Expansion Primer: Philadelphia Flyers
Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.
The Philadelphia Flyers are coming off a disappointing season of Metropolitan struggles. Thankfully, with the #2 pick in the upcoming draft, they will receive an infusion a top level talent in Nico Hischier or Nolan Patrick. There aren’t a ton of success stories from this last season for the Flyers, in which Wayne Simmonds led the way up front. Many players took a noticeable step back and the younger forwards failed to produce at an impactful clip.
The Flyers are in desperate need of embracing a full youth movement. The longer they cling to players like Andrew MacDonald, the worse off their rebuild will be. This is not a team that can compete for a Stanley Cup in the near future and with the expansion draft forcing tough decisions, now is the time to embrace that organizational mentality.
Eligible Players (Non-UFA)
Forwards
Claude Giroux (NMC), Valtteri Filppula (NMC), Jakub Voracek, Brayden Schenn, Sean Couturier, Matt Read, Dale Weise, Michael Raffl, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Nick Cousins, Scott Laughton, Greg Carey, Colin McDonald, Taylor Leier
Defense
Andrew MacDonald, Radko Gudas, Brandon Manning, Shayne Gostisbehere, T.J. Brennan, Will O’Neill, Jesper Pettersson
Goaltender
Michal Neuvirth, Anthony Stolarz
Notable Exemptions
Ivan Provorov, Travis Konecny, Samuel Morin, Carter Hart
Key Decisions
The Flyers have to protect two players – both of whom are probably not deserving of the no movement clause they have been granted. Giroux had his second straight offensively disappointing season. At $8.275 MM a season until 2022, the Flyers have created a really difficult situation for themselves. And although previous GM Paul Holmgren was somehow able to unload Mike Richards prior to his momentous fall from grace, Giroux is already known to be an albatross. He’s still producing, with 14 goals and 58 points in his last outing, but he is struggling to be a difference maker against tough competition. Filppula only played 20 games this past season for Philadelphia, so any criticism might be premature. But the well-rounded center has only broken 20 goals twice in his career, most recently 4 seasons ago. He seems rather redundant on a team with lots of mediocre offensive talents.
Voracek might also be slightly overpaid for what he brings to the team ($8.25 MM), as his possession metrics have trended consistently downward over the course of four seasons. That said, he was Philadelphia’s leading scorer in 2016-17 and has a secure roster spot. He’s only two years removed from an All-Star appearance, but is he dominant enough to carry an offense if another key member struggles again? Simmonds is an obvious keeper for the physical edge he brings along with his consistent production. The net-front presence and leadership skills make him a prime candidate for captain if Giroux were somehow jettisoned in the near future. Both Schenn and Couturier are promising key pieces to the future of the squad, and had solid outings last season.
From here, the decision at forward gets difficult. Weal had solid underlying metrics and showed flexibility in his game. Does GM Ron Hextall believe there is there more to his game, and if so, is he worth signing as a UFA before the expansion draft, burning a protection slot? Probably not. Some believe Cousins is worth protecting, as he is still young at 23 years old, and shown potential at the AHL level. With the other players vying for the position, however, the organization would have to be incredibly high on his ability to piece it all together next season.
The three serious remaining choices – Laughton, Raffl, and Bellemare – a group which likely contains the player to be claimed by Vegas, poses a question which will be entirely decided by organizational philosophy. Laughton is the player who has the highest upside but also the greatest potential for bust. Mike Raffl is a consistent producer whose ability would guarantee a certain amount of offense on a forward corps that can really struggles over long stretches. Bellemare is your classic heart-and-soul player – his latest perfomance in the World Championships put that on display for all onlookers. In the end, based on the praise afforded him by the coaching staff and other players, as well as his assistant captainship, Bellemare could easily find himself as the final protected player. Whether that is the correct long-term decision will be a topic of great scrutiny.
On defense, there are very few players signed. Gudas and Gostisbehere will absolutely be protected, so the third choice is the only one up for debate. Many believe that MacDonald is considered the veteran savvy anchor, but his possession stats have been poor, while his turnover frequency has been disturbing. He plays over 20 minutes a night, but hasn’t performed as consistently as a top-pairing player should. Manning still has room to improve, is four years younger, and posts a positive Corsi influence (51.3%) on a corps that truly floundered all season. Neither is going to be a game breaker for Vegas, but it would seem odd that Philadelphia wouldn’t roll the dice and expose MacDonald in hopes that his $5 MM contract for three more seasons could be removed from the books.
The goaltending decision will be an interesting one for outside watchers. With Steve Mason gone, Neuvirth is obviously their tender going forward, correct? Well, perhaps not. Neuvirth’s stats (.901 SV%) really don’t justify his protection, and especially considering the forward situation, he would almost certainly not be claimed. Stolarz is the goaltender of the immediate future for the team and will see quite a bit of duty this year. The 6’6″ former London Knight is going to be relied upon to take a step forward, and his progression in Lehigh Valley has been quite promising. Exposing him could backfire in a way that leaving Neuvirth open for taking could not. If the team is serious about a youth movement, his value as an asset needs to be shielded.
After quite a few tough determinations, and trying to be realistic about the organization’s valuation of certain players, what follows is the final projection for Philadelphia.
Projected Protection List
Scheme: 7F / 3D / 1G
Forwards
Claude Giroux (NMC)
Valtteri Filppula (NMC)
Sean Couturier
Wayne Simmonds
Brayden Schenn
Jakub Voracek
Pierre-Edouard Bellemare
Defensemen
Shayne Gostisbehere
Radko Gudas
Brandon Manning
Goaltender
Anthony Stolarz
Offseason Keys: Philadelphia Flyers
While the expansion draft is set to headline a busy NHL offseason, there are still several other storylines for each team in the months ahead. Here is a closer look at what lies ahead for the Philadelphia Flyers.
After making the playoffs in 2015-16, expectations were high in Philadelphia this season. However, they wound up taking a step backwards as inconsistency plagued them throughout the year and they came up a little short of making the postseason. They did receive a nice consolation prize in the form of the second overall pick through the draft lottery, starting the offseason on a high note. Here’s what’s in store for Ron Hextall and the Flyers this summer.
New Deal For Gostisbehere
Shayne Gostisbehere burst onto the scene in 2015-16 after a recall a month into the year as he quickly became one of the top offensive threats from the back end in the entire NHL. Expectations were high heading into his first full NHL season but he struggled to repeat his freshman performance while even being scratched periodically.
Gostisbehere’s entry level contract expires in July and he is Philadelphia’s most prominent restricted free agent. Although he had a down season, he still put up 39 points which ranked him in the top-25 league-wide. He’s viewed as a key cog for the Flyers and accordingly, he has a case for a big contract.
Had the 24 year old taken a step forward or two this season, it would have been easy to anticipate Hextall being more than comfortable signing him long-term. However, given Gostisbehere’s drop in production and role, the GM may be inclined to look for a short-term bridge deal. From a cap standpoint, the Flyers have plenty of space to work with this offseason (something that hasn’t been said for quite a while) so they certainly have the flexibility to go either way with their young defenseman.
Find A Starting Goalie
This one is a familiar key for Philly fans. Despite bringing in some prominent netminders over the years, they’ve struggled to find a consistent number one goalie. The tandem of Steve Mason and Michal Neuvirth didn’t get the job done this season and while Neuvirth signed a two year, $5MM extension at the deadline, he’s not really being viewed as the long-term solution. Mason is set to become an unrestricted free agent and indicated after the season he wasn’t likely to re-sign if the platoon situation was in place again next season.
Anthony Stolarz is coming off a bit of a down season himself at the AHL level but is still viewed as a prospect with some NHL upside. As things stand, he’s in line to make a push for a spot with the Flyers (assuming he makes it through expansion) but the pending RFA also has another year of waiver exemption remaining which increases the likelihood that he will start with AHL Lehigh Valley next year.
There are going to be quite a few goalies available between free agency and the trade market, several of which could come in and take over the starting role. While there aren’t any long-term solutions available, there are some players who could hold down the fort for a year or two which, given the quality prospects Philadelphia has in the system between the pipes, might just be exactly what they need.
Reshape The Back End
One way or the other, the defense is going to likely look a lot different next season. Mark Streit was dealt away at the deadline while other pending UFAs in Michael Del Zotto and Nick Schultz aren’t expected to return.
The Flyers have several young prospects that are nearly ready to make the jump to the NHL, including Samuel Morin, Robert Hagg, and Travis Sanheim. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Hextall opt to leave a spot or two open heading into training camp for their youngsters to try to step up and seize a spot.
That said, given the payroll room they have to work with, it also wouldn’t be surprising to see them be active in free agency to try to add a quality veteran. An alternative option may be to utilize the pre-expansion trade market as they really only have two blueliners that are must-protect players in Gostisbehere and Radko Gudas. Hextall could opt to make a trade before Vegas makes their selection and add to their blueline that way. Philadelphia has plenty of options to change up their defense corps for next season and it certainly will be interesting to see which route they wind up taking.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
KHL Targeting Restricted Free Agents
CSKA Moscow warned that they’d be after some of their Russian stars, attempting to woo them back with dreams of the 2018 Olympics and a chance to compete for their country. It seems they’ve found two targets, as Igor Eronko of Sport-Express reports the KHL club is in contact with Washington Capitals defender Dmitry Orlov, and Philadelphia Flyers forward Roman Lyubimov. Both players are restricted free agents and could leave for their home country should they want to.
News from Russian clubs should be taken with a grain of salt, but this smoke may have a fire attached to it especially in the case of Lyubimov. In April, he side-stepped a question about going home to Russia for a chance to compete in the Olympics, saying it would be a “tough decision”. The Flyers forward did only come over to the NHL this season, and saw less than 10 minutes of ice-time a night in his 47 games. While he wouldn’t be a devastating loss for the Flyers, Orlov’s departure would send shocks through the Capitals system.
Unlike Lyubimov, Orlov has been in North America for several seasons, coming up through the AHL system and only making his presence really felt the past two seasons. The 25-year old puck-mover has turned into an excellent player, able to play almost 20 minutes a night and record 30 points a season. Losing him in the same season as Karl Alzner and the newly acquired Kevin Shattenkirk would hurt the Capitals’ defensive group quite a bit. Orlov also never played for Moscow, and in fact his hometown and former KHL team Novokuznetsk has just been exiled from the league in an attempt to get it more financially stable.
Orlov is in line for a hefty raise should he stay in North America this summer, one that it will actually be quite difficult for the Capitals to afford. With Evgeny Kuznetsov, Andre Burakovsky, Brett Connolly, Nate Schmidt and Philipp Grubauer all hitting restricted free agency as well, the team will have to carefully carve up the cap-space pie to fit them all in. That’s assuming they don’t try to re-sign Alzner, Shattenkirk, T.J. Oshie, or Justin Williams, all of whom are unrestricted free agents this summer.
Metro Division Notes: Capitals, Smith, Flyers, Shero
With perhaps the most complete team top-to-bottom in franchise history, the Washington Capitals believed they had all the pieces to finally propel themselves past the arch-rival Pittsburgh Penguins and into the Eastern Conference Final for the first time in Alex Ovechkin‘s 12-year NHL career. However, after yet another disappointing defeat at the hands of the Penguins, Washington must now once again go back to the drawing board in search of the right formula. Unlike in years past when the roster’s shortcomings were easy to identify, Capitals GM Brian McLellan will have a much tougher time this summer identifying an obvious solution to the team’s deficiencies, as Isabelle Khurshudyan of The Washington Post writes.
As Khurshudyan notes, since assuming the top job with the Caps, MacLellan has strategically set about filling holes on the roster as he attempted to construct a championship team. First he went to work to address the team’s defense corps, inking veteran blue liners Matt Niskanen and Brooks Orpik as free agents in the summer of 2014. The next year, the GM brought in Justin Williams and T.J. Oshie via free agency and trade respectively, to “bolster the top-six.” Last summer, MacLellan dealt two draft picks to Montreal for Lars Eller and signed Brett Connolly to add more speed and skill to the team’s third line. The cherry on top was acquiring prized, puck-moving defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk at the trade deadline, adding an impact player to an already stacked lineup while at the same time keeping him from going to a conference rival (it was believed Pittsburgh and the N.Y. Rangers were also in the Shattenkirk sweepstakes). While it all added up to perhaps the best team in the league on paper, in the end Washington couldn’t exorcise their postseason demons and once again are left wondering what could have been.
Clearly MacLellan will again try to construct a Stanley Cup-caliber club but with Oshie, Shattenkirk, Karl Alzner and Williams all scheduled to be UFA’s, and with less than $22MM available in projected cap space, it’s likely the team will lose at least two key contributors from that group. Complicating matters is the fact that Evgeny Kuznetsov, Andre Burakovsky and Dmitry Orlov will be RFA’s and in line for significant raises over their 2017 salaries. Barring some savvy salary cap maneuverings this summer, it’s quite possible the Capitals best chance to win a Stanley Cup with Ovechkin on the roster just passed them by.
More from the Metro:
- Though many suspected the New York Rangers would land the aforementioned Shattenkirk at the trade deadline, the team instead balked at paying the higher price and made a less expensive move for fellow blue liner Brendan Smith. Like many deadline acquisitions, Smith struggled at times while settling into a new organization and adapting to a different system but the veteran blue liner found his stride in the postseason, providing much needed bite and steady play on the back end for the Blueshirts. It’s common knowledge the Rangers will attempt to upgrade the puck-moving ability and mobility on the team’s blue line but Smith showed he may be part of that solution and the Rangers might be wise to consider re-signing the pending UFA. For his part, Smith would welcome a return to Manhattan, according to Brett Cyrgalis of the New York Post, saying: “I really enjoyed being here. I like the guys, the group.” After making $2.75MM in 2016-17, Smith will undoubtedly be able to generate offers in the range of $4MM annually on the open market. But at just 28 years old, re-signing Smith to a three or four-year pact at that price point might prove to be more prudent than luring the top prospective UFA blue liner, Shattenkirk, to the Blueshirts.
- While the 2016-17 campaign will go down as a disappointing one for the Philadelphia Flyers, Dave Scott, president and CEO of the club’s parent company, Comcast Spectacor, would rather focus on the successful development of the organization’s younger players, as Sam Carchidi of Philly.com writes. GM Ron Hextall has avoided quick fixes in the free agent and trade markets and instead patiently rebuilt the team, focusing on the draft-and-develop model. Even though the team failed to qualify for a postseason berth, the successful debut of prized defense prospect Ivan Provorov served notice that Hextall’s plan is beginning to bear fruit. Carchidi noted that Scott is also excited about the potential of prospects Oskar Lindblom and Mike Vecchione. It also doesn’t hurt the Flyers rebuild that Philadelphia jumped several spots in the draft lottery, snagging the #2 overall selection and the opportunity to select one of Nolan Patrick, the consensus top talent in this draft for much of the last year, or Nico Hischier to further bolster an impressive pool of young talent. If Hextall can find a competent starting goaltender, either in free agency or via trade, it wouldn’t be out of the question to see Philadelphia make a huge leap in the standings in 2017-18 and qualify for the postseason.
- The New Jersey Devils may not have enjoyed much on-ice success in 2016-17 but those struggles were mitigated at least somewhat by overcoming the odds to win the NHL draft lottery. Now the Devils will have the chance to add an impact offensive talent to a roster that badly needs more skill. But lost in the shuffle of New Jersey’s good fortune is the fact the team also has two second-round choices, their own and Boston’s courtesy of the 2016 trade deadline trade of Lee Stempniak to the Bruins. While not nearly as valuable as the first overall selection, boasting two second-round picks will give the club a chance to add two more good young players to the system. However, as Chris Ryan of NJ.com notes, Devils GM Ray Shero does not have a particularly good track record of success in the second round. Going back to his days as GM in Pittsburgh, Shero and his teams have made a total of eight choices in the second round. Of that group, Scott Harrington (#54 overall in 2011) leads the way in NHL games played (47), goals (1) and points (4). Of course it is fair to point out that Shero’s recent selections are still young enough to carve out successful big league careers. In fact, goaltender Tristan Jarry (#44 overall in 2013) would be in line to assume the understudy role in Pittsburgh, assuming the team moves Marc-Andre Fleury after the season. Still, if New Jersey’s rise back to relevance is to happen sooner rather than later, Shero would do well to find quality players with the team’s two second-rounders in June.
Philadelphia Flyers Hope To Hire Dean Lombardi
While there was much speculation that Dean Lombardi would be on a shortlist for the management job in Buffalo, it still seems like they haven’t reached out to him. On the other hand, the Philadelphia Flyers have interest in bringing him back into the fold according to Dave Isaac of the Courier-Post, though the role is unclear as Ron Hextall is firmly in control of the organization.
Lombardi was relieved of his General Manager duties for the Los Angeles Kings earlier this spring when Rob Blake was promoted, leaving one of the more experienced executives in hockey without a job. While the Kings would need to grant permission for any other team to talk to him, it’s unlikely that they would block a team who wanted to bring him in. In Philadelphia, he has ties going back to 2003 when he worked as a scout for the team. When he was hired as the GM of the Kings in 2006, he took Hextall—then also a scout in the Flyers’ organization—with him as his assistant GM. The two won a Stanley Cup together in 2012, before Hextall returned to Philadelphia.
Lombardi has been criticized in the past for being too loyal, giving contracts to players that are past their prime, but it seems that same loyalty may pay off with a new role with an old friend. Whether or not he still remains in the conversation for GM openings around the league is uncertain, though many in the coming years will look at his two Stanley Cup victories with envy and think he can still lead a team to glory.
Overseas Rumors: Miele, Zaar, Carey
The free agent frenzy is already underway for most of the major European hockey leagues and news of many teams’ interest in and pursuit of North American players has begun to make its way across the Atlantic. One move that seems to be more than just speculation is the reported signing of Philadelphia Flyers minor-leaguer Andy Miele by Swedish Hockey League team Malmö. Apparently, a deal is already in place between the two sides, Miele told Tony Androckitis of the AHL Blog “Highland Park Hockey”. Miele explained that the contract is voidable if he can negotiate a new deal with the Flyers, or AHL affiliate Lehigh Valley Phantoms, by June 25th and that “will be a conversation…that (they) will have”. However, as Androckitis points out, an extension seems unlikely when Miele did not get to play in one NHL game this season despite leading the Phantoms in scoring. The Flyers’ organizational depth will likely prevent Miele from making a significant difference at the highest level, which would probably drive down the value of an extension as well. The 2011 Hobey Baker winner, who also failed to make an impact with the Detroit Red Wings and Phoenix Coyotes in previous stops, is better off taking his talents overseas where he will likely be the Redhawks’ best player and be well-paid for his services. Miele, at 29 years old, has had a prolific minor league career with 368 points in 420 games and four AHL All-Star Game selections. It seems time that he take on a new challenge in his career.
- Potentially, Miele could be joined in Malmö by a fellow AHLer. Swedish winger Daniel Zaar, a 2012 sixth-round pick of the Columbus Blue Jackets, is considering heading back home next season. The 23-year-old was a key part of the Cleveland (then-Lake Erie) Monsters run to a Calder Cup championship in 2015-16 and, though his goal total fell off significantly, had another successful AHL campaign this year. Altogether, Zaar has 73 points in 126 AHL games since coming to North America. Yet, like Miele, Zaar has not been given an opportunity to try his hand at the NHL level. Zaar had 9 goals and 18 assists in 55 games with Lulea of the Swedish League prior to joining the Monsters and, given some apparent development, should be capable of greatly increasing those numbers. Both Zaar and Swedish suitors understand that, as Blue Jackets beat reporter Mark Scheig reports that bids for the young scorer have already begun, with Malmö in the lead. Zaar seems highly likely to head back overseas this off-season unless Columbus makes a convincing argument that he’ll see ample NHL ice time in 2017-18.
- Although many have assumed that the Washington Capitals’ season is over, down 3-1 to the Pittsburgh Penguins in the Eastern Conference semifinals, technically it isn’t. That hasn’t stopped Swiss club Lugano from publicly stating that they are interested In Caps forward Paul Carey, who skated earlier in the series even. However, Carey is not exactly an NHL regular. The 28-year-old, a four-year starter at Boston College, has largely failed to build on his collegiate success at the highest level. In 32 regular season games and four postseason games with the Colorado Avalanche and Capitals, Carey has just one goal and one assist. In the AHL, he has been much more successful, including recently wrapping up a career-best point-per-game 55-point season. However, with little chance of becoming a full-time NHLer, Carey could certainly be interested in making the jump overseas and the NLA is one of the top destinations. A Carey-Lugano connection, as rumored, would be a logical fit for both.
Should Flyers Consider Moving No. 2 Pick?
One week ago, Philadelphia Flyers’ general manager Ron Hextall said he would listen to trade offers for his recently won No. 2 overall pick in this year’s NHL Draft, which created some discussion on whether a team should consider doing that. The Flyers are hardly at the bottom of the pack as they leapfrogged most of the struggling teams to go from the 13th overall pick to the second pick. The belief is they could trade the pick, which would likely net them a young Nolan Patrick or a Nico Hischier, and bring in a huge package that could net them success immediately. (Even possible rumors of Colorado packing Matt Duchene and Gabriel Landeskog have been suggested as a possibility.)
CSN Philly’s writers Tom Dougherty, Jordan Hall and Greg Paone discussed the pros and cons of whether Hextall should even be receptive to moving the pick. Dougherty writes that the team can’t even consider the move. It was the biggest jump in NHL lottery history and shouldn’t be taken for granted. He believes the teams should hold onto either Patrick or Hischier and continue building from there.
Hall is quick to point out that Hextall’s strategy has been to build a franchise from within, so why would the Flyers GM change suddenly. Even if this isn’t the strongest draft, the No. 2 pick should get them one top-notch playmaker and that will only make Hextall’s plan more successful. Paone believes that the team should look at it differently, although he is quick to point out that he doesn’t see the Flyers making a trade, but he points out that the draft, in any sport, has too many busts for a team to not consider making a trade. Trading that pick for a young, already established NHL player would make more sense in many ways.
The Flyers have a nice team already with core players Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux, Branden Schenn and Wayne Simmons all about to hit their prime and plenty of youth not far behind. So which is better, adding another piece of youth or packaging that piece for a king’s ransom?
NHL Draft Lottery Results
The lottery balls were picked, the cards were flipped, and the New Jersey Devils will be selecting first in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft. New Jersey was the winner of this year’s NHL Draft Lottery, jumping up four spots to take over the top pick. Against all odds, just an 8.5% chance at #1, they will now have their pick of all the top available prospects come Friday, June 23rd. The Philadelphia Flyers will pick second and the Dallas Stars will pick third, as the balls fell their way as well. Philadelphia leaped forward eleven slots and Dallas up five slots.
With three teams “winning” the lottery, it’s a tough pill to swallow for the Colorado Avalanche. One of the worst teams in recent memory, the 2016-17 Colorado Avalanche finished the season with just 48 points, 21 less than the Vancouver Canucks at 29th. Yet, the Avs may miss out entirely on selecting a franchise player in a draft without a consensus star atop the charts. It’s also an unfortunate start for the expansion Vegas Golden Knights. Given the same odds at the third-worst team in the league, Vegas will instead select sixth and will be hard-pressed to find a player ready to jump immediately to the NHL, even though they’ll likely be hungry for help.
For Metropolitan Division foes New Jersey and Philadelphia, the question now becomes: who goes #1? Unlike the past two years – Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews – there is no consensus top prospect in 2017. Heading into 2016-17, Canadian forward Nolan Patrick, of the WHL’s Brandon Wheat Kings, was considered the favorite to go first overall. However, after a season filled with injuries, that status is far from a sure thing. The last player to be taken #1 following a final junior season spent mostly on the sidelines was Gord Kluzak by the Boston Bruins in 1982, and Kluzak played only four full NHL seasons before his injuries caught up with him. Patrick did score 46 points in 33 games this season, and racked up 102 points in just 72 games last season, but as they say, “the most important ability is availability”. Flying up draft boards over the last year has been Swiss center Nico Hischier of the QMJHL’s Halifax Mooseheads, and with questions lingering about Patrick, Hischier may wind up as 2017’s top pick. While Hischier doesn’t quite have the size and strength of Patrick, he has all the offensive ability. The swift scorer recorded 86 points in 57 games this season for Halifax and put on a show for Switzerland at the World Juniors.
It’s a difficult choice for the Devils, but one that GM Ray Shero and the New Jersey front office are happy to make. And GM Ron Hextall and the Flyers should be content with the runner-up.
NHL Draft Lottery Notes: Odds, History, Viewing
For the fourteen teams that missed the playoffs and the expansion Vegas Golden Knights, they have one thing in common: they’re hoping Bill Daly is holding a card with their logo on it, announcing that they have the first overall pick.
At 7pm central, NBC, CBC, and Sportsnet will show the NHL Draft Lottery as the Colorado Avalanche lead all teams in terms of percentage for receiving the #1 pick. Below are the odds:
Colorado Avalanche — 18.0%
Vancouver Canucks — 12.1%
Vegas Golden Knights — 10.3%
Arizona Coyotes — 10.3%
New Jersey Devils — 8.5%
Buffalo Sabres — 7.6%
Detroit Red Wings — 6.7%
Dallas Stars — 5.8%
Florida Panthers — 5.4%
Los Angeles Kings — 4.5%
Carolina Hurricanes — 3.2%
Winnipeg Jets — 2.7%
Philadelphia Flyers — 2.2%
Tampa Bay Lightning 1.8%
New York Islanders — 0.9%
TSN has a lengthy writeup on the history of the lottery and how the current format differs from other versions. The biggest change for the draft is that instead of the worst team being guaranteed, at worst, a second overall pick, they are only promised a top four pick. This was placed to discourage teams from “tanking” to draft top-end talent, which hasn’t completely negated the idea of tanking as Toronto won the right to draft Auston Matthews last season with the #1 pick while securing the worst record in the NHL.
What’s new to 2017? From Sportsnet:
For just the second time in NHL draft lottery history, the top three picks are in play. This rule was implemented by the league in 2016 to dull incentive for any team to finish lower in the standings (i.e., tanking).
The odds of winning the second and third draws increases on a proportional basis depending on which team claimed the previous draw.
The addition of a 15th lottery team, Vegas, into the mix also affects the winning percentages.
This draft is different too, since the top two picks for the first time in three seasons are not considered the “generational talent” that Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, Matthews or Patrik Laine were when looking back at the one and two overall picks respectively.
This isn’t to besmirch the top two candidates, Nolan Patrick or Nico Hischier. After all, “can’t miss” prospects have fooled scouts and analysts before while prospects that scouts didn’t think were as good sometimes exceeded expectations.
But before the talent can be chosen, there needs to be an order. Tonight will determine that.
Specifics:
Time: 7pm CST
Where to watch: CBC, Sportsnet, NBC
Anthony Stolarz And The Expansion Draft
The Philadelphia Flyers may not be desperate for a goalie, but they’re not in the best of shape either. Heading into the off-season, the Flyers will likely say goodbye to impending free agent starter Steve Mason, but re-signed Michal Neuvirth to a two-year, $5MM extension earlier this season. Behind Neuvirth, Philly has Anthony Stolarz, a 2012 second-round pick who looked great in seven appearances in his rookie season. The Flyers also have promising prospects Carter Hart and Felix Sandstrom in the system, but it seems unlikely that either is ready for NHL action just yet.
So it’ll be Neuvirth and Stolarz next season? That’s not too bad. However, this is the 2017 off-season approaching and nothing is that simple. Both Neuvirth and Stolarz are eligible for the upcoming NHL Expansion Draft and both should be attractive to GM George McPhee and the Vegas Golden Knights. Stolarz is young and under team control as a restricted free agent and could be valuable to Vegas as either an investment or a potential trade chip. Neuvirth is relatively cheap at $2.5MM per year through 2018-19 and was drafted by McPhee when he was with the Washington Capitals. He would immediately provide some veteran presence to a goalie group that is expected to skew very young.
The question then becomes: if Vegas has interest in both, who should Philadelphia protect? At first, the obvious answer seemed to be Stolarz. Not only is he much younger than Neuvirth, but he simply outplayed him when given the chance in 2016-17. Stolarz has just as good a chance to be the goalie of the future in Philly as any of the other Flyers’ keeper prospects. However, there was a wrinkle added to than plan recently when Stolarz was injured in an AHL game, suffering a serious knee injury that required surgery. Now, Stolarz is expected to be sidelined all summer and likely not ready for game action into next season. What that means for the Flyers is, if they stay the course and protect Stolarz, an expansion selection of Neuvirth leaves the Flyers with no goalies to start the 2017-18 campaign.
Is that threat enough for them to potentially lose a top-end young goalie? It might be. The Flyers already have about $60MM committed to just 16 players for their cap payroll next season, and while many of their reinforcements will come from the minor leagues, you can expect GM Ron Hextall to be on the lookout for some veteran assistance as well. That very well may include a goalie, even if they do retain Neuvirth and Stolarz. However, the Flyers may not have the cap flexibility to deal with a potential loss of Neuvirth on top of a Stolarz injury. Such a predicament may force Philly to look at top-end free agents like Ben Bishop or Ryan Miller or may cause them to have to add two mid-level options like Brian Elliott, Jonathan Bernier, or Darcy Kuemper or even a return to Mason. Either of those strategies would severely limit the team’s ability to add anyone else in free agency.
So that’s the situation: will the Flyers’ protect the future (Stolarz) at the possible expense of the present? Or will they play it safe (Neuvirth) and almost surely lose a talented young goalie? McPhee and the Knights would love to have Stolarz, but they may have their eye on Neuvirth as well. Either way, it’s your move Hextall.