Headlines

Go To MLB Trade Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

Free Agent Focus: Florida Panthers

at CDT | by 7 Comments

Free agency is now less than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Panthers.

Key Restricted Free Agents:

F Eetu Luostarinen – Acquired in the trade that sent Vincent Trocheck to the Carolina Hurricanes, Luostarinen established himself as a quality option for the Panthers this year, scoring nine goals along with 17 assists over 78 games. This season was the 23-year-old’s third in the NHL, but only his first full season, playing 44 games in the COVID-shortened 2020-21 campaign, in addition to eight the year prior for Carolina. Now an RFA at the conclusion of his ELC, Luostarinen may not see much of a raise over his previous salary. However, with the Panthers in a difficult position relative to the salary cap, and his solid contributions last season, he may find himself in a somewhat elevated role with increased ice time and responsibility which could, if he can continue to build on his game, go a long way to his next contract.

Other RFAs: F Henry Bowlby, F Aleksi Heponiemi, F German Rubtsov, D Lucas Carlsson, G Evan Fitzpatrick, G Jonas Johansson

Key Unrestricted Free Agents:

F Claude Giroux – One of the most sought after players at the 2021 trade deadline, Giroux is now one of the most prized free agents in the 2021 class. The Philadelphia Flyers legend was dealt to the Panthers at the trade deadline where he immediately clicked with an already stellar Florida offense, producing 23 points in 18 regular season games and another eight in 10 playoff games. Giroux will have his pick of teams this summer, and should have the freedom to choose his destination based on his priority. At age 34, having just finished an eight-year, $66.2MM contract that carried an AAV of $8.275MM, Giroux won’t again see that amount of term, but a contract with a salary close to his previous may not be out of reach. The issue for Giroux, specifically in the flat cap era, will be balancing whether or not he wants to maximize the financial commitment on this contract or go to a particular situation, perhaps a team with a real chance to win a Stanley Cup. If he wants to stay with the Panthers, who figure to be one of those teams with a real chance to win the Cup, not only will Giroux have to take a pronounced discount, but the organization itself may need to conduct some roster-reconstruction to make it happen.

F Mason Marchment – Amongst the most interesting breakout players in the NHL this year was Mason Marchment, a longtime member of the Toronto Maple Leafs organization who was dealt to Florida in February of 2020 for Denis Malgin. A large, imposing, physical forward, Marchment was never a major offensive weapon until this season, where he put up 18 goals and 29 assists in just 54 games, all career-highs by a wide margin. At age 27, Marchment hits unrestricted free agency coming off not only his best NHL season to date, but arguably his best season since he debuted in the OHL in 2014-15 with the Erie Otters. Given his recent and somewhat unprecedented breakout, Marchment may have trouble finding a long-term, big-money contract on the free agent market, but his blend of physical play with offensive production should provide him with plenty of options. Though Florida will have to make some tough financial decisions, a reunion with Marchment at a lower price may make sense, giving the forward another season in the middle of a dynamic offense to show that his impressive 2021-22 was his standard, and not a fluke.

F Joe Thornton – The future Hall of Famer turns 43 on July 2nd and despite battling injuries this season has not ruled out another year in the NHL. Thornton has seemingly had several different NHL careers, most recently playing the role of a bottom-six veteran willing to do what’s asked of him. Still without a Stanley Cup, Thornton signed with the Panthers prior to the 2021-22 season in the hopes of winning his first Cup, but fell short when Florida lost in four games to the Tampa Bay Lightning in the second round. Despite decreased production the past few seasons, Thornton has played well in his role and could very well join a competitive team, including Florida, on a league minimum salary, bringing valuable intangibles to the team’s dressing room.

D Ben Chiarot – Similar to Giroux, Chiarot found himself as one of the most sought after targets at this year’s trade deadline as a reliable shutdown defenseman. Also like Giroux, Chiarot found himself traded to Florida at the deadline with a first-round draft pick going the other way. At the conclusion of the three-year, $10.5MM contract that brought him to Montreal, the 31-year-old Chiarot probably won’t find the same salary Giroux is about to on the open market, but his play for the Canadiens and Panthers, which includes 42 playoff games, should earn him at least a similar deal from a team looking for a solid and sturdy left-handed defenseman.

Other UFAs: F Noel Acciari, F Maxim Mamin, D Robert Hagg, D Petteri Lindbohm, D Markus Nutivaara, D Chase Priskie, G Christopher Gibson

Projected Cap Space:

According to CapFriendly, the Panthers enter this offseason with $3.074MM in projected salary cap space. The flat salary cap has put a number of NHL teams in a bind, meaning Florida is not alone and the limited space is understandable, however that does not make the number any easier to work with. This figure may be enough to bring back one or two of the players discussed, but won’t be enough to retain a marquee player like Giroux. Even aside from those players, Florida is likely faced with losing at least a couple of Acciari, Mamin, Hagg, Lindbohm, Nutivaara and Priskie, all of whom would have been expected to take on some of the responsibilities of those the team may already lose.

There are several options to create additional cap space, including a potential trade of Patric Hornqvist, who will be an UFA after 2022-23 and carries a cap hit of $5.3MM. Florida could also explore the trade market for former Vezina Trophy winner Sergei Bobrovsky, but it may require them to retain as much as half of Bobrovsky’s $10MM salary over each of the next four seasons, not to mention necessitating a replacement to back-up 21-year-old Spencer Knight, who has just 36 NHL games under his belt.

Offseason Checklist: Dallas Stars

at CDT | by 3 Comments

With the offseason in full swing aside from the two teams in the Stanley Cup Final, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Stars.

The Stars were able to secure the top Wild Card spot in the West this season, allowing them to avoid Colorado in the opening round.  They were close to pulling off the upset against Calgary but came up just short, resulting in a significant move behind the bench with Peter DeBoer taking over for Rick Bowness; the rest of the staff will need to be filled out.  In terms of their on-ice personnel, GM Jim Nill has some work to do this summer.

Re-Sign Or Replace Klingberg

John Klingberg’s contract situation is something that loomed over the club all season long.  While both sides have expressed a desire for him to stick around, they didn’t appear to be close during the regular season which led to what ranged from either a full trade request to Klingberg being extremely upset about the state of negotiations, depending on various reports.  At one point, his camp was given permission to speak to other teams which resulted in plenty of trade speculation leading up to the trade deadline although a trade obviously didn’t happen.

Now, the contractual situation jumps back to the forefront.  Klingberg was believed to be seeking a max-term eight-year deal with reports putting the AAV around the $8MM mark which would be nearly double the $4.25MM he had been getting for the past seven seasons.  The 29-year-old certainly has a strong case for the big jump as well.  He’s coming off a year where he collected 47 points in 74 games while only seven blueliners have more points than him over his eight-year NHL career.  He’s going to be one of the top players to get to the open market this summer.

Accordingly, Nill has a big decision to make.  Does he move close enough to Klingberg’s asking price at the eight-year term (which may not be too enticing since he turns 30 in August) or does he make other plans to replace him?  With some other big contracts on the horizon (more on those shortly), can they afford another pricey long-term commitment or would they be better off trying to sign or acquire a cheaper, shorter-term replacement?  Nill only has a couple more weeks to ponder that decision.

New Deal For Robertson

After spending most of his first professional season in the minors, Jason Robertson has quickly emerged as a legitimate top winger and in his first full year in the NHL, he provided Dallas with 41 goals (including a league-high 11 game-winners) and 79 points.  With the 22-year-old hitting restricted free agency for the first time this summer, he’s in line for a significant raise compared to his rookie deal.

Nill undoubtedly would like to sign Robertson to a long-term contract that buys out a few UFA-eligible seasons but that will be a tough task even with nearly $20MM in cap space simply because of who else needs to sign.  A long-term contract could jump into the $9MM range based on recent comparables including Minnesota’s Kirill Kaprizov (five years, $45MM) which would eat up about half of their cap space with that one and could prohibit them from keeping Klingberg in the fold or finding a similar replacement.  On top of that, Nill acknowledged earlier this month that the anticipated jump in the Upper Limit of the cap a couple of years from now could push prominent RFAs like Robertson into preferring a short-term deal.

With that in mind, a bridge contract, one that could free up enough cap room to try to take care of another pending free agent, seems like the probable outcome.  But even that will carry a high price tag.  Recent comparable players would put a deal for him in the $7MM range so the net savings compared to a long-term deal would be in the $2MM range.  With those deals, teams can get creative with the salary structure to yield a higher qualifying offer at its expiration which is something Robertson’s camp would likely push for if they go this route.  Worth noting, Robertson does not have arbitration eligibility and we’ve seen several in his situation wait until closer to training camp to put pen to paper on a contract.

Sign A Goalie Tandem

Another prominent restricted free agent this summer is goaltender Jake Oettinger.  He actually started this season in the minors but did so well after being recalled that he never went back.  The 23-year-old wound up posting a 2.53 GAA along with a .914 SV% in 48 games during the regular season and then was stellar in seven playoff contests, nearly helping them to get past Calgary despite facing an average of just over 40 shots per game.

This negotiation has the potential to be a bit of a longer one.  Part of that will be due to a lack of experience at the NHL level as Oettinger has just 77 regular season games under his belt.  Not a lot of goalies get pricey long-term deals with that limited experience.  Even if they do want to work out something on a longer-term basis, their hands will largely be tied with what happens with Klingberg’s new deal or replacement as well as Robertson’s new deals.  If both receive long-term expensive pacts, it’s going to force their hand into a short-term bridge agreement.  As Robertson’s case could take a while, that could drag Oettinger’s discussions out accordingly.

There’s also the matter of figuring out their backup goalie.  Braden Holtby had a nice bounce-back year with his best numbers since 2016-17 and while he’s not going to be considered as a top starter this summer, he could command a decent raise on the $2MM he made this season on a multi-year agreement.  Dallas might not be able to afford that.  Scott Wedgewood bounced around with three different teams this season but did well enough to be in the mix for a team that’s looking to save some money on their backup.  A one-way deal around the $1MM mark should be doable for him, giving him some rare job security in the process.

The Stars do still have Anton Khudobin under contract but after a year filled with injuries and struggles, they’ll undoubtedly be looking to get out of the final year and $3.33MM of his deal so he probably won’t be in their plans so they’ll need to sign both ends of their tandem for next season.

Hintz Extension Talks

While the first three parts of this are the biggest priority for Nill, he’s also expected to look into what a contract extension would cost for forward Roope Hintz.  Very quietly over the last couple of years, the 25-year-old has emerged as a viable top center and with a cap hit on his bridge deal of $3.25MM, Hintz has become one of the biggest bargains in the NHL.

That will change in the near future.  Hintz will enter the final season of his contract once the new league year begins on July 13th which means he’ll be eligible to sign an extension at that time.  Hintz had 37 goals and 35 assists this past season, good for career-highs in both categories but with DeBoer expected to play a more attack-oriented style, it’s reasonable to expect that Hintz could set new benchmarks in 2022-23.  If that happens, the price tag will only go up.

Hintz will only have one RFA-eligible year remaining when his current deal expires so, unlike Robertson or Oettinger, there isn’t an option to do a short-term contract to massage their cap situation.  If they can’t agree on a long-term deal, it’s possible that Hintz files for arbitration and takes a one-year award that takes him to the open market.  A long-term contract should eclipse the $7MM mark and their ability to offer such a deal may very well be determinant on what contracts Robertson and Oettinger wind up with.  When it comes to their summer spending and planning, everything is intertwined and this file, even though it doesn’t technically come up for another year, is no exception.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

PHR Mailbag: Wild, Bruins, Devils’ Draft Pick, DeBrincat, Predators, Hockey Trades, Rangers, Coyotes, Forsberg

at CDT | by 9 Comments

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Boston’s offseason, discussing which route is the best to take for Nashville, candidates for ‘hockey’ trades, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in either last weekend’s mailbag or Saturday’s Detroit-specific column.

Zakis: Who will be the Wild’s primary goalie for the ’22-’23 season?

I’m going to say Cam Talbot.  While their Plan A is to re-sign Marc-Andre Fleury, with everything else they have to navigate this summer, I’m leery that they’ll be able to do so unless Fleury takes below his market value to stay there.  I expect Minnesota will have to be a bit more frugal while looking for their second netminder.  While they’re probably not going to wind up with a low-end, cheap second-stringer, I have a hard time thinking that second goalie will play more than Talbot, barring injury.

Assuming that happens, Talbot should check in around 50-55 starts, a mark he’d have reached this season had it not been for Fleury’s acquisition back at the trade deadline.  Getting that many starts will be important for him as well since the 34-year-old will be an unrestricted free agent in the 2023 offseason and playing a number one workload would certainly help his cause next summer on the open market.

Nha Trang: I’d ask “What the hell were the Bruins thinking?” except that everyone in hockey knows the answer.

MoneyBallJustWorks: Thoughts on Sweeney being canned and ending up in Vegas?

BOSsports21: Piggybacking off a couple B’s questions already – the Bruins need a teardown and rebuild. It’s not something B’s fans want to hear, but they have only a couple of good prospects and no cap room. They weren’t really a Cup contender this past year and now they want to bring in a younger coach. If you’re the GM, do you sell off as much as you can to obtain assets? I feel Pastrnak and Marchand will not be the same without Bergeron if he retires. Even if he comes back, it’ll probably only be for a year. Might as well get good value for Pastrnak and Marchand to re-stock the bare cupboard. Thoughts?

Let’s put some Boston questions together.  GM Don Sweeney’s decision to part ways with Bruce Cassidy certainly raised some eyebrows and the fact that several teams immediately pursued him indicates that his perception around the league is much more positive than it was in Boston’s front office.  Obviously, they felt the playoff underperformance was cause for concern and there has been plenty of speculation about other factors but that’s simply speculation.

There’s a good chance that whoever Sweeney hires will be his last hire as Boston’s head coach.  He’s one of the longer-tenured general managers in the league but most are only able to make a couple of coaching changes before they’re heading out the door.  As for joining Vegas when that happens, never say never, even with what I suspect was a sarcastic question.  Vegas isn’t exactly known for patience in the early going and if they struggle over the next year or two, there could be front office changes following soon after.

Boston has operated as a team that isn’t likely to rebuild, especially with the moves they’ve made in the last few years.  They don’t give Taylor Hall a four-year deal and then acquire and extend Hampus Lindholm with an eye on rebuilding.  With the injuries they’ll be dealing with to start next season, a short-term step back was at least justifiable.  But with Patrice Bergeron now expected to return, that idea goes out the window; he’s not coming back to help ease the team through a short-term teardown.  That takes the idea of potentially trading Pastrnak and Marchand (the latter of which was probably unlikely to happen anyway) off the table.

W H Twittle: If so, could a trade be built on the basis of Pastrnak for NJ’s 2022 #2 draft pick? Obviously, NJ would need to add a couple of A pieces… that may include their 2023 1st round pick and an A prospect?

Let’s get another Boston one in here.  No, I don’t believe David Pastrnak for that second selection is a viable option for either side.  But as I just noted, the Bruins aren’t bringing Bergeron back to then turn around and start selling off key players.  If that was the route they were taking, Bergeron would be hanging up his skates.  If things don’t go well during the season, that could very well change closer to the trade deadline but this type of trade certainly won’t be on the table at that time.

Moving that second pick (and potentially other assets) for Pastrnak makes little sense for the Devils either.  If they’re going to move a premium draft pick, it will be for someone in the prime of their career that has several years of team control left (either through being under contract or club control).  They’re not moving that pick for a rental player that still probably doesn’t get them into the playoffs next season.  And if I’m Pastrnak, with all due respect to New Jersey, I’m not passing up a chance at testing the market to sign a long-term contract with them.

I think people are getting a little too hyped up about the idea of New Jersey moving this draft pick.  They’re not shopping the it, they’re simply listening to offers and coming up with a list of players that could make sense to trade for that fit their parameters.  Those parameters would involve club control and long-term salary cap planning, among other elements.  I don’t think there would be more than four or five players league-wide on that list.  Of those, how many will actually be available to move?  Maybe two?  If GM Tom Fitzgerald doesn’t get the perfect (and I mean perfect, not a ‘close enough’ scenario) offer, they’ll happily keep that pick.  There are more ways to get an impact player than by trading a high lottery selection.

Johnny Z: Some have the Flyers being interested in acquiring DeBrincat, what would that look like?

While I, like many, expect Philadelphia to shake things up in terms of their core forwards, I don’t think it’d be for Alex DeBrincat.  He’s under the old rule for qualifying offers so he’ll be owed a minimum of $9MM for his qualifier in 2023 although if he has another year like this one, he’ll be getting more than that.  That’s going to be tough to fit into their salary structure.

Then there’s the acquisition cost.  Chicago would undoubtedly want the fifth-overall pick and with the situation the Flyers are in, moving that pick wouldn’t be wise.  That’s their chance to get an impact, cost-controllable player to work into the lineup a couple of years from now to help offset some of their more bloated veteran deals.  I know they’re in win-now mode, but moving that pick isn’t a good idea.

There needs to be a cap element to the deal to help offset DeBrincat’s current $6.4MM AAV.  That could be James van Riemsdyk but if the Blackhawks don’t want to take that contract back, Oskar Lindblom’s $3MM deal could be an option.  Another first-round pick (their own in 2023) would need to be in there.  I could see Chicago asking about someone like Morgan Frost or Owen Tippett, former first-rounders that haven’t lit it up just yet.  There would probably be another prospect in there as well.  That’s a big package for a non-playoff team to pay, especially since DeBrincat alone probably doesn’t get them back to the playoffs.

If I’m GM Chuck Fletcher, I’d rather pay a quality pick or prospect to offload van Riemsdyk’s deal without taking money back and then take a serious run at Johnny Gaudreau in free agency.  If they did that and Gaudreau agreed to sign, they’d get a top-line winger without giving up a lot of their cost-controllable future.  But if I was Fletcher, I wouldn’t have made the Rasmus Ristolainen trade last summer either so even if I don’t think it’s a good idea, he might be thinking differently.

GBear: It’s July and Gbear has won the lottery and bought the Preds and fired David Poile. I’m bringing in Brian La Rose to interview for the vacant GM position. What moves would you make this offseason and who are you taking with the #17 pick of the draft? :)

Congrats on the big lottery win that allows you to swoop in and outbid Bill Haslam for the team.  Before I can answer though, my question to you is what’s my mandate?  Do I have the ability to do what I think is best or do you want some playoff revenue?  The two options aren’t the same.

Assuming you give me the ability to tear it down, that’s what I’d be looking to do.  I don’t think adding a piece or two to this core is going to vault them into contender status.  The Predators can keep treading water or they can take a step back and try to reload.  I’d look to leverage Matt Duchene’s season as a way to get out of his contract and take a cheaper one back.  That scenario was far-fetched last summer but a 43-goal season changes things.  Someone’s going to be desperate for a center later in the offseason and there’s an opportunity to strike.  I don’t see that being feasible for Ryan Johansen though.

I wouldn’t re-sign Filip Forsberg in that scenario and instead would use the cap space to take on a player from somewhere else, adding picks or prospects for doing so as Arizona has done recently.  Ideally, said player then would be flipped with retention at the deadline for another pick or prospect.  I’d make Mattias Ekholm available and try to leverage the lack of impact left-shot defenders available in free agency into a significant futures-based return.  With teams looking for a starting goalie, Juuse Saros could be had for a significant return; I’d be comfortable with some veteran buffers for a couple of years until Yaroslav Askarov is NHL-ready.  I’d aim for a two-year or three-year retooling so Roman Josi would stick around.  I’d want to see more minutes for Tanner Jeannot, Philip Tomasino, Eeli Tolvanen, and Alexandre Carrier to see if they’re part of the long-term plans so any cap dumps I’d pick up would be for lower roles on the roster.  Philippe Myers gets flipped for whatever the best offer is with the acquiring team getting a cap credit (a move that should be made in both win-now and sell-now scenarios).  Since this answer can’t go on forever, that’s a very quick overview of what my plan would be.

Now, if you’re telling me you want early playoff revenues, then it’s a much different approach.  Filip Forsberg gets his eight years around $8MM.  I’d target Vegas to try to add Nicolas Roy, giving the Preds a third center with some upside.  He’s a strong offer sheet target with their cap situation so this could be a chance to add to the position without the return being super high.  Andre Burakovsky would be a target to add on the wing to provide a two-way element while still boosting the scoring potential of the second line, shifting some of those younger players onto the third line to really balance out the attack.

On defense, I’d like someone like Josh Manson to shore up the back end but so would a lot of other teams.  I’d go into the upper $4MM range for his services which might not be enough to get it done.  Ideally, a physical shutdown defender that can take some pressure off the younger players and deepen the back end is the target.

The only reason there’s enough cap space to do all of this is the goaltending.  I’d use Connor Ingram as the backup for Saros over.  I think he has legitimate NHL upside and sneaking him through waivers isn’t going to happen.  His $758K cap hit provides some extra cap flexibility to upgrade an extra spot on the roster and I’d rather put money towards an every-game player over someone who probably is only going to play 20-25 times since there isn’t a big difference between Ingram and a $2MM to $3MM backup.  Those additions should be enough to keep the Preds in the playoff hunt for the next couple of years and perhaps even win a round and from there, you never know what can happen.

It’s hard to forecast who’s going to be available with the 17th pick but someone like Denton Mateychuk fits as someone in that range.  He’s a bit undersized but is a good offensive defenseman and adding someone to take some pressure off Josi when he slows down would help.  A center would be preferable though given the state of their prospect pool so Marco Kasper would also be high on my list.  He hasn’t looked out of place in the SHL and there’s a good defensive floor to work with.  I think there’s second-line upside with the offensive and a two-way top-six center would be a nice addition in the middle of the first round.

Read more

Free Agent Focus: Los Angeles Kings

at CDT | by 9 Comments

Free agency is now less than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Kings.

Key Restricted Free Agents:

F Brendan Lemieux – After being traded three times in his career, first from the Buffalo Sabres to the Winnipeg Jets, then to the New York Rangers, and finally to the Kings, the known agitator seems to have finally settled in with Los Angeles in a role that fits him. Despite being out of playoff contention in 2020-21, the Kings made the move to acquire Lemieux from the Rangers ahead of the trade deadline, using him to protect their young players and get under the skin of their opponents. Not necessarily known for his scoring, Lemieux has just 60 points in 230 career games, 13 points and 50 games coming this past season, but does carry 410 career penalty minutes, 97 of which came in 2021-22. Coming off a two-year deal that carried a $1.55MM AAV, Lemieux’s next contract may not look much different, but with what he’s brought to the Kings, he presumably won’t have to worry much about getting another NHL deal.

F Adrian Kempe – Besides finding a way to help the organization take the next step in its accelerated rebuild, perhaps the biggest agenda item for Kings’ GM Rob Blake this offseason will be a new contract for the All Star forward. Kempe, who will turn 26 in September, had a sensational breakout season for Los Angeles, finding the back of the net 35 times, adding 19 assists for 54 points in 78 games. Before his breakout, Kempe was most likely going to see a raise over the $2MM AAV he carried the past three seasons, given his average of 31 points per 82 games over the life of that contract. However, by eclipsing that average point total just in goals scored this season, being relatively close to UFA status, and his arbitration eligibility, Kempe could see a major bump in salary this offseason, especially if the Kings are looking at a long-term agreement.

D Sean Durzi – Originally a second-round pick of the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2018 and later traded for defenseman Jake Muzzin, Durzi took some time to make it to the NHL, but has now established himself as a piece of the Kings future on the blueline. The 23-year-old made his NHL debut on November 24th against the team that drafted him, skating in all of the Kings’ final 64 games, recording 27 points and averaging 19:36 in time-on-ice, good for sixth amongst Kings’ skaters. Given his experience, Durzi isn’t yet arbitration eligible, but he could still wind up with a rather significant contract extension due to his age and his emergence as a building block in Los Angeles.

Other RFA’s: F Jaret Anderson-Dolan, F Lias Andersson, F Carl Grundstrom, F Johan Sodergran, F Vladimir Tkachev, F Gabriel Vilardi, D Frederic Allard, D Michael Anderson, G Matt Villalta

Key Unrestricted Free Agents:

F Andreas Athanasiou – The soon-to-be 28-year-old had the unfortunate luck of dealing with injuries throughout his walk-year, playing in just 28 games this season. On the bright side for Athanasiou, he did manage 17 points in that span, the second-highest points-per-game total of his career. After being allowed to leave the Edmonton Oilers following the 2019-20 season, Athanasiou signed a one-year, $1.2MM contract for the shortened 2020-21 season, where he impressed with 23 points n 47 games, earning a one-year, $2.7MM contract for this season. Athanasiou may have been due a higher salary and perhaps additional term this time around, but given his injury issues this season, that may not be the case. Still, given his production when he is in the lineup, the Kings could realistically bring Athanasiou back, and supplement his spot in the lineup with some of their younger players if the injuries persist.

D Alexander Edler – Once seen as a lifetime member of the Vancouver Canucks, Edler wasn’t brought back to Vancouver after the 2020-21 season and ultimately signed a one-year contract worth $3.5MM with Los Angeles. Edler had a solid bounce-back season with the Kings, albeit in limited action, recording 19 points in 41 games, including an impressive plus-18 rating. The 36-year-old defenseman probably won’t be offered the career-high $6MM AAV he carried in 2019-20 and 2020-21, but did show this season that he absolutely still belongs in the NHL if he wants to stay. What Edler chooses to do is still up in the air, as he may not want to venture too far from the west coast where he has spent his entire NHL career, but options may be more limited for an older defenseman who could command at least $3.5MM next year, if not more.

D Olli Maatta – Not the player he was when he burst onto the scene with the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2013-14, Maatta has revived his career to an extent, showing he can be a reliable player on an NHL team. Though recording just eight points in 60 games with the Kings this season, Maatta did show promise with his plus-17 rating in 18:17 of average time-on-ice. The six-year, $24.5MM contract he just finished is likely not something he will find as a UFA this offseason, but Maatta should be an intriguing option for a number of teams, now marketed as a steady veteran defenseman.

Other UFA’s: F Martin Frk, D Nelson Nogier, D Troy Stecher, D Austin Strand, D Christian Wolanin, G Garret Sparks

Projected Cap Space:

Los Angeles projects to have just under $20MM in cap space this offseason, $19.863MM to be exact, with only a few semi-expensive moves to make. For one, they will have to give Kempe his predictably large raise and while they may be able to bring Durzi back on a team-friendly cap hit, they may be better off inking the defenseman long-term given his age, but that may create a larger cap hit than necessary for next season. Although $20MM may seem a bit low for a team that is still coming off of a rebuild, when factoring in the fact that the Kings have a bulk of their core signed for multiple seasons, including Anze Kopitar, Phillip Danault, and Drew Doughty who are all already signed long-term, the number feels more understandable and workable.

With the remaining space, the King will likely look to add a few pieces to help round out a team that wasn’t necessarily expected to make the playoffs this season, let alone take the Oilers to seven games in the first round, especially considering they got just 39 games total from Doughty, a franchise cornerstone. If the organization wants to create additional cap space, they could look to trade goaltender Jonathan Quick, who carries a $5.8MM cap hit next season, and move onto Calvin Petersen full-time.

Free Agent Focus: Minnesota Wild

at CDT | by 6 Comments

Free agency is now less than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Wild.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Kevin Fiala — Fiala might be the most high-profile casualty of GM Bill Guerin’s decision to buy out both Ryan Suter and Zach Parise last offseason. The Wild are facing a $6.3MM cap penalty from each of Parise and Suter’s buyouts for next season, and that figure rises to $7.3MM for the next two seasons after 2022-23. So, that has meant that the Wild have essentially acknowledged their reality with Fiala, that they can’t afford the long-term deal he could get from elsewhere and that the best option for both the team and player is a trade this offseason. So, for the Wild, Fiala’s restricted free agency isn’t about what his next contract will look like but is instead about what the return for him will be in a trade. Fiala had 85 points in 82 games this past year and drove the Wild’s second line. Fiala will face questions about his game, namely regarding his playoff woes, as he had only one playoff goal over the past two seasons. Additionally, there is the fair question of how a Fiala-led line would produce outside of an environment where they have another top line to absorb the opposing team’s toughest defensive matchups, as the Kirill Kaprizov line did in Minnesota. But even with those questions, Fiala is in line to be paid this summer, especially when one considers the additional leverage he will hold over any team that acquires him via trade.

D Jacob Middleton — The Wild made a slew of trade deadline additions in order to bolster their squad, and one of their lower-profile pickups was acquiring Middleton from the San Jose Sharks. The Wild surrendered goalie Kaapo Kahkonen in the deal, someone who was once considered to be the Wild’s “goalie of the future.” Guerin’s willingness to part with Kahkonen to get Middleton is an indication of how firmly he believed in Middleton’s fit in Minnesota. Middleton, 26, was brought to the Wild because of his physicality and overall defensive game. He averaged just under 18 minutes per night as a member of the Wild and also featured on their penalty kill. The Wild clearly like what Middleton brings, meaning an extension with some term attached can’t be ruled out. The presence of the buyouts obviously complicates things, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Middleton gets a contract between $2MM-3MM to stay in Minnesota, contracts similar to the ones other defense-first blueliners such as Tucker Poolman, Dylan DeMelo and Derek Forbort received.

Other RFA’s: F Mitchell Chaffee, F Nick Swaney, D Fedor Gordeev, G Dereck Baribeau

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

G Marc-Andre Fleury — The Wild acquired the 2021 Vezina Trophy winner at the trade deadline and alternated between him and Cam Talbot for the rest of 2021-22. The Wild are interested in a return for that tandem, but Fleury may be able to earn a larger contract from elsewhere. Fleury did not play to Vezina Trophy form last year, but he was still solid, especially after his trade to the Wild. He didn’t have a great playoffs, but few on the Wild did, and Fleury is at the point in his career where a small dip in performance isn’t likely to tank his earning potential anyway. Fleury is still widely viewed as a starting-caliber goalie, so while he’ll turn 38 later this year a retirement doesn’t seem to be in the cards just yet. What Fleury makes on the open market this offseason will likely depend on if he prioritizes fit over cost on his next contract and therefore whether he is willing to take a smaller contract in order to sign with the team he prefers.

F Nicolas Deslauriers — While the NHL is about speed and skill more than ever before, there is still room in the league for players like Deslauriers and his trip to unrestricted free agency will likely reflect that. The Wild acquired Deslauriers near the deadline to add some grit to their team, and Deslauriers did just that. He didn’t do very much else, with only three goals and zero assists in his 25 total games with the Wild, but that’s what’s about expected from Deslauriers, given that he has only 85 points in over 500 career games. Some fans might scoff at the idea of their team bringing Deslauriers in as a free agent, but he’s clearly valued by the league’s decision-makers and liked by his coaches. A return to Minnesota is definitely possible, although they could prefer to divert as many cap dollars as possible to scoring help in order to compensate for the expected loss of Fiala, which would then push Deslauriers out.

F Nick Bjugstad — Bjugstad, a Minneapolis native, is no longer the player that scored nearly 50 points on Aleksander Barkov’s wing in Florida. Major injury woes have taken their toll on Bjugstad’s play, and since scoring 49 points in 2017-18 Bjugstad hasn’t crossed the 20-point mark since. In Minnesota, Bjugstad has stabilized his career and become a semi-regular face in the Wild’s bottom-six. He didn’t play well enough this past year to earn a spot in the Wild’s postseason lineup, and despite his bottom-six role he has not featured on the Wild’s penalty kill. Bjugstad played on a $900k cap hit last season and, if Minnesota is interested, should be available to them at a similar number for next season.

Other UFA’s: D Jordie Benn, F Brandon Baddock, F Kyle Rau, F Nolan Stevens, F Dominic Turgeon, D Jon Lizotte, G Zane McIntyre

Projected Salary Cap Space

This is the area where the Wild face their greatest challenge. The previously mentioned buyouts of Suter and Parise have left Guerin and the Wild’s front office operating with a significantly lower effective salary cap than other clubs. The buyouts will cost the team nearly $13MM in cap space this offseason and $15MM for the next two after this summer. As a result, the Wild have only $6.5MM in projected cap space this summer. Trading defensemen with only one year left on their deals such as Dmitry Kulikov or even Matt Dumba could give them some more room, but whatever way you cut it the Wild will find it difficult to make major additions in the next few offseasons without some real creativity involved.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Pittsburgh Penguins

at CDT | by 11 Comments

With the offseason in full swing aside from the two teams in the Stanley Cup Final, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Penguins.

Despite some key injuries in the playoffs, the Penguins nearly got past the Rangers in the opening round which gave GM Ron Hextall a tough choice to either run it back with this same core with Sidney Crosby still a high-end center or to start a rebuilding phase.  Considering their stated intention is to keep their win-now window open, their summer checklist reflects that.

Get Goaltending Stability

Tristan Jarry was once viewed as Pittsburgh’s goalie of the future following a stellar junior career.  When Matt Murray was traded to Ottawa two drafts ago, he became their goalie of the present.  However, it’s now fair to wonder whether or not he’s their goalie of the future beyond next season.  The 27-year-old is coming off a strong regular season that saw him post a GAA of 2.49 and a.919 SV% but 159 games into his NHL career, there are still some questions about whether or not he should be their long-term starter.  If management is sold on Jarry, then working out a long-term extension with an AAV starting with a five would be worthwhile and that move can be made as of July 13th.

But what if they don’t feel that way or want to see what 2022-23 brings before making that type of commitment?  That’s when things start to get a bit dicey.  There is no Jarry-like prospect in the minors that’s a year or two away from being NHL-ready.  There isn’t even an NHL-caliber backup under contract with Casey DeSmith set to become an unrestricted free agent this summer and journeyman Louis Domingue (their starter for most of the playoffs) also hitting the open market.  In an ideal world, they would add a quality backup on a multi-year deal and give themselves a short-term upgrade at that second spot and a bit of longer-term stability.

Of course, an ideal world implies that they have the cap space to do this and accomplish their other summer objectives.  As we’ll get to shortly, the only way something like this could happen is if things don’t go well on those other fronts.  A short-term low-cost deal might be all they can afford and if they head into next season with Jarry on an expiring deal and a short-term backup, that’s not an ideal situation to have for a very important position.

Keep Or Replace Veteran Stars

Now, let’s get to the obvious.  Right now, Pittsburgh has over $23MM in cap space which sounds wonderful without context.  That context is that two of their long-time veteran stars, center Evgeni Malkin and defenseman Kris Letang, will become unrestricted free agents next month.  Accordingly, most (if not all) of their offseason planning will revolve around this duo in terms of trying to keep them or finding a way to replace them.

When healthy, Malkin remains a high-end NHL center and has averaged less than a point per game just once in the last decade.  However, there’s one other key thing that has happened just once in the last decade and that’s the 36-year-old playing at least 70 games in a season.  Malkin has had long run-ins with injury trouble and this past season was no exception which really complicates things from a valuation standpoint.  When Malkin is in the lineup and producing at a point-per-game rate, his market value isn’t that far off from the $9.5MM AAV of his soon-to-expire contract.  But since he can’t stay in the lineup consistently, it’s also a huge risk to give him that type of money.  The only way the Penguins can make part of his pay based on staying healthy is with a one-year deal and Malkin has no reason to accept that as he can likely land a three-year or four-year commitment next month.  While a pay cut is likely, it probably won’t be a substantial one.

Then there’s Letang.  Over the last four seasons, only three blueliners have more points than the 35-year-old.  The low-end in terms of AAV for those three players is $7.875MM (Victor Hedman who left money on the table to stay in Tampa Bay) and the high end is $9.059MM (Nashville’s Roman Josi).  You can be sure that Letang’s representatives will be pointing that out in negotiations.  Letang isn’t a stalwart defensive defender but he has killed penalties for the Penguins and while he has had injury issues of his own in the past, he has been healthier in recent years.  While Pittsburgh would love to try to get Letang for less than his expiring $7.25MM cap hit, he could very easily get more if he gets to the open market.  The length of the contract is a priority though so if the Penguins are willing to go with a longer deal than they might prefer, it should yield a lower AAV than he’d get otherwise.

Both players have been franchise stalwarts for the last 16 years but with everything else that Hextall needs to go this summer, it will be difficult to keep (or replace) both at market value and still have money left to fill their other needs.  But with how important those two are, they’re certainly going to try to find a way to make it work.

Create Cap Flexibility

If Hextall is going to be able to keep both of his veteran stars, keep some of the other notable pending UFAs (including wingers Rickard Rakell and Evan Rodrigues), find a quality backup goalie, and leave some wiggle room for in-season movement, something has to give.  Some tough decisions are going to need to be made on some impact players.

One of those is winger Kasperi Kapanen.  The team has twice used a first-round pick on him, first to draft him and then another to re-acquire him back in 2020 but the return on their reinvestment wasn’t great in 2021-22.  After an impressive shortened campaign, the 25-year-old struggled this past season, notching just 11 goals and 21 assists in 32 games while chipping in with three assists in their seven-game loss to the Rangers.  That’s not a terrible return on a $3.2MM cap hit but it’s safe to say they were hoping for more.  If they tender him a qualifying offer this summer (technically speaking, that offer is only worth $840K based on the structure of his expiring deal), Kapanen will be arbitration-eligible where his prior years could push his value closer to $4MM which is below the walkaway threshold.  His trade value won’t be overly high because of this situation so a non-tender is a definite possibility.  While that would create some extra flexibility, it’d also create another impact roster spot to be filled.

Then there’s Jason Zucker, another winger.  Former Penguins GM Jim Rutherford paid a sizable price to bring him in as well but he hasn’t been able to play at the level he did with Minnesota.  When he has been healthy (and that has been a struggle the last couple of seasons), he has been more of a secondary producer which isn’t great for someone with a $5.5MM price tag.  A buyout would give them a little less than $3.5MM in cap space for next season while adding $1.733MM to 2023-24’s cap but also would create another spot to fill.  Alternatively, a trade with some retention that yields less relief next season but carries no penalty for the following year is an option while they could also add a draft pick or prospect to try to get a team to take the contract in full.  None of these are desirable but carrying him on the books next season could cost them the ability to retain a more impactful player.

There are also some candidates to move on the back end.  Marcus Pettersson hasn’t lived up to his inflated contract, one that carries an AAV of just over $4MM for three more years.  Flipping him for someone that makes less money is something that can be considered.  John Marino ($4.4MM for five more years) has been in trade speculation going back to during the season and a similar idea could be done with him, especially if they’re able to bring Letang back.   It’s unlikely they can clear the full contracts but moving one of them could give them a little more financial flexibility.  Even with $23MM in cap room for the time being, the Penguins certainly are going to need all the financial flexibility they can get.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

PHR Mailbag: Detroit Red Wings Edition

at CDT | by 7 Comments

There were several questions about the Red Wings in our latest callout for questions for the PHR Mailbag.  Rather than try to condense them to fit them within a full mailbag, let’s examine them in a bit more detail in a Detroit-specific piece.  The rest of the mailbag will run on Sunday.

pawdog13: What have you heard about the Red Wings’ coaching search? Crickets everywhere!

@jamara23732: Who do you believe the Red Wings will hire as head coach?

The best way to describe Detroit’s coaching search thus far is that it’s thorough.  GM Steve Yzerman is known to be patient and he’s turning over every rock while considering both experienced and first-time options.  Barry Trotz interviewed for the opening back in May but Trotz basically interviewed with every team that has a coaching vacancy and then decided to take next season off.  David Quinn, the former Rangers head coach, has also been interviewed.  He’s someone that has a lot of experience working with younger players and with the Red Wings having a younger roster, that could be appealing.  They also interviewed Bruce Cassidy but clearly, that one isn’t happening as he’s now with Vegas.

Speculatively, I think part of their hold up is that Yzerman wants to have a conversation with Derek Lalonde, an assistant with the Lightning.  Yzerman was still with Tampa Bay when Lalonde joined them so he will have some familiarity and considering what Tampa Bay has done since then, he has only helped boost his stock since then.  Detroit might not be the only team waiting for the Stanley Cup Final to end to have a conversation with Lalonde.

As for who I think they’ll hire, I’ve covered that one in a prior mailbag but I’ll mention it here again in Jim Montgomery.  Dallas was doing well under his tutelage before his departure so it’s not as if he’s a first-time bench boss.  He also has a track record of working with younger players from his days in college.  He’s also someone that fits both types of coaching options.  He could be the long-term solution behind the bench which would be great for them but he could also be a transitional coach, one that helps elevate the stock and development of certain players but might not be the right fit in the end.  Either option would be a win for them at this stage.  In reality, your guess is as good as mine with the lack of information out there about their search but Montgomery would be my pick.

gowings2008: Any idea who the Red Wings may target in free agency? Based on the direction the team is headed, I think adding a player like Andre Burakovsky could make sense.

@jamara23732: What free agents do you see the Red Wings pursuing when free agency starts?

I don’t expect Detroit to necessarily be shopping at the top end of the market yet.  Are they ready to flip the switch and move to win-now mode?  They’re getting closer to that point but I don’t think it’ll be this summer.  That should keep them out of the bidding wars for the top players.

Looking at their depth chart, their center situation stands out.  Dylan Larkin is in place although he only has one yet left on his contract.  After that, there are a lot of question marks.  Pius Suter isn’t a true top-six option and while Michael Rasmussen has shown some improvement, he fits much better on the third line than the second.  Joe Veleno has similar upside.  Oskar Sundqvist, acquired at the trade deadline, is also a bottom-sixer.  There’s a definite need for a top-six center.

Vincent Trocheck is someone I expect them to take a serious run at.  He turns 29 next month so he should still have several good seasons ahead of him.  He’s not going to push to be a top pivot – that spot is still Larkin’s – but he’d allow Rasmussen and Veleno to slot into the last two center spots and give them a very stable group of middlemen.  Good teams need good center depth and Trocheck would give them exactly that.  If that doesn’t happen, they might inquire on Andrew Copp and Ryan Strome, similar-aged players that would give them some stability although the upside isn’t as great.  I’d be more worried about adding middlemen than wingers at this point so while Burakovsky would certainly help, he shouldn’t be their top priority either.

The left side of their back end is another sizable hole but that will be difficult to fill in free agency as the impact rearguards are righties.  I’ve mused in the past about them taking a look at someone like John Klingberg which would free them up to trade Filip Hronek for a lefty that better fits their needs.  That might be their best shot at adding an impact left-side defender, actually.  Simon Edvinsson will see some time next season but their free agent target on that side might be a veteran like Ian Cole, someone that can play on the third pairing and log some tough minutes on the penalty kill.  Keeping Marc Staal is another option.  Alexander Edler would be a tier a bit above that but that’s as good as I think they can do on the free agent front on that side of their back end.

On the trade front, if they keep Hronek and don’t add an impact righty, I could see them inquiring about Alec Martinez, a Michigan native.  Vegas still needs to clear money and since they played without him for a lot of this past season, they know they can manage without him if need be.  With two years left on his contract, he’d be an ideal bridge veteran to work with Edvinsson as well.

Johnny Z: Predict the unpredictable: What is Stevie Y’s big move this summer? Example: What LD vet does he find? Will he bolster the C position and with who? Does he get Larkin extended under $9M? What veteran goalie does he get?

The defense and center spots were covered above and I’ll lean into my Klingberg prediction as their big move with Hronek, who has two years left at an affordable $4.4MM price tag, being flipped for a left-shot defender that’s signed or under team control for at least two more years.

As for Larkin, I do think a long-term extension will get done this summer.  He stated at the end of the season that he couldn’t see himself playing elsewhere and then changed agents with the belief being that talks on a new deal will start soon.  Unless Yzerman was to low-ball his captain, something should get done.

I’m fairly confident it will be under $9MM per as well.  Larkin has never been a point-per-game player and has only come close to that mark twice.  In that sense, he’s not a true top center so he shouldn’t be expecting to be paid as such.  There are some recent comparables to work off of as well – Mika Zibanejad will get $8.5MM from the Rangers next year, Tomas Hertl is a little over $8MM from San Jose, and Sean Couturier checks in at $7.75MM.  Is Larkin’s track record better than those players?  He’d have a hard time making that case.  He’s younger so there will be an expectation of more in-prime years that should push his AAV into that range instead of being below it but I’d be quite surprised if his next price tag came in above Zibanejad’s $8.5MM.

Now, let’s look at the goaltending situation.  I don’t think Jussi Olkinuora is the intended backup although I do like that signing to see if he is indeed a late bloomer.  He’ll partner up with Sebastian Cossa in Grand Rapids and it’s his trajectory that Yzerman will need to be mindful of.  Yes, he’s a promising prospect but most goalies will need a few years before being NHL-ready.  With Alex Nedeljkovic’s deal set to expire next summer, they need someone on a multi-year deal.

This isn’t a great group of veterans to work with so I expect their primary targets to be Ville Husso and Jack Campbell.  Both players don’t have the type of clout to command a long-term contract but something in the three-year range is where they should fall.  That lines up with Cossa’s timeline in the sense that Husso or Campbell would be expiring when Cossa is ready.  At that point, they can either walk or be extended to partner up with him.  My pick would be one of those two.

If they go elsewhere, I would be looking towards Washington and one of their pending RFAs.  If they want a proven veteran, one of Ilya Samsonov or Vitek Vanecek would be on the move and both of those netminders would be candidates for the medium-term deals I’m suggesting they’ll want to give to Husso or Campbell.  They need some stability at the position and getting that should be near the top of Yzerman’s to-do list this summer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Focus: Montreal Canadiens

at CDT | by 3 Comments

Free agency is now less than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Canadiens.

Key Restricted Free Agents

G Sam Montembeault — Montembeault was forced into a breakout season in 2021-22 after injuries wreaked havoc on the Montreal crease. Claimed off waivers from the Florida Panthers at the beginning of the season, the idea was for Montembeault to serve as a third-string backup option to relieve the stress on the crease. With starter Carey Price missing most of the season, though, and backup Jake Allen battling multiple injuries throughout the year, the 25-year-old Quebec native started 30 games and made eight appearances in relief, posting an 8-18-6 record, .891 save percentage, 3.77 goals-against average, and one shutout. He struggled with consistency under his increased workload, usually being one of the biggest reasons Montreal won or lost. Despite the poor performance, though, he did pretty much what you’d expect a third-string option to do in that situation. Montembeault will almost certainly be issued a qualifying offer and retained, considering that Allen remains the only healthy netminder under contract for next season.

D Alexander Romanov — Montreal’s 38th overall selection in the 2018 draft continues to track better than expected. While the scoring hasn’t been there for Romanov just yet, he was drafted for his defensive upside, and he’s beginning to deliver. Thrust into a top-four role this season in Shea Weber’s absence, Romanov provided good defensive results, albeit in a slightly sheltered role. He’ll likely increase his point totals somewhat from his 13 points in 79 games in 2021-22 under a surely more gifted team next season, tracking to be an important complementary defender in Montreal for years to come. Depending on how confident Montreal is in his development, it wouldn’t be too surprising to see them try to lock Romanov in longer-term this offseason to ensure some lasting value.

F Rem Pitlick — One of the best waiver claims in the league this year (and one-third of Montreal’s band of Pitlicks), 25-year-old Rem finished the season with 37 points in 66 games split between the Canadiens and Minnesota Wild. Getting top-six minutes in Montreal, he managed 26 of those points in his 46 games with Montreal. Pitlick’s poor advanced defensive numbers and sky-high 23.1 shooting percentage are some red flags, though, and it’s hard to imagine Montreal giving Pitlick anything longer than two or three years to stay around as a depth scoring option.

Other RFAs: F Joël Teasdale, F Michael Pezzetta, F Nathan Schnarr, D Corey Schueneman, D Josh Brook, D Kale Clague, G Cayden Primeau

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Mathieu Perreault — While a stat-line of nine points in just 25 games doesn’t scream “keeper material,” there’s a solid case for Perreault to stick around in Montreal uniform. Injuries were the primary limiting factor in his ice time (including a scary eye ailment), and he was one of the team’s better two-way players in a bottom-six that got routinely caved in. The 34-year-old veteran of 708 NHL games could be let go in favor of giving more time to younger players in the system, though.

F Tyler Pitlick — Rem’s cousin, Tyler arrived in Montreal mid-season courtesy of the Tyler Toffoli trade in February. He played just 14 games as a Canadien, though, averaging under 10 minutes per game. While injuries and COVID made him unavailable some nights, he didn’t exactly play his way into a regular role. After scoring just five points in 39 games this season between Montreal and Calgary, it could be the end of the NHL road entirely for the 29-year-old.

Other UFAs: F Alex Belzile, F Cedric Paquette, F Jean-Sebastien Dea, F Laurent Dauphin, F Lukas Vejdemo, D Louis Belpedio, D Sami Niku, D William Lagesson, D Xavier Ouellet

Projected Salary Cap Space

Montreal currently stands with just under $2MM in cap space this offseason, but that number is likely to increase dramatically by the time free agency rolls around and into next season. Trade rumors have been swirling around many members of the Canadiens, and it’s likely that at least one if not all of Jeff Petry ($6.25MM cap hit), Josh Anderson ($5.5MM cap hit), and Mike Hoffman ($4.5MM cap hit) are dealt. There’s also the possibility that Price’s $10.5MM cap hit may land on long-term injured reserve.

The Canadiens are unlikely to be big spenders in free agency regardless of their cap situation, but they’ll be able to re-sign everyone they wish despite the seemingly tight financial situation at first.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Nashville Predators

at CDT | by 3 Comments

Free agency is now less than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Predators

Key Restricted Free Agents:

F Yakov Trenin – Don’t let his point total fool you, Trenin was a breakout player this past season for the Predators and one of the better stories of their year. The 25-year-old Russian winger entered this campaign without much expectation, his eleven points in 45 games in 2020-21 not exactly setting the stage for him to become an important member of the team. But that’s exactly what Trenin did, as he established himself as a full-time NHL-er and an embodiment of the team identity coach John Hynes wants to see out of his Predators. You would be hard-pressed to find an NHL-er that plays with more passion than Trenin, and his fit on a crash-and-bang line with Tanner Jeannot and Colton Sissons entertained fans in Nashville all year. Trenin scored 17 goals this year and added three playoff goals in the team’s brief four-game postseason run. While he had only seven assists all year, Trenin’s goal-scoring, energy, and penalty killing (he averaged 1:40 shorthanded ice time per game, which ranked fourth among Predators forwards) proved valuable for Nashville, and those are the qualities that will help him in negotiations this summer.

Trenin is an arbitration-eligible free agent, meaning he does have some leverage, although his negotiations with Nashville probably won’t get to the point where arbitration is needed. It’s tough to find a perfect contract comparable for Trenin because what he brings to the table is so unique, especially within the context of the Predators and the team identity they want to have. A short or medium-term deal at around a $2MM-3MM AAV would make sense, as Trenin may not want to lock himself into a deal that takes him into his thirties while he has under 150 games of NHL experience.

F Luke Kunin – Kunin ranked eighth amongst Predators forwards in time-on-ice per game, and was fifth when excluding the aforementioned Trenin-Sissons-Jeannot line, a line that stuck together and played a very specific role for most of the season. So Kunin, a 2016 first-round pick, did not spend 2021-22 lacking the opportunity to be a difference-maker and put together a productive campaign. What he lacked was the ability to take advantage of that opportunity and fulfill the promise that saw him get drafted between Charlie McAvoy and Jakob Chychrun. Kunin had only 22 points in his full 82-game season this year, and that’s despite offensive resurgences from forwards across the Predators’ top-six, players like Matt Duchene, Ryan Johansen, and Mikael Granlund, the guys Kunin frequently shared the ice with. So that leaves him in a curious position entering the offseason, where he is an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent. This was a crucially important season for Kunin, who will turn 25 next year. His inability to seize the opportunities he’s been given has raised questions over whether his future is in Nashville long-term. Kunin comes with a $2.3MM qualifying offer, which isn’t a huge amount but also not an insignificant number. While it’s possible that the Predators and Kunin enter next season together, it would not be a surprise if he was headed elsewhere this summer.

F Cody Glass – While Kunin represents a first-round reclamation project of sorts that hasn’t gone well for the Predators, Glass is an example of a first-round reclamation project that has shown promise. Glass was acquired from the Vegas Golden Knights last summer in exchange for Nolan Patrick, who Nashville was able to send to Vegas thanks to the Ryan Ellis deal with the Philadelphia Flyers. Glass, 23, was the sixth-overall pick in 2017 and had been a lethal junior scorer, but his professional career had been derailed by injuries and inconsistency. The Predators likely believed that a change of scenery was what Glass needed, and they may have been right. Glass has thrived since the trade. He led the AHL Milwaukee Admirals in scoring with 62 points in 66 games and even earned a brief NHL call-up. A short, cheap extension for Glass makes the most sense for this season, as the Predators will definitely want to see if he can finally stick in the NHL full-time before beginning to think about any possibility of a long-term deal.

Other RFA’s: F Matt Luff, F Jimmy Huntington, F Thomas Novak, F Cole Smith, D David Farrance, G Devin Cooley

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Filip Forsberg – Right now, it seems as though the Predators’ offseason is entirely centered around what happens with Forsberg and his next contract, and GM David Poile seemed to acknowledge as much in his comments today. Forsberg is among the Predators’ most important players. A highly-skilled offensive dynamo, Forsberg had a career year this past season, scoring 84 points in 69 games. He’s the Predators’ all-time leading goal-scorer and means so much to the organization both on and off the ice. But a deal has yet to be completed, and the team and player are reportedly far apart in their negotiations, paving the way for a departure. The Predators pay their captain, Roman Josi, just over $9MM AAV on his long-term deal. It’s definitely possible that the Predators simply do not want anyone on their books with a higher cap hit than Josi, and it’s also definitely possible that Forsberg believes he can earn a bigger contract than that on the open market. Fellow play-driving left winger Artemi Panarin got over $11MM AAV to sign with the New York Rangers, so perhaps Forsberg is eyeing a similar mega-deal. From the Predators’ perspective, it will be extremely hard to find a player who can replace Forsberg at a cost that won’t be significant in either dollars or assets, so in order to keep their core intact, they might need to pay more for Forsberg than they’d like to. This is a high-stakes, high-pressure situation, and one that will have a major ripple effect on the entire Predators franchise, regardless of the outcome. 

D Matt Benning – Benning, the nephew of former Vancouver Canucks GM Jim Benning, quietly had a decent season in 2021-22. His offense isn’t why he’s in the NHL, and he had only 11 points in 65 games, but when he got into the lineup he provided steady, responsible play at a reasonable price. Benning ranked third among Predators defensemen in shorthanded ice time per game and showed versatility in where he could be played within the lineup. With Mattias Ekholm and Josi’s pairings set in stone for most of the year, Benning managed a rotating cast of partners on the team’s bottom pairing and the Predators acquired Jeremy Lauzon from the Kraken in part to ease his defensive burden. Benning cost $1MM against the cap last year and could likely be had on a similar deal for next season.

Other UFA’s: F Nick Cousins, D Ben Harpur, G David Rittich, F Brayden Burke, F Rocco Grimaldi, F Kole Sherwood, D Alex Biega, D Jeremy Davies

Projected Cap Space:

The Predators are projected to have just above $21MM in open cap space this summer, a healthy amount for a playoff team with as many veterans as the Predators have. A new extension for Forsberg will take a chunk of that cap space, and a possible extension for Trenin is of note as well. But with players such as Josi and Juuse Saros, two players who are among the best in the NHL at their position, locked into contracts and other veteran difference-makers such as Duchene, Johansen, and Granlund also under contract for the foreseeable future, the Predators to have room to maneuver in this offseason’s market.

Obviously, any plan they have will start with Forsberg, but if he does end up walking, the Predators will have a stockpile of cap space in a flat-cap league where having space is at its most important. They still have extensions for Jeannot and Phillip Tomasino on the horizon, so they can’t be reckless. But even with those future negotiations in mind, Predators have a world of possibilities open to them this summer. So while the fate of the Predators’ most skilled forward is uncertain, the ability of Poile and the Predators to be a major player this offseason is not.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Toronto Maple Leafs

at CDT | by 12 Comments

With the offseason in full swing aside from the two teams in the Stanley Cup Final, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Another year, another first-round exit for the Maple Leafs, who were kicked out of the postseason by the defending champs. Sure, you could argue that they were closer to defeating the Lightning than either of the other two teams in the east that had the unfortunate task of trying to snap Tampa Bay’s streak but it doesn’t really matter at this point. The simple fact is that Toronto hasn’t won a playoff series in nearly two decades and all efforts this summer will be made to change that.

Figure Out The Goaltending

Right now, the Maple Leafs have three goaltenders under contract for next season. Petr Mrazek, Erik Kallgren, and Joseph Woll. That’s not exactly what someone would call championship depth in net. Mrazek is signed for two more years at $3.8MM and did not impress in his first go-round with the team, leading some to believe they’ll find a way to get rid of his contract this summer.

But the big question mark is Jack Campbell, who did an admirable job during his relatively short time in Toronto but may have priced himself out of their range. If the 30-year-old is looking to cash in on his first real chance at a lucrative multi-year contract, it’s hard to see how it will be with the Maple Leafs, unless they can find a way to clear up some other room. Even if they did move Mrazek’s money out and bring back Campbell, is the Kallgren-Woll duo enough depth behind him?

Add Youth To The Bottom-Six

With Ilya Mikheyev and Colin Blackwell both unrestricted free agents, Pierre Engvall and Ondrej Kase restricted free agents (who are both trade or even potentially non-tender candidates, because of the threat of arbitration), and Jason Spezza now in the front office, it could be a very different look at the bottom of the Maple Leafs’ lineup next season.

Deciding how many spots the team will leave open for competition among the younger players in the organization is a huge decision and one that could drastically backfire if they aren’t able to make the jump to the NHL full-time. Nick Robertson (20), Alex Steeves (22), Curtis Douglas (22), Nick Abruzzese (23), Pontus Holmberg (23), Joey Anderson (24), and others are potential options there, though they each come with very different skillsets.

With the cap squeeze coming in other areas, the team desperately needs some of these entry-level contracts (or minimum deals in Anderson’s case) to start paying off upfront.

Solve The Sandin Problem

When the Maple Leafs re-signed Mark Giordano to a hometown discount quickly after the season ended, the question immediately emerged: where is Rasmus Sandin going to play? The team now has Giordano, Morgan Rielly, and Jake Muzzin all entrenched on the left, while Sandin has struggled in his short time trying to play his off-side.

The 22-year-old is a restricted free agent for the first time and will need a new contract, but also some clarity on where exactly he fits into the picture for next season. Many fans have suggested a Muzzin trade to clear room for the younger Sandin but the veteran holds a full no-trade clause until next summer, so there would be complications even if the team did decide they wanted to move on–which isn’t clear anyway.

Given that they also have question marks on the right side with Justin Holl’s up-and-down season and Timothy Liljegren’s inexperience, how the Maple Leafs’ defense pairings shake out is a complete unknown at this point.

Find A Second-Line Left Winger

It may seem like a non-issue for a team that had no trouble scoring goals this season but the second-line duo of John Tavares and William Nylander often struggled to find chemistry with a rotating cast of left-wingers (and each other at times). With Mikheyev, perhaps the most natural fit there, likely moving on due to his open market price tag–Chris Johnston of TSN noted that the Russian UFA is looking for somewhere between $4-5MM on a per-year basis–it’s hard to see who will step into that void from the internal options.

Alexander Kerfoot has at times found success in the top-six but is really more of a third-line option, while a young skilled player like Robertson may not yet be ready. A free agent signing could be in the cards if the team can find some extra cash.

One thing that may play into the decision, however, is the emergence and development of prospect Matthew Knies. The second-rounder exploded this season with the University of Minnesota and played at the Olympics for Team USA. Knies is headed back to school for 2022-23 but could be an option for the Maple Leafs’ top-six as early as next spring, meaning any multi-year free agent move could create a logjam moving forward.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Pro Hockey Rumors is not affiliated with National Hockey League, NHL or NHL.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

scroll to top