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Free Agent Profile: Brian Elliott

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It would be fair to say Brian Elliott’s had a rather long and winding NHL career. Now 38 years old, he’s got quite the career resume for someone taken in the ninth round of the NHL Draft in 2003.

The Newmarket, Ontario native put up some okay numbers when he was breaking into the league with the Ottawa Senators in the late 2000s, but it wasn’t until he landed with the St. Louis Blues in free agency in 2011 that he became solidified as a more well-known NHL netminder.

He was coming off a rather conflicting 2010-11 season at the time. Despite starting a career-high 51 games between the Senators and Colorado Avalanche, his numbers were abysmal, especially for someone pegged as a starter – his .893 save percentage was well below the league average at the time, and he conceded more than 30 goals above what an average netminder would’ve allowed throughout the season.

That all changed once he landed in St. Louis, where he became a solid tandem netminder over the years with Jake Allen. While he never displayed the consistency necessary to be a high-end, full-time starter, he did earn Vezina consideration thanks to a couple of years (including his first in St. Louis) where he boasted above a .930 save percentage.

The days of Elliott being able to take over the crease like that are long gone, however. He hasn’t started more than 30 games since the 2017-18 campaign with the Philadelphia Flyers, and he’s posted a save percentage above .900 just once in the past four years.

His last season didn’t do much to inspire confidence that he could still compete at the highest level. Behind a slightly weakened but still stout Tampa Bay Lightning defense, Elliott put together a substandard season more in line with what we’ve seen from him since the Blues traded him to the Calgary Flames in 2016. In fact, he’s put together just one above-average season since departing the Blues – 2021-22 with Tampa, in which he started just 17 games but posted a respectable .912 save percentage.

There could still be some suitors for Elliott on the market. However, it’ll likely be limited to teams looking for insurance behind an injury-prone or unproven young backup. If he wants to keep lacing up the skates for an opportunity for NHL action, it’ll need to be with the understanding that a demotion to the AHL could be possible.

Stats

2022-23: 22 GP, 12-8-2, 2 SO, 3.40 GAA, .891 SV%
Career: 543 GP, 279-167-54, 45 SO, 2.57 GAA, .909 SV%

Potential Suitors

Elliott was linked to the Toronto Maple Leafs earlier this summer for a third-string role, but Toronto filled that gap on their depth chart earlier this month by signing Martin Jones to a one-year deal. While it won’t be Toronto, Elliott could still find a home for a similar type of role elsewhere.

Obviously, his most desired fit would be on a contending team looking for insurance, similar to how Jonathan Quick ended up in a Vegas Golden Knights jersey after last season’s trade deadline. He didn’t see any playoff action but was around the team and ended the season lifting his third Stanley Cup. Elliott is still looking for his first.

One of the suitors in the Eastern Conference who immediately jumps out is his old team in Tampa Bay, but it’s unlikely for a handful of reasons. First, it seems rather puzzling that Elliott would go un-signed this late in the summer only to return to Tampa, although a PTO with the Lightning could still be an option if he doesn’t have another offer by the time training camps roll around. Tampa also signed Jonas Johansson to a contract earlier this summer – prying him out of a deal in the Swedish Hockey League he’d signed prior, likely with the guarantee of NHL time behind Andrei Vasilevskiy. With the Lightning’s minor league tandem already seemingly set with Matt Tomkins and Hugo Alnefelt, Elliott’s been boxed out of the depth chart there.

The only team with playoff aspirations in the East with a glaring hole on their goalie depth chart is the New York Islanders. Their options are quite slim behind Ilya Sorokin and Semyon Varlamov, and 23-year-old Jakub Skarek is currently pegged as their third-string option without much development to showcase after four seasons in the minors. The organization’s had Cory Schneider play a veteran third-string role the past handful of seasons, and if Elliott is okay with a similar arrangement, he could see some limited playing time on the Island should a long-term injury affect either of Sorokin or the aging Varlamov.

His options open up considerably if he wanted to head to the Western Conference, however. The Golden Knights might be looking for a third-string netminder still, depending on how they feel about 24-year-old Jiri Patera being their first available call-up option behind Adin Hill and Logan Thompson. He could also be an option to return to Colorado if they don’t feel Justus Annunen is ready to take on a full-time backup role if called upon. Backup Pavel Francouz has a firm grip on the second NHL job behind Alexandar Georgiev, but he’s missed lengthy periods of time with injury since coming over to North America in 2018.

Projected Contract

Given he won’t be landing a full-time backup role anywhere, Elliott is looking, at best, at a one-year, one-way league-minimum deal for $775K with the expectation he could be placed on waivers to start the season, much like Jones in Toronto. If he does feel like he’s got enough in the tank to hold out for some more guaranteed opportunity, he could hunt for a PTO with a team in the coming days to try and compete for a backup role. This late into August, though, his options would be extremely limited as few teams are still looking to fill a bonafide backup spot on their depth chart.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Tyler Motte Changes Representation

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Now in the midst of a second-consecutive offseason where he’s remained a free agent deep into the summer, veteran forward Tyler Motte has made the decision to change representation. The versatile 28-year-old bottom-sixer had to wait until September last year to get a contract for 2022-23, and currently remains unsigned for the 2023-24 season.

Motte posted on social media announcing the change, and PuckPedia confirmed that Motte is now being represented by Pat Brisson, one of the NHL’s most prominent agents. Motte had previously been represented by Richard Evans of Wasserman Hockey.

Last season saw Motte take his first trip to the unrestricted free agent market of his career, and he did so on relatively strong footing.

He had been able to showcase his talents on a big stage that spring, skating in regular minutes on the fourth line of a New York Rangers team that made it all the way to the Eastern Conference Final.

There aren’t many better ways for defense-first fourth-liners to raise their profile leaguewide than to play difficult playoff minutes in one of the league’s biggest markets, and there was some belief that Motte’s performance for the Rangers would set him up nicely to cash in on a multi-year deal that summer.

We shared in that belief, projecting Motte to receive a four-year, $1.75MM AAV contract in our Top 50 Free Agents piece from 2022. We saw Motte valued by teams as a “very effective role player,” though we also noted that NHL clubs “generally don’t want to pay high price tags for fourth-liners.”

NHL teams were indeed reluctant to commit a multi-year contract to Motte, as he ended up lingering on the open market until the fall and ended up receiving just a one-year deal. In that flat cap world, it seemed teams weren’t willing to commit a multi-year deal to a fourth-line player without much offensive production, even despite Motte’s many positive qualities.

As outside observers, we don’t have a concrete understanding of why Motte has ended up on the market so long. We can speculate that the true level of interest in his services was potentially miscalculated by his representation (just as we made the same miscalculation in our free agency preview) but ultimately it will remain a mystery as to why Motte has found himself in this position for two consecutive years.

With that said, though, the fact that he’s made the choice to move on from an agent he has a longstanding relationship with echoes similar moves made by players such as John Klingberg and Vladimir Tarasenko.

In 2022, Klingberg was reportedly looking at a seven-year, $6MM or so AAV contract in free agency before he was ultimately forced to settle on a one-year $7MM guarantee. Many have credited Klingberg’s change in representation to frustration with how his free agency played out, and it’s possible Motte has made his own change due to a similar frustration.

As for what may lie in store for Motte and his new representatives, in our profile of his free agency completed earlier this month we said “it wouldn’t be surprising to see Motte sign for $775K or close to it.” Most of the additions we’ve seen at this stage of the summer are of the PTO variety, meaning it could be difficult for Motte to get any sort of meaningful financial commitment from a team beyond the league minimum.

Regardless of the issues Motte has had in free agency these past two years, he remains a legitimately effective fourth-line energy winger. Although his time with the Rangers this past spring didn’t result in the same kind of long playoff run he enjoyed in 2022, Motte did manage a healthy 10 points in 24 regular-season games, leading to a career-high final point total of 19.

He’s still right in the heart of his prime years, so it’ll be up to Brisson and CAA to find Motte the right place to play next season, a place where he can (assuming he signs a one-year deal) best showcase his talents for another potential trip to the open market next summer.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Free Agent Profile: Zack Kassian

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Zack Kassian had one of the lowest-scoring seasons we’ve seen in quite some time as he put up just two goals last season in 51 games with the Arizona Coyotes. This prompted Arizona to buy out the 32-year-old forward prior to free agency in a move that made sense, given the lack of production from the former 13th overall pick. Kassian lasted just a single season in the desert and never really seemed comfortable playing on a very bad Coyotes team.

This is Kassian’s first crack at free agency and unfortunately for him he is coming off a season in which he posted career lows in many statistical categories. As mentioned earlier, he had just two points on the season, and posted a -18. His hitting was way down, which is one of the facets of the game he typically excels in. Kassian threw just 32 hits in 51 games last season, a dramatic drop from the 158 he threw the year prior with the Edmonton Oilers in 58 games. It’s not uncommon for physical players to see a decline in their 30’s, but the decline generally isn’t that steep.

Kassian deserves a ton of credit for battling several off-ice issues and resurrecting his career when it looked like it could be in trouble. At one point in 2015 Kassian bounced from Vancouver to Montreal to Edmonton in less than six months and looked like he could be out of the league. But, to his credit, he turned it around and even managed to post career highs in 2019-20 when he potted 15 goals to go along with 19 assists in 59 games. This run of good play prompted the Oilers to sign Kassian to a four-year contract extension in January 2020 worth $3.2MM annually. Unfortunately for the club and the player, Kassian struggled through the pandemic shortened 2020-21 season and hasn’t regained his footing ever since. Over the past three seasons combined Kassian has posted just 10 goals and 16 assists in 136 games, a drastic decline from his 2019-2020 numbers. The other issue that will work against Kassian is that he is strictly a 5 on 5 player. He has never been a regular contributor on the power play and hasn’t been a regular part of a penalty kill since 2018-19.

In a normal cap world, Kassian would have played out the final season of his contract with a salary that is well below his cap hit but given how poor his play was Arizona opted to move on and spread out that cost over two seasons.

Despite his struggles last season, it is still likely that Kassian will get an opportunity when training camps open in a few weeks. Teams are always looking for physical players, especially ones who can take a regular shift and will play under a reduced cap hit. Kassian checks all those boxes, which is a good indication that someone will give the Windsor, Ontario native a look to see if he still has anything to offer.

Stats

2022-23: 51 GP, 2-0-0, -18 rating, 50 PIMS, 25 shots, 37.5% faceoffs, 38.4% CF, 9:09 ATOI
Career: 661 GP, 92-111-203, -55 rating, 913 PIMS, 798 shots, 31.0% faceoffs, 48.2% CF, 12:37 ATOI

Potential Suitors

Kassian is still chasing hockey’s ultimate prize, the Stanley Cup. And after spending a dozen years in the league, he would probably prefer to spend his time chasing a championship with a Stanley Cup contender. However, given his status as a fringe NHLer at the moment, he likely won’t have the opportunity to be choosey. That doesn’t mean he won’t have a suitor, but it could mean that he would be playing on a weaker team, or a team that has a borderline chance of making the playoffs. But anything can happen, and even players that are past their best before date can catch on with good teams when it is least expected.

Let’s start out West in Edmonton. Kassian found his game almost eight years ago when it looked like his career was hanging on by a thread. It was there that he turned his intensity and physicality into effective NHL minutes on a team that was competitive for most of his run there. Kassian brought an edge that the Oilers severely lacked and gave them an option that they could plug almost anywhere in their lineup. But that was then, and this is now, and Kassian isn’t that player anymore. His body has broken down, as per normal with physical players when they hit the wrong side of 30. But Kassian could still help Edmonton, and it feels like the Oilers are always looking for bodies up front. Kassian couldn’t play in Edmonton’s top-9, but he could be a could fill-in for their fourth line if they aren’t able to find help between now and the start of the regular season.

Sticking with the West, the Colorado Avalanche were riddled with injuries last season. So much so that it looked like they might miss the playoffs entirely, however, a late-season rally secured their spot in the round of 16. But it was there that they were physically dominated by the Seattle Kraken and ousted in an exhilarating seventh game. The Avalanche were one of the lightest-hitting teams in the NHL last season, which on the surface isn’t the big of a deal given how skilled they are. However, the regular season and the playoffs are two different things and Colorado didn’t have an answer for Seattle in the postseason and really missed some of the grit they lost when Nazim Kadri departed last summer. Now, Zack Kassian is far from the answer to that problem, but he can offer Colorado something that is in short supply in their group, and it wouldn’t cost them more than a contract slot and a league minimum contract.

Finally, in the East, one team that could use a depth physical forward is the Buffalo Sabres. Coincidently, the team that took Kassian in the first round of the NHL entry draft some 14 years ago. The Sabres have a competent fourth line at the moment with Tyson Jost centering Kyle Okposo and Zemgus Girgensons, but injuries happen (see Jack Quinn), and Kassian could provide insurance to their Sabres if they were to lose any additional depth up front. The Sabres were also a team that didn’t throw the body around all that often-last year and with the talent that they have up front, they could likely place Kassian into a role that wouldn’t overextend him and could allow him to perhaps resurrect his career once again.

Projected Contract

Kassian enters free agency at a time when his free agent stock is very damaged. And while he has his shortcomings, he still offers a rare combination of physicality mixed with a bit of skill and could find success when he is sheltered in the right situation.

At this point in his career Kassian would be lucky to get a one-way contract for the league minimum of $775K. The most likely outcome for him will be a PTO with a team that is looking to add a 13th forward that offers some sandpaper and can chip in on the fourth line when a regular falls out of the lineup. A role like that would allow Kassian to play to his strengths and would offer longer windows of recovery for an aging player who has been banged up from years of throwing his body around with reckless abandon.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Can The Pittsburgh Penguins Actually Sign Tomas Tatar?

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There aren’t many impact unsigned free agents remaining at this point in the offseason, but one name of note is forward Tomas Tatar. Tatar has been linked to several teams, including the Buffalo Sabres as an inexpensive replacement for the injured Jack Quinn. One team that popped up in the rumor mill last week was the Pittsburgh Penguins. Rob Rossi of The Athletic wrote that the Penguins were keenly interested but it all came down to whether Tatar would get a guaranteed contract offer elsewhere as the Penguins appeared to be offering a PTO for training camp in Pittsburgh with the expectation of a contract after. But can the Penguins realistically fit in another contract for a player coming off a season in which he scored 20 goals and 28 assists in 82 games?

In most off-seasons, the answer to that question would be an emphatic no. But the summer of 2023 has been unlike any other offseason. Players like Blake Wheeler have signed for less than $1MM annually. Matt Duchene took a one-year contract for $3MM despite being a year removed from topping 80 points, and Tatar remains unsigned despite providing consistent secondary scoring.

But all of this doesn’t necessarily mean the answer is a resounding yes, the Penguins would need to do some cap gymnastics to fit Tatar into the sliver of room they have under the salary cap ceiling. Currently, the Penguins have just north of $220K, which is obviously well below the NHL minimum.

Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas has said previously that he would use waivers as a means of becoming cap compliant, and the Penguins have plenty of players who could be placed on waivers to open up room for Tatar. Alexander Nylander and Rem Pitlick are two players that could be exposed and sent to the AHL to open up the room, but would that be enough to sign Tatar? The answer is a giant unknown at this time, but as we inch closer to training camp it becomes more and more possible.

Dan Kingerski of Pittsburgh Hockey Now explored another idea in an article as he wondered if a potential Jeff Carter trade would be possible. The 38-year-old London, Ontario native is in the final year of his contract with a cap hit of $3.125MM and is coming off a season in which he scored just 13 goals and 16 assists in 79 games and looked lost at times both offensively and defensively. Kingerski provides options in the article, the most interesting of which would have the Penguins retain 50% of Carter’s contract and staple a second-round pick to him to facilitate a move. While this scenario seems possible, the biggest caveat to a potential deal would be Carter’s full no-movement clause. Given all these moving parts, it seems unlikely any contending team would have room to take on even half of Carter’s cap hit and even less likely that Carter would waive his no-move to make it happen. Kyle Dubas has worked one miracle this summer in moving out Jeff Petry and Mikael Granlund for Erik Karlsson, but can he make another one happen?

Much like the Karlsson situation it feels like the longer this drags out the likelier it becomes the player ends up with the Penguins. But to make it happen Tatar is going to have to take a massive pay cut and perhaps accept just a one-year contract. A far cry from the $3.3MM annually that Daily Faceoff projected he would get on a three-year deal when free agency opened.

Free Agent Profile: Tyler Motte

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For the second year in a row, Tyler Motte finds himself unsigned more than a month into unrestricted free agency.  This is the case despite the fact that he fills a role that many contending teams often covet – someone who can play defensive minutes, kill penalties, and play with an edge (without getting into much penalty trouble) while chipping in a bit offensively.

Last summer, despite playing a regular role for the Rangers in the playoffs, it took until just before training camp for the 28-year-old to catch on somewhere when he inked a one-year, $1.35MM deal with Ottawa in mid-September.  The contract garnered him a small raise compared to his previous AAV.

Unfortunately for both Motte and the Senators, things didn’t go too well.  Missing 15 games with a broken finger midseason didn’t help but when he was in the lineup, he wasn’t able to bring each of the elements he typically does to the table.  Specifically, the offense wasn’t there as he managed just three goals in 38 games as part of a bottom-six group that underachieved.

That changed when the Rangers reacquired him prior to the deadline.  Already familiar with the way they play, Motte was able to get some of his scoring touch back, chipping in with five goals and five assists in 24 games down the stretch despite logging just 11 minutes a game.  He wasn’t able to hit the scoresheet in the playoffs but still filled that checking role.

At this point in his career, Motte is a well-known commodity; it isn’t as if there is much left in the way of hidden upside.  But what he provides is something that should result in interest from teams at some point over the coming weeks.

Stats

2022-23: 62 GP, 8-11-19, +3 rating, 6 PIMS, 109 shots, 118 hits, 45.7% CF, 12:34 ATOI
Career: 331 GP, 43-38-81, -19 rating, 82 PIMS, 512 shots, 773 hits, 44.0% CF, 12:52 ATOI

Potential Suitors

For a player like Motte, there are two different types of teams that make sense.  The first is a squad with playoff hopes that is looking to shore up their fourth line or 13th forward spot, aiming to find a small improvement within the margins.  The other is a team that wants one of their younger players to spend more time in the minors and wants that extra bit of depth to act as a buffer.

In the East, Toronto has looked to add some grit this offseason and Motte would continue down that path.  It would need to be a contract for the minimum to work but he’d fill the void that was opened up by them not re-signing Zach Aston-Reese.  His old team in New York could also use him back but with them needing as much cap space as possible to re-sign RFA Alexis Lafreniere, it would need to be a minimum-salary agreement as well.  Boston has rebuilt a good chunk of their bottom six and could stand to add more depth although they’re at a spot where they need to focus on trying to open up some flexibility first.  He’d also fit in on Washington’s fourth line but, you guessed it, they will be restricted to basically the minimum $775K offer as well.

Out West, Motte would give a boost to Nashville’s fourth line and they have enough cap space remaining that they won’t be restricted to just a minimum-salary offer.  Edmonton is expected to try to bring in some low-cost upgrades although they, too, will be restricted to offers for the minimum.  Colorado has a bit more wiggle room to work with from Gabriel Landeskog’s LTIR placement and after their fourth line struggled throughout last season, Motte would give them some reliability on that front.

Projected Contract

At this point of the summer, the bulk of the contracts handed out are going to be at or very close to the league minimum.  Motte hasn’t been in that situation the last few years and it wouldn’t be surprising if he’s holding out hope that a seven-figure deal could still be out there.  Assuming that doesn’t materialize within the next few weeks, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Motte sign for $775K or close to it.  If that happens, whoever gets him will be getting a small bargain.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Noah Gregor

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We’re at the point of free agency where the word bargain starts to come into play a little more.  The top-dollar deals aren’t there now but low-cost depth pieces are still available.  Playoff-bound teams will have their eye on veterans to fill specific roles.  But what about teams that are rebuilding?  Is there much left for them on the open market?

Noah Gregor is the type of player that could catch the eye of some of those teams.  Just 25, the winger has shown some physicality early in his career that would play well in the bottom six with enough offense to potentially make him an intriguing addition for someone.

Gregor is coming off his only full NHL season, one that saw him set a career-high in goals with ten despite missing 25 games.  The year before that, he had 23 points despite clearing waivers and spending seven weeks on an AHL assignment.  San Jose opted to try someone else in that role back in June, declining to tender him a qualifying offer of just under $1MM that would have also given him salary arbitration rights.

The consistency hasn’t always been there but he’s young enough that there is still room for improvement.  If that improvement happens, Gregor could be a quality under-the-radar pickup for someone in the coming weeks.  With two years of club control through restricted free agency, it could be more than a one-year pickup for whoever lands him.

Stats

2022-23: 57 GP, 10-7-17, -9 rating, 32 PIMS, 119 shots, 97 hits, 44.2% CF, 12:58 ATOI
Career: 178 GP, 25-26-51, -51 rating, 71 PIMS, 368 shots, 312 hits, 44.6% CF, 13:00 ATOI

Potential Suitors

From an NHL perspective, the teams that make the most sense for Gregor are ones that are rebuilding or are lacking some depth on the wing.  But if a team is eyeing Gregor as someone to try to sneak through waivers, just about anyone is a viable option.  For the purpose of this exercise, we’ll focus on the potential NHL openings.

In the East, Buffalo has a short-term roster opening with Jack Quinn out for the first few months due to a torn Achilles tendon.  They could fill that spot internally with someone like Lukas Rousek or they could turn to a player like Gregor that might be a better fit style-wise in a lower role on the depth chart.  Montreal moved out two wingers today in their portion of the Erik Karlsson trade and could view Gregor as a possible replacement for one of them to replenish some of that forward depth.  Washington has a short-term opening with Max Pacioretty likely out to start next season and Gregor could be a better fit for them over Joe Snively who wasn’t quite as impactful in his NHL duty last season compared to 2021-22.

Out West, Isac Lundestrom’s Achilles injury has opened up a spot up front with Gregor being a young enough fit to potentially be around beyond a single season.  Nashville’s current depth chart has some forwards that are relatively safe bets to get through waivers so adding Gregor could give them a small boost on the fourth line and bolster their depth.  If Minnesota is able to afford an extra forward (they need to re-sign Calen Addison first), Gregor would fit in a bottom six group that plays with a bit of an edge.

Projected Contract

Gregor is almost certain to be looking at a contract that is going to carry an NHL salary of $775K, the league minimum.  Depending on how long it takes for him to sign, there might even be a relatively pricey two-way portion.  But in terms of what’s still out there, there aren’t many players left with potentially a little more upside while being controllable for a couple more years.  That makes Gregor one of the more intriguing under-the-radar options left on the open market.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Adam Erne

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Since being drafted 33rd overall in the 2013 NHL, forward Adam Erne has been following General Manager Steve Yzerman around for his entire career. Yzerman was General Manager that originally drafted Erne with the Tampa Bay Lightning, and after Yzerman made his return to the Detroit Red Wings, one of his first moves was to acquire Erne for a fourth-round selection in the 2020 NHL Draft.

While playing for the Quebec Remparts of the QMJHL, Erne seemed to be one of the more promising power forwards in his class. Playing his last year in juniors during the 2015-16 season, Erne scored 41 goals and 45 assists in 60 games, also racking up 102 PIMS in total. Unfortunately for the Lightning and the Red Wings, those talents have yet to translate to the NHL, and likely never will given Erne’s career track record.

If it had not been for injuries, Erne likely would have recorded career totals in all facets of the game, but going on the injured reserve seven times during four seasons with Detroit, Erne could never keep up any momentum. This past year was so poor that the Red Wings decided to place Erne on waivers in February, and he spent the next month in the AHL.

Nevertheless, being able to put up 20 points in a year will always have value in the NHL, and Erne might benefit from playing on the fourth line of a competitive team. He will surely garner less than his $2.1MM salary over the last two years, making him an affordable option for all 32 teams in the NHL.

Stats

2022-23: 61 GP, 8-10-18, -12 rating, 21 PIMS, 55 shots, 37.5% CF, 13:23 ATOI
Career: 355 GP, 40-49-89, -59 rating, 171 PIMS, 436 shots, 45.9% CF, 12:21 ATOI

Potential Suitors

For any team to be taking a shot at Erne at this point in his career, the team must be confident that he is an immediate improvement to their bottom six forward core. Taking that into account, it would be reasonable to assume that the Colorado Avalanche, Lightning, and Washington Capitals could all be possible fits for Erne’s services.

As of right now, the Avalanche are projected to have 12 forwards in their opening night lineup, with both Ben Meyers and Fredrik Olofsson making up the bottom tier of their forward group. To say the least, given his track record, Erne would almost certainly be a much stronger producer for the Avalanche than either Meyers or Olofsson on the wing. Neither forward has sniffed 20 points up to this point in their careers, but to their credit, they have both played far fewer years than Erne. The only drawback to Erne joining the Avalanche is the fact that he does not profile as a player being able to fit into Colorado’s high-speed offensive approach.

Similarly to Colorado, a reunion with Tampa Bay makes a lot of sense for both parties. Logan Brown and Alex Barre-Boulet currently project as the bottom forwards in the Lightning’s lineup, and Erne would give the team an improvement in that area. Brown has yet to live up to his draft status as an 11th overall pick, and although being one of the best players in the AHL over the last several years, Barre-Boulet has not produced to the same level in the NHL.

Not the same degree as Colorado or Tampa Bay, Erne could be an interesting fit into the Capitals’ bottom six. Hopefully, Max Pacioretty will make his debut with the club at some point this season, giving the team some added forward depth. Before Pacioretty returns, Washington certainly has the capability to improve upon forward Joe Snively at the bottom of their lineup, and Erne would do just that. Snively has yet to score over seven points in the last two seasons while averaging approximately the same amount of ice time as Erne.

Projected Contract

If any team does commit to a full NHL contract for Erne, it will almost certainly be a one-year, $775k agreement. Due to his relatively low production, as well as his injury history over the last several seasons, unfortunately, Erne has lost all hope of any team being willing to go beyond that number. However, at this point in the offseason, it would be more than rare to see a team give a guaranteed contract to a player of his caliber. Erne is most likely headed for a professional tryout agreement in September, where he will have the responsibility of earning his roster spot during training camp.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Latest On Ethan Bear

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It has been an interesting few months for unrestricted free agent defenseman Ethan Bear.  After finishing out his season with Vancouver, he agreed to play for Canada at the Worlds despite not having a deal in place for 2023-24, a move that carried some risk.  While at that tournament, he re-aggravated an existing shoulder injury, resulting in him undergoing surgery.  That caused the Canucks to lower their offer to him and when a deal wasn’t agreed upon, they non-tendered him after the draft.

Since then, things have been quiet on his front with Bear not being linked to any teams through the first month of free agency.  Although he acknowledged to Postmedia’s Patrick Johnston that recovery is going well (perhaps even slightly ahead of schedule), the 26-year-old still isn’t going to be ready to play until sometime in December.  That certainly seems to have presented some challenges for him when it comes to finding a team to sign with.

With so many teams capped out, that will stand to limit the potential suitors Bear has right now.  While he’d be LTIR-eligible to start the season, if a signing team doesn’t have the cap room to carry him on the active roster now, they’d be in a tough spot where they’d need to open up room midseason to activate Bear.  The odd team has a willingness to do a move like this where they deal with the potential ramifications later but the role he’s likely to fill isn’t one where such a move could be justifiable.

Meanwhile, by the time he’s ready to return, there’s no guarantee that the teams that might have a spot for him now will still have one in December.  Others could be created by injuries but generally speaking, players unsigned that late into the year are settling for league minimum contracts (although Patrick Kane will almost certainly buck that trend at some point in 2023-24).

Bear indicated that a few teams have made inquiries thus far but clearly, an offer to his liking has yet to materialize.  He specifically stated a preference to return to Vancouver but was told by GM Patrik Allvin that they would need to clear up cap space for that to happen, a scenario that they are hardly alone in.  He fared relatively well with the Canucks after being acquired early last season, picking up 16 points in 61 games while averaging 18:32 per contest.

When healthy, Bear has shown over his five-year career that he is certainly an NHL-caliber defenseman, and as a right-shot player, he should be in more demand than it appears he has been thus far.  But his injury situation adds a wrinkle to those discussions and as a result, it looks like he’ll be on the open market for at least a little while longer even though his recovery might even be ahead of schedule.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Jaroslav Halak

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Jaroslav Halak has been on quite the journey since he led the Montreal Canadiens to back-to-back playoff upsets of the President’s Trophy winning Washington Capitals and defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins back in 2010. Halak was so effective in that run to the Conference Finals that many Canadiens fans wanted the team to keep him and trade his partner, Carey Price. Montreal opted to keep Price and shipped Halak to the St. Louis Blues for a package that included Lars Eller.

The early returns in St. Louis were good as Halak was solid in his first season with the Blues and even better in year two when he and Brian Elliott won the William M. Jennings Trophy for the fewest goals against in the league. That year Halak also garnered Vezina Trophy votes and ultimately finished sixth in voting as he sported a stellar .926 save percentage and a 1.97 goals-against average.

Eventually, the shine wore off in St. Louis and Halak lost the net to Elliot and was traded to the Washington Capitals midway through the 2013-14 campaign. He played well for the Capitals in limited action but the team ultimately missed the playoffs.

That summer, the Bratislava, Czechoslovakia native signed a four-year deal with the New York Islanders with an annual cap hit of $4.5M. The Islanders received excellent goaltending from Halak in his first season with the team as he went 38-17-4 with a .914 save percentage and a 2.43 goals-against average. In fact, through his first three years on Long Island Halak posted a save percentage above .910 every year, and kept his quality starts percentage over 50%, which means his save percentage was above the average more often than not.

It was in the final year of his contract with the Islanders that the cracks started to show in Halak’s game as he struggled in 2017-18 and posted the worst numbers of his career up to that point with a .908 save percentage and a 3.19 goals-against average.

Understanding that his days as a starter were likely ending, Halak signed a two-year deal with the Boston Bruins to back-up Tuukka Rask. Halak ended up playing in almost half of Boston’s games that year and outplayed Rask for large portions of the season in what was one of the best years of Halak’s career as he went 22-11-4 with a save percentage of .922 and a goals-against average of 2.34. Halak would win another Jennings Trophy the following year posting a .919 save percentage in what was another fantastic campaign for the netminder. That season in Boston, the 2019-20 campaign is the last time that Halak has posted a save percentage over .910.

Since the 2019-20 season, Halak hasn’t been able to be counted on to provide consistent play. Halak hasn’t started more than 25 games in the past three seasons, and although that isn’t entirely his fault thanks to injuries and a pandemic, he has been a tick below average when he has played.

At 38-years-old Halak and 17 seasons into his career, Halak has a lot of miles on his body, but he did indicate a month ago that he would like to continue playing. Halak reportedly talked about an extension with the New York Rangers prior to free agency, but ultimately the Rangers decided to sign Jonathan Quick to be their backup, which is a definite downgrade from Halak at this point. Halak needs just five wins to reach 300 and given his track record he should be presented soon with an opportunity to be a backup next season.

Stats

2022-23: 25 GP, 10-9-5, 2.72 GAA, .903 SV%, 1 SO
Career: 581 GP, 295-189-69, 2.50 GAA, .915 SV%, 53 SO 

Potential Suitors

At Halak’s age he probably isn’t looking to get pummeled with fifty shots every night which means we can likely filter out any rebuilding teams. At first glance, the New Jersey Devils and St. Louis Blues are two teams who have a need for depth in net.

The Devils are a team that feels like they are on the cusp of building something great, their defense is mobile and quick, they can push the pace and defend. Their forward group is skilled, fast, and comes at you in waves. But goaltending is their Achilles heel. The Devils have reportedly shown interest in several goaltending options including Connor Hellebuyck and John Gibson, but both of those goaltenders would require large commitments that the Devils might not want to make. But the Devils do need some help in the crease as they will once again enter this season relying on the tandem of Vitek Vanecek and Akira Schmid. Both goaltenders are relatively inexperienced, and while they backed the Devils to the second round of the playoffs last season, they might need an extra set of hands to get the club there again. Neither Schmid, nor Vanecek have a history of playing at a high level in the NHL for an extended period, which means that even a league-average goaltender like Halak could give a big boost to the team’s depth chart and offer up a solution should either man falter.

For the St. Louis Blues, they’ve made some interesting moves over the past year but haven’t done much to address their goaltending. It’s fair to say that the Blues goaltending was porous last season. Jordan Binnington, now in the third year of a six-year $36MM contract, hasn’t been good in two seasons posting a 45-41-10 regular season record, with a 3.24 goals-against average and a .897 SV%. If you take a deep dive into his numbers the picture gets even worse, in the last two seasons Binnington has posted a minus-26.6 GSAA, meaning that he gave up almost 27 goals more than the average NHL goalie would on the same number of shots. Couple this with St. Louis deciding to run with rookie Joel Hofer as a backup and you have a potential recipe for disaster for the Blues. No disrespect to Hofer, who had a terrific year with the Springfield Thunderbirds last season in the AHL, but he is inexperienced and is no guarantee to step up should Binnington falter for a third year in a row. Adding a netminder like Halak might give the Blues a good safety net in case one of their two goaltenders were to struggle or get hurt. He wouldn’t cost anything in the way of assets and could give the Blues some peace of mind.

Projected Contract

A month ago, it seemed like a sure thing that Halak would get a one-year NHL deal for a bit over $1MM. Now a month into free agency, I’m not so sure. I think that barring an off-season training injury before training camps open, Halak will have to settle for a number three role on a team with good depth in net, or a PTO. The experienced veteran would provide a good fallback option in a pinch and can give guidance to younger goalies who might be ahead of him on the depth chart.

I’d be surprised at this point if Halak got over $1MM on his next contract, however, with that being said, injuries can create urgency quickly, especially in net. Halak could be the first netminder who gets a call from a team with thin goalie depth after they get stung by the injury bug. Even if this were to happen, Halak is like to end up with a six-figure deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Paul Stastny

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The height of free agency ended a little less than a month ago and once again veteran center Paul Stastny finds himself without an NHL contract heading into next season. Unlike, most younger players Stastny probably isn’t too concerned about financial security as he has made nearly $85MM during his career (CapFriendly). Stastny has also been here before, having waited until August 23rd to sign last summer with the Carolina Hurricanes. Stastny may find himself unsigned late in the offseason once again but given that he is just a year removed from a 45-point season, there is reason to believe he will find an NHL job next year.

Stastny began his career as a perennial 70-point player on a talented but inconsistent Colorado Avalanche team that could never seem to get over the hump. He remained an important top-six piece as his career progressed, but as injuries started to impact his body, he began to descend into a 50–60-point scorer. By the time he signed a four-year $28MM contract as a free agent with the St. Louis Blues in 2014, he had settled in as a 40–50-point contributor that could post solid faceoff results and contribute in other ways. Stastny put up 40 or more points in each of his three and a half seasons with the Blues and was dealt to the Winnipeg Jets at the trade deadline in 2018.

After a cup of coffee in Winnipeg, Stastny signed with the Vegas Golden Knights in the summer of 2018. He spent two years with the team and failed to meet the expectations that came with his three-year $19.5MM contract. Stastny put up 80 points in 121 games with Vegas, but his production didn’t live up to his $6.5MM cap hit and he was traded back to Winnipeg in the 2020 offseason.

Stastny remained a solid center option in his two seasons in Winnipeg and continued to be a consistent 40-point threat despite being in his mid-30’s. Last summer, Stastny was coming off the aforementioned 45-point season and seemed like a good bet to sign a decent one-year deal, but as the height of free agency came and went, Stastny was left without a dance partner and eventually signed a one-year deal with the Carolina Hurricanes for $1.5MM. The deal was good value, although probably a tad below expectations for Carolina as Stastny centered both the third and fourth line at different points during the season.

At the end of the season, the Hurricanes opted to let Stastny go and that’s where we find the 37-year-old today, unsigned and coming off a season in which he put up nine goals and 13 assists in 73 games while averaging a career-low 11:52 of ice-time per game.

Stastny has had a terrific career up to this point, but he is still chasing that elusive Stanley Cup. He seems to have a knack for leaving organizations just as they are on the cusp of winning Lord Stanley as evidenced by his former clubs Colorado, St. Louis, and Vegas all winning championships shortly after his departure.

Now, the Quebec City, Quebec native is in the twilight of his career and is likely looking to sign with a contender. He showed last year that he could be a solid contributor on the bottom two lines and probably has more to give. Teams aren’t going to be lining up like they once were for Stastny’s services, but with two months left until opening night, there is plenty of reason to be optimistic that he will find a landing spot before the first week in October.

Stats

2022-23: 73 GP, 9-13-22, +4 rating, 16 PIMS, 80 shots, 57.6% faceoffs, 60.9% CF, 11:52 ATOI
Career: 1145 GP, 293-529-822, +43 rating, 500 PIMS, 2326 shots, 54.2% faceoffs, 52.2% CF, 18:27 ATOI

Potential Suitors

It seems that teams are always looking for help at center, which makes Stastny’s status a bit surprising this late in the offseason. While he is hardly the only pivot that is unsigned, he is probably the best of the leftovers. For Stastny, if he does choose to continue his career, he will be looking for a situation where he is a good fit. He never quite found a groove in Carolina, and despite playing on an excellent team, he did seem frustrated at times. He also fell out of favor with the coaching staff for brief periods, evidenced by his benching when the team opted to use Derek Stepan in his spot.

Let’s start in the East. The Buffalo Sabres have several players that are over the age of 35 and while Stastny isn’t going to push the team into the next stratosphere, he could be a nice stopgap for the team as they wait for more of their young prospects to develop into everyday NHLers. The Sabres also need to navigate the injury to Jack Quinn, and while this version of Stastny is no replacement for the youngster, he could be a part of a solution until he returns. Stastny would add a lot of experience and leadership to the Sabres dressing room and could also provide the team with a center who can win most of the draws he takes and will generally help his team control the play when he is on the ice.

In the West, the Edmonton Oilers still need a solid fourth-line center. The club does currently have a few options that they can slot into the lineup in a pinch, but ideally, they would have a pivot that can bring similar skills to that of Stastny. The Oilers don’t need a player that will drive the offense, but they do need capable bottom six players who can play a responsible brand of hockey and dictate play when they are on the ice. Stastny fits the bill having won 57% of his faceoffs last season, and having terrific possession numbers as Carolina controlled the puck 60% of the time Stastny was on the ice. His offense dried up last season, but Edmonton doesn’t need an offensive juggernaut, they need smart bottom six players that can chip in on offense from time to time.

Projected Contract

Many of the remaining unrestricted free agents are likely going be forced to take contracts that are around the league minimum of $775K, however, I don’t believe that will be the fate for Stastny. As mentioned earlier, he waited until the end of August last year and still secured a seven-figure AAV on a one-year deal. This year is different for Stastny though as he is coming off his lowest offensive output in his 17-year career, so a contract approaching what he made last season might be off the table. I would venture a guess that Stastny will get a one-year deal in the range of $1MM to $1.25MM which could also include a small bonus. Several teams have utilized bonuses for players over 35 years of age signing one-year contracts and Stastny could be the next in line to receive it. Regardless of where he winds up, he will likely be able to give the team that acquires him good value on a short-term deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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