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Free Agent Focus: Los Angeles Kings

at CDT | by 9 Comments

Free agency is now less than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Kings.

Key Restricted Free Agents:

F Brendan Lemieux – After being traded three times in his career, first from the Buffalo Sabres to the Winnipeg Jets, then to the New York Rangers, and finally to the Kings, the known agitator seems to have finally settled in with Los Angeles in a role that fits him. Despite being out of playoff contention in 2020-21, the Kings made the move to acquire Lemieux from the Rangers ahead of the trade deadline, using him to protect their young players and get under the skin of their opponents. Not necessarily known for his scoring, Lemieux has just 60 points in 230 career games, 13 points and 50 games coming this past season, but does carry 410 career penalty minutes, 97 of which came in 2021-22. Coming off a two-year deal that carried a $1.55MM AAV, Lemieux’s next contract may not look much different, but with what he’s brought to the Kings, he presumably won’t have to worry much about getting another NHL deal.

F Adrian Kempe – Besides finding a way to help the organization take the next step in its accelerated rebuild, perhaps the biggest agenda item for Kings’ GM Rob Blake this offseason will be a new contract for the All Star forward. Kempe, who will turn 26 in September, had a sensational breakout season for Los Angeles, finding the back of the net 35 times, adding 19 assists for 54 points in 78 games. Before his breakout, Kempe was most likely going to see a raise over the $2MM AAV he carried the past three seasons, given his average of 31 points per 82 games over the life of that contract. However, by eclipsing that average point total just in goals scored this season, being relatively close to UFA status, and his arbitration eligibility, Kempe could see a major bump in salary this offseason, especially if the Kings are looking at a long-term agreement.

D Sean Durzi – Originally a second-round pick of the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2018 and later traded for defenseman Jake Muzzin, Durzi took some time to make it to the NHL, but has now established himself as a piece of the Kings future on the blueline. The 23-year-old made his NHL debut on November 24th against the team that drafted him, skating in all of the Kings’ final 64 games, recording 27 points and averaging 19:36 in time-on-ice, good for sixth amongst Kings’ skaters. Given his experience, Durzi isn’t yet arbitration eligible, but he could still wind up with a rather significant contract extension due to his age and his emergence as a building block in Los Angeles.

Other RFA’s: F Jaret Anderson-Dolan, F Lias Andersson, F Carl Grundstrom, F Johan Sodergran, F Vladimir Tkachev, F Gabriel Vilardi, D Frederic Allard, D Michael Anderson, G Matt Villalta

Key Unrestricted Free Agents:

F Andreas Athanasiou – The soon-to-be 28-year-old had the unfortunate luck of dealing with injuries throughout his walk-year, playing in just 28 games this season. On the bright side for Athanasiou, he did manage 17 points in that span, the second-highest points-per-game total of his career. After being allowed to leave the Edmonton Oilers following the 2019-20 season, Athanasiou signed a one-year, $1.2MM contract for the shortened 2020-21 season, where he impressed with 23 points n 47 games, earning a one-year, $2.7MM contract for this season. Athanasiou may have been due a higher salary and perhaps additional term this time around, but given his injury issues this season, that may not be the case. Still, given his production when he is in the lineup, the Kings could realistically bring Athanasiou back, and supplement his spot in the lineup with some of their younger players if the injuries persist.

D Alexander Edler – Once seen as a lifetime member of the Vancouver Canucks, Edler wasn’t brought back to Vancouver after the 2020-21 season and ultimately signed a one-year contract worth $3.5MM with Los Angeles. Edler had a solid bounce-back season with the Kings, albeit in limited action, recording 19 points in 41 games, including an impressive plus-18 rating. The 36-year-old defenseman probably won’t be offered the career-high $6MM AAV he carried in 2019-20 and 2020-21, but did show this season that he absolutely still belongs in the NHL if he wants to stay. What Edler chooses to do is still up in the air, as he may not want to venture too far from the west coast where he has spent his entire NHL career, but options may be more limited for an older defenseman who could command at least $3.5MM next year, if not more.

D Olli Maatta – Not the player he was when he burst onto the scene with the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2013-14, Maatta has revived his career to an extent, showing he can be a reliable player on an NHL team. Though recording just eight points in 60 games with the Kings this season, Maatta did show promise with his plus-17 rating in 18:17 of average time-on-ice. The six-year, $24.5MM contract he just finished is likely not something he will find as a UFA this offseason, but Maatta should be an intriguing option for a number of teams, now marketed as a steady veteran defenseman.

Other UFA’s: F Martin Frk, D Nelson Nogier, D Troy Stecher, D Austin Strand, D Christian Wolanin, G Garret Sparks

Projected Cap Space:

Los Angeles projects to have just under $20MM in cap space this offseason, $19.863MM to be exact, with only a few semi-expensive moves to make. For one, they will have to give Kempe his predictably large raise and while they may be able to bring Durzi back on a team-friendly cap hit, they may be better off inking the defenseman long-term given his age, but that may create a larger cap hit than necessary for next season. Although $20MM may seem a bit low for a team that is still coming off of a rebuild, when factoring in the fact that the Kings have a bulk of their core signed for multiple seasons, including Anze Kopitar, Phillip Danault, and Drew Doughty who are all already signed long-term, the number feels more understandable and workable.

With the remaining space, the King will likely look to add a few pieces to help round out a team that wasn’t necessarily expected to make the playoffs this season, let alone take the Oilers to seven games in the first round, especially considering they got just 39 games total from Doughty, a franchise cornerstone. If the organization wants to create additional cap space, they could look to trade goaltender Jonathan Quick, who carries a $5.8MM cap hit next season, and move onto Calvin Petersen full-time.

Free Agent Focus: Minnesota Wild

at CDT | by 6 Comments

Free agency is now less than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Wild.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Kevin Fiala — Fiala might be the most high-profile casualty of GM Bill Guerin’s decision to buy out both Ryan Suter and Zach Parise last offseason. The Wild are facing a $6.3MM cap penalty from each of Parise and Suter’s buyouts for next season, and that figure rises to $7.3MM for the next two seasons after 2022-23. So, that has meant that the Wild have essentially acknowledged their reality with Fiala, that they can’t afford the long-term deal he could get from elsewhere and that the best option for both the team and player is a trade this offseason. So, for the Wild, Fiala’s restricted free agency isn’t about what his next contract will look like but is instead about what the return for him will be in a trade. Fiala had 85 points in 82 games this past year and drove the Wild’s second line. Fiala will face questions about his game, namely regarding his playoff woes, as he had only one playoff goal over the past two seasons. Additionally, there is the fair question of how a Fiala-led line would produce outside of an environment where they have another top line to absorb the opposing team’s toughest defensive matchups, as the Kirill Kaprizov line did in Minnesota. But even with those questions, Fiala is in line to be paid this summer, especially when one considers the additional leverage he will hold over any team that acquires him via trade.

D Jacob Middleton — The Wild made a slew of trade deadline additions in order to bolster their squad, and one of their lower-profile pickups was acquiring Middleton from the San Jose Sharks. The Wild surrendered goalie Kaapo Kahkonen in the deal, someone who was once considered to be the Wild’s “goalie of the future.” Guerin’s willingness to part with Kahkonen to get Middleton is an indication of how firmly he believed in Middleton’s fit in Minnesota. Middleton, 26, was brought to the Wild because of his physicality and overall defensive game. He averaged just under 18 minutes per night as a member of the Wild and also featured on their penalty kill. The Wild clearly like what Middleton brings, meaning an extension with some term attached can’t be ruled out. The presence of the buyouts obviously complicates things, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Middleton gets a contract between $2MM-3MM to stay in Minnesota, contracts similar to the ones other defense-first blueliners such as Tucker Poolman, Dylan DeMelo and Derek Forbort received.

Other RFA’s: F Mitchell Chaffee, F Nick Swaney, D Fedor Gordeev, G Dereck Baribeau

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

G Marc-Andre Fleury — The Wild acquired the 2021 Vezina Trophy winner at the trade deadline and alternated between him and Cam Talbot for the rest of 2021-22. The Wild are interested in a return for that tandem, but Fleury may be able to earn a larger contract from elsewhere. Fleury did not play to Vezina Trophy form last year, but he was still solid, especially after his trade to the Wild. He didn’t have a great playoffs, but few on the Wild did, and Fleury is at the point in his career where a small dip in performance isn’t likely to tank his earning potential anyway. Fleury is still widely viewed as a starting-caliber goalie, so while he’ll turn 38 later this year a retirement doesn’t seem to be in the cards just yet. What Fleury makes on the open market this offseason will likely depend on if he prioritizes fit over cost on his next contract and therefore whether he is willing to take a smaller contract in order to sign with the team he prefers.

F Nicolas Deslauriers — While the NHL is about speed and skill more than ever before, there is still room in the league for players like Deslauriers and his trip to unrestricted free agency will likely reflect that. The Wild acquired Deslauriers near the deadline to add some grit to their team, and Deslauriers did just that. He didn’t do very much else, with only three goals and zero assists in his 25 total games with the Wild, but that’s what’s about expected from Deslauriers, given that he has only 85 points in over 500 career games. Some fans might scoff at the idea of their team bringing Deslauriers in as a free agent, but he’s clearly valued by the league’s decision-makers and liked by his coaches. A return to Minnesota is definitely possible, although they could prefer to divert as many cap dollars as possible to scoring help in order to compensate for the expected loss of Fiala, which would then push Deslauriers out.

F Nick Bjugstad — Bjugstad, a Minneapolis native, is no longer the player that scored nearly 50 points on Aleksander Barkov’s wing in Florida. Major injury woes have taken their toll on Bjugstad’s play, and since scoring 49 points in 2017-18 Bjugstad hasn’t crossed the 20-point mark since. In Minnesota, Bjugstad has stabilized his career and become a semi-regular face in the Wild’s bottom-six. He didn’t play well enough this past year to earn a spot in the Wild’s postseason lineup, and despite his bottom-six role he has not featured on the Wild’s penalty kill. Bjugstad played on a $900k cap hit last season and, if Minnesota is interested, should be available to them at a similar number for next season.

Other UFA’s: D Jordie Benn, F Brandon Baddock, F Kyle Rau, F Nolan Stevens, F Dominic Turgeon, D Jon Lizotte, G Zane McIntyre

Projected Salary Cap Space

This is the area where the Wild face their greatest challenge. The previously mentioned buyouts of Suter and Parise have left Guerin and the Wild’s front office operating with a significantly lower effective salary cap than other clubs. The buyouts will cost the team nearly $13MM in cap space this offseason and $15MM for the next two after this summer. As a result, the Wild have only $6.5MM in projected cap space this summer. Trading defensemen with only one year left on their deals such as Dmitry Kulikov or even Matt Dumba could give them some more room, but whatever way you cut it the Wild will find it difficult to make major additions in the next few offseasons without some real creativity involved.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Pittsburgh Penguins

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With the offseason in full swing aside from the two teams in the Stanley Cup Final, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Penguins.

Despite some key injuries in the playoffs, the Penguins nearly got past the Rangers in the opening round which gave GM Ron Hextall a tough choice to either run it back with this same core with Sidney Crosby still a high-end center or to start a rebuilding phase.  Considering their stated intention is to keep their win-now window open, their summer checklist reflects that.

Get Goaltending Stability

Tristan Jarry was once viewed as Pittsburgh’s goalie of the future following a stellar junior career.  When Matt Murray was traded to Ottawa two drafts ago, he became their goalie of the present.  However, it’s now fair to wonder whether or not he’s their goalie of the future beyond next season.  The 27-year-old is coming off a strong regular season that saw him post a GAA of 2.49 and a.919 SV% but 159 games into his NHL career, there are still some questions about whether or not he should be their long-term starter.  If management is sold on Jarry, then working out a long-term extension with an AAV starting with a five would be worthwhile and that move can be made as of July 13th.

But what if they don’t feel that way or want to see what 2022-23 brings before making that type of commitment?  That’s when things start to get a bit dicey.  There is no Jarry-like prospect in the minors that’s a year or two away from being NHL-ready.  There isn’t even an NHL-caliber backup under contract with Casey DeSmith set to become an unrestricted free agent this summer and journeyman Louis Domingue (their starter for most of the playoffs) also hitting the open market.  In an ideal world, they would add a quality backup on a multi-year deal and give themselves a short-term upgrade at that second spot and a bit of longer-term stability.

Of course, an ideal world implies that they have the cap space to do this and accomplish their other summer objectives.  As we’ll get to shortly, the only way something like this could happen is if things don’t go well on those other fronts.  A short-term low-cost deal might be all they can afford and if they head into next season with Jarry on an expiring deal and a short-term backup, that’s not an ideal situation to have for a very important position.

Keep Or Replace Veteran Stars

Now, let’s get to the obvious.  Right now, Pittsburgh has over $23MM in cap space which sounds wonderful without context.  That context is that two of their long-time veteran stars, center Evgeni Malkin and defenseman Kris Letang, will become unrestricted free agents next month.  Accordingly, most (if not all) of their offseason planning will revolve around this duo in terms of trying to keep them or finding a way to replace them.

When healthy, Malkin remains a high-end NHL center and has averaged less than a point per game just once in the last decade.  However, there’s one other key thing that has happened just once in the last decade and that’s the 36-year-old playing at least 70 games in a season.  Malkin has had long run-ins with injury trouble and this past season was no exception which really complicates things from a valuation standpoint.  When Malkin is in the lineup and producing at a point-per-game rate, his market value isn’t that far off from the $9.5MM AAV of his soon-to-expire contract.  But since he can’t stay in the lineup consistently, it’s also a huge risk to give him that type of money.  The only way the Penguins can make part of his pay based on staying healthy is with a one-year deal and Malkin has no reason to accept that as he can likely land a three-year or four-year commitment next month.  While a pay cut is likely, it probably won’t be a substantial one.

Then there’s Letang.  Over the last four seasons, only three blueliners have more points than the 35-year-old.  The low-end in terms of AAV for those three players is $7.875MM (Victor Hedman who left money on the table to stay in Tampa Bay) and the high end is $9.059MM (Nashville’s Roman Josi).  You can be sure that Letang’s representatives will be pointing that out in negotiations.  Letang isn’t a stalwart defensive defender but he has killed penalties for the Penguins and while he has had injury issues of his own in the past, he has been healthier in recent years.  While Pittsburgh would love to try to get Letang for less than his expiring $7.25MM cap hit, he could very easily get more if he gets to the open market.  The length of the contract is a priority though so if the Penguins are willing to go with a longer deal than they might prefer, it should yield a lower AAV than he’d get otherwise.

Both players have been franchise stalwarts for the last 16 years but with everything else that Hextall needs to go this summer, it will be difficult to keep (or replace) both at market value and still have money left to fill their other needs.  But with how important those two are, they’re certainly going to try to find a way to make it work.

Create Cap Flexibility

If Hextall is going to be able to keep both of his veteran stars, keep some of the other notable pending UFAs (including wingers Rickard Rakell and Evan Rodrigues), find a quality backup goalie, and leave some wiggle room for in-season movement, something has to give.  Some tough decisions are going to need to be made on some impact players.

One of those is winger Kasperi Kapanen.  The team has twice used a first-round pick on him, first to draft him and then another to re-acquire him back in 2020 but the return on their reinvestment wasn’t great in 2021-22.  After an impressive shortened campaign, the 25-year-old struggled this past season, notching just 11 goals and 21 assists in 32 games while chipping in with three assists in their seven-game loss to the Rangers.  That’s not a terrible return on a $3.2MM cap hit but it’s safe to say they were hoping for more.  If they tender him a qualifying offer this summer (technically speaking, that offer is only worth $840K based on the structure of his expiring deal), Kapanen will be arbitration-eligible where his prior years could push his value closer to $4MM which is below the walkaway threshold.  His trade value won’t be overly high because of this situation so a non-tender is a definite possibility.  While that would create some extra flexibility, it’d also create another impact roster spot to be filled.

Then there’s Jason Zucker, another winger.  Former Penguins GM Jim Rutherford paid a sizable price to bring him in as well but he hasn’t been able to play at the level he did with Minnesota.  When he has been healthy (and that has been a struggle the last couple of seasons), he has been more of a secondary producer which isn’t great for someone with a $5.5MM price tag.  A buyout would give them a little less than $3.5MM in cap space for next season while adding $1.733MM to 2023-24’s cap but also would create another spot to fill.  Alternatively, a trade with some retention that yields less relief next season but carries no penalty for the following year is an option while they could also add a draft pick or prospect to try to get a team to take the contract in full.  None of these are desirable but carrying him on the books next season could cost them the ability to retain a more impactful player.

There are also some candidates to move on the back end.  Marcus Pettersson hasn’t lived up to his inflated contract, one that carries an AAV of just over $4MM for three more years.  Flipping him for someone that makes less money is something that can be considered.  John Marino ($4.4MM for five more years) has been in trade speculation going back to during the season and a similar idea could be done with him, especially if they’re able to bring Letang back.   It’s unlikely they can clear the full contracts but moving one of them could give them a little more financial flexibility.  Even with $23MM in cap room for the time being, the Penguins certainly are going to need all the financial flexibility they can get.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

PHR Mailbag: Detroit Red Wings Edition

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There were several questions about the Red Wings in our latest callout for questions for the PHR Mailbag.  Rather than try to condense them to fit them within a full mailbag, let’s examine them in a bit more detail in a Detroit-specific piece.  The rest of the mailbag will run on Sunday.

pawdog13: What have you heard about the Red Wings’ coaching search? Crickets everywhere!

@jamara23732: Who do you believe the Red Wings will hire as head coach?

The best way to describe Detroit’s coaching search thus far is that it’s thorough.  GM Steve Yzerman is known to be patient and he’s turning over every rock while considering both experienced and first-time options.  Barry Trotz interviewed for the opening back in May but Trotz basically interviewed with every team that has a coaching vacancy and then decided to take next season off.  David Quinn, the former Rangers head coach, has also been interviewed.  He’s someone that has a lot of experience working with younger players and with the Red Wings having a younger roster, that could be appealing.  They also interviewed Bruce Cassidy but clearly, that one isn’t happening as he’s now with Vegas.

Speculatively, I think part of their hold up is that Yzerman wants to have a conversation with Derek Lalonde, an assistant with the Lightning.  Yzerman was still with Tampa Bay when Lalonde joined them so he will have some familiarity and considering what Tampa Bay has done since then, he has only helped boost his stock since then.  Detroit might not be the only team waiting for the Stanley Cup Final to end to have a conversation with Lalonde.

As for who I think they’ll hire, I’ve covered that one in a prior mailbag but I’ll mention it here again in Jim Montgomery.  Dallas was doing well under his tutelage before his departure so it’s not as if he’s a first-time bench boss.  He also has a track record of working with younger players from his days in college.  He’s also someone that fits both types of coaching options.  He could be the long-term solution behind the bench which would be great for them but he could also be a transitional coach, one that helps elevate the stock and development of certain players but might not be the right fit in the end.  Either option would be a win for them at this stage.  In reality, your guess is as good as mine with the lack of information out there about their search but Montgomery would be my pick.

gowings2008: Any idea who the Red Wings may target in free agency? Based on the direction the team is headed, I think adding a player like Andre Burakovsky could make sense.

@jamara23732: What free agents do you see the Red Wings pursuing when free agency starts?

I don’t expect Detroit to necessarily be shopping at the top end of the market yet.  Are they ready to flip the switch and move to win-now mode?  They’re getting closer to that point but I don’t think it’ll be this summer.  That should keep them out of the bidding wars for the top players.

Looking at their depth chart, their center situation stands out.  Dylan Larkin is in place although he only has one yet left on his contract.  After that, there are a lot of question marks.  Pius Suter isn’t a true top-six option and while Michael Rasmussen has shown some improvement, he fits much better on the third line than the second.  Joe Veleno has similar upside.  Oskar Sundqvist, acquired at the trade deadline, is also a bottom-sixer.  There’s a definite need for a top-six center.

Vincent Trocheck is someone I expect them to take a serious run at.  He turns 29 next month so he should still have several good seasons ahead of him.  He’s not going to push to be a top pivot – that spot is still Larkin’s – but he’d allow Rasmussen and Veleno to slot into the last two center spots and give them a very stable group of middlemen.  Good teams need good center depth and Trocheck would give them exactly that.  If that doesn’t happen, they might inquire on Andrew Copp and Ryan Strome, similar-aged players that would give them some stability although the upside isn’t as great.  I’d be more worried about adding middlemen than wingers at this point so while Burakovsky would certainly help, he shouldn’t be their top priority either.

The left side of their back end is another sizable hole but that will be difficult to fill in free agency as the impact rearguards are righties.  I’ve mused in the past about them taking a look at someone like John Klingberg which would free them up to trade Filip Hronek for a lefty that better fits their needs.  That might be their best shot at adding an impact left-side defender, actually.  Simon Edvinsson will see some time next season but their free agent target on that side might be a veteran like Ian Cole, someone that can play on the third pairing and log some tough minutes on the penalty kill.  Keeping Marc Staal is another option.  Alexander Edler would be a tier a bit above that but that’s as good as I think they can do on the free agent front on that side of their back end.

On the trade front, if they keep Hronek and don’t add an impact righty, I could see them inquiring about Alec Martinez, a Michigan native.  Vegas still needs to clear money and since they played without him for a lot of this past season, they know they can manage without him if need be.  With two years left on his contract, he’d be an ideal bridge veteran to work with Edvinsson as well.

Johnny Z: Predict the unpredictable: What is Stevie Y’s big move this summer? Example: What LD vet does he find? Will he bolster the C position and with who? Does he get Larkin extended under $9M? What veteran goalie does he get?

The defense and center spots were covered above and I’ll lean into my Klingberg prediction as their big move with Hronek, who has two years left at an affordable $4.4MM price tag, being flipped for a left-shot defender that’s signed or under team control for at least two more years.

As for Larkin, I do think a long-term extension will get done this summer.  He stated at the end of the season that he couldn’t see himself playing elsewhere and then changed agents with the belief being that talks on a new deal will start soon.  Unless Yzerman was to low-ball his captain, something should get done.

I’m fairly confident it will be under $9MM per as well.  Larkin has never been a point-per-game player and has only come close to that mark twice.  In that sense, he’s not a true top center so he shouldn’t be expecting to be paid as such.  There are some recent comparables to work off of as well – Mika Zibanejad will get $8.5MM from the Rangers next year, Tomas Hertl is a little over $8MM from San Jose, and Sean Couturier checks in at $7.75MM.  Is Larkin’s track record better than those players?  He’d have a hard time making that case.  He’s younger so there will be an expectation of more in-prime years that should push his AAV into that range instead of being below it but I’d be quite surprised if his next price tag came in above Zibanejad’s $8.5MM.

Now, let’s look at the goaltending situation.  I don’t think Jussi Olkinuora is the intended backup although I do like that signing to see if he is indeed a late bloomer.  He’ll partner up with Sebastian Cossa in Grand Rapids and it’s his trajectory that Yzerman will need to be mindful of.  Yes, he’s a promising prospect but most goalies will need a few years before being NHL-ready.  With Alex Nedeljkovic’s deal set to expire next summer, they need someone on a multi-year deal.

This isn’t a great group of veterans to work with so I expect their primary targets to be Ville Husso and Jack Campbell.  Both players don’t have the type of clout to command a long-term contract but something in the three-year range is where they should fall.  That lines up with Cossa’s timeline in the sense that Husso or Campbell would be expiring when Cossa is ready.  At that point, they can either walk or be extended to partner up with him.  My pick would be one of those two.

If they go elsewhere, I would be looking towards Washington and one of their pending RFAs.  If they want a proven veteran, one of Ilya Samsonov or Vitek Vanecek would be on the move and both of those netminders would be candidates for the medium-term deals I’m suggesting they’ll want to give to Husso or Campbell.  They need some stability at the position and getting that should be near the top of Yzerman’s to-do list this summer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Focus: Montreal Canadiens

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Free agency is now less than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Canadiens.

Key Restricted Free Agents

G Sam Montembeault — Montembeault was forced into a breakout season in 2021-22 after injuries wreaked havoc on the Montreal crease. Claimed off waivers from the Florida Panthers at the beginning of the season, the idea was for Montembeault to serve as a third-string backup option to relieve the stress on the crease. With starter Carey Price missing most of the season, though, and backup Jake Allen battling multiple injuries throughout the year, the 25-year-old Quebec native started 30 games and made eight appearances in relief, posting an 8-18-6 record, .891 save percentage, 3.77 goals-against average, and one shutout. He struggled with consistency under his increased workload, usually being one of the biggest reasons Montreal won or lost. Despite the poor performance, though, he did pretty much what you’d expect a third-string option to do in that situation. Montembeault will almost certainly be issued a qualifying offer and retained, considering that Allen remains the only healthy netminder under contract for next season.

D Alexander Romanov — Montreal’s 38th overall selection in the 2018 draft continues to track better than expected. While the scoring hasn’t been there for Romanov just yet, he was drafted for his defensive upside, and he’s beginning to deliver. Thrust into a top-four role this season in Shea Weber’s absence, Romanov provided good defensive results, albeit in a slightly sheltered role. He’ll likely increase his point totals somewhat from his 13 points in 79 games in 2021-22 under a surely more gifted team next season, tracking to be an important complementary defender in Montreal for years to come. Depending on how confident Montreal is in his development, it wouldn’t be too surprising to see them try to lock Romanov in longer-term this offseason to ensure some lasting value.

F Rem Pitlick — One of the best waiver claims in the league this year (and one-third of Montreal’s band of Pitlicks), 25-year-old Rem finished the season with 37 points in 66 games split between the Canadiens and Minnesota Wild. Getting top-six minutes in Montreal, he managed 26 of those points in his 46 games with Montreal. Pitlick’s poor advanced defensive numbers and sky-high 23.1 shooting percentage are some red flags, though, and it’s hard to imagine Montreal giving Pitlick anything longer than two or three years to stay around as a depth scoring option.

Other RFAs: F Joël Teasdale, F Michael Pezzetta, F Nathan Schnarr, D Corey Schueneman, D Josh Brook, D Kale Clague, G Cayden Primeau

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Mathieu Perreault — While a stat-line of nine points in just 25 games doesn’t scream “keeper material,” there’s a solid case for Perreault to stick around in Montreal uniform. Injuries were the primary limiting factor in his ice time (including a scary eye ailment), and he was one of the team’s better two-way players in a bottom-six that got routinely caved in. The 34-year-old veteran of 708 NHL games could be let go in favor of giving more time to younger players in the system, though.

F Tyler Pitlick — Rem’s cousin, Tyler arrived in Montreal mid-season courtesy of the Tyler Toffoli trade in February. He played just 14 games as a Canadien, though, averaging under 10 minutes per game. While injuries and COVID made him unavailable some nights, he didn’t exactly play his way into a regular role. After scoring just five points in 39 games this season between Montreal and Calgary, it could be the end of the NHL road entirely for the 29-year-old.

Other UFAs: F Alex Belzile, F Cedric Paquette, F Jean-Sebastien Dea, F Laurent Dauphin, F Lukas Vejdemo, D Louis Belpedio, D Sami Niku, D William Lagesson, D Xavier Ouellet

Projected Salary Cap Space

Montreal currently stands with just under $2MM in cap space this offseason, but that number is likely to increase dramatically by the time free agency rolls around and into next season. Trade rumors have been swirling around many members of the Canadiens, and it’s likely that at least one if not all of Jeff Petry ($6.25MM cap hit), Josh Anderson ($5.5MM cap hit), and Mike Hoffman ($4.5MM cap hit) are dealt. There’s also the possibility that Price’s $10.5MM cap hit may land on long-term injured reserve.

The Canadiens are unlikely to be big spenders in free agency regardless of their cap situation, but they’ll be able to re-sign everyone they wish despite the seemingly tight financial situation at first.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Nashville Predators

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Free agency is now less than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Predators

Key Restricted Free Agents:

F Yakov Trenin – Don’t let his point total fool you, Trenin was a breakout player this past season for the Predators and one of the better stories of their year. The 25-year-old Russian winger entered this campaign without much expectation, his eleven points in 45 games in 2020-21 not exactly setting the stage for him to become an important member of the team. But that’s exactly what Trenin did, as he established himself as a full-time NHL-er and an embodiment of the team identity coach John Hynes wants to see out of his Predators. You would be hard-pressed to find an NHL-er that plays with more passion than Trenin, and his fit on a crash-and-bang line with Tanner Jeannot and Colton Sissons entertained fans in Nashville all year. Trenin scored 17 goals this year and added three playoff goals in the team’s brief four-game postseason run. While he had only seven assists all year, Trenin’s goal-scoring, energy, and penalty killing (he averaged 1:40 shorthanded ice time per game, which ranked fourth among Predators forwards) proved valuable for Nashville, and those are the qualities that will help him in negotiations this summer.

Trenin is an arbitration-eligible free agent, meaning he does have some leverage, although his negotiations with Nashville probably won’t get to the point where arbitration is needed. It’s tough to find a perfect contract comparable for Trenin because what he brings to the table is so unique, especially within the context of the Predators and the team identity they want to have. A short or medium-term deal at around a $2MM-3MM AAV would make sense, as Trenin may not want to lock himself into a deal that takes him into his thirties while he has under 150 games of NHL experience.

F Luke Kunin – Kunin ranked eighth amongst Predators forwards in time-on-ice per game, and was fifth when excluding the aforementioned Trenin-Sissons-Jeannot line, a line that stuck together and played a very specific role for most of the season. So Kunin, a 2016 first-round pick, did not spend 2021-22 lacking the opportunity to be a difference-maker and put together a productive campaign. What he lacked was the ability to take advantage of that opportunity and fulfill the promise that saw him get drafted between Charlie McAvoy and Jakob Chychrun. Kunin had only 22 points in his full 82-game season this year, and that’s despite offensive resurgences from forwards across the Predators’ top-six, players like Matt Duchene, Ryan Johansen, and Mikael Granlund, the guys Kunin frequently shared the ice with. So that leaves him in a curious position entering the offseason, where he is an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent. This was a crucially important season for Kunin, who will turn 25 next year. His inability to seize the opportunities he’s been given has raised questions over whether his future is in Nashville long-term. Kunin comes with a $2.3MM qualifying offer, which isn’t a huge amount but also not an insignificant number. While it’s possible that the Predators and Kunin enter next season together, it would not be a surprise if he was headed elsewhere this summer.

F Cody Glass – While Kunin represents a first-round reclamation project of sorts that hasn’t gone well for the Predators, Glass is an example of a first-round reclamation project that has shown promise. Glass was acquired from the Vegas Golden Knights last summer in exchange for Nolan Patrick, who Nashville was able to send to Vegas thanks to the Ryan Ellis deal with the Philadelphia Flyers. Glass, 23, was the sixth-overall pick in 2017 and had been a lethal junior scorer, but his professional career had been derailed by injuries and inconsistency. The Predators likely believed that a change of scenery was what Glass needed, and they may have been right. Glass has thrived since the trade. He led the AHL Milwaukee Admirals in scoring with 62 points in 66 games and even earned a brief NHL call-up. A short, cheap extension for Glass makes the most sense for this season, as the Predators will definitely want to see if he can finally stick in the NHL full-time before beginning to think about any possibility of a long-term deal.

Other RFA’s: F Matt Luff, F Jimmy Huntington, F Thomas Novak, F Cole Smith, D David Farrance, G Devin Cooley

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Filip Forsberg – Right now, it seems as though the Predators’ offseason is entirely centered around what happens with Forsberg and his next contract, and GM David Poile seemed to acknowledge as much in his comments today. Forsberg is among the Predators’ most important players. A highly-skilled offensive dynamo, Forsberg had a career year this past season, scoring 84 points in 69 games. He’s the Predators’ all-time leading goal-scorer and means so much to the organization both on and off the ice. But a deal has yet to be completed, and the team and player are reportedly far apart in their negotiations, paving the way for a departure. The Predators pay their captain, Roman Josi, just over $9MM AAV on his long-term deal. It’s definitely possible that the Predators simply do not want anyone on their books with a higher cap hit than Josi, and it’s also definitely possible that Forsberg believes he can earn a bigger contract than that on the open market. Fellow play-driving left winger Artemi Panarin got over $11MM AAV to sign with the New York Rangers, so perhaps Forsberg is eyeing a similar mega-deal. From the Predators’ perspective, it will be extremely hard to find a player who can replace Forsberg at a cost that won’t be significant in either dollars or assets, so in order to keep their core intact, they might need to pay more for Forsberg than they’d like to. This is a high-stakes, high-pressure situation, and one that will have a major ripple effect on the entire Predators franchise, regardless of the outcome. 

D Matt Benning – Benning, the nephew of former Vancouver Canucks GM Jim Benning, quietly had a decent season in 2021-22. His offense isn’t why he’s in the NHL, and he had only 11 points in 65 games, but when he got into the lineup he provided steady, responsible play at a reasonable price. Benning ranked third among Predators defensemen in shorthanded ice time per game and showed versatility in where he could be played within the lineup. With Mattias Ekholm and Josi’s pairings set in stone for most of the year, Benning managed a rotating cast of partners on the team’s bottom pairing and the Predators acquired Jeremy Lauzon from the Kraken in part to ease his defensive burden. Benning cost $1MM against the cap last year and could likely be had on a similar deal for next season.

Other UFA’s: F Nick Cousins, D Ben Harpur, G David Rittich, F Brayden Burke, F Rocco Grimaldi, F Kole Sherwood, D Alex Biega, D Jeremy Davies

Projected Cap Space:

The Predators are projected to have just above $21MM in open cap space this summer, a healthy amount for a playoff team with as many veterans as the Predators have. A new extension for Forsberg will take a chunk of that cap space, and a possible extension for Trenin is of note as well. But with players such as Josi and Juuse Saros, two players who are among the best in the NHL at their position, locked into contracts and other veteran difference-makers such as Duchene, Johansen, and Granlund also under contract for the foreseeable future, the Predators to have room to maneuver in this offseason’s market.

Obviously, any plan they have will start with Forsberg, but if he does end up walking, the Predators will have a stockpile of cap space in a flat-cap league where having space is at its most important. They still have extensions for Jeannot and Phillip Tomasino on the horizon, so they can’t be reckless. But even with those future negotiations in mind, Predators have a world of possibilities open to them this summer. So while the fate of the Predators’ most skilled forward is uncertain, the ability of Poile and the Predators to be a major player this offseason is not.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Toronto Maple Leafs

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With the offseason in full swing aside from the two teams in the Stanley Cup Final, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Another year, another first-round exit for the Maple Leafs, who were kicked out of the postseason by the defending champs. Sure, you could argue that they were closer to defeating the Lightning than either of the other two teams in the east that had the unfortunate task of trying to snap Tampa Bay’s streak but it doesn’t really matter at this point. The simple fact is that Toronto hasn’t won a playoff series in nearly two decades and all efforts this summer will be made to change that.

Figure Out The Goaltending

Right now, the Maple Leafs have three goaltenders under contract for next season. Petr Mrazek, Erik Kallgren, and Joseph Woll. That’s not exactly what someone would call championship depth in net. Mrazek is signed for two more years at $3.8MM and did not impress in his first go-round with the team, leading some to believe they’ll find a way to get rid of his contract this summer.

But the big question mark is Jack Campbell, who did an admirable job during his relatively short time in Toronto but may have priced himself out of their range. If the 30-year-old is looking to cash in on his first real chance at a lucrative multi-year contract, it’s hard to see how it will be with the Maple Leafs, unless they can find a way to clear up some other room. Even if they did move Mrazek’s money out and bring back Campbell, is the Kallgren-Woll duo enough depth behind him?

Add Youth To The Bottom-Six

With Ilya Mikheyev and Colin Blackwell both unrestricted free agents, Pierre Engvall and Ondrej Kase restricted free agents (who are both trade or even potentially non-tender candidates, because of the threat of arbitration), and Jason Spezza now in the front office, it could be a very different look at the bottom of the Maple Leafs’ lineup next season.

Deciding how many spots the team will leave open for competition among the younger players in the organization is a huge decision and one that could drastically backfire if they aren’t able to make the jump to the NHL full-time. Nick Robertson (20), Alex Steeves (22), Curtis Douglas (22), Nick Abruzzese (23), Pontus Holmberg (23), Joey Anderson (24), and others are potential options there, though they each come with very different skillsets.

With the cap squeeze coming in other areas, the team desperately needs some of these entry-level contracts (or minimum deals in Anderson’s case) to start paying off upfront.

Solve The Sandin Problem

When the Maple Leafs re-signed Mark Giordano to a hometown discount quickly after the season ended, the question immediately emerged: where is Rasmus Sandin going to play? The team now has Giordano, Morgan Rielly, and Jake Muzzin all entrenched on the left, while Sandin has struggled in his short time trying to play his off-side.

The 22-year-old is a restricted free agent for the first time and will need a new contract, but also some clarity on where exactly he fits into the picture for next season. Many fans have suggested a Muzzin trade to clear room for the younger Sandin but the veteran holds a full no-trade clause until next summer, so there would be complications even if the team did decide they wanted to move on–which isn’t clear anyway.

Given that they also have question marks on the right side with Justin Holl’s up-and-down season and Timothy Liljegren’s inexperience, how the Maple Leafs’ defense pairings shake out is a complete unknown at this point.

Find A Second-Line Left Winger

It may seem like a non-issue for a team that had no trouble scoring goals this season but the second-line duo of John Tavares and William Nylander often struggled to find chemistry with a rotating cast of left-wingers (and each other at times). With Mikheyev, perhaps the most natural fit there, likely moving on due to his open market price tag–Chris Johnston of TSN noted that the Russian UFA is looking for somewhere between $4-5MM on a per-year basis–it’s hard to see who will step into that void from the internal options.

Alexander Kerfoot has at times found success in the top-six but is really more of a third-line option, while a young skilled player like Robertson may not yet be ready. A free agent signing could be in the cards if the team can find some extra cash.

One thing that may play into the decision, however, is the emergence and development of prospect Matthew Knies. The second-rounder exploded this season with the University of Minnesota and played at the Olympics for Team USA. Knies is headed back to school for 2022-23 but could be an option for the Maple Leafs’ top-six as early as next spring, meaning any multi-year free agent move could create a logjam moving forward.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Offseason Checklist: Boston Bruins

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With the offseason in full swing aside from the two teams in the Stanley Cup Final, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Bruins.

It wasn’t a particularly eventful season for Boston who once again was one of the stronger teams in the Atlantic Division and while they wound up in a Wild Card spot, they were safely in a playoff spot early on.  However, they weren’t able to get past Carolina in the first round and since then, it has been a busy few weeks for the Bruins.  GM Don Sweeney will have a lot of work to do over the coming weeks, assuming a new contract gets worked out between now and then.

Hire A New Coach

It was a move that came as a surprise to some but Sweeney and team president Cam Neely opted to make a change behind the bench, dismissing Bruce Cassidy earlier this month.  This, despite the team going 245-108-46 under his watch during the regular season.  The playoff success hasn’t been there, however, with the team playing a game below .500 which likely played a significant role in the decision to make a change.  Cassidy wasn’t out of a job for long and now has a long-term deal to coach in Vegas.

This feels like a crossroads situation for the Bruins and, for the time being, at least, Boston isn’t being linked to many of the veterans that have been around the block with quite a few teams over the years.  Their current crop of known candidates consists primarily of first-time options (Seattle assistant Jay Leach, Toronto assistant Spencer Carbery, and Pittsburgh assistant Mike Vellucci) or one-time NHL bench bosses (David Quinn, St. Louis assistant Jim Montgomery, and Boston assistant Joe Sacco).

Turning to that type of coach could signal an openness to try a different path and perhaps even take a short-term step back as none of these options carry the type of win-now expectations that a ‘recycled’ veteran often does.  At any rate, Boston will want to have their new bench boss in place by the start of free agency on July 13th as the new coach will want to have some say in their personnel moves.

Re-Sign Or Replace Bergeron

Patrice Bergeron has been a fixture down the middle for Boston for the last 18 years.  He’s a five-time Selke Trophy winner and sits 18 points shy of the 1,000-point mark for his career.  The 36-year-old hasn’t shown signs of slowing down and is consistently one of their leading scorers.  But Bergeron is set to become an unrestricted free agent next month and there is some uncertainty about his future as a result.  This isn’t a case of him threatening to test the market and go elsewhere – he has already ruled that out – but rather a case of him deciding whether or not to hang up his skates and call it a career.

That would certainly be a devastating blow for the Bruins as they don’t have anyone in the system to replace him.  If Bergeron does retire, Boston will need to go hard after the notable middlemen in free agency highlighted by Nazem Kadri while Vincent Trocheck will also generate plenty of interest.  If Evgeni Malkin makes it to the open market, they could check in on him as well with a short-term offer.  The other route is to try to trade for an impact middleman but they don’t have their first-rounder this year, their next two second-rounders after next month’s draft, while their prospect pool isn’t the strongest.  That will make it difficult to trade for an impact center if it comes to it.

Adding one will certainly be a necessity if Bergeron retires as they don’t have anyone else that’s even an ideal second-line center let alone a top liner.  Erik Haula and Charlie Coyle have been hit or miss in key offensive roles in their careers and while they are quality secondary players, they aren’t ideal fits on the top trio.  With that in mind, if Bergeron returns, they could still use an impact center behind him.

Forecasting Bergeron’s contract if he chooses to come back is a difficult one since he is limiting his options to only the Bruins; it’s not implausible to think he’d sign a team-friendly contract to give them some extra cap flexibility.  As it stands, they have just over $2MM in cap space which is hardly enough to do much of anything with.  If Bergeron was to sign a one-year deal, he’d be eligible for incentives which would give them the ability to roll those onto the 2023-24 cap and buy themselves a bit of wiggle room for next season.

Determine Pastrnak’s Future

David Pastrnak has certainly provided plenty of value for a late first-round pick back in 2014.  Over his eight-year career, he is just shy of averaging a point per game and has been no lower than third in team scoring over the past six seasons.  Basically, he has been a consistent fixture on Boston’s top line while doing so at a team-friendly price as the 26-year-old has been under contract at $6.67MM for the last five years and is signed for the 2022-23 season at that price as well.

Obviously, Boston’s preference will be to sign Pastrnak to a contract extension as soon as he’s eligible once the new league year begins on July 13th.  It’s going to take a sizable financial commitment to do so and it’s fair to say his camp will be keeping a close tab on Johnny Gaudreau and Filip Forsberg this summer with Pastrnak’s price tag likely to fall somewhere between what those two get.  Something in the $9MM range is certainly doable.

However, there has been some speculation that Pastrnak may not be willing to sign an early extension which will certainly complicate things for Sweeney.  While Boston would undoubtedly command a significant return in a trade for him, doing so would also definitively close their window of contention; if Bergeron was to return, they could plausibly give that core one more chance so that has to be taken into consideration.  While it’s possible that they go into next season without a new deal in place, that does have its risks.  Accordingly, the Bruins will want to have a good sense of what Pastrnak’s intentions are before the start of free agency, so this will need to be near the top of Sweeney’s priority list.

Bring In Defensive Depth

On the surface, the Bruins have some decent defensive depth and will have Jakub Zboril healthy after he missed most of the season due to an injury.  With eight defensemen on one-way deals, it would seem like they wouldn’t need any more help.

However, Matt Grzelcyk is out until at least November and Charlie McAvoy is out until at least December due to offseason shoulder surgeries.  Mike Reilly also underwent offseason surgery but should be ready for training camp.

While Boston’s depth is decent, they’re going to need some extra bodies to get through the first couple of months of the season.  Jack Ahcan could be an option after getting into six games this year but they might want someone with more experience.  Accordingly, Sweeney may have his eyes on some veteran depth players for training camp PTOs or two-way contracts with an intention of having them play in Providence once everyone is healthy.  With the potential for an NHL roster spot or two to start the season, that could be appealing to those players as they consider their options in free agency next month.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: New Jersey Devils

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Free agency is now less than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Devils.

Key Restricted Free Agents:

F Jesper Bratt – The rumors surrounding Bratt have already started swirling even during the Stanley Cup Finals, with conflicting reports on the forward coming from ESPN’s Kevin Weekes, who says the two sides haven’t begun talking and other teams are interested, and Ryan Novozinsky of the Star-Ledger, who confirmed with both Bratt’s agent, Joakim Persson and with the Devils, that the two sides had been talking. Whether Bratt stays in New Jersey, is traded, or even encounters an offer-sheet scenario, one thing is for sure: he’s going to get a hefty raise. A sixth-round pick in 2016, Bratt went from an unheralded prospect, to an NHLer, to a player who proved he could carry a line, to this year, where he proved he could carry an offense. The 23-year-old set career-highs with 26 goals, 47 assists, 73 points, in 76 games, those 73 points good enough to lead a Devils team that only had 49 games of Jack Hughes this season. Now at the conclusion of a two-year contract that carried an AAV of $2.75MM, Bratt could very likely see his salary double, if not more. New Jersey finds itself with an impeccable amount of salary cap space moving forward, so meeting Bratt’s asking price shouldn’t be an issue, but negotiating term and finding the proper overall value could hold the negotiation up.

F Miles Wood – The speedy winger missed the majority of this past season following a hip injury and surgery in the preseason. He would return to the lineup in late March, getting into three games before ultimately being shutdown for the remainder of the season. Wood has been a steady presence in the Devils lineup for the past few years, acting as the team’s primary agitator while also using his speed to create some offense too. With the Devils roster turnover as they try to put a close to their rebuild, it’s possible they could let the forward walk, but given their desire to add some “sandpaper” in to the lineup, simply keeping a familiar face in Wood who has the ability to play up and down the lineup would make sense without breaking the bank. New Jersey would also likely have control in the negotiations, considering Wood’s injury history and his status as a soon-to-be 27-year-old RFA, but it is worth noting that Wood is arbitration eligible this summer. Wood recently concluded a four-year, $11MM deal.

F Pavel Zacha – The first major piece of the Devils rebuild, it’s safe to say Zacha has not lived up to the expectations set for him when New Jersey drafted him sixth-overall in 2015. Zacha appeared to turn a corner in what could be described as a breakout 2020-21 season, where he totaled 35 points in 50 games, then a career-high. The forward would eclipse that career-high with 36 this year, but that was seen as a setback, considering he played in 70 games. On the heels of a three-year, $6.75MM contract and arbitration eligible, New Jersey could move on from Zacha, opting to give some of their prospects a chance at more regular ice-time, but given the flashes of talent he’s shown over the past two seasons along with a predictably reasonable price, it’s also quite likely the Devils will give Zacha another year in the Garden State.

F Jesper Boqvist, F Tyce Thompson, F Fabian Zetterlund

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

D P.K. Subban – The former Norris Trophy winner is coming off an eight-year, $72MM contract which saw him traded not once, but twice, finally landing in New Jersey. Although not the same player he once was, Subban’s name still holds weight as an exciting player on the ice with big hits and shots, and off the ice as a charismatic and community-driven player, evidenced by his 2022 King Clancy Award. Subban’s next contract won’t see him come too close to his previous $9MM AAV, however the 33-year-old should be able to find himself a role well-suited for him at a reasonable rate. Even with his recent regression, the ball may be largely in Subban’s court with contenders close to the salary cap looking to give him a tailored role as a powerplay specialist at a lesser rate or a team with more payroll flexibility and more minutes to offer looking for an exciting name and a dynamic leader. A return to New Jersey isn’t out of the picture, but the Devils do have a bevy of young talent on defense they will try to work into regular roles at the NHL level in the near future.

F Chase De Leo, F Brian Flynn, F Frederik Gauthier, F Mason Geertsen, F A.J. Greer, F Jimmy Vesey, D Colton White, G Jon Gillies, G Andrew Hammond

Projected Cap Space:

At a time when many NHL teams are struggling to stay cap-compliant, the Devils are able to breathe easy, with just over $25.3MM in available cap space this offseason. That number actually feels a bit restrictive when you consider the $56.1MM the team is currently projected to have after the 2022-23 season. Perhaps the best part of all of this for New Jersey, is this factors in Dougie Hamilton’s $9MM cap hit, Hughes’ $8MM cap hit, and Nico Hischier’s $7.25MM cap hit.

The main financial commitment the Devils have to make this offseason is Bratt, who could approach the $7MM AAV threshold. After Bratt, the team could bring back Zacha, Wood, and Subban, and still have plenty of room with which to work. The organization will likely use that remaining cap to address their goaltending issues, the team currently expected to ice Mackenzie Blackwood and Jonathan Bernier next season, both of whom dealt with significant injury issues in 2021-22, and perhaps one of the several dynamic forwards available on this year’s trade and free agency markets. Even with their cap freedom, the Devils will need to take care, with a significant number of players hitting free agency next summer, including RFAs Yegor Sharangovich, Ty Smith, Jonas Siegenthaler and UFAs Tomas Tatar, Andreas Johnsson, Ryan Graves, and Damon Severson, amongst others.

Offseason Checklist: Washington Capitals

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With the offseason in full swing aside from the two teams in the Stanley Cup Final, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Capitals.

It was a tough season on the injury front for Washington with three of their top forwards missing at least 35 games.  Despite that, the Capitals remained a top-ten offensive team and were able to get to the playoffs although they were ousted in the first round by Florida.  With an aging core, GM Brian MacLellan will have some work to do to keep this group in the playoff hunt as a rebuild isn’t likely in the cards.

Add Short-Term Offensive Talent

The recent news that Nicklas Backstrom has undergone hip resurfacing surgery should open up some LTIR flexibility for Washington.  While no firm timetable for a return has been announced, of the handful of players who have had the surgery, the quickest recovery was after an entire season.  Accordingly, MacLellan should be comfortable using a good chunk of his $9.2MM AAV on a replacement.  But as this hasn’t been termed a career-ending procedure (though it put an end to Ryan Kesler’s career), the Capitals will be limited in terms of what they can do to replace him.

Since the potential exists for Backstrom to play down the road, Washington should be limiting themselves to looking to either acquire a player on an expiring contract or signing a free agent to a one-year deal.  In doing so, they’ll be able to free up the cap space to integrate Backstrom back for 2023-24 without any issue and if he can’t return, then they’ll have the flexibility to spend next summer.

Of course, Backstrom’s injury leaves a big hole down the middle and let’s face it, there aren’t a lot of impact centers available on one-year contracts so the Capitals may need to get creative here.  Lars Eller can play in the top six in a pinch but isn’t an ideal fit there for a long stretch, nor is Nic Dowd.  T.J. Oshie has shifted down the middle to cover for short-term injuries but asking him to do that for a full season would be tough and it’s not as if he’s consistently healthy either.  Spending at least part of Backstrom’s money on help at center will be a must for MacLellan.

You might have noticed I haven’t mentioned Tom Wilson here who will be on LTIR as well to start the year.  However, since he’s due back a couple of months into the season, the Capitals can’t really do much of anything to replace him outside of recalls although they’ll be able to carry a max-sized roster at least.

Pick A Goalie; Deal A Goalie

When Seattle took Vitek Vanecek in expansion, it looked as if Washington’s decision of who to run with between the pipes had been finalized and that they’d run with Ilya Samsonov moving forward.  But a week later, the Capitals reacquired Vanecek and the questions returned.  After running that tandem for all of this past season, the questions still remain.

Vanecek’s campaign was practically identical to his rookie year (2.67 GAA, .908 SV% compared to 2.69 and .908, respectively) but his track record is still limited to just 79 games in the regular season.  While those numbers are decent, they’re also not starter-level either.  Meanwhile, Samsonov saw his numbers get worse for the second straight year (3.02 GAA, .896 SV%, both worse than the league average).  That said, Samsonov was a highly-touted first-round pick who has been perceived to have the higher upside of the two even though the results haven’t been there so far.

While it’s possible that the Capitals could opt to bring both goalies back (both are restricted free agents with arbitration rights as well), it feels like the time is right for a chance.  Washington was believed to be interested in Marc-Andre Fleury at the trade deadline although making a deal and remaining cap-compliant was next to impossible.  But if they were looking for a veteran then and have since suffered another quick playoff exit, it stands to reason they’ll be looking for a veteran upgrade again.  If that’s the case, one of Samsonov or Vanecek has to go.

The trade market for goalies rarely yields a significant return although the fact that both are young (Vanecek is 26, Samsonov 25) will help.  This is something that they may want to do sooner than later as well.  While it’s possible they could wait to see how free agency shakes out to see if there’s a vulnerable team or two, the risk is that if everyone finds alternative options between the pipes, the Capitals could be stuck carrying three goalies into training camp.  If they want to avoid that, the choice of who to keep and who to trade will need to be made within the next few weeks before the start of free agency on July 13th.

Round Out The Back End

With Justin Schultz, Matt Irwin, and Michal Kempny all set to hit free agency this summer, there are a couple of slots to fill at the back of Washington’s back end.  The emergence of Martin Fehervary helps in that they don’t necessarily have to look for someone that can fill a spot in the top four although it would be a nice luxury if they opt to reallocate some of Backstrom’s money to the blueline.

Assuming none of those three free agents return, there will be a couple of different roles to try to fill.  Schultz took a regular turn on the second power play unit and the Capitals don’t have a lot of players that can run the point aside from their top two.  Accordingly, one of their two targets to fill out their defense corps should be someone that can play in that role.  The other role is Irwin’s, one that he did a good job with.  While he didn’t log a lot of special teams time, he was able to play on both sides and that type of flexibility is something that head coach Peter Laviolette certainly covets.

It wouldn’t hurt if at least one of those spots was filled by someone on a multi-year deal either.  The list of Washington’s NHL rearguards that are signed beyond 2022-23 starts and ends with John Carlson.  It wouldn’t be ideal to be in a situation where the Capitals are trying to rebuild half of their back end or more a year from now so if they can get a bit of stability with their depth options, it would be helpful.

Orlov Extension Talks

To that end, extension talks for Dmitry Orlov should be high on MacLellan’s priority list.  The soon-to-be 31-year-old is actually coming off a career season offensively with 12 goals and 35 points but overall, has been quite consistent with his offensive production, averaging between 0.35 and 0.46 points per game over the last seven seasons.  It’s pretty safe to pencil him near that rate for a little while longer yet.  Orlov has seen his ice time dip a little bit the last couple of seasons but he was just under 21 minutes in 2021-22.  Again, it’s pretty safe to pencil him in around the 20-minute mark for a few more years.

That helps set a ballpark price for what an extension should look like.  Orlov is a number two defender who, in an ideal world, would drop down a peg over the next few seasons as he gets older.  For that type of role at his age, Orlov should be in line for a raise on his current $5.1MM AAV but not a substantial one.  While the total AAV will likely depend on the length of the contract (do they work out, say, a six-year deal with the salary in the final season being a little lower to bring the cap hit down?), it should check in somewhere near the $6MM mark.  If Washington is comfortable around that range, they should be trying to work something out soon after he’s eligible for an extension in mid-July and ensure that a second key cog of their back end will be around for a while.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

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