- While Tampa Bay been active this summer signing players to extensions, they have not started discussions with center Brayden Point, reports Joe Smith of The Athletic (subscription required). The 22-year-old finished third on the Lightning in scoring last season with 66 points (32-34-66) in 82 games but with all of their commitments for next season already (nearly $66MM to just 12 players), it’s going to be difficult for them to work out a long-term deal without having to free up some extra room first. With that in mind, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the team pursue a bridge contract with Point next summer.
Lightning Rumors
Morning Notes: Gretzky, Avangard, Vasilevskiy
Today marks 30 years since the infamous Wayne Gretzky trade, which sent the best player in the history of hockey to the Los Angeles Kings. The deal stunned the sports world and changed the path of hockey in California, though Gretzky would never bring the Stanley Cup to Los Angeles. He would record 918 points in 539 games for the Kings though, and grow the game in an extremely non-traditional market.
Though the deal was (and is) seen as a pure sale of the greatest player in the world, the Oilers did receive some hockey assets in the deal. Jimmy Carson, Martin Gelinas and three first-round picks were included in the trade, along with a $15MM check. Carson would play just 84 games with the Oilers, while Gelinas didn’t really hit his stride until years later in Vancouver. Regardless of the outcomes for each team, the trade changed everything in hockey and spawned multiple generations of fans who will point to it as reason to believe anyone in the league can be traded at any time. After all, if Wayne Gretzky can be traded…
- The KHL, a league that Gretzky just agreed to lend his name to as the global ambassador for Kunlun Red Star, has decided that one of their teams will play home games more than 1,600 miles away from home. The arena for Avangard Omsk has been deemed not ready to host games this season, meaning the team will host their home games in the Moscow region on the other side of the country.
- The Tampa Bay Lightning seem to have a new superstar restricted free agent every offseason, and the summer of 2020 will be no different. Andrei Vasilevskiy is scheduled to become an RFA in two years meaning the team can start negotiating an extension as soon as July 1, 2019. In his latest for The Athletic, Joe Smith (subscription required) spoke with several agents around the league who do not represent the Russian goaltender who believe his eventual cap hit could come in between $8-8.5MM. According to one agent that’s if he doesn’t win the Stanley Cup and MVP, which would bump the number up into “[Carey] Price money.”
The Contract Each Team Would Most Like To Trade: Part III
Nearly every team has one of those players: a top talent they were excited to sign and never thought could do anything but help them. In hindsight, history shows that more often than not, expensive, long-term free agent contracts don’t work out. It may look good at first (or it may look bad right away to the outside observer), but players struggle to make their value last throughout a lengthy contract. Those contracts come back to bite teams and are hard to get rid of. As teams begin to finalize their rosters at this point in the off-season, many are struggling to make everyone fit under the salary cap and are regretting these past signings that exasperate a cap crunch that can be tough for even a mistake-free club. We already took a look at the first third and second third of the league; here are the contracts that each of the final ten teams would most like to trade, from Philadelphia to Winnipeg:
Philadelphia Flyers: Andrew MacDonald – two years, $10MM remaining
Based purely on salary versus what he brings to the table, Jori Lehtera’s $4.7MM contract is the worst on the Flyers. However, Philadelphia is far from cap trouble this season, currently among the five lightest payrolls in the league, and Lehtera’s deal expires after this season. However, next year the Flyers will need to re-sign or replace Wayne Simmonds, hand new deals to Ivan Provorov and Travis Konecny, and likely find a new starting goalie. The cap crunch will be much more real and the over-inflated $5MM contract of Andrew MacDonald will hurt. MacDonald’s six-year, $30MM contract was immediately panned by the public and it wasn’t long after that he was buried in the minors for cap relief and to keep him out of the lineup. MacDonald simply is not the player he was with the New York Islanders earlier in his career when he could eat major minutes, was stellar in man-to-man defense, and could block shots with the best. What he is being paid now is far beyond what he is actually worth. Some would say that Radko Gudas is worse, but that is an argument that suffers from recency bias. Combining the past two seasons, Gudas actually has the same amount of points as MacDonald in fewer games and less ice time, a better plus/minus rating, far more shots, and of course infinitely more hits. At $3.35MM for the next two years, Gudas is a far better deal.
Pittsburgh Penguins: Carl Hagelin – one year, $4MM remaining
The real answer is that GM Jim Rutherford would not like to trade any more players. He already ditched two of his worst contracts by sending Matt Hunwick and Conor Sheary to the Buffalo Sabres and he isn’t eager to make another salary dump. However, the reality is that Rutherford is going to find it hard to manipulate his roster this season with just over $1MM in cap space. As such, it is likely that another Penguin could be on the move. An outside observer could easily point to the Jack Johnson contract as one that stands little chance of maintaining its value over the term and the same argument could be made for Patric Hornqvist as well. However, Rutherford just signed those deals and wouldn’t move them even if he could. That leaves a short list of players who could be moved and the only one that sticks out as being overpriced is Carl Hagelin. Hagelin has played an important part of the Penguins’ reign over the past few years, but at $4MM he has not cracked 40 points in any of the three seasons and can go cold for weeks at a time. Rutherford won’t make a move unless it can benefit the team, but if he can get another scoring winger in exchange for a package that dumps Hagelin’s salary, he’ll do it.
San Jose Sharks: None
Mikkel Boedker, Joel Ward, and Paul Martin are all gone. Two top forwards, the two best defensemen, and the starting goalie are all locked up long-term at a reasonable rate. The Sharks have almost $4.5MM in cap space this season, giving them room to add. Congratulations to GM Doug Wilson and his staff. This roster is the epitome of cap compliance mixed with depth and talent. There is not one contract that the team would be interested in dumping.
St. Louis Blues: Alexander Steen – three years, $17.25MM remaining
The Blues currently have all but $285K of their cap space committed to 24 players. The team may send Chris Thorburn or Jordan Nolan down to the AHL, but will only gain marginal space. Something else has to give. If they could target any player to move to alleviate some pressure, it would be Alexander Steen. With just seven forwards and three defensemen (as of now) signed beyond next season and the majority of players in line for raises or free agent replacements, these cap woes aren’t going away anytime soon and an expensive long-term deal needs to be shipped out. Understandably, St. Louis is all in this season and wouldn’t be eager to ship out an important top-six piece. However, Ryan O’Reilly, Vladimir Tarasenko, Brayden Schenn, and Jaden Schwartz are the new young core up front now and paying 34-year-old Steen $5.75MM for three more years for declining production just doesn’t make sense. The Blues could potentially land some nice pieces from another contender for Steen as well. Admittedly, the Tyler Bozak contract looks even worse than Steen’s, but the Blues won’t be looking to trade a player they just signed.
Tampa Bay Lightning: Ryan Callahan – two years, $11.6MM remaining
The long-term implications of several other deals aside, the Lightning’s Stanley Cup window is wide open and their focus is on the here and now. The one player really impeding their ability to add freely to the roster is Ryan Callahan. While GM Steve Yzerman has excelled at extending most of his core below market value, the six-year, $34.8MM contract for Callahan was a mistake. Injuries limited Callahan to just 18 games in 2016-17, but last year he played in 67 games yet he only managed to score 18 points. Callahan’s days as an impact player are over, but he is still being paid like one at $5.8MM. While Tampa Bay can manage this season with close to $3MM in cap space, they would have more to work with without him. However, Callahan’s contract will really present a major road block next summer, when the Bolts need to re-sign Brayden Point, Yanni Gourde, Anton Stralman, and more. There is no doubt that Yzerman will look to unload Callahan’s contract before it comes to that point.
Toronto Maple Leafs: Nikita Zaitsev – six years, $27MM remaining
The Maple Leafs severely jumped the gun when they rewarded Nikita Zaitsev with a seven-year deal after his rookie season in 2016-17. Although Zaitsev was an import, making his NHL debut at 25 years old, his situation epitomizes why bridge deals exist. Toronto sought to lock him up long term and gave him nearly a maximum term at $4.5MM, just $500K less per year than top defender Morgan Rielly. In his encore performance last season, he showed that he is not worthy of the salary nor length of that contract, dropping from 36 points to 13 points for the year, turning the puck over at an alarming rate, and eventually becoming a healthy scratch. This team simply can’t afford the type of long-term mistake that they made with Zaitsev. While it’s nice that they have Reilly, John Tavares, and Nazem Kadri signed long-term, it’s Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander they need to worry about. The Maple Leafs will have to balance multiple expensive, long-term deals moving forward and would love for Zaitsev’s to not be one of them.
Vancouver Canucks: Loui Eriksson – four years, $24MM remaining
It seems unlikely that the recently-signed deals for Jay Beagle and Antoine Roussel will work out well, but they at least deserve some time. Loui Eriksson has had his time and has done nothing with it. While the Canucks aren’t under any cap pressure, they can’t enjoy seeing Eriksson’s $6MM cap hit – the highest on the team – on the books for four more years, especially when the bulk of his front-loaded salary has already been paid out. Eriksson was brought in with an expectation that he would be the ultimate fit with Daniel and Henrik Sedin. Instead, he has scored just 47 points combined over two seasons, less than his final season total with the Boston Bruins. The Sedins are now gone, the team is trying to get both younger and more physical and defensive-minded, and Eriksson is simply an expensive poor fit. There’s not much more to say about a player who desperately needs a change of scenery and a team that wants him gone.
Vegas Golden Knights: None
The Golden Knights are riding high after an outrageously successful first season in the NHL. It is highly unlikely that they see anything wrong with their current contracts, almost all of which were either hand-picked or signed by GM George McPhee. Give it some time and that could change. Reilly Smith is notorious for a significant drop in production in his second year with a team, but is signed for four more years at $5MM. Paul Stastny for three years at $6.5MM per seems like a solid deal, but he has always produced better surrounded by equal talent. Does Vegas have enough to justify his signing? A $2.775MM cap hit for Ryan Reaves doesn’t seem to make a whole lot of sense. Finally, there’s the three-year, $21MM extension for heroic goalie but also 33-year-old well-worn vet Marc-Andre Fleury, which could end poorly. And this isn’t even counting what could be a massive reactionary contract for one-year breakout star William Karlsson. The Knights don’t see any problems right now after finding immediate success, but if they slide significantly in year two, things could get ugly.
Washington Capitals: T.J. Oshie – seven years, $40.25MM remaining
No, it’s not Tom Wilson. The call of the question is which contract each team wants to trade, not which is objectively the worst. Wilson’s contract does seem excessive, but he is just 24 and could grow into that salary (doubtful but possible). Plus, the organization loves what he brings to the team. T.J. Oshie on the other hand is heading in the wrong direction. Oshie has done what he was brought in to do: help the Capitals win the Stanley Cup. It took a max eight-year term to keep Oshie off the market last summer and now Washington has their Cup but also has a 31-year-old with diminishing returns signed for seven more years. Oshie could absolutely still help the Capitals over the next few years, but it’s doubtful that he will be back in 60-point range in that time. He also will be nothing more than a cap space vacuum when he’s in his late thirties making $5.75MM. Oshie is a great player and one of the more likeable guys in the league, but this contract has little upside left. The Capitals would at the very least consider trading Oshie now, which can’t be said for most of their other core players.
Winnipeg Jets: Jacob Trouba – one year, $5.5MM remaining
The list ends with a tricky one. Is $5.5MM a fair value for Trouba? An arbitrator thinks so and the Jets would likely agree. However, Trouba’s contract has been a nightmare for the team. The young defenseman clearly does not want to be in Winnipeg and has set himself up for yet another arbitration clash next summer, after which he will bolt in free agency. The Jets have no long-term security with Trouba and that meddles with their future planning. With Blake Wheeler, Tyler Myers, and several others also in need of new contracts next summer, the Jets don’t need another Trouba arbitration award cutting into their cap space just so that he can walk after the season. The team will definitely look to get maximum value in a trade for Trouba over the next season.
Tampa Bay May Still Be Looking For More Defense
With the current high demands from Ottawa in a possible Erik Karlsson trade making it less and less likely that anything will happen, the Tampa Bay Lightning must choose whether they should be content with their defense or need to find another fit.
On paper, the team seems more solid than most as the team boasts Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh to go with promising Mikhail Sergachev and a host of solid blueline depth, including Anton Stralman, Dan Girardi, Braydon Coburn, Jake Dotchin and Slater Koekkoek. Yet when looking a step further, their elite defensemen are all left-handed. Hedman, McDonaugh and Sergachev are all left-handed, leaving Stralman, Dotchin and Girardi on the right, which isn’t nearly as solid. While Sergachev has proven he can play on the right side, that isn’t ideal for the Lightning, which was another reason why the team was intent on adding the right-handed Karlsson.
In a mailbag segment, The Athletic’s Joe Smith (subscription required) suggests the team needs to continue looking for a right-handed defenseman to even out both sides, suggesting the team should monitor the Jacob Trouba situation in Winnipeg since the stud defenseman refuses to sign a long-term deal with the Jets. Trouba, who received a one-year, $5.5MM deal from an arbitrator last week will have to go through the same process next year as he will be a restricted free agent again. If the two sides can’t reach long-term agreement then, he will be an unrestricted free agent in 2020-21 and might force his way out of Winnipeg.
Another option, Smith writes, would be prying Justin Faulk away from the Carolina Hurricanes. The right-shot defenseman has two years remaining on his contract at $4.83MM AAV, but with the acquisition of Dougie Hamilton and Calvin de Haan and the plethora of young defensive talent on the roster, including Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, Haydn Fleury and Jake Bean, the team is expected to move Faulk for more help in other areas.
One final option and perhaps the cheapest would be to trade for Vancouver Canucks’ Chris Tanev. The 28-year-old stay-at-home defender has been solid for the Canucks, but is being overpaid at $4.45MM for the next two seasons. The right-handed defenseman would be a reliable presence.
Regardless, the team needs to shake up their defense. Coburn and Girardi, who have played bigger roles in the past, are better off as third-pairing defenders, while Sergachev played the best hockey of his career during the playoffs, suggesting he’s likely going to move into the top-four. Dotchin and Koekkoek are also both likely going to fight for time in the top-six, so something needs to change.
Erik Karlsson Talks Between Sens, Lightning Never Got Close To A Deal Getting Done
- There is nothing imminent on the trade front for the Lightning when it comes to Senators defenseman Erik Karlsson. Joe Smith of The Athletic (subscription required) characterizes the discussions as not having got particularly close to a deal and adds that some feel that Ottawa isn’t in any rush to move him and are prepared to wait to get the price they want. Of course, further complicating things is that Tampa Bay may have to involve a third team to offload enough payroll to take on Karlsson’s $6.5MM contract as the Sens aren’t expected to be willing to take significant salary back in return.
Tampa Bay Still Has Several Other Extension Candidates
The offseason has been busy for the Tampa Bay Lightning, despite never completing a rumored Erik Karlsson deal. The team has already re-signed restricted free agent J.T. Miller to a long-term deal and negotiated huge extensions for Ryan McDonagh and Nikita Kucherov. The team has no arbitration cases pending and no restricted free agents threatening a holdout, but the work is far from over for GM Steve Yzerman and the rest of the front office.
Even outside of trade talks, Yzerman and company must be working through potential contract extensions for several other players on the roster. Brayden Point is the obvious candidate, after showing in his first two NHL seasons that he should be considered among the very best centers in the league despite his late draft status and diminutive size. Point is a workhorse in the defensive zone and should challenge for Selke trophies over the next few years as a shutdown option. He also added 32 goals and 66 points this season, and then followed that performance with a nearly point-per-game pace in the playoffs (16P in 17GP). In the final year of his entry-level contract, it will be interesting to see if the Lightning go the bridge deal route as they did with Kucherov, or immediately sign Point to a long-term deal.
On defense the team will have to make a decision at some point regarding Anton Stralman, who continues to be one of the league’s most underrated players and is heading into the final year of his current deal. At 31, Stralman likely still has a few productive years ahead of him as a mistake-free top-four defenseman and could fetch a multi-year contract on the open market. A right-handed option, plenty of teams would be thrilled to add a player capable of logging more than 20 minutes a night on a regular basis. Stralman might just be out of the question though for the Lightning after inking McDonagh to his $6.75MM cap hit, given that the team will have to extend Mikhail Sergachev and Andrei Vasilevskiy at some point down the road as well. While Dan Girardi and Braydon Coburn both come off the books along with Stralman, there might not be enough money to go around.
That lack of finances could also be thanks to the final big extension candidate, 26-year old Yanni Gourde. Gourde was one of the very best bargains in the league last season, scoring 64 points as a rookie in the first season of a two-year $2MM (total) contract. After several good seasons in the minor leagues the Lightning gave him a chance to play consistent minutes in the NHL and he rewarded them with an incredible year, leading the team with a whopping +34 rating. While Point is still young enough to consider a bridge deal that will keep him a restricted free agent in a few seasons, Gourde will be an unrestricted free agent next summer without an extension. The undrafted winger would put himself among the very best options available with another season like 2017-18, and will force the Lightning into an incredibly tough decision. The team has been doing a wonderful job of managing the cap so far, but a Gourde contract would be 100% UFA seasons and likely fairly expensive even before this year takes place. Afterwards, he might just be out of their price range.
These players are all extension candidates because of their excellent play for Tampa Bay, and they make the Lightning a very interesting team to watch this season. Even if the team is in a solid playoff position and looking like the Stanley Cup contender many believe them to be, several players on their roster may be available in trade. Whether that is players like Gourde and Stralman who are scheduled for unrestricted free agency or others like Alex Killorn and Tyler Johnson who could be flipped to free up space, there is so much talent on Tampa Bay that someone might need to go.
One last option for the team to free up some space would be to trade Ryan Callahan and his $5.8MM cap hit, which was rumored to be discussed when the Karlsson talks were heating up. Callahan underwent another shoulder surgery at the end of May, and is nowhere near the player he once was. Though his leadership and experience is valued in the Tampa Bay locker room, his cap hit might force them to move on from another more talented player. If Yzerman is known for anything as a GM it’s avoiding giving up excess value, meaning if Callahan—who it should be noted now only has a 15-team no-trade clause—is the only way out of this issue he won’t wait to pull the trigger. Regardless of what happens, the Lightning find themselves just starting a very busy season and won’t be sitting on their hands for very long.
Atlantic Notes: Larkin, Lightning, Moore
The Detroit Red Wings have two options in regards to signing restricted free agent Dylan Larkin this summer. The team could go short-term or long-term. With a solid, but hardly spectacular season, the Red Wings might want to wait and see how the 21-year-old develops over the next year or two and hand out short contracts to see if he’s worth the money. That makes sense considering the team is capped out with so many long-term deals having been handed out to veterans over the past few years.
However, NBC Sports’ James O’Brien writes that the team needs to look at the long-term option instead and lock up Larkin as quick as possible as he compares Larkin’s situation to that of Leon Draisaitl of the Edmonton Oilers, who signed an eight-year, $68MM deal a year ago, which is starting to look like a bargain after the many signings since then.
Larkin, who has shown that he’s one of the few answers in Detroit still hasn’t broken out with the Red Wings. While his rookie campaign showed plenty of promise with 23 goals, he’s failed to duplicate that number since. However, while he did just tally 16 goals a season ago, his 47 assists was a career-high along with his 63 points, suggesting he might be due for a breakout season. Signing Larkin to a long-term deal now while his value isn’t through the roof might be better than waiting another two years when they will be forced to shell out top dollar in the future with the cap constantly increasing.
- While it’s already been reported that the eight-year, $76MM extension that Nikita Kucherov signed will not take the Tampa Bay Lightning out of a potential Erik Karlsson trade, the team will have to make some moves if it does pull the trigger on a trade as the team has less than $3MM in cap space for this coming year. Brandon Schlager of the Sporting News writes that the most obvious candidates that would have to be moved would be forwards Ryan Callahan ($5.8MM AAV for two more years), Tyler Johnson ($5MM for six more years), Alex Killorn ($4.45MM for five more years) and defenseman Braydon Coburn ($3.7MM for one year).
- Kevin Paul Dupont of the Boston Globe attempts to break down what the Boston Bruins defense will look like next season as well as what the team should expect out of their top free agent target, John Moore. The scribe writes that general manager Don Sweeney hasn’t struck gold yet with his long-term free agent deals, pointing to the contracts handed out to Matt Beleskey and David Backes. Beleskey was an outright failure, while Backes has been average, at best. Moore is just 27 years old and will be playing already for his fifth team, which isn’t a good sign. What the team’s plans are for his usage is also unknown as if the team intends to put him on the team’s second-line defensive pairings, then the team would force either Torey Krug or Brandon Carlo to the third-line pairing, which doesn’t make sense either unless the team intends to move Krug. However, there is still no proof that Moore is good enough to be a top-four player.
Coaching Notes: Cronin, Rallo, Lalonde
Greg Cronin will be the new head coach of the Colorado Eagles as they move from the ECHL to the AHL for the 2018-19 season. Cronin had served with the New York Islanders for the past four seasons, first as an assistant coach and then as an associate with Doug Weight last season. With Barry Trotz coming in and bringing in a new group, Cronin will head to the AHL where the Eagles are trying to follow up incredible ECHL success with a bang in their first year of AHL contention.
Under Aaron Schneekloth—who will remain with the team as an assistant coach—the Eagles have won two consecutive Kelly Cups in the ECHL. They’ll be trying for the Calder this year, but Schneekloth, assistant Ryan Tobler and goaltending coach Ryan Bach will still be there for the journey under Cronin’s leadership. It is experienced leadership, as Cronin has many years of experience in the NHL as well as time spent as a head coach in both the AHL and NCAA.
- Greg Rallo won’t have to wait long for his next career to begin, as the 36-year old has been named an assistant coach with the Milwaukee Admirals. Rallo only finished his playing career recently, suiting up for 29 games with the Texas Stars in the 2017-18 season. He’ll join head coach Karl Taylor—who was an assistant coach with Texas while Rallo played there—as part of a new staff with the Nashville Predators’ AHL affiliate.
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have nabbed a coach from the Minnesota Wild organization, hiring Derek Lalonde as an NHL assistant coach for next season. Lalonde had been the head coach of the Iowa Wild in the AHL for the last two years, and is on a fast track to being an NHL head coach one day. He’s flown quickly through head coaching roles in the USHL, ECHL and AHL with winning records at all stops, and will now join a staff in Tampa Bay that is expected to compete for the Stanley Cup. Lalonde was hired to coach the Green Bay Gamblers just a year after now-Lightning head coach Jon Cooper left that organization following a championship season, only to bring the USHL team another championship in 2012.
Tampa Bay Lightning Re-Sign Adam Erne
It’s not quite the deal that Nikita Kucherov received yesterday, but another Tampa Bay Lightning forward has re-signed with the team. Adam Erne has agreed to a one-year, one-way contract worth $800K. Erne was the team’s last remaining restricted free agent this summer.
The 23-year old Erne hasn’t quite been able to lock down a full-time role with the Lightning to this point in his short career, but could certainly challenge for ice time this season. Tampa Bay always seems to have more cap room when they want to make a big move, and it’s because of inexpensive players like Erne making a real impact at the NHL level. If he can continue to play a heavy game at the bottom of the lineup he’ll be a valuable contributor even without adding a ton of offense. That offense though could still come, as Erne has been a solid—if unspectacular—producer at the minor league level, scoring 26 points in 41 games last season for the Syracuse Crunch. He added just four points during 23 NHL contests.
If he’s not given an opportunity over the next two seasons, Erne would actually qualify for Group VI unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2020. He needs 31 NHL contests before then to become ineligible, or sign a longer-term contract next summer. For now, he’ll play out his year and try to prove that he deserves another deal as a restricted free agent in a year’s time.
Stars May Once Again Be Frontrunner For Erik Karlsson; Rangers Open To Acquiring Ryan Callahan
- With talks that discussions between the Senators and Lightning regarding defenseman Erik Karlsson have cooled off, Larry Brooks of the New York Post reports that Dallas has now re-emerged as the likeliest destination for the blueliner. The Stars had shown interest early on but weren’t inclined to include top prospect Miro Heiskanen in a trade which is what had seemingly put them out of the running early on.
- From the same report, Brooks adds that the Rangers still have some interest in bringing back winger Ryan Callahan if Tampa Bay decides that they still need to free up some cap space for this season and next. New York will likely be seeking some form of draft pick compensation from the Lightning to relieve them of their $5.8MM per season obligation over the next two years.