Archives for July 2021

The offseason is in full flight with only two teams still standing.  We continue our series which examines what those eliminated teams need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Minnesota.

Back in 2019-20, Minnesota went on a late run under then-interim head coach Dean Evason to help secure them a spot in the expanded playoffs.  They went a step further this year, finishing a solid third in the West Division and gave Vegas a good run in the first round, ultimately falling in seven games.  GM Bill Guerin has a decent core to work with but a few things need to be addressed for them to try to move up in the Western Conference next season.

Resolve The Parise Situation

One of the key storylines for them down the stretch was the usage of veteran winger Zach Parise.  More specifically, the storyline was that he was a frequent healthy scratch.  Through last season, the 36-year-old was still putting up numbers worthy of a spot on Minnesota’s second line and while his contract was an overpayment, he was still one of their stronger contributors.

That changed in 2020-21.  Under Evason, Parise’s role and ice time steadily dropped to the point where he was seeing fourth line ice time late in the year when he was in the lineup.  That was a tough pill to swallow for someone who has been a fixture in their lineup for nearly a decade.

There are still four years remaining on his contract with an AAV of just over $7.5MM.  If he has indeed fallen that far down the depth chart, him spending the next four years as the designated scratch or a fourth liner isn’t a viable solution.  Finding another spot for him would be beneficial for both teams but it’s not as simple as simply buying him out.  The front-loaded nature of the contract makes a buyout quite punitive to the point where the post-buyout AAV in some of the years is just under $7.5MM.

Accordingly, this will need to be a trade if they want to move him.  While Parise does have a no-move clause, it wouldn’t be surprising if he was willing to waive it to get an opportunity for some playing time.  While there aren’t going to be teams wanting to absorb the contract outright, there should be some swaps of bad contracts this summer and there may be a fit there.  Failing that, a lower-budget team might be okay with taking on the lower-priced years of the deal with the right incentive(s) attached.

Of course, there is another element that has to be considered that isn’t in effect for most other bad contracts and that’s salary cap recapture.  Parise – along with teammate Ryan Suter – are on now-illegal deals with how much money was paid out up front.  There’s a significant penalty if Parise retires early and if he’s not on the roster, there isn’t the ability to figure out some sort of injury to put him on LTIR and convince him to not file his papers.

It’s not going to be an easy fix and there are problems with pretty much every scenario.  Either Parise needs to accept his reduced role or Guerin will need to be very careful in finding a new home for him, ideally with a side agreement that says Parise plays out his contract somewhere else.  Usually, managing a situation with an overpaid veteran isn’t overly difficult but it could be here as a result.

Re-Sign Key RFAs

Guerin has already taken care of one key restricted free agent with the recent eight-year, $42MM extension that was given to center Joel Eriksson Ek.  However, there are still two more to go.

Kirill Kaprizov sits on top of this list; after a year and a half off from the seemingly annual debate on will he or won’t he sign that went on for years, Kaprizov’s contract situation is once again at the forefront.  This isn’t a case of Minnesota not wanting to pay up or Kaprizov looking to go back home as recent suggestions to that effect feel like more of a tactic than a real option.  The Wild want to work out a max-term contract that will lock up the 24-year-old through the prime of his career.  However, this isn’t a great financial climate for Kaprizov to agree to such an arrangement.  Accordingly, he wants something shorter term that will allow him to cash in once the salary cap goes up.  He is three years away from UFA eligibility and merely handing him a two-year bridge deal would easily open up the door for him to elect arbitration after that and walk to free agency at 27.    That’s not something Minnesota wants to do.  Finding a compromise that both sides are content with will be difficult which is why these talks could drag out for a while.

Another winger is also in need of a new deal in Kevin Fiala.  His two full seasons with the Wild have yielded his best two statistical years in terms of goals, assists, and points per game which has him in great shape heading into his first time with arbitration eligibility.  He’s only two years away from hitting the open market so there is a risk in a short-term deal here as well.  Unfortunately, they only have $16MM in cap space so signing Fiala and Kaprizov to contracts that buy out some UFA years will be difficult.  Even if it’s a short-term contract, Fiala will be earning a significant raise on the $3MM AAV he had on his most recent contract.

Add Center Help

Yes, this perpetual need still exists.  Guerin is undoubtedly thrilled that Eriksson Ek has emerged as a legitimate top-six center which gives them one to work; that’s better than what it had been before.  But there is still a lot of work to be done at this position.

Last offseason, Minnesota brought in three players to try to help down the middle in Nick Bonino, Nick Bjugstad, and Marcus Johansson.  None of them really panned out.  Bonino is better served as a bottom-six option, Bjugstad was only able to hold down a limited role, and Johansson wound up moving back to the wing and still managed only 14 points in 36 games.  All are set to hit the open market so there will be plenty of work to do again as those players move on.

Victor Rask had a bounce-back season but is still overpaid at $4MM and could be a buyout candidate but if he comes back, he can probably handle the fourth line.  Ryan Hartman spent some time down the middle but could be a stopgap option.  But neither of these will fill the vacancy in the top six.  Whether it’s another short-term fix or finding a way to move out salary to add a longer-term piece, at least one impact addition needs to be made at center.

Don’t Lose Dumba For Nothing

Another seemingly annual tradition as of late has been the trade speculation surrounding defenseman Mathew Dumba.  He hasn’t hidden his desire to stay with the Wild but with Suter, Jared Spurgeon, and Jonas Brodin all locked up long-term and holding no-move clauses, it continues to be Dumba that’s viewed as the potential odd man out.

That speculation will pick up in recent weeks due to expansion.  Those same no-move clauses lock in the three blueliners that Minnesota will protect from Seattle and they’re not in a spot where they can only protect four forwards to free up an extra spot for a defenseman.  That makes Dumba the one in jeopardy of being selected – he’d be the obvious pick if it came to that – and losing him for nothing to the Kraken is far from ideal.

Perhaps he can be dangled to add help down the middle.  Maybe it’s a side deal worked out with Seattle GM Ron Francis to pick someone else with Guerin sending an incentive to the Kraken to stay away from Dumba though that would need to be something of significance.  Either way, while Dumba may not be a luxury they can afford anymore, they certainly can’t afford to lose him for nothing.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.