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Tomas Tatar

East Notes: Petry, Varlamov, Devils UFAs

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It’s hard to claim Pittsburgh Penguins defenseman Jeff Petry had a disappointing season. After being acquired from the Montreal Canadiens in a swap for defenseman Mike Matheson, Petry improved on his offensive totals from the season prior, recording 31 points in 61 games, and he still managed to average over 22 minutes per game. His defensive impacts were also in line with what we’ve come to expect from the veteran defender.

However, the Penguins were hoping for a resurgence to his 2020-21 form, which saw him finish 13th in Norris Trophy voting. It didn’t happen, and with interim general manager Kyle Dubas now at the helm, Petry finds himself on the trade block again after just one season in Pittsburgh, confirms The Athletic’s Rob Rossi. The market for right-shot defenders is generally strong, but with Petry locked in at a $6.25MM cap hit until 2025 and a potentially significant decline coming at any moment, Rossi says there aren’t many quality offers out there for his services.

More from the Eastern Conference rumor cycle today:

  • Expect veteran netminder Semyon Varlamov to end up back on Long Island, says the Fourth Period’s David Pagnotta. The 35-year-old will likely sign a two-year deal, during which he’ll reprise his backup role to countryman Ilya Sorokin. After posting a save percentage north of .910 for four straight seasons, Varlamov would have been one of the better goaltending options available on the free agent market, especially for a team looking to solidify their backup position.
  • The New Jersey Devils don’t have a ton of cap space after announcing a max-length extension for Timo Meier, and as expected, they won’t be making any other major re-signings before free agency opens on Saturday. Defenseman Ryan Graves and forwards Tomas Tatar and Miles Wood are going to test the open market, general manager Tom Fitzgerald confirmed today. Per CapFriendly, the team has around $10.2MM in space but needs to re-sign a quartet of restricted free agents and potentially add a goalie to complement Vitek Vanecek.

This Day In Transactions History: Max Pacioretty Traded To Vegas Golden Knights

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Most teams could only hope to have a draft like the Montreal Canadiens did in 2007, selecting Ryan McDonagh, Max Pacioretty, and P.K. Subban with their first three picks. McDonagh would ultimately be dealt before he could ever dress for Montreal, sent as the centerpiece in the Scott Gomez trade, one which overwhelmingly favored the New York Rangers. Subban and Pacioretty, along with Carey Price, went on to form the core of some formidable Canadiens teams in the mid 2010’s. Following the 2015-16 season, needing to rebound from their first playoff miss in several years, Montreal dealt Subban in one of the biggest one-for-one deals in not only the league’s history, but sports history, sending him to the Nashville Predators for Shea Weber.

The Subban for Weber swap helped Montreal rebound to a playoff berth in 2016-17, but a dreadful 2017-18 forced the organization to re-think things and just before teams were set to hit the ice for training camp, they dealt their star forward and team captain in Pacioretty to the Vegas Golden Knights. Vegas, having burst onto the scene in their first season just a year prior, were looking to make a splash in order to hopefully get over the hump and win the Stanley Cup, falling just short in their first try. Acquiring the regular 30-goal-scorer wasn’t cheap though, Vegas paying handsomely in the amount of  Tomas Tatar, Nick Suzuki and a 2019 second-round pick. The return, put plainly, sounds large, but perhaps fair considering the practice of giving something to get something, Vegas giving up a solid veteran point producer, a then-unproven prospect, and a second-round pick out of their bevy of draft picks and receiving a guaranteed star who immediately signed an extension in return. But, with the benefit of time and context, the perception of the deal now has certainly changed.

To give some perspective on how dynamic this trade ended up being for the Golden Knights, the Canadiens acquired a 60-point forward, a prospect who would become one of the young faces of their franchise, and a second-round pick and there is seemingly less to say on their end. Moving Pacioretty, a star and captain, was surely not an easy move for the Montreal organization to make, but one they felt necessary, especially given the return. Tatar would go on to have 58 and 61 point seasons, the latter coming in just 68 games. His third and final season with the team, 2020-21, saw him dip to 30 points, albeit in 50 games in the COVID shortened campaign, but with just five playoff games amid a deep playoff run. Worth mentioning, the second-round pick was unceremoniously flipped to the Los Angeles Kings for a third and fifth-round pick.

The real prize in the trade, and one that perhaps keeps Vegas management and fans up at night is Suzuki. The 13th overall selection in 2017, Vegas’s second of that evening, Suzuki hadn’t yet debuted for Vegas before he was dealt to Montreal. After the move, the forward spent another season in the OHL, where he wasn’t immune to trade either, dealt midseason from the Owen Sound Attack to the Guelph Storm. Still, none of it phased Suzuki, who had another outstanding junior season. The young forward made his NHL debut for Montreal the following season, finding breakout success in the shortened 2020-21 season, playing a pivotal role in Montreal’s near miss of a Stanley Cup. Following that season (more specifically, October), The Canadiens inked Suzuki to an eight-year, $63MM extension beginning in 2022-23 with the expectation that he could lead the next great set of Montreal teams.

The Vegas side of this blockbuster is a lot murkier. They certainly gave up a lot to get Pacioretty, but that isn’t always the issue with a trade. In fact, the winger brought back as much if not more value than they were expecting. Point for point, Pacioretty had some of his best seasons in Vegas, highlighted by a 51 point performance in 48 games during the shortened 2020-21 season, the only time he hit the point-per-game mark in his career. The real issues for the Golden Knights would be two-fold: (1) money, and (2) when all was said and done, what went in and what went out.

Upon acquiring the Montreal captain, the Golden Knights immediately signed him to a four-year, $28MM extension that began in 2019-20. That deal was fine at the time, Vegas then still in the envious position of being competitive but also utilizing their cap to help other teams for the right price. But, as the contract went on, Vegas continued to spend liberally to reward their successful core and also bring in new assets to help them out. With that, their cap situation became tighter and tighter and Pacioretty’s $7MM cap hit grew more and more imposing. Finally, with the addition of Jack Eichel and his $10MM cap hit part-way through last season, the bubble was set to burst this offseason and Vegas needed to shed a big contract. That would end up being Pacioretty.

As talented as Pacioretty still is, his $7MM cap hit on top of his recent injury history, made taking him on a questionable decision for many teams. Vegas was able to find a suitor, and though they didn’t have to pay anything significant to offload his contract, they received merely future considerations for a player who had 194 points in 224 games for them over the previous four seasons (as well as Dylan Coghlan).

The other troubling aspect of this deal is a completely separate trade made several months prior. At the 2018 trade deadline, with assets in hand and a surprising playoff berth in sight, Vegas made a splash by acquiring Tatar from the Detroit Red Wings. Tatar, like Pacioretty here, didn’t come cheap, as Vegas sent a first, second, and third round pick to Detroit to make it happen. The Czech winger gave Vegas just eight points in 20 regular season games on top of another two points in eight playoff contests ahead of the instant trade. The reason the earlier Tatar trade is important is to consider the context: Vegas, in effect, traded Suzuki, a first, two seconds, and a third for 28 underwhelming games of Tatar and four seasons of Pacioretty, who they then traded away for almost nothing after he actually stepped his production up.

Another interesting wrinkle to all of this, but not one that absolves Vegas of their questionable trade tree, is that Pacioretty tore his Achilles after the trade to Carolina, forcing him to miss at least six months of the upcoming season. Of course, Vegas didn’t know this would happen when they made the deal, preserving the questions regarding their logic in the handling of the forward. Realistically, had this happened before the trade, Vegas could have utilized LTIR with Pacioretty, but had he been ready to return ahead of the playoffs, it would have left the team in a difficult position.

Hindsight is twenty-twenty, as the saying goes, and that applies to any transaction, but the Pacioretty-to-Vegas trade from four years ago today is a fascinating retrospective into roster, cap, and asset management. Vegas gave up plenty for Pacioretty, but it was most likely worthwhile as they got back arguably more than they bargained for. But after four seasons and just one more to go under their current commitment, the team essentially walked away from their player while Montreal continues to reap the reward with one of the league’s most exciting young stars. One question to ponder as we consider these last four years: how is this viewed, all else the same, had Vegas won a Stanley Cup with Pacioretty in the fold?

Devils Remove Five From COVID Protocol, Add Two Others

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Dec 29: Jimmy Vesey has joined Tatar and Gillies in the protocol. The Devils have recalled Jesper Boqvist and Marian Studenic from the taxi squad to fill the empty roster spots.

Dec 26: The Devils got some good news and bad news on the COVID front as they returned from the holiday break.  The team announced that winger Tomas Tatar and goaltender Jon Gillies have been placed in protocols but they were able to activate centers Nico Hischier and Jesper Boqvist plus defensemen Ryan Graves, P.K. Subban, and Christian Jaros from the COVID list.  Tatar and Gillies will be out for the next ten days.

Tatar is in his first season with New Jersey after signing a two-year deal with them in the offseason and is off to a quiet start offensively with just six goals in 30 games although his possession stats are once again well above the league average which was also the case when he played with Montreal previously.  Meanwhile, Gillies was just acquired from St. Louis to give them another option between the pipes with both Mackenzie Blackwood and Jonathan Bernier injured.  Fortunately for the Devils, Blackwood has returned to practice and should be ready to play soon.

As for those returning, Hischier sits second on the Devils in assists with 13 in 25 games although his three goals are underwhelming for the 2017 first-overall pick.  Boqvist has been up and down with the team this season and has suited up in eight NHL contests so far.  They’ll get a nice boost on their back end with the returns of Graves and Subban who sit third and fifth respectively in ATOI among New Jersey blueliners while Jaros has had a very limited reserve role.

New Jersey is set to play against Buffalo on Wednesday in their first game back from the break barring any further changes or postponements.

New Jersey Devils Sign Tomas Tatar

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The New Jersey Devils have added another one of the top free agents available, this time signing Tomas Tatar to a two-year contract. The deal will come with an average annual value of $4.5MM, paying Tatar $3.75MM in 2021-22 and $5.25MM in 2022-23.

Tatar joins Dougie Hamilton and Jonathan Bernier as the three big veteran signings for the Devils this season, adding some experience to an incredibly young group. The 30-year-old Tatar is now the oldest forward signed to a one-way deal, nearly four years the senior of Andreas Johnsson, the second-oldest.

Even though he found himself on the outside of the playoff lineup in Montreal, Tatar is still a consistent offensive presence that should add a different dimension to the Devils forward group. In 50 games this season he registered 30 points and led the Canadiens in scoring during the 2019-20 season. That year he had a career-high 61 points in just 68 games, showing just how effective he can be in the right situation.

There are some doubts about how he affects the game in the defensive end, but there’s no doubt that he can help the Devils score next year. That’s something they had immense trouble accomplishing this year, as Pavel Zacha led the team with just 35 points. Tatar could represent an option on the wing of either Nico Hischier or Jack Hughes, giving them a little more experience and playmaking ability than they’re used to.

In fact, this looks like a bit of a steal by the Devils, jumping on a player whose market is a bit depressed from recent events. Tatar has been an incredibly consistent scoring threat over his career, breaking the 20-goal mark in six straight seasons before 2020-21. While his time in Montreal had obviously run out, his next chapter in New Jersey could be even more productive, given how much ice time–both at even-strength and on the powerplay–he’s likely to receive.

For the Devils, they could have paid Tatar $10MM this season and it wouldn’t have made much of an impact on their cap situation. The team has plenty to work with, and though there are several RFA deals to negotiate next summer, P.K. Subban’s $9MM is coming off the books. For a team with no cap issues, taking a shot on a player like Tatar is a no-brainer, given the fact they could just flip him down the road for more assets if the team is still not in a competitive window.

PuckPedia was first to report the contract details.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Free Agent Profile: Tomas Tatar

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As things start to settle down after a whirlwind first few days of free agency, teams around the league will be taking stock of who is still out there and looking at where those players could possibly fit in.  One of the players that several teams will certainly be considering is Tomas Tatar.

His case has been a strange one to follow over the years.  Go back to 2018 and his stock was on the rise.  He was coming off four straight years of 19 goals or more and was the big addition by Vegas at the trade deadline.  The hope was that Tatar would give their offense a boost as they went on a long playoff run.  They had the long run but Tatar did so little that he was a healthy scratch for more than half of it.  Months later, his stock much lower, he was included as salary ballast in a trade to Montreal with Vegas paying down a small portion of his contract.

With the Canadiens, Tatar rebounded, putting up 25 and 22 goals in his first two seasons with the team and his stock was on the rise again.  Again, however, that changed fairly quickly.  His numbers dipped last season to just 10 goals and 20 assists in 50 games, still decent but he spent a good chunk of the year on their top line while posting strong possession numbers.  By the end of it, he was back in the press box periodically and in the playoffs, he suited up in just five of 22 games.

How should Tatar be viewed?  It’s one of those glass half-full or half-empty situations.  On the one hand, here’s a player that coming into 2020-21 had seven straight years of 19 or more goals which is legitimate consistent top-six production on a lot of teams.  On the other hand, two teams now have seen fit to bench him for extended periods of time during a run to the Stanley Cup Final.  Those true but vastly diverse points make him a particularly intriguing free agent.

Stats

2020-21: 50 GP, 10-20-30, even rating, 8 PIMS, 82 shots, 58.9 CF%, 14:59 ATOI

Career: 625 GP, 176-201-377, +23 rating, 224 PIMS, 1,351 shots, 56.9 CF%, 15:36 ATOI

Potential Suitors

Who has a vacancy on the left wing in their top six and some cap space at their disposal?  Even with the recent poor playoff performances, Tatar should have enough of a regular season track record to generate interest from several teams.

In the East, New Jersey has the green light to spend and already made a big splash on the back end in Dougie Hamilton.  But they haven’t been able to do much of anything up front and Tatar would certainly give them a boost on the wing to work with one of their young centers in Jack Hughes or Nico Hischier.  Tatar would fill a hole in Buffalo although the Sabres aren’t a team that appears to be trying to win much next season but on a short-term trade, he could be a sign and flip option.  There is plenty of secrecy around the Islanders who have been linked to Kyle Palmieri and Zach Parise but if one of those falls through, Tatar fits as a fallback option.  Carolina is typically a strong possession team where Tatar could fit in but they’d need to have a good sense of what Andrei Svechnikov’s next deal would cost to see if they can afford him or not.

Out West, no team needs scoring more than Anaheim whose only addition up front this summer has been Buddy Robinson on a two-way deal.  Tatar could immediately step into an impact role for them.  Nashville has yet to fill the vacancy created by the Viktor Arvidsson trade and Tatar would be able to replace him from an offensive standpoint.  Seattle could still stand to add to their forward group but with the Kraken appearing to be emphasizing cap flexibility, Tatar may appeal to them only on a short-term contract.  Arizona is another team that doesn’t appear to be overly concerned with next season but Tatar would certainly improve their fortunes and could be an option as a sign and flip there as well.  If Tatar is willing to take a one-year deal, Colorado may have enough wiggle room on the cap to make it work if he takes a bit less than what his market value should be.

Projected Contract

Tatar ranked 15th in our Top 50 UFA list with a projected three-year, $12MM contract.  There are definitely concerns with what has happened lately in the playoffs but with his regular season performances, Tatar should still have a sizable list of teams that have cap space interested in him so he could still command close to that $4MM AAV on a multi-year contract as one of the top free agents remaining.  If he goes a few weeks without signing, however, a one-year deal could become a more feasible option with an eye on rebuilding his value to improve his free agent fortunes a year from now.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Snapshots: Tatar, Dumba, Devils, Murphy, Hamonic

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The Montreal Canadiens will be without Tomas Tatar Saturday against the Toronto Maple Leafs, who is a healthy scratch, according to Sportsnet’s Eric Engels. The move made by head coach Claude Julien is believed to be a message sent to both Tatar and the team after Montreal has lost three of their last four games.

Tatar, despite having four goals and eight points in 14 games, has been adequate on the ice, but not as good as last season when he posted 22 goals and 61 points in 68 games. Engels believes that the message is meant just as much to the team as Tatar is one of the most popular players in the locker room.

The Philadelphia Flyers attempted a similar benching of leading scorer Travis Konecny on Jan. 30. Unfortunately, he has not scored a point since then.

  • Corey Masisak of The Athletic reports that a New Jersey Devils team spokesman said the team will be allowed to return to practice on Monday. That will be the first time the team has been allowed on the ice since the game at Buffalo on Jan. 31. The team is currently scheduled to play on Tuesday at the New York Rangers.
  • The Minnesota Wild got even more good news when they learned that defenseman Matt Dumba should be in the lineup on Tuesday when they begin playing once again after suffering what looked to be a severe ankle injury, according to Star Tribune’s Sarah McLellan. Dumba got tangled up with teammate Jordan Greenway and suffered an awkward fall on Jan. 30, but the blueliner said that he’s feeling good and has no issues regarding the injury. The 26-year-old Dumba is looking solid this season, already with three goals in just nine games this season. Teammate Mats Zuccarello is also getting closer to a return. The veteran forward practiced Friday in a non-contact jersey.
  • The Chicago Blackhawks have placed defenseman Connor Murphy on injured reserve, retroactive to Feb. 9, according to NHL.com’s Brandon Cain. The blueliner was suffered a right hip injury in that game and is expected to miss up to two weeks. Murphy has been playing well for Chicago with two goals and five points in 13 games, while averaging 22:45 of ATOI.
  • The Vancouver Canucks could be getting a boost back to their defense as head coach Travis Green reported that defenseman Travis Hamonic is close to returning to the team. The 30-year-old blueliner remains on long-term injured reserve with an upper-body injury. He has only appeared in five games with the Canucks this year with two assists, but could be a big addition if he returns soon.

Injury Notes: Vatanen, Lankinen, Tatar, Staal

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The Carolina Hurricanes decided to take the risk at the trade deadline of acquiring an injured rental defenseman, and it may be about to bite them. Sara Civian of The Athletic reports that Hurricanes head coach Rod Brind’Amour does not expect Vatanen back any time soon after suffering a setback today.

Vatanen hasn’t played since February 1st with the New Jersey Devils, but the Hurricanes still gave up Janne Kuokkanen and a conditional draft pick to acquire his services down the stretch. How many actual games that may consist of isn’t clear at this point, especially given the fact that the Hurricanes are currently outside the playoff picture. Carolina still has 18 games remaining.

  • Should the Chicago Blackhawks need an extra goaltender down the stretch, it won’t be Kevin Lankinen. The 24-year old is out for the next four to five months after shoulder surgery, ending his season with the Rockford IceHogs. Lankinen, an undrafted free agent signing out of Finland, had posted a .909 save percentage through 21 AHL games this season.
  • Tomas Tatar won’t be with the Montreal Canadiens for a while, as he instead will fly back to Montreal for further evaluation. Tatar suffered an upper-body injury earlier this week and hasn’t improved yet. The skilled forward is the team’s leading scorer, and with just 14 games any absence will only be amplified.
  • Though not an injury, Eric Staal will also not be with his team while they go on the road. The Minnesota Wild center has left the team for the time being after a death in his family. The Wild begin a three-game west coast road trip tonight.

Edmonton Oilers Have “Looked Into” Tomas Tatar

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If there’s one line repeated ad nauseam this trade deadline, it will be that the Edmonton Oilers need help on the wing. Now that Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have been split up for the most part and are driving two different lines, the prevailing thought is that they will add a body or two to give them a little more depth. You wouldn’t blame GM Ken Holland for looking around for a familiar face then. Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet writes in his latest 31 Thoughts column that the Oilers have “looked into” Montreal Canadiens forward Tomas Tatar, who of course has a long history with Holland from their time in Detroit.

Tatar, who is also drawing interest from the Pittsburgh Penguins according to Friedman, has resurrected his career in Montreal after an ill-fated stopover with the Vegas Golden Knights. After setting career-highs with 25 goals and 58 points last season, Tatar is ready to blow past those numbers in 2019-20. He currently sits with 20 goals and 50 points in 55 games, leading the Canadiens in both categories by a fairly wide margin.

Why would Montreal want to trade Tatar then? Well, this season hasn’t gone according to plan for the Canadiens who even with their recent strong play still sit seven points out of an Atlantic Division playoff spot. The final wild card position is actually even further away, and Montreal would have to jump over several teams to land either one.

There’s also the fact that Tatar is only signed for one more year and just turned 29. While he has obviously been a great fit for the team, trading him now could provide a pretty significant return given he would represent two playoff runs for any acquiring team.

In 2018 when the Golden Knights acquired Tatar from the Red Wings, he had three additional seasons on his deal at a $5.3MM cap hit. He also only had 16 goals and 28 points through 62 games, but Vegas still decided to give up a first, a second and a third-round pick for him. After the Golden Knights retained salary in the subsequent move, he now costs just $4.8MM against the cap and is having and much more successful season. That’s why Friedman writes that any team would have to “move the needle” to really interest Montreal GM Marc Bergevin, but also why he could be one of the biggest names on the market if made available.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Poll: Toughest First-Round Opponent For Tampa Bay Lightning?

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It’s been months since any team in the East other than the Tampa Bay Lightning was considered to have any real chance at the top seed in the conference. The Lightning have been one of the most dominant regular season teams in recent memory, locking up the President’s Trophy more than two weeks ago and joining the 60-win club earlier this week.

What has also been clear for some time is that Tampa would be destined to face the Boston Bruins or Toronto Maple Leafs in the second round of the playoffs, as their two divisional rivals have been near the top of the league standings for much of the year and always on a collision course to play each other in round one due to the NHL’s current playoff format. Yet, it’s easy to forget that the Lightning too have to win in the first round. Many have taken it as a foregone conclusion that Tampa would advance, but upsets occur in sports and the Lighting are as susceptible to a collapse as any heavy favorites that have fallen in the past.

So who has the best chance to knock off the regular season champs? Well, the defending Stanley Cup winners would have been an ideal match-up, but the Washington Capitals pulled out of range of a wild card finish earlier this week and clinched the top seed in the Metropolitan Division with a win on Thursday. The New York Islanders, with their suffocating defensive style and stellar goaltending, also would have been an intriguing opponent, but they have also assured themselves of a non-wildcard spot. Finally, the star-studded Pittsburgh Penguins would have made for a difficult and highly entertaining series with the Bolts, but a win on Thursday night guaranteed that they cannot finish any lower than seventh in the conference.

That leaves three potential opponents for Tampa Bay in round one: the Carolina Hurricanes, the Columbus Blue Jackets, and the Montreal Canadiens. Two of these three teams will make the playoffs – Carolina has clinched a playoff berth with a Thursday night victory – but only one will be lucky enough to land the second wild card spot and go up against the Lightning. Of these three, which one could pull off the eight seed upset?

The Hurricanes are on pace to finish seventh in the East and avoid Tampa and they cannot be caught by the Canadiens. However, if the the Blue Jackets pass by Carolina, the team would have to celebrate their first postseason in ten years by playing the Bolts. The ’Canes could give the Lightning problems with their ability to suppress shots, as they are the only team in the conference that allows less than 29 shots per game on average. A defense corps that is among the deepest and most talented in the league makes offense a struggle for the opposition and the added bonus of consistent play in net explains why Carolina is eighth-best in the league in goals against per game. Despite the franchise’s lack of postseason experience of late, Justin Williams and Jordan Staal are also major assets when it comes to playing smart, tough playoff hockey. The main concern for the Hurricanes though is that they have not been as successful offensively as they have been defensively. Despite leading the league in shots per game, the team is 16th in goals for per game and 20th on the power play and they’ve lacked game-breaking scoring talent this season outside of Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen. It’s impossible to expect to shutout Tampa Bay, so if Carolina can’t find some secondary scoring they could struggle against the Bolts.

As of now, Columbus looks like the favorite to finish eighth and play Tampa. That might not be what GM Jarmo Kekalainen expected when he added Matt Duchene, Ryan Dzingel, and Adam McQuaid at the trade deadline, but those moves will certainly help anyway. The Blue Jackets franchise has never won a playoff series and doing so against this Lightning team would be a tall task. However, they have both considerable talent and a chip on their shoulder. Like Carolina, Columbus does not allow many shots nor many goals and additionally have the best penalty kill in the conference. Unlike Carolina, they also have a star goalie in Sergei Bobrovsky. The Jackets would need Bobrovksy to shake off past struggles in the postseason, but if he does the Vezina Trophy-winner could be a game-changer. Offensively, Columbus has had an up-and-down year but are currently 12th in goals for per game. Duchene and Dzingel are major additions to a forward unit that already included elite talent like Artemi Panarin and Cam Atkinson. Unfortunately, all of this ability up front has still not led to consistent offense nor has it cured a miserable power play. Failure to capitalize on opportunities could be the Achilles heel of this team.

Then there’s Montreal, who need some help to make the playoffs, but could make waves if they do. The Canadiens can only end up in the eighth seed, so it’s Tampa or bust. Montreal can never quite be counted out with Carey Price in net and Shea Weber on the blue line, but the question is whether the other pieces are there to pull off not one but four wins against the Bolts. To their credit, the Habs have been a very balanced, consistent team this season that is right in the middle of the pack when it comes to goals and shots for as well as goals and shots against. Their power play is dead last in the NHL, which is obviously not typical of a playoff team, but it’s hard to find many other holes in their game. The problem is that nothing jumps out as being good enough for a massive upset, either. If Max Domi and Tomas Tatar stay hot and Price stands on his head as usual, anything is possible, but the Canadiens have simply been a good team and anyone who beats the Lightning will need to be great. Can they step up?

What do you think? The standings might say Columbus is the most likely opponent for Tampa Bay at this point, but who would be the toughest match-up for the President’s Trophy winners?

One Year Later: Matt Duchene Will Dictate The Senators’ Future

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A year ago today, the Ottawa Senators made a three-team deal with the Colorado Avalanche and the Nashville Predators. Since then, names like Erik Karlsson, Ryan McDonagh, Rick Nash, Evander Kane, and Tomas Tatar (twice) have all been traded. Yet, it’s that November 5th deal that is still the most memorable recent trade for many, due to both the immediate impact and the lasting results.

In that trade, Ottawa – at a contract impasse with center Kyle Turris – dealt he, first-round prospect forward Shane Bowers, goaltender Andrew Hammond, a first-round pick, and a third-round pick to Colorado. The Avs then flipped Turris to Nashville for defenseman Samuel Girard, forward Vladislav Kamenev, and a second-round pick. It was quite a haul for Colorado and they have yet to even use either of Ottawa’s picks, including a likely lottery pick in the first round next year. The Predators meanwhile signed Turris to a six-year extension and he has 53 points in 79 games since joining the team. The return for all of this for the Senators? Matt Duchene, who a year later is in limbo with an expiring contract and a team that is far from the contender he was promised.

As TSN’s Ian Mendes notes, Senators GM Pierre Dorion was coming off a 2016-17 season that saw his team make a run to the Eastern Conference final. When he acquired Duchene, he thought it could be the final piece of the puzzle to get them back and through that third round of the playoffs. Instead, Ottawa sunk to the second-worst record in the NHL. It’s too late to reverse that trade or the events of last season. The team could have simply traded Turris for picks and prospects at the deadline, as Mendes points out, and certainly could have found a deal for a top-six forward this off-season that was far less expensive. Their first-round pick in 2019 could be first overall, franchise center Jack Hughes, and there’s nothing they could do. Boston University standout Bowers could blossom into a top-line forward, but there’s no recourse for that. The only element of the trade left in the control of Dorion and the Senators is the future of Duchene and with it potentially the future of the team.

Ottawa is faced with two choices this season: pay Duchene or trade him. The 2009 third overall pick carries a $6MM cap hit on his current contract. If he were to hit the open market, he would certainly be due a raise. Duchene’s alleged reason for wanting out of Colorado last season was ironically that he didn’t want to play through a rebuild. If that is still his mindset, it would take a substantial sum from the Senators to keep him around. Owner Eugene Melnyk has been unwilling to pay his better player their fair value, leading to the Karlsson trade and likely more moves to come. Will he make an exception for Duchene? If not, the Senators need to move Duchene and sooner rather than later. The trade deadline will be the final opportunity to trade the star center, who will have a long list of suitors, but his value drops each day leading up to that point. Dorion will likely never get back a package commensurate with what he gave up for Duchene, but his best chance to get close is to trade him as soon as possible to the highest bidder.

Either option serves to benefit the Senators. Duchene may not be a superstar, but he is a talented, well-rounded player who is capable of leading Ottawa out of the basement if provided with at least a little support. On the other side, the team cannot escape the reality of their own rebuild and could greatly use the trade capital that they would gain from a Duchene trade. The worst case scenario – and a veritable death knell for the franchise – would be to make neither decision, opting not to trade Duchene and waiting and hoping for an extension agreement only to watch him walk away in free agency. One year later, this notorious trade is still so prevalent around the NHL. The Senators should celebrate the anniversary by making another major move with Duchene – a new contract or another trade – as soon as humanly possible.

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