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Free Agent Focus: Columbus Blue Jackets

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Free agency is now less than two weeks away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Columbus Blue Jackets.

Key Restricted Free Agents:

F Emil Bemstrom – A fourth-round pick in 2017, Bemstrom had a strong debut in 2019-20, putting up 10 goals and 10 assists in 56 games for Columbus seeing just over 12 minutes a night of ice time. However, after his debut, he was limited to just 20 games in 2020-21, where he tallied only five points and didn’t fair much better this season, having 11 points in 41 games. Concerning as the bit of regression is for Bemstrom, he does have two things on his side: Columbus’ transitioning period as they search for talent to move forward with, and age, at just 23-years old. Because of those factors, Bemstrom is a likely candidate to be brought back into the fold with the Blue Jackets and have a chance to prove himself, but it may not be for much more, or even as much as, the $925K AAV he had on the ELC that is set to expire.

F Patrik Laine – The Blue Jackets don’t have too much in the way of free agents this offseason, but they do have one of the most discussed RFAs of the summer in Laine. After Laine held out in the summer of 2019 and was eventually traded from the Winnipeg Jets, Columbus fans might fret about their team’s ability to get a deal done with the winger, but not to worry, as The Athletic’s Aaron Portzline reports, the two sides are speaking regularly and amicably with the goal of a long-term extension for the Finnish sniper in mind. Having concluded a one-year, $7.5MM contract that saw Laine become a point-per-game player for the first time in his career, albeit in just 56 games, the 24-year-old is due for a raise, especially if the Blue Jackets would like to keep him around for the long haul. Fortunately for Columbus, the question seems to be “how much” and not “can it happen?” A long-term extension with Laine would, most importantly, provide the retooling franchise with a cornerstone player for it’s next build locked in at a guaranteed rate for years to come, making future decisions easier and more predictable.

D Adam Boqvist – One of the more exciting prospects in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft, Boqvist was selected eighth-overall by the Chicago Blackhawks and was later traded to the Columbus Blue Jackets as one of the centerpieces of the Seth Jones trade. Though Boqvist has certainly not been bad in his young career, he has yet to reach the heights projected for him by many. His most complete season to date came in 2021-22, where the defenseman had 11 goals and 11 assists in 52 games. Still, as his been the story for much of his professional career, Boqvist missed significant time with injury. There’s no question the Swede will return to Columbus and aim to be a significant contributor if healthy, but he won’t see the massive extension given to fellow 2018 selection Quinn Hughes or the one due to Noah Dobson.

D Nick Blankenburg, D Gabriel Carlsson, F Trey Fix-Wolansky, F Kevin Stenlund

Key Unrestricted Free Agents:

The Blue Jackets are in an interesting position, with no significant UFAs to deal with this offseason. Of the names listed below, only Harrington and Berube played in the NHL this year, each only playing in a handful of games. Those two as well as Sikura could be candidates to be re-signed as depth for the NHL club and to round out the Cleveland Monsters AHL lineup, with Gerbe and Rinaldo not having played since the 2020-21 season. Johnson is an intriguing name, having been serviceable in 20 games in the AHL this season, he was phenomenal for the Florida Everblades of the ECHL, helping the team win the Kelly Cup.

Despite the lack of key UFAs, Columbus could look ahead to a pair of UFAs to-be in forward Gustav Nyquist and defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov, who will both hit the market in 2023. It’s unclear what the plan for these two is in Columbus, however Nyquist has continued to produce the steady offensive output that helped him sign his current four-year, $22MM contract, while Gavrikov has established himself as a defensive backbone on the team’s blueline.

F Nathan Gerbe, F Zac Rinaldo, F Tyler Sikura, D Scott Harrington, G Jean-Francois Berube, G Cam Johnson

Projected Cap Space:

The Blue Jackets will enter this offseason with just over $19.5MM in available cap space, plenty to return all expiring contracts if they wish. Though it’s plenty, Laine’s extension, which should include an AAV higher than the $7.5MM he made in 2021-22, will take up a significant portion of that space. It’s likely the club will look at some additions to help round out the roster and perhaps help if the team is more competitive than expected, but it appears the organization will take the time to evaluate its talent and give as much time and experience as possible to younger players they want to build around, like Boqvist and forwards Cole Sillinger and Kent Johnson. One of the brightest spots for the organization is, once a long-term deal with Laine is complete, the team will still have a comfortable amount of cap space to work with, while having all of their experienced building-blocks, including Laine, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Zach Werenski, and Elvis Merzlikins, already signed long-term.

Offseason Checklist: St. Louis Blues

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With the offseason in full swing, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Blues.

2021-22 was a decent season for St. Louis.  While they finished in third in a very tight Central Division, they got past Minnesota in the first round and then took the eventual Cup-winning Avalanche to six games.  GM Doug Armstrong can afford to keep most of the core together but there will still be a lot of work to do over the coming weeks.

Decide Tarasenko’s Future

Last summer, Vladimir Tarasenko wanted a trade but coming off another season that saw him miss extended time due to a shoulder issue and a $7.5MM cap hit, there were no takers.  Seattle had an opportunity to take him in expansion and passed.  The end result was somewhat of an awkward return to St. Louis.

It’s safe to say it worked out well for both sides.  Tarasenko was able to show that he’s fully recovered from his shoulder surgeries, getting back to the 30-goal mark while eclipsing 80 points for the first time in his career.  That was good enough for him to lead the Blues in scoring, giving them a much deeper offensive group in the process.

Now Armstrong has a decision to make.  The trade request hasn’t been rescinded and there should be a much better trade market for Tarasenko’s services this time around although it’s worth noting that Tarasenko has a full no-trade clause which could come into play as well.  The fact that the commitment is only for one year will help his value in a cap environment where it’s difficult to move pricey multi-year contracts.  Moving him would almost certainly yield some cap savings which could come in handy this summer.

But trading Tarasenko away now would also create a big opening to fill on the Blues as teams rarely get better after trading their top scorer.  While there’s definitely a risk in potentially losing him for nothing in free agency, that has to be weighed against their current situation where they’re a team with an eye on contending next season.  The next couple of weeks is when trade activity is at its peak so if Armstrong is pondering a trade, it may need to happen sooner than later.

Re-Sign Or Replace Husso

Coming into the season, Jordan Binnington was expected to be the starter for the Blues with Ville Husso, who had a quiet rookie year, serving as the backup.  That changed in the second half of the year when Binnington struggled and Husso stepped up with a .917 SV% from the beginning of January to the end of the season.  Unfortunately for Husso and the Blues, the 27-year-old struggled in the playoffs when Binnington was injured so his season ended on a down note.  However, Husso showed enough during the season to position himself as one of the top goalies heading into unrestricted free agency this month where he’ll also be one of the younger goalies to hit the open market.

That has him well-positioned to earn a significant raise after making the league minimum the last two years.  While it’s unlikely he’ll be able to command true starter money – he has 64 career NHL appearances (including playoffs) after all – Husso could reasonably expect to get the type of top backup money that has been thrown around in recent years in free agency.  Jonathan Bernier, a platoon goalie like Husso might be best suited to be, just received a two-year deal with a $4.125MM cap hit last summer from New Jersey.  With the potential for more upside, it’s quite possible that Husso could receive more than that on the open market on a multi-year commitment.

Is that something the Blues can afford on their books with Binnington still on the books for another half-decade at $6MM per season?  Is that a price they should want to pay even if they had the money to?  If Armstrong feels that the answer to one of those questions is no, then St. Louis will be among the teams joining the annual goalie shuffle that will take place at the start of free agency on July 13th.

Extension Talks

In their summer spending planning, the Blues will need to keep in mind that three prominent forwards (beyond Tarasenko) will need new contracts a year from now so any spending this offseason could cut into what they have for contracts in 2023 (unless they sign players to one-year deals).  Once July 13th hits, contract extensions can be worked out and Armstrong will be wanting to have those discussions somewhat quickly.

Ryan O’Reilly continues to be one of the more prominent two-way centers in the league.  He consistently produces at a minimum of a 60-point pace (over a full 82-game season), kills penalties, and is one of the most prominent faceoff players in the league.  He’s not a true number one center in terms of his scoring output but prior to this past season, he averaged more than 20 minutes a game for six straight years.  With a $7.5MM cap hit currently, O’Reilly – who will be 32 when it starts – could conceivably command a similar price tag on a long-term deal, one that runs a little longer than preferred to keep the AAV down.

Then there are a pair of prominent younger forwards who will be coming off their $2.8MM bridge contracts in Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou.  Both players hit career highs across the board in 2021-22 while surpassing the point-per-game mark.  A repeat performance on either side would only push the asking price higher than it might be this summer.  At this point, barring a significant drop-off next season, both players should easily double their current price tag at a minimum.  New long-term contracts for those two basically will offset any cap savings if one of Tarasenko or O’Reilly goes unsigned a year from now.

While he’s not at the level of the other three listed here, it’s also worth mentioning that center Ivan Barbashev will also be on an expiring deal next summer and is extension-eligible later this month.  He’s currently on a $2.25MM and is coming off a 60-point season.  The 27-year-old will be unrestricted in 2023 and is currently in a position to land a significant raise of his own.  It’s less likely that he’ll be extended now since his performance was an outlier relative to his first few seasons but if Armstrong intends to keep him around, he’ll be budgeting some room for that as well.

Create Cap Flexibility

If you read through that and thought to yourself that the Blues could use some extra cap flexibility, you’re certainly not the only one who thinks that.  Looking ahead to this summer’s spending, it should also be noted that on top of Husso being unrestricted later this month, so are winger David Perron and defenseman Nick Leddy, both quality veterans.

It’s well-known that there is a mutual desire for Perron to stick around which will cut into the $9MM of cap space they have to work with this summer and likely into 2022-23’s money as well unless they can convince the 34-year-old to take a one-year deal.  Doing so would put Perron’s next contract into 35+ territory so that’s not an ideal scenario from his point of view.  Between that and needing some money for Husso or his replacement, it’s unlikely that Leddy returns although St. Louis would undoubtedly love to try to bring in an upgrade there as well.

There’s one contract that stands out above the rest in terms of an overpayment that they’d likely want to get out of and that’s defenseman Marco Scandella.  At $3.275MM for two more years, it’s not as if it’s a massive above-market contract but they can likely find someone capable of covering his 18 minutes a game for less money.  After that, however, it’s important parts of their core that might have to be moved to create that extra wiggle room.  In an ideal world, Armstrong is able to kick that decision down to next summer and delay the tough decisions for another year but they’ll need to move one notable salary off the books to have a chance at that happening.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Dallas Stars

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Free agency is now less than two weeks away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Dallas Stars.

Key Restricted Free Agents:

F Jason Robertson – The first full season of Robertson’s career established him as a key member of the Stars’ offense and earned him a quality pay-day at the end of his ELC. Robertson’s second full season, however, established him as a superstar in the NHL and not only gave him a shot at a big contract, but gave the hockey world an intriguing offseason storyline. Robertson amassed an outstanding 41 goals and 38 assists in just 74 games this season, leading the team in goals and helping put Dallas back in the playoffs. Now an RFA and soon to be 23-year-old, Robertson will have some leverage in negotiations, with Dallas presumably looking to lock him up long-term. A deal with term isn’t out of the question for Dallas, but it’ll come at a premium, as recent contract given to Andrei Svechnikov ($7.75MM AAV), Jack Hughes ($8MM AAV), and Brady Tkachuk ($8.2MM AAV) likely set the baseline for Robertson in negotiations, with the possibility to push for even more.

G Jake Oettinger – Robertson wasn’t the only one to significantly boost his value this season, as Oettinger too turned an impressive debut into an outstanding sophomore campaign. After a .911 save-percentage and 2.36 goals-against average in 29 games in 2020-21, Oettinger posted a .914 save-percentage and 2.53 goals-against average in 48 regular season games in 2021-22 before an incredible playoff performance that saw him record a .954 save-percentage and 1.81 goals-against average in a seven-game series against the Calgary Flames. Like Robertson, Oettinger should have some control of his destiny, namely the term of the contract. One comparable, at least as a base, could be Philadelphia Flyers goaltender Carter Hart, who signed a three-year deal worth $3.979MM per season following the 2020-21 season, which included two comparable seasons to Oettinger, followed by a poor 2020-21.

F Jordan Kawaguchi, F Alexey Lipanov, F Marian Studenic, D Ben Gleason, G Colton Point

Key Unrestricted Free Agents:

F Vladislav Namestnikov – A solid contributor, Namestnikov doesn’t have the star power of a Robertson, but has frequently found himself as a deadline-day asset in recent years. Coming off a season where he scored 16 goals to go with 14 assists in 75 games between Dallas and the Detroit Red Wings, Namestnikov is a proven commodity to provide secondary scoring for a competitive team. With the Stars’ need to lock up a couple of core pieces, he may be a luxury they can’t afford, but if they can replicate the two-year, $2MM AAV that just expired, an extension may be hard to pass up.

F Michael Raffl – Much like Namestnikov, Raffl isn’t going to compete for the Hart Trophy, but does provide a valuable service to a competitive team. The two-way forward is coming off a 16 point season in 76 games with a career-worst minus-19 rating, but the veteran did line up in his own end more than 70% of the time, showing the Stars’ reliance on Raffl’s defensive ability. The Austrian has never earned more than $2.35MM in a season, most recently making $1.1MM on a one-year pact, an affordable rate for his services and one, like Namestnikov, could return at the right price as a role-player in Dallas.

D John Klingberg – Perhaps the least likely to return of all players on this list, Klingberg is a well-regarded puck moving defenseman who will assuredly find term and salary on his next deal. Given the Stars cap situation with the contracts that are due, they may be priced out. Even so, the transition away from Klingberg will allow the team to give elevated minutes and responsibility to Miro Heiskanen and Thomas Harley. Still, it wouldn’t be completely accurate to say that Klingberg is absolutely on his way out, with both sides indicating a mutual desire for a reunion, but with a player like Torey Krug earning a seven-year, $45.5MM contract two offseasons ago, an extension with Klingberg may be tough to justify.

F Blake Comeau, F Joel L’Esperance, F Alexander Radulov, D Andrej Sekera, G Braden Holtby

Projected Cap Space:

Dallas will head into the offseason with a comfortable $18.56MM in salary cap space, plenty to work with, but with what figures to be two expensive RFAs. If, for argument’s sake, Robertson was to sign an $8MM AAV contract like Hughes and Oettinger a $4MM AAV just above Hart, Dallas would be left with $6.56MM in cap space. If they want to keep Klingberg, it may take letting a few names, like Raffl and Namestnikov, walk and likely another move too. On the other hand, they could bring back most players, including those two, allowing Klingberg leave, and find themselves at or just below the cap ceiling, but with little room or opportunity to improve.

Their first round defeat at the hands of Calgary was a rather impressive showing, but if the franchise wants to take another step forward, while losing Klingberg, there will need to be some improvements. One way to create additional space would be to deal goaltender Anton Khudobin, who has one more year at $3.33MM on his contract. A trade of Khudobin may cost Dallas an asset or two, but the team has all but its seventh to offer out of its 2022 class of draft picks. If Dallas can bring in a player or two, they still must be weary of their cap situation, with a raise to Roope Hintz and his $3.15MM cap hit due after this coming season.

Free Agent Focus: Detroit Red Wings

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Free agency is now less than two weeks away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Detroit Red Wings.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Filip Zadina – Once viewed as a possible top-three pick in the 2018 draft, Zadina’s stock fell a bit back then and it has still fallen since then.  His first full NHL season saw him show flashes of the upside that was enough for Detroit to pick him sixth in the draft but there were plenty of concerns about his play away from the puck and his overall consistency.  Coming off a platform year of 10 goals and 14 assists, Zadina certainly hasn’t put himself in a territory where he can command a long-term deal, nor should he want one.  At this point, what’s clear is that he’ll be receiving a bridge deal.  What isn’t as clear is whether it will be the Red Wings giving it to him or another team altogether.

D Jake Walman – With St. Louis, Walman had a very limited role when he was able to get into the lineup but that changed following his trade to Detroit at the deadline.  After that, he became a regular on the third pairing, seeing his ATOI jump from under 12 minutes a game to over 17, giving him his first consistent stretch of NHL action and he certainly held his own in that role.  Coming off a platform season with 10 points in 51 games and just 82 career appearances under his belt, Walman won’t be able to command much of a raise but he is a year away from UFA eligibility.  If GM Steve Yzerman thinks there is still some upside with Walman, a two-year deal that buys an extra year of team control is doable that could see the AAV closer to the $1MM mark after making the minimum the last two seasons.

F Mitchell Stephens – The 25-year-old was brought over from Tampa Bay with the hopes that he’d be able to grab onto a full-time role on the fourth line.  However, Stephens wound up missing 55 games with a lower-body injury and while he played in the 27 remaining games, there remain some questions as to whether or not he’s going to be a long-term option for Detroit.  He’s owed a qualifying offer of just under $814K and it shouldn’t take much more than that to give him a one-year contract and another opportunity to try to stake his claim to a full-time spot in the lineup.

Other RFAs: G Kaden Fulcher, D Olli Juolevi, D Chase Pearson

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

D Marc Staal – The 35-year-old isn’t the high-end shutdown defender that he was in the prime of his career but he still has some value as a third-pairing player that can kill penalties.  Detroit saw that last summer and brought him back to play that exact role in 2021-22 where he did a decent job.  It’s possible that the Red Wings keep him around as an insurance policy if they aren’t able to bring in a more impactful veteran on the left side of their back end.  If not, Staal should have some suitors on contending teams looking for a proven defender but in that situation, he will likely need to take less than the $2MM he received from the Red Wings this past season.

G Thomas Greiss – In his first year with the Red Wings, Greiss did well with his GAA and SV% basically matching his career averages.  In terms of a short-term stopgap, he looked like a good pickup.  However, the 36-year-old struggled mightily in 2021-22, posting a 3.66 GAA with a SV% of just .881, both career-worsts.  Was it a sign that his best days are behind him or will there be a team or two that thinks in a more stable defensive environment, Greiss could still provide a performance around the league average?  It’s possible that there is limited interest this summer but it’s also quite possible that his poor performance has resulted in his 13-year NHL career coming to an end.

D Danny DeKeyser – DeKeyser’s stock has dropped considerably in the last couple of years and he has cleared waivers on multiple occasions.  That said, his $5MM AAV made it a near-lock that he was going to pass through unclaimed so there was no risk in going that route.  The 32-year-old could still fit on the third pairing for some teams next season at a price tag that’s considerably lower and is more commensurate for that role.  However, it would be surprising to see him return to his hometown team.

F Sam Gagner – Gagner is quietly coming off a serviceable season as a depth scorer for the Red Wings, picking up 13 goals and 18 assists in 81 games while playing under 14 minutes a night with 29 of those points coming at even strength.  For a bargain price of $850K, he was one of Detroit’s better bargains in 2021-22.  Now 32, the 15-year veteran has his limitations but as an affordable depth scorer, Gagner should have a decent market waiting for him in free agency.

Other UFAs: F Riley Barber, F Turner Elson, G Magnus Hellberg, G Calvin Pickard, D Dan Renouf, F Carter Rowney

Projected Cap Space

As far as cap space goes, Detroit has plenty as they have more than $35MM at their disposal.  Their restricted free agents won’t take much off of that number which means that Yzerman has the ability to go after the top unrestricted free agents if he wants or if he feels the team led by new head coach Derek Lalonde isn’t ready to push for a playoff spot yet, the Red Wings could be a team to watch in terms of adding some assets for taking on undesirable contracts.  There will be several new faces in Hockeytown as a result next season.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Calgary Flames

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With the offseason in full swing, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Flames.

After missing the playoffs in 2020-21, Calgary had a bounce-back season as they finished first in the Pacific Division and got past Dallas in the opening round of the playoffs before falling to Edmonton.  The Flames were among the top-scoring teams in the league and allowed the third-fewest goals which is a great spot to be in but GM Brad Treliving has some work to do to keep the core intact.

Re-Sign Gaudreau

Let’s start with a big one.  Johnny Gaudreau has been a cornerstone player for Calgary for the past eight seasons.  After a bit of a quieter showing in 2020-21, he rebounded in a big way, posting career highs across the board while finishing tied for second in league scoring with 115 points; only Edmonton’s Connor McDavid had more.  If you put any stock into plus/minus, Gaudreau led the league in that category with a whopping +64 mark; for context, he was only +21 for his career heading into the year.  All of this has resulted in the 28-year-old being set to be the top free agent on the open market later this month.

That is, unless Calgary is able to stop him from getting there.  But to do so, it’s going to cost a pretty penny.  You can be sure that Gaudreau’s camp is going to point to the contract that Artemi Panarin signed with the Rangers (seven years, $11.643MM) as a valid comparable.  Considering Gaudreau has the longer track record and a more impressive platform season, it’s certainly an understandable target to strive for although he is a little older than Panarin was at the time.  Clearly, that’s not a price the Flames have been willing to meet since an extension isn’t in place yet.

At some point, Treliving will have to focus on a Plan B as having this get to July 13th without a resolution would certainly be risky.  If a new deal can’t be done by the draft, the Flames may have to entertain the possibility of flipping Gaudreau’s rights and begin shopping around for a replacement.  There’s still some time to work out an agreement but it’s something that they will need to accomplish sooner rather than later.

Re-Sign RFAs

On top of needing to re-sign Gaudreau, fellow winger Brady Tkachuk is also in need of a new contract and it’s also going to be an expensive one.  The 24-year-old is a year away from UFA eligibility, has salary arbitration rights, and is owed a qualifying offer of $9MM.  Tkachuk is also coming off of a career year, one that saw him surpass the 40-goal and 100-point marks for the first time.  That gives him plenty of leverage in discussions as if he doesn’t like what Calgary is offering, he can simply accept the qualifying offer or try his hand in arbitration to try to get a bit more than his qualifier.

Of course, a lot of what the Flames can do here is dependent on what happens with Gaudreau.  Both players could be in line for $10MM or so on their next contracts and while they have a little over $26MM in cap space at the moment, they also have to sign six or seven forwards and three defensemen with that money.  If those two take up that much of the pie, that doesn’t leave much room for anyone else.

Speaking of anyone else, the Flames have another winger that’s in line for a sizable raise in Andrew Mangiapane.  He’s also coming off a career year of his own as he put up 35 goals and 20 assists in 82 games.  Prior to that showing, his previous benchmark for points was 32.  Like Tkachuk, the 26-year-old is also arbitration-eligible and a year away from UFA eligibility.  Mangiapane is owed a $2.45MM qualifying offer but could make a case to double that in a hearing.  While he’s someone that they’d certainly like to keep around, he also might be someone they have to move if the price tag gets too high.

The other RFA of note this summer is blueliner Oliver Kylington.  He doesn’t have the track record to command the type of money that the others on this list do but after being a depth player for the first few years of his career, the 25-year-old was a regular, collecting 33 points in 71 games while averaging over 18 minutes a night.  Those are elements that look good in an arbitration filing so he will be in line for a sizable raise after making the league minimum in 2021-22; three or four times that amount could certainly be doable, further adding stress to their cap situation.

Add Defensive Depth

Right now, Calgary has just three regular defensemen under contract for next season with Kylington’s eventual signing bringing them to four.  Juuso Valimaki is signed for $1.55MM but spent the majority of the season in the minors so it’s fair to question whether he’s part of their plans for next season.  It’s quite possible that he’s shopped around to try to free up a little more salary cap space.

Meanwhile, veterans Nikita Zadorov, Erik Gudbranson, and Michael Stone are all set to hit the open market later this month with it seeming quite unlikely that Zadorov will return.  Gudbranson could be an option depending on what happens with their other free agents while Stone could return at or near the league minimum once again.  Even if he does, Treliving is going to need to add some defensive depth.

Connor Mackey is a candidate to at least be on the roster on a full-time basis so that’s one spot but the Flames are going to need to add at least one external blueliner that’s capable of playing on the third pairing and if they don’t have plans to use Valimaki as a regular next season, they’re going to need to look for two of them.  Quality role players on the back end can generate strong markets but Treliving is going to have to try to find some bargains.

Add Center Insurance

For several years, Sean Monahan was a fixture at the top of the lineup for Calgary.  However, his play has steadily declined over the last couple of seasons with injuries starting to take their toll.  He underwent hip surgery for the second straight year back in April which puts his availability for the start of next season in question.  Even if he can return, it will be difficult for the Flames to count on much production from him.  On top of that, the injury will make it next to impossible to buy out the final year of his deal, one that carries a $6.375MM AAV as he’d need to be medically cleared.  That doesn’t seem likely to happen by the close of the first buyout window next week.

Meanwhile, the extra depth players that Treliving brought in last season are all set to test unrestricted free agency in trade deadline acquisitions Calle Jarnkrok and Ryan Carpenter while Trevor Lewis is also set to walk.  Between that and the injury to Monahan, what was once a positional strength now has some questions aside from Elias Lindholm and Mikael Backlund.

Internally, Dillon Dube can play down the middle but he has been used predominantly on the wing in his career and at this point, he probably isn’t a full-time option.  Adam Ruzicka played in 28 games last season but is he ready for a full-time spot in the lineup and if so, can he play on the third line or is he better suited for the fourth?

As a result, the Flames could stand to add a pair of middlemen, one that can play on the third line behind Lindholm and Backlund and a depth center that can kill penalties in the mold of Lewis, Carpenter, or Brad Richardson (who was with the team for most of the year before finishing up with Vancouver).  The latter won’t be too hard to find but the third-line option will be trickier, especially if there’s an expectation that Monahan will be able to return at some point.  Assuming that’s the case, they won’t be able to rely on him being on LTIR and spend his cap hit on a replacement.

There’s a sequence of events that needs to happen for Calgary in the coming weeks and each of these ties back to a central theme, the salary cap.  Treliving will need to get creative to keep as much of his core together as possible while still managing to fill the holes that will need to be addressed this summer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Florida Panthers

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With the offseason in full swing, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Panthers.

In some ways, it was a year of success for Florida.  They overcame an early-season coaching change with Andrew Brunette helping to lead the Panthers to the Presidents’ Trophy.  However, they were then swept by Tampa Bay in the second round, resulting in GM Bill Zito making another coaching change, bringing in former Jets bench boss Paul Maurice.  With that change done, his focus can shift to the roster which will need some work despite finishing first in the regular season.

Add Defensive Help

Back at the trade deadline, Zito opted to prioritize bolstering his back end before getting in on the Claude Giroux sweepstakes.  Beyond Aaron Ekblad, most of Florida’s defenders are players that have largely gone under the radar with players like MacKenzie Weegar, Brandon Montour, and Gustav Forsling rounding out their top four.  The offensive production they provided was certainly top-notch but Zito wanted a defensive focus.

That led to them paying a fairly high price tag to pick up Ben Chiarot a few days before the trade deadline with an eye on giving them some more grit and a shutdown presence.  Then, when Ekblad went down, freeing up some LTIR room which opened up the ability to add Robert Hagg, another physical blueliner.

But both of those players aren’t expected back this summer as they’re likely to move on in free agency unless something changes with their salary cap situation.  As a result, the deficiencies that Zito identified still exist.  As a result, he will likely be looking to add in at least a shutdown defender that can kill penalties and take some of the defensive pressure off Ekblad.

In an ideal world, that player will also come with some team control.  Weegar and Radko Gudas are entering the final year of their contracts with Forsling and Montour up a year later.  With a prospect pool that has taken some hits and is missing several high draft picks in the years to come, a bit of longer-term stability defensively would certainly be beneficial.

Huberdeau Extension Talks

As far as picking the ideal timing for a career year, winger Jonathan Huberdeau certainly did just that.  The 29-year-old led the NHL in assists this past season with 85 while finishing tied with Johnny Gaudreau for second in the league in points with 115.  On July 13th when the new league year starts, Huberdeau will be eligible for a contract extension and he certainly made a strong case for a very pricey one.

Internally, it stands to reason that Zito will try to cap Huberdeau’s price tag at or slightly below the $10MM given to Aleksander Barkov, whose eight-year, $80MM extension signed last year will begin next season.  Even in a flat cap environment, two players with an AAV in that range can be manageable.

Meanwhile, Huberdeau’s camp will certainly be keeping an eye on what happens with Gaudreau later this month.  The Calgary winger will hit the open market this summer and is only two months older than Gaudreau.  Whatever contract he winds up with will serve as a strong comparable, especially if an extension is worked out this summer.

With one year left on his deal, Florida doesn’t have to do an extension as soon as he’s eligible; Barkov’s extension came just before the start of the regular season.  From a roster planning standpoint, the sooner a contract gets done, the better which is why Zito will likely push to try to get something done as close to the 13th as possible but this is something that could just as easily drag out into next season as well.

Find A Taker For Bobrovsky

While teams can find a way to make the cap work with two players making $10MM, it’s a lot harder with three.  Sergei Bobrovsky also carries a $10MM AAV and if Huberdeau does wind up signing for that amount on his next contract, Florida’s cap situation becomes a whole lot harder to manage.  It’s a simple process of elimination as to which one goes.  It’s certainly not going to be Barkov and if they re-sign Huberdeau, it’s not to turn around and move him.  That leaves Bobrovsky.

The 33-year-old had a bit of a bounce-back year in 2021-22, posting a .913 SV% and a 2.67 GAA in 54 games.  Those numbers aren’t elite by any stretch but they were a sizable improvement compared to his first two seasons.  Unfortunately for the Panthers, that type of performance isn’t worth $10MM, not even close.

Between this, their cap space situation, and the fact that Spencer Knight is clearly Florida’s goalie of the future, it’s clear that Zito is going to have to retain a sizable chunk of Bobrovsky’s cap hit or take a fairly hefty contract back in order to facilitate a move.  They’re also going to have to work with the veteran to find a suitable home as Bobrovsky, who still has four years left on his deal, also has a no-move clause.

It’s possible that Florida can afford to bring Bobrovsky back for next season but it will come at the expense of adding to the back end or a veteran up front.  Knight will need to start playing more so while Bobrovsky is someone they could keep around, it doesn’t mean they should.  His name is likely to be in trade speculation as a result.

Free Up Cap Space

This one certainly involves Bobrovsky but he won’t be the only trade candidate.  As things stand, the Panthers have around $4MM in cap space for four or five players thanks to the new contracts for Barkov and Carter Verhaeghe and a $3MM increase in dead cap on Keith Yandle’s buyout.  That’s doable but it would just be depth additions, not impact ones.  If they want to add an impact piece or have a shot at re-signing someone like winger Mason Marchment (or Giroux, who will cost considerably more), they need to clear some salary.

Florida will get some short-term cap relief with Anthony Duclair starting the year on LTIR.  However, since the winger is expected to return from his Achilles tear, they’ll need to have cap space to activate him midseason.  That means they can utilize his LTIR to call up a player or two from the minors and carry a full roster but they won’t be able to spend that on a more prominent replacement.

Winger Patric Hornqvist ($5.3MM) and Gudas ($2.5MM) each have one year left on their contracts and have roles that can be filled by cheaper players so at least one of those two could be on the move to free up some cap flexibility.  Hornqvist has an eight-team no-trade clause while Gudas doesn’t have any form of trade protection.  Both players have played useful roles for the Panthers but the value of some extra cap space may very well outweigh the benefits of keeping one or both of them in the lineup for next season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Free Agent Focus: Edmonton Oilers

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Free agency is now just a few weeks away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Edmonton Oilers.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Jesse Puljujarvi – A trio of top young forwards is hitting RFA status this year for the Oilers but it is Puljujarvi that will draw the most attention. Whether that is because of his draft pedigree–fourth overall in 2016–or the obvious upside that just oozes out of his 6’4″ frame, the big forward is a constant topic of debate in Edmonton. There are moments when Puljujarvi looks as though he’s taken that next step. Fourteen goals and 36 points in 65 games was a nice improvement, and his defensive ability was proven (at least through the underlying metrics). But then in the playoffs, he once again disappeared for long stretches and saw his ice time slashed dramatically.

Coming off a two-year contract and needing a qualifying offer of $1.41MM, Puljujarvi could take the Oilers to arbitration if they let it get that far. Where he fits into next season’s roster is still anyone’s guess.

F Kailer Yamamoto – The 23-year-old Yamamoto, meanwhile, experienced a nice rebound campaign this season, tallying 20 goals and 41 points after his disappointing 2020-21 performance. Undersized but scrappy, the 2017 first-round pick is also eligible for arbitration and is owed a qualifying offer of just $1.175MM. Given the team’s cap constraints, a long-term deal may be out of the question, but Yamamoto appears to have solidified his place in the top-nine, even if his two-goal playoff performance wasn’t quite up to snuff.

F Ryan McLeod – Another top pick, another uncertain future, as McLeod enters free agency for the first time without arbitration rights. The 22-year-old center scored just nine goals and 21 points in the regular season but has a blend of size and speed that can’t be easily replaced. There’s probably not ever going to be huge offensive upside–especially given the role he’ll be asked to play in Edmonton–but McLeod figures to be a regular again next season and likely take on even more defensive responsibility down the middle.

Other RFAs: F Tyler Benson, F Brendan Perlini, F Ostap Safin, D Filip Berglund

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Evander Kane – There’s no mistaking the Oilers’ interest in re-signing Kane, and from a purely on-ice perspective, it’s easy to understand why. The big winger scored an incredible 22 goals in 43 games during the regular season and then posted another 13 in the playoffs. That still led the entire postseason despite Kane playing just 15 games, showing just how important Kane could be to Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl as a potential running mate moving forward. Still, when discussing Kane it can’t be from just an on-ice perspective, as turmoil has followed him all over the NHL. Even now, his grievance with the San Jose Sharks over wrongful termination is still undecided, meaning a new contract could be delayed well past the opening of free agency.

D Brett Kulak – When the playoffs rolled around, Kulak was arguably one of the Oilers’ best defensemen, acquired from the Montreal Canadiens for a second-round pick (plus William Lagesson and a 2024 seventh). Armed with an elite defensive stick and strong gap control, the 28-year-old Kulak would be a nice fit for the third pairing in Edmonton moving forward, as long as they can get him back on a reasonable contract. Even then, perhaps the team will go in a different direction given the youth that is coming through the system by way of Philip Broberg, who should challenge for a full-time role next season, and the continued presence of veterans Duncan Keith and Tyson Barrie.

Other UFAs: F Josh Archibald, F Derick Brassard, F Colton Sceviour, F Kyle Turris, F Cooper Marody, D Kris Russell

Projected Cap Space

If you currently navigate to the Oilers’ CapFriendly page, you’ll see a nice cap space total of more than $7.1MM. Unfortunately, that is for a roster of just 15 players, meaning there is plenty of work to be done for general manager Ken Holland to fit everyone in. Just assuming the remaining eight spots are filled by league minimum $750K players it would eat up $6MM, meaning there isn’t a lot of wiggle room for improvement (or arbitration awards). Of course, with Oscar Klefbom’s contract still headed for long-term injured reserve, and at least some suggestion that Keith could retire before the 2022-23 campaign, that number could change dramatically.

Even so, with the Oilers pushing hard to sign Kane to a big contract, there still could very well be some cap casualties in Edmonton. This group pushed further into the playoffs than in years past and knows that McDavid and Draisaitl are good enough to lead them all the way. Making sure they spend every dollar effectively is absolutely crucial for Holland and his staff this summer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Free Agent Focus: Florida Panthers

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Free agency is now less than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in mid-July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  Next up is a look at the Panthers.

Key Restricted Free Agents:

F Eetu Luostarinen – Acquired in the trade that sent Vincent Trocheck to the Carolina Hurricanes, Luostarinen established himself as a quality option for the Panthers this year, scoring nine goals along with 17 assists over 78 games. This season was the 23-year-old’s third in the NHL, but only his first full season, playing 44 games in the COVID-shortened 2020-21 campaign, in addition to eight the year prior for Carolina. Now an RFA at the conclusion of his ELC, Luostarinen may not see much of a raise over his previous salary. However, with the Panthers in a difficult position relative to the salary cap, and his solid contributions last season, he may find himself in a somewhat elevated role with increased ice time and responsibility which could, if he can continue to build on his game, go a long way to his next contract.

Other RFAs: F Henry Bowlby, F Aleksi Heponiemi, F German Rubtsov, D Lucas Carlsson, G Evan Fitzpatrick, G Jonas Johansson

Key Unrestricted Free Agents:

F Claude Giroux – One of the most sought after players at the 2021 trade deadline, Giroux is now one of the most prized free agents in the 2021 class. The Philadelphia Flyers legend was dealt to the Panthers at the trade deadline where he immediately clicked with an already stellar Florida offense, producing 23 points in 18 regular season games and another eight in 10 playoff games. Giroux will have his pick of teams this summer, and should have the freedom to choose his destination based on his priority. At age 34, having just finished an eight-year, $66.2MM contract that carried an AAV of $8.275MM, Giroux won’t again see that amount of term, but a contract with a salary close to his previous may not be out of reach. The issue for Giroux, specifically in the flat cap era, will be balancing whether or not he wants to maximize the financial commitment on this contract or go to a particular situation, perhaps a team with a real chance to win a Stanley Cup. If he wants to stay with the Panthers, who figure to be one of those teams with a real chance to win the Cup, not only will Giroux have to take a pronounced discount, but the organization itself may need to conduct some roster-reconstruction to make it happen.

F Mason Marchment – Amongst the most interesting breakout players in the NHL this year was Mason Marchment, a longtime member of the Toronto Maple Leafs organization who was dealt to Florida in February of 2020 for Denis Malgin. A large, imposing, physical forward, Marchment was never a major offensive weapon until this season, where he put up 18 goals and 29 assists in just 54 games, all career-highs by a wide margin. At age 27, Marchment hits unrestricted free agency coming off not only his best NHL season to date, but arguably his best season since he debuted in the OHL in 2014-15 with the Erie Otters. Given his recent and somewhat unprecedented breakout, Marchment may have trouble finding a long-term, big-money contract on the free agent market, but his blend of physical play with offensive production should provide him with plenty of options. Though Florida will have to make some tough financial decisions, a reunion with Marchment at a lower price may make sense, giving the forward another season in the middle of a dynamic offense to show that his impressive 2021-22 was his standard, and not a fluke.

F Joe Thornton – The future Hall of Famer turns 43 on July 2nd and despite battling injuries this season has not ruled out another year in the NHL. Thornton has seemingly had several different NHL careers, most recently playing the role of a bottom-six veteran willing to do what’s asked of him. Still without a Stanley Cup, Thornton signed with the Panthers prior to the 2021-22 season in the hopes of winning his first Cup, but fell short when Florida lost in four games to the Tampa Bay Lightning in the second round. Despite decreased production the past few seasons, Thornton has played well in his role and could very well join a competitive team, including Florida, on a league minimum salary, bringing valuable intangibles to the team’s dressing room.

D Ben Chiarot – Similar to Giroux, Chiarot found himself as one of the most sought after targets at this year’s trade deadline as a reliable shutdown defenseman. Also like Giroux, Chiarot found himself traded to Florida at the deadline with a first-round draft pick going the other way. At the conclusion of the three-year, $10.5MM contract that brought him to Montreal, the 31-year-old Chiarot probably won’t find the same salary Giroux is about to on the open market, but his play for the Canadiens and Panthers, which includes 42 playoff games, should earn him at least a similar deal from a team looking for a solid and sturdy left-handed defenseman.

Other UFAs: F Noel Acciari, F Maxim Mamin, D Robert Hagg, D Petteri Lindbohm, D Markus Nutivaara, D Chase Priskie, G Christopher Gibson

Projected Cap Space:

According to CapFriendly, the Panthers enter this offseason with $3.074MM in projected salary cap space. The flat salary cap has put a number of NHL teams in a bind, meaning Florida is not alone and the limited space is understandable, however that does not make the number any easier to work with. This figure may be enough to bring back one or two of the players discussed, but won’t be enough to retain a marquee player like Giroux. Even aside from those players, Florida is likely faced with losing at least a couple of Acciari, Mamin, Hagg, Lindbohm, Nutivaara and Priskie, all of whom would have been expected to take on some of the responsibilities of those the team may already lose.

There are several options to create additional cap space, including a potential trade of Patric Hornqvist, who will be an UFA after 2022-23 and carries a cap hit of $5.3MM. Florida could also explore the trade market for former Vezina Trophy winner Sergei Bobrovsky, but it may require them to retain as much as half of Bobrovsky’s $10MM salary over each of the next four seasons, not to mention necessitating a replacement to back-up 21-year-old Spencer Knight, who has just 36 NHL games under his belt.

Offseason Checklist: Dallas Stars

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With the offseason in full swing aside from the two teams in the Stanley Cup Final, it’s time to examine what each squad will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Stars.

The Stars were able to secure the top Wild Card spot in the West this season, allowing them to avoid Colorado in the opening round.  They were close to pulling off the upset against Calgary but came up just short, resulting in a significant move behind the bench with Peter DeBoer taking over for Rick Bowness; the rest of the staff will need to be filled out.  In terms of their on-ice personnel, GM Jim Nill has some work to do this summer.

Re-Sign Or Replace Klingberg

John Klingberg’s contract situation is something that loomed over the club all season long.  While both sides have expressed a desire for him to stick around, they didn’t appear to be close during the regular season which led to what ranged from either a full trade request to Klingberg being extremely upset about the state of negotiations, depending on various reports.  At one point, his camp was given permission to speak to other teams which resulted in plenty of trade speculation leading up to the trade deadline although a trade obviously didn’t happen.

Now, the contractual situation jumps back to the forefront.  Klingberg was believed to be seeking a max-term eight-year deal with reports putting the AAV around the $8MM mark which would be nearly double the $4.25MM he had been getting for the past seven seasons.  The 29-year-old certainly has a strong case for the big jump as well.  He’s coming off a year where he collected 47 points in 74 games while only seven blueliners have more points than him over his eight-year NHL career.  He’s going to be one of the top players to get to the open market this summer.

Accordingly, Nill has a big decision to make.  Does he move close enough to Klingberg’s asking price at the eight-year term (which may not be too enticing since he turns 30 in August) or does he make other plans to replace him?  With some other big contracts on the horizon (more on those shortly), can they afford another pricey long-term commitment or would they be better off trying to sign or acquire a cheaper, shorter-term replacement?  Nill only has a couple more weeks to ponder that decision.

New Deal For Robertson

After spending most of his first professional season in the minors, Jason Robertson has quickly emerged as a legitimate top winger and in his first full year in the NHL, he provided Dallas with 41 goals (including a league-high 11 game-winners) and 79 points.  With the 22-year-old hitting restricted free agency for the first time this summer, he’s in line for a significant raise compared to his rookie deal.

Nill undoubtedly would like to sign Robertson to a long-term contract that buys out a few UFA-eligible seasons but that will be a tough task even with nearly $20MM in cap space simply because of who else needs to sign.  A long-term contract could jump into the $9MM range based on recent comparables including Minnesota’s Kirill Kaprizov (five years, $45MM) which would eat up about half of their cap space with that one and could prohibit them from keeping Klingberg in the fold or finding a similar replacement.  On top of that, Nill acknowledged earlier this month that the anticipated jump in the Upper Limit of the cap a couple of years from now could push prominent RFAs like Robertson into preferring a short-term deal.

With that in mind, a bridge contract, one that could free up enough cap room to try to take care of another pending free agent, seems like the probable outcome.  But even that will carry a high price tag.  Recent comparable players would put a deal for him in the $7MM range so the net savings compared to a long-term deal would be in the $2MM range.  With those deals, teams can get creative with the salary structure to yield a higher qualifying offer at its expiration which is something Robertson’s camp would likely push for if they go this route.  Worth noting, Robertson does not have arbitration eligibility and we’ve seen several in his situation wait until closer to training camp to put pen to paper on a contract.

Sign A Goalie Tandem

Another prominent restricted free agent this summer is goaltender Jake Oettinger.  He actually started this season in the minors but did so well after being recalled that he never went back.  The 23-year-old wound up posting a 2.53 GAA along with a .914 SV% in 48 games during the regular season and then was stellar in seven playoff contests, nearly helping them to get past Calgary despite facing an average of just over 40 shots per game.

This negotiation has the potential to be a bit of a longer one.  Part of that will be due to a lack of experience at the NHL level as Oettinger has just 77 regular season games under his belt.  Not a lot of goalies get pricey long-term deals with that limited experience.  Even if they do want to work out something on a longer-term basis, their hands will largely be tied with what happens with Klingberg’s new deal or replacement as well as Robertson’s new deals.  If both receive long-term expensive pacts, it’s going to force their hand into a short-term bridge agreement.  As Robertson’s case could take a while, that could drag Oettinger’s discussions out accordingly.

There’s also the matter of figuring out their backup goalie.  Braden Holtby had a nice bounce-back year with his best numbers since 2016-17 and while he’s not going to be considered as a top starter this summer, he could command a decent raise on the $2MM he made this season on a multi-year agreement.  Dallas might not be able to afford that.  Scott Wedgewood bounced around with three different teams this season but did well enough to be in the mix for a team that’s looking to save some money on their backup.  A one-way deal around the $1MM mark should be doable for him, giving him some rare job security in the process.

The Stars do still have Anton Khudobin under contract but after a year filled with injuries and struggles, they’ll undoubtedly be looking to get out of the final year and $3.33MM of his deal so he probably won’t be in their plans so they’ll need to sign both ends of their tandem for next season.

Hintz Extension Talks

While the first three parts of this are the biggest priority for Nill, he’s also expected to look into what a contract extension would cost for forward Roope Hintz.  Very quietly over the last couple of years, the 25-year-old has emerged as a viable top center and with a cap hit on his bridge deal of $3.25MM, Hintz has become one of the biggest bargains in the NHL.

That will change in the near future.  Hintz will enter the final season of his contract once the new league year begins on July 13th which means he’ll be eligible to sign an extension at that time.  Hintz had 37 goals and 35 assists this past season, good for career-highs in both categories but with DeBoer expected to play a more attack-oriented style, it’s reasonable to expect that Hintz could set new benchmarks in 2022-23.  If that happens, the price tag will only go up.

Hintz will only have one RFA-eligible year remaining when his current deal expires so, unlike Robertson or Oettinger, there isn’t an option to do a short-term contract to massage their cap situation.  If they can’t agree on a long-term deal, it’s possible that Hintz files for arbitration and takes a one-year award that takes him to the open market.  A long-term contract should eclipse the $7MM mark and their ability to offer such a deal may very well be determinant on what contracts Robertson and Oettinger wind up with.  When it comes to their summer spending and planning, everything is intertwined and this file, even though it doesn’t technically come up for another year, is no exception.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

PHR Mailbag: Wild, Bruins, Devils’ Draft Pick, DeBrincat, Predators, Hockey Trades, Rangers, Coyotes, Forsberg

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Boston’s offseason, discussing which route is the best to take for Nashville, candidates for ‘hockey’ trades, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in either last weekend’s mailbag or Saturday’s Detroit-specific column.

Zakis: Who will be the Wild’s primary goalie for the ’22-’23 season?

I’m going to say Cam Talbot.  While their Plan A is to re-sign Marc-Andre Fleury, with everything else they have to navigate this summer, I’m leery that they’ll be able to do so unless Fleury takes below his market value to stay there.  I expect Minnesota will have to be a bit more frugal while looking for their second netminder.  While they’re probably not going to wind up with a low-end, cheap second-stringer, I have a hard time thinking that second goalie will play more than Talbot, barring injury.

Assuming that happens, Talbot should check in around 50-55 starts, a mark he’d have reached this season had it not been for Fleury’s acquisition back at the trade deadline.  Getting that many starts will be important for him as well since the 34-year-old will be an unrestricted free agent in the 2023 offseason and playing a number one workload would certainly help his cause next summer on the open market.

Nha Trang: I’d ask “What the hell were the Bruins thinking?” except that everyone in hockey knows the answer.

MoneyBallJustWorks: Thoughts on Sweeney being canned and ending up in Vegas?

BOSsports21: Piggybacking off a couple B’s questions already – the Bruins need a teardown and rebuild. It’s not something B’s fans want to hear, but they have only a couple of good prospects and no cap room. They weren’t really a Cup contender this past year and now they want to bring in a younger coach. If you’re the GM, do you sell off as much as you can to obtain assets? I feel Pastrnak and Marchand will not be the same without Bergeron if he retires. Even if he comes back, it’ll probably only be for a year. Might as well get good value for Pastrnak and Marchand to re-stock the bare cupboard. Thoughts?

Let’s put some Boston questions together.  GM Don Sweeney’s decision to part ways with Bruce Cassidy certainly raised some eyebrows and the fact that several teams immediately pursued him indicates that his perception around the league is much more positive than it was in Boston’s front office.  Obviously, they felt the playoff underperformance was cause for concern and there has been plenty of speculation about other factors but that’s simply speculation.

There’s a good chance that whoever Sweeney hires will be his last hire as Boston’s head coach.  He’s one of the longer-tenured general managers in the league but most are only able to make a couple of coaching changes before they’re heading out the door.  As for joining Vegas when that happens, never say never, even with what I suspect was a sarcastic question.  Vegas isn’t exactly known for patience in the early going and if they struggle over the next year or two, there could be front office changes following soon after.

Boston has operated as a team that isn’t likely to rebuild, especially with the moves they’ve made in the last few years.  They don’t give Taylor Hall a four-year deal and then acquire and extend Hampus Lindholm with an eye on rebuilding.  With the injuries they’ll be dealing with to start next season, a short-term step back was at least justifiable.  But with Patrice Bergeron now expected to return, that idea goes out the window; he’s not coming back to help ease the team through a short-term teardown.  That takes the idea of potentially trading Pastrnak and Marchand (the latter of which was probably unlikely to happen anyway) off the table.

W H Twittle: If so, could a trade be built on the basis of Pastrnak for NJ’s 2022 #2 draft pick? Obviously, NJ would need to add a couple of A pieces… that may include their 2023 1st round pick and an A prospect?

Let’s get another Boston one in here.  No, I don’t believe David Pastrnak for that second selection is a viable option for either side.  But as I just noted, the Bruins aren’t bringing Bergeron back to then turn around and start selling off key players.  If that was the route they were taking, Bergeron would be hanging up his skates.  If things don’t go well during the season, that could very well change closer to the trade deadline but this type of trade certainly won’t be on the table at that time.

Moving that second pick (and potentially other assets) for Pastrnak makes little sense for the Devils either.  If they’re going to move a premium draft pick, it will be for someone in the prime of their career that has several years of team control left (either through being under contract or club control).  They’re not moving that pick for a rental player that still probably doesn’t get them into the playoffs next season.  And if I’m Pastrnak, with all due respect to New Jersey, I’m not passing up a chance at testing the market to sign a long-term contract with them.

I think people are getting a little too hyped up about the idea of New Jersey moving this draft pick.  They’re not shopping the it, they’re simply listening to offers and coming up with a list of players that could make sense to trade for that fit their parameters.  Those parameters would involve club control and long-term salary cap planning, among other elements.  I don’t think there would be more than four or five players league-wide on that list.  Of those, how many will actually be available to move?  Maybe two?  If GM Tom Fitzgerald doesn’t get the perfect (and I mean perfect, not a ‘close enough’ scenario) offer, they’ll happily keep that pick.  There are more ways to get an impact player than by trading a high lottery selection.

Johnny Z: Some have the Flyers being interested in acquiring DeBrincat, what would that look like?

While I, like many, expect Philadelphia to shake things up in terms of their core forwards, I don’t think it’d be for Alex DeBrincat.  He’s under the old rule for qualifying offers so he’ll be owed a minimum of $9MM for his qualifier in 2023 although if he has another year like this one, he’ll be getting more than that.  That’s going to be tough to fit into their salary structure.

Then there’s the acquisition cost.  Chicago would undoubtedly want the fifth-overall pick and with the situation the Flyers are in, moving that pick wouldn’t be wise.  That’s their chance to get an impact, cost-controllable player to work into the lineup a couple of years from now to help offset some of their more bloated veteran deals.  I know they’re in win-now mode, but moving that pick isn’t a good idea.

There needs to be a cap element to the deal to help offset DeBrincat’s current $6.4MM AAV.  That could be James van Riemsdyk but if the Blackhawks don’t want to take that contract back, Oskar Lindblom’s $3MM deal could be an option.  Another first-round pick (their own in 2023) would need to be in there.  I could see Chicago asking about someone like Morgan Frost or Owen Tippett, former first-rounders that haven’t lit it up just yet.  There would probably be another prospect in there as well.  That’s a big package for a non-playoff team to pay, especially since DeBrincat alone probably doesn’t get them back to the playoffs.

If I’m GM Chuck Fletcher, I’d rather pay a quality pick or prospect to offload van Riemsdyk’s deal without taking money back and then take a serious run at Johnny Gaudreau in free agency.  If they did that and Gaudreau agreed to sign, they’d get a top-line winger without giving up a lot of their cost-controllable future.  But if I was Fletcher, I wouldn’t have made the Rasmus Ristolainen trade last summer either so even if I don’t think it’s a good idea, he might be thinking differently.

GBear: It’s July and Gbear has won the lottery and bought the Preds and fired David Poile. I’m bringing in Brian La Rose to interview for the vacant GM position. What moves would you make this offseason and who are you taking with the #17 pick of the draft? :)

Congrats on the big lottery win that allows you to swoop in and outbid Bill Haslam for the team.  Before I can answer though, my question to you is what’s my mandate?  Do I have the ability to do what I think is best or do you want some playoff revenue?  The two options aren’t the same.

Assuming you give me the ability to tear it down, that’s what I’d be looking to do.  I don’t think adding a piece or two to this core is going to vault them into contender status.  The Predators can keep treading water or they can take a step back and try to reload.  I’d look to leverage Matt Duchene’s season as a way to get out of his contract and take a cheaper one back.  That scenario was far-fetched last summer but a 43-goal season changes things.  Someone’s going to be desperate for a center later in the offseason and there’s an opportunity to strike.  I don’t see that being feasible for Ryan Johansen though.

I wouldn’t re-sign Filip Forsberg in that scenario and instead would use the cap space to take on a player from somewhere else, adding picks or prospects for doing so as Arizona has done recently.  Ideally, said player then would be flipped with retention at the deadline for another pick or prospect.  I’d make Mattias Ekholm available and try to leverage the lack of impact left-shot defenders available in free agency into a significant futures-based return.  With teams looking for a starting goalie, Juuse Saros could be had for a significant return; I’d be comfortable with some veteran buffers for a couple of years until Yaroslav Askarov is NHL-ready.  I’d aim for a two-year or three-year retooling so Roman Josi would stick around.  I’d want to see more minutes for Tanner Jeannot, Philip Tomasino, Eeli Tolvanen, and Alexandre Carrier to see if they’re part of the long-term plans so any cap dumps I’d pick up would be for lower roles on the roster.  Philippe Myers gets flipped for whatever the best offer is with the acquiring team getting a cap credit (a move that should be made in both win-now and sell-now scenarios).  Since this answer can’t go on forever, that’s a very quick overview of what my plan would be.

Now, if you’re telling me you want early playoff revenues, then it’s a much different approach.  Filip Forsberg gets his eight years around $8MM.  I’d target Vegas to try to add Nicolas Roy, giving the Preds a third center with some upside.  He’s a strong offer sheet target with their cap situation so this could be a chance to add to the position without the return being super high.  Andre Burakovsky would be a target to add on the wing to provide a two-way element while still boosting the scoring potential of the second line, shifting some of those younger players onto the third line to really balance out the attack.

On defense, I’d like someone like Josh Manson to shore up the back end but so would a lot of other teams.  I’d go into the upper $4MM range for his services which might not be enough to get it done.  Ideally, a physical shutdown defender that can take some pressure off the younger players and deepen the back end is the target.

The only reason there’s enough cap space to do all of this is the goaltending.  I’d use Connor Ingram as the backup for Saros over.  I think he has legitimate NHL upside and sneaking him through waivers isn’t going to happen.  His $758K cap hit provides some extra cap flexibility to upgrade an extra spot on the roster and I’d rather put money towards an every-game player over someone who probably is only going to play 20-25 times since there isn’t a big difference between Ingram and a $2MM to $3MM backup.  Those additions should be enough to keep the Preds in the playoff hunt for the next couple of years and perhaps even win a round and from there, you never know what can happen.

It’s hard to forecast who’s going to be available with the 17th pick but someone like Denton Mateychuk fits as someone in that range.  He’s a bit undersized but is a good offensive defenseman and adding someone to take some pressure off Josi when he slows down would help.  A center would be preferable though given the state of their prospect pool so Marco Kasper would also be high on my list.  He hasn’t looked out of place in the SHL and there’s a good defensive floor to work with.  I think there’s second-line upside with the offensive and a two-way top-six center would be a nice addition in the middle of the first round.

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