RFAs Looking For Playoff Payouts
Every post-season, players look to make their mark. Relative unknowns break onto the scene, rookies steal the show, and goaltenders go from backup to fan-embraced starter. Contracts are always in the back of management’s thinking, however, and a strong post-season showing for a player can cost a team in dollars. Here are some restricted free agents who could stand to earn a more lucrative deal depending on how far their teams go and how bright they shine individually.
Ryan Johansen – NSH
Johansen will look to get a slight raise from his current $4.0 MM cap hit. A large determinant for whether he will see a take-home pay ($6.0 MM) decrease or not will be his performance in these playoffs. Johansen’s past two seasons have been fruitful in terms of points, 60 in 15-16 and 61 in 16-17, but not quite the numbers of the marquee offensive star Nashville fans were hoping for. This is a player who scored 33 goals in the 13-14 season, and was projected to consistently flirt with 80 points. Johansen’s imposing frame and play-style is a challenge for opposing centers, and he has undeniably improved his defensive prowess. Johansen only potted 14 goals this year, but it is fair to say his game has become more well-rounded. His Corsi For % took a massive hop from last season, taking a solid 52.3% to a remarkable 55.9% this past outing. Considering his quality of competition and his ability to provide solid two-way play, Johansen will be looking to prove his worth this post-season with a deep post-season run with the Predators.
Evgeny Kuznetsov – WAS
Washington’s Kuznetsov should definitely be considered part of the team’s core. At 24 years old, the center has already tallied a 77 point season and had a 5-goal playoff run. His inconsistency in terms of production could hinder his payday, however, as he struggled to regain his footing in what was essentially his third full season. He returned to form on the backend of the season, totaling a respectable if unremarkable 59 points. The flashy forward already has 3 points through 5 games against Toronto, and a strong playoff showing can only help his position. With Nicklas Backstrom taking first-line duties and the red-hot Justin Williams on his wing, Kuznetsov could easily find himself in the spotlight again. Whether his next contract is a bridge deal at a lower cost or a long-term lock-down, Kuznetsov is certain to see a raise from his measly $3 MM.
Leon Draisaitl – EDM
Anyone who has watched Edmonton this season in hopes of catching a glimpse of Connor McDavid has undoubtedly been shocked and/or awed by the dominance of his 21 year-old linemate Draisaitl. Draisaitl’s vision with the puck and dogged determination make him a beautiful sight to behold. He accumulated an absurd 77 points this season, 29 goals and 48 assists, in what was only his second full season. The forward is already flirting with a point per game, and has shown remarkable chemistry with the generational talent McDavid. His flexibility in being able to shift from center to wing only makes him that much more valuable to the franchise. The Oilers will obviously pay whatever price is needed to lock up Draisaitl long-term, but the deeper the team goes, the better his bargaining position. He’s obviously going to get a fair deal more than his current $3.4 MM, likely upwards of $6 MM.
Conor Sheary – PIT
Conor Sheary had an incredible breakout season that practically no one, even Penguins fans, expected. On Sidney Crosby‘s wing, the short-statured winger made himself absolutely invaluable. The chemistry the two showed together hadn’t really been seen since the likes of Hossa in Pittsburgh’s Finals run of 2007-08. Sheary is in a bit of a bind, however, as Jake Guentzel has shown equal or even greater chemistry with the league’s marquee center since being placed on the top line. Sheary struggled to find his groove in the first round series, even being demoted to the third line in favor of Patric Hornqvist. Sheary is a good bet to string together solid showings in the next round, but if he does not, perhaps it impacts his case for a long-term contract. Regardless, Sheary will look to eat up a large portion of the money allocated this offseason in Pittsburgh, as his current $0.925 MM cap hit is one of the best bargains in the league. His 53 points in 61 games placed him at 23rd in the league in points per game, ahead of the likes of Phil Kessel and John Tavares.
Mika Zibanejad – NYR
The Rangers organization loves this player, and it is easy to see why. His point totals had steadily increased the past three seasons, and he was looking to do so again if he did not miss so many games to injury. Zibanejad is a strong center who takes pride in his two-way ability. He has a solid shot, although he might be criticized for under-utlizing it, and is often deployed against opposing team’s top players. Considering that New York gave up the solid veteran Derick Brassard to acquire his skillset, they are nearly certain to double down on Zibanejad’s continued improvement. His role will only expand as the leadership of the team ages and he will be expected to fill some of the leadership void left behind. Zibanejad is up for a new contract, and will look for a sizable raise over his current $2.625 MM. There is perhaps still untapped offensive potential left in Zibanejad’s game, but will he display it in these playoffs? He has already potted 4 points in 6 games in the team’s successful series against Montreal, including an overtime winner.
“Completely Disappointed” Blackhawks Clean Out Lockers
Hands up if you predicted the Chicago Blackhawks would be involved in a sweep during the post-season. Now, keep your hand up if you thought it would be them getting swept.
The Blackhawks cleaned out their lockers on Saturday morning after a disappointing end to a promising season. After a 109-point season, the first-seed Blackhawks scored just three goals in four games against the eighth-seed Nashville Predators.
Usually when teams are eliminated, we find out the injuries that key players were dealing with; famously, Patrice Bergeron played in the 2013 Stanley Cup Finals (vs the Blackhawks) with a separated shoulder, cartilage tear in his ribs, and a punctured lung. However, there have been no notable injuries revealed today. Per Chris Hine of the Chicago Tribune, coach Joel Quenneville said that a few “key guys” were dealing with minor injuries, including Artem Anisimov, who was battling limited mobility. At this point, no players will require off-season surgery, according to Mark Lazerus of the Sun-Times.
General Manager Stan Bowman called the early end to his club’s season a “complete failure” compared to their expectations. The sweep “completely overshadowed” the 50-win season; Bowman promised changes would be coming, but did say that Quenneville will be back as head coach, according to Lazerus. However, Hine reports that Quenneville doesn’t foresee any changes to his coaching staff. Bowman promised that he and Quenneville “are going to work together to make sure this never happens again.”
Roster-wise, the Blackhawks have a few notable players up for new contracts: Richard Panik, Michal Kempny, and Scott Darling are all pending free agents. Bowman refused to comment on their statuses while also not commenting on the possibility of any roster moves involving “core” players. Realistically, Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Artemi Panarin, Duncan Keith, and Brent Seabrook are all un-tradable, either due to their importance to the club or the size of their contracts, or both. The one interesting name could be Corey Crawford; while the sweep is not his fault (the Blackhawks scored just three goals in four games), Bowman played coy when asked whether Crawford would be the starting goaltender next season. Per Hine, Bowman replied, “I’m not going to speculate on anything—who’s going to be here, who’s not going to be here.”
With the expansion draft upcoming and a few teams looking to move goaltenders, it could be difficult to find a taker for Crawford’s $6MM salary, especially at the likely asking price in a trade. Making that move would clear some significant cap space and allow them to keep Darling, who appears to be ready to take on a starting job. It would be the blockbuster of the summer. But as Bowman told Scott Powers of The Athletic, “We didn’t score any goals. It’s hard to win games when you get shutout.”
No matter what happens, it will be a long summer for a team that was expecting a long spring.
Roster Notes: Haula, Lazar, Oduya
Lineup changes have arrived for the Flames according to Kristen Odland, as the team will attempt to ward off elimination. Matt Stajan and Lance Bouma have both been told to take the night off, as Curtis Lazar and Freddie Hamilton find their way back to the ice. Hamilton had 2 goals and 0 assists in his 26 regular season games, and Lazar had 1 goal and 3 assists in his 37 games played. Neither is obviously expected to provide stellar offense, but instead to spark energy and infuse youth into a lineup which looked gassed in their Game 3 three-goal lead implosion. Lazar had been held pointless in 6 games while dressed for the Senators in the playoffs two seasons ago, though he was fantastic for the Oil Kings in their Memorial Cup run the year prior. This will be Hamilton’s first playoff experience.
- Blackhawks’ Johnny Oduya has been yanked from the lineup by coach Joel Quenneville for a potentially deciding Game 4. Michal Kempny is expected to take his place. The 26 year-old Czech defenseman had a phenomenally underappreciated season, posting an absurd 56.1% Corsi For. The left-handed shooting defenseman has never played in a playoff game. He had gone unsigned until May of last year, when he was acquired by the organization for depth. He ended up playing 50 games for the Hawks, despite marginal offensive totals. Oduya’s veteran status makes this a surprising move, although his lack of speed and age were starting to show in a series where the Predators’ forecheck was relentless.
- Erik Haula will not play for the Minnesota Wild tonight in their game against the Blues. Haula was held pointless and registered a -2 through 3 games. Coach Bruce Boudreau did not confirm who would take his spot, as he had been playing on the top unit with Mikko Koivu. This is a surprising move despite his struggles in the series, as the forward had been producing at a decent clip before running into the red-hot Jake Allen. There has been no word as to who will replace his position on the left wing.
James Neal, Consistency & Free Agency
If you were to try and name the six players who have scored at least 20 goals in nine consecutive seasons, you may get the first five with ease. Alex Ovechkin, Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Phil Kessel and Jeff Carter have all been considered superstars in the league, are perennial all-star candidates and are on the front of the proverbial cereal box in each of their respective NHL cities. The last one, James Neal, doesn’t have that same type of reputation, but perhaps he should. Neal has never been asked to play for Canada at the Olympics, nor was he a part of the World Cup team that won gold this fall. That hasn’t stopped him from being one of the most consistent goal scorers in the NHL for nearly a decade. 
Starting in 2008-09 as a 21-year old rookie, Neal would score 24 goals for the Dallas Stars and start his improbable streak. Since then he’s scored 215 more regular season goals, including 40 in 2011-12 alongside Evgeni Malkin and stepping up in the absence of an injured Sidney Crosby. That remains his best output, but at 29 he’s still as reliable as ever for the Nashville Predators, and is in the playoffs for the seventh straight season. He hasn’t registered a goal yet in the series against the Chicago Blackhawks, but it’s only a matter of time.
In the middle of the 2012 season, just before the trade deadline, Neal signed a six-year extension with the Penguins that bought out three UFA years and paid him a reasonable $5MM per season. That deal will expire after next season, and Neal is in line for another substantial contract. In fact, Kessel is an interesting comparison for Neal, as the Predators’ winger actually has a better goals-per-game rate than the Pittsburgh sniper, and is just a month older than him. Kessel of course started his career at a younger age, and signed an eight-year, $64MM extension with the Maple Leafs in 2013 that was seen as an albatross just two years later. The Penguins certainly aren’t complaining, but would the Predators if they had to hand out a similar annual value?
Kessel provides more offense on a whole, but Neal’s contributions at both ends of the rink shouldn’t be overlooked. He’s a much better possession player than Kessel in the defensive zone, and provides a more physical game. While $8MM per season does seem a bit out of reach, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him approach $7MM with another good offensive season. That might sound absurd to many, but his 0.71 points-per-game rate over the past nine years puts him right around players like Bobby Ryan, T.J. Oshie, and Jakub Voracek, two of which already make more than that—Ryan makes $7.25MM and Voracek makes $8.25MM—and another who will ride a 30-goal season this year into a contract that approaches it.
For Predators fans, this all likely comes as no surprise, as Neal has been a huge part of that team for several years. But for many fans of the NHL, they might not realize just how effective Neal has been now for nearly a decade in the NHL. That consistency will get paid off next summer, if the Predators don’t decide to extend him before then. For now, he’ll look to help them slay the Blackhawks and move to the second round before focusing on anything else.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Evening Snapshots: Hartman, Kase, Bonino, Werenski
To the surprise of many, Chicago Blackhawks forward Ryan Hartman will not face any supplemental punishment from the NHL after receiving a game misconduct in Game Two of the ‘Hawk’s first-round series against the Nashville Predators. Hartman was tossed near the end of the game on Saturday night after checking Predators winger Craig Smith, a fully legal hit, but then then appearing to punch or cross-check Smith in the face while he was down, which is obviously not so legal.
Hartman’s motives were clear: the Blackhawks were down 5-0 with just over a minute to go and about to fall into an 0-2 hole as the top seed in the Western Conference. Hartman was frustrated with the circumstances, as his teammates surely were as well, but Hartman’s actions were an unacceptable way of exercising that frustration. However, NHL Player Safety deemed that it was not bad enough to warrant a fine or suspension and Hartman will be back in the Chicago lineup tomorrow for Game Three as the Blackhawks grasp for some semblance of hope against a suddenly dominant Nashville squad.
- Ondrej Kase will also be one the ice tomorrow for some Western Conference playoff action, or at least for morning skate. The Anaheim Ducks announced that they had recalled the young forward from the AHL’s San Diego Gulls and that he will join the team ahead of their Game Three contest in Calgary. The Czech left winger skated in 53 games with the Ducks in 2016-17 and recorded five goals and ten assists. There is no word yet on whether or not Kase’s recall was the result of any injury concerns among the Anaheim forwards or if they simply wanted to add another depth option up front, seeing as Jared Boll was the only extra forward for the first two games of the season.
- Both Nick Bonino and Zach Werenski avoided potentially serious injuries Sunday night when the Pittsburgh Penguins and Columbus Blue Jackets squared off in Game Three. Both players took pucks to the face early on in the game, but no long-term harm appears to have occurred. Bonino was struck right in the jaw and immediately dropped his stick and gloves and skated to the bench and down the tunnel. The initial thought was a broken jaw, but Bonino returned to the ice not much later with a jaw guard as the only notable change to his appearance. Werenski was not as lucky; the young defenseman took his shot square in the face and dropped to the ice for nearly 30 seconds (while the Penguins scored a goal). When Werenski finally got up and skated away, he left a trail of blood in his wake. Werenski returned later in the game with stitches on his face where a large cut once was and wore a full cage for the remainder of the game. Werenski also saw a major drop-off in ice time for the rest of the game and did not take a single shift in overtime, presumably due to the swelling around his eye. The Penguins went on to win 5-4 in OT.
Predator Power: The Potential Upset That Should Shock No One
Just yesterday, I wrote an article describing the ability of the Wild to come back in their series down 0-2. No one should doubt that the Blackhawks are entirely capable of achieving the same against the Predators. The question is whether they will.
The Predators were perhaps the most overlooked team this post-season, with nearly all analysts picking the Blackhawks to take the series rather easily. This is particularly odd because offensively, the teams were practically indistinguishable (at 2.43 GF60 and 2.42 GF60 respectively). At 5 on 5, the Predators only scored 5 less goals all season long. Down the home stretch of the season, the Predators won their last 4 while the Blackhawks went winless. Although both teams have had an increase in overall offense compared to last season, Nashville had less of a drastic up-hike, suggesting less deviation from the expected output. The Predators are also far less top heavy than the Hawks – their scoring is more evenly stretched out across their lineup and not concentrated around four particular players. The Hawks’ fourth line is noteworthy in how uninspiring it is – Jordin Tootoo and John Hayden usually average 8 and 11 minutes a piece. Finally, Pekka Rinne had a historically bad season by his standards in 2015-16 (in which the Predators took the Western Conference champs to a Game 7) – but he has returned to form in a big way this season, with a respectable (if unremarkable) .918 save percentage.
Then there’s the defense – the Blackhawks have shown signs of weakness. Duncan Keith had a solid showing, but not his Norris standard. His Corsi For was his worst since his rookie season at 50.7% – he has trended around 54%. Niklas Hjalmarsson and Brent Seabrook have also had down seasons, Seabrook at 50%, and Hjalmarsson at 45%. After these three defenders there is a massive gap in talent. Part of the reason that these top three are having a difficult time is because they have had to log massive amounts of minutes against top players. Both Johnny Oduya and Brian Campbell have struggled to log the minutes of years past, and both have faced lower quality of competition. Each has averaged around 18 minutes of ice and it doesn’t seem like Joel Quenneville is particularly confident in putting them out there in all situations these playoffs. Trevor van Reimsdyk has performed admirably in his role, but has yet to be a positive player in a post-season year. Even against Keith, the speed of the Predators’ forwards has created fits and frantic backpedaling. With how dominant Ryan Ellis, Roman Josi and crew have looked, it is more than fair to draw comparisons.
Ultimately, the Blackhawks need to score in order to advance. Peter Laviolette has the Predators rolling as a fine-tuned forecheck machine, and Chicago seems to have been shell-shocked. Their zone time in the most recent game was frankly horrible. The 5-0 obliteration was a natural continuation of the frustrated offense the Hawks experienced in the first game, and it seems apparent that whatever game-planning occurred between the two matches fell far short of the mark. Shots were constantly blocked by the Preds and the ones that got through were not dangerous. The amount of hype that preceded Chicago headed into these playoffs was largely unwarranted – they didn’t dominate any advanced stat and only won the division by a slight margin, while their top players looked far less dynamic than the previous year. But let us not discount the effort and depth of the Predators. On paper, this isn’t a roster that is star-studded or wonderfully exciting, but they have been constructed well for playoff hockey and now have the experience to close a series. Their third line has performed well above expectations and their top guns are firing away. Underestimating this squad would be a deadly error for any team, no matter how many cups they’ve won in years past.
Morning Notes: Flames Burn Out, Toronto’s Unlikely Hero, Looking Ahead
Saturday April 15th was a riveting evening of hockey for any fan of the sport. The Blackhawks were dominated 5-0 by the Predators in Game 2, but the other three games were all nail-biters. The Flames looked to take the lead after climbing out of a 2 goal deficit in the 2nd period, but the call on the ice of goalie interference against John Gibson kept the game tied. The Ducks would go on to get a bizarre ricochet goal from the stick of Ryan Getzlaf with just 4:46 remaining in regulation to secure an ugly win, and go up 2-0 in the series.
- The Leafs’ Kasperi Kapanen has not been in the spotlight – the likes of Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and Auston Matthews have been so phenomenal that he is easily forgotten in the mix. The promising young crafty forward was the centerpiece of the Phil Kessel deal, which until now, had undoubtedly looked to favor the Penguins. Serving 4th-line duty, the forward had only scored one goal in his 8 games up with big squad this season. In the second overtime of Saturday’s Game 2 versus the Capitals, the forward crept in to the back post as Brian Boyle used his lanky frame to fool the netminder into sealing the near post in anticipation. The result was a gorgeous finish to a game where an unlikely hero was desperately needed. If the forward can build on this huge goal, perhaps he can become an X-factor in a series where they are the underdogs. He seems to be confident in the team’s chances.
- The Senators would not go down quietly. Down 2 goals through 40 minutes, the squad rallied to tie the game with tallies from Chris Wideman and Derick Brassard. As mentioned in an earlier post, Chara’s late regulation delay-of-game penalty proved quite costly, as the Senators capitalized on the powerplay’s momentum and ended the overtime quickly. Dion Phaneuf hammered one home after the team had hit two posts previously in quick succession. The series has been incredibly tight, but surely Bruins fans will lament the lost opportunity, especially in light of their badly bruised defensive squad.
- Four games will take place this Sunday. The Wild will try to avoid going down 3-0 in hostile territory, the Blue Jackets will hope to dodge a similar fate with cannons firing, and the Sharks and Rangers look to go up at home after splitting the first two on the road.
Playoff Notes: Blackhawks-Predators, Matthews, McDavid
Game one of the playoff series between Nashville and Chicago certainly didn’t play out how many expected. Not only did the Predators steal a game in Chicago, they managed to shut out one of the most potent offenses. The Chicago Tribune’s Steve Rosenbloom “dares” the Predators to try and play a similar game against the Blackhawks in Game two. Rosenbloom writes that the Preds played “old-time” hockey which saw a vintage style of play from the 90’s: get a goal and sit on the lead. Rosenbloom goes on, adding that the Hawks didn’t take advantage of several gifts from Nashville while also giving Preds netminder Pekka Rinne too easy of a job Thursday evening.
- Meanwhile, the Tennessean’s Adam Vingan writes that while it shocked many, those in the Nashville locker room never doubted for a second that they could compete with their Central division rival. Vingan writes that the season series was much closer than people think, and that for the Preds to head home up 2-0, Rinne must be “sensational” like he was in the first game while Nashville must sustain the aggressiveness that made them a higher scoring team in the regular season. Nashville, Vingan adds, must not allow Chicago to dominate play as they did in the final two periods.
- Yahoo’s Greg Wyshynski reports that the league is monitoring the ratings for the games involving young superstars Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews. NBC Sports Executive Producer Sam Flood believes that a long playoff run would only make McDavid and Matthews more likely to be on NBC next season. Flood added that NBC responded to the hype of both players, flexing in games with the young stars to guarantee them air time. The next three games for both players’ teams will be featured on the NBC Sports Network, instead of the USA network. Wyshynski advises hockey fans eager to see more of McDavid and Matthews should tune in to those games.
Injury Updates: Zaitsev, Carlson, Jarnkrok
News and notes from around the NHL this evening:
- The Toronto Maple Leafs will be without rookie defenseman Nikita Zaitsev tonight in Game 1 against the Washington Capitals, reports Rogers Sportsnet. Zaitsev suffered an upper body injury in the Maple Leafs’ final regular season game on Sunday when he was hit into the boards by Columbus Blue Jackets captain Nick Foligno. The Maple Leafs will miss Zaitsev’s presence on the blue line as Zaitsev was second in team ice time behind Morgan Rielly.
- Staying with the Capitals vs. Maple Leafs series, Washington Capitals defenseman John Carlson will return tonight after missing the Capitals’ last four games. Carlson missed those games with a lower body injury, but told reporters yesterday that he “felt good.” The Capitals will breathe a sigh of relief when Carlson returns as he is the team’s leader in average time on ice. Losing a first-pair defenseman ripples throughout the lineup no matter how much depth a team has.
- The Nashville Predators should have center Calle Jarnkrok tonight, reports Adam Vingan of the Tennessean. Jarnkrok missed the Predators’ final game against the Winnipeg Jets with a lower body injury. Nashville takes on the Chicago Blackhawks in their first-round playoff matchup, and they will need all the center depth they can muster against the top team in the Western Conference.
Snapshots: Babcock, Fehr, Diaby
As always with Alex Prewitt of Sports Illustrated, his latest piece is an outstanding example of storytelling and should be required reading for most hockey fans. In it, he chronicles the ’93-94 Lethbridge University championship hockey season and their young head coach Mike Babcock. Even now, after so many years in the NHL and victories everywhere he goes, Babcock maintains his proudest moment as a coach was turning the Pronghorns into a championship squad.
Babcock now helms a Toronto Maple Leafs team as they head back into the playoffs for the first time in a non-lockout shortened season since 2003-04. His squad, who finished dead last in 2015-16, would love to remind Babcock a little more of the Cinderella-like run the Pronghorns took to the number one spot. They’ll take on the powerhouse Washington Capitals tonight.
- Those Maple Leafs did get some good news on the injury front today, as Eric Fehr rejoined the team at practice. The forward was acquired by the Leafs at the trade deadline from the Pittsburgh Penguins, but broke his hand blocking a shot in his first game for the squad. While he won’t figure into the lineup right away, he’s getting close according to Kristen Shilton of TSN, who Babcock told “[the medical staff] let him out of jail today. Looks like the science project’s almost over.” Fehr could provide the Maple Leafs with some size for the fourth line should they feel like Kasperi Kapanen isn’t cutting it.
- James Mirtle of The Athletic reports that the Nashville Predators have placed Jonathan-Ismael Diaby on unconditional waivers. This likely means that his release will soon follow, as the team clears contract spots for next year. Though the Predators are only at 46 currently, they have recently promised one of those spots to Tyler Moy, and have four draft picks that will become free agents if not signed by June 1st. Diaby was a third-round pick in 2013, but hasn’t quite turned out the way they’d hoped when they saw his 6’5″ frame. He’ll become a free agent should the team release him after clearing.