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NHL Draft Lottery Notes: Odds, History, Viewing

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For the fourteen teams that missed the playoffs and the expansion Vegas Golden Knights, they have one thing in common: they’re hoping Bill Daly is holding a card with their logo on it, announcing that they have the first overall pick.

At 7pm central, NBC, CBC, and Sportsnet will show the NHL Draft Lottery as the Colorado Avalanche lead all teams in terms of percentage for receiving the #1 pick. Below are the odds:

Colorado Avalanche — 18.0%
Vancouver Canucks — 12.1%
Vegas Golden Knights — 10.3%
Arizona Coyotes — 10.3%
New Jersey Devils — 8.5%
Buffalo Sabres — 7.6%
Detroit Red Wings — 6.7%
Dallas Stars — 5.8%
Florida Panthers — 5.4%
Los Angeles Kings — 4.5%
Carolina Hurricanes — 3.2%
Winnipeg Jets — 2.7%
Philadelphia Flyers — 2.2%
Tampa Bay Lightning 1.8%
New York Islanders — 0.9%

TSN has a lengthy writeup on the history of the lottery and how the current format differs from other versions. The biggest change for the draft is that instead of the worst team being guaranteed, at worst, a second overall pick, they are only promised a top four pick. This was placed to discourage teams from “tanking” to draft top-end talent, which hasn’t completely negated the idea of tanking as Toronto won the right to draft Auston Matthews last season with the #1 pick while securing the worst record in the NHL.

What’s new to 2017?  From Sportsnet:

For just the second time in NHL draft lottery history, the top three picks are in play. This rule was implemented by the league in 2016 to dull incentive for any team to finish lower in the standings (i.e., tanking).

The odds of winning the second and third draws increases on a proportional basis depending on which team claimed the previous draw.

The addition of a 15th lottery team, Vegas, into the mix also affects the winning percentages.

This draft is different too, since the top two picks for the first time in three seasons are not considered the “generational talent” that Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, Matthews or Patrik Laine were when looking back at the one and two overall picks respectively.

This isn’t to besmirch the top two candidates, Nolan Patrick or Nico Hischier. After all, “can’t miss” prospects have fooled scouts and analysts before while prospects that scouts didn’t think were as good sometimes exceeded expectations.

But before the talent can be chosen, there needs to be an order. Tonight will determine that.

Specifics: 

Time: 7pm CST
Where to watch: CBC, Sportsnet, NBC

Goalies Wanted: Teams With Desperate Need

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Goaltending is perhaps the most under-appreciated position in all the world of sport. While it is true that a team doesn’t need a dominant goaltender to win a Stanley Cup or even compete for one, a poor performance by a tender can absolutely destroy a season or a series. There are still a number of teams with question marks in net, and the premier talent isn’t exactly in abundance. The expansion draft further complicates matters for a number of teams, who will need to make a determination as to who will be the tender going forward. Here are three teams which desperately need solutions to their issues in the crease this off-season.

Winnipeg Jets – The team had three goaltenders this season. None of them played well. Michael Hutchinson is a dime-a-dozen depth goalie who is likely to be exposed, and the former starter Ondrej Pavelec is without a contract and never earned another.  The 23 year-old Connor Hellebuyck will be protected, and shows great promise. That said, his .907 save percentage and overall streakiness left a lot to be desired. Perhaps many of his struggles can be blamed on the lackluster defensive efforts in Winnipeg, but will Hellebuyck be ready to ascend to the next level next season? If not, will Jets fans be content with another year without hockey in mid-April? GM Kevin Cheveldayoff has always been reserved in terms of transactions, but perhaps now is the time for decisive action. In the ultra-competitive Central division, the Jets need to find a way to win tight games.

Calgary Flames – Brian Elliott looked like he had finally put it together under new coach Glen Gulutzan in the new year. And then it all fell apart. His first-round series against the Ducks was shockingly bad (.880) – he made simple point shots complete adventures and lacked any rebound control. With his team’s season on the line in Game 4, he ceded only one abysmal goal before being pulled. In light of his consistent struggles in St. Louis prior to his Calgary excursion, it’s fair to assume he will start as a backup elsewhere next year. Actual backup Chad Johnson, also not under contract, will likely be headed elsewhere. This team needs two goalies, and it’s difficult to foresee a route that doesn’t involve a trade. Marc-Andre Fleury will still be available, and Ben Bishop is sure to tempt many. The starter situation needs to be sorted immediately, and if need be, they can always circle back to Johnson for a short-term backup deal.

Dallas Stars – How can you spend so much money on goaltending and still have none of it? Antti Niemi and Kari Lehtonen. Niemi posted a .892 save percentage for $4.5 MM, and Lehtonen posted a .902 for $5 MM. The defense has been shored up (to a degree), but the goals still hit the twine with depressing frequency. With one season remaining on either goalie’s deal, one needs to be shipped out this off-season in favor of a more cost-effective (and hopefully generally effective) netminder. Under a new coach, a resurgence from either is possible, but it seems dangerous to gamble on that possibility. It’s possible that Vegas might want an extra large contract to hit the cap floor or veteran backup with a ring, but with the better options likely to be available, that seems unlikely. Perhaps a financially struggling franchise would be willing to take on an expensive backup, if the deal were sweetened.

How Did The Top Five Picks In The 2016 Draft Class Fare?

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As the importance of drafting and developing talent takes precedence in a hard cap league, PHR takes a look at how the first five picks from the 2016 NHL Draft fared nearly a calendar year after their selection.

#1: Auston Matthews – Toronto Maple Leafs

It almost seems silly writing about him since the Calder Trophy nominated center has been one of the major reasons the Leafs made the playoffs and have given the Capitals fits. Matthews had 69 points in 82 games (40-29) and was everything the Leafs could have hoped he would be. Matthews scored four goals in his debut, and though he had his share of rookie struggles, looked wise beyond his very young age on the ice. Already in the playoffs, Matthews has four points in five games in the playoffs (3-1) and will certainly lead this team to a contender status in the years to come.

#2: Patrik Laine – Winnipeg Jets

Hardly a consolation prize, Laine is also a Calder Trophy finalist and finished the season with 64 points (36-28) but it was individual performances that garnered attention. Laine registered three hat tricks this season, and in a strictly point-per-game glance, Laine led Matthews and every other rookie this season.  Should Winnipeg improve their fortunes, Laine has the game breaking ability to take a talented team deep into the playoffs.

Oct 19, 2016; Winnipeg, Manitoba, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews (34) chases Winnipeg Jets right wing Patrik Laine (29) during the third period at MTS Centre. Winnipeg won 5-4 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Fedyck-USA TODAY Sports

#3: Pierre-Luc Dubois – Columbus Blue Jackets

One of only two players in the top ten to not spend time with the big club, Dubois split time with Cape Breton and Blainville-Boisbriand in the QMJHL. He didn’t disappoint. Combined, the left winger had 55 points in 48 games (21-34) and has been dynamic in the President’s Cup playoffs, posting 14 points (5-9) in 11 games. The Armada are currently in the semi-finals against Charlottetown (trailing 1-0), and if his current performance is any indication, Dubois could find himself breaking camp with the Blue Jackets next fall.

#4: Jesse Puljujarvi – Edmonton Oilers

Puljujarvi was sent down in early January after making the team out of camp, and his numbers in Bakersfield were respectable: 28 points (12-16) in 39 games and the opportunity to play real minutes instead of playing limited time in Edmonton. Puljujarvi appears to be a rising star, and the extra seasoning should help. His play will continue as he was loaned to Finland’s national team to play in the World Championships.

#5: Olli Juolevi – Vancouver Canucks

Juolevi spent the season with the London Knights, racking up 42 points (10-32) in 58 games. His point total matched his 2015-16 results, with the exception of adding a goal. Juolevi scored the game winning goal in the first round of the OHL playoffs against Windsor that sent the Knights onto the second round, where they ultimately lost to Erie in seven games. During their 14 game run, Juolevi had eight points (3-5). The smooth puck moving defenseman was the first blueliner taken in the draft, and could be a candidate to make the team next year as the Canucks will be retooling their roster with more youth.

NHL Names Calder Trophy Finalists

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The NHL released the Calder Trophy finalists for the 2016-17 season, reports Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman. The finalists for the NHL’s rookie of the year award are: Winnipeg Jets forward Patrik Laine, Toronto Maple Leafs forward Auston Matthews, and Columbus Blue Jackets defensman Zach Werenski.

Most hockey minds agreed that the Calder race was between Laine and Matthews, with outside runs by Werenski, Toronto Maple Leafs forwards William Nylander and Mitch Marner, and Pittsburgh Penguins goaltender Matt Murray. It was a tough year to be a skilled rookie as many impressive performances were overshadowed by Laine’s and Matthews’ excellent season.

Matthews finished the season with 40G and 29A in 82 games, breaking the Maple Leafs record for most goals by a rookie. 32 of those goals came on 5-vs-5, usually centering a line with rookies Zach Hyman and Connor Brown. Matthews averaged .84 points per game

Finnish rookie Laine scored 36G and 28A in 73 games while suffering a concussion midway through the season, and 27 of those goals were even-strength. Laine finished with .88 points per game.

Rounding up the trio is Blue Jackets defenseman Werenski. The American-native scored 11G and 36A in 78 games for the Blue Jackets while averaging just under 21 minutes a night. Werenski manned the second-pairing for Columbus, and quarterbacked the first-line powerplay.

Any of the above three would be well-suited to win the award. Matthews lived up to the expectations of a first overall pick, Laine excited Winnipeg crowds with his laser shot, and Werenski provided maturity beyond his years as a rookie defenseman on the NHL’s most surprising team. Fans will find out who won on June 21, 2017 when the NHL hosts its annual award show in Las Vegas, Nevada.

 

Coaching Notes: Stars, Maurice, Kings

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The Stars didn’t waste any time making a coaching change when the season came to an end as they let Lindy Ruff go on Sunday and GM Jim Nill admitted to 1310 AM in Dallas that he did give consideration to making an in-season change before ultimately deciding against it (transcription via the Dallas Morning News):

“He (Ruff) deserved a chance to try to get this team into the playoffs. I’m not a big guy into making changes during the season unless there’s really something that’s standing out.  There were no names out there, and I get back to I think Lindy deserved the chance to try and get this team in the playoffs.”

Ruff had a 165-122-41 record over his four seasons in Dallas and he now finds himself among the most experienced coaches on the market; he has been behind an NHL bench as a head coach every season since 1997-98.  As for Nill, he noted back when Ruff was let go that the search for his replacement had already started and that he could move quickly to hire someone.

Other coaching notes from around the league:

  • While some wondered if Jets head coach Paul Maurice would be among those let go throughout the NHL on Monday, GM Kevin Cheveldayoff told reporters, including Ken Wiebe of the Winnipeg Sun, that Maurice has his full support heading into next season. However, no talks regarding a potential contract extension have happened yet as the bench boss heads into the final year of his current deal.  For his part, Maurice noted that he is “completely comfortable” heading into next season without an extension as he has been in that situation several times over the years.
  • The Kings announced (Twitter link) that they’ve relieved assistant coach Davis Payne of his duties.  Earlier in the day, general manager Rob Blake stated he had ha not yet decided whether or not the team would retain Payne or John Stevens, notes Helene Elliott of the LA Times. Payne had been with the Kings since 2012-13 under former head coach Darryl Sutter.  He has some experience as an NHL head coach having spent time behind the bench with St. Louis for parts of three seasons.

Jets Notes: Trouba, Enstrom, Perreault

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At the time he signed his two year bridge deal back in November, the expectation remained that Jets defenseman Jacob Trouba would eventually be traded even though he had rescinded his trade request.  Speaking with reporters today, including Ted Wyman of the Winnipeg Sun, the blueliner stated that he’s happy in Winnipeg and is open to discussing an extension this summer:

“I’ve got no problem with Winnipeg and I think I’ve made that pretty clear. The contract is a two-way street and both sides have to come to together and agree on something. It’s not completely me, it’s not completely them. It’s a mutual thing.  It’s not a super pressing issue, I don’t think. I’ve just got to play out next year and see where it goes.”

Trouba had his best season in 2016-17, collecting a career high 33 points despite playing in only 60 games while averaging just shy of 25 minutes per night, also a career mark.  He’s eligible to sign a long-term extension as of July 1st; if he doesn’t sign one, he’ll be due a qualifying offer of $3.5MM following the 2017-18 campaign.

Other notes out of Winnipeg:

  • Blueliner Toby Enstrom declined to comment as to whether or not he has been asked by management to waive his no-move clause or even if he’d consider doing so, notes Mike Sawatsky of the Winnipeg Free Press. With the team wanting to protect Trouba, Dustin Byfuglien (who also has a NMC), and Tyler Myers in expansion, Enstrom’s clause would force the Jets to protect eight skaters instead of the standard 7/3/1 that most teams will use.  The veteran reiterated that he’s happy in Winnipeg and wants to stay for next season.  He has one year left on his contract with a $5.75MM cap charge which may be too rich for Vegas to take but Enstrom may not want to take the chance.
  • Also in Sawatsky’s column, left winger Mathieu Perreault revealed that he had spoken with management regarding the expansion draft and indicated that he was told that the team will try to do everything they can to protect him. Perreault, whose four year, $16MM extension kicks in next season, has been a popular pick as a player that the Golden Knights could potentially select and slot into their top six.   He posted a career high in points this season with 45 despite missing 17 games due to injury.

Minor Transactions: Last Day Of The Regular Season

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The Washington Capitals, who have long since clinched the President’s Trophy for the best record in the NHL this season, have next to nothing to play for in their 2016-17 regular season finale. What better use for such a game than to reward a time-tested contributor to the organization. The Capitals announced today that they have recalled Garrett Mitchell, as well as Chandler Stephenson, from the AHL’s Hershey Bears for the last game of the season. Mitchell, the Hersey captain, will make his NHL debut at 25 after being a sixth-round selection of the Capitals back in 2009. Far from an offensive juggernaut, Mitchell is instead a physical two-way forward who makes up for his lack of points by sticking up for the Bears’ younger players and leading by example in his own end. It is a classy move by Washington to give a player who has worked hard for the organization a brief glimpse at NHL life, even though his ceiling appears to be a nothing more than a fourth-line player at this time.

Around the league, the transactions are coming in fast:

  • Washington’s opponent tonight is the Florida Panthers and newly-recalled young goalie Sam Brittain. It remains to be seen if Brittain will make his NHL debut tonight, but he’ll at least be on the bench as Florida announced that the 24-year-old had been promoted from the AHL’s Springfield Thunderbirds for the game. Brittain has played mostly in the ECHL this season and is far from being a regular NHLer any time soon, but will at least get a look at big league action in the season finale.
  • Another goalie getting a rare look at the highest level is the New York Rangers’ Magnus Hellberg. Buried behind all-world keeper Henrik Lundqvist and one of the more reliable backups in the league, Antti Raanta, Hellberg was surely excited to hear that he had been called up from the AHL’s Hartford Wolf Pack. Hellberg, 26, has never started an NHL game and that won’t change tonight as Raanta gets the call for the Rangers. However, Hellberg has seen the ice three times in his career and has strung together several strong AHL seasons in a row, so gaining some more experience tonight, even from the bench, brings him closer to an NHL future.
  • A goalie headed the other way today is the Montreal Canadiens’ Charlie Lindgren. Despite nothing but success in his few NHL appearances early in his young career, the Habs are set in net with Carey Price and Al Montoya. Lindgren will have to wait for opportunity to strike for a longer stint with the Canadiens, as he’ll head back down to the AHL and the St. John’s Ice Caps alongside defenseman Brett Lernout, the team announced.
  • Another pair headed back to the minors are Winnipeg Jets’ prospects Kyle Connor and Nelson Nogier. Following their season finale yesterday, the Jets decided today to return the duo to the AHL’s Manitoba Moose to get some final play time in this season. While the Jets expected more than five points in 20 games from Connor in his rookie season, after being a Hobey Baker finalist for the University of Michigan last year, expect him to play a major role for Winnipeg in 2017-18.
  • Another player set to take on a major role next year is Philadelphia Flyers defenseman Robert Hagg. Fans can get a preview of the prospect-studded blue line that Philly is likely to roll out in 2017-18 when Hagg makes his NHL debut today. The team announced his recall this morning from the AHL’s Lehigh Valley Phantoms, and he will skate alongside the likes of Shayne Gostisbehere and Ivan Provorov tonight and Travis Sanheim and Samuel Morin as well next year in a truly impressive collection of young talent.
  • Across the state, the Pittsburgh Penguins are planning on resting some of their players today – those that aren’t already injured anyway – and have called up a trio of players from the AHL’s Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins to help fill the voids. Oskar Sundqvist and Derrick Pouliot, two names familiar to Penguins fans, will return to the lineup, while Jean-Sebastien Dea will make his NHL debut. A longtime WBS contributor, Dea’s work ethic and consistency has finally earned him his first shot at the pros for a team that is in desperate need of depth that can step up their play.
  • Pittsburgh’s Round One opponent, the Columbus Blue Jackets, are adding some promising young talent of their own in forward Sonny Milano. The team announced that they had promoted the 2014 first-rounder from the AHL’s Cleveland Monsters and that he will get the call today against the Toronto Maple Leafs as the Jackets look to reverse their recent luck before the postseason gets underway. Milano has only skated in three games with Columbus this season, but leads the Monsters in scoring with 46 points in 61 games.
  • The St. Louis Blues announced that they have recalled defenseman Chris Butler from the AHL’s Chicago Wolves. However, Butler’s return to the NHL lineup may be overshadowed by the possibility that Vladimir Sobotka could also make his season debut after a long hiatus from the team while playing in the KHL.
  • With an extremely disappointing season finally over in Dallas, the Stars have moved a slew of players back down to the AHL’s Texas Stars to give them some play time before the end of the season. Forwards Jason Dickinson, Mark McNeill, Gemel Smith, Denis Gurianov, and Remi Elie and defenseman Julius Honka will all head back to Texas, a team that, like its affiliate, has no chance at the playoffs either.

More to come throughout the final day of the 2016-17 season

NCAA All-American Teams Named

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Prior to the reveal of University of Denver defenseman Will Butcher as the 2017 Hobey Baker Award-winner and ahead of the NCAA championship game tomorrow night, the American Hockey Coaches Association released the rosters of this year’s collegiate All-American Teams. The teams, first and second squads from either side of the country, are listed below with their NCAA teams as well as NHL-drafted or signed organization, if applicable:

East All-Americans

First Team:

RW Zach Aston-Reese, Northeastern (Pittsburgh Penguins)

RW Spencer Foo, Union

C Mike Vecchione, Union (Philadelphia Flyers)

D Adam Fox, Harvard (Calgary Flames)

D Charlie McAvoy, Boston University (Boston Bruins)

G Charles Williams, Canisius

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Western Prospect Notes: Lagesson, Roslovic, Phillips

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The Edmonton Oilers have signed their fourth-round pick from the 2014 draft, inking William Lagesson to a three-year, entry-level deal. After two seasons at the University of Massechusetts-Amherst, the Swedish defenseman has decided to turn pro. While he’s never been much of an offensive contributor, he was a key part of a blueline and logged tough minutes in the defensive end.

Lagesson was actually the second selection of the draft for the Oilers that year, as they didn’t have their second or third round picks. The first selection? None other than Leon Draisaitl who has already made a big impact in the NHL. While Lagesson will never quite reach those heights, the Oilers are hoping a second member from their 2014 group can reach the NHL level.

  • Jack Roslovic and Eric Comrie are both headed back down to the Manitoba Moose after their NHL debuts on Thursday night. Comrie stopped 34 of 38 shots for his first NHL win, while Roslovic played just over eight minutes and was held scoreless. While the pair will focus on their game at the AHL level for the time being, don’t underestimate the impact they’ll have at the NHL level sooner than later. Both players represent solid prospects in a system full of them, and should be knocking on the door as soon as next season.
  • The Moose have also signed Michael Spacek to an amateur tryout for the remainder of the season after his huge breakout in the WHL. Spacek exploded for 85 points in 59 games and scored another 12 in the Red Deer Rebels’ hard fought series loss at the hands of the Lethbridge Hurricanes. He also impressed for the Czech Republic at the World Juniors, his third such tournament for his home country. Spacek is a very interesting prospect for the Jets going into next year, as he’ll turn just 20 years old on Sunday. His offensive game has no ceiling, and he could easily turn into a legitimate scoring threat in the AHL as a rookie next year.
  • The Calgary Flames won’t be left behind, as they’ve also signed an interesting name to an amateur deal. Matthew Phillips—he of the 50 goal season—has signed an ATO with the Stockton Heat and will spend a little time with them before heading back to junior next year. Despite turning 19 yesterday, Phillips still only weighs in at a paltry 151 lbs. It will be extremely difficult for him to succeed at the professional level with his 5’7″ frame, but if anyone can do it perhaps he can. Phillips has scored at every level so far, including a 40 goal campaign in bantam hockey when he was 14—while playing only 33 games.

Winnipeg Jets Sign Jansen Harkins To Three-Year ELC

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The Winnipeg Jets have signed second-round pick Jansen Harkins to a three-year, entry-level contract worth $925K each season in the NHL. The team also announced that he will join the Manitoba Moose for the remainder of the year on an amateur tryout. Perhaps the Jets front office were reading PHR yesterday, when we pointed out that Harkins was the highest drafted player whose exclusive negotiating rights would expire on June 1st.

The big center has completed his fourth year with the Prince George Cougars of the WHL, where he bounced back from a disappointing 2015-16 campaign. With 72 points in 64 games he once again topped the point-per-game mark, though it likely wasn’t his offensive development that the Jets were happiest with. Harkins has shown flashes of an excellent defensive game, and projects as a solid two-way center for the team down the line should he continue on his current development path.

Harkins joins Kyle Connor and Jack Roslovic from the 2015 draft for the Jets, who are quietly stockpiling young talent and creating a pipeline of forwards to go along with their strong defense core. Perhaps even with their recent crowning as the worst free agent destination, they’ll be able to create a winning tradition in a city that desperately hungers for it.

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