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Free Agent Profile: Martin Jones

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Martin Jones career arc as a professional hockey player has been interesting to follow. He emerged in 2013-14 with the Los Angeles Kings as a solid backup to star goaltender Jonathan Quick going 16-11-2 over two seasons with a .923 save percentage and a 1.99 goals-against average. He was then traded to the Boston Bruins in June 2015 as part of a package for Milan Lucic before then being shipped back West to the San Jose Sharks for a first-round pick.

It was in San Jose in 2015-16 that Jones established himself as a bonafide starting goaltender and led the Sharks to within two wins of the Stanley Cup. Jones was terrific through his first three seasons in San Jose compiling a record of 102-68-16 while consistently posting a save percentage around .915. He was also a workhorse during his first four seasons dressing in over 60 games each year. In July 2017, San Jose felt so confident that Jones was their goalie of the future that they locked him up to a lucrative six-year deal worth a total of $34.5MM

But the Sharks’ confidence in the North Vancouver, British Columbia native quickly waned as Jones posted three consecutive years with a save percentage below .900. Realizing that his play was dropping off, the Sharks bought Jones out of the final three years of his contract in July 2021, a move that left them with a cap hit of almost $2MM annually until 2026-27. After Jones was unceremoniously bought out of his contract, he signed a one-year $2MM deal with the Philadelphia Flyers and posted numbers that mirrored his final three seasons in San Jose going 12-18-3 with a .900 save percentage and a 3.42 goals-against.

Last summer, after all the initial excitement of free agency had cleared, Jones signed a one-year contract with the Seattle Kraken in a move that was largely without any fanfare. The deal seemed like a good match as the Kraken viewed Jones as a good third option behind Philipp Grubauer and Chris Driedger, and Jones was looking for an opportunity to rebuild his stock in free agency.

It wasn’t long before Jones had de-throned Driedger as the Kraken’s backup to Grubauer and for stretches of the season Jones looked to be on the cusp of taking over the starter’s role. His win-loss record was terrific as Jones went 27-13-3 in 48 games, however, his save-percentage remained low at .886.  As the playoffs began, Jones lost the Kraken net and was an afterthought once Grubauer regained the starting role and took the team to their first-ever playoff victory over the Colorado Avalanche. If you look closer at the numbers though, you will see that Jones started the season on fire, with 10 of his first 15 starts coming in as quality starts. But as the season wore on, Jones faded and was possibly overworked into exhaustion, which might explain his drop-in play later in the year.

Now, at 33 years old Jones is at a bit of a crossroads in his career. He was once an above-average starter on the cusp of being elite, but he hasn’t been in that realm for several years. It’s possible he may still view himself as a starter or a solid backup, however, the numbers don’t lie and they show that at this point in his career Jones is a below-average option in net. Which might explain why he is still unsigned this deep into the offseason.

Stats

2022-23: 48 GP, 27-13-3, 2.99 GAA, .886 SV%, 3 SO
Career: 444 GP, 225-163-35, 2.71 GAA, .905 SV%, 28 SO

Potential Suitors

Over the last decade or so it seems more common that teams have relied on more than two goalies to get to the Stanley Cup. The Penguins did it in 2016 and probably wished they had three goaltenders in 2022 when they lost starter Tristan Jarry and backup Casey DeSmith to injury. The Vegas Golden Knights did it this year as well as they relied on Adin Hill to lead them to their first Stanley Cup after losing multiple goalies to injury throughout the year. That is the puzzling piece with Jones, he could be a terrific third option on a team that is desperate for goaltending depth, as proven by his presence in Seattle last season. One might wonder if Jones thought he could get more money early on and perhaps priced himself out of a deal in the early days of free agency. Alex Nedeljkovic took a one-year deal for $1.5MM in Pittsburgh to be their third-stringer and I’d be curious to see if Martin Jones had any similar offers in early July.

Whether or not Jones has had any offers is moot at this point, he remains unsigned and while a lot of teams like Pittsburgh addressed their goaltending depth, some teams could still use some help.

We’ll start in the West with the Vancouver Canucks. Jones is from North Vancouver, and when a player comes up for free agency there is always speculation about a return home. In the case of Jones to the Canucks, a return would make a lot of sense. The Canucks received a lot of very poor goaltending last season when starter Thatcher Demko went down to an injury. And while Spencer Martin tried valiantly to fill the void left by Demko, he just isn’t skilled enough to be relied upon as a regular NHL backup. However, the Canucks currently have Martin pencilled in to be the backup to Demko, and that probably isn’t going to be good enough for a team that aspires of making the playoffs once again. The Canucks have had a tumultuous couple of seasons, particularly last season, and could use some more stability in what is arguably the most important position.

Over in the East, a team that could use some depth in the crease is the New Jersey Devils. The Devils have been rumored to be interested in several goaltending options including John Gibson and Connor Hellebuyck, but both of those goaltenders would represent a huge commitment financially and would require a lot of trade assets. The Devils do need some type of improvement in the crease, be it from outside help or internal improvement. The Devils relied on the tandem of Vitek Vanecek and Akira Schmid last season, and while they were good enough to get the Devils to the second round of the playoffs, neither goalie has a history of playing at a high level in the NHL. Vanecek has been a league-average netminder for his three seasons in the NHL while Schmid was terrific in his first season in the league but played just 18 games. Jones would provide the Devils with a veteran presence that could push the Devils’ two young goalies for playing time while providing leadership, guidance and most importantly, depth. Jones isn’t going to turn into a Vezina candidate overnight, but he also won’t cost the Devils any assets and would come cheap.

Projected Contract

Like many of the remaining unrestricted free agents, Jones is likely going to take a significant pay cut for the upcoming season. Jones made $2MM with the Kraken last season and would be lucky to fetch a one-year deal for half of that at this point in the offseason. Whatever team signs Jones will likely see him as a depth option who can start for an extended period should one of their top goaltenders go down to an injury. While there is value in that, the flat cap world has left many of the players like Jones scratching and clawing to stay in the league. Career tweener goaltenders such as Louie Domingue have managed to find guaranteed salaries at league minimum in recent years and one would have to think that Jones will end up with a similar fate.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Examining Maple Leafs Bargain Bin Free Agent Targets

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Joshua Kloke of The Athletic wrote an article today highlighting seven bargain bin free agent targets that could help the Toronto Maple Leafs next season. The Maple Leafs currently sit about $2MM over the salary cap despite putting Jake Muzzin and Matt Murray on LTIR for next year, making it difficult to imagine Toronto doing much shopping in free agency unless they sign two-way deals or move out a contract. The names on the list were interesting, and certainly, they reflect the Maple Leafs’ salary cap predicament.

The most interesting name on Kloke’s list was three-time Stanley Cup champion Jonathan Toews. Much speculation has been made this off-season about the future of Toews as he has battled health issues the past few seasons and may be leaning towards retirement. Toews was effective last year, albeit in limited action as he dressed in just 53 games and put up 15 goals and 16 assists. The former captain of the Chicago Blackhawks doesn’t have much to play for at this point, but if he were to choose the Maple Leafs as a destination, he could slide into a similar role that Jason Spezza and Joe Thornton had when they arrived in Toronto a few years ago. Toews could be a very effective fourth-line center for Toronto even at this point in his career, but one must wonder if wants to.

Zach Aston-Reese was another name on the list and is coming off a season in which he scored a career-high 10 goals with Toronto. By all accounts, Aston-Reese was well-liked in Toronto and was effective for them in a fourth-line role. We profiled the Staten Island, New York native just days ago in our Free Agent Profile series and highlighted that the 28-year-old has some of the best defensive analytics in the league but offers very little offensively.

Another name on the list was a young reclamation project and that is 25-year-old Jesse Puljujarvi. The right-winger is coming off a very disappointing season in which he scored just five goals and was dumped by the Edmonton Oilers in a cap-cutting move last year. Puljujarvi has been a disappointment in his young career after getting drafted fourth overall in 2016. He has just 51 goals and 63 assists in 334 NHL games but is just a year removed from a 36-point season in 2021-22. The Maple Leafs would probably be a good landing spot for Puljujarvi as he could play in more of a sheltered role in Toronto and wouldn’t be relied upon to provide much offence. On the flip side of that, he struggled to play with skilled players like Connor McDavid, which leads to speculation about whether he’d be able to play with any of Toronto’s skilled forwards.

The most realistic target for the Maple Leafs on the list was center Derick Brassard. Brassard entered last season on a professional tryout with the Ottawa Senators and put up decent numbers in limited playing time. The 35-year-old had 13 goals and 10 assists in 62 games while averaging just 12 minutes of ice time per game. It’s possible that Brassard might also elect to retire, but he did express a desire to keep playing at the end of last year. He also enjoyed playing closer to home having grown up in Hull, Quebec, which is just across the river from Ottawa. Should Brassard want to stay close to family, Toronto would make sense. From the Maple Leafs’ perspective, there is no harm in bringing in a veteran like Brassard on a one-year deal for the league minimum. He would give them a scoring option in the bottom six who can fill in at center, and they could bury his contract in the minors without penalty should things not work out.

The other names on Kloke’s list were defensemen Ethan Bear and Scott Harrington, as well as forward Sam Gagner. Harrington is a former Maple Leaf and could offer some depth on the backend, while Bear is expected to miss a significant chunk of the year and would be a mid-season addition. Gagner could offer the Leafs some depth scoring on the fourth line and is close with John Taveres from their days playing in London. Perhaps a return home could be possible for the 33-year-old Gagner.

Free Agent Profile: Caleb Jones

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It’s hard to believe it, but the NHL season starts in just over two months. For some NHLers they will soon be making plans to return to their respective cities to begin the upcoming season, for others like defenseman Caleb Jones, his plan is to try to find an NHL job in the next nine weeks.

It was surprising to see Jones go unqualified, as the Chicago Blackhawks elected to let him become a free agent rather than offer him a qualifying offer. Chicago needed to tender the 26-year-old at $1.35MM, but he was made a free agent when Chicago didn’t make the offer. Now, almost a month into free agency Jones remains unsigned, a somewhat surprising development for a player who has shown promise in his young career.

Jones, the younger brother of Blackhawks defenseman Seth Jones, was originally drafted by the Edmonton Oilers in the fourth round back in 2015 and played 93 games over parts of three seasons with the club before he was traded to Chicago in July 2021 as part of the Duncan Keith trade. Jones then dressed in 124 games over the past two years with the Blackhawks, putting up 9 goals and 22 assists.

Last year was a career year for Jones, as he had four goals and 12 assists in 73 games while playing over 19 minutes a night. Jones was tasked with playing second-pairing minutes on a very bad Chicago team and faired well despite not contributing much offensively. Jones led the defense core in many analytical categories and did a decent job controlling the play when he was on the ice.

Jones has typically demonstrated a good ability to move the puck well, utilizing his skating to push the puck up the ice and can keep himself mobile in the defensive zone to be a disruptive force on both the penalty kill and at even strength. However, he is not his older brother and doesn’t possess nearly the offensive acumen that Seth has displayed throughout his career.

The issue that Jones may face when trying to lock down an NHL job is that there is a bit of a surplus of left-shot depth defensemen in the NHL. Pittsburgh has Ty Smith and Pierre-Olivier Joseph competing for one spot on their third pairing, as do the Calgary Flames, with Oliver Kylington now returning after a one-year absence. The Ottawa Senators have several solid left-shot options throughout their NHL lineup, as do many other teams. For Jones, he could offer a solid third-pairing option, but there are very few teams who need that right now.

Stats

2022-23: 73 GP, 4-14-16, -19 rating, 40 PIMS, 86 shots, 48.9% CF, 19:13 ATOI
Career: 217 GP, 14-36-50, -39 rating, 80 PIMS, 225 shots, 48.1% CF, 16:49 ATOI

Potential Suitors

Jones would have teams lining up for his services if he was a right-shot defenseman, but he shoots left and typically plays the left side. While his market will be small, there are sure to be teams that could find a role for the younger Jones brother.

In the East, the Buffalo Sabres have Ilya Lyubushkin slated to play as a third bottom-pair left-side defenseman, and while he offers a physical element and does a good job suppressing scoring chances, he is not a good puck mover and isn’t particularly adept at much else. Jones could push Lyubushkin and create healthy competition for playing time in the Sabres defense core. The one barrier for Jones to Buffalo could be that the Sabres have already brought in Erik Johnson and Connor Clifton in free agency, and management may feel that they’ve already brought in enough competition on their back end.

In the West, The Anaheim Ducks have brought in a few NHL veterans to try and give guidance to their young stars. While Radko Gudas will bring some leadership and physicality on the back end, the Ducks could use a few more veterans who can teach their young players to become good pros. Jones could be a solid fit for the role as he has already played on a young, bad, rebuilding team and knows the challenges and tribulations that come with the growing pains of a rebuild.

Sticking with the West, another rebuilding club that could use some help on the backend is the San Jose Sharks. The Sharks aren’t pushing to make the playoffs this year, but that doesn’t mean they should stop looking for improvements. At the moment, the Sharks have 30-year-old journeyman Jacob MacDonald penciled in as their third pairing left side defenseman and Marc-Édouard Vlasic on their second pair. Vlasic was a terrific shutdown defender for a long time, but he has seen notable declines in his game for the past five years or so. Jones would likely offer an upgrade on both men while not costing San Jose much in the way of assets.

Projected Contract

Unfortunately for Jones, he is most likely going to be taking a pay cut from the $1.35MM he made last season. There should be a small market for his services as the season nears, but the native of Arlington, Texas, might have to sign a professional try-out to get teams interested in his services. Matt Dumba and Ethan Bear are both still unrestricted and might attract more interest as they are right-shot defensemen and have better track records. Jones should ultimately be able to find an NHL deal, but when he does, it will likely come in around the league minimum or a tick above it. There were many NHL defensemen who found deals late in the summer last year, and it seems that could happen again this summer with Jones.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Josh Bailey

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Often overlooked among a given year’s unrestricted free agent class are the late additions – unqualified RFAs and bought-out players. Longtime New York Islander Josh Bailey falls into the latter category. Unlike other prominent bought-out names, such as Matt Duchene and Oliver Ekman-Larsson, he remains unsigned as we enter August.

Bailey was one of the more underrated franchise cornerstones in the league for quite a while. Never really viewed as a high-end piece, Bailey didn’t let that stop him from being one of the more consistent Islanders forwards throughout the 2010s. A gifted playmaker, Bailey was money in the bank for between 40 and 60 points and played well enough, no matter who you put him with. He’d begun to drop off after his 30th birthday like so many others, however, leading the Islanders to deal him to the Chicago Blackhawks, along with a 2026 second-round pick, for future considerations last month. Chicago promptly bought him out, making Bailey a UFA for the first time in his 15-year NHL career.

It’s been all quiet on the western front for Bailey as of late. However, reports immediately after Chicago bought out Bailey suggested the Ottawa Senators were circling the veteran winger. It’s a fit that makes a fair bit of sense for both sides, given Ottawa’s lack of scoring depth, especially on their fourth line.

His built-in versatility makes him an attractive option for a bottom-six role as he ages, and he’s still a valuable playmaker and penalty-killer in isolation. His declining speed and skating limit him from being effective in a top-six role, but there are far worse veteran additions to plug-and-play this late into the offseason.

Stats

2022-23: 64 GP, 8-17-25, +3 rating, 2 PIMs, 72 shots, 48.2% CF, 15:08 ATOI
Career: 1057 GP, 184-396-580, -48 rating, 241 PIMs, 1591 shots, 48.1% CF, 16:32 ATOI

Potential Suitors

Any team with any cap space to spare could likely fit Bailey in. He’s unlikely to command over $1MM on a one-year deal and is ineligible for performance bonuses. While he’s unlikely to take a role with a team already filled out on the wings, quite a few teams could use Bailey as an upgrade on their bottom two lines.

As mentioned earlier, Ottawa is quite a clear fit in the Eastern Conference. They have over $5MM in cap space to spare, per CapFriendly. While they still have Shane Pinto to re-sign, he won’t command all of it. Bailey is a significant upgrade over the team’s currently projected fourth-line wingers, Parker Kelly and Egor Sokolov, and he could help catalyze some offense from the team’s third and fourth lines. They could use it after taking a goal-scoring hit in their top six by swapping Alex DeBrincat for Dominik Kubalik.

He could also head out to a team with a winning pedigree – the Colorado Avalanche. After a flurry of offseason additions, including Ross Colton and Ryan Johansen, the team still has a handful of depth forward spots available for competition. Bailey’s a more experienced option than Fredrik Olofsson, who Colorado acquired from the Dallas Stars in exchange for future considerations earlier this summer and promptly extended on a league-minimum contract. If nothing else, he’d give Avalanche head coach Jared Bednar more options to organize his second, third and fourth lines. There are many question marks regarding how the Avs’ opening night lineup card will look in any event.

Projected Contract

Bailey did not appear in our Top 50 UFA rankings list, nor was he eligible, thanks to his buyout. There’s no feasible way his next deal lands anywhere close to his previous $5MM cap hit or even his $3.5MM salary that he was due for 2023-24, especially at this point in the summer. However, a handful of playoff-hopeful or contending teams (as outlined above) could afford the veteran on a deal worth $1MM or less. Given his declining role and production, he’s likely to receive a number in that range from any team that approaches him, regardless of their contention status.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Danton Heinen

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This is the time of the summer when NHL signings are few and far between. Many teams have made their moves and are now tweaking around the edges, while other teams are looking to figure out how to become cap compliant in October. For the unrestricted free agents who remain unsigned, it must be a stressful time of year, it’s almost like a game of musical chairs, everyone has their seat, and only a select few are left standing.

For winger Danton Heinen he is familiar with this waiting game, he wasn’t signed last summer until late July when he inked a one-year $1MM deal with the Pittsburgh Penguins. At the time, Heinen was coming off a career-high 18 goals and a very respectable 33 points. It seemed like an absolute steal at that price point, but then Heinen failed to match that production this past season. Coming off a very disappointing season it’s hard to see Heinen topping his salary from this past season, and it appears he might have to wait even deeper into the summer to find an NHL deal.

Heinen entered this past season with an opportunity to capture a spot in the Penguins lineup next to Evgeni Malkin. At the beginning of the season, the Penguins weren’t sure how Jason Zucker would fit into the lineup and Heinen was brought in as a depth piece who could fill in admirably in the top six, and that is what he did to start the season. Heinen began the year with six points in his first five games including a two-goal game against the Columbus Blue Jackets in October as he filled in for an injured Jake Guentzel alongside Sidney Crosby. However, over the course of his next 34 games, Heinen would put up just five assists and didn’t score another goal until late January, a period of over three months between goals. Heinen finished the season with eight goals and 14 assists in 65 games and ended up in Mike Sullivan’s doghouse many times throughout the year.

While Heinen’s offensive numbers took a nosedive last season from the year previous, they fell close to his career average as he has typically been a 10-15 goal scorer and a player who can contribute 25-30 points. Outside of a single 47-point season, Heinen has never topped 34 points in any other NHL season. His lack of offensive ability wasn’t an issue earlier in his career as his shortcomings could be glossed over because he offered a lot more defensive prowess and the ability to disrupt plays in the defensive zone. He could also get to the front of the net, but that seemed to disappear last season as he appeared to lack the confidence to get to the dirty areas of the ice to distract defenders away from some of the Penguins more gifted offensive players. Overall, it was a tough season for Heinen and the Penguins as he seemed to struggle more and more as the season went on, as did the entire Penguins lineup.

Despite the disappointment of being a healthy scratch many times this past season, Heinen is still very much an NHL player. The flat salary cap has put him and many others in the precarious position of being left without a job deep into the offseason despite having a small track record of NHL success. Heinen has 70 goals and 106 assists in 413 career NHL games, and while those offensive numbers aren’t eye-popping, he does offer several intangibles that could be attractive to many teams. He is a decent skater and doesn’t mind taking a hit to make a play, however, he does get pushed around a lot and could probably stand to put on a bit of muscle to help him when he does get into the dirty areas of the ice.

Stats

2022-23: 65 GP, 8-14-22, -5 rating, 12 PIMS, 96 shots, 40.0% faceoffs, 51.3% CF, 10:45 ATOI
Career: 413 GP, 70-106-176, +10 rating, 72 PIMS, 675 shots, 31.3% faceoffs, 51.9% CF, 13:35 ATOI

Potential Suitors

After spending seven years in the league, it is unlikely that Heinen would want to be part of a rebuilding team, however, given his precarious position in the league he doesn’t have the luxury of being picky. Heinen has dressed for three different franchises at this point and may never see the security of a long-term deal with any one team. That doesn’t mean he won’t have suitors as teams are always looking for solid depth options late in the summer and around training camp when injuries begin to pop up.

In the East, one team that could use some good forward depth is the Ottawa Senators. They’ve had success before taking on reclamation projects and Heinen could certainly be categorized as that. Heinen doesn’t need to be fully rebuilt but he does need to be put in a spot where he can play with good players in the bottom six and get the opportunity to jump up into the top six from time to time. Ottawa could offer exactly that as Heinen would be a good fit on their third line next to your center Shane Pinto. The Senators could also use a good depth forward who could jump up and replace Dominik Kubalik should he struggle with his new team. The Senators will also be dressing a few young forwards in their bottom six and could use a solid veteran to help guide the youngsters and show them what it takes to be a pro.

Sticking with the East, Heinen could also be a good fit with one of the Penguins closest rivals the Columbus Blue Jackets. The Jackets don’t have much in the way of offensive firepower in their bottom six forward group and Heinen would actually represent an upgrade on several of their current options. Thus far the Blue Jackets have prioritized acquiring defensemen this offseason, however, Heinen could represent a cheap upgrade who wouldn’t require much term or cap space.

Out West, a couple of teams could make sense of potential destinations for Heinen. A native of Langley, British Columbia, a trip home to Vancouver would make for a nice story and a fit for both player and team. The Vancouver Canucks currently have Teddy Bleuger pencilled in as their third-line center; a player Heinen knows well having played on a line with him in both of the past two seasons. Heinen would be a more than capable replacement for Phil Di Giuseppe and could also add a bit of depth on the wing for the Canucks, something they are certainly lacking.

Staying in the West, the Winnipeg Jets lost a few forwards this offseason and seem to be in a bit of a holding pattern. Much has been made of the trade targets on the Jets, but it appears that they do want to make another run at the playoffs next season with much of the same core. If Heinen were to sign with the Jets, it would most likely be as a 13th forward and the opportunity to push fourth-line winger Morgan Barron. The 24-year-old Barron had similar numbers to Heinen last year but battled injuries early in the year. The Jets have a few terrific young forwards and adding a solid veteran like Heinen could help provide some mentorship to the youth in the Jets forward ranks.

Projected Contract

Heinen wasn’t mentioned as one of our Top 50 Unrestricted Free Agents before free agency began. He fell well outside that list as this past season in Pittsburgh really damaged his free-agent stock. While Heinen has his shortcomings, he is still just 28 and has had recent success when sheltered in the right situation. He can contribute on a third or fourth line and chip in a bit of offence as well. At this point Heinen would do well to top his deal from last July, he is likely to still get a one-year deal, but it will probably fall around the $1MM guarantee he received from Pittsburgh last summer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Tomas Tatar

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Since the NHL’s salary cap upper limit has remained relatively flat in the last few years, salary cap space has been extremely scarce across the league. The type of player perhaps most negatively impacted by the leaguewide lack of cap space is the NHL’s “middle-class” of free agents. The are the sort of complementary players who don’t necessarily define a lineup, but nonetheless regularly contribute to one.

Tomas Tatar is maybe the best example of a player whose earning power has been decreased by the tight financial situation of most contending teams.

As a scoring winger with a consistent track record of potting 20-30 goals and 45-55 points per season, Tatar is exactly the kind of player who would have likely sparked a significant bidding war on the free agent market.

That’s especially true when one considers the fact that Tatar has the upside to score even more, as he did in 2020-21 when he led the Montreal Canadiens with 61 points in 68 games. That’s a 73-point 82-game pace, and the type of production that’s rare to find on the open market.

But with cap space at an absolute premium, those types of bidding wars became reserved for only the cream-of-the-crop free agents.

That leaves players such as Tatar unable to secure the pricey contracts lasting a half-decade or longer free agents in earlier cycles (such as James Neal or Andrew Ladd) were able to receive.

In his most recent trip to free agency, Tatar ended up signing a two-year, $4.5MM AAV contract with a rebuilding New Jersey Devils team.

It wasn’t exactly an unfair yearly price tag for Tatar’s services, but it also wasn’t the career-defining cash-in with a contending club that many free agents in earlier cycles had been able to land.

Fast forward two years, Tatar has once again hit free agency and he remains unsigned more than two weeks after the market opened. Next to Vladimir Tarasenko he’s one of the few goal scorers and proven NHL commodities left on the market, though there are certain elements of his profile that could give contending teams pause.

Perhaps the most significant red flag in Tatar’s profile is for how consistent his regular-season production has been, a lack of productivity in the playoffs has been similarly consistent. Tatar only scored one goal in 12 playoff games for the Devils, sat as a healthy scratch for most of the Montreal Canadiens’ 2021 Stanley Cup Final run, and has just 13 points in 52 career playoff games.

Set to turn 33 in December, it’s not exactly likely that the inability to contribute in the playoffs that has been consistent throughout his career will end up changing. So while Tatar is still searching for his first-ever Stanley Cup, he might be a better fit for a team looking to escape its rebuild with the goal of reaching the playoffs, rather than a club with true Stanley Cup aspirations.

Stats

2022-23: 82 GP, 20-28-48, +41 rating, 30 PIMs, 153 shots on goal, 60.2% CF, 15:07 ATOI
Career: 783 GP, 211-244-455, +42 rating, 276 PIMs, 1,636 shots on goal, 60.6% CF, 15:29 ATOI

Potential Suitors

Tatar is an interesting case because what sort of contending team wouldn’t jump at the chance to add a consistent 20-25 goal, 45-50 point scorer to its lineup? But as previously mentioned, the pattern Tatar has clearly established throughout his career of struggling mightily to produce in the postseason should give many contending teams pause.

At this point, combining the realities of Tatar’s profile with the realities of the leaguewide financial picture, Tatar’s most optimal suitors are franchises more concerned with escaping a rebuild and reaching the postseason rather than the ones worried about immediately competing for the Stanley Cup.

A team such as the Buffalo Sabres, who own the NHL’s longest playoff drought, could be a good fit. While they already boast quite a bit of talent along the wings, Jack Quinn recently underwent surgery to repair an Achilles injury and is expected to miss the start of next season. They’re currently projected to have around $6.7MM in cap space, so fitting Tatar on a one-year contract would be no issue.

Not only would signing Tatar insulate them against any further health complications in their forward corps, it would also protect their playoff chances in the case a player such as J.J. Peterka gets hit with a sophomore slump.

Another team that could fit is the Sabres’ Atlantic Division rival, the Ottawa Senators. They too have the cap space to fit a Tatar contract, and similar to Buffalo they are desperate to return to the playoffs after a long absence.

Ottawa just dealt Alex DeBrincat away and while they received Dominik Kubalik in return, Tatar would be a powerful addition to their third line. He could greatly help the development of a young winger such as Ridly Greig, who could end up playing on Tatar’s line.

Projected Contract

At this point, it seems unlikely Tatar’s next deal will match the two-year, $4.5MM AAV pact he signed in his last trip to free agency. A one-year deal seems the most likely outcome, and the ultimate price could very well depend on what Tarasenko signs for. Should Tarasenko end up receiving under $5MM, for example, Tatar’s argument to receive a guarantee around that number weakens.

Tatar could very well end up earning a one-year deal at a mid-range AAV, but seeing as players such as Blake Wheeler have taken contracts below even $1MM overall, attempting to project what Tatar will earn on his next deal is something of a guessing game. The most important thing to know, then, is that at this stage of the market, the race to secure Tatar’s services is unlikely to be extremely competitive and pricey.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Snapshots: Kane, Tatar, Khusnutdinov

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With winger Patrick Kane recovering from hip resurfacing surgery, he isn’t expected to be signing a contract in the foreseeable future.  When the time does come for him to sign, ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski relays that the veteran is expected to ink a one-year deal.  Kane is coming off a bit of a down season by his standards although he still put up 21 goals and 57 points in 2022-23 and was one of the highest-scoring UFAs.  Accordingly, it’s quite possible that he could have landed a multi-year commitment.  Instead, he appears to be looking for a one-year pact, one that could allow him to join a contender but he’ll likely be leaving money on the table to do so as he won’t be eligible for performance bonuses on this deal since it will be his age-34 season.

Elsewhere around the hockey world:

  • Todd Reynolds, the agent for UFA winger Tomas Tatar, told Wyshynski in that same column that there has been strong interest in his client so far, even with teams currently being squeezed by the salary cap. The 32-year-old had to wait a little while to sign in his last trip through free agency in 2021, eventually inking a two-year deal with New Jersey.  He was relatively productive in that stretch, picking up 35 goals and 43 assists in 158 games, showing he can still hold down a top-four role.  Even so, it seems likely that Tatar will have to take a cut on his previous $4.5MM AAV, even if a team is able to clear out a player or two to make room for him on their roster.
  • Wild prospect Marat Khusnutdinov is heading into the final year of his contract in the KHL and he may not be seeing any AHL time once it’s done. Player development director Brad Bombardir told Joe Smith of The Athletic (subscription link) that organizationally, they feel the 20-year-old is ready to step into Minnesota’s lineup at any point from this point.  Khusnutdinov was a second-round pick back in 2020 (37th overall) and has over 100 KHL appearances and 55 points under his belt, showing that he’s capable of producing in the pros.  He could be a candidate to sign late in the season with Minnesota depending on how far they and SKA St. Petersburg go in their respective playoffs should they get there.

2023 Free Agency Update

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Now that a full week has passed since the free agent market opened up on July 1st, there are still quite a few quality players left on the market. Unfortunately for most of these players, the fact that the salary cap only went up to $83.5MM for the 2023-24 season, has severely limited teams from adding more talent to their roster.

There are a few teams, such as the Toronto Maple Leafs, Vancouver Canucks, Tampa Bay Lightning, Pittsburgh Penguins, and Vegas Golden Knights that are currently too close to the cap to make any more significant additions; however, there are a number of teams that still have some financial wiggle room. In this list, we will go through some of the top remaining names left on the market organized by position.

Forwards

Patrick Kane – His long-time teammate, Jonathan Toews, is most likely headed towards retirement, but thus far, there has been no indication to suggest that Kane will join him down that path. During the 2021-22 season, Kane continued displaying incredible offensive talent, which has spanned over the last decade, evidenced by his 92 points in 78 games. Unfortunately for Kane, a nagging hip injury seemed to follow him around, as he was only able to muster a total of 35 points in 50 games for the Chicago Blackhawks, only nine of those being goals. As the league grew closer to the trade deadline, speculation grew that Kane may not be moved at all.

To prove the doubters wrong, in his last five games wearing a Blackhawks uniform, Kane scored three goals and seven assists in five games and was promptly moved to the New York Rangers. Needing some time to adjust to a new environment, Kane put up a respectable 12 points in 19 games for the Rangers during the regular season. Even more importantly, Kane did continue his impressive career-long playoff success, scoring six points in seven games for New York.

Vladimir Tarasenko – Now one of Kane’s former teammates with the Rangers, Tarasenko is also suffering from a depressed year according to his standards. Just a season ago, Tarasenko finished with 82 points in 75 games, looking to be setting himself nicely to hit the market this offseason. Much like Kane, Tarasenko’s offensive numbers took a dive, only scoring 10 goals in 38 games for the St.Louis Blues, before he was also traded to New York before the deadline.

In 31 games for the Rangers, Tarasenko did see a slight offensive output improvement, but not by much. In 31 games in New York, he scored eight goals and 13 assists, adding another four points in seven playoff games. Tarasenko had been heavily linked to the Ottawa Senators and Carolina Hurricanes towards the opening of the market, but was so underwhelmed by his offers, that he switched his representation to CAA Hockey.

Tomas Tatar – One of the more interesting names still available in the free agency market, Tatar has made it difficult for teams to gauge exactly what kind of player they are going to get. In the regular season, he is typically good for 20 goals, and anywhere from 25-35 assists. Last season playing for the New Jersey Devils, Tatar scored 20 goals and 28 assists in 82 games, impressively carrying a rating of +41 at season’s end.

Not only does he carry above-average offensive output for the majority of his career, his possession numbers are solid too, evidenced by his career marks of 60.6 CF%. The major problem for Tatar is the completely different player that seems to come out during the playoffs. In 52 career playoff games, Tatar carries a horrid seven goals and six assists, and an even worse -14 rating. This fact about Tatar has likely driven playoff teams away from his camp, and even rebuilding teams as well, as they likely wouldn’t receive much interest for his services at the trade deadline.

Defensemen

Mathew Dumba – One of the focal points to the Minnesota Wild’s defense over the last decade, Dumba has seemingly become a different player after his impressive 2017-18 season. The offensive numbers have taken the biggest hit, only scoring 94 points in the last 209 games wearing a Wild jersey. Things are not all bad though for Dumba, as he regularly played over 20 minutes a game in Minnesota, saw ice time on the penalty kill, and still carries an oiSV% of 90.5.

Because of their cap situation, it is more than likely that Dumba has played his last game for the Wild, and the two most interested teams find themselves well out of the playoff picture for the next couple of seasons. The Arizona Coyotes have reportedly been linked to Dumba, giving him better access to power-play time; and the San Jose Sharks have considered adding him as well, citing Dumba as a possible replacement for Erik Karlsson.

Goaltenders

Martin Jones – The 2023 free agency class was always considered thin, and the goalie market may have been the thinnest of all positions. Most quality names have already signed up to this point, making Jones one of the better options still available.

During the 2022-23 season, Jones had a back-and-forth season. During a stretch in early January for Seattle, Jones produced a record of 7-0-0, carrying a .926 SV% during that stretch. The win streaks that the Kraken were able to achieve with Jones in the net ultimately put the team in the playoffs, but the overall picture of Jones’ year doesn’t look promising. Although finishing with a great record of 27-13-3, Jones finished the year with a .886 SV% and a 2.99 GAA. The underlying numbers don’t bode well for Jones either, as his GSAA finished at -21.4.

Ottawa Senators Re-Sign Travis Hamonic

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The Ottawa Senators are bringing back defenseman Travis Hamonic for two more seasons. Per PuckPedia, the 32-year-old UFA defenseman signed a two-year contract worth $1.1MM per season. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman adds he’s receiving a full no-movement clause in the deal.

While an afterthought on this year’s market, Hamonic actually had one of his best seasons in quite some time in 2022-23. While he saw his ice time dip from his normal 19 to 21 minutes per game, his 21 points were his most in a season since 2015-16 with the New York Islanders.

It’s a fine deal for Hamonic, who will slot in behind Jakob Chychrun and Artem Zub on the team’s right side, likely in a third-pairing role. He still doesn’t provide a ton of value defensively, at least not compared to his heyday, and he likely won’t see anything more than sheltered minutes for the rest of his NHL career.

Hamonic was coming off a two-year, $6MM contract he signed with the Vancouver Canucks in 2021. This is the lowest-paying contract of his career, save for his entry-level deal.

Senators general manager Pierre Dorion offered a statement:

Travis is a key component of our group. He routinely sets a good example for our younger players with work ethic and accountability, his fearlessness and with a determination level that he seems to exceed each time he steps on the ice. He’s a leader with strong character and someone we’re very pleased to see returning.

He’ll be an unrestricted free agent once again in 2025, although not eligible for a 35+ contract, given his August birthday.

Day One Free Agent Recap: Pacific Division

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We wrap up our look at how teams fared over free agency’s opening weekend with the Pacific Division. Make sure to check back on our previous lists for the Atlantic, Metropolitan, and Central Divisions.

Anaheim Ducks

D Trevor Carrick (one year, two-way $775K)
F Alex Killorn (four years, $25MM, $6.25MM AAV)
D Radko Gudas (three years, $12MM, $4MM AAV)

Calgary Flames

*F Dryden Hunt (two years, two-way, $1.55MM, $775K AAV)
*D Colton Poolman (one year, two-way, $775K)
*D Jordan Oesterle (one year, $925K)
*F Martin Pospisil (one year, two-way, $775K)

*July 2 signing

Edmonton Oilers

D Noel Hoefenmayer (one year, two-way, $845K)
F Connor Brown (one year, $4MM w/ bonuses, $775K cap hit)
F Lane Pederson (two years, $1.55MM, $775K AAV)
F Drake Caggiula (two years, two-way, $1.55MM, $775K AAV)
*D Ben Gleason (two years, two-way $1.55MM, $775K AAV)

*July 2 signing

Los Angeles Kings

D Andreas Englund (two years, $2MM, $1MM AAV)
F Jaret Anderson-Dolan (one year, $775K)
F Mikhail Maltsev (one year, two-way, $775K)
G David Rittich (one year, $875K)
G Cam Talbot (one year, $2MM w/ bonuses, $1MM cap hit)
F Trevor Lewis (one year, $775K)
D Steven Santini (one year, two-way, $800K)
*D Joe Hicketts (one year, two-way, $775K)

*July 2 signing

San Jose Sharks

G Mackenzie Blackwood (two years, $4.7MM, $2.35MM AAV)
F Givani Smith (two years, $1.6MM, $800K AAV)
F Fabian Zetterlund (two years, $2.9MM, $1.45MM AAV)
F Ryan Carpenter (one year, two-way, $775K)
D Kyle Burroughs (three years, $3.3MM, $1.1MM AAV)
F Scott Sabourin (two years, two-way, $1.55MM, $775K AAV)

Seattle Kraken

D Jimmy Schuldt (one year, two-way, $775K)
F Marian Studenic (one year, two-way, $775K)
D Brian Dumoulin (two years, $6.3MM, $3.15MM AAV)
F John Hayden (one year, two-way, $775K)
*F Kailer Yamamoto (one year, $1.5MM)

*July 2 signing

Vancouver Canucks

F Teddy Blueger (one year, $1.9MM)
D Carson Soucy (three years, $9.75MM, $3.25MM AAV)
D Matt Irwin (one year, two-way, $775K)
G Zachary Sawchenko (one year, two-way, $775K)
D Ian Cole (one year, $3MM)
F Tristen Nielsen (two years, two-way, $1.9MM, $870K cap hit)
*D Akito Hirose (two years, two-way, $1.575MM, $787.5K cap hit)

*July 2 signing

Vegas Golden Knights

F Mason Morelli (two years, two-way, $1.55MM, $775K cap hit)
F Gage Quinney (two years, two-way, $1.55MM, $775K cap hit)
F/D Mason Geertsen (two years, two-way, $1.55MM, $775K cap hit)
*G Jiri Patera (one year, two-way, $775K cap hit)

*July 2 signing

Contract info courtesy of CapFriendly

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