Minor Transactions: 07/31/22
It’s been a long, slow grind since the craziness of free agency opening on July 13, with a good number of high-end free agents remaining unsigned. With many other leagues than just the NHL looking to get their rosters set for next season, though, that hasn’t been the case everywhere. Minor-league teams and overseas leagues are making moves and transactions to their squads every day, giving hockey fans something else to look at. We’ll keep track of today’s transactions right here.
- The most productive offensive defenseman in the KHL is changing leagues. Kolner Haie, a club in the German top league, the DEL, have signed defenseman Nick Bailen to a one-year contract. Bailen has spent the past five seasons playing for Traktor Chelyabinsk in the KHL. In his entire KHL career, Bailen has 233 points in 367 games over the course of eight seasons. Bailen’s run in Chelyabinsk was particularly successful these past two seasons, as he’s posted 77 points in 100 games. The five-foot-eight defender left North America after a nine-game run with the AHL Rochester Americans in 2012-13 to pursue opportunities in Europe, where he found immediate success in the Finnish Liiga with Tappara Tampere. This signing is a major win for Haie, as they are signing a proven, productive offensive defenseman from one of the best leagues outside of the NHL.
- Bryce Gervais, an AHL-er for the Iowa Wild last season, is headed overseas. The Stavanger Oilers, a club in Norway’s top men’s league, have announced their signing of Gervais to a contract for next season. The former Chicago Wolves regular returned to North America after a successful two-year run with the Heilbronn Falcons of the DEL-2, Germany’s second-tier league. Gervais struggled to make his mark in the AHL, scoring just nine points in 43 games on very little ice time per night. Gervais was one of Wild head coach Tim Army’s least-used forwards, and despite his increased role late in the season, his underwhelming play secured his exit from the Wild. Gervais will head to a league with lower competition in Norway and join an Oilers squad that were champions of the Fjordkraft-ligaen in 2021-22.
- Former KHL-er Nikolai Skladnichenko will be heading down a level of hockey for 2022-23. The Russian forward spent 2021-22 with Kristianstads IK of HockeyAllsvenskan in the second tier of Swedish hockey and has now signed a contract with the Nybro Vikings of HockeyEttan, Sweden’s third tier. Skladnichenko wasn’t bad for Kristianstads, scoring 14 goals and 26 points in 47 games, but the team has chosen to go in a different direction for next season, prompting this change. Skladnichenko should get an increased role at Nybro and will hope to help them achieve promotion to the Allsvenskan.
This page will be updated throughout the day.
Arbitration Breakdown: Yakov Trenin
While most of the players who had early arbitration dates have settled in recent days, that hasn’t been the case yet for the Predators and Yakov Trenin. They have until the start of the hearing on Tuesday to reach an agreement; once the hearing starts, they will have to go through the process and wait for the award.
Filings
Team: $1.35MM (two years)
Player: $2.4MM (one year)
Midpoint: $1.875MM
(via Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman)
The Numbers
Trenin finally broke into the NHL in 2020-21, becoming a full-time player with the Predators. While he had just 11 points in 45 games, but he added two goals in the team’s six-game playoff run and cemented his place as an everyday NHL-er. With that year as a base point, this past year was when Trenin really made a name for himself in Nashville.
Functioning as part of the Predators’ “Herd” line with rookie Tanner Jeannot and veteran Colton Sissons, Trenin became a fan favorite, playing with the sort of passion that wows crowds and flusters opponents. Trenin’s line became central to the Predators’ desired “Smashville” team identity under coach John Hynes, and Trenin’s work ethic and physical style earned him an increased role.
In 80 games, Trenin had just 24 points. On paper, that’s not notable offensive production by any means. But 17 of those points were goals, and Trenin also had three goals in the team’s four-game playoff sweep at the hands of the eventual champions, the Colorado Avalanche. All of Trenin’s goals came at even strength, as he saw virtually no power-play time. Trenin also made himself valuable on the defensive side of the ice, skating as a second-unit penalty killer for most of the year.
In total, the package of skills Trenin brings to the table is intriguing. Trenin’s old-school, passionate game is one that has endeared him to fans and coaches alike. He scores goals at even strength, and perhaps he could even hit 20 goals with some shooting luck if we consider 17 to be a baseline. And, in addition to all that, Trenin is a capable penalty killer, effective defensive winger, and important member of a Predators line that looks like a set-in-stone trio for years to come. The points don’t jump off the page, and he doesn’t have an extensive track record, but if he can repeat his 2021-22 performance, he’s the kind of player that any team in the NHL would love to have.
2021-22 Stats: 80 GP, 17G 7A 24pts, 46 PIMS, 136 shots, 14:40 ATOI
Career Stats: 146 GP, 24G 17A 41pts, 77 PIMS, 223 shots, 13:00 ATOI
Potential Comparables
Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used. The contracts below fit within those parameters. Player salaries also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides of Trenin’s negotiation.
William Carrier (Golden Knights) – Carrier is admittedly on the lower end of comparable players, as his goal-scoring hasn’t come close to the heights Trenin has been able to reach. While Trenin’s 17-goal season dwarfs Carrier’s career high of eight in 54 games, if we set aside goal scoring, the comparison becomes clearer. Carrier has a relatively similar play style to Trenin: highly aggressive, physical, with a pace-pushing, always-active tempo. But since Carrier is an inferior goal-scorer and does not offer the same defensive/penalty-killing value, his $1.4MM cap hit should be seen as a floor for any Trenin contract.
Max Comtois (Ducks) – Finding a comparable for Trenin is difficult given the unique offerings present in Trenin’s game, but Comtois is a solid one nonetheless. More of an offensive player than Trenin, he signed a two-year deal with the Ducks after a breakout 2020-21 campaign, a deal worth just a shade over $2MM per year. Comtois scored 16 goals and 33 points in just 55 games in his platform year, better production than Trenin, but did so with more power-play opportunities than Trenin and a role higher in the lineup. He also doesn’t provide the sort of defensive value Trenin provides, although he wasn’t asked to shoulder much of a defensive load by coach Dallas Eakins. The Predators could simply point to Comtois’ scoring numbers and argue that Trenin, as a less productive player, has to be worth less than Comtois’ deal, but such a case would be discounting the intangible ways Trenin impacts the game.
Projection
Trenin is a difficult arbitration case to project because his overall value on the ice is difficult to capture on a piece of paper. The “points” column of a scoresheet might be the single most important area of evaluation for a player when it comes to contract negotiation, and that’s where Trenin’s case is weakest. But everywhere else, Trenin presents a strong case to be worth the $2.4MM he’s demanding. He’s a genuinely useful third-liner who has a ton to like in his game.
That being said, the lack of comparables doesn’t help Trenin, as there isn’t a sort of precedent-setting contract to guide an arbitrator. Additionally, the recent contract for Comtois, who was significantly more productive, coming in at around $2MM AAV, doesn’t help him in his chase of a number above that mark. Perhaps Trenin’s lack of experience, as this past year was his first true full regular season in the NHL, is what will hurt his case the most.
But, even with that in mind, after laying out all the positives in his game, it’s really difficult to make a compelling argument for why Trenin is worth less than $2MM on his next contract. He scores goals, brings all the sorts of physical intangibles coaches and fans want to see, and can kill penalties and provide legitimate defensive value.
With that whole package of skills brought to the table, the dollar values of the filings from each side may feel a bit low. That means this arbitration case will be a fascinating one to follow as we inch closer to August 2nd.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Nick Shore Signs In Switzerland
Former NHL-er Nick Shore, who has just under 300 NHL games on his resume, will be staying overseas after a successful KHL debut. Swiss club HC Ambri-Piotta announced today that they’ve signed Shore to a one-year contract.
Shore, 29, signed with KHL club Nobosibirsk Sibir for 2021-22 and led the team in scoring with 10 goals and 26 points in 49 games. Sibir head coach Andrei Martemjanov counted on Shore as one of his most trustworthy forwards, relying on him in all situations and on both special teams units. His strong play in the KHL and time in the NHL secured him a spot on the United States’ squad for the 2022 Winter Olympics, where he had an assist in three games.
Shore will be heading to the Swiss league for the second time in his career, as he last played there in 2020-21, for EV Zug, the eventual champions. Shore actually initially signed in the Slovakian league that year, but he quickly proved he was overqualified for the talent level there, scoring ten points in just five games. He moved to Switzerland and found immediate success at Zug, scoring 27 points in 22 games and eight points in 13 playoff games. Shore’s success in Switzerland is what earned him his KHL contract, and now he heads back to Switzerland where he could resume his role as a top-six all-around scoring threat.
For HC Ambri-Piotta, signing Shore is a coup. He’s a proven scorer in their league and has championship experience. Ambri-Piotta had the third-worst offense in the Swiss league last season, so their signing of Shore should definitely help them improve in that area.
As he’s just 29 years old, another strong, above-point-per-game year in Switzerland could be exactly what Shore needs to earn a training camp invite and get another chance to make an NHL team.
Free Agent Profile: Evan Rodrigues
As he was enjoying a breakout season at the age of 28, many believed Pittsburgh Penguins forward Evan Rodrigues had put himself in perfect position to hit the open market this summer. A center who was good in his own end, Rodrigues finally found offensive success making him a true two-way forward and a perfect fit in almost any team’s middle-six. Given the Penguins cap situation and needing to re-sign Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, and Rickard Rakell, it appeared that Rodrigues would be too rich of an asset to remain with the club and could move on with a payday elsewhere. However, more than two weeks after the start of free agency, Rodrigues remains unsigned, with very little buzz around his name. After a season with 19 goals and 24 assists, shattering previous bests, it’s interesting to find Rodrigues still without any bites, at least that we are aware of.
Prior to this season, Rodrigues’ previous career best in points had been 25, which had come in 48 games with the Buffalo Sabres in 2017-18, a similar points-per-game pace to this season. That season was the forward’s first of a two-year contract that carried a $650K AAV. In 2018-19, Rodrigues took a step back, hitting what was then a career-high 29 points, but doing so in 74 games. An RFA, Rodrigues was awarded a $2MM salary via arbitration for the 2019-20 season. After that summer of 2019 arbitration award, Rodrigues struggled to rebound, recording just 24 points in 80 games between the Buffalo Sabres and Pittsburgh Penguins over the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons. This year, however, Rodrigues was able to show he is capable of being the player he was in 2017-18 with his 43-point breakout performance.
So, the question remains: what is holding Rodrigues’ market back? Of course, he’s not exactly teammate Sidney Crosby, but he has shown he has plenty to offer. One concern would be that, over six seasons with regular NHL games played, the veteran has only ever matched his 2021-22 production once, back in that 2017-18 season. Another concern is consistency. Looking closer at this season, Rodrigues was a borderline All-Star-caliber player, recording 32 of his 43 points in just 46 games prior to the All Star break. A dominant first-half indeed, he regressed to only 11 points in 36 games after the break.
Rodrigues’ pros and cons provide a basis for a negotiation, but still don’t get to the answer of why he’s still on the market? The answer may lie in the fact that Rodrigues recently turned 29 years of age and is coming off of his best season to date. He could very well view this as his best chance to secure a contract with very attractive term and salary, and is not willing to settle on either front. From a front office perspective, Rodrigues has shown flashes of being a 40-point, or maybe even 50-point player, but absent certain stellar stretches, he’s mostly been a 25-30 point player. Given the cap crunch all 32 teams are facing and having potentially found more statistically consistent players on the free agent and trade markets already, teams are weary of giving Rodrigues what he’d want (term and salary) without knowing which kind of player he really is.
Stats:
2021-22: 82 GP, 19-24-43, +3 rating, 14 PIMs, 243 shots, 59.8 CF%, 15:50 ATOI
Career: 316 GP, 53-76-159, -30 rating, 77 PIMs, 701 shots, 53.7 CF%, 14:24 ATOI
Potential Suitors:
Even if the market is slow and he doesn’t wind up with the contract he was hoping for, Rodrigues shouldn’t have an issue actually finding a suitor when he and teams are ready. The player Rodrigues was in the first half of this year was intriguing, but the player he has been for a majority of his career, that of a reliable two-way, bottom-six center that could give flashes of offense is always in demand, from Cup contenders to middle of the pack teams to rebuilders.
What exactly the veteran’s contract expectations are and how much, if at all, he is willing to compromise, will dictate what teams are able to be in the market for him. His poise and ability to play for a perennial contender like the Penguins, alongside the likes of Crosby, Malkin, and Letang stands to show that Rodrigues can handle the bright lights and the pressure that playoff and playoff-implicating games bring. Competitive teams who could use another forward for their middle or bottom-six, such as the Edmonton Oilers, New York Rangers, or even a reunion with the Penguins, make sense, but these teams are all close to, if not over, the salary cap.
Teams that are trying to get over or away from the salary cap floor, like the Anaheim Ducks, Arizona Coyotes, and Chicago Blackhawks, could be options for Rodrigues, all of whom not only can pay, but may want to pay for their own reasons. Maybe not some of the most attractive options, they could give Rodrigues an expanded role, valuing his leadership and providing more opportunities to repeat his offensive production. The Minnesota Wild, New York Islanders, and Calgary Flames, who could use another secondary-scoring option and have the cap space to make a solid offer along with an opportunity to be competitive may also be very strong options for Rodrigues, who could have the best of both worlds in terms of contract and competitiveness in those destinations.
Projected Contract:
Rodrigues came in 24th on our Top 50 UFAs list in early July. There, we projected a three-year, $3MM AAV contract with the Minnesota Wild. The Wild could very well be in the mix for Rodrigues, but at this point, it’s unlikely the forward will find the contract we had projected for him with a competitive team like the Wild, Islanders, Flames, Oilers, Rangers, or Penguins, all of whom are mentioned above. But, if a contract along those lines is a sticking point, it might not be out of the realm of possibility that a team like the Ducks, Coyotes, or Blackhawks could make the offer, betting on Rodrigues’ production and his value as an asset down the road. Ultimately, given his career track record, it’s still unlikely at this point in time that the 29-year-old is headed towards a PTO in training camp, even if it does mean taking what might be seen as an underwhelming offer.
Alexander Nikishin, Fyodor Svechkov, Nikita Chibrikov Traded In The KHL
In what has been a quiet day for North American hockey so far, a blockbuster trade went down over in the KHL, involving Alexander Nikishin, one of the Carolina Hurricanes’ top prospects. In exchange for sending the young defenseman to SKA St. Petersburg, Spartak Moscow receives forwards Fyodor Svechkov, Nikita Chibrikov, Pavel Kukshtel, and Maxim Krovyakov, defenseman Nikita Sedov, as well as the KHL rights to forwards Mikhail Maltsev, German Rubtsov, Ivan Morozov, and Kirill Marchenko. The deal was announced by Spartak Moscow on Twitter, and confirmed in North America by The Athletic’s Corey Pronman, who adds that its expected Nikishin will sign an extension with SKA.
Though the trade does not contain any one superstar player in the KHL, it’s a trade of plenty of young talent for one very talented young player. Outside of Sedov, Moscow is receiving players with little to no KHL experience, but mostly all standouts in the lower VHL and MHL levels in Russia. Sedov, on the other hand, does have KHL experience, getting into 67 games at the KHL level over the past two seasons between SKA and Sochi, but like the rest of the players in this trade, is quite young, at just 21 years of age. One thing worth considering when looking at the size of the haul that Spartak is receiving, is that some of these players, like Svechkov and Chibrikov, have very real NHL futures and could head to North America when their contracts expire. Thus, while Spartak receives a bevy of young talent, it’s a group they will have to comb through to see who will be their building blocks. Regardless, they will be able to hold onto their KHL rights should the players leave for another league. By making this trade, SKA parts with a lot of talent, but receives a reliable young defenseman who is expected to sign an extension, which should give some predictability for the organization.
From an NHL perspective, the players of note include Nikishin, Svechkov and Chibrikov – very real NHL prospects under contracts in Russia. A third-round pick of the Hurricanes in 2020, Nikishin has spent parts of the past three seasons at the KHL level with Spartak, totaling nine goals and 11 assists in 95 games as a defenseman, and even appeared in six games on Russia’s Olympic team this winter. Signing an extension overseas does complicate things for Carolina, but doesn’t foreclose any possibility of the young blueliner ever coming to North America. If anything, playing regularly for one of the better teams in Russia’s top league should greatly assist in his development.
Svechkov was the Nashville Predators first-round selection, 19th overall in 2021. The forward made his KHL debut in 2021-22, getting in four games, but was primarily a dynamic playmaker for SKA’s VHL team, where he had nine goals and 22 assists in 30 games. The 50th overall selection in 2021, to the Winnipeg Jets, Chibrikov is another dynamic forward who spent time at the KHL, VHL, and MHL levels this season with SKA. The majority of his time was also spent with Svechkov in the VHL, where he had an impressive 15 goals and 16 assists in 28 games.
The amount of talent in this transaction is surely eye-popping and does have NHL impact, not only with these three but also with the players who’s KHL rights were traded. What the exact impacts on these players and their respective NHL clubs winds up being is yet to be determined, but does provide an interesting wrinkle in their development.
Free Agent Profile: Phil Kessel
In his peak throughout the 2010s, Phil Kessel was a consistent 30-goal threat, displaying his electric shooting talent en route to back-to-back Stanley Cup championships with the Pittsburgh Penguins (and with the Toronto Maple Leafs before that). While Kessel’s move to Arizona for the last three seasons may have left him forgotten in some circles, he’s coming off his best season in three years.
Despite a career-low 4.6 shooting percentage, Kessel will pitch his relatively high point total, especially given the poor state of affairs in Arizona, to convince teams he’s still a credible threat. And, looking at his strong play-driving numbers from last season, he may have a point. Despite seeing his ice time dip to its lowest point during his three years in Arizona, Kessel still managed to finish within 11 points of the team lead at age 34.
It’s not often that a 34-year-old is on the open market with a strong reason to invest in a rebound season, but that’s the case with Kessel. Even if his defense hasn’t been pretty lately, it was never a selling point to his game. Considering his career average shooting percentage sits over 10 percent, expecting Kessel to have a stronger offensive season in 2022-23, at least in terms of putting pucks in the net, is a safe bet.
His Stanley Cup pedigree should also make him an attractive option for teams looking for affordable depth to help push them over the hump to a Stanley Cup.
Stats
2021-22: 82 GP, 8-44-52, -24 rating, 40 PIMs, 175 shots, 45.3 CF%, 16:41 ATOI
Career: 1204 GP, 399-557-956, -148 rating, 372 PIMs, 3700 shots, 49.3 CF%, 18:02 ATOI
Potential Suitors
Kessel should find a home before a lot of other veterans are forced to settle for PTOs as training camps begin. While he’s not what he used to be, he still had more than 50 points last season. With his low price tag, he should be an attractive option as teams continue to tinker with their rosters during the month of August.
There could be a spot for him in the bottom six of a retooled Calgary Flames forward group. While Jakob Pelletier is a strong candidate to make a jump to the NHL next season after a strong season in Stockton, Kessel could challenge other veterans such as Milan Lucic or Sean Monahan for playing time at a cheaper price and more goal-scoring upside. He could go Cup-chasing with the Colorado Avalanche as well, as they’ve lost some depth forwards such as Andre Burakovsky and Nicolas Aube-Kubel. He could also stand to be a solid secondary scoring option for the Minnesota Wild after they lost Kevin Fiala.
If he wants to head back East, the New York Rangers, Ottawa Senators, and Florida Panthers are a trio of teams that could use him in their bottom six.
Projected Contract
Kessel came in 23rd on our Top 50 UFAs list in early July. While he likely won’t command the $2MM AAV we predicted at this point, there’s still a solid chance he could earn seven figures and not have to settle for a league minimum deal. It all likely depends on the cap situation of the team Kessel opts to sign with, as after over $90MM in career earnings, per CapFriendly, money likely won’t be a huge factor in his decision.
Looking Back At The First Round Of The 2005 NHL Entry Draft
On this date 17 years ago, the first round of the 2005 NHL Entry Draft was held at the Westin Hotel in Ottawa. It was the league’s first major event since the lockout that cost them the entire 2004-05 season ended just over a week prior, and considering the draft’s top prize, there was added intrigue.
With the lack of regular-season standings to determine the draft order, the league implemented a snake draft system to make things more equitable for teams in later rounds that didn’t fare so well in the draft lottery. One team that did fare well that night, though, was the Pittsburgh Penguins, who cemented a 15-plus year run of success by drafting future captain Sidney Crosby with the first overall pick.
Five players selected that night went on to appear in at least 1,000 NHL games, including Crosby. One was 2022 Stanley Cup Champion Jack Johnson, taken third overall by the Carolina Hurricanes. Johnson never played a single game for Carolina, though, as he was traded the following offseason to the Los Angeles Kings along with defenseman Oleg Tverdovsky in exchange for defenseman Tim Gleason and center Eric Belanger.
Johnson wasn’t the only player from the first round to play meaningful games for the Kings, though. The team selected two-time Stanley Cup champion and future captain Anze Kopitar with the 11th overall selection. Another thousand-gamer was selected directly after him when the New York Rangers picked defenseman Marc Staal 12th overall, while Johnson’s teammate on the 2022 Avalanche, forward Andrew Cogliano, was selected 25th by the Edmonton Oilers.
One name from that night who could still join the 1,000-game club was St. Louis Blues selection and current Washington Capitals forward T.J. Oshie. Taken 24th overall, he only needs 100 more appearances to hit the mark.
Future Stanley Cup-winning skaters weren’t the only future legends drafted that night, though. Two of the greatest goalies in recent memory were drafted that night, with the Montreal Canadiens selecting Carey Price with the fifth overall pick and the Toronto Maple Leafs selecting Tuukka Rask with the 21st overall pick, of course prior to trading him to the Boston Bruins the following season.
Just three players selected that night, all taken within four picks of each other, would never make an NHL appearance. Slovak forward Marek Zagrapan, drafted 13th overall by the Buffalo Sabres, played just three years in the organization with two different AHL affiliates, scoring 20 goals there just once. At 35 years old, Zagrapan is still active, playing the 2022-23 season in the French Ligue Magnus.
Directly after him, the Washington Capitals took Canadian defenseman Sasha Pokulok with the 14th overall pick. The first overage player taken in the draft, he’s arguably the biggest bust of the night. He never spent a full season in the AHL, bouncing up and down between there and the ECHL for four seasons after turning pro in 2006. He failed to make a notable impact in Europe, too, only lasting one season in the DEL (2010-11) before floating around various lower-level leagues in Eastern Europe and Quebec.
Lastly, there’s Canadian winger Alex Bourret, taken by the Atlanta Thrashers at 16th overall. A short but strong power winger, Bourret had a very successful junior career in the QMJHL that just didn’t translate. His North American career fizzled out quickly after a strong start in the AHL, but after being traded twice (first to the Rangers, then to the Coyotes), he had just 14 points in 48 AHL games during his final season there in 2008-09.
Snapshots: Boyle, Oettinger, Domi
Free agent center Brian Boyle had a nice comeback season with Pittsburgh in 2021-22, recording 11 goals and 10 assists in 66 games with Pittsburgh after not playing at all the year before. Despite that, he wasn’t tendered an offer to remain with the Penguins when free agency opened up. However, Dave Molinari of Pittsburgh Hockey Now notes that the 37-year-old is hoping to play again next season and is hoping that a return to Pittsburgh isn’t out of the question. After playing on a deal for the league minimum a year ago, it’s likely that Boyle’s market value would be at that level again so he’s likely to remain on the open market for a little while longer until those types of contracts start to be signed closer to the beginning of training camp.
Elsewhere around the hockey world:
- With Dallas likely only having enough cap space to commit a long-term deal to just one of winger Jason Robertson and goalie Jake Oettinger, both Mike Heika and Bruce LeVine of the Stars’ team website suggest that Oettinger should be the one to receive a bridge deal. The 23-year-old had a strong year with a .914 SV% and a 2.53 GAA in 48 games but there isn’t much history of young goalies bypassing bridge contracts and going straight to a long-term pact. With just 77 career NHL appearances under his belt, a bridge deal certainly makes sense. He has four seasons of RFA eligibility left so there would still be ample time to work out a long-term agreement before Oettinger is eligible to hit the open market.
- Max Domi wasted little time signing with the Blackhawks in free agency, inking a one-year, $3MM deal. Choosing to go to a team that has entered an extended rebuild may seem surprising but the 27-year-old told reporters, including Charlie Roumeliotis of NBC Sports Chicago, that their decision to hire Luke Richardson prompted Domi to tell his agent that Chicago was where he wanted to go with a deal being agreed to just before free agency opened up. Richardson was on the coaching staff with Montreal for Domi’s two seasons with the Canadiens and clearly, the new bench boss made a positive impression.
PHR Mailbag: Offer Sheets, Sabres, Kane, Blue Jackets, Kings, Fletcher, Predictions
Topics in this edition of the mailbag include offer sheet candidates in Vegas, Buffalo’s offseason, Chuck Fletcher’s future in Philadelphia, and much more. If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.
aka.nda: Any thoughts you’d like to share on the Golden Knights? As a Kraken fan, earlier, I was hoping they’d offer sheet Nicolas Roy, which I’m told is uncommon. Seems like he could be had for a deal. Think any teams are contemplating offer sheeting anyone out there, not just VGK’s?
While there have been a couple in recent years, offer sheets are still indeed quite rare. In a marketplace where many teams are looking to clear money, it’s hard to think that there are teams that will be willing to place an above-market offer to try to land a restricted free agent. It doesn’t help that a lot of the teams that have enough cap space (plus their own draft picks) to attempt to go this route are teams that aren’t particularly interested in trying to compete right now and thus are likely disinclined to do an offer sheet that will cost them draft picks.
I think you’re correct in identifying Vegas as a team that’s particularly vulnerable to an offer sheet. Roy, in particular, is a viable candidate. His camp clearly knows that as by not filing for salary arbitration earlier this month, he’s still eligible to receive one. A one-year offer sheet in the second-round pick tier ($4.2MM) might be enough to get him to sign as it would represent a substantial raise from the minimum salary he received the last two years. Defenseman Nicolas Hague is another player who would be an intriguing offer sheet candidate.
I’m intrigued to see what Vegas is going to do. They’ll clearly be in LTIR after acquiring the rest of Shea Weber’s contract and Nolan Patrick could wind up there for the season as well with the uncertainty surrounding his future. Notwithstanding the various mechanics involved with the timing of those placements that can affect the actual cap space, that’d give them around $7.5MM to work with, to use a simple number. Is that enough for Roy, Hague, Keegan Kolesar, and at least one other forward making the minimum?
If that’s the plan, they’re going to hold out and try to get Hague to take a really cheap one-year deal (he didn’t have arbitration eligibility) and then there might be enough left to commit a medium-term contract to Roy that buys out a UFA year or two. But even with that, they’ll be ‘creative’ with their LTIR usage all season long. If nothing else, they’re clearly used to navigating that situation.
sabres3277: Do you think the Sabres did enough in free agency or should they be interested in Nino Niederreiter to add some grit and physicality to the forward position?? Or maybe get involved in making a trade for some more forward help while not bankrupting the future??
Let’s look at Buffalo’s free agent additions since the market opened up. Eric Comrie came over to be a platoon partner with Craig Anderson in goal and they added Ilya Lyubushkin to add some grit and physicality on the back end. (Niederreiter signed in Nashville not long after this question was posed.) That’s a pretty small list of additions.
Allow me to pose a question back for a moment – what is Buffalo’s goal this season? Their actions (or lack thereof) tell me that it’s not time to flip the switch to try to win. What they did was shield their youngsters – Comrie’s addition allows Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen to go back to AHL Rochester and Lyubushkin gives a bit of protection to a back end whose next-oldest player is Jacob Bryson who’s only 24.
In that spirit, yes, they did enough in free agency. What little they did was for their youngsters and they’re going to try to continue to develop their young core. That’s basically all they really needed to do so I think GM Kevyn Adams did enough by not doing much of anything.
That said, I have no issues with them adding a forward in the right scenario. So many teams are looking to clear up cap space and teams with that space can leverage future assets for taking that deal on. If there’s an expiring contract that a team needs to shed and that team is willing to part with a draft pick and/or prospect to make that happen, Buffalo would be wise to jump on that. There will be injuries and some youngsters will struggle so another forward certainly wouldn’t hurt and if that forward can be flipped with retention at the deadline for more future assets, even better.
That’s the type of trade to make for them right now, not one that requires moving future assets away. There will come a time for that type of move (I’m thinking a couple of seasons from now for them to start that transition) but it’s not yet.
@Joebad34TD: What is the current rumor on Patrick Kane’s trade destination, and is Buffalo a potential team of interest for both parties?
The latest on Kane is that there’s a report that Chicago is listening to offers and a report that they’re not listening to offers. Admittedly, that’s not a lot to run with here but the uncertainty is an accurate depiction of where things stand. At this point, his camp hasn’t approached the team about a trade and the Blackhawks have already said they won’t go to him to try to move him.
At this point, I think just about everyone thinks that will change at some point. Chicago appears to have no interest in trying to compete next season (or for a few years) and that’s unlikely to appeal to Kane at this stage of his career. In all likelihood, his thoughts are probably similar to that of Jonathan Toews’ opinions which were voiced earlier this week.
As we’ve seen in recent weeks, it’s hard to move money and Kane has a cap hit of $10.5MM. That’s a lot of money. At the trade deadline in February, three-quarters (give or take) will be paid which is a lot easier for contenders to absorb, particularly if the Blackhawks are willing to retain on the contract to facilitate a trade. Whoever is a playoff contender and has some needed cap flexibility will be the ones to watch for at that time.
Buffalo clearly isn’t a playoff contender so they have no reason to trade for Kane. Yes, he’s from there and they’ll probably kick tires on him in free agency but a team that’s expected to not be all that close to the postseason chase shouldn’t be gearing up to try to acquire what likely will be the top rental player available at the deadline. Unless there was a guarantee that acquiring him early would result in an extension, don’t expect to see them linked to Kane next season.
baji kimran: If Columbus offered Arizona Jake Bean, Alexandre Texier, Gustav Nyquist, and two #1 draft picks for Jakob Chychrun, would that be enough to get a deal done? The point is the Jackets are trying to acquire Chychrun and free up cap space to sign Laine If not, what do you think would be acceptable to the Coyotes? Also, how long will Johnny Gaudreau have to appear on podcasts and apologize for signing with the Blue Jackets?
Clearly, the scenario has now changed since the question was posted with Patrik Laine re-signing and Oliver Bjorkstrand being the cap casualty but that’s an offer that I think Arizona would give serious consideration to. Bean is a little too far removed from being a first-rounder to automatically be one of the three first-round elements they’ve been believed to be seeking but two firsts is a strong start while Bean and Texier are youngsters that could be around for a while and should more than offset taking on the rest of Nyquist’s deal. Such a move probably isn’t happening now but there’s a framework for a deal that might be enough to meet Arizona’s high asking price.
As for Gaudreau, I hope the public appearance tour has come to an end. No matter how much he tries to smooth things over, it’s not going to make any sort of difference for most Calgary fans. He informed them less than 24 hours before the start of free agency that he wouldn’t re-sign, preventing the Flames from getting anything in return for him. Even if he had signed closer to home in New Jersey, there would have been resentment with that decision. Now, compare what happened to what Matthew Tkachuk did (which happened after this question was posed), that’s going to paint Gaudreau in an even more negative light.
He decided to leave Calgary which was his right having qualified for unrestricted free agency. But fans of the Flames aren’t going to simply shrug their shoulders and go ‘Oh well, it was fun while it lasted’. No, they’re going to be upset, understandably so, no matter what Gaudreau says publicly. The sooner he realizes that, the better.
bigalval: How would you grade the Kings’ offseason? I think they have done a great job and Kopitar’s contract has two years left and Quick has one year left so it will free up some more money thoughts?
Johnny Z: To add to this: what LD will they pursue?
I’d have their summer in the B/B- range. I don’t mind the Kevin Fiala trade but I don’t like the contract. He has one season with more than 25 goals and 55 points under his belt. They’re paying him like he’ll be a 75-point player for the duration of that deal. I don’t think he will produce at that level consistently in a lesser offensive environment.
Adrian Kempe’s contract was going to be painful thanks to his platform season but $5.5MM for a player who, until 2021-22, produced at the level of a third-liner, is risky, to put it lightly. Is he a 35-goal player moving forward? Probably not. Is he a 25-goal forward? Even that I’d be hesitant to agree on.
These contracts basically took them out of the market of trying to add a left defenseman. They barely could afford to bring Alex Edler back and will have to pursue one-year deals with Michael Anderson and Sean Durzi to stay cap-compliant. Sure, they’re better with the addition of Fiala but they still have a back end that thins out fairly quickly.
Yes, there is some cap flexibility on the horizon with their expiring contracts but a good chunk of that will be eaten up as their younger core comes off their entry-level deals. They’re not going to be in cap trouble but for as close as they’re going to get this year, I thought they’d have tried to shore up more than just finding an improvement on Dustin Brown. It’s not a bad offseason and they’ll be in the playoff race hence the grade in the B range but I don’t think they got enough accomplished for the cap space they had two months ago.
DonnieBaseBallHOFer: Please make Fletcher’s moves (or rather lack thereof) make sense…Give a 50+ year fan some glimmer of hope?
Feels like the whole next season is just built on Ifs…if this guy comes back, if Torts can turn things around…Please tell me there is more of a plan than this?
EMoney123: When do the Flyers cut Chuck Fletcher loose considering salary cap, poor roster construction, and the poor PR of not signing Gaudreau?
The lack of moves actually makes some sense to me. From his standpoint, his team on paper should have been better last season. Frankly, I don’t disagree with that; they should have been better than what they were. Where we disagree is on whether this roster is good enough to contend when everyone is healthy. I’m not as confident in that as Fletcher seems to be.
I even understand the lack of movement. We’ve seen the cost of moving money this summer. It’s not pretty. Would it have been justifiable to part with a high pick or top prospect (or a combination of picks and prospects) to clear James van Riemsdyk off the books? As a non-playoff team, probably not. One could quibble about adding Anthony DeAngelo on that contract but with Ryan Ellis’ availability appearing to be in question again, I can’t fault the logic of looking for insurance although if everyone is healthy, that’s a very pricey back end. That’d be a good problem for them to have at this point.
There are a lot of ifs with this team and if they hit on most of them, they can be in the Wild Card mix. They didn’t hire John Tortorella for his long-term coaching acumen; he’s someone that has a shorter-term shelf life with an expectation of short-term success. The boost from him, the return to health of some key players, and a bounce-back year from Carter Hart and voila, that’s the plan to return to being in the playoff battle.
As for Fletcher’s future, I’m always hesitant to publicly speculate on people losing their jobs. That said, I think he is running out of moves to make if things don’t go as planned again. He has played the coaching change card and with how tough it is to move contracts this summer, the roster basically is what it is and most of it (with van Riemsdyk being a notable exception) are players that he has brought in or signed to their current deals. This is his team, for better or for worse. If this doesn’t work, ownership will have to consider if Fletcher is the right one to make the necessary connections and with the way last season went, there may not be much of a leash left for him.
Atlantic Notes: Maple Leafs, Maatta, Nadeau
With the Maple Leafs showing as being over the cap by nearly $1.5MM per CapFriendly, many expect them to be among the teams looking to make a cap-shedding trade over the coming weeks. However, Sports Illustrated’s David Alter suggests that such a move isn’t necessarily needed right away, even when RFA defenseman Rasmus Sandin re-signs. With the offseason cushion in place for another couple of months, there’s still some time to work with and by the end of training camp, things could change from an injury standpoint. Alternatively, Toronto could opt to carry a 20-player roster which, depending on which players are waived and potentially sent down, could narrowly get them compliant to start the season, especially if Sandin settles for a low-cost one-year deal. At this point, it’d be a little surprising if Toronto didn’t find a way to create a little cap flexibility but they still have some time to work things out.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic:
- Although Olli Maatta signed a one-year deal with the Red Wings, he told reporters including Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press that his intention is to be with Detroit for the long haul. The 27-year-old has seen his value dip in recent years compared to his early seasons with Pittsburgh although he was still able to get $2.25MM from Detroit and a chance at a spot in their top four. Top prospect Simon Edvinsson might be up with the Red Wings at some point next season so Maatta will have a limited window to show that he’s worthy of that role and a longer-term agreement with Detroit.
- Sabres prospect Olivier Nadeau underwent shoulder surgery last week and will miss the next four-to-six months, reports Jean-Francois Plante of Le Droit. The 19-year-old had a strong showing with QMJHL Shawinigan last season with 78 points in 65 games while adding four goals and two assists at the Memorial Cup. Nadeau was traded to Gatineau this summer but some of that return will be rescinded as a result of the extended absence; a clause was put into the trade in case surgery was needed.