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Free Agency

Can The Pittsburgh Penguins Actually Sign Tomas Tatar?

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There aren’t many impact unsigned free agents remaining at this point in the offseason, but one name of note is forward Tomas Tatar. Tatar has been linked to several teams, including the Buffalo Sabres as an inexpensive replacement for the injured Jack Quinn. One team that popped up in the rumor mill last week was the Pittsburgh Penguins. Rob Rossi of The Athletic wrote that the Penguins were keenly interested but it all came down to whether Tatar would get a guaranteed contract offer elsewhere as the Penguins appeared to be offering a PTO for training camp in Pittsburgh with the expectation of a contract after. But can the Penguins realistically fit in another contract for a player coming off a season in which he scored 20 goals and 28 assists in 82 games?

In most off-seasons, the answer to that question would be an emphatic no. But the summer of 2023 has been unlike any other offseason. Players like Blake Wheeler have signed for less than $1MM annually. Matt Duchene took a one-year contract for $3MM despite being a year removed from topping 80 points, and Tatar remains unsigned despite providing consistent secondary scoring.

But all of this doesn’t necessarily mean the answer is a resounding yes, the Penguins would need to do some cap gymnastics to fit Tatar into the sliver of room they have under the salary cap ceiling. Currently, the Penguins have just north of $220K, which is obviously well below the NHL minimum.

Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas has said previously that he would use waivers as a means of becoming cap compliant, and the Penguins have plenty of players who could be placed on waivers to open up room for Tatar. Alexander Nylander and Rem Pitlick are two players that could be exposed and sent to the AHL to open up the room, but would that be enough to sign Tatar? The answer is a giant unknown at this time, but as we inch closer to training camp it becomes more and more possible.

Dan Kingerski of Pittsburgh Hockey Now explored another idea in an article as he wondered if a potential Jeff Carter trade would be possible. The 38-year-old London, Ontario native is in the final year of his contract with a cap hit of $3.125MM and is coming off a season in which he scored just 13 goals and 16 assists in 79 games and looked lost at times both offensively and defensively. Kingerski provides options in the article, the most interesting of which would have the Penguins retain 50% of Carter’s contract and staple a second-round pick to him to facilitate a move. While this scenario seems possible, the biggest caveat to a potential deal would be Carter’s full no-movement clause. Given all these moving parts, it seems unlikely any contending team would have room to take on even half of Carter’s cap hit and even less likely that Carter would waive his no-move to make it happen. Kyle Dubas has worked one miracle this summer in moving out Jeff Petry and Mikael Granlund for Erik Karlsson, but can he make another one happen?

Much like the Karlsson situation it feels like the longer this drags out the likelier it becomes the player ends up with the Penguins. But to make it happen Tatar is going to have to take a massive pay cut and perhaps accept just a one-year contract. A far cry from the $3.3MM annually that Daily Faceoff projected he would get on a three-year deal when free agency opened.

Free Agent Profile: Tyler Motte

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For the second year in a row, Tyler Motte finds himself unsigned more than a month into unrestricted free agency.  This is the case despite the fact that he fills a role that many contending teams often covet – someone who can play defensive minutes, kill penalties, and play with an edge (without getting into much penalty trouble) while chipping in a bit offensively.

Last summer, despite playing a regular role for the Rangers in the playoffs, it took until just before training camp for the 28-year-old to catch on somewhere when he inked a one-year, $1.35MM deal with Ottawa in mid-September.  The contract garnered him a small raise compared to his previous AAV.

Unfortunately for both Motte and the Senators, things didn’t go too well.  Missing 15 games with a broken finger midseason didn’t help but when he was in the lineup, he wasn’t able to bring each of the elements he typically does to the table.  Specifically, the offense wasn’t there as he managed just three goals in 38 games as part of a bottom-six group that underachieved.

That changed when the Rangers reacquired him prior to the deadline.  Already familiar with the way they play, Motte was able to get some of his scoring touch back, chipping in with five goals and five assists in 24 games down the stretch despite logging just 11 minutes a game.  He wasn’t able to hit the scoresheet in the playoffs but still filled that checking role.

At this point in his career, Motte is a well-known commodity; it isn’t as if there is much left in the way of hidden upside.  But what he provides is something that should result in interest from teams at some point over the coming weeks.

Stats

2022-23: 62 GP, 8-11-19, +3 rating, 6 PIMS, 109 shots, 118 hits, 45.7% CF, 12:34 ATOI
Career: 331 GP, 43-38-81, -19 rating, 82 PIMS, 512 shots, 773 hits, 44.0% CF, 12:52 ATOI

Potential Suitors

For a player like Motte, there are two different types of teams that make sense.  The first is a squad with playoff hopes that is looking to shore up their fourth line or 13th forward spot, aiming to find a small improvement within the margins.  The other is a team that wants one of their younger players to spend more time in the minors and wants that extra bit of depth to act as a buffer.

In the East, Toronto has looked to add some grit this offseason and Motte would continue down that path.  It would need to be a contract for the minimum to work but he’d fill the void that was opened up by them not re-signing Zach Aston-Reese.  His old team in New York could also use him back but with them needing as much cap space as possible to re-sign RFA Alexis Lafreniere, it would need to be a minimum-salary agreement as well.  Boston has rebuilt a good chunk of their bottom six and could stand to add more depth although they’re at a spot where they need to focus on trying to open up some flexibility first.  He’d also fit in on Washington’s fourth line but, you guessed it, they will be restricted to basically the minimum $775K offer as well.

Out West, Motte would give a boost to Nashville’s fourth line and they have enough cap space remaining that they won’t be restricted to just a minimum-salary offer.  Edmonton is expected to try to bring in some low-cost upgrades although they, too, will be restricted to offers for the minimum.  Colorado has a bit more wiggle room to work with from Gabriel Landeskog’s LTIR placement and after their fourth line struggled throughout last season, Motte would give them some reliability on that front.

Projected Contract

At this point of the summer, the bulk of the contracts handed out are going to be at or very close to the league minimum.  Motte hasn’t been in that situation the last few years and it wouldn’t be surprising if he’s holding out hope that a seven-figure deal could still be out there.  Assuming that doesn’t materialize within the next few weeks, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Motte sign for $775K or close to it.  If that happens, whoever gets him will be getting a small bargain.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Noah Gregor

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We’re at the point of free agency where the word bargain starts to come into play a little more.  The top-dollar deals aren’t there now but low-cost depth pieces are still available.  Playoff-bound teams will have their eye on veterans to fill specific roles.  But what about teams that are rebuilding?  Is there much left for them on the open market?

Noah Gregor is the type of player that could catch the eye of some of those teams.  Just 25, the winger has shown some physicality early in his career that would play well in the bottom six with enough offense to potentially make him an intriguing addition for someone.

Gregor is coming off his only full NHL season, one that saw him set a career-high in goals with ten despite missing 25 games.  The year before that, he had 23 points despite clearing waivers and spending seven weeks on an AHL assignment.  San Jose opted to try someone else in that role back in June, declining to tender him a qualifying offer of just under $1MM that would have also given him salary arbitration rights.

The consistency hasn’t always been there but he’s young enough that there is still room for improvement.  If that improvement happens, Gregor could be a quality under-the-radar pickup for someone in the coming weeks.  With two years of club control through restricted free agency, it could be more than a one-year pickup for whoever lands him.

Stats

2022-23: 57 GP, 10-7-17, -9 rating, 32 PIMS, 119 shots, 97 hits, 44.2% CF, 12:58 ATOI
Career: 178 GP, 25-26-51, -51 rating, 71 PIMS, 368 shots, 312 hits, 44.6% CF, 13:00 ATOI

Potential Suitors

From an NHL perspective, the teams that make the most sense for Gregor are ones that are rebuilding or are lacking some depth on the wing.  But if a team is eyeing Gregor as someone to try to sneak through waivers, just about anyone is a viable option.  For the purpose of this exercise, we’ll focus on the potential NHL openings.

In the East, Buffalo has a short-term roster opening with Jack Quinn out for the first few months due to a torn Achilles tendon.  They could fill that spot internally with someone like Lukas Rousek or they could turn to a player like Gregor that might be a better fit style-wise in a lower role on the depth chart.  Montreal moved out two wingers today in their portion of the Erik Karlsson trade and could view Gregor as a possible replacement for one of them to replenish some of that forward depth.  Washington has a short-term opening with Max Pacioretty likely out to start next season and Gregor could be a better fit for them over Joe Snively who wasn’t quite as impactful in his NHL duty last season compared to 2021-22.

Out West, Isac Lundestrom’s Achilles injury has opened up a spot up front with Gregor being a young enough fit to potentially be around beyond a single season.  Nashville’s current depth chart has some forwards that are relatively safe bets to get through waivers so adding Gregor could give them a small boost on the fourth line and bolster their depth.  If Minnesota is able to afford an extra forward (they need to re-sign Calen Addison first), Gregor would fit in a bottom six group that plays with a bit of an edge.

Projected Contract

Gregor is almost certain to be looking at a contract that is going to carry an NHL salary of $775K, the league minimum.  Depending on how long it takes for him to sign, there might even be a relatively pricey two-way portion.  But in terms of what’s still out there, there aren’t many players left with potentially a little more upside while being controllable for a couple more years.  That makes Gregor one of the more intriguing under-the-radar options left on the open market.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Adam Erne

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Since being drafted 33rd overall in the 2013 NHL, forward Adam Erne has been following General Manager Steve Yzerman around for his entire career. Yzerman was General Manager that originally drafted Erne with the Tampa Bay Lightning, and after Yzerman made his return to the Detroit Red Wings, one of his first moves was to acquire Erne for a fourth-round selection in the 2020 NHL Draft.

While playing for the Quebec Remparts of the QMJHL, Erne seemed to be one of the more promising power forwards in his class. Playing his last year in juniors during the 2015-16 season, Erne scored 41 goals and 45 assists in 60 games, also racking up 102 PIMS in total. Unfortunately for the Lightning and the Red Wings, those talents have yet to translate to the NHL, and likely never will given Erne’s career track record.

If it had not been for injuries, Erne likely would have recorded career totals in all facets of the game, but going on the injured reserve seven times during four seasons with Detroit, Erne could never keep up any momentum. This past year was so poor that the Red Wings decided to place Erne on waivers in February, and he spent the next month in the AHL.

Nevertheless, being able to put up 20 points in a year will always have value in the NHL, and Erne might benefit from playing on the fourth line of a competitive team. He will surely garner less than his $2.1MM salary over the last two years, making him an affordable option for all 32 teams in the NHL.

Stats

2022-23: 61 GP, 8-10-18, -12 rating, 21 PIMS, 55 shots, 37.5% CF, 13:23 ATOI
Career: 355 GP, 40-49-89, -59 rating, 171 PIMS, 436 shots, 45.9% CF, 12:21 ATOI

Potential Suitors

For any team to be taking a shot at Erne at this point in his career, the team must be confident that he is an immediate improvement to their bottom six forward core. Taking that into account, it would be reasonable to assume that the Colorado Avalanche, Lightning, and Washington Capitals could all be possible fits for Erne’s services.

As of right now, the Avalanche are projected to have 12 forwards in their opening night lineup, with both Ben Meyers and Fredrik Olofsson making up the bottom tier of their forward group. To say the least, given his track record, Erne would almost certainly be a much stronger producer for the Avalanche than either Meyers or Olofsson on the wing. Neither forward has sniffed 20 points up to this point in their careers, but to their credit, they have both played far fewer years than Erne. The only drawback to Erne joining the Avalanche is the fact that he does not profile as a player being able to fit into Colorado’s high-speed offensive approach.

Similarly to Colorado, a reunion with Tampa Bay makes a lot of sense for both parties. Logan Brown and Alex Barre-Boulet currently project as the bottom forwards in the Lightning’s lineup, and Erne would give the team an improvement in that area. Brown has yet to live up to his draft status as an 11th overall pick, and although being one of the best players in the AHL over the last several years, Barre-Boulet has not produced to the same level in the NHL.

Not the same degree as Colorado or Tampa Bay, Erne could be an interesting fit into the Capitals’ bottom six. Hopefully, Max Pacioretty will make his debut with the club at some point this season, giving the team some added forward depth. Before Pacioretty returns, Washington certainly has the capability to improve upon forward Joe Snively at the bottom of their lineup, and Erne would do just that. Snively has yet to score over seven points in the last two seasons while averaging approximately the same amount of ice time as Erne.

Projected Contract

If any team does commit to a full NHL contract for Erne, it will almost certainly be a one-year, $775k agreement. Due to his relatively low production, as well as his injury history over the last several seasons, unfortunately, Erne has lost all hope of any team being willing to go beyond that number. However, at this point in the offseason, it would be more than rare to see a team give a guaranteed contract to a player of his caliber. Erne is most likely headed for a professional tryout agreement in September, where he will have the responsibility of earning his roster spot during training camp.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Latest On Ethan Bear

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It has been an interesting few months for unrestricted free agent defenseman Ethan Bear.  After finishing out his season with Vancouver, he agreed to play for Canada at the Worlds despite not having a deal in place for 2023-24, a move that carried some risk.  While at that tournament, he re-aggravated an existing shoulder injury, resulting in him undergoing surgery.  That caused the Canucks to lower their offer to him and when a deal wasn’t agreed upon, they non-tendered him after the draft.

Since then, things have been quiet on his front with Bear not being linked to any teams through the first month of free agency.  Although he acknowledged to Postmedia’s Patrick Johnston that recovery is going well (perhaps even slightly ahead of schedule), the 26-year-old still isn’t going to be ready to play until sometime in December.  That certainly seems to have presented some challenges for him when it comes to finding a team to sign with.

With so many teams capped out, that will stand to limit the potential suitors Bear has right now.  While he’d be LTIR-eligible to start the season, if a signing team doesn’t have the cap room to carry him on the active roster now, they’d be in a tough spot where they’d need to open up room midseason to activate Bear.  The odd team has a willingness to do a move like this where they deal with the potential ramifications later but the role he’s likely to fill isn’t one where such a move could be justifiable.

Meanwhile, by the time he’s ready to return, there’s no guarantee that the teams that might have a spot for him now will still have one in December.  Others could be created by injuries but generally speaking, players unsigned that late into the year are settling for league minimum contracts (although Patrick Kane will almost certainly buck that trend at some point in 2023-24).

Bear indicated that a few teams have made inquiries thus far but clearly, an offer to his liking has yet to materialize.  He specifically stated a preference to return to Vancouver but was told by GM Patrik Allvin that they would need to clear up cap space for that to happen, a scenario that they are hardly alone in.  He fared relatively well with the Canucks after being acquired early last season, picking up 16 points in 61 games while averaging 18:32 per contest.

When healthy, Bear has shown over his five-year career that he is certainly an NHL-caliber defenseman, and as a right-shot player, he should be in more demand than it appears he has been thus far.  But his injury situation adds a wrinkle to those discussions and as a result, it looks like he’ll be on the open market for at least a little while longer even though his recovery might even be ahead of schedule.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Jaroslav Halak

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Jaroslav Halak has been on quite the journey since he led the Montreal Canadiens to back-to-back playoff upsets of the President’s Trophy winning Washington Capitals and defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins back in 2010. Halak was so effective in that run to the Conference Finals that many Canadiens fans wanted the team to keep him and trade his partner, Carey Price. Montreal opted to keep Price and shipped Halak to the St. Louis Blues for a package that included Lars Eller.

The early returns in St. Louis were good as Halak was solid in his first season with the Blues and even better in year two when he and Brian Elliott won the William M. Jennings Trophy for the fewest goals against in the league. That year Halak also garnered Vezina Trophy votes and ultimately finished sixth in voting as he sported a stellar .926 save percentage and a 1.97 goals-against average.

Eventually, the shine wore off in St. Louis and Halak lost the net to Elliot and was traded to the Washington Capitals midway through the 2013-14 campaign. He played well for the Capitals in limited action but the team ultimately missed the playoffs.

That summer, the Bratislava, Czechoslovakia native signed a four-year deal with the New York Islanders with an annual cap hit of $4.5M. The Islanders received excellent goaltending from Halak in his first season with the team as he went 38-17-4 with a .914 save percentage and a 2.43 goals-against average. In fact, through his first three years on Long Island Halak posted a save percentage above .910 every year, and kept his quality starts percentage over 50%, which means his save percentage was above the average more often than not.

It was in the final year of his contract with the Islanders that the cracks started to show in Halak’s game as he struggled in 2017-18 and posted the worst numbers of his career up to that point with a .908 save percentage and a 3.19 goals-against average.

Understanding that his days as a starter were likely ending, Halak signed a two-year deal with the Boston Bruins to back-up Tuukka Rask. Halak ended up playing in almost half of Boston’s games that year and outplayed Rask for large portions of the season in what was one of the best years of Halak’s career as he went 22-11-4 with a save percentage of .922 and a goals-against average of 2.34. Halak would win another Jennings Trophy the following year posting a .919 save percentage in what was another fantastic campaign for the netminder. That season in Boston, the 2019-20 campaign is the last time that Halak has posted a save percentage over .910.

Since the 2019-20 season, Halak hasn’t been able to be counted on to provide consistent play. Halak hasn’t started more than 25 games in the past three seasons, and although that isn’t entirely his fault thanks to injuries and a pandemic, he has been a tick below average when he has played.

At 38-years-old Halak and 17 seasons into his career, Halak has a lot of miles on his body, but he did indicate a month ago that he would like to continue playing. Halak reportedly talked about an extension with the New York Rangers prior to free agency, but ultimately the Rangers decided to sign Jonathan Quick to be their backup, which is a definite downgrade from Halak at this point. Halak needs just five wins to reach 300 and given his track record he should be presented soon with an opportunity to be a backup next season.

Stats

2022-23: 25 GP, 10-9-5, 2.72 GAA, .903 SV%, 1 SO
Career: 581 GP, 295-189-69, 2.50 GAA, .915 SV%, 53 SO 

Potential Suitors

At Halak’s age he probably isn’t looking to get pummeled with fifty shots every night which means we can likely filter out any rebuilding teams. At first glance, the New Jersey Devils and St. Louis Blues are two teams who have a need for depth in net.

The Devils are a team that feels like they are on the cusp of building something great, their defense is mobile and quick, they can push the pace and defend. Their forward group is skilled, fast, and comes at you in waves. But goaltending is their Achilles heel. The Devils have reportedly shown interest in several goaltending options including Connor Hellebuyck and John Gibson, but both of those goaltenders would require large commitments that the Devils might not want to make. But the Devils do need some help in the crease as they will once again enter this season relying on the tandem of Vitek Vanecek and Akira Schmid. Both goaltenders are relatively inexperienced, and while they backed the Devils to the second round of the playoffs last season, they might need an extra set of hands to get the club there again. Neither Schmid, nor Vanecek have a history of playing at a high level in the NHL for an extended period, which means that even a league-average goaltender like Halak could give a big boost to the team’s depth chart and offer up a solution should either man falter.

For the St. Louis Blues, they’ve made some interesting moves over the past year but haven’t done much to address their goaltending. It’s fair to say that the Blues goaltending was porous last season. Jordan Binnington, now in the third year of a six-year $36MM contract, hasn’t been good in two seasons posting a 45-41-10 regular season record, with a 3.24 goals-against average and a .897 SV%. If you take a deep dive into his numbers the picture gets even worse, in the last two seasons Binnington has posted a minus-26.6 GSAA, meaning that he gave up almost 27 goals more than the average NHL goalie would on the same number of shots. Couple this with St. Louis deciding to run with rookie Joel Hofer as a backup and you have a potential recipe for disaster for the Blues. No disrespect to Hofer, who had a terrific year with the Springfield Thunderbirds last season in the AHL, but he is inexperienced and is no guarantee to step up should Binnington falter for a third year in a row. Adding a netminder like Halak might give the Blues a good safety net in case one of their two goaltenders were to struggle or get hurt. He wouldn’t cost anything in the way of assets and could give the Blues some peace of mind.

Projected Contract

A month ago, it seemed like a sure thing that Halak would get a one-year NHL deal for a bit over $1MM. Now a month into free agency, I’m not so sure. I think that barring an off-season training injury before training camps open, Halak will have to settle for a number three role on a team with good depth in net, or a PTO. The experienced veteran would provide a good fallback option in a pinch and can give guidance to younger goalies who might be ahead of him on the depth chart.

I’d be surprised at this point if Halak got over $1MM on his next contract, however, with that being said, injuries can create urgency quickly, especially in net. Halak could be the first netminder who gets a call from a team with thin goalie depth after they get stung by the injury bug. Even if this were to happen, Halak is like to end up with a six-figure deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Paul Stastny

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The height of free agency ended a little less than a month ago and once again veteran center Paul Stastny finds himself without an NHL contract heading into next season. Unlike, most younger players Stastny probably isn’t too concerned about financial security as he has made nearly $85MM during his career (CapFriendly). Stastny has also been here before, having waited until August 23rd to sign last summer with the Carolina Hurricanes. Stastny may find himself unsigned late in the offseason once again but given that he is just a year removed from a 45-point season, there is reason to believe he will find an NHL job next year.

Stastny began his career as a perennial 70-point player on a talented but inconsistent Colorado Avalanche team that could never seem to get over the hump. He remained an important top-six piece as his career progressed, but as injuries started to impact his body, he began to descend into a 50–60-point scorer. By the time he signed a four-year $28MM contract as a free agent with the St. Louis Blues in 2014, he had settled in as a 40–50-point contributor that could post solid faceoff results and contribute in other ways. Stastny put up 40 or more points in each of his three and a half seasons with the Blues and was dealt to the Winnipeg Jets at the trade deadline in 2018.

After a cup of coffee in Winnipeg, Stastny signed with the Vegas Golden Knights in the summer of 2018. He spent two years with the team and failed to meet the expectations that came with his three-year $19.5MM contract. Stastny put up 80 points in 121 games with Vegas, but his production didn’t live up to his $6.5MM cap hit and he was traded back to Winnipeg in the 2020 offseason.

Stastny remained a solid center option in his two seasons in Winnipeg and continued to be a consistent 40-point threat despite being in his mid-30’s. Last summer, Stastny was coming off the aforementioned 45-point season and seemed like a good bet to sign a decent one-year deal, but as the height of free agency came and went, Stastny was left without a dance partner and eventually signed a one-year deal with the Carolina Hurricanes for $1.5MM. The deal was good value, although probably a tad below expectations for Carolina as Stastny centered both the third and fourth line at different points during the season.

At the end of the season, the Hurricanes opted to let Stastny go and that’s where we find the 37-year-old today, unsigned and coming off a season in which he put up nine goals and 13 assists in 73 games while averaging a career-low 11:52 of ice-time per game.

Stastny has had a terrific career up to this point, but he is still chasing that elusive Stanley Cup. He seems to have a knack for leaving organizations just as they are on the cusp of winning Lord Stanley as evidenced by his former clubs Colorado, St. Louis, and Vegas all winning championships shortly after his departure.

Now, the Quebec City, Quebec native is in the twilight of his career and is likely looking to sign with a contender. He showed last year that he could be a solid contributor on the bottom two lines and probably has more to give. Teams aren’t going to be lining up like they once were for Stastny’s services, but with two months left until opening night, there is plenty of reason to be optimistic that he will find a landing spot before the first week in October.

Stats

2022-23: 73 GP, 9-13-22, +4 rating, 16 PIMS, 80 shots, 57.6% faceoffs, 60.9% CF, 11:52 ATOI
Career: 1145 GP, 293-529-822, +43 rating, 500 PIMS, 2326 shots, 54.2% faceoffs, 52.2% CF, 18:27 ATOI

Potential Suitors

It seems that teams are always looking for help at center, which makes Stastny’s status a bit surprising this late in the offseason. While he is hardly the only pivot that is unsigned, he is probably the best of the leftovers. For Stastny, if he does choose to continue his career, he will be looking for a situation where he is a good fit. He never quite found a groove in Carolina, and despite playing on an excellent team, he did seem frustrated at times. He also fell out of favor with the coaching staff for brief periods, evidenced by his benching when the team opted to use Derek Stepan in his spot.

Let’s start in the East. The Buffalo Sabres have several players that are over the age of 35 and while Stastny isn’t going to push the team into the next stratosphere, he could be a nice stopgap for the team as they wait for more of their young prospects to develop into everyday NHLers. The Sabres also need to navigate the injury to Jack Quinn, and while this version of Stastny is no replacement for the youngster, he could be a part of a solution until he returns. Stastny would add a lot of experience and leadership to the Sabres dressing room and could also provide the team with a center who can win most of the draws he takes and will generally help his team control the play when he is on the ice.

In the West, the Edmonton Oilers still need a solid fourth-line center. The club does currently have a few options that they can slot into the lineup in a pinch, but ideally, they would have a pivot that can bring similar skills to that of Stastny. The Oilers don’t need a player that will drive the offense, but they do need capable bottom six players who can play a responsible brand of hockey and dictate play when they are on the ice. Stastny fits the bill having won 57% of his faceoffs last season, and having terrific possession numbers as Carolina controlled the puck 60% of the time Stastny was on the ice. His offense dried up last season, but Edmonton doesn’t need an offensive juggernaut, they need smart bottom six players that can chip in on offense from time to time.

Projected Contract

Many of the remaining unrestricted free agents are likely going be forced to take contracts that are around the league minimum of $775K, however, I don’t believe that will be the fate for Stastny. As mentioned earlier, he waited until the end of August last year and still secured a seven-figure AAV on a one-year deal. This year is different for Stastny though as he is coming off his lowest offensive output in his 17-year career, so a contract approaching what he made last season might be off the table. I would venture a guess that Stastny will get a one-year deal in the range of $1MM to $1.25MM which could also include a small bonus. Several teams have utilized bonuses for players over 35 years of age signing one-year contracts and Stastny could be the next in line to receive it. Regardless of where he winds up, he will likely be able to give the team that acquires him good value on a short-term deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Martin Jones

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Martin Jones career arc as a professional hockey player has been interesting to follow. He emerged in 2013-14 with the Los Angeles Kings as a solid backup to star goaltender Jonathan Quick going 16-11-2 over two seasons with a .923 save percentage and a 1.99 goals-against average. He was then traded to the Boston Bruins in June 2015 as part of a package for Milan Lucic before then being shipped back West to the San Jose Sharks for a first-round pick.

It was in San Jose in 2015-16 that Jones established himself as a bonafide starting goaltender and led the Sharks to within two wins of the Stanley Cup. Jones was terrific through his first three seasons in San Jose compiling a record of 102-68-16 while consistently posting a save percentage around .915. He was also a workhorse during his first four seasons dressing in over 60 games each year. In July 2017, San Jose felt so confident that Jones was their goalie of the future that they locked him up to a lucrative six-year deal worth a total of $34.5MM

But the Sharks’ confidence in the North Vancouver, British Columbia native quickly waned as Jones posted three consecutive years with a save percentage below .900. Realizing that his play was dropping off, the Sharks bought Jones out of the final three years of his contract in July 2021, a move that left them with a cap hit of almost $2MM annually until 2026-27. After Jones was unceremoniously bought out of his contract, he signed a one-year $2MM deal with the Philadelphia Flyers and posted numbers that mirrored his final three seasons in San Jose going 12-18-3 with a .900 save percentage and a 3.42 goals-against.

Last summer, after all the initial excitement of free agency had cleared, Jones signed a one-year contract with the Seattle Kraken in a move that was largely without any fanfare. The deal seemed like a good match as the Kraken viewed Jones as a good third option behind Philipp Grubauer and Chris Driedger, and Jones was looking for an opportunity to rebuild his stock in free agency.

It wasn’t long before Jones had de-throned Driedger as the Kraken’s backup to Grubauer and for stretches of the season Jones looked to be on the cusp of taking over the starter’s role. His win-loss record was terrific as Jones went 27-13-3 in 48 games, however, his save-percentage remained low at .886.  As the playoffs began, Jones lost the Kraken net and was an afterthought once Grubauer regained the starting role and took the team to their first-ever playoff victory over the Colorado Avalanche. If you look closer at the numbers though, you will see that Jones started the season on fire, with 10 of his first 15 starts coming in as quality starts. But as the season wore on, Jones faded and was possibly overworked into exhaustion, which might explain his drop-in play later in the year.

Now, at 33 years old Jones is at a bit of a crossroads in his career. He was once an above-average starter on the cusp of being elite, but he hasn’t been in that realm for several years. It’s possible he may still view himself as a starter or a solid backup, however, the numbers don’t lie and they show that at this point in his career Jones is a below-average option in net. Which might explain why he is still unsigned this deep into the offseason.

Stats

2022-23: 48 GP, 27-13-3, 2.99 GAA, .886 SV%, 3 SO
Career: 444 GP, 225-163-35, 2.71 GAA, .905 SV%, 28 SO

Potential Suitors

Over the last decade or so it seems more common that teams have relied on more than two goalies to get to the Stanley Cup. The Penguins did it in 2016 and probably wished they had three goaltenders in 2022 when they lost starter Tristan Jarry and backup Casey DeSmith to injury. The Vegas Golden Knights did it this year as well as they relied on Adin Hill to lead them to their first Stanley Cup after losing multiple goalies to injury throughout the year. That is the puzzling piece with Jones, he could be a terrific third option on a team that is desperate for goaltending depth, as proven by his presence in Seattle last season. One might wonder if Jones thought he could get more money early on and perhaps priced himself out of a deal in the early days of free agency. Alex Nedeljkovic took a one-year deal for $1.5MM in Pittsburgh to be their third-stringer and I’d be curious to see if Martin Jones had any similar offers in early July.

Whether or not Jones has had any offers is moot at this point, he remains unsigned and while a lot of teams like Pittsburgh addressed their goaltending depth, some teams could still use some help.

We’ll start in the West with the Vancouver Canucks. Jones is from North Vancouver, and when a player comes up for free agency there is always speculation about a return home. In the case of Jones to the Canucks, a return would make a lot of sense. The Canucks received a lot of very poor goaltending last season when starter Thatcher Demko went down to an injury. And while Spencer Martin tried valiantly to fill the void left by Demko, he just isn’t skilled enough to be relied upon as a regular NHL backup. However, the Canucks currently have Martin pencilled in to be the backup to Demko, and that probably isn’t going to be good enough for a team that aspires of making the playoffs once again. The Canucks have had a tumultuous couple of seasons, particularly last season, and could use some more stability in what is arguably the most important position.

Over in the East, a team that could use some depth in the crease is the New Jersey Devils. The Devils have been rumored to be interested in several goaltending options including John Gibson and Connor Hellebuyck, but both of those goaltenders would represent a huge commitment financially and would require a lot of trade assets. The Devils do need some type of improvement in the crease, be it from outside help or internal improvement. The Devils relied on the tandem of Vitek Vanecek and Akira Schmid last season, and while they were good enough to get the Devils to the second round of the playoffs, neither goalie has a history of playing at a high level in the NHL. Vanecek has been a league-average netminder for his three seasons in the NHL while Schmid was terrific in his first season in the league but played just 18 games. Jones would provide the Devils with a veteran presence that could push the Devils’ two young goalies for playing time while providing leadership, guidance and most importantly, depth. Jones isn’t going to turn into a Vezina candidate overnight, but he also won’t cost the Devils any assets and would come cheap.

Projected Contract

Like many of the remaining unrestricted free agents, Jones is likely going to take a significant pay cut for the upcoming season. Jones made $2MM with the Kraken last season and would be lucky to fetch a one-year deal for half of that at this point in the offseason. Whatever team signs Jones will likely see him as a depth option who can start for an extended period should one of their top goaltenders go down to an injury. While there is value in that, the flat cap world has left many of the players like Jones scratching and clawing to stay in the league. Career tweener goaltenders such as Louie Domingue have managed to find guaranteed salaries at league minimum in recent years and one would have to think that Jones will end up with a similar fate.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Examining Maple Leafs Bargain Bin Free Agent Targets

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Joshua Kloke of The Athletic wrote an article today highlighting seven bargain bin free agent targets that could help the Toronto Maple Leafs next season. The Maple Leafs currently sit about $2MM over the salary cap despite putting Jake Muzzin and Matt Murray on LTIR for next year, making it difficult to imagine Toronto doing much shopping in free agency unless they sign two-way deals or move out a contract. The names on the list were interesting, and certainly, they reflect the Maple Leafs’ salary cap predicament.

The most interesting name on Kloke’s list was three-time Stanley Cup champion Jonathan Toews. Much speculation has been made this off-season about the future of Toews as he has battled health issues the past few seasons and may be leaning towards retirement. Toews was effective last year, albeit in limited action as he dressed in just 53 games and put up 15 goals and 16 assists. The former captain of the Chicago Blackhawks doesn’t have much to play for at this point, but if he were to choose the Maple Leafs as a destination, he could slide into a similar role that Jason Spezza and Joe Thornton had when they arrived in Toronto a few years ago. Toews could be a very effective fourth-line center for Toronto even at this point in his career, but one must wonder if wants to.

Zach Aston-Reese was another name on the list and is coming off a season in which he scored a career-high 10 goals with Toronto. By all accounts, Aston-Reese was well-liked in Toronto and was effective for them in a fourth-line role. We profiled the Staten Island, New York native just days ago in our Free Agent Profile series and highlighted that the 28-year-old has some of the best defensive analytics in the league but offers very little offensively.

Another name on the list was a young reclamation project and that is 25-year-old Jesse Puljujarvi. The right-winger is coming off a very disappointing season in which he scored just five goals and was dumped by the Edmonton Oilers in a cap-cutting move last year. Puljujarvi has been a disappointment in his young career after getting drafted fourth overall in 2016. He has just 51 goals and 63 assists in 334 NHL games but is just a year removed from a 36-point season in 2021-22. The Maple Leafs would probably be a good landing spot for Puljujarvi as he could play in more of a sheltered role in Toronto and wouldn’t be relied upon to provide much offence. On the flip side of that, he struggled to play with skilled players like Connor McDavid, which leads to speculation about whether he’d be able to play with any of Toronto’s skilled forwards.

The most realistic target for the Maple Leafs on the list was center Derick Brassard. Brassard entered last season on a professional tryout with the Ottawa Senators and put up decent numbers in limited playing time. The 35-year-old had 13 goals and 10 assists in 62 games while averaging just 12 minutes of ice time per game. It’s possible that Brassard might also elect to retire, but he did express a desire to keep playing at the end of last year. He also enjoyed playing closer to home having grown up in Hull, Quebec, which is just across the river from Ottawa. Should Brassard want to stay close to family, Toronto would make sense. From the Maple Leafs’ perspective, there is no harm in bringing in a veteran like Brassard on a one-year deal for the league minimum. He would give them a scoring option in the bottom six who can fill in at center, and they could bury his contract in the minors without penalty should things not work out.

The other names on Kloke’s list were defensemen Ethan Bear and Scott Harrington, as well as forward Sam Gagner. Harrington is a former Maple Leaf and could offer some depth on the backend, while Bear is expected to miss a significant chunk of the year and would be a mid-season addition. Gagner could offer the Leafs some depth scoring on the fourth line and is close with John Taveres from their days playing in London. Perhaps a return home could be possible for the 33-year-old Gagner.

Free Agent Profile: Caleb Jones

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It’s hard to believe it, but the NHL season starts in just over two months. For some NHLers they will soon be making plans to return to their respective cities to begin the upcoming season, for others like defenseman Caleb Jones, his plan is to try to find an NHL job in the next nine weeks.

It was surprising to see Jones go unqualified, as the Chicago Blackhawks elected to let him become a free agent rather than offer him a qualifying offer. Chicago needed to tender the 26-year-old at $1.35MM, but he was made a free agent when Chicago didn’t make the offer. Now, almost a month into free agency Jones remains unsigned, a somewhat surprising development for a player who has shown promise in his young career.

Jones, the younger brother of Blackhawks defenseman Seth Jones, was originally drafted by the Edmonton Oilers in the fourth round back in 2015 and played 93 games over parts of three seasons with the club before he was traded to Chicago in July 2021 as part of the Duncan Keith trade. Jones then dressed in 124 games over the past two years with the Blackhawks, putting up 9 goals and 22 assists.

Last year was a career year for Jones, as he had four goals and 12 assists in 73 games while playing over 19 minutes a night. Jones was tasked with playing second-pairing minutes on a very bad Chicago team and faired well despite not contributing much offensively. Jones led the defense core in many analytical categories and did a decent job controlling the play when he was on the ice.

Jones has typically demonstrated a good ability to move the puck well, utilizing his skating to push the puck up the ice and can keep himself mobile in the defensive zone to be a disruptive force on both the penalty kill and at even strength. However, he is not his older brother and doesn’t possess nearly the offensive acumen that Seth has displayed throughout his career.

The issue that Jones may face when trying to lock down an NHL job is that there is a bit of a surplus of left-shot depth defensemen in the NHL. Pittsburgh has Ty Smith and Pierre-Olivier Joseph competing for one spot on their third pairing, as do the Calgary Flames, with Oliver Kylington now returning after a one-year absence. The Ottawa Senators have several solid left-shot options throughout their NHL lineup, as do many other teams. For Jones, he could offer a solid third-pairing option, but there are very few teams who need that right now.

Stats

2022-23: 73 GP, 4-14-16, -19 rating, 40 PIMS, 86 shots, 48.9% CF, 19:13 ATOI
Career: 217 GP, 14-36-50, -39 rating, 80 PIMS, 225 shots, 48.1% CF, 16:49 ATOI

Potential Suitors

Jones would have teams lining up for his services if he was a right-shot defenseman, but he shoots left and typically plays the left side. While his market will be small, there are sure to be teams that could find a role for the younger Jones brother.

In the East, the Buffalo Sabres have Ilya Lyubushkin slated to play as a third bottom-pair left-side defenseman, and while he offers a physical element and does a good job suppressing scoring chances, he is not a good puck mover and isn’t particularly adept at much else. Jones could push Lyubushkin and create healthy competition for playing time in the Sabres defense core. The one barrier for Jones to Buffalo could be that the Sabres have already brought in Erik Johnson and Connor Clifton in free agency, and management may feel that they’ve already brought in enough competition on their back end.

In the West, The Anaheim Ducks have brought in a few NHL veterans to try and give guidance to their young stars. While Radko Gudas will bring some leadership and physicality on the back end, the Ducks could use a few more veterans who can teach their young players to become good pros. Jones could be a solid fit for the role as he has already played on a young, bad, rebuilding team and knows the challenges and tribulations that come with the growing pains of a rebuild.

Sticking with the West, another rebuilding club that could use some help on the backend is the San Jose Sharks. The Sharks aren’t pushing to make the playoffs this year, but that doesn’t mean they should stop looking for improvements. At the moment, the Sharks have 30-year-old journeyman Jacob MacDonald penciled in as their third pairing left side defenseman and Marc-Édouard Vlasic on their second pair. Vlasic was a terrific shutdown defender for a long time, but he has seen notable declines in his game for the past five years or so. Jones would likely offer an upgrade on both men while not costing San Jose much in the way of assets.

Projected Contract

Unfortunately for Jones, he is most likely going to be taking a pay cut from the $1.35MM he made last season. There should be a small market for his services as the season nears, but the native of Arlington, Texas, might have to sign a professional try-out to get teams interested in his services. Matt Dumba and Ethan Bear are both still unrestricted and might attract more interest as they are right-shot defensemen and have better track records. Jones should ultimately be able to find an NHL deal, but when he does, it will likely come in around the league minimum or a tick above it. There were many NHL defensemen who found deals late in the summer last year, and it seems that could happen again this summer with Jones.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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