Metropolitan Notes: Cullen, Sheary, Prince
Wild center Matt Cullen surprised some when he decided to leave Pittsburgh in free agency to return to Minnesota. While there’s no indication a trade is imminent, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette notes that a return to the Penguins could still happen depending on how Minnesota fares in the coming weeks before the trade deadline. He adds that while Cullen could draw interest from other contending teams, his preference would be to return to Pittsburgh.
Cullen’s second stint with his hometown team in Minnesota hasn’t gone as well as his first as the 41-year-old has recorded just four goals and seven assists in 49 games this season after putting back-to-back 30-plus point seasons with the Penguins. While Cullen isn’t an ideal fit for a third line pivot which is an area Pittsburgh is looking to improve, he would add some desired depth down the middle, presumably at a fairly inexpensive acquisition cost if Minnesota decides to sell in the coming weeks.
Elsewhere in the Metropolitan:
- Still with the Penguins, winger Conor Sheary is dealing with a lower-body issue, the team announced on Twitter. Sheary was able to finish Tuesday’s game against San Jose despite the injury but there’s no word on whether or not he will be available for their next game on Friday against Washington. If he can’t play, winger Ryan Reaves will likely draw back in.
- The Islanders have transferred winger Shane Prince (upper-body injury) to injured reserve retroactive to January 18th, the team announced (Twitter link). The move was made in order to activate winger Andrew Ladd off IR as he returned to the lineup against Toronto. Prince last saw action on the 18th and because of the retroactive designation, he will be eligible to be activated at any time since more than seven days have passed from the injury.
Metropolitan Notes: Sprong, Cizikas, Hakstol, Stephenson
Having already scored nine goals in his first 18 games with the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins, many wonder why Pittsburgh Penguins prospect Daniel Sprong still remains in the AHL when he could be helping out the Penguins at the NHL level.
Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazzette writes calling up Sprong is not in the plans for Pittsburgh’s general manager Jim Rutherford. The GM says that the team has historically not called up players before they thought they were ready, instead opting to allow them to develop. Bryan Rust, Jake Guentzel, Brian Dumoulin, Conor Sheary and Tom Kuhnhackl are the recent examples of players who were not rushed to the NHL.
“The important thing is, when you put a young player into this league, is he is as prepared as he can be for all aspects of the game,” Rutherford said. “If he’s not, you risk setting the player way back. That group of five, those guys were ready before they got called up, but we made sure it was at a time where they had their confidence and they could deal with setbacks.”
The team believes that Sprong still has work to do on his play without the puck, according to Rutherford. The team wants to see Sprong improve his defense as well as work on his stick/wall play. Of course, with a four-game winning streak and improved play of late, there may not be much need for him anyway.
- The New York Islanders announced earlier today they have placed Casey Cizikas on injured reserve with a lower-body injury, retroactive to Nov. 25, which means he could be activated at any time. Cizikas was injured in a game against the Ottawa Senators. The fourth-line and penalty killing center has four goals and four assists in 23 games for the Islanders. So far, the team hasn’t made any corresponding moves.
- Philly.com’s Sam Carchidi tweeted that Philadelphia Flyers general manager Ron Hextall is accompanying the team on their Western Canada trip, which could play an instrumental role on the status of head coach Dave Hakstol. The Flyers have lost 10 straight games. Carchidi adds that if a coaching change is made, a likely choice to take over would be Lehigh Valley Phantoms coach Scott Gordon in the interim.
- Isabelle Khurshudyan of The Washigton Post tweets that after suffering an injury in Saturday’s game against the Columbus Blue Jackets, Washington Capitals wing Chandler Stephenson is day-to-day. However, the team recalled Travis Boyd this afternoon from the Hershey Bears of the AHL, which suggests that Stephenson might miss some time. Stephenson, a bottom-line center, has two goals and six points in 18 games this season. Boyd has never played in the NHL before. He has three goals and 17 assists in 23 games for the Bears.
Cost Per Point: The Best Value Deals In The NHL
When working with a salary cap, especially one that has not been increasing as expected in recent year, it is vital for general managers to get the most production out of their players. Teams with players who meet the expected level of production implied by their contracts and teams that lack wasted dollars in bad, expensive deals are often the same teams that thrive in today’s NHL. Forget market size or free agent appeal, the key to a winning franchise nowadays is getting the best bang for your buck on every player on the roster. While no player can be fully quantified by their scoring, cost per point is an easy way to look at which players are producing at the most team-friendly rate and which have been more of a cap space killer than a positive member of the team. Thanks to CapFriendly, that information is readily available to fans and NHL executives alike.
The benchmark for this metric is about $100K/point, as GM’s expect those big-time forwards and offensive defenseman who they award with $6MM, $7MM, and $8MM per year contracts to be putting up 60, 70, or 80 points respectively. For the second year in a row, St. Louis Blues superstar Vladimir Tarasenko was the poster boy for this standard, coming in at exactly $100K/point with 75 points on a $7.5MM deal. Winnipeg’s Bryan Little and New Jersey’s Adam Henrique are two other notable names that hit the mark exactly, while phenoms like Sidney Crosby and Duncan Keith landing close to the $100K/point mark show that it is an accurate expectation.
However, the exception to the rule is obviously entry-level contracts. It is no secret that drafting and developing well is the best way to improve you team, beginning with affordable scoring from players on their rookie deals. Nowhere is that more apparent than in cost per point, where nine of the top ten and 17 of the top 20 best contracts were rookie deals. To no one surprise, 20-year-old MVP Connor McDavid and his 100 points on a $925K entry-level contract was far and away the best bargain in hockey. McDavid cost the Oilers only $9,250 per point in 2016-17. That will all change soon, as McDavid is set to begin an eight-year, $100MM contract in 2018-19, after which a 100-point campaign will cost Edmonton $125,000/point, closer to the expectations of a standard contract. For now, the Oilers can enjoy one more year of McDavid likely being the best deal in the NHL, as well as the best player. Entry-level deals joining McDavid in the top ten last year (in order) were Viktor Arvidsson, Artemi Panarin, teammate Leon Draisaitl, Conor Sheary, David Pastrnak, Auston Matthews, Nikolaj Ehlers, and Patrik Laine. Not all entry-level deals are created equal, so while Draisaitl and Pastrnak were second and fourth respectively in entry-level scoring, they were also on the ELC maximum deal of $925K and of slightly lesser value to their teams than the likes of Arvidsson ($632K) and Sheary ($667.5K). Panarin had the best contract in the league in 2015-16 and fell only to third with $10,980/point for the Chicago Blackhawks. Now in Columbus and on a two-year, $12MM deal, the Blue Jackets have to hope that they can continue to get 70+ point seasons out of him to maximize the value of that deal.
So, entry-level contracts aside, who was the best contract in hockey last season? Another easy answer, former Blue Jacket gamble Sam Gagner. After a horrendous 2015-16 campaign with the Philadelphia Flyers, Gagner struggled to find a new team last summer, eventually settling on a $650K “show me” deal with Columbus. Right away people tagged that contract, for a six-time 40+ point scorer, as an absolute bargain, even if Gagner simply bounced back to normal production. He did one better, posting a career-high 50 points for the Jackets and coming in at $13K/point, good enough for sixth in the NHL. Gagner has since moved on to the Vancouver Canucks, signing a three-year, $9.45MM contract on July 1st. However, if he is able to continue to produce at 40-50 point levels over that deal, his $3.15MM cap hit will remain a great bargain deal. Behind Gagner, another player on the move this summer, former Florida Panther and current Vegas Golden Knight Jonathan Marchessault had the 13th-ranked cost per point last year at $14,706/point. Marchessault had a breakout year, netting 51 points in the first season of a two-year, $1.5MM deal. Rather than take advantage of one more $750K season for a 30-goal scorer, the Panthers allowed Marchessault to be selected in the Expansion Draft and Vegas surely hopes he continues to be one of the best values in hockey in 2017-18. The final contract in the top 20 not belonging to an entry-level player, and the only 35+ veteran contract in the top 50, belongs to Marchessault’s replacement in Florida, Radim Vrbata. Vrbata returned home to Arizona last season after a down year in Vancouver the season prior, and the swift 36-year old proceeded to score 55 points, more than double his previous year’s total. On a one-year deal with a $1MM base salary, that only cost the Coyotes $18,182/point last season. Now at a base salary of $2.5MM in Florida, the Panthers hope that Vrbata isn’t starting to slow down just yet. Other impressive value contracts included Patrick Eaves, whose breakout season in Dallas led to a trade and subsequent extension with the Anaheim Ducks, Derek Ryan, who shocked the hockey world with 29 points for the Carolina Hurricanes in his first full NHL season at age 30, and a quartet of recently re-signed RFAs in Richard Panik, Ryan Dzingel, Ryan Spooner, and Jordan Martinook.
With the good comes the bad, and there were certainly some poor value contracts in the NHL last year. Many of the worst belong to players who were injured or AHL depth players that saw only limited time. With zero points in 13 games with a $1.25MM cap hit, Tampa Bay Lightning winger Erik Condra‘s value was not even quantifiable it was so bad, and at the highest salary of any player who went pointless last season. Limited to just 18 games with only four points, another Bolts forward, Ryan Callahan, was one of the worst values due to injury with $1.45MM per point on his $5.8MM cap hit. However, the truly worst contract in the NHL has to belong to a player that player a majority of the season. Sadly for a Detroit fan base that is already feeling pretty down-and-out, that designation belongs to Red Wings defenseman Danny DeKeyser, who began a six-year, $30MM extension by scoring about a third less points for the third season in a row. With 12 points in 82 games at $5MM, DeKeyser’s $416.7K/point is pretty ugly. The Buffalo Sabres struck out twice on the blue line, with both Dmitry Kulikov (five points in 47 games at $4.33MM) and Josh Gorges (six points in 66 games at $3.9MM) coming in at $866.7K/point and $650K/point respectively, though neither is known as a major point producer. The worst forward contract? Andrew Desjardins may not have been relied upon as a full-time player with much ice time last season with the Chicago Blackhawks, but with only one point in 46 games, $800K/point, it’s not difficult to see why he remains an unsigned free agent.
While statistics and analytics in hockey are normally geared toward displaying on-ice production, it is always interesting to look at the game from a business perspective. It is important for teams and fans alike to understand not just the absolute of how a player is producing, but the relative value of that production based on how much money that player is being paid. In a salary cap league, there is nothing more important that production value, and as the game grows the focus will only further tighten on scoring as a function of dollars and the cost per point metric.
Pittsburgh’s Alternative Third-Line Center Options
While many teams across the NHL still have holes to fill before the puck drops on the 2017-18 season, no vacancy has received more attention than the third-line center slot for the two-time defending champion Pittsburgh Penguins. In fact, we’ve already written about it once before. However, the scenario has changed over the last few weeks, as the new contracts for RFAs Brian Dumoulin and Conor Sheary have left the Pens with just over $3MM in salary cap space. Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post Gazette recently spoke with GM Jim Rutherford, who essentially stated that he does not plan to move out significant salary in a deal to acquire a new bottom-six center. What that means is that the Penguins are left with a much smaller margin to work with to acquire Nick Bonino‘s replacement.
So who will it be? Who it won’t be is easier to say. The pipe dreams of Colorado’s Matt Duchene or Carolina’s Jordan Staal are now all but over, as are more reasonable targets like Toronto’s Tyler Bozak or Dallas’ Radek Faksa now seem out of reach as well. The Vegas Golden Knights have not shown any indication that they are interested in moving forwards, so strike their group of suitable centers off the list as well. With each passing day, it seems a Matt Cullen return grows less and less likely as well.
What the Penguins are left with are a group of guys who fit their needs well: young, two-way centers on affordable contracts. The most common name bandied about is Detroit Red Wings forward Riley Sheahan. Sheahan struggled mightily in 2016-17 and is relatively expensive compared to some other available names at $2.075MM this season. However, Detroit desperately needs to shed salary and may have reached the end of the line with Sheahan. It could be a good match, with Sheahan very likely bouncing back on a far more talented Penguins team. Pittsburgh’s top target may be Arizona’s Jordan Martinook, who just resigned with the team, but is part of a Coyotes forward corps that is crowded with young talent. Martinook is an underrated two-way player and would fit in nicely with the Pens, but Arizona may not be keen to move him in a deal that Rutherford stated would not included salary players. The Coyotes have had their fill of picks and prospects and might be on the lookout for only veteran contributors at this point. The Penguins could turn to the Los Angeles Kings, who have great depth at center including Nick Shore and Nic Dowd. Both would fit the need nicely in Pittsburgh and come in at under $1MM. The 25-year-old Shore would be especially nice, as the team can retain RFA rights over him beyond 2017-18, but Dowd may be easier to acquire from a Kings squad that is not any closer to returning to the playoffs. One final option, staying out west, could be San Jose Sharks center Chris Tierney. It is rumored that the two sides are on rocky grounds, with Tierney signing just a one-year extension this summer, and could be looking for a trade. Tierney has proven to be a solid defensive force in the San Jose bottom six and could play the same role in Pittsburgh. The Sharks have done nothing this off-season and could see replacing Tierney with a Penguins forward prospect as at least some kind of roster shakeup.
Obviously, the available names are not of the sexy variety. The Penguins have been spoiled with center depth through their Stanley Cup years and fans are surely hoping they can find another Staal or Bonino. However, with little cap space to play with and a reluctance to change the current roster any further, this is what Rutherford is left with. Any of these guys could be a valuable piece on another strong Penguins team, as each plays a solid two-way game, but none are gonna be the big-name acquisition that many expected. Pittsburgh will be back in the Cup race again next year even if they do nothing at all and stick someone from Wilkes-Barre/Scranton at third-line center, so maybe the better question is not who will play there, but why does everyone care so much?
Snapshots: Malgin, Sheary, Walker
The Florida Panthers are a team looking for a reboot after a disappointing campaign. GM Dale Tallon seems to have adopted a total shift in philosophy after buying out Jussi Jokinen and passing on re-signing Jaromir Jagr. The team is opting for a more total youth movement, particularly on offense. In an article with NHL.com’s Alain Poupart, the undersized Denis Malgin spoke about his hopes for the 2017-18 campaign.
Malgin only scored 6 goals and 4 assists in his 47 contest in the NHL last season, but undoubtedly has skill. The former Zurich SC (Swiss A) prospect is known for his craftiness with the puck and his vision for making plays. As any 5’9 player will attest, physicality will be a huge hurdle for him going forward. Still, he only needs to look to recently-ex Panther Jonathan Marchessault to realize that solid offensive instincts can trump a small stature. Malgin, a center, will look to make a more permanent home in Florida this season, although training camp will determine where he begins the year. At only 20 years old, he has plenty of time to improve and bulk up physically.
- The Conor Sheary contract announced earlier today could turn out to be quite the bargain for the Penguins. The miniature winger’s chemistry with captain Sidney Crosby is undeniable, and he exploded with offensive production alongside him. With 53 points in only 61 games, if Sheary can maintain that sort of productive pace, he will be one of the more cost-effective wingers over the course of his contract. Speaking with the Post-Gazette’s Jason Mackey, Sheary said he hoped to prove that this past season wasn’t merely a “one-time thing”. If he can put 3 more campaigns anywhere near as successful as 2016-17, he’s assured to be paid quite a bit more on his next contract. Durability is a concern, but he did appear to absorb harder impacts less regularly as the year progressed.
- Nathan Walker of the Washington Capitals re-signed with the organization at the beginning of the month, after playing the past two seasons in Hershey. As the Capitals are in a bit of a cap crunch, they will be relying on younger, cheaper players like Walker to fill holes, especially on the third and fourth lines. Walker, like the other two players in these snapshots, needs to prove that he can overcome his short height. At only 5’8, Walker plays a game well above his size. He can handle physicality and his energy can jump-start a shift in a pinch. He also has some level of offensive capability – he’s netted 64 points through 131 AHL contests in the last two seasons. Walker is particularly interesting to trivia buffs, because were he to make an NHL appearance (as seems likely), he would be the first Australian-born player to do so, as noted by Adam Gretz of NBC Sports. Walker’s competition in camp, as of now, isn’t too intimidating. Assuming Jakub Vrana makes the lineup, Walker will only need to beat out the likes of Travis Boyd, Wayne Simpson, Riley Barber and a host of AHL journeymen and minor prospects to cement his playing time.
Penguins Sign Conor Sheary To 3-Year Deal
The Pittsburgh Penguins signed restricted free agent Conor Sheary to a three-year, $9MM contract, tweets Elliotte Friedman. The deal will be at a $3MM AAV deal. Sheary played a major role for the Stanley Cup champions last year as he broke out in his second year with the team. After scoring just seven goals in 51 games during his rookie campaign, Sheary took that next step this year, scoring 23 goals and adding 30 assists for a 53 point season. He added two goals and seven points in the playoffs as well. Sheary’s 43-point increase from the previous year is fourth behind Edmonton’s Connor McDavid (52), Nashville’s Viktor Arvidsson (45) and Boston’s David Pastrnak (44), tweets the Tennessean’s Adam Vingan.
The signing is at a team-friendly price and the 25-year-old forward is now the last restricted free agent the team had to sign. However, after the Sheary signing, the Penguins will have only $3.28MM in cap space to add more center depth to the team. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Jason Mackey suggests that may used to sign veteran Matt Cullen for next year.
Upcoming RFA Arbitrations
Next week is the last week for scheduled RFA arbitrations. So far no team or player has managed to actually make it to arbitration. Rather, parties have settled in every arbitration case prior to the arbitration hearing date. The same fate may await the following six players who make up the final set of arbitration dates.
August 2nd: Calvin de Haan – New York Islanders
The New York Islanders defenseman had a $1.97MM cap hit last season, and put up 5G and 20A in 82 games.
August 3rd: Nate Schmidt – Vegas Golden Knights
The former Washington Capitals defenseman—selected by the Vegas Golden Knights in the NHL expansion draft—put up 3G and 14A in 60 games last season. His previous cap hit was $812K.
August 3rd: Nino Niederreiter – Minnesota Wild
The 24 year-old Wild forward had a previous cap hit of $2.66MM and scored 25G and 32A in 82 games last season. Expect a significant raise.
August 4th: Mikael Granlund – Minnesota Wild
The 25 year-old Wild forward put up even better numbers than Neiderreiter with 26G and 43A in 81 games. Expect a significant raise over his previous $3MM cap hit.
August 4th: Conor Sheary – Pittsburgh Penguins
Fresh off a career season and a Stanley Cup victory, Sheary looks for a significant raise over his $667K contract. Sheary put up 23G and 30A in 61 games last season.
August 4th: Nathan Beaulieu – Buffalo Sabres
The 24 year-old defenseman scored 4G and 24A in 74 games last season. His previous cap hit was an even $1MM.
Arbitration Dates Still To Come
While the league continues to try and lock up their young players, several arbitration dates remain on the docket for the next few weeks. Arbitration hearings have started, but only two have actually taken place and none have resulted in an actual decision. Both Tomas Tatar and Viktor Arvidsson reached agreements after their hearing, signing for four and seven years respectively.
There are very few remaining dates scheduled, though still some big names on the docket. For more information on how the arbitration process works, check out Mike Furlano’s two part breakdown of the system from last summer.
The remaining arbitration dates are as follows:
July 27 – (none)
Originally scheduled: Marek Mazanec (Nashville) who signed a one-year, two-way, $650K contract. Robin Lehner (Buffal0) who signed a one-year $4MM contract.
July 28 – (none)
Originally scheduled: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (Ottawa) who signed a three-year, $9.3MM contract.
July 31 – (none)
Originally scheduled: Matt Nieto (Colorado) who signed a one-year, $1MM contract.
August 1 – (none)
Originally scheduled: Connor Hellebuyck (Winnipeg) who signed a one-year $2.25MM contract. Reid Boucher (Vancouver) who signed a one-year $688K contract.
August 2 – Calvin de Haan (NY Islanders)
Originally scheduled: Kevin Gravel (Los Angeles) who signed a one-year, two-way, $650K contract.
August 3 – Nate Schmidt (Vegas), Nino Niederreiter (Minnesota)
August 4 – Mikael Granlund (Minnesota), Conor Sheary (Pittsburgh), Nathan Beaulieu (Buffalo)
Which Of The RFAs Slotted For Arbitration Will Earn The Most?
Arbitration can be a useful tool for players in a number of ways. It accelerates the contract negotiation process and puts it on a definitive timetable. It puts the player in a position where they can (theoretically) promote their own cause and posture for a greater paycheck. And in some cases, the threat of a mere one-to-two year ruling scares the team in question into handing out more term than they may otherwise have been comfortable.
With Tomas Tatar earning $5.3 MM AAV, Viktor Arvidsson earning $4.25 MM, and Colton Parayko raking in $5.5 MM all in the last few days, many players are earning longer deals with impressive cap hits before reaching their scheduled date. Only 14 names remain slotted for arbitration, but there are still a few names out there who are seeking a raise. Those players are Austin Watson, Brian Dumoulin, Mika Zibanejad, Ryan Spooner, Robin Lehner, Matt Nieto, Connor Hellebuyck, Reid Boucher, Calvin de Haan, Nate Schmidt, Nino Niederreiter, Mikael Granlund, Conor Sheary, and Nathan Beaulieu.
Keep in mind that most of the remaining names will likely come to an agreement prior to their dates, which could affect the prices. That said, who do you think ends up seeing the highest AAV on their next contract? Take our poll below!
(Mobile users, click here to vote.)
Remaining Arbitration Dates
While the league continues to try and lock up their young players, several arbitration dates remain on the docket for the next few weeks. Starting on Thursday, teams and players will head to hearings to determine their salary for the upcoming season (or seasons). For more information on how the arbitration process works, check out Mike Furlano’s two part breakdown of the system from last summer.
The remaining arbitration dates are as follows:
July 20 – Colton Parayko (St. Louis), Tomas Tatar (Detroit)
Originally scheduled: Tyler Johnson (Tampa Bay) who signed a seven-year, $35MM contract.
July 21 – Ryan Dzingel (Ottawa)
Originally scheduled: Michael Chaput (Vancouver) who signed a one-year, $688K contract
July 22 – Viktor Arvidsson (Nashville)
Originally scheduled: Micheal Ferland (Calgary) who signed a two-year, $3.5MM contract.
July 24 – Austin Watson (Nashville), Brian Dumoulin (Pittsburgh)
July 25 – Mika Zibanejad (NY Rangers)
Originally scheduled: Joey LaLeggia (Edmonton) who signed a one-year, two-way, $700K contract and Ondrej Palat (Tampa Bay) who signed a five-year, $26.5MM contract.
July 26 – Ryan Spooner (Boston)
Originally scheduled: Jordan Martinook (Arizona) who signed a two-year, $3.6MM contract.
July 27 – Robin Lehner (Buffal0)
Originally scheduled: Marek Mazanec (Nashville) who signed a one-year, two-way, $650K contract.
July 28 – (none)
Originally scheduled: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (Ottawa) who signed a three-year, $9.3MM contract.
July 31 – Matt Nieto (Colorado)
August 1 – Connor Hellebuyck (Winnipeg), Reid Boucher (Vancouver)
August 2 – Calvin de Haan (NY Islanders)
Originally scheduled: Kevin Gravel (Los Angeles) who signed a one-year, two-way, $650K contract.
August 3 – Nate Schmidt (Vegas), Nino Niederreiter (Minnesota)
August 4 – Mikael Granlund (Minnesota), Conor Sheary (Pittsburgh), Nathan Beaulieu (Buffalo)