing the pending UFA. For his part, Smith would welcome a return to Manhattan, according to Brett Cyrgalis of the New York Post, saying: “I really enjoyed being here. I like the guys, the group.” After making $2.75MM in 2016-17, Smith will undoubtedly be able to generate offers in the range of $4MM annually on the open market. But at just 28 years old, re-signing Smith to a three or four-year pact at that price point might prove to be more prudent than luring the top prospective UFA blue liner, Shattenkirk, to the Blueshirts.
  • While the 2016-17 campaign will go down as a disappointing one for the Philadelphia Flyers, Dave Scott, president and CEO of the club’s parent company, Comcast Spectacor, would rather focus on the successful development of the organization’s younger players, as Sam Carchidi of Philly.com writes. GM Ron Hextall has avoided quick fixes in the free agent and trade markets and instead patiently rebuilt the team, focusing on the draft-and-develop model. Even though the team failed to qualify for a postseason berth, the successful debut of prized defense prospect Ivan Provorov served notice that Hextall’s plan is beginning to bear fruit. Carchidi noted that Scott is also excited about the potential of prospects Oskar Lindblom and Mike Vecchione. It also doesn’t hurt the Flyers rebuild that Philadelphia jumped several spots in the draft lottery, snagging the #2 overall selection and the opportunity to select one of Nolan Patrick, the consensus top talent in this draft for much of the last year, or Nico Hischier to further bolster an impressive pool of young talent. If Hextall can find a competent starting goaltender, either in free agency or via trade, it wouldn’t be out of the question to see Philadelphia make a huge leap in the standings in 2017-18 and qualify for the postseason.
  • The New Jersey Devils may not have enjoyed much on-ice success in 2016-17 but those struggles were mitigated at least somewhat by overcoming the odds to win the NHL draft lottery. Now the Devils will have the chance to add an impact offensive talent to a roster that badly needs more skill. But lost in the shuffle of New Jersey’s good fortune is the fact the team also has two second-round choices, their own and Boston’s courtesy of the 2016 trade deadline trade of Lee Stempniak to the Bruins. While not nearly as valuable as the first overall selection, boasting two second-round picks will give the club a chance to add two more good young players to the system. However, as Chris Ryan of NJ.com notes, Devils GM Ray Shero does not have a particularly good track record of success in the second round. Going back to his days as GM in Pittsburgh, Shero and his teams have made a total of eight choices in the second round. Of that group, Scott Harrington (#54 overall in 2011) leads the way in NHL games played (47), goals (1) and points (4). Of course it is fair to point out that Shero’s recent selections are still young enough to carve out successful big league careers. In fact, goaltender Tristan Jarry (#44 overall in 2013) would be in line to assume the understudy role in Pittsburgh, assuming the team moves Marc-Andre Fleury after the season. Still, if New Jersey’s rise back to relevance is to happen sooner rather than later, Shero would do well to find quality players with the team’s two second-rounders in June.

Offseason Keys: New Jersey Devils

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While the expansion draft is set to headline a busy NHL offseason, there are still several other storylines for each team in the months ahead. Here is a closer look at what lies ahead for the New Jersey Devils.

Last offseason, Devils GM Ray Shero took a big swing with the addition of Taylor Hall up front in the hopes that he would bolster their offense.  That didn’t exactly happen as the team managed one fewer goal scored than they did in 2015-16.  Their blueline struggled with the loss of Adam Larsson and as a result, they were near the top of the league in goals allowed.  Not surprisingly, those two issues resulted in a tie for 27th place overall meaning that it’s time to go back to the drawing board for Shero who has a few intriguing decisions to make this summer.

The Number One Pick – Keep Or Trade?

While there weren’t many good things happening on the ice in New Jersey, they did get some good news off it with their victory in the NHL Draft Lottery.  Unfortunately for them, this draft class lacks the top flight star that we’ve seen the last couple of years while there isn’t even a consensus top selection.

Accordingly, many wonder if this might be an appropriate time to deal the top pick away.  There isn’t a whole lot of precedent for doing so but with young, cheap, and controllable talent being much more valuable now in the salary cap era, the Devils could potentially land a core player that could make an impact right away.

If they decide to keep the pick, it’s likely between a pair of centers for the top spot in Nolan Patrick (Brandon, WHL) and Nico Hischier (Halifax, QMJHL).  Patrick is more of the all-around player but Hischier could certainly be enticing to a team that still needs to add some offensive punch to their lineup.

The Kovalchuk Situation

Although Ilya Kovalchuk retired from NHL action in 2013 and the team is eating a small cap hit of $250K per season through 2024-25 in salary cap recapture, the Devils are poised to facilitate a move that will allow them to get something for a player that isn’t playing for them.

Apr 25, 2013; Newark, NJ, USA; New Jersey Devils right wing Ilya Kovalchuk (17) skates with the puck during the second period of their game against the Pittsburgh Penguins at the Prudential Center. Mandatory Credit: Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY SportsKovalchuk has made it known that he would like to take himself off the Voluntary Retired List and return to NHL action next season.  He can do so and enter free agency if the 30 other teams approve.  That’s not going to happen which opens up a sign-and-trade scenario.

While the 34 year doesn’t appear to have much interest in returning to New Jersey, the team still has some leverage in that they have to get good enough value in a deal to entice them to facilitate Kovalchuk’s return, especially given the weak free agent market up front in terms of impact forwards.  It’s not likely that they’ll command a premium return but Shero should be able to at least add an asset or two which, for someone that ‘retired’ a few years ago, is still not bad.  He could opt to try to add draft picks but he could also wind up with a player in return, especially if the acquiring team needs to shed some salary to fit Kovalchuk onto their payroll.

Add Defensive Help

The Devils didn’t have the deepest of defense corps before they moved Larsson last offseason and they certainly missed his presence on the back end in 2016-17.  They’re missing a true shutdown defender that can anchor a penalty kill and be counted on in late game situations and while John Moore scored 12 goals this season, he’s far from the key offensive threat that any team with eyes on a playoff push needs.

Accordingly, expect the blueline to be something New Jersey will focus on this offseason.  If they do dangle the number one pick, they could potentially add a core defender with several years of team control which.  It’s unlikely that they’ll do the opposite of last year and trade a key forward for a defender but they could conceivably look to the trade route to upgrade their bottom half.

It also wouldn’t be surprising to see Shero take a run at the biggest fish on the back end in free agency in Kevin Shattenkirk.  The Devils have just $51.6MM committed in payroll for next season and have the cap space to make a big splash.  There are several other players who could step in and play a top four role for them so there’s a good chance that they will be look to be active on the open market in July.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Should Flyers Consider Moving No. 2 Pick?

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One week ago, Philadelphia Flyers’ general manager Ron Hextall said he would listen to trade offers for his recently won No. 2 overall pick in this year’s NHL Draft, which created some discussion on whether a team should consider doing that. The Flyers are hardly at the bottom of the pack as they leapfrogged most of the struggling teams to go from the 13th overall pick to the second pick. The belief is they could trade the pick, which would likely net them a young Nolan Patrick or a Nico Hischier, and bring in a huge package that could net them success immediately. (Even possible rumors of Colorado packing Matt Duchene and Gabriel Landeskog have been suggested as a possibility.)

CSN Philly’s writers Tom Dougherty, Jordan Hall and Greg Paone discussed the pros and cons of whether Hextall should even be receptive to moving the pick. Dougherty writes that the team can’t even consider the move. It was the biggest jump in NHL lottery history and shouldn’t be taken for granted. He believes the teams should hold onto either Patrick or Hischier and continue building from there.

Hall is quick to point out that Hextall’s strategy has been to build a franchise from within, so why would the Flyers GM change suddenly. Even if this isn’t the strongest draft, the No. 2 pick should get them one top-notch playmaker and that will only make Hextall’s plan more successful. Paone believes that the team should look at it differently, although he is quick to point out that he doesn’t see the Flyers making a trade, but he points out that the draft, in any sport, has too many busts for a team to not consider making a trade. Trading that pick for a young, already established NHL player would make more sense in many ways.

The Flyers have a nice team already with core players Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux, Branden Schenn and Wayne Simmons all about to hit their prime and plenty of youth not far behind. So which is better, adding another piece of youth or packaging that piece for a king’s ransom?

Morning Notes: Seattle, Entry Draft, Hornqvist

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Fans wondering where the next NHL expansion franchise will be got a candid answer from a connected figure today, when player agent Allan Walsh of Octagon Hockey tweeted out a timeline expectation. “Expect an NHL team in Seattle no later than 2020-21, as soon as arena renovations completed” Walsh wrote, while linking to a piece by Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times outlining the interest of two investment groups to increase parking and transit around the KeyArena. While there is still no guarantee that Seattle or the NHL would be ready to form a partnership before the next collective bargaining agreement is signed and put into effect, but this is a good sign for the hockey fans in the Pacific Northwest.

Seattle has long been considered an option for NHL expansion, because of its experience in the past as a professional sports city and the success of the Seattle Thunderbirds (previously the Breakers), who will play in the WHL final for the second consecutive season this year. While it isn’t a done deal by any means, Seattle does look like the next stomping grounds for NHL expansion.

  • NHL.com writers Mike Morreale, Adam Kimelman, and Guillaume Lepage released their first post-lottery mock drafts today, with two of the three expecting the New Jersey Devils to select Nolan Patrick first overall. While the Patrick or Nico Hischier debate for first and second overall rages, it is interesting to note that all three writers had a different player going third overall. Miro Heiskanen, Gabriel Vilardi and Casey Mittelstadt each take a turn in that spot, showing the lack of consensus there is over prospects past the pair of centermen. Some of the most interesting picks may happen from 3-10 this year, with the possibility of more movement than usual on the trade front. Without much of a consensus, it may come down to positional need for some teams, especially because of the depth of centers and defense in this year’s draft.
  • The Pittsburgh Penguins say that Brian Dumoulin, Carl Hagelin and Patric Hornqvist are all game-time decisions after missing the morning skate today. Hornqvist had to leave game 2 early after blocking a shot, but has been an extremely effective player once again for the Penguins this playoffs. He already has five points in seven games, but his power-presence makes a big impact on the game even when he doesn’t score. After another 20-goal season that saw him increase his physicality and forechecking dominance, he’ll be a candidate for an early extension this year. At 30, he’ll be entering the final season of his current five-year deal, and will be looking for another long-term contract before he hits free agency.

NHL Draft Lottery Results

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The lottery balls were picked, the cards were flipped, and the New Jersey Devils will be selecting first in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft. New Jersey was the winner of this year’s NHL Draft Lottery, jumping up four spots to take over the top pick. Against all odds, just an 8.5% chance at #1, they will now have their pick of all the top available prospects come Friday, June 23rd. The Philadelphia Flyers will pick second and the Dallas Stars will pick third, as the balls fell their way as well. Philadelphia leaped forward eleven slots and Dallas up five slots.

With three teams “winning” the lottery, it’s a tough pill to swallow for the Colorado Avalanche. One of the worst teams in recent memory, the 2016-17 Colorado Avalanche finished the season with just 48 points, 21 less than the Vancouver Canucks at 29th. Yet, the Avs may miss out entirely on selecting a franchise player in a draft without a consensus star atop the charts. It’s also an unfortunate start for the expansion Vegas Golden Knights. Given the same odds at the third-worst team in the league, Vegas will instead select sixth and will be hard-pressed to find a player ready to jump immediately to the NHL, even though they’ll likely be hungry for help.

For Metropolitan Division foes New Jersey and Philadelphia, the question now becomes: who goes #1? Unlike the past two years – Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews – there is no consensus top prospect in 2017. Heading into 2016-17, Canadian forward Nolan Patrick, of the WHL’s Brandon Wheat Kings, was considered the favorite to go first overall. However, after a season filled with injuries, that status is far from a sure thing. The last player to be taken #1 following a final junior season spent mostly on the sidelines was Gord Kluzak by the Boston Bruins in 1982, and Kluzak played only four full NHL seasons before his injuries caught up with him. Patrick did score 46 points in 33 games this season, and racked up 102 points in just 72 games last season, but as they say, “the most important ability is availability”. Flying up draft boards over the last year has been Swiss center Nico Hischier of the QMJHL’s Halifax Mooseheads, and with questions lingering about Patrick, Hischier may wind up as 2017’s top pick. While Hischier doesn’t quite have the size and strength of Patrick, he has all the offensive ability. The swift scorer recorded 86 points in 57 games this season for Halifax and put on a show for Switzerland at the World Juniors.

It’s a difficult choice for the Devils, but one that GM Ray Shero and the New Jersey front office are happy to make. And GM Ron Hextall and the Flyers should be content with the runner-up.

NHL Draft Lottery Notes: Odds, History, Viewing

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For the fourteen teams that missed the playoffs and the expansion Vegas Golden Knights, they have one thing in common: they’re hoping Bill Daly is holding a card with their logo on it, announcing that they have the first overall pick.

At 7pm central, NBC, CBC, and Sportsnet will show the NHL Draft Lottery as the Colorado Avalanche lead all teams in terms of percentage for receiving the #1 pick. Below are the odds:

Colorado Avalanche — 18.0%
Vancouver Canucks — 12.1%
Vegas Golden Knights — 10.3%
Arizona Coyotes — 10.3%
New Jersey Devils — 8.5%
Buffalo Sabres — 7.6%
Detroit Red Wings — 6.7%
Dallas Stars — 5.8%
Florida Panthers — 5.4%
Los Angeles Kings — 4.5%
Carolina Hurricanes — 3.2%
Winnipeg Jets — 2.7%
Philadelphia Flyers — 2.2%
Tampa Bay Lightning 1.8%
New York Islanders — 0.9%

TSN has a lengthy writeup on the history of the lottery and how the current format differs from other versions. The biggest change for the draft is that instead of the worst team being guaranteed, at worst, a second overall pick, they are only promised a top four pick. This was placed to discourage teams from “tanking” to draft top-end talent, which hasn’t completely negated the idea of tanking as Toronto won the right to draft Auston Matthews last season with the #1 pick while securing the worst record in the NHL.

What’s new to 2017?  From Sportsnet:

For just the second time in NHL draft lottery history, the top three picks are in play. This rule was implemented by the league in 2016 to dull incentive for any team to finish lower in the standings (i.e., tanking).

The odds of winning the second and third draws increases on a proportional basis depending on which team claimed the previous draw.

The addition of a 15th lottery team, Vegas, into the mix also affects the winning percentages.

This draft is different too, since the top two picks for the first time in three seasons are not considered the “generational talent” that Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, Matthews or Patrik Laine were when looking back at the one and two overall picks respectively.

This isn’t to besmirch the top two candidates, Nolan Patrick or Nico Hischier. After all, “can’t miss” prospects have fooled scouts and analysts before while prospects that scouts didn’t think were as good sometimes exceeded expectations.

But before the talent can be chosen, there needs to be an order. Tonight will determine that.

Specifics: 

Time: 7pm CST
Where to watch: CBC, Sportsnet, NBC

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