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Free Agent Focus: Calgary Flames

at CDT | by 6 Comments

Free agency is now less than a week away and teams are looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Calgary Flames.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Matthew Tkachuk – While the contract negotiations between the Flames and Gaudreau have soaked up most of the headlines, the team’s upcoming negotiations with Matthew Tkachuk are of equal (if not greater) importance. Tkachuk is a 24-year-old player coming off a 104-point season. He’s a big, mean power forward who can score at an elite level. Those players are tough to find and Tkachuk is a unique player when you look at the landscape of superstar wingers across the NHL. If the Flames are serious about wanting to compete for many years moving forward, retaining Tkachuk on a long-term contract is something they simply have to do. But it’s not entirely up to them. Tkachuk is getting precariously close to hitting unrestricted free agency, and he could simply walk himself there by taking his $9MM qualifying offer and then hitting the market next summer. With a $9MM qualifying offer in his hands, that could potentially be seen as the floor for any long-term extension the Flames offer Tkachuk. With a trip to unrestricted free agency only a year away, it wouldn’t be surprising if Tkachuk hit double digits on the average annual value of a long-term deal in Calgary.

F Andrew Mangiapane – After two consecutive seasons as a full-time NHL-er, it looked as though Mangiapane’s long-term NHL projection was quite clear. He had scored 32 points in both years, and his goal totals were consistent as well, with 17 in 2020-21 and 18 in 2021-22. Mangiapane looked like a solid, high-energy middle-six winger with some scoring touch. This year, though, Mangiapane reached new heights in offensive production, finishing the year with 35 goals and 55 points. Mangiapane also offers a two-way game as well, and he averaged 1:17 time-on-ice per game on the Flames’ penalty kill, a kill that ranked sixth in the NHL. While some might point to Mangiapane’s 18.9% shooting percentage as an indication that his goal-scoring was a fluke, Mangiapane actually had a higher shooting percentage in 2020-21 and has been able to sustain a shooting percentage above 15% in each of his three seasons as a productive NHL regular. The larger concern with Mangiapane’s goal-scoring might be how streaky it was, as Mangiapane burst out the gates at the start of the regular season only to slow down as the year wore on. Still, even with that concern, Mangiapane has lined himself up for a nice contract extension. Whether that extension comes from the Flames remains to be seen, as his 35-goal performance may have priced him out of a Flames team that’s currently attempting to sign two other wingers to mega-extensions in Tkachuk and Gaudreau.

D Oliver Kylington – There was a time when Flames defenseman Oliver Kylington was seen as a bit of a “bust.” The Stockholm native had struggled to make any mark at the NHL level in his limited action in 2018-19 and 2019-20, and frequently played with the kind of reckless abandon that did not endear himself to his coaches. Under Darryl Sutter, though, Kylington’s game has become more polished, and Kylington has learned how to better leverage his tools to have success in an NHL that harshly punishes defensive mistakes. He finished with 31 points in 73 games in 2021-22 and was a top-four defenseman on a strong Flames team, averaging over 18 minutes of ice time per game. Kylington’s transitional game fits what’s expected of modern NHL defensemen, and his level of offensive production despite ranking outside the top ten among Flames skaters in power-play time-on-ice is impressive. A short-term deal could be wise if the Flames wish to keep his price tag low to maximize their current competitive window, although a long-term deal could be better if the Flames believe Kylington will continue his upward trajectory.

Other RFA’s: F Matthew Phillips, F Martin Pospisil, F Adam Ruzicka, F Eetu Tuulola, D Johannes Kinnvall, D Colton Poolman, G Tyler Parsons

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Johnny Gaudreau – The Flames believe they can compete for a Stanley Cup next year and for many years after that. It’s hard to disagree with their assessment when one considers their incredibly successful regular season, but that forecast may need to change depending on where Johnny Gaudreau is playing next season. Gaudreau had the best season of his career in 2021-22, scoring 40 goals and 115 points en route to the second fourth-place Hart Trophy finish of his career. Gaudreau proved that he was among the league’s best play-driving wingers and helped dissuade those who were down on his game after a difficult prior two seasons. Gaudreau also had a productive playoff run, scoring 14 points in 12 games, including a Game Seven overtime winner, helping counter critics who claimed Gaudreau disappeared when it mattered most. GM Brad Treliving has said he would move “heaven and earth” to retain Gaudreau, and it’s easy to see why. With his level of production, Gaudreau has every right to expect a double-digit AAV from any interested suitors, and while a contract at that value may not be the best in its final few years, that’s simply the cost of doing business in free agency and the reality is Gaudreau is worth every penny at this moment.

D Nikita Zadorov – Nikita Zadorov came to Calgary without much fanfare. The Flames were his third team in as many years, and the throwback, extremely physical style of game he plays is one that polarizes many fans. What didn’t polarize fans as much, though, was the success he had on the Flames’ third pairing next to fellow stay-at-home defenseman Erik Gudbranson. The six-foot-six Moscow native gave out some major hits and helped make the team’s third pairing one to be feared. While Zadorov plays a rugged, physical style, his game is not notably effective defensively and he was not a major factor on the Flames’ penalty kill. That’s a curious bit of information, as one would expect a defenseman with Zadorov’s profile to be a defensive specialist and penalty kill anchor. But that simply wasn’t the role Zadorov played, though, and that has to factor into his market value. If he’s a hit-first player but not a shutdown player, that could seriously cut into how he’s valued by teams. Zadorov earned $3.75MM in 2021-22 and could fetch a raise on the open market if a team does believe he can be a shutdown defenseman, not just a human wrecking ball.

Other UFA’s:  F Calle Jarnkrok, F Ryan Carpenter, F Trevor Lewis, F Brett Ritchie, D Michael Stone, D Erik Gudbranson, F Byron Froese, F Glenn Gawdin, F Justin Kirkland, F Luke Philp, D Nick DeSimone, D Kevin Gravel, D Andy Welinski

Projected Cap Space

This is where things get a bit dicey for Calgary. The team is projected to have nearly $27MM in cap space, but that gets cut down quickly if Gaudreau and Tkachuk both sign extensions worth $9MM or more. The team also has Kylington and Mangiapane’s extensions to consider, as well as an Elias Lindholm extension that will need to get done after the next two seasons. The point being made here is that the Flames have an abundance of talented players, and will need to effectively manage their cap in order to retain them all and preserve the necessary room to acquire outside improvements to their roster. Sean Monahan’s $6.375MM cap hit looms on long-term injured reserve, and the team could look to send Monahan to another team so they’re able to accumulate cap space over the course of next season. It’ll be a tricky few months for the Flames, but if Treliving can play his cards correctly he’ll have laid the foundation for a contender in Calgary for years to come.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Carolina Hurricanes

at CDT | by 7 Comments

Free agency is now less than a week away and teams are looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Carolina Hurricanes. 

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Martin Necas –Just one year ago, Necas looked like he would soon become one of the Hurricanes’ most important forwards. While that still might get there, his 2021-22 season was a step back. After scoring at a 63-point pace last season, many were expecting Necas to fulfill the promise that got him drafted twelfth-overall at the 2017 draft and become a true top-six forward. But for a variety of reasons, that didn’t happen in 2021-22, and Necas had a fine season, with 40 points in 72 games, but certainly not the clear-cut step forward many were expecting. The emergence of Seth Jarvis cut into Necas’ offensive opportunities, and Necas’ inconsistent nightly effort left many fans frustrated. TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reported that the Hurricanes may be tempted to trade Necas if they can get an offer for a young defenseman in return, although he also reported that the team is not actively looking to trade him, As a restricted free agent, Necas is likely in bridge deal territory and could get a deal around $3MM-$4MM, if not a bit more. While the Hurricanes did pull the trigger on a long-term extension for Jesperi Kotkaniemi before he had even finished his first season with the team, it doesn’t seem like they’ll go the same route with Necas.

D Ethan Bear – Bear is in a similar situation to Necas. We previously covered how Bear has been given permission from the Hurricanes to speak to other teams about other opportunities, and he too could be on the move this offseason, even though the Hurricanes want to re-sign him. Bear, 25, has seen his usage decline since he averaged nearly 22 minutes of ice time per night as a rookie with the Edmonton Oilers, and he was a healthy scratch for the entirety of the Hurricanes’ run to the second round of the playoffs this year. Bear wants to play, as any player does, and now has the opportunity to look for a team more willing to give him a consistent nightly role. A short-term bridge around his current $2MM cap hit, with maybe a small raise, makes the most sense here.

Other RFA’s: F Steven Lorentz, F David Cotton, F Stelio Mattheos, D Joey Keane, D Maxime Lajoie, D Tarmo Reunanen, D Jesper Sellgren, G Jack LaFontaine, G Beck Warm

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Vincent Trocheck – In April, we focused on Trocheck’s upcoming free agency situation in more depth. Not much has changed since then, though his productive playoff run (10 points in 14 games) should help his previously thin playoff resume. Trocheck is an established two-way pivot who is generally regarded as a solid second-line center. He can typically be relied on to produce around 50 points of offense, with the potential to hit even higher numbers in the right circumstances, as he did in 2020-21 with 43 points in 47 games and in 2017-18 when he had a career-high 75 points. Trocheck ranked third among Hurricanes forwards in shorthanded average time-on-ice per game with 1:46 and helped the Hurricanes to a top-ranked penalty kill finish in 2021-22 with an 88% success rate and a third-place finish in 2020-21 with an 85.2% success rate. Trocheck is also elite at the dot, and he won 54.6% of his faceoffs this past season. Trocheck’s defensive game earned him a third-place Selke Trophy vote, and he’s the sort of productive center who plays a 200-foot game that NHL GM’s are tripping over each other to acquire. Trocheck could earn a major contract this summer, with the potential to earn a similar deal to the seven-year, $7.14MM AAV deal Kevin Hayes got from the Philadelphia Flyers if there is a particularly interested suitor.

F Nino Niederreiter – In June, we took a look at Nino Niederreiter’s upcoming free agency in more depth. Niederreiter, 29, is a productive winger who can score around 20 goals and 50 points in most years, although he has had some less productive seasons. Niederreiter is a winger who belongs on an offensive line and can help support other skilled players in making and finishing plays. He’s not going to drive his own line or overwhelm anyone with his speed, skills, or physicality, but he’s the sort of productive offensive winger that can reliably staff any second line in the NHL. it’s unlikely that Niederreiter gets a raise from the $5.25MM he earned this season, and it’s actually far more likely that his next contract comes in below that number when you consider the flat-cap world NHL clubs are operating in.

F Max Domi – Domi has been a bit of an enigma so far in his NHL career, as he’s had years where he’s a highly productive fan-favorite top-six staple, and he’s also had seasons where he’s underperformed, butted heads with coaches, and struggled to make a positive impact on the ice. The true reality of Domi’s game and the value he brings to an NHL team likely lies somewhere in the middle, and his time in Carolina provides a blueprint of what teams can reasonably expect from Domi moving forward. The 27-year-old scored seven points in 19 regular-season games and six points in 14 playoff games, and became the Hurricanes’ Game Seven hero with two important goals in the team’s victory over the Boston Bruins. Domi brings real energy and offensive skill to a lineup, but he struggles to read the ice and effectively utilize his teammates. So while his offensive talent is undeniable (his 72 points on an otherwise offensively mediocre Montreal Canadiens team is proof of that) his vision is the largest factor that keeps him from being a consistent top-six force. If a team is reasonable with its expectations, they could get a solid middle-six scoring winger at a price that’s not likely going to be exorbitant.

Other UFA’s: F Derek Stepan, D Ian Cole, D Brendan Smith, F Josh Leivo, F Sam Miletic, F Stefan Noesen, F Andrew Poturalski, F Spencer Smallman, F C.J. Smith, D Josh Jacobs, G Alex Lyon

Projected Cap Space

As one would expect for a team with multiple established NHL-ers whose contracts have expired, the Hurricanes are not without room to maneuver under the salary cap this summer. CapFriendly projects them to have over $19MM in space to work with, although that projection is with defenseman Jake Gardiner still placed on long-term injured reserve. Gardiner is now healthy, ineligible for LTIR, and ready to play. If Carolina was the absolute most possible cap space to work with for Wednesday, they’ll have to move Gardiner and his $4.05MM cap hit.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Chicago Blackhawks

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Free agency is now less than a week away and teams are looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Chicago Blackhawks

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Dylan Strome – On the day of the draft, TSN’s Bob McKenzie reported that the Blackhawks were not expected to extend Strome a qualifying offer. Strome is eligible for a qualifying offer worth $3.6MM, and it looks like the rebuilding Blackhawks aren’t interested in retaining Strome at that number. But that doesn’t mean other teams won’t be interested in Strome on the open market. While Strome hasn’t lived up to the hype he once held as the third overall pick at the 2015 draft, it would be misleading to say he’s been anything other than a reasonably productive NHL player since arriving in Chicago. He had 22 goals and 48 points this season, and in only one of his four seasons as Blackhawk Strome has scored under a 50-point pace. Sure, Strome has had the benefit of sometimes sharing the ice with Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat, and his skating, while improved, is still holding back his game. But even with those caveats, Strome’s production combined with his age (he will be 25 for most of next season) makes him an extremely intriguing project signing for a team that wants a scoring center at a lower price than the more established options. Perhaps Strome could look to sign with a team that has a play-driving, superstar winger in order to have a mid-twenties career renaissance similar to the one his brother Ryan Strome had with the New York Rangers.

F Dominik Kubalik –  Another non-tender candidate, Kubalik has regressed since his extremely impressive rookie season and endured a difficult 2021-22 campaign. He had 15 goals and 32 points this past season, a decline from the 25-goal, 56-point pace he played at last season, and the 30-goal, 46-point showing he produced as a rookie. Kubalik is due a $4MM qualifying offer, and it seems as though GM Kyle Davidson does not believe extending him that offer to retain his rights is in the best interest of the rebuilding Blackhawks. Like Strome, Kubalik is an interesting UFA option for many teams. He’s just two seasons removed from when he made the NHL’s All-Rookie team and was a Calder Trophy Finalist, and only one season removed from a healthy 25-goal, 50+ point offensive pace. Teams are always looking for big wingers who can score, and that’s exactly what Kubalik is. If teams can look past Kubalik’s difficult 2021-22, they could get the kind of valuable, relatively young player that is rarely made available on the open market.

D Caleb Jones – Unlike the other two RFA’s listed here, Jones, the brother of Seth Jones, is expected to re-sign with the Blackhawks this offseason, according to Scott Powers of The Athletic. Jones played a third-pairing role in Chicago to moderate success, ranking fifth among regular Blackhawks defensemen in time on ice per game. Jones was not a factor on either of the Blackhawks’ special teams units, but he does have a history as a regular penalty kill contributor from his time in the AHL with the Bakersfield Condors. Jones isn’t the caliber of defenseman his brother is but expecting him to fit in as a long-term third-pairing defenseman wouldn’t be unreasonable. A short-term deal around $1MM-$2MM makes the most sense here, although the Blackhawks could opt to try to lock him up long-term if they are believers in his NHL future.

Other RFA’s: F Philipp Kurashev, F Andrei Altybarmakyan, F Cameron Morrison, D Wyatt Kalynuk, G Cale Morris

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

D Calvin de Haan – The biggest-name veteran player the Blackhawks have to offer to the UFA market is defenseman Calvin de Haan. He was often mentioned in trade rumors but did not ultimately get moved at the 2022 deadline. De Haan, 31, is a veteran of 520 NHL games and has battled injuries throughout his NHL career. De Haan has only played in a full season once, and missed 13 games due to injuries this year. De Haan, the 12th overall pick at the 2009 NHL Draft, has had a successful NHL career thanks to his steady defensive play. De Haan’s offense is not what it used to be. While his career-high in points is a healthy 25, his eight points in 69 games this year are a sobering reminder of the declined state of his offensive tools. Nonetheless, De Haan still enters the market on stable ground: he’s an experienced, reliable defenseman who can help a second-unit penalty kill and fit in as a team’s fourth or fifth defenseman. While his next contract may come in lower than the $4.55MM he earned on his last deal, and the shoulder injuries he sustained may give some teams pause, he should still have a strong group of suitors once he hits the market next week.

G Kevin Lankinen – In some ways, Lankinen is in a similar situation to Kubalik. Like Kubalik, Lankinen was an out-of-nowhere import signing who, after a successful pro career in Europe, got into the rebuilding Blackhawks’ lineup and saw immediate success. Lankinen’s first 10 NHL starts were extremely promising: he posted a .920 save percentage or higher in seven of ten starts and frequently had to bail out a Chicago team that wasn’t putting forth a structured defensive effort to protect him. He effectively had to fend for himself early in his NHL career, and endeared himself to many Blackhawks fans in the process. The end of Lankinen’s rookie season was a struggle, and his numbers dipped overall, but his season-ending 17-14-5 record and .909 save percentage was indicative of the promise he flashed as a rookie. Lankinen even received seven Calder votes for his season and looked like he could possibly be the Blackhawks’ goalie of the future. 2021-22 didn’t go as planned, though, and Lankinen struggled as the Blackhawks plunged to the bottom of the NHL’s standings. The defensive performances in front of him didn’t help matters, but the reality was the nights that Lankinen would save the Blackhawks, which were all so common in his rookie year, were becoming few and far between. The Blackhawks recently acquired Petr Mrazek, but that shouldn’t block a return for Lankinen if that’s the route Davidson wants to pursue. If he hits the open market, Lankinen will be, like Strome and Kubalik, one of the more interesting (and risky) options on the open market.

Other UFA’s: D Erik Gustafsson, G Collin Delia, F Kurtis Gabriel

Projected Cap Space

For all the issues on the Blackhawks’ roster, the one advantage they do hold over most NHL clubs is that they have a wealth of cap space to work with. CapFriendly projects them to have $15MM of space to work with this offseason, and with the team expected to not qualify its most notable RFA’s, Davidson will have a blank canvas to work on in this summer’s market. Even with the $5.5MM cap recapture penalty incurred by Edmonton Oilers defenseman Duncan Keith’s retirement, they’ll be able to continue taking on other teams’ unwanted contracts in exchange for future assets, as they did with Mrazek.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: New York Rangers

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With the offseason in full swing, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming weeks.  Next up is a look at the Rangers.

2021-22 saw the Rangers turn their fortunes around quickly.  A year after missing the playoffs, new GM Chris Drury made several key changes both on the ice and behind the bench and New York made it all the way to the Eastern Conference Final before being ousted by Tampa Bay, winners of two straight Stanley Cups at the time.  For them to have a chance at making it back to that point, Drury has some work to do this summer.

Free Up Cap Space

This is a common one for a lot of teams, especially as we reach this post of the series where we’re looking at the ones that went the deepest in the playoffs.  Generally speaking, those teams tend to have cap crunches.  Right now, New York has a little over $10MM in cap space.  Without context, that doesn’t look half bad.  However, they have about six roster spots to fill with that money, some of which will cost a fair bit to fill (more on those shortly).  They don’t have enough to fill all of those slots right now.

On top of that, winger Alexis Lafreniere, center Filip Chytil, and defenseman K’Andre Miller are all a year away from restricted free agency.  All three of them will be eyeing considerable raises while Chytil will have arbitration eligibility at his disposal as well.  Knowing that group will become more expensive has to be at the back of Drury’s mind as he navigates his offseason planning while it only increases the urgency for them to create some cap flexibility.  That said, roughly half the league is trying to do that so freeing up any sort of meaningful cap room is much easier said than done.

Add A Backup Goalie

One of those roster spots is for a backup goaltender.  Knowing they wouldn’t be able to keep him, the Rangers traded Alexandar Georgiev to Colorado just before the draft in exchange for a trio of draft picks, a decent return considering some felt he was a likely non-tender candidate because of his arbitration eligibility.  While they did well in that trade, now they need to replace him.

In recent years, the backup goaltender market has gotten considerably more expensive as more teams look to a platoon situation.  New York certainly won’t be doing that with Igor Shesterkin entrenched as their starter but his presence coupled with their cap situation will price them out of shopping near the top end of the market.  Instead, they’ll be looking at the more affordable end with veterans like Thomas Greiss, Martin Jones, and Jaroslav Halak being potential fits on one-year deals.  A trade with a team that has surplus depth (San Jose would be an option) would also be a short-term solution.

While they’re looking at goaltenders, Drury will likely want to add a second veteran as well, one to take Keith Kinkaid’s place with AHL Hartford if they opt not to bring the 33-year-old back.  If the Rangers decide to try to save some money on their backup slot, they could look at a pair of prototypical third-string options and see how things shake out in training camp to see who starts with the big club.  That would free up another million or so for other needs but such an approach would certainly be risky.

Bridge For Kakko

Three years ago, the hope was that winger Kaapo Kakko would be exiting his entry-level contract having established himself as a cornerstone piece of the franchise.  However, the second-overall pick in 2019 hasn’t been able to live up to his draft billing just yet.  He has shown some promising flashes but after an injury-plagued year that limited him to just 43 regular season games where he had 18 points and a postseason that saw him pick up just five points in 19 contests while ending with him as a healthy scratch makes it extremely unlikely that either side would be interested in a long-term commitment right now.  Even if they were, finding a dollar figure that would work for both sides would be next to impossible.

So, a bridge deal is what Kakko’s contract is going to be then.  Which route the two sides go from there becomes the question.  The more years on the deal, the more expensive it will be.  A one-year pact would give the Rangers the most short-term flexibility but would hand Kakko arbitration rights next summer when Lafreniere, Chytil, and Miller are up for new contracts.  A three-year deal would give both sides some security and a bit more longer-term flexibility but puts him a year from UFA eligibility so that’s not necessarily ideal as well.  The expectation is that a two-year contract, the most common bridge deal, is the one that will eventually get done with an AAV around the $2.5MM range.

Add Impact Center

Ryan Strome’s tenure with the Rangers hasn’t always been the smoothest (to the point where they pondered non-tendering him two years ago) but in the end, it has been a pretty good one.  He put up 195 points in 263 games over parts of four seasons with a cap hit no higher than $4.5MM at any time.  As far as second-line production goes, that’s pretty good.  It’s the type of consistency that eluded Strome earlier in his career and as he’s coming off a season that saw him reach a new career-high in goals with 21, the 28-year-old has positioned himself for another raise.  It’s one that New York might not be able to afford.

New York also added Andrew Copp at the trade deadline to lengthen their lineup and also to get an early jump on trying to sign him as Strome’s possible long-term replacement.  But with him seeking a contract comparable to Zach Hyman (seven years, $5.5MM AAV), it’s unlikely that Copp will be in their price range as well.

Chytil was the 21st pick back in 2017 with the hopes that he’d be able to emerge as a capable two-way middleman.  He has shown some upside at times but over the last four years, his point totals have ranged from a low of 22 to a high of 23.  That type of production isn’t enough to comfortably hand him Strome’s old job even though a full season with Artemi Panarin would undoubtedly boost Chytil’s numbers.

With the internal options basically off the table barring a change in contract demands, Drury will have to look elsewhere for his second pivot behind Mika Zibanejad.  Of course, the top free agent options in Nazem Kadri and Vincent Trocheck are going to land pricier long-term deals so they’re out of reach as well with New York’s current cap situation.  Finding someone capable of playing that role at a price tag that’s equal to lower than what Strome made the last two years is undoubtedly a tall task but Drury will need to find a way to fill that spot either through free agency or a trade over the next couple of weeks.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Colorado Avalanche

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Free agency is now less than a week away and teams are looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Colorado Avalanche.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Artturi Lehkonen – Montreal didn’t want to move the winger at the trade deadline but GM Joe Sakic parted with prospect blueliner Justin Barron and a 2024 second-round pick which was enough to land the 27-year-old.  The move worked out quite well for Lehkonen and Colorado as he proved to be a strong fit both offensively and defensively while he scored a pair of key goals in the playoffs, the one to get them to the Stanley Cup Final and the one that was the Cup-winner in the sixth game of the series.  Lehkonen has yet to crack the 40-point mark in his career but is a strong defensive forward and with his offensive improvement in Colorado, he could pass the $4MM mark on a one-year award while a long-term deal that buys out some UFA eligibility could push him closer to the $4.5MM range.

G Alexandar Georgiev – The freshly-acquired netminder is in need of a new contract and his fortune has certainly changed in recent days.  Some expected him to be non-tendered with the goalie trade market usually not being strong but that changed this year with Colorado flipping three draft picks for the rights to the 26-year-old.  Georgiev is arbitration-eligible and is coming off a quiet season that saw him post a 2.92 GAA along with a SV% of just .898.  However, with the Avs committing to a platoon of Georgiev and Pavel Francouz, it’s clear they’ll want to get their new goalie locked up on a multi-year deal soon.  GM Joe Sakic told reporters after the draft, including Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic (Twitter link) that he expects to get this deal done by the end of the weekend.

F Nicolas Aube-Kubel – Claimed off waivers by Colorado back in November, the 26-year-old fit in well with the Avalanche, picking up 11 goals and 11 assists in 67 games despite averaging less than 10 minutes a night in ice time.  He’s owed a qualifying offer of $1.225MM which isn’t overly high but he’s also arbitration-eligible.  It’s possible that the Avs want to avoid giving Aube-Kubel that option as that could push the salary higher than they can afford for someone in that role.  If they can’t get an agreement in place by the tender deadline, it’s possible that Aube-Kubel goes unqualified.

Other RFAs: F Shane Bowers, F Callahan Burke, F Nick Henry, F Mikhail Maltsev, D Keaton Middleton, F Andreas Wingerli

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Nazem Kadri – There’s rarely a bad time for a career year offensively but having one in the final season of a contract before becoming UFA-eligible is basically the best time for one.  Kadri, who had been a solid secondary scorer for most of his career, found a new gear entirely as he set new career-bests in assists (59) and points (87) in 71 games while logging over 19 minutes a game.  As a result, the 31-year-old has positioned himself as the top center on the UFA market this summer and as we all know, high-end centers are always in short supply and high demand and Kadri is well-positioned to go for a seven-year max-term deal with a cap hit at or higher than $8MM per season.  That’s a price tag Colorado is unlikely to be able to afford especially with Nathan MacKinnon’s contract up a year from now.

F Valeri Nichushkin – Dallas fans can only be wondering ‘what if?’ when it comes to the 27-year-old.  After two disappointing stints with the Stars including one where he didn’t score a single goal in 57 games, they actually bought him out which paved the way for him to join Colorado.  From there, Nichushkin has continually improved and is coming off a 25-goal, 27-assist season in just 62 games while providing strong offensive contributions in the playoffs with 15 points in 20 contests.  He’s a quality penalty killer as well which only increases his value.  Nichushkin is coming off a contract that carried a $2.5MM AAV and it’s quite possible he doubles that on the open market next week.

F Andre Burakovsky – The 27-year-old wasn’t able to produce with the type of consistency Washington was hoping for which helped lead to his trade to Colorado in 2019.  Since then, Burakovsky has been able to put up consistent second-line production and he improved on that in 2021-22 with 22 goals and 39 assists, both career-highs.  That has him in line for a nice jump on the $4.9MM AAV he has played under for the last two seasons.  An extra million or so on a long-term agreement is definitely doable.

G Darcy Kuemper – Colorado paid a high price to get Kuemper on the final year of his contract (with salary retention) and they quickly realized they wouldn’t be able to afford the veteran on his next deal, leading to the Georgiev trade.  The 32-year-old is the most proven goalie to hit the market this summer and is coming off a strong season that saw him post a 2.54 GAA along with a .921 SV%.  While his numbers weren’t as impressive in the playoffs, that shouldn’t hurt his market too much.  It has been suggested that his camp is seeking a contract similar to the one former Colorado netminder Philipp Grubauer received from Seattle (six years, $5.9MM AAV).  Kuemper might not get that at his age but something close should be doable.

D Josh Manson – When Colorado picked up Manson, they were looking for some reliability and stability at the bottom of their defense corps.  He provided exactly that.  The 30-year-old played a lesser role than he did with Anaheim but that shouldn’t affect his market next week.  Manson is a quality second-pairing player that can play upwards of 20 minutes a game, kill penalties, and play in late-game defensive situations.  A lack of offense limits his earnings upside to a degree (he has only reached 20 points once in an eight-year NHL career) but he should be able to get a bit more than the $4.1MM he made on his expiring contract with a multi-year commitment as well.

Other UFAs: D Dennis Gilbert, D Jordan Gross, F Darren Helm, D Jack Johnson, D Jacob MacDonald, F Stefan Matteau, D Roland McKeown, G Hunter Miska, D Ryan Murray, F Kiefer Sherwood, F Dylan Sikura, F Nico Sturm

Projected Cap Space

Colorado has over $24MM in cap space to work with.  Suffice it to say, it won’t take long to spend that up as a few of the above players plus some depth pieces to round out the roster will more or less take care of that money in a hurry.  The Avalanche will be losing some important players next week but there’s a big, shiny silver lining that they won a couple of weeks ago that should help ease the sting of some of those pending departures.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Edmonton Oilers

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With the offseason in full swing, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming weeks.  Next up is a look at the Oilers.

This past season was a good one for the Oilers as they were able to make it to the Western Conference Final for the first time since 2006 before being taken out by the eventual Cup-winning Avalanche.  Now, GM Ken Holland has some work to do to keep as much of the core intact while trying to add a piece or two to bolster their chances for next year.

New Deals For RFA Wingers

Let’s start with the free agent front.  Thanks to their cap situation, they were forced to give low-cost bridge contracts to wingers Kailer Yamamoto and Jesse Puljujarvi.  It worked in the sense that it allowed them to have enough flexibility to add some other pieces to their roster for 2021-22 and clearly, some of those additions helped propel them to the third round.  But now, those young wingers are about to cost more.

Yamamoto will be owed a $1.175MM qualifying offer but should more than double that on his next contract.  After a tough showing in 2020-21, the 23-year-old bounced back nicely, hitting the 20-goal mark for the first time while setting new career bests in assists (21) and points (41) as well.  He didn’t produce at the same point-per-game rate that he did in his rookie campaign but he spent most of the year in Edmonton’s top six, logging nearly 17 minutes a game.  Yamamoto is now arbitration-eligible and with the year he had, he’ll have a strong case to push for something in the high-$2MM range if it gets to a hearing.  Another short-term contract is likely to keep the cost down but it will cost a fair bit more this time around.

As for Puljujarvi, the 24-year-old has had more success in his second stint in the NHL and is coming off a career year of his own with 36 points in 65 games with impressive possession stats as well.  His playoff performance ended things on a sour note but with him being arbitration-eligible as well, he’s in line to earn considerably more than his $1.41MM qualifying offer.  At this point, a trade appears to be likely but that was the expected outcome a few years ago when he first wanted out.  If he sticks around, they’ll need to pay up to keep him.  If he goes, they’ll need to find a pretty good player to replace him, one that won’t come all that cheap.

Add A Goalie

Now, onto the obvious one.  Goaltending has been an issue for the Oilers for several years now and while Holland has tried to get in on the bidding for some of the notable free agents (such as Jacob Markstrom), he hasn’t been able to land an impact starter.  Keeping Mike Smith around was supposed to give them some stability but the combination of him and Mikko Koskinen was highly volatile.  Now, Koskinen is off to Switzerland while there has been plenty of speculation that Smith, who has one more year left on his contract, is expected to spend 2022-23 on LTIR after playing through several injuries during Edmonton’s playoff run.  That leaves a pair of openings to fill.

One of those can be covered internally by Stuart Skinner who didn’t look out of place in a dozen starts this past season.  He’s under contract for the league minimum for 2022-23 which will give Holland a little extra flexibility to work with.  However, the 23-year-old isn’t ready to be an NHL starter yet and hasn’t played 50 regular season games in a full professional year.  He’s someone that could be leaned on for 25-30 starts but anything more than that would be risky.  Accordingly, the Oilers will need a true starter or at least someone that’s capable of playing the strong side of a platoon.

Looking into free agency, there aren’t a lot of those available with some of the more prominent names coming off the board over the last 48 hours.  Darcy Kuemper will hit the open market with Colorado opting to go in a different direction and Jack Campbell remains unsigned.  Those are the only two goalies that made more than 35 starts in 2021-22.  Unless there’s a trade out there for an affordable goaltender to materialize, their options are limited and Edmonton will need to make sure one of those two is in their lineup on opening night.

Re-Sign Or Replace Kane

A few days ago, it looked like it would be quite difficult for Edmonton to have a chance at keeping Evander Kane in the fold.  The power forward fit in quite well after joining the team midseason and is well-positioned to land a sizable contract.  It probably won’t be as high as the one that San Jose terminated but he will land one of the bigger deals on the open market next week.  But with them offloading Zack Kassian’s contract to Arizona and Duncan Keith set to retire, more than $8.5MM in cap room is opened up.  Smith being LTIR-bound would give them another $2.2MM to work with although they’ll need that and more to fill the goalie vacancy.

All of a sudden, there’s at least a pathway towards Holland being able to take a legitimate run at keeping Kane around and ensuring a key part of their attack – he had 22 goals in just 43 games – sticks around.  If not, they’ll need to put that money to good use to bring in another top-six forward to replace him.  If they have to go the latter route, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Edmonton prefer a shorter-term option – someone like Claude Giroux – whose contract would expire by the time Draisaitl’s contract wraps up in 2025.  Keith’s retirement has given Holland a chance to bring back or bring in another key piece and they’ll need to take advantage of it.

Add Defensive Depth

Keith’s retirement also opens up a spot on the back end to fill as the soon-to-be 39-year-old logged nearly 20 minutes a night on Edmonton’s blueline.  While Evan Bouchard can conceivably cover a couple more than what he logged in 2021-22, the Oilers will need to find a replacement that’s at least capable of playing 16-18 minutes per contest.

On top of that, Brett Kulak and Kris Russell are pending unrestricted free agents, opening up a pair of slots at the end of their roster.  While Kulak is a candidate to be brought back – more so following the Keith news – a depth defender or two would go a long way towards giving them a bit of stability on the third pairing.  Philip Broberg has some upside but limited NHL experience so far while their current depth options like Slater Koekkoek and Dmitri Samorukov aren’t players they should be comfortable using on an every-game basis.

What they are or aren’t able to do here will largely be determined by what happens with their goalie situation and Kane but is something that Holland will be looking to address in the coming weeks.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Carolina Hurricanes

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With the offseason in full swing, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Carolina Hurricanes.

Dominant regular season, disappointing second-round exit. That’s two years running for the Hurricanes, who are 90-32-16 over the past two regular seasons and have barely anything to show for it. With plenty of talent scheduled for unrestricted free agency, and tough decisions cresting the horizon, this could be a huge offseason for general manager Don Waddell.

Is Martin Necas Part Of The Answer?

Forty points in 71 games isn’t bad. No one is saying that Necas deserves to be shipped overseas or jammed in the minor leagues. The 23-year-old is obviously good enough to contribute at the NHL level, and he’s proven it with 119 points over 203 career games. But time is starting to tick on his career in Carolina if he isn’t able to take the next step.

This is a player that was expected to be a leader by now, someone the Hurricanes could rely on to drive the second line and take some pressure off Sebastian Aho. Instead, he has been limited to the wing for basically his entire NHL career, saw a steep downturn in point production this year, and has been essentially replaced by Seth Jarvis on the team’s depth chart.

Now a restricted free agent, there have been rumblings that Carolina could be open to moving the 2017 12th-overall pick. Making a decision one way or another will have to be done soon, as Necas needs a new contract with the Hurricanes or any team they trade him to.

Replace Or Re-Sign Vincent Trocheck

If the Hurricanes do end up losing Trocheck to the open market, they’re going to need to find a second-line center. Jordan Staal has always been best suited as a third-line pivot, while Jesperi Kotkaniemi probably isn’t ready to take over that spot full-time. That means combing the free agent market or making a trade, since there isn’t another obvious internal option.

Of course, the team could just keep Trocheck as well, but given what he is likely to command on the open market–at least in terms of contract years–they may not want to commit. That could put them in a difficult position when July 13 rolls around, scrambling to find a replacement that costs less and fits into their fast, retrieval-oriented, system.

With Nino Niederreiter also set to become an unrestricted free agent, the Hurricanes have to be careful not to lose too much of their identity up front this season, chasing the answer somewhere else.

Sort Out The Defense

Hard to believe that a team like Carolina would need to add defense, given their history of overstocking the position, but that appears to be the case this summer. Ian Cole and Brendan Smith are UFAs, Ethan Bear is on the trade block, and Tony DeAngelo has already been given permission to talk to other teams, given the huge arbitration award he would likely receive if the team gave him a qualifying offer. The team isn’t in a desperate spot but there could be several new faces on the back-end at the start of next season.

One interesting wrinkle is the presence of Jake Gardiner, who has been deemed healthy enough to resume his career next season. The 32-year-old hasn’t played in over a year, meaning it’s completely uncertain what the Hurricanes will actually receive from him on the ice. It’s hard to rely on him providing value anywhere near his $4.05MM cap hit, muddling the situation even further.

Keep An Eye On Goaltending

For the second year in a row, Frederik Andersen disappeared with a mysterious injury when his team needed him most. The last time the veteran netminder appeared in a postseason game was the 2020 bubble, despite him winning the Jennings Trophy and finishing fourth in Vezina Trophy voting this year.

A .922 save percentage in the regular season is great, but if the Hurricanes can’t rely on Andersen by the time the playoffs roll around, none of it really matters. With him and partner Antti Raanta both heading into the final year of their respective deals, the Hurricanes will need to keep one eye open for any goaltending opportunities.

Sure, Pyotr Kochetkov looks like he might be something, but handing the keys over to a 24-year-old netminder in 2023-24 certainly doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence. If a chance to upgrade the position–even just health-wise–presents itself, Waddell and his staff need to strike.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Free Agent Focus: Columbus Blue Jackets

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Free agency is now less than two weeks away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Columbus Blue Jackets.

Key Restricted Free Agents:

F Emil Bemstrom – A fourth-round pick in 2017, Bemstrom had a strong debut in 2019-20, putting up 10 goals and 10 assists in 56 games for Columbus seeing just over 12 minutes a night of ice time. However, after his debut, he was limited to just 20 games in 2020-21, where he tallied only five points and didn’t fair much better this season, having 11 points in 41 games. Concerning as the bit of regression is for Bemstrom, he does have two things on his side: Columbus’ transitioning period as they search for talent to move forward with, and age, at just 23-years old. Because of those factors, Bemstrom is a likely candidate to be brought back into the fold with the Blue Jackets and have a chance to prove himself, but it may not be for much more, or even as much as, the $925K AAV he had on the ELC that is set to expire.

F Patrik Laine – The Blue Jackets don’t have too much in the way of free agents this offseason, but they do have one of the most discussed RFAs of the summer in Laine. After Laine held out in the summer of 2019 and was eventually traded from the Winnipeg Jets, Columbus fans might fret about their team’s ability to get a deal done with the winger, but not to worry, as The Athletic’s Aaron Portzline reports, the two sides are speaking regularly and amicably with the goal of a long-term extension for the Finnish sniper in mind. Having concluded a one-year, $7.5MM contract that saw Laine become a point-per-game player for the first time in his career, albeit in just 56 games, the 24-year-old is due for a raise, especially if the Blue Jackets would like to keep him around for the long haul. Fortunately for Columbus, the question seems to be “how much” and not “can it happen?” A long-term extension with Laine would, most importantly, provide the retooling franchise with a cornerstone player for it’s next build locked in at a guaranteed rate for years to come, making future decisions easier and more predictable.

D Adam Boqvist – One of the more exciting prospects in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft, Boqvist was selected eighth-overall by the Chicago Blackhawks and was later traded to the Columbus Blue Jackets as one of the centerpieces of the Seth Jones trade. Though Boqvist has certainly not been bad in his young career, he has yet to reach the heights projected for him by many. His most complete season to date came in 2021-22, where the defenseman had 11 goals and 11 assists in 52 games. Still, as his been the story for much of his professional career, Boqvist missed significant time with injury. There’s no question the Swede will return to Columbus and aim to be a significant contributor if healthy, but he won’t see the massive extension given to fellow 2018 selection Quinn Hughes or the one due to Noah Dobson.

D Nick Blankenburg, D Gabriel Carlsson, F Trey Fix-Wolansky, F Kevin Stenlund

Key Unrestricted Free Agents:

The Blue Jackets are in an interesting position, with no significant UFAs to deal with this offseason. Of the names listed below, only Harrington and Berube played in the NHL this year, each only playing in a handful of games. Those two as well as Sikura could be candidates to be re-signed as depth for the NHL club and to round out the Cleveland Monsters AHL lineup, with Gerbe and Rinaldo not having played since the 2020-21 season. Johnson is an intriguing name, having been serviceable in 20 games in the AHL this season, he was phenomenal for the Florida Everblades of the ECHL, helping the team win the Kelly Cup.

Despite the lack of key UFAs, Columbus could look ahead to a pair of UFAs to-be in forward Gustav Nyquist and defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov, who will both hit the market in 2023. It’s unclear what the plan for these two is in Columbus, however Nyquist has continued to produce the steady offensive output that helped him sign his current four-year, $22MM contract, while Gavrikov has established himself as a defensive backbone on the team’s blueline.

F Nathan Gerbe, F Zac Rinaldo, F Tyler Sikura, D Scott Harrington, G Jean-Francois Berube, G Cam Johnson

Projected Cap Space:

The Blue Jackets will enter this offseason with just over $19.5MM in available cap space, plenty to return all expiring contracts if they wish. Though it’s plenty, Laine’s extension, which should include an AAV higher than the $7.5MM he made in 2021-22, will take up a significant portion of that space. It’s likely the club will look at some additions to help round out the roster and perhaps help if the team is more competitive than expected, but it appears the organization will take the time to evaluate its talent and give as much time and experience as possible to younger players they want to build around, like Boqvist and forwards Cole Sillinger and Kent Johnson. One of the brightest spots for the organization is, once a long-term deal with Laine is complete, the team will still have a comfortable amount of cap space to work with, while having all of their experienced building-blocks, including Laine, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Zach Werenski, and Elvis Merzlikins, already signed long-term.

Offseason Checklist: St. Louis Blues

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With the offseason in full swing, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Blues.

2021-22 was a decent season for St. Louis.  While they finished in third in a very tight Central Division, they got past Minnesota in the first round and then took the eventual Cup-winning Avalanche to six games.  GM Doug Armstrong can afford to keep most of the core together but there will still be a lot of work to do over the coming weeks.

Decide Tarasenko’s Future

Last summer, Vladimir Tarasenko wanted a trade but coming off another season that saw him miss extended time due to a shoulder issue and a $7.5MM cap hit, there were no takers.  Seattle had an opportunity to take him in expansion and passed.  The end result was somewhat of an awkward return to St. Louis.

It’s safe to say it worked out well for both sides.  Tarasenko was able to show that he’s fully recovered from his shoulder surgeries, getting back to the 30-goal mark while eclipsing 80 points for the first time in his career.  That was good enough for him to lead the Blues in scoring, giving them a much deeper offensive group in the process.

Now Armstrong has a decision to make.  The trade request hasn’t been rescinded and there should be a much better trade market for Tarasenko’s services this time around although it’s worth noting that Tarasenko has a full no-trade clause which could come into play as well.  The fact that the commitment is only for one year will help his value in a cap environment where it’s difficult to move pricey multi-year contracts.  Moving him would almost certainly yield some cap savings which could come in handy this summer.

But trading Tarasenko away now would also create a big opening to fill on the Blues as teams rarely get better after trading their top scorer.  While there’s definitely a risk in potentially losing him for nothing in free agency, that has to be weighed against their current situation where they’re a team with an eye on contending next season.  The next couple of weeks is when trade activity is at its peak so if Armstrong is pondering a trade, it may need to happen sooner than later.

Re-Sign Or Replace Husso

Coming into the season, Jordan Binnington was expected to be the starter for the Blues with Ville Husso, who had a quiet rookie year, serving as the backup.  That changed in the second half of the year when Binnington struggled and Husso stepped up with a .917 SV% from the beginning of January to the end of the season.  Unfortunately for Husso and the Blues, the 27-year-old struggled in the playoffs when Binnington was injured so his season ended on a down note.  However, Husso showed enough during the season to position himself as one of the top goalies heading into unrestricted free agency this month where he’ll also be one of the younger goalies to hit the open market.

That has him well-positioned to earn a significant raise after making the league minimum the last two years.  While it’s unlikely he’ll be able to command true starter money – he has 64 career NHL appearances (including playoffs) after all – Husso could reasonably expect to get the type of top backup money that has been thrown around in recent years in free agency.  Jonathan Bernier, a platoon goalie like Husso might be best suited to be, just received a two-year deal with a $4.125MM cap hit last summer from New Jersey.  With the potential for more upside, it’s quite possible that Husso could receive more than that on the open market on a multi-year commitment.

Is that something the Blues can afford on their books with Binnington still on the books for another half-decade at $6MM per season?  Is that a price they should want to pay even if they had the money to?  If Armstrong feels that the answer to one of those questions is no, then St. Louis will be among the teams joining the annual goalie shuffle that will take place at the start of free agency on July 13th.

Extension Talks

In their summer spending planning, the Blues will need to keep in mind that three prominent forwards (beyond Tarasenko) will need new contracts a year from now so any spending this offseason could cut into what they have for contracts in 2023 (unless they sign players to one-year deals).  Once July 13th hits, contract extensions can be worked out and Armstrong will be wanting to have those discussions somewhat quickly.

Ryan O’Reilly continues to be one of the more prominent two-way centers in the league.  He consistently produces at a minimum of a 60-point pace (over a full 82-game season), kills penalties, and is one of the most prominent faceoff players in the league.  He’s not a true number one center in terms of his scoring output but prior to this past season, he averaged more than 20 minutes a game for six straight years.  With a $7.5MM cap hit currently, O’Reilly – who will be 32 when it starts – could conceivably command a similar price tag on a long-term deal, one that runs a little longer than preferred to keep the AAV down.

Then there are a pair of prominent younger forwards who will be coming off their $2.8MM bridge contracts in Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou.  Both players hit career highs across the board in 2021-22 while surpassing the point-per-game mark.  A repeat performance on either side would only push the asking price higher than it might be this summer.  At this point, barring a significant drop-off next season, both players should easily double their current price tag at a minimum.  New long-term contracts for those two basically will offset any cap savings if one of Tarasenko or O’Reilly goes unsigned a year from now.

While he’s not at the level of the other three listed here, it’s also worth mentioning that center Ivan Barbashev will also be on an expiring deal next summer and is extension-eligible later this month.  He’s currently on a $2.25MM and is coming off a 60-point season.  The 27-year-old will be unrestricted in 2023 and is currently in a position to land a significant raise of his own.  It’s less likely that he’ll be extended now since his performance was an outlier relative to his first few seasons but if Armstrong intends to keep him around, he’ll be budgeting some room for that as well.

Create Cap Flexibility

If you read through that and thought to yourself that the Blues could use some extra cap flexibility, you’re certainly not the only one who thinks that.  Looking ahead to this summer’s spending, it should also be noted that on top of Husso being unrestricted later this month, so are winger David Perron and defenseman Nick Leddy, both quality veterans.

It’s well-known that there is a mutual desire for Perron to stick around which will cut into the $9MM of cap space they have to work with this summer and likely into 2022-23’s money as well unless they can convince the 34-year-old to take a one-year deal.  Doing so would put Perron’s next contract into 35+ territory so that’s not an ideal scenario from his point of view.  Between that and needing some money for Husso or his replacement, it’s unlikely that Leddy returns although St. Louis would undoubtedly love to try to bring in an upgrade there as well.

There’s one contract that stands out above the rest in terms of an overpayment that they’d likely want to get out of and that’s defenseman Marco Scandella.  At $3.275MM for two more years, it’s not as if it’s a massive above-market contract but they can likely find someone capable of covering his 18 minutes a game for less money.  After that, however, it’s important parts of their core that might have to be moved to create that extra wiggle room.  In an ideal world, Armstrong is able to kick that decision down to next summer and delay the tough decisions for another year but they’ll need to move one notable salary off the books to have a chance at that happening.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Dallas Stars

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Free agency is now less than two weeks away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Dallas Stars.

Key Restricted Free Agents:

F Jason Robertson – The first full season of Robertson’s career established him as a key member of the Stars’ offense and earned him a quality pay-day at the end of his ELC. Robertson’s second full season, however, established him as a superstar in the NHL and not only gave him a shot at a big contract, but gave the hockey world an intriguing offseason storyline. Robertson amassed an outstanding 41 goals and 38 assists in just 74 games this season, leading the team in goals and helping put Dallas back in the playoffs. Now an RFA and soon to be 23-year-old, Robertson will have some leverage in negotiations, with Dallas presumably looking to lock him up long-term. A deal with term isn’t out of the question for Dallas, but it’ll come at a premium, as recent contract given to Andrei Svechnikov ($7.75MM AAV), Jack Hughes ($8MM AAV), and Brady Tkachuk ($8.2MM AAV) likely set the baseline for Robertson in negotiations, with the possibility to push for even more.

G Jake Oettinger – Robertson wasn’t the only one to significantly boost his value this season, as Oettinger too turned an impressive debut into an outstanding sophomore campaign. After a .911 save-percentage and 2.36 goals-against average in 29 games in 2020-21, Oettinger posted a .914 save-percentage and 2.53 goals-against average in 48 regular season games in 2021-22 before an incredible playoff performance that saw him record a .954 save-percentage and 1.81 goals-against average in a seven-game series against the Calgary Flames. Like Robertson, Oettinger should have some control of his destiny, namely the term of the contract. One comparable, at least as a base, could be Philadelphia Flyers goaltender Carter Hart, who signed a three-year deal worth $3.979MM per season following the 2020-21 season, which included two comparable seasons to Oettinger, followed by a poor 2020-21.

F Jordan Kawaguchi, F Alexey Lipanov, F Marian Studenic, D Ben Gleason, G Colton Point

Key Unrestricted Free Agents:

F Vladislav Namestnikov – A solid contributor, Namestnikov doesn’t have the star power of a Robertson, but has frequently found himself as a deadline-day asset in recent years. Coming off a season where he scored 16 goals to go with 14 assists in 75 games between Dallas and the Detroit Red Wings, Namestnikov is a proven commodity to provide secondary scoring for a competitive team. With the Stars’ need to lock up a couple of core pieces, he may be a luxury they can’t afford, but if they can replicate the two-year, $2MM AAV that just expired, an extension may be hard to pass up.

F Michael Raffl – Much like Namestnikov, Raffl isn’t going to compete for the Hart Trophy, but does provide a valuable service to a competitive team. The two-way forward is coming off a 16 point season in 76 games with a career-worst minus-19 rating, but the veteran did line up in his own end more than 70% of the time, showing the Stars’ reliance on Raffl’s defensive ability. The Austrian has never earned more than $2.35MM in a season, most recently making $1.1MM on a one-year pact, an affordable rate for his services and one, like Namestnikov, could return at the right price as a role-player in Dallas.

D John Klingberg – Perhaps the least likely to return of all players on this list, Klingberg is a well-regarded puck moving defenseman who will assuredly find term and salary on his next deal. Given the Stars cap situation with the contracts that are due, they may be priced out. Even so, the transition away from Klingberg will allow the team to give elevated minutes and responsibility to Miro Heiskanen and Thomas Harley. Still, it wouldn’t be completely accurate to say that Klingberg is absolutely on his way out, with both sides indicating a mutual desire for a reunion, but with a player like Torey Krug earning a seven-year, $45.5MM contract two offseasons ago, an extension with Klingberg may be tough to justify.

F Blake Comeau, F Joel L’Esperance, F Alexander Radulov, D Andrej Sekera, G Braden Holtby

Projected Cap Space:

Dallas will head into the offseason with a comfortable $18.56MM in salary cap space, plenty to work with, but with what figures to be two expensive RFAs. If, for argument’s sake, Robertson was to sign an $8MM AAV contract like Hughes and Oettinger a $4MM AAV just above Hart, Dallas would be left with $6.56MM in cap space. If they want to keep Klingberg, it may take letting a few names, like Raffl and Namestnikov, walk and likely another move too. On the other hand, they could bring back most players, including those two, allowing Klingberg leave, and find themselves at or just below the cap ceiling, but with little room or opportunity to improve.

Their first round defeat at the hands of Calgary was a rather impressive showing, but if the franchise wants to take another step forward, while losing Klingberg, there will need to be some improvements. One way to create additional space would be to deal goaltender Anton Khudobin, who has one more year at $3.33MM on his contract. A trade of Khudobin may cost Dallas an asset or two, but the team has all but its seventh to offer out of its 2022 class of draft picks. If Dallas can bring in a player or two, they still must be weary of their cap situation, with a raise to Roope Hintz and his $3.15MM cap hit due after this coming season.

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