Blues Notes: Steen, Shattenkirk, Hutton
When David Backes left the St. Louis Blues this offseason, they saw one of their longest tenured player and leaders depart without much fanfare. Backes slipped into free agency and landed a big deal with the Boston Bruins to work down in their lineup and give them some secondary scoring and two-way play. With Backes gone, the Blues decided to lock up one of their other cornerstone forwards, giving Alex Steen a four-year extension on Friday.
As Matt Larkin of The Hockey News opines in his latest column, it was Backes’ departure that made it necessary to lock up Steen and not completely turn the keys over to the new wave of St. Louis stars (namely Vladimir Tarasenko and Jaden Schwartz). To do it, they may have overpaid slightly. Larkin emphasizes Steen’s checkered injury history when discussing the terms, and he’s right to do so. Steen hasn’t played in 80+ games since 2006-07 when he was with the Maple Leafs, and indeed has only suited up for more than 70 twice in his eight-year Blues career.
- Kevin Shattenkirk was going to be traded. There were no doubts in his mind that at the draft or during free agent frenzy he’d be on the move out of St. Louis. It just made too much sense to everyone involved. As Louie Korac of NHL.com writes however, Shattenkirk didn’t get dealt and is very excited about it. “The grass isn’t always as greener. It’s a cliché, but it kind of fits in this sense. Don’t just leave to leave, make sure that it’s a good fit for you. St. Louis has been a great fit ever since I stepped foot here, ” Shattenkirk says, when talking about the potential trade. He also notes that being given the alternate-captain role for this upcoming season (the Blues named Alex Pietrangelo their newest captain) was a huge moment for him, as he’d been dreading a phone call from GM Doug Armstrong during the trade rumors. Even though he wasn’t dealt this summer, don’t think the rumors will go away – an elite talent on an expiring contract is exactly the type of player that moves at the trade deadline.
- When the Blues signed Jake Allen to a huge extension, and dealt Brian Elliott to the Flames they needed a new full-time backup for the upcoming season. Carter Hutton, the man who eventually was given that job, says it was a no-brainer to come to St. Louis. After three years with Nashville, the 30-year old backup puts it simply: “It’s one of those things. If you can’t beat ’em, join ’em.” Hutton has faced the Blues six times in his career and is 0-2-3 with an .882 save percentage and 3.42 GAA.
Compelling RFA Cases For 2017: Wennberg, DeHaan, Zibanejad
Jacob Trouba, Johnny Gaudreau and Nikita Kucherov highlight a strong and deep group of restricted free agents that remain unsigned at the moment. While they will each ultimately cash in and receive substantial contracts for the 2016-17 campaign and likely beyond, their status as restricted free agents has certainly complicated their respective negotiation processes.
Next summer, another quality group of players are set to hit restricted free agency, unless they can agree to terms on a new deal prior to the 2017-18 league year. In a series of posts, Pro Hockey Rumors will profile the top pending 2017 RFAs and examine what kind of contract they could elicit assuming they put up a strong performance during their platform year. Today we continue in the Metro.
Alexander Wennberg (Columbus) – Wennberg was the Blue Jackets first-round pick in 2013, selected 14th overall. He debuted in the NHL during the 2014-15 season and finished with 20 points in 68 contests. He bumped his production up significantly in year two, recording 40 points in 69 games and flashing top-six potential.
Wennberg is more playmaker than goal scorer as his career 4-to-1 assist-to-goal ratio suggests. Washington’s Marcus Johansson posted similar career numbers through the expiration of his ELC with 33 goals and 62 assists in 183 contests; good for a points-per-game rate of 0.52. Johansson would sign a two-year contract worth $4MM total following the 2012-13 campaign.
The career production numbers between the two pivots should look similar given Wennberg tallies 40-plus points in close to a full slate of games in 2016-17 and would therefore be looking at a bridge deal right around the $2MM mark annually. Given Johansson’s second contract will be four years old, inflation could take that figure closer to $2.5MM per year. A longer term would appear unlikely as the Jackets will still have several inflated contracts on the books, including those of Scott Hartnell, Nick Foligno, Jack Johnson and Brandon Dubinsky.
Calvin de Haan (New York Islanders) – Now 25, de Haan is now at the age many defensemen peak in terms of production. Originally the 12th overall selection in the 2009 draft, de Haan has already established himself as one of the Islanders best defenders and will once again fill a spot in the club’s top-four. If he can stay healthy for a full slate of games and perhaps contribute a touch more in the offensive end, de Haan could set himself up for a nice raise on the $1.97MM AAV his current contract calls for.
Teammate Travis Hamonic, drafted by the Islanders in the second-round in 2008, is a bit more prolific offensively but should help us gauge de Haan’s potential value as a top-four defender. Upon the expiration of his ELC, Hamonic signed a seven-year, $27MM deal with an AAV of $3.857MM. By that time, Hamonic was already averaging better than 22 minutes of ice time and 0.33 points-per-game. If the two parties explore a long-term arrangement, it’s likely de Haan can point to Hamonic’s deal as a comparable.
Mika Zibanejad (New York Rangers) – As part of their overall team commitment to get younger and quicker this summer, the Rangers acquired the 23-year-old pivot from Ottawa in exchange for fellow center, Derick Brassard. Zibanejad, the Senators first-round pick in 2011, sixth overall, has steadily improved his offensive production since debuting as a regular during the strike-shortened 2012-13 campaign. Last season was Zibanejad’s best, with the Swede compiling 21 goals and 51 points in 81 contests.
A player with a similar pedigree, former high first-round choice and relatively consistent point-producer, Nazem Kadri, inked a six-year extension worth $27MM in April and that deal should serve as a reasonable target for Zibanejad. Kadri has averaged 0.59 points-per-game over the three seasons prior to his extension – 134 points in 227 games. Zibanejad, meanwhile, has averaged 0.57 points-per-contest the last three years – 130 points in 230 games.
Zibanejad is entering the final season of the two-year bridge deal he signed with Ottawa, paying the five-year veteran $2.625MM per season. A repeat of his 2015-16 performance this upcoming season should give Zibanejad a good chance to match the level of Kadri’s extension. But, if Kadri takes the next step in his development and makes a push for the 60-point threshold, he could see his value escalate to $5MM and up per season.
Snapshots: Lovejoy, Bennett, Canucks, Lombardi
It’s not uncommon for players to reunite with former coaches and/or a general manager who has previously acquired that player at a previous stop. There is familiarity between coach and player and in the case of GMs, a belief in the abilities, sometimes untapped, of the player. That scenario played out this summer when the New Jersey Devils brought in two former Penguins, defenseman Ben Lovejoy in free agency and winger Beau Bennett via trade, reuniting them with general manager Ray Shero and head coach John Hynes. As Andrew Gross writes in his Fire and Ice blog, those additions should have come as no surprise to anyone familiar with the situation.
Shero spent eight seasons at the helm in Pittsburgh, selecting Bennett in the first-round of the 2010 entry draft. Clearly Shero still believes in Bennett’s upside as evidenced by the Devils giving up a third-round pick – a substantial asset – to Pittsburgh in exchange for the winger. Bennett scored six goals and 12 points in 33 regular season games in Pittsburgh in 2015-16 but appeared in just one postseason game as rookies Conor Sheary and Bryan Rust passed him on the team’s depth chart.
The Devils finished last in the NHL in goals scored during the 2015-16 season, and even after adding LW Taylor Hall in the summer, the team could use more scoring depth. Bennett hopes to be able to provide that and reward Shero’s faith in him.
Lovejoy cited the presence of Hynes as instrumental in his decision to sign with the Devils in the offseason.
“(Hynes) was my defense coach when I played in Wilkes-Barre. I played for him for a full season. He knows my game. It’s not going to be a surprise here. He knows exactly what he’s getting. That’s the reason I’m here. I know the coaching staff through Wilkes-Barre when Ray and (assistant GM) Tom (Fitzgerald) were running the organization the first time I was in Pittsburgh. Those are guys I trust and know. I’m here because they trust me.”
The veteran of eight NHL seasons will be asked to add leadership and experience to a young-ish defense corps that only has one other defender – Andy Greene – over the age of 26. Lovejoy doesn’t bring much of an offensive game to the table but has generally been a responsible blue liner and has posted a negative plus-minus rating just once in his career.
Elsewhere around the NHL:
- GM Jim Benning and head coach Willie Desjardins are well aware the team has some ground to cover if they want to make the playoffs in 2016-17 after missing the postseason by 12 points this past season. But as Derek Jory of the Canucks official team site reports, both manager and coach are cautiously optimistic about the upcoming campaign. Desjardins: “We have more depth at every position and I feel we’re stronger at every position.” Benning, for his part, believes adding Loui Eriksson and Erik Gudbranson this summer along with a return to health for center Brandon Sutter will bring needed leadership as well as depth to the club: “We’ve added more depth to our group and adding Loui Eriksson, who I feel is a good player, a healthy Brandon Sutter, adding Erik Gudbranson; we’ve added some leadership in that room to help our young players along, so I’m real excited.”
- Two days after watching Team USA elimination from medal contention at the World Cup of Hockey, the man ultimately responsible for assembling the team, Kings GM Dean Lombardi, defended his roster construction strategy: “We’ve got some darn good players, but the reality is that matchup on a skill basis, if you want to go head-to-head and play a skill game, your odds of winning that game when you look at those matchups is not very good.” While Lombardi is likely correct in his assertion that Team USA wouldn’t have been able to match the skill and talent of the Canadiens no matter who they brought to the tournament, the choice to emphasize grit and heart ignores the NHL’s recent shift to a quicker game that values speed over other traits. Of course we’ll never know whether a Team USA roster including Tyler Johnson, Kyle Okposo, Kevin Shattenkirk and Phil Kessel – for example – would have been better equipped to beat Canada, but it’s clear they couldn’t have done any worse.
Compelling RFA Cases For 2017: Johansen, Parayko, Teravainen
Jacob Trouba, Johnny Gaudreau and Nikita Kucherov highlight a strong and deep group of restricted free agents that remain unsigned at the moment. While they will each ultimately cash in and receive substantial contracts for the 2016-17 campaign and likely beyond, their status as restricted free agents has certainly complicated their respective negotiation processes.
Next summer, another quality group of players are set to hit restricted free agency, unless they can agree to terms on a new deal prior to the 2017-18 league year. In a series of posts, Pro Hockey Rumors will profile the top pending 2017 RFAs and examine what kind of contract they could elicit assuming they put up a strong performance during their platform year. Today we finish with the Central Division and move to the Metro.
Ryan Johansen (Nashville) – In Ryan Johansen, the Predators finally have that elusive #1 center they have lacked since the organization’s inception nearly two decades ago. In a rare “hockey trade” that benefited both parties, Nashville acquired Johansen from Columbus in exchange for Seth Jones, a potential franchise defenseman and something the Blue Jackets have sorely needed.
Johansen has tallied at least 60 points in each of the last three seasons and scored a career-best 71 as a 22-year-old during the 2014-15 campaign. On the downside, his goal scoring output has decreased from a career-high 33 in 2013-14 to 26 the following season and to just 14 in 2015-16. That’s likely the direct result of a shooting percentage of just 7.6%, a figure which was more than five points below the combined shooting percentage the two previous seasons. Simply converting shots at his normal rate would have resulted in a 24 – 25 goal campaign.
The Predators have done a marvelous job of locking up their core pieces to bargain long-term deals. Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi, Craig Smith and Mattias Ekholm have all recently inked extensions with Nashville at AAVs below what each player could have received on the open market. The trade-off for higher salaries during RFA years is cost-certainty and buying out free agent years below market value. Expect Nashville to employ the same strategy with Johansen.
Sean Monahan and Nathan MacKinnon have each established themselves as 60-point producers and received extensions with an AAV in excess of $6MM. Aleksander Barkov, coming off a career-best 59-point season, signed a six-year, $35.4MM deal with Florida. All three, however, were coming off their ELCs while Johansen is entering the final season of his second contract. That means any long-term deal would buy out more free agent seasons and typically that tends to be more expensive. Based on the comparable deals and his proximity to free agency, a long-term contract for Johansen could well approach or even reach $7MM annually.
Colton Parayko (St. Louis) – Parayko came out of nowhere to earn a regular job on the Blues blue line and posted a solid scoring line of 9-24=33 in 79 contests as a rookie. He boasts a hard shot from the point and tremendous size at 6-foot-6 and 226 pounds. Currently, Parayko is skating in the World Cup as a member of Team North America, flashing his abilities on the international stage.
With only a single season of NHL experience, gauging Parayko’s potential value is difficult. However, if he approximates his 2015-16 production levels this upcoming season, the four-year, $19.5MM contract awarded to Sami Vatanen by the Ducks could prove to be a reasonable comparable.
Vatanen posted campaigns of 37 and 38 points in 2014-15 and 2015-16 respectively before inking his current deal. Like Parayko, Vatanen is also a right-handed defenseman, which is more difficult to find than their counterparts on the left side.
St. Louis could counter with Ryan Ellis as a comparable. Ellis signed a five-year, $12.5MM contract in October of 2014 following a 27-point campaign with the Predators. But most would argue Ellis is worth more than that AAV and consequently Parayko would be too. It’s also possible the Blues would prefer to go with a bridge contract with a lower AAV than Parayko would be able to get on a long-term deal.
Teuvo Teravainen (Carolina) – The Hurricanes took advantage of Chicago’s salary cap woes and in exchange for agreeing to take on the final season of Bryan Bickell‘s $4MM-a-year-deal, were rewarded with the skilled Teravainen. Much was expected from the young Finn following the 2014-15 postseason that saw Teravainen record 10 points in 18 games as the Hawks won their third Stanley Cup in six seasons. While a 35-point campaign as a 21-year-old is solid, Teravainen’s skill suggests there is even more scoring potential.
It makes sense to stick with the Hurricanes when looking for a comparable since doing so offers insight to how the club values their RFAs. Earlier this summer, Carolina agreed to a six-year, $24MM extension with Swedish center Victor Rask. Rask was coming off a breakout campaign which saw the 23-year-old pivot post career-highs in both goals (21) and assists (27). More importantly, his first NHL season mirrored Teravainen’s in terms of production as Rask netted 11 goals and 33 points in 80 games for the Canes in 2014-15. If Teravainen follows the same path and boosts his offensive production into the 45-point range, a contract similar to that of Rask’s would seem a safe bet.
Atlantic Division Notes: Lupul, Marchand, Galchenyuk
TSN’s Frank Seravelli reports that Joffrey Lupul is rumored to have failed his pre-season physical and expects to start the NHL season on injured reserve. The oft-injured Maple Leafs forward only played in 46 games last year, scoring 11 goals and 3 assists.
Lupul has faced a variety of injuries in his career, but none more severe than his back issues which have sidelined him for significant periods of time. When healthy, Lupul is an excellent contributor, but his repeated injuries often derail successful campaigns.
Lupul began his Maple Leafs career with a bang, netting 45 goals and 105 points in his first 110 contests spread out over parts of three seasons in Toronto after a 2011 deadline trade with Anaheim. His strong play led to a massive five-year contract extension worth $26.25MM in total despite the fact the skilled forward had seen action in no more than 66 games in a single season since 2008-09. Unfortunately for both parties, Lupul has missed nearly a full season’s worth of games (76 in total) since inking that extension and has produced just 0.46 points-per-game during that time.
The Maple Leafs are currently over the cap by $827K, but moving Lupul to LTIR will free up $5.25MM in space. Assuming Stephane Robidas also starts the season on LTIR, the Leafs go from slightly over the cap to over $8MM under the cap. The Leafs will have the option of freeing up additional space by placing Nathan Horton on LTIR as well, which would further lower their overall cap commitment to around $60MM.
Lupul was originally the seventh overall pick in the 2002 NHL entry draft, chosen by the Anaheim Ducks. Ironically, he has twice been included in trades involving Chris Pronger, first going from Anaheim to the Oilers in exchange for the Hall of Fame defenseman, then returning to the Ducks as part of a package that saw Pronger head to Philadelphia. Toronto would acquire Lupul and Jake Gardiner from Anaheim as part of a trade for veteran blue liner Francois Beauchemin.
More from the Atlantic Division:
- Joe Haggerty joined local Boston sports talk show, Toucher and Rich, and discussed Brad Marchand‘s pending free agency. Marchand, of course, ranked 6th in the NHL in goals scored in 2015-16, tallying a career high 37. He is currently playing on what many consider to be the best line in the World Cup, skating on the left of all-world pivot Sidney Crosby with Bruins teammate Patrice Bergeron on the right. Haggerty opines that the Bruins need to lock up the agitating winger before he hits the free agent market, suggesting it will take a seven-year contract with an AAV of $7MM per season. He also listed the Penguins as a potential suitor should Marchand make it to free agency. Haggerty cites the fact both Marchand and Crosby are originally from Nova Scotia and that the success the two players are experiencing at the World Cup might prompt an impassioned plead to Penguins management from their best player to go get Marchand. Of course while Marchand might be getting a glimpse of how fun it might be to play with Crosby every day, he’s also reminded of just how good playing with Bergeron is.
- It appears the Montreal Canadiens have anointed Alex Galchenyuk as the team’s #1 center, with head coach Michel Therrien saying he plans to start the talented American on the top line with Max Pacioretty and Brendan Gallagher, as Stu Cowan of the Montreal Gazette reports. Galchenyuk, who has moved back-and-forth between wing and center since breaking into the league in 2012-13, may have finally earned the trust of the coaching staff on the heels of a strong 30-goal campaign, which included netting 18 over the team’s final 27 games. Veteran center Tomas Plekanec will then assume the role of #2 pivot and is expected to have new offseason additions Andrew Shaw and Alexander Radulov on his wings.
*Mike Furlano contributed to this post.
Compelling RFA Cases For 2017: Panarin, Faksa, Niederreiter
Jacob Trouba, Johnny Gaudreau and Nikita Kucherov highlight a strong and deep group of restricted free agents that remain unsigned at the moment. While they will each ultimately cash in and receive substantial contracts for the 2016-17 campaign and likely beyond, their status as restricted free agents has certainly complicated their respective negotiation processes.
Next summer, another quality group of players are set to hit restricted free agency, unless they can agree to terms on a new deal prior to the 2017-18 league year. In a series of posts, Pro Hockey Rumors will profile the top pending 2017 RFAs and examine what kind of contract they could elicit assuming they put up a strong performance during their platform year. We move on to the Central Division.
Artemi Panarin (Chicago) – The 2015-16 Calder Trophy recipient can set himself up for a monster payday with another 30-goal, 70-point campaign in 2016-17. Panarin surprised many by quickly acclimating to North America and putting up huge offensive numbers right away. He kicked off the season with a goal in game one against the Rangers and remained consistent throughout the campaign finishing just one month – February – with fewer than 10 points.
The first name that comes to mind as a potential comparable is Vladimir Tarasenko, who netted 37 goals and totaled 73 points before receiving an eight-year extension from St. Louis with an AAV of $7.5MM. Another possibility would be Filip Forsberg, who averaged 30 goals and nearly 64 points in each of the two full seasons prior to inking his new $6MM-a-year deal.
As they do every summer, seemingly, Chicago will be confronted with a cap crunch and will be looking to try to save as much money as possible on Panarin’s next contract. A trade is always a possibility, as they did with Brandon Saad, but it’s hard to imagine the Hawks dealing away two dynamic young talents just two years apart. Best guess is Chicago pushes for something closer to $6MM per on a long term deal and Panarin’s camp asking for something closer to $7MM.
Radek Faksa (Dallas) – Ordinarily, a five-goal, 12-point rookie debut wouldn’t generate much interest but with another season to go before reaching restricted free agency, and all of the offensive firepower the Stars have accumulated, it’s possible the big and skilled Faksa enjoys a real breakout campaign in 2016-17. Faksa is 22, set to turn 23 in January. He’s at an age where players tend to hit their stride and with well over 100 professional games on his resume, Faksa now has invaluable experience to go along with his skill.
The other factor that will make this a potentially interesting negotiation is the Stars cap situation. The team should have around $25MM in available space but with only 11 players signed for 2017-18, the Stars will have to be judicious with their spending. A big sophomore campaign for Faksa will complicate matters for the Stars and their ability to replace other veteran players likely to depart after the season.
At this point, the best guess is likely a bridge deal for Faksa. Even presuming a productive 2016-17 season, he won’t have much of a track record to bank on. Depending on the quality of Faksa’s 2016-17 campaign, a contract comparable to the one-year deals inked by Zemgus Girgensons or Mikhail Grigorenko – for $1.15MM and $1.3MM respectively – could be a fair compromise. Girgensons had a solid 2014-15 season, scoring 15 goals and 30 points before struggling to an 18-point year in 2015-16. Grigorenko posted a scoring line of 6-21=27 for Colorado this past season as a 22-year-old.
If Faksa enjoys a better platform year, then perhaps the two-year, $5.5MM pact J.T. Miller and the Rangers settled on this summer is something the Czech center can shoot for. Miller bested his previous career highs in goals by 12 and points by 20 during the 2015-16 campaign and earned roughly a 300% bump in pay as a result. Faksa has the talent and may get the opportunity in Dallas to post that same type of breakout performance for the Stars.
Nino Niederreiter (Minnesota) – Niederreiter has quietly put together consecutive 20-goal campaigns and established a career best with 43 points in 2015-16 for the Minnesota Wild. He is entering the final season of a two-year, bridge contract that comes with an AAV of $2.67MM.
Niederreiter’s previous two seasons compare favorably to those of New York Rangers winger Chris Kreider. Kreider has tallied back-to-back 21-goal campaigns and combined for 89 points over that span. The big Swiss winger, on the other hand, has totaled 44 goals and 80 points over the last two years. Kreider finished his two-year bridge deal – AAV of $2.475 – and signed a four-year contract worth $18.5MM. That might represent a solid blue print for Niederreiter’s next pact.
Compelling RFA Cases For 2017: Pearson, Donskoi, Horvat, Gudbranson
Jacob Trouba, Johnny Gaudreau and Nikita Kucherov highlight a strong and deep group of restricted free agents that remain unsigned at the moment. While they will each ultimately cash in and receive substantial contracts for the 2016-17 campaign and likely beyond, their status as restricted free agents has certainly complicated the negotiation process.
Next summer, another quality group of players are set to hit restricted free agency unless they can agree to terms on a new deal prior to the 2017-18 league year. In a series of posts, Pro Hockey Rumors will profile the top pending 2017 RFAs and examine what kind of contract they could elicit assuming they put up a strong performance during their platform year. Today we finish up in the Pacific Division.
Tanner Pearson (Los Angeles) – Pearson is a solid, two-way winger who has seen a fair amount of action on a line with Jeff Carter and Tyler Toffoli affectionately referred to as “That 70’s Line.” He tallied 15 goals and 36 points in 2015-16 and has a scoring rate of 0.43 Pts/Game in 146 career contests. Pearson is currently slated to make $1.4MM in the second and final season of a two-year deal.
Pearson’s career production is similar to that of two recent RFA signees: J.T. Miller of the Rangers and Cody Eakin of the Stars. Miller posted career-best totals of 22 goals, 21 assists and 43 points in 2015-16 and has a career scoring rate of 0.52 Pts/Game. Eakin has a career Pts/Game rate of 0.45 and has scored at least 35 points in each of the last three seasons as Dallas’ third center.
Statistically, Pearson would seem to match up well with Eakin meaning another season of 35 – 40 points could line him up to receive something similar to the four-year, $15.4MM $3.875MM AAV) deal Eakin is set to play under beginning this season. But if the Kings and Pearson can’t get a long-term deal done, it’s possible the two-year, $5.5MM ($2.75MM AAV) bridge contract of Miller works as a comparable.
Joonas Donskoi (San Jose) – Donskoi was a surprisingly steady producer for the Sharks and played a key role in helping San Jose reach the Stanley Cup Finals for the first time in franchise history in 2015-16. Given his first taste of North American pro hockey, the Finnish winger contributed 36 points in 76 contests and added another 12 points in the playoffs. Donskoi seemed to find chemistry with Logan Couture this past season and if given another opportunity to play on the skilled pivot’s wing, he could cross the 40-point plateau in 2016-17.
Production-wise, Donskoi would appear to be close enough to Pearson’s level that the Miller and Eakin contracts should serve as fair comparisons. Another possible comparable who would appear to set the floor of Donskoi’s expectations is Michael Raffl, who after seasons of 28 and 31 points, respectively, inked a three-year, $7.05MM ($2.35MM AAV) pact with the Flyers. Both started their professional careers in Europe and jumped to the NHL in their mid-20’s. If Donskoi’s production takes a step back from his rookie level, he could be looking at a new deal in the same range as Raffl’s.
Bo Horvat (Vancouver) – After a solid debut campaign as a 19-year-old rookie two years ago with the Canucks, Horvat bumped his production up from 25 points to 40 points as a sophomore in 2016-17. He has the skill and ability to improve his numbers even further in his third season if given an opportunity for top-six ice time.
If Horvat can take the next step to 50 points or so, a new contract could be similar to that of Nick Bjugstad’s in Florida. After netting 38 points in his first full campaign, Bjugstad tallied 43 in 201-15 and was rewarded with a six-year, $24.6MM deal which took effect upon the expiration of his ELC. Both players are versatile enough to play up and down the lineup and fill a variety of roles. The Canucks will have to be frugal, however, as they already have more than $52MM tied up in 14 players for 2017-18 leaving roughly $20MM or so – depending on where the cap ceiling falls – to re-sign several key RFAs. It’s possible they push for a less expensive bridge deal as a result.
Erik Gudbranson (Vancouver) – The Canucks took some criticism when they dealt 19-year-old Jared McCann, the team’s first-round pick in 2014, and two draft choices for Gudbranson this past May. It’s not that Gudbranson isn’t a good player; it’s more that the Canucks aren’t likely to be a playoff squad in 2016-17 and shouldn’t be sacrificing controllable young talent for a player who is set to get pretty expensive.
Gudbranson inked a one-year pact worth $3.5MM soon after the trade and will again be a RFA after the upcoming season. With five years of NHL experience already under his belt, Gudbranson will be just two seasons away from unrestricted free agency following the 2016-17 campaign. That means any long-term extension is likely going to buy out multiple free agent seasons.
Gudbranson is a physical, defense-first blue liner, who doesn’t contribute much offense. His single-season career-high in points scored is just 13. Obviously Gudbranson will be looking for a raise on his $3.5MM salary. One potential comparable for Gudbranson is Adam Larsson, who signed a six-year, $25MM extension and like the Vancouver defender is known more for his defense than his offense. But Larsson’s deal took effect on the conclusion of his ELC and only bought out a single free agent year.
A closer comparable may be Canadiens defenseman Alexei Emelin, who is also a defense-first blue liner with a career high in points of just 17. He is in the midst of a four-year deal with an AAV of $4.1MM.
With most teams favoring mobile, puck-moving defenders over tough, physical defensive defenseman like Gudbranson, it will be interesting to see what value they place on the big blue liner.
Compelling RFA Cases For 2017: Pacific Division, Part I
Jacob Trouba, Johnny Gaudreau and Nikita Kucherov highlight a strong and deep group of restricted free agents that remain unsigned at the moment. While they will each ultimately cash in and receive substantial contracts for the 2016-17 campaign and likely beyond, their status as restricted free agents has certainly complicated the negotiation process.
Next summer, another quality group of players are set to hit restricted free agency unless they can agree to terms on a new deal prior to the 2017-18 league year. In a series of posts, Pro Hockey Rumors will profile the top pending 2017 RFAs and examine what kind of contract they could elicit assuming they put up a strong performance during their platform year. Today we start in the Pacific Division.
Anthony Duclair (Arizona) – “The Duke” is coming off a solid rookie season, scoring 20 goals and posting 44 points in 81 games for the Coyotes. Arizona acquired Duclair and a couple of draft picks from the New York Rangers at the 2015 deadline in the Keith Yandle deal. Duclair, considered a first-round talent in his draft year, tumbled into the third-round following an injury-shortened 2014-15 campaign in the QMJHL.
Another 20+ goal campaign could propel Duclair’s earning potential into the $4MM range annually. Mike Hoffman, who has scored 27 and 29 goals respectively the last two seasons, inked a four-year deal with an AAV of more than $5MM per season. On the heels of back-to-back 21-goal campaigns, Chris Kreider also landed a four-year pact, his worth $18.5MM in total. Kreider was coming off his second contract, Hoffman his ELC. Based on experience, Hoffman would be the better comparable but the goal-scoring numbers are likely to match up better with Kreider. Either way, if Duclair can match or exceed his 2015-16 production this season, a $4MM+ AAV on a new contract would be realistic.
Sam Bennett (Calgary) – Bennett, the fourth overall selection in the 2014 entry draft, posted an 18-18=36 scoring line as a rookie with the Flames in 2015-16, while playing the entire campaign as a 19-year-old. Along with the aforementioned Gaudreau and Sean Monahan, Bennett is part of a strong nucleus of young talent the Flames are counting on to lead the club into Stanley Cup contention.
Assuming an uptick in performance given Bennett now has a full year of NHL experience under his belt, it will be interesting to see how the Flames handle his restricted free agency. They’ve already locked up Monahan to a rich long-term extension and seem to want to do the same for Gaudreau. If they elect to go the same route with Bennett, he’ll likely need to do much better than 36 points to earn a contract in the same ballpark as Monahan’s.
Instead, perhaps a two-year bridge deal similar to the one Kevin Hayes received this summer makes more sense for the two sides. Hayes, who has tallied 81 points in 158 NHL games, inked a two-year pact worth $2.6MM per. That deal might be a fair comparable for Bennett assuming a 40 – 50-point output in 2016-17. A bridge deal also allows Bennett to further prove he can be a top-line player in the league.
Leon Draisaitl (Edmonton) – There was thought that perhaps the Oilers rushed Draisaitl to the NHL and possibly hindered his long term development based on the German pivot’s dreadful rookie year. After being chosen third in the 2014 draft, Draisaitl debuted in the NHL, appearing in 37 games during the 2014-15 campaign and scoring just 9 points and finishing with a -17 plus-minus rating.
Thankfully for Edmonton, Draisaitl demonstrated his career trajectory is firmly pointed upwards after an impressive sophomore season in which he tallied 51 points in 72 contests and improved his plus-minus rating to a -2. If he should continue to show that level of improvement, Draisaitl could land in the same territory as Monahan and Nathan MacKinnon each did coming off their ELCs; namely in the range of $6MM annually. Monahan is coming off back-to-back 60-point campaigns while MacKinnon sandwiched a mediocre second season (38 points in 64 games) between a 63-point debut and a 2015-16 almost identical to Draisaitl’s in terms of production (52 points in 72 games). If Draisaitl can produce in the neighborhood of 60 – 65 points in his platform year, $6MM annually may well be within reach.
Tyler Toffoli (Los Angeles) – Toffoli has improved steadily over his three full NHL seasons, seeing his goal totals increase from 12 his rookie season to 23 in year two and finally to a team-leading 31 last season with the Kings. He also led the league in plus-minus rating with a +35.
Toffoli won’t turn 25 until late in the 2016-17 campaign suggesting he has several more prime years remaining. He is entering the final season of a two-year deal with an AAV of $3.25MM and should be in line for a lucrative long-term pact. Two recent extensions signed by RFA-eligible players that could set the bar for a Toffoli deal are the contracts inked within the last several months by Filip Forsberg (six years with an AAV of $6MM per) and Mike Hoffman (four years with an AAV of $5.1875MM). If Toffoli produces season scoring totals in 2016-17 similar to those of this past campaign, he should be able to command something between what Hoffman and Forsberg are earning on each of their respective deals.
Snapshots: Zetterberg, Miller, Brown
With the departure of Pavel Datsyuk to the KHL, Detroit Red Wings captain Henrik Zetterberg assumed the mantle as the team’s longest tenured player. Entering his 14th NHL campaign and soon to turn 36-years-old, the skilled Swedish forward has certainly seen better days as evidenced by his 16-point drop in scoring from 2014-15 to this past season. That being said, Zetterberg is still someone the Wings will lean on if the team wishes to stretch its streak of qualifying for the postseason to 26 years.
Zetterberg acknowledges a drop-off in his play during the second half of each of the previous two seasons and suggests he is looking at different ways to stay fresh throughout the coming season, according to Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press.
“That’s what’s gotten me the last two years, I ran out of gas. You can’t play hockey in this level when you run out of gas. So that’s one thing we’re going to play around with.”
Zetterberg tallied 27 points in the season’s first 34 games through December but struggled down the stretch recording just nine points over the final 24 contests. He also chipped in just a single point, a goal in game three, during Detroit’s five-game, first-round playoff loss to Tampa Bay. Zetterberg stated he is at least willing to listen if head coach Jeff Blashill suggests decreased ice time or even taking a game off here and there.
“As a player, as soon as you hear ‘less minutes,’ you’re not happy. I don’t think I will go and tell Coach I need less minutes. But if he decides that I need to play less or get some rest dates, I’m open to listen to that.”
“We want to see the younger guys take steps and kind of take minutes from the older guys. But I won’t give it away, they have to earn it. That’s part of the transition. I went through it when I came in and started to play more. But you have to earn it.”
Zetterberg has five seasons remaining on a long-term deal that took effect in 2009-10. He carries a cap hit just in excess of $6MM annually but the final three seasons of his contract come with actual salaries of $3.35MM, $1MM and $1MM respectively. It will be interesting to see if Zetterberg is both willing and able to finish out the pact with the Red Wings.
Elsewhere around the league:
- After trading away talented young blue liner Dougie Hamilton and steady veteran defender Johnny Boychuk in successive offseasons, the Boston Bruins are still searching for a reliable top-four defenseman, as Joe Haggerty opines. An aging Zdeno Chara is still the club’s top defenseman with Torey Krug likely not far behind but beyond those two, pickings are slim. Haggerty admits the team has the cap space and veteran assets to make a trade if they so choose, though they may already have the top-four option they seek on the roster. While also listing prospect Brandon Carlo and youngster Joe Morrow as possibilities, Haggerty believes Colin Miller might be the Bruins “X-factor” on the blue line. As Haggerty notes, Miller scored 19 goals and 52 points in 70 AHL games with the Manchester Monarchs in 2014-15, suggesting he has the skill to put up points in the big leagues. Miller came to Boston from Los Angeles in the Milan Lucic trade during the 2015 offseason and may be coming into his own as an NHL player after producing 16 points in just 42 games as a rookie. With few quality options available either on the trade market or in free agency, it might be wise for Boston to give Miller a chance before looking outside the organization for a top-four blue liner.
- According to Chris Johnston of Sportsnet (via tweet), Mike Brown is the latest veteran player to land a PTO with the tough guy winger signing on in Columbus. Brown, 31, spent time with both San Jose and Montreal last season, scoring two goals and three assists in 58 games with 90 PIMs. For his career, Brown has potted 19 goals and recorded 778 minutes of penalties in 407 NHL games. He has suited up for Vancouver, Anaheim, Toronto and Edmonton in addition to the Sharks and Habs in his nine NHL seasons. The Blue Jackets bought out the contract of veteran enforcer Jared Boll earlier this summer and could see Brown as a possible replacement depending on his play during training camp.
Potential 2016-17 Impact Rookies: Puljujarvi, Kempe, Goldobin, Tkachuk
It’s rare for players to debut in the NHL and make a significant impact for their teams in the same year they are drafted. In 2015-16, just three players selected in the prior June’s draft – Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel and Noah Hanifin – appeared in more than 18 NHL contests as rookies. However, we could see as many as five 2016 draftees all earn regular shifts with their clubs during the 2016-17 season, two of whom appear in this post.
Jesse Puljujarvi (Edmonton) – Expected to go in the top-three of the draft, Puljujarvi surprisingly dropped to #4 after Columbus elected to take C Pierre-Luc Dubois at #3 instead of the Finnish winger. Edmonton happily grabbed Puljujarvi with their choice and this stroke of good fortune may have played a role in the June 29th trade of Taylor Hall to New Jersey for Adam Larsson. Having Puljujarvi in the fold provided Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli the knowledge he had enough depth on the wings to cash in a player of Hall’s caliber to address their weakness on the blue line.
Puljujarvi combines NHL size at 6-foot-3 and 203 pounds with excellent skating ability. He starred for the Finns helping his home country win the gold medal in the World Junior Championships. He also captured the tourney’s MVP award and finished tops among all participants in both assists (12) and points (17).
The Oilers already have one of the top young superstars in the game in MacDavid and saw 2014 first-round pick Leon Draisaitl bust out with a 51-point campaign in 2016-17. Joining that dangerous duo up front is former top overall selection Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Edmonton boasts plenty of talented high-end forwards which virtually assures Puljujarvi will have a chance to skate with some good players. Don’t be surprised if he ends up as a Calder Trophy finalist and the leading scorer among all 2016 draftees.
Adrian Kempe (Los Angeles) – After losing forwards Milan Lucic and Kris Versteeg to free agency and with Dustin Brown‘s offense regressing to a level where he has no business in the top-nine, the Kings could turn to Kempe to provide additional scoring. Kempe, the team’s first-round choice in 2014, already has 55 games of pro experience in North America after suiting up this past season for the Kings AHL affiliate, the Ontario Reign. The Swedish winger tallied 11 goals and recorded 28 points during the regular season and another four goals and five points in 13 postseason contests.
Since Kempe doesn’t turn 20 until later this month and given he didn’t exactly dominate at the AHL level, it wouldn’t be a bad idea if the Kings sent him back to Ontario to start the 2016-17 campaign and get some more seasoning. But with Kyle Clifford (nine points in 56 games) and Brown (28 points in 82 games) currently expected to hold top-nine spots, according to Roster Resource, Los Angeles might decide they need to inject more offense into the lineup and Kempe could be the source of that offense.
Nikolay Goldobin (San Jose) – The Sharks addressed any need they may have had for a scoring line LW by signing Mikkel Boedker as a free agent this summer. With Tomas Hertl and Patrick Marleau also listed as LW’s on the team’s depth chart, it’s likely the highly skilled Goldobin begins the season with the San Jose Barracudas of the AHL to gain more experience. But in the event of injury, Goldobin could be among the team’s first choices for a promotion to the big club.
Goldobin is said to have an excellent shot and release and is a creative offensive player. He can use some work on his defensive game, as do many young players, which is another reason he might find himself in the AHL to start the 2016-17 campaign. But with Marleau entering the final year of his contract, Goldobin is in line to land a job with the Sharks soon enough; perhaps as early as this year.
Matthew Tkachuk (Calgary) – The Flames already possess several skilled young players, but as mentioned in an earlier installment of this series, if they do have an opening it would be for a scoring line LW with size. Hunter Shinkaruk might get the first crack to fill that role though he doesn’t possess the size the Flames would seem to need. If Shinkaruk isn’t ready for regular NHL action, Tkachuk could be an option for Calgary up front.
Tkachuk, the son of former NHL power forward Keith Tkachuk, was drafted by the Flames with the sixth overall selection of the 2016 draft following an impressive 107-point season with the London Knights of the OHL. While his dad was noted for playing a physical game (2,219 PIM in 1,201 NHL games), as well as being a terrific goal scorer, Matthew is more of a complete, two-way player who is also a good skater with high-end offensive instincts. He helped Team USA to a bronze medal at the 2016 WJC U20 tournament, tallying 11 points in seven contests.
Tkachuk might be better off returning to junior to gain more experience. He will certainly have to prove to the Flames that he is truly ready to play at the NHL level but he has the talent and the skill to provide some offense if he earns a role in Calgary.