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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Vancouver Canucks

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2022-23 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Vancouver Canucks

Current Cap Hit: $85,261,667 (over the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Nils Hoglander (one year, $891.7K)
F Andrei Kuzmenko (one year, $950K, UFA)
F Vasily Podkolzin (two years, $925K)

Potential Bonuses
Hoglander: $300K
Kuzmenko: $850K
Podkolzin: $850K
Total: $2MM

Kuzmenko had several suitors in the spring following a strong season in the KHL that saw him put up 53 points in 45 games.  If he’s able to lock down a spot in the top nine, the Canucks will get a good return on this deal and he’ll have a chance to hit some of his ‘A’ bonuses.  Notably, Kuzmenko will be an unrestricted free agent next summer again and obviously, his showing this coming season will dictate the level of interest he gets next time around.

Podkolzin’s first NHL season was a solid one as he was a capable secondary scorer with 26 points in 79 games while mostly playing only at even strength.  He should have a similar role in 2022-23 which wouldn’t have him on the trajectory for a pricey second deal; a bridge contract would be the likelier route for him.  A similar role will make it tough to reach his ‘A’ bonuses as well.  Hoglander took a step back in his sophomore year and dropped down the depth chart.  With the extra depth that they’ve brought in, his production will likely be limited, pointing him in the direction of a bridge deal as well that might check in around double his current price tag.  He probably won’t hit his ‘A’ bonus but the $87.5K in games played is achievable.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

D Kyle Burroughs ($750K, UFA)
D Travis Dermott ($1.5MM, RFA)
F Justin Dowling ($750K, UFA)
F Micheal Ferland ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Bo Horvat ($5.5MM, UFA)
D Brady Keeper ($762.5K, UFA)
D Luke Schenn ($850K, UFA)

Horvat has been a reliable two-way pivot for most of his career and has been playing on a below-market contract for the last few years.  That’s likely to change next summer when he’ll be one of the top centers on the open market.  Adding a couple million to his current price tag is doable.  Ferland missed all of the last two seasons with concussion issues and won’t play this year either.  He’ll be on LTIR which will help get Vancouver back into cap compliance.  Dowling split last season between the NHL and AHL and is the type of depth player that could stick around for another couple of years at the minimum.

Dermott has had a quiet couple of seasons now and this feels like a make-or-break situation for him.  If he can establish himself as a capable secondary producer from the back end and stabilize the third pairing, he could land a small raise next summer beyond his $1.75MM qualifying offer.  If not, he’s a non-tender candidate.  Schenn showed himself to be capable of being a regular on the back end last season after being more of a reserve player and that could generate a stronger market next summer and push him past the $1MM mark.  Keeper and Burroughs will be battling for a spot at the end of the roster but both are players that will be unlikely to land much beyond the minimum on their next contracts.

Signed Through 2023-24

F Jason Dickinson ($2.65MM, UFA)
G Spencer Martin ($762.5K, UFA)
D Tyler Myers ($6MM, UFA)
F Tanner Pearson ($3.25MM, UFA)
F Elias Pettersson ($7.35MM, UFA)
D Jack Rathbone ($825K, RFA)

Pettersson opted for a bridge contract last summer which helped Vancouver to stay cap-compliant and give them a little more flexibility in the short term.  However, the contract is significantly backloaded and carries a qualifying offer of $8.82MM next summer (the lower of 120% of the AAV or the final year’s salary of $10.25MM).  At this point, the 23-year-old is well on his way to being worth that qualifying amount but the Canucks will likely need to come in above that to get him to commit to a long-term agreement.  Otherwise, he could simply opt to take the minimum offer and test the open market in 2025.  Horvat’s deal is the priority right now but Pettersson’s situation looms large from a planning perspective.

Pearson improved upon his performance from the year before but it was still a notch below how he did in his first full season with the Canucks.  On its own, the contract isn’t an overpayment but the market has been tight for middle-six wingers lately so there’s no guarantee he’ll be able to get that two years from now.  Dickinson’s first season with Vancouver was a disaster.  Brought in to be the third-line center, he instead struggled mightily, putting up the worst full-season numbers of his career.  At this point, he’s a candidate to be waived in training camp (which would still leave a lingering $1.525MM cap charge).

Myers hasn’t lived up to his contract from a value standpoint but he has logged some heavy minutes in a top-three role since joining the Canucks three years ago.  His offensive game has tailed off which won’t help his market two years from now but he should still be able to land a multi-year deal in the $4MM range in 2024.  Rathbone is another player that will be in the mix for a roster spot with Vancouver in training camp and notably received a one-way deal for both years despite having limited NHL experience.  He has the offensive ability to put up some numbers that could quickly escalate his salary two years from now if he’s able to lock down a regular role in the lineup.

Martin has very limited NHL experience with just nine appearances under his belt, six of which came last season where he did well enough to earn the backup nod.  If the 27-year-old can establish himself as a capable full-time backup based on performance and not his contract, there will be an opportunity to add a couple of million or more on his next deal.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Brock Boeser ($6.65MM, UFA)
F Curtis Lazar ($1MM, UFA)
D Tucker Poolman ($2.5MM, UFA)

Boeser’s case was one that had some pressure on it earlier this summer when the qualifying offer deadline was getting close.  In the end, he took less than that number ($7.5MM) in exchange for a three-year commitment.  Boeser produced closer to the level of a second-liner last season and if that continues, this could wind up being an above-market contract.  Lazar comes over after spending last season with Boston on their fourth line and he’ll likely have the same role with Vancouver.  There really isn’t much risk with this deal; $1MM for a capable fourth liner is a fair price.

Poolman is someone whose availability is certainly in question as he continues to try to work his way back from a concussion.  When healthy, he is an option for the third pairing but if he’s unable to start the season, he could go on LTIR and simplify Vancouver’s short-term salary cap situation.

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Lots Of Pressure On Bruce Boudreau This Season

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  • Last season, Bruce Boudreau was the toast of the town in Vancouver as the new bench boss nearly led the Canucks to an improbable playoff appearance. Despite that, Adam Proteau of The Hockey News posits that the head coach is squarely on the hot seat for 2022-23.  The team is clearly in win-now mode and has returned its core from last season with a couple of additions and he wasn’t picked by current management as he was installed behind the bench before Patrik Allvin took over as GM.  Allvin declined to offer a contract extension after the season so Boudreau instead will coach on the final year of his deal.  Those factors will certainly put pressure on him early and often.

Miller's No-Move Protection Only Starts July 1st

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As part of his seven-year, $56MM contract that was signed yesterday, Canucks forward J.T. Miller received a full no-move clause.  That in itself isn’t noteworthy but he was eligible to have it apply to the upcoming season as part of the contract as well since he’s of UFA age.  However, CapFriendly reports (Twitter link) that this was not the case.  As a result, Miller does not have any sort of trade protection between now and July 1st when the NMC kicks in so if things don’t do well next season or Vancouver decides to shake things up, Miller will be trade-eligible even with his new deal in place.

Brady Keeper Has Fully Recovered From Leg Injury From Last Season

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  • Canucks defenseman Brady Keeper has fully recovered from the broken leg he sustained back in training camp, notes Patrick Johnston of the Vancouver Province. The 26-year-old signed with Vancouver as an unrestricted free agent last summer and had a chance to push for a spot on the roster but instead, he wound up missing the entire year.  Depending on Tucker Poolman’s availability, Keeper could have a chance to push for the sixth or seventh spot on the back end in training camp.

Extension Candidate: Bo Horvat

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One down, one to go.  That’s the situation that the Canucks find themselves in when it comes to their impact 2023 unrestricted free agents.  J.T. Miller is now off the board after signing a seven-year, $56MM extension on Friday which allows them to now turn their focus to re-signing captain Bo Horvat.

It’s telling that while Miller had been in all sorts of trade speculation in the days, weeks, and even months leading up to his eventual extension, it has been the exact opposite for Horvat.  There has long been an expectation that the two sides would work something out and discussions are ongoing according to Sportsnet’s Iain MacIntyre.  But what might a new deal look like?

2021-22

Horvat quietly is coming off a career year in the goal department, surpassing the 30-goal mark for the first time in his career.  It didn’t affect his defensive game too much as he still took a regular turn on the penalty kill, logged nearly 20 minutes per night, and won the sixth-most faceoffs in the league.  Notably, over the final six weeks of the season when Vancouver was in the midst of trying to pull off quite the second-half comeback to get into the playoffs, Horvat was better than a point-per-game player, showing an ability to step up in crucial moments.  While they ultimately fell a little short of achieving that goal, it certainly wasn’t his fault while the improved production under Bruce Boudreau creates some optimism for what’s to come.

Statistics

2021-22: 70 GP, 31 goals, 21 assists, 52 points, +3 rating, 40 PIMS, 194 shots, 57.0% faceoffs, 19:31 ATOI
Career: 572 GP, 170 goals, 196 assists, 366 points, -68 rating, 188 PIMS, 1,294 shots, 53.6% faceoffs, 18:20 ATOI

The Market

Center has always been the premium position among the three forward spots with the extra responsibilities that are always placed on a middleman.  Horvat has more than handled those challenges well and certainly isn’t the type of player that a team could think about moving to the wing.  Plain and simple, he’s a center and top centers get paid big bucks in free agency or, at least, when they become eligible for free agency.

Last season was basically a continuation of what Horvat has been in his career.  He doesn’t necessarily produce like a number one center does but with all of the other elements he brings to the table, he gets to the level of a low-end number one or a high-end number two.  There is enough of an established marketplace for players like that to get a reasonable idea of what Horvat’s next deal is going to cost.

Comparable Contracts

Sean Couturier (Philadelphia) signed an eight-year, $62MM extension ($7.75MM AAV) a little over a year ago in the same spot that Horvat is now, a year away from UFA eligibility.  From a points-per-game perspective, they’re nearly identical (.638 for Couturier, .639 for Horvat) while both players have averaged close to 20 minutes per game in recent seasons while playing in all situations.  Couturier’s top offensive years have been better than Horvat’s which is worth noting although Horvat will be beginning his next deal at 28, one year younger than Couturier.

Brayden Schenn (St. Louis) is playing on an eight-year, $52MM deal ($6.5MM AAV) that was signed back in 2019.  His five-on-five production has been quite close to Horvat over the past few seasons but it’s worth noting that he doesn’t have the same defensive responsibilities that Horvat does.  The current-day equivalent of this contract is $6.584MM and with the extra roles that Horvat has, it’s safe to pencil this contract in as the floor when it comes to extension discussions.

Kevin Hayes (Philadelphia) received a bigger contract than many expected back in 2019 when he signed for seven years and $50MM ($7.142MM AAV).  He was coming off a career-best 55 points that summer and also was an all-situations player that often was on the second line offensively like Horvat.  Since then, his production has tapered off so Horvat’s camp would likely be looking to come in higher than this rate.  From a cap percentage perspective, a deal equal to this is worth just over $7.4MM per season today.

Tomas Hertl (San Jose) signed his extension last season, one that was worth $65.1MM over eight years ($8.1375MM AAV).  He’s the same age Horvat is now and only has one more 30-goal season that Horvat does.  The two were used very similarly last season and Hertl’s career point per game average (.661) is quite close to Horvat’s.  Some feel that this was an overpayment on the part of the Sharks but that doesn’t matter for Horvat’s camp who will undoubtedly be using this deal as a comparable in negotiations.  This is the high end of the scale for where his next contract should fall.

Dylan Larkin (Detroit) is also one to watch for but we don’t know his next contract yet as he’s in the same situation as Horvat.  The two are fairly similar – Larkin is a bit more productive, Horvat more involved defensively – and whichever one doesn’t sign first will quite likely be looking at the contract of the one that does sign as a viable comparable.

Projected Contract

Based on the above comparables, something above the current equivalent of Hayes’ deal and a little below Couturier’s appears to be a reasonable sweet spot for an agreement.  That would put the AAV in the $7.5MM (or slightly higher) range and he should be able to command a max-term agreement, either an eight-year one with Vancouver or a seven-year one elsewhere.

The big question that Canucks GM Patrik Allvin will have to ponder is whether they can afford Horvat’s next deal in their cap structure.  Miller checks in at $8MM on his new deal which pushes their commitment in 2023-24 to nearly $69MM to 14 players.  The Upper Limit is only expected to go up to $83.5MM for 2024-24 so Horvat would be taking up close to 60% of their remaining space.  Fitting everyone else in would be a challenge.

Vancouver also has to keep in mind that Elias Pettersson’s qualifying offer two years from now is $8.82MM (120% of his $7.35MM cap hit).  While Pettersson has spent a lot of time on the wing, he’s also a natural center and spending over $24MM on three centers could be a luxury that they can’t afford.  That shouldn’t affect Horvat’s specific situation unless he’s willing to leave money on the table to stay but they’ll be factoring in their own cap situation in discussions with their captain over the coming weeks and months.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Vancouver Canucks Extend J.T. Miller

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After a summer of trade rumors, it seems the J.T. Miller saga has reached its conclusion. The Vancouver Canucks announced today that their star center has signed a seven-year, $56MM contract carrying an $8MM AAV.

As mentioned, this deal comes after an offseason where Miller, who was set to hit unrestricted free agency next summer, was a frequent target of all sorts of trade rumors and speculation. Last month, we covered how Miller’s representation had made it clear that they would be cutting off all contract talks once the 2022-23 season began. So, that upcoming deadline might have moved the pace of contract talks forward. The Canucks might have paid attention to what happened to the Calgary Flames with their own star forward, Johnny Gaudreau after Gaudreau took a similar stance last season and cut off extension talks once the 2021-22 season began. Gaudreau left for Columbus in the summer, and the Flames had to scramble to find a replacement as a result.

With this extension signed, the Canucks have avoided a similar fate. This deal is one of extreme significance for the Canucks. First and foremost, they have locked in their star centerman for what could end up being the rest of his playing days. Miller will be 30 when the contract begins, and by the time it finishes he could be at or near the end of his NHL career.

With that in mind, the seven-year term might concern fans of the Canucks. It’s unlikely that Miller will be worth the $8MM cap hit he’ll command when he’s past the age of 35. That being said, though, it’s not a certainty that he’ll be an ineffective player, and the expected rise of the cap could limit the damage of this deal in its later years. If Miller can age as gracefully as Claude Giroux, for example, who received a three-year deal at a $6.5MM cap hit despite turning 35 in January, then the term will be less of an issue. But he’ll need to stay in top shape in order to do so.

The benefit of this seven-year term, though, is that the cap hit of the deal is lower than some might have expected for a player of Miller’s caliber. Miller was extremely productive last season, scoring 32 goals and 99 points in 80 games. He was an elite offensive force, showcasing the ability to take over shifts and elevate the play of his linemates.

If Miller can continue to produce at around a point-per-game rate, Miller will be underpaid at an $8MM cap hit. Miller’s cap hit is lower than that of Sharks center Tomas Hertl, who has a career-high of 74 points, and identical to that of Ryan Johansen, who has crossed the 70-point plateau just once in his career. To put it simply, Miller’s market value is higher than the $8MM he’s being paid, which, at least in the short-to-medium term, is a win for the Canucks. It’s just the final few years of this deal that pose the most downside risk.

Looking at this more broadly, the contract has major implications for the Canucks franchise as a whole. This is not an extension a team signs if they are looking to re-tool or rebuild. This is an extension that a team signs when they want to capitalize on the next few years. With this extension, the Canucks have seemingly given themselves a green light to operate in a win-at-all-costs manner in the short term. For a franchise still waiting on its first Stanley Cup victory, that’s a sensible choice to make.

The challenge for the Canucks with this contract comes in terms of how it impacts the rest of GM Patrik Allvin’s roster construction. The team’s captain and second-line center, Bo Horvat, is set to hit free agency next summer. With Miller now extended, Elias Pettersson capable of playing center, and other long-term contracts already on their books for Quinn Hughes, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Conor Garland, and Ilya Mikheyev, will the Canucks be able to finalize a Horvat extension? Should they?

That’s an issue for the team to solve after next season, and perhaps the answer can come in the form of shedding their relatively highly-priced middle-of-the-lineup players such as Tanner Pearson and Jason Dickinson. For this season, the mandate for coach Bruce Boudreau is clear: win as many games as possible and try to go on a playoff run. There are those who believed the Canucks would be best served to enter into a rebuild, and with this contract, it’s clear that’s not the direction the organization will pursue.

Will it work out for them? At this point, we don’t know. But what we do know is that the Canucks have found a way to retain one of their most talented players for what could end up being the rest of his playing days.

There will be those who don’t like the cost of this contract or the term that’s attached, and that’s understandable. Retaining J.T. Miller’s services will cost the Canucks a lot of money over the next few years, and the team’s front office has chosen to accept the immense risks of that come along with that commitment. But if Allvin and team president Jim Rutherford want to give the Canucks the best possible chance of winning a Stanley Cup in the next couple of seasons, there really was no other choice they could make.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Latest On J.T. Miller, Bo Horvat

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As things currently stand, two of the Vancouver Canucks’ most important players are slated to hit unrestricted free agency. One of them, Bo Horvat, is the Canucks’ captain and heart-and-soul two-way center. The other is J.T. Miller, the Canucks’ leading scorer by a large margin and most accomplished offensive player.

The Athletic’s Thomas Drance and Rick Dhaliwal issued updates on the situations of both players today. (subscription link) For Horvat, the landscape is relatively simple. The team wants to retain its captain, and Horvat by all accounts wants to remain with the only NHL franchise he has ever played for. Drance and Dhaliwal report that there was a “sense of optimism” earlier this summer that an extension between Horvat and the Canucks would be completed relatively quickly, but that hasn’t happened yet. Now, it seems there is “somewhat less optimism than there had been in late June” that a deal will be reached shortly.

It still remains the overwhelming probability that Horvat re-signs in Vancouver, but the lack of any news on positive progress towards a new deal is notable. Horvat, 27, is an accomplished two-way center who scored a career-high 31 goals last season. If Horvat looks at Kevin Hayes’ long-term contract with the Flyers, a deal that costs over $7MM per year, and the twin $8MM AAV deals the San Jose Sharks are paying Logan Couture and Tomas Hertl, he may decide that a deal at or around $7MM AAV is what he wants on his next contract.

With many major contracts already on their books and a looming extension for Elias Pettersson due in two years’ time, it would be understandable if the Canucks are hesitant to go that far for Horvat, a great player but not a franchise centerpiece. That being said, a loss of Horvat would leave a significant hole in the Canucks’ roster, especially if the team is set on playing Pettersson as a winger moving forward.

Much of what happens with Horvat, then, could depend on the fate of Miller. With a 99-point season under his belt, Miller is in an extremely strong negotiating position. He’s been a truly elite talent as a Canuck, and likely wants to be compensated with a contract that reflects the value he’s put forth these past few seasons.

The challenge with Miller for the Canucks, then, is if he’s worth the massive contract he’s earned and, more importantly, if giving him such a lucrative extension that covers his thirties is appropriate for a team whose core base of talent is still in their early-to-mid twenties.

Drance and Dhaliwal report that the Canucks privately “continue to insist that retaining Miller is their preference.” Even so, Miller’s own preferences could throw a wrench in the possibility of him remaining in Vancouver. Miller’s agent, Brian Bartlett, told The Athletic that Miller’s camp will “opt to cut off all discussions on a new contract once the regular season commences.” Such a stance might look familiar to some fans, as it’s the route Johnny Gaudreau took this past season while negotiating with the Calgary Flames.

Gaudreau eventually left the Flames and signed elsewhere, and that could be the position the Canucks are in a year from now if they stay the current course with Miller.

So, that brings up the question that will likely serve as the major storyline for the Canucks’ season, at least until a resolution is found. Do the Canucks settle on trading Miller if an extension isn’t reached by the start of the season? Would the Canucks, who still haven’t gone through a full season with their new front office and coaching staff, keep an unextended Miller past the deadline in the hopes that he’ll boost their competitive chances?

Those are the major questions facing the Canucks so far, and the first domino could fall if an extension for Horvat is finalized before the start of the season. Whichever route the Canucks opt to go down, it’s likely that the 2022-23 season will be one of great consequence for the Canucks’ organization.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Canucks Reportedly Interested In Calvin de Haan

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The bulk of the Vancouver Canucks’ offseason work looks complete. A few new faces have been brought in, some players have departed, and a few major pending free agent situations still loom large, unlikely to be solved in the near future. But even though they’re largely ready for next season, the Canucks’ new regime led by Jim Rutherford and Patrik Allvin isn’t done looking to make tweaks to their roster, even as we near the end of August.

Per Thomas Drance and Rick Dhaliwal of The Athletic, the Canucks are “still listening on the trade market and kicking some tires on some of the unrestricted free agent talent” that’s still on the market. (subscription link) The two report that the Canucks are “among a small group of teams still in the mix” for unrestricted free agent defenseman Calvin de Haan, and that the team has made adding some extra support to its blueline the priority at this stage of the offseason. With defender Tucker Poolman’s health status uncertain, adding a proven veteran defenseman such as de Haan would be a sensible move for a Vancouver side that wants to pick up where they left off last season under coach Bruce Boudreau.

Canucks Face Challenges For Putting Micheal Ferland On In-Season LTIR

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  • Thomas Drance of The Athletic examines (subscription link) some of the challenges that the Canucks will be facing in order to place Micheal Ferland on in-season LTIR in 2022-23. While Vancouver has several waiver-exempt players, their performance bonuses make the simplest idea of papering them down for a day not practical.  Accordingly, they might have to waive some roster players late in training camp to make the finances work.  Offseason LTIR is an option but most teams prefer to avoid that route and make an in-season placement but that will be a bit of a challenge for them.

Nazem Kadri's Contract Could Serve As An Important Comparison In J.T. Miller Negotiations

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  • CHEK’s Rick Dhaliwal appeared on the Sekeres and Price podcast to discuss the impact that Nazem Kadri’s free agent deal will have on 2023 UFA and current Vancouver Canucks forward J.T. Miller. In sum, Dhaliwal told the pair, “Kadri’s agent did J.T. Miller’s agent a favor,” referencing the seven year, $49MM contract Kadri signed with the Calgary Flames. Looking a little deeper at what Dhaliwal means, Kadri is about to turn 32 years of age, coming off a career-best 87 points in 71 games, crushing his previous career-best of 61 points in 82 games back in 2016-17. If Kadri, who is a year-and-a-half older than Miller will be next summer, can secure a seven-year deal after one 87-point season, “there is no way Miller will accept anything under seven or eight years.” While there’s never been anything stopping Miller from setting that as his asking price, Kadri’s contract simply helps Miller make his own case for at least the same, if not a better contract. Miller is coming off his own career-best of 99 points in 80 games, but also boasts an impressive 46 points in 53 games and 72 points in 69 games the two seasons prior. Still, it will be up to Miller to have another stellar performance like he did this year if he wants to easily secure a contract greater than Kadri’s.

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