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Montreal Canadiens Win 2022 NHL Draft Lottery

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Beginning this season, the full effect of the changes to the draft lottery rules announced last year are in place. Starting this year, teams can only move up a maximum of 10 spots if they’re selected, meaning teams originally set at picks 12, 13, 14, 15, and 16 cannot move up all the way to the first overall pick. A win for one of these teams in the first draft lottery secures the pick for the team that finished last.

The team with the best odds coming in will win the draft lottery for the second straight year, though. The Montreal Canadiens will pick first overall in their own building, the first time such an occurrence has happened since 1985 when the Toronto Maple Leafs drafted Wendel Clark at Maple Leaf Gardens. The New Jersey Devils moved up from fifth overall to second overall, bumping down the Arizona Coyotes, Seattle Kraken, and Philadelphia Flyers down one spot each.

The order for the top 16 picks of the 2022 NHL Draft is as follows:

  1. Montreal Canadiens
  2. New Jersey Devils
  3. Arizona Coyotes
  4. Seattle Kraken
  5. Philadelphia Flyers
  6. Columbus Blue Jackets (via Chicago Blackhawks)
  7. Ottawa Senators
  8. Detroit Red Wings
  9. Buffalo Sabres
  10. Anaheim Ducks
  11. San Jose Sharks
  12. Columbus Blue Jackets
  13. New York Islanders
  14. Winnipeg Jets
  15. Vancouver Canucks
  16. Buffalo Sabres (via Vegas Golden Knights)

While Shane Wright is still the consensus no. 1 overall selection across public draft boards (and NHL Central Scouting), there’s been recent noise about players like Juraj Slafkovsky and Logan Cooley potentially challenging him for first overall. That’s an upset unlikely to happen, though, as Wright had a terrific second half of the 2021-22 campaign, finishing with 32 goals, 62 assists, and 94 points in 63 games with the OHL’s Kingston Frontenacs. He also has 10 points in eight playoff games at the time of writing. While teams will draft him for his elite playmaking ability, he’s got an underrated shot when he chooses to use it as well. Standout Slovak defenseman Simon Nemec, Czech defenseman David Jiricek, Canadian forward Matthew Savoie, and Finnish forward Joakim Kemell are also names to watch for near the top of the draft board.

Latest On Canucks’ Offseason Plans

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The Vancouver Canucks have lots of questions to answer this offseason. The most pressing one is whether they can get a deal done with head coach Bruce Boudreau, who has a negotiating window until June 1 but no contract extension in place just yet. The two sides have said all the right things when it comes to working together and will have to iron out a deal if the veteran coach is to stay put. It certainly seems like he’s going to be sticking around though, as Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reported yesterday on CHEK TV that Boudreau was present (virtually) in the meeting with Russian free agent Andrei Kuzmenko.

Beyond the coaching situation though, more decisions are coming on players like Brock Boeser, Bo Horvat, and J.T. Miller. Currently, none of the three are signed past the 2022-23 season, with Boeser not even signed for next season yet. If the new management group wanted to shake up the core, those three are certainly avenues to consider.

Still, there is another name that earns big money in Vancouver and could potentially be part of a retooling effort. Friedman went on to tell Rick Dhaliwal of CHEK TV that the team is trying to find a trade market for Oliver Ekman-Larsson, just a year after acquiring him from the Arizona Coyotes.

Now 30, Ekman-Larsson is signed to a massive eight-year, $66MM contract that won’t expire until the summer of 2027. As part of it, he also owns a full no-movement clause that gives him total control of his situation. When the Coyotes made it clear that they wanted to move him, Ekman-Larsson gave just two teams that he would be willing to go to–the Canucks and the Boston Bruins. If Vancouver has now soured, it seems he would have to provide someone else if a trade is to occur. The Bruins, of course, found their own Swedish defenseman at the deadline, acquiring and extending Hampus Lindholm to a long-term deal.

It’s not that Ekman-Larsson had a terrible year, as he put up 29 points in 79 games while averaging more than 22 minutes a night. But the contract that was so happily acquired by the previous management group is a difficult one to deal with, even despite the Coyotes retaining a small portion. Vancouver already has nearly $70MM in cap hits committed to next season with just 13 players, making it tough to really add to the group if they wanted to.

Again, the veteran defenseman has full control in this situation. A buyout would be untenable at this point and even if the Canucks wanted to retain additional salary to facilitate trade, Ekman-Larsson would have to first accept the destination.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Snapshots: Scheifele, Sharks, Kuzmenko

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Despite some ominous comments earlier in the week, it turns out that Winnipeg Jets star Mark Scheifele did not request a trade in his exit interview with GM Kevin Cheveldayoff, reports Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman. Schiefele had expressed concern over the direction of the team after the Jets missed the playoffs this season, which raised some eyebrows in the media and across the league. Scheifele is signed through the next two seasons, so if he was unhappy enough with the situation, he would have had to request a trade, which likely would have occurred during his exit interview this week. Instead, the situation remains status quo in Winnipeg, at least for now. If the Jets, who have a lot of money tied up in long-term contracts, cannot find a way to improve the roster within their salary cap restrictions early this offseason, Scheifele’s position could change. The 29-year-old center has the ability and the contract to draw immense interest if he does hit the trade block this summer.

  • Friedman notes that another team who could be in the star trading business this offseason are the San Jose Sharks. The Sharks reportedly held preliminary trade discussions with multiple teams this season regarding Erik Karlsson, and those talks could continue over the summer. The Sharks need to first name a new general manager, for which a search is ongoing, but the expectation is that whoever the team hires will be directed to retool rather than rebuild. In order to get more competitive sooner rather than later, the Sharks need to add more high-end depth to their lineup and need more cap space to do so. Moving all or even part of Karlsson’s five remaining years at $11.5MM would help immensely and the trade return wouldn’t hurt either. However, is it realistic to expect the Sharks to find a team both willing and able to add Karlsson? Friedman suggests that Brent Burns, who has three years remaining at $8MM, might be easier to move and would still accomplish the task of redistributing a mass amount of cap space from the right side of the blue line to be used elsewhere in the lineup. The Sharks are also expected to evaluate their options with Marc-Edouard Vlasic this offseason, whose remaining four years at $7MM could prove impossible to move but could be bought out instead.
  • While the Jets and the Sharks will be looking for outside-the-box ways to improve this summer, neither team appears to be in the race for KHL free agent Andrei Kuzmenko. Friedman lists the Carolina Hurricanes, Edmonton Oilers, Nashville Predators, Vancouver Canucks, and Vegas Golden Knights as the finalists for the Russian winger’s services. Kuzmenko, 26, initially drew interest from at least 20 NHL teams, but now that his KHL contract has expired as of May 1 and he has begun actual negotiations, the list has been trimmed considerably. Kuzmenko is coming off of a career year in the KHL, recording 20 goals and 53 points in 45 games for SKA St. Petersburg, plus another 14 points in 16 playoff games. While he would be brand new to the NHL and his international experience is somewhat limited as well, Kuzmenko could be an affordable impact forward right away next season.

West Notes: Saros, Canucks Scouts, Kuzmenko

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While it was previously reported that there was some hope that injured Nashville Predators starting goaltender Juuse Saros would be able to play after the first two games of his team’s first-round series against the Colorado Avalanche, it seems that timeline may have been a bit optimistic. Today, Predators coach John Hynes announced that Saros would not be playing in game three and that rookie Connor Ingram will retain the starter’s crease. After a brutal overtime loss last night, the Predators have a crucial home contest on Saturday as they try to fight their way back into the series.

While this news is undoubtedly unfortunate for the Predators given their increasingly dire situation and Saros’ brilliance this year, there is one wrinkle to this storyline that could prove to be a positive for Nashville: the emergence of Ingram. The rookie started game 2 after season-long backup David Rittich’s game one implosion, and performed admirably. Ingram made some spectacular saves and finished with 49 saves on 51 shots, nearly carrying the Predators to a miracle road victory. If Saros’ injury is what puts Ingram into the spotlight and he raises his stock leaguewide considerably, perhaps that can be some consolation to the Predators faithful.

Now, for some other notes from across the league:

  • It has been a season of much change for the Vancouver Canucks, and today there was some shuffling in their scouting department. Thomas Drance of The Athletic reported that the Canucks have parted ways with four members of their amateur scouting department: Derek Richard, Tim Lenardon, Brandon Benning, and Pat Conacher. The Vancouver Sun’s Patrick Johnston added a fifth name to the departures, reporting that Ted Hempson is also leaving the organization.  That’s a decent number of scouts to leave at one time, and this development supports the idea that this new Canucks front office is seeking deep, substantive changes to the organization.
  • The courting process has begun with highly-touted KHL free agent Andrei Kuzmenko, and the landscape regarding his suitors is starting to take shape. The Edmonton Journal’s Jim Matheson reported that Oilers GM Ken Holland “may have talked to [Kuzmenko] personally” and that the team is interested in the point-per-game KHL scorer. In addition to the Oilers, CHEK’s Rick Dhaliwal reports that the Canucks interviewed Kuzmenko today, and that “there is good interest from both sides.” It was previously reported that as many as 20 teams could be actively interested in signing Kuzmenko, so it’s likely that reports like these concerning his recruitment process will continue to trickle in as the competition to secure his services heats up.

14 Teams Face Bonus Overages For 2022-23

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In the flat cap world, nearly every team in the league is dealing with situations that require every last dollar under the ceiling. More than half the league was using long-term injured reserve relief at some point this season, a decision that sometimes comes with some attached risk. One of those risks is the performance bonuses from entry-level contracts, which can cause overage penalties if achieved by the end of the season, should the team not have the cap space to fit them in. Those penalties are then applied to the following season’s cap, meaning they have less room to work with moving forward.

CapFriendly has calculated the overage penalties for the entire league, finding 14 of 32 teams that will face them next year. Notably, these penalties lower the cap ceiling for a team and therefore cannot be covered up by going into long-term injured relief again. The penalties are as follows:

Carolina Hurricanes: $112,500
Chicago Blackhawks: $237,500
Colorado Avalanche: $25,000
Dallas Stars: $675,000
Edmonton Oilers: $896,000
Florida Panthers: $637,500
Los Angeles Kings: $637,500
Montreal Canadiens: $1,132,500
New York Islanders $245,796
Philadelphia Flyers: $295,000
St. Louis Blues: $1,000,000*
Toronto Maple Leafs: $212,500
Vancouver Canucks: $1,250,000
Washington Capitals: $100,000

*Can still increase

Details on how each number was reached can be found on CapFriendly’s Twitter thread but the vast majority are from Schedule A performance bonuses for time on ice and games played. While some would argue that it is worth the penalty, as it means a young player has been a strong contributor, it can also be quite impactful moving forward. The Oilers, for instance, are facing a cap charge of nearly $900K, significantly more than the league minimum salary. It could very well mean they aren’t able to carry the maximum of 23 skaters for at least parts of next season while they are still trying to compete, thanks to the bonuses owed to Evan Bouchard this year.

It’s the Islanders that are perhaps the most interesting case since they did not finish in LTIR relief and in fact, were more than $2MM under the $81.5MM ceiling at the end of the year. While most of the other bonuses were on entry-level contracts, theirs included games played bonuses for Zach Parise, Zdeno Chara, and Andy Greene. That means despite being well out of the race, the Islanders will have a little less room to work with next season.

The Blues meanwhile could still face an additional overage, as their penalty is based on the bonuses given to Tyler Bozak. He can still earn $100K if the Blues win the first round and another $150K if they win the second round, which each would also be applied to next year’s cap.

Oliver Ekman-Larsson To Play In World Championship

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After a disappointing season in Vancouver, Oliver Ekman-Larsson is set to head overseas for a few weeks. The team announced today he’ll join Team Sweden for the upcoming 2022 IIHF World Championship.

Ekman-Larsson had a near career-low season, although his lows were previously set in shortened seasons. While he did improve defensively from his last few years in Arizona, he had just five goals and 29 points on the year, the only time he hasn’t hit 30+ points when playing 50+ games.

The veteran defenseman will look to reset this offseason, as the Canucks are still on the hook for his retained-salary $7.26MM cap hit through 2027.

Ekman-Larsson joins fellow NHLers Rasmus Dahlin, Erik Gustafsson, and Adam Larsson on the blueline. Other NHLers slated to join team Sweden are Rasmus Asplund, Emil Bemstrom, and Magnus Hellberg.

The tournament will run from May 13 to May 29.

Canucks Notes: Boudreau, Miller, Young Stars Classic

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With the Vancouver Canucks looking like a transformed team after swapping head coaches this season, it seemed unfathomable that the team wouldn’t be eager to extend Bruce Boudreau to a new contract. Yet, team general manager Jim Rutherford said today that the team isn’t willing to bring back Boudreau for longer than next season at this time. After a horrific start, the Canucks missed the playoffs by just five points and even recovered to post a positive goal differential on the season. However, it appears Rutherford wants to ensure this wasn’t a “flash in the pan” effect from Boudreau, as he did mention there were still areas of concern he had when watching the team this year. He’d like to see a full season under Boudreau before committing to him long-term with this core.

More out of the Canucks organization today:

Bruce Boudreau Hoping To Return As Canucks Head Coach

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Though it had been trending this way for quite a while, Vancouver Canucks head coach Bruce Boudreau made it very clear what his intentions are for next season. Boudreau has an option in his contract for next season, though it hadn’t been expressly stated that he even wanted to come back. Any debate was put to rest today, as he spoke with reporters during his end-of-year availability:

Listen I told Patrik (Allvin) and Jim (Rutherford) that I wanted to coach here next year. We’re just talking right now. Hopefully things get done, but I think they want me back, and I know I want to be back, so I think it should work out. 

While Boudreau failed in his bid to bring the Canucks all the way back to the playoffs, the work that he did do was incredibly impressive. The club was 8-15-2 when he took over in early December, last in the Pacific Division and so far from the playoffs that no one really expected them to even be competitive down the stretch. Then came the 2008 Jack Adams award winner, who found a formula that worked and led the Canucks to a 32-15-10 record. That .649 points percentage would have put the Canucks squarely between the Boston Bruins and Edmonton Oilers league-wide, had it been the pace for the entire season.

That kind of record isn’t anything new for Boudreau either. The veteran coach has routinely led his teams to outstanding regular season success, and he sits right near the top of the all-time list in terms of winning percentage. It is of course the postseason where he has still struggled, with his clubs rarely even progressing past the first round. In 2015, the Boudreau-led Anaheim Ducks came within one game of the Stanley Cup Final, but he hasn’t even sniffed the second round since.

Still, the change in leadership–both behind the bench and in the front office–has breathed new life and optimism into the Canucks organization. Boudreau is a big part of that, and many will see a core that still has the likes of Quinn Hughes, Elias Pettersson, and Thatcher Demko as a potential playoff candidate once again in the 2023-24 season.

NHL Announces 2022 Draft Lottery Odds

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With the conclusion of the 2022 regular season coming this afternoon after the Winnipeg Jets defeated the Seattle Kraken 4-3 in regulation, the entire league standings are finally settled, and so are the odds for the 2022 NHL Draft Lottery, which will take place on Tuesday, May 10th, at 6:30 pm ET. The odds, which increase in reverse order of the NHL standings, are as follows (link):

Montreal Canadiens – 18.5%
Arizona Coyotes – 13.5%
Seattle Kraken – 11.5%
Philadelphia Flyers – 9.5%
New Jersey Devils – 8.5%
Chicago Blackhawks* – 7.5%
Ottawa Senators – 6.5%
Detroit Red Wings – 6.0%
Buffalo Sabres – 5.0%
Anaheim Ducks – 3.5%
San Jose Sharks – 3.0%
Columbus Blue Jackets – 2.5%
New York Islanders – 2.0%
Winnipeg Jets – 1.5%
Vancouver Canucks – 0.5%
Vegas Golden Knights** – 0.5%

* As a result of the Seth Jones trade on July 23, 2021, Chicago will transfer their 2022 first-round pick to Columbus, unless it is a top-two pick, at which point they will transfer their 2023 first-round pick instead.

** As a result of the Jack Eichel trade on November 4, 2021, Vegas will transfer its 2022 first-round pick to Buffalo, unless it is a top-ten pick, at which point they will transfer their 2023 first-round pick instead.

As a reminder, the NHL announced changes to the rules for the operation of the draft lottery on March 23, 2021, which in effect limits the amount of spots certain teams may move up. Teams are not eligible to move up more than 10 spots in the lottery; so, only the eleven teams with the highest odds can receive the first-overall pick. For example, the San Jose Sharks have the potential to receive the first overall selection, however the Columbus Blue Jackets, who have the next-highest odds, cannot select any higher than second overall. In previous years, any team in the lottery was eligible to move up to the first, second, or third position.

Another change to the lottery this year will be that only two teams will be chosen in the lottery, unlike previous years when three were selected. Then, like previous years, the remaining teams will be awarded their selection in reverse order of the NHL standings. This change means that a team with the highest odds, this year Montreal, will be guaranteed a top-three selection, whereas they could drop to as low as fourth in previous lotteries.

Although the odds drop off steeply as the list goes on, the lottery is still worth paying attention to for fans of the lower teams. Sure, Montreal is much more likely to win one of the two lotteries than the Islanders or Jets, however previous teams with poor odds have prevailed, most notably including the 2017 Flyers and 2020 Rangers.

Nic Petan, Sheldon Dries Clear Waivers

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All three players placed on waivers yesterday, Michael Del Zotto (OTT), Sheldon Dries (VAN), and Nic Petan (VAN), cleared waivers today and can be assigned to their respective AHL clubs (link). Though these three do not belong to playoff teams in the NHL, their being sent to the AHL is not necessarily insignificant, as both the Belleville Senators and the Abbotsford Canucks, the AHL affiliates of the Ottawa Senators and Vancouver Canucks, respectively, have made the AHL’s Calder Cup playoffs.

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