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East Notes: Bylsma, Guentzel, Rowney

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The Athletic’s Craig Custance caught up with former Pittsburgh Penguins and Buffalo Sabres head coach Dan Bylsma who had some thoughts on how the Detroit Red Wings should approach their roster. Ironically enough, Bylsma grew up a Detroit fan, since he was a Michigan resident. Custance quizzed Bylsma on a number of topics, including a Red Wings rebuild and his time with the Sabres. On the Red Wings, Bylsma admits that Detroit is no longer model franchise in the league and that fans will “never see” the team they once saw that featured bonafide stars like Luc Robitaille, Brett Hull, Steve Yzerman, and Sergei Fedorov, to name a few. The former bench boss guesses that the Red Wings roster will look dynamically different in three years as they’ll be forced to rebuild a team that has certainly struggled. He also believes fans are ready for a rebuild, preferring to see a competitive team that grows into playoff dominance instead of keeping the “streak” alive with aging players and early playoff exits. He doesn’t believe, however, that the Red Wings need a total teardown to win. Instead, he thinks that steady drafting can keep Detroit relevant without ripping out the foundation.

  • When it came to talking about Buffalo, however, Bylsma was coy. When he arrived in Buffalo, the team was in the midst of a tear down and rebuilding with the likes of Jack Eichel, and other young, dynamic players. While there were some strides, last season was disastrous, costing both Bylsma and former general manager Tim Murray their jobs. Bylsma admits to Custance that he didn’t want to talk about what happened in Buffalo while explaining that Detroit hasn’t gutted things like Buffalo did. He also believes that a teardown-build up program takes several years, sometimes up to five. That’s understandable from his vantage point, given that he only had two years in Buffalo to try and win. It has to be said that Toronto’s resurgence couldn’t have helped matters, as the Leafs not only qualified for the playoffs, but gave Washington a scare in the first round.
  • NBC Sports’ Adam Gretz writes that with Connor Sheary re-signed, the Pittsburgh Penguins will turn their attention to grabbing a third line center. He makes a couple suggestions, wondering if Jake Guentzel could move over to center line or if youngster Carter Rowney is ready for full time duty. The most realistic option, Gretz believes, is for Pittsburgh general manager Jim Rutherford to explore trades to fill the vacancy and give the Pens a solid chance to win their third consecutive Cup.

Early Look At Some 2017-18 Impact Rookies: Part II

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Last week we took a look at some of the most interesting rookie names around the league, profiling Clayton Keller, Dylan Strome, Tyson Jost, Brock Boeser, Charlie McAvoy and Julius Honka. Each of those names have a chance at making a real impact for their respective clubs in 2017-18, and at least a few could be in the running for a Calder trophy as Rookie of the Year. Again, this series is avoiding the 2017 draftees as they’ll be profiled individually as we get closer to camp and have a better idea of who will be staying in the NHL right away.

For this part, we’ll take a look at some other young players who may not have the same draft pedigree of Strome, or early impact that Boeser, McAvoy and Honka have shown.

Josh Ho-Sang – New York Islanders

Josh Ho-SangOne of the most mentioned names in comments after releasing the first group of players was Ho-Sang (along with Mathew Barzal). While part one was certainly not meant to rank any of the upcoming young players, Ho-Sang’s exclusion was certainly noticeable. After making his NHL debut this season under some (silly) controversy, Ho-Sang is ready to take the next step and be a full-time contributor to the Islanders this year. Regardless of the number on his back, he showed during his 21 game stint that he can compete at the highest level and registered 10 points. No one would be shocked by a 40-point season from the young forward, and if given a full-time opportunity in New York’s top six he could push even higher than that.

Thomas Chabot – Ottawa Senators

One of the most impressive players in junior hockey last year, Chabot spent a single game with the Senators and is just about ready to take the NHL by storm. It’s hard for a defenseman to step right into a big role in the NHL, but with Erik Karlsson and Cody Ceci still around Chabot can easily be sheltered to start his career. It’s unclear where exactly he’d fit though as the team still has Chris Wideman, but if given the opportunity Chabot could provide a dynamic option on the right side. The Senators also brought in Johnny Oduya and have at least eight names that could take up six spots, so that opportunity may have to wait for an injury.

Anders Bjork – Boston Bruins

The Bruins team bus will be a rowdy place this year given how many rookies and young players could be on the roster, and Bjork isn’t one to overlook. The fifth-round pick dominated for Notre Dame as a junior before signing this spring, and looks ready to jump right into a top-six role with the NHL club. There seems to be a natural fit for him across from David Pastrnak to make a dynamic second unit for the Bruins, but how it all shakes out still isn’t clear. It’s not even set that he’ll start the year in the NHL, but after 52 points on a Fighting Irish club that relied almost solely on his production and Cal Petersen’s outstanding goaltending he sure seemed ready to take the next step.

Zach Aston-ReeseZach Aston-Reese – Pittsburgh Penguins

Another college name, this time of the free agent variety continues to impress in Aston-Reese. A finalist for the Hobey Baker trophy, Aston-Reese has done nothing but score since being passed over in the draft several times. The 22-year old put up 63 points in 38 games for Northeastern, before jumping right into the AHL and showing off with eight points in 10 games. He’s big enough to play in Pittsburgh’s bottom-six right away, and there is a glaring hole at center that the team still needs to address. Pittsburgh is notorious for turning college players into immediate producers, and it could be no different for the bang-and-crash two-way player in Aston-Reese. The forward depth of the Penguins could lead to big minutes with players like Phil Kessel or Patric Hornqvist, a situation no young player would pass up.

Alex DeBrincat – Chicago Blackhawks

78 goals, 165 points and the disappointment of being cut from the US World Junior team and losing the Memorial Cup should be more than enough motivation for DeBrincat coming into Blackhawks camp, who will try to crack the squad at 19 and show that his small stature doesn’t hold him back on the ice. In junior he was almost always the most skilled player in the game and has showed it by scoring more than 100 points in three straight years. There are doubts about his durability and even some about his top-end speed—though his first-step acceleration and quickness was among the best in the OHL—but it’s clear that he knows how to score. For a team desperate for cheap forward options that can play up with their top names, DeBrincat could come into a perfect scenario and compete for the rookie scoring title.

*Note: There are many other rookies that have impact potential that will be profiled throughout the summer as we approach the season. These are in no particular order or ranking.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Conor Sheary Out To Prove 2016-17 Was No Fluke

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  • The Conor Sheary contract announced earlier today could turn out to be quite the bargain for the Penguins. The miniature winger’s chemistry with captain Sidney Crosby is undeniable, and he exploded with offensive production alongside him. With 53 points in only 61 games, if Sheary can maintain that sort of productive pace, he will be one of the more cost-effective wingers over the course of his contract. Speaking with the Post-Gazette’s Jason Mackey, Sheary said he hoped to prove that this past season wasn’t merely a “one-time thing”. If he can put 3 more campaigns anywhere near as successful as 2016-17, he’s assured to be paid quite a bit more on his next contract. Durability is a concern, but he did appear to absorb harder impacts less regularly as the year progressed.

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Flyers’ Bloated Forward Contracts Becoming Issue

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The Philadelphia Flyers haven’t seen the second round of the post-season since 2012, and in those 5 seasons since, missed the show entirely 3 times. For a team that spends as much on offense as the Flyers, their production has been incredibly mediocre. Many point to the seemingly never-ending goaltending carousel as the root cause of the team’s woes, and they wouldn’t be entirely incorrect. That said, over the last four seasons, their goals for per 60 minutes (GF60) is good for only 25th league-wide. That puts them above only the Vancouver Canucks, Carolina Hurricanes, Arizona Coyotes, New Jersey Devils, and Buffalo Sabres in that timeframe. In short, their offense has been remarkably underwhelming for years. And yet, the team is allocating $47.32 MM of its available $75 MM to its forward group in 2017-18, with most of that money tied up in only a handful of skaters. For comparison’s sake, that’s more than $5 MM more than their divisional rivals in Pittsburgh or Washington.

Leading the pack in terms of bloated contracts are the team’s captain Claude Giroux and last season’s team-points-leader Jakub Voracek. Neither player is detrimental to the cause – they both have tallied multiple 50+ point seasons with relative consistency. That said, their contracts are some of the most exorbitant in the league. Giroux’s $8.275 MM AAV for the next 5 seasons puts him in an elite group of forwards. So does Voracek’s $8.25 MM for the next 7 seasons. This places them 12th and 13th respectively among the highest paid players league-wide for the 2017-18 season. Giroux’s career PPG is .87, while Voracek’s is a measly .71. Excluding defensemen P.K. Subban and goaltender Henrik Lundqvist, these stats simply don’t match up to the rest of the “elite” group. Jonathan Toews’ and Anze Kopitar both also account for around .87 PPG, but unarguably do far more on the defensive side of the puck than the simply capable Giroux. One of these bloated contracts alone would be a hindrance; two on the same roster is nearly insurmountable.

Further down the roster, you see other albatross contracts. Valtteri Filppula was acquired by the Flyers to shore up the center position and increase playmaking ability. He only scored 8 points through 20 games in Philadelphia. Thankfully for the Flyers, his $5 MM contract expires at the end of 2017-18. Jori Lehtera was acquired this off-season in a bizarre move for Brayden Schenn, who arguably saw a great deal of improvement last season. Lehtera has only two seasons remaining at $4.7 MM, but his only effective (44 points) season is two years in the past. He scored only 7 goals all last season. Then there’s Sean Couturier, who while not a total dud, has failed to progress the way the organization hoped when they drafted him with the 8th overall in 2011 acquired as part of the Jeff Carter transaction. He provides solid defensive play, but he has never broken 40 points, and seemingly regressed last season, falling out of Selke conversations. He has 5 seasons remaining at a moderate $4.33 MM AAV. Wayne Simmonds (the one true bargain on the team) and Matt Read both make over $3 MM, while Dale Weise and Michael Raffl both draw over $2 MM. For a team that truly struggles to put the puck in the net, a lot of money is being spent on marginal players.

Ultimately, the Flyers are in a difficult spot playing in the Metropolitan Division. With the high-flying, offensively-dynamic Washington Capitals and Pittsburgh Penguins competing for playoff positioning, the inclination to try and duplicate those franchises is only natural. The team did luck into a dynamic, potentially franchise, talent in Nolan Patrick, which may help alleviate some of the problems with consistent offensive production. That said, if the Flyers continue to struggle this season, look for some of the offensive big guns to find themselves on the trading block. Excluding the one year of Filppula and the incredibly valuable Simmonds, only Giroux has any sort of no-movement clause. With Ivan Provorov and Shayne Gostisbehere looking to be core pieces on the back-end for many years, the day may soon come where an offensive overhaul visits Philadelphia. GM Ron Hextall will have money moving out in the next few seasons, but he undoubtedly has decisions to make going forward, particularly if this season again falls short of a playoff appearance.

Penguins Sign Conor Sheary To 3-Year Deal

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The Pittsburgh Penguins signed restricted free agent Conor Sheary to a three-year, $9MM contract, tweets Elliotte Friedman. The deal will be at a $3MM AAV deal. Sheary played a major role for the Stanley Cup champions last year as he broke out in his second year with the team. After scoring just seven goals in 51 games during his rookie campaign, Sheary took that next step this year, scoring 23 goals and adding 30 assists for a 53 point season. He added two goals and seven points in the playoffs as well. Sheary’s 43-point increase from the previous year is fourth behind Edmonton’s Connor McDavid (52), Nashville’s Viktor Arvidsson (45) and Boston’s David Pastrnak (44), tweets the Tennessean’s Adam Vingan.

The signing is at a team-friendly price and the 25-year-old forward is now the last restricted free agent the team had to sign. However, after the Sheary signing, the Penguins will have only $3.28MM in cap space to add more center depth to the team. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Jason Mackey suggests that may used to sign veteran Matt Cullen for next year.

 

Penguins Not Interested In Bringing Back Jaromir Jagr

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  • While some have wondered if free agent winger Jaromir Jagr could potentially go back to Pittsburgh to end his career, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette noted that GM Jim Rutherford has no interest in bringing Jagr in. The 45-year-old played spent 11 seasons with the Penguins from 1990-91 through 2000-01, collecting 1,079 points in just 806 games.  While he’s undoubtedly past his prime, Jagr did put up 46 points in 82 games with Florida last season, showing he can still produce at the NHL level.

Upcoming RFA Arbitrations

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Next week is the last week for scheduled RFA arbitrations. So far no team or player has managed to actually make it to arbitration. Rather, parties have settled in every arbitration case prior to the arbitration hearing date. The same fate may await the following six players who make up the final set of arbitration dates.

August 2nd: Calvin de Haan – New York Islanders
The New York Islanders defenseman had a $1.97MM cap hit last season, and put up 5G and 20A in 82 games.

August 3rd: Nate Schmidt – Vegas Golden Knights
The former Washington Capitals defenseman—selected by the Vegas Golden Knights in the NHL expansion draft—put up 3G and 14A in 60 games last season. His previous cap hit was $812K.

August 3rd: Nino Niederreiter – Minnesota Wild
The 24 year-old Wild forward had a previous cap hit of $2.66MM and scored 25G and 32A in 82 games last season. Expect a significant raise.

August 4th: Mikael Granlund – Minnesota Wild
The 25 year-old Wild forward put up even better numbers than Neiderreiter with 26G and 43A in 81 games. Expect a significant raise over his previous $3MM cap hit.

August 4th: Conor Sheary – Pittsburgh Penguins
Fresh off a career season and a Stanley Cup victory, Sheary looks for a significant raise over his $667K contract. Sheary put up 23G and 30A in 61 games last season.

August 4th: Nathan Beaulieu – Buffalo Sabres
The 24 year-old defenseman scored 4G and 24A in 74 games last season. His previous cap hit was an even $1MM.

Will Butcher, Penguins A Potential Match

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Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette caught up with Butcher’s agent Brian Bartlett, who told him that if the Penguins called “I’m sure we’d answer the phone.” Bartlett was clear in what he was looking for in Butcher’s first team, noting the Penguins solid track record developing college players and the fact that they’ve had (a bit of) recent success in the NHL. Butcher isn’t looking for a chance to compete in the NHL right away, but a spot to grow his young career.

Arbitration Dates Still To Come

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While the league continues to try and lock up their young players, several arbitration dates remain on the docket for the next few weeks. Arbitration hearings have started, but only two have actually taken place and none have resulted in an actual decision. Both Tomas Tatar and Viktor Arvidsson reached agreements after their hearing, signing for four and seven years respectively.

There are very few remaining dates scheduled, though still some big names on the docket. For more information on how the arbitration process works, check out Mike Furlano’s two part breakdown of the system from last summer.

The remaining arbitration dates are as follows:

July 27 – (none)

Originally scheduled: Marek Mazanec (Nashville) who signed a one-year, two-way, $650K contract. Robin Lehner (Buffal0) who signed a one-year $4MM contract.

July 28 – (none)

Originally scheduled: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (Ottawa) who signed a three-year, $9.3MM contract.

July 31 – (none)

Originally scheduled: Matt Nieto (Colorado) who signed a one-year, $1MM contract.

August 1 – (none)

Originally scheduled: Connor Hellebuyck (Winnipeg) who signed a one-year $2.25MM contract. Reid Boucher (Vancouver) who signed a one-year $688K contract.

August 2 – Calvin de Haan (NY Islanders)

Originally scheduled: Kevin Gravel (Los Angeles) who signed a one-year, two-way, $650K contract. 

August 3 – Nate Schmidt (Vegas), Nino Niederreiter (Minnesota)

August 4 – Mikael Granlund (Minnesota), Conor Sheary (Pittsburgh), Nathan Beaulieu (Buffalo)

What Is The Best Way To Build A Champion?

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At the Chicago Blackhawks convention, winger Patrick Kane was noted for saying that the Pittsburgh Penguins were the measuring stick for championship teams in the NHL. The sentiment is a fair one, after the Pens were the first team in the Cap Era to repeat and the first to go back-to-back since the ’96-97 and ’97-98 Detroit Red Wings.

Back in April, Sportsnet did a fascinating piece on how every Stanley Cup playoff participant was built and a quick glance at each team realizes that a healthy mix of good drafting, smart trades, and keen signings from the free agent pool lead to stability. Is there a metric of perfection? Hardly. The Blackhawks are saddled with huge contracts to players with a lot of miles on them. They developed well, they drafted well under Dale Tallon (Bowman has been a mixed bag), and Bowman made some shrewd trades to keep the band together. The official metric (at that time) was a mix of their roster being 40% drafted; 20% acquired through trade and another 40% picked up as free agents. Two months later, the Hawks violently shook up their roster after a stunning four-game sweep to the Nashville Predators.

So how about the Pittsburgh Penguins? The back-to-back champs clocked in at 44% drafted, 41% traded, and just 15% signed. Remember, it wasn’t too long ago that many analysts and pundits were wondering if Sidney Crosby should be dealt to rebuild, whereas ESPN’s Matthew Coller eerily wrote this:

Barring a miracle turnaround under coach Mike Sullivan, it appears the Pittsburgh Penguins’ run as an elite team is over, whether they make the playoffs this season or not. Recently fired coach Mike Johnston might be at fault for some of their struggles, but the Penguins’ big picture is clear: They have fading superstars, a broken-down prospect system and bandages covering up giant gashes in the team’s depth.

Evgeni MalkinObviously, the miracle turnaround happened and the Pens have two more Stanley Cups to show for it. This isn’t to slag Coller at all—in fact, if you can remember back to December 2015 the Penguins were playing listless hockey and appeared to truly need a reshaping. But sometimes different voices—and players—can make all the difference.

So what does it take for a franchise to win a Cup? Here are a few thoughts:

Sometimes, It Takes A Fresh Pair Of Eyes

The Penguins did just that. Ray Shero was the general manager from 2006-2014, and was fired following a bitter first round exit. Head coach Dan Bylsma followed soon after, once Jim Rutherford was hired. Rutherford’s arrival was hardly celebrated at the time, and the Penguins were bounced in five games just a year later. Rutherford then turned around and acquired Phil Kessel, booted Johnston for Sullivan in December of 2015, and snagged Trevor Daley from Chicago in a steal (Rob Scuderi, who was flipped later to Los Angeles).

Rutherford didn’t build the roster. He didn’t have a history with the franchise. Instead, he came in with a different perspective than those who were around to construct it. The one metric that advanced or conventional statistics don’t capture are the human elements that lead to winning. They’re not measurable. Statistics are important as is robust scouting. But a fresh perspective, where biases are not entrenched, go a long way. Sometimes, a front office reboot is just what the doctor ordered. Staying the course for too long can bring down a franchise. The Detroit Red Wings certainly seem to be an example of that, currently in cap hell, with contracts bloated in money, years, and no-trade clauses. Many think that Ken Holland, who’s had a dismal eight years since the Wings’ last Finals appearance, has simply been there too long to make any sizable changes. Loyalty, after all, is a powerful agent.

This isn’t to say that full-scale change is always the way to go. Patience is a virtue. But sometimes, a different look at things can go a long way.

Draft Well

This is the no-brainer. You can’t whiff on your top picks. The Penguins built a foundation when the ping pong ball bounced their way three times, allowing them to draft Marc-Andre Fleury, Evgeni Malkin, and Crosby in three straight drafts. From there, it’s finding the right complimentary pieces and then developing that talent through the minors. Of those 16 playoff participants examined in the Sportsnet piece, only one team didn’t have a roster that was composed of over 33% drafted players (Boston Bruins – 25%). That’s a third of the roster contributing to a playoff appearance—an obvious necessity to prolonged success.

Trading Is Risk/Reward Based On Who’s Pulling The Trigger

Trades certainly put the Penguins over the top but they don’t always work out. Just ask George McPhee and David Poile about that Filip Forsberg deal. But it goes without saying that teams can’t be afraid to make a deal here and there. Poile is proof positive of that. He swung the trade that netted P.K. Subban, and has swindled other teams to acquire both core and supplemental talent. Trading can’t be relied upon solely to build a winner, but adding the right pieces at opportune times can be the difference between a deep playoff run and just missing the playoffs.

Free agency, especially in the salary cap era, has become akin to navigating a field full of land mines. Long terms and big dollars are spent on players and only seasons later, buyouts used to purge the mistake. There are certainly cases of it working well, but it seems like it’s best to tread lightly during the free agent signing period.

There will never be a perfect science to building a team. Sometimes it’s just a little luck that propels a team on the bubble to a Stanley Cup Final appearance or even just qualifying for the playoffs. Regardless, it’s interesting to note that as the Penguins head into a season trying to capture a third consecutive Cup, smart drafting, trading and a fresh perspective can go a long way in winning.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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