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Edmonton Oilers Acquire Duncan Keith From Chicago Blackhawks

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The Chicago Blackhawks and Edmonton Oilers have been working on a Duncan Keith trade for the past few weeks, and after a lengthy day of reports, the trade is final. Darren Dreger of TSN reports that the deal is complete, with the Blackhawks receiving Caleb Jones and a third-round pick. No salary was retained by Chicago. Mark Spector of Sportsnet reports that at one point in the talks, the Oilers tried to include Mikko Koskinen in order to clear some cap space, but he is not involved in the final deal. TSN’s Pierre LeBrun finally reported that Blackhawks prospect Tim Soderlund is headed to Edmonton as well. He also notes that the third-round pick is in 2022 and that it could turn into a second-round pick if Edmonton wins three rounds in the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs, and Keith is top-four among Edmonton defensemen in terms of ice time.

The veteran defenseman told Chicago last month that he wanted to go to the Pacific Northwest or Western Canada in any deal to be closer to his home in British Columbia. Moving Keith before the expansion deadline would allow the Blackhawks to protect an extra defenseman, something that seems absolutely necessary given their situation at this point.

Keith, 37, has two years remaining on his contract and carries a $5.54MM cap hit. The legendary defenseman will go down as one of the best to ever play for the Blackhawks, helping them to three Stanley Cup championships and suiting up more than 1,300 times. Keith has played more regular-season games than any other defenseman in Blackhawks history and trails only Stan Mikita for the overall lead. His 625 points during that time trail only Doug Wilson among Blackhawks defensemen.

Of course, his play has deteriorated some over the past few seasons, meaning the Oilers won’t be getting the same player that enjoyed so much success in Chicago. Keith will turn 38 on Friday and recorded a career-low 15 points in 2020-21. There’s little doubt that he can still play at the NHL level, but it’s hard to know exactly what Edmonton will be getting from the veteran. With that uncertainty, it seems likely that they would have been asking for the Blackhawks to retain at least a portion of his salary, though it did not occur.

The Oilers actually do have a little bit of cap room to play with this offseason, but that’s mostly thanks to so many players hitting unrestricted free agency. Tyson Barrie and Adam Larsson are pending UFAs, while Darnell Nurse, Ethan Bear, and Kris Russell are only signed through the 2021-22 season. That would mean Keith is coming aboard with the longest term left on the back end, matching the injured Oscar Klefbom’s remaining two years. If it goes badly, the team is at least in a position to restructure their finances moving forward, though extensions for Larsson and Nurse could complicate those matters.

For Chicago, adding Jones is certainly an interesting factor, given their apparent interest in his brother Seth Jones who is also on the trade market. Even without a trade of that magnitude, moving Keith out will allow more opportunity for their other young defensemen and start the transition to the next wave of talent in the organization. Even at his age, Keith was still given more than 23 minutes a night, ice time that can be spread out among the team’s other options moving forward. Receiving some cap relief and a draft pick will also benefit the Blackhawks moving forward as they try to bridge the gap from their aging championship core to a new contending group.

Edmonton has struggled to find any playoff success during the Connor McDavid years, so bringing in Keith will certainly provide an experienced voice for the Oilers captain to lean on in the postseason. Whether that previous playoff success actually helps Edmonton find some in the future is certainly still to be seen, given Keith’s Blackhawks haven’t made it past the first round since 2015.

Remember, as with any trade in the coming days, there are expansion draft complications. While the Blackhawks will get an extra spot, Keith will now require protection by the Oilers thanks to a no-movement clause that will be carried over. Even with Jones going the other way and Larsson not yet signed, the team will likely now have to leave Klefbom exposed and hope the Kraken are scared off by his injury situation. Nurse and Ethan Bear would be the other two protection spots, unless a Larsson extension comes before the draft.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Oilers Have Made A Contract Offer To Mike Smith

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  • The Oilers have made an offer to pending unrestricted free agent goaltender Mike Smith, reports Kurt Leavins of the Edmonton Journal. The 39-year-old had quite the bounce-back season in 2020-21, posting a .923 SV% and a 2.31 GAA in 32 games (30 starts) which has certainly boosted his stock heading into free agency.  Last fall, he was basically the fallback option but with Edmonton tendering an offer now, it’s clear they value him more this time around.  That should be enough to get him more than the $1.5MM base salary he had this season (plus $500K in bonuses).  Leavins notes that if a deal does get done, it’s likely that it will come after the expansion draft which means that Stuart Skinner would likely be protected in expansion.

No Buyout Notification Yet For James Neal, Oilers Haven't Ruled Out Alex Chiasson Returning

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  • After Edmonton was eliminated in the first round of the playoffs, Oilers GM Ken Holland strongly suggested a buyout or two was in the cards for his roster. However, his agent Kent Morris told Postmedia’s Jim Matheson that he hasn’t received a notification from the team yet about veteran winger James Neal heading down that path.  A buyout of the final two years remaining on the contract for the 33-year-old is likely with Neal notching just five goals and five assists in 29 games this season but such a move may not come until after expansion.
  • Morris also spoke about another Oilers client, telling Matheson in that same column that pending UFA winger Alex Chiasson would like to stay and that the team hasn’t yet shut a door on his return. Having said that, it seems likely that they’ll look at their options in free agency before potentially circling back to the 30-year-old who has managed just 20 goals over the last two seasons combined after scoring 22 times in his first season with the team.

Free Agent Focus: Edmonton Oilers

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Free agency is now just under a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Edmonton has already taken care of their most notable potential unrestricted free agent but they still have some important veterans on expiring contracts.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Kailer Yamamoto – There was some disappointment in the first half of his contract as the 21-year-old couldn’t get established as a regular.  Then same the second half of 2019-20 where he was nearly a point per game player on their second line.  That led to high expectations for this season which weren’t met.  However, he still managed a respectable 21 points in 52 games, playing as a full-time regular for the first time.  Given Yamamoto’s limited NHL experience, a short-term contract is likely and it will be interesting to see what he winds up with.  His half-season showing last season is enough to give him a bit of leverage but his numbers this year will limit his earnings upside.

F Jujhar Khaira – The 26-year-old hasn’t been able to produce much over his career and only managed three goals and eight assists in 40 games this season.  However, he is one of Edmonton’s more effective penalty killers and is a good fit on their fourth line.  A $1.3MM qualifying offer is on the high side, especially since Khaira has arbitration rights.  If they can’t work a deal out by the July 26th deadline, there’s a decent chance that he will be non-tendered.

F Dominik Kahun – A surprising non-tender last summer after Buffalo opted to avoid the risk of an arbitration award that was too high for their liking, Kahun wound up settling for a one-year, $975K contract, a deal that looked like a bargain given the fact he had two straight seasons over 30 points.  However, he didn’t play well for long stretches in Edmonton and could be heading for a similar fate later this month unless they can agree to terms on a similarly-priced deal over the next few weeks.

Other RFAs: F Tyler Benson, D Theodor Lennstrom, F Cooper Marody, G Stuart Skinner, G Dylan Wells

Key Unrestricted Free Agents:

D Tyson Barrie – After a disappointing season in Toronto leading into unrestricted free agency a year ago, Barrie opted for the best fit in the fall over the best contract.  The move turned out to be a wise one as he led all NHL blueliners in points with 48 in 56 games.  In doing so, he should have a stronger market now than he did in the fall and should be able to get a bigger contract.  However, he turns 30 just before reaching the open market and as someone that isn’t known for his play in his own end, Barrie isn’t going to command top dollar like Dougie Hamilton will if he reaches free agency.  Barrie should have a good chance to reach the $5.5MM AAV he had on his previous contract with Colorado and Toronto which would still represent a nice raise on the $3.75MM he made this season and, perhaps more importantly, land a multi-year deal in the process.

D Adam Larsson – At this point, he seems to be the priority to re-sign for Edmonton with recent progress being made on that front.  The 28-year-old is a steady defensive presence and since he doesn’t put up many points, he isn’t going to be able to command a big raise, if he gets one at all.  Something in the high $3MM to low $4MM range seems like a reasonable fit for Larsson which would allow him to get a deal similar to the one he just finished up while still giving the Oilers some cap flexibility to try to add to their roster.

G Mike Smith – After Edmonton wasn’t able to land a longer-term fit between the pipes in the fall, they opted to re-sign Smith in a move that worked out quite well for them in the end.  The 39-year-old posted his highest save percentage (.923) and lowest goals against average (2.31) in a decade and lost only six of his 30 starts in regulation time.  That would seemingly have him in line for a raise on the $1.5MM base salary he made this season but his age will likely limit his suitors, holding his market back accordingly.  The Oilers would be wise to look for a longer-term fit once again but if they can’t find one, circling back to Smith makes sense.  Assuming he signs another one-year deal, he’ll be eligible for performance bonuses again, giving them some extra short-term wiggle room on the cap.

Other UFAs: F Alex Chiasson, F Tyler Ennis, F Joseph Gambardella, D Slater Koekkoek, D Dmitry Kulikov, F Alan Quine, F Patrick Russell

Projected Cap Space

The Oilers have a little over $16MM in cap space at the moment and those amounts could increase if they opt to buy out goalie Mikko Koskinen or winger James Neal.  A new deal for Larsson will cut about a quarter of that room out and a starting goalie will eat into that as well with Smith costing about half of what a longer-term option should.  Yamamoto is the only RFA of significance so there should be some room for GM Ken Holland to work with regardless of what happens between the pipes.  The question becomes whether they should spend it on one impact piece or spread it out to give themselves better depth throughout the roster.  They have a few more weeks to determine which way they want to go.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Oilers Making Progress On A Contract For Adam Larsson

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Earlier this week, Edmonton ticked one big item off their to-do list with the re-signing of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to an eight-year, $42MM contract.  Now, their focus is set on re-upping pending UFA defenseman Adam Larsson and it appears that progress is being made on those discussions.  Larsson’s agent J.P. Barry told Daniel Nugent-Bowman of The Athletic (subscription link) that there is an emphasis on the length of the deal but that talks are going well:

We’re making progress on a contract. Sometimes teams like to move quicker than players. He’s just thinking about everything. We’re getting there. There are a few things we can still discuss.

We’d like to get some term. He’s a pretty young free agent defenseman.

Barry is certainly correct in noting that Larsson is fairly young for a blueliner with the type of experience he has.  He is only 28 but already has 10 years under his belt after making the jump to the NHL as an 18-year-old after New Jersey made him the fourth-overall pick back in 2011.

While Larsson has carved out a solid NHL career with over 600 NHL games under his belt, he’s also not the top-pairing defender the Devils hoped he’d be.  However, he has turned into a capable stay-at-home player on the second pairing but this isn’t a great situation to be entering free agency with limited point totals and a flat salary cap.  While Larsson improved on his numbers from a year ago, he still only managed 10 points in 56 regular season games this season.  That will certainly restrict how expensive his next deal will be.

As it turns out, Larsson may actually be facing a small dip in pay after coming off a six-year, $25MM contract.  Deals given to Joel Edmundson and Brenden Dillon last summer both checked in under the $4MM mark and serve as reasonable comparables to Larsson.  Both landed four-year deals as well which makes Barry’s comment about term more notable as it seems unlikely Larsson would settle for something with fewer years than that.

Assuming they’re able to get something done – Nugent-Bowman suggests something could be done as soon as next week – that should all but close the door on Tyson Barrie returning.  A new deal for Larsson would put him, Ethan Bear, and Evan Bouchard on the right side of the depth chart for Edmonton.  At some point, they need to get Bouchard – the tenth-overall pick in 2018 – into the lineup and bringing both Larsson and Barrie back would make that difficult.

While many teams will want to wait to re-sign their pending unrestricted free agents for expansion purposes, Edmonton’s situation is cleaner than most teams.  A re-signed Larsson would likely push Caleb Jones away from being protected but both he and William Lagesson (another projected exposed player) have had limited roles so far in their NHL careers.  Losing one of them to Seattle would still put them in a better situation than a lot of teams.  Accordingly, there’s no reason to delay finalizing a contract and ensuring that Larsson sticks around for the foreseeable future.

Latest On Duncan Keith

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Duncan Keith trade rumors have been swirling ever since Wednesday. Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet’s original report stated that Keith, who has a full no-movement clause in his contract, preferred to be dealt to either Western Canada or the Pacific Northwest. The story has only gained more specific details since then. It’s since been reported that the Edmonton Oilers and Seattle Kraken were Keith’s preferred destinations, but today, there’s been a lot of discussion on the Oilers’ side of the coin.

Now, a report by The Athletic’s Daniel Nugent-Bowman is suggesting that Edmonton may only pull the trigger on a potential deal if certain conditions are met. Considering the Oilers and general manager Ken Holland’s goal of being in ’win-now’ mode, Keith’s steep $5.5MM cap hit is a complicating factor in any potential deal. So while Chicago won’t be giving him away for peanuts, for Edmonton to swing a deal, the cap differential needs to be close to even when all is said and done.

How that happens isn’t entirely clear. There’s a nearly endless combination of assets in play that could make a deal work here. James Neal’s contract is similarly an albatross, and could get moved the other way with a couple of other pieces packaged in. Earlier reports today suggested that Caleb Jones could be part of a package to Chicago for Keith. Regardless, and especially if Jones is the centerpiece of a deal, Chicago will likely have to retain some amount of salary in a Keith trade. While Chicago is looking to contend sooner rather than later as well, one or even two million dollars against the cap in a retained salary transaction likely won’t be the end of the world.

It’s obvious the Blackhawks want to do right by Keith, who’s given more than anyone could’ve asked for to the franchise. But considering the 37-year-old’s restrictive demands, Chicago’s hands may end up being tied if they can’t get the return they desire — which is to say, a trade, while likely, is never a guarantee.

All contract information is provided by CapFriendly.

 

Snapshots: Jones, Flames, Ducharme

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As speculation around the now-constant Duncan Keith trade rumors intensifies, more clarity is coming around a potential return. A piece in the Edmonton Journal by David Staples starts off the party with the Edmonton Oilers. Jumping off earlier reports from both Elliotte Friedman and Bob Stauffer that the Chicago Blackhawks weren’t interested in taking on another big contract in exchange for Keith, Staples suggests defender Caleb Jones as a potential piece going to Chicago in exchange for Keith. With Chicago now being implicated in trade talks with Columbus Blue Jackets defender Seth Jones, playing with his brother may entice Seth to sign an extension if dealt to the Hawks. What is for sure is that it’s just the beginning of the inevitable rumors and speculation surrounding such big a name as Keith. As Chicago looks to move on from a franchise legend, what Chicago receives in return for Keith will be under intense scrutiny.

  • The Athletic’s Rick Dhaliwal, during his ’Donnie & Dhali’ radio show today, reports that the Calgary Flames weren’t identified by Keith or his agent as a potential trade destination. With captain Mark Giordano potentially being left unprotected for the Seattle expansion draft, it made sense that Calgary could be looking to acquire a veteran presence to replace Giordano on their blueline. However, considering the leverage Keith holds with his full no-movement clause, it appears as though Keith in a Flames uniform isn’t a true possibility come October.
  • Marc Antoine Godin, senior writer for The Athletic Montreal, relayed remarks made by Montreal Canadiens head coach Dominique Ducharme today ahead of his return to the bench for Game 3 after being sidelined for two weeks due to COVID-19. Reacting to the news that the Quebec provincial health authority would not allow more fans into the building, Ducharme commented that “it’s hard to find the logic” for not increasing the capacity from the existing 3,500 fans, especially due to the large crowds that have formed outside in recent games. It’ll be on Ducharme tonight to guide his team to a Game 3 win, despite the supposed lack of a true home-ice advantage.

Expansion Primer: Edmonton Oilers

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Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

Back in 2017, the Oilers lost a young defenseman to Vegas in expansion in Griffin Reinhart.  The fact they lost him wasn’t a big deal – he only played one game for the Oilers in 2016-17 and never played a game for the Golden Knights; he played in Germany this season – but it provided a harsh reminder of what they gave up to get him in 2015 first and second-round picks.  (The first-rounder became Mathew Barzal and the second-rounder turned into Mitchell Stephens.)  This time around, they may very find themselves losing a young defenseman once again.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Josh Archibald, Tyler Benson, Leon Draisaitl, Seth Griffith, Dominik Kahun, Zack Kassian, Jujhar Khaira, Cooper Marody, Connor McDavid, James Neal, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jesse Puljujarvi, Devin Shore, Anton Slepyshev, Kyle Turris, Bogdan Yakimov, Kailer Yamamoto

Defense:
Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones, Oscar Klefbom, William Lagesson, Darnell Nurse, Kris Russell

Goalies:
Mikko Koskinen, Alex Stalock, Stuart Skinner, Dylan Wells

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

D Tyson Barrie, F Alex Chiasson, F Tyler Ennis, D Slater Koekkoek, D Dmitry Kulikov, D Adam Larsson, G Mike Smith

Notable Exemptions

D Evan Bouchard, D Philip Broberg, F Ryan McLeod, D Dmitri Samorukov

Key Decisions

The first key decision was made earlier this week when they re-signed Nugent-Hopkins.  Had they not done so, it was possible that they could have gone with the eight-skater route, allowing them to protect an extra defenseman.  That won’t be the case now as he joins McDavid, Draisaitl, Yamamoto, and Puljujarvi as sure-fire protectees.

There are quite a few candidates for those last two spots.  A year ago, it felt like Kassian was going to be in that guaranteed protected list.  He had just signed a four-year deal and was coming off a career year offensively; it felt like he was finally becoming the type of power forward that he was expected to when he was a first-round pick in 2009.  Then 2020-21 happened.  He had two significant injuries that cost him half the season and when he was in the lineup, he wasn’t particularly productive as he managed just two goals in 27 games.  His contract has gone from market value to an overpayment in a hurry and as a result, he could very well be left exposed even though when he’s on his game, he can be a difference-maker for the Oilers.

Archibald has become more of what they were hoping for from Kassian – a physical forward that can move up and down the lineup where needed and chip in with a timely goal here or there.  His scoring total dipped to just seven this season after a dozen in each of the previous two years but he’s the type of versatile player they’ll likely opt to keep around.

In terms of their other veterans, Khaira is a capable checker but a $1.3MM qualifying offer makes him a possible non-tender candidate as in this market, that’s a bit much for a fourth liner.  That uncertainty makes it difficult to think he’ll be protected.  Turris, Neal, and Shore cleared waivers and spent frequent time as healthy scratches.  It’s safe to say they’ll be exposed as well.  Kahun had a tough year after two straight years of more than 30 points which has him in the possible non-tender category as well.  If they agree on a new low-cost deal early, it could earn him a protected slot but it’s not a guarantee.

That leaves Benson, a player with seven career NHL games under his belt with none of them coming this season.  (This year, he had 36 points in 36 games with AHL Bakersfield.)  He’s now waiver-eligible and seemingly on the cusp of a roster spot.  Even if he winds up being the odd man out in training camp, he still has more upside than several of the veterans that are vying for one of the last two protected slots.

On the back end, there are two safe bets to be protected.  Nurse has become their number one defenseman while Bear’s tough season is overshadowed by a strong 2019-20 campaign.  His potential is high enough that he’ll be kept away from the Kraken.

Larsson is a pending UFA but there is mutual interest in getting a new deal in place before he hits the market.  If that was to happen in the next couple of weeks, he’d get the third spot.

Assuming that doesn’t happen (or they wait to announce until after the draft), it would appear that two young blueliners – Jones and Lagesson – will be in the mix for the final slot.  Jones’ best showing came in his rookie year in 2018-19 and he hasn’t been able to lock down a full-time spot since then.  Of the two, he has a bit more offensive upside than Lagesson, who is more of a stay-at-home defender.  Lagesson’s a year older (25 vs 24 for Jones) and doesn’t have as much NHL experience (27 games vs 93 for Jones).  Jones would appear to have the slight edge out of the two.

If Klefbom was healthy, he’d be a guaranteed protectee.  However, he missed all of this season after shoulder surgery and it doesn’t sound like he’ll be ready to start next year either.  Could Seattle pick him in the hopes of him returning to health and becoming a possible trade asset down the road?  Perhaps but that’s an expensive gamble with $9.669MM still owed in salary in the final two years of his deal.  Russell was extended during the season to meet one of the exposure criteria and nothing has changed on that front.

Unlike most teams, Edmonton’s protected spot between the pipes is uncertain.  It’s safe to say it won’t be Koskinen who may very well be bought out this month.  Stalock was claimed off waivers during the season and is signed for cheap but he didn’t play at all.  Are they prepared to make him the full-time backup next year?  If so, he could get this slot but if not, keeping a youngster makes more sense.

That should be Skinner.  He struggled in his lone NHL appearance this season but was much better with Bakersfield, posting a 2.38 GAA with a .912 SV% in 31 games.  He’s still waiver-exempt and if made available, could be intriguing to Seattle in terms of having another goalie in the system.  Wells struggled in both the AHL and ECHL this season so it’s safe to say he won’t be protected.

Having said that, if they come to terms on a new deal with Smith between now and the draft, he’ll get the protected spot.

Projected Protection List

F Josh Archibald
F Tyler Benson
F Connor McDavid
F Leon Draisaitl
F Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
F Jesse Puljujarvi
F Kailer Yamamoto

D Ethan Bear
D Caleb Jones
D Darnell Nurse

G Stuart Skinner

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (4): Zack Kassian, James Neal, Devin Shore, Kyle Turris
Defensemen (2): Oscar Klefbom, Kris Russell

The Oilers are well-positioned as things stand.  If Seattle likes one of Khaira or Kahun, it’s possible one of the pending RFAs gets selected.  Otherwise, Lagesson could be the target as a young defender with potentially a little bit of trade value or someone that can hold down the seventh or eighth spot on the back end.  Edmonton appears to be set to be one of the teams that won’t be impacted all that much when they lose a player to the Kraken.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Finding A Match For A Duncan Keith Trade

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Yesterday, a report from Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman indicated that the Blackhawks are working with defenseman Duncan Keith on a trade that would send him to either the Pacific Northwest or Western Canada.  The move is speculated to be for family reasons which would explain the specific geographical region where he’d waive his no-move clause to go to.  With that in mind, let’s look at the potential fit for each of those teams to take on the final two years of his deal ($5.538MM both years but just $3.6MM in total salary combined).

Vancouver – With Alex Edler set to become an unrestricted free agent at the end of the month, there is a potential spot for Keith to step into if Edler doesn’t re-sign while it would shift Nate Schmidt back to his off-side.  Although the Canucks don’t have the cap space to absorb Keith’s contract outright, they have some expiring contracts (Loui Eriksson, Jay Beagle, and Antoine Roussel) that could be used as offsets to make the money work this year.  He’d also be a mentor for top youngster Quinn Hughes.

However, bringing in Keith would also put another roadblock in place for two of their young left-shot blueliners in Olli Juolevi and Jack Rathbone.  Juolevi was able to carve out a limited role last season but more is expected from the fifth overall pick in 2016.  As for Rathbone, he didn’t look out of place in a late-season stint and could be in the mix for a full-time spot in training camp.  Developing some cost-controlled assets will help offset the big money owed to Hughes and Elias Pettersson this summer and Brock Boeser next summer.

It’s potentially for those reasons that they don’t appear to be interested in acquiring Keith at the moment.  There are ways to make the money work for 2021-22 but 2022-23 could be a lot trickier and if they want to let Juolevi and Rathbone see some more NHL action, adding Keith would make that more difficult.

Edmonton – The early indications are that Oscar Klefbom ($4.167MM) may not be ready to return at the start of next season so he could be heading for LTIR once again.  Last fall, they used that money on Tyson Barrie but they could have to go in a different direction if Barrie prices himself out of what the Oilers can afford.  Theoretically, Keith could fill that same role next year although if Klefbom can return later in the year, that would complicate things.

Behind Darnell Nurse, there are few proven options on the left side of Edmonton’s back end.  Caleb Jones and William Lagesson have both had their ups and downs to this point in their young careers while Kris Russell is a third-pairing role player at best.  Dmitry Kulikov and Slater Koekkoek will both become unrestricted free agents later this month as well.  They have high hopes for Philip Broberg, the eighth pick back in 2019, but he probably isn’t ready to step into a top-four role either.  Keith could presumably serve as the bridge player for Broberg.

Edmonton also has some pricey contracts that could be moved to offset money.  Winger James Neal has two years left at $5.75MM, nearly the same as Keith while goaltender Mikko Koskinen has one year at $4.5MM remaining.  Both are buyout candidates as a result and could be included to balance the cap.  With the state of their back end, a veteran that can play on the left side of the second pairing could be a useful pickup and Keith could conceivably fill that role.

Calgary – At first glance, there doesn’t appear to be a great fit.  The Flames have their top four defenders signed for next year at a cost of $20.75MM.  While Keith on the third pairing would certainly improve their depth, paying more than $5MM for the privilege is something they can’t realistically afford.

However, expansion is looming and Calgary appears to be a team that will need to protect seven forwards which means one of their top four blueliners – likely Mark Giordano – will be left exposed to Seattle.  It wouldn’t be surprising at all to see the Kraken take on the final year of Giordano’s contract which would create an opening in the top four and $6.75MM in cap space.  That could be an opening for Keith but otherwise, the Flames shouldn’t be the landing spot.

Seattle – For the Kraken to pick him in expansion, Keith would first have to waive his no-move clause.  Considering his apparent desire to be in the Pacific Northwest, that shouldn’t be an issue.  What will be trickier is finding the fit for a trade.  Does Seattle want to take on that contract outright or are they going to want some sort of sweetener or salary offset?  The latter can’t really happen until after the expansion draft when they’ll have players to trade which would take picking him off the table.

Those small logistics aside, Keith would certainly be an intriguing fit for an expansion team.  There’s a chance he’d wind up in a bigger role than he should have (he turns 38 later this month) but he’s also someone that would potentially be their inaugural captain and help shepherd their roster through what will certainly be an interesting first couple of years.  If they take a defenseman with their second-overall pick this month and put him on the NHL roster, Keith would work as a good mentor as well.  Generally, players that old don’t make sense for a new team but there’s a fit here.

With such a narrow window of teams to work with (Winnipeg is too far East to qualify as part of Western Canada), Chicago and Keith’s camp will have their work cut out for them.  Of the four, Edmonton may be the best fit before expansion while Calgary could become an option after that depending on what happens.  And with their clean cap situation, Seattle could be in the mix at any time as well.  There are options but likely not enough for the Blackhawks to bring in any sort of sizable return for the 16-year veteran.

Negotiation Notes: Larsson, Andersen, Makar, Canucks

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After locking up Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to a long-term deal earlier today, the Edmonton Oilers will next turn their attention to reaching a new deal with defenseman Adam Larsson. According to TSN’s Darren Dreger in the latest edition of “Insider Trading“, that is more of a “when” than an “if” at the is point. Dreger states that the two sides are already close to a new deal and “in the final stretch” of negotiations. He expects that an extension will be reached soon. For Expansion Draft purposes, soon may not be until later next month, but a handshake agreement will do in the meantime. Larsson, 28, is one of the more stable defensemen in the NHL. If the defensive-minded right-shooter hit the open market, he would draw plenty of attention, but like Nugent-Hopkins, Larsson appears willing to settle on a deal to keep him in Edmonton with reigning Hart Trophy winners Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. So really, with RNH signed and Larsson not far behind, the Oilers may actually be focusing on external negotiations already, as Dreger notes they must add a goalie and complementary scoring forwards this summer.

  • It may come as a surprise following a career-worst season, but there is mutual interest in an extension between the Toronto Maple Leafs and goaltender Frederik Andersen. TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reports that agent Claude Lemieux recently met with the Maple Leafs’ brass and both sides expressed interest in a new deal, perhaps to the surprise of both. Andersen is likely not keen to enter the open market after a down year (and really many years of slow decline) when he could instead stay in familiar territory in Toronto. The Leafs also need a netminder this off-season and may be content to stick with Andersen, despite his struggles, given the play of Jack Campbell this season. LeBrun does point out that Toronto has told Andersen’s camp that he would be sharing the net with Campbell, potentially even starting out at less than 50% of starts, but Andersen is reportedly open to that arrangement.
  • Every year there is the threat of offer sheets and every year it never happens, but LeBrun notes that rumblings around the league are that Colorado Avalanche star Cale Makar could be the prime candidate this summer. With the Avalanche needing to extend the First Team All-Star as well as captain Gabriel Landeskog, starting goaltender Philipp Grubauer, and top-six forward Brandon Saad, all while saving room to extend superstar Nathan MacKinnon and replace several impending UFA’s next summer, cap space is tight in Denver. If another team swooped in with an offer that Makar couldn’t refuse, it might just be too much of a handicap for the Avs. Doubtful, but possible. Colorado can eliminate the risk of an offer sheet to their young phenom if they can lock Makar up before the market opens on July 28.
  • The Vancouver Canucks are already hard at work on extension for arguably their two most important players, defenseman Quinn Hughes and center Elias Pettersson. The pair of restricted free agents are centerpiece players for the Canucks and the team will whatever it takes to keep them around as long as possible. Dreger notes that GM Jim Benning and company are meeting again this week with agents from CAA Sports, who represent both young stars. A number of possibilities are on the table for both players, including a three-year bridge deal for Pettersson in the same vein as the recent contracts of Mathew Barzal and Brayden Point. However, it seems like long-term is the ideal goal. Pettersson is reportedly open to a long-term deal like that of Mikko Rantanen, while Hughes has explored contracts with terms between four and six years.

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