Expansion Primer: Detroit Red Wings
Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.
The last time we gathered here to determine the Detroit Red Wings’ expansion draft considerations, the team was in a steep downward decline. Yet they still ended up losing a bit of a diamond in the rough, as the Vegas Golden Knights selected forward Tomas Nosek. Nosek’s been a contributor in a bottom-six role every season in Vegas’ history, robbing Detroit of some quality depth. Now, with Detroit having hit the rock-bottom of their rebuild, their expansion situation looks fairly clear-cut this time around. With a lot of young talent exempt (and no Jimmy Howard/Petr Mrazek goalie controversy), the Red Wings and general manager Steve Yzerman are in a good position coming into 2021’s Seattle expansion draft.
Eligible Players (Non-UFA)
Forwards:
Riley Barber, Tyler Bertuzzi, Adam Erne, Robby Fabbri, Dylan Larkin, Frans Nielsen, Richard Panik, Vladislav Namestnikov, Michael Rasmussen, Givani Smith, Evgeny Svechnikov, Hayden Verbeek, Jakub Vrana
Defense:
Dennis Cholowski, Danny DeKeyser, Christian Djoos, Filip Hronek, Gustav Lindstrom, Troy Stecher
Goalies:
Kaden Fulcher, Thomas Greiss
Notable Unrestricted Free Agents
F Valtteri Filppula, F Sam Gagner, F Luke Glendening, F Darren Helm, F Bobby Ryan, D Alex Biega, D Marc Staal, G Jonathan Bernier
Notable Exemptions
F Joseph Veleno, F Filip Zadina, D Jared McIsaac, D Moritz Seider, G Filip Larsson
Key Decisions
The key decisions start with Detroit’s young forward group. They’ll undoubtedly be going with the seven forwards/three defensemen protection scheme. Four of those forward spots are relatively clear-cut, with Larkin, Bertuzzi, Fabbri, and recent acquisition Vrana being protection locks. That leaves three spots remaining, but with a mix of four veterans and young forwards competing for them.
The veteran of those candidates is Namestnikov. Signed to a two-year, $4MM deal prior to 2020-21 to provide some veteran presence during their rebuild, Namestnikov had his worst offensive season to date with just 17 points in 53 games. His defensive metrics were mediocre, which is on-brand for the versatile Russian forward. Detroit was Namestnikov’s fourth team since the beginning of 2019-20, and if left unprotected, Seattle could be his fifth.
However, there’s a trio of three younger forwards who could also vie for those spots. Erne, Rasmussen, and Svechnikov all looked good with the Wings this season. It was an especially important season for Svechnikov, who’s struggled with frequent injuries. He rebounded this year for eight points in 21 games while posting incredibly impressive possession metrics. Erne had a nice rebound season after a ghastly 2019-20 performance, scoring 11 goals and 20 points in 45 games. While his 15.5% shooting rate doesn’t scream sustainability, the 26-year-old showed nice flashes this season. There’s also Rasmussen, who’s still a developing project despite already playing in over 100 NHL contests. Drafted ninth overall in 2017, Rasmussen’s now totalled 30 points in 102 NHL games, including 12 points in 40 games last season. He’s consistently posted decent possession results, suggesting that the goal-scoring touch he had in juniors could be coming.
Detroit faces a similar quandary on defense with three names fighting for two spots. Hronek’s protection is a foregone conclusion, but Stecher, Cholowski, and Lindstrom are names that could fall into those last two spots.
Stecher sits as effectively a more impressive Namestnikov. Joining Detroit as a free agent prior to this season, Stecher settled nicely into a top-four role, posting admirable defensive metrics considering the hacked-together situation that was Detroit’s defense. However, like Namestnikov, he’s under contract for just one more season and there’s no guarantee that he stays. There’s also a pair of younger defenders in Cholowski and Lindstrom. Cholowski was a first-round pick in 2016 and showed great potential in his 2018-19 rookie season, but has stagnated at all levels since then. Detroit is willing to play the wait-and-see game with the young defender, who may see a full-time role again next year after just 16 games played in 2020-21. Lindstrom’s a year younger and doesn’t have as much upside, but he’s cobbled together four assists in 29 NHL games and could have third-pairing potential.
Projected Protection List
F Tyler Bertuzzi
F Adam Erne
F Robby Fabbri
F Dylan Larkin
F Michael Rasmussen
F Evgeny Svechnikov
F Jakub Vrana
D Dennis Cholowski
D Filip Hronek
D Troy Stecher
Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist
When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined. Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined. In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.
Forwards (3): Vladislav Namestnikov, Frans Nielsen, Richard Panik
Defensemen (1): Danny DeKeyser
There are very few pickings here that the Kraken would be interested in, and Detroit is likely to emerge from the expansion draft unscathed. While Detroit will have some depth forwards exposed, Seattle can likely find cheaper and better options elsewhere. Seattle could end up taking an AHL skater with limited upside like Lindstrom or Smith, or take a pending UFA like Glendening if they really don’t like any of their options.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Central Notes: Zadorov, Hagel, Glendening, Stars
The Blackhawks are starting to find some common ground in negotiations with pending RFA defenseman Nikita Zadorov, reports Scott Powers of The Athletic (subscription link). Powers notes that Zadorov’s original ask was a five-year deal with a $5.85MM AAV, one that buys out four years of UFA eligibility but is a high price for someone that is more of a fourth or fifth defenseman, especially in this marketplace. He suggests that something in the $4MM range would make more sense. The 26-year-old is owed a $3.2MM qualifying offer but also has arbitration rights which could deter Chicago from tendering it by the July 26th deadline if no deal is in place by then.
More from the Central:
- In the same column, Powers notes that the Blackhawks haven’t made any progress in contract discussions with winger Brandon Hagel. The 22-year-old was a regular for the first time this season and put up nine goals and 15 assists in 52 games. He isn’t eligible for arbitration or an offer sheet and with his limited NHL experience, it stands to reason that Chicago will be trying to keep his contract close to the $874K qualifying offer. With no leverage other than trying to stall for a better deal, this could be a contract that takes some time to get done.
- The Red Wings are interested in re-signing pending UFA center Luke Glendening, reports Kevin Allen of Detroit Hockey Now. The 32-year-old has been in trade deadline speculation for several years now given his faceoff ability (he won a career-best 60.9% of his draws this season) but Detroit has opted to hold onto him each time. Considering that fourth liners were hit hard last fall in free agency and a flat cap this summer, Glendening may be hard-pressed to get more than the $1.8MM AAV he had on his most recent contract.
- Dallas is facing a bonus overage penalty of nearly $1MM for next season, notes Mike Heika on the Stars’ team website. Miro Heiskanen, Jason Robertson, and Jake Oettinger each reached their allotted Schedule A bonuses, creating a penalty after proration of just over $927K. Penalties from 2020-21 could be amortized over two seasons but that provision isn’t available now so that amount will be deducted from their spending limit for 2021-22.
Canadiens Have Shown Interest In Luke Glendening
Red Wings center Luke Glendening is no stranger to being involved in trade deadline speculation. Veteran role players like him are always in demand at this time of year but no move ever came to fruition. However, now that he’s in the final year of his contract and Detroit already way out of playoff contention, this feels like a case of when and not if he’s dealt and there should be quite a few suitors for his services.
One of those suitors is Montreal, reports Sportsnet’s Eric Engels. The Canadiens have struggled at the faceoff dot this season and Glendening is the best in the league among qualifying centers in that regard, winning 65.7 of his draws which is well above his career 55% average. He also leads all Detroit forwards in shorthanded ice time per game and the Canadiens find their penalty kill in the bottom ten in the league.
While the 31-year-old isn’t known for his offensive contributions, he has already equalled his point production from last season with three goals and six assists through 27 games; his 0.33 point per game average is also a career best.
As is the case with many teams that are looking to buy, the salary cap will be a challenge. While Glendening’s cap hit of $1.8MM isn’t particularly exorbitant, it’s more than they can afford right now. Detroit could retain up to half of that to make a deal more affordable but that would only up the asking price. Of course, there is also the two-week quarantine period to consider from Montreal’s perspective (or any other Canadian-based team interested in acquiring him).
As things stand, it may not be a trade deadline that sees plenty of top-end talent changing hands with role players that are more affordable on the cap becoming a higher priority. For the Red Wings, they hold one of the more interesting ones in Glendening and Montreal certainly won’t be the only team calling about him in the coming weeks.
Deadline Notes: Skjei, Parise, Targets
The Florida Panthers were perhaps the most surprising team at the NHL Trade Deadline. Still competing for a playoff spot in the Atlantic Division, the Panthers nevertheless traded away a top-six forward in Vincent Trocheck and failed to acquire a defenseman, which was considered their biggest need. As it turns out, they nearly got close on a major addition. The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun writes that the Panthers were in on defenseman Brady Skjei for much of the day on Monday. After moving Trocheck, the team had hoped to fill his departed salary commitment with a term defenseman and Skjei was the top target, made available by the New York Rangers’ extension of Chris Kreider earlier in the day. However, Florida did not want to take on all of Skjei’s contract, preferring to make a hockey deal instead. LeBrun notes that Michael Matheson would have been part of the return to New York. However, taking on salary was contrary to the Rangers’ plans, and so they went for the Carolina Hurricanes’ offer of a first-round pick instead. Skjei would have made a huge difference in Florida, arguably more than on a deep blue line in Carolina, but the Panthers could not get the deal done. Expect Florida to continue scouring the trade and free agent markets this off-season for a long-term upgrade on the blue line.
- The biggest rumor that emerged on deadline day was a possible trade of Minnesota Wild star Zach Parise to the New York Islanders. Few expected that Parise, who at 35 years old still has five years left on his contract at over $7.5MM AAV, could be a potential trade candidate. Yet, both Parise and the Islanders’ Andrew Ladd had waived their respective trade protections and were merely awaiting the finalization of the deal. That of course never occurred, as Minnesota GM Bill Guerin stated that the deal was very complex and simply did not come together in time. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports that the two teams have actually been discussing the deal for some time, but concerns over balancing salary and potential cap recapture penalties should Parise retire before his contract expires halted the deal, at least for now. Guerin stated that the two sides could revisit a possible trade in the off-season, but meanwhile Parise is back to work for the Wild. Twincities.com’s Dane Mizutani writes that Parise was relatively tight-lipped about the situation and understands that trades, actual or theoretical, are part of the business. He reaffirmed that he enjoys playing in Minnesota and in no way requested a trade; he was simply willing to waive his No-Movement Clause if the Wild felt that moving him was the best decision. It will remain an interesting topic through the remainder of the season and into the off-season how well Parise and the Wild play in light of this near-blockbuster and whether the trade finally does come to fruition.
- Friedman writes that a number of players traded before the deadline nearly went elsewhere, while some players who stayed put were heavily pursued. Perhaps the most notable move could have been Robin Lehner to the Carolina Hurricanes. The Cane’s were anything but quiet at the deadline, acquiring Trocheck, Skjei, and Sami Vatanen, but failed to address goaltending, arguably their biggest need in light of recent injuries. Carolina has long been linked to Lehner dating back to the 2018 off-season (and could look at him as a free agent again this summer) but balked at the Chicago Blackhawks asking price for a rental. Two other teams that revisited players who they had previously pursued were the Calgary Flames and Edmonton Oilers. Both team made notable additions as they fight for a Western Conference playoff spot, but allegedly could have done more. Friedman notes that Calgary was in on veteran winger Wayne Simmonds for the second deadline in a row, but likely could not make the salary work, whereas Edmonton kicked the tires of Patrick Marleau after courting him as a free agent this summer. Finally, two players that received considerable interest per Friedman but did not move were Detroit Red Wings forward Luke Glendening and Philadelphia Flyers forward Scott Laughton. Detroit has little to play for this season, but have always highly valued Glendening, who has another year left on his contract. A league source told Friedman that the asking price was simply too high. As for Laughton, the Flyers made only minor moves at the deadline and could not also trade away a key bottom-six piece with term remaining on his contract. It sound as though considerable interest did not sway the team into even considering offers for Laughton.
Luke Glendening Out Two To Four Weeks
The Detroit Red Wings placed both Luke Glendening and Danny DeKeyser on injured reserve and gave an update on their status this morning. Glendening will be out two to four weeks while DeKeyser is out for “at least” two weeks. Justin Abdelkader is also listed as day-to-day.
Glendening, 30, has never been much of an offensive force for the Red Wings but is still relied upon by the coaching staff as a defensive presence. His faceoff ability has always been strong, and he’s shown a willingness to engage physically at both ends of the rink.
That defensive ability and experience actually makes Glendening an interesting trade candidate for the team if they look to shed expiring contracts at the deadline, but he’ll have to get healthy and prove he can still contribute.
For DeKeyser, missing chunks of the season has become routine. The 29-year old defenseman has played just 65 and 52 games the last two seasons, but was still logging more than 22 minutes a night for the Red Wings as a key part of their defense. With a contract that carries a $5MM cap hit through 2021-22, Detroit needs DeKeyser to be healthy and on the ice more often this season. Missing two weeks isn’t a good start.
Snapshots: Red Wings, Blues, RFAs
The Detroit Red Wings will operate without a captain once again this season, despite the expectation that Dylan Larkin will one day assume the role. Head coach Jeff Blashill told reporters including Ansar Khan of MLive that they will instead start with four alternates: Larkin, Justin Abdelkader, Frans Nielsen and Luke Glendening. Blashill and Steve Yzerman agreed to wait until the GM got to know the entire team better after taking over this offseason.
Larkin, 23, has become the face of the Red Wings franchise after putting up a career-high 32 goals and 73 points last season. As the old guard including Henrik Zetterberg, Pavel Datsyuk and recently Niklas Kronwall have moved on from their roles on the Red Wings, Larkin and other young players have taken on more and more responsibility. As the team transitions from rebuilding to contending over the next few years it seems likely that someone will eventually wear the “C” for Blashill and Yzerman, just not yet.
- The St. Louis Blues are finalizing extensions for Steve Ott and David Alexander according to Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The pair of assistant coaches will be given extensions that match the length of head coach Craig Berube, who was given a three-year deal earlier this summer. The coaching staff under Berube completed a miracle turnaround this season with the Blues, taking them from last place in the NHL to Stanley Cup champions in just a few months.
- Andy Strickland of Fox Sports Midwest has heard a few things on restricted free agents Patrik Laine and Mikko Rantanen, including about a recent short-term offer from the Winnipeg Jets to the former. The deal presented to Laine was in the “$5MM per year range” though Strickland notes that even on that short-term deal the Jets will “need to come up on money.” For Rantanen, Strickland reports that the free agent forward is not far away in terms of salary with the Colorado Avalanche and that the team’s last offer “blew past Nathan MacKinnon‘s $6.3MM AAV.”
Detroit Red Wings Sign Valtteri Filppula
The Detroit Red Wings have brought back a familiar face, signing Valtteri Filppula to a two-year contract. New GM Steve Yzerman also has a history with the veteran forward from their days with the Tampa Bay Lightning. Filppula played in Detroit for the first eight years of his career. MLive’s Ansar Khan reports the deal is for $3MM per season.
Filppula may be 35, but he continues to put up solid numbers as a bottom-six defenseman and played a major part of the New York Islanders turnaround last season. For a Barry Trotz team that focused more on defense this year, Filppula posted impressive numbers, scoring 17 goals, his most since the 2013-14 season and finished with 31 points.
With Detroit, Filppula gets a slight raise as he made $2.75MM last season. He will try and find a role somewhere on the third or fourth line and adds to a group of veterans that now have slipped to the bottom-six, including Frans Nielsen, Justin Abdelkader and Luke Glendening. He also could have been brought in to prevent too many young players being vaulted into roles they aren’t ready for as the team now has a number of prospects who are close to being NHL ready, including Filip Zadina and Joe Veleno.
Pacific Notes: Golden Knights, Oilers, Canucks
After two years of heavy turnover and maneuvering to get their franchise off to a hot start, it looks like the Vegas Golden Knights will be taking a back seat when free agency opens on July 1. While most people weren’t expecting Vegas to be active this offseason, with their cap room already used up, Ken Boehlke of SinBin.vegas writes that President of Hockey Operations George McPhee admitted the team will be inactive:
Well we’re in pretty good shape with our core group. We have basically everyone signed up and we are close on some other things. So I don’t imagine we’re going to be out looking at free agents this summer. We like the team the way it is and we like the young guys that we have coming along.
What McPhee meant when he said the team was close on some other things could be very interesting, although it could range anywhere from a potential long-term deal with restricted free agent William Karlsson, to potential deals for fellow RFA’s Nikita Gusev, Tomas Nosek, Jimmy Schuldt or veteran UFA Deryk Engelland, or even a trade to free up cap space to sign any of them.
- The Athletic’s Jonathan Willis (subscription required) looks at the potential compatibility between the Edmonton Oilers and the Winnipeg Jets, wondering if the two teams might be a perfect match for solving each of their problems. The scribe suggests the Jets could use Edmonton to help unload some of their less-significant contracts, such as Mathieu Perreault or Dmitry Kulikov, or if the Jets are more motivated, they could consider sending winger Nikolaj Ehlers, who is coming off a disappointing season, to Edmonton for a package that could include a defenseman such as Darnell Nurse or Andrej Sekera and some of Edmonton’s youth that could help bolster the team’s depth.
- Allan Mitchell of the Athletic (subscription required) writes that the Oilers are in need of an inexpensive third-line center option, one that can kill penalties, suggesting the team look via the trade market to find that player. He writes that the Oilers should consider trying to pry Montreal Canadiens’ center Phillip Danault, as well as look at Winnipeg’s Adam Lowry, Ottawa’s Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Detroit’s Luke Glendening, or Dallas’ Radek Faksa. The scribe adds that the most likely candidate that Edmonton would be able to steal away could be Pageau.
- The Vancouver Sun’s Patrick Johnston writes that the Vancouver Canucks should seriously consider trying to convince Toronto Maple Leafs unrestricted free agent Jake Gardiner to sign with them this offseason. While there have been rumors that Toronto wants to unload other contracts in hopes of keeping Gardiner in the fold, Johnston writes that Gardiner would be the perfect puck-carrying defenseman that the team hasn’t had since Alexander Edler was in his prime. However, he wonders whether the U.S.-born blue liner might prefer to avoid playing in Canada after a taking a lot of heat from Toronto fans over the years.
USA Hockey Announces 2019 IIHF World Championship Preliminary Roster
The IIHF World Championship gets underway in just a few weeks and USA Hockey has announced the first group of players that will be suiting up for them. GM Chris Drury released 17 names that will be taking part, including captain Patrick Kane. The group is an impressive list of NHL stars that could very well bring home the country’s first gold medal at the tournament in nearly 60 years. The roster so far is as follows:
G Thatcher Demko
G Cayden Primeau
G Cory Schneider
D Quinn Hughes
D Alec Martinez
D Brady Skjei
D Ryan Suter
F Alex DeBrincat
F Jack Eichel
F Luke Glendening
F Patrick Kane
F Clayton Keller
F Chris Kreider
F Dylan Larkin
F James van Riemsdyk
F Frank Vatrano
F Colin White
Trade Candidate: Luke Glendening
With the trade deadline quickly approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that have a good chance to be dealt by February 25th.
Incremental fourth line upgrades are rarely exciting but several playoff-bound teams will be looking to make them over the next week. With that in mind, Detroit center Luke Glendening is once again in trade speculation and could soon find himself on the move.
Contract
Glendening is in the second season of a four-year, $7.2MM deal that’s slightly front-loaded. The total salary over the final two years of the deal is $3.2MM. There isn’t any form of trade protection in the contract.
2018-19
Heading into the season, it seemed likely that Glendening would bounce between the third and fourth lines and play his usual checking role. Instead, he has been asked to play a more substantial role as he has been a fixture on the third line while even dabbling in Detroit’s top six from time to time. As a result, he’s on pace for career highs across the board offensively while still being one of the stronger players at the faceoff dot in the league; he ranks tenth league-wide in faceoff percentage (56.2%) among players with at least 500 draws taken this season.
Season Stats
60 GP, 9 goals, 11 assists, 20 points, +8 rating, 15 PIMS, 84 shots, 15:47 ATOI, 41.6 CF%
Potential Suitors
With two years left on his deal after this one, Glendening is someone that non-contenders could, at least in theory, look to add to upgrade their bottom six with an eye on next season. That said, the likeliest suitors are those that are looking to win now and want a faceoff/penalty kill type of specialist.
In the East, Toronto has been linked to Glendening already and had interest in him last season as well. Their fourth line center situation hasn’t been the greatest this season with rookies Par Lindholm and Frederik Gauthier having varying degrees of success in that role. Head coach Mike Babcock is also familiar with him from his days in Detroit. However, a $1.8MM AAV without any sort of offset may be too much of a premium for a team that’s pegged to be very tight to the Upper Limit beyond this season. Columbus has had all sorts of issues with center depth as of late and could certainly view him as some stability at that spot. Boston hasn’t really replaced Riley Nash (who is now with Columbus after leaving as a free agent) and while their eyes are set on more of an impact pivot at this stage, that could change if the top names go elsewhere.
Out West, Colorado isn’t interested in rental help but would like to make some sort of upgrade. They’re near the bottom of the league at the faceoff dot and would slot in nicely on their fourth line. Dallas could be in the market for depth down the middle with Martin Hanzal potentially done for the year and Jason Spezza (who has seen some time at center this season) set to become a free agent this summer. With St. Louis all of a sudden looking like possible buyers, Glendening could be the type of small upgrade they target while leaving the core parts of their roster intact.
Likelihood Of A Trade
Between his faceoff prowess and positional versatility, Red Wings GM Ken Holland should be fielding quite a few calls on Glendening if he hasn’t done so already. However, the odds of a trade getting done will likely come down to whether or not they’re willing to pay down part of the contract (they can retain up to 50%) or take a player back to offset money that way. While the 29-year-old would certainly help some contenders, his cap hit is high for someone that’s primarily going to be a fourth liner on those teams. If Detroit’s willing to do that, there’s a good chance he’ll be on the move with the Red Wings picking up a pretty good return for Glendening’s services.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.