Trade Rumors: Predators, Avalanche, Henrique, Ferland
The Nashville Predators made a splash yesterday when they acquired both Brian Boyle and Cody McLeod to strengthen their bottom-six. However, many continue to speculate that the Preds are not done and in fact remain one of the top players for the market’s most valued rentals forwards. That may not be so, though. NHL.com’s Dan Rosen cites an interview with GM David Poile on 104.5 The Zone in Nashville today in which he spoke about the additions of Boyle and McLeod, the return from injury for center Kyle Turris, and his hope of improvement from young winger Kevin Fiala. “If those guys can do it, we’re probably not making any more moves,” Poile stated. It seems that the veteran executive is willing to wait on pulling the trigger on another trade before he can see if the team improves internally. Poile has never been afraid to make a move at the deadline, but is also a careful dealer. “It’s a little bit of an arms race these couple weeks before the trade deadline and I don’t want to say I would react to what another team does. I mean, first and foremost, you’ve got to take care of your own team,” Poile continued, but did add that “nothing is out of the realm of possibilities… I’m making calls. I’m receiving calls. I’m just looking for an opportunity to improve our team. If that comes our way between now and Feb. 25, I’m all in.”
- One team that will play it safe at the deadline, and understandably so, are the Colorado Avalanche. The Avs have lost four games straight and eight of their last ten and have fallen out of a playoff spot, all the way to 10th-place in the Western Conference, behind both the Vancouver Canucks and St. Louis Blues for the final wild card slot. Colorado still has the talent to right the ship and reach the postseason, but their total lack of secondary scoring and their inconsistent goaltending have put them in a tough spot. GM Joe Sakic is not about to mortgage the future at the trade deadline when his team may has such serious needs and may not even make the playoffs. Sakic told The Denver Post’s Mike Chambers that he believes the team can get back into playoff position and he may look at some minor trades to help them along, but Colorado’s top trade capital is off the table. This includes both of the team’s first-round pick in 2019, their own and the Ottawa Senators’, the latter of which has strong odds of being the No. 1 overall pick. Also included in the untouchables are top defensive prospects Cale Makar and Conor Timmins and top forward prospects Shane Bowers and Martin Kaut. As such, any sellers dealing with Sakic and company should not expect an overwhelming offer for their rental players and, as a result, Avs fans should not expect fireworks at the deadline.
- The Anaheim Ducks are desperate for a shake-up. The team has just two wins in their last 19 games, including a current five-game losing streak, and have plummeted to 14th in the Western Conference. The team also has more cap space committed to their roster for next season than any other team in the NHL and are equally desperate for help alleviating that cap crunch. The result is that Ducks players not previously thought to be available are popping up on the rumor mill. It seems almost anyone on the Anaheim roster could be had in the right deal, but Adam Henrique is currently the most talked-about name. TSN’s Frank Seravalli recently moved Henrique up to No. 15 on the Trade Bait List; he had previously been off the board completely. Henrique signed a five-year extension with the Ducks back in July and will carry a $5.825MM cap hit beginning next season. Although Henrique is second in scoring for Anaheim, his 27 points through 54 games is significantly behind his production rate from last season after coming over from the New Jersey, as well as his scoring pace in most seasons with the Devils. With the Ducks in search of both re-shaped roster and a lesser payroll, the underacheiving Henrique could be on his way out of Anaheim before ever playing a full season with the team.
- TSN’s Trade Bait List also reflects another intriguing change on the trade market. Carolina Hurricanes winger Micheal Ferland, once though to be as good as gone, has fallen down the board to No. 9 overall. While still a high ranking, Seravalli notes that trade talks surrounding Ferland have cooled as the ‘Canes may prefer to hold on to him. Colleague Darren Dreger recently reported the same thing, believing Carolina could use Ferland as their “own rental”. The Hurricanes are currently three points behind the Columbus Blue Jackets in pursuit of the final Eastern Conference wild card spot, and have played one more game than Columbus and the Buffalo Sabres. However, when your team has holds a league-worst nine-year playoff drought, you jump on any chance you have to get back to the postseason. Ferland is now looking increasingly likely to stay in Carolina as the team tries to make the most of their stretch run and secure a playoff berth, but their play leading up to the deadline will be the deciding factor when it comes to Ferland’s future this season.
Deadline Primer: Arizona Coyotes
With the trade deadline fast approaching, we will be taking a closer look at the situation for each team over the coming weeks. Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs? As we continue to examine the Pacific Division, here is a look at the Arizona Coyotes.
Team A is in a four-way tie for eleventh place is their conference. Team B has a points percentage only marginally less than the final wild card team in their conference. Most would say that Team A should be a seller at the deadline, while Team B should be a buyer. Well, Team A is the Arizona Coyotes and Team B is also the Arizona Coyotes.
At 51 points through 53 games, Arizona is tied with the Edmonton Oilers, Anaheim Ducks, and Chicago Blackhawks in the Western Conference wild card race, though technically they lead the group. One game in hand separates them from the Ducks and Hawks, while a single regulation/overtime win currently gives them an edge over the Oilers. At the same time, the Coyotes’ .481 points percentage only narrowly trails the 8th-place Vancouver Canucks and 10th-place Colorado Avalanche, who are both .500 teams. The truth of the matter is that six points separate all eight teams in pursuit of the second wild card berth in the West and Arizona is right in the middle of a race that gets more complicated with each day.
So which way do GM John Chayka and the Coyotes go? The St. Louis Blues currently look like the team to beat for the final postseason spot, but the Avalanche have been in the playoff picture all year and the Blackhawks are winners of five straight. Can Arizona really compete with those teams? Despite the proximity of the teams in the Western Conference playoff race, the ‘Yotes still lack great odds of making the playoffs and, even if they did sneak in, would be severe underdogs without much of a chance in the first round. Between a rash of injuries and inconsistent scoring, this just doesn’t seem like the year for Arizona’s triumphant return to the postseason. There are many good pieces in place, both veterans and young contributors, but the Coyotes would be better served simply entertaining offers for their impending free agents and expendable parts and keeping their sights set on next season.
Record
23-25-5, fifth in the Pacific Division
Deadline Status
Moderate Seller
Deadline Cap Space
$30.54MM in full-season cap hit, 1/3 used salary cap retention slots, 50/50 contracts per CapFriendly
Upcoming Draft Picks
2019: ARI 1st, ARI 2nd, ARI 3rd, CHI 3rd, ARI 4th, CLB 6th, PIT 6th
2020: ARI 1st, ARI 2nd, ARI 3rd, ARI 4th, ARI 5th, ARI 6th, ARI 7th
Trade Chips
Derek Stepan? Alex Goligoski? Niklas Hjalmarsson? These names just aren’t out there on the rumor mill, as the Coyotes seem happy with their veterans and aren’t willing to move them while term remains on their contracts. There is a lot to like about the core that Chayka and company have put together, but it simply hasn’t had the opportunity to shine this season due to injury issues with the likes of Nick Schmaltz, Michael Grabner, Jakob Chychrun, Christian Dvorak, Antti Raanta, and more. Looking ahead to next year, the Coyotes on paper have a top-notch goalie tandem, a deep and diverse defense, and a mix of skill and experience on offense that could help to solve this season’s scoring issues. The team seems unlikely to want to interfere with the potential they see in next season’s squad, which will eliminate many of the names that buyers are most interested in.
However, there are more than a few impending UFA’s or spare parts that the Coyotes should be willing to move. At the top of that list is forward Richard Panik. Panik, 27, is on pace to match his 35 points from last season when he came over to the Coyotes from the Chicago Blackhawks at mid-season. Yet, he has been less effective and less efficient at both ends this season despite more play time than his second-half stint last year. A fit in Arizona that once looked ideal for Panik is now unlikely to be a long-term home and the Coyotes should be more than willing to move the upcoming free agent. Panik will be an affordable, versatile depth addition for a contender and should draw ample attention. The only other Coyotes forwards approaching unrestricted free agency are Jordan Weal – who has disappointed since coming over from the Philadelphia Flyers – and Mario Kempe, neither of whom are likely to attract much interest. There are others up front who Arizona will listen on, though. Nick Cousins, an RFA this summer, has failed to make the most of opportunities throughout the lineup this season and should be a player that the Coyotes are open to move on from at the right price. Josh Archibald, another RFA, is already 26 and may not be a player that Arizona sees as a long-term piece. He would be another affordable depth addition for a playoff-bound team.
On the back end, Jordan Oesterle has played admirably for the Coyotes this season, but the 26-year-old UFA-to-be is likely nothing more than an extra man if he stays in Arizona moving forward. He would probably prefer to begin that role early this season for a contender than stay in the desert. Oesterle has proven this season that he can step in and be an effective defender and he seems very likely to move if any playoff team comes calling. The more difficult decision for the Coyotes is in regards to Kevin Connauton. At full strength, Arizona does not need Connauton as a top-four defenseman next season and, like Oesterle, he may even become the seventh defender on that blue line. Yet, he is signed through the end of next year at a great price, even as a depth option. Even though his offense has fallen off this season after an impressive 2017-18 campaign, Connauton and his team-friendly $1.375MM cap hit could be appealing to any number of teams if the Coyotes are willing to give him up. AHLers Dakota Mermis, Robbie Russo, and Dysin Mayo are all likely up for grabs as well if any team wants to really deepen their options on the blue line.
Five Players To Watch For: F Richard Panik, D Jordan Oesterle, F Nick Cousins, D Kevin Connauton, D Robbie Russo
Team Needs
1) NHL-Ready Forward Prospects: It’s hard to truly gauge what the Coyotes needs are moving forward since their performance this season is so skewed by injuries and an ever-changing lineup. Their 28th-ranked offense should improve next season with full seasons from Schmaltz, Dvorak, and Grabner and the chemistry impact that consistent lines will have. Nevertheless, 2.60 goals per game is a bad mark and adding some more young scoring options to the mix certainly won’t hurt. The Coyotes aren’t exactly selling elite talent at this deadline, but if they can land some pro-ready forwards in lieu of draft picks, that would be ideal. Barrett Hayton cannot be the only impact forward in the Arizona pipeline, but there aren’t any other apparent options who could step in next season. Center depth is a clear need, but any capable, young forward will help.
2) Draft Picks: The Coyotes are not the same rebuilding team they were just a couple of years ago, but that doesn’t make building for the future any less important. Chayka and company seem content to move forward with their current core, but need to establish the next wave behind them. Hayton is leader of that prospect core, but his supporting cast right now is unspectacular. If pro-ready prospects aren’t being offered up by sellers, adding draft picks this season can help add to the pipeline. It is a deep draft and even third- and fourth-rounders could yield impact players in June.
Dallas Stars Are Expected To Sign Free Agent Tye Felhaber
The Dallas Stars are expected to land free-agent prospect Tye Felhaber, according to The Athletic’s Sean Shapiro (subscription required), who reports that the two sides have finalized a deal that will be announced soon.
Felhaber, considered a late bloomer, has been playing as a 20-year-old with the Ottawa 67’s in the OHL and has been lighting it up there this year as he already has potted 51 goals in 50 games and is on pace to break the 70-goal mark, which hasn’t been done since John Tavares scored 72 goals in the 2006-07 season. Shapiro writes that Felhaber has said recently that he has received interest from 20 NHL teams this season.
The 6-foot, 183-pound forward scored 31 goals with Ottawa in the OHL last season and received a four-game tryout with the Laval Rocket of the AHL, but failed to register a point. Felhaber also attended training camp with the Toronto Maple Leafs, but was cut an early casualty. One reason for his recent success is his offseason dedication to his physical part or his game, as he spent the offseason working with Philadelphia Flyers captain Claude Giroux.
Dallas is well known for signing undrafted players as two of their top prospects include Joel L’Esperance and Ben Gleason, while Gavin Bayreuther has already appeared in 19 NHL games this season. Unless Ottawa goes on a deep playoff run in the OHL, Felhaber is expected to join the Texas Stars of the AHL this spring.
Deadline Primer: Calgary Flames
With the trade deadline fast approaching, we will be taking a closer look at the situation for each team over the coming weeks. Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs? As we begin to examine the Pacific Division, here is a look at the Calgary Flames.
The Calgary Flames are the kings of the Western Conference so far. With 71 points in 51 games, the Flames hold a commanding six-point lead with a game in hand over the San Jose Sharks in the division and are three points up on the Winnipeg Jets overall. In fact, the Flames trail only the Tampa Bay Lightning in the NHL standings right now. The team has been rolling on all cylinders this season, finding success on both offense – No. 2 in goals per game – and defense – No. 7 in goals against per game. However, Calgary is not without fault and will be looking to add in several areas at the deadline.
However, GM Brad Treliving and company must be methodical in their approach. The Flames have just over $7MM in cap space to work with and need to be sure of their priorities when it comes to the market. The team also needs to avoid trading one of their most valuable trade assets, this year’s first-round pick. With only five selections scheduled for this June, losing their first-rounder could see Calgary make their draft debut in the late third round. As such, the Flames need to do what they can to capitalize on the strong regular season and improve before the postseason, but will be forced to be more strategic than a typical all-out buyer.
Record
33-13-5, first in the Pacific Division
Deadline Status
Buyer
Deadline Cap Space
$7.09MM in full-season cap hit, 0/3 used salary cap retention slots, 45/50 contracts per CapFriendly
Upcoming Draft Picks
2019: CGY 1st, CGY 3rd, NYI 4th, CGY 5th, CAR 7th
2020: CGY 1st, CGY 2nd, CGY 3rd, CGY 4th, CGY 5th, CGY 6th, CGY 7th
Trade Chips
If the Flames indeed take this year’s first-round pick off the table, it will have repercussions in their dealings with sellers. Depending on the team and target, some may be happy with next year’s first-rounder or, in a buyer’s market, a later pick. Others could look for a pro-ready piece to substitute the immediate boost of a first-round talent in the system. If that’s the case, Calgary has to be prepared to listen to offers including Sam Bennett. Bennett, the 2014 fourth overall pick, is struggling through another disappointing season. Now in his fourth year with the Flames, Bennett has yet to crack 20 goals or 40 points in a single season and looks likely to fall short yet again. It is far from the output that Calgary expected, but they have stuck with the frustrating forward thus far. Bennett’s ability is apparent and he’s shown flashes of brilliance from time to time, but he has been unable to put together a complete game. Even as the 22-year-old has tried to embrace a more physical, high-energy style over the past season plus, he has again missed his mark and has become a penalty liability far too frequently, especially for a team with a poor penalty kill. Bennett may reach his potential one day, but it seems unlikely to be with Calgary. In a season where the Flames have a legitimate chance to win the Stanley Cup, they need to finally give up on Bennett if that’s the price of a much-needed addition. Another castoff who has yet to meet expectations is Curtis Lazar, who could still have some intrigue for sellers.
One of the Flames’ current young defenseman could also be a trade deadline target. With five capable veterans on the back end signed through at least next season and three promising young defenders itching for more NHL responsibility, someone is going to be the odd man out next year. Juuso Valimaki, the team’s top defensive prospect, seems like a safe bet to stay put. However, the current bottom pair of Rasmus Andersson and Oliver Kylington may not stay together much longer. Both have more than proven themselves as capable pros this season, but if the Flames want to land a big fish at the deadline, they may have to give up one or the other. Losing Kylington would hurt slightly less than Andersson.
Among other prospects, first-year pro forwards Matthew Phillips and Glenn Gawdin are sure to draw interest, but the Flames may be hesitant to move either. However, with Dillon Dube out of the question, the pair could be next up among Calgary’s top minor league pieces. The Flames could try to capitalize on the breakout season of USHL star Martin Pospisil to sell high on the recent fourth-rounder.
Finally, with Jon Gillies officially losing out to David Rittich in the battle of young goaltenders in Calgary, the Flames would likely be open to moving the struggling 25-year-old. Especially if they are in pursuit of a replacement goalie of their own, the seller may like the idea of taking a waiver on another young goalie and Gillies fits the bill. So too may Tyler Parsons.
Five Players To Watch For: F Sam Bennett, F Curtis Lazar, D Oliver Kylington, F Martin Pospisil, G Jon Gillies
Team Needs
1) Starting Goaltender: Most contenders don’t get to that point if they have a need at starting goaltender. This year’s Flames are a rare exception. Incumbent starter Mike Smith has struggled all year long and has a sub-.900 save percentage and a goals against average up over 3.00 in 25 appearances. Young David Rittich has take over as the go-to option and has performed admirably in 30 appearances, but has faded since his hot start to the season. Most likely, Calgary’s Cup hopes live and die by what they do in net. Doing nothing at all will likely cost them their chance barring a heroic return to form from Smith. Adding a third goalie to at least compete for starts will let them continue their current trajectory. Carolina Hurricanes’ keepers Petr Mrazek or Curtis McElhinney could fall into this group, as could Cam Talbot from the rival Edmonton Oilers or old friend Brian Elliott, if healthy. If the Flames instead opt to upgrade the position with one of the three main goalies on the market – Sergei Bobrovksy, Jimmy Howard, and Semyon Varlamov – one would have to think that their title chances would improve significantly. The trick will be adding one of these three at a reasonable price while also keeping enough cap space open to add in other areas. Moving Smith in another deal could be an option.
2) Top-Nine Winger: Michael Frolik, Sam Bennett, James Neal, and Austin Czarnik simply haven’t panned out as expected this season. As dominant as the Flames’ top line and two-thirds of their second line has been, they have needed help on the wing in the middle six for much of the year. If they can add a forward that can also help out their 21st-ranked penalty kill, that would be even better. If they can add two such capable two-way wingers? That would be ideal. Again, the Flames lack of cap space and bigger need in net make this a likely result, but Calgary has a serious need for depth on the wing and it could be exposed in the postseason if not addressed. Some of the more cap-friendly outside options are likely to be targets, such as Jakob Silfverberg, Richard Panik, Ryan Dzingel, or Patrick Maroon. However, the possibility of a return to Calgary for Micheal Ferland remains one of the most intriguing possibilities at the deadline. Ferland seemingly would be a great fix for what ails the Flames.
3) Veteran Depth Defenseman: Even though depth on defense has been identified as a strength for the Flames moving forward, there are some concerns at present. Michael Stone is currently sidelined with a blood clot issue and there is no definitive timeline for his return. Meanwhile, rookies Rasmus Andersson, Oliver Kylington, and Juuso Valimaki have played a little over 100 career NHL games combined and the other young options in the AHL aren’t instilling any confidence. Calgary has an impressive top four that they will no doubt lean on in the playoffs, but just one injury could leave Dalton Prout as the team’s top replacement option and that is a problem. The Flames need to add another experienced veteran to the blue line and, even if the right-handed Stone returns to health, could use an extra body on the left side preferably. Treliving would have to get creative, but Detroit’s Niklas Kronwall would be a great fit. More affordable options include Jordie Benn and Brandon Davidson among others.
Jim Benning Discusses The Future Of Vancouver’s Blue Line
Vancouver Canucks GM Jim Benning was an open book during an interview on TSN 1040 radio in Vancouver today, going into great detail on the current state of his team and their outlook moving forward. Per Benning, the Canucks are currently negotiating with their “best defender”, Alex Edler, but have high hopes for their top prospects and AHL standouts on the blue line. Yet, he also stated that an offensive defenseman was one of the team’s biggest needs and said that he will explore “hockey trades” as the trade deadline approaches.
As for Edler, the 32-year-old has been very forthcoming about his desire to remain in Vancouver. An impending free agent, Edler has been a solid two-way contributor over his entire 13-year NHL career and would surely have suitors on the open market, but enjoys playing for the Canucks and wishes to stick with the promising young team. For his part, Benning said that Edler is an invaluable member of the team and they are hopeful that a new contract can be worked out. Benning stated that the team will not use the February 25th deadline as a deadline of their own for extending Edler and will continue negotiating with he and agent Mark Stowe for as long as possible. Answering a direct question, Benning added that he does not see the possibility of trading away and then re-signing Edler as feasible. With that said, Benning never ruled out trading Edler entirely, but did vouch for the veteran defenseman several times. “He’s our best defenseman, he’s a leader in our room, he’s a mentor… He’s a guy that sets the culture for our young players”, Benning stated, adding “if we can get something figured out with him, I’d like to try to (re-sign him)”. With mutual interest on both sides, the only thing stopping a new deal appears to be the price – Edler currently comes in at $5MM AAV – and term for the aging blue liner.
Should Edler walk, Benning still seems confident in the team’s defensive corps moving forward. In regards to top prospect Quinn Hughes, Benning stopped short of confirming that he would leave the University of Michigan after the collegiate season, but did say that they hoped to sign him and get him some pro experience down the stretch before his probable rookie season next year. Benning knows that the jump from the NCAA to the NHL is “a big step”, but believes in Hughes’ ability and is excited to see what he can do at the next level. In response to a question, Benning stated that the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft is not a concern when determining when to bring Hughes in, as he feels the team should not have coverage problems among their defenseman. Getting last year’s No. 7 overall pick into the lineup as soon as possible appears to be a priority for the Canucks.
Elsewhere in the organization, Benning also spoke highly of currently-injured recent top pick Olli Juolevi, who he still expects to be an impact pro despite recent struggles. He also spoke highly of AHLers Ashton Sautner, Jalen Chatfield, and Guillaume Brisebois and mentioned that the trio – along with forward Zack MacEwen – are candidates to receive a call-up during the stretch run. However, Benning spoke with the most excitement about 2018 second-rounder Jett Woo, who is currently second in the WHL in goals among defenseman. Benning believes that Woo, and the rest of these prospects, have the Canucks primed for a bright future on the back end.
Yet, Benning also stated that an offensive defenseman remains one of the team’s top needs, even with Hughes, Juolevi, and Woo on the horizon. However, don’t expect him to trade any of the trio away to meet that need. Benning stated that he is not willing to trade any of this year’s picks – after all, the draft will be held in Vancouver – nor any of his “blue chip prospects” this season. He is willing to make “hockey trades” to meet his needs on defense, as well as at forward, if the right deal presents itself. Forward Nikolay Goldobin, who has been rumored to be on the outs in Vancouver, was described as being in a “make or break” period and could be a prime candidate to be traded away. Benning expressed that anyone on the NHL or AHL roster could technically be traded if the right swap presented itself, although his young core is likely off the table. Benning described an active trade market it currently, so don’t be surprised to see the Canucks swing a deal this month.
With that said, Benning said that his preference is to draft and develop rather than use trades and free agency to meet his needs. Just as he spoke highly of his current stock of prospects, Benning is looking forward to a “deep” draft class this year. He believes that the top six or seven picks this season could be NHL contributors right away and the next ten or so picks, currently the range in which Vancouver would be expected to pick, will be “very good” prospects. Benning displayed hope and optimism about his team in this interview, but his trust in the pipeline and his belief in this draft class makes it seem like the Canucks could be more seller, with an eye on future assets, than buyer at the deadline.
“No Rush” In Edmonton Oilers’ GM Search
Even with the trade deadline looming, CEO Bob Nicholson and the Edmonton Oilers are not expected to move quickly in the search for their new general manager. During TSN’s “Insider Trading” segment, Darren Dreger states that there is “no rush” to fill the position and that the team will take their time in vetting all options.
Dreger goes on to say that “the Oilers know that they need to get this one right”, which is a major understatement. Recently-fired GM Peter Chiarelli left the team in a tough salary cap condition and without enough talent on the roster following several poor trade and signing decisions. His predecessors, Craig MacTavish and Steve Tambellini, were at the helm for a near decade-long postseason drought. So long as Connor McDavid is an Oiler, Edmonton will have a chance to make the playoffs year in and year out, but they haven’t helped to improve those odds of late and need to put an end to these wasted years of McDavid’s career. Finally solving the GM problem is the most important step toward pointing this team in the right direction.
In the meantime, interim GM Keith Gretzky is more than capable of handling day-to-day operations for some time. Although there continues to be speculation that the Oilers could be buyers leading up to the deadline, they trail five other teams for the final Western Conference wild card spot and could be a short string of losses away from falling it out of the race completely. Gretzky, whose background is in amateur scouting, would be far more adept at selling off impending free agents for picks and prospects rather than trying to add. He would also be very qualified to handle the college and junior free agent markets later this spring. And, if it reaches that point, Gretzky has run drafts for both the Arizona Coyotes and Boston Bruins in the past and would be a fine option for the Oilers on draft day if his full-time replacement has yet to be found. Gretzky was a wise choice by Nicholson and company as interim GM and should be a solid stopgap for the team as they take their time to make a vital decision for the franchise.
Deadline Primer: St. Louis Blues
With the trade deadline fast approaching, we will be taking a closer look at the situation for each team over the coming weeks. Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs? As we continue with the Central Division, here is a look at the St. Louis Blues.
Alex Pietrangelo? Vladimir Tarasenko? Colton Parayko? Sorry, but they aren’t going anywhere. The St. Louis Blues have quietly climbed within three points of a playoff spot and the early-season panic is over. Granted, the team is still in the middle of a cluster of teams fighting for just a few postseason berths, but the Blues have games in hand on the whole bunch and have been playing some of their best hockey lately. St. Louis is now a legitimate threat to slip into the playoffs and, once there, could do some damage. In fact, the potential on paper of this team is yet another reason why a fire sale is unlikely. There is no excuse for their first half failures, but many, including their own GM Doug Armstrong, have expressed optimism about what this core can do next season. They may have considered tearing it all down at one point, but that’s no longer a realistic possibility.
With that said, the Blues have fallen short of expectations all year long and no one would be surprised if they do in fact miss the playoffs this year. As such, they need to hedge their bets and continue to take offers as a seller. The team has a handful of impending unrestricted free agents they can trade, as well as others that they may entertain moving. The bulk of the St. Louis lineup isn’t going anywhere and will continue their playoff push, but Armstrong and company are likely to move out some extraneous pieces and play both sides of the market as the trade deadline approaches.
Record
22-22-5, sixth in the Central Division
Deadline Status
Moderate Seller
Deadline Cap Space
$7.2MM of full-season cap hit, 0/3 used salary cap retention slots, 46/50 contracts per CapFriendly
Upcoming Draft Picks
2019: STL 2nd, STL 3rd, STL 5th, STL 6th, STL 7th
2020: STL 1st*, STL 2nd, STL 3rd, STL 4th, STL 5th, STL 7th
* – Blues owe their 2019 first-round pick to the Buffalo Sabres as part of the Ryan O’Reilly trade, but have option to keep that pick if it is top-ten and send 2020 first-round pick instead
Trade Chips
Brayden Schenn is a name that just won’t go away. Even as the Blues’ play has improved of late, Schenn’s name continues to bounce around the rumor mill. The 27-year-old center broke out for 70 points last season, but is back to his regular 50-point pace, if that, this year and has been an underwhelming presence this season for an underachieving team. Logic would dictate that if the Blues want to keep their core intact for another try next season, they’ll refrain from moving Schenn. However, if the market interest forces his hand, Armstrong will move the talented forward, who has one year remaining on his contract, for the right price.
The same goes for winger Jaden Schwartz. Once the epitome of consistency and clutch in the Blues’ lineup, Schwartz, 27, has been streaky and largely ineffective on offense this season. His 21 points thus far is one of the biggest disappointments of St. Louis’ season. Schwartz has quietly continued to be a solid two-way force for the Blues though, even if it doesn’t show up on the score sheet. Schwartz has shown immense talent previously and his trade value is at an all-time low. Maybe he does just need a change of scenery, but Armstrong is unlikely to sell low on the two-way forward this season.
Not every trade decision will be as difficult as Schenn and Schwartz. For example, veteran forward Patrick Maroon has been an utter failure this year for St. Louis and is all but gone before the deadline. Earlier this month, it was rumored that Maroon was likely to be dealt when his full no-trade clause expired at the end of January. In the nine games since the report, Maroon has one lone goal. Hometown product or not, the Blues are likely to move Maroon – who has proven before to be a deadline commodity – for the best offer. Veteran grinders Jordan Nolan and, to a lesser extent, Chris Thorburn could also have value on the market and their absences would mean little to the Blues.
Defensemen Jay Bouwmeester and Carl Gunnarsson have not struggled like Maroon, but are also likely goners as impending UFA’s. Bouwmeester, 35, is a respected veteran around the league but has undoubtedly slowed down over the past couple of seasons. He’s currently fourth among St. Louis defenders in time on ice and has the worst plus/minus of the group. Bouwmeester isn’t going to be extended by the Blues, but he’s also still a serviceable and experienced blue liner who could help a true contender. He’s worth more elsewhere than he is for this fringe St. Louis team. The same goes for depth defender Gunnarsson, who has actually been a quite effective possession defenseman in limited opportunity this year, but has a higher value as an added option to a contender than to a team that may not make the playoffs. Jakub Jerabek and Chris Butler are also impending UFA defensemen who may have some slight value on the market. Don’t be surprised if 25-year-old Jordan Schmaltz has his name thrown around too; the Blues have made no effort to get him NHL minutes and he could use a new opportunity.
One of the major issues of this St. Louis team is underachieving forwards and it’s not just the veterans. Sure, the Blues might like to move Alex Steen or Tyler Bozak, but no-trade clauses alone will limit that possibility. The team would be far more likely to find takers for some of their disappointing young forwards, of which there are many. Robby Fabbri, Zach Sanford, Ivan Barbashev, Nikita Soshnikov, and Sammy Blais are all getting too old to be called prospects, but have yet to prove themselves as difference-makers in the NHL. Each one is an impending restricted free agent this summer and the Blues likely don’t plan to bring the whole group back. St. Louis could benefit from swapping out a young forward or two of their own for other teams’ disappointing forwards in hopes that a new system can turn their game around.
Five Players To Watch For: F Brayden Schenn, F Patrick Maroon, D Jay Bouwmeester, D Carl Gunnarsson, F Sammy Blais
Team Needs
1) Scoring Depth: Obviously, goaltending is the biggest long-term concern of the Blues, but that isn’t going to be addressed at the deadline this year. Next in line then is scoring. As previously mentioned multiple times, one of the fatal flaws of the Blues this season has been a lack of scoring and disappointing efforts from too many regular forwards. St. Louis is 22nd in goals for this season and, even if the veteran core returns to form this season, the fringe pieces lack some upside in the production department. As the team moves out forwards from the roster, old or young, the Blues could benefit from taking a waiver on other teams’ frustrated young forwards to test this season for whether there is a there is a fit moving forward. The Washington Capitals’ Andre Burakovsky, the Vancouver Canucks’ Nikolay Goldobin, or the Montreal Canadiens’ Charles Hudon could all be intriguing options. Finding another name to add to the blossoming next wave of Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou, Klim Kostin, and Dominik Bokk should be a priority.
2) Top Prospect Defenseman: In the course of making possible trades of Schenn or Bouwmeester or a young forward, Armstrong would be smart to target a top young defender in the return. The Blues have some nice 25-and-under pieces on the NHL blue line right now, but the AHL unit lacks much upside and the organization does not really have a blue chip defenseman in the pipeline other than collegiate rearguard Scott Perunovich, who will already be 21 next season when he begins his junior year at the University of Minnesota-Duluth. St. Louis has many exciting, talented forwards waiting to take over a role in the NHL; the team desperately needs to add a defenseman into that group. If they can’t find one via trade, they should focus on the draft and adding picks to make up for their first- and fourth-rounders this year.
Toronto Maple Leafs Acquire Jake Muzzin
There have been many trades so far this season, but with less than a month to go before the NHL Trade Deadline, we finally the first that qualifies as a blockbuster. The Toronto Maple Leafs have announced that they have acquired defenseman Jake Muzzin from the Los Angeles Kings. Going the other way is a package of forward prospect Carl Grundstrom, defense prospect Sean Durzi, and the Leafs’ 2019 first-round pick. TSN’s Darren Dreger reports that Toronto GM Kyle Dubas and L.A. GM Rob Blake had been discussing the framework for this deal for weeks before finally pulling the trigger tonight.
Muzzin, 29, is a major addition for the Maple Leafs. Dubas has been searching for help on the blue line all season long and adds a bona fide top-pair defender without having to move any pieces off his NHL roster. Muzzin is a well-rounded and versatile two-way defenseman. Although he is a left-shot, Muzzin often plays his off side and will likely slot next to Morgan Rielly on Toronto’s top pairing. Muzzin will also play a major role on the penalty kill, as he is a tough, durable defenseman who plays a steady game in his own end. Perhaps more than anything, Muzzin is known as a big game player, capable of playing his best when it matters most. Muzzin was a Stanley Cup champion in 2014 with the Kings and has 20 points and 125 hits in 50 playoff games. He has also starred for Canada on the international stage, including a 2015 World Championship in which he notched eight points in ten games. An experienced and clutch defenseman who excels in all three zones, Muzzin is truly a complete defender joining the back end in Toronto. Add in that he makes just $4MM against the cap and is signed for one more year and you get an acquisition that no one in Toronto should be unhappy with.
Los Angeles should be commended for this trade as well, though. Although Muzzin was one of their best players – arguably their top player this season – they maximized the return from a Leafs team that was unwilling to move any current roster players. Grundstrom and Duzri are two of Toronto’s very best prospects and each project to be NHLers sooner rather than later. Grundstrom, 21, was a second-round pick in 2016 out of Frolunda HC of the Swedish Hockey League. In his first season in North America this year, Grundstrom had 29 points in 42 games for the AHL’s Toronto Marlies. Grundstrom will now join the Ontario Reign and could see action with the Kings before the season is out. The powerful winger is certain to compete for a regular job in L.A. next year. Durzi, 20, was considered the top overage player in the NHL Draft last year and was selected in the second-round as a result. The skilled defenseman has been better than a point-per-game in the OHL this year after returning from injury and has the experience and intelligent game that should translate to the pros easily next season. As for the first-round pick, the Kings have to hope that Muzzin’s addition isn’t enough to get the Leafs past likely playoff opponents in the Boston Bruins and Tampa Bay Lightning, as Toronto’s pick could still very well end up in the early twenties. If the rest of Blake’s fire sale yields similar returns, L.A. is going to be in good shape moving into their rebuild phase.
Snapshots: Mock Draft, Arizona State, Jokinen
Itching for the NHL Entry Draft already? Several fan bases are, as many teams are beyond a reasonable shot at the postseason as the unofficial second half of the season begins. After a recent rash of mid-season draft rankings were published, NHL.com writers Adam Kimelman, Mike Morreale, and Guillaume Lepage tried their hands at a mock draft of the first round for the upcoming draft. They did not conduct a lottery simulation nor did they try to predict how the playoffs would unfold, so the mock is strictly the current standings inverse. However, each of the trio made their own selections and interesting trends can already be spotted. Of course, all three had the Colorado Avalanche, using the Ottawa Senators’ first-rounder, taking U.S. National Team Development Program phenom Jack Hughes first overall. Regardless of who picks first, Hughes is the unanimous pick to go No. 1 in any scenario. There was also a consensus for Finnish winger Kaapo Kakko going second to the New Jersey Devils and Russian winger Vasili Podkolzin going third to the Los Angeles Kings. However, there was not much agreement the rest of the way. Western Hockey League centers Dylan Cozens and Kirby Dach and USNTDP forwards Alex Turcotte and Trevor Zegras went early for all three writers, but no two agreed on the fit for any one team. There was also dissent over the first defenseman taken and where, as Kimelman placed Swedish rearguard Philip Broberg at No. 6 to the New Jersey Devils, while Morreale and Lepage had Canadian blue liner Bowen Byram going No. 7 to the Florida Panthers or No. 8 to the Edmonton Oilers, respectively. One of the biggest surprises was Morreale’s selection of wunderkind goaltender Spencer Knight to the Panthers. While many consider Knight to be the best draft-eligible goalie prospect in some time, no keeper has been taken in the top ten since Carey Price in 2005. The other two writers had Knight at No. 14 to Colorado and No. 24 to the Vegas Golden Knights. Later in the round, opinions differed greatly on OHL defenseman Thomas Harley and hyped overage forward Brett Leason as well. There is still a lot to be decided about the upcoming draft board, not to mention the draft order and the impact of trades, but it is interesting to get a good look at this point in the season as the picture becomes more clear for both the teams and prospects.
- Arizona State University continues to make waves this season in college hockey. In just their fourth year of existence as an NCAA program, ASU is currently ranked No. 17 in the country and could push for a spot in the NCAA Tournament. As AZ Central’s Jeff Metcalfe writes, the play of forward Johnny Walker and goalie Joey Daccord is making all of the difference and beginning to draw national attention. After blanking the immensely talented Boston University Terriers 3-0 on Saturday night, Walker’s two tallies put him in the NCAA lead for goal scoring, while Daccord’s shutout was his NCAA-best seventh of the year. Daccord, 22, was a seventh-round pick of the Ottawa Senators back in 2015 out of Cushing Academy and it is beginning to look like the Sens’ late-round waiver on the long-term project could pay off. Daccord is a junior and could be enticed to turn pro this off-season if Ottawa hopes to avoid him becoming a free agent after another year. Walker, 22, went undrafted as a Phoenix native playing in the NAHL and is only a sophomore at ASU. However, that won’t stop NHL teams from trying to pry him away from college to get a look at his near goal-per-game pace at the pro level. A tournament run by Arizona State would only further amplify the status of these unlikely heroes of the collegiate campaign.
- Veteran forward Jussi Jokinen has been unable to find NHL employment this season. The fact is somewhat amazing considering Jokinen played in 14 or more games with four different NHL teams last season. The well-traveled 35-year-old signed a PTO with the Detroit Red Wings this summer, who would have become his tenth different NHL team, but it did not pan out and no one else has come calling. Finally, Jokinen has decided to move on. Finnish reporter Pasi Tuominen reports that Jokinen is set to sign with Karpat of the Liiga in his native Finland for the remainder of the season. Jokinen will be a valued mentor for top NHL prospects like Rasmus Kupari (LAK) and Aleksi Heponiemi (FLA) while with Karpat and may even lead the first-place team to a championship. Regardless, it is highly likely that Jokinen’s days in the NHL are done. The well-liked and respected forward leaves a great legacy behind him in North America, but will surely continue to play overseas for a few years to come.
Trade Rumors: Duchene, Lightning, Bargains
Seemingly every year, there is speculation that a prominent impending free agent could be the one to finally bring the “sign and trade” back to the NHL. The sign and trade is relatively self explanatory; a player re-signs with his current team to a contract negotiated with a second team that he is subsequently traded to. In the current structure of the NHL, the sign and trade could hypothetically be used to add an eighth year to a contact, as free agents are limited to a cap of seven years when negotiating with a team other than their current club. This season, TSN’s Pierre LeBrun has reopened the sign and trade discussions, this time in regards to Ottawa Senators forward Matt Duchene. LeBrun speculates that Duchene has approximately two weeks to work out an extension with the Senators before the team will be forced to shop him. Ottawa has reportedly already made an initial offer of eight years and $64MM, but Duchene is likely to be eyeing an AAV closer to $9MM per year instead of $8MM. If that counter is too rich for Senators owner Eugene Melnyk and company, the team could not afford to miss out on a the potential return for Duchene at the trade deadline.
When it comes to a sign-and-trade, things get tricky for the player, which could explain why it remains such an infrequently used device in the NHL. While the eighth year is enticing for Duchene, especially at his desired salary, signing that long-term deal means a) getting another team to first agree to that contract and b) trusting the future plans for that franchise. The last time Duchene was traded, from the Colorado Avalanche to the Senators early last season, it didn’t work out so well. Duchene may be hesitant to sign with a team for eight years simply because they can afford to acquire him this season. A sign and trade also eliminates Duchene’s opportunity to test the free agent market and potentially maximize his market value. Duchene will undoubtedly be the top center on the UFA market this summer and may wish to weigh his options rather as a first-time free agent rather than commit to another team so soon before seeing what else is out there. A sign and trade works out nicely for the Senators, as they would surely receive a better return, but finding a trade partner could be difficult and getting Duchene to go along with the plan may not happen. For these reasons, a sign and trade remains an unlikely result to the ongoing Duchene saga.
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have all the makings of a true trade deadline buyer this season: they are the first-place team in the league by a considerable margin, will have upwards of $8MM in cap space by the deadline, and are facing an impending cap crunch that could begin to dismantle their roster as early as this off-season. The Lightning are in win-now mode and, with excellent odds of winning the Stanley Cup, will look to add the best reinforcements they can ahead of the deadline. However, the Lightning may struggle to make the trades typically seen by a true buyer. Tampa Bay currently has 49 players signed to professional contracts against a cap of 50, per CapFriendly. The team probably doesn’t want to hit that 50-contract mark either, as it would take them out of the college and junior free agent market this spring. This means that the Bolts cannot simply trade picks and prospects for rental players. Instead, GM Julien BriseBois will have to get creative with sending under-contract players the other way. Only two of Tampa’s 49 “pro” players are in juniors, meaning that any trades will likely send current AHL contributors to sellers and the team will effort to do so without hurting their postseason depth. At the end of the day, Tampa Bay’s trades at the deadline may end up looking more like hockey trades – player-for-player talent swaps – than you would typically see from a deadline buyer.
- Sportsnet’s Andrew Berkshire believes that there is great long-term value to be found in the current buyer’s market. Berkshire writes that the Los Angeles Kings’ Tyler Toffoli, the Chicago Blackhawks’ Brandon Saad, and the Florida Panthers’ Evgeni Dadonov are among the best bargains potentially available on the market due to their recent struggles and/or under-the-radar trade status. Berkshire states that Toffoli’s value is at a career-low given his current 33-point pace for the down-and-out Kings. However, Toffoli notched 47 points just last year and has 20+ goals in three of the past four seasons. The two-way forward also has a palatable $4.6MM cap hit and could be a buy-low candidate that blows up with a change of scenery. Similarly, Berkshire believes that Saad’s value is still low after bottoming out last season. He has rebounded this season, but is still on pace to fall short of the 50+ points that used to come consistently for him. At $6MM AAV for two more years, Saad’s contract isn’t egregious but is a strain for the cap-strapped Blackhawks. They could be enticed to sell low on the power forward and could very well end up on the wrong side of a Saad trade for the third time. Conversely, Berkshire believes that the Panthers are happy with Dadonov and would be reluctant to move him, but may feel pressured to sell at the deadline despite few obvious rental pieces. The play-making winger is quietly on his way to another 65-point season or better and with one year left on his contract at just $4MM, is already a bargain and could be even better elsewhere. Florida won’t give him up easily, but considering the upside that Dadonov has shown, he could still prove to be a steal even with ample trade capital going the other way.