Compelling RFA Cases For 2017: Gostisbehere, Dumoulin
Jacob Trouba, Johnny Gaudreau and Nikita Kucherov highlight a strong and deep group of restricted free agents that remain unsigned at the moment. While they will each ultimately cash in and receive substantial contracts for the 2016-17 campaign and likely beyond, their status as restricted free agents has certainly complicated their respective negotiation processes.
Next summer, another quality group of players are set to hit restricted free agency, unless they can agree to terms on a new deal prior to the 2017-18 league year. In a series of posts, Pro Hockey Rumors will profile the top pending 2017 RFAs and examine what kind of contract they could elicit assuming they put up a strong performance during their platform year. Today we continue in the Metro.
Shayne Gostisbehere (Philadelphia): Gostisbehere exploded upon the scene in 2015-16, netting 17 goals and 46 points – in just 64 games – to lead all rookies in those categories. The former Union College defenseman quickly became one of the league’s most exciting blue liners and earned a spot on the Team North America entry in the World Cup.
The agents for this year’s top remaining unsigned RFA defenders – Hampus Lindholm and Rasmus Ristolainen – are pointing to the recently-signed and massive extension signed by Aaron Ekblad as the target. Ekblad of course inked an eight-year, $60MM deal with Florida and while Lindholm and Ristolainen are probably not at the level the Panthers blue liner is, they will still likely pocket something in the vicinity of $6MM annually when they finally sign.
Chances are Gostisbehere is also going to use the Ekblad deal as a comparable. Ekblad hasn’t produced offense at the same rate as Gostisbehere (0.72 PPG for “The Ghost” versus 0.47 PPG for Ekblad) but is a former #1 overall pick and projects as a perennial Norris Trophy candidate.
It’s likely the Lindholm and Ristolainen deals will actually serve as a better framework for a new contract for Gostisbehere. Assuming they each get something close to $6MM per, it’s fair to guess the Flyers young blue liner will also land in the same neighborhood.
Brian Dumoulin (Pittsburgh): Dumoulin tallied just 16 points in 79 contests and failed to net a single goal in 2015-16. Ordinarily those numbers wouldn’t be reflective of a guy who is going to cash in but Dumoulin showed in the postseason he has more to offer the Penguins. In 24 playoff games, Dumoulin scored two goals and eight points while averaging 21:31 of ice time per game. If he can carry over that level of play into the 2016-17 regular season, Dumoulin will surely be rewarded handsomely on his next contract.
A similar comparable could be Dmitry Orlov, who eventually signed a one-year deal with Washington worth $2.57MM. Orlov has clearly been a superior offensive producer, averaging 0.30 PPG during his career while Dumoulin has averaged just 0.19. But at 25, Dumoulin is just entering his prime and as we saw in the playoffs, he is capable of producing more offense in the right role. Currently he is listed opposite Kris Letang on the Penguins top blue line pair which could result in a higher point total for Dumoulin.
Even if Dumoulin doesn’t produce much offensively, there is still plenty of value in a steady and reliable performer on the back end. If both team and player elect for a one or two-year bridge deal, an AAV close to $2.5MM would seem fair. A long-term deal buying out free agent years could take the price up north of $3MM annually.
Central Division Notes: Trouba, Carle, Rozsival, Tuch
Despite Jacob Trouba‘s recently publicized trade request, the Jets should only move him if it’s on their terms because of the bad precedent it would set for future RFAs, opines Ted Wyman of the Winnipeg Sun. As Wyman notes, the Jets are a draft-and-develop organization given their status as a small market team and the difficulties they face in competing for marketable free agents. Acquiescing to Trouba’s request would harm the club’s leverage when it comes to future negotiations with players like Nikolaj Ehlers, Kyle Connor and Patrick Laine when they reach restricted free agency. A small market club needs to be able to retain as much of their best young talent as possible and the Jets must be able to keep the salaries of their RFAs in line while those players are still under team control.
Wyman also believes that since Trouba has yet to live up to his full potential in his first three seasons on the league, he should be willing to accept a fair market contract and to play wherever his coach wants him to play. If he wants to move over to the right side, as he has indicated, he needs to beat out one of the incumbents – Dustin Byfuglien and Tyler Myers.
As Wyman writes further, it’s likely Trouba’s insistence on playing on the right side is in fact a smoke screen and the reality is the young defenseman simply wants out of Winnipeg. Of course Trouba and his agent, Kurt Overhardt, have both insisted his request is based solely on his desire to be a right-side defenseman and has nothing to do with the city or the organization.
More from the NHL’s Central Division:
- Four seasons ago, Matt Carle‘s stock was such that the 27-year-old defender received the second-largest contract inked by any player during the summer of 2011. Last season, he fell out of favor in Tampa Bay and despite the Lightning often suiting up seven blue liners, Carle still couldn’t crack the lineup. It was no surprise, then, that the Lightning opted to buy out the remaining two years of his deal as the team looked to save as much money as possible in order to re-sign several important free agents. Carle would end up signing a one-year deal with Nashville worth just $700K, where the 11-year veteran will be reunited with head coach Peter Laviolette. Under Laviolette, Carle had some of his best yearss, statistically, while a member of the Flyers, tallying at least 35 points in each of his final three seasons with the team. Carle hopes that at age-32 and playing for a coach with whom he is both comfortable and familiar, that he can once again be an important player for a contending team. The Predators do boast one of the league’s most talented blue lines but there is room for a veteran to stabilize the unit, particularly after dealing away team captain Shea Weber this summer.
- Veteran defenseman Michal Rozsival has carved out a solid 15-year NHL career and realizes his days in the league are numbered. Rozsival has spent the past four seasons with the Chicago Blackhawks and was brought back by the club for what the 38-year-old defender hopes will be his fifth campaign in the windy city. But after the 2015-16 season, Rozsival wasn’t sure he would be back in Chicago and despite signing a one-year, $600K deal, he isn’t even sure what his role with the Hawks will be, as Chris Kuc of the Chicago Tribune writes. “Right now, I still don’t know what my role is. It might be determined by the way I play. The last four years I’ve played 20 games, I’ve played 30 games and I’ve played 50 games. I’m ready for anything and for any kind of role. Obviously, I would love to be playing. I’m always trying to fight for my ice time.” It’s likely the Blackhawks value his experience and will find a spot for him on the roster, even if it is as the seventh or eighth defenseman.
- Minnesota entered training camp with a few openings at forward and plenty of candidates to earn those jobs. Unfortunately for the Wild, none of those candidates have impressed head coach Bruce Boudreau to this point in the preseason, according to Michael Russo of the Star Tribune. Veteran role players Zac Dalpe and Ryan Carter have failed to make a mark while youngsters Alex Tuch, Kurtis Gabriel, Joel Eriksson Ek and Tyler Graovac have yet to grab hold of a job. Whether this might prompt GM Chuck Fletcher to explore his alternatives or not is unclear but he may have to if the in-house options continue their collectively mediocre play.
Pacific Division Roster Battle Notes: Setoguchi, Dell, Hamilton, Jones, Booth
A 30-goal scorer in the NHL at the age of 22, Devin Setoguchi was well on his way to stardom once upon a time. But a steady decline in his on-ice performance coupled with a well-documented problem with alcohol derailed his once promising hockey career. Now completely sober, Setoguchi is in camp with the L.A. Kings and according to Elliot Teaford of the Los Angeles Daily News, the 29-year-old forward is taking full advantage of what well could be his last opportunity to make an NHL roster.
Steoguchi, who the Kings signed to a PTO earlier this month, has impressed the Kings coaching staff with the “energy and effectiveness” that is reminiscent of his early days playing for the Sharks, opines Teaford. And while the Kings may not expect Setoguchi to again score 20 or more goals in a single season at this level, there is a real opportunity for him to make the roster and contribute. The Kings lost LW Milan Lucic to free agency while Marian Gaborik injured his foot at the World Cup and is set to miss the start of the 2016-17 season. Even if it’s in a bottom-six role, Setoguchi can add quality depth to the Kings lineup if he continues to play with energy.
Kings assistant coach John Stevens had this to say about Setoguchi:
“You have to give him a lot of credit.” He was out of the league for a little bit and I didn’t know what to expect, but to his credit he came here in a very good condition and was ready to go and wanted to put his best foot forward to win a position on the squad. I think for me it’s exciting to see that, just coming in here prepared.”
“He’s going to give himself a good chance to perform well, so it’s good to see.”
Whether Setoguchi will make an impact with the Kings in 2016-17 and possibly jump start his NHL career remains to be seen. But at the very least, it appears as if he has his life in order again.
Elsewhere regarding position battles in the Pacific Division:
- When James Reimer signed lucrative contract this summer to become the Florida Panthers new backup goalie, the Sharks were left searching for his replacement. As Curtis Pashelka of The Mercury News writes, it appears as if 27-year-old journeyman netminder Aaron Dell is the front-runner to earn the #2 position behind incumbent starter Martin Jones. Dell, who played collegiate hockey for the University of North Dakota, suited up for five different professional teams prior to signing with the Sharks organization in March of 2015. He finished with 17 wins, a GAA of 2.42 and a save % of 92.2 in 40 appearances for the San Jose Barracuda of the AHL during the 2015-16 season. Troy Grosenick represents Dell’s competition for the position. The two shared duties with the Barracuda a year ago with Grosenick’s numbers – 3.16 GAA, 89.4% Save % – inferior to those posted by Dell. Of the pair, Grosenick is the only goalie with any NHL experience, albeit with just two appearances with the Sharks in 2014-15.
- Last season, Freddie Hamilton assisted on a goal by his brother, Dougie, becoming the first set of siblings to appear on the same line on the score sheet. As Wes Gilbertson of the Calgary Sun writes, Freddie would like that to be the first time of many for the brothers. While Dougie is a big-ticket player for the Flames and assured of a spot among Calgary’s top four blue liners, Freddie will have to earn regular ice time as a forward. The elder Hamilton brother recently inked a two-year, one-way contract with the club but as GM Brad Treliving noted, “Last year, we had players on one-way contracts that were making good money that went to the minors. I think all the players know that there is still the make-the-team portion of this, and that’s no different for Freddie or anybody.” Hamilton appeared in just four games with the Flames in 2015-16 and has only 33 career games of NHL experience. Hamilton’s chances of making the club could hinge largely on whether the team elects to keep Matthew Tkachuk on the roster or return the 2016 first-round pick to juniors. If Tkachuk makes the team it would likely push more accomplished players down the depth chart and leave little room for Hamilton.
- The Anaheim Ducks may be deep on defense but they have a couple of openings up front with plenty of competition for those spots. As Eric Stephens of the Orange County Register writes, veteran forwards David Booth, David Jones and Sean Bergenheim are in camp with Anaheim, trying to convert a PTO into a guaranteed deal. All three have achieved a fair amount of success in this league but have struggled in recent seasons, with Booth and Bergenheim each failing to land an NHL job in 2015-16. Jones, on the other hand, scored 11 goals in 75 games between Calgary and Minnesota.
Vladimir Sobotka Likely Remaining In KHL
After a long fight over Vladimir Sobotka and where he’ll spend his playing days this season, it appears that he’s made a decision. Avangard Omsk has released that the St. Louis Blues forward will report to their camp on Wednesday, and play this season in the KHL.
Both St. Louis and Omsk had previously claimed that they had valid contracts with the 29-year old, making this release at least a touch suspect. We’ve been burned before by reports out of Russia, even from the teams themselves.
For what it’s worth, Aivis Kalnins also hears that Sobotka will be remaining in the KHL, although it’s unclear whether he’s just going off the same release.
If all of this becomes a reality, the Blues will once again miss out on bringing back the former fourth-round pick who has developed into a legitimate offensive weapon. Sobotka put up 33 points in his final NHL season, and has had two successful campaigns in Russia, putting up 38 and 34 points in much shorter seasons.
The Blues will need to find some secondary scoring somewhere else this season, after also losing David Backes to free agency this summer. Omsk, on the other hand, will use Sobotka in a similar scoring role and on the powerplay.
Blues Notes: Steen, Shattenkirk, Hutton
When David Backes left the St. Louis Blues this offseason, they saw one of their longest tenured player and leaders depart without much fanfare. Backes slipped into free agency and landed a big deal with the Boston Bruins to work down in their lineup and give them some secondary scoring and two-way play. With Backes gone, the Blues decided to lock up one of their other cornerstone forwards, giving Alex Steen a four-year extension on Friday.
As Matt Larkin of The Hockey News opines in his latest column, it was Backes’ departure that made it necessary to lock up Steen and not completely turn the keys over to the new wave of St. Louis stars (namely Vladimir Tarasenko and Jaden Schwartz). To do it, they may have overpaid slightly. Larkin emphasizes Steen’s checkered injury history when discussing the terms, and he’s right to do so. Steen hasn’t played in 80+ games since 2006-07 when he was with the Maple Leafs, and indeed has only suited up for more than 70 twice in his eight-year Blues career.
- Kevin Shattenkirk was going to be traded. There were no doubts in his mind that at the draft or during free agent frenzy he’d be on the move out of St. Louis. It just made too much sense to everyone involved. As Louie Korac of NHL.com writes however, Shattenkirk didn’t get dealt and is very excited about it. “The grass isn’t always as greener. It’s a cliché, but it kind of fits in this sense. Don’t just leave to leave, make sure that it’s a good fit for you. St. Louis has been a great fit ever since I stepped foot here, ” Shattenkirk says, when talking about the potential trade. He also notes that being given the alternate-captain role for this upcoming season (the Blues named Alex Pietrangelo their newest captain) was a huge moment for him, as he’d been dreading a phone call from GM Doug Armstrong during the trade rumors. Even though he wasn’t dealt this summer, don’t think the rumors will go away – an elite talent on an expiring contract is exactly the type of player that moves at the trade deadline.
- When the Blues signed Jake Allen to a huge extension, and dealt Brian Elliott to the Flames they needed a new full-time backup for the upcoming season. Carter Hutton, the man who eventually was given that job, says it was a no-brainer to come to St. Louis. After three years with Nashville, the 30-year old backup puts it simply: “It’s one of those things. If you can’t beat ’em, join ’em.” Hutton has faced the Blues six times in his career and is 0-2-3 with an .882 save percentage and 3.42 GAA.
Compelling RFA Cases For 2017: Wennberg, DeHaan, Zibanejad
Jacob Trouba, Johnny Gaudreau and Nikita Kucherov highlight a strong and deep group of restricted free agents that remain unsigned at the moment. While they will each ultimately cash in and receive substantial contracts for the 2016-17 campaign and likely beyond, their status as restricted free agents has certainly complicated their respective negotiation processes.
Next summer, another quality group of players are set to hit restricted free agency, unless they can agree to terms on a new deal prior to the 2017-18 league year. In a series of posts, Pro Hockey Rumors will profile the top pending 2017 RFAs and examine what kind of contract they could elicit assuming they put up a strong performance during their platform year. Today we continue in the Metro.
Alexander Wennberg (Columbus) – Wennberg was the Blue Jackets first-round pick in 2013, selected 14th overall. He debuted in the NHL during the 2014-15 season and finished with 20 points in 68 contests. He bumped his production up significantly in year two, recording 40 points in 69 games and flashing top-six potential.
Wennberg is more playmaker than goal scorer as his career 4-to-1 assist-to-goal ratio suggests. Washington’s Marcus Johansson posted similar career numbers through the expiration of his ELC with 33 goals and 62 assists in 183 contests; good for a points-per-game rate of 0.52. Johansson would sign a two-year contract worth $4MM total following the 2012-13 campaign.
The career production numbers between the two pivots should look similar given Wennberg tallies 40-plus points in close to a full slate of games in 2016-17 and would therefore be looking at a bridge deal right around the $2MM mark annually. Given Johansson’s second contract will be four years old, inflation could take that figure closer to $2.5MM per year. A longer term would appear unlikely as the Jackets will still have several inflated contracts on the books, including those of Scott Hartnell, Nick Foligno, Jack Johnson and Brandon Dubinsky.
Calvin de Haan (New York Islanders) – Now 25, de Haan is now at the age many defensemen peak in terms of production. Originally the 12th overall selection in the 2009 draft, de Haan has already established himself as one of the Islanders best defenders and will once again fill a spot in the club’s top-four. If he can stay healthy for a full slate of games and perhaps contribute a touch more in the offensive end, de Haan could set himself up for a nice raise on the $1.97MM AAV his current contract calls for.
Teammate Travis Hamonic, drafted by the Islanders in the second-round in 2008, is a bit more prolific offensively but should help us gauge de Haan’s potential value as a top-four defender. Upon the expiration of his ELC, Hamonic signed a seven-year, $27MM deal with an AAV of $3.857MM. By that time, Hamonic was already averaging better than 22 minutes of ice time and 0.33 points-per-game. If the two parties explore a long-term arrangement, it’s likely de Haan can point to Hamonic’s deal as a comparable.
Mika Zibanejad (New York Rangers) – As part of their overall team commitment to get younger and quicker this summer, the Rangers acquired the 23-year-old pivot from Ottawa in exchange for fellow center, Derick Brassard. Zibanejad, the Senators first-round pick in 2011, sixth overall, has steadily improved his offensive production since debuting as a regular during the strike-shortened 2012-13 campaign. Last season was Zibanejad’s best, with the Swede compiling 21 goals and 51 points in 81 contests.
A player with a similar pedigree, former high first-round choice and relatively consistent point-producer, Nazem Kadri, inked a six-year extension worth $27MM in April and that deal should serve as a reasonable target for Zibanejad. Kadri has averaged 0.59 points-per-game over the three seasons prior to his extension – 134 points in 227 games. Zibanejad, meanwhile, has averaged 0.57 points-per-contest the last three years – 130 points in 230 games.
Zibanejad is entering the final season of the two-year bridge deal he signed with Ottawa, paying the five-year veteran $2.625MM per season. A repeat of his 2015-16 performance this upcoming season should give Zibanejad a good chance to match the level of Kadri’s extension. But, if Kadri takes the next step in his development and makes a push for the 60-point threshold, he could see his value escalate to $5MM and up per season.
Snapshots: Lovejoy, Bennett, Canucks, Lombardi
It’s not uncommon for players to reunite with former coaches and/or a general manager who has previously acquired that player at a previous stop. There is familiarity between coach and player and in the case of GMs, a belief in the abilities, sometimes untapped, of the player. That scenario played out this summer when the New Jersey Devils brought in two former Penguins, defenseman Ben Lovejoy in free agency and winger Beau Bennett via trade, reuniting them with general manager Ray Shero and head coach John Hynes. As Andrew Gross writes in his Fire and Ice blog, those additions should have come as no surprise to anyone familiar with the situation.
Shero spent eight seasons at the helm in Pittsburgh, selecting Bennett in the first-round of the 2010 entry draft. Clearly Shero still believes in Bennett’s upside as evidenced by the Devils giving up a third-round pick – a substantial asset – to Pittsburgh in exchange for the winger. Bennett scored six goals and 12 points in 33 regular season games in Pittsburgh in 2015-16 but appeared in just one postseason game as rookies Conor Sheary and Bryan Rust passed him on the team’s depth chart.
The Devils finished last in the NHL in goals scored during the 2015-16 season, and even after adding LW Taylor Hall in the summer, the team could use more scoring depth. Bennett hopes to be able to provide that and reward Shero’s faith in him.
Lovejoy cited the presence of Hynes as instrumental in his decision to sign with the Devils in the offseason.
“(Hynes) was my defense coach when I played in Wilkes-Barre. I played for him for a full season. He knows my game. It’s not going to be a surprise here. He knows exactly what he’s getting. That’s the reason I’m here. I know the coaching staff through Wilkes-Barre when Ray and (assistant GM) Tom (Fitzgerald) were running the organization the first time I was in Pittsburgh. Those are guys I trust and know. I’m here because they trust me.”
The veteran of eight NHL seasons will be asked to add leadership and experience to a young-ish defense corps that only has one other defender – Andy Greene – over the age of 26. Lovejoy doesn’t bring much of an offensive game to the table but has generally been a responsible blue liner and has posted a negative plus-minus rating just once in his career.
Elsewhere around the NHL:
- GM Jim Benning and head coach Willie Desjardins are well aware the team has some ground to cover if they want to make the playoffs in 2016-17 after missing the postseason by 12 points this past season. But as Derek Jory of the Canucks official team site reports, both manager and coach are cautiously optimistic about the upcoming campaign. Desjardins: “We have more depth at every position and I feel we’re stronger at every position.” Benning, for his part, believes adding Loui Eriksson and Erik Gudbranson this summer along with a return to health for center Brandon Sutter will bring needed leadership as well as depth to the club: “We’ve added more depth to our group and adding Loui Eriksson, who I feel is a good player, a healthy Brandon Sutter, adding Erik Gudbranson; we’ve added some leadership in that room to help our young players along, so I’m real excited.”
- Two days after watching Team USA elimination from medal contention at the World Cup of Hockey, the man ultimately responsible for assembling the team, Kings GM Dean Lombardi, defended his roster construction strategy: “We’ve got some darn good players, but the reality is that matchup on a skill basis, if you want to go head-to-head and play a skill game, your odds of winning that game when you look at those matchups is not very good.” While Lombardi is likely correct in his assertion that Team USA wouldn’t have been able to match the skill and talent of the Canadiens no matter who they brought to the tournament, the choice to emphasize grit and heart ignores the NHL’s recent shift to a quicker game that values speed over other traits. Of course we’ll never know whether a Team USA roster including Tyler Johnson, Kyle Okposo, Kevin Shattenkirk and Phil Kessel – for example – would have been better equipped to beat Canada, but it’s clear they couldn’t have done any worse.
Compelling RFA Cases For 2017: Johansen, Parayko, Teravainen
Jacob Trouba, Johnny Gaudreau and Nikita Kucherov highlight a strong and deep group of restricted free agents that remain unsigned at the moment. While they will each ultimately cash in and receive substantial contracts for the 2016-17 campaign and likely beyond, their status as restricted free agents has certainly complicated their respective negotiation processes.
Next summer, another quality group of players are set to hit restricted free agency, unless they can agree to terms on a new deal prior to the 2017-18 league year. In a series of posts, Pro Hockey Rumors will profile the top pending 2017 RFAs and examine what kind of contract they could elicit assuming they put up a strong performance during their platform year. Today we finish with the Central Division and move to the Metro.
Ryan Johansen (Nashville) – In Ryan Johansen, the Predators finally have that elusive #1 center they have lacked since the organization’s inception nearly two decades ago. In a rare “hockey trade” that benefited both parties, Nashville acquired Johansen from Columbus in exchange for Seth Jones, a potential franchise defenseman and something the Blue Jackets have sorely needed.
Johansen has tallied at least 60 points in each of the last three seasons and scored a career-best 71 as a 22-year-old during the 2014-15 campaign. On the downside, his goal scoring output has decreased from a career-high 33 in 2013-14 to 26 the following season and to just 14 in 2015-16. That’s likely the direct result of a shooting percentage of just 7.6%, a figure which was more than five points below the combined shooting percentage the two previous seasons. Simply converting shots at his normal rate would have resulted in a 24 – 25 goal campaign.
The Predators have done a marvelous job of locking up their core pieces to bargain long-term deals. Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi, Craig Smith and Mattias Ekholm have all recently inked extensions with Nashville at AAVs below what each player could have received on the open market. The trade-off for higher salaries during RFA years is cost-certainty and buying out free agent years below market value. Expect Nashville to employ the same strategy with Johansen.
Sean Monahan and Nathan MacKinnon have each established themselves as 60-point producers and received extensions with an AAV in excess of $6MM. Aleksander Barkov, coming off a career-best 59-point season, signed a six-year, $35.4MM deal with Florida. All three, however, were coming off their ELCs while Johansen is entering the final season of his second contract. That means any long-term deal would buy out more free agent seasons and typically that tends to be more expensive. Based on the comparable deals and his proximity to free agency, a long-term contract for Johansen could well approach or even reach $7MM annually.
Colton Parayko (St. Louis) – Parayko came out of nowhere to earn a regular job on the Blues blue line and posted a solid scoring line of 9-24=33 in 79 contests as a rookie. He boasts a hard shot from the point and tremendous size at 6-foot-6 and 226 pounds. Currently, Parayko is skating in the World Cup as a member of Team North America, flashing his abilities on the international stage.
With only a single season of NHL experience, gauging Parayko’s potential value is difficult. However, if he approximates his 2015-16 production levels this upcoming season, the four-year, $19.5MM contract awarded to Sami Vatanen by the Ducks could prove to be a reasonable comparable.
Vatanen posted campaigns of 37 and 38 points in 2014-15 and 2015-16 respectively before inking his current deal. Like Parayko, Vatanen is also a right-handed defenseman, which is more difficult to find than their counterparts on the left side.
St. Louis could counter with Ryan Ellis as a comparable. Ellis signed a five-year, $12.5MM contract in October of 2014 following a 27-point campaign with the Predators. But most would argue Ellis is worth more than that AAV and consequently Parayko would be too. It’s also possible the Blues would prefer to go with a bridge contract with a lower AAV than Parayko would be able to get on a long-term deal.
Teuvo Teravainen (Carolina) – The Hurricanes took advantage of Chicago’s salary cap woes and in exchange for agreeing to take on the final season of Bryan Bickell‘s $4MM-a-year-deal, were rewarded with the skilled Teravainen. Much was expected from the young Finn following the 2014-15 postseason that saw Teravainen record 10 points in 18 games as the Hawks won their third Stanley Cup in six seasons. While a 35-point campaign as a 21-year-old is solid, Teravainen’s skill suggests there is even more scoring potential.
It makes sense to stick with the Hurricanes when looking for a comparable since doing so offers insight to how the club values their RFAs. Earlier this summer, Carolina agreed to a six-year, $24MM extension with Swedish center Victor Rask. Rask was coming off a breakout campaign which saw the 23-year-old pivot post career-highs in both goals (21) and assists (27). More importantly, his first NHL season mirrored Teravainen’s in terms of production as Rask netted 11 goals and 33 points in 80 games for the Canes in 2014-15. If Teravainen follows the same path and boosts his offensive production into the 45-point range, a contract similar to that of Rask’s would seem a safe bet.
Atlantic Division Notes: Lupul, Marchand, Galchenyuk
TSN’s Frank Seravelli reports that Joffrey Lupul is rumored to have failed his pre-season physical and expects to start the NHL season on injured reserve. The oft-injured Maple Leafs forward only played in 46 games last year, scoring 11 goals and 3 assists.
Lupul has faced a variety of injuries in his career, but none more severe than his back issues which have sidelined him for significant periods of time. When healthy, Lupul is an excellent contributor, but his repeated injuries often derail successful campaigns.
Lupul began his Maple Leafs career with a bang, netting 45 goals and 105 points in his first 110 contests spread out over parts of three seasons in Toronto after a 2011 deadline trade with Anaheim. His strong play led to a massive five-year contract extension worth $26.25MM in total despite the fact the skilled forward had seen action in no more than 66 games in a single season since 2008-09. Unfortunately for both parties, Lupul has missed nearly a full season’s worth of games (76 in total) since inking that extension and has produced just 0.46 points-per-game during that time.
The Maple Leafs are currently over the cap by $827K, but moving Lupul to LTIR will free up $5.25MM in space. Assuming Stephane Robidas also starts the season on LTIR, the Leafs go from slightly over the cap to over $8MM under the cap. The Leafs will have the option of freeing up additional space by placing Nathan Horton on LTIR as well, which would further lower their overall cap commitment to around $60MM.
Lupul was originally the seventh overall pick in the 2002 NHL entry draft, chosen by the Anaheim Ducks. Ironically, he has twice been included in trades involving Chris Pronger, first going from Anaheim to the Oilers in exchange for the Hall of Fame defenseman, then returning to the Ducks as part of a package that saw Pronger head to Philadelphia. Toronto would acquire Lupul and Jake Gardiner from Anaheim as part of a trade for veteran blue liner Francois Beauchemin.
More from the Atlantic Division:
- Joe Haggerty joined local Boston sports talk show, Toucher and Rich, and discussed Brad Marchand‘s pending free agency. Marchand, of course, ranked 6th in the NHL in goals scored in 2015-16, tallying a career high 37. He is currently playing on what many consider to be the best line in the World Cup, skating on the left of all-world pivot Sidney Crosby with Bruins teammate Patrice Bergeron on the right. Haggerty opines that the Bruins need to lock up the agitating winger before he hits the free agent market, suggesting it will take a seven-year contract with an AAV of $7MM per season. He also listed the Penguins as a potential suitor should Marchand make it to free agency. Haggerty cites the fact both Marchand and Crosby are originally from Nova Scotia and that the success the two players are experiencing at the World Cup might prompt an impassioned plead to Penguins management from their best player to go get Marchand. Of course while Marchand might be getting a glimpse of how fun it might be to play with Crosby every day, he’s also reminded of just how good playing with Bergeron is.
- It appears the Montreal Canadiens have anointed Alex Galchenyuk as the team’s #1 center, with head coach Michel Therrien saying he plans to start the talented American on the top line with Max Pacioretty and Brendan Gallagher, as Stu Cowan of the Montreal Gazette reports. Galchenyuk, who has moved back-and-forth between wing and center since breaking into the league in 2012-13, may have finally earned the trust of the coaching staff on the heels of a strong 30-goal campaign, which included netting 18 over the team’s final 27 games. Veteran center Tomas Plekanec will then assume the role of #2 pivot and is expected to have new offseason additions Andrew Shaw and Alexander Radulov on his wings.
*Mike Furlano contributed to this post.
Compelling RFA Cases For 2017: Panarin, Faksa, Niederreiter
Jacob Trouba, Johnny Gaudreau and Nikita Kucherov highlight a strong and deep group of restricted free agents that remain unsigned at the moment. While they will each ultimately cash in and receive substantial contracts for the 2016-17 campaign and likely beyond, their status as restricted free agents has certainly complicated their respective negotiation processes.
Next summer, another quality group of players are set to hit restricted free agency, unless they can agree to terms on a new deal prior to the 2017-18 league year. In a series of posts, Pro Hockey Rumors will profile the top pending 2017 RFAs and examine what kind of contract they could elicit assuming they put up a strong performance during their platform year. We move on to the Central Division.
Artemi Panarin (Chicago) – The 2015-16 Calder Trophy recipient can set himself up for a monster payday with another 30-goal, 70-point campaign in 2016-17. Panarin surprised many by quickly acclimating to North America and putting up huge offensive numbers right away. He kicked off the season with a goal in game one against the Rangers and remained consistent throughout the campaign finishing just one month – February – with fewer than 10 points.
The first name that comes to mind as a potential comparable is Vladimir Tarasenko, who netted 37 goals and totaled 73 points before receiving an eight-year extension from St. Louis with an AAV of $7.5MM. Another possibility would be Filip Forsberg, who averaged 30 goals and nearly 64 points in each of the two full seasons prior to inking his new $6MM-a-year deal.
As they do every summer, seemingly, Chicago will be confronted with a cap crunch and will be looking to try to save as much money as possible on Panarin’s next contract. A trade is always a possibility, as they did with Brandon Saad, but it’s hard to imagine the Hawks dealing away two dynamic young talents just two years apart. Best guess is Chicago pushes for something closer to $6MM per on a long term deal and Panarin’s camp asking for something closer to $7MM.
Radek Faksa (Dallas) – Ordinarily, a five-goal, 12-point rookie debut wouldn’t generate much interest but with another season to go before reaching restricted free agency, and all of the offensive firepower the Stars have accumulated, it’s possible the big and skilled Faksa enjoys a real breakout campaign in 2016-17. Faksa is 22, set to turn 23 in January. He’s at an age where players tend to hit their stride and with well over 100 professional games on his resume, Faksa now has invaluable experience to go along with his skill.
The other factor that will make this a potentially interesting negotiation is the Stars cap situation. The team should have around $25MM in available space but with only 11 players signed for 2017-18, the Stars will have to be judicious with their spending. A big sophomore campaign for Faksa will complicate matters for the Stars and their ability to replace other veteran players likely to depart after the season.
At this point, the best guess is likely a bridge deal for Faksa. Even presuming a productive 2016-17 season, he won’t have much of a track record to bank on. Depending on the quality of Faksa’s 2016-17 campaign, a contract comparable to the one-year deals inked by Zemgus Girgensons or Mikhail Grigorenko – for $1.15MM and $1.3MM respectively – could be a fair compromise. Girgensons had a solid 2014-15 season, scoring 15 goals and 30 points before struggling to an 18-point year in 2015-16. Grigorenko posted a scoring line of 6-21=27 for Colorado this past season as a 22-year-old.
If Faksa enjoys a better platform year, then perhaps the two-year, $5.5MM pact J.T. Miller and the Rangers settled on this summer is something the Czech center can shoot for. Miller bested his previous career highs in goals by 12 and points by 20 during the 2015-16 campaign and earned roughly a 300% bump in pay as a result. Faksa has the talent and may get the opportunity in Dallas to post that same type of breakout performance for the Stars.
Nino Niederreiter (Minnesota) – Niederreiter has quietly put together consecutive 20-goal campaigns and established a career best with 43 points in 2015-16 for the Minnesota Wild. He is entering the final season of a two-year, bridge contract that comes with an AAV of $2.67MM.
Niederreiter’s previous two seasons compare favorably to those of New York Rangers winger Chris Kreider. Kreider has tallied back-to-back 21-goal campaigns and combined for 89 points over that span. The big Swiss winger, on the other hand, has totaled 44 goals and 80 points over the last two years. Kreider finished his two-year bridge deal – AAV of $2.475 – and signed a four-year contract worth $18.5MM. That might represent a solid blue print for Niederreiter’s next pact.