Compelling RFA Cases For 2017: Pearson, Donskoi, Horvat, Gudbranson
Jacob Trouba, Johnny Gaudreau and Nikita Kucherov highlight a strong and deep group of restricted free agents that remain unsigned at the moment. While they will each ultimately cash in and receive substantial contracts for the 2016-17 campaign and likely beyond, their status as restricted free agents has certainly complicated the negotiation process.
Next summer, another quality group of players are set to hit restricted free agency unless they can agree to terms on a new deal prior to the 2017-18 league year. In a series of posts, Pro Hockey Rumors will profile the top pending 2017 RFAs and examine what kind of contract they could elicit assuming they put up a strong performance during their platform year. Today we finish up in the Pacific Division.
Tanner Pearson (Los Angeles) – Pearson is a solid, two-way winger who has seen a fair amount of action on a line with Jeff Carter and Tyler Toffoli affectionately referred to as “That 70’s Line.” He tallied 15 goals and 36 points in 2015-16 and has a scoring rate of 0.43 Pts/Game in 146 career contests. Pearson is currently slated to make $1.4MM in the second and final season of a two-year deal.
Pearson’s career production is similar to that of two recent RFA signees: J.T. Miller of the Rangers and Cody Eakin of the Stars. Miller posted career-best totals of 22 goals, 21 assists and 43 points in 2015-16 and has a career scoring rate of 0.52 Pts/Game. Eakin has a career Pts/Game rate of 0.45 and has scored at least 35 points in each of the last three seasons as Dallas’ third center.
Statistically, Pearson would seem to match up well with Eakin meaning another season of 35 – 40 points could line him up to receive something similar to the four-year, $15.4MM $3.875MM AAV) deal Eakin is set to play under beginning this season. But if the Kings and Pearson can’t get a long-term deal done, it’s possible the two-year, $5.5MM ($2.75MM AAV) bridge contract of Miller works as a comparable.
Joonas Donskoi (San Jose) – Donskoi was a surprisingly steady producer for the Sharks and played a key role in helping San Jose reach the Stanley Cup Finals for the first time in franchise history in 2015-16. Given his first taste of North American pro hockey, the Finnish winger contributed 36 points in 76 contests and added another 12 points in the playoffs. Donskoi seemed to find chemistry with Logan Couture this past season and if given another opportunity to play on the skilled pivot’s wing, he could cross the 40-point plateau in 2016-17.
Production-wise, Donskoi would appear to be close enough to Pearson’s level that the Miller and Eakin contracts should serve as fair comparisons. Another possible comparable who would appear to set the floor of Donskoi’s expectations is Michael Raffl, who after seasons of 28 and 31 points, respectively, inked a three-year, $7.05MM ($2.35MM AAV) pact with the Flyers. Both started their professional careers in Europe and jumped to the NHL in their mid-20’s. If Donskoi’s production takes a step back from his rookie level, he could be looking at a new deal in the same range as Raffl’s.
Bo Horvat (Vancouver) – After a solid debut campaign as a 19-year-old rookie two years ago with the Canucks, Horvat bumped his production up from 25 points to 40 points as a sophomore in 2016-17. He has the skill and ability to improve his numbers even further in his third season if given an opportunity for top-six ice time.
If Horvat can take the next step to 50 points or so, a new contract could be similar to that of Nick Bjugstad’s in Florida. After netting 38 points in his first full campaign, Bjugstad tallied 43 in 201-15 and was rewarded with a six-year, $24.6MM deal which took effect upon the expiration of his ELC. Both players are versatile enough to play up and down the lineup and fill a variety of roles. The Canucks will have to be frugal, however, as they already have more than $52MM tied up in 14 players for 2017-18 leaving roughly $20MM or so – depending on where the cap ceiling falls – to re-sign several key RFAs. It’s possible they push for a less expensive bridge deal as a result.
Erik Gudbranson (Vancouver) – The Canucks took some criticism when they dealt 19-year-old Jared McCann, the team’s first-round pick in 2014, and two draft choices for Gudbranson this past May. It’s not that Gudbranson isn’t a good player; it’s more that the Canucks aren’t likely to be a playoff squad in 2016-17 and shouldn’t be sacrificing controllable young talent for a player who is set to get pretty expensive.
Gudbranson inked a one-year pact worth $3.5MM soon after the trade and will again be a RFA after the upcoming season. With five years of NHL experience already under his belt, Gudbranson will be just two seasons away from unrestricted free agency following the 2016-17 campaign. That means any long-term extension is likely going to buy out multiple free agent seasons.
Gudbranson is a physical, defense-first blue liner, who doesn’t contribute much offense. His single-season career-high in points scored is just 13. Obviously Gudbranson will be looking for a raise on his $3.5MM salary. One potential comparable for Gudbranson is Adam Larsson, who signed a six-year, $25MM extension and like the Vancouver defender is known more for his defense than his offense. But Larsson’s deal took effect on the conclusion of his ELC and only bought out a single free agent year.
A closer comparable may be Canadiens defenseman Alexei Emelin, who is also a defense-first blue liner with a career high in points of just 17. He is in the midst of a four-year deal with an AAV of $4.1MM.
With most teams favoring mobile, puck-moving defenders over tough, physical defensive defenseman like Gudbranson, it will be interesting to see what value they place on the big blue liner.
Compelling RFA Cases For 2017: Pacific Division, Part I
Jacob Trouba, Johnny Gaudreau and Nikita Kucherov highlight a strong and deep group of restricted free agents that remain unsigned at the moment. While they will each ultimately cash in and receive substantial contracts for the 2016-17 campaign and likely beyond, their status as restricted free agents has certainly complicated the negotiation process.
Next summer, another quality group of players are set to hit restricted free agency unless they can agree to terms on a new deal prior to the 2017-18 league year. In a series of posts, Pro Hockey Rumors will profile the top pending 2017 RFAs and examine what kind of contract they could elicit assuming they put up a strong performance during their platform year. Today we start in the Pacific Division.
Anthony Duclair (Arizona) – “The Duke” is coming off a solid rookie season, scoring 20 goals and posting 44 points in 81 games for the Coyotes. Arizona acquired Duclair and a couple of draft picks from the New York Rangers at the 2015 deadline in the Keith Yandle deal. Duclair, considered a first-round talent in his draft year, tumbled into the third-round following an injury-shortened 2014-15 campaign in the QMJHL.
Another 20+ goal campaign could propel Duclair’s earning potential into the $4MM range annually. Mike Hoffman, who has scored 27 and 29 goals respectively the last two seasons, inked a four-year deal with an AAV of more than $5MM per season. On the heels of back-to-back 21-goal campaigns, Chris Kreider also landed a four-year pact, his worth $18.5MM in total. Kreider was coming off his second contract, Hoffman his ELC. Based on experience, Hoffman would be the better comparable but the goal-scoring numbers are likely to match up better with Kreider. Either way, if Duclair can match or exceed his 2015-16 production this season, a $4MM+ AAV on a new contract would be realistic.
Sam Bennett (Calgary) – Bennett, the fourth overall selection in the 2014 entry draft, posted an 18-18=36 scoring line as a rookie with the Flames in 2015-16, while playing the entire campaign as a 19-year-old. Along with the aforementioned Gaudreau and Sean Monahan, Bennett is part of a strong nucleus of young talent the Flames are counting on to lead the club into Stanley Cup contention.
Assuming an uptick in performance given Bennett now has a full year of NHL experience under his belt, it will be interesting to see how the Flames handle his restricted free agency. They’ve already locked up Monahan to a rich long-term extension and seem to want to do the same for Gaudreau. If they elect to go the same route with Bennett, he’ll likely need to do much better than 36 points to earn a contract in the same ballpark as Monahan’s.
Instead, perhaps a two-year bridge deal similar to the one Kevin Hayes received this summer makes more sense for the two sides. Hayes, who has tallied 81 points in 158 NHL games, inked a two-year pact worth $2.6MM per. That deal might be a fair comparable for Bennett assuming a 40 – 50-point output in 2016-17. A bridge deal also allows Bennett to further prove he can be a top-line player in the league.
Leon Draisaitl (Edmonton) – There was thought that perhaps the Oilers rushed Draisaitl to the NHL and possibly hindered his long term development based on the German pivot’s dreadful rookie year. After being chosen third in the 2014 draft, Draisaitl debuted in the NHL, appearing in 37 games during the 2014-15 campaign and scoring just 9 points and finishing with a -17 plus-minus rating.
Thankfully for Edmonton, Draisaitl demonstrated his career trajectory is firmly pointed upwards after an impressive sophomore season in which he tallied 51 points in 72 contests and improved his plus-minus rating to a -2. If he should continue to show that level of improvement, Draisaitl could land in the same territory as Monahan and Nathan MacKinnon each did coming off their ELCs; namely in the range of $6MM annually. Monahan is coming off back-to-back 60-point campaigns while MacKinnon sandwiched a mediocre second season (38 points in 64 games) between a 63-point debut and a 2015-16 almost identical to Draisaitl’s in terms of production (52 points in 72 games). If Draisaitl can produce in the neighborhood of 60 – 65 points in his platform year, $6MM annually may well be within reach.
Tyler Toffoli (Los Angeles) – Toffoli has improved steadily over his three full NHL seasons, seeing his goal totals increase from 12 his rookie season to 23 in year two and finally to a team-leading 31 last season with the Kings. He also led the league in plus-minus rating with a +35.
Toffoli won’t turn 25 until late in the 2016-17 campaign suggesting he has several more prime years remaining. He is entering the final season of a two-year deal with an AAV of $3.25MM and should be in line for a lucrative long-term pact. Two recent extensions signed by RFA-eligible players that could set the bar for a Toffoli deal are the contracts inked within the last several months by Filip Forsberg (six years with an AAV of $6MM per) and Mike Hoffman (four years with an AAV of $5.1875MM). If Toffoli produces season scoring totals in 2016-17 similar to those of this past campaign, he should be able to command something between what Hoffman and Forsberg are earning on each of their respective deals.
Snapshots: Zetterberg, Miller, Brown
With the departure of Pavel Datsyuk to the KHL, Detroit Red Wings captain Henrik Zetterberg assumed the mantle as the team’s longest tenured player. Entering his 14th NHL campaign and soon to turn 36-years-old, the skilled Swedish forward has certainly seen better days as evidenced by his 16-point drop in scoring from 2014-15 to this past season. That being said, Zetterberg is still someone the Wings will lean on if the team wishes to stretch its streak of qualifying for the postseason to 26 years.
Zetterberg acknowledges a drop-off in his play during the second half of each of the previous two seasons and suggests he is looking at different ways to stay fresh throughout the coming season, according to Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press.
“That’s what’s gotten me the last two years, I ran out of gas. You can’t play hockey in this level when you run out of gas. So that’s one thing we’re going to play around with.”
Zetterberg tallied 27 points in the season’s first 34 games through December but struggled down the stretch recording just nine points over the final 24 contests. He also chipped in just a single point, a goal in game three, during Detroit’s five-game, first-round playoff loss to Tampa Bay. Zetterberg stated he is at least willing to listen if head coach Jeff Blashill suggests decreased ice time or even taking a game off here and there.
“As a player, as soon as you hear ‘less minutes,’ you’re not happy. I don’t think I will go and tell Coach I need less minutes. But if he decides that I need to play less or get some rest dates, I’m open to listen to that.”
“We want to see the younger guys take steps and kind of take minutes from the older guys. But I won’t give it away, they have to earn it. That’s part of the transition. I went through it when I came in and started to play more. But you have to earn it.”
Zetterberg has five seasons remaining on a long-term deal that took effect in 2009-10. He carries a cap hit just in excess of $6MM annually but the final three seasons of his contract come with actual salaries of $3.35MM, $1MM and $1MM respectively. It will be interesting to see if Zetterberg is both willing and able to finish out the pact with the Red Wings.
Elsewhere around the league:
- After trading away talented young blue liner Dougie Hamilton and steady veteran defender Johnny Boychuk in successive offseasons, the Boston Bruins are still searching for a reliable top-four defenseman, as Joe Haggerty opines. An aging Zdeno Chara is still the club’s top defenseman with Torey Krug likely not far behind but beyond those two, pickings are slim. Haggerty admits the team has the cap space and veteran assets to make a trade if they so choose, though they may already have the top-four option they seek on the roster. While also listing prospect Brandon Carlo and youngster Joe Morrow as possibilities, Haggerty believes Colin Miller might be the Bruins “X-factor” on the blue line. As Haggerty notes, Miller scored 19 goals and 52 points in 70 AHL games with the Manchester Monarchs in 2014-15, suggesting he has the skill to put up points in the big leagues. Miller came to Boston from Los Angeles in the Milan Lucic trade during the 2015 offseason and may be coming into his own as an NHL player after producing 16 points in just 42 games as a rookie. With few quality options available either on the trade market or in free agency, it might be wise for Boston to give Miller a chance before looking outside the organization for a top-four blue liner.
- According to Chris Johnston of Sportsnet (via tweet), Mike Brown is the latest veteran player to land a PTO with the tough guy winger signing on in Columbus. Brown, 31, spent time with both San Jose and Montreal last season, scoring two goals and three assists in 58 games with 90 PIMs. For his career, Brown has potted 19 goals and recorded 778 minutes of penalties in 407 NHL games. He has suited up for Vancouver, Anaheim, Toronto and Edmonton in addition to the Sharks and Habs in his nine NHL seasons. The Blue Jackets bought out the contract of veteran enforcer Jared Boll earlier this summer and could see Brown as a possible replacement depending on his play during training camp.
Potential 2016-17 Impact Rookies: Puljujarvi, Kempe, Goldobin, Tkachuk
It’s rare for players to debut in the NHL and make a significant impact for their teams in the same year they are drafted. In 2015-16, just three players selected in the prior June’s draft – Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel and Noah Hanifin – appeared in more than 18 NHL contests as rookies. However, we could see as many as five 2016 draftees all earn regular shifts with their clubs during the 2016-17 season, two of whom appear in this post.
Jesse Puljujarvi (Edmonton) – Expected to go in the top-three of the draft, Puljujarvi surprisingly dropped to #4 after Columbus elected to take C Pierre-Luc Dubois at #3 instead of the Finnish winger. Edmonton happily grabbed Puljujarvi with their choice and this stroke of good fortune may have played a role in the June 29th trade of Taylor Hall to New Jersey for Adam Larsson. Having Puljujarvi in the fold provided Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli the knowledge he had enough depth on the wings to cash in a player of Hall’s caliber to address their weakness on the blue line.
Puljujarvi combines NHL size at 6-foot-3 and 203 pounds with excellent skating ability. He starred for the Finns helping his home country win the gold medal in the World Junior Championships. He also captured the tourney’s MVP award and finished tops among all participants in both assists (12) and points (17).
The Oilers already have one of the top young superstars in the game in MacDavid and saw 2014 first-round pick Leon Draisaitl bust out with a 51-point campaign in 2016-17. Joining that dangerous duo up front is former top overall selection Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Edmonton boasts plenty of talented high-end forwards which virtually assures Puljujarvi will have a chance to skate with some good players. Don’t be surprised if he ends up as a Calder Trophy finalist and the leading scorer among all 2016 draftees.
Adrian Kempe (Los Angeles) – After losing forwards Milan Lucic and Kris Versteeg to free agency and with Dustin Brown‘s offense regressing to a level where he has no business in the top-nine, the Kings could turn to Kempe to provide additional scoring. Kempe, the team’s first-round choice in 2014, already has 55 games of pro experience in North America after suiting up this past season for the Kings AHL affiliate, the Ontario Reign. The Swedish winger tallied 11 goals and recorded 28 points during the regular season and another four goals and five points in 13 postseason contests.
Since Kempe doesn’t turn 20 until later this month and given he didn’t exactly dominate at the AHL level, it wouldn’t be a bad idea if the Kings sent him back to Ontario to start the 2016-17 campaign and get some more seasoning. But with Kyle Clifford (nine points in 56 games) and Brown (28 points in 82 games) currently expected to hold top-nine spots, according to Roster Resource, Los Angeles might decide they need to inject more offense into the lineup and Kempe could be the source of that offense.
Nikolay Goldobin (San Jose) – The Sharks addressed any need they may have had for a scoring line LW by signing Mikkel Boedker as a free agent this summer. With Tomas Hertl and Patrick Marleau also listed as LW’s on the team’s depth chart, it’s likely the highly skilled Goldobin begins the season with the San Jose Barracudas of the AHL to gain more experience. But in the event of injury, Goldobin could be among the team’s first choices for a promotion to the big club.
Goldobin is said to have an excellent shot and release and is a creative offensive player. He can use some work on his defensive game, as do many young players, which is another reason he might find himself in the AHL to start the 2016-17 campaign. But with Marleau entering the final year of his contract, Goldobin is in line to land a job with the Sharks soon enough; perhaps as early as this year.
Matthew Tkachuk (Calgary) – The Flames already possess several skilled young players, but as mentioned in an earlier installment of this series, if they do have an opening it would be for a scoring line LW with size. Hunter Shinkaruk might get the first crack to fill that role though he doesn’t possess the size the Flames would seem to need. If Shinkaruk isn’t ready for regular NHL action, Tkachuk could be an option for Calgary up front.
Tkachuk, the son of former NHL power forward Keith Tkachuk, was drafted by the Flames with the sixth overall selection of the 2016 draft following an impressive 107-point season with the London Knights of the OHL. While his dad was noted for playing a physical game (2,219 PIM in 1,201 NHL games), as well as being a terrific goal scorer, Matthew is more of a complete, two-way player who is also a good skater with high-end offensive instincts. He helped Team USA to a bronze medal at the 2016 WJC U20 tournament, tallying 11 points in seven contests.
Tkachuk might be better off returning to junior to gain more experience. He will certainly have to prove to the Flames that he is truly ready to play at the NHL level but he has the talent and the skill to provide some offense if he earns a role in Calgary.
Snapshots: Quebec Expansion, Roy, Radulov, Trouba
In a post for ESPN.com published this morning, Craig Custance provides a wealth of information on a wide array of topics. The entire piece is well worth the read but here are several of the highlights.
- Custance relays an update on possible expansion into Quebec City, per comments from NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly. Daly said that while he would like to see the NHL return to Quebec, “hopefully at some point in my career,” there are currently no serious discussions of adding a 32nd team to the league. Daly: “We’ll recap the expansion process, but I don’t expect there will be any announcements on new expansion.” Further diminishing the chances of a Quebec entry any time in the near future, Daly also stated that despite the drawn out process, the Arizona Coyotes will “find a long-term arena in the Phoenix area,” thus eliminating any talk of possibly relocating the club. All together, the NHL is satisfied with 31 franchises and the existing geographical balance of those teams. While Daly’s comments appear to pour cold water on the idea of a Quebec franchise, it’s still a good possibility the league places a team there in the relatively near future.
- During the first period of Team North America’s win over Team Europe, former Avalanche VP of hockey operations and head coach Patrick Roy met with the media. Roy is said to have resigned his position due to philosophical differences with other members of management and a loss of influence in the front office. When asked whether the Avs choice not to seriously pursue winger Alexander Radulov in free agency was a contributing factor to his decision to leave the organization, Roy indicated that while he vouched for his former Quebec Remparts star and would like to see him one day play for Colorado, the final call was always Joe Sakic‘s and that Roy “respected his decision.” Roy would later suggest that the team is giving more thought to using analytics in their decision-making and that also may have played a part in his decision to leave.
- Earlier today we touched on the lack of progress in talks between RFA Johnny Gaudreau and the Flames. But Gaudreau is far from the only remaining unsigned RFA of note. According to Custance, Winnipeg defenseman Jacob Trouba has not spoken to agent Kurt Overhardt since camp opened for the World Cup of Hockey. Custance also points out that one potential benefit to RFA’s participating in the tournament is the chance to further enhance their values with excellent performances at the tournament playing against many of the top players in the world. Trouba, for example, believes that he can fill a greater role with the Jets and if given a heave dose of responsibility with Team North America, perhaps he can prove to Winnipeg he is deserving of more ice time.
World Cup Injury Scares
One reason team executives and coaching staffs aren’t too keen on tournaments like the World Cup of Hockey is the fear one of their top players might get hurt playing in a meaningless – to them anyway – exhibition. If, for example, the Capitals lost Alex Ovechkin for any significant duration due to an injury playing in the World Cup, Washington’s chances to compete for a Stanley Cup would take a major hit. So general managers and head coaches nervously watch these games with the hope that no one gets injured and thus consequently derailing a team’s playoff hopes.
We’re just one warm-up game and a handful of practices into the tournament and already have seen a number of injury scares to key players. Here’s a quick rundown.
- Vladimir Sobotka of the Czech Republic was injured in Thursday’s game with Team Russia and according to early reports, was transported to the hospital with an apparent shoulder/clavicle injury. Tom Gulitti of NHL.com later reported that x-rays were negative and that there was a chance Sobotka would be available for Saturday’s return tilt against Russia. However, Gulitti followed up via Twitter this morning and said that Sobotka is indeed out for tomorrow’s contest. Roman Cervenka would have ultimately replaced Sobotka in the lineup but he won’t be available in time to suit up tomorrow. Instead the Czechs will be forced to ice seven defensemen and 11 forwards. Sobotka has spent the past two seasons in the KHL but was expected to return to North America and the Blues for the 2016-17 campaign. After losing Troy Brouwer and David Backes to free agency, the hope was Sobotka would be able to pick up some of the slack in St. Louis. Even though he may miss some time in the World Cup, the early indications are the injury isn’t too severe, much to the relief of the Blues and their fans.
- The Chicago Blackhawks experienced a bit of a scare when Marian Hossa left Team Europe’s game against Team North America after a puck struck his right foot causing the veteran Slovak to sit out the third period. But after a quick trip to the hospital revealed just a bruise, Hossa is expected to continue on in the tournament though he might still sit out future World Cup exhibition games as a precaution, according to Scott Powers writing for The Athletic. The 37-year-old Hossa, whose offensive output dropped last season to just 33 points in 64 games, is still a vital cog in the Chicago lineup due to his outstanding two-way play.
- Earlier it was reported that superstar goaltender Henrik Lundqvist may have injured himself while on a golf outing ahead of the World Cup of Hockey. However it was later revealed he took a shot to the ribs during a practice and that he was indeed good to go for the tournament. According to Dan Rosen of NHL.com (via Twitter), Lundqvist is in fact expected to get the start between the pipes tomorrow and play the whole game for Team Sweden.
- The news isn’t quite as good for fellow Swede and Chicago Blackhawks forward Marcus Kruger. Again according to Rosen, Kruger suffered an upper body injury which caused the pivot to miss the final 7:39 of regulation and all of OT in the game against Finland (both links via Twitter). With Kruger out for tomorrow’s contest, Team Sweden will insert Mikael Backlund into the lineup in Kruger’s place. Backlund, of course, was added to the Swedish roster as a replacement for Henrik Zetterberg.
Five Questions: Colorado Avalanche
After missing the postseason party for the second consecutive year in 2015-16, it was expected in some circles that the Avalanche would be active this offseason in attempting to upgrade their roster. Instead, aside from a couple of minor free agent signings, all was relatively quiet in Colorado this summer until the abrupt resignation of VP of Hockey Operations/Head Coach Patrick Roy. The Avalanche would eventually settle on young, up-and-coming head coaching candidate Jared Bednar to replace Roy behind the bench.
Mike Chambers of The Denver Post was gracious enough to take time out of his schedule and answer some questions for Pro Hockey Rumors about the Avalanche’s offseason and their chances to compete for a playoff spot in 2016-17.
PHR: With the benefit of hindsight, perhaps it’s fair to wonder about discord existing in the Avalanche front office entering the summer. As someone who has covered the team on a daily basis, were you surprised by Patrick Roy’s resignation or did you have a sense that there may have been some issues behind the scenes which could lead to a change of this nature?
MC: The timing of Roy’s resignation put the organization in a bind. I don’t believe that was Roy’s intention but it’s obvious he was unhappy about his diminished role in player personnel. He made that clear in his news release and you could see he didn’t have a major voice at the draft in June, and the Avs didn’t make the splash Roy wanted in free agency. To answer your question, I was surprised at the timing of Roy’s resignation but, knowing his personality, he wasn’t going to continue if he didn’t steer the ship. He wanted more and Joe Sakic obviously grew into his GM role by leaning more on his assistant GMs Craig Billington and Chris MacFarland.
PHR: After leading Lake Erie to a Calder Cup championship, Jared Bednar was widely considered one of the top, up-and-coming head coaching prospects in the game. That being said, the timing of his hire probably doesn’t do him any favors; particularly as it pertains to his assistant coaching staff. What direction do you think he goes; does he retain Roy’s assistants in full or will he make some changes?
(Note: The questions were submitted prior to Bednar officially confirming he was retaining all of the team’s assistant coaches.)
MC: Bednar will retain Tim Army (power play), Dave Farrish (penalty kill) and Francois Allaire (goalies) — plus defensive specialist Nolan Pratt, whom the Avs hired from Bednar’s staff in July. Army and Farrish might have different roles and we certainly believe Bednar and Pratt will spearhead the new systems. It’s not a complete new staff but close, and that’s perhaps what this team needed.
PHR: Trade rumors involving some of the team’s core young players have persisted since early in the 2015-16 season. How close did the Avalanche actually get to making a blockbuster type of deal at any point?
MC: I believe that was a big part of the Sakic-Roy split. Roy told us he wanted to sign a marquee free-agent defensemen in July and I believe he was the executive wanting to move major parts such as Matt Duchene, Tyson Barrie and Gabe Landeskog. In the end, I believe Sakic and his other support staff chose to stick with the core. Not pulling the trigger on a blockbuster deal was probably not what Roy wanted.
PHR: Does the new coach and presumably a fresh approach on the ice mean management is content with the core and willing to ride out the season with that group intact or do you think a poor start could lead to drastic changes in player personnel prior to the 2017 trade deadline?
MC: Drastic changes. If this team doesn’t improve with a new bench boss I think Sakic makes major roster changes. Nobody is expecting a huge improvement on the blue line but if this team evens out its shots for/against the forward core has the ability to score in bunches.
PHR: The Central may well be the toughest division in the NHL. How would you handicap Colorado’s chances to qualify for a postseason berth and if they do get in, are they capable as currently constructed of making a long run?
MC: The Avs have made the playoffs just three times in the last 10 years, but twice a rookie coach has led them to the postseason: Joe Sacco in 2009-2010 and Roy in 2013-14. Bednar’s arrival gives this team a fresh start, but Colorado will be hard-pressed to keep up with Dallas, St. Louis, Nashville and Chicago. Anything can happen in the playoffs and I do believe this roster is capable of getting there.
Mike Chambers has been a writer for The Denver Post since 1994 and has covered both the NCAA’s Denver University Pioneers and the Colorado Avalanche for much of that time. For a full bio, click here. To stay up-to-date on all things Avalanche, follow Mike on Twitter by clicking here. Pro Hockey Rumors would like to extend our sincere gratitude to Mike for taking the time to answer our questions.
Potential 2016-17 Impact Rookies: Lindell, Johns, Fiala, Barbashev
In order to have the opportunity to make an impact as a rookie in the NHL, a player typically must earn a job in training camp – beating out veteran options along the way – and find a way to translate his talents to the ice at the highest level in the world. It’s not often youngsters with little to no NHL experience are guaranteed a role with the big league team but there are exceptions of course. Today we examine four rookies who might find themselves in a position to affect his team’s on-ice fortunes. Two are virtually assured regular playing time while the others will have to impress their teams before seeing any ice time in the NHL this season.
Esa Lindell and Stephen Johns (Dallas) – With the Stars moving on this summer from three of the club’s regular blue liners – Kris Russell, Jason Demers and Alex Goligoski – Dallas certainly has spots up for competition with Lindell and Johns considered front-runners for those jobs. Both players offer good size – Lindell is 6-foot-3, 215 pounds and Johns is 6-foot-4 and 225 pounds – but bring differing skill sets to the table otherwise.
Lindell is a skilled offensive defender who tallied 14 goals and 42 points while playing 73 games for the Texas Stars of the AHL. The 22-year-old blue liner was Dallas’ third-round pick, chosen 74th overall, in the 2012 draft. After two-plus seasons playing in Finland, Lindell made his North American debut in 2014-15, skating in 5 contests with the Stars AHL affiliate. Lindell also saw his first taste of NHL action with four appearances for the Stars. He is currently slotted as the team’s third LD, behind veterans Dan Hamhuis and Johnny Oduya.
Johns is a more physical blue liner who averaged more hits per game than any other Stars player. He wrapped up his four-year collegiate career with Notre Dame scoring 15 goals and 57 points in 162 NCAA contests. Johns made his pro debut with the Rockford IceHogs, the Chicago Blackhawks AHL affiliate, in 2013-14 and scored five points in eight games. He would return to Rockford the following campaign and recorded four goals and 21 points in 51 contests.
The Blackhawks packaged Johns with Patrick Sharp in a deal with the Stars that returned Ryan Garbutt and Trevor Daley to Chicago. Johns made 55 AHL appearances with Texas and another 14 with Dallas in the regular season. He also saw action in 13 postseason contests with the Stars. Presuming head coach Lindy Ruff will split his two rookies up, the right-handed Johns stands a good chance to get plenty of work opposite either Hamhuis or Oduya in the Stars top-four this season.
Kevin Fiala (Nashville) – Predators GM David Poile held off on adding a top-six forward at the 2016 trade deadline because he was under the impression – mistaken in hindsight – that Jimmy Vesey would sign with the team in time to contribute down the stretch and into the playoffs. As we all know, Vesey had different ideas and elected to wait until August 16th when he would reach unrestricted free agency before choosing his first professional employer. That hole also went unfilled this summer giving a glimmer of hope that Fiala, with an impressive training camp, can break camp with the team and seize a top-six role.
Fiala was Nashville’s first-round selection in 2014 out of the Swiss league and is said to have game-breaking offensive potential. Because he is a native of Switzerland and played his junior hockey in Europe, Fiala was able to be assigned to the AHL once under contract with the Predators. As such, Fiala has already accumulated 99 AHL regular season games and has another six with the Predators. After a slow start, Fiala rebounded last season tallying 50 points in 66 games with the Milwaukee Admirals.
The Predators could choose to get the 19-year-old Fiala more minor league seasoning to further develop his game. Fiala seems to understand that it may take time before he earns a regular role with Nashville but with the Predators on the lookout for more offense, they could elect to give the youngster a chance to show if he can contribute this season.
Ivan Barbashev (St. Louis) – Unlike last season when they successfully integrated LW Robby Fabbri and D Colton Parayko into the lineup, the Blues may simply not have an opening this year for a rookie. The Blues addressed the loss of free agents David Backes and Troy Brouwer by signing David Perron. They also expect Vladimir Sobotka to make his return from the KHL and to fill a regular spot in the lineup. However, even though the odds are probably against it, if the Blues do go to the rookie well at some point this season, expect Ivan Barbashev to be a top contender for the promotion.
Barbashev played his junior hockey for Moncton in the QMJHL and tallied a solid 68 points in 48 games during his draft year. St. Louis would use their second-round pick in 2014 on Barbashev and the skilled winger enjoyed a tremendous 2014-15 campaign with Moncton, potting 45 goals and recording 95 points in 57 games. Barbashev made his pro debut in 2015-16, skating in 65 contests and scoring 28 points for the Chicago Wolves in the AHL.
Barbashev, who doesn’t turn 21 until December, would probably be better off returning to Chicago for another season, giving him the opportunity to fine tune his game further before assuming a regular spot with the Blues. A 28-point campaign in the AHL for a first-year pro isn’t bad but it’s not close to what Barbashev’s talent level suggests he is capable of. More seasoning would likely be a huge benefit for the youngster. But if a need arises, the Blues could turn to the talented young winger to add some skill and offense to the lineup.
Free Agent Notes: Tanguay, Bernier
Free agent left winger Alex Tanguay isn’t quite ready to hang up the skates yet, writes Marc-Antoine Godin of La Presse (link is in French). Tanguay’s agent, David Ettedgui, told Godin that there are two or three teams interested in his services but that he is looking for the right offer financially. That would suggest that Tanguay is not likely interested in a PTO at this time.
The 36 year old split last season between the Avalanche and Coyotes, scoring eight goals while adding 27 assists in 70 games; his 35 points lead all remaining unrestricted free agents. Tanguay accomplished that while battling through a lower body issue for most of the year, one that he is reportedly now recovered from. We took a closer look at his situation back in July.
Tanguay, a Quebec native, reportedly expressed an interest in playing with his hometown Canadiens back in July. He spent one year with the team back in 2008-09 before leaving to play in Tampa Bay the following summer. However, at this time, Montreal is not among the teams that have shown an interest in signing him.
For his career, Tanguay has suited up in 1,088 NHL games with Colorado, Calgary, Montreal, Tampa Bay, and Arizona, recording 283 goals and 580 assists. He currently ranks 14th in all-time points among active NHL players.
Godin also provided an update on UFA winger Steve Bernier. His agent, Phillipe Lecavalier, reports that no fewer than seven teams have expressed an interest in him so far. Bernier played a sparing role with the Islanders last season, playing in just 24 games, notching a goal and five assists. He also suited up in six playoff contests, being held off the scoresheet. However, he’s only one year removed from a 16 goal, 32 point campaign with the Devils.
The fact that there is no deal done at this time despite the fact that many teams expressing an interest suggests that no team has offered more than a PTO to the 31 year old at this point. Bernier is no stranger to waiting to secure a tryout deal as that’s how he wound up with the Islanders last year, parlaying a September tryout into a one year contract.
Unrestricted Free Agents At The World Cup
With the World Cup of Hockey set to begin shortly , five players will be out to do more than just represent their country (or continent). The World Cup offers Dennis Seidenberg, Christian Ehrhoff, Jakub Nakladal, Michal Jordan, and Lauri Korpikoski the opportunity to play in front of millions of eyes, including those of NHL executives, as they all look to secure a contract before the season begins.
A pair of German-born defenders, Seidenberg and Ehrhoff find themselves in similar predicaments as they get ready to lace ’em up for Team Europe. At 35 and 34 respectively, the veteran blue liners are both coming off a string of disappointing seasons. Seidenberg has struggled with injuries since first going down in the 2012-13 season, and his play has suffered because of it. With only 36 total points in the past three seasons, combined with a noticeable drop-off in his once-dominant defensive play, “Seids” more or less played himself out of Boston. He was surprised when the Bruins bought out his contract earlier this summer, but his numbers actually made the move very unsurprising. So far this summer, there has been little talk surrounding Seidenberg, and it was once rumored that he would retire if he was not playing in Boston in 2016-17. However, Seidenberg is set to take the ice alongside former Bruins teammate Zdeno Chara at the World Cup, perhaps looking to draw the attention of an NHL team willing to take on a reclamation project. A potential pairing partner for Seidenberg is Ehrhoff, who will also be looking to make a difference and earn himself another NHL gig with his play. With under 50 games played and less than 15 points in back-to-back seasons, Ehrhoff is no longer the elite puck-mover he once was. In fact, he failed to make much of an impact at all after being acquired by the Chicago Blackhawks late last season, playing in only eight games. Thus, it was no surprise that teams were not lining up for Ehrhoff’s services on July 1st. However, Ehrhoff is still an above-average skater and decent possession player. It seems more likely that Ehrhoff will find an NHL home for 2016-17 than Seidenberg.
Meanwhile, over on the Czech team, two younger defenseman are feeling disappointed that they are still unsigned this late in the summer. Nakladal, who has finally begun to get some attention lately, is likely paying the price for the Calgary Flames’ mistake of not giving him enough play time. When he did get on the ice in his rookie season, Nakladal was more than solid and a strong World Cup performance should give multiple NHL teams more than enough incentive to sign the high-upside defender to an inexpensive deal. For Jordan, the quiet off-season can’t have come as too much of a surprise. Unlike Nakladal, who only made his NHL debut in 2015-16, Jordan has struggled to earn regular ice time or even a roster spot for the past four years with the Carolina Hurricanes. A stay-at-home specialist without much of an offensive game, Jordan might be destined for an AHL deal or trip overseas unless he comes up big with an impressive World Cup showing.
Finally, there’s the Finnish winger Korpikoski, who finds himself in unfamiliar territory. Once a highly-coveted two-way player for the Coyotes, who never let him wander too far in free agency, the past two seasons have not been kind to Korpikoski. After his first disappointing season in Arizona, in which he was -27 with just 21 points, Korpikoski was dealt to the Edmonton Oilers last summer. The change of scenery did not go very well, as again Korpikoski’s supposedly strong defensive game was nowhere to be found, as he was -17 with 22 points. The Oilers cut ties with the forward this summer, buying out the final year of Korpikoski’s contract. Given his history as a reliable bottom-six forward, it seems likely that Korpikoski will end up on an NHL roster this season, but his performance in the World Cup is likely to set the market and make the differce between a guaranteed million-dollar deal or a just a PTO. A successful tournament for a young, offensive Finland team would certainly help Korpikoski garner some attention.