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Nico Hischier

NHL Draft Lottery Results

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The lottery balls were picked, the cards were flipped, and the New Jersey Devils will be selecting first in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft. New Jersey was the winner of this year’s NHL Draft Lottery, jumping up four spots to take over the top pick. Against all odds, just an 8.5% chance at #1, they will now have their pick of all the top available prospects come Friday, June 23rd. The Philadelphia Flyers will pick second and the Dallas Stars will pick third, as the balls fell their way as well. Philadelphia leaped forward eleven slots and Dallas up five slots.

With three teams “winning” the lottery, it’s a tough pill to swallow for the Colorado Avalanche. One of the worst teams in recent memory, the 2016-17 Colorado Avalanche finished the season with just 48 points, 21 less than the Vancouver Canucks at 29th. Yet, the Avs may miss out entirely on selecting a franchise player in a draft without a consensus star atop the charts. It’s also an unfortunate start for the expansion Vegas Golden Knights. Given the same odds at the third-worst team in the league, Vegas will instead select sixth and will be hard-pressed to find a player ready to jump immediately to the NHL, even though they’ll likely be hungry for help.

For Metropolitan Division foes New Jersey and Philadelphia, the question now becomes: who goes #1? Unlike the past two years – Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews – there is no consensus top prospect in 2017. Heading into 2016-17, Canadian forward Nolan Patrick, of the WHL’s Brandon Wheat Kings, was considered the favorite to go first overall. However, after a season filled with injuries, that status is far from a sure thing. The last player to be taken #1 following a final junior season spent mostly on the sidelines was Gord Kluzak by the Boston Bruins in 1982, and Kluzak played only four full NHL seasons before his injuries caught up with him. Patrick did score 46 points in 33 games this season, and racked up 102 points in just 72 games last season, but as they say, “the most important ability is availability”. Flying up draft boards over the last year has been Swiss center Nico Hischier of the QMJHL’s Halifax Mooseheads, and with questions lingering about Patrick, Hischier may wind up as 2017’s top pick. While Hischier doesn’t quite have the size and strength of Patrick, he has all the offensive ability. The swift scorer recorded 86 points in 57 games this season for Halifax and put on a show for Switzerland at the World Juniors.

It’s a difficult choice for the Devils, but one that GM Ray Shero and the New Jersey front office are happy to make. And GM Ron Hextall and the Flyers should be content with the runner-up.

NHL Draft Lottery Notes: Odds, History, Viewing

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For the fourteen teams that missed the playoffs and the expansion Vegas Golden Knights, they have one thing in common: they’re hoping Bill Daly is holding a card with their logo on it, announcing that they have the first overall pick.

At 7pm central, NBC, CBC, and Sportsnet will show the NHL Draft Lottery as the Colorado Avalanche lead all teams in terms of percentage for receiving the #1 pick. Below are the odds:

Colorado Avalanche — 18.0%
Vancouver Canucks — 12.1%
Vegas Golden Knights — 10.3%
Arizona Coyotes — 10.3%
New Jersey Devils — 8.5%
Buffalo Sabres — 7.6%
Detroit Red Wings — 6.7%
Dallas Stars — 5.8%
Florida Panthers — 5.4%
Los Angeles Kings — 4.5%
Carolina Hurricanes — 3.2%
Winnipeg Jets — 2.7%
Philadelphia Flyers — 2.2%
Tampa Bay Lightning 1.8%
New York Islanders — 0.9%

TSN has a lengthy writeup on the history of the lottery and how the current format differs from other versions. The biggest change for the draft is that instead of the worst team being guaranteed, at worst, a second overall pick, they are only promised a top four pick. This was placed to discourage teams from “tanking” to draft top-end talent, which hasn’t completely negated the idea of tanking as Toronto won the right to draft Auston Matthews last season with the #1 pick while securing the worst record in the NHL.

What’s new to 2017?  From Sportsnet:

For just the second time in NHL draft lottery history, the top three picks are in play. This rule was implemented by the league in 2016 to dull incentive for any team to finish lower in the standings (i.e., tanking).

The odds of winning the second and third draws increases on a proportional basis depending on which team claimed the previous draw.

The addition of a 15th lottery team, Vegas, into the mix also affects the winning percentages.

This draft is different too, since the top two picks for the first time in three seasons are not considered the “generational talent” that Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, Matthews or Patrik Laine were when looking back at the one and two overall picks respectively.

This isn’t to besmirch the top two candidates, Nolan Patrick or Nico Hischier. After all, “can’t miss” prospects have fooled scouts and analysts before while prospects that scouts didn’t think were as good sometimes exceeded expectations.

But before the talent can be chosen, there needs to be an order. Tonight will determine that.

Specifics: 

Time: 7pm CST
Where to watch: CBC, Sportsnet, NBC

Western Notes: Mazanec, Schmaltz, Draft Rankings

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The Nashville Predators have recalled Marek Mazanec from the Milwaukee Admirals, and will keep him around as an emergency goaltender. The Admirals were eliminated from the AHL playoffs last night, losing 3-2 in overtime to the Grand Rapids Griffins. In a three game series sweep, the Griffins put 10 goals past Mazanec on 106 shots. He’ll practice with the team as a “Black Ace” for the remainder of the playoffs.

Nashville didn’t make any further call ups which is interesting after the news that Kevin Fiala will not be able to return these playoffs. Perhaps Craig Smith or Calle Jarnkrok, who both missed game one after being present in the morning skate will return in time for the next matchup on Friday night.

  • The St. Louis Blues have recalled Jordan Schmaltz from the AHL and returned Petteri Lindbohm. Because they are only allowed three rotating callups, they’ll use Schmaltz as their defensive insurance until his next playoff series starts on May 3rd. The Chicago Wolves defeated the Charlotte Checkers in five games, but are still waiting on the other series’—some of which have played just two games—to finish around the league before moving on to face those Griffins that defeated the Admirals. Schmaltz will likely be sent back down, unless an injury were to strike one of the Blues’ defenders.
  • Bob McKenzie and TSN have released their latest draft rankings, which will be their second-last attempt at figuring out which amateur player is regarded highest around the league. The ranking still has Nolan Patrick at #1, though it is basically a tie between he and Nico Hischier. The team at TSN had to survey 23 different teams to break the deadlock, when they normally just use 10. Patrick and Hischier are followed by Gabe Vilardi from Windsor, and the late rising Miro Heiskanen, who has forced himself into the conversation for the top three. With the top four lottery teams all being from the Western Conference there is a great chance the first pick (and perhaps the second, third and fourth) will belong to one of them.

NHL Central Scouting Releases Final Rankings

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NHL Central Scouting has released their final rankings of the eligible prospects for the 2017 Entry Draft, and Nolan Patrick has retained his #1 spot. Despite an injury-riddled season that saw him miss much of the first half and the entire first round of the playoffs—Brandon was swept without their best player—the Wheat Kings’ superstar will fend off Nico Hischier and his rising stock.

This doesn’t necessarily mean Patrick will be selected first overall by whoever wins the draft lottery, but it does bode well for how confident scouts are with his ability to bounce back from the injuries and still be an impact player at the next level.

Hischier does hold the second spot among North American skaters, while Casey Mittelstadt takes the third spot after his outstanding season split between high school and the USHL. Mittelstadt has already committed to the University of Minnesota, but that won’t stop many teams from picking him in the top five.

Among the other notable rankings is Timothy Liljegren, who at one point was expected to be the second-overall pick in June. Now all the way down at #6 among international skaters, he may be a big prize for a mid-round selection. His draft season has been even worse than Patrick’s, after battling mono early on and fighting for ice time late in the season. He may be the third defenseman off the board behind Cale Makar and Miro Heiskanen.

Jake Oettinger easily climbs to the top ranking among North American goaltenders, and has a chance to go in the first round after his standout season at Boston University. Despite being just 17 for much of the season, Oettinger ranked among the nation’s best goaltenders putting up a .927 save percentage while going 21-11-3.

One of the biggest drops was Maxime Comtois, who was ranked 15th at mid-season but is now listed down at 30. The Victoriaville winger had a very disappointing season, but still possesses the size and offensive ability to make him an interesting choice, especially if he falls into the second round. Any team selecting him would be betting on his future development, instead of evaluating on this season.

Morning Notes: QMJHL Awards, Bartkowski, Doan

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The Golden Puck awards were last night in the QMJHL, and some big prospect names were read out. Nico Hischier, expected to go in the top two selections in this summer’s entry draft, was awarded Rookie of the Year after his 86 point season. As expected, Hischier also received the Best Professional Prospect award. Vitaly Abramov was named the Most Valuable Player, which will be music to Columbus Blue Jackets’ fans ears after selecting him 65th overall in the summer. Abramov’s 104 points were actually only 11 more than last season, as he has shown dominance since the moment he stepped into the Q.

Another big winner was Ottawa Senators prospect Thomas Chabot, who took home Defenseman of the Year and Personality of the Year. The 20-year old had an outstanding year both for Saint John and Team Canada at the World Juniors, but it is the Paul-Dumont Trophy for personality that will really excite his franchise. “Chabot demonstrated exemplary behaviour during the season,” reads the award announcement that has an exceptional history of talented players. Sidney Crosby, Nikolaj Ehlers, Jonathan Drouin, Jonathan Huberdeau, Kris Letang, Simon Gagne and Brad Richards are just some of the names that have taken home the award.

  • The NHL decided yesterday to rescind the instigator penalty given to Matt Bartkowski and fine imposed on coach Glen Gulutzan on Tuesday night, according to John Shannon of Sportsnet. The penalty comes with an automatic one-game suspension, but is always reviewed by the league. Bartkowski earned the penalty after Korbinian Holzer took a run at Matthew Tkachuk in the open ice, as the game had started to get out of hand after Mark Giordano’s hit on Cam Fowler. No suspensions will come out of the game.
  • Shane Doan has trouble balancing the thirst for a Stanley Cup victory with the desire to play for only one franchise his whole career. He tells Stephen Whyno of the Associated Press that “the honor of being able to play with the same organization my whole career is something that I don’t take lightly.” Whyno goes on to write though, that winning a Stanley Cup isn’t something Doan can do in Arizona, and that he is currently considering retirement. While some Coyotes fans may think he should have been traded at the deadline for an asset, it is refreshing to see a player with such dedication to his organization.

Morning Notes: ISS Rankings, Marchand, Girard

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The International Scouting Service (ISS) has released their latest draft rankings, and the center position dominates. Behind Nolan Patrick and Nico Hischier—who are still ranked #1-2 respectively—Gabe Vilardi slides into the #3 slot and twelve other centers appear in the top-31 names. While many of the names down the list don’t project as elite first line players, there is a lot of talent to be had to build a team from the middle. Casey Mittelstadt has jumped to number five, and Timothy Liljegren continues to drop down the list.

A name we’ve said to watch before, Owen Tippett, has moved all the way up into the #4 position and is having a strong playoff run with Mississauga. The Steelheads are through to the next round and will face the Oshawa Generals on Friday. Tippett is the best pure goal scorer in the draft, and will have an interesting case for jumping right to the NHL next season.

  • Brad Marchand will have a hearing with the Department of Player Safety on Thursday, regarding the spearing incident last night. Marchand used his stick to violently spear Jake Dotchin in the groin and was assessed a five minute major and game misconduct. With the Boston Bruins clinching a playoff spot last night, any suspension that took Marchand out for more than two games would leak into the postseason and possibly be devastating for the club. The Hart Trophy candidate has been suspended three times in the past and fined on multiple occasions. His standing as a repeat offender may mean at least one playoff game will be included.
  • The Nashville Predators have assigned Samuel Girard to the Milwaukee Admirals of the AHL. The 18-year old defenseman was eliminated from the playoffs when Shawinigan lost to Val-d’Or on Sunday. A second-round pick last summer, Girard had 75 points in 59 games and added another nine in five playoff contests. His offensive potential is incredible, and the Predators defense factory has turned undersized players into excellent all-around defenders before.
  • After playing in two games with the Red Wings, Evgeny Svechnikov has been sent back to the AHL. The young winger was held pointless, but scored the shootout winner against the Ottawa Senators on Monday night. He’ll now head down to the Grand Rapids Griffins and try to win a Calder Cup.

Prospect Notes: Comrie, Pilon, Hischier

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The Winnipeg Jets have recalled Eric Comrie, according to Gary Lawless of TSN. The young netminder will meet the team in Columbus, though it is not clear if he will get the start. Comrie was the Jets’ second-round pick in 2013, and has found moderate success in the AHL the past two years. The former WHL standout will be remembered best for his part in the 2015 World Juniors, where he and Team Canada won gold.

The younger (half) brother of former NHLer Mike Comrie, Eric isn’t an imposing figure in the net but has impressive athleticism and anticipation paired with enough size to make him NHL-viable. One of the better goaltending prospects in the league, he will hopefully one day be the answer to the long-standing issues in the Winnipeg net. The Jets rank 28th in the league in save percentage with an .899% mark, only ahead of Dallas and Colorado. If Comrie could provide even league average goaltending down the road, the team would be much better off.

  • As expected, the Hershey Bears have added Garrett Pilon on an amateur tryout now that the Kamloops Blazers have been eliminated from the WHL playoffs. The young center was signed to an entry-level deal with the Washington Capitals last week, and will now join the professional ranks for the remainder of the season. Pilon did everything he could in the Blazers 4-2 series loss at the hands of the Kelowna Rockets, registering four points in six games.
  • Speaking of first round CHL exits, the Halifax Mooseheads were eliminated on Monday and with it comes the end of the road for potential #1 pick Nico Hischier. Still in a battle with Nolan Patrick for that first overall slot, Hischier scored seven points in six games but couldn’t overcome the dominant Rouyn-Noranda Huskies. He and Patrick will now wait for the NHL combine to give one last impression on the top teams.

NHL Comparables For Top Draft Propects

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While free agency and trades tend to grab most of the offseason headlines, the annual entry draft is generally far more important to NHL teams. Controllable young talent is the life blood of any successful organization and the best way to secure that talent is through the draft. While this year’s draft crop perhaps lacks the “generational” type of player that we’ve seen in each of the two previous years (Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews), there is no shortage of young players who will be selected this June who will go on to have successful NHL careers.

A common approach when discussing 17 and 18-year-old draft prospects is to compare their potential upsides to those of present day or past NHL stars. Sidney Crosby was often compared to a young Wayne Gretzky, not solely due to possessing similar, elite offensive abilities, but also because he exuded the traits of a player that could be one of the game’s great ambassadors. McDavid, in turn was compared to a young Crosby for many of those same reasons.

In an interesting piece appearing on NHL.com, Mike Morreale takes a stab at comparing a handful of the top 2017 draft prospects to some of the day’s top NHL stars using analysis from NHL Central Scouting. Among them is potential #1 overall pick Nolan Patrick, who the scribe compares to Los Angeles Kings center Anze Kopitar, citing the former’s hockey sense and vision as the youngster’s best assets. Like the 6-foot-3, 224-pound Kopitar, Patrick has great size (6-foot-3, 198-pounds) and according to Central Scouting, his “playmaking ability with the size and reach is tremendous.”

If Patrick is not chosen first overall then that honor may well go to Nico Hischier of the QMJHL’s Halifax Mooseheads. Morreale cites Washington pivot Nicklas Backstrom as Hischier’s possible NHL comparable, identifying the latter’s hockey sense and skating ability as his top attributes. Central Scouting says “he plays a complete game but is very good offensively.”

Other prospects to make an appearance are Gabriel Vilardi and Owen Tippett, from Windsor and Mississauga of the OHL respectively, as well as USHL stars Casey Mittelstadt and Kevin Petruzzelli.

While it’s natural to project young players into some of the stars of today’s game, it’s important to note that these comparisons essentially represent the bast case scenarios for each of the prospect’s in their long term development. The words prospect and suspect are sometimes used interchangeably, reminding us that no matter how talented the prospect may be, any number of factors can prevent him from reaching his full potential. Every team hopes their top draft pick turns into a Crosby, Backstrom or Kopitar but the possibility remains that instead they end up with the next Patrik Stefan, Rostislav Klesla or Pavel Vorobiev. That same fate could befall any, or all of 2017’s top draft prospects.

Morning Notes: Patrick, Johnson, Parise

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Thought the Brandon Wheat Kings came into their WHL playoff series as underdogs, it looked like the series could be a long one because of Nolan Patrick and his recent dominance. Instead Patrick would never appear in the series, held out with a lower-body injury for all four of the Medicine Hat Tigers victories. A 3-2 win last night showed how lopsided the series was without Patrick, as the Tigers out shot Brandon 54-25.

It has been a very disappointing year for Patrick, who missed a large chunk of the season, the World Juniors and now the playoffs. Mike Morreale of NHL.com still thinks he’ll go first overall, and reminds us of some of the other injuries to top players in their draft year or immediately following. Patrick’s only real competition for the #1 spot is Nico Hischier of the Halifax Mooseheads, who was excellent in tying up his QMJHL series at 2-2. Hischier had four hits, was 10/16 on faceoffs and scored the game winner on the powerplay.

  • Tyler Johnson was back out on the ice before Tampa Bay Lightning practice today and though he’s still not sure when he’ll get back into the lineup, he told Bryan Burns of NHL.com he hopes to soon. “I better [return] or I’m going to be pretty upset,” he told Burns after the skate. Johnson has been out since the March 9th game that saw three Tampa Bat centers hurt, and would be a huge boost to a club still right in the thick of the playoff race. With Steven Stamkos upgraded to day-to-day (and taking line rushes on the top unit today), Tampa Bay might be getting healthy just in time to make some noise in the final few weeks of the season.
  • Michael Russo of the Star Tribune reports that Zach Parise was out skating at the optional practice for the Minnesota Wild today. Parise took a stick in the eye on Tuesday night and had to leave the game, a scary moment for Wild fans and players alike. The alternate captain was in all kinds of agony on the ice after smashing his head on the way down. Russo reports that though he’s likely to miss tonight’s game against the Ottawa Senators, he may return sooner than many expected. The Wild need to get back on track after going 1-7-2 in their last ten and falling within striking distance of the St. Louis Blues. While they’re definitely going to make the playoffs, if they continue playing as they are right now it would be an early exit.

Snapshots: Team USA, Patrick, Penguins

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After the US National Women’s team announced their boycott of the upcoming World Championships two weeks ago, there has been a war of words between the two sides and an outpouring of support from other professional leagues and players around the world. Now, with the tournament just a few days from starting—games are set to begin on Friday in Plymouth with Team USA facing off against Canada—there seems to be somewhat of an agreement in place.

Multiple reports including one from Frank Seravalli of TSN have the two sides very close to a deal being ratified today on equitable pay going forward. This would send the team to the tournament and bring closure to what has been a contentious period in women’s hockey. This comes on the heels of a report that the men’s team may also boycott if USA Hockey were to allow replacement players into the tournament in the women’s stead.

  • Nolan Patrick again won’t play for the Brandon Wheat Kings in their game three matchup against the Medicine Hat Tigers tonight. According to Mike Morreale of NHL.com, he remains day-to-day for the Wheat Kings with a lower-body injury. The Tigers are up 2-0 in the series, and if Patrick doesn’t return soon he might not get a chance to compete in the playoffs at all this year. That would be a disappointing end to what has been a terrible draft year for the projected number one pick. It would give Nico Hischier and the Halifax Mooseheads—who are tied 1-1 in their playoff series—even more chances to prove why he should be considered for the top selection in this summer’s draft.
  • The Pittsburgh Penguins had a fairly production practice this morning, as according to Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette they had Jake Guentzel, Ron Hainsey and Conor Sheary all on the ice. While Guentzel and Hainsey were both in non-contact jerseys, it is still a step forward as they try to get healthy for the playoffs. Coach Mike Sullivan told Mackey that Evgeni Malkin skated on his own before practice, and is “hopeful” to get him back soon.

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